Chng 4 Dn s v Mi trng

4.1. nh ngha

Dn s (population) l i lng tuyt i con ngi trong mt n v hnh chnh hay mt quc gia, mt chu lc hoc c hnh tinh chng ta ti mt thi im nht nh.
Dn s ca mt cng ng, mt quc gia ph thuc vo qu trnh sinh t. Ngoi ra cn ph thuc vo mt s yu t khc nh kt hn, ly hn v c bit l xut nhp c.

Chng 4 Dn s v Mi trng
4.2 Mi quan h dn s - ti nguyn v pht trin

Mi trng

Ti nguyn

Dn s

Pht trin

4.2 Mi quan h... (tip)

Dn s & ti nguyn t ai 70.000km2/nm t b hoang mc ha do tng dn s Hoang mc e da 1/3 din tch tri t, nh hng cuc sng t nht 850 triu ngi VN t 1978 n nay mt 130.000ha cho thy li, 63.000 ha cho PT giao thng; 21.000 ha cho PT cng nghip Dn s & ti nguyn rng Dn s tng, thu hp din tch rng. Rng nhit i b tn ph 15 triu/nm Rng tn ph kin khong 26 t tn t b mt b ra tri, thin tai, l lt xy ra VN: c tng dn s 1% dn n 2.5% rng b mt
3

4.2. Mi quan h... (tip)

Dn s v ti nguyn nc

Lm gim din tch b mt ao, h v sng

Lm nhim cc ngun nc do cht thi Lm thay i ch thy vn

Dn s v kh quyn
Vic gia tng dn s chu gn 2/3 trch nhim v gia tng lng CO2 Vn nhim ton cu

4.3 S gia tng dn s th gii v dn s hc

S tng dn s TG qua cc th k

Ngun: http://www.sd-m.de/images/WorldPopulation1000-2300.JPG

4.3. S gia tng dn s th gii v dn s hc

Dn s (triu ngi)

2015

10 thnh ph trng im trn th gii

(Ngun: D liu cung cp bi World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision)

Nhng khu nh chut vng ngoi Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Ngun: http://www.fmpsd.ab.ca/schools/df/Brazil/rslums.htm

Khu nh chut TP HCM

4.3 S gia tng dn s th gii v dn s hc

4.3 S gia tng dn s th gii v dn s hc

T l tng dn s th gii

T l tng (%)

Nm
Ngun:

4.4 Cc quan im v dn s hc

Thuyt Malthus
Dn s tng theo cp s nhn; cn lng thc, thc phm, phng tin sinh hot ch tng theo cp s cng S gia tng dn s din ra vi nhp khng i, cn s gia tng v lng thc, thc phm c gii hn bi cc iu kin (din tch, nng sut) Dn c trn tri t pht trin nhanh hn kh nng nui sng n. T , i kh, o c xung cp, ti c s pht trin

10

4.4 Cc quan im v dn s hc

Thuyt qu dn s
L thuyt nghin cu s bin i dn s qua cc thi k, da vo nhng c trng c bn ca ng lc dn s. Thuyt ny tp trung nghin cu v l gii vn pht trin dn s thng qua vic xem xt mc sinh, t qua tng giai on theo quy lut Thuyt ny gm 3 giai on:
Giai on 1 (hoc giai on trc qu dn s): mc sinh v mc t u cao, dn s tng chm. Giai on 2 (giai on qu dn s): mc sinh v mc t u gim nhng mc t gim nhanh hn nhiu, dn s tng nhanh Giai on 3 (giai on sau qu dn s): mc sinh v mc t u thp, dn s tng chm tin ti s n nh v dn s

11

4.4 Cc quan im v dn s hc

Hc thuyt Mc-Leenin v vn dn s
Mi hnh thc kinh t x hi c quy lut dn s tng ng vi n. Phng thc sn xut nh th no th s c quy lut pht trin dn s nh th y. Sn xut vt cht v ti sn xut dn c l nhn t quyt nh s pht trin ca x hi loi ngi Cn c vo nhng iu kin c th v t nhin, kinh t, x hi, mi quc gia phi c trch nhim xc nh s dn ti u c th m bo s hng thnh ca t nc v nng cao cht lng cuc sng ca mi ngi dn. Con ngi c kh nng iu khin cc qu trnh dn s theo mong mun ca mnh nhm phc v cho s pht trin ca x hi, ci thin i sng vt cht v tinh thn ca nhn dn.
12

4.5 Qu trnh dn s

1. Qu trnh Sinh: ph thuc vo nhiu yu t khc nhau nh hn nhn, gia nh, li sng v c cu gia nh, chc nng gia nh. Sinh nhm p ng nhu cu hot ng ca gia nh v duy tr ni ging. Cc ch bo T l sinh th hay mc sinh (Crude birth rate)

CBR = (S tr sinh ra trong nm /Tng s dn nm) x 1000

CBR < 20% = thp : cc nc PT 20%<CBR < 30%: Mc sinh trung bnh 30% <CBR < 40%: Mc sinh cao: cc nc ngho v ang pht trin CBR > 40%: Mc sinh rt cao

4.5 Qu trnh dn s

T l sinh sn chung GFR (General fertility rate): Ch s lng con ra ca 1000 ph n tui t 15-44, tc l nhm tui sinh ca n gii
Chu u: 1-2 con, Chu : 4-5 con; Chu Phi v M La Tinh>5 con

T l sinh nguyn (NRR = Net Reproductive Rate) ca DS l t l s ph n ca th h ny trn s ph n th h tip theo. Nu NRR >1 NRR <1 NRR = 1 DS ang tng; DS ang gim; DS ang n nh

T l sinh sn tng s (TFR= Total Fertility Rate) l s con sinh ra tnh cho 1 cp v chng
TFR > 4,2 : cao; = 3,2 4,1: TB cao; =2,2 - 3.1: TB thp; < 2,1
14

4.5 Qu trnh dn s

Cc yu t nh hng n mc Sinh:
- Tnh hnh hn nhn: Tui kt hn l nhn t quan trng hng u - Nhn t tm l x hi: x hi nng nghip, iu kin chnh tr - iu kin sng: mc sng v sc khe - Trnh dn tr

4.5 Qu trnh dn s

2. Qu trnh t vong T l cht th ( CDR = Crude Death Rate) hay T l t th CDR = (s ngi cht trong nm/Dn s nm) x 1000 CDR < 11% : thp <11% CDR < 15% : trung bnh 15%< CDR < 25 % : cao

25% < CDR :

rt cao

4.5 Qu trnh dn s

2. Qu trnh t vong Cc nhn t nh hng n mc t vong - Chin tranh - i km v dch bnh - Tai nn

4.5 Qu trnh dn s

3. Gia tng dn s t nhin

T l tng dn s (Growth rate) = r hay T l tng DS t nhin

r = CBR CDR v cng tnh trn 1000 u ngi dn Trng hp t s sinh bng t s cht c gi l DS tng trng khng (ZPG = Zero Population Growth)

18

4.6 Lch s tng dn s nhn loi

Giai on t khi thy ti cuc CM nng nghip n nm 7000 5500 trc CN

T tin loi ngi xut hin vi triu nm trc y c tnh c khong 125.000 ngi v tp trung sng ni m ngy nay gi l Chu Phi

T l sinh khong 40%o 50%o; T l cht thp di mc t l sinh mt cht. T l tng dn s khong 0,0004%

19

4.6 Lch s tng dn s nhn loi

Giai on CM nng nghip (nm 7000 5500 trCN n nm 1650)

Cuc cch mng nng nghip ko theo s tng t l sinh v gim t l t

Tui th giai on ny cao hn giai on nguyn thy (25-30 tui)

Giai on tin cng nghip (1650 1850)

- DS Chu u & Nga tng t 103 tr. ln 144 tr. Ngi - DS Chu 1650 1750 ch tng 50 75%; - Chu M tng t 4 tr.(1790) ln 23 tr. (1850);

20

4.6 Lch s tng dn s nhn loi

Giai on chuyn tip (1850 1930)

Cc tin b v nng nghip, cng nghip, giao thng, y t lm gim t l cht Chu u t 22-24% xung 18-20%
Dn s th gii tng t 1 t n 2.5 t

Giai on th k XX
T l tng TB DSTG: 0,8%/nm Tuy nhin, vi nc Chu u gim dn (Sau th chin th 2)

21

4.7. Cu trc dn s
Ngi ta quan tm n 3 nhm tui: < 15 tui: l tim nng dn s trong tng lai gn 15 - 64 tui: nhm sinh ca dn s 65 tui: s ngi gi khng lao ng ph thuc vo x hi

4.7 Cu trc dn s

Thp dn s Italia (t 1995 n 2050)

24

4.7 Cu trc dn s

Thp dn s Iraq (t 1990 n 2050)

25

4.7. Cu trc dn s
85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Nam - 1989 N - 1989 Nam - 1979 N - 1979

Thp dn s Vit Nam (nghn ngi) (1979 v 1989) 26

-20

-15

-10

-5

10

15

4.7 Cu trc dn s

Thp dn s Vit Nam (t 1990 n 2050)

27

4.7 Cu trc dn s

Thp dn s Hoa K (t 1950 n 2050)

28

4.8 Cc chnh sch dn s v cc chng trnh dn s

4.8.1 nh ngha:
Mi chnh sch ca mt quc gia nhm thc hin phc li cho nhn dn ca quc gia u l chnh sch dn s. Cc chnh sch dn s l tr thng minh v kh nng c hu ca con ngi trong vic t chc cuc sng ca mnh, khng ch tn ti m cn sng vi nhng ngi khc na (Thompson & Lewis).

29

4.8 Cc chnh sch dn s v cc chng trnh dn s

4.8.2. Chnh sch gm mt s im sau:
Trit l tn trng cuc sng con ngi K hoch ha gia nh L mt b phn ca KHPT t nc Thu ht v s dng nng lc chuyn mn GD, phc li XH, DS hc, truyn thng Huy ng c s ng h ca chnh ph, cc c quan tnh nguyn trong cng ng

30

4.8 Cc chnh sch dn s v cc chng trnh dn s

Chnh sch chia lm 3 nhm chnh:
Nhng chnh sch nhm duy tr mt dn s n nh. Nhng chnh sch ny thng c thc thi cc nc pht trin nh an Mch, thy in Nhng chnh sch nhm hn ch tng dn s. Nhng chnh sch ny c thc thi hu ht cc nc ang pht trin, v d nh TQ, n , Vit Nam Nhng chnh sch nhm gia tng dn s, mt s nc pht trin v ang pht trin, v d nh c, Malayxia

31

4.8 Cc chnh sch dn s v cc chng trnh dn s

4.8.3. Chng trnh dn s Chng trnh dn s phi t c cc c trng sau:
p ng nhng nhu cu ca con ngi Thm nhun cc gi tr vn ha, o c

C kt qu v kh thi
c qun l bng phng thc thch hp Da trn c s o c v s t tin

Gim thiu sc lc con ngi trong nhng n lc pht trin kinh t x hi

4.9 Pht trin nhn vn v mi trng

Khi nim: Pht trin nhn vn (human development) l mt qu trnh m rng v tng cng s la chn ca con ngi. Nhng la chn quan trng nht l sng lu v khe mnh, gio dc v mc sng tm tt.

HDI (Human development index) l ch th tng hp nh

gi pht trin nhn vn 1. Tui th

2. T l % ngi ln bit ch
3. Logarith ca nhu nhp bnh qun trn u ngi tnh theo USD

4.9 Pht trin nhn vn v mi trng

HDI < 0.5 thp (chm pht trin) HDI: 0.5 n 0.799: Trung bnh HDI: >0.8 cao Ch s HDI ca mt s nc trn th gii
Tn nc Nigeria Vit Nam Thi Lan HDI(1993) 0.204 0.54 0.832

Nht Bn

0.938

4.9 Pht trin nhn vn v mi trng

Ch s HDI cc vng Vit Nam Vng Min ni Bc B ng bng Sng Hng Bc trung B HDI 0.386 0.504 0.45

Duyn Trung B
Ty Nguyn

Hi

0.46
0.322 0.46 0.41

ng Nam B ng bng SCL

4.10 Gia tng dn s v cc vn v ti nguyn v mi trng

Tc ng mi trng ca s gia tng dn s th gii c th m t bng cng thc tng qut: I = C.P.E. Trong : I (Intensity) = cng tc ng n mi trng P (Population) = yu t gia tng dn s C (Consumption) = yu t lin quan mc tiu th ti nguyn cho mt u ngi E (Effects) = yu t lin quan hu qu mi trng do tiu th mt n v ti nguyn

4.10 Gia tng dn s v cc vn v ti nguyn v mi trng

V d
Sau 20 nm, dn s tng gp 1.2 ln, mc tiu th ti nguyn u ngi tng 1.5 ln, tc ng mi trng khi tiu th 1 n v ti nguyn tng 2 ln Cng tc ng n mi trng tng?
3.6

4.10. Gia tng dn s v cc vn v ti nguyn v mi trng

Sc p ln ti ti nguyn thin nhin v mi trng tri t do khai thc qu mc cc ngun ti nguyn phc v cho cc nhu cu nh , sn xut lng thc, thc phm, sn xut cng nghip,... lm gim mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi i vi cc ngun ti nguyn ti to

To ra cc ngun thi tp trung vt qu kh nng t phn hy ca mi trng t nhin trong cc khu vc th, khu sn xut nng nghip, cng nghip.

4.10 Gia tng dn s v cc vn v ti nguyn v mi trng

S chnh lch v tc pht trin dn s gia cc nc cng nghip ha v cc nc ang pht trin gia tng, dn n s ngho i cc nc ang pht trin v s tiu ph d tha cc nc cng nghip ha S gia tng dn s th v hnh thnh cc thnh ph ln, cc siu th, lm cho mi trng khu vc th c nguy c b suy thoi nghim trng

4.10 Gia tng dn s v cc vn v ti nguyn v mi trng