MT S VN V NI DUNG V PHNG PHP D BO

NHU CU SN BAY PHC V CNG TC

TM KIM CU NN VIT NAM

TS. L VN CHM
B mn ng b
Khoa Cng trnh
Trng i hc Giao thng Vn ti

Tm tt: Hin nay trn th gii c nhiu phng php d bo quy hoch h thng cng hng
khng dn dng, nhng vic quy hoch sn bay tm kim cu nn chng ta vn cha c c c s
khoa hc gii quyt vn trn. Bi vit ny cp n mt s vn v ni dung v phng
php d bo nhu cu sn bay phc v cng tc tm kim cu nn Vit Nam.
Summary: In the world nowadays, there are many predicting methods of planning the civil
airport system, but such planning for rescue and retrieval activities is not based on any scientific
basis. Some issues on the contents and methods of predicting the demand for airports in such
circumstances will be mentioned in this article.
I. T VN
Qua nhiu thi k chng ta c mt s
n, mt s quy hoch lin quan n vic
pht trin mng li cm cng hng khng
dn dng nhng h thng sn bay phc v cho
cng tc tm kim cu nn (TKCN) vn cha
c c quy hoch ph hp.
Tc gi ang tham gia mt nhnh ti
xc nh c s khoa hc v thc tin gp
phn quy hoch h thng sy bay cho cng tc
tm kim cu nn Vit Nam
Trong khun kh bi vit ny tc gi
xut mt s phng php d bo nhu cu sn
bay phc v cng tc tm kim cu nn m
chng ta c th p dng
II. NI DUNG
Ngy 28/02/2006 Th tng k Quyt
nh 46/2006/Q-TTg, ph duyt n Quy
hoch tng th lnh vc tm kim cu nn n
nm 2015, tm nhn n nm 2020.
lm tt cng tc d bo nhu cu sn
bay tm kim cu nn, phi xut pht t tnh
hnh din bin thin tai, thm ha, cc tai nn
(gi chung l tai nn) xy ra trn lnh th.
Khng ging vic xc nh nhu cu sn
bay dn dng l chng ta phi xut pht t
nhu cu vn chuyn hnh khch, hng ha
gia cc khu vc, vng lnh th.
Trong cng tc tm kim cu nn cn
iu tra bit c s tai nn, din bin tai
nn hoc xc sut xy ra tai nn theo a hnh
khu vc: Vng ni cao him tr, vng bin,
hi o, vng trung du hoc ng bng chu
th.
Phn loi tai nn ni chung v xc nh
quy m, mc , loi tai nn, thi im xy ra
tai nn, din bin v hu qu ca cc tai nn
xy ra.
Kh nng h tr ca cc phng tin vn


ti khc: Bng ng b, ng st, ng
thy c bit ch nhng tai nn, nhng
khu vc ch c th cu nn duy nht bng
hng khng.
Ngay c khi xc nh c yu cu tm
kim cu nn bng hng khng ri vn cn
nghin cu b tr nhiu yu cu khc: nh
sn bay, loi my bay, cc phng tin h tr
khc phc v cng tc tm kim cu nn bng
hng khng.
Sau khi d bo nhu cu tm kim cu nn
bng hng khng, mi d kin cc v tr c th
p ng nhu cu tm kim cu nn bng hng
khng v mi v tr c th p ng cho loi
my bay no.
C th chia ba vng ln v tm kim cu
nn: Min Bc, Min Trung, Min Nam.
Ni dung d bo nhu cu tm kim cu
nn cn t cc tiu ch sau:
1. Mc quan trng ca tai nn (Quy
m tai nn; Phn b tai nn; nh hng ca
tai nn n cc vn x hi khc).
2. Vng a hnh (Vng ni cao him tr;
Vng bin; Vng b ngp lt; Vng trung du;
Vng ng bng chu th).
3. Nguyn nhn tai nn (Do bo lt; Do
ng t; Do ho hon; Do tai nn giao thng
khc; Do l do khc: con ngi, thit b ang
tham gia trong qu trnh xy dng, thng
mi, dch v du lch).
4. Kh nng ng cu, cu h ca cc
phng tin giao thng khc (bng ng b;
bng ng thu; bng ng st).
5. Phn vng lnh th (Min Bc; Min
Trung; Min Nam).
6. Quy m tai nn (Theo loi hnh tai
nn; S ngi cn cu nn; S ti sn, thit b
ca Nh nc, nhn dn).
7. Kh nng p ng ca cc phng tin
cu nn hng khng (S lng my bay;
Trang thit b y t; Nhn lc c o to
chuyn nghip; u t ca Nh nc trong
lnh vc ny).
8. Kh nng s dng cc sn bay dn
dng, qun s n khu vc cu nn (Sn bay
dn dng; Sn bay dng chung dn dng v
qun s; Sn bay dch v; Bi p my bay
trc thng).
9. Cc tiu ch v thi gian (Thi gian
xy ra tai nn; Thi gian ti a, ti thiu duy
tr yu cu cu nn bng hng khng; Thi
gian t khi xy ra tai nn n khi c quan
qun l nhn bit thng tin v tai nn; Thi
gian ng cu v gii quyt hu qu tai nn).
10. Cc phng tin truyn thng i
chng (Cc ngun thng tin c th nhn bit
v tai nn (nh v tinh, in thoi, truyn hnh
v cc phng tin truyn tin khc; Phn ng
ca cc c quan qun l v UB tm kim cu
nn: Thi gian nhn bit, thi gian x l, kim
tra tin cy ca thng tin...).
11. Loi phng tin cu nn hng
khng (Loi my bay cu nn; Cc thit b
ph hp; iu kin trang thit b ca bi p
my bay hoc sn bay gn nht).
12. V tr sn my bay (Din tch mt
bng sn ; Quy hoch sn bay).
13. Quy hoch mng li sn bay, trang
thit b mt t.
14. iu kin v a l, kh hu, thi tit.
15. Kh nng kt hp (Vi hng khng dn
dng; Vi sn bay qun s; Vi cc sn bay trc
thng, bi u v sn bay trn mt nc).
16. Cc l do khc: kinh nghim x l tai


nn tng t, mc chuyn mn ho; Trnh
thao tc nghip v
T cc tiu ch trn c th a ra h
thng thang im cho tng tiu ch xc
nh yu cu TKCN hng khng.
Khi quy hoch mng cng HK TKCN
phi tho mn cc mc tiu c bn sau:
- m bo tho mn cc yu cu v tm
kim cu nn
- m bo cc yu cu v tnh kp thi
chnh xc
- m bo cho quy hoch trc mt cng
nh lu di nhu cu TKCN

- Tn dng ti a nhng sn bay hin c,
ch pht trin v tr mi khi lun chng cc
iu kin hoc thc s cn thit. (Theo n
Quy hoch pht trin h thng sn bay ton
quc, trong phn nh gi hin trng chng ta
c 313 sn bay ln nh, 260 bi p trc
thng).
Mt s phng php d bo quy hoch
a. Phng php phn tch nh lng
(Phng php lng ha gii php quy
hoch mng)
Theo cc s liu thng k ca nhiu nm,
ca nhiu lnh vc lin quan n s tai nn
(thm ha thin nhin hoc cc tai nn do con
ngi) dng ton hc ni suy, tnh ton d
bo nhu cu cng tc TKCN.
vic lng ho c thnh cng
cn phi c y cc yu t trong qu
kh, hin ti v tng lai lng ho.
Tin trnh quy hoch mng sn bay tm
kim cu nn nh hnh 1.
y l phng php m Vin Khoa
hc hng khng thc hin xy dng
phng php thit k quy hoch mng
cng hng khng sn bay dn dng.
b. Phng php d bo theo m hnh
tng t
Phng php d bo nhu cu sn bay
phc v cng tc TKCN theo m hnh tng
t, l da vo vic thng k s lng nhu cu
cu nn cho cc lnh vc khc nhau nh s
lng thm ho t nhin xy ra trong khu vc:
thin tai, ho hon, chy rng, s lng cc
cn bo vo khu vc; s lng cc tai nn
nguyn nhn ch yu do hot ng ca con
ngi gy ra: thng trong cc lnh vc trong
nn kinh t quc dn.
Xc nh cc chnh sch
Su tm v lit k s liu v d liu
Phn tch h thng hin c
D bo nhu cu tm kim cu nn
v yu cu h thng sn bay tm kim
cu nn tng lai
Trin khai h thng tng lai
nh gi cc phng n
Lp quy hoch h thng sn bay TKCN

Thc hin quy hoch
Hnh 1. Tin trnh quy hoch mng sn bay
tm kim cu nn

T cc nhu cu tm kim cu nn m xc
nh nhu cu sn bay tm kim cu nn.
Ni chung cng vi s pht trin ca cc
ngnh, lnh vc kinh t nh hot ng xy
dng, khai thc m hm l, du lch, giao
thng vn ti u ko theo nhng tai nn
mang c th ring cho tng lnh vc.
Tu theo quy m, loi hnh tai nn, s
lng tai nn m c th xc nh nhu cu
TKCN bng hng khng.
Quan h s tai nn trong mi lnh vc
thng lin quan n s pht trin kinh t ca
lnh vc : v d nh cng vi s pht trin
cc phng tin vn ti ng b (xe t, xe
gn my...) km theo s lng cc tai nn trn
ng b gia tng; ngnh dch v du lch pht
trin cng a dng loi hnh dch v bao
nhiu, nguy c tai nn cng ln.
Cc hin tng kh hu bt thng ca
tri t, hiu ng nh knh do cc hot ng
ca chnh bn thn con ngi gy ra km theo
nhng thm ho tn khc khng th lng
trc.
T kt qu thng k trong nc, d bo
ca cc T chc Quc t, cc khu vc ln cn
d bo nguy c tai nn v nhu cu tm
kim cu nn bng hng khng.
c. Phng php xt on chuyn gia
y l phng php c dng kh ph
bin i vi mt quc gia hoc vng lnh th
khi xc nh hoc d bo nhu cu sn bay ni
chung v sn bay tm kim cu nn ni ring.
Phng php ny da trn s xt on
ca cc chuyn gia c hiu bit su sc v lnh
vc d bo (phng php ca DELPHI).
Mt nhm cc chuyn gia c la
chn chun b mt s phiu thm d v lnh
vc d bo c th bao gm tp hp cc cu
hi ngn gn. Phiu thm d c gi ti cc
nh qun l hoc cc chuyn gia c hiu bit
su sc v lnh vc d bo. Sau c thu
li tho lun nhn xt, nh gi nhng
im cha thng nht.
Qu trnh lp li nhiu ln cui cng
thu nhn c cc kin thng nht tc l kt
qu ng tin cy.
Phng php xt on chuyn gia c
s dng khi chui s liu thng k trong qu
kh cha nhiu, y l phng php kh thch
dng trong iu kin ca chng ta.
Phng php ny c dng d bo
nhu cu TKCN cho mt vng lnh th, hoc
trong phm vi c nc.
y l phng php ch o c dng
d bo nhu cu vn ti hnh khch ton
quc trong d n Quy hoch h thng cng
hng khng-sn bay dn dng ton quc giai
on 1995-2001.
d. Phng php ngoi suy
Trn c s phn tch nh gi hot ng
tm kim cu nn trong nhng nm qua xc
nh yu cu hin ti v d bo nhu cu cho
tng lai v cu nn bng hng khng.
V d: Theo s liu iu tra trong qu
kh, s lng tai nn cn nhu cu tm kim
cu nn hng khng cho mt khu vc hoc
mt vng lnh th.
T tp s liu iu tra lp quan h gia
nhu cu tm kim cu nn vi thi gian, trn
c s tm hm quan h hoc th hin trn
biu .
Hm quan h trong qu kh c th l
hm tuyn tnh hoc hm s m, trn c s
ta xc nh c yu cu tm kim cu nn


cho nm tng lai d kin.











Hnh 2. Xc nh hm quan h nhu cu TKCN
Phng php ny thch hp vi d bo
ngn hn, c bit kh ph hp cho cc quc
gia c lch s pht trin cng tc tm kim cu
nn lu di, c c tp hp s liu phong
ph, nh vy cng tc ngoi suy c tin cy
cao hn.
Bng s liu thng k nhu cu TKCN cc nm
Ngc li vi nhng quc gia m ngnh
hng khng ni chung cha pht trin, ang
pht trin, hoc cng tc trin khai tm kim
cu nn cha tin hnh bi bn hoc cha c
tp d liu thng k v qu kh th phng
php ny t ra khng thch hp.
Vit Nam chng ta tng i kh p
dng phng php ny, c th kt hp mt s
phng php khc.
III. KT LUN
Trn y l mt s nh hng v ni
dung xc nh nhu cu tm kim cu nn bng
hng khng v phng php d bo nhu cu
sn bay phc v cng tc tm kim cu nn
Vit Nam.
Hin ti
N
h
u

c

u

T
K
C
N

Thi gian
Ngoi suy
Theo tc gi trong iu kin Vit Nam
nn s dng phng php lng ha gii php
quy hoch mng kt hp xt on chuyn gia
l hiu qu hn c.

Ti liu tham kho
[1]. Cc Hng khng VN - Tiu chun sn bay
trc thng dn dng Vit Nam- (D tho)
[2]. GS. TS V nh Phng - Quy hoch thit k v
kho st sn bay NXB Xy dng 2003
[3]. PGS TS Phm Huy Khang - Thit k v quy
hoch sn bay cng hng khng NXB Xy dng
2006
[4]. ThS Phm Vn Ti - Tnh hnh thit k quy
hoch mng cng hng khng sn bay dn dng-
Vin KHHK



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S
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TKCN
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