(Final Report)

( 1)

2555




( 1)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

1 .. 2560
2579

3
1.

(Feedback)



2. (Delay)



3. (Inertia of System)
(Status Quo)

 (Scenario
Building)


2 3
4
1
( 1) 2
1.
2.
( 1)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)





20



20

. ............................................................................................................................................. i
................................................................................................................................... iv
...................................................................................................................................... vi
..................................................................................................................... x
Executive Summary.. ....................................................................................................... xxxi
1 ................................................................................................................................ 1-1
1.1 ........................................................................................................ . 1-1
1.2 ....................................................................................................................... 1-2
1.3 ........................................................................................................................... 1-2
1.4 ........................................................................................................... 1-3
1.5 ................................................................................................................. 1-3
1.6 ............................................ 1-5
1.7 ................................................................................................................. 1-24
1.8 .......................................................... 1-25
2 ........................................ 2-1
2.1 ................................. 2-1
2.2 .................... 2-34
2.3 ............................................................................................................................ 2-71
3 20 ...... 3-1
3.1 .................................. 3-1
3.2 ..................... 3-38
3.3 ............................................................................................................................. 3-62

 4
20 ............................................................................................ 4-1
4.1
.................................................................................................................... 4-1
4.2
.................................................................................................................. 4-35
5
20 ........................................................................................................ 5-1
5.1 (Scenario Method) ..................................... 5-1
5.2
(Environmental Scenarios) .............................................................................................. 5-35
6 20 ..... 6-1
6.1
20 ............................................... 6-1
6.2 20 ...................... 6-8
6.2.1 (From Gave to Green) ........................................................ 6-8
6.2.2 (Molted Crab) .................................................................... 6-13
6.2.3 (Dolphins Riding the Waves) .......................................... 6-16
6.3 ..... 6-31
7
20 .................................................................. 7-1
7.1 20 ..................... 7-1
7.2 ............................... 7-8
7.3 ................................................................ 7-58
................................................................................................................................... -1
.............................................................................................................................. -1

ii


1 1 ....................................................................... 1-1
2 2 ....................................................................... 2-1
3 1 ..................................................................... 3-1
4 2 ..................................................................... 4-1
5 3 ..................................................................... 5-1
6 4 ..................................................................... 6-1
7 1 2 ............................................................ 7-1
8 3 ...................................................................... 8-1
9 .............................. 9-1

iii


1-1:
1-2:
1-3:
2-1:
3-1:
3-2:
3-3:
3-4:

3-5:

4-1:
4-2:
4-3:
4-4:
4-5:
4-6:
4-7:
4-8:

..........................................................................................................
....................................................................................
.....................................................................................
21
.........................................
....................

........................
.................................................................

20
2.......................................................................................

20
2........................................................... ................
.. 2050..........

..........
...............

..........................................................................


11 (..2555-2559)..................

.. 2540-2559..................................................................................

.. 2555-2559........................................................................................................
.....
iv

1-23
1-24
1-26
2-23
3-13
3-19
3-53

3-55
3-59

4-2
4-8
4-19
4-32
4-38
4-41
4-47
4-51

 5-1:
5-2:
5-3:
5-4:
5-5:
5-6:
5-7:
5-8:
5-9:
5-10:
5-11:
5-12:
5-13:
5-14:
6-1:
6-2:
7-1:
7-2:

...................................................................................
..............................................................

.......
(Scenario Development)...................................
. 2568 (..2025) ..........
.........................................
.. 2534 (..1991)....................................
..........................................
.. 2568
(..2025)........................................................................................................
..........................................................
...............................
Global Scenario Group.......................
IPCC....................................................

(Story and Simulation)........................................................................
..........................................
3 ....................................................
(PES)
..........................................................................................................
(PES)
...............................................................

5-2
5-3
5-4
5-10
5-15
5-16
5-22
5-27
5-30
5-35
5-37
5-38
5-39
5-44
6-22
6-26
7-25
7-26



1-1: ................................................................................ 1-7
1-2: System Dynamic
:
(Stock) (Nonrenewable Stock Stock Limit)......................... 1-8
1-3: System Dynamic
:
(Stock)
(Renewable Stock Flow Limit)...................................................................... 1-9
1-4: (Scenarios).................................................................................. 1-11
1-5:
.................................................................................... 1-12
1-6:
..................................................................................................... 1-14
1-7:
.............................................................................................. 1-15
1-8: ................................................... 1-16
1-9:
20 .......................................... 1-22
1-10: ................................... 1-26
2-1: (MEAs)...... 2-3
2-2:
........................................................................................ 2-29
2-3:
........................................................................................ 2-30
2-4: (Freshwater)
......................................................................................... 2-31
2-5: ............ 2-33
2-6:
......................................................................................... 2-34
vi


2-7:
2-8:
2-9:
2-10:
2-11:
2-12:
2-13:
2-14:
2-15:
2-16:
2-17:
2-18:
2-19:
2-20:
2-21:
2-22:
2-23:
2-24:
2-25:
2-26:
3-1:
3-2:
3-3:
3-4:

.. 2540-2559......................................................................................

.. 2540-2559 .................................................................
..........
40 ...........

2552.....................................

.......................................................................................

...................................................................................................
.. 2551.................................................................
().........................
().......................................................

.. 2544-2554 ()...............................
.. 2544-2554 ()..........................................................
( )..........

( 1980=100)...................................................................................
()..........
()..............................
()........................................
2555 2554.................................
.....................................

...............................................................................................................

...............................................................................
(: )............................
(: )...........
.....................................
vii

2-36
2-37
2-40
2-40
2-42
2-43
2-44
2-50
2-51
2-51
2-54
2-54
2-58
2-59
2-59
2-63
2-64
2-68
2-69
2-70
3-17
3-39
3-40
3-41


3-5:
3-6:
3-7:
3-8:
3-9:
3-10:
3-11:
3-12:
3-13:
3-14:
3-15:
3-16:
4-1:
4-2:
4-3:
5-1:
5-2:
5-3:
5-4:
5-5:
5-6:
5-7:

( .. 1980 100).......................
.. 2531 2553.................................................
.......................................

(Human Development Indicator)

..1980-2011..................................................................................................
.....................
...............
CO2
............................................................................................................
CO2
..................................................................................
CO2
....................................................................................................

20 .......................................................................................

20 ..............................................
.................................
...........

(Scheme of a Sound Material CycleSociety).......................................................
. ...............................................................................
International Futures Project Scenarios............................................
2555 (2012).....................................................................
2563 (2020)....................................................................
.....................................
..............................................................................
10 .. 2544
(. 1991).............................................................................................................
.. 2568 (.. 2025).......................................................
viii

3-42
3-43
3-43
3-44
3-45
3-46
3-47
3-47
3-48
3-49
3-51
3-52
4-6
4-11
4-12
5-8
5-8
5-9
5-13
5-20
5-24
5-27

 5-8:
5-9:
5-10:
5-11:
6-1:
6-2:
6-3:
6-4:
6-5:

.. 2562.....................................................................
Van Asselt et al. (.. 1998)..................
Tibbs (..1999).....................................
Kok et al. (..2011)...............................
..............................................
(Driving Force) 3 ................................
(Scenario Logic) ................................
......................................

....................................................................
6-6: ...................
6-7:
.......................................................................................
7-1:
...................................................................................................
7-2: ........................................................................
7-3:
................................................................................................................
7-4:
(Multi-level Governance)......................................................................................
7-5:
(Adaptive Governance).......
7-6:
20 .................................................................................... .........
7-7: ................
7-8:
Environmental Kuznets Curve...............................................
7-9:
.........................................
7-10:
...........................................................................
ix

5-31
5-40
5-41
5-43
6-2
6-5
6-6
6-7
6-33
6-34
6-35
7-3
7-4
7-5
7-6
7-8
7-10
7-12
7-13
7-15
7-16

 7-11:
7-12:
7-13:
7-14:
7-15:
7-16:
7-17:
7-18:
7-19:
7-20:
7-21:

.................................................... 7-17
7-23

(Nonrenewable Stock Stock Limit)..............................................................

7-24
(Renewable Stock Flow Limit)......................................................................
(PES).......................................... 7-25
..................... 7-31
(Sound Material Cycle System)........................... 7-32
...................... 7-40

............................................................................................................... 7-42
.................. 7-45
................... 7-50
(Leverage Points) ................................................................. 7-55


1.


( 1)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

1 .. 2560
2579

(Scenario Building)


2
3 4

1

( 1) 2


( 1)

Global Environmental Outlook 5 UNEP (2012b)


(Business as Usual)

5 (Atmosphere)
x

 (Soil Resource) (Water Resources)

(Biodiversity) (Chemicals and Waste) ( 2)
Global Environmental Outlook 5
(OECD, 2012)



4
. 2050
1.
2.
3.
40

4.
5.

.. 2540-2559 (2553)

33

13 .. 2540
3 ( 33 )
1

2

(GDP)
1
xi

 16



5

7
50 (
)

( )


95
20

(Delphi Method)
20





10


( 3)
2. 20
(Scenario)
20
3 (1) (Go Green)
2.0
(Sustainable Development 2.0)



xii


(2) (Decentralization)

(3) (Borderless)


3

3 20 (
5 6)
1. (From Grave to Green)

(Go
Green)
(Decentralization)



20

xiii

(Go Green)
(Green Party)





2. (Molted Crab)

(Go

Green) (Borderless)
(Global Citizen)

20


Global Zoning

5-10

(
)
(New Cold War)
xiv

3. (Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green) (Decentralization)

20








3. 20

(Scenario building workshop)
2


4


xv


20





7
1.


(Resource Decoupling) (Impact
Decoupling) (Green Economy)
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.

7.

xvi

 1

(Resource
Decoupling)
(Impact Decoupling)
(Green Economy)


(Resource Decoupling)
(Impact Decoupling) (Green Economy)
20
20

(Relatively Decoupling Stage)


(Absolutely Decoupling Stage)
(
7-12 7-13)

(Green Investment)
(2553)


2

4.48

2 10.9 (
4 )
(

) (
)

xvii


1 20
( 7)

(Green Job)

(Green Investment)

Lifestyles & Education)

(Sustainable

(Green Technology)

xviii

( 7)

2 20

-
(PES)
(Green
Conditional Cash Transfer, Green CCT)
-

- (National Account)
-
- 40 25

-

-
-

-

-


(Sustainable Land Management)
- (Competitiveness)
(Responsiveness)

xix

3

3
(Impact Decoupling)

(Polluter Pays Principle: PPP)
(Internalization of Environmental Costs)



(Preventive
approaches)


(Full Life Cycle)



(Cradle to
Cradle)

3 20
( 7)

(Cradle to Cradle)
xx

(Material Flow Accounts, MFA)
(Social Cost)


(Waste to Energy)





(E-waste)


(Green Finance)
(Green Credit)

2 (Mitigation)

(Adaptation)



(Resilience)
xxi

(Low Carbon Economy)


(Adaptation)
(Mitigation)













(Climate-resilient Society)

xxii

 () ..
2555-2593 4
5
1.
2.
3.
4.

5.

..
2560 2579
( 2) ..2556
.. 2555-2593

5

20





5 20


-




xxiii

-

- 190

- (Strategic
Environmental Assessment: SEA)

-

-
(MEAs)
- (Political Space)
(Polycentric)
-

-

- SDGs
- 10


(GMS)
xxiv

-

(GMS)
-
-
6

20 ( .
)

Subsidiarity

xxv

 .











7




7 20


(Environmental Education)
(Active Citizenship)
Green GDP ,
(Natural Accounting)
(Sustainable
Development Goals, SDGs)

(Agenda Setting)


(Green Tax) (PES)
xxvi

(Green Conditional Cash Transfer

)

(Material Flow)

(Green Policy Bank)

(Public Environmental Expenditure Review: PEER)

(Strategic Environmental Assessment: SEA)

xxvii



(Adaptive Governance)


4.
.. 2560-2579

( 1)
.. 2560-2579

1.

20







4
2.

.. 2558


xxviii

3. ..
2560-2579

.. 2560-2579
3






(Joint KPI)




(Missing Link) (Pre-Conditions)
(Barrier) (Bottleneck)

Infographic

xxix

Executive Summary
1. Overview
This report has been developed under The Long Term Strategy for Enhancement and
Conservation of National Environmental Quality Project (Phase 1) by Office of Natural Resources
and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, in
collaboration with Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA), Sasin Institute of Business
Administration of Chulalongkorn University. This study is the first phase for formulation the Policy
and Prospective Plan for the Enhancement and Conservation of National Environmental Quality
2017-2036 (B.E. 2560-2579), which will constitute the new long-term natural resources and
environmental plan for Thailand, with a purpose of balancing social, economic and environmental
objectives to ensure sustainability, while encouraging participation from all sectors in the
environmentally-friendly conservation, preservation, and restoration of the natural resources in
order to secure the well-being of present and future generations.
This study developed the Scenario Building process to envision future in alternative ways
due to uncertainties and risks encountered. The scenarios will contribute to the understandings of
interactions of forces and drivers leading to the future. This study comprises of 2 roundtable
discussions, 3 Delphi surveys, 4 focus groups brainstorming sessions, and a national public
discussion of the draft report. The final output of The Long Term Strategy for Enhancement and
Conservation of National Environmental Quality Project (Phase 1) are: the Vision and Strategic
Issues Report on Natural Resources and Environmental Management, and the Final Report of The
Long Term Strategy for Enhancement and Conservation of National Environmental Quality Project
(Phase 1).
The current situation and trends in global natural resources and environment is effectively
summarized in UNEPs Global Environmental Outlook 5 (UNEP 2012b) which reaffirms that the
world is speeding down an unsustainable path, and if it continues on with business as usual, then
there will be an unprecedented levels of deterioration and degradation to the natural resources and
environment, with substantial adverse effect on humanity. The report highlights 5 keys global
natural resources and environmental issues: Atmosphere; Land; Water; Biodiversity; and,
Chemicals and Waste (see details in ch.2).
xxxi

The Global Environmental Outlook 5 is in line with the findings of OECDs policy simulation
study (OECD, 2012) which found that the high priority environmental issues in the future are:
climate change, biodiversity, natural resources, water, health and environment. And, without more
ambitious policies, by 2050:
1. Accelerating the severity of climate change impact.
2. Biodiversity loss is projected to continue, especially in Asia, Europe and South Africa.
3. Freshwater availability will be further strained in many regions, about 40% of the
global population projected to be living in river basins experiencing severe water
stress, especially in North and South Africa, and South and Central Asia.
4. The health impacts of urban air pollution continue to worsen.
5. Burden of disease related to exposure to hazardous chemicals is significant
worldwide, particularly in developing countries where good chemical safety measures
have not yet been put in place.
This study has reviews, The study of Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy
and Planning (ONEP, 2553) has evaluated the progress in attaining 33 goals from the Policy and
Prospective Plan for the Enhancement and Conservation of National Environmental Quality 19972016 (B.E. 2540-2559), covering all areas of environment, natural resources, education, and
technology, for the last 13 years (since B.E. 2540). The findings are:
Achieve 3 goals: preservation of minimum of 1 million rai1 of mangrove forest;
development of emergency plan for major hazardous incidents; establishment of the
National Toxicology Control Center and Hazardous Substances Data Bank
In the process of achieving 2 goals: energy efficiency and savings, measured by
energy elasticity to GDP growth; and reduction and control of waste to maximum
rate of 1 kilogram per capita per day
On to the direction of 16 goals: for example, conservation, restoration, and
development of water resources; development of adequate energy resources;
control of air quality to meet standards; community environmental management, etc.
Inconclusive evaluation for 5 goals due to limited information, and lack of
quantifiable measure in the plan
1

1 hectare = 6.25 rai or 10,000 sq. m.

xxxii

 Unable to achieve 7 goals: for example, restoration of land; forest land accounting
for 50 percent of all national land; quality of surface water; control of noise level;
reduction of pollution from hazardous materials and sources, etc.
Based on the Delphi methods, found that the most important drivers of Thailands natural
resources and environment during the next 20 years are the competition in natural resource
exploitation, growing intensity of resource depletion of natural resource; impact of climate change,
and increasing in environmental deterioration. The future natural resources and environmental
issues in Thailand are likely unsustainable, in particular biodiversity; integrated water resources
management system; energy scarcity especially, natural gases; increase in amount of waste
following rapid economic development; and more frequent natural disaster (see details in Ch.3).
2. Scenarios for Thailands Natural Resources and Environment in the next 20 years
This study developed future Scenarios for Thailands natural resources and environment
that included participation of experts from every sectors. The three key drivers of scenario in the
next 20 years are: (1) Go Green or Sustainable Development 2.0 which means truly moving
forward to a sustainable future or could be only another paradigm that further ones interest without
any real implementation (2) Decentralization which refers to a transition of power, budget, and
key role of natural resources and environmental management from centralized agencies to the
local authorities and community (3) Borderless which refers to an extended scope of economic,
social, political and environmental issues beyond geographical border to achieve each nations
goals. The three key drivers gave to rise an identification of 3 scenarios that reflect the future of
Thailands natural resources and environment in the next 20 years (See details in Ch.5 and Ch.6):
1. From Grave to Green
This scenario reflects an extreme degradation of natural resources and environment, compelling
people to stand up and together address the problem. In the next 20 years, the local communities
would play an important role in natural resources and environmental management in Thailand.
However, conflicts between communities could occur, requiring the role of central government to assist
in the overall management at national level, and also global linkage. In addition, Thai society becomes
more aware of environmental issues, then adopt Go Green campaign by promoting and consumption
more environmentally-friendly products. In terms of politics, the politician will pay more attention to
environmental problem then establishes Green Party composed of environmental organizations and
xxxiii

community leaders. Moreover, a new national development indicators which incorporate environmental
and happiness aspects would be developed.
2. Molted Crab
This scenario reflects non-boundary problems of natural resources and environmental
management. Therefore, the role of Global Citizen would be emphasized in the accountability and
management of natural resources and environment. During the next 20 years, Thailand would have
more chance to link with regional and global network, where the virtual world overlaps the real. The
emerging international organizations pay a crucial role in addressing global environmental problems.
Global zoning with their own responsibilities and global environmental regulation and punishment would
be more stringent. Then, this could lead to make a better and cleaner world. However, trade
liberalization, highly competitive landscape, and the foreign resource grab should be warranted. In the
next 5-10 year, we could witness a substantial increase in e-waste, water scarcity, high priced fossil
fuel, low productivity due to aging populations, extreme natural disasters, and resources war that could
potentially lead to a New Cold War.
3. Dolphins Riding the Waves
This scenario portrays a united effort to solve natural resources and environmental problems with
a balance of power among public, private, and people sector. Economic prosperity would be distributed
to all areas and connected to neighboring countries. The integrated environmental management master
plan for Asia would be created. The international labour mobility would be caused for cultural diversity.
Awareness of environmentally-friend energy and goods would be increased. International collaboration
in new technologies development would be established. However, resources conflicts could potentially
be extended to the national and regional level.
3. Vision and strategic issues for natural resources and environmental management during
the next 20 years
The vision for Thailands natural resources and environmental management during the next
20 years, derived from Scenario building workshop; the Delphi process with experts; and various
discussion groups is as followed:
Integrated natural resources and environmental management on the basis of
balanced development, fairness, sustainability, and participation of all sectors and localities;
with self-immunity to the impact of climate change and natural disasters; to create
xxxiv

environmentally-friendly economy and society for global community and to ensure wellbeings for the people
The key 7 strategic issues are:
1. Environmentally-friendly production, consumption, investment, and energy use with
a focus on Resource Decoupling, Impact Decoupling, and Green Economy
2. Conservation, development, and restoration of natural resources and biodiversity
for sustaining national capital in Thailand
3. Ensuring Good Environmental Quality for all
4. Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disaster preparedness
5. Collaboration with Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs)
6. Enhancement of the role of local authorities and communities in natural resources
and environmental management
7. Capacity-Building for natural resources and environmental management

xxxv

Strategic Issue#1 Environmentally-friendly production, consumption, investment, and energy

use with a focus on Resource Decoupling, Impact Decoupling, and Green Economy
The important strategic issue is to shift toward a less resource-intensive economic
development with minimal effect on the environment. During the next 20 years, Thailand should be
in the transitioning period that would change to utilize higher energy and natural resource efficiency
and lower environmental impacts (Relatively Decoupling2), and aim to achieve Absolutely
Decoupling as the next phase in the longer term. The approaches towards achieving strategic
issue#1 during the next 20 years should include (see details in Ch.7):
-

Transition from a resource based economy to a knowledge based economy

Supporting green production and manufacturing base via Green Investment
Supporting Green Job
Promotion of environmentally-friendly consumption, resouces including natural
resource conservation, utilization of renewable energy and increasing energy
efficiency.
Encouragement more sustainable city management
Supporting sustainable logistics
Enhancement of green procurement in both public and private sector
Promotion of sustainable lifestyles and education, including integrated with the
principle of Sufficiency Economy Philosophy
Supporting Green Technology, innovation and R&D
Integration of natural resource and environmental considerations into policy
evaluation

Strategic Issue#2 Conservation, development, and restoration of natural resources and

biodiversity for sustaining national capital in Thailand
The approach towards achieving strategic issue#2 during the next 20 years should include
(see details in Ch.7):

Relative decoupling of resources or impacts means that the growth rate of the environmentally relevant parameter (resources used
or some measure of environmental impact) is lower than the growth rate of a relevant economic indicator (for example GDP). With
absolute decoupling, in contrast, resource use declines, irrespective of the growth rate of the economic driver.

xxxvi

 Feasibility study and implementation of Payments for Environmental Services

(PES) and Green Conditional Cash Transfer (Green CCT)
Strengthening local communities roles in forest conservation and sustainable
use
Integration of natural capital into National Account
Establishment of natural resources and biodiversity database system
Increasing forest area and conserved land by 40% and 25%, respectively
Appropriated land use allocation depending on circumstances of the areas
Effectiveness of water resources conservation and restoration
Fiscal decentralization to promote self-management of natural resources and
environment of local authorities and communities.
Improvement of environmental fund administration in order to facilitate budget
access for local administration, private developmental organizations, and public
sector
Ensuring stability of natural resources for food and energy security by taking
natural resources and the impact of climate change into account
Balancing between food and fuel crops by means of zoning; fair compensation
of land use; and, sustainable land management
Keeping the balance between Competitiveness and Responsiveness, especially
the issue of food and energy security
Monitoring and clear policy of foreign land ownership, particularly solving the
nominee ownership problem; and in-depth analysis of cost and benefit of policy
of foreign land ownership
Strategic Issue#3 Ensuring Good Environmental Quality for All
The Strategy focus on the effectiveness of natural resources and environmental
management by balancing among economic, social, and environmental development. The
approaches towards achieving strategic issue#3 during the next 20 years should include (see
details in Ch.7):
- Pollution management by using Cradle to Cradle model which capable to
effective reuse and recycle raw materials and wastes without losing their quality,
including implementation of economy-wide Material Flow Accounts (MFA)
xxxvii

- Putting a price on pollution to reflect its social cost

Development of systematic hazardous waste management in the community
Promotion of public participation in the monitoring of illegal disposal of
hazardous waste, industrial waste, infectious waste and marine pollution and
waste.
Emission controlling for non-point agricultural sources
Giving priority to studying emerging issues such as e-waste, plastic waste,
impacts of open burning, production and use of nanomaterial and nanoparticles,
etc.
Promotion of Green Finance such as Green Credit
Risk Management from various chemicals and new chemicals
Urban and community environmental management and expanding green space
and landscape
Environmental management for natural and cultural sites
Strategic Issue#4 Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disaster Preparedness
Two essential measures widely recognized to address climate change are: 1) Mitigation of
greenhouse gases emission, which has identified as the primary cause for global warming; 2)
Adaptation to the impacts of climate change and the associated effects of global warming
Presently, Thailand has created Draft of Thailand Climate Change Master Plan B.E. 25552593, which is in line with the overall picture of Strategic issue#4. The Plan has outlined 4 key
strategies as followed:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Economic Restructuring toward Low-carbon Economy and Society

Climate Change Adaptation
Greenhouse Gas mitigation
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon sinks by increasing
forest coverage
5. Community capacity-building for risk management from the impacts of climate
change

xxxviii

Therefore, the formulation of the Policy and Prospective Plan for the Enhancement and
Conservation of National Environmental Quality 2017-2036 (B.E. 2560-2579) under The Long Term
Strategy for Enhancement and Conservation of National Environmental Quality Project (Phase 2)
should further incorporate and integrate these key aspects from the Thailand Climate Change
Master Plan.
Strategic Issue#5 Collaboration with Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs)
The approach towards achieving strategic issue#5 during the next 20 years should include (see
details in Ch.7):
Strengthening Thailands capacity for collaboration with Multilateral Environmental
Agreements and trade and investment agreements that have impacts on environment.
Supporting relevant studies and researches to increase understanding of MEAs
and trade agreements related to environmental issues; and increase monitoring
ongoing of international negotiations and positions to prepare appropriate
national responses
Encouraging active public participation in implementing the international
environmental agreements that have been ratified
Measures preparation for the environmental impact of international trade
agreements, and international agreements on environmental and climate
change; monitoring major environmental policies and measures of other
countries, especially our main trade partners as well as establishment of
proactive measures strategy toward environmental issues
Supporting the use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for
international trade agreement evaluation
Capacity-building for personnel responsible for negotiations and implementation
of international environmental agreement.
Enhancing capacity of related organizations and institutions in academic
information management to raise robust knowledge for trade and environmental
negotiations
Conducting the studies to understand the relationship between WTO regulations
and trade measures in multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs)
xxxix

 Opening the political space for public discourse and ensuring polycentric
arrangement to decentralize power
Integrated implementation of international environmental agreements at national
level
Development of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for Thailand and
collaboration with international mechanism to develop the global measures
Preparation for the formulation of Thailands 10-year framework of programmes
on Sustainable production and consumption
Enhancement regional cooperation on natural resources and environmental
management in ASEAN and Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)
Encouraging the formulation of Natural Resources and Environmental Master
Plan for ASEAN and more collaborations with ASEAN and GMS countries
Preventing of illegal transboundary wildlife trade
Supporting the establishment of the environmental organizations at the ASEAN
level
Strategic Issue#6 Enhancement of the role of local authorities and communities in natural
resources and environmental management
The approach towards achieving strategic issue#6 during the next 20 years should include
(see details in Ch.7):
Strengthening environmental laws and regulations, particularly in the area that
concerns the environmental quality management at the local level by identifying
obviously process and each responsible agencys role to ensure no potential conflict
among each local administration.
Consideration environmental budget allocation for local
Creating environmental monitoring and evaluation system with key indicators
appropriate to the local context
Decentralization from the central government organization to the local
administration; Capacity-building for local administration; Supporting database of
local environmental information and key indicators
xl

 Facilitating of various stakeholders in the local area in all process of natural

resources and environmental management
Encouraging the local communities to generate their environmental state evaluation
report.
Establishment of environmental warning system at the local level
Strategic Issue# 7 Capacity-Building for natural resources and environmental management
Raising awareness of environmental issues in all stakeholders, through
Environmental Education, and encouraging Active Citizenship
Creating national development indicators that incorporate environmental aspects
such as Green GDP and Natural Accounting, Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs)
Encouraging public participation in Agenda setting, policy formation and
implementation, law enforcement, and monitoring
Increasing use of economic instruments for environmental policy such as Green
Tax, Green Conditional Cash Transfer, Financial Innovation for the environment,
etc.
Consideration for the use of Material Flow Accounts (MFA)
Creating integrated database of natural resources and environment information at
local and national level
Reviewing rules and regulations that will facilitate the effectiveness and
transparency natural resources and environmental management, and increase
efficiency and effectiveness of law enforcement
Creating Green Policy Bank to collect, share, and encourage learning and
innovation in environmentally-friendly policy
Creating inspection mechanism for resource allocation of natural resources and
environmental management such as Public Environmental Expenditure Review
(PEER)
Supporting the use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in both policy
making and implementing level that impact on the environment
xli

 Facilitating access to justice process concerning environmental issues, and to

negotiate to avoid conflicts
Consideration for the establishment Environmental Court for law enforcement
effectively
Capacity building of personnel regarding natural resources and environmental
management and also creating environmental leader for new generation in all
sectors (public, private, people, and media)
Supporting environmentally-friendly Science and Technology (S&T) and innovation
Promoting the disclosure of environmental information of private known to the
sector including creating incentives and motivated mechanism for environmentallyfriendly business
Establishment environmental fund to support the research and innovation
Supporting the roundtable discussion of natural resource and environment
management among all stakeholder in a consistent manner to build adaptive
governance
Supporting the platform for exchanging information, situation, and knowledge of
enhancement and protection of environment for regional level to contribute the
national level
4. Recommendations to formulation of the Policy and Prospective Plan for the
Enhancement and Conservation of National Environmental Quality 2017-2036 (B.E.
2560-2579)
1. Scenarios-building at the regional or local levels
The national scenarios derived from this study should also be presented and replicated at
the regional or local level to explore their possible linkage among local, regional and national
scenarios, and to identify any additional issues concerning the natural resources and environmental
management for specific geographic areas, in addition to prioritize the importance of the strategic
issues. The regional scenario-building could be implemented in at least 4 regions: Central,
Northern, Northeast, and South regions.
2. Analysis of trends and directions of natural resources and environment in ASEAN
xlii

The next phase of the study could go beyond the national level to incorporate the
implication of ASEAN, and the impending liberalization in 2015, in terms of the free movement of
goods and services, financial capital, labour, and international logistics, the relocation of
manufacturing base, the effect of climate change to ASEAN community, and the energy security
within ASEAN.
3. Recommendations to formulation of the Policy and Prospective Plan for the
Enhancement and Conservation of National Environmental Quality 2017-2036 (B.E.
2560-2579)
The plan and policy formulation should consist of 3 phases: immediate;
medium-term; and, long-term, with a clear identification of indicators and
timeframe for each strategic issues. The absence of indicators requires further
investigations to collect more information, and responsible agencies should be
identified.
Joint KPIs should be developed to enhance the integration of function across
various agencies and sectors to ensure successful delivery of natural resources
and environmental management.
The plan and policy formulation should involved the analysis of missing link,
conditions, and existing barrier or bottleneck in order to identify the key obstacle
in the process such as insufficient budget, lack of personnel, limited law
enforcements, etc.
The plan should be published both in the formal print and a reader-friendly
format that is less technical and easy to understand by the general public.
Consider creating Infographic for important strategic issues to appeal to
younger generation.

xliii

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1.1

(.)

(Roadmap)




20

.
.. 2540-2559
13 (1)
.. 2535



5 35
.. 2535


.

1-1

2 1
.. 2555

2 .. 2556


20
20
(.)



1.2


20


20
1.3

.
( Scenario)
.. 2579

.
(Scenario)


20

1-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1.4
232
1.5
1.5.1



5.1.1

20

20

20

1.5.2 1.5.1 (Foresight)
20
(Scenario) 20 2
1.
2. (Scenario)
1.5.3

20 1 70
1.5.1-1.5.2
1.5.4 ()
(Multi-stakeholder Analysis)

20
1-3

1.5.5
()
1 70
1.5.6
20
(Foresight)
(Delphi)
200
1.5.7
20
4
1.5.8
20 ()
20

1.5.1.1 1.5.1.5
(Scenario)


20
1.5.9 ()
20 1
300
1.5.10

20 300

( 1) 200
1-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1.5.1 1.5.9
()

1.6
1.6.1







(Climate
Change) (The Rise of Asia)
(Ageing Society) (Social Conflict)

(UN)
(Sustainable Development)



(Capital Approach)



(Stock of Assets) (Capital)
(Collapse)
6

1-5

(Drivers) (Impacts) (Pressures)
(Respones)

(Scenario)
20
20
(Uncertainties)
(Surprises) 1-1

1-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1-1:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

: GEO-4

(System Dynamics)
2

(Nonrenewable Resource)

30 58
131

( )
(Renewable Stock)

( 1-2)

1-7

(Renewable Resource) (Source)
(Sink)




(Flow Rate)
(Regeneration Rate)
(Critical Threshold)
(Nonrenewable Stock)
(Climate Change)
( 1-3)

Stock Limit Flow Limit

1-2: System Dynamic

:
(Stock) (Nonrenewable Stock Stock Limit)

: Meadows (2008)

1-8

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1-3: System Dynamic

:
(Stock) (Renewable Stock Flow Limit)

: Meadows (2008)

/
(Long-term Perspective)
3
1.

(Feedback)



2. (Delay)

1-9

3. (Inertia of System)
(Status Quo)




(Plausible) (Expected) (Preferred)

( 1-4)

1-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1-4: (Scenarios)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

: IEA Training Manual Module 6: Scenario development and analysis

4

( , 2554)

(Economic Wealth):

(Social Well-being):

4

-



(, 2551)

1-11

(Environmental Wellness):

(Individual Wisdom):
9 Max-Neef (1)
(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
(8) (9)

1-5:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

( 1-6)





1-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

( 1-7)











11

1-13

1-6:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

1-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1-7:

, ,

Trade-off
/

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

Top-down Bottom-up

1-15

1-8:
.

Top-down

B1

A1

B2

A2

Bottom-up

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

:

Top-down
Bottom-up
(Technological Change) (Attitude
Toward the Environment)

1-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

20


20

20

1.6.2

( 1)

6

1.
2.
3.
4. (Foresight) (Delphi)
5. /
6.

20 3

1-17

1)



20


20
20


( 1)
2) (Scenario)
20
(Foresight)
20 3
1
11 .. 2555



20

My Choice Clicker
(Real Time)
98

(Delphi
Method)
(Delphi Method) 1 2
(Delphi Method)
1-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1 2

20
1 400
130 2
400 100
2
(Scenario)
20

77
3 3

1. (Horizon Scanning)
(Weak Signals/
Early Warning)
2. (Backcasting Technique)
(Scenario Logic)

3. (Scenario Building)

(Future Vision)
(Long-Term Policy)
3)
20

20
( 1)
1-19

20
2

()
4
1. 1
(Green Socioeconomic in the Age of Extremity) 9
2555


(Resource Decoupling and Impact
Decoupling) (Cradle to Cradle)


2. 2

(Food-Fuel-Freshwater Security in the
Context of Climate Change) 17 2555

3. 3

(Environmental Agreement in the

Context of Sustainable Development) 22 2555
Rio+20

1-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4. 4
(Environmental Governance and Public-PrivatePeople Partnership) 24 2555







(Delphi Method) 3

20

92
()
20

1-21

1-9:
20

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

1-22

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1-1:
: ( 1)
210

1.
2.

40

/// //
///

4. (Foresight)
20

/////
/ /

6. (Scenario)
20
7.
20
8. ()
9. ()

10.
11.
12.
20

70

70
40
4
( 20
)

90

120

150

180

210

////
/ //
///
////
/ /
/// //
////
/// /
/// //
////
/// /

////
/////

13.
20
14. ()
15. ()

16.
17.

300

/////
/ /
/// /
/// //
////
///

18.

200

300

60

/// /

3.

5.
5
20
( 40
(Foresight)
)

()
30

: *

1-23

 (Inception Report)
( 1)

1.7

1-2:

()1/

20

(Inception Report)

40

120

(Interim Report)
(TOR) 1.5.1 1.5.5 40

20 300

232

(Final Report)
(TOR) 1.5.1 1.5.10
200

: 1/

1-24

1.8


Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

3
1) .
2) ..
3) .

1
1)

4
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

4
1)
2)
3)
4)

1
1)

1-25

 (Inception Report)
( 1)

1-10:

..

1-3:

1-26

1-27

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2

2




2
2.1
Global Environmental Outlook 5
(United Nations Environment Programme:UNEP) (2012b)

(Business as Usual)


5
(Atmosphere) (Land Use) (Water Resources)
(Biodiversity) (Chemicals and Waste)

90
(Significant Progress) 4

(Montreal Protocol)

(Some Progress) 40

(Very Little or No Progress) 24

2-1

(Deteriorating) 8
(1) (Wetlands)
(2)
(3)
(4)

3 50
80

(5)

(Extreme Event) 38 230
1980 2000
415
114 (6)
(7)
(8)


14

2-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-1: (MEAs)
( : )

: UNEP, 2012b

(Atmosphere)







2

20


2-3

(Land)

2-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Water Resources)

(Supply)

(Millennium Development Goals: MDGs)
.. 2010 600
.. 2015
10





(Trade Off)




(Biodiversity)


2-5

(Invasive Alien Species)

100 .. 2000-2005
20 .. 1970

.. 2554-2563 (Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020)
(Aichi Biodiversity Targets)
(Benefit Sharing)
(Chemical and Waste)











OECD ( ) BRICS ( )


(E-waste)

2-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Earth System)

(Non-linear Interactions)

2
(Driver)

Global Environmental Outlook 5
(OECD,
2012)

4 . 2050

2-7

1.
2.
3.
40

4.
5.

(InterLinkage)

1) :
(Emission Trading Schemes)

(Global Supply Chains)
(Global Value Chains)

2) :

3) :


4) :
(Fossil Fuel)

2-8

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5) :



(Green Growth)
6) :

(Eco-Labelling)

(Complementary)


(Environmental Effectiveness) (Social
Equity) (Cost Efficiency)
OECD (2012)
.. 2050
5
(Socioeconomic Developments) (Climate
Change) (Biodiversity) (Water) (Health and
Environment)
(Socioeconomic Developments)
- 7 9 .. 2050

- (World GDP) 4 .. 2050

2-9

-

.. 2030 .. 2050
- 25 OECD 65
.. 2050 65 15
.. 2050

- .. 2010 ..
2050 70 ..
2050
(Energy and Land Use)
.. 2050
- 4 80
.. 2050
-

(Global Energy Mix) .. 2050

85
10 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India,
Indonesia, China and South Africa)

(Climate Change)
.. 2050
- (Greenhouse Gas: GHG)

50
(CO2)

2-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- 685
(ppm CO2- equivalents) .. 2050

3 6
2
- (Cancun Agreements)
(United Nations Climate
Change Conference)

2 ..
2020

-

70
..2050
450 ppm (450 core scenario)
0.2 5.5 GDP
.. 2050
14

-
(Cancun Agreements)

(Taxes or Cap-and-trade Schemes)
0.6 GDP .. 2020 250

-
.. 2020 50 .. 2050

-
45-75 OECD
400
2-11

.. 2010
(IEA)

6



(Biodiversity)
.. 2050
-

(Mean Species Abundance: MSA) 10 .. 2050

- (Mature Forest Areas)

13
-
( )


-
.. 2050

-

.. 2050

-

13

(Temperate Grasslands)
(Savannas) (Shrublands)
7.2 (Territorial Seas)
-
(Aichi Stetigic Plan)
2-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

17
10 .. 2020

(Convention on Biological Diversity) 17
9.8

- (Maximise Policy Synergies and
Co-benefits):

2

(Trade-offs)


7 ..
2050
.. 2020
(Water)
.. 2050
- (Freshwater Availability)
2.3 ( 40 )

(Global Water Demand) 55

( 400), ( 140)
( 130)

-
BRICS
240

.. 2050
(Millennium
Development Goal: MDG)
.. 2015 ( .. 1990 )
2-13

- (MDG for Sanitation)

.. 2015 .. 2050
1.4
(Health and Environment)
.. 2050
-


(World Health
Organization)
- (Particulate Matter : PM)

1 3.6 .. 2050

- (Ground-level Ozone)

( 385,000 800,000 ) .. 2010

.. 2050
- (SO2) (NOx)

.. 2000 90
50 .. 2050
- 2

PM10 ( WHO
20 g/m3) 70 BRICS

( 70 g/m3) .. 2050
(Baseline Scenario)
WHO 70 g/m3

2-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

OECD

(Global Emerging Environmental

Issues)
UNEP
21 21 (21 Issues for the
21st Century: Result of the UNEP Foresight Process on Emerging Environmental Issues)
(UNEP, 2012a) 95
(Foresight Process)

( 933 428
)
5
1. (Cross-cutting Issues)


2. (Food, Biodiversity and Land Issues)

3. (Freshwater and Marine Issues)



4. (Climate Change Issues)
(Mitigation)
(Adaptation)

5. (Energy, Technology, and Waste Issues)

2-15

(Cross-cutting issues)
1.
(Aligning Governance
to the Challenges of Global Sustainability)

21






2. 21
(Transforming Human Capabilities for the 21th
Century: Meeting Global Environmental Challenges and Moving Towards a Green
Economy)








(Green Job)



3. (Broken Bridges: Reconnecting Science and
Policy)




(Science-Policy Dialogues)
2-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4. (Social
Tipping Points? Catalyzing Rapid and Transformative Changes in Human Behavior towards
the Environment)

5. (New Concepts for
Coping with Creeping Changes and Imminent Thresholds)

6. (Coping
with Migration Caused by New Aspects of Environmental Change)




2-17

(Food, Biodiversity and Land
Issues)
7.

9
(New Challenges for Ensuring Food Safety and Food Security for 9 Billion
People)

8. (Beyond
Conservation: Integrating Biodiversity Across the Environmental and Economic Agendas)








2-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

9.
(Boosting Urban Sustainability and
Resilience)

(Green Cities Eco Cities)





10. (The New Rush for
Land: Responding to New National and International Pressures)

(Nominee)

(Freshwater and Marine Issues)

11.
(New Insights on Water-Land Interactions: Shift in the Manangement Paradigm)







12. (Shortcutting the
Degradation of Inland Waters in Developing Countries)
2-19

13.
(Potential Collapse of Oceanic Systems Requires Integrated Ocean Governance)

14.
(Coastal Ecosystems: Addressing Increasing
Pressures with Adaptive Governance)

(Climate change issues)
15.

(New Challenges for Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation: Managing the Unintended Consequences)
2-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

16.
(Acting on the Signal of Climate Change in the Changing
Frequency of Extreme Events)




17. (Glacier Retreat)
(Managing the Impacts of Glacier Retreat)

(Energy, technology, and waste issues)

18.
(Accelerating the
Implementation of Environmentally - Friendly Renewable Energy Systems)

19. (Greater Risk than Necessary?
The Need for a New Approach for Minimizing Risks of Novel Technologies and Chemicals)

2-21

20. (Changing the Face

of Waste: Solving the Impending Scarcity of Strategic Minerals and Avoiding Electronic
Waste)

(Rare Earth Metals)



( )


21. (The Environmental
Consequences of Decommissioning Nuclear Reactors)



.. 2011

2-22

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-1: 21

Cross-cutting Issues

1.

2.
21

(Green
Job)

3.

(Science-Policy Dialogues)

4.

2-23

5.

18

6.

20

Food, Biodiversity and Land

Issues

7.

8.

9.

11

2-24

 (Final Report)
( 1)

10.

12

Freshwaters and Marine Issues

11.

12.

15

13.

13

14.

19

Climate Change Issues

15.

2-25

16.

16

17.

(Glacier Retreat)

21

Energy, Technology and Waste

Issues

18.

19.

10

20.

14

(

)

2-26

 (Final Report)
( 1)

21.

17

: UNEP (2012)
:

5 (Global Environment Outlook 5) UNEP

5
(Climate Change)
(Biodiversity) (Freshwater) (Chemicals and Waste)
(Environmental Governance)
1. (Climate Change)





2-27

(Business as Usual Scenarios)

(EnergyRelated Emissions) 45 .. 2030 60 .. 2100
(Masui et al, 2011)

(Transport-Related Emissions) 57 .. 20052030

(Precautionary Approach)

(Clean
Energy Policy) (Energy Efficiency) (Technology)
(Finance) (Adaptation) (Land
Management for Carbon Sequestration)

2-28

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-2:

: UNEP (2012b)

2. (Biodiversity)

(Species)

(Conservation of Biological Diversity)
(Targeted Species Conservation) (Illegal Wildlife Trade)

(Community Management)
2-29

(Innovative Financing Mechanisms)

(Access and Benefit Sharing)
2-3:

: UNEP (2012b)

3. (Freshwater)

2-30

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Adaptive and Integrated Water
Resources Management) (Water Allocation and Cooperation)
(Basic Human Needs) (Wateruse Effiency) (Water Environment)
2-4: (Freshwater)

: UNEP (2012b)

4. (Chemicals and Waste)

(Participatory
Approach)
2-31

(Preventive Approaches)


(Full Life Cycle)

2-32

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-5:

: UNEP (2012b)

5. (Environmental Governance)

4

(Policy
Integration and Mainstreaming) (Strengthening
Incentive Structures) (Accountability and
Strakeholder Participation) (Compliance and Enforcement)

2-33

2-6:

: UNEP (2012b)

2.2
1.
2540-2559

..

.. 2540-2559 (.) (2553)
33

13 .. 2540
3 ( 33 )
1

2-34

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2

(GDP)
1
16



5

7
50 (
)

( )


95

2-35

2-7:
.. 2540-2559 ( : )

: (.) (2553)

2-36

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-8:
.. 2540-2559

: (.) (2553)
: A+ A B C D

2-37

2.

(
(.) (2553) .. 2520
333 163 . 2540
2.60 ( 4.2
.. 2551) .. 2543
229.09

159.39 69.6
1



0.3
(.. 2544-2553) .. 2553

40
0F

( 22.6) ( 7.2)

2-38

 (Final Report)
( 1)
2

60 (.. 2494-2553)

50



3
60
4




.. 2554

.. 2494-2553 184
170 13 1 5
1

(2553)
(2553)
4
(2553)
5

3

2-39

2-9:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

:

.. 1962, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 2008

2-10: 40

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

2-40

 (Final Report)
( 1)

( (Sasin Institute for Global Affair: SIGA), 2554a.)
-

-




-

) ( )
( )
( )

-

(2551 )



2-41

-



2-11:

.. 2552

: SEA START (Sasin Institute for Global Affairs). 2010a.

2-42

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-12:

1 = 2-1
2 = 4-3
3 = 6-5
4 = 8-7
5 = 9-10

: (2551)
: SEA START

2-43

2-13:

3 =

2 =

: (2551)
: SEA START

2-44

1 =

 (Final Report)
( 1)

.. 2551-2555
6 (1)
(2)

(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)

11 .. 2555-2559
.. 2555-2559 ()
.. 2555-2593
.. 2550-2555
( )
138 8.54
( .. 2554)



3.

2-45

.. 2504- 2541
90

()

.. 2544 5,928

( , 2553)


.. 2547
4,591
6
7 84 500


.. 2548
1,407 135

19


2-46

 (Final Report)
( 1)

36 6
5 25


50 (.. 2504
2554)
40
30

.. 2553

- 29

30-34

70
- .. 2553
20-90

30-40

..
2541 3 .. 2551-2555

2-47

4.





.. 2504
53 27 .. 2532
...
.. 2532

50
10 .. 2552
33.6 (2555)

40 ( 2-15)
.. 2541 - 2553

2.2 ( , 2554)

.. 2543 -2553 0.548
.. 2543 0.055
.. 2552

.. 2539-2540
90 1 10
100 30
5 (
, 2540)


.. 2444 .. 2553
31 127
2-48

 (Final Report)
( 1)

.. 2552
(
, 2552)



.. 2539-2540

110 134
191 (
, 2540) 50
( ) ( , 2550)


.. 2539-2540

(
, 2540)

55


(
, 2554)

.. 25462552
8.4
.. 25462553 14.7
.. 2546 2553 17
2-49

2-14: .. 2551

: (2551)

2-50

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-15: ()

: (2555)
:

2-16: ()

: (2555)

2-51

5.

.. 2523-2533 20,530
43,000





.. 2537
50 (
, 2540)
( , 2555)
3 10 (.. 2544-2553)
.. 2553 .. 2553
49,872 71
2552

.. 2544-2554
.. 2554



2-52

 (Final Report)
( 1)

( ,2555a)


(2554)

1.13
15

( , 2555a)

.. 2544-2554

47 36 .. 2544 2

36 .. 2554


11 .. 2544 50 .. 2553

2-53

2-17:

.. 2544-2554 ()

: (2555b)

2-18: .. 2544-2554 ()

: (2555b)

2-54

 (Final Report)
( 1)

.. 2554

65
4 13.5 815 (
, 2551) 7
1.44
4

5 1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

8

2-55

6.



5-10

.. 2539-2540

.. 2540
1.2 3 .. 2530
2540 62
95 ..
2540 21,452
( , 2542)

10 ( ,
2555) ( 50)
21

2-56

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5 ( .. 2549 2553)
3
.. 2553 71,166
.. 2552 6.7
1,294 ( , 2553)


(Business as usual) 71,000
151,000 2.1
20 (
, 2553)




6 .. 2553
64,017 .. 2552
3.2 9,156
10.4 161
62.5 .. 2553
.. 2552 12,531
7 .. 2553 7,148
21.2
.. 2553 10
( 7.3 .. 2551)
15 .. 2551-2565
20 .. 2565
5

6
7

. (2555b)
. (2555b)

2-57

2-19: ( )

: (2555)
: P1 (Proved Reserve) P2 (Probable Reserve) P3
(Possible Reserve)

2-58

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-20:
( 1980=100)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

:

2-21: ()

: (2555)

2-59

.. 2553 198,059
43
3
( 41.7) ( 27.3)
( 22.3) ( , 2553)
7.

.. 2530
18 .. 2552
34


5

2.24 .. 2546 4.16 .. 2553 (
, 2553)
.. 2550 .. 2553

4.21
.. 2554 5,000 ..
2555 ( , 2554)

20
3 1)
2) 3)

2-60

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4.6

8.

.. 2540

37,102
24
35 41 (
(.), 2540)

.. 2554

15.98



8 15.98
.. 2554

5.64 35






9 .. 2554
12.82
7F

8F

8
9

(.) (2555a)
(.) (2555a)

2-61

8.58 ( 67)
10

45 .. 2544 67 .. 2554
10
2.01
.. 2531 12.24 .. 2539 (
, 2542)
70.38 .. 2554
14.7 85.3


11
9

10

10
11

(2555a)
(2554b)

2-62

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-22: ( )

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

: UN

2-63

2-23: ()

: Sasin Instute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

: Log (Waste) =14.2 + 0.14 Log (Rgdp) + 0.73 AR
(1) 2537-2554 (Adjusted R2 94.1% )

9.





.. 2540



.. 2554
10 (PM10)




2-64

 (Final Report)
( 1)

.. 2540 24

(
, 2542)

( ) 24

10.

20 .. 2555 127
21 148 56
2-65

( 13 ) 40 ( 6 ) 24 ( 1
) 26 ( 1 ) (
, 2554) .. 2553 113 (
, 2553)




.. 2553 .. 2554
.. 2554 .. 2554

11.

.. 2553 45 .. 2554
32
.. 2553
.. 2554 18


.. 2554
32

1.3 2-24 .. 2554 2555
2-66

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5
.. 2553 .. 2554 6.9
24 .. 2554

3,148

(
) 12

830 26.4

730

100

2-22

11

2-26
3

12

(.) (2555b)

2-67

2-24: 2555 2554

: () (2555)

2-68

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2-25:

: (2551)

2-69

2-26:

(1 )

- -

( )

: SEA START RC (Sasin Institute for Global Affairs) (2010)

2-70

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2.3
Global Environmental Outlook 5 (United
Nations Environment Programme:UNEP) (2012b)



(Business as Usual)

5 (Atmosphere)
(Soil Resource) (Water Resources) (Biodiversity)
(Chemicals and Waste)
Global Environmental Outlook 5
(OECD, 2012)


4
. 2050
1.
2.
3.
40

4.
5.

.. 2540-2559
(.) (2553)
33
13 .. 2540
2-71

3 ( 33 )
1


2

(GDP)
1
16



5

7
50 (
)

( )


95




10

2-72

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3
20
(Driver)
(Uncertainty)
20



1
(Delphi)
1-2

3.1

5 (Global Megatrends)





3-1

 3 20

(Unipolar World) (Multipolar World)

(Climate Change)




European Environment Agency
European Environment Agency (2011)
( ) 1 5 1) 2)
3) 4) 5)

0

1) (Social Megatrends)
3
(Population Trends):


(Urbanization) :

European Environment Agency (2011)

3-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Risk of New Pendemics) :

1.1 (Population trends):

-
-
.. 2100


- .. 2000-2050
50
-
- .. 2050



- .. 1950


-

1.2 (urbanization):


- .. 1950
30 .. 2050
70

3-3

 3 20

- 50
.. 2050

- (Emerging Economies)


-


(Outsourcing)
1.3 (Risk of New Pandemics):

-


- (


)


2) (Technological Megatrend)

- 50

3-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Bottom-up)

- (Digital and Technological Divide)

-

(Nanotechnologies,
Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, Information and Communication Technologies
NBIC Cluster)


-

-

NBIC

3) (Economic Megatrends)
3
(Rapid Economic Growth):

(Unipolar World)
(Multipolar World):

(Intensified Global Competition for
Resources):

3-5

 3 20

3.1 (Rapid Economic Growth)

- (IMF)

3.2 ..1980-2010
2.6 10
6.2

- (GDP) .. 2050

-


-





3.2 (Unipolar World)
(Multipolar World):

-
GDP GDP
GDP


(Foreign Direct Investment: FDI)
GDP FDI
3-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-
BRICS
( )

-



3.3 (Intensified Global Competition for
Resources):
BRICS



-
.. 2030

- 10 ( 8 OPEC)
80

- 14
10
- 50-100 ..
2050

-

-

3-7

 3 20

-



4) (Environmental Megatrends)
3
:


(Climate Change):


(Environmental Pollution Load):

4.1 (Decreasing Stocks of Natural Resources):
-

-
.. 2050
-

( UN (United Nations) FAO (Food
and Agriculture Organization)
70 .. 2050))
-
3-8

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-
(Unsustainable Management Practices)
(Deforestation)
(Improper Agricultural Management )
( )

4.2 (Climate Cthange):

- (Green House Gas: GHG)





- (CO2) 280 Parts Per
Million (ppm) 387 ppm .. 2008

0.7-0.8
.. 2009 1.8-4
.. 2100 GHG
-

.. 2030

- (Water Availability)

-
- (CO2)

- (Green House Gas: GHG)

4.3 (Environmental Pollution Load)
3-9

 3 20

4
- (Particulate Matter: PM): (Particulate Matter up to 10
Micrometres (PM10))

- (Reactive Nitrogen):

Reactive Nitrogen

- (Ground-level Ozone):



NOx CO
.. 2100
- (Chemicals):

OECD (
)


30 .. 2020 40 .. 2030
-
Reactive Nitrogen



-

3-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5) (Political Megatrends)

4
(G8) (G20)

(Non-state Actors) (Hybrid Forms)

-
1990s
World Trade Organization (1994)
Kyoto Protocol (1997) International Criminal Court (1998) UN Millennium
Declaration (2000)



-

(UN)
G8 G20
-


International Organization for Standard (ISO
Standard 14011)

-
NGOs (Co-regulation)
(Global Public-Private Partnership)
3-11

 3 20

-
GDP




-

(non-state actors)

-



3-1

3-1:

(Megatrends)

(Key Drivers)

(Uncertainty)

3-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Megatrends)

(Key Drivers)

(Uncertainty)

(




)

3-13

 3 20

(Megatrends)

(Key Drivers)

(Uncertainty)

NBIC

(Multipolar
World)

3-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Megatrends)

(Key Drivers)

(Uncertainty)

(Species)

3-15

 3 20

(Megatrends)

(Key Drivers)

(Uncertainty)

: European Environment Agency (2011)

European Environment Agency (EEA) (2007)

(Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability)

300


( 3-1 3-2)

3-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-1:

: European Environment Agency (EEA) (2007)

1.
-
50
-
-

3-17

 3 20

2.
-

3.
-
-
4.
-
-
-
-

-
5.
-
6.
-
-
- (
)

3-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-2:

1.

- ( 50
2050)
-
( )

-
(uniformity vs diversity)

-

-

-
-

-
-

3-19

 20
3

-
-

-

-
-

-
(Religious v.s NonReligious)

- (Values)

-

-
-

3-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Epidemics/Pandemics)

(depression)

3-21

 20
3

-
-
(curative) (preventative
care)
-

-
- (Impairment)

-
-
-

-
-

3-22

- (Time poor)

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2.

3
-
-

- (
)

-
- -

- ( )

GMOs

- (
)

-

(Cognitive Science)
(Converge)

-
(Second-generation
GMO)

- :

- =
- =

3-23

 20
3

-


-
(smart materials)

3-24

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- (Artificial
Intelligence)
(

)Artificial
Intelligence: AI(

-
-

3-25

 20
3

GMOs

-
(Precision Farming)

-
-

-

(fuel

conservation)
-

3-26

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- :

(Peak)

-
(Supply
Disruptions)

3.

-

-

-
(Back Carbon)

-
-
-

3-27

 20
3

-
(
)

-

( )

-
)

-
(
)

-
)

-
(end-of-pipe)

-
(
)

-
-
-

3-28

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-
(Afforestation)
-
Services)

(Ecosystem

- -

-
-
(Photovoltaic Energy

3-29

-
( GMOs)

 20
3

Generation)

- (Oil Peak)

- -

-


(Bioprospecting)

-
(Oil Sand)

3-30

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4.

- -

(Nationalist)
(Religious Reaction)
- -

()


-


-

-

(Market
Economy)

3-31

 20
3

- -

-
()

- (Fundamentalism)

-
()
-

3-32

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-
(Green Capitalism)

(Eco-entrepreneurs)

-


(Biodiversity
Banking)
-

-
-

-

3-33

 20
3

- peak oil
-

- :

-
:

()

5.
-

( )

-
(Democratization)

3-34

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-

(technocracy)
: - (Religious
fundamentalist)
Fundamentalism

(Democratic Institutions)

-
-

3-35

-
(Bioterrorism)

 20
3

-
(nationalisms)
(Fundamentalisms)
(Sources of Conflicts)

-
EU

- :

-
EU

3-36

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-

-

-


(Agricultural Protectionism)

-
EU

3-37

 3 20

3.2
3.2.1

(
)

2
3
20.6 .. 1950 65.9-69.1 .. 2553 (.. 2010)2

World
Population Prospects : The 2010 Revision (United Nation, 2011)
1F

(2553) 65.9 World Population Prospects : The 2010

Revision (United Nation, 2011) 69.1

3-38

 (Final Report)
( 1)

73.4 .. 2035
58.2 21 (.. 2100)
20
4 ( World Population Prospects : The 2010
Revision) (United Nation, 2011)
3-2: ( : )

: United Nation (2011)

(Consumption
Pattern)
(0-14 )
.. 1980 18.7
.. 2030 9-10
(15-59 ) .. 2015 46.7
( 60 ) .. 2010-2040
23.1 .. 2060

3-39

 3 20

3-3: ( : )

: United Nation (2011)

World Urbanization Prospects (2011)

.. 2045


20

3-40

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-4:

: United Nation (2011)

22.1 .. 2531 5.1 ..
2553
(2010) ..
2020 40
(Human Development

3-41

 3 20

Indicator) 3 UNDP 0.486 .. 1980 0.682

.. 2011 30
3-5:
( .. 1980 100)

: World Development Indicators Database 4

3F

(Human Development Index: HDI)

http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators

3-42

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-6: .. 2531 - 2553

: (2554)
:

3-7:

: (SCB EIC) (2010)

: 15,000 15,000 35,000
35,000 2007

3-43

 3 20

3-8:
(Human Development Indicator) 1980-2011

: UNDP (2011)

(Gini Coefficient) 5

( 0.51)

(Gini coefficient)
0 1

3-44

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-9:

: UNDP (2009)

(Green Economy) (Green Growth)
Decoupling
3-10
Decoupling 2
Resource decoupling
Impact decoupling

3-45

 3 20

3-10:

: UNEP (2011)

Decoupling

( 3
..1980 100)

Resource Decoupling Impact Decoupling

Decoupling

30



.. 1994 Decoupling

3-46

 (Final Report)
( 1)

Decoupling 4
Decoupling
3-11: CO2

: World Development Indicators 6, SIGA 1980

3-12: CO2

: World Development Indicators 7, SIGA 1980

World Development Indicators Database, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators

World Development Indicators Database, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators

3-47

 3 20

3-13: CO2

: World Development Indicators, SIGA 1980

3-48

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3.2.2
20 : 1/2555
(.)
1/2555
11 .. 2555


98 (
)

20


3-14:
20

: 1/2555
3 1, 2, 3
:
3, 2, 1

3-49

 3 20

20

54.3 (
38.3) ( 5.3)
( 2.1)

29.8
(
25.5) ( 21.3) (
16) (Unipolar) (Multipolar
world) ( 6.4) 1.1

(MEAs)

61.7 (14.9)
(11.7) (7.4)
( 2.2)

26.6
( 24.5) ( 23.4)
( 16) ( 8.5) 1.1

20 3-15

3-50

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-15
20

: 1/2555

76.6 (Coexist
with Nature) 2 ( 19.1)
(Master Nature) 2.1

72.3
( 11.7)
( 7.4)

(
) 45.1 ( 23.1)

( 15.4)

3-51

 3 20

78
14.3)
3-16:

: 1/2555

3-52

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3.2.3 1 2 (Delphi Method)

1 3.2.2

20
(Delphi Method)
( 1
2) 1 28 25 .. 2555
2 24 31 .. 2555
400 114 93
2 3-3
3-3:

17

14.9

13

14

18

15.8

14

15.1

19

16.7

14

15.1

14

12.3

10

10.9

46

40.4

42

45.7

114

100.0

93

100.0

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

(Driver)

20
30
34
27 4
3-53

 3 20

20
4
1.
2.
3.
4.
4
( 6 )


4

10


6


GPS, GPRS,


5 6
(Unipolar World) (Multipolar World)






5

3-54

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3

3-4:
20
2

4



*

10

10

3-55

 3 20

GPS, GPRS

5
(Unipolar World)
(Multipolar World)

3-56

 (Final Report)
( 1)

34

31

27

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) ( 1 2) (2555)

:
1. * 1
2. 2
20

(Uncertainty)
20
- 38
53
32 6
-
20
1.


2.

3-57

 3 20

3.

4.
5.
6.

10 6

8

7




5

4
, GMO /



8 14
3



5



3-58

 (Final Report)
( 1)

13
3

3-5:
20
( 2)

10

10

3-59

 3 20

4
,
GMO
/

14

3-60

 (Final Report)
( 1)

13

13

10

53

44

32

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) ( 1 2) (2555)

: * 1
2


20

3.3
3-61

 3 20

(
)
20

1 2
20

20


3-62

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3-63

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4

20
2




11 (.. 2555-2559)
.. 2540-2559 ..
2553 .. 2555-2559

4.1
1. (European Union)


.. 2050 (Roadmap for
moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050) 2
16
40
.. 2020 (Europe 2020 Strategy)
20 .. 1990 ..
2020 20 3
20
.. 2050
30 80-95% ..
2050
( 4-1)

4-1

 4 20

4-1: .. 2050
1990

2005 (%)

2030 (%)

2050 (%)

-7

-40 -44

-79 -82

-7

-54 -68

-93 -99

-20

-34 -40

-83 -87

+30

+20 -9

-54 -67

-12

-37 -53

-88 -91

( CO2)

-20

-36 -37

-42 -49

( CO2)

-30

-72 -73

-70 -78

: European Commision (2011)

.. 2050
.. 2020 (Europe 2020 Strategy)

(Smart, Sustainable and
Inclusive Growth)




(Intelligent Heating and Cooling
System)



270
1.5 4
1.5 .. 2020
4-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2. (United Kingdom)

.. 2012
The Natural Choice: Securing the Value of Nature
20

50

4
1) (Local Action)

2) (Green Economy)



3)
4)

1. (Protecting and Improving

our Natural Environment)

30 (Natural Service)
(Climate
Change)


4-3

 4 20

(Local Nature
Partnerships) (Nature Improvement Areas)

(biodiversity offsets)
2. (Growing a Green Economy)



(Bad Choices)




(Natural Capital)

(GDP)
(National
Account)
(Natural
Capital Committee)


(Ecosystem Markets Task Force)


3. (Reconnecting People and Nature)


( 4-1)

4-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(New Local Green Areas)

(Green
Infrastructure Partnership)

4. (International and EU Leadership)

(EU)


(Nagoya Protocol)
(Platform) (Intergovernmental Platform)

(EU Roadmap)

4-5

 4 20

4-1:

: HM Government (2011)

4-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3.


(National Strategy for Sustainable Development: NSSD)
.. 2020
4

21

35

1


1A 1B


( ..1990) ( ..1994)
.. 2020 (Integrated Energy and
Climate Programe: IECP, .. 2007/2008) .. 2007

.. 2020
30 10


40 .. 2020 ( 4-2)

4-7

 4 20

4-2:

2020

2009/2010

2 1990

40.5%

2 1994

39.6%

40% 1990-1995

22.4%

10% ( 1.3%)

8.9%

30% ( 3.1%)

16.1%

30
/

95 /

2015

69%

59

(nitrogen surplus) 80
2010

20%

103
5.4%

SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3

70% 2010 (
30 100)

: EEA (2011)

4-8

55.3 % (
44.7 100)

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2,000 (The 2000 Watt/Capital

Society) 2,000


2,000 65 (GJ per Capita)


70 2,000 65

2,000







4
30
3
1. 5

(Cradle to Cradle Approach)

(Resource University)
2.


3.

UNEP (2011)



4-9

 4 20

(Win-win-win Situation)
4.




(Toward a Sound
Material Cycle Society) Junkan-gata-shakai (Sound
Material Cycle Society) .. 1991
(Japan Environment Agency)
3R (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle)

3R 2 (1)

(2)

4-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4-2: (Scheme of a Sound Material Cycle Society)

: Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan, 2009 UNEP (2011)

(Flows of Materials) (Material Flow Accounts, MFA)


(Material Flow Indicators)
(Resource Productivity) =
(GDP / Direct Material Input) 420,000
( 60 .. 2000)
(Cyclical Use Rate) =
(Cyclical Use Amount / (Natural
Resource Input + Cyclical Use Amount) 14-15 (
40-50 .. 2000)
4-11

 4 20

(Final Disposal Amount
= Sum of General Waste and Industrial Waste) 23 (
60 .. 2000)
.. 2000
1 (1st Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material Cycle Society)
. 2003 .. 2008




4-3:

: Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan, 2009 UNEP (2011)

Decoupling


4-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1.

(binding targets)

2. (Actions by Local Authorities)

(Management of Municipal
Solid Waste: MSW)

3. (Top Runner Programme)

(Minimum
Efficiency Performance Standard (MEPS))

(Principle) (Image)
(Strategy)
1)
3

(Carbon Neutral Society)





(Mottainai Spirit)

4-13

 4 20

2)
6














Eco-point





3 1
2 3
3 ( )

4-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3)

(Desirables action for Citizens)
(Ecoparticipation, Eco-thinking Eco-sharing)
(Desirables Action for Corporations)




(Incentives)
(Soft Infrastructure)

(Hard Infrastructure)
(Natural Capitals)
4)

Japan Model

(Global-level Incentives)
(Carbon Pricing System)






(Japans Strategy for a Sustainable Society)
3



3 (Low Carbon Society)
(Sound Material Cycle Society) (Society in Harmony with
4-15

 4 20

Nature)
(Becoming a Leading
Environmental Nation for a Better World) 8
1.
2.

3.
3Rs
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
5.

3

(1)

(Blueprint for a
Secure Energy Future) .. 2011

1 .. 2015

21

3 (1)

(2)
(3)

4-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(2)



(Clean
Energy Investments and Standards)
29 (Monitoring Emissions)
(Climate Change Adaptation)


(Climate Change Science and Education)
(3)







(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
EPA) 5 .. 2011-2015 (EPA
Strategic Plan) 5 (1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
6.

(Green Growth) (Low Carbon
Society) .. 1900-2000 (100 ) 7
22 .. 2005
594 16
99 .. 1990- 2005
4-17

 4 20

OECD
15

(Advanced
Developing Countries)
Post-2012 Regime
.. 2020
(Business As Usual) 813

30

.. 2005

(Green Growth)

.. 2009 Framework Law on Green Growth


(National Strategy for Green Growth) .. 2009
.. 2050 5 (Five-Year Plan for Green Growth)

.. 2009- 2013

7 .. 2020 5
.. 2050 3 10 5 (.. 2009
2013) 4-3

4-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4-3:

1.

1.

2.

4.

2.
3.

5.
(Green Industries)
6.
7. (Green Economy)

3.

8.
9.
10.

: National Strategy for Green Growth, Republic of Korea Randall S. Jones and Byungseu Yoo (2011)

Green Growth
(Political Commitment)


2.0 GDP
Green Growth G20


G20 ( 79
)


4-19

 4 20

(Green Jobs)

7.


(National Framework for Sustainable Development:
NFSD) .. 2008
5

.. 2010
(National Framework for Sustainable
Development: NFSD) .. 2008

(National Strategy for Sustainable Development)

.. 2006
(Framework for
Considering Market-based Instruments to Support Environmental Fiscal Reform in South Africa)

(Command and
Control)








(low-carbon infrastructures)


4-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- 20-30
- 30
-
-


- (Ground-water Exploitation)

10
- 40
-
-


-

-
-



-

- 15-20 35-40

- (Green House Regulation)
(Local Economic Development: LED)
-

4-21

 4 20

(Millenium Development Goals: MDGs)

8.

(Inter-Ministerial
Committee on Sustainable Development: IMCSD) .. 2008

5


A Lively and Liveable Singapore: Strategies for Sustainable Growth

(The
Most Liveable Cities in Asia) (Clean) (Green)
(Safe) (Efficient)
(Singapore Way)

(Sustainable Development)

(Pragmatic and Cost Effective
Manner)
4-22

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4
1. (Boosting for Resource Efficiency)

(Resource
Decoupling)
35 .. 2030 ( .. 2005)
(Recycling Rate) 70 .. 2030

140 .. 2030
-


-

-

-



- (Resource-efficient Buildings)
80 Green Mark Certificate ..
2030 (Public Housing)
-
70:30
4-23

 4 20

2.

(Morning Peak Hours) .. 2020

140 .. 2030 ( 156
.. 2008)


Singapore
Packaging Agreement (Co-funding)




(Marina Bay) Jurong Lake District

(Enhancing own Urban Environment)

(Top City)





-

-



-
(Social Cost)

4-24

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-


-

-

-

- (Blue Space)

- (Urban Biodiversity)

3. (Building Capabilities)

-


- Centre
for Livable Cities

4. (Fostering Community Action)

4-25

 4 20

1.


2.


3.

9.
.. 2003
(Ecological Civilization)
5 11 (11th Five-Year Plan for
Economic and Social Development (.. 2006-2010))
22 8 5

(GDP energy intensity) 20 10 ..
2010 ( .. 2005) (State Council of China)
(Leading Group on Energy
Conservation and Pollution Reduction)

.. 2006
(Mandatory Energy Saving and Pollution Reduction Programe)

(Primary Resource) (Products)
(Post-consumption Waste)
(Circular Economy Policies)
(Law on Circular Economy Promotion)
(Law on Cleaner Production Promotion)
4-26

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4
1.

2. 1.3
1.5-1.6 .. 2030 1.4
.. 2050
3.
4. 3



(Circular Economy) 3Rs (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle)
5
11 (11th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (..2006-2010))
.. 2006 27 29
89 (township) 4 44
.. 2008
(Circular Economy Promotion Law)
.. 2009

- (Law on Cleaner Production Promotion)
-

- (assessment standards) (ecoindustrial parks)
- (green procurement)

4-27

 4 20

1.

2.
(Internalizing the External Diseconomy)


3. (Green Trade Policy)

11
4. (US
Environmental Protection Agency) 1990s

(Jiangsu) (Zhejiang)
5.

6. (Eco-Compensation)
(Payments for Ecological Services)
2
(1) (Mining)
(2)
(Damager Pays Principle)
7.

8. (Green Finance) (Green Credit)
(Environmental Liability Insurance)

11 3

4-28

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- (Environmental Impact Assessment: EIA)
-
-

-
-
12 (.. 2011-2015)
.. 2011-2015

3.4
5 1.5 8

1.

2.
3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.



4-29

 4 20

GDP GDP
.. 2013
..2015
15
.. 2020 ( 8.3 .. 2009)


11 1 .. 2015
50
12



(Strategic Emerging Industries) 7


10.


(National
Strategic Plan on Climate Change )

1
(Mekong Deltas area) 40
(Red River Deltas area) 11 3
20
4-30

 (Final Report)
( 1)

10-20 1
10

6
(1)
(2)
(3) . 2100 (4) .. 2050 (5) (6)
4
1.






2.
3.



4.


..2015

.. 2020
45

4-31

 4 20

4-4:

.. 2050 (

80 .. 2050
95 ..
1990)

50

2,000

.. 2020

..

2020

2,000

( 1 3

)
4-32

 (Final Report)
( 1)

21

5

EPA

30 ..

(Green
2005

Growth)




7
.. 2020
5
4-33

 4 20

(A Lively and
Liveable
Singapore:
Strategies for
Sustainable
Growth)

5
11 (.. 2006 2010)

..
2050


206


30

30

40

35 .. 2030



(Circular

Economy Policies)

20

10

4-34

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5
12 (.. 20112015)

15

..
2020

Vision 2100
Goal 2050
(
)

/
(Strategic Emerging Industries)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

4.2
1. .. 2570

20






4-35

 4 20

.. 2570

.. 2570 (1)

/ (2)
(3)
(Caring Society)

(4)
(5)
25 .. 2570 ( .. 2550
50 ) (6)

6

4-36

 (Final Report)
( 1)

/
/



2. 11
(.. 2555 2559)
11

11
6
1)
2)

3)

4)


5)

6)

4-5

4-37

 4 20

4-5:

11 (..2555-2559)

1.

2.

4-38

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3.



4.

5.

6.

4-39

 4 20

7.

8.

4-40

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

3. .. 2540 2559
.. 2540 - 2559

1.


2.



3.

6 (1) (2)
(3) (4) (5)
(5)
4-6
4-6:
.. 2540 2559

1.

4-41

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

: (2540)

4-42

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

(2553)
.. 2540-2559

- 2


-


-


-

-
50
40
-

GDP (Energy Elasticity)
(2553)

1.

4-43

2.

3.
(Green Economy)
11 (.. 2555-2559) 1
4.




(Strategic Environmental Assessment: SEA)


5.

.. 2540-2559
11 (.. 2555-2559)

.. 2540-2559 11

4-44

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

4. .. 2555 - 2559

.. 25552559
5


.. 25552559
6
1)
(Sustainable Development)

2) (Ecosystem Approach)

(Holistic)

3) (Precautionary Principle)



4) (Polluters Pay Principle: PPP)
(Beneficiaries Pay Principle: BPP)




4-45

5) - (Public-Private Partnership)



6) (Good Governance)



- - (Area-Function-Participation: AFP)

(Accountability)

4-46

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

4-7:
.. 2555 - 2559
:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

(

)

(
)
( )

4-47

6.

: (2555a)

4-48

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

5. .. 2555-2593
.. 2555-2593

1. (Common but Differentiated
Responsibility and Capacity) UNFCCC
2.

3. (Public-sector Stewardship)
(Public-Private Partnership PPP)
4. (Phase)
3-4

5.

5
1.
2.
3.
4.

5.

3 3
1.
4-49

2.

3.



GDP

(Peak) .. 2050

(Sustainable Low Carbon Economy)
6.
11 (.. 2555-2559)

.. 2540-2559
.. 2555-2559





4-8

4-50

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

4-8:

.. 2551-2555

1 1
(..2555 2559)

.. 2547-2556

.. 2548 2557
..

2555 2559

4-51

20 ()

15

(.. 2553-2573)
20 (.. 2554 - 2573)

..2548-2559

2551-2554

.. 2551-2555
()
.. 2555 - 2593

1 (.. 2555-2564)

11

..
2555-2574
4-52

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

.. 2555-2564

.. 2556-2560

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

4-53

7.

7.1 .. 2555-2567
.. 2555-2567

3
20 1

2


3




3
1.

(

)
2.


(SME)



(AEC)
3.

4-54

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

20 10 5

4-55

/

/
/

/

4



(Green Industry) 10
4-56

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

(Green Industry Zone)

7.2 .. 2555-2564
.. 2555-2564

4 (Wellbeing)


(High Performance Country)
5
1. (Smart Enterprise)
Trading Nation
2. (ASEAN One)
3. (Value Creation Economy)
4. (Pro Competitive
Environment)
5. (New Trade Infrastructure)



3 (Value Creation
Economy)
(Middle Income Trap)

(Value Creation)
(Going Green)

(Green Economy)
Green




4-57

(Green Tourism) (Near Zero Waste)

(Low Carbon Emission)

7.3 11 (..
2555-2559)

3
1
2

3


3

4-58

 (Interim Report)
( 1)

7.4 1 (.. 25552564)

1 (.. 2555-25645)

5
1.

2.

3.


4.
5.


3
4
1.

2.

3.

4-59

4.

/




(Implementation)

4-60

 (Final Report)
( 1)

20
5.1 (Scenario Method)


Hugh Cortney (2003) 4 ( 5-1)
(Clear Enough Future)
(Alternate Future)
(Range of Future)
(True Ambiguity)
4


( )

5-1

 5 20

5-1:

(Clear Enough Future)

(Alternate Future)

(Range of Future)

(True Ambiguity)

: Hugh Courtney (2003)

(Predict)
(Uncertainties) (Surprises)

5-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5-2:

: Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold (2003)

5.1.1

(Trends)
(forecast)

(Scenario Planning)



(Possible) (Relevant)

(Driver Trends) (Uncertainties) (Surprises)

(Scenario Planning)

5-3

 5 20

(What Could Be)

5-3
5-3:

5-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Cross-impact
and systems analysis)

: Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold (2003)

5.1.2 (Scenario Planning)
4
1.


3
(Risk Conscious)



(New Thinking/paradigm Shift)

(Policy/Concept Development)

5-5

 5 20

2.



(Identify the System to be Analyzed)





(Define Focal Questions)

(Time Horizon)
2

30



20-100

(define past and present)






3. (Scenario Building)
1) (Drivers) (Trends)
5-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Causal-Loop
Diagram)
(Uncertainties)
3-4

3

- 2 (Two Axes Method)

5-1

5-7

 5 20

5-1 International Futures Project Scenarios

: Scenario Planning, UK Government Office for Science (2009)

- (Branch Analysis Method)

(Range of Potential Futures)
5-2
5-2 2555 (2012)

: Scenario Planning, UK Government Office for Science (2009)

: ,

5-8

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- (Cone of Plausibility Method)

3-7
( 5-3)
5-3 2563 (2020)

: UK Government Office for Science (2009)

2) (create vision)



4.

Bishop, P.et al. (2007)

6 5-4

(Framing)
(Scanning)
(Forecasting)
(Visioning)
5-9

 5 20

(Planning)
(Acting)
5-4 (Scenario Development)

(Drivers)
(Uncertainties)

(
)

(Visioning)

()

(
)

(Framing)

(Scanning)

(Forecasting)

(Planning)

(Acting)
: Bishop, P. et al. (2007)

(Mont
Fleur Scenario)
.. 2534- 2535 (.. 1991- 1992 )
10
22

5-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4
1
2
3
4

1. ( 5-4)


4
1)
5
2)


3)
4)

1
.. 2568 (.. 2025) (National Intelligence Council, 2008)
2
-

21
5-11

 5 20

- .. 2568 (.. 2025)

2


-
(Constrained Growth vs Unconstrained Growth)
-

(Common Cause vs Cross Purposes)

5-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5-4:
Common Cause

3. Constant Renewal

Constrained Growth

Unconstrained Growth

2. Fragmented World

1. Borrowed Time

Cross Purposes

: National Intelligence Council (2008)

2
.. 2568 (.. 2025) 3

1 (Borrowed Time)
(Business
as Usual)




( )

5-13

 5 20

2 (Fragmented World)

3 (Constant Renewal)

5-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3 5-5

2556-2564 (2013-2021)

2552-2555 (2009-2012)

5-5: ..2568 (..2025)

(Borrowed Time)

(Fragmented World)

(Constant Renewal)

(
)

(BRICS)

5-15

2565-2568 (2022-2025)

5 20

(Borrowed Time)

(Fragmented World)

(Constant Renewal)

: National Intelligence Council (2008)

5-6

5-6:

(Borrowed Time)

(Fragmented World)

(Constant Renewal)

- - -

-
-
-

(Bretton Woods Institutions)

5-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Borrowed Time)

(Fragmented World)

(Constant Renewal)

-
-
-
(BRICS)

-

-

-
-

-

(Friendly

5-17

70
-

 5 20

(Borrowed Time)

(Fragmented World)

(Constant Renewal)

States)
-

-
-

- -

: National Intelligence Council (2008)

5-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2. (Shell Scenario)
(Shell International Limited)
.. 2568 (.. 2025)
30







2 11 2544
(Enron)





2548 (2005)

3
-
-
-
3
3 ( 5-5)

5-19

 5 20

5-5:

: Shell International Limited (2005)

1
(Low Trust Globalization)

5-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2 (Open Doors)

3 (Flags)









(Zero-sum Game)
3. (Mont Fleur Scenarios)
.. 2534-2535 (..1991-1992)
(Mont Fleur Scenarios) .. 2545
(.. 2002) 10

5-21

 5 20

10


1960-1970

(Failed State) 5-7
5-7: 2534 (1991)

-
-

-

: Global Business Network (2003)

22

5-6

10-15

5-22

 (Final Report)
( 1)

.. 2545 (.. 2002) 4

1 :


2 :



3 :



4 :

5-23

 5 20

5-6: 10 .. 2544 (..1991)

: Global Business Network (2003)

( : Nelson Mandela)

5-24

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4. World Economic Forum (China Scenarios)

(World Economic Forum) .. 2549
(.. 2006) (World Economic Forum, 2006.)
20
.. 2549-2568 (..2006-2025) 2
-
-
2

-
-
-


2
4 3
( 5-7)
1 (Regional Ties)





2 (Unfulfilled Promise)




5-25

 5 20

3 (New Silk Road)

-

5-26

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5-7: 2568 (2025)

: World Economic Forum (2006)

5-8
5-8:

(Regional Ties)

(Unfulfilled Promise)

(New Silk Road)

5-27

 5 20

(Regional Ties)

(Unfulfilled Promise)

(New Silk Road)

-
-

-

- -

-
- -

: World Economic Forum (2006)

5-28

-
2558
(2015)

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-

-

-

-

-

5.



( . 2548.)

( , 2546)
( ,,
2551.)

.. 2548 (..2005)

5-9

5-29

 5 20

5-9: .. 2568 (.. 2025)

- 2540

-
-
-
-
: (2546)

:



:

:



5-30

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3



.. 2552 2553
( , 2552.)
4
.. 2562 (, 2552.) 10
..2562 3 5-8
5-8: .. 2562

: (2552)

5-31

 5 20

-


-

-

2




(Carbon Credit)


2

-

-
5-32

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-

3

International Community
School/College 3


(BRICS)




-

-

-

-


.. 2562 3
3

5-33

 5 20

5-34

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5.2 (Environmental Scenarios)

5.2.1

(Integrative Scenarios)
1970 ( Meadows et al.
(1982), Hughes (1985) Brecke (1990, 1994))

(Quantitative Scenarios) (Storylines)
5-10
5-10:

(Quantitative Model)

World2, World3 (Meadows et al., 1972; Meadows et al., 1991; Meadows et

al., 2004)
Latin American World Model Bariloche Group (Bruckmann, 1974; Herrera
et al., 1976)
Soviet Global Model (SIM/GDP) (Brecke, 1995)
Future of Global Interdependence (FUGI) (Keya et al., 1983)
Generating Long-term Options By Using Simulation (GLOBUS) Bremer,
1987)
Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARUM) (Systems Analysis
Research Unit, 1977)
World Input-Output Model (Leontief et al., 1977)
World Integrated Model (Mesarovic and Pestel, 1974; Hughes, 1980)
The Future of the the Environment ( WIOM Model) (Duchin and
Lange, 1994)
International Futures ( WIM Model) (Hughes and Hillebrand,
2006)
Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental Target (TARGETS
Model) (Rotmans and de Vries, 1997)
Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE 2) (Alcamo et
al., 1998; Bouwman et al., 2006)
5-35

 5 20

Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) (Kainuma et al., 2003)

(Global Scenarios report)

(Regional Scenarios
report)

Scenarios of the Global Scenario Group (Gallopin et al., 1997, Hammond,

1998; Raskin et al., 1998, Raskin et al., 2002)
United Nations Envrionment Programme GEO3, GEO4, GEO5
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment global Scenarios
US National Intelligence Council Scenarios (US NIC, 2004)
Scenarios of the Chatham House Forum (Royal Institute of International
Affairs, 1998)
Scenarios of the Millennium Project (Glenn and Gordon, 1998)
Global Scenarios to 2050 (Van der Veer, 2005)
Earth at a Crossroads (Bossel, 1998)
Surprising Futures (Svedin and Aniansson, 1987)
Scenarios for Socioeconomic Development (Toth et al., 1989)
Exploring Sustainable Development (WBCD, 1997)
Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable) Futures (Costanza, 2000)
Global Scenarios for the Millennium (Tobbs, 1998)
Africa 2025: What Possible Futures for Sub-Saharan Africa (Sall, 2003)
Africa Environmental Outlook (1 and 2) (UNEP and African Ministerial
Conference on Environment, 2002, 2006)
OECD Environmental Outlook 2030
OECD Environmental Outlook 2050
VISIONS (Europe Scenarios) (Rotmans et al., 2000)
Europe 2010 (Betrand et al., 1999)
Four Futures for Europe (de Mooji and Tang, 2004)
GEO Latin America and the Caribbean 2003 (UNEP, 2004)

: Rothman (2008).

( )
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
5-36

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5-11
5-11

Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030

(
,
11, Sasin Institute for Global Affair (SIGA))
2563 (
.)

Australia: Resource Futures Program, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystem (Foran and

Poldy, 2002)
Future Makers, Future Takers: Life in Australia 2050 (Cocks, 1999)

Green India 2047, TERI (Pachauri and Sridharan, 1998; Pachauri and Batra, 2001)

UK Foresight Environmental Future (UK DTI, 1991; UK DTI 2002)

Russia 2010 (Yergin and Gustafson, 1995)

Chinas Futures (Ogilvy and Schwartz, 2000)

The Forecast of Chinas Development Situation (Niu, 1997)

Estonia 2010 (Estonia Institute for Futures Studies, 1997)

Kenya at the Crossroad (Institute for Economic Affairs-Kenya and Society for
International Development, 2000)

GEO Mexico (PNUMA et al., 2004)

5-37

 5 20

South African Environments into the 21st Century (Huntley et al., 1989)

Tutafika: Imagining our Future (www.tutafika.org)

The Uganda Scenarios Project (www.scenarios.wa/uganda)

: Rothman (2008)

1. Global Scenario Group 3
(Conventional World) (Barbarization)
(Great Transitions) 5-12
5-12: Global Scenario Group

(Worldview)

(Antecedents)

(Philosophy)

(Motto)

1. Conventional World
Market Forces

Adam Smith

(Dont Worry, Be Happy)

Policy Reform

John Maynard Keynes,

Brundtland

2. Barbarization
Breakdown

Thomas Malthus

5-38

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Worldview)

(Antecedents)

(Philosophy)

(Motto)

Fortress World

Thomas Hobbes

William Morris,

Social Utopians,

(Small is Beautiful)

E.F. Schumacher,

3. Great Transitions
Eco-Communalism

Gandhi
New Sustainability paradigm

John Stuart Mill,

4. Muddling Through

,


(Que Sera, Sera)

: Raskin et al. (2002) Rothman (2008)

2. IPCC 4
(Pessimistic Scenario) (Current Trends
Scenarios) (High-tech Optimist
Scenarios)
(Sustainable Development Scenarios)
5-13
5-13 IPCC

1. Pessimistic Scenarios

Breakdown:

Fractured World:

Chaos:

5-39

 5 20

2. Current Trends
Scenario

3. High-tech Optimist
Scenarios

4. Sustainable
Development Scenarios

Conservative:

Conventional:

12

High growth:

14

Asia Shift:

Economy Paramount:

Cybertopia:

16

Technotopia:

Our Common Future:

21

Low Consumption:

16

: Rothman (2008)

3. Van Asselt et al. (1998) 4

(Money Maker) (Think Green)
(Wait and See) (Doom Monger)
5-9
5-9 Van Asselt et al. (1998)

: Rothman (2008)

5-40

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4. Tibbs (1999) 7

(Unsustainability)
2 Silicon Switzerland
Slaveship Earth

Inevitable Evolution 4 Policy Utopia
( ), Gaia Strikes Back (
), The Far Side (
) Crash (
)
5-10 Tibbs (1999)

: Rothman (2008)

5. Kok, Kasper et al., (2011)

8 2
(Global vs Regional) / / (Selfinterest/Reactive vs Solidarity/Pro-active) 4
5-11
- ( )
Markets First, Global Orchestration, Big is Beautiful, Economy First,
5-41

 5 20

Great Escape Global Economy

- (
) Security First, Order from Strength, Scramble, Big is Beautiful?,
Fortress Europe, Clustered Networks Transatiantic Market

- ()
Sustainability First, Techno Garden, Knowledge is King, Policy Rules, Big Crisis
Strong Europe

(Techno Garden, Knowledge is King)
(Sustainablility First, Policy Rule)
(Big Crisis, Sustainable First)
- ( )
Adaping Mosaic, Blueprints, Sustainability Eventually, Lettuce Surprise &
Evolved Society Regional Communities

5-42

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5-11 Kok et al. (2011)

: Kok, Kaper et al., (2011)

(Storyline)



5-14

5-43

 5 20

5-14
(Story and Simulation)

1. World Water Vision

Scenarios: The World
Water Situation in 2025

(Storyline )


1

2025 3
1. Business-as-Usual (BAU):

2025

2. Technology, Economics, and Private Sector (TEC):
(optimistic)

3. Values and Life Styles (VAL):



2 (2nd
generation of World Water Scenarios)

2. SRES Scenarios of the

IPCC: Global Greenhouse
Gas Emissions up to 2100

(Story and Simulation)

2100 4
1. A1:


A1 3
5-44

 (Final Report)
( 1)

A1FI A1T
A1B
2. A2: (Heterogeneous World)




3. B1: A1


4. B2:

A2
B1 A1

3. Scenarios of the
Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment: The State of
World Ecosystems up to
2050

(Story and Simulation)

2050 4
1. Global Orchestration:



2. Order from Strength:

3. Adapting Mosaic:


4. Techno Garden:

4. GEO-4 Scenarios: the

Global Environment up to

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Global Environment Outlook
5-45

 5 20

2050

2050 4
1. Market First:


2. Policy First:

3. Security First:

4. Sustainability First:



GEO-5 Rio+20
2012

: Alcamo (2008)

5-46

 (Final Report)
( 1)

6

20
6.1
20
(.) Sasin
Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
2/2555

(Scenario Building
Workshop)




77 28 .. 2555


2
(Scenarios Building) 3 (
) (Stakeholders)



(Trends)
(Uncertainties)



6-1

 6 20

(Forecasting)

3 (1)
(Horizon Scanning)
(Weak Signals/ Early Warning) (2)
(Backcasting Technique) (Scenario Logic)
(3) (Scenario Building)

(Future Vision) (Long-term Policy)
6-1:
1

(Horizon scanning)

-
(Scenario logic)
- 3
(Juggling forces)

(Back casting)

( 2575, 2565, 2560)

(Scenario Building)

(Presentation)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

1) (Horizon scanning)
(Horizon Scanning)


(Mainstream Ideology)
(Planning)
(Uncertainty)

(Threat)
6-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Risk) (New Opportunities)

3
- (Emerging Issues):


(Social Media)

- (Trend):


- (Wild Card):
(Black Swan)
9/11
1
6
1. (Social) 2. (Technology) 3. (Economy) 4.
(Environment) 5. (Politics) 6. (Energy) STEEP+

(Driving Force) 3
(Juggling Force) Scenario Logic STEEP+ 2
(2X3X6 = 36 ) 3
(Horizon Scanning)
(Impact)
(Cross-cutting Influence) 3 (Juggling
Forces)
(Go Green)
2.0 (Sustainable
Development 2.0)





6-3

 6 20

(
1.0
20

2.0
)
(Decentralization)




(Subsidiarity)
(Self Government)


(Borderless)

6-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

6-2: (Driving Force) 3

(Go Green)

(Decentralization)

(Borderless)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) 2/2555

28 .. 2555

6-5

 6 20

6-3: (Scenario Logic)

Social

Economy

Politics

Environment

Technology

Energy

Awareness

Social Structure

Cultural Convergence

Lifestyle

Individual value

Social Participation

Growth centric

Regional cooperation
Gain

Non-Tariff Barriers

Green centric

National loss

Economic Integration

Hidden Agenda

Interest groups

Natural resource conflicts

Green Politics
centric

Mass
National
Mobilization
loss

Social Collaboration

Environment migration
conflict

Resource Management
(Global)

Global collaboration

Solidarity

Authority (Local)

Transfer of pollution

Holistic

Green Technology

Unintended consequence

Unintended
consequence

Exploitative
Technology

Positive and Negative

effects of technology

Transformation

Alternative Energy

Alternative Energy

Decoupling

Energy Scarcity

Energy security

: 2/2555
28 .. 2555

2)
(Backcasting)
(Backcasting)
(Scenario Logic)

STEEP+ Scenario Logic 6 2
12 Card Technique (Post-it Note)
6-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Scenario Logic)
6
- 28 2575 (20 )
- 28 2565 (10 )
- 28 2560 (5 )
6-4:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) 2/2555

28 ..2555

3

(Weak Signal) (Emerging Issue)
(Trend)
(3) (Scenario Building)

(Future Vision)
(Long-term Policy)

6-7

 6 20

6.2 (Scenario) 20

3
6.2.1 (From Grave to Green)

(Go Green)

(Decentralization)

(Borderless)

(Go
Green)
(Decentralization)


20

(Go Green)
(Green Party)



6-8

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1









0

10



(Public Private Partnership)


(Green Party)

1

( )

6-9

 6 20

New Technology Platform

20







Go Green
Green NGOs





(Real Sector)



(Mobile Home)


6-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-- (Environmental Governance and Public-Private-People Sectors)


-

-

-

-




-

-

-

-

6-11

 6 20

-

-

-
-

6-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

6.2.2 (Molted Crab)

(Go Green)

(Decentralization)

(Borderless)

(Go
Green) (Borderless)
(Global Citizen)

20


Global Zoning

5-10

(New Cold
War)

6-13

 6 20

10

(Productivity)

2 ( ) 5
(Disaster Crisis)

(New Cold War)
20 (
)
(Global Citizenship) Borderless

(Virtual Community)
( )


Global zoning (Global Punishment)

6-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

- (Mindset)

6-15

 6 20

6.2.3 (Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green)

(Decentralization)

(Borderless)

(Go Green) (Decentralization)

20

5


6-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Social Network)

Green


Social Media

, ,



Environment MOU


Environment MOU

ASEAN

Gen Y

10
(ASEAN Carbon Market)

(
) MOU



6-17

 6 20

(Energy grid)

24

(Warning System)

( / / / )

Green Industry /
Green Energy

3
3





1 1 (One Tumbon One Energy)

78
/


( /
)




20

(Center of Excellence)


6-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

A A
B
( / )
, , ,


-





/
/
(Social Network)

(South to South Technology Transfer)

/ ( )
(
)
/ AEC, FTA






/



6-19

 6 20

(Go Green, Do
Together)

-

-

- :

/


3 3

- :



- :

( )

6-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

-
(ASEAN)
,
( )

20

6



(
)
5.

6.

1.
2.
3.
4.

6-21

 6 20

6-1:

(From Grave to Green)

(Molted Crab)

(Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green Decentralization )

(Go Green Borderless)

(Decentralization Borderless)

(
,
,
,

6-22

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(From Grave to Green)

(Molted Crab)

(Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green Decentralization )

(Go Green Borderless)

(Decentralization Borderless)

-- (Environmental
Governance and Public-Private-People Sectors)

(Mindset)

6-23

ASEAN


, (
)

3 3

 6 20

(From Grave to Green)

(Molted Crab)

(Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green Decentralization )

(Go Green Borderless)

(Decentralization Borderless)

()






R&D

6-24

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(From Grave to Green)

(Molted Crab)

(Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green Decentralization )

(Go Green Borderless)

(Decentralization Borderless)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) 2/2555
28 .. 2555

6-25

 6 20

6-2: 3

( , )

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) 2/2555

28 .. 2555

6-26

 20

20
(.) Sasin Institute for Global Affairs
(SIGA) 2/2555



28 .. 2555

(.. 2555-2560)





(.. 2561-2565)
(.. 2566-2575)
(Green Society)



2 (.. 2565)

6-27

 6 20

1:

20



20

2 (.. 2561-2565) 3
(.. 2566- 2575 )

(Centralization)
(Decentralization)

2
(Go Green)
(Decentralization)



(.. 2566- 2575 )

6-28

:










( )

 20

2:

20





20

2 (..2561-2565) 3
(..2566- 2575 )


(National Citizenship)
(Global Citizenship)


2
(Go Green) (Borderless)


(..2566-2575)

6-29

:



(
)

 6 20

3:

20

20

(Go Green, Do Together)

2 (.. 2561-2565) 3
(.. 2566- 2575 )


(Group Interest)
(National Interest)
2
(Decentralization)
(Borderless)


(.. 2566-2575)

6-30

(
)

 20

6.3


20 (
1) 1 2
E-Delphi

( 6.5)








( 7)
2
20 6.2 (
2) 3

4 ( 6.6)

4



6-31

 6 20

( 6-7) 7

6-32

 20

6-5:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs) SIGA(

:

6-33

 6 20

6.6:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs) SIGA( (2555)

6-34

 20

6.7:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs) SIGA( (2555)

6-35

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7

20
7.1 20
(Scenario Building Workshop)
2

3 1
4



20
0

7.2 (Pre-condition)

20 4
1

: 3 92 (Median
4.33 5) ( (Inter Quartile Range; IQR) 1.5

7-1

 7 20

1.

(Feedback)



( )
( )


7-1

7-2

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-1:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

(
)
( 7-2)

(Holistic Approach)


(Ecological
Footprint)

The Story of Stuff Project (www.storyofstuff.org)

7-3

 7 20

(Environmental Literacy)






7-2:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

2. (Linear Thinking)
(Closed-loop Thinking)

(Cradle to Grave)




7-4

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Cradle to Cradle)
7-3:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

3.

(Land Grabbling Offshore Farming)

(Virtual Water trade)

(Stock) (Flow)

7-5

 7 20

7-4:
(Multi-level Governance)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

4.
(Adaptive Governance)
(Complex Adaptive System)
(Feedback) (Positive Feedback Loop)
(Negative Feedback Loop) (Delay) (Self-organization)
(Adaptation)

3
1. (Problems of Complexity)
(Thresholds) (Feedback Loops) (Dynamic)
(Non-linear Interaction)
7-6

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Adaptive
Governance) (Flexible) (Learning)
(Collaboration)
2. (Problems of Uncertainty and Change)



(Buffer) (Safety
Factor)
3. (Problems of Fragmentation)
(Function-based Organization)

(Static)

(Dynamic)
(Agenda-based Approach)

7-7

 7 20

7-5:
(adaptive governance)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

7.2

.. 2540-2559
( , 2553)
.. 2555-2559 ..
2555-2593

7
.. 2560-2579 (

( 2) .. 2556 )
7

7-8

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1.


(Resource Decoupling)
(Impact Decoupling) (Green
Economy)
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.

7.

7-9

 7 20

7-6: 20

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

7-10

 (Final Report)
( 1)

1


(Resource Decoupling)
(Impact Decoupling)
(Green Economy)


.. 2050 9 ( 7
)
20
4

20

20

(Asian Century)

(Middle Income Trap)



(Resource Based Economy) (Knowledge Based Economy)



7-11

 7 20

(Resource Decoupling)
(Impact Decoupling) (Green
Economy)
Decoupling
Decoupling 2
Resource
Decoupling
Impact Decoupling

( 7-7)
7-7:

: UNEP (2011)

Decoupling
Environmental Kuznets Curve

7-12

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-8:
Environmental Kuznets Curve

: UNEP (2011)
: DI Decoupling Index

Decoupling

( 3
.. 1980 100)

Resource Decoupling Impact Decoupling

Decoupling
30


7-13

 7 20

Decoupling

7-14

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-9:

: World Development Indicators 2, SIGA .. 1980

20

20

(Relatively Decoupling) (
)
(Absolutely Decoupling) (
)

World Development Indicators Database, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators

7-15

 7 20

7-10:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

:
1.
2.

DI Decoupling Index

DI <0 Absolutely Decoupling

DI < 0

7-16

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-11:

: (2553)

(Green Investment)
(2553)

3
1 (BAU)
.. 2040-2050 4.69
22 .. 2050
4 20.12

2 (Low Growth Scenario)

2

1 1.6
2 10.9
3

2 4.48
7-17

 7 20

.. 2050
1
2 10.9 2
(

) (
)

1 20

(Green Investment )

(Green Job)





7-18

 (Final Report)
( 1)

( )

20-30





7-19

 7 20

(mobility management)






10-30
15

7-20

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Sustainable Lifestyles & Education)

(Green Technology)


Impact Decoupling
Resource Decoupling

7-21

 7 20

6
6

(Sasin Institute for
Global Affairs: SIGA), 2554b) 2


(Nonrenewable Resource)

30 58
131


(Renewable Stock)
( 7-12)

7-22

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-12:
(Nonrenewable Stock Stock Limit)

: Meadows (2008)

(Renewable Resource) (Source)
(Sink)





(Flow
Rate)
(Regeneration Rate)
(Critical Threshold)
(Nonrenewable Stock)
(Climate Change)
( 7-13)

7-23

 7 20

7-13:
(Renewable Stock Flow Limit)

: Meadows (2008)

Stock
Limit Flow Limit
20
(User Pays Principle: UPP)

(Payment for Ecosystem Services:
PES)

( 7-14)
7-15 7-16

7-24

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-14: (PES)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

7-1: (PES)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

7-25

 7 20

7-2: (PES)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

2
20

2

(Flow)
(User
Pays Principle: UPP)

2 20

-
(PES)
(Green
Conditional Cash Transfer, Green CCT)
7-26

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Local Nature
Partnerships)
(National Account)
(National Wealth Account)

40 25

7-27

 7 20

-

(UNEP, 2011)

-


(Sustainable Land Management)
-

- (Buffer)

(Strategic Environmental Assessment: SEA)

- (Social Safety Net)

(Food
Vouchers) (Cash Transfer)

(Stock to Use
Ratio) 20

- (Competitiveness)
(Responsiveness)

7-28

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-29

 7 20

3

3
(Impact Decoupling)
1
(Polluter Pays Principle: PPP)

(Internalization of Environmental Costs)

(Preventive

Approaches)


(Full Life Cycle)
( 7-15)



(Cradle to Cradle)
20 (Sound Material
cycle system) (Material)
(Material Flow Accounts, MFA)

(Resource Productivity) (Cyclical Use Rate)
(Final Disposal Amount)

(Zero Waste Society)

7-30

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-15:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

7-31

 7 20

7-16: (Sound Material Cycle System)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2555)

7-32

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3 20

(Cradle to Cradle)

(Material Flow Accounts, MFA)
(Social Cost)


(Waste to Energy)






(Co-funding)

(E-waste)


(Green Finance)
(Green Credit)

7-33

 7 20

(Green Chemistry)

(New Local Green Areas)

(EcoEngineering)

(Eco-participation, Eco-thinking Eco-sharing)
(Environmental Literacy)
7-34

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Urban Biodiversity)

7-35

 7 20

2
(Mitigation)
(Adaptation)



(Resilience)
(Sasin Institute for Global Affairs: SIGA, 2010C)
(Mitigation)

(Low Carbon Economy)



(Adaptation)
(Mitigation)

7-36

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Public) (Private) (People)
(Mitigation)





(Adaption)





(Climate-resilient Society)





Sasin Institute
for Global Affairs (SIGA, 2554a)
5
7-37

 7 20

(Simulation)

() ..
2555-2593 4

5
1.
7-38

 (Final Report)
( 1)

2.
3.
4.

5.

..
2560 2579
( 2) ..2556
.. 2555-2593

7-39

 7 20

7-17:

Physical Changes
Temperature Rise

-

-

Change in
Precipitation Pattern

Sea Level Rise

-
-
:
-

Extreme Events
Etc.

Regulatory Dimension

Unilateral Measures;
Sectoral Initiatives;
Go Green Trends.

-

-

:

-
-
-
-
-
-

7-40

 (Final Report)
( 1)

Sectoral Initiatives
Go Green

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2010a)

7-41

 7 20

7-18:

Exposure

Sensitivity

Coping Capacity

Potential Impacts/Risks

Vulnerability

Actions that Reduce Vulnerability and Build

Resilience
Policy and Investment Options

Mitigation

Low Carbon
Economy

Synergies

Adaptation

Sustainable Development Policies

Climate-resilient Society

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2010a)

: IPCC

7-42

 (Final Report)
( 1)

5


Global Environmental Outlook 5 (UNEP, 2012 b)
90
(Significant progress) 4
(Montreal
Protocol)

(Some
Progress) 40 (Very Little
or no Progress) 24 (Deteriorating) 8
14 ( 2 GEO 5)
20






Rio+20
- (Intergovernmental Process)

(Sustainable Development Goals: SDGs)
MDGs .. 2015

-
(Universal
Intergovernmental High Level Political Forum)
Rio+20

7-43

 7 20

- 10
(10-year Framework
of SCP)
MEAs (Frank Biermann et al., 2012)
UNEP United
Nations
Sustainable Development Council UN General Assembly
(PPP)
(Transnational Labeling Schemes)
(Multi-stakeholder Governance)






MEAs
(Emerging
Technology)

(Geoengineering) (Synthetic Biology)
(Water Governance) (Food Governance Energy)
(Governance Complex Ecosystem Service)

7-44

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-19:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2012)

5 20

190

7-45

 7 20

(Strategic
Environmental Assessment: SEA)


(Knowledge Management)




(MEAs)
( )
( ) (

)
(Political Space)
(Polycentric)

(Agenda Setting)
SDGs
10

UNEP
(Green Economy)
(Stakeholders)
7-46

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(GMS)


(GMS)

(ASEAN Wildlife Enforcement Network, ASEAN-WEN)

7-47

 7 20

.. 2540 ...
.. 2542
.. 2550



3
( , 2554)

7-48

 (Final Report)
( 1)

.





















.
.

7-49

 7 20

7-20:

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) (2012)

20 ( . )


Subsidiarity ( ,
2552)
( 7-22)

7-50

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3

. .




.

.

.. 2539
.
.


7-51

 7 20

.
.
/

(Community-Based Policy)

7-52

 (Final Report)
( 1)

4 (Meadows, 2008)

4
1. (Paradigms):


(Critical mass)
(Fair Distribution)




(Sustainable Development)

2. (Goal):

( )

7-53

 7 20

3. (Rule):



( Glasnost)
( Perestroika)




4. :


(Delay)
(Overshoot)
(Undershoot)
(Over react) (Under React)

7-23

7-54

 (Final Report)
( 1)

7-21: (Leverage Points)

: Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

7 20


(Environmental Education)
(Active
Citizenship)
Green GDP
(Natural Accounting)
(Sustainable
Development Goals, SDGs)

(Agenda Setting)


(Green Tax)
(PES) (Green
Conditional Cash Tr ansfer )

7-55

 7 20

(Material Flow)

Infographic, Videographic, Facebook, Twitter

( )









(Green Policy Bank)



(Public Environmental Expenditure Review: PEER)
( )


(Green Tax) (PES)

(Strategic Environmental Assessment: SEA)

7-56

 (Final Report)
( 1)

(Adaptive Governance)

7-57

 7 20

7.3
.. 2560-2579


( 1)
.. 2560-2579

1.

20

2.





.. 2558

7-58

 (Final Report)
( 1)

3. ..
2560-2579

.. 2560-2579
3






(Joint KPI)




(Missing Link) (Pre-conditions)
(Barrier) (Bottleneck)

Infographic

7-59

Adaptation

Afforestation

Aichi Biodiversity
Targets

-1

.. 2011-2020 (Strategic Plan for

Biodiversity 2011-2020) 20
5

20

1 .. 2020

(
http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/)
Black Carbon



(Biomass Burning)
( )
(Engine
Combustion)

Backcasting Technique

()
( )
Beneficiaries Pay

Principle (BPP)


Benefit Sharing

(Nagoya
Protocol)

Biodiversity

BRICS
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
Africa

Jim ONeill Building
-2

Business As Usual

Cancun Agreements

Cap-and-trade
Schemes

Circular Economy

-3

Better Global Economic BRICs 2001

.. 2010

BRIICS

16 (COP16)
6 (CMP6)
.. 2010
.. 2012

(
http://cancun.unfccc.int/)







(
)

Climate Change

CO2 Equivalent

Cradle to Cradle

Decoupling

Ecosystem

Ecosystem Services
Emission Trading
Scheme

3R

(Reduce, Reuse, Recycle)




carbon dioxide equivalent
1
21

Decoupling

EU-ETS
-4

Extreme Event

Freshwater Availability

Foresight

Global Megatrends
Global Supply Chains

Global Value Chains

Good Governance

Green CCT

(Green Conditional
Cash Transfer)

Green City

-5

.. 2554
.. 2554


Green Economy

Green Growth

Green Jobs

Greenhouse Gas
(GHG)

Horizon Scanning

Land Grabbing

(Horizon Scanning)

(Uncertainty)

-6

IEA (International
Energy Agency)

Low Carbon Society

Market economy

Material Flow Accounts

(MFA)

Mean Species
Abundance (MSA)

Millennium
Development Goals
(MDGs)
Mitigation

Multilateral

-7

1.00-0.00

MSA 1.0
(Pristine State) 0.0

.. 2558


Environmental
Agreements (MEAs)
Multipolar World

OECD (Organisation



for Economic Co

operation and
34 (
Development)
www.oecd.org)
Offshore farming

Particulate Matter up to
10 10
10 micrometres (PM10)

10

PM10

PM10

Payment for Ecosystem

Services (PES)

Polluters Pay Principle

(PPP)





-8


Precautionary Principle

ppm

Parts per million

Public-Private
Partnership

Renewable Resource

Scenario
Scenario building

Sound Material Cycle

Society

Subsidiarity

-9

(Future Vision)
(Long-term Policy)
(Sound Material Cycle
Society)

..
1991
(Japan Environment Agency)

3R (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle)



(Economies of Scale)

Sustainable
Development 2.0

2.0

Tradeoff

Virtual Water

Water Footprint

Weak Signals/ Early

Warning

-10

2.0

(
1.0
20

2.0

)

( )
(

)
(Opportunity)


(
)

World GDP

-11

. 2554a. () 2553.
.
. 2553. .. 2553,
.
. 2554b. 2544-2553.
.
.2551.
.
. 2553.
, .
. 2554. . 5 55,
, 21 2554.
. 2554.

,
.
. 2548. ,
.
. 2554. ,
http://social.nesdb.go.th/SocialStat/StatSubDefault_Final.aspx?catid=7.
(). 2555. Thailand Flood Monitoring
System, http://flood.gistda.or.th/.
. 2553. 2553,
.

. 2551. .
http://forestinfo.forest.go.th/55/Default.aspx ( 15 2555).
-1


.
2550. .
http://irw101.ldd.go.th/irw101.ldd/new/newwork_degradation.html ( 15 2555).
. 2553.
.
. 2551.
.. 2551-2555.
. 2546. .
2. . .
. 2551.
:
.
.
, . 2551.

.
. .
.2553.

.
(SCB Economic Intelligence Center: SCB EIC). 2010.
?, .
. 2552. 2562. .
. 2552.
.

.. 2556,

. 2553.

.. 2540-2559
.

-2

 (Sasin Institute for Global Affairs: SIGA). 2554a.

11 3

(Sasin Institute for Global Affairs: SIGA). 2554b.

11 6

.
(Sasin Institute for Global Affairs: SIGA). 2554C.

11
(.)
.
. 2555.
11 .. 2555 2559.
. 2551.
2551 . ... 2570
15 2551 .
(.) (2553).
.. 2540-2559.
. 2540.
.. 2540 2559.
. 2555a.
.. 2555 2559.
. 2552.
, 2553, ,
, http://forestinfo.forest.go.th/55/Content.aspx?id=147
(). 2555. Thailand Flood Monitoring
System, http://flood.gistda.or.th/.
-3

 . 2555b.

.. 2554 ().
.2555. .. 2555,
.
. 2555. .. 2555.
.
. 2552.
2552.
http://www.oae.go.th/download/use_soilNew/article_soil2552.html ( 15 2555).
. 2554. ,
http://social.nesdb.go.th/SocialStat/StatSubDefault_Final.aspx?catid=7.
.2553. .
. 2553. 2.
.
. 2552.
:
.

Alcamo. 2008. The SAS Approach: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Knowledge in
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China Briefing .2011. China unveils its 12th Five-year plan on environmental protection
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European Commission. 2011. A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in
2050, Brussels.
European Environment Agency (EEA). 2007. EEA Research Foresight for Environment and
Sustainability, Denmark.
European Environment Agency. 2011. The European Environment- State and Outlook 2010
Assessment of Global Megatrends. Copenhagen.
Frank Biermann et al. 2012. Transforming governance and institutions for global sustainability: key
insights from the Earth System Governance Project. Current Opinion in Environmental
Sustainability.
Global Business Network. 2003. The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What will South Africa be like in the
year 2002?, Deeper News, 7(1).
HM Government. 2011. The Natural Choice: Securing the value of nature,
http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/blueprint_secure_energy_future.pdf.
Hugh Cortney .2003. Decision-driven scenarios for assessing four levels of uncertainty. Strategy
& Leadership, Vol. 31 Iss: 1, pp.14 22.
Jill Jager et al. 2007. IEA Training Manual Module 6: Scenario development and analysis. International Institute
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Kok, Kaper et al., 2011. Report on the new methodology for scenario analysis, including guidelines
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Project. Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold. 2003. Scenario Planning: The Link Between
Future and Strategy. Palgrave: Macmillan.
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development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technological Forecasting and
Social Change 78(5): 835-851.
Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold. 2003. Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and
Strategy .
Meadows. Donella H. 2008. Thinking in Systems. Chelsea Green Publishing Company.
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Lively and Liveable Singapore: Strategies for Sustainable Growth. Singapore.
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-7

1-1

1
: 1
: 11 .. 2555
(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
1/2555




11 .. 2555

1.

39 , 28 , 3 , 9
, 16 3 98
3 29.5
( 12.5) ( 11.4)

35.6 ( 18.4) 1
( 12.6)
30.2 (
17.4) ( 15.1)
0

1-2

2.
20
5
:


Cradle to cradle ( )


(Mitigation/Adaptation)
(Biodiversity)
(Risk Management)

1-3


20

: 3 1 2 3
3 2 1

20

3 1 2 3
:
3 2 1

1-4

2 1 2
:
2 1

3.
1: 20
1.1 20
4
A: A Clear Enough Future
B: Alternate Futures,
C: A Range of Future
D: True Ambiguity

1-5

A. (Clear
Enough Future)

B.

(Alternate Future)

C.
(Range
of Future)

D.
(True Ambiguity)

: Hugh Courtney, (2003) "Decision-driven scenarios for assessing four levels of uncertainty", Strategy &
Leadership, Vol. 31 Iss: 1, pp.14 - 22

44.6 B Alternate
Futures True Ambiguity ( 21.7) Range of Future ( 17.4)
Clear Enough Future ( 13.0) 3.3 (
1-1)
1-6

 1-1: 20

44.6%

21.7%
17.4%
13.0%

3.3%
A

1.2 20
(Business as usual)
( 53.3 31.5
) 10.9
3.3 12)
1-2: 20
100.0%
80.0%
53.3%

60.0%

31.5%

40.0%
10.9%

20.0%
0.0%
0.0%

3.3%

1-7

1.1%

1.3
20
28.4 ( 23.0)
( 18.3)
1-3:
20

3 1, 2, 3
:
3 2 1

1.4

20

20
54.3 ( 38.3)
( 5.3) ( 2.1)

20
29.8 ( 25.5)
1-8

 ( 21.3) ( 16)
(Unipolar) (Multipolar World) ( 6.4)
1.1
(MEAs)

20
61.7 (14.9) (
11.7) (7.4) ( 2.2)

20
26.6 ( 24.5)
( 23.4) ( 16)
( 8.5) 1.1
1.5
20

48.3 ( 19.2)
( 16.4)

1-9

 1-4:

20

2 1 2
:
2 1

1.6

20

( 38.5) 35.0
( 14.0)

1-10

 1-5:
20

2 1 2
:
2 1

2:
Surprise)

(Uncertainty

&

2.1
20

34.0 ( 19.1) ( 15.3)

BRIC

1-11

 1-6:
20

2 1 2
:
2 1

2.2
48.4
( 27.4) ( 13.7)
( 5.3) 1.1
4.2
2.3
20

32.6
( 27.3) ( 17.0)

1-12

 1-7:
20

2 1 2
:
2 1

2.4

43.2
( 30.5) ( 18.9) ( 3.2)

4.2
2.5
20

( 23.8)
( 23.8) ( 16.4) ( 11.7)

1-13

 1-8:
20

2 1 2
:
2 1

2.6

53.8 ( 22.6) ( 21.5)
( 1.1)
1.1
2.7
20

40.6 ( 33.0) ( 10.3)
,
( )

1-14

 1-9:
20

2 1 2
:
2 1

2.8
50
( 23.9) ( 21.7)
( 3.3)
1.1
2.9
20


GMO 43.8 ( 15.2)
, ,

CDM,


1-15

 1-10:
20

2 1 2
:
2 1

2.10
45.2
( 24.7) ( 24.7)
( 3.2) ( 1.1) 1.1

2.11
64.9
( 18.1) ( 14.9) ( 2.1)
( 2.1)

1-16

 3:
3.1 20
49.5 ( 24.5)
10.5 1.1
4.2
3.2 20
20
28.2 ( 24.3) ( 17.3) ( 17.9)
( 8.2)
1-11: 20

2 1 2
:
2 1

1-17

3.3

1 50
( 12.8) ( 8.5) ( 8.5)

2 35.8
( 11.6) ( 9.5)

34.4 ( 21.5) ( 21.5)
( 1-12)
1-12:

3.4
43.5
( 29.3)
( 17.4) ( 8.7)
( 1.1)

1-18

3.5 (Emerging Issues) 20

1 -

-

-
-
-

/
-
-
()
-

-
-

-
-

-
-
-
-

- ()
-
-
-

(Mitigation/Adaptation)

1-19

-

-

4 (Risk
Management)

- (complex)
- priority
-
-

-

- /

-
-


-

-
, , (
)

-
- demand side
-

-


-
-


1-20

-
-

-
-

-
-
-
-
-

5 -

- Green Economy
GE
- /

4:
4.1 40.7
( 20.9)
( 19.8) ( 16.5)
2.2
4.2 20

25.3 ( 21.8) ( 19.2) (
13.9)
1-21

 1-13: 20

2 1 2
:
2 1

4.3

1 54.3
( 10.9) (
8.7)
2 46.6
( 13.6) ( 10.2)
( 10.2)
2
34.4 ( 20.4) ( 11.8)
( 1-14)
1

1-22

 1-14:

4.4
39.8

25.8 ( 6.5)


4.5 (Emerging Issues) 20

-

-
- Cradle to cradle

-
-

/
1-23

- /

3
(Mitigation/Adaptation)

-
-
-
-
-
-

4 (Risk
Management)

-
-
-

- (transboundary)
- (complex)
- priority

-

-

-
, Climate Change
,
IT,

-
1-24

/



- /

-
-
-
-
- /

-
-
-
-
-

-
-

-
-
-
-
-

1-25

 5:

5.1
(Coexist with nature) (Master nature)
76.6 (Coexist with nature)
2 ( 19.1) (Master
nature) 2.1
5.2

72.3
( 11.7)
( 7.4)
45.1
( 23.1)
( 15.4)


78 (
14.3) ( 4.4) ( 1-15)

1-26

 1-15:

5.3 ,
, 60.9
19.6
14.1 3.3 2.2
3
5.4
,

90.2

7.6 1.1
3
()
()
5.5
29.7
( 23.9) ( 21.7)
( 20.7) 3.3

1-27

5.6 (Leader)
53.8
(Leader)
( 32.3) 5.4
3.2 3

5.7
1

34.7 ( 20.5)
( 17.4) ( 11.5) ( 1-16)
1-16:

2 1 2
:
2 1

5.8 (Full
Cost) 35.6
( 34.4)
( 25.6) 1.1
3.3

1-28

 1-17:

5.9

47.2
(function-base approach) (issue-based approach)
( 15.7)
( 13.5)
( 12.4) ( 4.5)
( 2.2) 4.5
(1)
(2)
(3)

1-29

 1-18:

5.10
72


( 12.9)
( 5.4)
9.7


5.11
44.7

( 25.5)
( 24.5) 5.3

1-30

2-1

2
:
: 28 .. 2555
(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
2/2555

28 ..

2-2

2555


:
- : 28 2555 08.00 16.00 .
: The Library B 1
08.00 - 08.30 .

08.30 - 08.45 .

08.45 - 09.00 .

Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

09.00 - 09.30 .

.
Managing Director

09.30 - 10.30 .

(Horizon Scanning)

10.30 - 10.45 .

10.45 - 12.00 .

(Backcasting)

12.00 - 13.00 .

13.00 - 14.20 .

(Scenario Building)

14.20 - 14.40 .

2-3

14.40 - 16.00 .

(Presentation)

2
(Scenarios Building) 3 (
)
(Stakeholders)


(Trends)
(Uncertainties)

(Forecasting)

3
1. (Horizon Scanning)
2. (Backcasting Technique)
3. (Scenario Building)

2-4


(Horizon Scanning)
(Horizon scanning)


(Mainstream Ideology)
(Planning)

(Uncertainty)

(Threat)
(Risk) (New Opportunities)

3
- (Emerging issues)
- (Trend)
- (Wild Card)
5
1. (Social) 2. (Technology) 3. (Economy) 4.
(Environment) 5. (Politics) 6. (Energy) STEEP+
(Horizon Scanning)

2-5

Lifestyle

Lifestyle

Value shift

(Social)

(Organic food)

(Ecotourism)

Family and Household

()

Value shift

Value shift

Family and Household

2-6

Mobility

Generalize
Urbanization

Cultural Globalization

Social security

(Social
Cohesion)

Social security

Generalize

Health

(Economic)

National Goal:
Economic Growth vs. Environment

GDP

Product Development and Production

Income and Wealth Inequality

2-7

Product Development and Production

National Goal:
Economic Growth vs. Environment

Regional Intregation

AEC

/
Regionnal Intregation

2-8

/ FTA

3
Trade Barrier

Group Interests Self Interest

Group Interests Self Interest

(Politic)

National Interests- Regional Interest

(Regionalism)
(Localism)

Polical Participation

Green Politics

Political Parcitipation

AEC

Political Parcitipation

( Direct
Democracy) ( )
3

2-9

Regional Intigration

(Environment)

Resource Sufficiency

Natural Disaster

(Imbalance)

(Resource
Insufficiency)
( Water

Natural Disaster

Green Space/Vertical Garden

Green Products

Resource Sufficiency

Footprint)

(Nominee)

2-10

(
)

Green Society

(Carbon Credit)




New Global Supply

(Awareness) (Space Mining)

Green Products

2

(Electronic Waste)
Rules & Regulations

(Law Punishment)

(Misuse of Resource)

2-11

Positive effects of new technology

Positive effects of new technology

(Technology)

Positive effects of new technology

(Virtual Office)

(GMOs)
,

(Smart Grid)

(Value Chain)

Negaitive effects of new technology

2-12

Carrying Capacity

/
)




GMOs

(Energy)

Alternative Energy

Alternative Energy

Community Energy

(Self-sufficiency)

Conflict

2-13

Alternative Energy

, , (
H2O)
Community Energy



(Driving Force) 3
(Juggling Force) Scenario Logic
STEEP + 6 2 3 (2X3X6 = 36 )
(Driving force) 3
3
(Horizon Scanning)

(Impact) (Cross-cutting Influence)
3 (Juggling Forces)

(Go Green)
2.0 (Sustainable
Development 2.0)





(Decentralization)





(Borderless)

2-14

 (Scenario Logic)
Scenario Logic 6 2
2

(Scenario logic)

Social

Economy

Politics

Environment

Technology

Energy

Awareness

Social Structure

Cultural Convergence

Lifestyle

Individual value

Social Participation

Growth centric

Regional cooperation
Gain

Non-Tariff Barriers

Green centric

National loss

Economic Integration

Hidden Agenda

Interest groups

Natural resource conflicts

Green Politics
centric

Mass
National
Mobilization
loss

Social Collaboration

Environment migration
conflict

Resource Management
(Global)

Global collaboration

Solidarity

Authority (Local)

Transfer of pollution

Holistic

Green Technology

Unintended consequence

Unintended
consequence

Exploitative
Technology

Positive and Negative

effects of technology

Transformation

Alternative Energy

Alternative Energy

Decoupling

Energy Scarcity

Energy security

2-15


(Backcasting)

(Backcasting)
(Scenario Logic)




STEEP+ Scenario Logic 6 2 = 12
Card technique (Post-it Note)

(Scenario Logic) (
)
6
3
- 28 2575 (20 )
- 28 2565 (10 )
- 28 2560 (5 )
3

(Weak Signal)/ (Emerging Issue)/
(Trend) 3

2-16

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

.. 2575 (20 )

Decentralization

Decentralization

Localization

( Sustainable
Development)



Public/private participant

Localization

Food security

Natural Resource Conflicts

Public Private
Partnership

Green Politics

2-17

Rules & Regulations

Decentralization

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

New Indicators

GDP
Peoples Awareness

Green

Peoples Awareness and Action

Trade Barrier

Environmental Pollution

New Technology

new
technology platform

2-18

.. 2575 (20 )


Peoples Awareness

Go Green

Green Politics

Green NGOs

Alternative Energy

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

.. 2575 (20 )

Mobility

(White Collar)

Natural resource Conflicts

Life Style (Go Green)

Globalization

Real Sector

Life Style (Go Green)

(Mobile Home)

2-19

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

.. 2575 (20 )
New Technology

Climate Change

Natural Resource Conflicts

Competition Economic

Environmental Pollution

(E-waste)

New Technology: Social Media

(Social media)

(Productivity)
Awareness


2.0 5

2-20

Alternative Energy

(
)
Labor Mobility
(Melting Pot)

Awareness

(Global Citizenship)

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

Commpetition Economic

Disaster

Resource Sufficiency

Feul

(Disaster Crisis)

(New Cold War)

(Virtual Community)

Commpetition Economic

(
)
Emerging Disease

New Technology: Social Media

Natural Resource Conflicts

Emerging Disease

Resource Sufficiency

Political Conflict

.. 2575 (20 )

Global collaboration

Global Zoning

( Global
punishment)
Environmental

2-21

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

.. 2575 (20 )

Localization

Global collaboration

Urbanization

Social Network

(ASEAN Carbon Market)

NRE

New Information Technology: Social media

Public Awareness & Creating Supportive

Communities

Green

Social Media

(
)

MOU

Food Science )


Biofuel Energy Grid

2-22

Small-scale Management as a part of
regional / global







A

A

Increasing people's awareness

. 2560 (5 )
Alternative energy

.. 2565 (10 )

Global Collaboration

Environment MOU

Environment
MOU

/
24

(Warning system)
(Warning system)

/

( /
/ / )

Increasing People's Awareness

Green industry / Green

energy

3
3

2-23

.. 2575 (20 )
( /
)

-








Increasing People's Action





/
/

(Social Network)

. 2560 (5 )

ASEAN

.. 2565 (10 )

Gen Y

Localization

Environmental Pollution

Natural Resource Conflicts

.. 2575 (20 )

1 1 (One
Tumbon One Energy)




78


/


Green Politic

2-24

Global Collaboration

(South to South Technology
Transfer)

South to
South Technology Transfer Project

/
(
)

(
)

/

40%
AEC FTA

. 2560 (5 )

.. 2565 (10 )

.. 2575 (20 )

Natural Resource Conflicts

( /
)

2-25

Natural Resource Conflicts

20%




/

/

,
/

 (Scenario Building)
(Scenario building)
(Society)
(Technology) (Economics) (Environment) (Politics)
(Energy) STEEP+
3 (Juggling Forces) (Go
Green)
2.0 (Sustainable Development 2.0)
(Decentralization) (Borderless)

2-26

(From Grave to Green)

(Molted Crab)

(Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green Decentralization )

(Go Green Borderless)

(Decentralization Borderless)

(
,
,
,

2-27

(From Grave to Green)

(Molted Crab)

(Dolphins Riding the Waves)

(Go Green Decentralization )

(Go Green Borderless)

(Decentralization Borderless)

-- (Environmental
Governance and Public-Private-People Sectors)

(Mindset)

2-28

ASEAN


, (
)

3 3

-
.

10

11

12

13

2-29

14

15

16

17

..

18

19

20

(.)

21

22

.
23

24

(.) (
)
25

()
26

2-30

-
. ()

2-31

-
. (.)

..

10

11

.
()

12

2-32


13

14

..

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

2-33

25

26

27

Oxfam

2-34

10

11

12

2-35


13

14

15

16

17

18

.
19

20

21

.
22

National Programme Officer

UNIDO Regional Officer

23

()
24

2-36

3-1

1
:
(Green Socioeconomic in the Age of Extremity)
: 9 .. 2555
(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
1/2555
(Green Socioeconomic in the Age of Extremity)

20
9 2555 Renoir room 4

1.

(1)
20
(2) (3)
(4) (success factor)
(5)
(6) (Gap)
(7) (8)
(9)

1.1.
20


3-2

1.2.

(
)

()

3-3

1.3. (Success Factor)

(1)

(1)
(2)
(1)
(2) (3)

(1) (Production)
(2)

Supply Chain

(1)



(2)





1.4.

3-4

1.5. (Gap)
3 (
)









1.6.





1.7.

3-5


(
)

1.8.

3-6

2.
2.1. Green Growth

3-7

(Creative Technology)

Idea Creative

2.2. (Institutional Mechanisms)

(Council for Sustainable Development: CSD)

3-8

Reactivate

2.3. (Policy Instrument)

CNG, LPG
(Taxi )

( Clean
Development

Mechanism, CDM)
(Private
cost) (Public cost)
Externality

(Bond)

Carbon Tax

SMEs
SMEs

3-9

3-10

3.

(.)

. (.) .

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

10

11

12

13

(.)

14

3-11

(.)

15

(.)

16

17

18

19

20

21

(NGOs)
22

23

24

25

26

27

SIGA

28

SIGA

SIGA

3-12

29

..

SIGA

30

SIGA

3-13

4-1

(Food-Fuel-Freshwater Security in the context of climate change)

: 17 2555
(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
2/2555

(Food-Fuel-Freshwater Security in the Context of Climate

Change)
20

17 2555 Renoir room 4

1.

20

4-2

()

4 ( )

2.

20

( )
1,200 /
950 /

4-3

3.

20

GMOs

()

(Zoning) 3

4-4

4.

20

.



(Contract Farming)

2


10 (
15 )

Share Resources ()
EU
3

Energy Grid ( )

Climate Change
2020

4-5

5.

(Policy Gap)

(Knowledge
Gap)

Know-how

(System and Institutional Gap)

Biochemical
Polymer

6. 20


Safety Net




( )


4-6

10

11

12

4-7

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

(.)

21

. (.)

(.)

22

. 4

(.)

23

(.)

24

(.)

25

(.)

26

(.)

4-8

27

(.)

28

(.)

29

..

(.)

30

(.)

31

32

33

..

34

IFD

35

36

37

38

NGOs

39

NGOs

40

NGOs

4-9

5-1

3
:

(Environmental Agreement in the context of sustainable development)
: 22 .. 2555
(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
3/2555

(Environmental Agreement in the Context of Sustainable

Development)
20

22 2555 Renoir room 4

1. (MEAs)
20
11
(Green economy) (Low Carbon Society)
(Global Environment Outlook 5:GEO 5) UNEP

(UNEP)
Take Note
UNEP UNEP
UNEP

(MEAs)
WTO MEAs
5-2

(Global Environmental Governance)

(Global Economic Governance)

(WTO)
(IMF)
Soft law Hard law 1 Convention
Climate Change
Hard Law
Package 2
Convention Inclusive Transparency
Openness
1

2. MEAs
20
(Environment Justice)




MEAs MEAs
MEAs
3. (Trade Agreement) 20
MEAs
1

Frank Biermann et al. (2012) Transforming governance and institutions for global sustainability: key insights from
the Earth System Governance Project, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
2
Frank Biermann et al. (2012) Transforming governance and institutions for global sustainability: key insights from
the Earth System Governance Project, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

5-3

 WTO
(Multilateral Environmental Agreements: MEAs)
2 ( WTO, IMF, World Bank
) ( UNEP) 2



MEAs WTO

Green Economy
(Hierarchy)
4. MEAs Trade Agreement

190

Fast Track

Trade Agreement


MEAs

20
Policy (1) Platform (2) Process

National State

5. MEAs Trade Agreement

( )
5-4

 (Political Space) 67 2
HIA EIA
190
(Polycentric)


6.
Agreement

MEAs Trade

o (Capacity Building)

o /

o (Green Economy)
(Stakeholders)
o

o (Cluster)
(Cluster)
o MEAs


o AEC
o
o
5-5

(.)

(.)

(.)

10

11

(.)

12

(.)

13

.
(.)

(.)

5-6

 -
14

(.)

15

(.)

16

(.)

17

(.)

18

19

20

21

()

22

()

23

. ()

24

(HASLA)

5-7

--

6-1

4
: --
(Environmental Governance and Public-Private-People Partnership)
: 24 2555
(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
4/2555

(Food-Fuel-Freshwater Security in the Context of Climate

Change)
20

24 2555 1 M

1. 20
(Eco Factory)


(-)
()

TPI .
... .
EIA
EIA

6-2









.
(
)


2. (Gap)

Third-party

6-3

3. (Leverage Points)
20







(Environmental Education)

4. .
20

4

(.)

6-4


6
7
8
9
10

(.)

..

(.)

..

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

(.)

17

()

18

19

. ()

20

11
12
13
14
15
16

6-5

1 2

7-1

1.
1.1 (Key System Drivers)
20
1.2 (Uncertain Factors)
20
1.3 20

1.4 20

2.
1 28 25 2555
2 27 31 2555
3.
5 1) 2) 3)
4) 5)
1) 2) 3) // 4)
5) 6) 1
114 2 93
4.
(Delphi Method)

/


5.
5.1
1

2
1)

7-2

2) 1


1
2
1 2
2 1
2
2
(
)

5.2
1 5
1
2
20
3 20

4
20
5 20

2 2
1
20
2
20
6.
2 1) 2)

7-3

7.
7.1
1)
3

4.50-5.00

3.50-4.49

2.50-3.49

1.50-2.49

1.00-1.49

2)
3



(Inter quartile
range; IQR)
IQR = Q3-Q1 1.5

7.2


20
1) (IQR 1.5)
7-4

2) (Median
3.5 - 5)

2
1 1 2

17

14.9

13

14

18

15.8

14

15.1

19

16.7

14

15.1

14

12.3

10

10.9

46

40.4

42

45.7

114

100.0

93

100.0

1 1 114
2
1 93
1

7-5

20
3.1

20
30 34
( 2)
4
1)
2)
3)
4)
10
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
7-6

10)
6
1)
2)
3)
4)
5) GPS, GPRS,
6)
5
1) (Unipolar World) (Multipolar World)
2)
3)
4)

5) /
5
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

7-7

 2
20 1

10

10

7-8

GPS, GPRS,

5
(Unipolar World)
(Multipolar World)

34

31

27

* 1

7-9

2
20

3.2

20
38 53
( 3)
3
20 2

10

10

7-10

4
,
GMO
/

14

13

13

7-11

10

53

44

32

* 1

2
20

4
20
4.1
4
3 6

7-12



4
20
1.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

1.1

4.398

1.233

4.412

1.194

1.2

3.836

1.332

3.649

1.297

1.3

4.354

1.297

4.413

1.270

1.4 (
)

3.250

1.480

3.139

1.489

1.5

3.406

1.585

3.412

1.523

1.6

3.771

1.378

3.956

1.335

3.3
5
10
5
20
2.

Median

7-13

IQR

Median

IQR

2.1

4.200

1.333

4.250

1.266

2.2

3.877

1.298

3.943

1.300

2.3

4.622 0.889

4.640

0.871

2.4

4.149

1.335

4.162

1.332

2.5

4.192

1.274

4.118

1.276

2.6

3.811

1.327

3.813

1.308

2.7

3.747

1.384

3.794

1.416

2.8

4.269

1.313

4.256

1.279

2.9

3.819

1.367

3.764

1.358

2.10 /

4.171

1.315

4.145

1.311

2 1

3.4
6
6
20
3.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

3.1

4.429

1.172

4.386

1.220

3.2

4.159

1.205

4.124

1.213

7-14

3.3

3.597

1.676

4.119

1.537

3.4

3.743

1.344

3.716

1.336

3.5

3.278

1.389

3.265

1.484

3.6 GPS, GPRS,

3.681

1.455

3.708

1.401

3.7 /

3.486

1.451

3.507

2.222

3.8

4.429

1.172

4.386

1.220

2 1

3.5
7



7
20
4.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

4.1 (Unipolar
World) (Multipolar
World)

3.826

1.372

3.729

1.394

4.2

3.471

1.528

3.379

1.576

4.3

4.127

1.424

4.127

1.397

4.4

4.187

1.312

4.203

1.353

7-15

4.5

4.424

1.161

4.458

1.186

4.6
/

3.923

1.415

4.056

1.397

2 1

3.6
8
5
8
20
5.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

5.1

4.659

0.864

4.644

0.885

5.2

4.602

0.921

4.609

0.914

5.3

4.547

0.988

4.500

1.073

5.4

4.488

1.154

4.524

1.079

5.5

4.236

1.433

4.274

1.414

2 1

7-16

 5
20
5.1
9
6 10

/
9
20
1.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

1.1

3.389

1.439

3.389

1.396

3.623

1.449

1.2 (
)

3.155

1.428

3.296

1.407

3.296

1.454

1.3

3.501

1.398

3.493

1.422

3.662

1.402

1.4

3.710

1.405

3.704

1.367

3.614

1.435

1.5

3.986

1.324

3.900

1.363

4.070

1.359

1.6

4.057

1.403

4.149

1.363

4.090

1.490

1.7

3.269

1.490

3.462

1.567

3.283

1.673

1.8

4.250

1.371

4.216

1.420

4.276

1.355

1.9

3.486

1.474

3.493

1.585

3.417

1.438

7-17

1.

Median

1.10

/

3.794

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

1.414

3.791

1.427

3.746

1.456

2 1

5.2
10
7 9



10
20
2.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

2.1

3.985

1.351

4.147

1.310

3.873

1.312

2.2

3.408

1.341

3.558

1.284

3.361

1.417

2.3

3.800

1.283

3.944

1.282

3.822

1.308

2.4

3.942

1.319

3.972

1.256

3.924

1.379

2.5

3.529

1.468

3.541

1.374

3.647

1.425

2.6

3.985

1.311

3.986

1.287

3.940

1.373

7-18

2.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

2.7

3.973

1.252

3.865

1.272

3.956

1.315

2.8

3.507

1.528

3.643

1.444

3.592

1.447

2.9
3.194

1.466

3.030

1.430

3.352

1.419

2 1

5.3
11
4 7
/

11
20
3.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

3.1

3.462

1.589

3.462

1.589

3.738

1.551

3.2

3.466

1.398

3.466

1.398

3.589

1.385

3.3

3.970

1.358

3.970

1.358

4.087

1.420

7-19

3.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

GMO

3.4

3.446

1.604

3.446

1.604

3.667

1.584

3.5
/

4.347

1.342

4.347

1.342

4.319

1.403

3.6

4.488

1.119

4.488

1.119

4.458

1.178

3.7

3.916

1.348

3.916

1.348

4.028

1.328

2 1

5.4
12

8 14






12
20
4.

Median

Median

IQR

7-20

IQR

Median

IQR

4.1

3.148

1.670

3.224

1.525

3.219

1.630

4.2

3.089

1.652

2.909

1.433

3.717

1.814

4.3

3.050

1.595

3.134

1.454

3.108

1.483

4.4 3.250

1.651

3.382

1.548

3.379

1.623

4.5

3.635

1.578

3.333

1.647

3.532

1.677

4.6

3.324

1.558

3.323

1.571

3.364

1.574

4.7

3.600

1.434

3.466

1.415

3.700

1.404

4.8

4.189

1.357

3.600

1.433

4.153

1.354

4.9

4.041

1.343

3.746

1.449

4.043

1.417

4.10

4.273

1.335

4.427

1.232

4.384

1.427

4.11

4.588

0.953

4.179

1.656

4.634

0.927

4.12

4.633

0.878

4.263

1.378

4.617

0.944

4.13

4.624

3.982

1.596

0.918

7-21

4.556

1.030

4.

Median

Median

IQR

IQR

Median

IQR

4.14

4.386

1.221

4.000

7-22

1.821

4.444

1.238

5.5
13
20
5.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

5.1

4.609

0.914

0.861

5.2

4.432

1.210

4.342

1.295

4.519

1.092

5.3

4.200

1.342

4.081

1.333

4.372

1.322

5.4

4.147

1.319

4.110

1.338

4.253

1.292

5.5

4.309

1.243

4.284

1.240

4.374

1.228

5.6 4.221

1.295

4.184

1.308

4.269

1.298

5.7

4.577

0.959

4.598

0.925

4.600

0.911

5.8

4.580

0.938

4.517 1.013

4.629 0.888

5.9

4.471

1.128

4.374

1.212

4.407

1.271

5.10

4.494

1.141

4.417

1.177

4.458

1.182

5.11

4.282

1.293

4.266

1.272

4.243

1.393

5.12

3.806

1.343

3.800

1.291

4.056

1.360

4.524

1.039

4.663

7-23

5.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

5.13

3.913

1.365

3.886

1.353

4.042

1.337

5.14 /

3.939

1.765

3.789

1.383

4.082

1.633

2 1

7-24

20 1
3.1

20
21 29
3
1)
2)
3)
7
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
3
1)
2)
3)
7-25

 3
1) (Unipolar World) (Multipolar
World)
2)
3)

5
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
3.2

20
22 47
5
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
5
7-26

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
3
1) , GMO
2) /
3)
6
1)
2)
3)

4)
5)
6)
12
1)
2)
3)
4)
7-27

5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)

7-28

 6 20
20
1 14
14 20

7-29

2
1

7
1

. /

7-30

.
/


3

/
/ /
/
. /

environmentally
friendly

/

(Green urbanization)

.

/
/
.

.
1

7-31

/



.

7-32

7-33

1

/

1
1

7-34

(
)

/

7-35

Fossil fuel

7-36

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Replenish

cellulosic ethanol

/

7-37

7-38

. /

1
1

NGOs

7-39

7-40

driving force

7-41

1
1

1
1

()



3R

()

7-42

7 20
7-43

1
1

1
1

 20
1 15

7-44

 15 20

7-45

/
4

2



4

/ 3

4
()
(


) -
()

-
()

7-46

7-47

7-48

4
:

5
:

, GMO

7-49

renewable
energy(solar wind)
fussil fuel

7-50

..2015



(
)

4


..
2015

green

NGO

EIA

5
1 2

7-51

EIA

()

7-52

7-53

ASEAN

7-54

7-55

( 1)

1
1.

2.
5
1) 2) 3) 4)
5)
3. 5
1
7-56

 2 20

3 20
4 20

5 20

7-57

1
1

1.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6. .

2 20


(Certainty Factors)

(Mega Trends)


20
(Impact Level)
20
2
20

7-58

1
1.1
1.2

1.3
1.4 (
)

1.5

1.6



( 3
)
1.1) .
1.2) .
1.3) .
2
2.1
2.2
2.3

2.4
2.5

7-59

2.6
2.7
2.8

( 3 )
2.1) .
2.2) .
2.3)
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5

( 3 )
3.1) .
3.2) .
3.3) .
4

4.1
(Unipolar World)
(Multipolar World)

7-60

4.2
4.3

4.4

4.5

( 3
)
4.1) .
4.2) .
4.3) .
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5

( 3
)
5.1) .

7-61

5.2) .
5.3) .

7-62

 3 20

5 ( 2)

20

3 20
( 5 )

7-63

4 20



(Uncertain Factors) (Surprise) 2
3
(Breakthrough Technology)

20
(Impact Level)
20
4
20
7-64

1
1.1
1.2 ( )
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8

( 3
)
1.1)
1.2)
1.3)
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4

2.5

7-65

2.6
2.7



( 3
)
2.1)
2.2)
2.3)
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
, GMO
3.4
3.5 /

3.6

( 3
)
3.1) .
3.2) .

7-66

3.3)
4

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5

4.6
4.7
4.8

4.9
4.10
4.11

4.12

4.13

7-67

4.14

( 3
)
4.1)
4.2)
4.3)
5

5.1
5.2

5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9

5.10

7-68

5.11
5.12



( 3
)
5.1) ..
5.2) ..
5.3) .

5 20

2 3
20 3 1)

2)

3)
7-69




3 ( 4)

20
5 20
( 3 )

7-70

7-71

 2

( 1)

...

....

2 1

1 2
1.
3 1) 2) 3)
(Median) (Interquartile Range)

4.5-5

3.5-4.49

2.5-3.49

1.5-2.49

1-1.49

7-72

7-73

2. 2

1
(Interquartile Range)
(Median)

3. ()
3.1

3.2
()
4.
1
1
2 (
1 2)

()
1 20


1


o
o
()
1
2 ()

7-74

 1
20

1.1
1.2

1.3
1.4
(
)
1.5
1.6
/

2
2.1

2.2

2.3

7-75

()

2.4
2.5


2.6

2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10/

3
3.1

3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
GPS, GPRS,
3.7
7-76

()

4.1


4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5
/

/

4.6

/
5

7-77

()

()

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4
5.5

2 20

1


o
o
()
1
2 ()

7-78

 2
20

1.1
1.2 (
)
1.3

1.4
1.5
1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.10

7-79

()

2
2.1

2.2
2.3

2.4

2.5
2.6
2.7

2.8

2.9

3
3.1
7-80

()

3.2

3.3

, GMO

3.4

3.5
/

3.6

3.7

4.1

4.2

7-81

()

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6
4.7

4.8

4.9

4.10
4.11

4.12

7-82

()

4.13

4.14

5


5.1

5.2

5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6

5.7

7-83

()

5.8

5.9

5.10

5.11

5.12

5.13

5.14 /

7-84

()

 8
3

20

8-1

1.
1.
1.1
20
1.2 (Emerging Issues)
20
1.3 (Strategic Issues)
20
2.
3-28 .. 2555
3.

2 97 5
1) 2) 3) 4)
5) 1)
2) 3) // 4) 5) 6)

4.

(Delphi Method)





5.

5.1 3
4
1)


8-2

2) 1



20 98
11 2555
3) 1 2

20 93 28 - 31
2555
4) 2
20 28 2555
77

3

5.2
3 3
1) ()
20
2) (Emerging Issues)
20
3) () (Strategic Issues)
20
6.
2 1) 2)

8-3

7.
7.1
2 (Median)
(Interquartile Range; IQR)

1)
3

4.50-5.00

3.50-4.49

2.50-3.49

1.50-2.49

1.00-1.49

2)
(Interquartile
Range; IQR) IQR = Q3-Q1 1.5

8-4

7.2

20


(IQR 1.5)

(Median = 4.50 - 5.00) (Median = 3.50 4.49)

20

(IQR 1.5)

(Median = 4.50 - 5.00)
(Median = 3.50 4.49)

2 3
1. 20

8-5

2. (Emerging Issues)

20

20
1)
(IQR 1.5) 2)
(Median = 4.50 - 5.00) (Median =
3.50 4.49) 1
1
20

No.
1.

20

1)

2)

(Low Carbon Society)

3)

(Green Economy)

4)

5)

(Cradle to Cradle)

2.

20

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

3.

20

8-6

No.
1)

2)

3)

4)

4.

20

1)

2)

( )

5.

20

1)

2)

3)

6.

20

1)

(Environmental Education)

2)

Green GDP,

3)

4)

8-7

1)


2)

3)
(Environmental Education)

3. (Strategic Issues)

20

20
1)
(IQR 1.5) 2)
(Median = 4.50 - 5.00)
(Median = 3.50 4.49) 3)
2
2
20
No.

1.

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

(Sustainable lifestyles & education)

8-8

No.

6)

7)

8)

9)

10)

11)

(Green Job)

2.

1)

2)

3)

4)

3.

1)

2)

3)

4)

4.

1)

2)

3)

4)

5.

1)

8-9

No.

2)

3)

6.

1)

2)

3)

(optimal scale) Subsidiarity (

)

7.

1)

2)

(Environmental Education)

3)

4)

5)

Infographic, Videographic, Facebook, Twitter

6)

8.

(Agenda
setting)

1)

(Strategic Environmental Assessment: SEA)

2)

Green GDP , (Natural

Accounting)
(Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs)

3)

(Green Tax)

8-10

No.

(PES) (Green Conditional Cash Transfer )

4)

(Public Environmental Expenditure Review: PEER)

5)

6)

(Green Policy Bank)

(

)

3
20
() 20

3
3
20

()

Median

IQR

4.333

1.251

8-11

4 (Emerging Issues)

2
1. 20

4
20
No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

1.

20

1.1

4.616

0.907

4.535

0.988

1.2

(Low
Carbon Society)

4.535

0.988

4.197

1.377

1.3

(Green
Economy)

4.522

0.978

3.830

1.392

1.4

4.197

1.377

4.317

1.224

1.5

(Cradle to Cradle)

3.831

1.392

4.616

0.907

8-12

8-13

2.

20
5

20
No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

2.

20

2.1

4.6292

0.876

3.915

1.441

2.2

4.5402

0.983

3.984

1.355

2.3

4.3171

1.224

4.224

1.246

2.4

4.2821

1.293

4.127

1.309

2.5

4.2949

1.406

3.808

1.241

2.6

4.2727

1.270

3.783

1.324

3. 20

6
20

No.

Median

8-14

IQR

Median

IQR

3.

20

3.1

4.6517

0.854

4.129

1.285

3.2

4.6163

0.901

4.103

1.351

3.3

4.4286

1.160

3.621

1.423

3.4

4.4000

1.240

3.537

1.443

4.0909

1.526

3.515

1.511

3.5

4. 20

7 20
No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

4.

20

4.1

4.3875

1.219

4.045

1.342

4.2

(
)

4.3117

1.324

3.900

1.461

8-15

5. 20

8 20

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

5.

20

5.1

4.5814

0.930

3.923

1.538

5.2

4.2987

1.282

3.691

1.349

5.3

4.2152

1.251

3.648

1.335

8-16

6. 20

9 20

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

6.

20

6.1

(Environmental Education)

4.6353

0.894

3.548

1.563

6.2

Green GDP,

4.4167

1.124

3.591

1.416

6.3

4.3902

1.210

3.356

1.590

6.4

4.3291

1.264

3.725

1.327

(Strategic Issues)
20

20 2
(Focus Group) 4
( 1)
1.

8-17

 (Resource Decoupling) (Impact

Decoupling)

8-18

 10 ()

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

1.

1.1

4.753

0.753

4.627

0.904

1.2

4.647

0.874

4.489

1.095

1.3

4.640

0.865

4.413

1.202

1.4

4.593

0.930

4.425

1.180

1.5

(Sustainable lifestyles &
education)

4.593

0.936

4.387

1.341

1.6

4.565

0.965

4.338

1.253

1.7

4.547

0.977

4.397

1.338

1.8

4.518

1.063

4.311

1.343

1.9

4.432

1.099

4.160

1.269

8-19


No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

1.

1.10

4.413

1.230

4.079

1.528

1.11

(Green Job)

4.269

1.290

4.030

1.385

8-20

2.

11 ()

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

2.

2.1

4.713

0.805

4.544

1.014

2.2

4.697

0.809

4.526

1.071

2.3

4.644

0.874

4.513

1.092

2.4

4.652

0.854

4.506

1.064

8-21

3.
12 ()

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

3.

3.1

4.775

0.730

4.671

0.847

3.2

4.625

0.892

4.458

1.138

3.3

4.402

1.196

4.203

1.306

3.4

4.346

1.235

4.015

1.324

4.
13 ()

No.

Median

IQR

4.

4.1

4.635

8-22

0.894

Median

IQR

4.500

1.090

4.2

4.621

0.891

4.488

1.048

4.3

4.435

1.122

4.213

1.253

4.4

4.263

1.287

4.044

1.317

8-23

5.
14 ()
No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

5.

5.1

4.436

1.227

4.132

1.361

5.2

4.329

1.240

4.097

1.330

5.3

4.317

1.294

4.056

1.326

6.
15 ()

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

6.

6.1

4.663

0.861 4.524 1.026

8-24


6.2

4.588

0.941 4.468

1.167

6.3

4.585 0.957 4.392

(optimal
scale)
Subsidiarity (


)

1.317

7.
16 ()

No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

7.

7.1

4.686

0.815

4.573

0.957

7.2

(Environmental Education)

4.644

0.868

4.543

1.000

7.3

4.722

0.778

4.539

1.063

8-25


No.

Median

IQR

Median

IQR

7.

7.4

4.621

0.897

4.440

1.276

7.5

4.524






Infographic, Videographic,
Facebook, Twitter

1.025

4.307

1.314

7.6

4.518

1.025

4.301

1.362

7.7

(Agenda setting)

4.469

1.174

4.292

1.500

7.8

(Strategic Environmental Assessment:
SEA)

4.415

1.220

4.219

1.344

7.9

4.447

1.129

4.164

1.310

8-26


No.

Median

IQR

7.

Median

IQR

Green GDP, (Natural
Accounting)

(Sustainable Development Goals,
SDGs)

7.10

(Green
Tax)
(PES)
(Green Conditional Cash
Transfer)

4.500

1.060

4.119

1.408

7.11

4.402



(Public Environmental Expenditure
Review: PEER)

1.218

4.114

1.343

7.12

4.382

1.329

4.062

1.479

7.13

(Green 4.000

1.479

3.631

1.489

8-27


No.

Median

7.

Policy Bank)

8-28

IQR

Median

IQR

20

( 1)


.
. .
3
1. 1-3
1 2
1) 20

2) 20
3
1) 20
2) (Emerging Issues)
20
3) (Strategic Issues)
20

()

8-29

 1
20
20
20 28 2555
77

2 (Emerging Issues)

20

1.

20

1.1

(Green Economy)

1.2

8-30

(Cradle to Cradle)
1.3

1.4

(Low Carbon Society)

1.5

1)
..
2)
..
3)
..

2.

20

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

1)
..

8-31

2)
..
3)
..
3.

20

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

1)
2)
3)

4.

20

4.1

( )

4.2

1)

8-32

2)
3)
5.

20

5.1

5.2

5.3

1)
2)
3)

6.

6.1

Green GDP,

6.2

6.3

6.4

(Environmental Education)

20

1)
2)
3)

8-33

7.

20

1)
2)
3)

8-34

 3 (Strategic Issues)
20

20
2 (Focus Group) 4

( 1)
1.


(Resource Decoupling) (Impact Decoupling)
No.

1.

(Resource
Decoupling)

(Impact Decoupling)

1.1

1.2

1.3

(Green Job)

1.4

1.4

1.5

8-35

No.

1.6

1.7

1.8

(Sustainable
lifestyles & education)

1.9

1.10

1)
2)
3)

2.

No.

2.

8-36

No.

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

1)
2)
3)

3.
No.

8-37

No.

3.

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

1)
2)
3)

4.
No.

4.

4.1

8-38

No.

4.2

4.3

4.4

1)
2)
3)

5.
No.

5.

5.1

5.2

8-39

No.

5.3

1)
2)
3)

6.
No.

6.

6.1

6.2

6.3

8-40

No.

(optimal
scale)

Subsidiarity
(

)

1)
2)
3)

7.
No.

7.

7.1

(Environmental
Education)

7.2

Green GDP ,

(Natural
Accounting)

(Sustainable

8-41

No.

Development Goals, SDGs)

7.3

(Agenda
setting)

7.4

(Green Tax)

(PES)

(Green Conditional Cash
Transfer)

7.4

Infographic,
Videographic,
Facebook, Twitter

7.5

(Green Policy Bank)

7.6

8-42

No.

7.7

7.8

(Public
Environmental
Expenditure Review: PEER)

7.9

(Strategic
Environmental
Assessment: SEA)

7.10

7.11

7.12

1)

8-43

No.

2)
3)

8. 1-7
No.

8.1
8.2
8.3

8-44

()

9-1



: 8 2555 B

(.)
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)




( 1) ()

()

.

. .

8 2555 08.30 13.30 .
B Lobby

9-2

1.


2020 (Post-2020
Climate Change Regime) ( )
- (Effective)
(Equity)
-
(Pledge / Bottom-up Approach)
- (Climate Change
Global Agreement) (Regional
/Bilateral Agreement) (Unilateral Measures)
(Bilateral Agreement)

.. 2554

(PES)

( )
15


( )

( )



2.

9-3

(1)
(Multi-level
Governance)
(Non-state actors) (NGOs) (
) (Global Agreement)
(DOHA Round)

(ASEAN) G77+ (
)
Multi-level Governance

2 Globalization Interaction

Global Agreement

New MEAs ?
WTO Doha Round ?
ASEAN ?
Regional Integration
Regional
G77 + China ?
FTA
Level

National Level

Non-state Actors :
Sub-National Level
, NGOs
Global
Level

(2)
( )

( Sustainable
Development 1.0) 1992 (

) 1995 (WTO)
( ,
/
) 2
2012


( Sustainable
9-4

Development 2.0)
(Painting the Neo Liberalism Green)
(Nagoya protocol)
6

: Sustainable Development 2.0

Green Economy
in context of
Sustainable
Development

Sustainable
Development

Environment

Social
Economic

Rio+20 : New Paradigm Painting the Neo-liberalism Green ?

New Paradigm : . ?

Multi-level Governance
2 Globalization

Interaction

Global Agreement

New MEAs ?
WTO Doha Round ?

Global
Level

Regional Integration
FTAs : WTO Plus , MEAS Minus

Regional
Level
National Level
Sub-National Level

9-5

2 Globalization Interaction & Multi-level Globalization

:

Deregulation + Re-Regulation
4

MEAs
5

WTO

National
Legislation

MEAs
WTO

FTAs
3

WTO-Plus
MEAs-Minus

FTAs

(Well-being)
( )


(1) /
(2)
(Public-Private-Partnership) (3)
(Green Technology) (4)
(PES) . .
6 PES
.
(5)
(6)
Resource Decoupling Impact Decoupling (7)



9-6

.. 2554

( )



5

/ ( )

( ) (1) (
WTO: ) /

(2) ( ,
(MEAs),
SEA HIA SIA)( ) (3)
(Non-state Actor)

(
)
15

( )

(
)

700
(zoning)
9-7


( )



0.96 1
0.4-0.6





100
( )
30

1 50





(
1,800 / 1 /)

1:

(Resource Decoupling) (Impact
Decoupling)

9-8

 Green Economy
(Resource Decoupling)




Green Economy Green Building
(Green Transportation)

( ) ( )
2:

Natural Resource Management Sustainable Resource (
)

3:
Zero-Waste Society
( )
4:

Climate Change Management carbon footprint

0.96
0.4


( )
5:
9-9

 Environmental Governance
4
1) (
) 2) 3)
Ego-concept 4) (Recycle)
6:

Engagement to Governance ( )

2550 ( )
& 1 2

3 1) State Property Scheme 2)
Common Property Scheme MEAs, 3) Private Property Scheme
WTO/FTA 1 3 ( )
( )

0

7:

(Missing Link)
20
20





1

2540

9-10

/








( )

/

( )

PES




Environmental Service
(charges) PES
( )

9-11

-
-
-
-
-

.. 2560- 2579 (

9-12

..
.


60/1 7 6
10400 0-2265-6500 0-2265-6511