Month

Price
Change
9-Jan
1.47
0
9-Feb
1.26 -14.30%
9-Mar
1.27
0.71%
9-Apr
1.37
7.97%
9-May
1.49
8.69%
9-Jun
1.81
21.30%
9-Jul
1.71
-5.15%
9-Aug
1.89
10.11%
9-Sep
1.75
-7.21%
9-Oct
1.94
11.03%
9-Nov
1.99
2.27%
9-Dec
1.98
-0.35%
10-Jan
2.05
3.69%
10-Feb
1.99
-3.07%
10-Mar
2.11
5.98%
10-Apr
2.24
6.40%
10-May
2.06
-8.02%
10-Jun
2.06
-0.24%
10-Jul
2.02
-1.90%
10-Aug
2.08
3.17%
10-Sep
2.11
1.49%
10-Oct
2.25
6.34%
10-Nov
2.32
3.34%
10-Dec
2.45
5.60%
11-Jan
2.62
6.77%
11-Feb
2.84
8.40%
11-Mar
3.13
10.07%
11-Apr
3.27
4.54%
11-May
3.09
-5.57%
11-Jun
3.05
-1.23%
11-Jul
3.13
2.76%
11-Aug
3.01
-3.93%
11-Sep
2.95
-1.99%
11-Oct
2.97
0.61%
11-Nov
3.05
2.70%
11-Dec
2.87
-5.68%
12-Jan
3.09
7.45%
12-Feb
3.21
3.89%
12-Mar
3.26
1.53%
12-Apr
3.23
-0.92%
12-May
2.97
-7.81%
12-Jun
2.68
-9.89%
12-Jul
2.89
7.91%
12-Aug
3.16
9.13%
12-Sep
3.19
1.11%

2010
1068

2011
417
-0.609550562
LUV
Actual FCF

2010
2011
2012
2013

1068
417
716
1030

2014

2015

12-Oct
12-Nov
12-Dec
13-Jan
13-Feb
13-Mar
13-Apr
13-May
13-Jun
13-Jul
13-Aug
13-Sep
13-Oct
13-Nov
13-Dec
14-Jan

3.11
2.96
2.94
3.09
3.22
2.97
2.81
2.73
2.77
2.89
3
2.93
2.89
2.83
2.96
2.92

-2.63%
-4.73%
-0.68%
5.14%
4.11%
-7.74%
-5.42%
-2.96%
1.61%
4.51%
3.77%
-2.30%
-1.67%
-1.91%
4.42%
-1.15%

2012
2013
716
1030 Average Change
0.717026379 0.438547
0.18
JF
Average Yearly Price per Gallon
2.15
3
3.06
2.92

2016

1
0.078425217
0.718991056

LUV
JF

2017

2018

2019

2020

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Average Price per Gallon

LUV

JF

1
-0.628873885

2021

2022

2023

2024

ession Statistics
0.628873885
0.395482363
0.093223545
289.9949883
4

df
1
2
3

SS
MS
F
Significance F
110034.5635 110034.6 1.308423
0.371126115
168194.1865 84097.09
278228.75

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
2059.996641
1104.312698 1.865411 0.203118
-450.0437163
393.4419213 -1.14386 0.371126

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
-2691.477403 6811.471 -2691.48 6811.471
-2142.887673
1242.8 -2142.89
1242.8

Upper 95.0%

Data Series:
Distribution:
Best Fit:
Anderson-Darling
P-Value:

Price
2.52
Triangular
1.5836
---

Ranked By: Anderson-Darling

Data Series
Price
Distribution
Triangular
Min Extreme
Weibull
Logistic
Normal
Gamma
Lognormal
Max Extreme
Uniform
Student's t
Pareto
Beta
Exponential
BetaPERT

A-D
1.5836
2.3155
2.6116
2.6854
2.8386
2.9106
3.2821
3.3290
8.7918
9.7090
11.2472
14.0773
16.9016
19.6671

A-D P-Value
--0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
------0.000
---

Parameters
Minimum=1.00392, Likeliest=3.27, Maximum=3.28634
Likeliest=2.83096, Scale=0.43029
Location=0.63127, Scale=2.14185, Shape=3.66267
Mean=2.62746, Scale=0.3539
Mean=2.56311, Std. Dev.=0.58684
Location=-16.03725, Scale=0.01862, Shape=999
Mean=2.56818, Std. Dev.=0.65209, Location=-0.6188
Likeliest=2.25567, Scale=0.61336
Minimum=1.22758, Maximum=3.30242
Midpoint=2.56311, Scale=0.19394, Deg. Freedom=1
Location=1.24581, Shape=1.44739
Minimum=1.26346, Maximum=3.19103, Alpha=0.95014, Beta=0.45905
Rate=0.39015
Minimum=1.00392, Likeliest=3.27, Maximum=3.28634

221866948.xlsx.ms_office
Crystal Ball Report - Assumptions

Page 11

221866948.xlsx.ms_office
Assumptions

Worksheet: [Book2]Batch Fit Fuel Prices

Assumption: Price
Triangular distribution with parameters:
Minimum
Likeliest
Maximum

Cell: G13

1.
3.27
3.29

End of Assumptions

Page 12