Νέα Κοινωνιολογία 34

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Wendell Bell Eleonora Barbieri Masini Reimon Bachika Enric Bas Alberto lo Presti
Gildardo Martinez Anita Rubin Jari Kaino-Oja Javier Medina Vasquez Markku Wilenius
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NEW SOCIOLOGY 34
HELLENIC SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
2nd PERIOD
15th YEAR SPRING 2002

PAPAZISSIS PUBLISHERS
DIRECTORS
Meletis E. Meletopoulos
tel: (0030 10) 6812723, fax: 6851391
Elias Tempelis
Ogdoi Odos 3, 152 36 Penteli, Greece
tel: (0030 10) 8040344 - fax: 8049083
EDITORIAL BOARD
Iakovos Aktsoglou, sociologist-historian Christos Vroustis,

jurist Neda Kanellopoulou, jurist-constitutional law
Alexandros Kontos, linguist-jurist-philologist Spyros
Koutroulis, economist Athina Liapi, sociologist Ioannis
Mathioudakis, philologist Georgios P. Malouchos, political scientist Christina-Panagiota Manolea, philologist
Christos A. Baloglou, historian of economy Christos
Paizis, filologist Ioannis Papadopoulos, political scientist,
Professor of the University of Lausanne Kostas Stamatopoulos, historian Nikolas Christakis, social psychologist
BOOK-REVIEW EDITOR
Christos A. Baloglou
TRANSLATOR
Vangelis Douvaleris
PROOF-READING
Ioannis Mathioudakis
ART DIRECTOR
Euterpi Trimi
PRICE: 6
Contents
Editorial ...............................................................................
Memories from Panagiotis Kondylis .......................................
Odysseas-Karolos Klimis .......................................................
SPECIAL ISSUE ON FUTURES STUDIES

Reimon Bachika-Eleonora Barbieri Masini: Futures Studies
and Sociology........................................................................ 14
Wendell Bell: The Sociology of the Future and the Future of
Sociology............................................................................... 17
Eleonora Barbieri Masini: Futures Studies and Sociology: a
Debate, a Critical Approach and a Hope............................... 33
Enric Bas: The Sociology of the 21st Century; or How to be
Ready for Facing the Future ................................................. 40
Alberto Lo Presti: The Logical Exchange between Futures
Studies and Social Sciences .................................................. 47
Gildardo Martinez: Futures Studies and Sociological Theory:
a Symbiotical Relationship?................................................... 56
Anita Rubin and Jari Kaivo-Oja: Towards a Futures-oriented
Sociology............................................................................... 60
Javier Medina Vsquez: Futures Studies and Social Sciences. 81
Markku Wilenius: Tales of Transition: Futures Studies and
Sociological Explanation........................................................ 95
DESIGNER
Panos Skopelitis
TYPE-SETTING
Angeliki Koutsoukou
Mauromichali 57, 106 80 Athens,
tel: (0030 10) 3614847
LEGAL ADVISOR
Christos Vroustis
SUBSCRIPTIONS
P.O. BOX 63535, Filothei 152 02, GREECE

tel: (0030 10) 6812723, fax: 6851391
PUBLISHER
Papazissis AEBE
Nikitara 2 & Emm. Benaki, 106 78 Athens
tel: (0030 10) 3822496 - 3838020
fax: 3809150
5
8
10
Meletis Meletopoulos: Spyros Markezinis................................

Christos Paizis: K.G. Kariotakis ............................................
Filippos Nikolopoulos: The dynamics of the theoretical convergence in sociology and the contemporary Left ........................
Dimitrios Poulakos: The Atlantic order as a second rate equation...
Smaragda Christidou: The delay of youngster's professional
integration and the crisis of the social category of youth ........
Friedrich Nietzsche: Introduction to the study of the Platonic
dialogues. Translation: Vangelis Douvaleris ...........................
Thucydides III, 37-48: Orations of Kleon and Diodotos. Translation: Vangelis Douvaleris....................................................
111
132
139
142
148
157
161
BOOK REVIEWS: Eustathios Christofilos, Christos Baloglou,

Antonis Karvounis, Spyros Koutroulis .................................... 169
The New Sociology is published biannually. Price 6.

Subscriptions:
Individuals 12, Students 9, Institutions 30.
Spyros Koutroulis: The transformations of Stelios Ramfos ...... 182

The habits of Mr. Nikos Marantzidis' student life .............. 189
What does the Society of Greek Sociologists want from NEW
SOCIOLOGY ............................................................................ 190
ISSN 1105-8099
Spyros Koutroulis: Greece and her allies............................... 192
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a A A ,
T, \ \ A
. _ A V T , t r T A A A
T .
T V
Michel Godet (Godet, 1991) A
, A A A C V . T V Futures
Survey Michael Marien (_ Ar
A
).
, , V
T
Ar, A' U, T T A
A
, A, A' U, T A.
A ,
A, t
A X V Tr u T u . , A C a ,
T A _ A A A t r T , A
A t r A
T .
, @
, A \ @

, T r T\
T T T. , Wendell Bell
C, a A
C, V A
. , A A . , y A Tr,
\ ,
a A a .
y _ T U
, r Ar T ,
C -
, T u T T , t r, ,
. C, t _ t A A, T A r.
A , V
t , V -. A C A
\ \
(1998),
\ \ . T C T A -
39
,
A A ,
_ A T\ , , .
@ T
T , A A
C , , A A A,
V \ , .
, @ u , T
, A
.
Barbieri Masini, E. (1993) Why Futures Studies?, London, Grey Seal, pp. 18-19, 55.
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21 s
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21
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45
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). T T T , r .
\ Ar
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, y A A ,
V , , y _ T T
' U A _ T
r \ .
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ENRIC BAS
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Alberto lo Presti
T
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.
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,
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s () C _- ,
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r
Alberto Lo Presti y \ \ \
\ \ T.
, 34, 2002, . 47-55
48
A .
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r a U.
\ \ t\ Ar, , A
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U
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A,
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A@ , A Eleonora Barbieri Masini
(. C), _ A
r A
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C .
A A \ , A ,
T A, A C.
A y _ A
, y
r t C A T. A
A A
, _ T@ A A
(E. Barbieri Masini
1993, . 6-10).
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Ar X V, r \ T (...). y A , T@
A T . V, t T T-
ALBERTO LO PRESTI

A A A , A V (W. Bell 1997,
. , . 2).
, t
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A (E. Ortegon,
J.E. Medina Vasquez 1997, . 9).
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@ _ Ar
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r A T C, T y
A C.
Hempel
A- V T -t T\. , A 1942, X
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49
(...) A
(1) (
) ( , t t a ) (2)
( , t \
). , _ \ T\ y T U (. ., . 38).
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.).
A, _ A Hempel e T. A
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Norwood Russell Hanson , .
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t T s, _ ,
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T (explanandum) y T
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50
C. \ A A _ , , y A (
T) Keppler _ y T A
_ ... ,
T _ T @
\ , \ A A (. ., . 13). u s A, A Feyerabend,
A \ \ \ .
1959, X \ U (N.R. Hanson
1959), Hanson T V U t \ T r A
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. \ \ e T r
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1935 Yukawa U \ ^ , r X
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Powell A (pion),
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T \ , A
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e A, s X r _
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13). , r,
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r V. T e A A
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T \ t r A T. C ,
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). Toulmin r
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A (S. Toulmin 1961,
s. . 1985, .35).
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T\ T
V . C, T ,
A John Dewey, Ar
A V . a \. A' , _ A r,
T , T U A-
51
T V (J. Dewey 1939).

_ r Dewey, U \ . A \ \ \ \ , A A T\ .

_ A
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\ . T A-
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von Wright, T \ A \ @ A
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A
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52
. T T V \
T @ T\ \
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Wright, X r V
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u T\ A
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ALBERTO LO PRESTI
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s\ \ \), r T @ A @,
r _ T T r A y U\: 1) A , 2)
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., . 61) X
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T
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U A: y A X , r y _ A \ A, ' T _ @ A . A y
_ A , , A \ \, \ \, \
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53
A \ s _ Ar X y V V de Jouvenel L'
art de la conjecture ( \ s).
\
T
Ar T\. s , r Tr r ,
A T
t
. A
, A .
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A @ T A, T r y, A (...)
y X A
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s. ., 1967, . 31).
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C, , r A , A T T \ \ . T r ,
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B A. r, A T \
T A, y X y \
\ \ A, T A B A.
, t
54
A ,
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t
19 s A X u . 1857 Johann Gustav Droysen A t
A ^
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A T, A Ar A \ V (...) _ A e
t s t . e A T . T A \ \
@. e X A
(J.G.
Droysen 1857, s. . 1994, . 87).
C, T \
t T V V A r A r
A . T sr
r t (. ., .
162). u . X
, A, A, A

r s .
, Wendell Bell
T t y X y T t r s T. , A T . Bell
y
, , A , _
T, T
X A . C ,
T, r _ _ A
. Bell t r r y
T-
ALBERTO LO PRESTI
(W. Bell 1997, . ,

. 169-174).
T Bell A . ' A' , _ T
s r , Popper Bergson , t r y A A (K. R. Popper 1934, s.
. 1970, .10). \ \
Ar T \ \
. , _ \ , A A
\ \ T , Bell, @ T . , r r V , T,
s T !
t ,
T, A , T
, r Bell
(A. W. Bell, . 171).
Bell V
A
A \ T\ V. Hans
Reichenbach, A A \ T\ A, A
r t C A (...)
A (H.
Reichenbach 1938, . 6-7). Reichenbach
Tr _ T Ar
(.
., . 7). , Bell T
T status ,
A r A
A \ t , T . I, _ , _ A
A _ A T r _ T a \
. , A Ar A\ .
, Bell A-
...
, T . _
A Ar T \ T , Bell A
\ t
. , A s T A , _ r r
T.
y A , ,
A r \, T , a A . -
55
\ T \ T \ T y
X V, r y T T .
, t
T, T T A A T T. t V
U @ T\ ,
X .
A 40 V A
\ . A Tr
T .
Barbieri Masini, E. (1993) Why Futures Studies?, London, Grey Seal Books.
Bell, W. (1997) Foundations of Futures Studies, Vols III, New Brundwick, NJ, Transaction Publishers.
de Jouvenel, B. (1964) L'art de la conjecture, Futuribles,
Monaco, Editions du Rocher. (Italian translation,
L'arte della congettura, Firenze, Vallecchi, 1967).
Dewey, J. (1939) Logic, the Theory of Inquiry, New
York, Henry Holt and Co. (Italian translation, Logica, teoria dell'indagine, Torino, Einaudi, 1973).
Droysen, J.G. (1857) Historik. Die Vorlesungen von 1857,
hrsg, von P. Leyh, Stuttgart, Bad Canstatt, 1977.
(Italian translation, Istorica, Napoli, Guida, 1994).
Ferrarotti, F. (1995) Max Weber. Fra nazionalismo e
democrazia, Napoli, Liguori.
Feyerabend, P.K. (1965) Problem of empriricism, in
Colodny, R. (ed.), Beyond the Edge of Certainty,
Englewood Cliffs, Prentice-Hall. (Italian translation, I problemi dell'empirismo, Milano, Lampugnani Nigri, 1971).
Hanson, N.R. (1959) On the symmetry between explanation and prediction, The Philosophical Review,
Vol. LXVIII, pp. 349-58.
Hempel, C.G. (1942) The function of general laws in
history, The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. XXXIX,
pp. 35-48.
Lasswell, H.D. (1967) Projecting the future. Paper for
a Meeting of the Yale Collegium on the Future, 25
September.
Medina Vasquez, J.E. and Ortegon, E. (1997) Prospectiva construccin social del futuro, Santiago de Cali,
Universidal del Valle, Instituto Latinoamericano y
del Caribe de Planificatin Econmica y Social
(ILPES), Naciones Unidas.
Popper, K.R. (1934) Logik der Forschung, Wien, Julius
Springer. (English translation, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, London, Hutchinson, 1959; Italian
translation, Logica della scoperta scientifica, Torino, Einaudi, 1970).

Prigogine, I. (1986) Irreversibility e instability nei sistemmi complessi, in Prigogine, I. et al. (eds), Termodinamica, energia: il nuovo paradigma, Prometheus,
Rivista internazionale di politica della scienza, Vol.
3, Milano, Angeli.
Prigogine, I. (1993) Le leggi del caos, Roma-Bari, Laterza.
Reichenbach, H. (1938) Experience and Prediction,
Chicago, The University of Chicago Press.
Toulmin, S. (1961) Foresight and understanding. An
enquiry into the aims of science, Daedalus, The
Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Boston, MA, Summer 1977. (Italian translation, Previsione e conoscenza. Una indagine sugli
scopi della scienza, Roma, Armando, 1982).
von Wright, G.H. (1971) Explanation and Understanding, New York, Cornell University Press. (Italian
translation, Spiegazione e comprensione, Bologna, il
Mulino, 1988).
Weber, M. (1904) Die Objektivitt sozialwissenschaftlicher und sozialpolitischer Erkenntnis,
Archiv fur Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, Vol.
XIX, pp. 22-87. (Italian translation, L'oggettivit
conoscitica della scienza sociale e della politica
sociale, Il metodo delle scienze storico-sociali,
Torino, Einaudi, 1958).
Weber, M. (1917) Der Sinn der Wertfreiheit der
soziologischen und Ekonomischen Wissenschaften,
Logos, Vol. VII, pp. 40-88. (Italian translation, Il
significato dell'avalutativit nelle scienze sociologiche e economiche, Il metodo delle scienze storico-sociali, Torino, Einaudi, 1958).
Wright Mills, C. (1959) The Sociological Imagination,
New York, Oxford University Press. (Italian translation, L'immaginazione sociologica, Milano, il Saggiatore, 1995).
:
;
Gildardo Martinez
r , t B A, A t r U .
C T A _ ,
, t r A A , T t A B A A T, _
' Ar s A, T s \ T T .
T, r A, T
A Baudrillard A \ t*:
1. , ;
2. , u ;
3. u V T
, a ;
s
t A t T\, s
_ , y
A A \
T A ,
A
T,
T
, T A A ,
, A,
r, A , _ V T (Sonntag and Yero 1992).
t A r T C, U
T \ .
t r, s _ ,
* .: La Illusion Del Fin Baudrillard A \ t U\:

, '80, A \ T, _ \ t \ A . \ t, y _ r , _ \ \
. s . - \ T\
T (...). , A _ \
\ , @ A A X r, u @ .
s . \ t @ A r A. Ar \ . C, . C
, . , y C \ t. A A\, X A A \ , _ , V , A T r , @ \
T A\.
Gildardo Martinez \ Julia, Marakaibo \ .

, 34, 2002, . 56-59
T , \ \
\ \ , T
A,1 _ @ T .

T
\ A@ s , T @ X , A Ar
A \ A
\ .
t T\ V
A T ,
.2 , t T , _ ,
s , \ t,
A ,
T \ s. Mires:
, _ Ar \ A , T s , V

@ \ _ X - -t (Mires
1993, . 8).
t T @
T: C, y
\ ;
r _ A A _ V A; y \ T ;
,
T , T ,
A , A _ t A T, _ . X , V, C . _ Tr r
A A _ \ A
57
, r, A
\ ,
Quijano , T r A \ , t r, , A T u
(Quijano 1988).
, _ V t
, V Tr a T s \ A \ ,
T
, t r
. A
, _ V T r C V
U V s.
A _ V X , @ ,
@ \ T
A ,
(Capra 1985 A Lander
1995). , , , A.
Ar
\ V V T,
A .
: , A s T T A , y Ar _
A @ \, _ , . t s A
, X A r T
, T' A . , , Ar a . , Ar
r r Ar T, A V T A. '
, A
.3
T Botkin (Botkin 1979
Barbieri 1992, . 3) \
T \ :
58
T
_ T @ X , A , \ A \, A . ,
Ar X A
, T . @
T U (...), A
y \
\ X y u
.
u , Bernardo Sorj \ \ A \. r
(Sorj 1991). ,
T y ,
A y Tr r A (McHale 1969 Barbieri 1992).
r Ar t ,
@ ,
X @ . X
@ T t A y , A U r4. _ @ r A T _
V T \ ,
y t T @ A, C y T
A s T u -
GILDARDO MARTINEZ
T\
A.
T A, ' T
, y _ T .

T A u, A T
, A A
\ .
t a t
A ; X A , _ \ ; u continuum T ;
u ; r
Tr T T \ \ A, _ A \ t (Baudrillard 1992) y _ s
\ U ;
T ;
t T\
A u A,
_ T
, V _
\ C A.
1. , t T T T A t A , T T , t r . C , y _ T U
_ A. \ T, T \
A\ , e y \ \ t.
A t , -
y s, , T T
\ (Espinal 1995, . 95).
2. Henrique Cardoso _ s r
U T .
s, T @ T
A T . t A A , _ . -

, A . : A T Ar . t A B _ C (...)
_ A A
A U , , \
. A y A . T t @
U u (Cardoso 1995,
. 23).
3. C, y _ s u
A ,
59
\ \ \, A C \ T\. , r e _
, A s
U . , V A \
\ t \ A
T : .
4. Quijano A t T\, A A , A

, ...A \ V A
t s \ T... (Quijano
1988, 112).
Barbieri Masini, E. (1993) Why Futures Studies? London, Grey Seal Books.
Baudrillard, J. (1992) La ilusin del fin. La huelga de
los acontecimientos, Barcelona, Anagrama.
Cardoso, F. (1995) El pensamiento socioeconmico
Latinoamericano. Las ultimas cuatro dcadas,
Revista Nueva Sociedad, Vol. 139, pp. 19-25.
Espinal, R. (1995) Amrica Latina: la visin de los
cientistas sociales, Revista Nueva Sociedad (Central Issue: Amrica Latina: la visin de los cientistas sociales), Vol. 139, pp. 60-164.
Lander, E. (1995) Amrica Latina: historia, identidad,
tecnologia y futuros alternativos posibles, in Lander, E. (ed.), El limite de la civilizacin industrial.
Perspectivas latinoamericanas en Torno al postdesarrolo, Caracas, Nueva Sociedad.

Mires, F. (1993) El discurso de la Miseria o la Crisis de la
Sociologia en Amrica Latina, Caracas, Nuera Sociedad.
Quijano, A. (1988) Notas sobre los problemas de la
investigacin social en Amrica Larina, Cusdernos
del CENDES, Vol. 9, pp. 110-119.
Sonntag, H. and Yero, L. (eds) (1992) Procesos Sociales
en marcha: la nueva utopia necesaria, Gran Programa I de UNESCO en Amrica Latina y el
Caribe, Caracas, UNESCO-Nueva Sociedad.
Sorj, B. (1991) Crisis social y crisis de las ciencias
sociales en Brasil, Revista Mexicana de Sociologia,
Vol. LIII, pp. 107-120.

Anita Rubin Jari Kaino-Oja
s: A \

V r , , t r T
(. .. Bauman 1998, Beck 1992,
1996, Giddens 1991, Castells 1996, 1997,
1998 .). t T
, s, , A A r. y Tr
, _ , t , _
T \ , _ A \ , _ s s _ A \
s\ .
A \ \ \
y ' Ar _ , _ , _
_ \ \.
\ s .
, A V , , , y , - V : s , , , , , A
T. - X T A: T ,
A. @
A
X y -s .
y \ T \
\ ; t T\ A
A, T a A . r r
B V r A-
Anita Rubin y T Turku \

. T , , . .
A T , Ur A A
. A y r
. T \ \ V \ T T. t s , _ V s ,_ \ \ , _ V \ , _ A , t _ A A T T \ Anita Rubin.
Jari Kaivo-Oja School of Economics and Business Administration Turku ().
, 34, 2002, . 60-80

U \ \ \ (Campbell
1998). Wallerstein (1998)
t , T Bauman (1998, . 5) Ar T T ' .
' ,
T
, r _ ' A: , _ V ' A A A \ \ (Castells
1997, . T Jokinen .C. 1998, Wilenius
1997). , A A
-s . t T T r
Tr r T a t C r t , t
V A,
.
C y r
. , , T A _ V
\ . ,
T T A s ^ r y
T \ \. , ,
' Ar , r Tr
V \ \ \ \ \ .
A,
\
A , s \ A A T. C , , r
61
y A
(Bauman 1996, . 186).
t s A A u \ A.
A \
V A T
\ ^\ T
s, A
, T T . V
T
, , V
(Borg 1996, Martikainen
Pekonen 1996). , , y A _ s. ,
Lahteenmaa (1997) T t
T T \ '60, t r A
. , , V r @ . , A
, t V T A .
y _ A T, . t
, ' A A T A , T \ \ . V
T Von Wright (1988), r V
T T , \
A. Bauman (1998, . 82-85) , t C
\ A ,
_ T, A X C \ \ A T T \ \
A \ .
a, Bauman, \ T
r
T C
62
T U A, s T A ,
\ \ .
\ A, _
T a, r ^
. e ^ , A C A A. , X A
\ \ y C , A
\, X A@ u , V A . , , _ C X
r ' A.
Castells (1996, 1997, 1998)
s , A A:
\ A@ ,
V Ar A
\ ( , Net),
r T _ A ( ). Net y
Castells 12
r A. Net r Tr u u T - . Castells (. 1, 1996, . 3), _
, \ \
, A A , T \ .
t Tr s T, T. Net T, , u A,
(. .. Vattimo 1989,
Bauman 1998, . 5). Net
(Self), t
s A
ANITA RUBIN - JARI KAINO-OJA
A A Net
.
, C
A
, A V A
.
Taylor (1991), r
^ A C. A V
r _ A
A y _ (tribes) A
^ , \
T (Maffesoli 1996, . 139). , t , A
a , Tr
Maffesoli a, A, X A .
, _ A A
Net A X
,
A A (..,
. 145-47).
t T\ A
,
A \ ^\ A \ A\ ^\. y
A
\ T\ : _ \ ; _ A T T s , s Bauman (1998, .
82) a C; T , A
\ ; A ; y t A; t C , ' T \ \
\ ;
y t
' , T Tr , A
A T A A \ \ A.
t \ \
\
\ t _ V A
V A
A A .
Giddens (1996, . 1-3, 70),
, \ \
y A U
. y T@ t , t A
_
T@ A
T \
(. T Masini 1994). Ar T \ t
\ A A ,
T , y t A A.
Bauman A
C , X
A Tr y A .
y s .
X
U \ \ \. , \ \ y A Tr
Ur A (Bauman 1997, . 15, 297-98).
, Giddens Bauman T T
r \
T V
\ , T .
Allardt (1995, 1997) T V T t T\ _
s U
A
A , A
. _ T s, ,
, -
63
V u \ , _ V T U T \.
Allardt, , Ar T
t A Tr e
\ \
V A r. ,
_ y t T V.
Touraine (1998) A _
U \ \ V \ . , T _ e A
, V . T
, , C T, , t T
C a t . V Castells,
r V A
\
: C , A , Net ()
\ A@ \ , A C. V r ,
A, A T
y t V.
, , T V
V
,
T
^ . y T C X r
a C r ,
A a \.
s V Wittgenstein ,
A T _ T A,
s \ \
T C, V
T (Wittgenstein 1992, . 6-52)
, @ Wallerstein (1998),
A A t
64
A
.
, Giddens, t T\
, ,
s A s. r V
, U A.
s V _ A
t A y A s V
U A t C, U,
V T
A T
. _ , V
, V
, T\, A C A
(Giddens 1996, . 65-77).
Wallerstein (1998) V A A : , _ A T
_ V A. - \ Tr A , t V
U X C, ,
r r U , y
_ t
(. .. Gross 1982, Giddens 1996, . 5, Bas
1998). Wallerstein _ y t X U V a T\. _ V A s a
T, , V
Giddens (1996, . 2), B A _ . , _ A \ \ ' Ar
X
, t r y r , V T V
A C (Masini 1998).
, Wallerstein (1996, 1998) s , _ T -
T V ,
y
A T\ a s T\, . Wallerstein A A , T A , \ ,
B A .
r r _
V , A \ \ \ s ' . t s
\ : y \ A
\ \ \
. t , , \ \ \ T\ T A
T
T. , , T
A \ s _ A V
\ \ . y A Tr _ \
A B\ , y y r
' a V T
A X T.
U A , Tr _
V ' Ar _
T @ U ,
\ \ \. t y s, A A,
, A A \ ,
T .
t V
\
Masini (1993) Bell
(1996),
y T, A -
T
A T , V ' A
u A T . V , t A T , ' , t
A T (, T, .) A t C.
A A T , A' A r r1
(predicted), . y _ V A X r ,
A . ' ,
T T . r r A' : , A u
.
r y V T (Bell 1997, . 174).
y . T T , V A V T .
_ y Tr A A T, Tr y Tr T T A. _ V y X A , A A
(. Amara 1981, Masini
1993).
, ,
V, X
, a A X . Masini
(1993, . 3) V T t T X
, X \
X
V , s A
A. -
65
_ V T

, .
t , T\ V, A A u , r V _
C . ,
, A
V Ar \ . C, _ , y T A s,
T _ A
, A
\ \ .
A T A u , u y A u
. (
) T@ A T ( A ) A
A V t T. A @ T@ A
, V T
s (Polak 1973, .
300). u r s .

T V y Tr
, C ,
, , ,
T, , A A A .
, T A y , A r

@ y ,
(.. Ketonen 1985). t , A
A T, A \ \.
y T
T
T A
s ,
, A, T,
A ,
, , .., T T () . ,
66
Malaska s
A (perception) (1993). ,
A
'
, t A, A Tr A A\
A\ (weak signals) r
r ' A ,
, . r
T X y \, ,2 _ T A A A
. , , _ y A. \ ' Ar V a .
\
y
, T, A , V T T A. V A r r _ A T V. Bell (1997, . 172-73) Ar , t r , t

:
A , V T A. , C T
, r . A A
T,
t ' A V (Kuusi and Grofhn 1998).
_
, T
A, t Tr .
y T\ y A T T

T T (Boulding and
Boulding 1995, . 8, Dator 1996, . 110). t

\
T\ A A T a T
.3 , Ar V, y r A T A.
T r A A
T . _ A r : A V U A V X
A \ T T\, y A y \ T\ \. t X \ T.
T
@, _ T V : ,
,
, T, V, ,
.
T V A
:
y \ V @ -A V
/ () T
y , y r, y r
y A V
y .
T V V T
, a \ \ \,
_ T A C , T
r ,
T ,
T U \
T\ .
\ T\ V-
A \ T T , /A- , \ A, T
T ,
-T, , , V s, A , A , A \ T, ,
, T, T C A T, \
, (a ), \ A, s
T, , V , u , .
, r \ T\ V y U\:
1. A T\ @ A@
T u V Ar X @.
2.
() \ V, ,
,
A _ / () .
3. () A V,
() A@ y a , y r
y r.
' Wallerstein (1996) T T\4, A
T V T. t
V y B
a . , t
T , t , , A Tr a .
, s \ A @
(), s (s T),
(), -
67
( T\) . y r t , t ,
y A A
, s, , s \ \ \ T\ ,
-T .
y _ A
T\ (risk sociology): _ A Ar
T, _ T
A (. .. Beck 1992).
A y X C
: t A A, _
C T , _ s, _ s, _
s, _ , _ .
V Polak (1973), A t
s , X : T
r \ T, V T s .
t y X s , Ar T T C r
A@ .
^:
;
A \ T\ y _ A
A ,
. , _
A T , A
A A
C, T. V A
y X T
, .
, A
_ A ,
^
68
, A\, A A . t
Ur \
r , A,
y V A
, V @, B@, . T \ ^ \ A A '
A
, , C
A r Net (. Castells
1996). T A A \ T\,
A.
A T
A V y, , A r .
A r Ar

Ur \ ,
V
U.
, V
t
a A ,
r A A
s t s a a \
.

T\, _ \
^ a \ ^\ T
_ V T \ T T A A A
\ \ \ , A T, t T V
r A.
T
A, T V s, A A. ,
T r ' A T \ \
T T. _ A A ^
-
, A, _ s V ^ A. A r y ^ A ^ V u u . , X r A r
T \ \ \ (. Taylor
1991, Hellsten 1997).
A \ \ ^\ r
r A A
A: u A T
\ A \ u A T . U r Ar , s
s \ A@
T A. C, t A
A s T
(Hellsten 1997).
Touraine (1998), _ V \ \ ^\
Ar \ : _ s \ A
A \ ,
,
e
A r a
, A V r
\ u \ . T, _
^ A y y
, a , _ A
(Kuusi 1999).
t s \
\ ^\ r A , _ T s s \ A@ \ _ C \ A r T \ A. _ A r A T,
A A
T ^ A . , _ V \ \ ^\ V A. \
^\ :
\ @ a ^
y A y
^\ y t .
y
X a \ ^\,
\ A\, _ s a ' A A . Taylor (1991)
Hellsten (1997,), ^ ^ A A A. s
A , A t r A A V, A C A .
s @ \ ^\ A@ C
r ^ t
A
/ A T.
^ A Ar ^ T
\ , r _ ^ A A. ^ X ^ y r
. , A
s, A V A
(Hellsten 1997,).
, , C '
T, y A A. ' Ar
_ A \
\ A\ U. ,
s , t C V T
@
B T
A a T, Bauman (1998, . 82).
, _ ^ V X s . C, A
A
. X
V A
A , C
T ^ A'
V A
^ s (Taylor 1991, . 37-46).
69
, , r A' A A V , A\ T.
C, T t
t , C A t A, A a
X A
T. Castells V
, Net
, , A a , sr
s A: _ \ A Ar,
C, A A, \ \, \ \ \
A (Castells 1996,
. 1, . 25).
, _ A r r
T A A .
y \ ^\
A. : _ , V \
Touraine (1998), Net A A. T U ^
C r Ar
Ar y A C .
T ^\ , V A T \ . , ^
y Net, r r a , r A A T , U, y
_ A' A . ,
u: , A
^; , A ^ ;
, , A '
; , C T Ar
A V , A r A .
, _ A \ T
A C A
70
. , _ t, u _
A A. ,
B, A (. .. Rubin 1998).
T \ A r A A A T@ r \ ^\, A T A A , s A T . C y A U A A ' , T A a
A '
. t \ , t A. ,
C A, , A r A T, T
T T. s \ A-
r r U ,
r X V
X ,
A r Tr, T A A A.
y t T T
A .
y T C
Tr, r A
s \ A- , t A y
' A . T X
@ T
, A A .
s y X A r A

. , _ T A
A
, ' T C
. U
_ T A, t
, t t .
u a , A V y _ Ar A \ \ A
T T .
y A .
- A @
T T. U A y
r T
A A T , A T r
sr .
Net, A A,
A A,
A, ' , Ar A A C A
. , , ' Ar C T Net
V, V
t . t T A , A A Net y
T V \
A . , u V
A . s
, Net r r
. r
Tr A A , .

t T _ A X y . -
X
a , V V Max Weber s
Zweckrationalitt ( )
.
Weber, _ (Abwgnung) a _ T y \ , _ (Zweckrationalitt) . C , _ T A A
T A
. Wright (1986, . 57-61), _
A. , T, A a
T ^ . A
y y . (Zweckrationalitt) V
V McLuhan
y (the medium is the
message).
A
r r A T
r _ A _ T A,
T a \ / (. .. Elster 1985). y A t T.
, t t
T T
A A T , u y u . Ar y _ T A T
r \ s.
t \ V s . ' t '
@ \ T V r T\ . T, Beck (1992, . 29-30)
_ T
s V r . t T V
71
A A , A A .
t T \
, \ , . A
, t A
A t A A
A , V T A
y A. Beck A
A , _ A y A y A y \ .

A, A .
, C,
y X \ \ .
_ C A .
, , _ C A A T . X C ,
Campbell (1998) T
r (1) \ \ \ \ T\ (2)
(situationalism). Campbell V (domain) \ y _ T
\ t A
A. Campbell
e \ -\ (types of meta-narratives), Tr r V r A
t T, A , r y \
. y
Ar _ T
\ \ \ \ V A, s, ,
72

U.
Campbell, , T t \ \ \ \ T\ s A A
T. A y B. ' y U, _ A , _ u A u T u r A r -, A r. C, , t A
V A X A A T. A V
y,
, s , A A C T
. , , _ A
y X @ A\ A\, @ ' r r
r A C (Campbell
1998).
, Campbell
e t A
\
@ . A A T , _ : (1) A T - A
Ar (2) T ' t A r X r r '
(Campbell 1998).
t , V
s T
, A r
\ A T\
, A C A Campbell. T
y
\ T\, A
. von Wright (1982) s V \ T (contingential reality), _ @ -

\ V. _ A s
, ,
A _
a T . ,
A '
u a
\ u a a T
T. r (A)
(von Wright 1982). ' s A a T T \ , _
A . V Campbell, t T

T
A . , t y X \ \ T, r r T V A .
A
T A

t y _
A _ A y T , A t u t C y V. t t A , ,
A A. , _ A
T, ,
, T \ (. .. Etzioni 1998).
, ,
A y , , T, s. T T A
A \ . t , A
a ,
, u ,
(Nurmi 1995).
, t , A , A. y V; A; y t s
A _ C; Tr ; Sayer (1994, . 189), _ A t
A y, ,
T. per
se y, , X T
a , y (transition). t Kamppinen Raivola
(1995, . 28-29) A
.
C
, A A@,
.. C A,
, . C X Ur, A ,
.
r r ; y t
\ A@
; , A, y t \

A , a A U
u ;
A ' T,
A s , r r \ A
A . y X A u y C A .
\ , t A T -
73
t A, V A,
t A .
_ A , A
A u .
T A A@ A ,
Tr T A. t A C .

. ,
t T (Kamppinen Raivola
1995, . 19-20).
Etzioni, T
/ (normativeaffective, N/A) A , r T A
T \ A @ A
A T \ \ V A
(Zweckrationalitt)
. Etzioni r , T X A y
A , _ r
A t
T r y (emotional). , a, Kuusi (1999), _ (reasonability) r r T y A A .
, X V X , A , T U
T .
Etzioni, t A T A
A, A,
T \ A. , t T X C - , V A X C T -T (logical-empirical,
L/E) .
u A
74
(. .. Inayatullab 1993). t C u
, V u
T r T (Bell 1997b).
, u
T A T ,
T. t T /, a A, a T u , T A. u T T, T U \ V A T (Zweckrationalitt),
T . t
C A T
, A r
A ,

, ,
. , _ s y X A A t A. Tr
r r .
, ' , y
X ' A A r y
, T a r .
_ y A, A, , T A @ . t T\
V A
T a r A _
C. \ \ _ T U V \ Zweckrationalitt A T y _ a _
. , _ \ A T A A a T, A t T\ T-
T
T: u y u a A _ T
T ; , U, ' t ^ \ A.
T V:
y, r y
y
t T\ , V
t s X
, r (Zweckrationalitt)
\ \ \ \ .
A ,
T V A
, A
C y
, A '
^ T A.
Ossip Flechtheim, A
T , t (a _ , u ) V V A, y
A (Flechtheim
1972). C V , y
T , A @
\ A, _ r r t X A
s , r
A A.
t , A
. T y A, s
. A _ T V T , A _
T@ A
r . Giddens (1991, . 7576, 1996, . 16) r T -
T A
. C \ . t C , A s A
A A
T \ .
, t A, T A , y A
X .
, t T
, u
u . ,
_ A T A
r r y a
, a , T a
A.
Bell (1997, . 174-79)
T A T ' t r
U T.
, _ T u A y r. ,
y t
C y ,
y a
r y a V y. t T
, A C. ,
, A, _
, A A,
r A u

X A T
. , t , A
C A V T T y
U
T .
, Bell r y V . r r U T A-
75
, A _ U
C r,
U . V r , A . , t
, t , t t @ V T ,
A, \ , _
A. , (Zweckrationalitt) X T Tr \
V.
, t T
t ,
, A T , T A
(. ..
Kahn Mentzer 1995, Mentzer Kahn
1997, Mintzberg Quinn 1996). Bell
(1997a, 1997b), A C,
r a U t r u
, U, U .
, ,
A U .
, _ T .
: r
T T;
t
V r . C , r T
A
( ) T\, Bell (1996) V t, A , V Comte, Condorcet, Marx .C. ,
T 5
r , Tr -
76
r y A. , _ ' A r
T U , T V T A
V a r A T .
y r A A T
A \ V .
Malaska (1995) V _ V
Ar A , A T
T, V, \ . t V
, ,
A A .
T V X A
a . y tr
T, T _ T A a ' Ar a
T r r s A T T.

y
X C, _ V
y A (Malaska
1995, . 79). , V Ar
.
, T A a , A \
, Ar A, , T T T .
, _ ^\
A \
sr V r A.
Bell (1996) V , T _ t A
s \ T A A, \
A\ T, V A
. _ V
, T
^ a \ T,
A A ^ C
A, T r T T\ .
\ ^\ T A Taylor (1991) :
, _ V \ T T\ s \ \ A T. ' ^ , V A y A y, ^ A C , . ^ V r \ T
Net. ' , _ T r,
.
, A@ \ , T , , V A T
,

X - \ \ \. \ \ V
C A A @
X C A
U V
.
A T\, T
a
T T\
T\ A,
_ A A
A . t , T\
V, , , a A A C T\, -
. t T A
T T , y T.
t a
A, A A A . , '
T A a A . _
, C u, a A \ . ,

y A @
T T s .
_ U Tr
y A, u
Tr e
, y V \ T\, \
A, \ . Ar
, T A, A
T . , _ s U
A ,
, A ,
u y A T U
A A (Bell 1996). _ A,
pro-activity (s \ T \, _ V- \ ), _ t _ . r, T, , A , T
A T .
s
T , ' T@
.
, _
r X A T A , A X T \
\ A @. r T\
, T , A
77
T A ' .
r T , _
sr Ar.
Alasuutari (1989, . 12-13) , T , , t , T
T' V . , _ A A
T A \ V
.
Alasuutari, ,
y V , T (1) u A _
(2) t V A,
r
. ,
s A , T,
A , y ' U a T\
A A A \ \ . , Tr
T T\,
V y T t u
t C T U , T T A, A V '
( u, . 55).
@ Giddens (1991), r
T T \ .
,
\ \ -s \ T\, V
X
A .
:
, , \
T, , T-, \ t, \ , \
T6 . r A ,
' A A T \
T . y U
r A -
78
A \ T\ , _ T y t U
.
y

A y . A T@ A T a
A , A A ^ , y u a @
. t C u , A u .
T
u y
A A , t r y-
s . T
(multi-versal) \ Tr V y r A A
y. , _ T,
A Net, A
\ T\ \ , r , _ \ , V A t C,
. t _

\ \
Tr .
1. : A r, (Oxford Advanced Learner's

Dictionary of Current English, Oxford University Press
1995, . 908). X \ , . Masini, 1993, . 54-56. T
t r T\ , _ Masini (1998)
T \ (prediction)
A V forecast foresight.
2. (tacit knowledge) y y \
y Tr . y , T, a
a T. ,
, _ A t _ y U \ \
, \ A
T\ \ ( . Polanyi 1958,
Turner 1994).
3. Malaska, t A : (1) , (2) A- , (3) A,
(4) , (5)
(6) T . t V
r \ . A A s ( . Malaska 1995, . 64-86).
4. , Wallerstein (1996) t T
' T\ ,
, C
'70. s T, _
T y r @ A
. A y A Tr. t y , A . T y _ -
B t T y
A. , t y t A , , t T\ V A T\, t T A .
Wallerstein T r _ , _ (fuzzy logic), _ , fractals ., y
U ' . t , , A () T\ T .
5. Economist (1997), , T
A y r , r T T y Tr a s T .
, , r
_ V \ he
Limits to Growth (Meadows .C., 1972), ,
T
A
'
A.
, V

, C V C .
6. Francis Fukuyama: The End of the History and
the Last Man. Jean Gimpel: The End of the Future. The
Waning of the High-Tech World ( . \ \ ).
John Horgan: The End of Science. Richard O' Brien:
Global Financial Integration ( : \ ). Kenichi
Ohmae: The End of the Nation State ( -). Jeremy Rifkin: The End of Work (
\ ).
79
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V A u
: A @ \
A
\
Javier Medina Vasquez
s T
C \ , , A@ C , _ T _

, t r A . r U r A s, \ \ \, A
u A . , C r ' _ V ,
T\,
r T, r
r X Ur A
T . t y:
T \
\ s
\
y A\ s T _ .
u y
V. V s-
, r _
\ \ \ \, _
, .
u A
V , A t r
t T\ V A
V. , _ a
V \
, , A
.
V
u
\ \ ;
r r
\, _ T
u , a A T\, _ s
A t, \ , A y
tr T. Milton Santos
(1996) y
A \ : \ U ( -
Javier Medina Vasquez y . T

Gregorian University . r \ Universidad del Valle, Cali, T u .
, 34, 2002, . 81-94
82
), \ U , t \, \
( ), _ V T. , @ T T, _ , ' T r \ A: X \ A, r s
\ \ , A T
A.
y _ '90 V r A s, A A , A A , _ A
@

A . , t T\ t T \ .
C U T :
t \ t T

( )
U \
\
(
) A
A, ,
_ A
\ T
\ A C , () T
\ ,
( A).
JAVIER MEDINA VASQUEZ
r \ \
A

\ A
T A
T
A
T,
- T A T s ,
T
, s ( A).
'90
s
A
A ,
A @
A

_ A A
T, T .
: Javier Medina Vasquez: La Globalizacion: sentomas, causas, efectos, propuestas
y desafos, Pontificia Gregoriana, Roma, Mineo,
1998.
r _ X
A
;
T \ V r @ , T t
\ U . V .
, V T, , , ,
A r A T A C, A, A u
, A , A \
s ,
A A
. C, y
\ , t , V y Tr
@ . , r
T A A A .
T s ,
y t A _
_ A
, \
T A, Ar;
r V T ,
A
, A A
, T \ \ A .,
_ , T .
, Ur
\ t T, A ,
T A\ . _ A T A , A
C, r X
s A ( \ , 1996),
T V \ A \ A,
T \ A-
(Hicks,
1997, 1998), ,
T (Masini, 1983), A /a A , A V s A T T
(Ortiz 1996), , , A
(Amin, 1997, Latouche, 1997).
, _ T, , A \ T-
83
A, T A C
, \
. C , u t A , t r y r C .
_ s, _
a , sr
A t \
u , Tr
_ T A
,
;
\ A _ A y C a .
y , A
, e , _
\ A T
(Toffler, 1990). @
A 21 s (Senge, 1997).
Ar t y Ar
t r y T. u ( A@ , ,
) u A
A
. , _
_ A A, A T T
(Lunwall, 1995). A , C
_ _
, V y
\ ;
V u

t
A
(
'50 '60), y r
_ V s (image)
84
y V A .
, Gaston Berger (1957), _ A
V A, A' ,
A,
@, a
.
Bertrand de Jouvenel (1967), _
y A T, T .
, t Fred Polak (1973) K.
Boulding V A V s
s . V Denis Gabor Robert Jungk
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Reimon Bachika - Eleonora Barbieri Masini: t

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Iakovos Aktsoglou, sociologist-historian Christos Vroustis,

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REIMON BACHIKA - ELEONORA BARBIERI MASINI

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Barbieri Masini, E. (ed.) (1983) Visions of Desirable

Bellah, R.N., Madsen, R., Sullivan, W.M., Swidler, A.

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

. Eleonora Barbieri Masini 14.

Future, Fred Polak Tr

ELEONORA BARBIERI MASINI

T a u T (Barbieri Masini, 1993, . 18-19)

ELEONORA BARBIERI MASINI

ELEONORA BARBIERI MASINI

improve or degrade predictive accuracy? How can

de Futuro en la Sociedad Espaola, Madrid, Sistema.

Boldt, M. (1993) Surviving as Indians: the Challenge of

Hanson t Adams Leverier y

T V (J. Dewey 1939).

(W. Bell 1997, . ,

translation, Logica della scoperta scientifica, Torino, Einaudi, 1970).

* .: La Illusion Del Fin Baudrillard A \ t U\:

Gildardo Martinez \ Julia, Marakaibo \ .

Perspectivas latinoamericanas en Torno al postdesarrolo, Caracas, Nueva Sociedad.

Anita Rubin y T Turku \

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1. : A r, (Oxford Advanced Learner's

Alasuutari, P. (1989) Erinomaista, rakas Watson, Johdatus yhteiskuntatutkimukseen [Splendid, dear

[Knowledge about the future], in Malaska, P. and

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Javier Medina Vasquez y . T

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T@ A t , . (. Le Moinge 1995, Lameyre

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Amara, R. (1981) The futures field. Which direction

De Jourvenel, B. (1967) L'arte della congettura, Firenze, Vallecchi.

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T \ T\ \ V (. Castells 1996-98). y ' A _ t T .