CC YU T NH HNG N NH S DNG H THNG TU IN NGM METRO TI TP. HCM
LUN VN THC S KINH T
TP. H Ch Minh Nm 2012
B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH ----------------------
CHNG TRNH GING DY KINH T FULBRIGHT
NG TH NGC DUNG
CC YU T NH HNG N NH S DNG H THNG TU IN NGM METRO TI TP. HCM
Chuyn ngnh: Chnh sch cng M s: 603114
LUN VN THC S KINH T
NGI HNG DN KHOA HC TS. CAO HO THI
TP. H Ch Minh Nm 2012 i LI CAM OAN
Ti cam oan lun vn ny hon ton do ti thc hin. Cc on trch dn v s liu s dng trong lun vn u c dn ngun v c chnh xc cao nht trong phm vi hiu bit ca ti. Lun vn ny khng nht thit phn nh quan im ca Trng i hc Kinh t TP. H Ch Minh hay Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright.
TP. H Ch Minh, ngy 27 thng 04 nm 2012 Tc gi
ng Th Ngc Dung
ii TM TT LUN VN Tc nghn giao thng ang tht s tr thnh mt vn nn thnh ph H Ch Minh. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh l do s gia tng chng mt ca phng tin c nhn, trong khi qu t dnh cho giao thng l hu hn. Chnh v vy, h thng tu in ngm Metro ra i c xem l gii php cu cnh cho bi ton n tc giao thng. Tuy nhin, t l s dng phng tin cng cng ca ngi dn thnh ph cn rt thp. V th, mc tiu ca nghin cu l xy dng m hnh v cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng Metro cng nh o lng mc nh hng ca cc yu t ny n nh. Trn c s l thuyt v vai tr ca nh i vi hnh vi v cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng Metro, nghin cu kho st gn 300 ngi dn sinh sng TP. HCM, trong c 225 ngi c hiu bit v Metro nhm xc nh cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng tu in ngm Metro ti TP. HCM. Phng php phn tch nhn t c s dng vi tp hp 21 bin ban u, i din cho 5 nhm nhn t. Qua cc bc phn tch tin cy v phn tch tng quan, nghin cu loi b 5 bin khng ph hp v iu chnh m hnh nghin cu cn 16 bin i din cho 4 nhm nhn t. l cc nhm Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, S hp dn ca phng tin c nhn, Chun ch quan v Nhn thc v mi trng. Kt qu hi quy cho thy c 4 nhm nhn t trn u nh hng n nh s dng Metro. Trong , tc ng mnh nht n nh l nhn t Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, tip theo l Nhn thc v mi trng, Chun ch quan v cui cng l S hp dn ca phng tin c nhn. T kt qu phn tch trn, nghin cu a ra nhng kin ngh nhm tng Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro nh cn ch n yu t thi gian ca ngi s dng Metro, trnh tnh trng tt nghn khi ln xung tu, tr chuyn; cn thng tin c th trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng v lch trnh v thi gian tu chy ngi dn c th t ch v mt thi gian khi s dng Metro. i vi chnh quyn thnh ph, cn m nhiu t tuyn truyn, vn ng v khuyn khch ngi dn s dng Metro, nng cao thc v mi trng n mi tng lp dn c. T kha: h thng tu in ngm Metro, nh, thuyt hnh vi d nh, m hnh chp nhn cng ngh. iii
MC LC
LI CAM OAN ................................................................................................................... i TM TT LUN VN ........................................................................................................ ii MC LC ............................................................................................................................ iii DANH MC CC CH VIT TT V K HIU ............................................................ v DANH MC BNG BIU .................................................................................................. vi DANH MC HNH NH ................................................................................................... vii LI CM N ..................................................................................................................... viii Chng 1: GII THIU TI ......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Bi cnh vn chnh sch .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 S cn thit ca ti ...................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Mc tiu nghin cu ........................................................................................................ 4 1.4 Phm vi v i tng nghin cu .................................................................................... 5 1.5 Cu hi nghin cu ......................................................................................................... 5 1.6 Cu trc ca ti .......................................................................................................... 5 Chng 2: C S L THUYT V M HNH NGHIN CU ...................................... 6 2.1 Gii thch cc khi nim quan trng ................................................................................ 6 2.2 Tng quan c s l thuyt ................................................................................................ 6 2.2.1Thuyt hnh vi d nh (TPB) ................................................................................. 6 2.2.2 M hnh chp nhn cng ngh (TAM) ..................................................................... 8 2.3 M hnh nghin cu xut ............................................................................................ 9 2.3.1 M hnh kt hp TPB v TAM ................................................................................ 9 2.3.2 M hnh kt hp TPB, TAM v cc yu t khc ................................................... 10 2.4 Phn tch tng nhn t trong m hnh xut ............................................................... 12 2.4.1 Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro ............................................................................ 12 2.4.2 S hp dn ca PTCN ............................................................................................ 13 2.4.3 Chun ch quan (SN) ............................................................................................. 14 iv 2.4.4 Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi (PBC) ...................................................................... 15 2.4.5 Nhn thc v mi trng (EA) .............................................................................. 15 2.4.6 nh s dng Metro ............................................................................................ 16 2.5 Cc gi thuyt m hnh nghin cu xut ................................................................... 17 Chng 3: PHNG PHP NGHIN CU .................................................................... 19 3.1 Thit k nghin cu ...................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Xy dng thang o v bng hi iu tra ........................................................................ 19 3.2.1 Xy dng thang o ................................................................................................. 19 3.2.2 Bng hi iu tra .................................................................................................... 20 3.3 Phng php ly mu v thu thp s liu ...................................................................... 20 3.4 Thng tin v mu ........................................................................................................... 21 Chng 4: PHN TCH D LIU ..................................................................................... 22 4.1 Phn tch thng k m t ............................................................................................... 22 4.1.1 Thng k m t v tn sut v c trng ca c nhn c kho st .................... 22 4.1.2 Thng k m t v tn sut v c trng lin quan n phng tin giao thng ... 23 4.2 Phn tch tng quan .................................................................................................... 23 4.2.1 Tng quan gia cc bin c lp trong tng nhm yu t vi bin ph thuc .... 23 4.2.2 Tng quan gia cc bin c lp trong cng nhm yu t .................................. 23 4.3 Phn tch tin cy ........................................................................................................ 24 4.4 Phn tch nhn t ............................................................................................................ 24 4.5 M hnh iu chnh ........................................................................................................ 28 4.6 Phn tch hi quy .......................................................................................................... 28 4.7 Kim nh gi thuyt ..................................................................................................... 30 4.8 Kim nh s khc bit ca cc bin nh tnh ............................................................. 30 4.9 Mc nh hng ca tng nhm nhn t n nh s dng Metro ........................ 32 Chng 5. KT LUN V KIN NGH ........................................................................... 33 5.1 Kt lun v ng gp ca ti ..................................................................................... 33 5.2 Kin ngh chnh sch ...................................................................................................... 34 5.3 Cc hn ch v hng nghin cu tip theo ca ti .................................................. 35 TI LIU THAM KHO ................................................................................................... 37 PH LC ............................................................................................................................ 41 v DANH MC CC CH VIT TT V K HIU AA : (Alternatives attractiveness) S hp dn ca sn phm thay th ANOVA : (Analysis of Variance) Phng php phn tch phng sai ADB : (Asian Development Bank) Ngn hng pht trin chu EA : (Environment Awareness) Nhn thc v mi trng EFA : (Exploratory Factor Analysis) Phng php phn tch nhn t khm ph GDP : (Gross Domestic Product) Tng sn phm quc ni GTCC : Giao thng cng cng GTVT : Giao thng vn ti IT : (Intention) nh KMO : (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) Ch s xem xt s thch hp ca EFA KMRT : (Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit) H thng vn chuyn khi lng ln vi tc nhanh Kaohsiung Metro : H thng tu in ngm Metro MRT : (Mass Rapid Transit) H thng vn chuyn khi lng ln c tc nhanh PBC : (Perceived Behavirol Control) Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi PEU : (Perceived Ease of Use) Nhn thc tnh d s dng PTCC : Phng tin cng cng PTCN : Phng tin c nhn PU : (Perceived Usefulness) Nhn thc s hu ch SN : (Subjective Norms) Chun ch quan SPSS : Phn mm SPSS phn tch d liu TAM : (Technology Acceptance Model) M hnh chp nhn cng ngh TRA : (Theory of Reasoned Action) Thuyt hnh ng hp l TPB : (Theory of Planned Behavior) Thuyt hnh vi d nh TP.HCM: Thnh ph H Ch Minh UBND : y ban nhn dn VIF : (Variance Inflation Factor) H s phng i phng sai vi
DANH MC BNG BIU
Bng 1.1. Khi lng vn chuyn hnh khch giai on 2002 - 2009 .................................. 3 Bng 2.1. Thang o Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro ........................................................ 13 Bng 2.2. Thang o S hp dn ca PTCN ......................................................................... 14 Bng 2.3. Thang o Chun ch quan ................................................................................... 15 Bng 2.4. Thang o Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi .............................................................. 15 Bng 2.5. Thang o v Nhn thc ca mi trng .............................................................. 16 Bng 2.6. Thang o nh s dng Metro ......................................................................... 16 Bng 4.1. Phn tch tin cy Cronbachs Alpha ............................................................... 24 Bng 4.2. Kt qu kim nh KMO v Barlett .................................................................... 26 Bng 4.3. Kt qu phn tch nhn t .................................................................................... 27 Bng 4.4. Bng nh gi ph hp ca m hnh theo R 2 v Durbin-Watson .................. 28 Bng 4.5. Kt qu kim nh ANOVA ................................................................................ 29 Bng 4.6. Kt qu hi quy theo phng php Enter ............................................................ 29 Bng 4.7. Kt qu kim nh cc gi thuyt ........................................................................ 30
vii DANH MC HNH NH
Hnh 1.1. Tc tng dn s TP. HCM ................................................................................ 2 Hnh 1.2. Tc gia tng xe my TP. HCM ...................................................................... 3 Hnh 2.1. Thuyt hnh ng hp l (TRA) ........................................................................... 7 Hnh 2.2. Thuyt hnh vi d nh (TPB) ............................................................................... 7 Hnh 2.3. M hnh chp nhn cng ngh (TAM) .................................................................. 8 Hnh 2.4. M hnh kt hp TPB v TAM ca Chen, C.F & Chao, W.H (2010) ................... 9 Hnh 2.5. M hnh kt hp TPB v TAM ca nghin cu .................................................. 10 Hnh 2.6. M hnh nghin cu xut ................................................................................ 12 Hnh 2.7. Cc gi thuyt nghin cu ................................................................................... 18 Hnh 3.1. Quy trnh nghin cu ........................................................................................... 19 Hnh 4.1. M hnh iu chnh .............................................................................................. 28
viii LI CM N
Li u tin, ti chn thnh cm n TS. Cao Ho Thi, ngi trc tip hng dn ti thc hin ti. Thy gip ti nh hng nghin cu v dnh cho ti nhng li khuyn qu bu, li gp v ph bnh su sc gip ti hon thnh nghin cu ny. Ti gi li cm n su sc n qu Thy, C ti Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright i hc Kinh t TP. HCM nhit tnh ging dy, truyn t phng php t duy v nhng kin thc qu bu trong sut hai nm hc tp ti trng. Cm n nhng ngi bn thn thit trong tp th lp MPP3 chia s v ng vin ti trong sut thi gian qua. c bit cm n bn Nguyn c Vinh h tr ti trong qu trnh kho st, cm n cc bn Ng Th Thu Hin, H Th Hng Giang v Triu Vit H dnh cho ti nhng ng gp hu ch cho bng cu hi. Cui cng l li bit n su sc dnh cho Ba M v cc em, lun bn cnh ng h, ng vin ti nhng lc kh khn gip ti hon thnh lun vn ny.
TP. H Ch Minh, ngy 27 thng 04 nm 2012 ng Th Ngc Dung 1 Chng 1 GII THIU TI
1.1 Bi cnh vn chnh sch n tc giao thng ang tr thnh vn ng bo ng Thnh ph H Ch Minh (TP.HCM). Theo Phm Xun Mai (2011), tng thit hi cc mt nh tiu th nhiu nhin liu, gy tai nn, gy kt xedo xe my gy ra khong 1,07 t USD/nm, chim 11,2% GDP ca TP. HCM 1 . Tnh trng n tc giao thng ko di TP. HCM chnh l kt qu ca s pht trin khng ng b gia tng trng kinh t v c s h tng giao thng 2 . Mt trong nhng yu km ca c s h tng giao thng l cha c h thng giao thng vn ti cng cng c kh nng p ng phn ln nhu cu i li ca ngi dn thnh ph. V th, mc tiu trng im ca chnh quyn thnh ph l xy dng v pht trin h thng vn ti cng cng khi lng ln, hin i nhm gii quyt tnh trng n tc giao thng hin nay. D n h thng tu in ngm Metro (gi tt l Metro) ang c trin khai ti TP. HCM theo Quyt nh 101/Q-TTg ca Th tng chnh ph v Ph duyt Quy hoch pht trin giao thng vn ti TP. HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020. Mc tiu ca h thng Metro nhm gia tng th phn ca phng thc vn ti cng cng ln 47-50% vo nm 2020 3 . Theo quy hoch, mng li ng st th bao gm 06 tuyn Metro 4 , 02 tuyn monorail 5 v 01 tuyn xe in mt t vi tng chiu di 109km 6 . Cho n thi im hin nay, tuyn s 1 v tuyn s 2 ca Metro bc vo giai on thi cng. D kin n nm 2016 7 hai tuyn ny s hon thnh v i vo hot ng. H thng tu in ngm Metro c xy dng TP. HCM mt thnh ph c hot ng kinh t nng ng nht v ng u c nc v tc tng trng kinh t vi t trng
1 Trch trong T An (2011), Mi nm xe my gy thit hi cho TP. HCM trn 1 t USD, Si Gn Tip Th, truy cp ngy 30/03/2012 ti a ch: http://www.tin247.com/moi_nam%2C_xe_may_gay_thiet_hai_cho_TP. HCM_tren_1_ty_usd-1-21790931.html 2 S GTVT TP. HCM (2010), Thc trng v quy hoch pht trin giao thng vn ti TP. HCM n nm 2020 3 MVA Asia Limited (2009), D n Tuyn vn ti th khi lng ln s 2, tr. 2-5 4 Chi tit 6 tuyn Metro c trnh by Ph lc 1 5 L tu in ngm mt ray, trong toa xe ch cn mt ray hot ng 6 iu 1, mc 3b Quyt nh 101/Q-TTg ca Chnh ph 7 Hi An An Nhn (2010), Khi cng tu in ngm di 11 km ti TP HCM, Vnexpress, truy cp ngy 01/04/2012, ti a ch http://vnexpress.net/gl/xa-hoi/2010/08/3ba1f9a9/
2 GDP ca TP. HCM chim 1/3 GDP ca c nc 8 . V mt a l, TP. HCM nm pha Ty sng Si Gn, cch ca sng 57 km v pha Ty Bc. Thnh ph c chia thnh 22 qun, trong c 12 qun th (t Qun 1 n 12), c 4 qun ni thnh (Bnh Thnh, G Vp, Tn Bnh, Ph Nhun) v 6 qun ngoi vi (C Chi, Hc Mn, Th c, Bnh Chnh, Nh B v Cn Gi) 9 . Dn s bnh qun trn a bn thnh ph nm 2011 c tnh 7.600,4 nghn ngi, tng 2,8% so vi nm 2010 10 . Hnh 1.1 cho thy dn s thnh ph lin tc tng trong cc nm qua. Chnh tc gia tng dn s c hc qu nhanh ny ko theo nhu cu i li ca ngi dn ngy cng tng cao. Hnh 1.1 Tc tng dn s TP. HCM
Ngun: Cc thng k TP. HCM, 2011, trch trong UBND, 2011, tr. 17 Phng tin giao thng chnh TP. HCM l phng tin c nhn vi t l s dng 93%, trong xe gn my chim 78%, t con chim 1,2%, phn cn li ch yu l xe p (MVA Asia Limited, 2009, tr. 2-4). Qua Hnh 1.2, c th nhn thy s lng xe gn my tng lin tc trong nhng nm gn y. iu ny s khin bi ton v tc nghn giao thng ca TP. HCM ngy cng tr nn nan gii hn.
8 Mng thng tin tch hp trn Internet ca TPHCM - HCM City web (2010), mc Gii thiu chung, truy cp ngy 30/04/2012 ti a ch http://www.hochiminhcity.gov.vn/gioithieu/default.aspx?Source=%2Fgioithieu&Category=Gi%E1%BB%9B i+thi%E1%BB%87u+chung&ItemID=9&Mode=1 9 UBND TP. HCM (2011), Bo co tnh hnh kinh t - x hi TP. HCM nm 2011 v phng hng, nhim v pht trin kinh t - x hi nm 2012 10 UBND TP. HCM (2011), Bo co tnh hnh kinh t - x hi TP. HCM nm 2011 v phng hng, nhim v pht trin kinh t - x hi nm 2012 3 Hnh 1.2 Tc gia tng xe gn my TP. HCM
Ngun: Gomez-Ibanez, Jose A. & Nguyn Xun Thnh, 2008, v tng hp t internet Bn cnh , h thng phng tin giao thng cng cng (gi tt l PTCC), ch yu l xe but, cha tht s thu ht s tham gia ca ngi dn vi t l s dng rt thp 5% 11 , mc d s lt hnh khch qua cc nm c tng (Bng 1.1). TP. HCM m nhiu t vn ng ngi dn i xe but, vi cam kt i mi din mo bn ngoi n cht lng bn trong, nhng thc t nhiu ngi dn vn cha c thi thn thin vi xe but 12 . Bng 1.1 Khi lng vn chuyn hnh khch giai on 2002-2009 n v: triu lt STT Ch tiu 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 Xe but 36.2 73.5 122.1 208.7 253.4 296.2 342.5 342.2 a Xe but c tr gi 21.4 66.6 113.7 199.7 235.7 270.7 316.1 290.9 Tuyn ph thng 18.4 60.2 106.2 187.7 221.0 256.1 303.3 Tuyn Hc sinh Sinh vin Cng nhn 2.9 6.5 7.5 12.0 14.7 14.6 12.9 b Xe but khng tr gi 14.8 6.9 8.4 9.0 17.7 25.5 26.3 51.3 2 Xe taxi 21.1 15.7 41.2 45.9 55.5 84.0 109.6 138.9 3 Tng cng 57.3 89.2 163.3 254.6 308.9 380.3 452.1 481.1 Ngun: S GTVT TP. HCM (2010), Tng lai ca vn ti hnh khch cng cng TP. HCM
11 MVA Asia Limited, D n Tuyn vn ti th khi lng ln s 2, 2009, tr. 3-1 12 Hu Cng (2012), 1001 l do ngi Si Gn khng thch i xe but, Xa l tin tc, truy cp ngy 01/04/2012 ti a ch http://tintuc.xalo.vn/00- 1599341446/1001_ly_do_nguoi_Sai_Gon_khong_thich_xe_buyt.html 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Xe my 2285 2306 2429 2623 2903 3406 4200 4871 5377 5883 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 4 Trc tnh trng ngi dn cha tht s mn m vi PTCC, Chnh quyn thnh ph cn c nhng chnh sch khuyn khch ngi dn thnh ph s dng phng tin cng cng, c bit l khi Metro chnh thc i vo hot ng. Vic khuyn khch ngi dn s dng Metro, nu c hiu qu, mt mt s m bo hiu qu ti chnh ca d n, mt khc s gp phn nhm gii quyt bi ton n tc giao thng v nhim trn a bn thnh ph. 1.2 S cn thit ca ti Phng tin giao thng cng cng c xem l yu t then cht pht trin h thng giao thng bn vng. PTCC gip gim kt xe, nhim mi trng, tai nn giao thng v.v (Morley, C., 2011, tr. 1; Heath, Y. & Gifford, R., 2002, tr. 2154). D rng s tin b ra u t phng tin giao thng cng cng cc nc trn th gii rt ln 13 nhng c rt t d n nghin cu thi v hnh vi ca ngi dn i vi PTCC, c bit nhng nc ang pht trin (Yusak O.S., & Tri Basukia, 2009, tr. 2). nhiu nc, con s d on v lng hnh khch bao gi cng cao hn con s thc t m ngi dn s dng. M, con s d bo hnh khch ca mt s h thng xe in nh 14 cao hn rt nhiu so vi con s thc t (Pickrell, 1992; Mackett & Edwards, 1998, trch trong Aoife A., 2001, tr. 21). i Loan, sau hn hai nm hot ng k t thng 9 nm 2008, h thng Metro thnh ph Kiaohsiung ch tng t l ngi dn s dng PTCC t 5% n 9.6% trong khi t l s dng xe my vn gi mc 50% (Oliver F.S., Yu-Hsuan H., & David E.A., 2010, tr. 1). V th, pht huy li ch kinh t ca d n Metro, cn phi c mt nghin cu c th da trn bng chng thc nghim tm ra nhng nhn t c tc ng n nh s dng PTCC ny, t a ra cc gii php thch hp. 1.3 Mc tiu nghin cu Nghin cu ny c thc hin vi mc tiu l xy dng m hnh cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn ti TP. HCM v mc tc ng ca cc yu t ny n nh s dng. T a ra nhng gii php gip khuyn khch ngi dn s dng khi Metro chnh thc i vo hot ng.
13 Cc nh t vn k hoch Metro TP. HCM c tnh chi ph u t cho ton b mng li di 161 km c th tn 9.7 t -la, bnh qun 60 triu -la mt km (Gomez-Ibanez, Jose A. & Nguyn Xun Thnh, 2008, tr. 8) 14 Nguyn tc light rail system 5 1.4 Phm vi v i tng nghin cu Phm vi nghin cu ca ti l ton b h thng tu in ngm Metro khu vc TP. HCM. i tng nghin cu l nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn sinh sng ti TP. HCM v c hiu bit v Metro. 1.5 Cu hi nghin cu Vi mc tiu v phm vi nghin cu trnh by, bi vit s tr li 3 cu hi nghin cu nh sau: Cu hi 1: Cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn ti TP. HCM? Cu hi 2: Mc tc ng ca cc yu t ny n nh s dng Metro nh th no? Cu hi 3: Gii php no khuyn khch ngi dn ti TP. HCM s dng Metro khi h thng ny hon thnh v i vo hot ng? 1.6 Cu trc ca ti ti gm 6 chng. Chng 1 gii thiu bi cnh chnh sch, s cn thit ca ti, mc tiu, phm vi v cu hi nghin cu. Chng 2 trnh by c s l thuyt, tham kho cc nghin cu trc v m hnh xut. Chng 3 khi qut phng php nghin cu. Chng 4 m t d liu kho st, a ra nhng kt qu thu c t phn tch d liu v kim nh gi thuyt. Chng 5 l phn kt lun, ng gp ca ti v nhng kin ngh chnh sch mang tnh gi m cho chnh quyn TP. HCM trong bi cnh hin ti.
6 Chng 2 C S L THUYT V M HNH NGHIN CU
Chng 2 trnh by cc khi nim quan trng, tng quan c s l thuyt v m hnh l thuyt p dng cho nghin cu. Trong , bin ph thuc l nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro v cc yu t v l thuyt c nh hng n nh ny. 2.1 Gii thch cc khi nim quan trng Metro: theo Ban qun l ng st th 15 , Metro l tu in chy bng ng ray trong th c sc vn chuyn khi lng ln. H thng Metro TP. HCM bao gm on i ngm v i trn cao. nh: theo Ajzen, I.(1991, tr. 181) nh c xem l bao gm cc yu t ng c c nh hng n hnh vi ca mi c nhn; cc yu t ny cho thy mc sn sng hoc n lc m mi c nhn s b ra thc hin hnh vi 16 . 2.2 Tng quan c s l thuyt Trn c s i tng nghin cu l nh s dng, ti trnh by 2 hc thuyt rt quan trng i vi nh v hnh vi ca mi c nhn v c kim chng thc nghim trong rt nhiu nghin cu. l thuyt hnh vi d nh v m hnh chp nhn cng ngh. 2.2.1 Thuyt hnh vi d nh Thuyt hnh vi d nh (Ajzen, 1991) l s pht trin v ci tin ca Thuyt hnh ng hp l. Thuyt hnh ng hp l TRA (Theory of Reasoned Action) c Ajzen v Fishbein xy dng t nm 1975 v c xem l hc thuyt tin phong trong lnh vc nghin cu tm l x hi (Eagly & Chaiken, 1993; Olson & Zanna, 1993; Sheppard, Hartwick, & Warshaw, 1988, trch trong Mark, C. & Christopher J.A., 1998, tr. 1430). M hnh TRA cho thy hnh vi c quyt nh bi nh thc hin hnh vi . Mi quan h gia nh v hnh vi c a ra v kim chng thc nghim trong rt nhiu nghin cu nhiu lnh vc (Ajzen, 1988; Ajzen & Fishben, 1980; Canary & Seibold, 1984;
15 Ban qun l ng st th (2012), Gii thiu d n Tuyn s 1, trang web ca Ban qun l ng st th, truy cp ngy 20/04/2012 ti a ch http://hcmc-maur.vn/vn/Du-An/Loai-Du-An-1/Du-An-Tuyen- Duong-Sat-Metro-Ben-Thanh-Suoi-Tien-Giai-Doan-1/ 16 Nguyn tc Intentions are assumed to capture the motivational factors that influence a behavior; they are indications of how hard people are willing to try, of how much an effort they are planning to exert, in order to perform the behavior. 7 Sheppard, Hartwick, & Warshaw, 1988, trch trong Ajzen, 1991, tr. 186). Hai yu t chnh nh hng n nh l thi c nhn v chun ch quan. Trong , thi ca mt c nhn c o lng bng nim tin v s nh gi i vi kt qu ca hnh vi . Ajzen (1991, tr. 188) nh ngha chun ch quan (Subjective Norms) l nhn thc ca nhng ngi nh hng s ngh rng c nhn nn thc hin hay khng thc hin hnh vi. M hnh TRA c trnh by Hnh 2.1. Hnh 2.1 Thuyt hnh ng hp l (TRA)
Ngun: Davis, Bagozzi v Warshaw, 1989, trch trong Chutter M.Y., 2009, tr. 3 Theo Ajzen (1991), s ra i ca thuyt hnh vi d nh TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior) xut pht t gii hn ca hnh vi m con ngi c t s kim sot. Nhn t th ba m Ajzen cho l c nh hng n nh ca con ngi l yu t Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi (Perceived Behavioral Control). Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi phn nh vic d dng hay kh khn khi thc hin hnh vi v vic thc hin hnh vi c b kim sot hay hn ch hay khng (Ajzen, 1991, tr. 183). Hc thuyt TPB c m hnh ha Hnh 2.2. Hnh 2.2 Thuyt hnh vi d nh (TPB)
Ngun: Ajzen, I., The theory of planned behaviour, 1991, tr. 182 o lng nim tin i vi nhng thuc tnh ca sn phm Nim tin i vi nhng thuc tnh ca sn phm
Nim tin v nhng ngi nh hng s ngh rng ti nn thc hin hay khng thc hin hnh vi S thc y lm theo mun ca nhng ngi nh hng Thi nh Chun ch quan Thi Chun ch quan Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi nh hnh vi 8 Heath, Y. v Gifford, R. (2002) ng dng thuyt hnh vi d nh gii thch hnh vi s dng phng tin cng cng ca sinh vin trng i hc Victoria, Anh. Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N. (2010) ng dng thuyt hnh vi d nh nghin cu cc yu t tm l nh hng n nh s dng xe in trn cao th Phnom Phenh, Campuchia. Chen, C.F. v Chao, W.H. (2010) s dng thuyt hnh vi d nh nghin cu nh s dng h thng KMRT (Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit H thng vn chuyn khi lng ln vi tc nhanh) thnh ph Kaohsiung, i Loan. Ngoi ra, thuyt hnh vi d nh c p dng rt nhiu trong cc nghin cu v giao thng cng nh quyt nh la chn phng tin di chuyn ca mi c nhn (Sebastian Bamberg & Icek Ajzen 1995, Forward, 1998a; Forward 1998b; Pilling et al, 1998; Pilling et al, 1999, trch trong Aoife A., 2001, tr. 76). 2.2.2 M hnh chp nhn cng ngh (TAM Technology Acceptance Model) S xut hin ca tu in ngm Metro TP. HCM c th c xem l mt dch v giao thng mang tnh cng ngh mi. Mt trong nhng cng c hu ch trong vic gii thch nh chp nhn mt sn phm mi l m hnh chp nhn cng ngh TAM. Theo Legris v cng s (2003, trch trong Teo, T., Su Luan, W., & Sing, C.C., 2008, tr. 266), m hnh TAM d on thnh cng khong 40% vic s dng mt h thng mi. L thuyt TAM c m hnh ha v trnh by Hnh 2.3. Hnh 2.3 M hnh chp nhn cng ngh
Ngun: Davis, 1985, tr. 24, trch trong Chutter M.Y., 2009, tr. 2 Trong , Nhn thc s hu ch (PU Perceived Usefulness) l cp m c nhn tin rng s dng mt h thng c th s nng cao kt qu thc hin ca h (Davis, 1985, trch trong Chuttur, M.Y., 2009, tr. 5). Nhn thc tnh d s dng (PEU Perceived Ease of Use) l cp m mt ngi tin rng s dng mt h thng c th s khng cn n lc (Davis, 1985, trch trong Chuttur, M.Y., 2009, tr. 5). Nhn thc s hu ch Nhn thc tnh d s dng Thi hng ti s dng nh s dng 9 2.3 M hnh nghin cu xut Trn c s nn tng hai hc thuyt c ngha trong vic gii thch nh ca mi c nhn, phn ny trnh by m hnh l thuyt p dng cho nghin cu, bao gm bin ph thuc l nh s dng Metro v cc bin c lp nh hng n nh ny. 2.3.1 M hnh kt hp TPB v TAM Do Metro l mt sn phm giao thng mi TP. HCM nn nghin cu xut m hnh kt hp gia TPB v TAM l ph hp gii thch cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng Metro. M hnh ny c kim chng thc t trong nghin cu ca Chen, C.F. v Chao, W.H. (2010) v nh s dng h thng KMRT thnh ph Kaohsiung, i Loan v c trnh by Hnh 2.4. Hnh 2.4 M hnh kt hp TPB v TAM ca Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H. (2010)
Ngun: Chen, C.F. v Chao, W.H, 2010, tr. 4 Tuy nhin, da trn cc nghin cu thc nghim sau khi m hnh TAM u tin c cng b, cu trc Thi c loi b ra khi m hnh TAM nguyn thy v n khng lm trung gian y cho s tc ng ca Nhn thc s hu ch ln nh hnh vi (Venkatesh, 1999, trch trong Jyoti D.M., 2009, tr. 393). ng thi, trong nghin cu v nh s dng mt h thng mi, Davis, Bagozzi v Warshaw (1989, trch trong Chutter, M.Y, 2007, tr. 10) chng minh rng PU v PEU c nh hng trc tip n nh s dng. Trn c s , nghin cu ch xem xt tc ng trc tip ca PU v PEU ln nh hnh vi. ng thi, yu t Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi c bao hm n yu t d s dng, v th nghin cu khng xt n yu t PEU trong m hnh. M hnh kt hp TPB TAM c xut v trnh by Hnh 2.5.
Thi Chun ch quan nh hnh vi Nhn thc s hu ch Nhn thc tnh d s dng Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi 10 Hnh 2.5 M hnh kt hp TPB v TAM ca nghin cu
Ngun: xut ca tc gi 2.3.2 M hnh kt hp TPB, TAM v cc yu t khc Bn cnh cc yu t Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi v Chun ch quan, nghin cu cn xem xt n cc yu t khc c kh nng nh hng n nh s dng. l cc yu t S hp dn ca sn phm thay th, Nhn thc v mi trng v cc yu t v nhn khu hc. Cc yu t trn c xut trn c s ph hp vi thc tin Vit Nam v da trn cc nghin cu trc . 2.3.2.1 S hp dn ca sn phm thay th Metro trong tng lai s l mt phng tin b sung vo h thng giao thng cng cng TP. HCM. Thc t cho thy, t l s dng PTCC TP. HCM rt thp, ch chim khong 5% 17 , phn ln l PTCN. PTCN em li cho ngi dn thnh ph rt nhiu li ch nh s t do, tin li, linh hot v.v...(Steg, 2005, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009, tr. 71). Chnh nhng li ch ny s cn tr nh chuyn sang s dng PTCC ni chung v Metro ni ring ca mi c nhn. Theo kinh t hc vi m, y chnh l ro cn chuyn i (switching barriers). Jones v cng s (2000, trch trong Julander, C.R. & Soderlund, M., 2003, tr. 4) nh ngha ro cn chuyn i l chi ph kinh t, x hi, tm l lm cho khch hng kh thay i nh cung cp. Ro cn chuyn i c chia lm 3 loi, gm c (1) s hp dn ca sn phm thay th, (2) mi quan h gia c nhn v (3) nhn thc chi ph chuyn i. Trong , s hp dn ca sn phm thay th c hiu l danh ting, thng hiu v cht lng dch v ca cc sn phm thay th hin c trn th trng. Mi quan h c nhn l sc mnh ca mi quan h c nhn c pht trin gia khch hng v nh cung cp dch v. V nhn thc chi ph chuyn i l vic mt c nhn tin tng rng khi chuyn i nh cung cp th s tn ti mt chi ph cho h. Chi ph chuyn i y c
17 MVA Asia Limited (2009), D n Tuyn vn ti th khi lng ln s 2 Nhn thc s hu ch ch Chun ch quan Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi nh hnh vi 11 th l thi gian, tin bc, n lc v bt k chi ph tm l kt hp vi qu trnh thay i nh cung cp hay loi hnh dch v. Trong gii hn ca ti, tc gi ch nghin cu S hp dn ca PTCN m b qua cc PTCC khc nh xe but, taxi, v.vv t l s dng PTCC qu thp. Ngoi ra, trong nghin cu v D n tuyn vn ti th khi ln s 2, ban t vn cho rng trong tng lai xe but kh c th cnh tranh vi Metro do nn quy hoch xe but l phng tin gom khch ti cc nh ga Metro (MVA Asia Limited, 2009, tr. 3-13). V th, i vi yu t S hp dn ca sn phm thay th, nghin cu ch cp n PTCN. 2.3.2.2 Nhn thc v mi trng Steg v Vlek (1997, trch trong Heath, Y. & Gifford, R., 2002, tr. 2159) nghin cu mi quan h gia nhn thc v cc tc hi do xe hi gy ra v vic s dng xe hi ca ngi dn H Lan. Kt qu kho st cho thy ch phng tin xe hi vi nhn thc cao hn th s dng xe hi t thng xuyn hn. Trong nghin cu v cc yu t nh hng n hnh vi chn la phng tin di chuyn Thy in, Garvill (1991, trch trong Heath, Y. & Gifford, R., 2002, tr. 2159) cho thy yu t Nhn thc v mi trng v cc vn do xe hi gy ra c nh hng n nh gim s dng xe hi ca ngi dn. V th, nghin cu xut yu t Nhn thc v mi trng vo m hnh nghin cu. 2.3.2.3 Cc yu t v nhn khu hc Zhao, F. v cng s (2002, tr. 16) cho rng cc nhn t v nhn khu hc c nh hng n quyt nh la chn phng tin di chuyn ca mi c nhn. Liu (1993); Kain & Liu (1995); Gomez-Ibanez (1996) (trch trong Brian, D.T. & Camille, N.Y.F, 2003, tr. 8) chng minh cc yu t nhn khu hc, gm thu nhp, vic s hu phng tin c nhn, a im vn phngtc ng rt ln n quyt nh la chn phng tin. V th, nghin cu xut a cc yu t v nhn khu hc vo kim nh s khc bit i vi nh s dng. M hnh nghin cu xut c minh ha Hnh 2.6.
12 Hnh 2.6 M hnh nghin cu xut
Ngun: xut ca tc gi 2.4 Phn tch tng nhn t trong m hnh xut Trn c s m hnh nghin cu c xut Hnh 2.6, nghin cu tin hnh xy dng cc thang o cho tng nhm nhn t nh hng. 2.4.1 Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro Nghin cu ca Beirao v Cabral (2007, tr. 478, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009, tr. 73) a ra cc u im phng tin cng cng, bao gm (1) chi ph thp, (2) khng phi tm bi xe, (3) khng chu cng thng li xe, (4) an ton, (5) gim n tc giao thng, (6) gim nhim mi trng v (7) gim tai nn giao thng. Trong nghin cu v nh s dng Metro thnh ph Kaohsiung, i Loan, Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H. (2010, tr. 4) a ra 5 thuc tnh o lng li ch ca Metro, c th l (1) chi ph thp hn, (2) s dng thi gian hiu qu hn, (3) gim thi gian i li, (4) tin li v (5) hu ch. Da trn m hnh TPB, Aoife, A. (2001, tr. 348) o lng nim tin ca ngi dn i vi h thng MRT Lucas 18 sp a vo s dng bng cc yu t (1) tit kim thi gian, (2) tng tnh thun tin, (3) tit kim chi ph, (4) gim ri ro gp tai nn giao thng, (5) bo v mi trng, (6) an ton v (7) gim kt xe.
18 Lucas l h thng xe in nh (light rail) thnh ph Dublin, Anh. S hp dn ca PTCN Chun ch quan
Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro Nhn thc v mi trng
Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro Yu t v nhn khu hc 13 T cc nghin cu trc, tc gi xy dng cc thang o cho bin Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro (PU) v c tng hp Bng 2.1. Bng 2.1 Thang o Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro M Thang o Thang o gc Tc gi A1 Ti ngh s dng Metro thun tin For me, taking the KMRT to commute next time would overall be comfortable Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H., 2010 A2 Ti ngh s dng Metro an ton I believe that using Lucas will help to increase my sense of personal safety on my trip to work For me, taking the KMRT to commute next time would overall be safe Aoife, A., 2001
Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H., 2010 A3 Ti ngh s dng Metro thoi mi I believe that using Lucas will increase my comfort on my trip to work For me, taking the KMRT to commute next time would overall be pleasant Aoife, A., 2001
Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H., 2010 A4 Ti ngh chi ph s dng Metro thp I believe that using Lucas will save me money on my trip to work For me, taking the KMRT to commute next time would overall be cheap Aoife A., 2001
Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H., 2010 A5 Ti ngh s dng Metro tit kim thi gian I believe that using Lucas will save me time on my trip to work For me, taking the KMRT to commute next time would overall be fast Aoife, A., 2001
Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010 A6 Ti ngh s dng Metro gip ti t ch v mt thi gian If I were to take the bus to school, I can have a good control over my time Heath, Y., & Gifford, R., 2002 Ngun: Tng hp ca tc gi 2.4.2 S hp dn ca PTCN Cc u im ca PTCN chnh l ro cn nh hng n nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn. Beirao v Cabral (2007, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009, tr. 73) a ra cc u im ca PTCN nh (1) T do/ khng ph thuc (Freedom/ Independence), (2) C th i n bt k ni no (Ability to go where I want), (3) Thun tin (Convenience), (4) Nhanh chng (Rapidity), (5) Linh hot (Flexibility) v (6) T ch (Know what I can expect). Ngoi ra, Chen, C.F., v Chao, W.H. (2010) cn nghin cu mc nh hng ca yu t Thi quen s dng PTCN i vi nh s dng PTCC thnh ph 14 Kaohsiung, i Loan mt thnh ph c t l s dng xe my chim 65% v xe hi chim 19% (Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010, tr. 2). Nhn thy TP. HCM cng l mt thnh ph c t l s dng PTCN cao nh Kaohsiung, nghin cu xut a yu t Thi quen vo m hnh. S tc ng ca hnh ng thng xuyn trong qu kh (thi quen) i vi nh v hnh vi trong tng lai c chng minh v kim nghim trong nhiu nghin cu (Azjen, 1991; Bagozzi, 1981; Bentler & Speckart, 1979; Fredricks & Dossett, 1983, trch trong Bamberg, S., Ajzen, I. & Schmidt, P., 2003, tr. 5). Ngoi ra, gi v v s thay i gi v l nhng yu t quan trng nh hng n quyt nh s dng phng tin lu thng ca ngi dn (Balcombe, R.; Mackett, R., et al., 2004, tr. 15). Da trn cc nghin cu trn, thang o cho S hp dn ca PTCN c trnh by Bng 2.2. Bng 2.2 Thang o S hp dn ca PTCN M Thang o Thang o gc Tc gi B1 Ti ngh s dng PTCN thun tin hn Metro Convenience Beirao v Cabral, 2007, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009 B2 PTCN gip ti i n bt k ni no ti mun trong khu vc TP. HCM Ability to go where I want Freedom/ Independence
Beirao v Cabral, 2007, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009 B3 Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN nhanh hn Metro Rapidity Beirao v Cabral, 2007, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009 B4 Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN gip ti t ch v mt thi gian hn so vi Metro Know what I can expect Beirao v Cabral, 2007, trch trong Mehbub Anwar, A.H.M., 2009 B5 Ti ngh chi ph s dng PTCN thp hn Metro Cheap fare Balcombe, R.; Mackett, R., et al., 2004 B6 Ti quen vi vic s dng PTCN hng ngy Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010 Ngun: Tng hp ca tc gi 2.4.3 Chun ch quan (SN) Chen., C.F. v Chao, W.H. (2010) o lng mc nh hng ca 3 nhm i tng i vi nh s dng xe in trong tng lai ca ngi dn Kaohsiung. l kin ca nhng ngi quan trng ca c nhn c kho st, kin cng ng v cc chnh sch khuyn khch ca chnh quyn thnh ph. Trong nhm kin ca cng ng, tc gi c 15 xut thm nh hng ca c quan, trng hc. Thang o cho nhm yu t Chun ch quan c trnh by trong Bng 2.3. Bng 2.3 Thang o Chun ch quan M Thang o Thang o gc Tc gi C1 Gia nh khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti My friends or my family think that I should use future urban rail transit Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N., 2010 C2 Bn b khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti My friends or my family think that I should use future urban rail transit Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N., 2010 C3 C quan/ trng hc khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti xut ca tc gi C4 Chnh quyn thnh ph c cc bin php khuyn khch s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti Government policy will influence my choice of taking the KMRT Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010
Ngun: Tng hp ca tc gi 2.4.4 Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi (PBC) Chen, C.F. v Chao, W.H. (2010) o lng nhn thc ch quan ca mi c nhn i vi vic s dng Metro l d dng hay kh khn v hnh ng c b kim sot v hn ch hay khng. Thang o xut ny c tng hp v trnh by trong Bng 2.4. Bng 2.4 Thang o Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi M Thang o Thang o gc Tc gi D1 i vi ti, vic s dng Metro l d dng For me to take the KMRT to commute is easy It is easy for me to use future urban rail transit Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010 Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N., 2010 D2 Vic s dng Metro hon ton do ti quyt nh My freedom to take the KMRT to commute is high Whether I use future urban rail transit is completely up to me Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010 Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N., 2010 Ngun: Tng hp ca tc gi 16 2.4.5 Nhn thc v mi trng (EA) Heath, Y. v Gifford, R. (2002, tr. 2188) nghin cu nh hng ca Nhn thc mi trng i vi nh s dng PTCC ca sinh vin trng i hc Victoria. S lng xe my lu thng dy c cng l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin con s tai nn giao thng ngy cng tng cao. V th, tc gi xut yu t ny vo thang o Nhn thc v mi trng. Bng 2.5 Thang o Nhn thc v mi trng M Thang o Thang o gc Tc gi E1 S dng xe my nhiu lm tng nhim mi trng TP. HCM Car use causes serious air pollution in the world I believe that using Lucas on my trip to work will help to conserve the environment Heath, Y., & Gifford, R., 2002 Aoife, A., 2001
E2 S dng xe my nhiu lm tng tai nn giao thng TP. HCM xut ca tc gi E3 S dng xe my nhiu lm tng tc nghn giao thng TP. HCM I believe that using Lucas will reduce the traffic on the roads on my trip to work Many neighborhoods in Victoria are unsafe because there is too much traffic Aoife A., 2001
Heath, Y., & Gifford, R., 2002 Ngun: Tng hp v xut ca tc gi 2.4.6 nh s dng Metro Chen, C.F. & Chao, W.H (2010); Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N., (2010) o lng nh s dng bng nhiu cu nhn nh nhm khng nh tnh nht qun v tin cy ca bin ph thuc ny. Bng 2.6 Thang o nh s dng Metro M Thang o Thang o gc Tc gi F1 Ti c nh s dng Metro I intend to use Lucas to travel to work when it opens I plan to use future urban rail transit
Aoife A., 2001
Borith, L., Kasem, C. & Takashi, N., 2010 F2 Ti c nh s dng Metro thng xuyn My intention to switch from motorcycle (or car) to the KMRT when commuting next time is strong Chen, C.F., & Chao, W.H., 2010
17 F3 Ti c nh khuyn gia nh/ bn b s dng Metro xut ca tc gi Ngun: Tng hp v xut ca tc gi 2.5 Cc gi thuyt ca m hnh nghin cu xut Trn c s 5 nhm nhn t nh hng n nh s dng vi 21 yu t i din v m hnh nghin cu xut nh Hnh 2.6, c 5 gi thuyt tng ng c a ra nh hnh 2.7. C s a ra cc gi thuyt trn da trn kt qu nghin cu ca Chen, C. F. & Chao, W. H., (2010, trang 10) v nh s dng h thng KMRT i Loan.
Tm li, Chng 2 tng hp cc nghin cu trc cho thy nh l yu t quan trng dn n hnh vi ca mi c nhn. M hnh nghin cu c xy dng da trn hai m hnh ch o l Thuyt hnh vi d nh v M hnh chp nhn cng ngh, ng thi kt hp vi cc yu t khc ph hp vi iu kin Vit Nam. C 5 nhn t c hnh thnh t c s l thuyt, l Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, S hp dn ca PTCN, Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi, Chun ch quan v Nhn thc v mi trng. M hnh nghin cu c mt bin ph thuc l nh s dng Metro. Trong 5 gi thuyt c a ra, ch c gi thuyt v mi quan h gia S hp dn ca PTCN l nghch bin vi nh s dng, cn 4 gi thuyt cn li u l quan h ng bin.
18 Hnh 2.7 Cc gi thuyt nghin cu Gi thuyt H 1 : S hu ch ca Metro tc ng ng bin n nh s dng Metro
Gi thuyt H 2 : S hp dn ca PTCN tc ng nghch bin n nh s dng Metro
Gi thuyt H 3 : Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi tc ng ng bin n nh s dng Metro
Gi thuyt H 4 : nh hng ca x hi tc ng ng bin n nh s dng Metro
Gi thuyt H 5 : Nhn thc v mi trng tc ng ng bin n nh s dng Metro
Gi thuyt H 6 : Cc yu t v nhn khu hc to nn s khc bit i vi nh s dng Metro
Ngun: xut ca tc gi Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro Tnh thun tin Tnh an ton S thoi mi Tit kim chi ph Tit kim thi gian T ch v mt thi gian
nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro
H 1 + S hp dn ca PTCN PTCN thun tin hn Metro PTCN c th i n bt k ni no trong TP. HCM Chi ph s dng PTCN thp hn Metro S dng PTCN tit kim thi gian hn so vi Metro S dng PTCN t ch v mt thi gian hn so vi Metro quen vi vic s dng PTCN hng ngy
nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro
nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro
H 2 - H 4 + Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi Tnh d s dng Vic s dng Metro do ti quyt nh
nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro
H 3 + Chun ch quan nh hng ca gia nh nh hng ca bn b nh hng ca c quan/ trng hc nh hng ca chnh sch khuyn khch ca chnh quyn thnh ph
Nhn thc v mi trng Gim nhim mi trng Gim tai nn giao thng Gim tc nghn giao thng
H 5 + nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro
Cc yu t v nhn khu hc
nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro
19 Chng 3 PHNG PHP NGHIN CU Chng 3 trnh by phng php nghin cu ca ti bao gm thit k nghin cu, xy dng thang o v bng hi iu tra kho st, thu thp d liu, s lng mu; khi qut v phn tch nhn t v cc bc phn tch d liu. 3.1 Thit k nghin cu Quy trnh nghin cu cho ti c trnh by Hnh 3.1. Hnh 3.1 Quy trnh nghin cu
Ngun: Cao Ho Thi, 2006, trch trong Chu Ng Anh Nhn, 2011, tr. 18 3.2 Xy dng thang o v bng hi iu tra 3.2.1 Xy dng thang o Cc thang o c xy dng v pht trin t c s l thuyt v m hnh nghin cu. Cc thang o ny c dch sang ting Vit t nhng thang o c s dng trong cc nghin cu c cng b trc . V vy, trc khi hnh thnh thang o chnh thc cho mc tiu nghin cu, cc cuc phng vn su c thc hin nhm khng nh cc i Vn nghin cu C s l thuyt v nghin cu trc Nghin cu s b iu tra s b iu chnh bng cu hi s b Kho st iu tra Kim nh php o, Cronbachs Alpha Phn tch nhn t (EFA) Kim nh m hnh Kt lun Bng hi kho st s b Bng hi kho st chnh thc Phn tch tin cy Phn tch hi quy a bin 20 tng c phng vn hiu r c ni dung cc khi nim v ngha ca t ng. Thang o c s dng trong nghin cu l thang o Likert vi 5 mc ph bin nh sau : rt ng , ng , bnh thng, khng ng v rt khng ng .Vic s dng thang o ny trong nghin cu kinh t x hi v cc vn trong kinh t x hi u mang tnh a kha cnh. 3.2.2 Bng hi iu tra Bng hi iu tra c thc hin qua 2 bc. u tin, da trn c s l thuyt v nhu cu cn nghin cu, bng hi s b c hnh thnh. Trong qu trnh kho st s b, tc gi c tng hp v c kt nhng kin ng gp ca nhng ngi c kho st. H l nhng ngi c hiu bit v Metro hoc tng s dng Metro nc ngoi. ng thi, tc gi phng vn hai chuyn vin v nghin cu th trng, Ch H Th Hng Giang v Triu Vit H (nhn vin cng ty AC Nielsen, TP. HCM) v li l, r rng v b cc ca bng cu hi. Bng hi s b v ton b kin ng gp c trnh by Ph lc 2 v 3. Trn c s iu chnh bng hi s b, bng hi chnh thc c hnh thnh v trnh by Ph lc 4. 3.3 Phng php ly mu v thu thp s liu Tng th nghin cu: Tng th nghin cu l nhng ngi c hiu bit v Metro hoc tng s dng Metro nc ngoi. Kch thc mu: Quy nh v s mu theo Bollen (1989, trch trong Chu Ng Anh Nhn, 2011, tr. 19) l t l mu trn bin quan st phi m bo ti thiu l 5:1. Theo quy nh ca Bollen, nghin cu c 21 bin th s mu ti thiu phi l 105. Cch ly mu: Nghin cu c thc hin theo phng php pht bng cu hi trc tip v gi qua email. Vic pht bng cu hi trc tip c thc hin ti mt s cng ty (dnh cho i tng nhn vin vn phng), Nh vn ha thanh nin v mt s trng i hc nh Bch Khoa, Kinh t, S phm K thut Ngoi ra, c i tng l ngi i xe but, nghin cu cn c thc hin ti trm iu hnh xe but Bn Thnh, Qun 1. ng thi, bng cu hi c thit k trn trang web Google docs ti a ch https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFJZ2FxWWNuSjVDT3RDR HdRcTVBN0E6MQ v c nh km trong email gi cho tng i tng kho st. 21 3.4 Thng tin v mu C 150 mu kho st v 150 email c gi i. Trong qu trnh kho st, c 63 ngi cha bit v Metro, mt s kho st c kt qu c tr li ging nhau t u n cui, hoc b trng nhiu cu hi. Tt c cc mu kho st trn u b loi b trc khi a vo SPSS. Trong 300 mu c gi i, c 225 phiu hp l, chim t l 75%. Ton b mu hp l s c x l d liu bng phn mm SPSS 16.0 tin hnh cc bc phn tch tng quan, phn tch tin cy, phn tch nhn t, phn tch hi quy v kim nh gi thuyt. Tm li, chng 3 trnh by phng php nghin cu ca ti. Theo , bng cu hi s b c xy dng t c s l thuyt v c iu chnh thng qua kho st s b. Vic kho st chnh thc c thc hin bng phng php pht bng cu hi trc tip v gi qua email. D liu thu thp s c phn tch bng phn mm SPSS theo quy trnh, bt u t phn tch tin cy v phn tch nhn t rt ra cc nhn t ph hp cho phn tch hi quy. Sau khi thc hin cc kim nh cc gi thuyt m hnh cu trc v ph hp ca m hnh tng th, kt qu phn tch hi quy s tr li cho cu hi nghin cu ca ti Cc yu t no nh hng n nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn TP. HCM v mc nh hng ca cc yu t ny nh th no?
22 Chng 4 PHN TCH D LIU T kt qu ca d liu c thu thp nh thit k Chng 3, Chng 4 s ln lt thc hin cc phn tch, gm c phn tch tng quan, phn tch tin cy, phn tch nhn t, phn tch m hnh hi quy v cui cng l kim nh cc gi thuyt ca m hnh nghin cu c trnh by Hnh 2.7. 4.1 Phn tch thng k m t Phn tch thng k m t ca tp hp d liu kho st c trnh by chi tit cc Ph lc 5, Ph lc 6 v Ph lc 7. 4.1.1 Thng k m t v tn s v c trng ca c nhn c kho st - Kt qu kho st v gii tnh: theo kt qu kho st, c 120 ngi tham gia l n chim 53,33%, 105 ngi tham gia l nam chim 46,67%. - Kt qu kho st v tui: c 78 ngi c tui nh hn hoc bng 22 chim 34,66%, 103 ngi trong tui t 23 n 30 chim 45,78%, 30 ngi t tui 30 n 40 chim 13,34% v c 14 ngi trn 40 tui chim 6,22%. - Kt qu kho st v tnh trng hn nhn: c 151 ngi cha c gia nh chim 67,11%, 21 ngi c gia nh v cha c con chim 9,33%, 53 ngi c gia nh v c con chim 23,56%. - Kt qu kho st v trnh hc vn: kt qu kho st cho thy c 24 ngi c trnh hc vn bng hoc di ph thng chim 10,67%, 138 ngi c trnh cao ng/ i hc chim 61,33%, v 63 ngi c trnh sau i hc chim 28,00%. - Kt qu kho st v ngh nghip: c 77 ngi l i tng hc sinh sinh vin chim 34,22%, i tng nhn vin vn phng/ cng nhn c 86 ngi chim 38,22%, c 22 ngi l k s chim 9,78%, c 17 ngi l gio vin/ ging vin chim 7,56% v nhm ngh nghip khc (gm bc s, chuyn gia, ni tr, ngh hu) c 23 ngi chim 10,22%. - Kt qu kho st v thu nhp: c 105 ngi c mc thu nhp di 5 triu ng/ thng 46,67%, c 68 ngi c mc thu nhp t 5-10 triu ng/ thng chim 30,22%, c 25 23 ngi c thu nhp t 10 n 15 triu ng/ thng chim 11,11%. Cn li l cc i tng c thu nhp trn 15 triu ng/ thng, c 27 ngi chim 12%. 4.1.2 Thng k m t v tn s v c trng c lin quan n phng tin giao thng - Kt qu kho st v mc hiu bit Metro: theo kt qu kho st, c 169 ngi ch bit Metro qua bo, i, internet chim 75,11%, c 56 ngi tng s dng Metro nc ngoi chim 24,89%. Trong , khi c hi quy hoch Metro c i qua l trnh di chuyn hng ngy hay khng th c 89 ngi tr li l c chim 39,56%, c 111 ngi tr li l khng chim 49,33% v 25 ngi tr li khng bit chim 11,11%. - Kt qu kho st v phng tin di chuyn: kt qu kho st v phng tin thng xuyn s dng trong vng 6 thng tr li y cho thy, c 9 ngi s dng xe p chim 4%, c 11 ngi s dng xe hi chim 4,89%, c 36 ngi thng xuyn s dng xe but chim 16%, v 169 ngi s dng xe my chim 75,11%. 4.2 Phn tch tng quan 4.2.1 Tng quan gia cc bin c lp trong tng nhm yu t vi bin ph thuc Qua kim nh Pearson gia cc bin c lp vi bin ph thuc Ph lc 8 cho thy gn nh tt c cc yu t xut nghin cu u c tng quan cht ch vi nh s dng vi mc ngha 1% v 5%. y l c s tin hnh bc phn tch nhn t tip theo. 4.2.2 Tng quan gia cc bin c lp trong cng nhm yu t Phn tch tng quan gia cc bin c lp trong cng nhm nhn t c trnh by Ph lc 8. Kim nh Pearson cho thy phn ln cc yu t trong cng nhm c tng quan cht ch vi nhau mc ngha thng k 1% v 5% v cc h s tng quan ln hn 0,3. Ring nhm Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, yu t A2 (Ti ngh s dng Metro an ton) c tng quan thp (nh hn 0,3) vi 3 yu t A4 (Ti ngh gi v Metro r), A5 (Ti ngh s dng Metro gip ti tit kim c thi gian) v A6 (Ti c th t ch v mt thi gian khi s dng Metro) nn nghin cu xem xt loi b hay gi li nu kt qu phn tch nhn t khng tt. Tng t, nhm S hp dn ca PTCN c yu t B3 (Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN tit kim thi gian hn Metro) c tng quan thp (nh hn 0,3) vi 3 yu t B1 (ti ngh s dng PTCN thun tin hn Metro), B2 (PTCN gip ti i n bt k ni no ti mun 24 trong khu vc TP. HCM) v B5 (ti ngh chi ph s dng PTCN thp hn Metro) nn nghin cu xut loi b hoc gi li nu kt qu phn tch nhn t khng tt. 4.3 Phn tch tin cy Thang o c nh gi tin cy thng qua hai cng c l h s Cronbach Alpha v phn tch nhn t. H s ca Cronbach l mt php kim nh thng k v mc cht ch m cc mc hi trong thang o tng quan vi nhau (Hong Trng & Mng Ngc, 2005, tr. 251). H s Cronbachs Alpha c tnh theo cng thc = N* / [1 + *(N - 1)], trong l h s tng quan trung bnh gia cc mc hi v N l s mc hi. Theo quy c th mt tp hp cc mc hi dng o lng c nh gi l tt phi c h s ln hn hoc bng 0,8. Tuy nhin, i vi trng hp khi nim ang o lng l mi hoc mi i vi ngi tr li trong bi cnh nghin cu th h s Cronbachs Alpha t 0,6 tr ln l php o m bo tin cy v chp nhn c (Nunnally, 1978; Peterson, 1994; Slater, 1995, trch trong Hong Trng & Mng Ngc, 2005, tr. 258). Chi tit kt qu phn tch tin cy ca tng nhm nhn t c trnh by Ph lc 9. Bng 4.1 cho thy h s Cronbachs Alpha ca tng nhm nhn t. Bng 4.1 Phn tch tin cy Cronbachs Alpha Nhm yu t Cronbachs Alpha Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro 0,792 S hp dn ca PTCN 0,770 Chun ch quan 0,858 Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi 0,535 Nhn thc v mi trng 0,875 nh s dng Metro 0,798 Kt qu phn tch tin cy cho thy tt c cc nhm yu t u c h s Cronbachs Alpha > 0,6 tr nhm Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi. V th, nghin cu xem xt loi b hay gi li nu kt qu phn tch nhn t khng tt. 4.4 Phn tch nhn t Phng php phn tch nhn t c tin hnh rt gn tp hp cc bin c lp thnh mt tp nh hn l cc bin i din cho mi nhm nhn t m khng lm mt i ngha gii thch v thng tin ca nhm nhn t (Hong Trng & Mng Ngc, 2005, tr. 260). 25 H s (Kaiser Meyer Olkin) KMO l mt ch s dng xem xt s thch hp ca phn tch nhn t. Tr s KMO ln (gia 0,5 v 1) c ngha l phn tch nhn t thch hp, cn nu nh tr s ny nh hn 0,5 th phn tch nhn t c kh nng khng thch hp vi d liu. Phng php s dng l Principal component vi php quay nhn t l Varimax. Vic phn tch nhn t s c tin hnh vi ton b cc bin quan st, sau s loi b tng bin c h s truyn ti thp. Ln 1 c 21 bin quan st c a vo phn tch theo tiu chun Eigenvalue ln hn 1 th c 5 nhn t c rt ra. H s KMO = 0,811 ( > 0,5) c trnh by Ph lc 10.1. Tuy nhin, bin quan st B3 v D2 b loi do c h s truyn ti qu thp. Ln 2, loi b bin D2 c h s truyn ti thp hn B3. ng thi, h s Cronbach Alpha ca nhm nhn t cha D2 nh 0,6. Kt qu phn tch nhn t ln 2 cho thy c 5 nhm nhn t c rt ra. Tuy nhin bin A3, B3 v D1 c h s truyn ti nh hn 0,5 trong bin D1 c h s truyn ti nh nht l 0,465 nn tc gi xem xt b bin D1 ra khi m hnh phn tch nhn t ln 3. Ln 3, 19 bin quan st c a vo phn tch (loi b bin D1), c 5 nhm nhn t c rt ra. Tuy nhin, bin A3 c h s truyn ti nh hn 0,5 l 0,489 nn tc gi xem xt b bin A3 ra khi m hnh phn tch nhn t ln 4. Ln 4, kt qu phn tch nhn t sau khi loi b bin A3 cho thy bin A2 tuy c h s truyn ti ln hn 0,5 nhng li ng mt mnh to thnh mt nhm nhn t. ng thi, kt qu phn tch tng quan c trnh by Ph lc 8 cho thy A2 khng c tng quan mnh vi cc bin khc cng nhm nhn t ban u nn ta loi b bin A2 ra khi m hnh phn tch nhn t ln 5. Ln 5, sau khi loi bin A2, kt qu phn tch nhn t cho thy bin B3 c h s truyn ti nh hn 0,5 nn ta loi b bin B3 ra khi m hnh phn tch nhn t ln 6. Ln 6, 16 bin cn li c a vo phn tch nhn t. Kt qu phn tch cho thy c 4 nhm nhn t c rt ra, trong cc h s truyn ti u ln hn 0,5. Trong qu trnh phn tch nhn t ln 2 v ln 3, bin D2 v D1 ln lt b loi ra khi phn tch nhn t, iu ny c th gii thch do h s Cronbach Alpha thp. Hai bin ny khng ph hp cng nm chung mt nhm nhn t. 26 Trong qu trnh phn tch nhn t ln 4 v ln 5, bin A3 v A2 ln lt b loi ra khi m hnh, iu ny c th gii thch rng ngi kho st u ng v tnh an ton v thoi mi ca Metro. Tuy nhin, hai yu t ny khng tc ng n nh s dng ca h m ph thuc vo cc yu t khc. Cui cng l bin B3 b loi ra sau phn tch nhn t ln 6. iu ny c th gii thch rng di chuyn bng PTCN khng tit kim thi gian hn so vi Metro. Nghin cu xut kt qu phn tch nhn t ln th 6 cho phn tch hi quy. Kt qu kim nh KMO v kt qu phn tch nhn t c trnh by ln lt Bng 4.2 v Bng 4.3. Bng 4.2 Kt qu kim nh KMO v Bartlett Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. 0,772 Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 1555,992 df 120 Sig. 0,000
Bng 4.2 cho thy kt qu kim nh KMO v Bartlett c tr s KMO = 0,772 (nm t 0,5 n 1) v gi thuyt H 0 b bc b vi mc ngha thng k 0% (sig. = 0,000). Nh vy, cc iu kin ban u c p ng tin hnh phn tch nhn t.
27 Bng 4.3 Kt qu phn tch nhn t
Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro S hp dn ca PTCN Chun ch quan Nhn thc mi trng Ti ngh s dng Metro thun tin 0,622
Ti ngh gi v Metro l r 0,714
Ti ngh s dng Metro gip ti tit kim c thi gian 0,820
Ti c th t ch v mt thi gian khi s dng Metro 0,780
Ti ngh s dng PTCN thun tin hn Metro 0,725
PTCN gip ti i n bt k ni no ti mun trong khu vc TP. HCM
0,682
Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN gip ti t ch v mt thi gian hn so vi Metro
0,778
Ti ngh chi ph s dng PTCN thp hn Metro 0,709
Ti quen vi vic s dng PTCN hng ngy 0,705
Gia nh khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti
0,882
Bn b khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti
0,908
C quan/ trng hc khuyn ti s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti
0,883
Chnh quyn thnh ph c cc bin php khuyn khch s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti
0,571
S dng Metro gip gim bt nhim mi trng TP. HCM
0,858 S dng Metro gip gim bt tai nn giao thng TP. HCM
0,891 S dng Metro gip gim bt tc nghn giao thng TP. HCM
0,840 Eigenvalues 4,150 3,018 1,900 1,449 bin thin c gii thch (Variance explained (%)) 25,935 18,862 11,878 9,058 bin thin c gii thch tch ly (Cumulative variance explained (%)) 25,935 44,797 56,675 65,732 Phng php rt trch cc nhn t: Principal Axis Factoring Phng php xoay cc nhn t: Promax with Kaiser Normalization Trng s (factor loading) nh hn 0,5 b loi 28
4.5 M hnh iu chnh M hnh nghin cu iu chnh sau khi phn tch nhn t c trnh by Hnh 4.1. Hnh 4.1 M hnh nghin cu iu chnh
Ngun: xut ca tc gi Cc gi thuyt ca m hnh nghin cu: H 1 : Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro ng bin vi nh s dng Metro H 2 : S hp dn ca PTCN nghch bin vi nh s dng Metro H 3 : Chun ch quan tng quan ng bin ln nh s dng Metro H 4 : Nhn thc v mi trng tng quan ng bin ln nh s dng Metro 4.6 Phn tch hi quy Phn tch hi quy c thc hin vi 4 bin c lp bao gm (1) Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro (k hiu PU), (2) S hp dn ca PTCN (k hiu AA), (3) Chun ch quan (k hiu SN), (4) Nhn thc v mi trng (k hiu EA) v 1 bin ph thuc l bin nh s dng (k hiu IT). Bng 4.4 cho thy m hnh hi quy a ra tng i ph hp vi mc ngha 1%. H s R 2 hiu chnh = 0,473 c ngha l m hnh c th gii thch c 47,3% cho tng th v mi lin h gia cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng Metro. Kt qu kim nh Durbin-Watson cho tr s 2,118, gn bng 2, chng t khng c tng quan chui bc 1 trong m hnh (Hong Trng & Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc, 2008, tp 1, tr.233). Bng 4.4 Bng nh gi ph hp ca m hnh theo R 2 v Durbin-Watson Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1 0,695(a) 0,483 0,473 0,54419 2,118 H 1 + nh s dng tu in ngm Metro Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro S hp dn ca PTCN Chun ch quan Nhn thc v mi trng H 2 - H 3 + H 4 + 29 a Bin c lp: (Constant), EA, AA, SN, PU b Bin ph thuc: IT Kim nh F s dng trong bng phn tch phng sai (ANOVA) l php kim nh gi thuyt v ph hp ca m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh tng th. Trong Bng 4.5 kt qu phn tch ANOVA, cho thy gi tr sig rt nh (sig = 0,000) nn m hnh hi quy ph hp vi tp d liu v c th s dng c. Bng 4.5 Kt qu kim nh ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 59,489 4 14,872 50,220 0,000(a) Residual 63,671 215 0296 Total 123,160 219 a Bin c lp: (Constant), EA, AA, SN, PU b Bin ph thuc: IT Kt qu phn tch hi quy c trnh by Bng 4.6 cho thy hin tng a cng tuyn khng c nh hng n kt qu gii thch ca m hnh vi cc h s phng i phng sai VIF ca mi bin ln nht bng 1.345 (<10). Quy tc l khi VIF vt qu 10 th l du hiu ca a cng tuyn (Hong Trng & Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc, 2008, tp 1, tr. 252). Bng 4.6 Kt qu hi quy theo phng php Enter Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
Model B Std.Error Beta t Sig. 1. (Constant) 0,975 0,346 2,822 0,005 PU 0,406 0,063 0,364 6,405 0,000 AA -0,201 0,056 -0,182 -3,570 0,000 SN 0,203 0,051 0,242 4,526 0,000 EA 0,280 0,059 0,263 4,766 0,000 a. Bin ph thuc: IT. Bin c lp PU, AA, SN, EA Correlatations Collinearity Statistics Model Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF 1. (Constant) PU 0,583 0,400 0,314 0,743 1,345 AA -0,234 -0,237 -0,175 0,925 1,081 30 SN 0,464 0,295 0,222 0,842 1,187 EA 0,442 0,309 0,234 0,792 1,262 T kt qu hi quy, nh s dng Metro c biu din qua cng thc sau y: IT = 0,975 + 0,364*PU 0,182*AA + 0,242*SN + 0,263*EA t=6,405 t=-3,570 t=4,526 t=4,766 p=0,000 p=0,000 p=0,000 p=0,000 Din gii kt qu xc nh bin c lp no c vai tr quan trng hn i vi bin ph thuc, ta dng h s tng quan ring tng phn (parital correlations). Kt qu hi quy cho thy Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro nh hng ln nht n nh s dng (Partial = 0,400), k n l thnh phn Nhn thc v mi trng (Partial = 0,309), tip theo l thnh phn Chun ch quan (Partial = 0,295) v cui cng l thnh phn S hp dn ca PTCN (Partial = -0,237). 4.7 Kim nh gi thuyt Kt qu kim nh cc gi thuyt c trnh by Bng 4.7. Bng 4.7 Kt qu kim nh cc gi thuyt GI THUYT KT QU KIM NH Gi thuyt H 1 : Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro cng cao th nh s dng Metro cng cao NG H (p < 1%) Gi thuyt H 2 : S hp dn ca PTCN cng cao th nh s dng Metro cng gim NG H (p < 1%) Gi thuyt H 3 : Chun ch quan ca mi c nhn cng cao th nh s dng Metro cng cao NG H (p < 1%) Gi thuyt H 4 : Nhn thc v mi trng ca Metro cng cao th nh s dng Metro cng cao NG H (p < 1%) 4.8 Kim nh s khc bit ca cc bin nh tnh Mc ch ca vic nghin cu nh tnh l tm s khc bit v nh s dng Metro gia cc nhm, phn bit da trn cc yu t v nhn khu hc, bao gm gii tnh, tui, thu nhp, trnh hc vn, tnh trng hn nhn. i vi kim nh s khc bit gia 2 nhm gii tnh, nghin cu s dng php kim nh gi thuyt v tr trung bnh ca 2 tng th. Cn cc yu t cn li l tui, thu nhp, trnh hc vn v tnh trng hn nhn c t 3 nhm mu tr ln th p dng phng php phn tch phng sai ANOVA. Phng php ny ph hp v n kim nh tt c cc nhm mu 31 cng mt lc vi kh nng phm sai lm ch 5% (Hong Trng & Mng Ngc, 2005, tr. 115 & 123). Kt qu chi tit ca kim nh c trnh by Ph lc 12. 4.8.1 Kim nh nh s dng gia phi nam v n Kim nh Levene test c tin hnh vi gi thuyt H 0 rng phng sai ca 2 tng th bng nhau. Kt qu kim nh cho gi tr sig. = 0,769 > 0,05 cho thy phng sai gia 2 gii tnh khng khc nhau. V th, trong kt qu kim nh Independent Samples Test, tc gi s dng kt qu Equal variance assumed c sig. > 0,05 (sig = 0,102 ). Do , khng c s khc bit gia phi nam v phi n i vi nh s dng Metro. 4.8.2 Kim nh nh s dng gia nhng ngi c tui khc nhau Theo kt qu Test of Homogeneity of Variances, vi mc ngha sig = 0,493 > 0,05 c th ni phng sai nh gi v nh s dng Metro gia cc tui khng khc nhau mt cch c ngha thng k. Nh vy, kt qu phn tch ANOVA c th s dng c. Theo kt qu phn tch ANOVA, vi mc ngha sig = 0,370 > 0,05 nn c th kt lun khng c s khc bit c ngha thng k v nh s dng Metro gia cc tui. 4.8.3 Kim nh nh s dng gia nhng ngi c tnh trng hn nhn khc nhau Theo kt qu Test of Homogeneity of Variances, vi mc ngha sig = 0,548 c th ni phng sai nh gi v nh s dng Metro gia cc nhm c tnh trng hn nhn khc nhau l khng khc nhau mt cch c ngha thng k. Nh vy, kt qu phn tch ANOVA c th s dng c. Theo kt qu phn tch ANOVA, vi mc ngha sig = 0,647 > 0,05 nn c th kt lun khng c s khc bit c ngha thng k v nh s dng Metro gia cc nhm c tnh trng hn nhn khc nhau. 4.8.4 Kim nh nh s dng gia nhng ngi c trnh hc vn khc nhau Theo kt qu Test of Homogeneity of Variances, vi mc ngha sig = 0,876 > 0,05 c th ni phng sai nh gi v nh s dng Metro gia nhng ngi c trnh hc vn khng khc nhau mt cch c ngha thng k. Nh vy, kt qu phn tch ANOVA c th s dng c. Theo kt qu phn tch ANOVA, vi mc ngha sig = 0,220 > 0,05 nn c th kt lun khng c s khc bit c ngha thng k v nh s dng Metro gia ngi c trnh hc vn khc nhau. 32
4.8.5 Kim nh nh s dng gia nhng ngi c thu nhp khc nhau Theo kt qu Test of Homogeneity of Variances, vi mc ngha sig = 0,136 > 0,05 c th ni phng sai nh gi v nh s dng Metro gia cc mc thu nhp khng khc nhau mt cch c ngha thng k. Nh vy, kt qu phn tch ANOVA c th s dng c. Theo kt qu phn tch ANOVA, vi mc ngha sig = 0,473 > 0,05 nn c th kt lun khng c s khc bit c ngha thng k v nh s dng Metro gia nhng ngi c thu nhp khc nhau. 4.9 Mc nh hng ca tng nhm nhn t n nh s dng Metro T kt qu trn, mc nh hng ca tng nhm nhn t i vi nh s dng Metro, t cao n thp nh sau: Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, Nhn thc v mi trng, Chun ch quan, v S hp dn ca PTCN. Mc quan trng ca cc yu t trong tng nhm nhn t c nh gi thng qua trng s (factor loading) ca tng yu t trong kt qu phn tch nhn t, trng s cng ln th vai tr ca yu t trong nhm cng quan trng. Theo , mt s yu t tiu biu c mc quan trng nht trong tng nhm l Tit kim v mt thi gian (0,820) i vi nhm Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, T ch v mt thi gian (0,778) i vi nhm S hp dn ca PTCN, nh hng ca bn b (0,908) i vi nhm Chun ch quan v Gim bt tai nn giao thng (0,891) i vi nhm Nhn thc v mi trng. Tm li, Chng ny thng k m t nhng ngi c kho st, cc bin c lp v bin ph thuc. Tip theo, nghin cu tin hnh phn tch tng quan v tin cy trc khi phn tch nhn t. Kt qu phn tch nhn t loi b mt s bin khng ph hp v rt ra c 4 nhn t c nh hng n nh s dng Metro, theo th t t mnh n yu dn, l Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, Nhn thc v mi trng, Chun ch quan v S hp dn ca PTCN. Ngoi ra, kt qu kim nh khng c s khc bit gia phi nam v phi n, gia nhng ngi c tui, thu nhp, tnh trng hn nhn v trnh hc vn i vi nh s dng Metro.
33 Chng 5 KT LUN V KIN NGH
T kt qu phn tch ca Chng 4, Chng 5 s trnh by kt lun, ng thi a ra cc kin ngh, hn ch v cc hng nghin cu ca ti. 5.1 Kt lun v ng gp ca ti 5.1.1 Kt lun M hnh nghin cu xut 5 nhn t nh hng n nh s dng Metro bao gm: Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, S hp dn ca PTCN, Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi, Chun ch quan v Nhn thc v mi trng vi 21 bin quan st. Sau khi nh gi tin cy ca thang o v phn tch nhn t, nhn t Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi b loi do tin cy thp (h s Cronbach Alpha < 0,6) v h s truyn ti nh hn 0,5. Ngoi ra, cc bin A2 (Ti ngh s dng Metro an ton), A3 (Ti ngh s dng Metro thoi mi) v B3 (Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN tit kim thi gian hn Metro) b loi do c h s truyn ti nh hn 0,5. Kt qu phn tch hi quy a bin xc nh nh s dng Metro nh hng bi 4 nhn t, xp theo th t t mnh nht n yu dn, l Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, Nhn thc v mi trng, Chun ch quan v S hp dn ca PTCN. Ngoi ra, kt qu kim nh cho thy cc yu t v nhn khu hc, bao gm gii tnh, tui, tnh trng hn nhn, trnh hc vn v thu nhp, khng to ra s khc bit trong nh s dng Metro gia cc nhm i tng khc nhau. 5.1.2 ng gp ca ti Phng php nghin cu ca ti l s dng l thuyt t cc nghin cu trc trn th gii v vai tr ca nh i vi hnh vi v cc yu t nh hng n nh. ng gp ca ti l kt hp vi l thuyt t cc nghin cu trc, nghin cu xy dng m hnh v kim nh thc tin m hnh TP. HCM. Thng qua phng php phn tch nhn t, nghin cu hnh thnh 4 nhm nhn t c nh hng n nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn TP. HCM; l Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, S hp dn ca PTCN, Chun ch quan v Nhn thc v mi trng. 34 5.2 Kin ngh chnh sch Da vo kt qu nghin cu, mt s gii php kin ngh nhm nng cao nh s dng h thng tu in ngm Metro ca ngi dn TP. HCM. Th nht, i vi nhn t Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, kt qu nghin cu cho thy yu t v mt thi gian tit kim thi gian v t ch v mt thi gian c mc nh hng cao nht. V th, kin ngh xut i vi Ban qun l ng st th l cn ch trng n yu t thi gian ca ngi s dng Metro. Quy hoch ti cc nh ga cn phi c thng thong v hp l, trnh tnh trng ch i, n tc khi ln xung phng tin. Ngoi ra, cn thng xuyn thng tin, cp nht v l trnh, thi gian di chuyn ca tng tuyn Metro trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng nhm gip ngi dn c th kim sot v t ch v mt thi gian khi s dng Metro. Nghin cu cho thy yu t gi v cng c mc quan trng i vi nh s dng Metro ca ngi dn. Cn xy dng mt c ch gi hp l, da trn cc nghin cu v mc sn lng chi tr ca ngi dn c th va b p cho chi ph hot ng, va thu ht c nhiu ngi s dng Metro. V mt thun tin, kt qu kho st Ph lc 6 cho thy 49,33% ngi c kho st tr li rng quy hoch Metro khng i qua l trnh di chuyn hng ngy. Nhn thy Metro trong tng lai s khng p ng ht phn ln nhu cu i li ca ngi dn, v th gii php v kh nng trung chuyn gia cc phng tin hin c l cn thit. Quy hoch giao thng cng cng nn xut c cu li cc tuyn xe but gom khch ti cc trm Metro nhm tng tnh thun tin cho nhng ngi c l trnh di chuyn khng ph hp vi Metro. Ngoi ra, cn xy dng bi cho PTCN mt s trm chnh hoc cc trm bt u i vo khu vc trung tm. Nh vy, s gim c tnh trng n tc giao thng khu vc trung tm. Gii php Park and ride ( v i) ny kh ph bin cc nc pht trin v PTCC (Morley, C., 2011, tr. 45). Ngoi ra tng tnh thun tin, nghin cu xut xem xt n s dng v in t cho Metro thay v v giy cho xe but nh hin nay. Quan st ca tc gi khi s dng Metro Singapore cho thy, th i Metro c tch hp nhiu tnh nng, va thanh ton khi mua hng, va i xe but. u im ca th in t ny va gip trnh tht thot tin v, thun tin s dng v tng hp c cc thng tin v l trnh di chuyn, thi gian di 35 chuyn ca ngi s dng. Ngun thng tin ny s rt cn thit cho nhng nghin cu v xu hng v nhu cu s dng Metro ca ngi dn trong tng lai. Cui cng, cn tnh n vic quy hoch cc khu trung tm thng mi, gii tr xung quanh cc ga chnh tng tnh thun tin v thu ht ngi dn s dng Metro. Th hai, i vi nhn t Nhn thc v mi trng, kt qu nghin cu cho thy khi ngi dn c nhn thc tt v mi trng th nh s dng Metro cao. Chnh quyn thnh ph cn xy dng cc chng trnh tuyn truyn nhm nng cao thc v mi trng i vi mi tng lp ngi dn. Th ba, i vi nhn t Chun ch quan, kt qu cho thy nh hng ca bn b c tc ng ln nht. V th, cn xy dng cc chng trnh vn ng s dng Metro trong trng hc, c quan v.v C nh vy, nh sc nh hng ca bn b cng lp, ca ng nghip s c nhiu c nhn c nh s dng Metro. Th t, i vi nhn t S hp dn ca PTCN, yu t t ch v mt thi gian ng vai tr quan trng nht. Ngi dn TP. HCM vn quen s dng xe my nn h c th d on c thi gian di chuyn ca mnh. Gii php y l lm sao tng tnh t ch v mt thi gian ca Metro tht cao khuyn khch ngi dn s dng Metro. Cc gii php v hn ch tnh hp dn ca PTCN ch nn p dng khi m h thng PTCC pht trin v c kh nng p ng c nhu cu i li ca ngi dn. Tuy nhin, chnh quyn thnh ph c th c cc gii php hn ch PTCN vo khu vc trung tm vo gi cao im. Nu mun i vo khu vc trung tm vo gi cao im, ch phng tin phi tr mc ph cao hn hoc chuyn i sang Metro. 5.3 Cc hn ch v hng nghin cu tip theo ca ti Th nht, s lng mu trong nghin cu ch c 225, tht s l cn t so vi mt nghin cu nh lng. Do i tng kho st l nhng ngi c hiu bit v Metro nn nghin cu cha a dng ha c i tng nghin cu, ch yu l tp trung vo hc sinh sinh vin v nhn vin vn phng. Th hai, nh s dng chu nh hng ca nhiu yu t nhng ti ch tp trung vo 4 nhm nhn t l Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro, S hp dn ca PTCN, Chun ch quan, Nhn thc v mi trng. Kt qu m hnh ch gii thch c 47,3% nh s dng. 36 Th ba l hn ch ca phng php phn tch d liu, nghin cu s dng cng c phn tch hi quy a bin xc nh mi quan h gia cc bin c lp v bin ph thuc. Tuy nhin, php phn tch ny khng cho thy mi quan h gia cc bin c lp vi nhau. Th t l gii php cn mang tnh nh tnh v cha nh gi c nhng tr ngi khi thc hin cc gii php trn. Hng nghin cu tip theo ca ti l tng s lng mu kho st v a dng ha i tng kho st. ng thi, s dng m hnh phng trnh cu trc SEM (Structural Equation Modelling) nghin cu mi quan h gia cc bin c lp./.
37 TI LIU THAM KHO Ting Vit 1. Hi An An Nhn (2010), Khi cng tu in ngm di 11 km ti TP. HCM, Vnexpress, truy cp ngy 01/04/2012 ti a ch http://vnexpress.net/gl/xa- hoi/2010/08/3ba1f9a9/ 2. T An (2011), Mi nm xe my gy thit hi cho TP. HCM trn 1 t USD, Si Gn Tip Th, truy cp ngy 30/03/2012 ti a ch: http://www.tin247.com/moi_nam%2C_xe_may_gay_thiet_hai_cho_TP. HCM_tren_1_ty_usd-1-21790931.html 3. Ban Qun l ng st th (2012), Gii thiu d n tuyn Metro s 1, Ban Qun l ng st th, truy cp ngy 20/04/2012 ti a ch http://hcmc-maur.vn/vn/Du- An/Loai-Du-An-1/Du-An-Tuyen-Duong-Sat-Metro-Ben-Thanh-Suoi-Tien-Giai-Doan- 1/ 4. Chnh ph (2007), Quyt nh s 101/Q-TTg ngy 22/01/2007 v Ph duyt Quy hoch Pht trin Giao thng Vn ti TP. HCM n nm 2020 v Tm nhn sau nm 2020 5. Hu Cng (2012), 1001 l do ngi Si Gn khng thch xe but, Vnexpress, truy cp ngy 01/05/2012 ti a ch http://vnexpress.net/gl/xa-hoi/2011/08/1001-ly-do- nguoi-sai-gon-khong-thich-xe-buyt/ 6. Gomez-Ibanez, Jose A. v Nguyn Xun Thnh (2008), Nghin cu tnh hung v TP. HCM, Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright, TP. H Ch Minh. 7. Chu Ng Anh Nhn (2011), Ci thin tin hon thnh d n Xy dng thuc Ngn sch tnh Khnh Ha, Lun vn Thc s Kinh t, Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright, TP. H Ch Minh 8. Mng thng tin tch hp trn Internet ca TPHCM - HCM City web (2010), mc Gii thiu chung, truy cp ngy 30/04/2012 ti a ch http://www.hochiminhcity.gov.vn/gioithieu/default.aspx?Source=%2Fgioithieu&Categ ory=Gi%E1%BB%9Bi+thi%E1%BB%87u+chung&ItemID=9&Mode=1 9. MVA Asia Limited (2009), D n tuyn vn ti th khi ln s 2, thng 2/2009 38 10. S GTVT TP. HCM (2010), Thc trng v quy hoch pht trin giao thng vn ti TP. HCM n nm 2020 11. S GTVT TP. HCM (2010), Tng lai ca vn ti hnh khch cng cng TP. HCM. 12. Hong Trng v Mng Ngc (2005), Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS, NXB Thng k, H Ni 13. Hong Trng & Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc (2008), Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS, Tp 1, Tp 2, NXB Hng c. 14. UBND TP. HCM (2011), Bo co tnh hnh kinh t - x hi thnh ph nm 2011 v Phng hng, nhim v pht trin kinh t - x hi nm 2012, Trang thng tin in t Hi Bo v Thin nhin v Mi trng TP. H Ch Minh, truy cp ngy 01/12/2011 ti a ch: http://moitruongxanhhcm.org.vn/index.php/Van-ban/bao-cao-tinh-hinh-kinh-t- xa-hi-thanh-ph-nm-2011-va-phng-hng-nhim-v-phat-trin-kinh-t-xa-hi-nm-2012.html
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41 PH LC Ph lc 1. Quy hoch h thng Metro Quy hoch h thng MRT ca thnh ph c Th tng ph duyt vo thng 01/2007 gm cc tuyn nh hnh 3-1. Mng li ng st th bao gm 06 tuyn ng st metro, 02 tuyn monorail v 01 tuyn xe in mt t vi tng chiu di 109km vi cc hng tuyn nh sau: 6 tuyn Metro xuyn tm v vnh khuyn ni cc trung tm chnh ca thnh ph, bao gm: Tuyn s 1: Bn Thnh - Sui Tin; Tuyn s 2: Bn xe Ty Ninh - Trng Chinh - Tam Lng - Cch Mng Thng Tm - Bn Thnh - Th Thim; Tuyn s 3: Quc l 13 - Bn xe Min ng - X Vit Ngh Tnh - Nguyn Th Minh Khai - Trn Ph - Hng Vng - Hng Bng - Cy G Tuyn s 4: Cu Bn Ct - ng Thng Nht - ng 26/3 (d kin) - Nguyn Oanh - Nguyn Kim - Phan nh Phng - Hai B Trng - Bn Thnh - Nguyn Thi Hc - Khnh Hi - L Vn Lng - Nguyn Vn Linh; Tuyn s 5: Bn xe Cn Giuc mi - Quc l 50 - Tng Thin Vng - L Thng Kit - Hong Vn Th - Phan ng Lu - Bch ng - in Bin Ph - cu Si Gn; Tuyn s 6: B Quo - u C - Lu Bn Bch - Tn Ho - Vng xoay Ph Lm; Ba tuyn xe in mt t (tramway hoc monorail) Tuyn s 1: Si Gn (bn Bch ng) - Ch Ln - bn xe min Ty di 12,5km. Lin danh Cng ty TNHH xy dng v thng mi Thanh Danh v Tietainium Management (Malaysia) ang ngh t xy dng theo hnh thc BOT. Tuyn s 2: Q.2 - Nguyn Vn Linh (Q.7) - quc l 50 (Q.8). Tuyn s 3: ng su G Vp - cng vin phn mm Quang Trung (Q.12). Ch u t d n H thng xe in Metro l Ban Qun l ng st th (MAUR) c thnh lp theo Quyt nh s 119/2007/Q-UBND ngy 13/9/2007 ca UBND TPHCM, c nhim v lm ch u t v qun l, vn hnh, khai thc cc tuyn ng st th ca thnh ph.
42
Ph lc 2. Bng iu tra kho st s b
TH NG
Xin cho Anh/Ch, Ti tn l ng Th Ngc Dung, ang hc tp ti trng i hc Kinh t TP. HCM. Hin ti ang nghin cu ti Cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng tu in ngm Metro ca ngi dn ti TP. HCM. Ti rt mong s h tr ca Anh/Ch bng vic tr li cc cu hi sau y. Ni dung tr li ca qu Anh/Ch ch s dng cho mc ch nghin cu v c trnh by dng thng k. Cc thng tin c nhn ca ngi tr li s c gi b mt v khng tit l ra bn ngoi. V vy, ti rt mong qu Anh/Ch vui lng tr li mt cch trung thc, khch quan cc cu hi nhm gip kt qu nghin cu phn nh ng thc t. Chn thnh cm n Anh/Ch.
43 M T H THNG METRO
Metro l phng tin vn chuyn hnh khch khi lng ln chy bng ng ray. Hin ti, TP. HCM ang khi cng xy dng 6 tuyn Metro vi l trnh d kin nh sau:
Tuyn 1: Bn Thnh Sui Tin Tuyn 2: Bn xe Ty Ninh - Trng Chinh - Tham Lng - Cch Mng Thng Tm - Bn Thnh - Th Thim Tuyn 3: Quc l 13 - Bn xe Min ng - X Vit Ngh Tnh - Nguyn Th Minh Khai - Trn Ph - Hng Vng - Hng Bng - Cy G Tuyn 4: Cu Bn Ct - ng Thng Nht - ng 26/3 (d kin) - Nguyn Oanh - Nguyn Kim - Phan nh Phng - Hai B Trng -Bn Thnh - Nguyn Thi Hc - Khnh Hi - L Vn Lng - Nguyn Vn Linh Tuyn s 5: Bn xe Cn Giuc mi - Quc l 50 - Tng Thin Vng - L Thng Kit - Hong Vn Th - Phan ng Lu - Bch ng - in Bin Ph - cu Si Gn Tuyn s 6: B Quo - u C - Lu Bn Bch - Tn Ho - Vng xoay Ph Lm;
44 Xin Anh/Ch vui lng tr li cc cu hi di y bng cch nh du x vo cu tr li 1. Anh/Ch c bit g v Metro hay khng? Cha bit Ch bit qua bo, i, internet tng s dng nc ngoi 2. Anh ch vui lng cho bit phng tin thng xuyn s dng trong 6 thng qua i b Xe but Xe p Xe my Xe hi 3. Khong cch trung bnh m Anh/Ch di chuyn trong ngy Di 3.5 km/ln T 3.5 km n di 7 km/ln T 7 km n di 15 km/ln T 15 km/ln tr ln 4. Quy hoch Metro (xem tr. 2) c i qua nh hoc trng hc/ c quan m Anh/Ch di chuyn hng ngy hay khng C Khng Khng bit
CC YU T NH HNG N NH S DNG XE IN METRO Anh/Ch vui lng cho bit mc ng i vi tng cu nhn nh di y
1: rt khng ng 5: rt ng
STT S hu ch ca Metro Mc ng A1 Ti ngh s dng Metro thun tin 1 2 3 4 5 A2 Ti ngh s dng Metro an ton 1 2 3 4 5 A3 Ti ngh di chuyn bng Metro thoi mi 1 2 3 4 5 A4 Ti ngh chi ph s dng Metro thp 1 2 3 4 5 A5 Ti ngh s dng Metro gip ti tit kim c thi gian (c tnh n thi gian i b v ch i) 1 2 3 4 5 A6 Ti c th t ch v mt thi gian khi s dng Metro 1 2 3 4 5
45 S hp dn ca Phng tin c nhn (PTCN) Mc ng B1 Ti ngh s dng PTCN thun tin hn Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B2 PTCN gip ti i n bt k ni no ti mun trong khu vc TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5 B3 Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN nhanh hn Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B4 Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN gip ti t ch v mt thi gian hn so vi Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B5 Ti ngh chi ph s dng PTCN thp hn Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B6 Ti quen vi vic s dng PTCN hng ngy 1 2 3 4 5
Chun ch quan (hay nh hng ca x hi) Mc ng C1 Gia nh khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5 C2 Bn b khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5 C3 C quan/ trng hc khuyn ti s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5 C4 Chnh quyn thnh ph c cc bin php khuyn khch s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5
Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi Mc ng D1 i vi ti, vic s dng Metro l d dng 1 2 3 4 5 D2 Vic s dng Metro hon ton do ti quyt nh 1 2 3 4 5
Nhn thc v mi trng Mc ng E1 S dng xe my nhiu lm tng nhim mi trng TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5 E2 S dng xe my nhiu lm tng tai nn giao thng TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5 E3 S dng xe my nhiu lm tng tc nghn giao thng TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5
nh s dng Metro Mc ng F1 Ti c nh s dng Metro 1 2 3 4 5 F1 Ti c nh s dng Metro thng xuyn 1 2 3 4 5 F2 Ti c nh khuyn gia nh/ bn b s dng Metro 1 2 3 4 5 46 THNG TIN C NHN 1. Gii tnh ca Anh/Ch: Nam N 2. Ni ti TP. HCM: Qun/ Huyn: 3. Ni lm vic ca Anh/Ch: Qun/ Huyn: 4. Xin vui lng cho bit tui ca Anh/Ch: Di 18 tui T 18 n di 22 tui T 22 tui n di 30 tui T 30 tui n di 40 tui T 40 tui n di 50 tui Trn 50 tui 5. Tnh trng hn nhn ca bn: Cha c gia nh c gia nh v cha c con c gia nh v c con 6. Trnh hc vn ca Anh/Ch: <= 12 i hc/ Cao ng Sau i hc 7. Ngh nghip ca Anh/Ch Hc sinh/ Sinh vin Cng nhn Nhn vin vn phng Doanh nhn/ Nh qun l Ngh hu Khc: 8. Xin vui lng cho bit thu nhp ca Anh/Ch: Di 5 triu ng/ thng T 5 n di 10 triu ng/ thng T 10 n di 15 triu ng/ thng T 15 triu ng/ thng tr ln kin ng gp ca Anh/chi cho bng cu hi s b 47 Ph lc 3. Bo co ni dung kho st s b 1. S lng mu v i tng kho st s b: 37 i tng c hiu bit v Metro Thng k m t v cc i tng c kho st s b Tui
Hn nhn 18-22 10 27%
Cha 31 84% 22-30 21 57%
C gia nh 2 5% 30-40 6 16%
C con 4 11% Ni
Trnh Q2 6 16%
H 22 59% Q3 4 11%
Sau H 15 41% Q8 2 5% Tn Bnh 17 46% Ngh nghip Ph Nhun 2 5%
Sinh vin 12 32% Bnh Thnh 4 11%
NVVP 23 62% Th c 2 5%
Doanh nhn 2 5% Ni lm vic
Thu nhp Q1 11 30%
Di 5 10 27% Q3 6 16%
5-10 16 43% Q8 2 5%
10-15 8 22% Q10 6 16%
trn 15 3 8% Q12 2 5% Bnh Thnh 8 22%
Gii tnh Tn Bnh 0 0%
Nam 21 57% Th c 2 5%
N 16 43% Ngun: Tng hp ca tc gi 48 2. Kt qu phn tch tin cy Kt qu phn tch tin cy cho thy, ch c nhm nhn t S hp dn ca PTCN c h s Cronbachs Alpha nh hn 0,6. Do , s xem xt loi b hoc gi li nhm nhn t ny. Nhm yu t Cronbachs Alpha Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro 0,813 S hp dn ca phng tin c nhn 0,440 nh hng ca x hi 0,719 Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi 0,727 Nhn thc v mi trng 0,861 3. Ni dung gp i vi cc nhm nhn t: Nhn chung cc i tng c phng vn ng vi cc nhm nhn t tc ng n nh s dng Metro. Tuy nhin, c mt s kin gp v t ng din gii cho bng cu hi v tc gi s sa li theo nhng gp ny, c th nh sau: i vi thang o A4 t thp s khin ngi c kho st ngh n s tin tuyt i phi b ra s dng l thp hay cao. Mt s kin cho rng nn thay i t thp thnh l r o lng c s nh gi ca ngi dn v gi v, chi ph ca phng tin l r (hoc phi chng) hay khng so vi nhng ch li m n em li. i vi thang o B3, nn thay t nhanh bng t tit kim thi gian ni ln li ch ca PTCN, trnh nhm ln l tc nhanh. i vi nhm Nhn thc v mi trng, nhiu kin cho rng nn hi trc tip nhn thc ca ngi dn v mi trng khi s dng Metro hn l khi s dng xe my. V th, nghin cu cng xut thay i nhm nhn t ny theo kin kho st s b. Bng cu hi iu tra kho st chnh thc c trnh by Ph lc 4. 49 Ph lc 4. Bng hi iu tra kho st chnh thc
TH NG
Xin cho Anh/Ch, Ti tn l ng Th Ngc Dung, ang hc tp ti trng i hc Kinh t TP. HCM. Hin ti ang nghin cu ti Cc yu t nh hng n nh s dng tu in ngm Metro ca ngi dn ti TP. HCM. Ti rt mong s h tr ca Anh/Ch bng vic tr li cc cu hi sau y. Ni dung tr li ca qu Anh/Ch ch s dng cho mc ch nghin cu v c trnh by dng thng k. Cc thng tin c nhn ca ngi tr li s c gi b mt v khng tit l ra bn ngoi. V vy, ti rt mong qu Anh/Ch vui lng tr li mt cch trung thc, khch quan cc cu hi nhm gip kt qu nghin cu phn nh ng thc t. Chn thnh cm n Anh/Ch.
50 M T H THNG METRO
Metro l phng tin vn chuyn hnh khch khi lng ln chy bng ng ray. Hin ti, TP. HCM ang khi cng xy dng 6 tuyn Metro vi l trnh d kin nh sau:
Tuyn 1: Bn Thnh KDL Vn Thnh Tho in Phc Long Bnh Thi Cng vin k thut cao - Sui Tin Tuyn 2: Bn xe Ty Ninh - Trng Chinh - Tham Lng - Cch Mng Thng Tm - Bn Thnh - Th Thim Tuyn 3: Quc l 13 - Bn xe Min ng - X Vit Ngh Tnh - Nguyn Th Minh Khai - Trn Ph - Hng Vng - Hng Bng - Cy G Tuyn 4: Cu Bn Ct - ng Thng Nht - ng 26/3 (d kin) - Nguyn Oanh - Nguyn Kim - Phan nh Phng - Hai B Trng -Bn Thnh - Nguyn Thi Hc - Khnh Hi - L Vn Lng - Nguyn Vn Linh Tuyn s 5: Bn xe Cn Giuc mi - Quc l 50 - Tng Thin Vng - L Thng Kit - Hong Vn Th - Phan ng Lu - Bch ng - in Bin Ph - cu Si Gn Tuyn s 6: B Quo - u C - Lu Bn Bch - Tn Ho - Vng xoay Ph Lm;
51 Xin Anh/Ch vui lng tr li cc cu hi di y bng cch nh du x vo cu tr li 1. Anh/Ch c bit g v Metro hay khng? Cha bit Ch bit qua bo, i, internet tng s dng nc ngoi 2. Anh ch vui lng cho bit phng tin thng xuyn s dng trong 6 thng qua? i b Xe but Xe p Xe my Xe hi 3. Khong cch trung bnh m Anh/Ch di chuyn trong ngy Di 3.5 km/ln T 3.5 km n di 7 km/ln T 7 km n di 15 km/ln T 15 km/ln tr ln 4. Quy hoch Metro (xem tr. 2) c i qua nh hoc trng hc/ c quan m Anh/Ch di chuyn hng ngy hay khng C Khng Khng bit
CC YU T NH HNG N NH S DNG XE IN Metro Anh/Ch vui lng cho bit mc ng i vi tng cu nhn nh di y 1: rt khng ng 5: rt ng
STT S hu ch ca Metro Mc ng A1 Ti ngh s dng Metro thun tin 1 2 3 4 5 A2 Ti ngh s dng Metro an ton 1 2 3 4 5 A3 Ti ngh di chuyn bng Metro thoi mi 1 2 3 4 5 A4 Ti ngh chi ph s dng Metro l r 1 2 3 4 5 A5 Ti ngh s dng Metro gip ti tit kim c thi gian (c tnh n thi gian i b v ch i) 1 2 3 4 5 A6 Ti c th t ch v mt thi gian khi s dng Metro 1 2 3 4 5
52 S hp dn ca Phng tin c nhn (PTCN) Mc ng B1 Ti ngh s dng PTCN thun tin hn Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B2 PTCN gip ti i n bt k ni no ti mun trong khu vc TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5 B3 Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN tit kim thi gian hn so vi Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B4 Ti ngh di chuyn bng PTCN gip ti t ch v mt thi gian hn so vi Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B5 Ti ngh chi ph s dng PTCN thp hn so vi Metro 1 2 3 4 5 B6 Ti quen vi vic s dng PTCN hng ngy 1 2 3 4 5
Chun ch quan (hay nh hng ca x hi) Mc ng C1 Gia nh khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5 C2 Bn b khuyn ti nn s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5 C3 C quan/ trng hc khuyn ti s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5 C4 Chnh quyn thnh ph c cc bin php khuyn khch s dng Metro v n c nh hng n s la chn ca ti 1 2 3 4 5
Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi Mc ng D1 i vi ti, vic s dng Metro l d dng 1 2 3 4 5 D2 Vic s dng Metro hon ton do ti quyt nh 1 2 3 4 5
Nhn thc v mi trng Mc ng E1 S dng Metro gip gim bt nhim mi trng TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5 E2 S dng Metro gip gim bt tai nn giao thng TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5 E3 S dng Metro gip gim bt tc nghn giao thng TP. HCM 1 2 3 4 5
nh s dng Metro Mc ng F1 Ti c nh s dng Metro 1 2 3 4 5 F2 Ti c nh s dng Metro thng xuyn 1 2 3 4 5 F3 Ti c nh khuyn gia nh/ bn b s dng Metro 1 2 3 4 5
53 THNG TIN C NHN 1. Gii tnh ca Anh/Ch: Nam N 2. Ni ti TP. HCM: Qun/ Huyn: ... 3. Ni lm vic ca Anh/Ch: Qun/ Huyn: .. 4. Xin vui lng cho bit tui ca Anh/Ch: Di 18 tui T 18 n di 22 tui T 22 tui n di 30 tui T 30 tui n di 40 tui T 40 tui n di 50 tui Trn 50 tui
5. Tnh trng hn nhn ca bn: Cha c gia nh c gia nh v cha c con c gia nh v c con
6. Trnh hc vn ca Anh/Ch: <= 12 i hc/ Cao ng Sau i hc
7. Ngh nghip ca Anh/Ch Hc sinh/ Sinh vin Cng nhn Nhn vin vn phng Doanh nhn/ Nh qun l Ngh hu Khc: ..
8. Xin vui lng cho bit thu nhp ca Anh/Ch: Di 5 triu ng/ thng T 5 n di 10 triu ng/ thng T 10 n di 15 triu ng/ thng T 15 triu ng/ thng tr ln
Chn thnh cm n s gip ca Anh/ch.
54 Ph lc 5. Thng k m t v tn s v c trng ca c nhn c kho st Gii tnh S lng Tn sut Nam 105 46,67% N 120 53,33%
Tui S lng Tn sut Di 22 tui 78 34,66% T 23 n 30 tui 103 45,78% T 30 tui n 40 tui 30 13,34% Trn 40 tui 14 6,22%
Tnh trng hn nhn S lng Tn sut Cha c gia nh 151 67,11% c gia nh v cha c con 21 9,33% c gia nh v c con 53 23,56%
Trnh S lng Tn sut Ph thng 24 10,67% Cao ng/ i hc 138 61,33% Sau i hc 63 28,00%
Ngh nghip S lng Tn sut Hc sinh Sinh vin 77 34,22% Nhn vin vn phng 86 38,22% K s 22 9,78% Gio vin/ Ging vin 17 7,56% Khc 23 10,22%
Thu nhp S lng Tn sut Di 5 triu ng 105 46,67% T 5 n di 10 triu ng 68 30,22% T 10 n di 15 triu ng 25 11,11% Trn 15 triu ng 27 12,00%
55 Ph lc 6. Thng k m t v tn s v c trng ca lin quan n Metro Anh/Ch c bit g v Metro hay khng?
S lng Tn sut Ch bit qua bo, i, internet 169 75,11% tng s dng nc ngoi 56 24,89%
Anh ch vui lng cho bit phng tin thng xuyn s dng trong 6 thng qua
S lng Tn sut i b 0 0,00% Xe but 36 16,00% Xe p 9 4,00% Xe my 169 75,11% Xe hi 11 4,89%
Quy hoch Metro c i l trnh di chuyn hng ngy ca Anh/Ch hay khng
S lng Tn sut C 89 39,56% Khng 111 49,33% Khng bit 25 11,11%
56 Ph lc 7. Thng k m t
Descriptive Statistics
N Mean Std. Deviation A1 225 3,74 ,832 A2 225 3,99 ,773 A3 225 3,84 ,835 A4 225 3,50 ,846 A5 225 3,36 1,048 A6 225 3,12 ,989 B1 219 3,80 1,006 B2 220 4,34 ,836 B3 219 3,08 ,990 B4 218 4,05 ,891 B5 220 3,61 ,897 B6 218 3,83 1,013 C1 225 3,05 ,937 C2 225 3,02 ,928 C3 225 3,10 ,963 C4 225 3,51 ,917 D1 225 3,60 ,877 D2 225 4,28 ,725 E1 225 4,32 ,781 E2 225 4,34 ,763 E3 225 4,32 ,810 Valid N (listwise) 102 57 Ph lc 8. Phn tch tng quan gia cc bin nhm Nhn thc s hu ch ca Metro vi nhau v vi bin ph thuc nh s dng Metro
Scale Mean if Item Deleted Scale Variance if Item Deleted Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted C1 9,63 5,512 0,786 0,784 C2 9,65 5,406 0,829 0,766 C3 9,58 5,415 0,781 0,786 C4 9,17 6,864 0,446 0,917
4. Nhn thc kim sot hnh vi Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha N of Items 0,535 2
Item Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N D1 3,60 0,877 225 D2 4,28 0,725 225
62
Item-Total Statistics
Scale Mean if Item Deleted Scale Variance if Item Deleted Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted D1 4,28 0,526 0,371 .(a) D2 3,60 0,769 0,371 .(a) a The value is negative due to a negative average covariance among items. This violates reliability model assumptions. You may want to check item codings.
5. Nhn thc v mi trng Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha N of Items 0,875 3 Item Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N E1 4,32 0,781 225 E2 4,34 0,763 225 E3 4,32 0,810 225 Item-Total Statistics
Scale Mean if Item Deleted Scale Variance if Item Deleted Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted E1 8,66 2,146 0,735 0,846 E2 8,64 2,081 0,806 0,783 E3 8,65 2,058 0,741 0,842
6. nh s dng Metro Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha N of Items 0,798 3 Item Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N F1 3,98 0,879 225 F2 3,19 0,941 225 F3 3,53 0,866 225
Item-Total Statistics
Scale Mean if Item Deleted Scale Variance if Item Deleted Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach's Alpha if Item Deleted F1 6,72 2,569 0,639 0,727 F2 7,51 2,331 0,670 0,694 F3 7,16 2,647 0,619 0,748 63
Ph lc 10. Kt qu phn tch nhn t Ph lc 10.1 Kt qu phn tch nhn t ln 1
Kim nh KMO and Bartlett's
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. 0,811 Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 1987,281 df 210 Sig. 0,000
Ma trn xoay nhn t (ln 1)
Nhn t 1 2 3 4 5 A1 0,666 A4 0,740 A5 0,784 A6 0,634 B1 0,723 B2 0,673 B4 0,775 B5 0,679 B6 0,708 C1 0,882 C2 0,898 C3 0,877 C4 0,555 E1 0,835 E2 0,865 E3 0,833 A3 0,540 A2 0,655 B3 0,469 D2 0,452 D1 0,599 Phng php rt trch cc nhn t: Principal Axis Factoring Phng php xoay cc nhn t: Promax with Kaiser Normalization Trng s (factor loading) nh hn 0,5 b loi 64
B3 0,498 D1 0,465 Phng php rt trch cc nhn t: Principal Axis Factoring Phng php xoay cc nhn t: Promax with Kaiser Normalization Trng s (factor loading) nh hn 0,5 b loi
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method 1 EA, AA, SN, PU(a) . Enter a All requested variables entered. b Dependent Variable: IT
Model Summary(b)
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1 0,695(a) 0,483 0,473 0,54419 2,118 a Predictors: (Constant), EA, AA, SN, PU b Dependent Variable: IT
ANOVA(b)
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 59,489 4 14,872 50,220 0,000(a) Residual 63,671 215 0,296 Total 123,160 219 a Predictors: (Constant), EA, AA, SN, PU b Dependent Variable: IT
Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
Model B Std.Error Beta t Sig. 2. (Constant) 0,975 0,346 2,822 0,005 PU 0,406 0,063 0,364 6,405 0,000 AA -0,201 0,056 -0,182 -3,570 0,000 SN 0,203 0,051 0,242 4,526 0,000 EA 0,280 0,059 0,263 4,766 0,000 b. Dependent Variable: IT Correlatations Collinearity Statistics Model Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF 2. (Constant) PU 0,583 0,400 0,314 0,743 1,345 AA -0,234 -0,237 -0,175 0,925 1,081 SN 0,464 0,295 0,222 0,842 1,187 EA 0,442 0,309 0,234 0,792 1,262 77
Gii tnh N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 0 120 3,49 0,778 0,071 1 105 3,65 0,723 0,071
Independent Samples test Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed Levenes Test for Equality of Variances F 0,087 Sig. 0,769 t-test for Equality of Mean t -1,641 -1,649 df 223 222,153 Sig. (2-tailed) 0,102 0,101 Mean Difference -0,165 -0,165 Std.Error Difference 0,101 0,100 95% confidence interval of the difference Lower -0,363 0,033 Upper -0,362 0,032
2. Tui Test of Homogeneity of Variances
Levene Statistic df1 df2 Sig. 0,883 5 219 0,493
ANOVA
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Between Groups 3,088 5 0,618 1,083 0,370 Within Groups 124,851 219 0,570 Total 127,939 224
78
3. Tnh trng hn nhn gia nh Test of Homogeneity of Variances
Levene Statistic df1 df2 Sig. 0,603 2 222 0,548
ANOVA
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Between Groups 0,502 2 0,251 0,437 0,647 Within Groups 127,437 222 0,574 Total 127,939 224 4. Trnh hc vn Test of Homogeneity of Variances
Levene Statistic df1 df2 Sig. 0,132 2 222 0,876
ANOVA
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Between Groups 1,734 2 0,867 1,525 0,220 Within Groups 126,205 222 0,568 Total 127,939 224
5. Thu nhp Test of Homogeneity of Variances
Levene Statistic df1 df2 Sig. 1,869 3 221 0,136
ANOVA
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Between Groups 1,443 3 0,481 0,840 0,473 Within Groups 126,496 221 0,572 Total 127,939 224