AFF**

uniqueness

brazil leadership low

generic
Brazil soft power is terminally screwed
Casanova and Kassum, ! PhD, Senior Lecturer of Management, Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, A D MA in !nternational "elations, !nde#endent Consultant, !nternational $conomic "elations, %uenos Aires &Lourdes A D Julian, June ', ()*+, ,-rom Soft to .ard Po/er0 !n Search of %ra1il2s 3inning %lend,4 ! S$AD, ///5insead5edu6facultyresearch6research6doc5cfm7did8'(9):;66.ensel < 3ea= s#ots in %ra1il2s soft #o/er < < %ra1il2s soft #o/er matri> does, ho/ever, have a num?er of /ea= s#ots /hich may over time undermine the country2s credi?ility and attractiveness in the eyes of the /orld5 A first /ea=ness is the quality of education, a =ey factor of #restige in today2s =no/ledge economy5 %ra1il is the only %"!C country not to have any universities listed in the to# *)) of the /orld2s ma@or university ran=ings5 !ts largest and most re#uta?le university, the University of Sao Paolo, ran=ed only *+Ath in the ()*(B()*+ edition of the CS 3orld University "an=ing5 Dhe degree of internationali1ation of %ra1ilian universities and the #resence of %ra1ilian students a?road are also very lo/5 !n ()**, there /ere a mere A,))) %ra1ilians on US cam#uses, com#ared /ith (E),))) Chinese and !ndian students5 Do reverse this trend, the government of %ra1il launched a #rogram called ,Science 3ithout %orders4 in July ()**, /hich #rovides scholarshi#s to %ra1ilian undergraduate students for one year of study in US universities in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics5< < %ra1il2s glo?al #ro@ection also suffers from a num?er of domestic problems /hich continue to ?light society and damage the country2s glo?al image5 Des#ite considera?le #rogress in reducing crime in recent years, %ra1il2s murder rate remains more than four times higher than in the United States5 Dhe /ave of homicides that follo/ed a #olice stri=e in Salvador in -e?ruary ()*( suggests that the #ro?lem of ur?an violence runs dee# and could ta=e years to ?e resolved5< < Corruption is another ill often associated /ith %ra1il5 Graft scandals involving %ra1il2s #oliticians and ?usinesses have ?ecome so freFuent that they triggered a /ave of #o#ular #rotests across %ra1ilian cities throughout ()**5 Dhe country may, ho/ever, ?e in a #osition to turn this longB standing /ea=ness into a strength5 !n August ()*(, the %ra1ilian Su#reme Court o#ened /hat many descri?e as the ?iggest corru#tion trial in %ra1il2s history5 Dhe trial, /hich is to loo= into a cashBforBvotes scheme involving +E officials from the former Lula administration, has ?eing hailed as a sign of #olitical health in a country that has long ?een marred ?y im#unity5

"" econ
#o Brazil rise$internal issues %otero and Armi&o, ' Sotero is the director of the %ra1il !nstitute of the 3oodro/ 3ilson
!nternational Center for Scholars and Armi@o is an inde#endent research #rofessional at Portland State University and holds a Ph5D5 from UC %er=eley in Political Science &Paulo and Leslie $lliott, ,%"AG!L0 DH %$ H" HD DH %$ A %"!C74 AS!A P$"SP$CD!I$, Iol5 +*, o5 9, ()):, ##5 9+B:), Google Scholar;66.AL Dhe contradictory trends of loss of com#etitiveness com?ined /ith gains on the social front have fed an intense and /ideBranging national de?ate am#lified ?y an o#en and com#etitive media that =ee#s the core economic and #olitical choices confronting the country highly visi?le5 Dhere is an am#le and gro/ing societal consensus on many of the essential ,structural4 reforms that %ra1il still must confront0 the gro/ing cost of the #u?lic sectorJ the #oor Fuality of #u?lic educationJ the unfairness and lac= of eFuity in the social security systemJ %ra1il2s high ta>ation &around +A #ercent of GDP;, /hich even leftBleaning President Lula has descri?ed as ,#unishing to investorsJ4 and other issues that limit %ra1il2s #ros#ects at home and com#etitiveness in the /orld economy5 Dhe difficulty in finding solutions derives in large measure from the nature of democratic life, made dysfunctional at times in %ra1il ?y a #olitical system ?uilt to #rotect the #rivileges of the #o/erful in a still very uneFual and un@ust society5 !n common /ith the other three %"!Cs countries considered in this volume, %ra1il2s future status in the international system thus de#ends crucially on ho/ /ell the country2s leaders manage its domestic challenges5 !n %ra1il these challenges are over/helmingly ones of economic management5 Hnly if they are met /ill %ra1il #lay a glo?al role in the t/entyBfirst century5

#o Brazilian growth (inde et al ! B Associate Professor at "os=ilde University and mem?er of the !nternational
Develo#ment "esearch Grou# in the De#artment of Society and Glo?ali1ation &%irger S=ydsgaard, /ith Pernille van Kleef, Phili## StLnder, Sander S#echt and Simon .@orth, ,Glo?al %ra1il and the Political $conomy of the %ra1ilian Model,4 January (nd, ()*+, htt#066rudar5ruc5d=0M)M)6handle6*M))6A:*9 .o/ever recently, %ra1il2s #ros#ects ?ecame shallo/ again5 After three years of a sluggish /orld economy, gro/th in %ra1il is as /ell close to stagnation5 %ra1ilian #oliticians re#eatedly em#hasi1e %ra1il2s determination to #rotect its economic gains, ?e it against Me>ican or Chinese car manufacturing or against u#/ards #ressures on the %ra1ilian currency ?y US deflationary #rograms5 3hile es#ecially %ra1il2s administration coins #ortentous terms such as a looming currency or trade /ar, academia discusses controversially the challenges of the ne/ %ra1il5 "uchir Sharma, an analyst and researcher from Morgan Stanley, argues in the Journal on -oreign "elations that ,%ra1il2s consumer ?oom has ?een driven ?y income from commodity sales4 to China &()*(0M:;5 Since, he e>#ects Chinese gro/th and resource demand to dro# during the ne>t years, he concludes that %ra1ilian de#endence on these e>#orts /ould #ut an end to %ra1il2s ?oom5 .is de?ata?le claim caused several res#onses, /hich concluded that his analysis ignores the central role of #olitical and economic sta?ility for the consumer ?oom5 Moreover, it does not account for #rogress made in addressing domestic challenges over the last decade, these factors are seen as sta?ili1ers for the %ra1ilian economy that /ould ma=e it less vulnera?le than Sharma suggests &H2 eil N La##er ()*(;5 Loo=ing into the de?ate, the o?server /onders ho/ %ra1il arrived at its current #osition and /hat sha#ed the %ra1il of the (*st century7 -urthermore, %ra1il is infamous for a set of challenges, that ma=es #roduction in %ra1il relatively e>#ensive and is routinely critici1ed ?y 3estern o?servers as results of the #rioriti1ation on /elfare s#ending, /hich #uts %ra1il into an inferior #osition among emerging

mar=ets &Sharma ()*(;5 Particularly, lac= of s=illed la?or, underdevelo#ed infrastructure and high la?or costs are ?lamed to harm %ra1ilian com#etitiveness5 Dhus, this #a#er as=s to /hich e>tend these o?stacles challenge %ra1il2s gro/th #ers#ectives and in ho/ far these challenges are structural #ro?lems of the %ra1ilian state5

"" social
Alt cause to decline ) *orld Cup and +lympics, and corruption ,istovic, - Master2s Student, Pu?lic Di#lomacy, Annen?erg School of Communication, University of Southern California, "esearch !ntern, Center on Pu?lic Di#lomacy, University of Southern California &Ale=sandra, A#ril6May ()*(, ,%ra1il2s Soft Po/er and Dilma2s Dilemma,4 PDi Monitor Iolume +, !ssue 9, Center on Pu?lic Di#lomacy, University of Southern California, htt#066usc#u?licdi#lomacy5org6inde>5#h#6#dinOmonitor6article6?ra1ilsOsoftO#o/erOandOdilmasOdil emma6;66.ensel As the host of ?oth the ne>t foot?all 3orld Cu# in ()*9 and the Hlym#ic Games in ()*E, %ra1il has an o##ortunity to sho/ the /orld the vitality of its emerging power in an area a?out /hich it is #assionate B s#orts5 Dhe decisions to a/ard the events to %ra1il, /hich /ere /on ?y the government of former President Lui1 !nPcio Lula da Silva, mar=ed a diplomatic tour de force for the country5 %ut recent negative media attention B highlighting -!-A2s fear that the stadiums /on2t ?e ready in time for the games B sho/s that convincing the /orld of your #ro/ess is not enough, one must successfully host the events5 Dhis #ast year2s corruption scandals among President "ousseff2s high ran=ing officials, first %ra1il2s S#orts Minister and then the head of the %ra1ilian foot?all confederation this #ast March, are #artly to ?lame for the delay5 Although most of the *( stadiums are on schedule, many are over ?udget and ?eing constructed on ta>#ayer ta?s5 !t remains to ?e seen if the e>#osed challenges of e>ecution are sym#toms of a larger #ro?lem of underdevelo#ment and /hether %ra1il2s forthcoming s#ort di#lomacy initiatives /ill have a #ositive longBterm im#act on the #o#ulation5

"" oil
Brazil.s /etrobras failure has led to leadership collapse and 01%1 reemergence ,omero, ! %ra1il ?ureau chief for Dhe e/ Qor= DimesJ ?raduated /ith honors from
.arvard College /ith a degree in .istory and Literature &Simon "omero, March (Eth, ()*+, New York Times ,Petro?ras, Hnce Sym?ol of %ra1il2s Hil .o#es, Strives to "egain Lost S/agger,4 +6(E6*+, htt#066///5nytimes5com6()*+6)+6(:6/orld6americas6#etro?rasB?ra1ilsBoilBgiantB strugglesBtoBregainBlostBs/agger5html7#age/anted8allNOr8);66J$S "!H D$ JA $!"H R %ra1il2s oil #roduction is falling, casting dou?t on /hat /as su##osed to ?e an oil ?onan1a5 !m#orts of gasoline are rising ra#idly, e>#osing the country to the /hims of glo?al energy mar=ets5 $ven the nation2s ethanol industry, once envied as a model of rene/a?le energy, has had to im#ort ethanol from the United States5 .alf a decade has #assed since %ra1ilians cele?rated the discovery of huge amounts of oil in dee#Bsea fields ?y the national oil com#any, Petro?ras, trium#hantly #ositioning the country to surge into the to# ran=s of glo?al #roducers5 %ut no/ another =ind of energy shoc= is unfolding0 the colossal com#any, long =no/n for its might, is losing the race to =ee# u# /ith the nation2s gro/ing energy demands5 Saddled /ith a nationalist mandate to ?uy shi#s, oil #latforms and other eFui#ment from lethargic %ra1ilian com#anies, the oil giant is no/ facing soaring de?t, ma@or #ro@ects mired in delays and older fields, once #rodigious, that are yielding less oil5 Dhe undersea ?ounty in its gras# also remains devilishly com#le> to e>#loit5 o/, instead of sym?oli1ing %ra1il2s rise as a glo?al #o/erhouse, Petro?ras em?odies the sluggishness of the nation2s economy itself, /hich, after racing ahead at :5' #ercent in ()*), slo/ed to less than * #ercent last year, ecli#sed ?y gro/th in other Latin American nations li=e Me>ico and Peru5 Until recently, Petro?ras /as second in value only to $>>onMo?il among #u?licly traded energy com#anies5 %ut its fortunes have tum?led to the #oint that it is no/ /orth less than Colom?ia2s national oil com#any5 Dhat fall has accentuated an increasingly ?itter de?ate here over PresidentDilma "ousseff2s attem#ts to use Petro?ras to shield the %ra1ilian #o#ulation from the nation2s economic slo/do/n5 ,Petro?ras /as once thought indestructi?le, ?ut that is no longer the case,4 said Adriano Pires, a #rominent %ra1ilian energy consultant5 ,Petro?ras is no/ a tool of shortBterm economic #olicy, used to #rotect domestic industry from com#etition and fight inflation5 Dhis disastrous #rocess /ill intensify if it is not reversed54 Ms5 "ousseff, li=e her #redecessor and #olitical mentor, Lui1 !nPcio Lula da Silva, has relied heavily on state com#anies li=e Petro?ras to create @o?s and s#ur the economy5 As a result, the #resident and her to# advisers argue, unem#loyment remains near historic lo/s, an a##roach in economic management that contrasts shar#ly /ith $uro#e and the United States5 !n a recent s#eech, Ms5 "ousseff e>#lained that her government2s #riority /as lifting millions of %ra1ilians out of #overty5 ,Dhose ?etting against us,4 she /arned, ,/ill suffer serious financial and #olitical losses54 %olstering Ms5 "ousseff2s a##roval ratings going into a #residential election in ()*9, Petro?ras is ?uilding ne/ refineries, #ursuing offshore oil and ?uying most of its eFui#ment from %ra1ilian com#anies, all of /hich have created tens of thousands of @o?s and delivered some tangi?le #olitical ?enefits5 ,My life is ?etter,4 said Adinael Soares Silva, +M, a /elder at a Petro?ras refinery under construction in !ta?oraS, a city near "io de Janeiro5 .e said he /as #leased /ith his salary of a?out TM)) a month5 ,3here ! /as, ! didn2t have enough to have a savings account,4 he said5 , o/ ! do54 %ut /hile Petro?ras has hel#ed =ee# %ra1il2s unem#loyment lo/, around '59 #ercent, a gro/ing chorus of critics #oints to the o?vious #ro?lems at the com#any, including its ?ac=log of #ro@ects and an ina?ility to satisfy the country2s thirst for oil, forcing it to im#ort foreign gasoline and sell it at a loss5 After %ra1il made its dee#Bsea oil discoveries in ()):, the government #ushed to #ut Petro?ras firmly in control of the ne/ areas, a move that critics say could strain the com#any

even further5 !t /as a mar=ed de#arture from the *AA)s, /hen authorities ended Petro?ras2s mono#oly as #art of a radical restructuring of the economy5 Petro?ras remained under state control ?ut /as e>#osed to mar=et forces, emerging as a hy?rid nim?ly com#eting /ith foreign oil com#anies5 Doday, Petro?ras seems far less nim?le5 !n ()*(, its #roduction fell ( #ercent, the first such decline in years5 Dhe international energy industry is also changing, es#ecially in the United States, as momentum shifts to/ard e>tracting oil and natural gas from onshore shale formations5 %ra1il is thought to have large shale reserves itself, ?ut the government remains focused on its costly dee#Bsea mega#ro@ects5 23he 0nited %tates is redrawing the global petroleum map, /hile in %ra1il eu#horia has given /ay to inertia,4 -olha de SUo Paulo, one of %ra1il2s most influential ne/s#a#ers, said in a recent editorial5 Com#ounding matters, %ra1il2s
demand for gasoline surged a?out () #ercent in ()*(, reflecting a carBmanufacturing industry that has ?oomed #artly as a result of government efforts to lift #roduction5 Petro?ras still lac=s enough refineries a?le to #rocess crude oil,

forcing it to ?uy increasing amounts of gasoline from a?road5 And it is still losing money on gasoline im#orts as the government =ee#s domestic fuel #rices relatively lo/, to =ee# inflation from accelerating in a slo/Bgro/ing economy5 $nergy analysts contend that the government is using Petro?ras to further its o/n #olitical o?@ectives5 Ms5 "ousseff2s administration, for instance, has he/ed to measures aimed at reviving the country2s shi#?uilding industry, ?y reFuiring Petro?ras to ?uy many of its shi#s and oil #latforms from %ra1ilian shi#yards5 %ut these ventures have struggled /ith large cost overruns of their o/n, sometimes delivering vessels late or not at all, cutting into Petro?ras2s ho#es of meeting am?itious #roduction targets5 Dhen there are the delays at oil refineries under construction5 Hne such com#le>, in Pernam?uco State, /as conceived in ())' as a /ay for %ra1il to forge closer #olitical ties /ith oilBrich Iene1uela5 $ight years later, Iene1uela has yet to invest in the
#ro@ect, /hich has faced various delays as Petro?ras shoulders the entire cost of ?uilding it5

soft power inev

%oft power is inevitable ) *orld Cup and +lympics (eahy, ! %ra1il ?ureau chief, -inancial Dimes &Joe, -e?ruary ((, ()*+, ,%ra1il0 the first ?ig
VsoftV #o/er,4 -inancial Dimes, ProCuest;66.ensel !t is a %ra1il /hose glo?al standing has rarely ?een higher5 !ts agriculture feeds the #lanet5 < !t has good relations /ith virtually every country in the /orld, from the US to orth Korea5 !t has cur?ed, though not yet halted com#letely, the destruction of the Ama1on5 And it is #re#aring to host the 3orld Cu# ne>t year and the Hlym#ics t/o years later B a feat fe/ countries have ever attem#ted5< !f the games are successful B /hich they #ro?a?ly /ill ?e, des#ite %ra1ilVs re#utation for having a very rela>ed attitude to #lanning B they /ill hel# seal the country4s image globally as one of the /orldVs emerging #o/ers5 ot a military #o/er, ?ristling /ith missiles and trou?led ?y messy ?order dis#utes li=e China or !ndia, ?ut the first ?ig WsoftW #o/er, a =ind of Canada /rit large ?ut /ith Carnival thro/n in5

brazil not pursuing lead

generic
Brazilian is not pursuing a dominant role in (atin America ) even if leadership is high, it.s won.t pursue a large role in the globe 5alamud, ) research fello/ at the !nstitute of Social Sciences &!CS; of the University of Lis?on5 PhD in Political Science from the $uro#ean University !nstitute &$U!; in -lorence5 &Andres, ,A Leader 3ithout -ollo/ers7 Dhe Gro/ing Divergence %et/een the "egional and Glo?al Performance of %ra1ilian -oreign Policy,4 LAD! AM$"!CA PHL!D!CS A D SHC!$DQ, X ()** University of Miami, MALAMUD0 %"AG!L2S -H"$!G PHL!CQ, htt#066americo5usal5es6i?eroame6sites6default6files6malamudO?rasilOleaderO/ithoutOfollo/ers5#df; 66.AL Do ?e sure, %ra1il has not ?ecome indifferent to the region5 .o/ever, its am?itions are increasingly defensive rather than offensive5 Dhe main goal is no longer to integrate South America into a regional ?loc /ith a single voice ?ut to limit damages that could s#ill over its ?orders or stain its international image as regional #acifier5 o/, it seems sufficient to sta?ili1e the region and #revent #olitical insta?ility, economic turmoil, and ?order conflicts5 Dhe name of the game is to =ee# Fuiet rather than lead the neigh?orhood, since #reventing trou?le in its ?ac=yard seems to ?e a necessary condition for %ra1il to consolidate its glo?al gains5 Given that %ra1il is not a revisionist #o/er that intends to u#set the system ?ut rather a reformist one that /ishes to enter it, damage control has ?ecome its central tas=5 Dhis has turned a /ouldB?e leader into a fireman or, as Carlos Cuenan once #ara#hrased from economics @argon, a leader of last resort5 Dhus, as Dhe $conomist &())M?; a#tly remar=ed, ,it may ?e the rising #o/er in the Americas ?ut %ra1il is finding that di#lomatic am?ition can #rom#t resentment54 %y trying to mitigate this resentment, the country may find itself closer to the category of a traditional rather than an emerging middle #o/er5 !n other /ords, it can as#ire to a leading role on the glo?al stage as long as it goes it alone5

u1s1 leadership high

generic
5aintaining hegemonic influence in (atin America is still possible ) indicators of decline are e6aggerated
7uddy, ! &Patric=, U5S5 am?assador to Iene1uela from ()): until ()*) and is currently visiting senior lecturer at Du=e University, and -ran= H5 Mora, incoming director of the Latin American and Cari??ean Center, -lorida !nternational University, and former de#uty assistant secretary of Defense, 3estern .emis#here, ,Latin America0 !s U5S5 influence /aning7J 3$SD$" .$M!SP.$"$,4 Dhe Miami .erald, '6*6*+, le>is, Dashma; As President H?ama travels to Me>ico and Costa "ica, it2s li=ely the #undits /ill once again underscore /hat some #erceive to ?e the eroding influence of the United States in the 3estern .emis#here5 Some /ill #oint to the decline in foreign aid or the a?sence of an overarching #olicy /ith an ins#iring moni=er li=e ,Alliance for Progress4 or ,$nter#rise Area of the Americas4 as evidence that the United States is failing to em?race the o##ortunities of a region that is more im#ortant to this country than ever5 Dhe reality is a lot more com#licated5 -ortyBt/o #ercent of all U5S5 e>#orts flo/ to the 3estern .emis#here5 !n many /ays, 01%1 engagement in the Americas is more pervasive than ever, even if more diffused5 Dhat is in #art ?ecause the #eo#les of the 3estern .emis#here are not /aiting for governments to choreogra#h their interactions5 A moreBnuanced assessment inevita?ly /ill highlight the com#le>, multidimensional ties ?et/een the United States and the rest of the hemis#here5 !n fact, it may ?e that /e need to change the /ay /e thin= and tal= a?out the countries of Latin America and the Cari??ean5 3e also need to resist the tem#tation to em?race overly reductive yardstic=s for @udging our standing in the hemis#here5 As Moises aim notes in his recent ?oo=, Dhe $nd of Po/er, there has ?een an im#ortant change in #o/er distri?ution in the /orld a/ay from states to/ard an e>#anding and increasingly mo?ile set of actors that are dramatically sha#ing the nature and sco#e of glo?al relationshi#s5 !n Latin America, many of the most su?stantive and dynamic forms of engagement are occurring in a /e? of crossBnational relationshi#s involving small and large com#anies, #eo#leBtoB#eo#le contact through student e>changes and social media, travel and migration5 Drade and investment remain the most enduring and measura?le dimensions of U5S5 relations /ith the region5 !t is certainly the case that our economic interests alone /ould @ustify more U5S5 attention to the region5 Many o?servers /ho /orry a?out declining U5S5 influence in this area #oint to the rise of trade /ith China and the #resence of $uro#ean com#anies and investors5 3hile it is true that other countries are im#ortant to the economies of Latin America and the Cari??ean, it is also still true that the United States is ?y far the largest and most im#ortant economic #artner of the region and trade is gro/ing even /ith those countries /ith /hich /e do not have free trade agreements5 An area of immense im#ortance to regional economies that /e often overloo= is the e>#onential gro/th in travel, tourism and migration5 !t is common#lace to note the enormous #resence of foreign students in the United States ?ut in ()**, according to the !nstitute of !nternational $ducation, after $uro#e, Latin America /as the second most #o#ular destination for U5S5 university students5 .undreds of thousands of U5S5 tourists travel every year to Latin America and the Cari??ean hel#ing to su##ort thousands of @o?s5 -rom ())EB()** U5S5 nonBgovernment organi1ations, such as churches, thin= tan=s and universities increased the num?er of #artnershi#s /ith their regional cohorts ?y a factor of four5 "emittances to Latin America and the Cari??ean from the United States totaled TE9 ?illion in ()*(5 Particularly for the smaller economies of Central America and the Cari??ean these flo/s can sometimes constitute more than *) #ercent of gross domestic #roduct5 -inally, one should not underestimate the resiliency of U5S5 soft #o/er in the region5 Dhe #o/er of national re#utation, #o#ular culture, values and institutions continues to contri?ute to U5S5 influence in /ays that are difficult to measure and im#ossi?le to Fuantify5 $>am#le0

Des#ite *9 years of strident antiBAmerican rhetoric during the ChPve1 government, tens of thousand of Iene1uelans a##ly for U5S5 nonimmigrant visas every year, including many thousands of ChPve1 loyalists5

3he 01%1 can maintain hegemonic influence ) sq policies ensure it.s sustainability
8alencia, &"o?ert, CH.A "esearch -ello/, ,After %in Laden2s Demise, Are U5S5BLatin American "elations At %ay Again7,4 Council on .emis#heric Affairs, '6()6**, htt#066///5coha5org6afterB?inBladensBdemiseBareBuBsBlatinBamericanBrelationsBatB?ayBagain6, Dashma; evertheless, President H?ama attem#ted to /arm relations /ith Latin America in the early months of his administration5 Case in #oint0 Si>ty days after ?eing s/orn in, he attended the fifth Summit of the Americas in Drinidad and Do?ago, stating that the meeting offered ,the o##ortunity of a ne/ ?eginning4 for the Americas, even e>#ressing o##osition to the military cou# in .onduras5 Most recently, H?ama eased travel restrictions to Cu?a and #lanned a tri# to South America, traveling to %ra1il, Chile, and $l SalvadorReven in the midst of the Li?yan crisis Rleading some to ?elieve that he might continue for/ard /ith his regional initiatives5 .o/ever, U5S5 commitment to Latin America /ill hardly face the ?urden of #roof in the years to come5 Dhe H?ama administration must choose /isely in their re#lacement of Arturo Ialen1uela, /ho recently ste##ed do/n as the U5S5 Assistant Secretary of State for 3estern .emis#here Affairs after a some/hat lac=luster tenure in that #osition5 !n addition, U5S5 trade deals /ith #ermanently violent Colom?ia and eternally corru#t Panama /ill ?e voted on ?y Congress and the H?ama administration in August5 Dhis /ill result in a long overdue endorsement that /ill, for many Colom?ians, seal a #ledge to 3ashington2s most strategic ally in South America5 Some of the administration2s critics argue that, almost cons#iratorially, the U5S5 is far more interested in s/ee#ing %ogotP2s human rights derelictions under the rug in order to get ahead /ith its free trade /ishes /ith Colom?ia5 !t seems as though America2s economic interests trum# its desire to carry out a good faith e>amination of Colom?ia2s chronically s#otty human rights #erformance in order to resolve the matter honestly5 Also, the most urgent issue for the United States, /hen it comes to Me>ico, Central America, and Colom?ia, is the /ar on drugs5 !n addition to the longB running Plan Colom?ia funding, the U5S5 has #ledged the dis?ursement of the Merida !nitiative ?udget, allocated for USD *5E ?illion, to Me>ican and Central American authorities attem#ting to control drug smuggling into the United States 5 !n this #ostB?in Laden era, President H?ama must not only mend fences /ith the Middle $ast and ca#itali1e glo?al efforts /ith current and emerging #o/ers, ?ut must also overcome the stigma that correlates Latin America /ith a longB ?ro=en fi>ture s/inging in the United States2 #erennial ,?ac=yard54 .e can ?egin to do so ?y e>tending a ?rand of #ros#erity and security that is more false than true, /hich /ill in turn continue to distress the United States /ith socioeconomic strife along the immediate ?orders of the region5

"" brazil
0% heg unchallenged in (atin America"China and Brazil lac9 the material power to counter the 0% Brand et al -, Ale>ander %rand is Lecturer and PostBDoc "esearcher at the De#artment of
Political Science at the University of Main15 Susan Mc$/enB-ial is Lecturer at the De#artment of Political Science at the University of Main15 3olfgang Muno is Iisiting Professor of Political Science at the University of $rfurt5 Andrea "i?eiro .offmann is Lecturer at the 3illy %randt School of Pu?lic Policy, University of $rfurt5 &)96()*(, ,%"!Cs and U5S5 .egemony0 Dheoretical "eYections on Shifting Po/er Patterns and $m#irical $vidence from Latin America4,Main1 Pa#ers on !nternational and $uro#ean Politics &MP!$P; Pa#er o5 9, htt#066international5#olitics5uniBmain15de6files6()*(6*)6m#ie#)95#df,@@; China has e>#anded its regional resource ?ase in economic terms and it has used institutional as /ell as soft #o/er instruments to smooth its /ay to/ards enhanced economic e>change5 !n terms of hegemony, ho/ever, it seems to lac= most of the ingredients to act as a< regional hegemon, es#ecially since most activities are ?oth modest in si1e and strictly tied to either narro/ economic or narro/ di#lomatic goals*:J Chinese hegemonic as#irations can hardly< ?e detected in the Latin American region5 %ra1il has es#ecially fostered institutional coo#eration and #resented itself as an alternative to the U5S5J it thus has signaled at least rhetorically< a /ill to ?alance U5S5 hegemony5 .o/ever, it lac=s the material #o/er ?ase and Fuite often < given a lot of similar #olicy o?@ectives a de facto /ill to challenge the U5S5 in Latin America as< a /hole5

lin9

u1s1 lin9

lin9 turn
(in9 3urn ) 0% intrusion allows Brazil to reassert its influence in the region %otero, : ) director of the %ra1il !nstitute of the 3oodro/ 3ilson !nternational Center for Scholars, MA in Journalism and Pu?lic Affairs from the American University, ad@unct lecturer at $dmund A5 3alsh School of -oreign Service, Georgeto/n University &Paulo, ,%ra1ilVs "ising Am?ition in a Shifting Glo?al %alance of Po/er,4 Pers#ectives on the Changing Glo?al Distri?ution of Po/er Iolume +), !ssue Su##lement s*, #ages :*M*, Decem?er ()*);66.AL Although %ra1il has ?egun to assert itself on the glo?al stage in the t/entyBfirst century, historically the nationVs /orld #ers#ective has ?een heavily conditioned ?y geogra#hy5 -rom the early years of the re#u?lic, in the late nineteenth century, the =ey foreign #olicy o?@ectives /ere the consolidation of the national territory through the #eaceful resolution of all ?order dis#utes and the #ursuit of closer ties /ith a then emerging United States5 Hne hundred years later, President Cardoso set %ra1il in a ne/ direction in regional affairs, in order to assert the countryVs autonomy /hile #ushing for integration /ith its immediate neigh?ours5 3ith the nationVs #osition strengthened ?y the legitimacy of its democratic regime and successful economic sta?ilisation #olicies, Cardoso sought to define %ra1ilVs s#here of influence ?y engaging its South American neigh?ours in a strategy of economic integration inde#endent of the US5 !n Se#tem?er ())), he convened in %rasSlia the firstBever summit of South American #residents &H$!, ()));5 Si> months later, s#ea=ing at the Dhird Summit of the Americas in Cue?ec City, Cardoso made clear %ra1ilVs sce#ticism of the continentB/ide integration #ro@ect the United States /as #romoting ?y /ay of the #ro#osed -ree Drade Area of the Americas &Cardoso, ())*, #5 +;0 Zthe -DAA /ill ?e /elcome if its creation is a ste# to/ards access to the most dynamic mar=etsJ if it is an effective /ay to shared rules on antiBdum#ingJ if it reduces nonBtariff ?arriersJ if it avoids the #rotectionist distortions of the good sanitary rulesJ if, /hile #rotecting intellectual #ro#erty, it fosters our #eo#les technological ca#acityJ and, furthermore, if it goes ?eyond the Uruguay "ound and correct the asymmetries it enshrined in agricultural trade5 !f it does not do so, [-DAA\ /ould ?e irrelevant or, in the /orse hy#othesis, undesira?le25 Lula stayed the course on regional affairs5 !n the first year of his government, %ra1il ?loc=ed further negotiations of the -DAA5 Dhe ne/ #resident, ho/ever, su?stantially changed %ra1ilVs style of di#lomacy, in favour of a more vocal foreign #olicy, reflective of his talent as a charismatic leader /ho loves the limelight and does /ell on the stum#5 !n his first tri# a?road as #resident, he said in Cuito, $cuador, that his countryVs di#lomacy /ould Z?lossom25 Lula descri?ed %ra1il as the regionVs Znatural leader2 and #roclaimed that the country /as Zready to assume its greatness2 &Ie@a, ())+, #5 EM;5 %ra1il sought to e>#and e>isting regional mechanisms, such as Mercosur, ?y #ro#osing the accession of Iene1uela, and #romoted the creation of ne/ ones, such as the Union of South American ations, the South American Defence Council and the Community of Latin America and Cari??ean States in order to #romote faster integration5 !n midB())9, %ra1il assumed the military command of the U sta?ilisation mission in .aiti, a ?old move calculated to enhance %ra1ilVs credentials as a candidate to a #ermanent seat on the U SC, according to Clovis %rigagUo &Hsava, ())E;5 Dhe regional activism of the Lula administration led his government to act to defuse the internal crisis in %olivia, after forgiving the countryVs #resident, $vo Morales, for unceremoniously nationalising Petro?ras assets in %olivia5 %ra1il e>#anded staffs of its em?assies in the region and esta?lished a total of +' ne/ ones, mostly in the develo#ing /orld5 Dhe #o/erful %ra1ilian ational %an= for Develo#ment &% D$S; ?ecame an instrument of the regional #olicy5 %y ())A, the ?an= had more than T*'5: ?illion in lines of credit e>tended to countries interested in contracting %ra1ilian com#aniesV services &%!C, ())A;5 Sur#risingly, %ra1ilVs activism in regional affairs did not e>tend to efforts to settle dis#utes ?et/een neigh?ours a #oint not lost on critics of LulaVs !ran initiative5 ZDhe !ranian adventure is incom#rehensi?le, es#ecially since there are

various conflicts closer to us /hich /e havenVt tried, or havenVt managed, to mediate2, noted S]rgio Amaral &Dhe $conomist, *: June ()*);5 !n contrast /ith the Cardoso government, /hich had, /ith the US, Chile and Argentina, successfully mediated the *AA' ?order dis#ute ?et/een Peru and $cuador, the Lula administration did not get involved in a dis#ute ?et/een Argentina and Uruguay, ?oth %ra1ilVs #artners in Mercosur, over the o#eration of a cellulose #lant on the Uruguayan side of the Uruguay "iver5 %rasSlia also sho/ed no interest in hel#ing to lo/er tensions and avoid a #ossi?le military confrontation ?et/een Iene1uela and Colom?ia, /hich ?order %ra1il5 LulaVs attem#t to ?ring Caracas and %ogota closer together in August ()*), after ChPve1 severed di#lomatic relations /ith Colom?ia, reacting to accusations of har?ouring -A"C re?el grou#s in Iene1uela, had little im#act and did not alter the mismatch ?et/een %ra1ilVs assertions of leadershi# at the glo?al level and its modest interest in assumeing the ris=s of leadershi# closer to home, /here it should have a ?etter chance of success5 Dhere are various #ossi?le reasons for the Lula governmentVs lac= of a##etite to mediate in regional conflicts5 Such dis#utes generate little interest and no #olitical dividends in %ra1il5 An amalgamation of African descendants indigenous #eo#les and $uro#ean and Asian immigrants /ho s#ea= Portuguese, %ra1ilians do not see themselves as Latin Americans5 .istorically, they have ?een Fuite distant from their immediate neigh?ours &%ethell, ())A;5 Moreover, the region is seen more as a source of #otential #ro?lems than as #resenting o##ortunities for %ra1il5 A survey of senior di#lomats, ?usiness e>ecutives, scholars and o#inionBma=ers conducted in ())* and ())M indicated decreased su##ort for #ursuing relations /ith the region &De Sou1a, ())M;5 Dhis finding suggests that South America and Latin America are generally #erceived ?y %ra1ilian elites as a #oor #latform for %ra1il to #ro@ect itself as a glo?al #o/er5 onetheless, there are a fe/ indications that suggest that the Lula government has come to see the region as valua?le to the e>ercise of leadershi# in so far as it hel#s to #ro@ect %ra1ilVs o##osition to US dominance5 -rom the early days of the re#u?lic, there has ?een an antiBAmerican strand among %ra1ilian elites5 Dhis strand is li=ely to ?e manifest in the foreign #olicy of any government of an ascendant %ra1il, the only country emerging in the United StatesVs soBcalled Z?ac= yard25 Dhe US recession and a general disa##ointment /ith US President %arac= H?amaVs timid #olicies for the hemis#here on Cu?a, trade and regional security strengthened the hand of =ey figures in LulaVs foreign #olicy =no/n for their lac= of sym#athy to the US, and reinforced a tendency to distance %ra1il from 3ashington5 !n the rever?erations of the 3all Street colla#se, in Decem?er ())M %ra1il convened a summit to launch the Latin America and Cari??ean Community of ations an event #lanned to highlight %ra1ilian leadershi# in regional affairs and underline the USVs loss of influence5 ZDhere is no Fuestion that this is a?out e>clusion, a?out e>cluding the United States2 &Peter .a=im, Fuoted in the %arrionuevo, ())M;5 Dhere /as also the illBdisguised confrontation ?et/een %rasSlia and 3ashington over ho/ to res#ond to the June ())A constitutional crisis in .onduras, #reci#itated ?y a cou# against President Manuel Gelaya5 Dhe Lula governmentVs une>#ected and ultimately unsuccessful intervention in the .onduras crisis sho/ed again that /hile %ra1il has not generally sought to assert its regional leadershi#, it has ?een more than /illing to stand u# to the United States5 (in9 turn ) we control uniqueness ) ,ousseff.s leadership style destroys Brazil.s credibility as willing to stand up to the 0% ) the plan creates an opportunity for Brazil to counter the 0% and regain credibility within the 0# ,istovic, - Master2s Student, Pu?lic Di#lomacy, Annen?erg School of Communication, University of Southern California, "esearch !ntern, Center on Pu?lic Di#lomacy, University of Southern California &Ale=sandra, A#ril6May ()*(, ,%ra1il2s Soft Po/er and Dilma2s Dilemma,4 PDi Monitor Iolume +, !ssue 9, Center on Pu?lic Di#lomacy, University of Southern California, htt#066usc#u?licdi#lomacy5org6inde>5#h#6#dinOmonitor6article6?ra1ilsOsoftO#o/erOandOdilmasOdil emma6;66.ensel

3hile %ra1il has made great strides in its #u?lic di#lomacy efforts, the transfer of leadershi# from Lula to "ousseff has changed the tone of the country2s soft #o/er5 Under Lula, %ra1il2s inde#endent voice /as o?vious0 his charismatic leadershi# successfully cultivated formal di#lomatic ties /ith every mem?er of the U General Assem?ly even /hile #ursuing an inde#endent foreign #olicy characteri1ed ?y its nonBalignment /ith 3estern #o/ers such as the United States5 Hn ta=ing office, it seemed at first that Ms5 "ousseff /ould maintain Lula2s activist foreign #olicy that sought to #lay the middleman ?et/een Asia, Africa, and the develo#ed /orld5 %ut after one year, it a##ears that President "ousseff is more inclined to agree /ith the U5S5 than /as her #redecessor5 Dhis inclination has wea9ened Brazil.s image as a country unafraid to o##ose U5S5 and $uro#ean #olicies /hen necessary5

not zero"sum
0% and Brazil competition is not zero"sum %weig, : elson and David "oc=efeller Senior -ello/ and Director for Latin America
Studies and the Glo?al %ra1il !nitiative at the Council on -oreign "elations &Julia $5, ,A e/ Glo?al Player0 %ra1ilVs -arB-lung Agenda,4 -oreign Affairs, ov6Dec ()*), htt#066///5#an1ertru##en5org6()*(6#olitica6))*5#df;66.AL Pro>imity and interests have li=e/ise com#elled the ne/ %ra1il to learn to live /ith this changed #olitical environment5 !t is unli=ely that either %ra1il or the United States /ill succeed in dominating di#lomacy in Latin America5 Hld multilateral institutions such as the Hrgani1ation of American States are struggling to recover from the distortions of U5S5 hegemony and the am?ivalence and outright defiance of some mem?er countries5 3ithout a##earing to desire leadershi# over institutions in the region, /hich could #ossi?ly induce an antiB%ra1il ?ac=lash from lesser #o/ers, %ra1il is #roceeding gingerly to ma>imi1e its interests and minimi1e conflict5 Hn some issues, real conflict /ill continue to e>ist ?et/een the United States and %ra1il5 %ut on ?alance, %ra1il is neither fundamentally antiBAmerican nor #roBAmerican5 3hile %ra1il /as challenging the United States from .onduras to Colom?ia to !ran, for e>am#le, it /as simultaneously negotiating the first defense coo#eration agreement /ith the United States since *A::, /or=ing /ith the H?ama administration to resolve a dis#ute over the cotton mar=et, and maintaining an o#en channel of communication on climate change and international economic institutions5 Dhe ?ilateral relationshi# is li=ely to hover in this undefined s#ace of neither friend nor adversary5 Dhe H?ama and Lula governments have coined the term Wglo?al #artnershi# dialogue,W a fu11y /ay of ac=no/ledging some interest in ?uilding u# layers of scaffolding around a house in the very early stages of construction5 Dhe missed o##ortunity and mi>ed signals of the !ran e#isode reflect strategic differences ?et/een the t/o countries5 %ut glo?al issues still #rovide fertile ground for them to coo#erate, es#ecially on climate change, in the GB (), through modest @oint efforts in alleviating #overty, and in treating infectious diseases in .aiti and Africa5 Dhe ?iggest and most immediate test for #residentBelect "ousseff /ill ?e to ?alance an am?itious domestic agenda /ith the need to secure %ra1ilVs international #osition5 !ndeed, %ra1il is in the cat?ird seat of glo?al #o/ers0 it can afford to moderni1e its defense and security esta?lishment /ithout ?eing forced to ma=e /renching gunsBversus?utter choices5 Do su?stantially dee#en the investments in its #eo#le BB on /hich its ne/ social contract is ?ased BB %ra1il may /ell have to lo/er its nearBterm sights regarding glo?al leadershi#5 Ultimately, the outcome could ?e the same0 a strong, selfBconfident %ra1il that ma=es a si1a?le contri?ution to #eace and #ros#erity, not @ust in the region ?ut glo?ally5 Perha#s the single most im#ortant /ay the United States can influence %ra1ilian foreign #olicy is to ma=e clear, in /ord and deed, that *ashington regards Brazil4s rise not as a zero"sum game that threatens 01%1 interests ?ut rather as the emergence of a notBFuiteBnatural, al?eit sometimes necessary, glo?al #artner5 Brazil and 01%1 influence in (atin America is not zero"sum ) empirics prove **;C%, ' &Dhe 3oodro/ 3ilson !nternational Center for Scholars, *6(96):, ,Dhe -uture of U5S5B%ra1ilian "elations4, htt#066///5/ilsoncenter5org6inde>5cfm7 to#icOid8*9*ANfuseaction8to#ics5eventOsummaryNeventOid8(*+AMA; ot a single action ta=en or decision made ?y the United States in the last three years has negatively affected %ra1ilian interests, claimed Am?assador "o?erto A?denur, ?efore a #ac=ed conference room in /hat /as his last #u?lic a##earance as %ra1il2s am?assador in 3ashington5 3hen he too= the #osition in ())9, %ra1ilian indignation /ith !raF and over onerous visa #rocedures and #oor treatment of visiting nationals had caused a tem#orary strain in the relationshi#5 Hther #otential o?stacles to strengthening the relationshi# that /ere successfully

avoided include #ossi?le trade sanctions against %ra1il over intellectual #iracy, %ra1il2s refusal to e>em#t U5S5 troo#s and officials from the @urisdiction of the !nternational Criminal Court, mutual charges of dum#ing, and U5S5 threat to removes its General System of Preferences for %ra1il&/hich /ould have negatively affected a##ro>imately four ?illion dollars of %ra1ilian e>#orts to the United States;5 Des#ite these challenges, A?denur argued that the ?ilateral relationshi# has reached an un#recedented level of mutual understanding and deference to the other country2s #ositions and o#inions, facilitated in no small #art ?y President Lula2s #ragmatism5 Des#ite the e>istence of differences, %ra1ilBU5S5 relations are on a #roductive #latform to foster #ositive develo#ments in the future5 Lula has #ut aside his misgivings a?out some U5S5 #olicies and em?raced the fact that it is in %ra1il2s ?est interests to foster strong relations /ith the United States, argued A?denur5 Much to the disdain of %ra1il, the United States has mista=enly /ithdra/n from certain international discussions and scenarios and erroneously engaged in others, such as climate change and the Middle $ast5 Additionally, Latin America is overloo=ed ?y its orthern neigh?or5 .o/ever, if and /hen the United States decides to refocus its energies u#on the region, A?denur is assured that %ra1il /ould ?e its natural ally in such an endeavor5 %ra1il has good relations /ith all of its neigh?ors and strategically occu#ies a moderate s#ace ?et/een the region2s divergent interests and tra@ectories, as illustrated ?y its leading role in the current international efforts to sta?ili1e .aiti and ?y its contri?ution to the resolution of the conflict ?et/een Peru and $cuador in the *AA)sR in ?oth cases in close coo#eration /ith the United States5 A?denur argued that the United States is not the only actor that must ta=e decisive ste#s to/ards a convergence of interests ?et/een the t/o countries0 %ra1il must sto# fearing the United States and instead em?race it as a #artner5 #o (in9 ) 7ialogues prevent u1s1 influence from being zero"sum ) 3hat means the Aff sustains energy intiatives that solve warming <oldwyn, ! B President, Gold/yn Glo?al Strategies, .ouse Committee of -oreign Affairs, &David L5, A#ril **th, ()*+ U.S. House of Representatives Document Repository ,Dhe !m#act of the Dight Hil and Gas %oom on Latin America and the Cari??ean0 H##ortunities for Coo#eration,4 .ouse Committee on -oreign AffairsJ Su?committee on the 3estern .emis#hereJ ,$nergy H##ortunities in Latin America and the Cari??ean4 htt#066docs5house5gov6meetings6-A6-A):6()*+)9**6*))E((6.."GB**+B-A):B3stateB Gold/ynDB()*+)9**5#df;66J$S Dhe US has had a num?er of ?ilateral and multilateral energy #olicy forums in the hemis#here over the years5 Dhese forums are #latforms to understand mar=et dynamics, share ?est #ractices on energy efficiency and conservation, share understanding on /ays to enhance energy #roduction, and e>change vie/s on ho/ a nation2s energy #olicies may ?e enhanced or reformed to #romote the nation2s o/n #olicy5 Dhese #olicy dialogues are also essential for ?uilding the understanding and relationshi#s that are essential for trade #romotion and conflict resolution5 umerous dialogues and #rograms have ?een enacted since ())M, /hen ! /rote that engagement /ith the 3estern .emis#here needed to ?e rene/ed5 Among those are a num?er of #rograms and initiatives aimed at energy relations5 Dhe $nergy and Climate Partnershi# of the Americas &$CPA; /as founded at the invitation of President H?ama follo/ing the A#ril ())A Summit of the Americas, hosted in Drinidad and Do?ago5 $CPA /as intended to focus on issues including energy efficiency, rene/a?le energy, cleaner and more efficient use of fossil fuels, energy #overty, and infrastructure, and Secretary of State Clinton later #ro#osed e>#anding the focus to include sustaina?le forests and land use and climate change ada#tation5 $CPA ?rings together governments and #u?lic and #rivate sector #artners to im#lement initiatives and com#lete #ro@ects, and ?oasts numerous initiatives in Central and South America and the Cari??ean5 Among the $CPA !nitiatives are the Colom?ia %iomass !nitiative, /hich aims

to develo# a technological #lan for the #roduction of energy from agroindustrial ?iomass, and the Chile "ene/a?le $nergy Center, /hich is intended to serve as a tool and resource for the region as it see=s to increase its use of rene/a?le fuels5 %oth #ro@ects are underta=en in colla?oration /ith the U5S5 De#artment of $nergy, /hich #rovides technical assistance and o##ortunities for colla?orative /or=5 umerous dialogues e>ist today ?et/een the U5S5 and %ra1il5 Dhe U5S5B%ra1il Strategic $nergy Dialogue &S$D;, a #residentialBlevel #artnershi# aiming to dee#en energy coo#eration ?et/een the t/o nations, is one of the most significant5 Strengthening energy security, the creation of ne/ @o?s and industries and reduction of car?on emissions are =ey goals of the S$D5 Ma@or to#ics of the dialogue include ?iofuels, rene/a?les and the sustaina?le develo#ment of oil and gas resources5

china lin9 turn

China regional dominance hurts Brazilian influence ) plan stops brazil" china regional competition 3ulchin - e>#ert in contem#orary Latin American studies, s#eciali1ing in foreign #olicy and
com#arative ur?an develo#ment, Senior -ello/, Me>ico and Central America Program at .arvard University &Jose#h Dulchin, ,Setting the Agenda0 Asia and Latin America in the (*st Century4, #g (*J htt#066scholarlyre#ository5miami5edu6cgi6vie/content5cgi7 article8*)))Nconte>t8clasO#u?lications;66J$S Dhis ?rings me to the third Fuestion, /hich interests me the most5 !f ! /ere to /rite a #a#er on < this to#ic, ! /ould focus on the #erce#tion in Latin American nations, /hich varies from country to < country, of the roles China does or might #lay in the region5 3hat are the #olicy res#onses ?y Latin < American nations to China2s ne/ #resence7 3he only clear answer is in the case of Brazil, where = there is signi>cant tension between the two governments1 Dhe Chileans also have ta=en u# the < de?ate, and there are signs that if any of the announced Chinese investments in the mining and < energy sectors actually get off the ground, a serious de?ate /ill emerge in Argentina as /ell5 !n $cuador and Iene1uela, noted for their loud rhetorical noises against the US, the Chinese #resence < is considered another form of antiBim#erialism and the rise of China evidence of US decline5 < At this moment, on ?alance, China2s role in Latin America is still ill formed5 Dhe #ro?lem is not < China ?ut rather the lac= of a clear US stance and a /ea= #olicy de?ate in Latin America5 Several < scenarios are #ossi?le going for/ard5 Hne is that neither the US nor the Latin America nations /ill < formulate a collective #olicy to deal /ith the ne/ #henomenon, and #u?lic discussion /ill continue < to entertain /ild s#eculations and cons#iracy theories5 Another scenario is that %ra1il /ill ta=e the < lead to get the Comunidad de $stados Latinoamericanos y Cari?e^os &C$LAC; or Uni_n de aciones < Suramericanas &U ASU"; to formulate a collective res#onse ?ased on shared values or interests5 -or < e>am#le, it is dif`cult, ?ut not im#ossi?le, to imagine a concerted effort to formulate rules concerning < investments in natural resources5 Can /e imagine a Mercosur #olicy on China7 Can Me>ico get the < countries of Central America to @oin a regional res#onse to Chinese trade7 !t is also #ossi?le that a < #olicy ?ased on em#hasis of the rule of la/ /ill #rovide a frame/or= for dealing /ith any e>ternal < inYuence on the region2s domestic #olicies5

me6ico lin9

not zero"sum
3hesis of the advantage is wrong ) Brazil and 5e6ico will cooperate as regional powers1 Kovac - researcher on Latin America, PhD5 candidate of international relationsJ -aculty of
Political Science and !nternational "elations of Mate@ %el University, %ans=P %ystrica, Slova=ia5 "esearcher on Me>icoJ "esearch Center of the Association for !nternational Affairs, Prague, C1ech re# &!van Kovac, Hcto?er (+, ()*(, Cultural Diplomacy ,M$a!CH A D %"AG!L -H"G! G D.$ "$G!H AL PLAQ$" S "HL$4 b htt#066///5culturaldi#lomacy5org6academy6content6#df6#artici#antB#a#ers6()**6a#ril6?iecBroaB nua6ivanO=ovacO#artici#antO#a#erOBOme>icoOandO?ra1ilB forgingOtheOregionalO#layersOrole5#dfc, #5 **B*(;66J$S Dhe future of Latin America /ill not ?e characteri1ed ?y a contest ?et/een Me>ico and %ra1il to gain the role of the leader since the core of ?righter future lies in their coo#eration5 Another reason is the e>istence of centers /ith different #o/er and am?itions mainly Me>ico and %ra1il, the third and slightly less im#ortant one ?eing Iene1uela5 one of them has the ca#acity for an overall leadershi# in the Latin American region5 Me>ico has lost the #ros#ect to ?ecome the uncontested leader of the region, ?ut has an o#tion to #lay a role of a #artner and to understand the interests of his o/n community vis Bd Bvis the US that /ould lead u# to the role of facilitator in their mutual interaction5 Hn the other hand, %ra1il as an uncontested leader of South America /ill face fe/er o?stacles to achieve its vision of South America5 Pro?lem a##ear s /hen ta=ing into account that %ra1il2s activities are almost e>clusively concentrated in South America /hich can ?e seen as an im#ediment to achieve the desired #osition of the leader of the entire region5 Dhus, ?oth Me>ico and %ra1il should o#t for mutual co B o#eration and inter action in their foreign #olicies /hich is the ?asic #rereFuisite to get Latin America on the right /ay once and for all5

venezuela lin9

not zero"sum
8enezuela Brazil influence not zero"sum the power dynamic is already set ) ties have become strong ,omero - QD2s /riter covering %ra1il, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay,
graduated /ith honors from .arvard College /ith a degree in .istory and Literature5 .e also studied for one year in the history de#artment at the University of SUo Paulo in %ra1il &Simon, ,3ith %ra1il as Advocate, Iene1uela Joins Drade %loc0 [-oreign Des=\,4 Dhe e/ Qor= Dimes, ProCuest;66.AL "!H D$ JA $!"H BB After /rangling over Iene1uelaVs status for years, Mercosur, the South American trading ?loc, admitted the country as its fifth full mem?er on Duesday, reflecting the influence /ielded ?y %ra1il, the regionVs #o/erhouse5 Iene1uelaVs inclusion in Mercosur, founded in *AA* ?y Argentina, %ra1il, Paraguay and Uruguay and no/ clearly dominated ?y %ra1il, follo/ed a long di#lomatic struggle5 3hile Iene1uela /as #rovisionally admitted in ())E, its formal entrance /as stalled ?y resistance in some mem?er nations, nota?ly Paraguay, /here the Senate refused to ratify Iene1uelaVs admission5 %ut %ra1il, dra/ing su##ort from Argentina and Uruguay, overrode those o?@ections ?y having Paraguay sus#ended from mem?ershi# in Mercosur after the ouster of President -ernando Lugo in June5 %ra1il @ustified the sus#ension ?y citing concerns a?out the im#act of Mr5 LugoVs removal on ParaguayVs democratic institutions5 Hnce Paraguay /as sidelined, the other three nations moved s/iftly to formali1e Iene1uelaVs mem?ershi#5 Dhe three nations have ?een /or=ing for some time to forge closer economic ties to oilBrich Iene1uela5 !ts #resident, .ugo Chave1, /ho is cam#aigning for reBelection, lea#t at the o##ortunity to fully @oin Mercosur, descri?ing the outmaneuvering of the Paraguayan Senate as a Wfailure of U5S5 foreign #olicy5W Mr5 Chave1, /ho a##eared /ell rested in %rasilia, his first international tri# since receiving treatment for cancer in Cu?a in March, said, WDhe hand of U5S5 di#lomacy /as ?ehind that authoritarian Paraguayan enclave5W .e /as an hour late in arriving at the accession ceremony, and he s=irted #rotocol ?y insisting on /al=ing u# the ram# to the #alace of %ra1ilVs #resident, Dilma "ousseff, rather than ta=ing an elevator5 .er aides acFuiesced5 Dhe ?enefits to %ra1il of Iene1uelaVs Mercosur mem?ershi# /ere made clear almost immediately /hen Mr5 Chave1 signed an agreement to ?uy as many as () #assenger @ets from $m?raer, the %ra1ilian aircraft manufacturer, in a deal #otentially /orth TA)) million5 Mercosur has ?een gra##ling /ith internal dis#utes over #rotectionist measures, largely originating in Argentina, and the rise of another regional ?loc, the Pacific Alliance, /hose four mem?ers BB Chile, Colom?ia, Me>ico and Peru BB have en@oyed fast economic gro/th5 MercosurVs four original mem?ers already have a trade sur#lus of T95M ?illion /ith Iene1uela, /hich relies heavily on im#orts of food and other goods5 %ra1ilian com#anies have done es#ecially /ell there since relations /armed ?et/een Mr5 Chave1 and Ms5 "ousseffVs #redecessor, Lui1 !nacio Lula da Silva5 -or %ra1il, 8enezuela holds longerBterm strategic importance, in the form of its oil reserves, estimated to ?e among the /orldVs largest5 Iene1uela is =no/n for gallo#ing inflation, food shortages and un#redicta?le treatment of foreign investors, ?ut its oil revenues ?uoy one of Latin AmericaVs largest economies5 Still, the /ay %ra1il maneuvered Iene1uela into Mercosur ma=es some critics of Mr5 Chave1 a##rehensive5 Dhey say %ra1il is ignoring re#orts of Mr5 Chave1Vs concentration of #o/er and the erosion of @udicial inde#endence in Iene1uela /hile it e>#resses concern over Paraguayan democracy5 WDhis sets a terri?le e>am#le for the region,W said $lsa Cardo1o, a #rofessor of #olitical science at Central University in Iene1uela5 W!t reveals MercosurVs #olitical /ea=ness at a time of #recarious #rotection of democratic rights in Iene1uela5W

impact

soft power

africa war defense

#o ris9 of great power conflict over Africa Barrett :? "o?ert, PhD Military N Strategic Studies, U of Calgary,
E6*, htt#066#a#ers5ssrn5com6sol+6Delivery5cfm6SS" O!D:(E*E(Ocode+(:'**5#df7 a?stractid8:(E*E(Nmirid8* 3esterners eager to #romote democracy must ?e /ary of African #oliticians /ho #romise democratic reform /ithout sincere commitment to the #rocess5 Hffering money to corru#t leaders in e>change for their ta=ing small ste#s a/ay from autocracy may in fact ?e a /ay of #ushing countries into anocracy5 As such, /orld financial lenders and interventionists /ho /ield leverage and influence must ta=e res#onsi?ility in considering the ramifications of African nations /ho ado#t democracy in order to maintain elite #olitical #rivileges5 Dhe o?vious reason for this, aside from the #otential costs in human life should conflict arise from hastily constructed democratic reforms, is the fact that 3estern donors, in the face of intrastate /ar /ould then ?e faced /ith channeling funds and resources a/ay from democrati1ation efforts and to/ard conflict intervention ?ased on issues of human security5 Dhis is a #ro?lem, as 3estern nations may ?e increasingly /ary of intervening in Africa hots#ots after e>#eriencing firsthand the un#redicta?le and unforgiving nature of societal /arfare in ?oth Somalia and "/anda5 Hn a cost?enefit ?asis, the 3est continues to ?e some/hat reluctant to get involved in Africa2s dirty /ars, evidenced ?y its #olitical hesitation /hen discussing ongoing sanguinary grassroots conflicts in Africa5 $ven as the /orld a#ologi1es for ?earing /itness to the "/andan genocide /ithout having intervened, the U nited S tates, recently using the la?el Zgenocide2in the conte>t of the Sudanese conflict &in Se#tem?er of ())9;, has only #roclaimed sanctions against Sudan, /hile dismissing any suggestions at actual intervention &Giry, ())';5 Part of the #ro?lem is that traditional military and di#lomatic a##roachs at se#arating com?atants and enforcing ceasefires have yielded little in Africa5 o #o/erful nations /ant to get em?roiled in conflicts they cannot /in es#ecially those conflicts in /hich the intervening nation has very little interest5

+utside powers won.t intervene in African conflicts 7oc9ing :' Dim, African Affairs S#ecialist /ith the United States !nstitute of Peace, ()):,
Da=ing Sides Clashing Iie/s on African !ssues, #5 +:E Since the tragedy in Somalia, the trend has ?een for 3estern nations to refuse to send troo#s into AfricaVs hot s#ots5 Jordan recently underscored this #oint /hen it e>#ressed frustration /ith the 3estVs failure to commit soldiers to the U AMS!L mission as a reason for the /ithdra/al of its troo#s from Sierra Leone5 AmericaVs aversion to #eace=ee#ing in Africa also reflects ?roader U5S5 foreign #olicy on the continent5 Africa occu#ies a marginal role in American foreign #olicy in general &a #oint highlighted ?y conference #artici#ants;5

aids defense
3he end of A;7% is within sight <erson &Michael Gerson BB Aide to President George 35 %ush as Assistant to the
President for Policy and Strategic Planning BB 3riter for the 3ashington Post BB WPutting A!DS on the road to e>tinctionW ovem?er *)th, ()** charticles5/ashington#ost5com6()**B**B *)6o#inions6+'(M(*)MO*OaidsB#reventionBaidsBtreatmentBaidsBfreeBgeneration; SM After +) years and +) million funerals, the end of the glo?al A!DS e#idemic is suddenly, une>#ectedly, /ithin sight5 !t /ould ?e a final victory for this clever =iller if America /ere too #reoccu#ied and in/ardBloo=ing to notice and act5 During the last *M months, the science of A!DS #revention has ?een transformed5 Studies have sho/n dramatic results from male circumcision R a more than E) #ercent reduction in the ris= of transmission from /omen to men5 e/ technologies such as micro?icides have #roved effective /hen used ?efore e>#osure to the disease5 Dhen, three months ago, came an article in the e/ $ngland Journal of Medicinetitled ,Prevention of .!IB* !nfection /ith $arly Antiretroviral Dhera#y54 Dhe study found a AE #ercent decrease in transmission to a heterose>ual #artner /hen A!DS treatment /as ?egun early5 Dreating A!DS sooner than later is a dramatically effective form of A!DS #revention5 Scientists ?egan considering something #reviously unimagina?le5 3hat if these methods of A!DS #revention /ere com?ined R along /ith condom use and the #revention of motherBtoB child transmission R and aggressively a##lied in the most affected regions and among the most vulnera?le grou#s in Africa7 Scientific models #ro@ect that transmission rates, already declining in most #laces, /ould fall an additional 9) #ercent to E) #ercent5 Dhis raises a #ros#ect com#ara?le to medical achievements such as the eradication of small#o> or advances in cancer treatment5 Currently, for every ne/ A!DS #atient #ut on treatment, a?out t/o more ?ecome infected5 Millions of lives are saved R ?ut ground is still lost to the disease5 3ith com?ination #revention, the ?alance /ould shift5 -or every #erson /ho ?egins treatment, there /ould ?e fe/er than one /ho ?ecomes infected5 Dhis /ould effectively ?e the e#idemic2s end5 Dhe H?ama administration has officially ado#ted the goal of ,creating an A!DSBfree generation54 ,3hile the finish line is not yet in sight,4 said Secretary of State .illary "odham Clinton on Duesday, ,/e =no/ /e can get there, ?ecause no/ /e =no/ the route /e need to ta=e5 !t reFuires all of us to #ut a variety of scientifically #roven #revention tools to /or= in concert /ith each other54 %ut the #olitical timing of these scientific ?rea=throughs is #oor5 Dhe ?udget crisis has resulted in a Dar/inian com#etition for resources5 Clinton accom#anied her am?itious A!DS o?@ective /ith the notBveryBam?itious re#rogramming of TE) million for demonstration #ro@ects in four countries5 Additional resources can eventually ?e sFuee1ed from e>isting A!DS #rograms5 !n ())9, the cost of treatment averaged a?out T*,()) #er #erson5 Doday, it is less than T+') and still declining5 Hther donor nations, along /ith African countries themselves, can ta=e additional ?urdens5 Qet the o?@ective is not a minor one5 $arlier A!DS treatment in the develo#ing /orld /ould e>#and the #ool of #eo#le in need of medicine5 !n the main U5S5 .!I6A!DS #rogram, Africans currently start drugs /hen their CD9 count R the measure of immune system strength R is, on average, a?out *')5 %eginning at a CD9 count of +') R the recommendation of the 3orld .ealth Hrgani1ation R /ould increase the num?er of Africans on treatment ?y more than ' million5 An aggressive treatmentBasB#revention #rogram /ould start treatment even earlier5 !n normal economic times, the case for this effort /ould ?e fairly easy5 American s#ending on all humanitarian aid #rograms amounts to a?out )5: #ercent of the ?udget5 3hat other marginal s#ending increase could save millions of lives, end an e#idemic and allo/ #u?lic officials to ta=e #art in a historic enter#rise as admira?le as the Marshall Plan7 Dhe #ro#osed #revention strategies do not involve much culture /ar controversy5 "eligious conservatives have no o?@ections to treatment and are neither shoc=ed nor alarmed ?y

circumcision R an old ?i?lical acFuaintance5 %ut /ith economic times far from normal, the case is com#licated5 $nding the glo?al A!DS e#idemic /ould reFuire a ma@or #residential #ush5 !t /ould also reFuire congressional "e#u?licans to ma=e a human life e>ce#tion to austerity5 Dhis u#hill effort /ould, ho/ever, ?e aided ?y a #ragmatic argument5 Since ())+, the United States has hel#ed #lace millions on A!DS treatment5 !n the #rocess, /e have assumed /hat economists call a ,treatment mortgage4 R o?ligations that can2t ?e a?andoned /ithout catastro#hic conseFuences5 A ma@or #revention effort R reducing the num?er of ne/ infections to ?elo/ the num?er of ne/ #eo#le #laced on treatment R is the only morally acce#ta?le strategy that eventually reduces American commitments on A!DS5 .aving a?ru#tly gained the scientific tools to defeat this e#idemic, /hat remains is a test of /ill and conscience5

A;7% doesn.t lead to war

%ecurity Council /ress ,elease , ,SC Meets on .!I6A!DS and PKHs, *B*AB)*, SC6EAA(, htt#066///5un5org6 e/s6Press6docs6())*6scEAA(5doc5htm KAMAL$S. S.A"MA &!ndia; said !ndia had tried to follo/ the Council2s reasoning on the issue, ?ecause .!I6A!DS /as not, and had not ?een, a cause of conflict5 o country had gone to /ar ?ecause of A!DS5 "esolution *+)M &())); had, of course, made no such claim, ?ut it did say that the ,#andemic is also e>acer?ated ?y conditions of violence and insta?ility45 Dhe evidence did not su##ort that either5

A;7% will be cured in the ne6t five years

%ample : &!an Sam#le BB PhD in ?iomedical materials from Cueen MaryVs, University of London, Science Corresondent at Dhe Guaradian W%lan=et .!I testing Vcould see A!DS dying out in 9) yearsVW -e?ruary (*st, ()*) #o///5guardian5co5u=6/orld6()*)6fe?6(*6?lan=etBtestingB hivBaids; SM .ealth officials are considering a radical shift in the /ar against .!I and Aids that /ould see everyone tested for the virus and #ut on a lifetime course of drugs if they are found to ?e #ositive5 Dhe strategy, /hich /ould involve testing most of the /orldVs #o#ulation for .!I, aims to reduce the transmission of the virus that causes Aids to a level at /hich it dies out com#letely over the ne>t 9) years5 %rian 3illiams, #rofessor of e#idemiology at the South African Centre for $#idemiological Modelling and Analysis in Stellen?osch, said that transmission of .!I could effectively ?e halted /ithin five years /ith the use of antiretroviral drugs &A"Is;5 WDhe e#idemic of .!I is really one of the /orst #lagues of human history,W 3illiams told the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in San Diego5 W! ho#e /e can get to the starting line in one to t/o years and get com#lete coverage of #atients in five years5 May?e thatVs ?eing o#timistic, ?ut /eVre facing Armageddon5W Ma@or trials of the strategy are #lanned in Africa and the US and /ill feed into a final decision on /hether to ado#t the measure as #u?lic health #olicy in the ne>t t/o years5 Dhe move follo/s research that sho/s ?lan=et #rescri?ing of A"Is could sto# .!I transmission and halve cases of AidsBrelated tu?erculosis /ithin *) years5 More than +) million #eo#le are infected /ith .!I glo?ally and t/o million die of the disease each year5 3hile A"Is have ?een a huge success in #reventing the virus from causing fullB ?lo/n Aids, scientists estimate only *(e of those living /ith the infection receive the drugs5 Dhe disease is over/helmingly #revalent in su?BSaharan Africa, /hich accounts for a Fuarter of all .!I6Aids cases glo?ally5 .alf of these are in South Africa5 !n general e#idemics, a #erson /ith .!I infects ?et/een five to *) others ?efore succum?ing to com#lications of Aids5 Dreating #atients /ith A"Is /ithin a year of ?ecoming infected can reduce transmission tenfold, enough to cause the e#idemic to die out5 !n the trials, #eo#le /ill ?e offered .!I tests once a year, either

as routine /hen they visit their GP, or through mo?ile clinics in more remote regions5 Dhose testing #ositive /ill ?e #ut on a lifetime course of A"Is5 WHver the #ast (' years /e have saved the lives of #ro?a?ly t/o to three million #eo#le using antiretroviral drugs, ?ut almost nothing /e have done has had any im#act on transmission of the disease,W 3illiams said5 W3e have sto##ed #eo#le dying ?ut /e havenVt sto##ed the e#idemic5W !f #atients ta=e A"Is /hen they should, the amount of virus in their ?odies can fall ?y *),))) times, to a level at /hich they are e>tremely unli=ely to #ass the virus on5 WDhe Fuestion is, can /e use these drugs not only to =ee# #eo#le alive, ?ut also to sto# transmission and ! ?elieve that /e can5 3e could effectively sto# transmission of .!I in five years5W Scientists estimate that the cost of im#lementing the strategy in South Africa alone /ill ?e T+?nBT9?n a year5 Dhe /orld currently s#ends T+)?n &f*A59?n; a year on Aids research and treatment, a figure that some e>#erts ?elieve /ill dou?le over the ne>t decade5 Su?BSaharan Africa has seen a dramatic rise in cases of tu?erculosis among .!I #atients, /ho are also susce#ti?le to other infections ?ecause their immune systems are /ea=ened5 W!f you factor in all of the costs, in my o#inion, doing this /ould ?e cost saving from day one, ?ecause the cost of the drugs /ould ?e more than ?alanced ?y the cost of treating #eo#le for all of these other diseases and then letting them die,W 3illiams said5 W3eVre =illing #ro?a?ly half a million young adults every year in the #rime of their life @ust at the #oint /here they should ?e contri?uting to society and the cost of that to society is enormous,W he added5 WDhe only thing thatVs more e>#ensive than doing this is not doing this5W .!I #atients in southern Africa are more li=ely to ta=e A"Is /hen they should than #eo#le living in develo#ed countries, according to health officials5 Dhe finding gives doctors ho#e that the ?lan=et administering of drugs might su##ress the virus enough that it dies out naturally5 Last year, scientists re#orted marginal success of a .!I vaccine follo/ing a large scale trial in Dhailand5 Dhe vaccine ?enefited only +*e of those /ho received it5 A vaccine is generally regarded as /orth/hile if it #rotects more than :)e of those treated5

democracy defense
7emocracies go to war ) ;srael and ;ndia both prove
%haw, :: &Martin, Professor of !nternational "elations and Politics, University of Susse>, ())), ,Democracy and #eace in the glo?al revolution,4 htt#066///5susse>5ac5u=6Users6hafa+6democracy5htm, .ensel; !n the glo?al era, esta?lished li?eralBdemocratic states do not fight each other5 %ut once again, it o?vious that this is not sim#ly because they are democracies, ?ut ?ecause they are em?edded in the raft of common 3estern and glo?al state institutions5 !ndeed it is not @ust li?eral democracies /hich do not fight each other0 the ma@or nonB3estern states &"ussia, China, !ndia, %ra1il, etc5;, /hether democratic or not, are not li=ely to fight /ith the dominant 3estern #o/ers5 Hutside the 3estern core of glo?al state #o/er, ho/ever, national centres are more /ea=ly integrated /ith its institutional structures, and regional institutions /hich might inhi?it local conflicts are much /ea=er than they are in the core5 !n the Cold 3ar era, interstate rivalries ?et/een ma@or regional #o/ers B such as ?et/een "ussia and China, !ndia and Pa=istan and China, !ndonesia and Malaysia, !ran and !raF, !srael and the Ara? states B led to /ars and ?order incidents5 3hile the integrative tendencies in the emerging glo?al #olity, including the democratisation trends, may increasingly inhi?it /ars, it clearly remains possible that such interstate rivalries will generate new wars5 !t is clear that democratisation in itself is not a guarantee of /arBavoidance in such conficts5 !srael, the only internally democratic state in the Middle $ast, has also ?een the most ?elligerentJ !ndian democracy has ?een Fuite com#ati?le /ith ?ellicosity to/ards Pa=istan5 Democratic as /ell as military governments may see /ar, so long as it can ?e =e#t limited and relatively costBfree, as a means of ?oosting #o#ularity5 Dhus Qeltsin2s "ussia sought a military solution in the ?rea=a/ay re#u?lic of Chechnya, des#ite the lessons of the lateBSoviet failure in Afghanistan5 Hnly in defeat did "ussia2s /ea= democracy #enalise the regime for the ne/ disaster, and then not decisively5

7emocracy doesn.t solve violence within states ) empirics

Ferguson, :@ & iall, Laurence A5 Disch Professor of .istory at .arvard University, senior fello/ at the .oover !nstitution, Stanford University, ())E, The War of the Worl ! History"s #$e of Hatre , #5 >>>viii, .ensel; Did it matter ho/ states /ere governed7 !t has ?ecome fashiona?le among #olitical scientists to #osit a correlation ?et/een democracy and #eace, on the ground that democracies tend not to go to /ar /ith one another5 Hn that ?asis, of course, the longBrun rise of democracy during the t/entieth century should have reduced the incidence of /ar5 !t may have reduced the incidence of /ar ?et/een statesJ there is, ho/ever, at least some evidence that /aves of democrati1ation in the *A()s, *AE)s, and *AM)s /ere follo/ed ?y increases in the num?er of civil /ars and /ars of secession5 Dhis ?rings us to a central #oint5 Do consider t/entiethBcentury conflict #urely in terms of /arfare ?et/een states is to overloo= the im#ortance of organi1ed violence within states5 Dhe most notorious e>am#le is, of course, the /ar /aged ?y the a1is and their colla?orators against the Je/s, nearly si> million of /hom #erished5 Dhe a1is simultaneously sought to annihilate a variety of other social grou#s deemed to ?e Zun/orthy of life2, nota?ly mentally ill and homose>ual Germans, the social elite of occu#ied Poland and the Sinti and "oma #eo#les5 !n all, more than three million #eo#le from these other grou#s /ere murdered5 Prior to these events, Stalin had #er#etrated com#ara?le acts of violence against national minorities /ithin the Soviet Union as /ell as e>ecuting or incarcerating millions of "ussians guilty or merely sus#ected of #olitical dissidence5 Hf around four million nonB"ussians /ho /ere de#orted to Si?eria and Central Asia, at least *5E million are estimated to have died as a result of the hardshi#s inflicted on them5 A minimum estimate for the total victims of all #olitical

violence in the Soviet Union ?et/een *A(M and *A'+ is t/entyBone million5 Qet genocide #redated totalitarianism5 As /e shall see, the #olicies of forced resettlement and deli?erate murder directed against Christian minorities in the last years of the Httoman $m#ire amounted to genocide according to the *A9M definition of the term5

israel defense
;sraelA/alestine conflict has never escalated
%atloff, @ &"o?ert, $>ecutive Director 3ashington !nstitute, ,Dhe !raF Study Grou#0 Assessing !ts "egional Conclusions4, *(B(*, htt#066///5/ashingtoninstitute5org6tem#lateC)'5#h#7 C!D8('9A; 3he re#ortVs greatest analytical leap of faith is the notion that all the =ey issues in the 5iddle Bast are Wine>trica?ly lin9ed5W ;n the past, it was believed that the e>#ort of the !ranian revolution /ould undermine #roB3est regimes throughout the Middle $ast, or that failure to resolve the ;sraeli"/alestinian conflict would spar9 a regional war5 Doday, the idea of lin=age im#lies that SunniBShiite violence /ill s#read throughout the region5 3he problem with all these theories is that there is no evidence to bac9 them up5 Do the contrary, military success in the Gulf does not translate into di#lomatic success in the Ara?B!sraeli arena5 Dhe Madrid #rocess had a #romising o#ening session, ?ut /hen it came do/n to ?argaining it ran u# against the reality of !sraeliBPalestinian differences5 -urthermore, there is no evidence that local disasters translate into regional disasters5 Ayatollah "uhollah Khomeini4s ;ran failed to e6port the revolution des#ite national efforts5 3here is no evidence to su##ort the #ro#osition that ;sraeli"/alestinian violence has su?stantial regional repercussions, let alone that it can lead to regional war5 Dhe years -::: to -::! saw the worst period of ;sraeli"/alestinian relations, but the regional implication was zero5 #ot one state threatened to fight ;srael, the Arab street did not rise to protest, and no Arab regime4s stability was threatened5 Dhe United States should not vie/ the Middle $ast as an organic unit5 !raFVs #ro?lems are #rimarily !raFi in origin and !raFi in solution5 !ran alone #oses a serious challenge, and the !sraeliBPalestinian #ro?lem is im#ortant to solve ?ecause it is the right thing to do5

smo9ing defense
%mo9ing isn.t that bad" has health benefits
%ample, ! C ,Smo=ing is good for you4 B g!an Sam#le Dhe Guardian, 3ednesday E August
())+ citing Jodi -la/s at the University of Maryland school of medicine,htt#066///5guardian5co5u=6lifeandstyle6())+6aug6):6sho##ing5health\66AD% Smo=ing Dal= to #hysicians and theyVll tell you there are fe/ things you can #ut in your mouth that are /orse for you than a cigarette5 %ut itVs not all doom and gloom5 Smo=ers are at least doing their ?it to slo/ do/n the runa/ay o?esity e#idemic that is s/ee#ing through the /estern /orld5 W!n many studies, you often find smo=ers are slimmer5 3eVve certainly seen it in our studies,W says Jodi -la/s at the University of Maryland school of medicine5 WSome #eo#le thin= itVs due to certain chemicals in cigarettes someho/ ma=ing them ?urn more calories, ?ut others ?elieve it su##resses a##etite5 !t may /ell ?e ?oth5W Drastically u##ing your chances of cancer and heart disease might not ?e the ?est /ay to avoid o?esity, ?ut itVs certainly easier than running round the ?loc=5 Scientists have also found evidence that smo=ing might, in some circumstances, hel# #revent the onset of various dementias5 Many dementias go handBinBhand /ith a loss of chemical rece#tors in the ?rain that @ust ha##en to ?e stimulated ?y nicotine5 Smo=ing seems to ?olster these rece#tors, and smo=ers have more of them5 Dhe theory is that smo=ers may then have more to lose ?efore they start losing their minds5 W!t does seem that nicotine has a #reventative effect, ?ut the #ro?lem is that the other stuff in the cigarette tends to rot everything else,W says "oger %ulloc=, a s#ecialist in dementia and director of the Kingshill "esearch Centre in S/indon5 So if your time is nearly u# any/ay, and you have someho/ managed to steer a course #ast the Scylla and Chary?dis of heart attac=s and tumours, smo9ing might &ust help you retain your marbles1

soft power effectiveness

(ac9 of military bac9ing ma9es diplomatic and soft power engagements fail Bertonha ) #rofessor of history h Maringa State University &Joao -a?io %ertonha,
January (nd, ()** Sci%&' ,%ra1il0 an emerging military #o/er7 Dhe #ro?lem of the use of force in %ra1ilian international relations in the (*st century4 b htt#066///5scielo5?r6#df6r?#i6v'+n(6)E5#dfc;66J$S Hther contentious issues are trade Fuestions or the role of %ra1il and Argentina in the U Security Council5 Such #ro?lems, ho/ever, are not uncommon in the routine of nations and noB one has ever gone to /ar ?ecause of that5 Dhe %ra1ilian State ma=es a great effort not to ta=e regional Fuestions into the defense field and to sho/ caution in the intentions of its leadershi#5 Mercosur may ?e understood in the conte>t of this nonBconfrontational logic5 Concerning the /orld outside South America, %ra1il2s intentions have never ?een ?ased on any military #o/er, ?ut on mediation, the righteousness of its cause, and the #erformance in the many international organi1ations the country ?elongs to &Miyamoto, ())A0 (9B(E;5 All of this indicates ho/ the international #ro@ection #lan so long ago ?y the %ra1ilian elite does not mean ta=ing an aggressive #osture to/ard our neigh?ors, much less any attem#t to modify the glo?al order ?y the use of force5 %ra1il is, to all intents and #ur#oses, a #eaceful country /hich does not relate its e>ternal #olitics to the ca#acity of military #ro@ection, choosing instead to o#t for dialog and continuous concessions5 evertheless, there is the Fuestion of /hether this is the #osture assumed ?y the %ra1ilian elite or sim#ly an o#tion that has arisen out of circumstances, derived from the cold evaluation of %ra1il2s strategic #ossi?ilities5 Alsina Jr5 ma=es a very closelyBargued evaluation of this to#ic and, in a nutshell, his conclusion is that, regarding the e>istence of a national tradition for the resolution of conflicts throughout negotiation, nonBconfrontational #olitics is also a reflection of a /ea=ness in national military #o/er that /ill last through the (* st century5 .ence, the #re#onderance of di#lomacy over armed force comes from a conciliatory national identity together /ith the a/areness of the lac= of an effective ca#acity for the use of force5 Dhus, the idea that the country rationally chose to maintain its strength at a lo/ ?ase and to favor negotiation loses strength5 !t /ould only ?e #ossi?le if there /ere a great ca#acity for the construction of #u?lic #olicies and their coordination, su?ordinating the military to the di#lomats, /hat has never occurred &Alsina Jr5, ())A0 *M+;5 Dhe %ra1ilian #ro?lem is that for many reasons &including the country2s relative safety due to its geogra#hic isolation and having fe/ great rivals in the region; security and defense issues have never received #ro#er attention and the armed forces have never had significant ca#acity for the #ro@ection of #o/er in the (* st century, /hich has inevita?ly meant that the international issues have ?een left to the di#lomats5

prolif defense
Bmpirics prove ) no nu9e prolif and no impact <avin, D &Ph5D5 in Di#lomatic .istory from the University of Pennsylvania, a Master of Studies
in Modern $uro#ean .istory from H>ford, and a %5A5 in Political Science &/ith honors; from the University of Chicago, Professor of !nternational Affairs at Lyndon %5 Johnson School of Pu?lic Affairs at the University of De>as at Austin, ,Same as it ever /as,4 M!D #ress @ournals, htt#066///5mit#ress@ournals5org6doi6#df#lus6*)5**E(6isec5()*)5+95+5:; Hne of the greatest fears of nuclear alarmists is that if a =ey state acFuires nuclear /ea#ons, others /ill follo/5 Dhis idea of a nuclear ti#B #ing #oint, chain reaction, or ,domino4 effect, ho/ever, is ?y no means ne/5 Consider this headlineR,Many ations "eady to %rea= into uclear Clu?4R from a frontB#age article in the 3ashington Post from June *AM*5+A Articles /ith similar titles can ?e found from almost every year since at least the early *AE)s5 -ears of a ti##ing #oint /ere es#ecially acute in the aftermath of China2s *AE9 detonation of an atomic ?om?0 it /as #redicted that !ndia, !ndonesia, and Ja#an might follo/, /ith conseFuences /orld/ide, as ,!srael, S/eden, Germany, and other #otential nuclear countries far from China and !ndia /ould ?e affected ?y #roliferation in Asia549) A U5S5 government document identiaed ,at least eleven nations &!ndia, Ja#an, !srael, S/eden, 3est Germany, !taly, Canada, C1echoslova=ia, $ast Germany, "umania, and Qugoslavia;4 /ith the ca#acity to go nuclear, a num?er that /ould soon ,gro/ su?stantially4 to include ,South Africa, the United Ara? "e#u?lic, S#ain, %ra1il and Me>ico54 and com#le>ity of this #ro?lem ?y creating strong #ressures to develo# indeB #endent nuclear forces, /hich, in turn, could strongly inouence the #lans of other #otential nuclear #o/ers54Dhese #redictions /ere largely /rong5 !n *AM' the ational !ntelligence Council noted that for ,almost thirty years the !ntelligence Community has ?een /riting a?out /hich nations might ne>t get the ?om?54 All of these estiB mates ?ased their largely #essimistic and ultimately incorrect estimates on facB tors such as the increased ,access to assile materials,4 im#roved technical ca#a?ilities in countries, the li=elihood of ,chain reactions,4 or a ,scram?le4 to #roliferation /hen ,even one additional state demonstrates a nuclear ca#aB ?ility54 Dhe *AM' re#ort goes on, ,Dhe most stri=ing characteristic of the #resentBday nuclear #roliferation scene is that, des#ite the alarms rung ?y #ast $stimates, no additional overt #roliferation of nuclear /ea#ons has actually occurred since China tested its ?om? in *AE954 Although ,some #roliferation of nuclear e>#losive ca#a?ilities and other ma@or #roliferationB related develo#B ments have ta=en #lace in the #ast t/o decades,4 they did not have ,the damaging, system/ide im#acts that the !ntelligence community generally anB tici#ated they /ould549+

warming defense
Brazil won.t solve warming ) conflicting priorities Bodman and *olfensohn, B U5S5 secretary of energy from ())' to ())A, a %S from
Cornell University and a PhD from M!D, /here he /as also associate #rofessor of chemical engineering, James D5 3olfensohn is chairman of 3olfensohn N Com#any, LLC, chairman of Citigrou#2s international advisory ?oard, and adviser to Citigrou#2s senior management on glo?al strategy and on international matters, .e is a honorary trustee of the %roo=ings !nstitution, a mem?er of the Council on -oreign "elations, Master of %usiness Administration &M%A; degree at .arvard %usiness School, &,Glo?al %ra1il and U5S5B%ra1il "elations,4 !nde#endent Das= -orce "e#ort o5 EE, Council on -oreign "elations, July *(th, ()**, htt#066///5cfr5org6?ra1il6glo?alB?ra1ilBusB?ra1ilBrelations6#('9):;66.AL Des#ite %ra1il2s goals, mitigating climate change often conflicts /ith other governmental #riorities, such as #overty reduction, economic develo#ment, and e>#ansion of trade5 "educing Ama1on deforestation com#etes /ith largeBscale hydro#o/er develo#ment and construction of transcontinental high/ays to lin= %ra1il2s hinterland /ith the Pacific Hcean5 "eductions in landB use and agricultural emissions com#ete /ith %ra1il2s gro/ing agricultural sector5 $ven the #ro#osed reduction #lans have limited ca#acity and can offset each otherRe>#anding ?iofuels and hydro#o/er may result in greater landBuse emissions5 Dhe Das= -orce /arns that these conflicts can reduce the effectiveness of G.G reduction #rograms and #ut their sustaina?ility at ris=5 Dhe Das= -orce /elcomes %ra1il2s aggressive #osition to/ard reducing domestic G.G emissions, going materially ?eyond its o?ligations under current climate agreements5 Achieving these goals, ho/ever, /ill ?e com#licated ?y multi#le com#eting #riorities of economic gro/th, social develo#ment, and trade5

7eveloping countries, la6 regulation, and profit ma6imization means warming is inevitable /orter, ! B /rites the $conomic Scene column for the 3ednesday %usiness section &March
*A, $duardo, ,A Model for "educing $missions4 htt#066///5nytimes5com6()*+6)+6()6?usiness6usBe>am#leBoffersBho#eBforBcuttingBcar?onB emissions5html7Or8*N; Bven if every American coal"fired power plant were to close, that /ould not ma=e u# for the coalB?ased generators ?eing ?uilt in develo#ing countries li=e !ndia and China5 ,Since ())), the gro/th in coal has ?een *) times that of rene/a?les,4 said Daniel Qergin, chairman of !.S Cam?ridge $nergy "esearch Associates5< -atih %irol, chief economist of the !nternational $nergy Agency in Paris, #oints out that if civili1ation is to avoid catastro#hic climate change, only a?out one third of the +,))) gigatons of CH( contained in the /orld2s 9nown reserves of oil, gas and coal can ?e released into the atmos#here5< %ut the /orld economy does not /or= as if this /ere the case R not governments, nor ?usinesses, nor consumers5< ,!n all my e>#erience as an oil com#any manager, not a single oil com#any too= into the #icture the #ro?lem of CH(,4 said Leonardo Maugeri, an energy e>#ert at .arvard /ho until ()*) /as head of strategy and develo#ment for !taly2s stateBo/ned oil com#any, $ni5 ,Dhey are all totally devoted to re#lacing the reserves they consume every year54

3heir studies prove the e6istence of warming, not the impact ) doomsday predictions are empirically denied and ignore scientists
John %tossel, A/ardB/inning A%C e/s corres#ondent, -::' Dhe Glo?al 3arming Myth7, htt#066a?cne/s5go5com6()()6Story7id8+)E*)*'N#age8* Dr5 John Christy, #rofessor of Atmos#heric Science at the University of Ala?ama at .untsville said0 W! remem?er as a college student at the first $arth Day ?eing told it /as a certainty that ?y the year ())), the /orld /ould ?e starving and out of energy5 Such doomsday #ro#hecies gra??ed headlines, ?ut have proven to be completely false1E WSimilar #ronouncements today a?out catastro#hes due to humanBinduced climate change,W he continued, Wsound all too familiar and all too e6aggerated to me as someone /ho actually #roduces and analy1es climate information5W Dhe media, of course, li=e the e>aggerated claims5 Most are ?ased on com#uter models that #ur#ort to #redict future climates5 %ut com#uter models are lousy at predicting climate ?ecause /ater va#or and cloud effects cause changes that com#uters fail to #redict5 !n the midB*A:)s, com#uter models told us /e should #re#are for glo?al cooling5 Scientists tell re#orters that com#uter models should W?e vie/ed /ith great s=e#ticism5W 3ell, /hy arenVt they7 Dhe fundamentalist doom mongers also ignore scientists /ho say the effects of glo?al /arming may ?e ?enign5 .arvard astro#hysicist Sallie %aliunas said added CH( in the atmos#here may actually benefit the world ?ecause more CH( hel#s #lants gro/5 3armer /inters /ould give farmers a longer harvest season, and might end the droughts in the Sahara Desert5 3hy donVt /e hear a?out this #art of the glo?al /arming argument7 W!tVs the moneyiW said Dr5 %aliunas5 WD/entyBfive ?illion dollars in government funding has ?een s#ent since *AA) to research glo?al /arming5 !f scientists and researchers /ere coming out releasing re#orts that glo?al /arming has little to do /ith man, and most to do /ith @ust ho/ the #lanet /or=s, there /ouldnVt ?e as much money to study it5W

multipolarity

bric defense
#o impact """ they.ll &ust bandwagon with the 01%1
Brilliant, - R senior vice #resident for international affairs at the U5S5 Cham?er of Commerce &Myron, ,Dhe 3orld in ()+)0 Are /e on the #ath to convergence or divergence74, Glo?al Drends ()+), '6(:6()*(, htt#066gt()+)5com6()*(6)'6(:6theB/orldBinB()+)BareB/eBonBtheB#athBtoB convergenceBorBdivergence6, Deech; 3hile it is true that leaders from Brazil, ,ussia, China and ;ndia no/ meet to discuss regional and glo?al issues, this is at this time largely a tal=Bsho#J nothing #rofound has come out of these discussions5 Certainly, it is hard to see these countries agreeing to ma# out a radical de#arture from the e>isting international system through alternative institutions5 .o/ever, these countries /ill ?egin to demand changes to the e>isting system or they /on2t #lay ?all /ith the mandates issued ?y these governance organi1ations5 !t is /orth noting that most of these countries see directional alignment with the 0nited %tates as essential for global stability R even if they at times have different vie/s on critical geo#olitical issues &e5g5, five #lus one on !ran or si>B #arty tal=s /ith orth Korea;5 Certainly, China sees itself as more of a #artner of the United States on economic and security matters than it /ould !ndia or "ussia, /here the de#endency and trust factor is even lo/er5 And %ra1ilian President Dilma made it Fuite e>#licit /hen she articulated in 3ashington, D5C5 during her /inter visit that her country2s as#iration is to have a strategic relationshi# /ith the United StatesJ in contrast, she said %ra1il only /anted a commercial relationshi# /ith China5

instability defense
(atin america literally poses no security threat #aim @ &Moises, -oreign Policy no*': 9)B+, 9'B: 6D ())E, editor of foreign #olicy maga1ine;
-or decades, Latin AmericaVs /eight in the /orld has ?een shrin=ing5 !t is not an economic #o/erhouse, a security threat, or a #o#ulation ?om?5 $ven its tragedies #ale in com#arison to AfricaVs5 Dhe region /ill not rise until it ends its search for magic formulas5 !t may not ma=e for a good sound ?ite, ?ut #atience is Latin AmericaVs ?iggest deficit of all5 Latin America has gro/n used to living in the ?ac=yard of the United States5 -or decades, it has ?een a region /here the U5S5 government meddled in local #olitics, fought communists, and #romoted its ?usiness interests5 $ven if the rest of the /orld /asnVt #aying attention to Latin America, the United States occasionally /as5 Dhen came Se#tem?er **, and even the United States seemed to tune out5 aturally, the /orldVs attention centered almost e>clusively on terrorism, the /ars in Afghanistan, !raF, and Le?anon, and on the nuclear am?itions of orth Korea and !ran5 Latin America ?ecame AtlantisBBthe lost continent5 Almost overnight, it disa##eared from the ma#s of investors, generals, di#lomats, and @ournalists5 !ndeed, as one commentator recently Fui##ed, Latin America canVt com#ete on the /orld stage in any as#ect, even as a threat5 Unli=e antiB Americans else/here, Latin Americans are not /illing to die for the sa=e of their geo#olitical hatreds5 Latin America is a nuclearB/ea#ons free 1one5 !ts only /ea#on of mass destruction is cocaine5 !n contrast to emerging mar=ets li=e !ndia and China, Latin America is a minor economic #layer /hose glo?al significance is declining5 Sure, a fe/ countries e>#ort oil and gas, ?ut only Iene1uela is in the to# league of the /orldVs energy mar=et5 ot even Latin AmericaVs disasters seem to elicit glo?al concern anymore5 Argentina e>#erienced a massive financial stro=e in ())*, and no one a?road seemed to care5 Unli=e #rior crashes, no government or international financial institution rushed to ?ail it out5 Latin America doesnVt have AfricaVs famines, genocides, an .!I6A!DS #andemic, /holesale state failures, or roc= stars /ho routinely ado#t its tragedies5 %ono, %ill Gates, and Angelina Jolie /orry a?out %ots/ana, not %ra1il5 %ut @ust as the fiveByearBold /ar on terror #ronounced the necessity of confronting threats /here they linger, it also underscored the dangers of neglect5 Li=e Afghanistan, Latin America sho/s ho/ Fuic=ly and easy it is for the United States to lose its influence /hen 3ashington is distracted ?y other #riorities5 !n ?oth #laces, 3ashingtonVs disinterest #roduced a vacuum that /as filled ?y #olitical grou#s and leaders hostile to the United States5 o, Latin America is not churning out !slamic terrorists as Afghanistan /as during the days of the Dali?an5 !n Latin America, the #o/er ga# is ?eing filled ?y a grou# of dis#arate leaders often lum#ed together under the ?anner of #o#ulism5 Hn the rare occasions that Latin American countries do ma=e international ne/s, itVs the election of a soBcalled #o#ulist, an a##arently antiBAmerican, antiB mar=et leader, that raises hac=les5 .o/ever, Latin AmericaVs #o#ulists arenVt a monolith5 Some are /orse for international sta?ility than is usually re#orted5 %ut some have the #otential to chart a ne/, #ositive course for the region5 Underlying the ascent of these ne/ leaders are several real, stu??orn threads running through Latin AmericansV frustration /ith the status Fuo in their countries5 Unfortunately, the United StatesVBBBand the rest of the /orldVsBBlac= of interest in that region means that the forces that are sha#ing dis#arate #olitical movements in Latin America are often glossed over, misinter#reted, or ignored5 Ultimately, though, /hat matters most is not /hat the northern giant thin=s or does as much as /hat half a ?illion Latin Americans thin= and do5 And in the last cou#le of decades, the /ild s/ings in their #olitical ?ehavior have created a highly unsta?le terrain /here ?uilding the institutions indis#ensa?le for #rogress or for fighting #overty has ?ecome increasingly difficult5 Dhere is a /ay out5 %ut itVs not the Fuic= fi> that too many of Latin AmericaVs leaders have #romised and that an im#atient #o#ulation demands5

""hardline defense
#o nuclear Brazil %otero and Armi&o, ' Sotero is the director of the %ra1il !nstitute of the 3oodro/ 3ilson
!nternational Center for Scholars and Armi@o is an inde#endent research #rofessional at Portland State University and holds a Ph5D5 from UC %er=eley in Political Science &Paulo and Leslie $lliott, ,%"AG!L0 DH %$ H" HD DH %$ A %"!C74 AS!A P$"SP$CD!I$, Iol5 +*, o5 9, ()):, ##5 9+B:), Google Scholar;66.AL %ra1il is also a technologically so#histicated country that has e>#licitly renounced nuclear /ea#ons since ?ecoming a sta?le democracy5 !t #ossesses the indigenous ca#acity to #roduce fissile material for a nuclear /ea#on5 !n *AA) a %ra1ilian #arliamentary inFuiry commission re#orted that during the years of military government &*AE9B*AM'; %ra1il2s air force had designed t/o atomic ?om? devices59 .o/ever, %ra1il2s secret nuclearB/ea#ons #rogram, and the country2s conseFuent refusal to sign the uclear onBProliferation Dreaty & PD; in the *A:)s and *AM)s, had ?een directed mainly at deterring neigh?oring Argentina, in addition to #reserving the #rinci#le of not officially recogni1ing the e>clusive rights of any nation to have nuclear /ea#ons5 3ith redemocrati1ation in ?oth %ra1il and Argentina in the early *AM)s, their governments entered into closer #olitical and economic coo#eration, one result of /hich /as a series of ?ilateral arms control treaties5 !n *AMM %ra1il introduced a nonBamenda?le clause in its ne/ly ado#ted, democratic constitution for?idding itself from ever ?uilding a nuclear /ea#on5 %y the decade2s end, %ra1il and Argentina each had o#ened its nuclearB#o/er facilities to mutual ins#ection5 .aving reali1ed that they neither needed nor /anted nuclear /ea#ons, %ra1il2s leaders made as #u?lic a #oint as #ossi?le of renouncing them5 !n Se#tem?er *AA) President -ernando Collor &*AA)B*AA(; had himself #hotogra#hed shoveling dirt do/n a nuclear test shaft, sym?olically ?urying the military2s nuclear?om? #rogram5 Su?seFuently, %ra1il signed all of the ma@or international arms control treaties5 3ith the /orld2s si>thBlargest de#osits of uranium, and the ca#acity to enrich it, %ra1il also has acce#ted the covenants of internationallyB legitimated nuclear su##lier countries5' Although the ne/ nuclear #olicy #osture has never ?een acce#ted ?y nationalists in academia, the military, or the foreign ministry, and remains a matter of considera?le controversy, it is unli=ely to ?e reversed5 An even more crucial reFuisite for ?eing considered a large emerging #o/er is current and #ro@ected economic si1e, /hich many international relations theorists consider the single ?est indicator of relative #o/er5

turns

heg turn
#o positive consequence to rising Brazil but Brazil regional power 9ills 0% hegemony %oares de (ima and First, @ B PhD in Political Science from Iander?ilt University &*AME;5
Currently she is a #rofessor at the !nstitute of Social and Political Studies &!$SPBU$"J; and coordinator of the South American Politics H?servatory, HPSA6U$"J &Maria and Monica, ,%ra1il as an intermediate state and regional #o/er0 action, choice and res#onsi?ilities,4 !nternational Affairs, ())E, htt#066disci#linas5stoa5us#5?r6#luginfile5#h#69+*)+6modOresource6content6*6%ra1il e()ase()ane()intermediatee()statee()ande()regionale()#o/ere()Be()action, e()#o/ere()ande()res#onsa?ilities5#df;66.AL US%ra1il relations have gone through different #hases, oscillating ?et/een Zgood2 and Zcool2 /ithout ever ti##ing into o#en hostility5 Dhe t/o states have shared a notion of Zlimited divergence2 /hich, /hile al/ays avoiding o#en confrontation, has resulted in frustrations on ?oth sides that have long dominated their relationshi#5 US%ra1il relations have faced cyclical crises of e>#ectations caused ?y erroneous calculations on ?oth sides5 evertheless, all through the t/entieth century, ?ilateral relations #layed a crucial role in %ra1il2s foreign affairs as /ell as in the US hemis#heric agenda5 Dhough US%ra1il relations have al/ays ?een dominated ?y an intergovernmental agenda, nonBgovernmental actors have recently e>#anded their #resence and gro/n in im#ortance5 GHs, cultural and educational entities, as /ell as a diverse set of #rivate economic interests, all no/ contri?ute to a com#le> and increasingly intense ?ilateral interaction5 As US%ra1il relations have ?ecome more com#le> on ?oth sides, military, economic, #olitical and cultural interests have led to a more o#en agenda and introduced a ?roader range of concerns and #ressures5 -or the United States, the im#ortance of %ra1il in /orld #olitics and international security is small, es#ecially /hen com#ared to crucial allies such as Canada and the UK, or to other states such as Germany, Ja#an and "ussia5 -or %ra1il, the #icture is very different5 %ra1il =ee#s a #ermanent /atch on the United States and /hat it does in /orld #olitics, and its foreign #olicy decisions consistently involve an assessment of the costs and ?enefits of convergence /ith or divergence from the US5 Such caution has increased in the uni#olar /orld, #articularly since Se#tem?er **5 Differences ?et/een %ra1il and the United States over the latter2s intervention in /orld and regional crises have ?een visi?le in such e#isodes as the Gulf 3ar &*AA*;, the crisis in .aiti &*AAE; and the Kosovo tragedy &*AAM;5 !n all cases, the US /ould have /elcomed %ra1il2s full su##ort5 !n summary, statetoBstate #olitical relations ?et/een the United States and %ra1il #rimarily aim for #rudent coe>istence, #ossi?le colla?oration and minimal collision5 3hile the United States moves ahead to/ards the consolidation of an uncontested #o/er #osition, %ra1il searches for a secure and legitimate economic and #olitical #latform in South America5 %ra1il2s economic relations /ith the United States today are far more com#le> than they /ere +) years ago, covering a multifaceted set of trade negotiations and financial6monetary #ressures5 %ilateral trade develo#ments have ?ecome ine>trica?ly lin=ed to multilateral trade dis#utes carried for/ard at the 3DH and to regional trade negotiations5 -rom the ?eginning of the Lula administration more innovations /ere e>#ected in interstate regional trade negotiations than in the relationshi# /ith #rivate investors, the ?an=ing system and the 3ashingtonB?ased multilateral credit institutions5 During the first year of the Lula administration the -ree Drade of the Americas &-DAA; negotiations ?ecame the crucial terrain of ?ilateral relations, and an increasingly fragile one5 Dhrough ())+())9, as ?oth countries coB chaired the #rocess, the -DAA negotiations lost their /ay and turned into a USMercosur ?attlefield, fragmenting into sets of #arallel negotiations ?et/een 3ashington and the other su?regional ?locs &Cari??ean, Central America and Andean community;5 Concerns /ere raised in the US, al?eit discreetly, regarding the #ossi?ility that a more active %ra1il could assem?le

South America into a single ?loc that /ould desta?ili1e 3ashington2s #reBeminence in the hemis#here5 As %ra1il aims to ?ecome more active in regional affairs, clashes /ith the US in regional trade and security issues tend to #olitici1e US hemis#heric affairs, and the idea that %ra1il could ?e forging a unified regional front in negotiations /ith the United States has gained some im#etus /ithin South American di#lomatic and #olitical circles5 !n fact, ho/ever, the inauguration of the Lula administration has led to a more #ositive character in the sha#e and direction of US%ra1il relations5 -or %ra1il, it is not easy to deal /ith the constraints im#osed ?y the #erennial status of South America as a US s#here of influence5

0% primacy prevents global conflict ) diminishing power creates a vacuum that causes transition wars in multiple places
Broo9s et al ! [Ste#hen G5 %roo=s is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College5G5 John !=en?erry is the Al?ert G5 Mil?an= Professor of Politics and !nternational Affairs at Princeton University in the De#artment of Politics and the 3oodro/ 3ilson School of Pu?lic and !nternational Affairs5 .e is also a Glo?al $minence Scholar at Kyung .ee University53illiam C5 3ohlforth is the Daniel 3e?ster Professor in the De#artment of Government at Dartmouth College5 ,DonVt Come .ome, America0 Dhe Case against "etrenchment4, 3inter ()*+, Iol5 +:, o5 +, Pages :B'*,htt#066///5mit#ress@ournals5org6doi6a?s6*)5**E(6!S$COaO))*):, GD! -ile\ A core #remise of dee# engagement is that it #revents the emergence of a far more dangerous glo?al security environment5 -or one thing, as noted a?ove, the United States2 overseas #resence gives it the leverage to restrain #artners from ta=ing #rovocative action5 Perha#s more im#ortant, its core alliance commitments also deter states /ith as#irations to regional hegemony from contem#lating e>#ansion and ma=e its #artners more secure, reducing their incentive to ado#t solutions to their security #ro?lems that threaten others and thus sto=e security dilemmas5 Dhe contention that engaged U5S5 #o/er dam#ens the ?aleful effects of anarchy is consistent /ith influential variants of realist theory5 !ndeed, argua?ly the scariest #ortrayal of the /arB#rone /orld that /ould emerge a?sent the ,American Pacifier4 is #rovided in the /or=s of John Mearsheimer, /ho forecasts dangerous multi#olar regions re#lete /ith security com#etition, arms races, nuclear #roliferation and associated #reventive /artem#tations, regional rivalries, and even runs at regional hegemony and fullBscale great #o/er /ar5 :( .o/ do retrenchment advocates, the ?ul= of /hom are realists, discount this ?enefit7 Dheir arguments are com#licated, ?ut t/o ca#ture most of the variation0 &*; U5S5 security guarantees are not necessary to #revent dangerous rivalries and conflict in $urasiaJ or &(; #revention of rivalry and conflict in $urasia is not a U5S5 interest5 $ach res#onse is connected to a different theory or set of theories, /hich ma=es sense given that the /hole de?ate hinges on a com#le> future counterfactual &/hat /ould ha##en to $urasia2s security setting if the United States truly disengaged7;5 Although a certain ans/er is im#ossi?le, each of these res#onses is nonetheless a /ea=er argument for retrenchment than advocates ac=no/ledge5 Dhe first res#onse flo/s from defensive realism as /ell as other international relations theories that discount the conflictBgenerating #otential of anarchy under contem#orary conditions5 :+ Defensive realists maintain that the high e>#ected costs of territorial conFuest, defense dominance, and an array of #olicies and #ractices that can ?e used credi?ly to signal ?enign intent, mean that $urasia2s ma@or states could manage regional multi#olarity #eacefully /ithout theAmerican #acifier5 "etrenchment /ould ?e a ?et on this scholarshi#, #articularly in regions /here the =inds of sta?ili1ers that nonrealist theories #oint toRsuch as democratic governance or dense institutional lin=agesRare either a?sent or /ea=ly #resent5 Dhere are three other ma@or ?odies of scholarshi#, ho/ever, that might give decisionma=ers #ause ?efore ma=ing this ?et5 -irst is regional e>#ertise5 eedless to say, there is no consensus on the net security effects of U5S5 /ithdra/al5 "egarding each region, there are o#timists and #essimists5 -e/ e>#erts e>#ect a return of intense great #o/er com#etition in a #ostBAmerican

$uro#e, ?ut many dou?t $uro#ean governments /ill #ay the #olitical costs of increased $U defense coo#eration and the ?udgetary costs of increasing military outlays5 :9 Dhe result might ?e a $uro#e that is inca#a?le of securing itself from various threats that could ?e desta?ili1ing /ithin the region and ?eyond &e5g5, a regional conflict a=in to the *AA)s %al=an /ars;, lac=s ca#acity for glo?al security missions in /hich U5S5 leaders might /ant $uro#ean #artici#ation, and is vulnera?le to the influence of outside rising #o/ers5 3hat a?out the other #arts of $urasia /here the United States has a su?stantial military #resence7 "egarding the Middle $ast, the ?alance ?egins tos/ing to/ard #essimists concerned that states currently ?ac=ed ?y 3ashingtonR nota?ly !srael, $gy#t, and Saudi Ara?iaRmight ta=e actions u#on U5S5 retrenchment that /ould intensify security dilemmas5 And concerning $ast Asia, #essimismregarding the region2s #ros#ects /ithout the American #acifier is #ronounced5 Argua?ly the #rinci#al concern e>#ressed ?y area e>#erts is that Ja#an and South Korea are li=ely to obtain a nuclear capacity and increase their military commitments, /hich could sto=e a destabilizing reaction from China5 !t is nota?le that during the Cold 3ar, ?oth South Korea and Dai/an moved to o?tain a nuclear /ea#ons ca#acity and /ere only constrained from doing so ?y astillBengaged United States5 :' Dhe second ?ody of scholarshi# casting dou?t on the ?et on defensive realism2s sanguine #ortrayal is all of the research that undermines its conce#tion of state #references5 Defensive realism2s o#timism a?out /hat /ould ha##en if the United States retrenched is very much de#endent on its#articularRand highly restrictiveRassum#tion a?out state #referencesJ once /e rela> this assum#tion, then much of its ?asis for o#timism vanishes5 S#ecifically, the #rediction of #ostBAmerican tranFuility throughout $urasia rests on the assum#tion that security is the only relevant state #reference, /ith security defined narro/ly in terms of #rotection from violent e>ternal attac=s on the homeland5 Under that assum#tion, the security #ro?lem is largely solved as soon as offense and defense are clearly distinguisha?le, and offense is e>tremely e>#ensive relative to defense5 %urgeoning research across the social and other sciences, ho/ever,undermines that core assum#tion0 states have #references not only for security ?ut also for #restige, status, and other aims, and theyengage in tradeBoffs among the various o?@ectives5 :E !n addition, they define security not @ust in terms of territorial #rotection ?ut in vie/ of many and varied milieu goals5 !t follo/s that even states that are relatively secure may nevertheless engage in highly com#etitive ?ehavior5 $m#irical studies sho/ that this is indeed sometimes the case5 :: !n sum, a ?et on a ?enign #ostretrenchment $urasia is a ?et that leaders of ma@or countries /ill never allo/ these nonsecurity #references to influence their strategic choices5 Do the degree that these ?odies of scholarly =no/ledge have #redictive leverage, U5S5 retrenchment /ould result in a significant deterioration in the security environment in at least some of the /orld2s =ey regions5 3e have already mentioned the third, even more alarming ?ody of scholarshi#5 Hffensive realism #redicts thatthe /ithdra/al of the American #acifier /ill yield either a com#etitive regional multi#olarity com#lete /ith associated insecurity, arms racing, crisis insta?ility, nuclear #roliferation, and the li=e, or ?ids for regional hegemony, /hich may ?e ?eyond the ca#acity of local great #o/ers to contain &and /hich in any case /ould generate intensely com#etitive ?ehavior, #ossi?ly including regional great #o/er /ar;5

biofuels turn
3urn ) Brazilian soft power allows the country to e6pand its biofuel mar9ets 7algaard, - PhD h London School of $conomics and Political ScienceJ Graduate Deaching Assistant at London School of $conomicsJ Assistant $ditor at "oyal United Services !nstituteJ "esearcher at %ra1ilian !nstitute of !nternational "elationsJ $nergy Analyst &Klaus Dalgaard, June ()*(, &on on School of %conmics an (olitical Science ,Dhe energy statecraft of %ra1il0 #romoting ?iofuels as an instrument of %ra1ilian foreign #olicy, ())+B()*)4 htt#066etheses5lse5ac5u=6'M'6*6DalgaardO$nergyOStatecraftO%ra1ilO()*(5#df;66J$S Dhe Zconditionalist2 a##roach to the economic statecraft literature in !nternational "elations and -oreign Policy Analysis see=s to esta?lish the conditions under /hich economic instruments of foreign #olicy are li=ely to ?e effective5 Dhis thesis a##lies these conditions to a s#ecific set of economic instruments of foreign #olicy, namely energy resources, the use of /hich is here referred to as Zenergy statecraft25 Dhe conditions for successful im#lementation of energy resources as an instrument of foreign #olicy set forth in this study serve as a theoretical frame/or= to test a s#ecific case study of energy statecraft0 %ra1ilian ?iofuels5 Dhe choice of %ra1il as the only case study in this thesis is @ustified ?y its uniFueness in energy statecraft on t/o different levels0 em#irical and theoretical5 $m#irically, among the relatively fe/ energyB e>#orting countries that use their energy resources as instruments of their foreign #olicy, %ra1il is the only one that uses ?iofuels for that #ur#ose, /hereas other countries that im#lement energy statecraft mostly do so /ith #etroleum and6or natural gas5 Dheoretically, %ra1il2s #romotion of ?iofuels to third countries is also uniFue ?ecause it is #ursued through soft #o/er attraction ?y encouraging emulation of its o/n successful e>#erience /ith ?iofuels rather than through hard #o/er0 ?ri?es or coercion5 Dhe case study is also analysed in the conte>t of a decade characterised ?y energy security concerns, including /orries over increasingly scarce traditional energy resources, s=yroc=eting oil #rices, unrelia?ility of conventional energy su##lies, and environmental threats5 All of these factors have ?oosted the advancement of ?iofuels /orld/ide5 -inally, the means through /hich %ra1il #ursues its goal of turning ethanol into a glo?al commodity is tested against the conditional criteria set out in the theoretical frame/or=5 Dhe thesis concludes that this #articular foreign #olicy strategy has ?een fruitless, /ith little #rogress made to/ards achieving its goal of Zcommoditi1ing2 ethanol in the short term, though its longBterm #ros#ects seem #romising5 Dheoretically, the strategy2s ineffectiveness is attri?uted to the international conte>t in /hich it too= #lace, rather than any inherent characteristic of energy resources as an instrument of foreign #olicy5 B6pansion of Brazilian bio"fuel industry decimates the environment ) damages the Amazon and Cerrado and increases transportation emissions %pecht, ! ) Legal Advisor, Pearlma=er .olsteins, !nc5, %5A5, LSU &Jonathan, A#ril (9, ()*+, %nvironmental &aw an (olicy )ounral #t U.C. Davis ,"aising Cane0 Cu?an Sugarcane $thanol2s $conomic and $nvironmental $ffects on the United States4, UC Davis, 9B(9B*+, htt#066environs5la/5ucdavis5edu6issues6+E6(6s#echt5#df;66J$S Dhe full de?ate over the environmental conseFuences of the %ra1ilian ?iofuel #roduction*** is largely ?eyond the sco#e of this Article5 Still, the #rimary issue in this dis#ute is /orth noting, ?ecause it accentuates one of the most significant differences ?et/een the U5S5 cornB?ased ethanol industry and the #otential Cu?an sugarcaneB?ased ethanol industry5 !n %ra1il, the e>#ansion of sugarcane #roduction to meet demand for ethanol #roduction has led to land use changes*): that #arallel the e>#ansion of corn #roduction for ethanol in the United States5 Clearing #ortions of the Ama1on rainforest R one of the most significant re#ositories of car?on on $arth**( R /ould re#resent an environmental cost of ethanol #roduction that

out/eighs its ?enefits5 Dhe Ama1on region, ho/ever, is largely unsuita?le for sugarcane #roduction5**+ %ut, sugarcane #roduction is contri?uting to destruction of another sensitive ha?itat, the ?ioBdiverse Cerrado savannah region of %ra1il5**9 Cu?an sugarcaneB?ased ethanol /ould have the environmental ?enefits of %ra1ilian sugarcaneB?ased ethanol /ithout its most o?vious negative factor, damaging ha?itat in the Cerrado5 Dhe environmental effects of ?iofuels de#end on a num?er of factors5 3hether or not a given ty#e of ?iofuel is environmentally ?eneficial ,de#ends on /hat the fuel is, ho/ and /here the ?iomass /as #roduced, /hat else the land could have ?een used for, ho/ the fuel /as #rocessed and ho/ it is used54**' Da=en together, these factors #oint to sugarcaneB?ased ethanol gro/n in Cu?a as one of the most environmentally friendly ?iofuels #ossi?le5 Dhe environmental ?enefits of using sugarcane to #roduce ethanol are numerous5 -irst, it is much more energy efficient to derive ethanol from sugarcane than corn5 Ma=ing ethanol from corn only creates a##ro>imately *5+ times the amount of energy used to #roduce it, ?ut ma=ing ethanol from sugarcane creates a##ro>imately eight times the amount of energy used to #roduce it5**E Second, unli=e much of the corn #resently gro/n in Great Plains states, sugarcane gro/n in Latin America does not need to ?e irrigated5**: Dhird, sugarcane reFuires relatively small amounts of chemical fertili1ers, her?icides, and #esticides5**M -ourth, /hereas most U5S5 ethanol refineries are #o/ered ?y coal or natural gas,**A sugarcane ethanol refineries can ?e #o/ered ?y ?agasse, a natural #roduct left over from the sugar refining #rocess5*() !n fact, refineries #o/ered /ith ?agasse can even #roduce more electricity than they need and sell5 $ach of these factors in favor of sugarcane ethanol is true of ethanol from %ra1il as /ell as of any #otential ethanol from Cu?a5 .o/ever, there are additional environmental factors that clinch Cu?an sugarcaneB?ased ethanol as one of the most environmentally friendly fuel sources availa?le to the United States under current technology5*(+ -irst, ?ecause Cu?a is closer to the United States, trans#orting ethanol from Cu?a to the United States /ould reFuire less energy than trans#orting ethanol from %ra1il to the United States &es#ecially if it is used in -lorida, an o#tion further e>#lored in the section on economic effects;5*(9 3he Amazon is 9ey to the biosphere ) deforestation leads to fires, destroys carbon sin9s, speeds up warming ) 9ills the global environment *alsh, - senior /riter for D!M$ maga1ine, covering energy and the environmentJ graduate h Princeton UniversityJ &%ryan, D!M$ Maga1ine, ,Ama1onia0 3hat2s .a##ening to the 3orld2s %iggest "ain -orest74, htt#066science5time5com6()*(6)*6*M6ama1oniaB/hatsBha##eningBtoBtheB /orldsB?iggestBrainBforest6;66J$S !2d say you have to see the Ama1on for yourself to understand ho/ vast it is, ?ut !2ve ?een there Rand even ! can2t imagine it5 Dhe rain forest is more than ( million sF5 milesRt/oBthirds the si1e of the continental United StatesRand the river system of the gigantic ?asin #roduces ()e of the /orld2s fresh/ater discharge5 Dhe forest holds *)) ?illion metric tons of car?onR eFuivalent to more than *) years2 /orth of glo?al fossilBfuel emissions5 And the Ama1on is the glo?al ca#ital of /ildlife ?iodiversity, /ith more s#ecies calling the forest and rivers home than scientists could ever ho#e to name5 ;t.s safe to say that as the Amazon goes, so goes the planet.s environment1 Dhe #ro?lem is that the Ama1on is anything ?ut secure5 As Ama1on ?asin nations li=e %ra1il have gro/n economically, they2ve moved to cut do/n the forest, ma=ing room for agriculture5 &3hich, it should ?e noted, is e>actly /hat Americans did to their o/n once vast $astern forests5; Dhe human #o#ulation in the %ra1ilian Ama1on has gro/n from E million in *AE) to (' million in ()*), /hile forest cover has declined to a?out M)e of its original area5 Deforestation rates have slo/ed in recent years, ?ut as a ne/ revie/ in this /ee=2s ature sho/s, the Ama1on ?asin is changing, under #ressure from natural varia?ility in the /eather, drought, glo?al /arming and deforestation5 Dhe Fuestion remains0 @ust ho/ resilient is the Ama1on7 MH"$0 "ain -orest for "ansom -rom the ature article, /ritten ?y $ric Davidson of the 3oods .ole "esearch Center and his colleagues0 Although the ?asinB/ide

car?on ?alance remains uncertain, evidence is emerging for a directional change from a #ossi?le sin= to/ards a #ossi?le source5 3here deforestation is /ides#read at local and regional scales, the dry season duration is lengthening and /et season discharge is increasing5 3e sho/ that the forest is resilient to considera?le natural climatic variation, ?ut glo?al and regional climate change forcings interact /ith landBuse change, logging and fire in com#le> /ays, generally leading to forest ecosystems that are increasingly vulnera?le to degradation5 S#ecifically, researchers /orry a?out Climate and /eather change0 Drought is a fact of life, even in the ultraB/et Ama1on5 Dhe $l i^o effect can #roduce lengthy droughts, /hile the corres#onding La i^a effect can lead to increased flo/ and even flooding5 Dhe ature #a#er notes that the intact Ama1on forestR/ith its dee# roots that can access soil /aterRis resistant to normal seasonal droughts, ?ut that the transitional forests and Cerrado &the tro#ical savannah; are much more vulnera?le5 %ut even the e>isting forest may find it difficult to /ithstand lengthy droughts of the sort that may ?ecome more common /ith climate changeR the severe ())' drought in the south/estern Ama1on resulted in the loss of several tons of living tree ?iomass car?on #er hectare5 Deforestation and landBuse change0 !t2s not Fuite true that the Ama1on is ?eing clear cutRas the ature #a#er descri?es, more small land holders in the Ama1on, even farmers, =ee# mature or secondary forests on more than half of their land5 Much of the forest that2s ?eing lost is ?eing converted to cro#land for soy?eansR%ra1il is a ma@or #roducerRas /ell as #astureland for cattle5 Still, attem#ts to cur? deforestation in the Ama1on a##ear to ?e /or=ingRforest clearing has fallen from a?out **,))) sF5 miles a year in ())9 to less than +,))) sF5 miles a year in ()**5 %ut if deforestation continues, it could change the very climate of the Ama1on, resulting in less #reci#itation over the region5 Dhere are even models that suggest that deforestation e>ceeds 9)e of the Ama1on ?asin, a ti##ing #oint could ?e reached that /ould vastly reduce #reci#itation and result in a forest ,die?ac=54 Dhat /ould ?e ?ad5 -orest fire0 !t2s no sur#rise that drought increases forest fire in the Ama1onRa?out *',))) sF5 miles of forest ?urned during the $l inoBinfluenced drought of *AAM5 %ut as fires ?ecome more common, they can reduce rainfall &?ecause of the action of the smo=e in the atmos#here; and retard forest regro/th5 -ires =ee# the Ama1on from ?ouncing ?ac=5 Greenhouse gases0 "ight no/ the Ama1on is a ma@or car?on sin=, suc=ing u# and storing some of the greenhouse gases /e emitRgases that /ould other/ise accelerate the /arming of the atmos#here5 Distur? the Ama1onRas /e2re doingRand the system may ?ecome less efficient at storing that car?on, thus s#eeding climate change5 Dhe good ne/s here is that studies indicate that the mature, intact Ama1on forest is still accumulating car?on5 %ut as the forest is distur?ed, it causes a net loss for car?on, and the Ama1on goes from ?eing an ally to an enemy in the fight against /arming5 Dhe conclusion here is the Ama1on is an unimagina?ly com#le> system, once that needs more systematic study ?efore /e can =no/ /hat2s really ha##ening /ithin the forest5 %ut it /ould ?e ?etter to understand that no/Rinstead of /aiting to see the conseFuences of change5

"" s1p1 e6pands biofuels

3urn ) the 01%1 closed e6ports to Brazilian biofuels ) e6pansion of regional prominence reinvigorates strategic ties to e6pand Brazil.s ethanol mar9et globally (essa and ,oland, : #rofessor in !nternational "elations h University of %ra1il &Antoio Carlos Lessa N Dennis "oland, ovem?er *, ()*) % itions &"Harmattan ,"elations internationales du %r]sil, Les chemins de la Puissance4 *olume +;66J$S !n ()):, during a visit of President %ush to %ra1il, ?oth countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding to Advance Coo#eration on %iofuels that /as #resented as a very significant ste# of coo#eration5 Dhe Memorandum focus on @oint research regarding ?iofuels, mainly ethanol, and on studies for the creation of an ethanol commodities mar=et5 Although the o##ortunities for coo#eration in this area, including #roduction in third #arty countries and environmental issues, are still ?eing hailed as very significant, and %ra1il has an im#ortant com#etitive advantage in sugar can ethanol #roduction, 0% mar9ets still remain closed to our e6ports 5 !n s#ite of trade ?arriers, strategically %ra1il is ?eing vie/ed ?y the US in a different light5 !n ())M, "ice included %ra1il ?y the US in a different light5 !n ())M, "ice included %ra1il as a ,sta=eholder of international order4 alongside China, !ndia, "ussia and South Africa5 !n several occasions, "ice also defined %ra1il as a ,regional leader and glo?al #artner4, stressing the relevance of its social agenda and the #rogress of the country as ,multiethnic di#lomacy45 &"!C$, ())' and "!C$, ())M;5 Dhe su##ort from U SC enlargement /as also #resent5 Some analysts as Hnis &())M;, Stu#hen and .achigian &())M; stressed %ra1il2s and other emerging nations role in the /orld2s ?alance of #o/er, and the need for the US to dee#en this relations /ith these nations as ,strategic #artners45 Dhe third #hase of current %ra1ilBUS relations is rooted in these changes started ?y %ush, and continued ?y Democrat President %arac= H?ama5

"" amazon 9- warming

Amazon deforestation ) comparatively outweighs emissions ) carbon sin9s and ghg releases mean it devastates warming Birenne, D ) graduate in !nternational Affairs h Carleston University &Arielle K5 $irenne, ,-rom Cutting Drees to Slashing $missions0 "educing Deforestation in %ra1il4, htt#066///5student#ulse5com6articles69A6fromBcuttingBtreesBtoBslashingBemissionsBreducingB deforestationBinB?ra1il;66J$S 3here, ho/ever, does %ra1il fit into this eFuation7 Li=e China and !ndia, %ra1il is a #rominent, #o#ulous develo#ing country and a mem?er of the Grou# of M2s ZPlusB'2 contingent, yet the dialogue on climate #rotection touches u#on this South American state far less often5[*\ 3hat can %ra1il2s leaders contri?ute to the glo?al antiBclimate change fight, and /hat #olitical and economic #ressures encourage6discourage their action7 Unli=e China and !ndia, %ra1il #roduces roughly threeBFuarters of its emissions through deforestation &%lunt ())9;J hence, though %ra1il must continue to im#lement climate #rotection measures in its energy sector, decreased deforestation /ill ?e essential to the country2s emissionsBcur?ing efforts5 Dhis #a#er /ill thus e>#lore the #otential for %ra1il to reduce its deforestation, analy1ing the #olitical and economic concerns that its leaders must address if reduction initiatives are to succeed5 Dhough multi#le actors are at /or= /ithin %ra1il2s forests, the #rinci#le #layers a##ear to ?e mediumB to largeBscale cattle ranchers5 Dhus, though its deforestation efforts may attem#t to dissuade every manner of deforester, %ra1il must focus greatest attention on the ranching grou#5 Key to this tas= is the e>#ansion of the %ra1ilian #olice #resence into the areas /here ranchers /or=5 Dhe analysis ?egins /ith an overvie/ of the relationshi# ?et/een deforestation and climate change and of general #ro#osals for forest #reservation5 e>t, an e>amination of %ra1il2s #articular deforestation scenario introduces the =ey #layers #er#etuating the %ra1ilian forest2s destruction, as /ell as the main #olitical and economic #ressures6incentives6concerns involved5 Also noted are government antiBdeforestation efforts to date5 Given %ra1il2s #resent situation and the #olitical6economic forces at #lay, the discussion shifts to #ro?e #otential strategies for dealing /ith deforestation concerns5 Deforestation as a Driver of Climate Change ,Dhere2s ?een a lot of fuss lately a?out ?urning the forest,4 remar=ed one %ra1ilian rancher, ,?ut everyone =no/s that it2s the -irst 3orld, not us, that2s res#onsi?le for the greenhouse effect5 !t2s the car?on emissions from all their cars5 Dhe amount generated ?y ?urning the forest is miniscule ?y com#arison4 &Fuoted in Le %reton *AA+0::;5 "ecent scientific analyses, ho/ever, indicate that fe/ things could ?e further from the truth5 Qes, the ?urning of fossil fuels is the #rime cul#rit in climate change, ?ut the Union of Concerned Scientists la?els deforestation, com?ined /ith ,other landBuse changes,4 as yielding the secondBmost greenhouse gas emissions &()):;5 Dhe !ntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change &!PCC; has li=e/ise identified fossilBfuel ?urning and deforestation as the to# contri?utors to the rise in atmos#heric car?on dio>ide, /ith ,most4 emissions in recent years resulting from fossil fuels ?ut a su?stantial *) to +) #ercent arising from landBuse changes, deforestation foremost among them &())*;5 Per the ())* !PCC re#ort, other emission sources ?ear minimal im#act in com#arison5( Moreover, Moutinho, Sch/art1man, and Santilli #lace deforestation2s contri?ution at () to (' #ercent of glo?al emissions &())'0:;5 Unfortunately, the current state of research thus leaves am?iguous the e>act #ro#ortion of climate change for /hich deforestation is res#onsi?le, yet these figures suggest that deforestation, aside from contri?uting the ?ul= of %ra1il2s emissions, remains a =ey driver of climate change for the #lanet as a /hole5 Dhe #henomenon is li=ely to loom large in the future as /ell0 ,!f current trends continue, tropical deforestation will release about ?:G as much carbon to the atmos#here as has been emitted from worldwide combustion of fossil fuels since the start of the industrial revolutionH &.oughton ())'0();5+ Dhe a?ove statistics ca#ture, al?eit im#erfectly, one side of the deforestationBclimate change dynamic0 deforestation

releases emissions, for /hen cho##ed trees ?urn or other/ise decay over time, the car?on once contained /ithin them flo/s into the atmos#here, #rimarily as car?on dio>ide ?ut also as methane and car?on mono>ide &.oughton ())'0*+;59 Dhe other /ay that deforestation harms the climate is that it in some cases eliminates car?on sin=s that could have ca#tured future emissions from other sources5 !n other /ords, forests, ?y a?sor?ing car?on from the atmos#here, ,sin=4 greenhouse gases, and as deforesters cho# do/n more trees, the /orld ?ecomes less a?le to co#e /ith its everBgro/ing emissions5 Dhe #otency of various forests2 sin= ca#acities varies, ?oth over time &-orests and the $uro#ean Union "esource et/or= n5d5; and s#ace5 Do /hat e>tent %ra1il2s forests, for e>am#le, serve as a car?on sin= remains un=no/n, /ith researcher Antjnio Man1i suggesting that though seFuestration occurs in #arts of %ra1il, ,each locale has its o/n s#ecificities4 &Fuoted in "ohter ())+0(;5 Dhus, though the #rimary concern a?out deforestation is the amount of greenhouse gas the #ractice immediately emits into the atmos#here, its o?literation of a #otential climateBchange mitigation tool is li=e/ise of concern5 Pros#ects for mitigating climate change through reduced deforestation are huge0 #er the most recent re#ort from the !PCC2s 3or=ing Grou# !!!, a##ro>imately half of the /orld2s ,mitigation #otential4 may lie in the #ossi?ility of cur?ing the #henomenon &()):0(*;5 Unfortunately, the full 3or=ing Grou# !!! re#ort, /hich details suggestions for incor#orating forest management into climate change mitigation initiatives, is not yet availa?le for citation or Fuotation5 Until the re#ort2s final release, analysts must rely on a summary thereof, /hich recommends several currently availa?le general strategies for offsetting deforestation2s im#act and6or cur?ing the #henomenon itself, among them afforestation, reforestation, and ,reduced deforestation4 &#5 *9;5 Afforestation entails the re#lanting of forest on land cleared several &e5g5, () to '); years earlier and used for nonBforest #ur#oses in the interim &!PCC ()))0E;5 "eforestation, in contrast, involves re#lanting on land that has ?een cleared ?ut not yet converted for alternative &e5g5, agricultural; useJ this ta=es #lace shortly after the deforestation originally occurs &!PCC ()))0E;5 %oth activities, instead of halting deforestation emissions themselves, encourage the reesta?lishment of car?on sin=s5 Dhe /isdom of such #ractices remains in Fuestion, ho/ever, for the -orests and the $uro#ean Union "esource et/or= &-$" ; notes that sun= car?on may ?urst ?ac= into the atmos#here follo/ing forest fire, insect infestation, decay, changes in land use, and other distur?ances &n5d5;5 -$" thus contends that reliance on car?on sin=s allo/s for increased anthro#ogenic emissions, /hich, though a?le to ?e seFuestered today, may threaten the atmos#here in the future5 Decreasing deforestation in the first #lace is thus #refera?le5 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Develo#ment Mechanism &CDM;, /hich allo/s entities from the industriali1ed /orld to earn credit for funding mitigative #rograms in develo#ing countries, can offer credit for afforestation and reforestation of areas cleared #rior to *AA) &Schlamadinger et al5 ())'0(E;5 !t cannot, ho/ever, #rovide credit for #revention of deforestation &-earnside ())'0EME;5 Parties to Kyoto re@ected inclusion of ,deforestation avoidance4 for a variety of reasons, including ,nonB#ermanence,4 the concern that forests saved today might ?e destroyed any/ay in the futureJ difficulties in determining e>actly ho/ much deforestation /ould have occurred under ?usinessBasBusual conditionsJ and the concern that industriali1ed countries might em?race the ease of #aying to reduce deforestation a?road at the e>#ense of ma=ing domestic cuts in emissions from fossilBfuel ?urning &Schlamadinger et al5 ())'0+);5' evertheless, e>#ansion of the CDM or the esta?lishment of a similar com#liance mechanism to include avoidance remains a #ossi?ility for the #ostBKyoto &i5e5, #ostB()*(; #eriod &Schlamadinger et al5 ())';5 Dhe %ra1ilian Conte>t Deforestation has /rea=ed havoc in ?oth of %ra1il2s largest ?iomes, the Ama1on rainforest and the smaller Cerrado, a region of savannas, /oodlands, grass, and forests &see Klin= and Machado ())'0:)M on the Cerrado;5 %ra1il2s #ortion of the Ama1on rainforest once stretched over a region roughly the si1e of 3estern $uro#e &-earnside ())'0EM*;5 -or centuries, those settling in %ra1il have cho##ed a/ay chun=s of the forest in order to secure livelihoods, yet until recently, their efforts have ?een of relatively limited magnitude5 ,Almost five centuries of $uro#ean

#resence ?efore *A:) deforested an area [*)) > *)+ =m(\ only slightly larger than Portugal,4 /rites -earnside &())'0EM*;, /hereas in the mere ++ years thereafter, total deforested s#ace &E9M5' > *)+ =m(; had gro/n larger than -rance &'9:5) > *)+ =m(;5 !n ())( alone, ne/ clearings encom#assed more land than the state of e/ Jersey &"ohter ())+0(;5 Similarly, %ra1il2s Cerrado /ithstood centuries of minor settlement ?y ative #eo#les and ,?ac=/oodsmen4 ?ut has recently fallen #rey to largeBscale destruction0 ,All that has changed, ho/ever, and during the last t/entyBfive or so years the cerrados have ?een e>tensively develo#ed k /ith the active encouragement of the %ra1ilian government4 &"atter, "i?eiro, and %ridge/ater ())E0MMBMA;5 Klin= and Machado estimate that since *A:) or so, settlers have destroyed over half of the Cerrado &())'0:)M;J though not the entire region /as originally forested, leaving the #revalence of Cerrado deforestation unclear, Klin= and Machado2s figures indicate considera?le human interference5

russia turn
3urn ) ,ussia would use the emergence of a hegemonic power in %outh America to further e6pansionism and subverts 01%1 power pro&ection Ieihan, J ?achelors in #olitical science h Druman State UniversityJ #ost graduate degree in Asian Studies h University of HtagoJ Iice President of Analysis at StratforJ Patterson School of Di#lomacy and !nternational Commerce &Peter Geihan, Se#tem?er *'th, ())M, Stratfor ,Dhe "ussian "esurgence and the e/BHld -ront4 htt#066///5stratfor5com6/ee=ly6())M)A*'OrussianOresurgenceOandOne/OoldOfront;66J$S !n the American case s#ecifically, the issue is one of continental control5 Dhe United States is the only country in the /orld that effectively controls an entire continent5 Me>ico and Canada have ?een sufficiently intimidated so that they can o#erate inde#endently only in a very limited sense5 &Dechnically, Australia controls a continent, ?ut /ith the some M' #ercent of its territory unusa?le, it is more accurate in geo#olitical terms to thin= of it as a small archi#elago /ith some very long ?ridges5; Dhis grants the United States not only a #otentially massive internal mar=et, ?ut also the a?ility to #ro@ect #o/er /ithout the fear of facing rearguard security threats5 U5S5 forces can ?e focused almost entirely on offensive o#erations, /hereas #otential com#etitors in $urasia must constantly ?e on their guard a?out the neigh?ors5 Dhe only thing that could threaten U5S5 security /ould ?e the rise of a $urasian continental hegemon5 -or the #ast E) years, "ussia &or the Soviet Union; has ?een the only entity that has had a chance of achieving that, largely due to its geogra#hic reach5 U5S5 strategy for co#ing /ith this is sim#le0 containment, or the creation of a net/or= of allies to hedge in "ussian #olitical, economic and military e>#ansion5 ADH is the most o?vious manifestation of this #olicy im#erative, /hile the SinoBSoviet s#lit is the most dramatic one5 Containment reFuires that United States counter "ussian e>#ansionism at every turn, crafting a ne/ coalition /herever "ussia attem#ts to ?rea= out of the strategic ring, and if necessary committing direct U5S5 forces to the effort5 Dhe Korean and Iietnam /ars R ?oth traumatic #eriods in American history R /ere manifestations of this effort, as /ere the %erlin airlift and the ?ac=ing of !slamist militants in Afghanistan &/ho incidentally /ent on to form al Caeda;5 < Dhe Georgian /ar in August /as sim#ly the first effort ?y a resurging "ussia to #ulse out, e>#and its security ?uffer and, ideally, in the Kremlin2s #lans, ?rea= out of the #ostBCold 3ar noose that other #o/ers have tied5 Dhe Americans &and others; /ill react as they did during the Cold 3ar0 ?y ?uilding coalitions to constrain "ussian e>#ansion5 !n $uro#e, the challenges /ill ?e to =ee# the Germans on ?oard and to =ee# ADH cohesive5 !n the Caucasus, the United States /ill need to deftly manage its Dur=ish alliance and find a means of engaging !ran5 !n China and Ja#an, economic conflicts /ill undou?tedly ta=e a ?ac=seat to security coo#eration5 < "ussia and the United States /ill struggle in all of these areas, consisting as they do the "ussian ?orderlands5 Most of the locations /ill feel familiar, as "ussia2s near a?road has ?een "ussia2s near a?road for nearly +)) years5 Dhose locations R the %altics, Austria, U=raine, Ser?ia, Dur=ey, Central Asia and Mongolia R that defined "ussia2s conflicts in times gone ?y /ill surface again5 Such is the ta#estry of history0 the ma@or #o/ers see=ing advantage in the same #laces over and over again5 < Dhe e/ HldB-ront< %ut not all of those fronts are in $urasia5 So long as U5S5 #o/er #ro@ection #uts the "ussians on the defensive, it is only a matter of time ?efore something along the cordon crac=s and the "ussians are either fighting a land /ar or facing a local insurrection5 "ussia must =ee# U5S5 efforts dis#ersed and ca#tured ?y events as far a/ay from the "ussian #eri#hery as #ossi?le R #refera?ly /here "ussian strengths can e>#loit American /ea=ness5 < So /here is that7 < Geogra#hy dictates that U5S5 strength involves coalition ?uilding ?ased on mutual interest and longBrange force #ro@ection, and internal U5S5 harmony is such that America2s intelligence and security agencies have no need to shine5 Unli=e "ussia, the United States does not have large, unruly, resentful, conFuered #o#ulations to =ee# in line5 !n contrast, recall that the multiethnic

nature of the "ussian state reFuires a #o/erful security and intelligence a##aratus5 o #lace ?etter reflects "ussia2s intelligence strengths and America2s intelligence /ea=ness than Latin America5 < Dhe United States faces no traditional security threats in its ?ac=yard5 South America is in essence a hollo/ continent, #o#ulated only on the edges and thus lac=ing a dee# enough hinterland to ever coalesce into a single hegemonic #o/er5 Central America and southern Me>ico are similarly fractured, #rimarily due to rugged terrain5 orthern Me>ico &li=e Canada; is too economically de#endent u#on the United States to seriously consider anything more vi?rant than ideological hostility to/ard 3ashington5 -aced /ith this =ind of local com#etition, the United States sim#ly does not /orry too much a?out the rest of the 3estern .emis#here R e>ce#t /hen someone comes to visit5 < Stretching ?ac= to the time of the Monroe Doctrine, 3ashington2s Latin American #olicy has ?een very sim#le1 3he 0nited %tates does not feel threatened ?y any local #o/er, ?ut it feels inordinately threatened by any Bastern Femispheric power that could ally with a local entity1 (atin American entities cannot greatly harm American interests themselves, ?ut they can be used as fulcrums by hostile states further abroad to stri9e at the core of the 0nited %tates. powerK its undis#uted command of orth America5 < !t is a fairly straightfor/ard e>ercise to #redict /here "ussian activity /ill reach its dee#est5 Hne only needs to revisit Cold 3ar history5 -uture "ussian efforts can ?e ?ro=en do/n into three ?road categories0 naval interdiction, drug facilitation and direct territorial challenge5 ,ussian imperialism will result in a 0%A,ussian nuclear war %caliger, J staff /riter for the e/ American &Charles Scaliger, Se#tem?er +), ())M, The New #merican ,-anning the -lames in Georgia, Dhe e/ American4 htt#066///5thene/american5com6/orldBmainmenuB(E6euro#eBmainmenuB+'6+A9;66Cu?a-ile An American defense of Georgia could ris= nuclear /ar, yet the %ush administration seems determined to turn this ?rush fire into a Cu?an Missile CrisisBli=e stareBdo/n5 Hccu#ying the territory ?et/een the %lac= and Cas#ian Seas, the rugged Caucasus Mountains, /here $uro#e and Asia meet, is a rough neigh?orhood5 .ome to do1ens of different languages ?elonging to three entirely se#arate stoc=s R the !ndoB$uro#ean, Altaic, and Caucasian #ro#er R and t/o ma@or /orld religions, Christianity and !slam, the Caucasus are ?oth a cultural crossroads and a #atch/or= of religious and ethnic animosities, some of them stretching ?ac= centuries5 !n an area /here Chechens, Georgians, Armenians, A1eris, Dagestanis, Hssetians, Kalmy=s, "ussians, Kurds, Dur=s, and many other ethnicities and tri?es @oc=ey for control of land and trade routes, conflicts are freFuent, often ?loody, and almost incom#rehensi?le to those foreign to the region5 Hne of those longBstanding conflicts, the rivalry ?et/een Georgia and a small autonomous region =no/n as South Hssetia, gra??ed headlines in August as a result of a Fuic= and decisive /ar ?et/een Georgia and "ussia5 Dhe /ar ?egan /hen Georgian troo#s, /ho had only days earlier #artici#ated in an international military e>ercise that also included roughly *,))) Americans, invaded South Hssetia and laid siege to Ds=hinvali, the regional ca#ital5 "ussia, long an ally of the South Hssetians & orth Hssetia is an autonomous territory or o?last /ithin "ussia;, counterattac=ed ?y land, sea, and air, routing the Georgian military and occu#ying South Hssetia, another Georgian region /ith secessionist designs named A?=ha1ia, and a considera?le s/ath of Georgian territory, including the im#ortant Georgian #ort of Poti on the %lac= Sea5 3estern leaders, including George %ush, /ho have ?een grooming GeorgiaVs #resident Mi=heil Saa=ashvili for years, res#onded /ith selfBrighteous outrage, demanding a return to the status Fuo ante5 Dhe /ar /as s/iftly cast in the American media as a SovietBstyle #o/er #lay ?y Mosco/, and dire /arnings a?out a second Cold 3ar /ere the order of the day5 %ut as is so often the case, there is much more than meets the eye to the ongoing Georgian conflict, the latest ?ut surely not the last conflagration in the Caucasus5 More Dhan Meets the $ye Dhe Hssetians, descendants of the Alans, a /arli=e tri?e /hich #artici#ated in the invasion

of the "oman $m#ire along /ith the Iandals and Goths, lived originally along the Don "iver ?ut /ere driven south into the Caucasus in the Middle Ages during the Mongol invasion5 Dheir language ?elongs to the !ndoB$uro#ean stoc= and is closely related to !ranian and Kurdish5 Most Hssetians converted to Christianity, and more than E) #ercent of them are Christian today, although there is also a si1a?le Muslim minority5 Dhe land /here many Hssetians chose to settle so many centuries ago, Georgia, has one of the oldest cultures on $arth and /as, after Armenia, the second country to ado#t Christianity as its official religion5 GeorgiaVs #eculiar Caucasian language has a /riting system all its o/n and literature stretching ?ac= many centuries5 %ecause of this, and ?ecause of her millenniaBlong occu#ancy of a large #ortion of the central Caucasus, Georgians have long vie/ed the Hssetians as modern interlo#ers, tres#assers on hallo/ed Georgian territory and undeserving of inde#endence5 %y contrast /ith the Hssetians, the A?=ha1 #eo#le of GeorgiaVs other ?rea=a/ay region have ?een in the Caucasus since time immemorial5 A?=ha1ia, stretching along the northeast coast of the %lac= Sea, a##arently converted to Christianity in the first half of the first millennium A5D5, and has ?een ?y turns an inde#endent state, a "oman conFuest, a #rinci#ality /ithin the %y1antine $m#ire, a #art of the medieval =ingdom of Georgia, and an Httoman #ossession5 Li=e Georgia and Hssetia, A?=ha1ia ?ecame a #art of the "ussian $m#ire in the first decade of the *Ath century, and li=e them /as later a?sor?ed into the Soviet Union as a #art of the Soviet "e#u?lic of Georgia5 3hen the Soviet Union ?ro=e u# in the early *AA)s, the ne/ly inde#endent nation of Georgia incor#orated the t/o former Soviet autonomous regions of A?=ha1ia and South Hssetia5 Georgian leader Gviad Gamsa=hurdia lost little time asserting control over the t/o restive regions, launching a /ar in *AA* against Hssetia, /hich had ?een in o#en revolt for t/o years5 "ussia entered the /ar on the side of the Hssetians, and after more than a year of ?itter fighting and several thousand deaths, a ceaseBfire /as signed restoring to Hssetia some measure of the autonomy &?ut not full inde#endence; that the Georgian #arliament had revo=ed in *AA)5 Gamsa=hurdia, although a genuine Georgian #atriot and longtime dissident against the Soviet government, /as, li=e many of his com#atriots, un/illing to give any #olitical recognition to GeorgiaVs minorities5 WGeorgia for GeorgiansW /as a #o#ular slogan at the time of inde#endence, and selfBdetermination on the #art of the reviled Hssetians /as not to ?e Bcontem#lated5 o sooner had the Hssetian conflict cooled in the summer of *AA( than Georgia invaded A?=ha1ia /ith several thousand troo#s, using the =idna##ing of a Georgian government minister as a #rete>t5 Dhe Georgians too= the A?=ha1 ca#ital Su=humi /ith little resistance, ?ut /ere eventually re#ulsed and driven from A?=ha1ia ?y a large force consisting of A?=ha1 militia and sym#athetic minorities from all over the Caucasus R Circassians, Chechens, Cossac=s, Hssetians, and others5 Dhe A?=ha1 #roceeded to e>#el or =ill large num?ers of Georgians, in a %al=anBstyle e#isode of Wethnic cleansingW little remar=ed in the 3est ?ut #ossi?ly costing tens of thousands of lives, ?oth A?=ha1 and Georgian5 $duard Shevardnad1e, former foreign minister of the Soviet Union under Gor?achev and sometime #resident of Georgia, /as in Su=humi at the time and narro/ly esca#ed death5 -rom the early VA)s to the #resent day, an uneasy status Fuo has held s/ay in ?oth ?rea=a/ay re#u?lics, /ith ?oth Georgia and "ussia maneuvering for control of the regions5 3ith the ouster of President Shevardnad1e in ())+ and the rise of Mi=heil Saa=ashvili, Georgian #olitics have ta=en a decidedly #roBAmerican tilt5 Georgia sent a very large contingent of troo#s into !raF R all of /hom /ere s#eedily evacuated and returned to Georgia, /ith American hel#, follo/ing the out?rea= of the August /ar R and, along /ith ne/ly assertive U=raine, a##lied for ADH mem?ershi#5 At the same time, Georgia has ?ecome a transit center for oil from the Cas#ian Sea5 Dhe %a=uBD?ilisiBCeyhan #i#eline, com#leted in ())', crosses the country en route to the Dur=ish coast, and the %a=uBSu#sa #i#eline, ?rought online in *AAA, ends at the Georgian %lac= Sea #ort of Su#sa5 Given the intracta?le enmities ?ound u# in the Georgian conflict, it /ould seem un/ise for America to ta=e sides or other/ise in@ect its influence, ?ut that is #recisely /hat the %ush government has chosen to do5 Io/ing to #ush for Georgian entry into ADH, the %ush administration has

leveled a steady ?arrage of criticism against Mosco/ for ?ehaving #recisely as the United States R or any great #o/er R is /ont to ?ehave in its s#here of influence5 W"ussia has invaded a sovereign neigh?oring state and threatens a democratic government elected ?y its #eo#le,W said President %ush5 WSuch an action is unacce#ta?le in the (*st century5555 "ussiaVs government must res#ect GeorgiaVs territorial integrity and sovereignty5W Given recent U5S5 military interventions in .aiti and Panama &not to mention !raF;, the %ush administrationVs moral #osturing over "ussiaVs Georgia adventure &in /hich a num?er of "ussian #eace=ee#ers /ere =illed ?efore Mosco/ ever launched her counterattac=; ring hollo/, to say the least5 or is there any ?asis for defending GeorgiaVs ADH am?itions, at least from an American #oint of vie/5 ADH already commits the United States Armed -orces to defend all sorts of outBofBtheB/ay #laces of no strategic value to the United States5 Lithuania, Latvia, and $stonia, former Soviet re#u?lics all, are already mem?ersJ is America ready to start 3orld 3ar !!! to defend them7 Qet that is #recisely /hat the ADH alliance /ill reFuire of us, should "ussia ever decide to reB anne> them, and it /ill do the same visBdBvis Georgia, should this trou?leB#rone Caucasus state ever ?ecome a mem?er5 Dhe Chief Motive As events stand, the Georgia6South Hssetia 3ar, a ?rief, inconseFuential flareBu# in a region /here the United States has no ?usiness loo=ing for trou?le, has already led to nearBnaval confrontation ?et/een "ussia and the United States in the %lac= Sea5 At the time of this /riting, "ussian ?om?ers are in the 3estern .emis#here &in Iene1uela; for the first time since the Cold 3ar, and the United States is threatening further uns#ecified measures against "ussia for her intransigence5 -or her #art, "ussia has /ithdra/n her military forces from most of Georgia #ro#er, ?ut has =e#t large garrisons in ?oth ?rea=a/ay regions and formally recogni1ed the inde#endence of ?oth5 !n s#ite of the triviality of the Caucasus flareBu#, the #o/ers that ?e in the 3est seem ?ent on antagoni1ing "ussia5 !mmediately after the Georgian conflict, the %ush administration announced a deal to station missile interce#tors R ostensi?ly to defend $uro#e against !ranian /arheads R in Poland5 "ussia res#onded ?y sending longBrange ?om?ers to Iene1uela and threatening to reBmilitari1e Cu?a5 Defense of Georgia or even of her oil #i#elines seems inadeFuate rationale for #otential nuclear /ar, yet the %ush administration seems determined to turn this regional ?rush fire into a Cu?an Missile CrisisBli=e international stareBdo/n5 Dhe chief motive for the e>aggerated hulla?aloo is the e>#ansion of ADH, /hich continues to a?sor? more nations and redefine its organi1ational mission almost t/o decades after the disintegration of the Soviet Union5 3hat /as once touted as a military alliance to defend the 3est and its interests against the communist menace has ?een reinvented as an allB#ur#ose glo?al military force5 ADH led the 3estern $uro#ean and American intervention in the various %al=an /ars in the *AA)s, and ADH forces are no/ in command of the /ar in Afghanistan, a conflict far removed from Cold 3ar animosities5 WPresumed dead more often than the hero in a melodrama,W U5S5 Am?assador to ADH "5 icholas %urns /rote in ())+, Wthe ne/ ADH =ee#s on defying the #unditsV #redictions ?y ada#ting itself to a ra#idly changing /orld5W A?sor#tion of Georgia, the U=raine, and other former Soviet re#u?lics has ?ecome a #rime o?@ective of the ADH organi1ation, as ADH SecretaryBGeneral Jaa# de .oo# Scheffer made clear in a recent s#eech in D?ilisi, the Georgian ca#ital5 WDhe #rocess of ADH enlargement /ill continue, /ith due caution ?ut also /ith a clear #ur#ose R to hel# create a sta?le, undivided $uro#e,W Scheffer said5 W o other country /ill have a veto over that #rocess, nor /ill /e allo/ our strong ties to Georgia to ?e ?ro=en ?y outside military intervention and #ressure5W !f the #ur#ose of ADH is no/ the creation of a Wsta?le, undivided $uro#e,W Americans /ould do /ell to /onder /hy America still ?elongs to the organi1ation5 After all, AmericaVs military /as created to #rotect America and her vital interests, not those of $uro#e, much less the remote and fractious Caucasus5 Qet if the $urocrats in charge of ADH have their /ay, Georgia, along /ith all her Caucasian ?roils and her ?lood feud /ith "ussia, /ill ?e dra/n into the alliance, an event that /ill ma=e /ar ?et/een 3ashington and Mosco/ much more li=ely than it ever /as during the Cold 3ar5

"" brazil 9- russia

Bmergence of Brazil as a regional power allows ,ussia to achieve strategic interests in the west %mith, D "esearcher for UK Defence Academy, PhD in Political Science h H>ford University &Mar= A, August ())A, ,"ussia N Latin America0 Com#etition in 3ashingtonVs W ear A?roadW74, August, !nternational "elations and Security et/or=, htt#066///5isn5eth15ch6DigitalB Li?rary6Pu?lications6Detail67ots'A*8)c'9e+?+B*eAcB?e*eB(c(9B aEaMc:)E)(++Nlng8enNid8*)9+99;66J$S Hverall, this is the conte>t /ithin /hich "ussia2s relations /ith Latin America should ?e #laced5 %"!C means that "ussia2s relations /ith %ra1il are #otentially of the greatest significance for Mosco/ in its dealings /ith Latin America, even though it could ?e argued that "ussia2s relationshi# /ith Iene1uela is currently the most im#ortant ?ilateral relationshi# Mosco/ has /ith any Latin American state5 %ra1il =ey %"!C #artner5%ra1il is ?ecoming a =ey focus of Mosco/ due largely to the fact that the t/o #o/ers are #art of the %"!C formation of states5 "ussia su##orts the %ra1ilian argument that the num?er of #ermanent mem?ers of the U Security Council ?e e>#anded5 !n a @oint article #u?lished in "ossiys=aya Ga1eta in Hcto?er ())M, Sergey Lavrov and %ra1ilian foreign minister Celso Amorim descri?ed %ra1il and "ussia as ,natural allies45(' Security Council secretary i=olay Patrushev had tal=s in Mosco/ in ovem?er ())M /ith the then %ra1ilian minister of the $>traordinary Ministry of Strategic Affairs, "o?erto Manga?eira Unger5 !n Hcto?er "osatom head Sergey Kiriyen=o visited %ra1il5 During this visit "ussia offered to sell %ra1il modern technology for the dee# e>#loration and #roduction of uranium, ne/ nuclear #o/er #lants and Wsu#erconductor technologiesW for transmitting energy5(E !n -e?ruary ())M5 %ra1ilian defence minister elson Jo?im visited Mosco/ for tal=s /ith his "ussian counter#art Anatoly Serdyu=ov5(: Mosco/ is o?viously interested in #ossi?le militaryBtechnical coo#eration /ith %ra1il5 !n ovem?er ())M it /as re#orted that %ra1il #urchased in Hcto?er t/elve "ussian MiB+'M helico#ters5(M .o/ever %ra1il is interested in develo#ing its o/n armaments industry, and may to a certain e>tent see "ussia as a com#etitor in this field5 Dhere is interest on ?oth sides in develo#ing coo#eration in the s#ace and !D sectors5 %ra1il has coo#erated /ith U=raine in the s#ace sector, setting u# the Alcantara Cyclone S#ace Centre5 Dhe Pivdenmash enter#rise in Dne#ro#etrovs= /as to manufacture the CycloneB9 roc=et to launch satellites5 .o/ever U=raine2s financial difficulties resulted in #roduction delays5 "ussia #ro#osed to %ra1il that an alternative to CycloneB9 ?e develo#ed as its fuel is not environmentally friendly5(A !n s#ring ())M, "ussia and %ra1il concluded an agreement to develo# a series of launch vehicles as #art of %ra1il2s Cru1eiro do Sul #rogramme5 "ussia and %ra1il /ill develo# a roc=et ?ased on the "ussian Angara vehicle5 Dhe first stage of the %ra1ilian Gamma, Delta and $#silon launchers /ill ?e #o/ered ?y a unit ?ased on the "DB *A* engine develo#ed for the Angara roc=et5 Coo#eration /ith "ussia is li=ely to ena?le the %ra1ilian s#ace #rogramme to ma=e significant #rogress5 3hen he visited %ra1il in ovem?er ())M, Medvedev discussed the develo#ment of energy coo#eration /ith Petro?ras5 Ga1#rom is to o#en a re#resentative office in %ra1il in ())A, and Medvedev e>#ressed the ho#e that the trade turnover /ould ?e increased to T*) ?illion ?y the end of ())M &in Se#tem?er ())M it stood at TE ?illion;5 Medvedev also urged that the structure of trade should change from the e>change of %ra1ilian ra/ materials for "ussian mineral fertili1er to greater coo#eration in high technology sectors5 Medvedev s#o=e of develo#ing a technological alliance /ith %ra1il5+) Lavrov and Amorim s#o=e in their "ossiys=aya Ga1eta article of coo#eration in the air#lane construction and nanoBtechnology sectors5 Dhe "ussian leadershi# may feel that there is greater sco#e for technological coo#eration /ith a %"!C #artner such as %ra1il than /ith ma@or /estern #o/ers, /hich Mosco/ may see as ?eing more li=ely to try and use technological coo#eration as a means of =ee#ing "ussia in a su?ordinate #osition5 !n connection /ith this #lanned

technological alliance, Prime Minister Iladimir Putin and %ra1ilian IiceBPresident Jose Alencar @ointly head a high level commission on coo#eration ?et/een the t/o states5 Dhere is a @oint "ussoB%ra1ilian /or=ing grou#, /hich o#erates under the aus#ices of the "ussian -ederation Security Council and %ra1ilian Ministry of Strategic Affairs5 Dhis is the first such coo#eration organ that "ussia has /ith any Latin American state5+* Medvedev also #ut much em#hasis on "ussoB%ra1ilian coo#eration /ithin the frame/or= of the %"!C grou#ing of states5+( Dhe "ussian President also sees %ra1il as a =ey #artner of "ussia in su##orting Mosco/2s arguments for a restructuring of the international financial system5 Dhe %ra1ilian leadershi#, li=e its "ussian counter#art, has ?een critical of the role #layed ?y the 3est in glo?al financial management that led to the financial crisis of ())M5

dollar war turn

Brazil leadership leads to dollar replacement ) 01%1 action reverses the trend 3essman, - B Ph5D5 Political Science, University of Colorado, assistant #rofessor of
!nternational Affairs and associate director of the Center for the Study of Glo?al !ssues &Glo?is; at the University of Georgia &%roc= -5, ,System Structure and State Strategy0 Adding .edging to the Menu,4 May ((nd, ()*(, Daylor and -rancis Hnline;66.AL %ra1il2s a##roach to mediation is e#itomi1ed ?y its a?ility to #rioriti1e the longBterm goal of integration over shortBterm #olicy victories5 -or e>am#le, %rasilia has continually refrained from #unishing Argentina for trade violations in /a=e of its ())* economic crisis and has also maintainedRdes#ite the increasingly @arring rhetoric from .ugo Chave1Rrather /arm relations /ith Iene1uela5 Perha#s the clearest e>am#le of Dy#e % strategic hedging is found in %ra1il2s efforts to ?uild regional economic organi1ations that can function inde#endently of the United States, /estern `nancial institutions, and the US dollar5 !n the summer of ()**, U ASU" `nance and foreign affairs ministers held a series of meetings in order to develo# a #lan that /ould insulate the region from future economic crises in $uro#e and the United States5:M !n #articular, the U ASU" countries /ere see=ing a strategy that /ould successfully reduce their reliance on AmericanBdominated `nancial institutions li=e the !nternational Monetary -und &!M-; and 3orld %an=, /hile also allo/ing the region to move a/ay from the use of US dollars as the dominant currency for regional trade5 As Argentina2s De#uty $conomy minister "o?erto -eletti e>#lained, ,3hat /as a##roved ?y the meeting of ministers as an action #lan is to advance in the design of a multilateral #ayments system /hich tends to use local currencies5 Dhe tendency is to gradually re#lace the U5S5 dollar in regional trade54:A %ecause %ra1il is a heavy e>#orter and is also the target of more and more foreign investment, regional de#endence on the US dollar is threatening ?ecause the country2s gro/ing reserves are su?@ect to signi`cant de#reciation as the dollar falls in relation to the %ra1ilian real5 3hile the accumulation of US dollars /as at one #oint seen as a desira?le conseFuence of a #ositive trade ?alance and gro/ing foreign investment, the erosion of the dollar has led %ra1ilian leaders to #ush for the use of local currencies in regional trade and investment5M) %ra1ilian leaders have also sought to esta?lish a Latin American "eserves -und Council &-LA";5 Dhe -LA" /ould su#ervise a regional reserve ?an= &%anco del Sur; that /ould come to the aid of states that /ere e>#eriencing ?alance of #ayments #ro?lems5M* Dhe -LA" /ould serve as a regional eFuivalent of the !M- and /ould reduce regional de#endence on that AmericanBled institution5 Li=e the Asian Monetary -und that emerged in the /a=e of the `nancial crisis of *AA: and *AAM, a %anco del Sur /ould not ?e seen as a tool for confronting /estern `nancial institutions, ?ut rather a /ay to reduce regional de#endence on them5 -or %ra1il, the ?an= /ould ?e a sta?ili1ing force in the regionJ countries /ith the highest #otential for ?alance of #ayments #ro?lemsRIene1uela, %olivia, and $cuadorRare also those that /ould have the hardest time o?taining conditional loans from the !M-5 M( %ra1il2s military, di#lomatic, and economic a##roaches to regional leadershi# in South America are designed to re#lace #u?lic goods that havehistorically ?een #rovided ?y the United States5

0% dollar causes currency wars$goes global

,athbone, ! B the -inancial Dimes2 Latin American editor, /or=ed as an economist and a @ournalist at the 3orld %an=, graduate of H>ford and Colum?ia Universities &John Paul, -e?ruary *(th, ()*+, ,Currency fears s#read in Latin America,4 -inancial Dimes,

htt#066///5ft5com6intl6cms6s6)6c:E'ec*aB:(*?B**e(BMAf?B ))*99fea?9Aa5htmlla>11(Q*:Jd-DQ;66.AL Latin America is going %ra1ilian5 Previously, it /as only %ra1il, the region2s ?iggest economy, that com#lained a?out the com#etitive devaluations generated ?y moneyB#rinting in the /est, the soBcalled currency /ars5 o/, ho/ever, as Ja#an @oins the rush to #rint money and devalue, the more orthodo> and freeBtrading Latin economies investor darlings such as Me>ico, Chile, Colom?ia and Peru also fear catching a ?ullet5 Dhe issue may /ell dominate this /ee=2s G() meeting in Mosco/, given that Asian e>#orters such as South Korea are also /orried a?out currency a##reciation5 , ot all Latin American #olicy ma=ers have used the term currency /ar,4 says Luis Hganes, head of Latin America research at JPMorgan5 %ut they ,are e>#ressing increasing concern and reacting to it45 Last /ee=, -eli#e LarraSn, Chile2s finance minister, lamented that com#etitive devaluations of glo?al currencies from Fuantitative easing, or C$, could lead ,to ne/ forms of trade #rotectionism45 AgustSn Carstens, the head of Me>ico2s central ?an=, /arned the follo/ing day that massive crossB?order ca#ital flo/s could lead to a ,#erfect storm4 of economic #ro?lems5 .e added that ,concerns of assetB#rice ?u??les fed ?y credit ?ooms are starting to rea##ear45 Sym#tomatic of this /as a t/eet last Duesday ?y %ill Gross, the coBchief investment officer of Pimco, the ?ond fund, /hich #raised the Me>ican #eso as a ,great currency4 and that led an almost * #ercentage #oint @um# in the currency5 Such concerns are the o##osite of those in more mismanaged Latin economies, such as Iene1uela, /hich devalued on -riday, or Argentina, ?oth of /hich are suffering ca#ital outflo/s5 3hat ma=es this round of currency /ar com#laints different from /hen %ra1il coined the #hrase in ()*), is that after years of orthodo> #olicy ma=ing the Me>ican, Colom?ian, Peruvian and Chilean economies, /hich have a com?ined economic out#ut of T(5*tn, en@oy lo/er inflation and interest rates, and smaller ?udget deficits5 And yet they are still suffering5 ,Dhe term Zcurrency /ars2 is often used as a sca#egoat ?y #olicy ma=ers,4 says Michael .enderson, Latin America economist at Ca#ital $conomics, a consultancy5 ,Dhe fact that #eo#le such as Me>ico2s Carstens are #ic=ing u# on the idea lends it more credence54 Certainly, the evidence seems clear5 Dhe Me>ican, Chilean, Colom?ian and Peruvian currencies all a##reciated ?y a?out *) #er cent against the dollar last year5 Dhe average of their inflationBad@usted, trade /eighted currencies is no/ also M #er cent a?ove the *)Byear average5 Dhis has #rom#ted ho/ls of #rotest from local e>#orters, and increased #ressure on #oliticians to ,do something4 to hel#5 ,3e firmly criticise the monetary #olicies of develo#ed economies /hich are generating e>cessive international liFuidity and overvaluing currencies such as ours,4 Mauricio CPrdenas, Colom?ia2s finance minister, told the -inancial Dimes5

""inflaiton impact
(A is moving away from the dollar$dollar collapses the global economy and causes massive inflation
<uzman, ! B researcher and /riter /ith a focus on #olitical, economic, media and historical s#heres, graduate of .unter College in e/ Qor= City &Dimothy Ale>ander, ,!nvesting in Silver, Moving out of the Dollar0 Dhe "oman Denarius, the American dollar and the "eturn of Silver74 Glo?al "esearch, -e?ruary )9, ()*+, htt#066///5glo?alresearch5ca6investingBinBsilverB /ea=nessBofBtheBdollarBtheBromanBdenariusBtheBamericanBdollarBandBtheBreturnBofB silver6'+(*E*);66.AL !f the US dollar colla#ses, it /ill have a dramatic im#act on the /orld economy ?ecause the dollar is the standard unit of currency for commodity mar=ets, es#ecially gold and oil5 Dhe U5S5 dollar is still the /orld2s reserve currency, ?ut the reality is that it can lead the /orld into an economic de#ression5 ations /ith large e>ternal de?ts /ill not ?e a?le to trade sufficiently to earn the needed income to service their de?ts5 Dhey /ill slide into ?an=ru#tcy5 .o/ever, countries such as "ussia and China are ta=ing necessary ste#s to avoid an economic tsunami caused ?y a colla#se of the US dollar ?y announcing in ()*) that they /ill use their o/n currencies /hich is the "ussian "u?le and the Chinese Quan for ?ilateral trade5 !ran and !ndia decided to trade gold for oil due to US sanctions on !ran ?ecause of its nuclear #rogram5 Ja#an and China announced that they /ill also trade in their o/n currencies des#ite di#lomatic #ro?lems involving the Diaoyu !slands in the $ast China Sea5 Hne thing is certain, the /orld is slo/ly ?ut surely moving a/ay from the US dollar5 Dhe cost of living among #eo#le /ho deal /ith the US dollar on a daily ?asis es#ecially ?y those /ho live /ithin the United States /ill see a ra#id decline in the standards of living due to -ederal "eserve %an=2s de?asement of the dollar ?y #rinting unlimited amounts of money through Cuantitative easing &C$;5 Dhe -ederal "eserve2s action /ill cause food, clothing and energy #rices to soar, /hich /ill hurt the average family5 As the US -ederal "eserve %an= continues to #rint dollars, the result /ill ?e inflation5 !t /ill cause #anic on the /orld mar=ets and civil unrest among the #eo#le /ho reali1e that the US dollars they de#end on /ould no longer ?e a?le to ?uy their ?asic necessities5 3hat can ?e done around the /orld to avoid such a scenario /hen the colla#se of the dollar is inevita?le7 .istory #roves that silver can ?ecome an alternative currency that can re#lace the dollar, although many countries are #urchasing large amounts of gold such as "ussia and China /ith other countries in Latin America and Asia follo/ing in the same footste#s5 .o/ever, silver /ill still ?e a good o#tion5 At least you have a choice in /hich #recious metals you can invest in5 Silver has ?een used for thousands of years as a monetary system for the economies of #ast civili1ations5

;nflation 9ills the economy ) destruction of middle class and political instability
Ia9aria DR$ditor of e/s/ee=, %A from Qale, PhD in #ol sci, .arvard5 .e serves on the ?oard of Qale University, Dhe Council on -oreign "elations, Dhe Drilateral Commission, and Sha=es#eare and Com#any5 amed Wone of the (* most im#ortant #eo#le of the (*st CenturyW &-areed, Dhe Secrets of Sta?ility, *( Decem?er ())A, htt#066///5fareed1a=aria5com6articles6articles5html; Dhe second force for sta?ility is the victoryRafter a decadesBlong struggleRover the cancer of inflation5 DhirtyBfive years ago, much of the /orld /as #lagued ?y high inflation, /ith dee# social and #olitical conseFuences5 Severe inflation can ?e far more disru#tive than a recession, ?ecause /hile recessions ro? you of ?etter @o?s and /ages that you might have had in the

future, inflation ro?s you of /hat you have no/ ?y destroying your savings5 !n many countries in the *A:)s, hy#erinflation led to the destruction of the middle class, /hich /as the ?ac=ground condition for many of the #olitical dramas of the eraRcou#s in Latin America, the sus#ension of democracy in !ndia, the overthro/ of the shah in !ran5 %ut then in *A:A, the tide ?egan to turn /hen Paul Iolc=er too= over the U5S5 -ederal "eserve and /aged /ar against inflation5 Hver t/o decades, central ?an=s managed to decisively ?eat do/n the ?east5 At this #oint, only one country in the /orld suffers from Bhy#erinflation0 Gim?a?/e5 Lo/ inflation allo/s #eo#le, ?usinesses, and governments to #lan for the future, a =ey #recondition for sta?ility5

B6tinction
5ead, DJ Senior -ello/ Council on -oreign "elations LA Dimes, MB(+ $ven /ith stoc= mar=ets tottering around the /orld, the #resident and the Congress seem determined to s#end the ne>t si> months arguing a?out dress stains5 Doo ?ad5 Dhe United States and the /orld are facing /hat could gro/ into the greatest threat to /orld #eace in E) years5 -orget suicide car ?om?ers and Afghan fanatics5 !tVs the financial mar=ets, not the terrorist training cam#s that #ose the ?iggest immediate threat to /orld #eace5 .o/ can this ?e7 Dhin= a?out the mother of all glo?al meltdo/ns0 the Great De#ression that started in *A(A5 U5S5 stoc=s ?egan to colla#se in Hcto?er, staged a rally, then the mar=et headed south ?ig time5 At the ?ottom, the Do/ Jones industrial average had lost A)e of its value5 3ages #lummeted, thousands of ?an=s and ?ro=erages /ent ?an=ru#t, millions of #eo#le lost their @o?s5 Dhere /ere similar horror stories /orld/ide5 %ut the ?iggest im#act of the De#ression on the United StatesBB and on /orld historyBB/asnVt money5 !t /as ?lood0 3orld 3ar !!, to ?e e>act5 Dhe De#ression ?rought Adolf .itler to #o/er in Germany, undermined the a?ility of moderates to o##ose Jose#h StalinVs #o/er in "ussia, and convinced the Ja#anese military that the country had no choice ?ut to ?uild an Asian em#ire, even if that meant /ar /ith the United States and %ritain5 DhatVs the thing a?out de#ressions5 Dhey arenVt @ust ?ad for your 9)*&=;5 Let the /orld economy crash far enough, and the rules change5 *e stop playing E3he /rice is ,ightE and start up a new round of E%aving /rivate ,yan1E