TheFutureofComputerArchitecture

DavidPatterson
UCBerkeley

Version3:December12,2008
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ComputerArchitectureisthefieldthatdesignscomputers,whichsetsthefoundationfor
theentireITindustry.

DespitethetremendousresourcesatlargecompaniessuchasIBMandIntel,thereisalong
trackrecordofbreakthroughsfromacademicresearchersincomputerarchitecturethat
haveledtonewmultibilliondollarindustries.Onereasonissimplythatmanyofthe
leadingthinkersincomputerarchitectureareinacademia,asthenumberofawards,books,
andpapersdocument.Anotherreasonisthatacademicresearchersarenotboundthe
businessrequirementsofcompatibilitywithlegacyhardwareandsoftware.Athirdreason
isthatwheninformationtechnologyischangingrapidly,decadesofexperiencemaynotbe
ahugeasset,andbrightyounggraduatestudentswhodontknowwhatcantbedoneareas
likelytomakeanimportantcontributionasthoseconsiderablymoresenior.

Thus,inareaswherethereistremendousconsensusontheguidelinesonwhattodo,
computerarchitectsatIntelandIBMusuallyleadtheway.Whenthedirectionsareless
clear,academicsareoftenthepathbreakerseventhoughtheyhavefewerresources.

Today,wehavehitthewallastothepracticallimittotheamountofpowerthata
microprocessorchipcandissipate;inthepasteachgenerationofchipusedmorepower
whilegettingmoreperformance.Weneedtoinventanewwaytogetmoreperformance
withoutmorepower.Moreover,themostinterestingcomputersofthefutureareatthe
extremesinscale:

Thedatacenteristhecomputer.Amazon,Google,Microsoft,andothersareracingto
constructbuildingswith50,000computerstorunsoftwareasaservice(SaaS).

Thecellphoneisthecomputer.Millionsofcellphonesareshippedeachdayandthey
areincreasinginfunctionality.

Thepowerwallandtheextremesincomputersizemeanthattheoldguidelinesareout
thewindow,so,ifhistoryisanyguide,wereenteringaneraofincreasingimportancefor
academiccomputerarchitecture.

Notethatinsuchanuncertaineratheremanychancesfornewmultibilliondollar
industries,andthesenewindustriesarelikelytoflourishclosetowheretheresearchersdo

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theirwork.WehaveseenthecenteroftheITuniverseshiftgeographicallybeforeduring
erasofchange:

NewYorkinthemainframeeraofthe1950sand1960s;
Bostonintheminicomputereraofthe1970sandearly1980s;
SiliconValleyinPCandWeberaofthelate1980stotoday.

Giventhechallengesmentionedabove,othercountriesareinvestingtremendouslyinITin
generalandincomputerarchitecturespecifically,sincetheyseetheopportunityinthisera
ofchangetoshiftthecenteroftheITuniverseandthejobsthatcomewithit.Especially
giventhecuttoacademicITresearchingeneralandtocomputerarchitecturespecifically
intheUS,itsnothardtoimaginetheITcentermovingfurtherwestinthenextdecadeto
BeijingorMumbai.

Oneareaoftremendousopportunityincomputerarchitectureisthemanycorechallenge.
Thegoalistoinventcomputersthatmakeiteasytowriteprogramsthatareefficient,
portable,correct,andscaleasthenumberofcorespermicroprocessorincreasesaseasy
asithasbeentowriteprogramsfortraditionalcomputers.Ifthisinventionallows
softwaretousemanysimplepowerefficientcoresinsteadofasinglepowerhungrycore,
thiswillresetthefoundationfortheITindustryforatleastthenext30years.

Asecondopportunityisinventinganewcomputerarchitecturethatimprovescomputer
securityandprivacy,problemsthatplaguetheITfield.Architectscouldremovemanyof
thevulnerabilitiesoftodayscomputersiftheywerenotboundbythelegacyrequirements
ofcompatibilitywithtodayscomputers.Theycouldalsoprovidenewfeaturestomakeit
easiertobuildfast,secure,lowoverheadvirtualmachines,makingiteasierandsaferfor
softwaretomigratebetweenthedatacenterandthecellphone.

Athirdopportunityisinventcomputersthatwillremovetheperformancebottlenecks
fromnew,highlyproductiveprogrammingenvironmentssuchRubyorPython.For
example,theRubyonRailsenvironmentallowsprogrammerstoinventamazingnew
computerapplicationsinjust1000to2000linesofcodefactorsof10to100lessthan
conventionalapproaches.Exampleapplicationareasincludepersonalhealthcare,
personalmemoryassistants,andpersonaldigitaleducators.Alas,RubyonRails
performanceisfactorsof3to10worsethanconventionalsystems.Ifwecaninvent
computersthatallownewprogrammingsystemslikeRubyorPythontoscaleupto
hundredsofcoreswhilepreservingtheiramazingprogrammingproductivity,wecould
unleashanewroundofexcitingapplicationsthatwillleadtonewmultibilliondollar
industries,justaswevedonesomanytimesinthepast.

IntelandMicrosoftrecentlyfundedtwomajoracademiccenterstotacklethesecritical
challengesatUCBerkeleyandtheUniversityofIllinois.Manyotherhighlycredible
proposalswerereceived,fromstrongteamspursuingdiverseapproaches.Anational
initiativewouldfundfivemorecentersofexcellenceincomputersystemsandarchitecture,
positioningtheUnitedStatestomaintainitspreeminenceintheITfield.