Market Outlook Sensex: We said, "Watch if failure to trade above Friday leads to a negative close ..." The index failed to trade above Friday and turned weak to finish 173 points or 0.8% lower for the day. Pharma, IT, power, auto and capital goods indices lost 1-1.5% each. The Small Cap Index ended flat but the A/D ratio turned negative and finished at 1:2.
The action formed the biggest Bear candle of last 10 days, the low of which is testing the lower Grey channel as drawn. Holding the Grey channel can be positive. However, weakness and close below the candle would establish the two-day high and 80% retracement level to the preceding fall, both at 21141, as crucial resistance on the upside.
Global Indices Indices Close Change Change% Dow Jones 16168.03 -153.68 -0.94 Nasdaq 4277.30 -30.82 -0.72 FTSE 6708.35 -101.35 -1.49 DAX 9358.89 -333.19 -3.44 Hang Seng 22591.21 86.56 0.38 Nikkei 14693.07 49.37 0.34 SGX Nifty 6246.00 20.00 0.32 * Asian Market at 7:30 am.IST
Recommendations for the day 1. Sell Nifty Mar Future in range of 6270-6275 2. Buy Tech Mahindra above 1915.00 3. Buy Titan Company above 251.00 4. Sell DLF Limited below 137.20 5. Sell Indusind Bank below 393.00 *All Recommendations are of Mar Future
Daily Calls March 4, 2014 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
CNX Nifty (Cash Levels) Technical Picture Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Range bound Range bound Trend Reversal Support 6190-6160 6000 Resistance 6260-6295 6360 20 Days EMA 6156 200 days EMA 6020
Nifty Future Recommendations CMP : Comment : Action : Targets : 6240/6220/Lower Stop-loss : 6290.00 Future premium increased from 12 points to 18. Testing lower end of the Green channel shown.Reverse if holds 6260-70 Sell in the range of 6270-6275 6239.45
Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd 104.30 -1.28 105.51 76.77 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 669.95 -2.13 675.20 55.33 Bharti Airtel Ltd 286.65 -0.33 292.69 59.76 Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services L 241.50 -2.70 251.26 64.86
Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks Stocks rising for 5 days & stochastic overbought Stocks falling for 5 days & stochastic oversold Scrip Name Close Stochastic Scrip Name Close Stochastic ACC 1101.65 91.27 NMDC 129 16.62 HDFC 812.35 80.25 BHEL 162.6 83.95 Ptc India 61.8 85.87
Stocks hitting 52 week high Stocks hitting 52 week low
Scrip Name Close Scrip Name Close GAIL 369.2 NTPC 111.05 INFY 3795 Unitech 11 Natco Pharma 859.9 Tata Elxsi 635.8
Candlestick Patterns Bullish Reversal Pattern Bearish Reversal Pattern Bullish Engulfing Bearish Engulfing Scrip Name Close Scrip Name Close IDFC 95.15 Cipla 376.00 JP Power 14.00 Sun Pharma 624.90 Bullish Candle Bearish Candle Federal Bank 79.50 Kotak Bank 669.45 Titan 248.90 DLF 138.40 Tech Mahindra 1907.00 Aditya Birla Nuvo 1050.00 Dr Reddy 2817.75 Indusind Bank 391.25 Dark Cloud Cover BHEL 162.60
Note: For Candlestick pattern description refer towards the end of the report.
Global Currencies Spot Close Prev.close % Chg Rupee (|) 62.043 61.758 -0.46 Dollar Index 80.147 80.077 0.09 Euro 1.372 1.374 -0.08 British Pound 1.6642 1.6667 -0.14 Japanese Yen 101.670 101.450 -0.21 Australian ($) 0.8939 0.8938 -0.01 Swiss Franc 0.884 0.883 -0.11
Global Treasury Yields
Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%) India 10 year 8.90 8.90 US 10 Year 2.61 2.60 EURO 10 Year 1.55 1.62 GBP 10 Year 2.64 2.72 JPY 10 Year 0.58 0.58
Commodities US Dollar
Close Prev. Close %Chg Gold 1350.15 1350.61 -0.03 Copper 21.4605 21.427 0.18 Brent Crude 111.27 111.20 0.05
Source: Spider software, ICICIdirect.com Research Tech Mahindra (TECMAH) Mar Future
CMP : 1912.90 Comment : Action : Targets : 1942/1955/Higher Stop-loss : 1900.00 Price sustaining above the trendline breakout area and taking support at the 21 days EMA in the daily chart and MACD giving buy signal in the daily chart Buy above 1915.00
Trend line breakout in the daily chart and price taking support at the 21 days EMA in the daily chart
MACD giving buy signal in the daily chart and sustaining above trigger line in daily chart 21 days EMA
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Exhibit 4: Titan Company (TITIND) Daily Candlestick Chart
Source: Spider software, ICICIdirect.com Research Titan Company (TITIND) Mar Future
CMP : 250.60 Comment : Action : Targets : 256/258.50/Higher Stop-loss : 248.50 Price tading in an upward rising channel and sustaining above 200 days EMA in the daily chart Buy above 251.00
Price taking support at the lower band of the rising channel and sustaining above 200 days EMA in the daily chart
200 Days EMA ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Source: Spider software, ICICIdirect.com Research DLF Limited (DLFLIM) Mar Future
CMP : 137.90 Comment : Action : Targets : 134.40/133/Lower Stop-loss : 138.60 Price taking resistance at the 50% retracement of the previous decline and 34 days EMA in the daily chart and 14 periods RSI giving sell signal in the daily chart Sell below 137.20
RSI giving sell signal taking resistance from its nine periods average
Price taking resistance from 34 days EMA and 50% retracement of the previous major decline
34 days EMA ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Exhibit 6: IndusInd Bank (INDBA) Daily Candlestick Chart
Source: Spider software, ICICIdirect.com Research IndusInd Bank (INDBA) Mar Future
CMP : 394.05 Comment : Action : Targets : 387/384/Lower Stop-loss : 396.40 Rising channel breakdown in the daily chart and taking resistance from 55 days EMA and stochastic giving sell signal in the daily chart Sell below 393.00
Stochastic giving sell signal in the daily chart Rising channel support breached in the daily chart and taking resistance from 55 days EMA in the daily chart
55 days EMA ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Previous Days Performance Scrip Product Strategy Recommended Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment Nifty Future Sell In the range of 6300-6305 6270/6250/- 6320.00 - No Trade Tech Mahindra Future Buy above 1883.00 1908/1920/+ 1868.00 1.60 Target 2 achieved Crompton Greaves Future Buy above 130.00 132.8/134.3/+ 128.60 -1.20 Stoploss triggered Jubilaint Foods Future Sell below 1035.00 1020/1012/- 1043.50 0.40 Closed at 1031 * Return Opportunity
Nifty Points gained for the day: 0 points Gains over last 228 days: 996 points
Stock profits: Avg 0.27% per trade (Cum. Profits over last 228 days: 319.60%)
Strike Rate for the day: 2/3 (Cum strike rate over 228 days: 336/557(60%)
NOTE: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending upon the entry and exit price and stop losses ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 minutes of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation is considered not initiated The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view Trading Portfolio allocation
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products. Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation. For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 14 Recommended Trading Portfolio allocation
Allocations Return Objective Products Product wise allocation Max allocation in 1 stock Number of Calls Frontline Stocks Mid-cap stocks Duration
Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months
Technical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months
Cash in Hand 10% - - - - -
100%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 15 Candlesticks Glossary: Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the sessions range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com
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