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Quan Tri Rui Ro Lai Suat Tai Ngan Hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam Chi Nhanh Can Tho
Quan Tri Rui Ro Lai Suat Tai Ngan Hang TMCP Ngoai Thuong Viet Nam Chi Nhanh Can Tho
LUN VN TT NGHIP
QUN TR RI RO LI SUT TI
NGN HNG TMCP NGOI THNG
VIT NAM CHI NHNH CN TH
Cn Th 2009
LI CM N
LI CAM OAN
Ti cam oan rng ti ny l do chnh ti thc hin, cc s liu thu thp v
kt qu phn tch trong ti l trung thc, ti khng trng vi bt k ti
nghin cu khoa hc no.
MC LC
Trang
CHNG 1: GII THIU.......................................................................................1
1.1. Vn nghin cu............................................................................................1
1.1.1. S cn thit nghin cu .............................................................................1
1.1.2. Cn c khoa hc thc tin .........................................................................2
1.2. Mc tiu nghin cu ........................................................................................3
1.2.1. Mc tiu chung ..........................................................................................3
1.2.2. Mc tiu c th ..........................................................................................3
1.3. Phm vi nghin cu..........................................................................................3
1.3.1. Khng gian ................................................................................................3
1.3.2. Thi gian....................................................................................................3
1.3.3. i tng nghin cu ................................................................................4
CHNG 2: PHNG PHP LUN V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU...5
2.1. Phng php lun ............................................................................................5
2.1.1. Khi nim ri ro li sut ............................................................................5
2.1.2. Tnh cht ri ro li sut..............................................................................7
2.1.3. Cc trng hp xy ra ri ro li sut .........................................................8
2.1.4. M hnh nh gi li trong o lng ri ro li sut .................................10
2.1.5. Mt s khi nim lin quan n m hnh nh gi li .............................11
2.2. Phng php nghin cu ..............................................................................12
2.2.1. Phng php thu thp s liu ..................................................................12
2.2.2. Phng php phn tch s liu ................................................................12
CHNG 3: KHI QUT V NGN HNG TMCP NGOI THNG
VIT NAM CHI NHNH CN TH ...................................................................14
3.1. Qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin..............................................................14
3.2. Tnh hnh nhn s v c cu t chc ...........................................................15
3.2.1. Tnh hnh nhn s ....................................................................................15
3.2.2. S c cu v t chc VCB Cn Th ..................................................15
3.2.3. Chc nng hot ng ca cc phng ban v phng giao dch ................17
3.3. Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ca VCB Cn Th.....................................20
3.3.1. V cng tc huy ng vn .......................................................................20
3.3.2. V cng tc s dng vn .........................................................................20
3.3.3. Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ca VCB Cn Th ..................................21
3.4. Nhng thun li v kh khn ca VCB Cn Th ......................................22
3.4.1. Thun li..................................................................................................22
3.4.2. Kh khn .................................................................................................22
CHNG 4: PHN TCH RI RO LI SUT TI NGN HNG TMCP
VIT NAM CHI NHNH CN TH ...................................................................23
4.1. Phn tch tnh hnh ri ro li sut ti Ngn hng .......................................23
4.1.1. Phn tch c cu ngun vn ca Ngn hng............................................23
4.1.2. Phn tch s bin ng ca ngun vn nhy cm vi li sut.................28
4.1.3. Khi qut c cu ti sn ca Ngn hng..................................................32
4.1.4. Phn tch s bin ng ca ti sn nhy cm vi li sut .......................33
4.1.5. Phn tch thc trng ri ro li sut ca ngn hng TMCP Vit Nam chi
nhnh Cn Th theo m hnh nh gi li .................................................................35
4.2. D bo mc thay i ca li sut .................................................................47
CHNG 5: MT S GIN PHP V QUN TR RI RO LI SUT TI
VCB CN TH .......................................................................................................54
5.1. Nhn xt v nhng mt lm c v nhng mt tn ti trong cng tc
qun l ri ro li sut ..............................................................................................54
5.2. Nhng gii php gp phn naamg cao hiu qu ca vic qun tr ri ro
li sut ti Ngn hng
..............................................................................................55
5.3. Mt s bin php ch yu nhm hn ch ri ro li sut ti Ngn hng ...57
CHNG 6: KT LUN V KIN NGH .........................................................60
6.1. Kt lun
...........................................................................................................60
6.2. Kin ngh .........................................................................................................61
6.2.1. i vi VCB Cn Th.............................................................................61
DANH MC HNH
Trang
Hnh 1: S t chc ca Vietcombank Cn Th ....................................................16
Hnh 2: Tnh hnh huy ng vn ca Ngn hng ......................................................27
Hnh 3: Bin ng ca cc khon mc thuc ngun vn nhy cm li sut .............28
Hnh 4: Chnh lch GAP ca Ngn hng qua 3 nm ................................................38
CHNG 1
GII THIU
1.1. VN NGHIN CU
1.1.1. S cn thit nghin cu
Nn kinh t th trng vi xu hng ton cu ha v quc t ha cc lung ti
chnh lm thay i cn bn h thng ngn hng, hot ng kinh doanh ngy cng
tr nn phc tp. Thc t i hi h thng cc Ngn hng thng mi (NHTM)
phi c ci tin mnh m nng cao nng lc qun tr ri ro. Ri ro l mt iu
kin rt ph bin v gn nh mang tnh tt yu i vi mi hin tng c trong t
nhin ln trong i sng kinh t - x hi ca con ngi. V vy, chp nhn i u
vi ri ro l mt iu kin bnh thng, khng trnh khi, nhng vn t ra y
khng phi c hay khng c ri ro, m ch phi phng nga gim thiu ri ro
mc chp nhn c.
Thc tin hot ng kinh doanh ca cc Ngn hng thng mi cho thy ri ro
i vi NHTM trong iu kin kinh t th trng gm nhiu loi nh: ri ro tn
dng, ri ro thanh khon, ri ro t gi,v mt trong nhng loi hnh ri ro ln nht
m ngn hng phi thng xuyn i mt l ri ro li sut. Thc vy, Vit Nam,
cuc ua li sut gia cc ngn hng ang ngy tr nn nng bng th ri ro li sut
l kh trnh khi cho cc ngn hng hin nay. l mt lot cc phn ng dy
chuyn, khi li sut tng khin li sut huy ng tng, ngi i vay cng phi chu
chi ph cao hn, ri ro tht bi ca d n u t cng tng theo v nu qu ngng
s dn n nguy c v n. Cho n lc ny, c th xem nh li sut ca Vit Nam
c t do ha hon ton. Theo nh gi ca nhiu chuyn gia, vn chy ua
li sut trong cc nm qua gia cc ngn hng thng mi nhiu lc khng tun theo
mt qui lut no c. Vic chy ua li sut gia cc NHTM to ra khng t ri
ro cho doanh nghip. Do , vn qun l ri ro li sut trong hot ng ngn
hng c vai tr rt quan trng v thm ch n cn quyt nh n hiu qu hot ng
kinh doanh ca NHTM.
Cng s pht trin ca nn kinh t nc nh, nn kinh t Cn Th trong thi
gian qua c nhng thay i tch cc. Trn tinh thn , Ngn hng Ngoi thng
khon tin gi cng nh vi nhng khon vn vay trn th trng, kim sot v bo
v thu nhp t li, chi ph tr li v t l thu nhp li cn bin gi tr ti sn v gi tr
rng ca ti sn.
Nh vy, vi nhng cn c khoa hc, thc tin v nhng cn c t m hnh
trn, chuyn tp trung nghin cu mt kha cnh trong cng tc qun tr ri ro li
sut ti ngn hng TMCP Ngoi thng Vit Nam chi nhnh Cn Th.
1.2. MC TIU NGHIN CU
1.2.1 Mc tiu chung
ti phn tch tnh hnh bin ng ca ti sn v ngun vn i vi s thay
i ca li sut trn th trng nhm nhn bit nhng ri ro v li sut m Ngn
hng phi i mt, t a ra mt s gii php v qun tr ri ro li sut ti Ngn
hng TMCP Ngoi Thng Vit Nam chi nhnh Cn Th.
1.2.2. Mc tiu c th
ti s phn tch tnh hnh bin ng ca ti sn v ngun vn nhy cm vi
li sut qua 3 nm 2006 - 2008.
o lng ri ro li sut bng m hnh nh gi li v mc tc ng ca s thay
i li sut n thu nhp ca ngn hng.
D bo mc li sut trong tng lai, t nh gi tnh hnh li nhun ca
ngn hng.
ra bin php hn ch ri ro li sut v mt s kin ngh nhm qun tr ri ro
li sut i vi ngn hng.
1.3. PHM VI NGHIN CU
1.3.1. Khng gian
Ngn hng TMCP Vit Nam chi nhnh Cn Th c rt nhiu phng ban v b
phn. Vic thc hin nghin cu cng nh thu thp s liu, thng tin cho ti ch
yu c thc hin ti phng Ngun vn ca Ngn hng.
1.3.2. Thi gian
S liu phn tch ca ti c cung cp qua cc nm 2006 2008. Thi gian
thc hin ti lun vn bt u t ngy 02/02/2009 n ngy 27/04/2009.
CHNG 2
ngn hng. Ngc li, khi li sut th trng gim th ngn hng li c thm li
nhun do gia tng chnh lch li sut u ra u vo.
+ Kh nng th hai l khi lng ca cc khon mc ngun vn vi li sut
c nh ln hn khi lng ca cc khon mc ti sn vi li sut c nh. Trong
trng hp ny, ngn hng li c li khi li sut th trng tng v chu ri ro khi li
sut th trng gim.
Nh vy, trong c hai trng hp, khi c bin ng li sut th trng th s
c thay i chnh lch li sut. Phn chnh lch khi lng ca cc khon mc ti
sn v ngun vn vi li sut c nh c quy m cng ln th nh hng n kt qu
kinh doanh cng nhiu.
- Ri ro thay i li sut bin i:
Ri ro thay i li sut bin i xy ra khi li sut ca cc khon mc trong
ti sn (s dng vn) v li sut ca cc khon mc trong ngun vn khng th thay
i ng thi v thi im v ng nht v mc thay i ca li sut th trng. Ni
cch khc, khi li sut th trng thay i th u c s co gin v li sut ca cc
khon mc bn ti sn cng nh bn ngun vn, nhng s co gin ny li khng
ng thi trong cng khong thi gian v khng cng c mc co gin vi li sut
th trng. iu , mt mt c th em li cho ngn hng mt c hi chnh lch li
sut u ra u vo ln hn, nhng mt khc cng c th em li cho ngn hng
ri ro gim thu cho chnh lch li sut u ra u vo b thu hp li.
V mt l thuyt, s tht s l tng nu ngn hng lun cn bng c khi
lng cc khon mc ngun vn v s dng vn vi li sut c nh (v ng thi
cng cn bng c cc khon mc c li sut bin i). Nh th, ngn hng s lun
m bo n nh chnh lch li sut u vo - u ra v khng b ri ro li sut.
Nhng trong thc t, cng tng t nh v k hn ca ti sn v ngun vn, thng
rt kh c c s tng xng ng nht. V vy, cc ngn hng thng mi cn
nhn bit c ri ro ny v c nhng bin php qun l ri ro li sut ph hp
trnh nh hng xu n kt qu kinh doanh do b gim thu, thm ch thua l t cc
nghip v ngn hng ph thuc vo li sut.
S thay i li sut
>0
Tng
Tng
>0
Gim
Gim
<0
Tng
Gim
<0
Gim
Tng
y = y 1 y 0
y 0 : ch tiu nm trc.
y 1 : ch tiu nm sau.
y =
*100 100%
y0
Trong :
y 0 : ch tiu nm trc.
y 1 : ch tiu nm sau.
y : biu hin tc tng trng ca cc ch tiu kinh t.
Phng php ny nhn bit tnh hnh bin ng ca mc ca cc ch tiu
kinh t trong thi gian no . So snh tc tng trng ca ch tiu gia cc nm
v so snh tc tng trng gia cc ch tiu. T tm ra nguyn nhn v bin
php khc phc.
+ Phng php d bo:
Cn c vo bng li sut u vo u ra ca Ngn hng Ngoi thng Cn
Th nm 2008, chng ta s dng phng php bnh phng b nht vi lch
chun tng i chnh xc hn so vi nhng phng php d bo khc, v chng ta
c th d bo c li sut trong nm 2009.
Theo phng php ny, chng ta c phng trnh hi quy:
Yd = aX + b
Trong :
Yd: l mc li sut d tr tng lai hng thng.
X: l tr s ta cho.
n: l s thng.
a, b: l cc tham s c tnh theo cng thc sau:
aXY=
n
nX
XY
2
( X
)2
n 2
;b = X
Y
X XY
100 n X ( X
2
)2 )
CHNG 3
GIM C
Chi
B
PG
PG
PG
Cng
on
Phng
QLN
Thi
ua
Phng
Vn
Phng
TTQT
PGD
HG
PGD
NK
Phng
Khch
hng
B
phn
XDCB
on
Thanh
Nin
H tr
Pht
trin
Mng
li
PG
Phng
KDDV
Phng
KT
Phng
KTNB
PGD
AH
Phng
VT
T
Chc
PGD
CR
PGD
VL
Phng
HC
Phng
NQ
So snh 07/06
So snh 08/07
Ch Tiu
2006
2007
2008
Tng ngun vn
2.445
2.230
1.935
-215
-8,79
-295
-13,22
790
918
1.161
128
16,20
243
26,47
Vn huy ng
S tin
S tin
Ch Tiu
2006
2007
2008
So snh 07/06
So snh 08/07
S tin
S tin
15.261
10.787 10.233
-4.474 -29,32
-554
-5,13
Doanh s thu n
15.119
10.339 10.439
-4.780 -31,62
100
0,97
-170
-8,27
Tng d n
2.282
2.055
1.885
-227
14
225
11
N xu
-9,95
211
Ch Tiu
2006
2007
2008
So snh 07/06
S tin
So snh 08/07
S tin
Thu nhp
273
202
357
-71 -26,00
155
Chi ph
241
147
338
-94 -39,00
191 129,93
32
55
19
Li nhun
23
71,88
76,73
-36 -65,45
T nm 2006 n nm 2007 thu nhp ca Ngn hng gim, chi ph cng gim
tng ng, thu nhp thp nhng chi ph cng thp nn lm cho li nhun tng
ng k t 32 t ng ln 55 t ng. iu ny cho thy Ngn hng hot ng
c hiu qu lm cho chi ph gim nhiu v y li nhun ln cao. Tuy nhin, trong
nm 2008 do s bin ng ca th trng v yu t lm pht cng vi cn st li
sut lm cho chi ph ca Ngn hng tng rt cao ln n 338 t ng lm cho li
nhun gim ng k.
3.4. NHNG THUN LI V KH KHN CA VCB CN TH
3.4.1. Thun li
Hin ti h thng php lut v ngn hng kh hon chnh to hnh lang
php l khai thc c th mnh ca mnh. Ngoi ra, bn thn VCB Cn Th c
h thng thanh ton tt li c v tr t ti trung tm thnh ph to s thun tin cho
khch hng n giao dch. Ngn hng to c uy tn v n tng tt i vi
khch hng. n nay, ngn hng c mt lc lng khch hng truyn thng rt
ln vi hot ng kinh doanh hiu qu gp phn nng cao hot ng ca ngn hng.
Bn cnh , ni b c quan on kt, i ng cn b tr c trnh chuyn mn
cao, nhit tnh vi cng vic, lun hon thnh tt nhim v v phn cng vic m
trch di s ch o ca Ban lnh o mang li cho Ngn hng khng t thnh qu
tt p.
3.4.2. Kh khn
Do s cnh tranh gay gt ca cc ngn hng trong v ngoi nc. V hin ti
trn a bn c nhiu ngn hng hot ng vi sn phm v dch v a dng c th
a VCB Cn Th n nguy c mt dn th phn.
S c mt ca cc cng ty bo him, tit kim bu in gy kh khn
trong vic huy ng vn ca ngn hng.
Cc doanh nghip hot ng trn a bn a s c quy m va v nh m lnh
vc hot ng ch yu l lng thc, thc phm, thy hi sn ph thuc vo iu
kin thi tit c th gy ra ri ro tnh dng cho ngn hng.
Tuy vy, trong thi gian qua VCB Cn Th gt hi c nhng thnh qu
m khng phi ngn hng no cng lm c.
CHNG 4
S
tin
Vn huy
ng
Vn vay
NH hi s
Vn khc
Tng ngun
vn
2007
%
S
tin
2008
%
S
tin
S
tin
S
tin
790
32,31
918
41,17
1.161
60,00
128
16,20
243
26,47
1.486
60,78
1.171
52,51
743
38,40
-315
-21,20
-428
-36,55
169
6,91
141
6,32
31
1,60
-28
-16,57
-110
-78,01
2.445
100
2.230
100
1.935
100
-215
-8,79
-295
-13,22
- Vn huy ng:
Vn huy ng ca Ngn hng chim t trng cao th 2 sau Vn vay ngn
hng Hi s trong nhiu nm lin. T nm 2006 n nm 2008, ngun vn huy ng
ca Ngn hng tng u, nm 2007 tng 128 t ng (16,20%) so vi nm 2006. Do
tc tng trng kinh t d c duy tr mc cao trong nhiu nm qua nhng
thu nhp quc dn bnh qun u ngi vn cn thp, tit kim v tch ly trong dn
c tuy tng nhng vn cn mc khim tn v dn c vn cha thc s tin
tng khi gi tin tit kim v s dng cc dch v ca ngn hng nn trong giai
on ny vn huy ng ca Ngn hng tng nhng cha cao.
Nhng c bit vo nm 2008, vn huy ng t 1.161 t ng, chim t
trng n 60% trong tng ngun vn v tng 243 t ng (26,47%) so vi nm
2007. S d vn huy ng ca VCB Cn Th li tng cao nh vy l v trong nm
qua lm pht tng cao lm cho li sut ca th trng thay i lin tc, nhng nh
vo s thch ng kp thi ca Ngn hng v kh nng ca ban qun tr nn Ngn
hng thu ht c nhiu ngun vn t cc dch v huy ng vn khc nhau.
-Vn vay ngn hng Hi S:
Nhu cu vn phc v tn dng l rt ln, bn cnh vic huy ng vn di
dng tin gi, VCB Cn Th cn phi vay thm vn t ngn hng Trung ng th
mi p ng c nhu cu vn. Trong c cu ngun vn ca ngn hng, vay ngn
hng Trung ng l ni cui cng p ng nhu cu vn cho cc ngn hng, y l
ni cung cp ngun vn rt quan trng cho cc ngn hng thng mi.
Do s cnh tranh gay gt ca cc ngn hng khc trn a bn nn a phn
ngun vn hot ng ca chi nhnh u phi iu chuyn t ngn hng Hi s. Vn
vay ngn hng Trung ng chim t l ln trong hai nm 2006 v 2007. V khi vay
vn ngn hng Trung ng cc NHTM thng phi chu chi ph ln v ngn hng
Trung ng cho vay theo li sut chit khu, cc t chc tn dng khc cho vay theo
li sut th trng. V vy, hiu qu kinh t mang li t vic s dng ngun vn ny
i vi cc NHTM c phn st gim. Ngn hng khng nn qu ph thuc vo vn
vay ngn hng Trung ng m nn tng cng vn huy ng ti ch gim chi ph
u vo.
Ch Tiu
1. Tin gi ca cc
t chc kinh t
- Khng k hn
- C k hn < 12
thng
- C k hn > 12
thng
2. Tin gi tit kim
- Khng k hn
- C k hn < 12
thng
- C k hn > 12
thng
3. K phiu, tri
phiu
4. Tin gi k qu
bo m thanh ton
5. Tin gi ca cc
t chc TD khc
Tng
2008
So snh 07/06
So snh 08/07
2006
2007
373
432
584
59
15,82
152
35,12
361
418
499
57
15,78
81
19,38
10
80
5 100,00
70 700,00
-3 -42,85
-1 -25,00
327
440
513
14
208
315
391
107
51,44
76
24,13
105
117
115
12
14,43
-2
-1,71
44
22
15
22
50,00
-7 -31,82
10
31
-6 -60,00
27 675,00
36
20
18
-16
-44,44
790
918
1.161
128
16,20
S tin
113
34,56
-6 -42,86
S tin
73
16,59
-1 -12,50
-2 -10,00
243
26,47
700
Tin gi ca cc
600
500
400
kim
300
200
Tin gi k qu bo
m thanh ton
Tin gi ca cc TCTD
khc
100
0
2006
2007
2008
mnh ca Ngn hng, n gp phn vo vic d tr, b sung ngun vn kp thi cho
Ngn hng. ng thi, n cng nh gi c s n lc ca cc cp lnh o trong
cng tc m rng nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn ti VCB Cn Th.
4.1.2. Phn tch s bin ng ca ngun vn nhy cm vi li sut
Ngun vn nhy cm vi li sut l cc khon n m trong chi ph li sut
s thay i trong thi gian nht nh khi li sut thay i. V qun l ngun vn i
hi cn nhc cc ri ro ph cng nh chnh lch gia chi ph vay vn (ch yu l li
sut vay ca cc ngn hng khc) v mc li nhun c th thu c khi u t
vo tn dng v chng khon. Mc tiu chnh ca phng thc qun l ny l bo
m thanh khon cho ngn hng, m bo vn cho nhu cu tn dng hp l v
duy tr li sut c bn rng v doanh li.
Cng tc huy ng vn c coi l mt trong nhng mc tiu quan trng c
bit trong hot ng tn dng. Do , trong nhng nm qua Ngn hng c nhiu
bin php tch cc trong huy ng vn thu ht vn nhn ri trong dn c bng
nhiu hnh thc khc nhau. T m Ngn hng tp trung v thu ht c ngun
vn kh ln p ng cho nhu cu tn dng ngy cng cao.
Trong c cu ngun vn ca ngn hng th cc khon ngun vn nhy cm
vi li sut ch yu l cc khon tin gi ngn hn, giy t c gi ngn hn v tin
gi tit kim c nhn, vn vay ngn hng Hi s.
1600
1400
1200
Tin gi c a cc t chc TD
1000
800
Tin gi c a cc t chc KT
600
Giy t c gi
400
Vn vay Ngn hng hi s
200
0
2006
2007
2008
Ch Tiu
1. Tin gi tit
kim c nhn
- Khng k hn
- C k hn < 12
thng
2. Tin gi cc
TCTD
- Khng k hn
3. Tin gi ca
cc t chc KT
- Khng k hn
- C k hn < 12
thng
4. Giy c gi
5. Vn vay NH
Hi s
Tng
2006
2007
2008
222
323
398
14
208
315
391
36
20
36
So snh 07/06
S tin
101
So snh 08/07
S tin
45,50
75
23,22
-6 -42,86
-1
-12,50
51,44
76
24,13
18
-16 -44,44
-2
-10,00
20
18
-16 -44,44
-2
-10,00
366
428
579
62
16,94
151
35,28
361
418
499
57
15,78
81
19,38
10
80
70
700,00
44
22
15
22
50,00
-7
-31,82
1.486
1.171
743
-315 -21,20
-428
-36,55
2.154
1.964
1.753
-190
-211
-10,74
107
100,0
0
-8,82
Ch Tiu
1. Tin gi ti
2006
2007
2008
So snh 07/06
So snh 08/07
S tin
S tin
34,3
10,3
22
-24
-67,97
11,7
113,59
12,5
30,2
33,5
17,7
141,6
3,3
10,93
0,1
0,1
0,1
5. Cho vay
2.282
2.055
1.885
-227
-9,95
-170
-8,27
- Ngn hn
2.027
1.706
1.602
-321
-15,84
-104
-6,96
255
349
242,9
94
36,86
-106,1
-30,40
10,6
19,4
27,2
8,8
83,02
7,8
40,21
2.339,5
2.115
1.967,8
-224,5
-9,60
-147,2
-6,96
NHNN
2. Tin mt ti qu
4. Chng khon di
hn
- Trung v di hn
6. TSC v trang
thit b my mc
Tng ti sn
4.1.5. Phn tch thc trng ri ro li sut ca Ngn hng TMCP Ngoi
thng Vit Nam Chi nhnh Cn Th theo m hnh nh gi li.
Ri ro li sut th hin ri ro tim tng ca mt Ngn hng do cc bin
ng ca li sut. Ri ro li sut c th c mt s hnh thc khc nhau, nh ri ro
xc nh li li sut, ri ro ng cong li sut thay i, ri ro tng quan li sut,
v ri ro quyn chn i km. V ri ro li sut l ri ro c bn d mc phi ca cc
ngn hng hin nay, mt lot cc phn ng dy chuyn, khi li sut tng khin li
sut huy ng tng, ngi i vay cng phi chu chi ph cao hn, ri ro tht bi trong
d n u t cng tng theo v nu qu ngng s dn n nguy c v n. Ri ro li
sut xy ra khi c s chnh lch gia k hn bnh qun ca cc ti sn v cc khon
n ca ngn hng dn n kh nng gim thu nhp ca ngn hng so vi d tnh.
Vi c im ca ngun vn huy ng thng l ngn hn trong khi cc khon tn
dng li bao gm c trung v di hn, VCB Cn Th phi thng xuyn i mt vi
ri ro li sut v ri ro thanh khon, c bit l khi li sut th trng li tng mnh
trong nm va qua. Trong nm 2008, li sut c bn c iu chnh lin tc lm
cho cc ngn hng thng mi khn n.
Da v cng thc ca m hnh nh gi li, chng ta c th nh gi s b
v tnh hnh ri ro li sut ca VCB Cn Th qua bng 8.
Ngun vn nhy cm li sut bao gm chng ch tin gi sp o hn hoc
sp c ti gia hn, khi Ngn hng v khch hng phi tha thun mt mc li
sut mi ph hp vi nhng iu kin ca th trng. Nhng khon tin gi li sut
th ni c thu nhp thay i t ng cng vi li sut th trng, v nhng khon
vay mn trn th trng tin t c li sut c diu chnh hng ngy phn nh
nhng bin ng mi nht ca th trng. n y s xut hin mt khon chnh
lch gia ti sn v ngun vn nhy cm li sut.
Theo bng s liu th trong 3 nm Ngn hng u c chnh lch GAP nhy
cm li sut m, c th l nm 2006 chnh lch GAP nhy cm li sut l -130 t
ng, nm 2007 l -234 t ng, nm 2008 l -151 t ng. V th m Ngn hng
trng thi nhy cm ngun vn. Nu li sut tng, t l thu nhp li ca Ngn hng
s gim v thu t li trn ti sn s t hn chi ph tr li cho vn huy ng. Nu cc
yu t khc khng i thu nhp li ca Ngn hng s gim xung. Ngc li, nu li
sut gim khi Ngn hng ang trong tnh trng nhy cm ngun vn th t l thu
nhp li cn bin ca Ngn hng s tng v thu nhp li trn ti sn s gim t hn
chi ph tr li cho ngun vn. Nh vy thu nhp ca Ngn hng s tng.
Bng 8: Phn tch trng thi nhy cm li sut ca Ngn hng
qua 3 nm 2006 2008
n v tnh: t ng
CH TIU
2006
2007
2008
Ti sn nhy cm li sut
2.027
1.706
1.602
- Tn dng ngn hn
2.027
1.706
1.602
2.154
1.964
1.753
222
323
398
14
- C k hn < 12 thng
208
315
391
2. Tin gi cc TCTD
36
20
18
- Khng k hn
44
34
18
3. Tin gi ca cc t chc KT
366
428
579
- Khng k hn
361
418
499
10
80
44
22
15
1.486
1.171
743
-127
-258
-151
0,94
0,86
0,91
- C k hn < 12 thng
4. Giy c gi
5. Vn vay NH Hi s
Chnh lch GAP
T l ti sn trn ngun vn nhy cm
li sut
Trng thi ca Ngn hng
T l thu nhp li cn bin (NIM) s
gim nu:
Nhy cm
Nhy cm
Nhy cm
ngun vn
ngun vn
ngun vn
Li sut tng
KHON MC
Trng thi nhy cm li sut
2006
2007
2008
Nhy cm
Nhy cm
Nhy cm
ngun vn
ngun vn
ngun vn
-127
-258
-151
IS GAP tng i
-0,06
-0,15
-0,09
0,94
0,86
0,91
H s ri ro li sut (ISR)
Qua bng trn, chng ta thy rng 3 nm qua, Ngn hng trng thi nhy cm
ngun vn. Gi tr ca chnh lch nhy cm li sut c s bin ng khc nhau qua
qua cc nm, l do tnh hnh v ti sn nhy cm v ngun vn nhy cm li sut
trong tng nm khc nhau.
Nm 2007, t l khe h nhy cm tng i gim xung -0,15 l do Ngn hng
tng cng cng tc huy ng vn lm cho khon mc ngun vn nhy cm li sut
ln hn so vi ti sn nhy cm li sut. Nm 2008, t l khe h nhy cm tng i
ca Ngn hng tng ln -0,09 l do Ngn hng tng cng cng tc cho vay sn
xut kinh doanh v cho vay p ng nhu cu vn ngn hn ca cc t chc kinh t
2007
2008
-127
-258
-151
2007
2008
S tin
Li sut
Chi v
S tin
Li sut
Chi v
S tin
Li sut
Chi v
(t ng)
(%/nm)
li sut
(t ng)
(%/nm)
li sut
(t ng)
(%/nm)
li sut
14,364
323
3,464
398
222
50,845
14
2,76
0,386
3,00
0,240
3,00
0,210
- C k hn < 12 thng
208
6,72
13,978
315
7,42
3,224
391
12,95
50,635
2. Tin gi cc TCTD
36
0,432
20
0,240
18
- Khng k hn
36
0,432
20
0,240
18
10,300
428
11,544
579
- Khng k hn
1,20
1,20
0,216
1,2
0,216
3. Tin gi ca cc t chc KT
366
- Khng k hn
361
2,76
9,964
418
2,60
10,868
499
2,48
12,375
6,72
0,336
10
6,76
0,676
80
12,23
9,784
44
8,40
3,696
22
10,2
2,244
15
15,45
2,318
1.486
9,00
133,740
1.171
7,08
82,907
743
13,44
99,859
162,532
1.964
100,399
1.753
- C k hn < 12 thng
4. Giy c gi
5. Vn vay NH Hi s
Tng khon mc nhy cm li
sut
Tng khon mc c li sut c
nh
Tng chi ph li
2.154
22,159
175,397
78,468
46,601
162,603
241
147
338
2007
2008
S tin
Li sut
Thu t
S tin
Li sut
Thu t
S tin
Li sut
Thu t
(t ng)
(%/nm)
li sut
(t ng)
(%/nm)
li sut
(t ng)
(%/nm)
li sut
1. Tin gi ti NHNN
34,3
10,3
22
2. Tin mt ti qu
12,5
30,2
33,5
0,1
0,1
0,1
4. Chng khon di hn
5. Cho vay
2.282
- Ngn hn
2.027
255
- Trung v di hn
6. TSC v trang thit b my
mc
Tng khon mc nhy cm li
sut
Tng khon mc c li sut c
nh
Tng thu t li
180,852
2.055
16,60
136,482
1.706
17,40
44,370
349
10,6
2.027
224,919
1.885
10,68
182,201
1.602
15,60
249,912
12,24
42,718
242,9
17,76
43,139
19,4
136,482
1.706
293,051
27,2
182,201
1.602
249,912
136,518
19,799
107,088
273
202
357
S tin
(t ng)
2007
S tin
(t ng)
2008
S tin
(t ng)
2.027
16,60
1.706
10,68
1.602
15,60
255
17,04
349
12,24
242,9
17,76
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
2.154
5,37
1.964
5,46
1.753
8,68
122
8,64
125
8,76
151
11,94
253,72
106,73
(Ngun: phng Vn VCB Cn Th)
122,86
S tin
(t ng)
2007
S tin
2008
(t ng)
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
2.027
17,60
1.706
11,68
1.602
16,60
255
18,04
349
13,24
242,9
18,76
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
2.154
6,37
1.964
6,46
1.753
9,68
122
9,64
125
9,76
151
12,94
253,78
106,39
(Ngun: phng Vn VCB Cn Th)
122,27
Bng 14: Phn tch Ti sn Ngun vn phn nhm theo khon mc nhy cm li sut khi
li sut ti sn tng 0,5% v li sut ngun vn tng 1,5%
2006
TI SN
S tin
(t ng)
2007
S tin
2008
(t ng)
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
2.027
17,1
1.706
11,18
1.602
16,1
255
17,54
349
12,74
242,9
18,26
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
S tin
(t ng)
Li sut huy
ng trung bnh
(%/nm)
2.154
6,87
1.964
6,96
1.753
10,18
122
10,14
125
10,26
151
13,44
230,99
85,67
(Ngun: phng Vn VCB Cn Th)
103,52
CH TIU
2006
2007
2008
253,72
106,73
122,70
253,78
106,39
122,27
230,99
85,67
103,52
(ABBank) l nh bng u tin "n pho" cho t tng li sut huy ng VND trong
nm 2008. u thng 1, ngn hng ny iu chnh mc tng cao nht 0,48% mi
nm vi li hng qu cho tt c k hn. Vi k hn 24 thng, li sut 9,12%, cng
thm li sut cui k khi gi 2 t ng tr ln, ngi gi tin c th hng ti a
10,34% mi nm. n cui thng 1,ABBank li tip tc y li sut ln thm 0,30,78% mi nm. Ngn hng Si Gn - H Ni (SHB) cng thng bo nng li sut
huy ng tin ng ln 0,78% cho k hn 6 thng cho min bc v min nam,
0,795% cho khu vc ng bng sng Cu Long, Dong A Bank cng thng bo tng
li sut tin gi tit kim VND dnh cho khch hng c nhn vi mc tng bnh
qun 0,06% mi thng. y l ln th hai k t u nm 2008 Dong A Bank tng li
sut tit kim VND, hai ln ch cch nhau 35 ngy. Ngy trong ngy 15/2,
Eximbank cng nhp cuc ua tng li sut gi VND vi mc iu chnh 0,07%
mi thng, tt c k hn. Gp mt trong danh sch ua tng li sut ny cn c
Techcombank vi mc tng 0,2-0,35% mi nm, trong mnh nht k hn 12
thng ln 9,6%. Biu li sut mi ca Ngn hng Phng ng (OCBank) cng
c iu chnh tng thp nht 0,01% mi thng.
l s bin ng kh lng ca li sut ko di gn kn c nm. T di
10%/nm, li sut huy ng VND vt ln trn 19%/nm. V nh im, li sut
cho vay ti a b cht li li sut trn l 21%/nm. Li sut huy ng ph bin ca
cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc l t 17,5%/nm n 17,8%/nm, li sut huy
ng ph bin ca cc ngn hng thng mi c phn l t 17,5%/nm n
18,5%/nm. Mc thp nht trong nm 2008 v gim 8,25%/nm so vi thi im
cao nht cui thng 6-2008 (21%/nm).
Cnh tranh cng l yu t gn lin vi kinh doanh, hc thuyt t bn xem
cnh tranh l yu t rt quan trng nh hng n kt qu hot ng ca bt c lnh
vc no. Cnh tranh s to tnh t ch cao, linh hot trong kinh doanh. Ngn hng
cng khng khc g cc doanh nghip hot ng vi hnh thc i vay v cho vay th
yu t cnh tranh li cng quan trng hn cc nh qun l c chin lc ph hp
em li hiu qu hot ng cao cho ngn hng ca mnh. Cc ngn hng chy ua
li sut vi nhau c c ngun vn phc v cho doanh nghip v c nhn, tng
Li sut huy ng
(%/nm)
(%/nm)
1/2009
7,79
12,72
2/2009
8,15
13,00
3/2009
8,33
13,28
4/2009
8,51
13,56
5/2009
8,69
13,84
6/2009
8,87
14,12
7/2009
9,05
14,40
8/2009
9,23
14,68
- Tc ng ca mc gi:
Trong x hi th ai cng mun nm gi mt lng tin nht nh p ng
nhu cu v vt cht cho mnh. Khi gi c tng, dn chng mun nm gi mt lng
tin ln hn c th mua ng vi s hng ha v dch v cung ng nh trc.
Nh vy, khi mc gi tng ln s lm cho lng cu tin t tng ln t ko theo
s bin ng ca li sut th trng. i vi hot ng ca ngn hng, vic cnh
tranh v gi l mt nguyn nhn quan trng quyt nh s thay i li sut huy ng
v li sut cho vay. S gia tng li sut ny tc ng ti quyt nh tiu dng ca
khu vc h gia nh theo hng gim tiu dng hin ti v tng tit kim cho
tiu dng trong tng lai. i vi khu vc doanh nghip, s gia tng li sut lm
tng chi ph vn vay ngn hng. iu ny i hi d n u t s dng vn vay
ngn hng phi c t l li nhun ln hn v kt qu l s d n u t c th thc
hin vi mc li sut cao hn ny c th gim hay ni cch khc, u t c nh c
th gim. Ngoi ra, li sut cao cng lm tng chi ph lu gi vn lu ng (v d
nh hng trong kho) v do vy, to sc p cc doanh nghip phi gim u t di
dng vn lu ng.
Trong dch v ngn hng bn l v dch v thanh ton, duy tr gi thp khng
phi l mt chin lc mang li li th cnh tranh lu di v: khng phi lc no
khch hng cng nhy cm vi gi. Sn phm ngn hng nh tin gi, cho vay, mc
li sut bao gm c ri ro. Cc ngn hng c tn nhim thp lun duy tr mc li
sut tin gi cao hn cc ngn hng c tn nhim cao. Ngoi ra, cc i th cnh
tranh hon ton c th iu chnh gi ca mnh. i vi ngn hng c c cu chi ph
cao, hoc trong mi trng cnh tranh gay gt th ngn hng kh c th duy tr chnh
sch gi thp trong thi gian di. Tuy nhin cc ngn hng mun thm nhp th
trng c th dng chnh sch gi thp. Nhng b li, h cn phi t c mt
doanh s ng k, hoc bn c cc dch v khc km theo. Sc p v cnh tranh
v s bin ng lin tc v li sut trn th trng khin cho ngn hng phi thng
xuyn xem xt v iu chnh mc gi ca mnh.
CHNG 5
- Hon i khon mc u t:
Vi vic hon i mt s khon mc u t (s dng vn), ngn hng c th
lm gim co gin ca li sut ti sn vi mc ch to ra s cn bng hoc gim
s chnh lch vi co gin ca li sut ngun vn. Nh, ngn hng c th chuyn
i mt s danh mc u t c li sut bin i thnh cc khon u t c li sut c
nh. iu ny s lm co gin li sut ca ton b ti sn gim xung, bt chnh
lch vi co gin ca ton b ngun vn. co gin ca li sut nh chuyn i
cng nh khi lng ca khon mc ti sn ny s quyt nh co gin li sut
chung ca ton b ti sn gim c bao nhiu, c t c mc tiu gim ri ro
hay khng.
- Ngn hng ch ng thc hin nhng cn i ph hp v mt thi gian
v gia ti sn v ngun vn:
Ngn hng c th ch ng tm kim nhng d n c s trng hp gia thi
gian ca ti sn v ngun vn. S tng ng gia k hn huy ng vn v cho vay
mt mt p ng c nhu cu a dng ca khch hng, mt khc gip cho Ngn
hng c th hn ch c ri ro li sut. Vi vic a dng ha cc k hn ny, Ngn
hng s tin hnh phn nhm ti sn v ngun vn theo mt hoc nhng khung k
hn khc nhau, t thy c thc trng c cu ti sn v ngun vn ti mi thi
im m Ngn hng cn nh gi li trong qun tr ri ro li sut ca Ngn hng, khi
cng tc qun tr ri ro s chnh xc hn v hiu qu hn, xc vi thc t hn.
- Tng quy m cn s (tng tng ngun vn, tng tng ti sn):
Nu nh cc bin php chuyn i khon mc ti sn hay ngun vn khng
em li kt qu iu tit ri ro li sut nh mong mun hoc mi ch t mt phn
yu cu th ngn hng phi s dng bin php tng quy m cn s. Vi mc ch
ng thi tng co gin li sut mt bn bng cn i v gim co gin li sut
ca bn kia. Khi co gin li sut ca ti sn kh cao so vi ngun vn th ngn
hng c th huy ng vn vay ngn hn trn th trng lin ngn hng (vi li sut
bin i) em u t li cho cc sn phm c li sut c nh. Tuy nhin, s dng
bin php ny cn ht sc cn trng v c nhng hn ch nht nh. Quy m tng
ngun vn v tng ti sn tng ln c th lm thay i c cu v hng lot ch s
CHNG 6:
PH LC
Ph lc 1: D bo s bin ng ca li sut huy ng ti VCB Cn th
theo phng php bnh phng b nht
THNG
Y (%/nm)
XY
1/2008
7,04
7,04
2/2008
8,48
16,96
3/2008
10,04
30,12
4/2008
9,36
16
37,44
5/2008
11,80
25
59,00
6/2008
13,73
36
82,38
7/2008
15,00
49
105,00
8/2008
15,28
64
122,24
9/2008
14,26
81
128,34
10/2008
12,22
10
100
122,20
11/2008
8,65
11
121
95,15
12/2008
6,93
12
144
83,16
132,79
78
650
889,03
Tng
Yd (%/nm)
1/2009
13
7,79
2/2009
14
8,15
3/2009
15
8,33
4/2009
16
8,51
5/2009
17
8,69
6/2009
18
8,87
7/2009
19
9,05
8/2009
20
9,23
Y (%/nm)
XY
1/2008
18,0
18,0
2/2008
18,0
36,0
3/2008
19,0
57,0
4/2008
16,8
16
67,2
5/2008
16,8
25
84,0
6/2008
20,0
36
120,0
7/2008
20,0
49
140,0
8/2008
19,8
64
158,4
9/2008
20,5
81
184,5
10/2008
18,5
10
100
185,0
11/2008
14,4
11
121
158,4
12/2008
11,4
12
144
136,8
Tng
213,2
78
650
1.345,3
Yd (%/nm)
1/2009
13
12,72
2/2009
14
13,00
3/2009
15
13,28
4/2009
16
13,56
5/2009
17
13,84
6/2009
18
14,12
7/2009
19
14,40
8/2009
20
14,68