Source: World Policy Journal, Vol. 11, No. 4 (Winter, 1994/1995), pp. 101-121 Published by: The MIT Press and the World Policy Institute Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40209389 . Accessed: 30/05/2014 16:21 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. . Sage Publications, Inc. is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to World Policy Journal. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions REC#NSIDERATI#NS Benjamin Schwarz is an analyst in the international policy department at RAND. The Vision Thing Sustaining the Unsustainable Benjamin Schwarz This president's foreign policy is gravely lacking. It is marked by "drift," by "a series of reactions to events shaped increasingly by other countries," say seasoned and sober jour- nalists, think-tank analysts, and the foreign policy mandarins of both political parties. With the end of the Cold War, we are told, the United States needs the kind of broad foreign policy vision of Dean Acheson, George Marshall, and those other demigods who created America's last postwar policy, but this resident has utterly failed to "put foward a coherent vision of America's role in the world" and "to exert the domestic and international leadership" necessary to "estab- lish a viable system of global security." He flits from crisis to crisis, never stepping back from the crush of events to design "structures," "frameworks," "overarching" concepts, and "architectures." The Econo- mist's magisterial verdict encapsulates, as it always does, the conventional wisdom: when it comes to foreign policy, the president is "by nature reactive.... He is not good at strategy and forethought."1 This might be a pretty accurate sum- mary of expert opinion regarding President Clinton's foreign policy, except that the Economist and the other journals quoted above {Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, New York Review of Books, and Current History) were assessing the foreign policy of George Bush. Although potential Republican presi- dential candidates (especially those who served in his administration) portray Presi- dent Bush's foreign policy in a nostalgic, golden light, it was at the time regarded with enormous disappointment. To be sure, the foreign policy establishment conceded that President Bush, Secretary of State James Baker, National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, and Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney were all steady foreign policy professionals - as they displayed during the Gulf crisis - but there was a consensus that mere competence would not do. Given the foreign policy experts' belief that the post- Cold War world demanded that America build and lead a new world order and all its attendant structures, frameworks, and archi- tectures, the administration's foreign policy would be judged not by its skill at carpen- try, but by the imagination and creativity of its design, by the breadth and depth of, yes, its "vision." The foreign policy Brahmins wanted not a talented artisan, but a Mies van der Rohe. On this score they agreed that Bush failed, as they now agree that Clinton is failing. Unfortunately for the foreign policy community, Bush's foreign policy failure - as Clinton's shows - was the shape of things to come. As we shall see, Bush and his suc- cessor do in fact share a foreign policy vi- sion. Their critics among the foreign policy cognoscenti - who hold this same vision - no doubt find it comforting to believe that if only the state were guided by a leader with the requisite eyeglass prescription, the second half of the American Century would be secured. These critics would rather not face the truth that presidents who in fact share their vision are increasingly unable to realize it - that Bush's and Clinton's frustra- tions can't be ascribed to myopia, but, like Gatsby's, result from an excess of vision, The Vision Thing 101 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions from an attempt to reify a brilliant vision that is already behind them. Do We Want a Vision? The apparent necessity of a new vision for the post- Cold War world nostalgically im- plies that America's foreign policy during the Cold War was itself informed by a vi- sion. Perhaps it was. But to the extent that the Cold War foreign policy vision was a re- sponse to the Soviet threat (the disappear- ance of which would be the only reason to come up with a new vision), it would not pass the test of today's vision-seekers. First, the strategy of containment was (according to the conventional wisdom) responsive and, as such, lacked the activist quality vision en- thusiasts require. Nothing seems less likely to stir the hearts of visionaries than a strat- egy that, for 40-odd years, consisted of sit- ting on a static line drawn down the middle of Europe and slowly, steadily spending the Soviet empire to death. Second, a vision must apparently be consistent. But with the exception of the above sitting-and-spending strategy applied in Europe, containment was, thankfully, anything but consistent. Communism was contained here, but not there, "rollback" was tried there, but not here. Policymakers deemed it tolerable that all of Country X go to the Communists, but only half of Country Y, and none of Country Z. The essence of statecraft is discrimina- tion on the basis of power, interest, and cir- cumstance. In calling for a vision, the for- eign policy mandarins in fact demanded that Bush (and now Clinton) forsake state- craft. In a world that before, during, and af- ter the Cold War demands caution and flexi- bility, those calling for visions demand a slavish consistency. Harvard's Stanley Hoff- mann, for instance, ignoring arguments re- garding the different U.S. interests per- ceived to be at stake and the different risks involved, complained in 1992 of the Bush administration's differing treatment of Iraq, on the one hand, and Serbia and Haiti, on the other. Hoffmann thus concluded that the chief weakness of Bush's diplomacy was its "inconsistency" and that the administra- tion's foreign policy was hence "more a mat- ter of improvisation than strategy."2 In retrospect, is it really fair to fault Bush, as Leon Sigal of the New York Times Editorial Board did in 1992, because "he failed to devise a foreign policy squaring na- tional self-determination with state sover- eignty and minority rights, to stanch blood- letting in Bosnia, and to prevent the prolif- eration of all arms, not just weapons of mass destruction"?3 This is a pretty tall order, whose first part demands a single, absolute, and hence dangerous foreign policy formula and whose second and third parts appear to betray the belief that the United States is nothing short of omnipotent, a proposition that would seem to have been put to rest long ago. Such requirements would con- demn any president's handling of interna- tional affairs to be judged a failure. A clean and consistent vision is incompatible with the push and pull of policy; in the world in which presidents act, ideas are forced to fight a grinding battle with necessity. A foreign policy vision is a good deal more than a set of general guidelines. Brit- ain's traditional foreign policy aim to ensure a balance of power among the states of west- ern Europe, for instance, has never appealed to visionaries. Otto von Bismarck's or Gus- tav Stresemann's foreign policy strategies, which amounted to adroit maneuvering among the Continental powers to allow for the safe accretion of German strength, were really tactical fine-tuning on a grand scale, informed by no more alluring a vision than the stark glare of realpolitik. Furthermore, the grander the foreign policy vision, the more a state is trapped within a tyranny of its own construct. At its worst, a "vision" is a straitjacket for policy, which is why most of history's great statesmen, who have prized practicality and opportunism, reached for their revolvers upon hearing the demands of visionaries. 1 02 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Those who castigated Bush - and now Clinton - for a visionless foreign policy ne- glected to ask whether in fact America would benefit from a vision. They also for- got that, historically, secure and satisfied powers have generally remained immune to the vision thing. After all, until the First World War, America's visionary and expan- sive foreign policies were the manifestation of a growing power that wanted something. America's most ambitious foreign policy vi- sions - Manifest Destiny and the imperial- ism of the late nineteenth century - both sprang from complex sets of racial, eco- nomic, and strategic motivations, but at bot- tom, both arose from a sense of inadequacy and insecurity, deserved or not. Similarly, Britain's late-nineteenth-century imperialist vision was motivated, not by confidence, but by fear; Britain's vision, note historians Ronald Robinson and John Gallagher, "grew more and more committed to the warding off of hypothetical dangers by the advancing of frontiers."4 American foreign policy visions in this century have been, or have been publicly portrayed as, the ideological products of grand coalitions in pursuit of a common en- emy - Wilsonianism (a response to the threats of both German imperialism and so- cialist revolution); Roosevelt's and Chur- chill's shared vision of an antifascist world order articulated in the Atlantic Charter; the internationalist and containment poli- cies of the postwar period; the current sum- mons to crusade in the name of the "West" versus the rest. Visions are hence most often negatively defined, and the more all-encom- passing the threat, the more all-encompass- ing - the more "visionary" - the vision. If it is lucky, then, a state doesn't need a foreign policy vision. Nevertheless, Bush's critics were intent upon foisting a vision on a mostly uninter- ested America. The great irony of the cri- ticism that Bush endured for his lack of vision is that, while circumstances made fol- lowing a foreign policy vision extremely dif- ficult for his administration, Bush, in fact, had quite a consistent vision, one that would have been praised by most of his in- ternationalist critics, if only he had been able to pursue it fully. Bush's Vision With the collapse of the enemy that had os- tensibly defined American foreign policy for over 40 years, much was made of Bush as the first president since Truman who didn't have an enemy thrust upon him. (To be sure, many of America's Cold War presi- dents had been able to tweak the dominant vision of containment a bit - Carter in one direction, Reagan in the other, for in- stance - but their various doctrines were slight variations on a single theme.) All Cold War presidents operated within a con- struct that demanded that America assume a certain role in the world, even if (in Lyn- don Johnson's case, for example) they re- sented leading the country in that role. To those who believed that American foreign policy since 1947 was essentially the story of the U.S. response (paranoid, clumsy, or prudent) to the threat of a superpower rival, Bush had the first opportunity in 50 years to define a fundamentally new foreign pol- icy vision. But Bush didn't see it that way. It was not that Bush was bereft of vision, it was just that he continued to be possessed by the very vision that had animated American foreign policy since the Second World War. He believed it vital that America contine to play its familiar world role and, more than anything else in his professional life, he wanted to lead America in that effort. In the first year of his presidency ob- servers painted a picture of the Bush foreign policy that, while crude, nonetheless en- dures. According to this view, Bush, a prod- uct of the Cold War years, could not divorce himself from "Cold War thinking" and was thus unable to craft a fundamentally new foreign policy vision. While this argument is true, it is completely wrong in the way The Vision Thing 103 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions that these observers understand it. The prob- lem lies in its terms of reference. As conven- tionally understood, this argument rests on a gross oversimplification of America's Cold War foreign policy. What these observers would like to think of as a "fundamentally new" foreign policy is, in fact, a foreign pol- icy in which the essentials of Cold War pol- icy remain inviolate (and is precisely, in fact, the vision that Bush pursued). The standard argument maintains that Bush was very well-prepared to preside steadily, firmly, and pragmatically over the seemingly eternal U.S.-Soviet rivalry, but when the Soviets left the field, Bush didn't know what to do. He could tidy up the de- tails from the old agenda - ease the Soviets' retreat from Eastern Europe and reach broad arms control agreements with them, for ex- ample - but he was at a loss when it came to defining a "new" agenda for a "new" world. Bush, however, did not spend his life merely preparing to manage the superpower compe- tition. He had been preparing for a far grander assignment, one that transcended the Soviet Union's collapse. Despite the pork rinds and practiced Texas twang, Bush - the scion of responsi- ble Republican internationalism - was America's first Eastern Establishment presi- dent since FDR. Inspired to enlist in the navy when, as a senior at Phillips Andover Academy, he heard Secretary of War Henry Stimson address his class, Bush was a genu- ine hero in the war that established the American Century. His opponents sneered that the political offices on Bush's polished resume were almost exclusively appointive foreign policy positions; they failed to under- stand that to Bush and his class, these were the only political jobs worth holding and foreign policy was the only policy worth making. Perhaps Bush lacked imagination, but that has never been a prized quality within the foreign policy community. (Nothing brilliant has ever emerged from a postwar Council on Foreign Relations study group.) Obviously, Bush was perfectly pre- pared to preside over the Cold War. But that gives him too little credit. By virtue of his outlook and experience, no man in America was more qualified to direct his country's foreign policy. The important point is that Bush, reflecting the viewpoint of the community from which he emerged, did not conflate Cold War policy with the internationalist foreign policy of the Eastern Establishment. In this respect, the contrast with his predecessor could not have been stronger. As vice president, Bush was often dismayed that Ronald Reagan equated American for- eign policy with the struggle with the So- viet Union. He believed that Reagan, who saw foreign policy solely in ideological terms, neglected the broader purposes of that policy. Bush's uneasiness with Reagan's embrace of Mikhail Gorbachev stemmed less from suspicion of Moscow's motives than from the fear that Reagan's willingness to abandon the U.S.-Soviet rivalry would jeopardize enduring American interests that were unrelated to that rivalry. (In the same way, Bush was revolted by some of his fel- low Republicans' Manichean understanding of foreign policy, which led them to believe that, with the defeat of the "evil empire," America could now come home.) The arcane outlook of Bush and his fellow high-interna- tionalists is well characterized by a descrip- tion of the makers of British foreign policy in the nineteenth century: "Striving to keep grand conceptions of world policy... their purposes were usually esoteric and their ac- tions were usually inspired by notions of the world situation and calculations of its dan- gers which were peculiar to the official mind."5 The internationalist mind's peculiar vi- sion of American foreign policy saw in the end of the Cold War more of a threat than an opportunity. Central to Bush's foreign policy vision was an obsession with leader- ship. In dealing with nearly every foreign policy issue - from low-intensity conflict, to global defense planning, to U.S.-European 1 04 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions relations - and on nearly every occasion, President Bush and his advisers passionately spoke of what his secretary of state, James Baker, has recently called "the imperative of American leadership." To them, U.S. involvement in interna- tional affairs was synonymous with this global leadership role; America engaging in the world meant America playing the pre- dominate role in the world. Thus, Bush characterized his notion of American post- Cold War foreign policy as "peacetime en- gagement," which he defined as nothing less than a continuation of the leadership role America had assumed since the Second World War. This was, and remains, far more than globalist rhetoric. After all, without an evil empire, politicians largely lost the do- mestic political mileage to be gained from an internationally activist stance, and many of Bush's fellow Republicans had no diffi- culty abandoning it. Bush, on the other hand - even during the dark days of the Pat Buchanan insurgency and the nasty battle against Ross Perot - repeatedly lectured to a public that was at best impatient and at worst hostile to his "obsession" with foreign affairs that "international leadership" was "more important than ever." Foreign policy was not an important issue in the 1992 cam- paign, but had it been - had, for instance, Bush run against a candidate whose isola- tionist stance proved a vote-getter - it is im- possible to imagine that Bush, an otherwise notoriously unprincipled campaigner who has said that he would do anything to win, would not, on this issue, have risen to the occasion and heroically fought a losing bat- tle, exhorting the voters to reject a dimin- ished international role for America. It is equally impossible to conceive of Bush fall- ing on his sword over any other issue, or even caring very much about any other issue. In this way, his few public passions - an abiding belief in internationalism and a real hatred of isolationism - did seem anachro- nistic for a politician in the last decade of the twentieth century. His party's right wing, and the electorate, knew that the president's pandering concerning the issues about which Americans today feel deeply - taxes, abortion, crime and capital punish- ment, affirmative action, prayer in the schools - was for Bush merely duty, not passion. After his 1992 defeat, when he was no longer required to expatiate uncomfortably about family values and tax-and-spend liber- als, Bush spent much time and effort pro- ducing a pair of heartfelt farewell addresses, his bequest to the nation, meant to be his equivalent to Washington's valedictory in- junction against "entangling alliances" and Eisenhower's parting warning about the "military-industrial complex." Bush's speeches at West Point and Texas A&M invoked a vision identical to Stimson's, which had so moved the president 50 years earlier. Speaking of "America's purpose in the world," Bush could not have more closely echoed his own detractors within the for- eign policy community in his insistence that the cause of international stability and global capitalism demand that America "an- swer history's summons to lead." As his strongest passions transformed the most in- consequential nuisance into nemesis, the archinternationalist president returned to his fixation with finding isolationists under beds, confusing the battles of the 1940s with those of the 1990s. Again conflating primacy with participation, Bush warned that "a retreat from American leadership, from American involvement, would be a mistake for which future generations, in- deed our own children, would pay dearly." The greatest mistake the country could make, he argued, would be to heed the coun- sel of those who maintained that America should, after the Cold War, become "passive and aloof," a combination that many be- lieve, astonishingly, sums up Bush's foreign policy. The Vision Thing 105 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions "Leadership" Past and Present This impression is especially ironic given Bush's repeated arguments that America must not only be active and engaged, but that it must "lead." To the uninitiated, the notion that the United States must continue to lead when the superpower threat against which it was ostensibly leading has vanished seems puzzling. But neither Bush nor his critics among the foreign policy cognoscenti ever conceived of the need for American leadership in terms of that threat. In fact, what is popularly thought of as the Cold War was merely an instrumental part of America's larger postwar strategy. As Sen. Arthur Vandenberg said in 1949, in "scar- ing the hell out of the American people," the U.S.-Soviet rivalry helped secure domes- tic support for Washington's international- ist agenda: the creation of a U.S.-dominated world order. To Bush and the other leaders of U.S. foreign policy, the fundamental aim of America's foreign policy - during and after the Cold War - has been, in the words of NSC-68, the National Security Council's 1950 blueprint that defined Washington's broader Cold War strategy, "to foster a world environment in which the American system can survive and flourish" - a policy that, NSC-68 maintained, "we would prob- ably pursue even if there was no Soviet threat." This aim ultimately dictated that America dominate - or, to be politic, "lead" - the international system. The vision that has possessed American statesmen from Cordell Hull to James Baker - a cooperative economic and political order among the world's advanced industri- alized states - was a machine that would not go of itself. In 1949, John Foster Dulles ex- plained to a closed Senate panel that an American-led NATO, as opposed, for in- stance, to an exclusively European security system on the Continent, was necessary to counter the basic obstacle to achieving the kind of international order believed neces- sary for America's - and the world's - peace and prosperity. To build a successful interna- tional economic and political community, Dulles reasoned, Germany's integration with Western Europe was imperative. The problem, the future secretary of state main- tained, was that the Western Europeans were "afraid to bring that strong, powerful, highly concentrated group of people into unity with them." Similarly, as Dulles, Dean Acheson, and other policymakers un- derstood, a strong Japan was at once essen- tial for building a prosperous international order and intolerable to its neighbors. Since the 1940s (and arguably since 1917), the fundamental challenge facing U.S. diplomacy, then, has been to foster a world order within an international system characterized, as David Hume recognized 250 years ago, by "the narrow malignity and envy of nations, which can never bear to see their neighbors thriving, but continually re- pine at any new efforts toward industry made by any other nation."6 The only solu- tion, for Bush and his postwar predecessors, was to alter international politics by impos- ing a Pax Americana - that is, American global leadership. Containing the Allies America's Cold War policy is best under- stood, not by its communism-containing rhetoric, but by its ally-containing deeds. By providing for Germany's and Japan's se- curity and by enmeshing their military and foreign policies into alliances that it domi- nated, the United States contained its erst- while enemies, preventing its "partners" from embarking upon independent (and, by Washington's thinking, potentially danger- ous) policies. This stabilized relations among the states of Western Europe and East Asia, for by controlling Germany and Japan, the United States "reassured" their neighbors that these most powerful allies would remain pacific. Freed from the fears and competitions that had for centuries kept them nervously looking over their shoulders, the West Euro- 1 06 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions peans (and East Asians) were able to cooper- ate politically and economically. A return to a world of independent states jockeying for power and advantage seemed, to this logic, a return to the international political and eco- nomic fragmentation of the 1930s. It was, after all, an independent western Europe that had toppled the Pax Britannica and its beneficent global order. Recognizing that Europe and East Asia could not be left to their own devices in the postwar world, or once again the weak would fear the strong and the strong would fear each other, Wash- ington pursued not balance and diversity, but hegemony. The same concerns fed the Bush admini- stration's fears of a world without American predominance. For example, the Bush ad- ministration's deputy assistant secretary of defense for policy, Alberto Coll, painted a harrowing picture in 1992 of a world in which America's international leadership had declined. He foresaw "a Europe break- ing its Atlantic ties and plunging into unabashed mercantilism, a Middle East heading toward catastrophe, a Pacific Rim riven by resurrected political jealousies and arms races."7 To Bush's Pentagon, America's leadership in ameliorating others' security problems - manifest in its Cold War alli- ances - continued to be vital even with the Soviet Union's demise. After all, the now infamous draft of the Pentagon's 1992 "post-Cold War" Defense Planning Guidance, which gave the public an unprecedented glimpse into the thinking behind Washington's security strategy, merely restated in somewhat undiplomatic language the logic behind America's Cold War strategy. The United States, it argued, must continue to dominate the international system by "discouraging the advanced indus- trialized nations from challenging our lead- ership or even aspiring to a larger global or regional role." To accomplish this, the United States must keep Japan and the for- mer great powers of western Europe firmly within the constraints of the U.S.-created postwar system, by providing what one high-ranking Bush Pentagon official termed "adult supervision." America must protect the interests of virtually all potential great powers so that they need not acquire the ca- pabilities to protect their interests them- selves, that is, so that they need not act like great powers. The very existence of truly independent actors would be intolerable to the United States, for it would challenge American pre- dominance, the key to a stable world. The draft Defense Planning Guidances post-Cold War preponderance strategy reflected what historian Melvyn Leffler defines as the im- perative of America's Cold War national se- curity policy: that "neither an integrated Europe, nor a united Germany nor an inde- pendent Japan must be permitted to emerge as a third force."8 America's partners were understandably troubled by the impolitic language of the draft Planning Guidance, so the Bush Penta- gon issued a sanitized, unclassified version in January 1993 as a "posterity document." While this revision may have been less offen- sive, its message was the same. American leadership, it asserted, sustains the world economy upon which global prosperity rests. By, in effect, imposing a military pro- tectorate in East Asia and Europe, America's Cold War alliances ensure "a prosperous, largely democratic, market-oriented zone of peace and prosperity that encompasses more than two-thirds of the world's economy." This made maintaining these alliances America's "most vital" foreign policy prior- ity. The central goal of Bush's foreign pol- icy, then, was to maintain the global "leadership" role that America had played for 50 years, the sine qua non of the "zone of peace and prosperity." The Swan Song of Leadership: The Gulf War To dismiss Bush as a visionless pragmatist is to misunderstand his motives in what every- one now regards as his administration's greatest foreign policy success: its handling The Vision Thing 107 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions of the Gulf crisis. That the Bush administra- tion had, at first, a tough time publicly ar- ticulating what it perceived to be the important U.S. interests at stake in the Gulf does not mean that it lacked its own under- standing of those interests, based on a com- prehensive view of America's role as the guarantor of international economic and po- litical stability. Aspects of the Gulf crisis were influenced by post- Cold War develop- ments: with the Soviet Union no longer ca- pable of exercising a restraining influence on its former clients, the United States would have to play a larger role in pacifying cer- tain regions, such as the Gulf and eastern Europe. But, as Bush recognized, the vision that dictated the need to pacify those re- gions was also irrelevant to the Soviet Un- ion's demise. Many cite Bush's logic for intervention in the Gulf as an example of his inconsis- tency. Bush's rhetoric concerning Iraq was shrill and overblown; it was, of course, ab- surd to portray Kuwait as a democratic vic- tim and to assert that the United States was involved in the Gulf, in Bush's words, "in defense of freedom." But those who sug- gested that Bush's foreign policy was incon- sistent because he ostensibly led a crusade on behalf of democracy and freedom in Op- erations Desert Storm and Just Cause while he ignored assaults on the same in China, Haiti, and Bosnia were conflating motiva- tion with justification. (Did these critics re- ally believe that, unlike every other U.S. president's, Bush's cloying justifications should have been taken at face value?) To ac- knowledge that the vision Bush professed was not the motivating force behind his pol- icy in the Gulf is not to deny that that pol- icy was nonetheless motivated by a view considerably broader than a desire for cheap gasoline at the pump.9 The vision of U.S. global leadership Bush embraced - in essence a U.S. protector- ate over the advanced capitalist states - never meant that America had to intervene anywhere and everywhere. (The notion that it does has for years been an anti-interven- tionist straw man.) Involvement in sub-Saha- ran Africa, for example, has always been optional - springing from anticommunist or other ideological or humanitarian considera- tions essentially irrelevant to the central con- cerns of U.S. global strategy - rather than obligatory. (Thus, James Baker, in speaking recently on what he believes to be the abso- lute requirement of U.S. leadership to guar- antee stability in Europe, impatiently dis- missed what he termed "second order prob- lems" like Haiti and Somalia.) While it is difficult to believe that the dictates of world leadership will ever require intensive in- volvement in, for example, Burkina Faso, the same does not - and, of course, did not - hold for, say, Vietnam, since that state is lo- cated within a region of enormous economic dynamism and potential great-power compe- tition. The logic of America's leadership strategy that dictates occasional intervention in the Third World has been determined by perceptions of how events there will affect what Henry Kissinger in 1973 called "the axis of history [that] starts in Moscow, goes to Bonn, crosses over to Washington, and then goes to Tokyo." As John McNaughton, a chief aide of Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, observed in 1966, "It takes some sophistication to see how Vietnam automatically involves our vital interests." Much misunderstanding in debates about U.S. foreign policy derives from the mistaken apprehension that American states- men are concerned primarily with threats to America's security. In fact, Washington is less driven by its globalist rhetoric than by an arcane conception of the national interest that barely touches on the question of the military defense of the country. For in- stance, while many "pragmatic" opponents of U.S. involvement in Vietnam's war ar- gued that America's security would not be endangered regardless of the outcome of the conflict, policymakers were driven by a com- plex calculus that ultimately involved con- taining America's allies as well as its com- 1 08 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions munist "enemies." In 1970, Undersecretary of State Eugene Rostow admitted that "the major concern - at least my major concern - in this miserable affair is the long-range im- pact a [U.S.] withdrawal would have on Japanese policy."10 The stakes that the Bush administation saw involved in Kuwait were similarly arcane. Bush was exhilarated by Operation Desert Shield. For a man whose conception of U.S. foreign policy rested on the belief that America's and the world's happiness and prosperity depended on maintaining U.S. global leadership, on a strategy of American preponderance, the situation in the Gulf was both crisis and opportunity. At a time when Washington's major indus- trialized allies were increasingly asserting their independence, when America's relative power was declining, and, consequently, the apparently dangerous world of multipolar international politics threatened to reasssert itself, Bush made Iraq's invasion of Kuwait the occasion for reminding the world of the need for American hegemony. Assembling and leading an international coalition of un- precedented size was a marvelous way of re- asserting the Cold War strategy of allied containment and global predominance, bet- ter known as U.S. leadership. The Gulf War was to a great extent the manifestation of the Bush administration's Defense Planning Guidances injunction that America must do nothing less than "retain the preeminent responsibility for address- ing... those wrongs which threaten not only our interests, but those of our allies or friends, or which could seriously unsettle in- ternational relations." For example, Secre- tary of State James Baker's assertion, which many found dismaying, that the United States had to counter Iraq's invasion of Ku- wait to save American jobs reflected the official (if oversimplified) opinion on the importance of Persian Gulf security to America. During the Gulf crisis, Washington as- serted that Baghdad's control of Kuwaiti oil would provoke a worldwide depression devastating to the U.S. economy. Econo- mists and critics of American policy countered that the effects of even a worst- case scenario - that is, Iraqi control of the oilfields not only of Kuwait, but of Saudi Arabia and of all the Gulf Emirates - would have cost the U.S. economy less than what America was paying in defense costs to ensure access to "cheap" Persian Gulf oil. But such criticism could not dissuade policy- makers because their real fears of the eco- nomic risks of instability in the Gulf were far more complex than their rhetoric suggested. Baker did not, in fact, greatly fear the di- rect economic effects of instability in the Gulf for the United States. While Washing- ton appreciated that the diversity of the U.S. oil supply ensured that no single coun- try could put a stranglehold on it, the Bush administration was nevertheless wary of the psychological and political effects that even a temporary oil price shock in Europe and Japan might have had on the liberal interna- tional system America had to maintain. Be- lieving that tranquility and democracy in Germany and Japan are fragile, U.S. officials have always feared that a sudden economic downturn in these states could cause a re- peat of the 1930s: recession and unemploy- ment would bring extreme nationalist forces to the fore in Germany and Japan; this in turn would intensify political tensions among the states of Europe and of East Asia; defense, foreign, and economic policies in the countries of these regions would be "re-nationalized"; and the open economic system would slam shut and the world would crash into depression. As a high- ranking State Department official argued, "no matter what, the United States has to make sure Europe remains stable. Given the political vulnerability of Europe and the fact that instability there would bring a depres- sion everywhere, we have no choice but to guarantee [Europe's] access" to Persian Gulf oil. The Vision Thing 109 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions At the same time, consistent with the ad- ministration's leadership strategy, America could never allow these countries to protect their own interests in the Gulf - that is, de- velop naval, air, and ground forces capable of global "power projection" - since such ac- tions would lead to the nightmare scenario in which, when the United States no longer keeps Europe and Japan on a tight political and miltiary leash, the world of power poli- tics returns. The problem, which reflected the increasing constraints on Bush's global strategy, was that the president's insistence that the allies he was containing pay the cost of the means of their containment showed that leadership was no longer a com- modity America could afford. The process leading to the war against Iraq is now seen as fixed in stone. When we look back, America's response to Iraq's aggression seems a foregone conclusion. In fact, America leading an international coalition into battle, forcibly expelling Iraqi forces from Kuwait, and rendering impotent Iraq's military threat to its neigh- bors was far from the most likely scenario. Bush correctly saw the Gulf crisis as a test case of America's ability and willingness to continue playing its leadership role. The continuation of that role was, for Bush, the most important issue at stake; it was, however, far from clear that the world would fall in line or, more important, that Americans would care to carry on with a 50-year-old role that had now exhausted them. Immediately following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, only 38 percent of the U.S. public favored the use of American military force to eject the Iraqis. While popular support for intervention increased as the crisis continued, the public was always qualified in its approval of intervention, pre- ferring even the most unrealistic options that ostensibly offered an honorable resolu- tion to the president's consistently tough line. Political opinion was even more am- bivalent - on the eve of the U.S. air war against Iraq, the Senate resolution support- ing the American use of force passed by a mere two votes. Bush deserves credit for taking a princi- pled and politically courageous stand in the name of a foreign policy vision in which he believed. Moreover, his critics - with the ex- ception of equally principled pacifists and isolationists - shared his vision. Their con- ception of a world order, no less than Bush's, was inconsistent with permitting Iraq's aggression to stand. Unlike Bush, however, they refused to bite the bullet. It is inconceivable that economic sanctions, their policy alternative, could have dislodged Iraqi troops from Kuwait. (And the admini- stration's argument that a long period of sanctions without war could have led to the unraveling of the unwieldy coalition, while not irrefutable, was nonetheless strong; given the stakes involved, dragging out the crisis posed unnecessary risks.) At best, Sad- dam Hussein might have negotiated a par- tial retreat that would have left his power and prestige intact, an outcome that was equally unacceptable to Bush and to his Democratic and other critics. Bush and his advisers recognized very early in the crisis what many of his critics only now acknowledge: American interests, as nearly universally defined, could only be assured by forcibly expelling Saddam Hussein's forces from Kuwait. (The Bush ad- ministration, in fact, carefully maneuvered U.S. opinion and diplomatic events to en- sure this outcome.) While Bush's critics shared with the president the belief that America must continue to "exercise leader- ship" by depriving Saddam Hussein of the fruits of his aggression, Bush, unlike his crit- ics, squarely faced the requirements and po- tential costs of that leadership. Near the end of the Bush administra- tion, foreign policy analyst Terry Diebel wrote that a sucessfiil American foreign pol- icy strategy required a firm sense of priorities... [and] an abil- ity to concentrate the government upon 1 1 0 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions them.... There must be a kind of fore- sight, an unforgiving sense of the con- nection between today's actions and the nation's position, not just in the next year or two, but in the next decade and beyond. Across all these areas, there must be a capacity for bold leadership and an ability and willingness to con- vince the country to sacrifice and take risks.11 The Bush foreign policy, Diebel concluded, failed to display these qualities, a verdict many experts shared. But in the Gulf crisis, the defining moment of his presidency, these were precisely the qualities Bush displayed, as he translated his vision of American leadership, which, to him, was synonymous with the long-term interests of the United States and the world at large, into a set of specific - and intricate - diplo- matic and military policies. Leadership Hits a Stumbling Block: Moscow Bush was undoubtably guilty of caution, prudence, and, indeed, passivity, in his ap- proach toward the collapse of the Soviet em- pire; but that approach - which amounted to following Dean Acheson's maxim, "Don't just do something, stand there" - is the as- pect of his presidency of which Bush should feel most proud. Just as the direction U.S. policy took during the Gulf crisis was not a foregone conclusion, neither was the Soviet Union's bloodless and smooth relinquish- ment of Eastern Europe. That this process - which perforce involved the very passions and insecurities that had made Moscow's stranglehold on Eastern Europe so intracta- ble and the U.S.-Soviet rivalry on the Conti- nent so dangerous - had such a happy outcome is in no small measure thanks to George Bush. In response to what was the fi- nal crisis of the Cold War and the most im- portant series of international events of the second half of this century, Bush, true to his best self, offered not shrill exaltation, but circumspection. At the time, some of the more ideologi- cally driven conservatives were frustrated by the president's lack of public enthusiasm re- garding the 1989 revolutions and lack of public support for the revolutionaries. (Rea- gan administration assistant secretary of state Elliott Abrams, for instance, wrote of Bush's behavior that "altogether lacking was an effort to make the end of the cold war a great victory for freedom. Mr. Bush sug- gested that we not gloat at the Soviet col- lapse when gloating and rejoicing were just what the country, and the Bush campaign, needed.")12 But by eschewing an activist pol- icy and sedulously avoiding embarrassing, threatening, or otherwise provoking Mos- cow, Bush helped provide the necessary con- dition for those revolutions: Moscow's willingness to tolerate them. Gorbachev was clearly the towering figure in these events, but Bush was his invaluable silent partner. Such farsightedness seemed unlikely at the start of Bush's term, and his critics are justified in their charge that his administra- tion was at first unable or unwilling to grasp the magnitude of the changes in Mos- cow's thinking. Bush came to the presi- dency believing that his predecessor, while at first too bellicose toward Moscow, had, in his last years in office, become somewhat im- prudent in his relations with Gorbachev. Cooling the ardor and slowing the tempo of relations with Moscow, the Bush administra- tion undertook a months-long strategic re- view of U.S.-Soviet relations. During this time, the administration was guarded and noncommittal in its attitude toward Mos- cow, failing to respond to a number of sub- stantive Soviet initiatives. To his critics, this was evidence of Bush's lack of leadership and vision. But while Bush's initial ap- proach was inappropriate, it resulted in op- portunities delayed, not squandered. By the time the Malta Summit was announced in October 1989, Bush was on the course he would follow to the end of his presidency: engaging the leadership in Moscow with a vengeance, a course that culminated in The Vision Thing * 1 1 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions START II, the most sweeping arms control agreement in history. Initially faulted for his too-cool response to Gorbachev, Bush was soon criticized for embracing the Soviet leader too rapturously, at the expense of relations with Boris Yelt- sin, and was later criticized for "betting everything" on the latter, at the expense of relations with the other former Soviet repub- lics. (Similar criticism is now leveled at Clin- ton.) But, given the fluid situation with which Bush was (and Clinton is) confronted in Russia, in which America is unable to control the internal political and social forces at work, betting on the wrong horse is a distinct - and unavoidable - possibility. In this situation it would seem reason- able (unless attempting a provocative, and unwise, encirclement strategy) to give prior- ity to relations with the most powerful and important of the former Soviet republics, since it possesses the greatest means of threatening U.S. security, and, as diplo- matic convention warrants, to give priority to relations with the existing head of state, as Bush did. After all, despite the fears of squandering good relations with Yeltsin by sticking with Gorbachev, when Yeltsin be- came (de jure and de facto) the man with whom to deal, he and Bush, out of mutual interest, soon achieved a highly effective rapport. Other criticisms of the Bush administra- tion's policy toward the Soviet Union and its successor states also seem either inconsis- tent or excessively harsh. For instance, many U.S. foreign policy observers, using a logic that the Bush administration shared, argued that Washington had to provide massive economic aid to the Soviet Union to forestall the economic and social chaos that they be- lieved would otherwise break out there. Such chaos, they maintained, might bring nationalist-extremist forces to the fore, en- gendering a situation they feared would pose a grave security threat to America. But many of those same observers criti- cized what they held to be the Bush admini- stration's overly cautious attitude toward in- ternal developments in the crumbling So- viet Union. They pointed to such evidence as the president's refusal to impose eco- nomic sanctions against the Soviets in re- sponse to their crackdown against the independence-seeking Baltic states; to his unwillingness to press the Soviet leader too hard when Gorbachev slowed down eco- nomic reform and brought some old-style Communists back into his government; and to his discouragement of separatist forces in the republics. (Bush's stance on these issues was, of course, similar to his refusal to pun- ish China harshly following the Tiananmen Square massacre and betrayed his emphasis on maintaining good working relations with the great powers over pursuing ideological concerns.) However, the American interfer- ence in Soviet - and, later, Russian - domes- tic affairs, which these critics advocated, would seem more likely to have led to the emergence of fascist/nationalist forces (most U.S. foreign policy observers use the two terms interchangeably) hostile to the United States than would the niggardly U.S. eco- nomic policy toward the Soviet Union that they bemoaned. (Imagine for a moment how Americans - and not just ultranationalist Americans - would react if they, defeated in the Cold War, were met with a Soviet Un- ion encouraging separatist elements here and irredentist sentiment in Mexico. It would be hoped that reasonable elements in Moscow would argue that the United States was still a great power and that it is danger- ous to kick such a power, especially a nu- clear-armed one, when it is down.) That Bush thought it more important to avoid destabilizing, frightening, or provok- ing Moscow than to pursue the cause of self- determination or to champion American ideology is not to say that he was a calculat- ing practitioner of realpolitik. He believed, no less than his somewhat more expansive critics, that the United States had the oppor- tunity to reintegrate a reformed Soviet Un- ion/Russia into the world community. This 112 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions rather paternalistic vision dictated a new partnership, albeit one in which the junior partner - Moscow - would increasingly accept the preferences, and the economic and political beliefs, of the senior partner - Washington. This vision, as well as the "Weimar Rus- sia" argument favored especially by Na- tional Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, necessitated an ambitious program of eco- nomic and technical aid, as well as the even more far-reaching assistance efforts proposed in the administration's "Freedom Support" legislation. The purpose of such efforts was not only to forestall immediate economic disaster in Russia and its presumed political consequences, but, in the long term, to con- vert Russia into a polity in which those feared political consequences - anti-West- ern, anticapitalist, antidemocratic senti- ments - would not take root. At the time, this proposed U.S. role in transforming a totalitarian system and ma- jor central command economy was often characterized as a "new Marshall Plan"; however, Bush and his advisers took as their model not so much the effort designed to help restore the economies of capitalist, democratic Western Europe, but the far broader and deeper role the United States had played in postwar Germany and Japan, a project designed to impose democracy on previously hostile terrain. This latter effort, of course, had required not merely doling out assistance funds and providing technical training, but occupation and di- rect rule. Clearly, Bush had enormous aspirations regarding U.S. policy toward the former So- viet Union. These aspirations were shared by the entire foreign policy community - not since the beginning of U.S. involvement in Vietnam had that community reached such a consensus on the need for the United States to undertake a massive foreign policy effort (even if there was no consensus on how, precisely, to go about the effort). It united "responsible" Democrats and Repub- licans (Bush's opponent Bill Clinton and for- mer president Richard Nixon, for instance), who knew that anyone who knew anything would agree with them. All looked on with dismay as the public failed to grasp the world historic significance of the issue, and (consequently) the apparently necessary ef- fort failed to be undertaken then or sub- sequently. The gap between the policy dictated by a vision of U.S. global leader- ship and the means available to pursue that vision frustrated the experts (as it must have frustrated Bush and his team), and they re- sponded by blaming the president for fail- ing to provide the leadership needed to rally public support. Bush, in the end, did not put his politi- cal weight behind the "Freedom Support" bill, but it was clear that Congress would not act on it and, to Bush, with his eyes on the polls, it was equally clear that the electorate was hostile to aid at anything near the levels that the experts deemed necessary. Critics like to cite the Truman ex- ample, pointing out that, on the question of the Marshall Plan, the president was years ahead of public opinion and yet coura- geously took the political heat. In lauding Truman's role in mustering support for the Marshall Plan, however, Bush's (and Clin- ton's) critics fail to consider that, in pressing for that internationalist project, Truman could invoke - or create - a living, breath- ing enemy, not just a potential one, which, as Senator Vandenberg understood, made all the difference. Bush wanted to pursue an activist course in the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe. But, as with other issues dear to the president and other internationalists, he found - as would Clinton - that the weari- ness of a post-Cold War American public, the growing reluctance of post- Cold War al- lies to follow U.S. leadership, and the limits of American power and resources in an in- creasingly recalcitrant world, had made America's global burden more and more dif- ficult to take up. The Vision Thing 113 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Preserving Leadership: NATO and the German Question The Bush foreign policy vision held that, aside from the direct physical security of the United States, America's most essential for- eign policy objective was perpetuating the liberal international economic and political order that America and the advanced indus- trialized states had enjoyed for 50 years. American leadership was the key to this pro- ject. Consequently, all foreign policy efforts were subsumed by the imperative to main- tain that U.S. leadership and the chief in- struments of that position - America's Cold War alliances with Western Europe and Ja- pan. A high-ranking Pentagon official en- capsulated the fears that drove the admin- istration's thinking on this issue. Arguing for the vital importance of preserving those alliances, he asked, "If we pull out, who knows what nervousness will result?" Fol- lowing this logic, since America could never know, it would always have to stay. Bush, the first post-Cold War president, faced a unique challenge: he had to ensure that America would stay even after the raison d'etre of those alliances, as understood by the public, had disintegrated. One solution was to keep that raison d'etre alive by portraying the Soviet Union as a threat for as long as possible. While at first Bush and his entire foreign policy team voiced suspicion of Moscow's intentions, as relations with the Soviet Union warmed, this task fell mainly on Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, who, it seemed, reminded any- one who would listen that the Soviet mili- tary remained a formidable adversary, even as that force was unable to pay its soldiers. But by 1990, the Atlantic idea itself was increasingly under assault. France, long bri- dling under American European leadership, argued that, with the demise of the Soviet threat, the U.S. role in Europe should be substantially diminished and, in fact, that all American forces should leave the Conti- nent by the century's end. Germany, too, was showing disquieting signs of an inde- pendent spirit, reaching agreement with Moscow over the timing and tactics of reuni- fication without consulting its senior part- ner and aligning itself with the French in support of two proposals to create European defense forces independent of NATO. These moves dismayed the Bush administration, which sincerely believed - as had every ad- ministration since the 1940s - that if the West Europeans didn't want American lead- ership, they didn't know what was good for them, since Europe on its own would ulti- mately lapse into that same old bad habit that NATO had prevented: power politics. Bush made this case at the 1991 NATO Summit, arguing that the alliance guarded against "uncertainty and unpredictability" on the Continent, that it therefore did "not need a Soviet military to hold it together," and, finally, stating flatly that it could not be replaced "even in the long run." (Similar arguments were made at the time regarding the U.S. role in Northeast Asia, with Bush's assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Richard Solomon, maintain- ing that "were the Soviet presence to disap- pear tomorrow, in the emerging security environment, our role as regional balancer and honest broker would, if anything, be more important than ever.") Far more impor- tant than its words, however, were the ad- ministration's deeds on behalf of U.S. leadership in Europe. In dealing with the breakup of the So- viet Union's Eastern European empire, Bush departed from his passive role only to ad- dress two issues, issues that were central to maintaining his conception of U.S. global hegemony. During the turbulent year of 1990, the president never lost sight of two interrelated objectives: to ensure that NATO - the primary means of U.S. prepon- derance and, hence, allied containment - survived in a post-Cold War Europe, and to ensure that a reunified Germany would be enfolded in the alliance. (Most contempo- rary and retrospective accounts discuss Bush's aim of ensuring that a reunified Ger- 114 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions many "remain" in NATO. That verb, how- ever, is misleading. East Germany was in the Warsaw Pact and West Germany was in NATO, so a reunified Germany would have to be brought into NATO, not "remain" there, since it was never there to begin with.) In pursuit of these objectives, Bush and Baker proved remarkably skillful diplomats, since as the Cold War wound down, attain- ing the second objective, and hence the first, was by no means assured. Although George Kennan and Walter Lippmann had long ago envisioned a possible end to the Soviet occu- pation of Eastern Europe, they could not imagine that this would not require a mu- tual superpower disengagement or, at the very least, the neutralization of Germany. Of course, neither Lippmann nor Kennan foresaw a Soviet leader like Gorbachev or anything like the events that occured in 1989-90. However, their belief that no So- viet state would ever allow a reunified Ger- many to become a member of NATO seemed correct as late as February 1990, when Gor- bachev and Soviet spokesmen asserted strenuously that while a reunified Ger- many - ominous enough in political and economic terms - might be inevitable, it would have to be a neutral state, for if it were to become a member of the alliance, it would upset the East- West strategic bal- ance, threatening Soviet security. (Russia makes much the same argument today re- garding the prospect of NATO's further ab- sorption of the states to Germany's east.) Bush and Baker spent the next six months wheedling, cajoling, and appeasing the Soviets into accepting German member- ship in NATO. Since maintaining the instru- ment of U.S. predominance in Europe was their first priority, they were eager to con- vince Moscow that it was safe to make this major concession; this, in part, explains their hands-off and conciliatory approach to- ward the Soviets on all other issues. This process culminated in the July 1990 London Declaration, in which the president, to help Gorbachev accept Germany's unification within NATO, convinced the North Atlantic Council to reassure Moscow by announcing to the Warsaw Pact that "we are no longer adversaries." Since the alliance was no longer directed against the Soviets, the dec- laration pledged a major revision of NATO military stategy, including a much-reduced reliance on nuclear weapons. With the way thus paved, West German chancellor Helmut Kohl and Gorbachev worked out the agreement on German reunification two weeks later. While much was made of Kohl's diplo- matic victory, few observers properly cred- ited Bush for his foreign policy design. As historian Timothy Ireland concludes in his account of the origins of NATO, since the 1940s the underlying purpose of American leadership in Europe had been "to prevent German domination by securely binding the Federal Republic to larger European and Atlantic frameworks."13 These constraints, however, were in danger of corroding in 1989-90 because of the collapse of the Cold War order in Europe. Out of this fluid situ- ation, Bush and Baker ensured the continu- ation of Washington's enduring goal of enmeshing Germany and thus, they hoped, ensured the perpetuation of the Pax Ameri- cana on the Continent. Lessons of Leadership: Yugoslavia Shortly after this successful effort to main- tain the requirements of American hegem- ony in Europe, however, came the Bush administration's failure to address the poten- tial threat to the Pax Americana that arose from the fighting in the former Yugoslavia. In its policy there, the Bush administration apparently failed in an endeavor that was central to its vision. In its inability or un- willingness to provide leadership, the Bush administration seemingly damaged NATO's role as the guarantor of stability in Europe. It failed in its avowed objective to remain preeminently responsible for addressing those wrongs that threatened not only U.S. interests, but those of its allies, or those The Vision Thing 115 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions wrongs that could destabilize international relations. What could account for this failure? To be sure, given the assumptions underpin- ning U.S. policy, the fighting in the former Yugoslavia is, apparently, "the problem from hell," as Secretary of State Warren Christopher has described it. This would be true for any administration. While some Democrats blame the situation there on some gross mishandling on Bush's part (just as some former Bush officials claim that the mess is now somehow attributable to Clin- ton's flip-flops), the truth is that (assuming either administration would have otherwise chosen to intervene) most of the same con- straints that now hem in the Clinton ad- ministration also hemmed in the Bush administration: the many pitfalls involved in any military intervention, which are mul- tiplied by intervention in a civil war; con- testants in a war who, regardless of where the guilt primarily lies, are equally uninter- ested in compromise, leaving precious little room for Western "peacemaking"; an under- standable concern about Russia's reaction to NATO intervention; allies who drag their feet; and - perhaps most important - a very reluctant U.S. public that is not privy to the reasoning that purports to explain how tur- moil in the Balkans relates to its own pros- perity or security. (Rather than snipe at one another, Republican and Democratic policy- makers might offer one another some sympa- thy, especially since no one else will.) Still, the Bush administration's policy toward the former Yugoslavia is bewilder- ing. Perhaps, since the fighting was con- fined within the borders of what was once a single state, the administration did not see it as a threat to European stability. U.S. interests, according to this view, dictated that the fighting be quarantined, rather than stanched. Thus, Bush's Christmas 1992 warning to Serbia, which clearly threatened a unilateral U.S. military re- sponse against that state in the event of its intervening in Kosovo - a Serbian action that was widely believed could provoke a "wider Balkan war" - was perhaps all that was considered necessary to prevent a series of events that could endanger U.S. leader- ship in Europe. Clinton, of course, has reiter- ated Bush's Kosovo policy and, consisent with that policy, sent a U.S. brigade to Macedonia to forestall war among Mace- donia's neighbors. Bush's "failed" Yugoslav policy might also be interpreted as a success according to his vision, but this would almost certainly credit the administration with far too much subtlety - and cynicism. In 1991, Bush's At- lantic vision, as discussed above, was under attack by an increasingly self-assertive west- ern Europe. As a part of their effort to di- vorce themselves from NATO domination, France and West Germany were keen for the European Community, not NATO, to take the lead in handling the Yugoslav crisis. Throughout the fall and spring of 1991, the United States had been actively involved in attempting to hold the Yugoslav Federation together. With the failure of Baker's mis- sion to Belgrade in June 1991, however, the United States knew that fighting, which would break out the following week, was in- evitable. It also knew that the disintegration of Yugoslavia would be extraordinarily vio- lent, given the long-simmering hatreds and the availability of weapons there, and that the contestants would be unamenable to compromise. (Indeed, this is why Washing- ton had worked so hard to avoid a breakup.) At this point, the Bush administration quite explicitly signaled that it was pre- pared to let the Europeans do what they had said they always wanted to do - handle their own problem. Perhaps falling into the trap, Luxembourg's foreign minister, speaking for the European Community, hailed the oppor- tunity as "the hour of Europe." The results of the European Community's peace efforts were disastrous. Later, Germany attempted a solution to the Yugoslav crisis by recogniz- ing Croatia and Slovenia. Its European part- ners were somewhat reluctant to follow this 116 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions course, but, having just signed the Maas- tricht Treaty, they were eager to engage in a common European endeavor. Washington seemed just as eager to see such an endeavor fail. "It was European unity time," Baker re- called in disgust, "a lot of confidence in Europe that they could and should take care of matters on their own doorstep." Ger- many's actions were clearly hubristic and ill- considered, and Washington protested, but not too strenuously, no doubt confident that the sad results of Europe taking care of mat- ters on its doorstep would soon be obvious, as indeed they were. It was no suprise that the French and Germans failed throughout the crisis in the former Yugoslavia, having been discouraged by Washington for decades from building the very kind of independent West Euro- pean political and defense systems that they now needed. (It was rather hypocritical of the Bush administration to "welcome" Euro- pean leadership in handling the crisis in the former Yugoslavia while it squelched the proposed West European Union rapid reac- tion force and the "Eurocorps," which would have made that leadership possible.) Western Europe's failure, however, was a gain (whether deliberate or not) for the American leadership - and European infan- tilization - so desired by the Bush admini- stration. That failure reminded Europe and the United States that "Europeans, left to themselves, tend to mismanage European se- curity," as David Gompert, Bush's former National Security Council chief for Europe, argues, revealing his contempt for America's "partners."14 Bush and his foreign policy offi- cials, during and after his presidency, have used the fighting in the former Yugoslavia as a negative lesson and the Gulf War as a positive lesson, illustrating the point made by Dick Cheney last year: it is a "myth," he asserted, that "other nations can take over the United States' traditional role in global security.... There isn't anybody else to do it." Although Cheney, who has emerged as the Republicans' foreign policy attack dog, would deny it, the Clinton administration has come around to his point of view on American leadership. During the presiden- tial campaign, candidate Clinton excoriated the Bush administration for what he charac- terized as Bush's timid, pragmatic approach to international affairs and advocated the sweeping internationalist foreign policy agenda traditionally associated with Ameri- can leadership.15 Clinton, however, also called for a multilateralist foreign policy, which would essentially require abandoning American unilateralism and closely tying U.S. foreign policy to the United Nations. Clinton, of course, has spent his first 18 months in office backing away from his more ambitious foreign policy goals. He has also learned that even his more modest goals are impossible to achieve without the United States taking the lead. A truly multi- lateralist foreign policy means abandoning a vision of world politics that can only be real- ized through the exercise of U.S. leadership. As the president has steadily retreated from his earlier multilateralist sentiments to the safe and familiar ground of American he- gemony, he has begun to sound very much like George Bush on Kuwait, asserting that "we are the only superpower. We must lead the world." Can America head? There was something at once poignant and obtuse in Baker's recent comment that, be- cause President Clinton's foreign policy lacked consistency and firmness, "for the first time since the Second World War, Ja- pan is not delivering an automatic vote for the U.S. position." Sticking his head into the sand while reciting his mantra, the for- mer secretary of state and probable future presidential candidate claimed that such problems could be obviated "as long as America leads.... We have to lead." Japan's actions are certainly related to a decline in American leadership, but that decline isn't The Vision Thing 117 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions due to what Baker would characterize as Clinton's weak foreign policy. That policy is a reflection, not the cause, of the decline. America, no matter who is in charge of its foreign policy, is less and less able to "lead." Baker seems to have forgotten that America's leadership in the Gulf War was only possible because its allies agreed to pay the tab. It is no surprise that given such "leadership," once subservient partners are increasingly going their own way. Prepon- derance cannot simply be asserted; it must reflect a position based on power. When that position shifts enough, preponderance - leadership - is, by definition, lost. Some foreign policy observers, aware of the international political consequences of America's relative economic decline, have re- cently shed their traditional indifference to domestic affairs. If the United States is to lead abroad, they say, it must get its eco- nomic house in order; encapsulating the prism through which they view economic is- sues, Michael Mandelbaum of the Council on Foreign Relations explains that "deficits reduce America's capacity to lead."16 While there are surely many things the United States should do to repair its economy, these sensible actions won't permit America to re- gain the predominant position that had al- lowed it to exercise international leadership. The problems are structural. The Pax Americana depended upon America's massive strength in the decades following the Second World War. But his- tory affords no more remarkable reversal of fortune in a relatively short period of time than the erosion of American hegemony in the late twentieth century. "Decline" is rarely absolute - a hegemon does not be- come poorer or weaker than it was before its rise to preponderance. Instead, decline is relative, in that a hegemon is overtaken by challengers who rise faster or further. While the United States has accelerated its fall (most notably by an astonishing rise in do- mestic consumption relative to savings and investment), the worldwide economic sys- tem that America has protected and fostered has, itself, largely determined the country's relative decline - and therefore its decreas- ing ability to manage the world - even as it has contributed to its prosperity. The problem with economic interde- pendence is that it has worked all too well. Through trade, foreign investment, and the spread of technology and managerial exper- tise, economic power has diffused from the United States to new centers of growth. With a shift in the international distribu- tion of economic strength, American hegem- ony, perforce, has been undermined. Thus, a global economy bites the hegemon that feeds it, for economic interdependence, which depends upon the stability the hegemon provides, disperses power and thereby eventually destroys the hegemon's relative dominance. As America's relative decline continues, as its leadership becomes more and more tenuous, it is important to remember that the architects of the American Century did not pursue leadership as an end in itself, but for the international conditions it en- gendered. Bush and Clinton both recognize this, as do, perhaps less explicitly, nearly all their critics within the foreign policy establishment who share their vision of a stable, international capitalist order in which the community of advanced indus- trialized countries is free of the economic, political, and military manifestations of power politics. These pundits believe, no less than do America's two post-Cold War presidents, that despite the end of the Cold War, Amer- ica must play a leadership role to reassure al- lies and their neighbors, to prevent power vacuums, and in other ways to shape a favor- able strategic environment. The foreign pol- icy visions that these critics say are needed for a post- Cold War America are thus new in name only, for those visions seek the same goals, and even employ the same in- struments, that have characterized American foreign policy for nearly half a century. 118 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Bush, Clinton, and their establishment critics, then, all essentially believe that America is holding the wolf of interna- tional politics by the ears; if America were to let go, if it were to relinquish its hege- monic role, the order among the capitalist powers would shatter, with disastrous conse- quences. But given the inevitable decline in America's hegemonic capabilities, a decline already well under way, the strategy of pre- ponderance, or leadership, is in fact not a strategy at all, since it is dedicated to sus- taining the unsustainable. Most who call themselves "multilateral- ists" ultimately hold to Bush's vision; when push comes to shove, they fall back on the need for U.S. leadership to foster and pro- tect an international environment conducive to the liberal economic and political values they prize. Very few American foreign pol- icy thinkers actually embrace a trilateralist vision in which the United States does not form the apex. (Thus, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the guru of the Trilateral Commission, calls for Washington to develop "a more coopera- tive partnership" with Tokyo, even as he asserts that America must continue to domi- nate Japan on security matters.) American multilateralists really fudge the question of hegemony and stability. They optimistically hold that America can reap the reward of leadership - world or- der - without incurring the costs and risks of leadership. According to this argument, America can lead, but only in partnership with other like-minded states. This oxymo- ron seems suspiciously like an Orwellian for- mula advocating the maintenance of U.S. preponderance. But to the extent to which it is an honest alternative, it fails to take se- riously the logic that has dictated American strategy since the late 1940s. The driving force behind U.S. security policy is the perceived need to ensure global order by exercising hegemony in regions composed of wealthy and technologically so- phisticated states and to take care of such nuisances as Saddam Hussein, Kim II Sung, and Slobodan Milosevic, so that potential great powers need not acquire the means to take care of those problems themselves. Thus, "shaping the strategic environment," to use post- Cold War Pentagon jargon, re- quires today, as it has for the past 45 years, maintaining the ability to deploy large and technologically advanced U.S. forces. Amer- ica must convince others not only that it is committed to the security of their regions, but that it is capable of acting on that com- mitment. In defense, you get what you pay for, and America's "adult supervision" strat- egy means that - if it is lucky - it must pay forever. In short, stabilizing the international system is an exhausting proposition. While retrenchment from these positions may seem economically attractive, it would, fol- lowing the logic of American security strat- egy, carry enormous risks. "The United States, as a great power, has essentially taken on the task of sustaining the world or- der," former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger concisely explained. "And any abandonment of major commitments is diffi- cult to reconcile with that task." Pericles, ad- dressing downhearted Athenians in the midst of the Peloponnesian War, put it more simply: "You cannot decline the bur- dens of empire and still expect to share its honors." The liberal foreign policy commentator Walter Russell Mead, who in the past has called for the diminution of America's com- mitments abroad, has advocated that the United States pursue a cooperative, rather than a dominant, relationship with its allies. But Mead seems to have learned Pericles' lesson. Reflecting on the dilemma of Ameri- can security policy, he is unable to reconcile America's need to lighten its international burdens with his recognition of the danger- ous economic and political consequences of America abdicating its leadership role. The United States, Mead asserts, cannot even allow its "partners" to assume primary re- sponsibility for quelling the instability The Vision Thing H9 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions that, after all, most affects them. Main- taining that a "closed Europe is a gun pointed at America's head," Mead argues that: In a well-intentioned effort to stabilize Eastern Europe, Western Europe, led by Germany, could establish something like Napoleon's projected Continental System. Eastern Europe and North Af- rica would supply the raw materials, cer- tain agricultural products, and low-wage industrial labor. Western Europe would provide capital and host the high-value- added and high-tech industries.... A Europe of this kind would inevitably put most of its capital into its own back- yard, and it would close its markets to competitors from the rest of the world. It would produce its VCRs in Poland, not China; it would buy its wheat from Ukraine, rather than the Dakotas.17 Since the actions Washington's allies would take to forestall instability in the absence of American leadership would apparently lead to U.S. economic disaster, it seems that the United States must forever remain - in Bush's words - the world's "sole super- power." Mead seems to acknowledge, as Bush al- ways knew, that multilateral enterprises, from juries to U.N. police actions, require a leader. It would seem that the indispen- sable foundation of cooperation and integra- tion in the Western security and economic systems was - and remains - American hegemony. The rather strident assertions of every American president since Truman of the need for American preeminence in European security affairs, for instance, stem less from an overbearing chauvinism than from a realization that, as Acheson wrote in 1952, arguing for the necessity of the NATO alliance, "unity in Europe requires the con- tinuing leadership of the United States; without it [western] Europe would split apart." To hold that America can safely relin- quish its preponderant role because the po- litical, economic, and military cooperation among the great powers now ensures stabil- ity and peace is to put the cart before the horse. Stability in western Europe and East Asia, guaranteed by American hegemony, was the precondition for cooperation, not vice versa. There is little reason to believe that, without this guarantor, stability will take on a life of its own. "To look," as Alex- ander Hamilton warned, "for a continuation of harmony between a number of inde- pendent and unconnected sovereignties, situ- ated in the same neighborhood, would be to disregard the uniform course of human events and to set at defiance the accumu- lated experience of the ages." The multilater- alist solution seems, in the end, no more realistic than Bush's. George Bush and his advisers were mired in a Cold War vision, committed to maintaining the fundamental means and ends of U.S. foreign policy that have existed for nearly half a century. Their frantic asser- tions of America's continued ability to lead increasingly wayward allies and an increas- ingly multipolar world resemble nothing so much as Gatsby's willfully blind protesta- tion: "Can't repeat the past? Why of course you can!" But those who hold that the reali- zation of that vision - the cooperative world order - will somehow outlast the declining American "leadership" that Bush and Clin- ton have striven to maintain are, it seems, just as blind.
Notes 1. Terry Diebel, "Bush's Foreign Policy," For- eign Policy, no. 84 (Fall 1991), p. 9. 2. Stanley Hoffmann, "Bush Abroad," New York Review of Books, November 5, 1992, pp. 58-59. 3. Leon V. Sigal, "The Last Cold War Elec- tion," Foreign Affairs 71 (Winter 1992/93), pp. 3-4. 4. Ronald Robinson and John Gallagher, with Alice Denny, Africa and the Victorians (New York: St. Martin's, 1961), p. 466. 5. Ibid., p. 288. 120 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 6. Christopher Lasch, The True and Only Heaven: Progress and Its Critics (New York: Norton, 1991), p. 121. 7. Alberto Coll, "America as the Grand Fa- cilitator," Foreign Policy, no. 87 (Summer 1992), p. 64. 8. Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz, "American Hegemony - Without an Enemy," For- eign Policy, no. 92 (Fall 1993), p. 10. 9. In one important respect, Bush's policy to- ward Iraq was inconsistent - it is clear that the Bush administration's signals to Saddam Hussein before the invasion were ambiguous - but this was out of understandable fear of Iran. Before August 1990, expert opinion was unanimous that Iran, not Iraq, posed the greater threat to U.S. interests in the Gulf and beyond; a tilt toward Iraq in an effort to contain Iran was, so the thinking ran, entirely sensible. 10. William Whitworth, Naive Questions About War and Peace (New York: Norton, 1970), pp. 36-39. 11. Diebel, "Bush's Foreign Policy," p. 9- 12. Elliott Abrams, "Goodbye to the New World Order: The Real Failures of the Bush For- eign Policy," National Review, November 30, 1992, p. 45. 13. Timothy Ireland, Creating the Entangling Al- liance: The Origins of NATO (Westport, CT: Green- wood, 1981), p. 228. 14. David Gompert, "How to Defeat Serbia," Foreign Affairs 73 (July/August 1994), pp. 30-47. Gompert's sentiment echoes Kissinger's 1974 re- mark that "Europe's misuse of power was the foun- dation of America's responsibility to keep the peace." 15. See Benjamin Schwarz, "Morality Is No Mantra," New York Times, November 28, 1992, for a discussion of Clinton's foreign policy views before he assumed office. 16. Michael Mandelbaum, "The Bush Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs 70 (America and the World 1990/91), p. 19. 17. Walter Russell Mead, "An American Grand Strategy," World Policy Journal 10 (Spring 1993), p. 21. The Vision Thing 121 This content downloaded from 107.212.213.167 on Fri, 30 May 2014 16:21:46 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions