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, 2011.

, 2011.


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19982008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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100
101
104
105
106
109
109
110

115
115
120
122
124
132
146
148
151
153
154
155

159
159
160
175
176
178
182
183
185
185
187
189
190
194
195
196
196

,


. , . ,
. . . -, . ,
.

, . , . . ,
, , ,
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. : , ,
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: ,
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. , . , ,
, . .

() ()
,
[1]. (-10), :
(00-02),
(05-09),
(10-15),
(20-25),
(26-28),
(30-52),

(60-69),
, (70-79),
, (80-89),
(95-99).

, , . ,
. , , ,
. , , , . , , , [2, 3, 4].
.
, [5]. ,
[6].
[7]. , , . . ,
. [6, 8].
,
. [9].

20. . 21.
. .
.
,
[10, 11, 12].

[13]. , . 49% :
55% 43% [14, 15].

. .

(), 1990. 17 ,
2020. 25 [16, 17].
30% . , ,
, [8, 17].
, , 2006. 17,5 , 30% . 2006. 5,1 , 52%
[18].
. , , 41%, 32%, 27% [14].
, , , , 18 2000. ( 1).
, , ,
, , , , [19, 20].
.
: 33% , 39% , 48%
52% [14, 21].
, ,
, 1 2. 2006. 59 (27 32 ). 2006. (57,3%). 2006. 567,0
100.000 .
1. (DALY/1000) ; , 2000.


()




DALY/1000
18,1
12,4
8,8
6,7
5,7
5,3

2,3

1
2
4
5
6
7

DALY/1000
7,9
10,3
1,8
1,8
5,8
8,8
4,3
3,0

3
1
12
12
8
2
4
5

: The Burden of Disease and Injury in Serbia. Belgrade: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Serbia; 2003
DALY ,


1000

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008.

1. (00-99)
19982008.


750
706,1
700
672,1
658,2
650

668,7

657,2

657,4

646,4

626,1

645,9

610,5

600

627,3

624,3

605,9

612,3

606,9
598,9

613,1

577,5
574,5

550


500

1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

547,7
542,7

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

528,1
2008.

2. (00-99) 19982008.

. .

2.
19982008.

1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.



0099
99376
57336 (57,7%)
101444
58002 (57,2%)
104042
58098 (55,8%)
99008
54747 (55,3%)
102785
56754 (55,2%)
103946
57376 (55,2%)
104320
56868 (54,5%)
106771
60684 (56,8%)
102884
58925 (57,3%)
102805
57608 (56,0%)
102711
57343 (55,8%)
1130092
633741 (56,1%)



0099
3725
2156 (57,9%)
3961
2334 (58,9%)
3967
2161 (54,5%)
3800
2142 (56,4%)
4059
2275 (56,0%)
3999
2223 (55,6%)
3871
2203 (56,6%)
4320
2599 (60,2%)
4072
2474 (60,8%)
4159
2417 (58,1%)
4058
2406 (59,3%)
43991
25390 (57,7%)

3. , 1998
2008.

1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.

0099
2156
2334
2161
2142
2275
2223
2203
2599
2474
2417
2406
25390


1015
2025
86 (4,0%)
390 (18,1%)
37 (1,6%)
450 (19,3%)
56 (2,6%)
226 (10,5%)
23 (1,1%)
518 (24,2%)
62 (2,7%)
560 (24,6%)
65 (2,9%)
540 (24,3%)
76 (3,4%)
557 (25,3%)
99 (3,8%)
621 (23,9%)
36 (1,5%)
506 (20,5%)
41 (1,7%)
528 (21,8%)
55 (2,3%)
582 (24,2%)
636 (2,5%)
5478 (21,6%)

6069
512 (23,7%)
598 (25,6%)
608 (28,1%)
543 (25,4%)
583 (25,6%)
621 (27,9%)
575 (26,1%)
599 (23,0%)
536 (21,7%)
550 (22,8%)
570 (23,7%)
6295 (24,8%)

479,4 100.000 ,
( 2 3; 3).

, 2005. 632,6 100.000 ,
544,2 100.000 [12, 22]. , , , [20].

30

25
69

25
20
15
10
5
0

1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

3. (%)
19982008.

,
. ,
, . , 100% , [19].
, . (American Heart Association), 2006. 430 , [23].

20. , 21. , . , 4 5 [24, 25, 26].

, .

10

. .

18,6

17,2

17,2

17,0
16,3

7,8

7,0

5,5

10

12

14

16

18

20

4. 60 2007.

90
80

80.2

75.4

80.1
72.7

70

79.9
73.5

68.0

66.2

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

5. 2006.
: , (http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/)

11

, . ,
. ,
[27, 28].
. , ,
.
.
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,
.

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:
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,
(
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6, 7 8.

12

. .


200

183,1

182

183,1

180
160
140

166,9

172,6

163,4

147,5

144,7

175,3

156,3

176,6
164,4

168,8

162,5

153,8

160,3
140,4

146,4

143,7

120

123,1

124

126

100
80
60
40




20
0

1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

6. (60-69) 19982008.


200

179,4

180
160
140
120

151
153,8
141,7

178,9

173,4

154,1

175,7
155,9

146
141,3

138

160,1

149,8
129,5

130,8

100

139

127

122,8

120

122,3
97,6

80
60
40




20
0

10

11

7. (60-69) 19982008.

13

3539


4000

4044
4549

3500

5054
5559

3000

6064
6569

2500

7074
7579

2000

8084
85

1500
1000
500
0
1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

8. (60-69) 19982008.


(20-25) . , :
,
,
,
.
, , , , . , , 25% [29].
:
1. .
2. , , ,
. ,
(
).
3. , ,

14

. .

, .
4. ,
.
5. , , .
, [2, 21].
MONICA ,
2020.
128% 137% , 29% 48%
[30].
( 6% ), [17].
, . 2% . ,
[18].
9-15.


1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
039

4044

4549

5054

5559

6064

6569

7074

75

9.
20062008.

15


10000

1000

467,35
164,36

535,24

786,64

239,09
262,74

100

411,46

1113,13

1226,01

563,59

650,51

1245,5
898,91

144,99
79,16
12,67

38,48

10

5,32
1
039

4044

4549

5054

5559

6064

6569

7074

75

10. 20062008.


180
160
140
120
100

120,6
119,7
110,3

129,5

80

129,9

123,9

140,8
124,9

155,3

118
125,8

138,8

145,8
130,9

134,9
129,3

142,9

120,6
122
127,9

138,4

67,5

60
40



20
0
1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

11. (20-25)
19982008.

16

. .


250

200
174,1

173,4

185,1

194,4
178,7

158

169,1

166,2

164,4
154,5

150

89,4

100

107,6

119,6

109,8

119,4

120,2
97,5

89,4
50

102,8

96,5

71
51,6

1998.

1999.

2000.



2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

12. (20-25)
19982008.


90
80

83
76,5

70
60

72,9
71

73,4
69,4

63,9

68,8
68,6
77,2

67,6

70,9
61,9

50

70,3
63,1

69,9
69,2

65
64,5

58,7

60,8
61,9

40
30
20



10
0

1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

13. (21)
19982008.

17


120

110,5

106,3
100

98,2

98,4

95,3
89

87,7

86,7

86,4
77,4

80

82,4

60
55,5
45,9

40

51,2

58,5

54,8
41

45

41,2

44,5

44,5

34,4
20



1

10

11

14. (21)
19982008.


3500
3000
2500

3539
4044
4549
5054
5559
6064
6569
7074
7579
8084
85

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

15. - 2008.

18

. .

2007.
23%, 43%.
. 2006.
4,8% ( 3,1%, 5,4%, 10%), [16, 22].
(, ,
). ,
. , , 19901999. 50%,
, [17, 30, 31].

. , , , , , , , , [6, 15, 18].
60% ( DALYs
Disability-Adjusted Life Years;
) : (12,8%), (12,3%), (10,1%), (8,7%), (7,8%), (4,4%) (3,5%) ( 4).
4. (DALY/1000 ) ; , 2000.

DALY/1000

35,2
12,5
21,7
17,5
3,1
1,7
5,7
1,5
14,9
12,2
19,5
16,3

: The Burden of Disease and Injury in Serbia. Belgrade: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Serbia; 2003

19

()
. (, , .)
- , (, , ), [31, 32, 33].
2000. , 2006. 6,9%,
7,2% 12%. 2% 1% [16, 22]. 5 16.
5. (%) 2000.
2006.

2000.
2006.
69,0
57,8
23,9
27,7
52,6
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2006.
40,5
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: , (2000. 2006. )

100
90
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60
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30
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20062008.

20

. .


, , , , . ,
, [34].
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, . , :
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;
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21

6. 2000. 2006.
(%)







2000.
2006.
77,5
79,5
47,7
57,6
28,8
35,2
67,3
50,1
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2000.
2006.
71,9
56,6
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( 6)
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2006. 33,8% 2000. (40,5%).
2006. 54,8%, 44,0% , 2000. (42,5%, 34,4%).

. , . .

, 25 [2, 17].

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23

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24

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25


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26

. .

. . 4,14 mmol/l.
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27

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.

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17.

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40



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0

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2000.

32,9

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2002.

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2005.

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28

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,
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[29].

29

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,
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. , .
:
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, .
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.

30

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.
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, . 2, ,
[41].
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, .
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,
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:

31

1. , ;
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4. .


.

. ,
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[43].
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, , [43].


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32

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33


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.

34

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7.
2000. 2006. (%)


2000.
2006.


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.
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35

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.
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.
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36

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1,9 1,7 . ( ). - . [51].

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, .
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.
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.
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37


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. , 2,96 [17, 52].

. , , .

[45, 54].

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.
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38

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,
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[55, 56].

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, [29].
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. ,

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.
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39

. 50% , [58].


. .
, , 1.000 . , ,
, , . [55].
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.
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.

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[14].

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,

40

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:
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1998 2008.
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, , ,
.

41


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.
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.
8. , - ; , 19982008.

r
0,609
0,630
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1.000
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SO2
NO2

60





1.000

p
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r ( , ); p

42

. .

9. , - ; , 19982008.

r
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1.000
1.000





1.000
1.000






1.000
1.000

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0,037
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10. ; , 19982008.

NO2

65


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t
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0,007
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B ; SE ;

43

11. ; , 19982008.

NO2

65

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0,256
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32,584
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SE
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0,138
0,000
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1,114

1,059
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0,777
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t
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12. ;
, 19982008.

B
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1,461

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t
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p
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13. ; , 19982008.

NO2

65

B
0,548
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24,721
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SE
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0,084
0,000
0,667
0,676

1,149
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0,298
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t
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37,055
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p
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0,011
0,037
0,17
0,006

14. : / ; , 19982008.

SE

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0,012

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0,013

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0,001

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0,026

3,737-03

0,001

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0,002

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0,008

/
/

-6,503-


, , , .

44

. .

, , ,
[10, 21, 23]. , , , ,
.
, . , . , , , [6, 8, 11].

, . , , [18].

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52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
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. .

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51

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19982008.

1998.
1999.
2000.
2001.
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.

17183
9759 (56,8%)
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, 78% , , .
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). , .
.
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, . , , . 16, 18, 6 11, , 16 [63].

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74

. .

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, [27, 34].
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). 50-100% . , , . , .
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() . 2002.
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[66].

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75

3-5 . . - BRCA1 17q BRCA2 13q, .



,
(100/100.000). , (20-40/100.000),
(5/100.000). 2002.
680.000 ,
220.000 , 60% .
( )
, .
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- . 8q24 17q12,
[67].
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.
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76

. .



50% .
,
.
, , . , , , , , ,
[69].
.
, , , . , .
, .
90% .
, . ,
50% , ,
.

. 1998-2008., . . .

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113

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. 1999. 13,98/100.000, 2,33/100.000 ( 10).
23,6% 2001,
38,7% 2005. , - , . ( 58,2%) 2005. , (10,68%). ,
2000. , 6:1, , ( 11).

20
18,3
18

17,2

17,8
16,6

16,5
15,7

16
14

16,3
15,1

16,1
15,1

16,0

14,5

14.5
13,1

12,9

12
11,7
10
8
6
1999.

13,0

11,1

10,6

1998.

13,1

2000.

2001.

7,1

7,3

2002.

2003.




2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

10. (X60X84)
19982008.

169

2000. , , 18 , , [35]. 31,9%


, 10,4% ( 11).
15,1 100.000 [25]. , 15,1/100.000 ( 12).
- 2008. 75 (43,31/100.000);
70-74 (39,45/100.000) 65-69 (27,81/100.000).
20-24 (5,09/100.000),
15 ( 13). -
75 , .
(. ), , ,
[22, 23].
15-24 , 15-34 .
. 15-24
25
22,6

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21,4

16,8

15
11,4

11,0

10

10,7
8,0

6,8

5,8

5,3
3,8

7,4

1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

3,4

3,7

2002.

2003.

3,2
2004.

5,0



2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

11. 19982008.

170

. .

30

27,62

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25

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15

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0

2004-2007.

12.
2007.

50
43,3

45
40
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35
30

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0

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1014 1519 2024 2529 3034 3539 4044 4549 5054 5559 6064 6569 7074

75

13. -
2008.

171

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14,0

14
12

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0
1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2002.

2003.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

14. 15-24
19982008.

1.8
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%
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2002.

2003.




0.4
1998.

1999.

2000.

2001.

2004.

2005.

2006.

2007.

2008.

15. 1998
2008.

172

. .

(, ), , [21].

15-24 . , 1997. 2007.
. 1997. 17%, 2007. 13%, 43%.

1,05%
1998. 1,11% 2008. ( 14). :
1,47% 1998. 1,26% 2008. ( 15).
19982008. ( ) [5]. 1-4.
,
-
, , ,
,
( 5).
, , , .
1. 19982008.

r
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-0,770

p
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r ( , ); p

2. 19982008.

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0,639
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173

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. , , , ,
.
3. , -
19982008.


2

1.000




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4. , 19982008.






1.000
1.000

r
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0,858
0,816
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5. 19982008.




1.000

B
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SE
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B ; SE ; ;

174

. .


.
, . , 25% [34].
,
. ,
: , , ,
, , . , ,
. ,
. ,
, [36].
DALY 2006.
2030. [9], (DALY/1000) 2002. ( 6). ,
6.
(DALY) 2002. 2030.



/

2002.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
17

2030.
5
8
1
1
12
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7
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10
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14

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+4
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+3

: Mathers CD, Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med. 2006; 3(11):e442. [9]

175

7. (DALY) 2030.

1
2
3
1
2
3
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2
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3.


/





/


/

DALY (%)
12,1
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5,8
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14,6
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: Mathers CD, Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med. 2006; 3(11):e442. [9]

2030. , ,
( 7).

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20 . :
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%

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(11% 1,5%) ( 9).
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, 61,7%
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(41,6%), (44,1%) (39%) ( 10).
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(%)


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180

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(16,5%). , , , ,
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(%)

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(%)
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181

. 2006. (62,8%), (32,6%)


(21,7%). , , , , .
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, [7].
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,
(3-4 , 7-9 ).
. 350-700 ,
[12].
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[57];
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183


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, [8].
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(DALY :


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)

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544

206

226

267

574

647

203

262

298

560

652

407

452

502

690

1588

1155

1339

1350

1765

: World Health Organization. Disease Control Priorities Related to Mental, Neurological, Developmental and Substance Abuse Disorders.
2nd ed. Geneva: WHO; 2006. [12]

184

. .



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, .

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[59].

185

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(amafufunyana) (ukuthwasa), . , . ,
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15. , , (Bethlem Royal Hospital). 18. 19. , , ,
.
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.
,

186

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100.000

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0,05
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0,6

: World Health Organization. Mental Health Atlas 2005. Geneva: WHO; 2005. [51]

14.
10.000


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; 62%
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8-12

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. .

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. ; , , . : ,
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195

. 1998-2008., . . .

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

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