Assessing the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and ood events using

an integrated hydrological modeling system for Qinhuai River basin, China

Jinkang Du
a
, Li Qian
a
, Hanyi Rui
a
, Tianhui Zuo
b
, Dapeng Zheng
a
, Youpeng Xu
a
, C.-Y. Xu
c,
a
School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
b
Earthquake Administration of Guangxi Antonomous Region, Nanning 530022, China
c
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 22 July 2011
Received in revised form 7 June 2012
Accepted 30 June 2012
Available online 20 July 2012
This manuscript was handled by
Konstantine P. Georgakakos, Editor-in-Chief,
with the assistance of Timothy David
Fletcher, Associate Editor
Keywords:
CA-Markov model
HEC-HMS model
Urbanization
Annual runoff
Peak ow
Flood volume
s u m m a r y
This study developed and used an integrated modeling system, coupling a distributed hydrologic and a
dynamic land-use change model, to examine effects of urbanization on annual runoff and ood events
of the Qinhuai River watershed in Jiangsu Province, China. The Hydrologic Engineering Centers
Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was used to calculate runoff generation and the integrated
Markov Chain and Cellular Automata model (CA-Markov model) was used to develop future land use
maps. The model was calibrated and validated using observed daily streamow data collected at the
two outlets of watershed. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988, 1994, 2006, Enhanced The-
matic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images from 2001, 2003 and a ChinaBrazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS)
image from 2009 were used to obtain historical land use maps. These imageries revealed that the
watershed experienced conversion of approximately 17% non-urban area to urban area between 1988
and 2009. The urbanization scenarios for various years were developed by overlaying impervious surfaces
of different land use maps to 1988 (as a reference year) map sequentially. The simulation results of HEC-
HMS model for the various urbanization scenarios indicate that annual runoff, daily peak ow, and ood
volume have increased to different degrees due to urban expansion during the study period (19882009),
and will continue to increase as urban areas increase in the future. When impervious ratios change from
3% (1988) to 31% (2018), the mean annual runoff would increase slightly and the annual runoff in the dry
year would increase more than that in the wet year. The daily peak discharge of eight selected oods
would increase from 2.3% to 13.9%. The change trend of ood volumes is similar with that of peak dis-
charge, but with larger percentage changes than that of daily peak ows in all scenarios. Sensitivity anal-
ysis revealed that the potential changes in peak discharge and ood volume with increasing impervious
surface showed a linear relationship, and the changes of small oods were larger than those of large
oods with the same impervious increase, indicating that the small oods were more sensitive than large
oods to urbanization. These results suggest that integrating distributed land use change model and dis-
tributed hydrological model can be a good approach to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of urbanization,
which are essential for watershed management, water resources planning, and ood management for
sustainable development.
2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The world population has grown very rapidly over the last
150 years and continues to do so, resulting in impacts on hydro-
logic resources at both a local and global scale. One of the recent
thrusts in hydrologic modeling is the assessment of the effects of
land use and land cover changes on water resources and oods
(Yang et al., 2012), which are essential for planning and operation
of civil water resource projects, and for early ood warning. The
inuence of urbanization as one of the important land use and land
cover changes on runoff and oods within watersheds is one of the
main research topics in the past decades.
It is widely recognized that urbanization changes hydrological
processes within watersheds by altering surface inltration char-
acteristics. The expected results of urbanization include reducing
inltration, baseow, lag times, increasing storm ow volumes,
peak discharge, frequency of oods, and surface runoff (Hollis,
1975; Arnold and Gibbons, 1996; Smith et al., 2005; Dougherty
et al., 2006; Ogden et al., 2011). Numerous researchers have used
many methods to simulate, assess, and predict the effects of urban-
ization on hydrological response of the watersheds. For example,
Tung and Mays (1981) developed a non-linear hydrological sys-
tem-state variable model to simulate urban rainfallrunoff, and
0022-1694/$ - see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.057

Corresponding author. Tel.: +47 22 855825; fax: +47 22 854215.

E-mail address: chongyu.xu@geo.uio.no (C.-Y. Xu).
Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139
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j our nal homepage: www. el sevi er. com/ l ocat e/ j hydrol
examined the variation of each parameter for different levels of
urbanization. Bhaskar (1988) adopted Clarks instantaneous unit
hydrograph concept to determine the parameters that inuence
the effect of urbanization on the watershed. Ferguson and Suckling
(1990) applied polynomial regressive equations of impervious
surfaces to analyze the relationship of runoff to rainfall for total an-
nual ows, low ows and peak ows. Kang et al. (1998) illustrated
the runoff characteristics of urbanization by utilizing the concept
of linear cascading reservoirs. Valeo and Moin (2000) used a model
called TOPURBAN, a revision of TOPMODEL, to observe the interac-
tion between parameters on urbanized watersheds. Cheng and
Wang (2002) developed a method to dene the degree of change
in runoff hydrographs for the urbanizing Wu-Tu watershed in
Taiwan. Choi et al. (2003) applied the Cell Based Long Term Hydro-
logical Model (CELTHYM) to evaluate long term hydrologic impacts
caused by land use changes associated with urbanization for a wa-
tershed in central Indiana. Huang et al. (2008) used regression
analysis to establish the relationship between hydrograph param-
eters and peak discharge and their corresponding imperviousness
for the urbanizing Wu-Tu watershed in Taiwan. Franczyk and
Chang (2009) used an ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool
(AVSWAT) hydrological model to assess the effects of climate
change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in
the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA. Lin et al. (2009) as-
sessed the impact of land-use patterns on runoff in watershed
and sub-watershed scales for an urbanized watershed in Taiwan
by combined use of a spatial pattern optimization model (OLPSIM),
the Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects model (CLUE-s) and the
Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydrologic Modeling System
(HEC-HMS). Im et al. (2009) applied the MIKE SHE model to quan-
titatively assess the impact of land use changes (predominantly
urbanization) on hydrology of the Gyeongancheon watershed in
Korea. Li and Wang (2009) used a Long-Term Hydrologic Impact
Assessment (L-THIA) model to evaluate the effect of land use and
land cover change on surface runoff in the Dardenne Creek wa-
tershed of St. Louis, Missouri. Chu et al. (2010) used the Conversion
of Land-use and its Effects (CLUE-s) model and Distributed Hydrol-
ogy-Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to examine hydrologic effects
of various land-use change scenarios in the Wu-Tu watershed in
northern Taiwan.
Distributed models rely on a physically based description of the
runoff generation and the effects of different land covers play an
important role in exploring hydrologic effects of land-use changes
in the catchment. The above-mentioned Mike SHE, SWAT,
HEC-HMS, DHSVM, L-THIA and CELTHYM, for example, have been
extensively used to assess the effects of land use changes (predom-
inantly urbanization) on hydrologic processes. However, most dis-
tributed models are commonly used in small watersheds with a
single-outlet, and in our study area, the Qinhuai River basin has
two outlets (bifurcationa split in the ow in a channel), a suitable
distributed model that can deal with such basins needs to be se-
lected and evaluated. The HEC-HMS is one such model and there-
fore was selected together with a land-use change model to
explore the hydrological effect of urbanization in the Qinhuai River
basin.
Many methods have been developed to simulate land use
change, such as empiricalstatistical models, stochastic models,
conceptual models, and dynamic (process-based) models (Lambin
et al., 2000). Among those, Markov Chain and Cellular Automata
models are most often used. Markov chain models are commonly
used to quantify transition probabilities of multiple land cover cat-
egories from discrete time steps; however, there is no spatial com-
ponent in the modeling outcome. Cellular Automata (CA), on the
other hand, can effectively model proximity to predict spatially ex-
plicit changes over a certain period of time (Balzter et al., 1998;
Clark-Labs, 2003). The CA-Markov model is the combination of
both Markov and CA models, possessing the temporal character
of Markov chain models and the spatial character of CA models.
The foundation of a CA-Markov model is an initial distribution
and a transition matrix, which assumes that the drivers that pro-
duce the detectable patterns of land cover categories will continue
to act in the future as they had been in the past (Briassoulis, 2000).
In this study, the CA-Markov model was used to develop future
land use change scenarios, and based on which the future urbani-
zation scenarios can be constructed.
In this paper, the CA-Markov model and HEC-HMS model system
were used as an integrated system to quantify the annual runoff
and ood response to urbanization. The main objective of this study
was to develop and test the integrated modeling systemfor analyz-
ing the effects of sub-urban development on runoff and ood events
under urbanization scenarios taken from multi-temporal satellite
imageries for the Qinhuai River basin in China, which is essential
for maintaining an adequate water supply, protecting water quality
and management of ood disasters. The study provides a useful
framework for similar studies in other regions of the world. The pri-
mary goal was achieved through the following steps: (1) to develop
an integrated modeling system that couples a distributed hydro-
logic model and a dynamic land use change model for examining
the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and ood events; (2)
to propose a method which can be used to develop urbanization
scenarios for determining hydrologic response of watersheds to
urbanization; (3) to test the capabilities of HEC-HMS modeling sys-
temfor simulating daily streamowin a large basin (in this case, an
area of about 2600 km
2
); and (4) to explore whether the effects of
suburban development on runoff characteristics of the study area
are the same with those widely acknowledged.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area and data
Qinhuai River basin is located between 11839
0
and 11919
0
E
longitude and 3134
0
to 3210
0
N latitude. It has an area of 2631
square kilometers, and the elevation ranges from 0 to 417 m,
encompassing Nanjing and Jurong cities of Jiangsu Province, China.
The basin has experienced dramatic urbanization over the past
decades, resulting in extensive land use changes. Therefore, it is
essential and valuable to assess the hydrologic impacts of land
use changes in the region for the current situation and future
scenarios.
The studied basin lies in the humid climatic region. The mean
annual precipitation is approximately 1047 mm, and the rainy sea-
son extends from April to September, with intense precipitation in
summer (June to August). The mean annual temperature is about
15.4 C.
The land use types are paddy eld, woodland, impervious sur-
face, water, and dry land. Among those, paddy eld and dry land
are the main land use types (for details see Section 3.1). The main
soil types are yellowbrown soil, purple soil, limestone soil, paddy
soil, and gray uvo-aquic soil.
Seven raingage stations and two stream ow gauging stations at
the outlets of the basin were used for the study. The watershed
location, elevation, distribution of rainfall and ow gauging sta-
tions, and streams are seen in Fig. 1.
The data used in this study were: (a) multi-temporal and multi-
spectral satellite images, representing land use changes in the ba-
sin over time; (b) daily rainfall data of the seven raingage stations
for the 21-year period (19862006) from the China Meteorological
Data Sharing Service System; (c) daily discharge data of Inner Qin-
huai station and Wudingmen station covering the period from Jan-
uary 1986 to December 2006; (d) soil map of the study area on
128 J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139
1:75,000 scale; and (e) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the
Qinhuai River basin.
2.2. Generation of historical land use scenarios
As the basis for hydrologic impact evaluation of the land use
changes, digital land use maps were generated from a multi-tem-
poral and multi-spectral dataset. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)
images from 1988, 1994, 2006, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus
(ETM+) images from 2001, 2003 (all with 30 m resolution), and
20 m resolution ChinaBrazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) im-
age from 2009 were used in this study. While the sensors offer dif-
ferent spatial and spectral resolutions, such multispectral datasets
are often unavoidable in studies spanning over several decades and
have been successfully applied in other regions (Zoran and Ander-
son, 2006).
Image pre-processing was carried out in ERDAS Imagine 9.3.
The satellite images were generated by applying coefcients for
radiometric calibration, geometric rectication and projected to
the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) ground coordinates with
a spatial resampling of 30 m. Geometric rectication was carried
out on Landsat images from 1988, 1994, 2003, 2006 and CBERS im-
age from 2009 using the ETM+ from 2001 as a base-map, and near-
est neighbor resampling algorithm, with root mean square (RMS)
error of less than 0.5 pixels via image-to-image registration. Radio-
metric calibration and atmospheric correction were carried out to
correct for sensor drift, differences due to variation in the solar an-
gle, and atmospheric effects (Green et al., 2005).
The supervised classication method with maximum likelihood
clustering and DEM data were employed for image classication as
a hybrid method to generate land use maps and post-classication
analysis was applied to create the trend map of land use changes.
Land use categories were paddy eld, dry land, woodland, impervi-
ous surface and water. Pure pixels, rather than mixed pixels, were
selected as training samples. Mixed classes such as paddy eld and
woodland were separated with the aid of DEM data. Ground tru-
thing was performed to assist in the imagery classication and to
validate the nal results. Each image was classied following the
same method.
Overall accuracy and Kappa value were selected as evaluation
criteria for the classication. An error matrix was generated based
on test samples for each land use map. The columns of error ma-
trix represent the reference data by ground truthing, while the
rows indicate the classied land use category. The overall accu-
racy is computed by dividing the total correct pixels (i.e., the
sum of the major diagonal) by the total number of pixels in the
error matrix (Russell, 1991). Kappa analysis is a discrete multivar-
iate technique used in accuracy assessment, Kappa value (K
ap
) is
computed as
K
ap

N
P
r
i1
x
ii

P
r
i1
x
i
x
i
N
2

P
r
i1
x
i
x
i
1
where r is the number of rows in the matrix, x
ii
is the observation in
row i and column i, x
i+
and x
+i
are the marginal totals of row i and
column i, respectively, and N is the total number of observations
(Bishop et al., 1975).
The overall accuracy ranges from 0 to 1, and kappa value is be-
tween 1 and 1. If the test samples are in perfect agreement (all
the same between classication results and predicted results), val-
ues for the overall accuracy and K
ap
equal to 1.
In this study, the overall classication accuracy of each image
was over 89% with kappa values over 0.79, meeting the accuracy
requirements. The selected land use maps were shown in Fig. 2.
2.3. Development of future land use scenarios
The CA-Markov model was used to develop future land use
change scenarios. A Markov chain is a stochastic process that con-
sists of a nite number of states of a system in discrete time steps
and some known transition probabilities P
ij
(the probability of
that particular system moving from time step i to time step j).
The value of the stochastic process at time t, S
t
, depends only
on its value at time t 1, S
t1
, and not on the sequence of values
S
t2
, S
t3
, . . ., S
0
. Land use change can be regarded as a stochastic
process and different categories are the states of a chain. The
Markov chain equation was constructed using the land use distri-
butions at the time step i (S
i
), and at the time step j (S
j
) of a dis-
crete time period as well as transition probabilities P
ij
representing the probabilities of each land use category changing
to every other category (or remaining the same) during that per-
iod. P
ij
equation is as follows:
Fig. 1. Map of Qinhuai River basin used in this study.
J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139 129
P
ij

P
11
P
12
P
1n
P
21
P
22
P
2n
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
P
n1
P
n2
P
nn
2
6
6
6
6
4
3
7
7
7
7
5
0 6 P
ij
< 1 and
X
N
i1;j1
P
ij
1 i; j 1; 2 n
2
Future land use can be modeled on the basis of the preceding
state and a matrix of actual transition probabilities between the
states. However, there is no spatial component in the modeling
outcome. Cellular automata (CA), on the other hand, can effectively
model proximity, i.e., areas will have a higher tendency to change
to the land use category of the neighboring cells (Balzter et al.,
1998). CA works as a dynamic and spatially explicit modeling ap-
proach, in which the state of each cell at time t + 1 is determined
by the state of its neighboring cells at time t according to the
pre-dened transition rules. Five components were included: (a)
a space composed of discrete cells, (b) a nite set of possible states
associated to every cell, (c) a neighborhood of adjacent cells whose
state inuences the central cell, (d) uniform transition rules
through time and space, and (e) a discrete time step to which the
system is updated (Wolfram, 1984). The hybrid CA-Markov model
(Cellular Automata-Markov), integrating the merits of the Markov
chain and CA models, can reconstruct the spatial patterns of future
land use based on the quantity prediction of Markov, and therefore,
has been shown to improve land use modeling (Pinki and Jane,
2010; Li et al., 2010).
In this study, CA-Markov model was performed in the software
IDRISI (Clark-Labs, 2003). Land use of 2009 has been built with the
trend of land use change during 20032006. The detailed proce-
dure for developing land use scenarios is presented below.
First, a transition probability matrix, a transition areas matrix,
and a collection of conditional probability images were developed
using land use maps (30 m 30 m spatial resolution) of 2003 and
2006 based on Markov module of the software. The transition
probability matrix is a text le that records the probability of each
land use category changing to every other category. The transition
areas matrix is a text le that records the number of pixels that are
expected to change from each land use type to other land use type
over the specied number of time units. The conditional probabil-
ity images report the probability of each land cover type to be
found at each pixel after the specied number of time units.
Second, transition suitability image collection was generated,
where a number of maps that show the suitability for each land
use category with values are stretched to a range of 0255. The
probability maps created by the Markov module were used as
the suitability map.
Third, a 5 5 contiguity lter was used to generate a spatial ex-
plicit contiguity-weighting factor to change the state of cells based
on its neighbors. The lter emphasized that the spatial scale of
150 m 150 m around a cell would have more signicant impacts
on land use change of the cell.
Fourth, 3-year loops times were used for the CA model to pre-
dict land use. Then the land use map of 2009 was developed using
the land use map of 2006 as the baseline.
The predicted land use map of 2009 (Fig. 2e) was compared
with the classication of CBERS image from 2009 (Fig. 2d) to test
the model accuracy according to the area of each land use category.
The classication of the CBERS image was considered as the actual
land use distribution; an error matrix was generated based on 400
test samples.
In the same way, with the transition matrix generated between
2003 and 2006, a 6-year loop time and a 12-year loop time were
used to predict the land use map of 2012 and 2018 using the land
use map of 2006 as the baseline, respectively.
Fig. 2. The land use maps of the basin.
130 J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139
2.4. Building of urbanization scenarios
In order to analyze hydrological effects of urbanization and ex-
clude complicated effects caused by all other land use changes, the
urbanization scenarios are built following three steps: rst, the
land use map of 1988 was chosen as a reference; second, impervi-
ous surfaces (urban areas) were extracted from land use maps of
1994, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018; and third, impervi-
ous surfaces (urban areas) extracted in step two were overlaid to
the land use map of 1988 to produce urbanization scenarios for
1994, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018 respectively. In such
a way, the urbanization scenarios only differ in the size of urban
areas while the rest of the catchment remain the same land use
type as in 1988. That is to say, there could only be transitions of
other land use types to impervious surfaces, and no inter ex-
changes among other land use types within the urbanization sce-
nario series, therefore the hydrologic effect of urbanization could
then be assessed avoiding other effects caused by all land use
changes.
2.5. Development of hydrological soil map
Soil data of the study area were generated from existing Soil
Survey maps at a scale of 1:75,000. Soil maps were rectied and
mosaicked, so that the study area was extracted by sub-setting it
from the full map. Boundaries of different soil textures were digi-
tized and various polygons were assigned to represent different
soil categories such as yellowbrown soil, purple soil, limestone
soil, paddy soil, and gray uvo-aquic soil. According to the rules
of hydrologic soil group classications developed by the US Natural
Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), only hydrologic soil groups
B (paddy soil, purple soil) and C (yellowbrown soil, limestone soil
and gray uvo-aquic soil) are presented in the basin (Fig. 3), indi-
cating a moderate inltration rate and a slow inltration rate
respectively when thoroughly wetted.
2.6. Description of HEC-HMS
In this study, we used the hydrological model, HEC-HMS, to cal-
culate the runoff from the resulting landscapes. HEC-HMS is hydro-
logic modeling software developed by the US Army Corps of
Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centre (HEC). HEC-HMS uses
separate sub-models to represent each component of the runoff
process, including models that compute rainfall losses, runoff gen-
eration, base ow, and channel routing. Each model run combines
the Basin Model, the Precipitation Model, and the Control Model.
The Basin Model contains the basin and routing parameters of
the model, as well as connectivity data for the basin. The Precipita-
tion Model contains the rainfall data for the model. The Control
Model contains all the timing information for the model. The user
may specify different data sets for each model and then the hydro-
logic simulation is completed by using of data set for the Basin
Model, the Precipitation Model, and the Control Model. The details
of model structures and various processes involved are given in the
Technical Reference Manual (USACE-HEC, 2000) and the Users
Manual (USACE-HEC, 2008) of HEC-HMS. A brief description of
models used in this study is provided here for completeness only.
HEC-HMS categorizes all land types and water in a watershed as
either directly connected impervious surface or pervious surface.
Precipitation on directly connected impervious surface runs off
with no volume losses. Precipitation on the pervious surfaces is
subject to losses (Jha and Mahana, 2010). The SCS-CN loss model
was used in the present study, which estimates precipitation ex-
cess as a function of cumulative precipitation, soil cover, land
use, and antecedent moisture using the following equation (Singh,
1994):
P
e

P I
a

2
P I
a
S
3
where P
e
is accumulated precipitation excess at time t, P is accumu-
lated rainfall depth at time t, I
a
is the initial abstraction (initial loss),
and S is potential maximum retention, a measure of the ability of a
watershed to abstract and retain storm precipitation.
The SCS developed an empirical relationship between I
a
and S as
I
a
= 0.2S. Therefore, the cumulative excess at time t is given as:
P
e

P 0:2S
2
P 0:8S
4
The maximum retention (S) is determined using the following equa-
tion (SI system):
S
25; 400 254CN
CN
5
where CN is the SCS curve number. It is an index that represents the
combination of hydrologic soil group, land use classes, and anteced-
ent moisture conditions.
The Clark unit hydrograph (Clark UH) model has been applied
for estimating direct runoff. Clarks model derives a watershed
UH by explicitly representing two critical processes in the transfor-
mation of excess precipitation to runoff: Translation of the excess
from its origin throughout the drainage system to the watershed
outlet and attenuation of the magnitude of the discharge as the ex-
cess is stored throughout the watershed. Application of the Clark
model requires properties of the time-area histogram and a storage
coefcient. The time-area relationship can be represented by a
smooth function requiring only one parameter, the time of concen-
tration. The storage coefcient is an index of the temporary storage
Table 1
Curve number for hydrologic soil groups B and C.
Land use B C
Paddy eld 76 84
Woodland 64 73
Impervious surface 98 98
Water 95 95
Dry land 76 82
Fig. 3. Hydrologic soil map of the basin.
J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139 131
of precipitation excess in the watershed as it drains to the outlet
point. The two parameters can be estimated via calibration if
gauged precipitation and streamow data are available or by equa-
tions presented in Bedient and Huber (1992).
In HEC-HMS, the baseow model is applied both at the start of
simulation of a storm event, and later in the event as the delayed
subsurface ow reaches the watershed channels. The recession
model adopted in present study explains the drainage from natural
storage in a watershed. It denes the relationship of the baseow
Q
t
at any time t to an initial value Q
0
as:
Q
t
Q
0
K
t
6
where K is an exponential decay constant. A threshold ow, after
the peak of the direct runoff, should be specied either as a ow
rate or as a ratio to the computed peak ow when applying reces-
sion model (Jha and Mahana, 2010).
The Muskingum method was adopted to compute outow from
each reach. The method uses the following equation:
Q
2
c
1
c
2
I
1
1 c
1
Q
1
c
2
I
2
c
1

2 Dt
2 K 1 X Dt
c
2

Dt 2 K X
2 K 1 X Dt
7
where I
1
, I
2
are the inows to the routing reach at the beginning and
end of computation interval respectively, Q
1
and Q
2
are the outows
from the routing reach at the beginning and end of computation
interval respectively, K is the travel time through the reach, X is
the Muskingum weighting factor (0 6 X 6 0.5), and Dt is the length
of computation interval.
2.7. Construction of HEC-HMS project
The project containing the Basin Model, the Precipitation Model
and the Control Model was created. The Basin Model was built
based on hydrologic elements such as sub-basin, reach, diversion,
junction, reservoir, source and sink, and hydrologic models corre-
sponding to each element. The basin and sub-basin boundaries as
Fig. 4. Sketch map of hydrologic elements in Basin Model.
132 J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139
well as stream networks needed by the Basin Model were delin-
eated using terrain processing module of ArcHydro Tools software
based on DEM data obtained from existing 1:50,000 scale contour
map. The initial values of the model parameters were determined
by using the default values given by HEC-HMS. The land use and
soil maps of the basin were used to assign CN (Curve Number) val-
ues to each grid (30 m 30 m resolution) with the help of HEC-
GeoHMS Project View, referring to the standard table provided
by SCS-USA (McCuen, 1998). Weighted CN values were calculated
for each sub-basin with averaging method in the spatial analyst
module of ArcGIS. Curve Numbers ranged from approximately
6498 for all sub-basins in this study area (Table 1). Fig. 4 shows
the hydrologic elements in the Basin Model.
The Precipitation Model was set up by putting in daily rainfall
data for each sub-basin, which were calculated by using nearest
neighbor method based on the point rainfall values observed at
the seven raingage stations. The Control Model containing all the
timing information for the model was built by determining time
steps, start and stop date, and times of the simulation.
2.8. Calibration and validation of HEC-HMS
In this study, the HEC-HMS model was calibrated and evaluated
using a split sample procedure against streamow data collected at
the outlets of the watershed. The objective of the model calibration
was to match simulated daily runoff with the observed data with
different meteorological conditions and land cover conditions.
In this study, two evaluation criteria, correlation coefcient (R)
and model efciency (E) (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970) were used to as-
sess model performance. To calibrate and verify the HEC-HMS
model, 21-year (19862006) streamow and precipitation data
were used for the study watershed. The observed runoff dataset
was divided into a calibration period (19861998) and a verica-
tion period (19992006) based on the land use data years 1988,
1994, 2001, and 2006. For model calibration, land use data for
1988 and rainfall data for 19861992 were used for 19861992
simulation, and land use data for 1994 and rainfall data for
19931998 were used for 19931998 simulation.
Initial abstraction, time of concentration, storage coefcient,
recession constant, baseow threshold ratio to peak, Muskingum
weighting factor and travel time were considered as HEC-HMS cal-
ibration parameters. A series of model parameters sets was esti-
mated using automated optimization tool provided by HEC-HMS
by selecting several objective functions, and model efciency (E)
for whole calibration period was computed for each set of param-
eters to examine the calibration results. The calibrated model
parameters were obtained using peak-weighted root mean square
error as the objective function. Validation was then performed;
parameters used during calibration were not changed during mod-
el validation. HEC-HMS was validated for the 19992003 simula-
tion using land use data of 2001 and rainfall data of 19992003,
and for 20042006 simulation using land use data of 2006 and
rainfall data of 20042006.
In order to assess the urbanization effects on ood ow, four-
teen ood events with daily peak discharge greater than 500 m
3
/
s and two other smaller ood events during 19862006 were se-
lected for calibration and validation. Four ood events with differ-
ent peak discharges were selected for model calibration. The
calibration parameters for ood events simulation were same as
those for long-term simulation. The optimized parameter sets for
each calibrated ood events were obtained by selecting peak-
weighted root mean square error as the objective function and
using the Nelder and Mead simplex search algorithm provided by
HEC-HMS.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Historical land use change
The land use changes from 1988 to 2009 are presented in Table
2. During 19882009, paddy eld is the main land use type cover-
ing over 40% of the total areas, and the second main land use cat-
egory is dry land, which occupied over 22%. Subsequently, the
woodland occupied over 15%, with water occupying the remainder.
The urban area development has been recognized for over
21 years, and a high rate of urban expansion emerged after 2003
at the expense of the amount of other land use categories, espe-
cially the paddy eld. From the year 1988 to 2003, the impervious
surface area increased from 3% to 8%; however, it increased to 20%
in 2009. On the other hand, the paddy eld decreased substantially
from 48% in 1988 to 40% in 2009. Water area changed slightly,
while woodland and dry land decreased during the past 20 years.
It should be noted that due to the policy of tree-planting, woodland
represented an increasing trend during 19942003.
3.2. Projected future land use scenarios
Land use scenarios of 2012 and 2018 were predicted with the
assumption that the drivers of pre-2006 are still acting on the land
use, and no other policy arrests this trend. It must be emphasized
that the Markov values do not represent realistic future states for
the basin. Rather, they are direct equivalents of land use changes
that occurred in a given time (Michael and John, 1994). The pre-
dicted land use maps suggest continuing rapid increases of imper-
vious surface from 23% to 31% with very high losses of paddy eld
during 20122018 (Table 3). Impervious surface area will become
the second main land use category and other categories represent
trends of decline, conrming that urbanization is one of the most
important driving forces resulting in the general trends in land
use change in future.
Table 2
Land use structures from 1988 to 2009(%).
Year Impervious surface Paddy eld Water Woodland Dry land
1988 3 48 4 19 26
1994 5 47 4 17 27
2001 7 45 4 18 26
2003 8 44 4 18 26
2006 12 42 4 17 25
2009 20 40 3 15 22
Table 3
Future land use scenarios predicted by the CA-Markov model (%).
Year Impervious surface Paddy eld Water Woodland Dry land
2012 23 39 3 14 21
2018 31 34 3 13 19
Table 4
The land use structures of each urbanization scenarios (%).
Year Impervious ratio Paddy eld Water Woodland Dry land
1988 3 48 4 19 26
1994 6 46 4 19 25
2001 8 45 4 18 25
2003 9 45 4 18 25
2006 14 42 4 16 24
2009 20 39 4 15 22
2012 24 38 4 14 21
2018 31 33 3 13 19
J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139 133
3.3. Urbanization scenarios
The results of the urbanization scenarios are listed in Table 4. It
can be seen that there are slight increases in impervious ratio for
each urbanization scenario compared to the corresponding land
use scenario and that the other land use categories correspond-
ingly decline.
3.4. Calibration and validation of HEC-HMS for long term simulation
The R and E of the calibration period for daily runoff were 0.79
and 0.78, respectively; the simulated mean annual runoff is
389 mm with a relative error of 13.3%. The R and E of the valida-
tion period (19982006) for daily runoff were 0.79 and 0.77,
respectively; the simulated mean annual runoff is 460 mm with
a relative error of 10.4%. The calibrated initial abstraction of all
sub-basins is 15 mm, and the other calibrated parameters of sub-
basins and sub-reaches are shown in Tables 5 and 6. It can be seen
fromthese tables that the values of the same parameter for sub-ba-
sins and reaches change considerably, which is the result of auto-
matic optimization. Comparison of observed and simulated
discharges of calibration and validation periods is shown in Figs.
5 and 6.
These results show that the model performance was satisfac-
tory during both calibration and validation periods, implying that
the selected models from HEC-HMS were applicable to the Qinhuai
River catchment for long term simulations.
3.5. Calibration and validation of HEC-HMS for ood events simulation
The calibrated parameter values of the sub-basins for ood
event simulation were the same as for long term simulation.
Table 5
Calibrated subbasin parameters of long term simulation.
Subbasin Clark unit hydrograph parameters Baseow parameters
Time of concentration (h) Storage coefcient (h) Recession constant Threshold ratio to peak
Sub1 1.03 1.03 0.90 1.00
Sub2 1.03 1.03 0.95 0.88
Sub3 1.00 1.00 0.10 0.01
Sub4 1.03 1.03 0.90 0.01
Sub5 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.01
Sub6 1.00 1.00 0.10 0.01
Sub7 1.03 1.03 0.90 0.01
Sub8 1.00 1.00 0.10 0.01
Sub9 1.00 1.00 0.10 0.01
Sub10 1.03 1.03 0.90 0.60
Sub11 1.03 1.03 0.90 0.88
Sub12 1.03 1.03 0.10 0.01
Sub13 0.50 0.10 0.95 0.01
Sub14 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.01
Sub15 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.01
Sub16 0.10 1.03 0.10 0.01
Sub17 1.03 1.03 0.95 0.99
Sub18 1.03 1.03 0.10 0.01
Table 6
Calibrated subreach parameters.
Reach Long term simulation Medium ood simulation Large ood simulation
Muskingum travel
time (h)
Muskingum weighting
factor
Muskingum travel
time (h)
Muskingum weighting
factor
Muskingum travel
time (h)
Muskingum weighting
factor
R1 100.0 0.30 100.5 0.29 102.0 0.50
R2 3.0 0.30 2.9 0.45 4.4 0.29
R3 150.0 0.30 100.0 0.20 101.5 0.20
R4 150.0 0.30 100.0 0.29 101.3 0.29
R5 5.0 0.10 4.9 0.07 4.9 0.03
R6 50.0 0.10 33.3 0.07 33.8 0.06
R7 0.1 0.40 0.1 0.50 0.1 0.50
R8 1.0 0.10 1.0 0.15 1.0 0.05
R9 5.0 0.10 4.9 0.15 4.9 0.05
R10 6.5 0.01 6.4 0.02 11.0 0.01
R11 20.0 0.20 13.3 0.13 30.1 0.13
R12 1.0 0.01 1.0 0.02 1.4 0.02
R13 10.0 0.01 9.8 0.02 22.2 0.01
R14 25.0 0.10 16.7 0.15 10.9 0.07
R15 10.0 0.30 9.8 0.45 9.8 0.29
R16 90.0 0.15 60.0 0.10 60.8 0.10
R17 1.0 0.10 1.0 0.15 1.0 0.07
R18 150.0 0.20 150.0 0.20 44.5 0.13
R19 1.0 0.30 1.0 0.45 1.3 0.29
R20 30.0 0.01 20.0 0.01 20.1 0.01
R21 0.1 0.30 0.1 0.29 0.1 0.28
R22 5.0 0.30 4.9 0.20 4.7 0.06
R23 40.0 0.30 39.2 0.45 39.5 0.19
Average 37.2 0.19 29.6 0.21 26.6 0.16
134 J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139
However, the calibrated values of sub-reach parameters for ood
event were different to those of the long-term simulation; and
parameter values for medium ood events were also different to
those for large ood events (Table 6). It is seen that the average val-
ues of Muskingum travel time and weighting factor of each sub-
reach for medium ood events are greater than those for large
ood events, which is reasonable because the travel time of large
ood events will be shorter and the weighting factor smaller. The
calibration and validation results for ood events are listed in Table
7. The comparison of observed and simulated discharges of each
ood event is shown in Fig. 7. It is seen that the simulated ood
hydrographs demonstrate a good agreement with the observed
hydrographs for most ood events, except ood number 199806.
The relative error of simulated peak ow and ood volume was
below 20% for most events. The mean efciency was 0.81, and in
10 of the 16 ood hydrographs the efciency was higher than
0.8; the mean correlation coefcient was 0.89, and was greater
than 0.8 in 15 of the 16 ood hydrographs. These results indicate
that the selected models from HEC-HMS were suitable for ood
event simulation in the catchment.
3.6. Impact of urbanization on mean annual runoff for 19862006
Long-term simulation was conducted to estimate the impact of
urbanization on runoff under the same meteorological conditions
as 19862006. HEC-HMS was run for 21 years without changing
the calibration parameters, for urbanization scenarios based on
land use data of 1988, 1994, 2001, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018.
Table 8 summarizes the changes in mean annual runoff depth
under different urbanization scenarios. Mean annual runoff is pre-
dicted to hardly change, with an increase of only 0.2% when the
impervious ratio increased from 3% to 31%, which was consistent
with the results of several studies in other regions (Choi and Deal,
2008; Franczyk and Chang, 2009). Choi and Deal (2008) studied
land use change impact on the hydrology of the Kishwaukee River
basin (KRB) in the Midwestern USA and found that the land use
scenarios result in small change in total runoff. Even under the
Uber scenario which is associated with very high population
growth, mean annual runoff has been predicted to increase by only
1.7% by 2051. Franczyk and Chang (2009) predicted that a 815%
expansion of urban land use throughout the Rock Creek basin
(Portland), will only result in a 2.32.5% increase in annual runoff
depths, respectively. A possible explanation for such phenomena is
that when impervious area increases, the direct runoff increases
while the baseow decreases, so that the total runoff would not in-
crease considerably. Another reason might arise from using SCS-CN
method for loss calculation; the original SCS-CN method is an inl-
tration loss model for single storm that does not account for evap-
oration and evapotranspiration, which might cause some errors in
long term simulation. The error caused by ignoring evaporation is
expected to increase as the impervious surface decreases.
3.7. Impact of urbanization on annual runoff for typical hydrological
years
An analysis was conducted between urbanization scenarios and
annual rainfall amounts to determine how annual rainfall amount
interacts with urbanization effects on runoff. Three typical hydro-
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2200
800
600
400
200
0
Rainfall
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
/
d
a
y
)
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
e
c
)
Date
Simulated
Observed
1-Jan-1990 1-Jul-1990 1-Jan-1991 1-Jul-1991 31-Dec-1991
Fig. 5. Comparison of daily observed and simulated stream ow selected from
calibration period.
0
400
800
1200
1600
600
400
200
0
Rainfall
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
m
m
/
d
a
y
)
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
e
c
)
Date
Simulated
Observed
1-Jan-2003 1-Jul-2003 1-Jan-2004 1-Jul-2004 31-Dec-2004
Fig. 6. Comparison of daily observed and simulated stream ow selected from
validation period.
Table 7
Summary of calibration and validation results for ood simulation at daily step.
Flood
No.
Observed peak ow
(m
3
/s)
Simulated peak
ow (m
3
/s)
Relative peak ow
error (%)
Observed ood
volume (mm)
Simulated ood
volume (mm)
Relative ood volume
error (%)
R E
198706
*
838 685 18 228 221 3 0.94 0.92
198708 704 732 4 131 187 43 0.85 0.72
198806
*
376 370 2 43 40 7 0.82 0.79
198906
*
560 647 4 106 99 7 0.95 0.95
198908 764 808 6 110 126 15 0.92 0.90
199106
*
1280 1541 20 322 348 8 0.85 0.83
199107 1262 1362 8 521 653 25 0.93 0.83
199603 246 204 17 24 21 15 0.99 0.90
199606 884 735 17 173 210 21 0.93 0.72
199806 583 532 9 128 126 2 0.63 0.46
199906 630.3 460 27 65 51 22 0.97 0.79
199907 878 754 14 132 142 8 0.83 0.73
200206 806 979 21 165 229 39 0.97 0.87
200306 1106 1115 2 352 483 38 0.85 0.75
200406 798 871 9 120 106 11 0.89 0.89
200607 595 556 7 112 101 10 0.90 0.81
Average 0.89 0.81
*
calibrated oods.
J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139 135
logical years (dry year with annual precipitation exceedence prob-
ability of 90%, normal year with annual precipitation exceedence
probability of 50%, and wet year with annual runoff exceedence
probability of 10%) are selected, which are 1994, 2000 and 1991
with annual precipitations of 695, 1055 and 1913 mm respectively.
Annual runoff depth increases very slightly with increasing
impervious surface area for all three typical hydrological years (Ta-
ble 8). The runoff increase percentages for the dry year are a little
bit bigger than that for the wet year under the same urbanization
scenarios; even when impervious ratio reaches 31%, the annual
runoff increased 5.6% in the dry year. Considering the model uncer-
tainty and that the largest increase in annual runoff was 13 mm
comparing with annual runoff 1384 mm at the baseline year,
urbanization has little effect on annual runoff, as explained at the
end of Section 3.6.
3.8. The impact of urbanization on ood events
The calibrated HEC-HMS model was applied to each of the
urbanization scenarios to assess the effects of urbanization on
ood events in the watershed. Eight ood events with different
magnitude peak discharges were selected to assess the potential
change in response to urbanization. The simulation results are pre-
sented in Tables 9 and 10, where it can be seen that (1) urban
developments affect peak ows and runoff volumes more than
long-term runoff, and (2) the ood volumes increased slightly
more than that of ood peaks for the same increase of impervious
surface ratio. These results agreed with those from Dreher and
Price (1997), Im et al. (2003) and Hejazi and Markus (2009). The
larger percentage increase in ood volume than that in ood peak
would increase the duration of ood inundation.
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
0
200
400
600
800
0
100
200
300
400
0
200
400
600
800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
400
800
1200
1600
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
250
500
750
1000
0
150
300
450
600
0
140
280
420
560
700
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
300
600
900
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
0 4 8 12 16 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 0 4 8 12
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 0 4 8 12 0 4 8 12 16
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16
0
150
300
450
600
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 198706
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 198708
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 198806
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 198906
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 198908
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199106
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199107
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199603
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199606
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199806
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199906
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 199907
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 200206
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 200306
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Storm 200406
Storm 200607
Simulated
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o
w

(
m
3
/
s
)
Time (day)
Observed
Fig. 7. Comparison of observed and simulated stream ow of 16 ood events.
Table 8
Simulated annual runoff under different urbanization scenarios.
Urbanization
scenarios
Impervious
ratio (%)
Long term Wet year Normal year Dry year
Simulated
annual runoff
(mm)
Increased
from1988
(%)
Simulated
annual runoff
(mm)
Increased
from1988
(%)
Simulated
annual runoff
(mm)
Increased
from1988
(%)
Simulated
annual runoff
(mm)
Increased
from1988
(%)
1988 3 431 1384 261 90
1994 6 431 0.0 1384 0.0 261 0.2 91 1.1
2001 8 431 0.0 1386 0.1 262 0.5 91 1.1
2003 9 431 0.0 1387 0.2 263 0.6 92 2.2
2006 14 432 0.2 1389 0.4 264 1.2 93 3.3
2009 20 432 0.2 1392 0.6 265 1.7 94 4.4
2012 24 432 0.2 1394 0.7 266 2.0 94 4.4
2018 31 432 0.2 1397 0.9 268 2.6 95 5.6
136 J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139
The results in Tables 9 and 10 also show that daily ood peak
discharges and ood volumes of small ood events increased due
to urbanization by a larger proportion than did those of large ood
events, which means that small oods are more sensitive to urban-
ization than large oods. This nding agrees well with the litera-
ture which reports that ood magnitudes of rare events are less
sensitive to increases in watershed impervious surface cover than
those with shorter recurrence intervals (Hollis, 1975; Booth,
1988; Konrad, 2003). Such phenomena were explained by Beighley
et al. (2003), who noted that for smaller events, near the threshold
of runoff, increased imperviousness resulted in signicantly more
runoff. For larger storms, the effect of increased imperviousness
was minimal because a larger fraction of the watershed saturates
relatively early during the event, essentially diminishing the ef-
fects of initial storage capacity provided by non-urban lands. For
a given increase in impervious area, the percent increase in peak
discharge and runoff volume generally decreases with increasing
rainfall magnitude. However, Sheng and Wilson (2009) found that
for small watersheds (with areas ranging from 4.7 to 229.7 km
2
)
both the frequent and rare oods were sensitive to urbanization.
This is because basin size inuences hydrological sensitivity to ur-
ban development, and smaller basins experience relatively greater
impacts than larger ones. It should also be noted that the relative
increase of ood peak and ood volume depends not only on the
relative increase of impervious surface, but also on the degree of
urbanization and geographic region.
3.9. Sensitivity of ood changes to increasing impervious surface
The sensitivity of peak discharge and ood volume to increasing
urbanization (impervious surface) was also examined. Fig. 8 shows
the simulated daily peak discharge and ood volume with increas-
ing impervious surface for various event magnitudes. All the curves
are close to linear, and the curve slopes of small oods are steeper
than those of large oods, which again means that small oods are
more sensitive to urbanization than are large oods. These results
are in agreement with those from Changnon et al. (1996), Bhaduri
et al. (2001) and Choi and Deal (2008), but not with that from Brun
Table 9
Peak ow response to urbanization.
Scenarios Impervious ratio 198706 200406 19910607 200306 198906 200607 199603 198806 Average (%)
Q
p
4 Q
p
4 Q
p
4 Q
p
4 Q
p
4 Q
p
4 Q
p
4 Q
p
4
1988 3 685 867 1541 1111 647 551 202 370
1994 6 687 0.3 869 0.2 1543 0.1 1113 0.2 649 0.3 551 0.0 203 0.5 372 0.5 0.3
2001 8 691 0.9 872 0.6 1546 0.3 1117 0.5 653 0.9 554 0.5 206 2.0 376 1.6 0.9
2003 9 693 1.2 874 0.8 1547 0.4 1119 0.7 656 1.4 554 0.5 207 2.5 377 1.9 1.2
2006 14 700 2.2 879 1.4 1555 0.9 1124 1.2 663 2.5 557 1.1 212 5.0 383 3.5 2.4
2009 20 709 3.5 886 2.2 1562 1.4 1133 2.0 672 3.9 561 1.8 218 7.9 390 5.4 3.5
2012 24 716 4.5 891 2.8 1567 1.7 1139 2.5 679 4.9 563 2.2 223 10.4 396 7.0 4.5
2018 31 726 6.0 898 3.6 1576 2.3 1147 3.2 688 6.3 567 2.9 230 13.9 405 9.5 6.0
Q
p
= Simulated peak ow (m
3
/s); 4= increased from1988 (%).
Table 10
Flood volume response to urbanization.
Scenarios Impervious ratio 198706 200406 19910607 200306 198906 200607 199603 198806 Average(%)
V
p
4 V
p
4 V
p
4 V
p
4 V
p
4 V
p
4 V
p
4 V
p
4
1988 3 221 105 348 481 99 100 20 40
1994 6 222 0.5 106 1.0 349 0.3 482 0.2 100 1.0 100 0.0 20 0.0 40 0.0 0.4
2001 8 224 1.4 107 1.9 351 0.9 485 0.8 100 1.0 101 1.0 21 5.0 41 2.5 1.8
2003 9 224 1.4 107 1.9 351 0.9 485 0.8 101 2.0 101 1.0 21 5.0 41 2.5 1.9
2006 14 226 2.3 109 3.8 353 1.4 488 1.5 102 3.0 101 1.0 22 10.0 42 5.0 3.5
2009 20 229 4.1 111 5.7 357 2.6 492 2.3 103 4.0 102 2.0 23 15.0 43 7.5 5.4
2012 24 231 4.5 112 6.7 359 3.2 496 3.1 105 6.1 103 3.0 24 20.0 44 10.0 7.1
2018 31 234 5.9 114 8.6 363 4.3 499 3.7 106 7.1 103 3.0 24 20.0 46 15.0 8.5
V
p
= Simulated ood volume (mm); 4= increased from 1988 (%).
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0
3
6
9
12
15
Flood 199603
Linear Fit of flood 199603
Flood 199106
Linear Fit of flood 199106
Flood 198706
Linear Fit of flood 198706
P
e
a
k

f
l
o
w

i
n
c
r
e
a
s
e

(
%
)
Impervious ratio (%)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
Flood 199603
Linear Fit of flood 199603
Flood 198706
Linear Fit of flood 198706
Flood 199106
Linear Fit of flood 199106
F
l
o
o
d

v
o
l
u
m
e

i
n
c
r
e
a
s
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(
%
)
Impervious ratio (%)
Fig. 8. The potential changes in peak ow and ood volume with increasing
impervious ratio for varied amplitudes of oods.
J. Du et al. / Journal of Hydrology 464465 (2012) 127139 137
and Band (2000) and Wissmar et al. (2004). In the study of Brun
and Band (2000), a logistic relationship between runoff ratio and
imperviousness, and an exponential relationship between base
ow and imperviousness was found when imperviousness was in-
creased up to 90%. Wissmar et al. (2004) found that the magnitude
of ood ows for urban watersheds in the lower Cedar River drain-
age in the US tends to increase nonlinearly when impervious ratios
reach 4374% levels. In the present study, the percentage of urban
land use is not high enough to result in nonlinear changes in ows.
4. Summary and conclusion
This paper has attempted to connect a distributed hydrological
model and a dynamic land use change model as a tool for examin-
ing urbanization inuences on annual runoff and ood of the
Qinhuai River watershed in Jiangsu Province, China. The hydrolog-
ical model based on Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydrologic
Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was calibrated and validated, and
repeatedly run with various urbanization scenarios. The urbaniza-
tion scenarios were developed based on historical land use maps
obtained from TM images and CBERS image, and future land use
maps were generated by an integrated Markov Chain and Cellular
Automata model (CA-Markov model). The following conclusions
are drawn from the study.
Firstly, there were slight increases in mean annual runoff of the
whole watershed as a response to urbanization, which implies that
the region is not likely to undergo signicant changes in the avail-
ability of surface water resource due to future urban growth
pressures.
Secondly, the changes of annual runoff in dry years are propor-
tionally greater than in wet years, which means that availability of
surfacewater resource indryyears is moresensitive tourbanization.
Thirdly, the daily ood peaks ow and ood volumes increase
with imperviousness for all ood events; daily peak ows increase
less than that of ood volume in all ood events due to urbaniza-
tion, daily peak ow discharges and ood volumes of small oods
increased proportionally more than those of large oods with the
same urbanization scenario, implying that small oods and ood
volumes would be more sensitive to urbanization.
Fourthly, the potential changes in peak discharge and ood vol-
ume with increasing impervious surface showed linear relation-
ships, and the curve slopes of small oods are steeper than those
of large oods. The possible reason for this linear relationship is
that the proportion of urban land use is not high enough to result
in nonlinear changes in ows.
It is worth noting that the CA-Markov model was used under
the assumption that the land management policy will remain the
same and that the hydrologic response of each hydrologic soil type
is constant during the entire study period. In reality, the land man-
agement policy should change, with newly built areas constructed
using low impact drainage design, which can mitigate the hydro-
logic impacts of urbanisation (Meierdiercks et al., 2010; Ogden
et al., 2011). Therefore, the changing land management policy,
hydrologic soil type and drainage networks will be considered in
our further studies.
Nevertheless, a framework is proposed in this study which is
composed of three segments: projecting future land use using a
distributed land use change model, developing urbanization sce-
narios by overlaying a series of impervious surfaces to a baseline
land use map, and assessing hydrologic response of urbanization
with a distributed hydrological model. Our study demonstrates
that this is a good approach to evaluate the hydrologic impacts
of urbanization, which must be considered in watershed manage-
ment, water resources planning, and ood planning for sustainable
development.
Acknowledgement
This work was supported by the National Natural Science
Foundation of China (No. 40730635) and the Priority Academic
Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
The corresponding author was also supported by the Programme
of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universitiesthe 111 Project
of Hohai University. The authors would like to express their great
thanks for the reviewers comments and suggestions which have
greatly improved the quality of the paper. Special thanks are given
to Prof. Tim Fletcher who kindly corrected the language and pro-
vided valuable comments and advice that greatly improved the
quality of the paper.
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