The State of the Economy as

reflected in the
Annual Report - 2013

2014 08
1

 2013 7.3
...
- 2011-2013
2011

2012()

2013()

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1.4

5.2

2.0

-1.1

7.0

10.4

4.7

10.3

10.3

10.7

10.1

8.1

10.7

9.9

8.6

4.6

4.3

6.6

7.9

6.5

6.4

...

8.2

6.3

6.0

6.8

7.8

8.2

7.3

()
()

2013
...
: 4.7%

: 19.5%
: 6.2%
: 3.6%
: 16.1%
: 9.1%

(a) Revised
(b) Provisional

: 9.9%

: 14.4%
: 11.5%
: 11.3%
: 7.9%

: 6.4%
( ) : 22.3%
: 9.4%
: 5.5%

: 3.1%


.. 3,000
...

2012

$2,922

$2,836

$2,400

$2,057
$1,241
$869

2013

$3,280

2011

2010

2009

2005

2000
4


...
2013 ...

( ): 4.7% (2012 9.2)

: 6.9% (2012 7.6)

( ): 2.1% (2012 7.6)

Year-on-year Inflation (Based on CCPI, Spliced)
35
30

Per cent

25
20
15
10
5

0
Aug-12

Jan-11

Jun-09

Nov-07

May-06

Oct-04

Mar-03

Aug-01

Jan-00

Jun-98

Nov-96

May-95

Oct-93

Aug-90

Mar-92

Jan-89

Jun-87

Nov-85

May-84

Oct-82

Mar-81

Aug-79

Jan-78

-5

2012 8.9
2013 6.7 .
5

 ...
(%)
30%

28.8%
22.7%

20%

15.2%

8.9%

10%

6.5%

0%
1995/96

2002

2006/07

2009/10

2012

: ,

2009/10 0.49 2012

0.48 .
6

8.4

8.3
7.7

8
7

6.5
6.0

Per cent

5.8
5.4
4.9

4.4

4.2

4.0

2011

2012

4
3
2
1
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2013

 2012 7.4
2013 6.4

...
(... )

( )

2012

2013

-30

(%)

-20

-10

10

20

Dec-13

2,331.5

2,581.1

10.7

30

40

13.4

Nov-13

24.7

,
Oct-13

1,411.9

1,542.2

35.2

9.2
Sep-13

12.2

Aug-13

7,371.2

7,749.4

10.8

5.1
8.2

Jul-13

,
Jun-13

3,991.1

4,508.3

13.0

859.4

887.8

3.3

284.3

235.2

-17.3

6.9

May-13

(1.5)

Apr-13

61.3

51.6

-15.9

Mar-13

(3.4)

Feb-13

(2.8)

Jan-13

9,773.5

10,394.3

(6.9)

(18.0)

6.4

2013 6.2 ...

(...)

2012

2013

( )

(%)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

10

15
%

2,995.2

3,182.5

6.3

Dec-13

Nov-13

1,304.4

1,368.1

4.9

1,690.8

1,814.4

7.3

2.1

(18.2)

Oct-13

(11.7)

Sep-13

11,577.6

10,553.7

-8.8

5,044.6

4,308.2

-14.6

Jul-13

2,266.4

2,045.8

-9.7

Jun-13

13.1

Aug-13

(15.7)

8.2

6.4

May-13

4,589.8

4,252.7

-7.3

Apr-13

2,356.0

2,221.9

-5.7

991.9

667.8

-32.7

1,237.4

1,357.2

9.7

Mar-13

19,190.2

18,002.8

5.9

(16.7)

Feb-13

Jan-13

(1.7)

(9.3)

(20.0)

-6.2

2013 ...
2012 .. 9,417
2013 .. 7,609 19.2
...

USD mn

-200

-400

-600

-800

-1,000

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

-1,200

10

 .. 6.4
7.0 ...
7,000

5,145
5,000
4,116
4,000
3,330
3,000

24.6 .

5,985

6,000

US$ mn

2013
293,105 ,
2012
3.8 .

6,407

2,918

2,000

1,000

0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

11

2013 .. 1.7
...
2013
1.27 26.7
.

2008

2013

200

85,238
81,331
30,625
31,564
10,594
9,812
19,536
15,797
952
14,053
10,075
10,258
7,885
13,030

208,795
137,416
85,470
79,474
64,388
54,288
54,252
51,235
38,607
34,690
31,505
30,926
25,336
22,281

97,725

355,930

438,475

1,274,593

.. 1,715
65.4

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,400

1,000

1,200

800

1,000

600

800
600

400

400

200
0

2009

2010
2011
Tourist Earnings

2012
2013
Tourist Arrivals (000')

Tourist Arrivals (000)

1,800

1,400

US$ mn

2,000

12

 ...

2012
..
...

2013
..
...

- 9,417

-15.9

- 7,609

-11.3

- 3,982

-6.7

- 2,607

-3.9

151.2

985.4

13

2013 ..
7.5 ...
9.0

7.0

8.0

6.0

7.0

5.0

4.0

4.0

3.0

Months

US$ bn

5.0
6.0

3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0

1.0

Gross Official Reserves (Left Axis)

* In US$

2013

Months of Imports (Right Axis)

2012
(.. )

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

0.0
2000

0.0

7,105.9
4.4

2013
7,495.3
5.0
14


2013
...
Rs./US$
140

- ..

138
136
134
132
130
128
126

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

124

2013 .. 2.75
130.75 .
..
436 .
15

...
...

2013 1,137
8.2 .

...

13.9 2013 13.1 .

( )
16
14

14.6

14.8

13.9

1.9

1.7

1.9

12

13.1
1.5

10
8
6

12.9

12.9

2010

2011

12.0

11.6

2012

2013

4
2
0

Non tax revenue

Tax revenue

16


.
(... )

2012

25

20.5 2013
19.2 .
13.9
.

...
5.5
.

21.9
20.5

20

14.9

22.9

6.1

6.2

19.2

5.6
5.3

15

10
16.7

15.7

14.9

13.9

2011

2012

2013

0
2010

Capital and Net lending

Recurrent

17

 ...
...
2013 , ... 5.9
, 5.8
.
(... )
2010

2011

2012

2013

0
-1
-2

-3
-4
-5
-6

-5.9
-6.5

-7

-6.9

-8
-8.0
-9

18


...

76 .
(... )
9

8.0

8
6.9

6.5
5.9

4.4
3.3

1.4
3.8

1.0

0.7

3
2

3.6

1
0

0.9
2.9

3.4

1.7
0.0

-1
2010
Foreign financing

2011
Domestic non bank financing

2012

2013
Domestic bank financing

19


...
...
... 2012 79.2
2013 78.3 .
(... )
90

81.9

79.2

79.2

78.3

35.6

36.5

34.1

45.8

42.9

42.7

44.2

2010

2011

2012

2013

80

70

60

36.1

50
40
30
20
10
0

Foreign

Domestic

20

2013 ...
*

- 2013

7.50%
7.00%

9.50%
9.00%

. - 2013

7.00%
6.50%

9.00%
8.50%

2013

2013
100
.

.2014

8.00%

*
2014 .

Policy Rate Corridor

Monthly AWPR

AWCMR (month-end)
AWDR

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Aug-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Oct-11

Aug-11

Jun-11

Feb-11

Apr-11

15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
Dec-10

2 8 6
.

Treasury Bill Yield (91-days)

21

2013
...
, 2012
20.2 2013 16.5
.
Year-on-Year Growth of Monetary Aggregates

24

22.9

22
20.2

20

18.3
18

16.7

16
14
12

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

10

22

2013
...
, 2012
17.6 2013
7.5 .
.
, 200
.

40

90
30

70

60.2

50

10
9.9

8.5

15.4

1.8

30

Rs. bn

33.7

10
-10

(10)

Monthly change in credit (Absolute terms)

-30

Growth of credit (y-o-y)

(20)

-50
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13

Per cent

20

23



...
2012 94
2013 73 .
.

2013
.
Monthly Change in Net Credit to the Government

Credit Obtained by Public Corporations

Monetary Authorities

Commercial Banks

24

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Sep-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Dec-11

Sep-11

Jun-11

50

Mar-11

73

Dec-10

100

Sep-10

145

150

Jun-10

198

200

Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13

Rs. bn

250

Mar-10

292

300

Dec-09

365

350

100
80
60
40
20
(20)
(40)
(60)
(80)
(100)

Rs. bn

400


...
,
.

25

 2013
...

8000

3,500

6000

2,500

5000
2,000
4000
1,500

3000

Rs.billion

3,000

1,000

2000

500

1000

Market Cap. - Rs.bn. (Right Axis)

ASPI

Nov-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Aug-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

May-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Feb-10

Sep-09

Apr-09

0
Nov-08

0
Jun-08

.. 179

.

4,000

Jan-08

2.2
2.5 .

9000

7000

Index

S&P 20
4.8 5.8
.

S&P SL 20 Index

( )

2011

2012

2013

83

1.0

12.5

69.1

26

2013
()

2014

2015

2016

2017

...

7.3

7.8

8.2

8.3

8.4

4.7

5.0

4.5

4.0

4.0

...

3,280

3,718

4,243

4,825

5,485

...

-3.9

-2.5

-0.9

0.1

0.2

..

985

1,510

2,185

2,967

3,606

..

7,495

8,251

9,883

12,349

15,693

...

-5.9

-5.2

-4.4

-3.8

-3.8

...

78.3

74.3

70.6

65.0

62.0

16.7

14.0

14.0

14.0

14.0

(M )
2b

27