Cycles Research Institute

http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/
The Case for Cycles
by Edward R Dewey
First published by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles
in the aga!ine Cycles in "uly #$%&
The Case for Cycles
I a indebted to 'rofessor Richard '. Feynan( theoretical physicist of the California Institute of
Technology at 'asadena( for the basic structure of the article. 'rofessor Feynan once said to e(
)In regard to cycles( the proper scientific assuption to start with is that they are chance. If they
cannot reasonably be chance( the ne*t assuption should be that they are caused within the
phenoenon or the syste of which the phenoenon is an interacting part. +nly if the cycles can
not be the result of chance or endogenous causes should we underta,e to postulate e*ternal or
e*ogenous causes.) This forula of 'rofessor Feynan-s has constituted the basic philosophy of
the Foundation fro that day to this. It is the fraewor, around which the following paper has
been built.
+ne eleent of the case for cycles is the great nuber of e*aples that e*ist to illustrate each of
the points that can be ade. For e*aple( the fact that all ,nown cycles of the sae length turn
at about the sae calendar tie is con.incing e.idence of interrelatedness. /ut if we can produce
#0 or 12 additional e*aples of cycles of other lengths( each of which beha.es siilarly( we can
be 3ust that uch ore sure that we are dealing with reality. 4nfortunately( the space liitations
of )The Case for Cycles) were such that( in the ain( only one e*aple of each sort of beha.ior
could be gi.en.
T5E C6SE F+R C7C8ES
/y ED96RD R. DE9E7
There is considerable e.idence( as we shall see in the pages that follow( that there are natural
en.ironental forces that alternately stiulate and depress an,ind in the ass. These sae
forces ay also affect plant and anial life( weather( and e.en such norally unchanging things
as cheical reactions.
In the first part of this paper we shall discuss the e.idence that these forces e*ist( and that they
do ha.e the effects attributed to the. In the second part of the paper( to appear in another
issue( we shall discuss how such forces ight operate: how they ight affect li.ing tissue.
The arguent for the e*istence of these forces runs soething li,e this: 6lost e.erything
fluctuates. ;any things fluctuate in cycles or wa.es. ;any of these wa.es are spaced .ery
regularly and ha.e other characteristics that indicate that the spacing cannot reasonably be
chance. <on=chance spacing ust( by the eaning of words( ha.e a cause. This cause ust be
internal >dynaic? or interacting >feedbac, or predator=prey? or e*ternal. In any e.ent it ust be
a force of soe sort. In any instances this force cannot reasonably be internal or interacting.
Therefore it presuably is e*ternal.
In the first instance we do not need to ,now what this force or cause is =it is enough to ,now that
it ust be soething. 9e then proceed fro there to find it.
8et us adit straightaway( howe.er( that in spite of the e.idence( the case for the e*istence of
such forces has not been pro.ed. 9e do not ,now that forces of this sort surround us. If they
e*ist( no one ,nows what they are = although there are soe guesses. <o one has e.er seen
the=they are as in.isible as radio wa.es. Few people ha.e e.en iagined the. 9e erely
assue the( wor,ing bac,ward fro obser.ed beha.ior.
In a oent I wish to e*aine with you the iplications of these disco.eries( but before I do( you
should ha.e in ind ore definitely than you ay ha.e( a concept or odel of what I a tal,ing
about. Radios and radio wa.es pro.ide a good analogy.
9e are all failiar with radios and ,now in a general way how they operate. Each radio sending
station eits wa.es of a different nuber of cycles per second. The radio recei.ers in our houses
respond to one or another of these .ibrations( according to where we set our tuning dial.
<ow iagine that a an fro ;ars is in y house for a .isit. 5e is a good physicist( but he ,nows
nothing of radio sending stations. 5e studies y radio. Fro this study he deterines that( when
he sets the dial a certain way( the radio .ibrates &$.@ thousand ties a second: and that when y
second radio is set to .ibrate this way also( it plays the sae tune. 9ith these facts before hi it
does not ta,e hi .ery long to postulate that both roos are filled with in.isible .ibrations of
soe sort to which both radios respond( and that soewhere there is soething that generates
these .ibrations. Further( as the sae thing happens when he sets the dials at #2@.1( he deduces
that there is a second generating force = and so on for each setting.
4p to this point the e*istence of these wa.es or these sending stations is purely presupti.e. 5e
deduces the by logical reasoning.
Suppose our an fro ;ars now coes across statistics or studies which show that e.ery ten
years or so rabbits in Canada are ore abundant( thus creating a rhythic cycle of great
regularity: the population increasing for @ or 0 years and then decreasing for an eAual span of
tie. 5e also disco.ers that rainfall in 8ondon and rainfall in India fluctuate in cycles of the sae
length. So does the abundance of o!one at 'aris( the nuber of caterpillars in <ew "ersey( the
abundance of salon on both sides of the 6tlantic( as well as any other things. 9hat-s ore( he
finds that all things ha.ing cycles of this sae length tend to crest at the sae tie.
5e also reads that other things act as if they respond to cyclic forces of other tie inter.als and
that always( cycles of the sae length tend to synchroni!e.
)9hyB he says( )It-s 3ust li,e that radio thing that I loo,ed at first( e*cept that these phenoena
are the recei.ing sets instead of those little blac, bo*es: and the en.ironental forces that I
deduce are thousands and thousands of ties longer. These cycles are easured in years instead
of fractions of a second.
)<ow(-- he adds( )I-ll as, y host to e*plain all this to e. 5e can tell e( I a sure( what a,es
the bo*es play the sae tunes when set at the sae freAuency( what a,es do!ens and do!ens
of phenoena fluctuate together as if they were sub3ect to the sae en.ironental forces.)
+ur friend fro ;ars o.errates e. I can e*plain a little about radio wa.es and sending stations(
but as for the longer cycles( I a lost. 6ll I can do is to share his belief that there ust be
soething that causes the.
<ow I a going to as, you to a,e an effort of credulity and adit=3ust for the sa,e of getting on
with the story = that these beha.iors are so( and that they are the result of soe e*ternal(
in.isible( and as yet un,nown forces. 8ater I shall present soe of the e.idence to support this
idea( but for now I wish you erely to consider the iplications and corollaries if this thesis
pro.es to be correct.
The first iplication is that law( regularity( order( and pattern e*ist in .ast areas hitherto thought
to be patternless. 6 disco.ery of this sort is a,in to the disco.ery by the ancients that the planets
>so called fro the Cree, word planet( eaning wanderer? did indeed ha.e regular and
predictable o.eents. It is a,in to the disco.ery that the fluctuating le.els of the sea >the tides?
are regular and hence predictable. It is a,in to the disco.ery of gers( radiation( D=rays( or
atos. It is a,in to the disco.ery that the atoic weights of the eleents can be arranged into a
periodic table. In fact( it is siilar to any of the great disco.eries since the dawn of ci.ili!ation
that ha.e dri.en caprice( disorder( and chaos bac, toward libo. I can thin, of nothing that will
e*tend the area of order into ore different areas( ore different disciplines( ore different
phenoena than cycle study = if these postulated forces really e*ist.
The second iplication of cycle study is the enorous increase in the area of predictability. It is
the business of science to predict. Thus( two atos of hydrogen arid one ato of o*ygen >512?
under certain conditions will always cobine to produce one olecule of water. Insofar as cycles
are non=chance phenoena and continue after disco.ery( we ha.e notably and iportantly
increased this particular function of science. 6 way has been opened up to an,ind not
only to forecast( but thus to circu.ent any aspects of what hitherto has seeed the
capriciousness of fate.
Third( insofar as cycles are eaningful( all science that has been de.eloped in the absence of cycle
,nowledge is inadeAuate and partial. Thus( if cyclic forces are real( any theory of econoics( or
sociology( or history( or edicine( or cliatology that ignores nonchance rhyths is anifestly
incoplete( as edicine was before the disco.ery of gers.
Fourth( if these cyclic forces are real( there is a uch greater degree of interrelationship within
nature than was pre.iously reali!ed( since the sae cycles appear in any different natural and
social sciences. The iplications are one of wholeness instead of the ephasis we so often see
upon saller and saller sections of ,nowledge.
Fifth( if these forces e*ist( an is further deflated. 9hen a ,nowledge of cycles becoes
widespread( it will create a 3olt to an-s ego siilar to that created by the ,nowledge that any
of his actions are dictated by his subconscious: that the earth is not the center of the 4ni.erse:
that e.en our Cala*y is but a spec, of dust. To a uch greater e*tent than forerly reali!ed( an
has been a cor, on the tides of destiny. 5owe.er( ,nowledge of these forces=when we ,now that
they really e*ist=will enable an to foil the. Sufficient ,nowledge always has this effect.
Si*th( all in all( the 4ni.erse is shown to be an e.en ore ar.elous place than has hitherto been
reali!ed.
These are broad clais indeed( e.en if it is appreciated that they are corollaries and iplications
only if these postulated forces e*ist.
The rest of this paper will be de.oted to e*aining such e.idence as we now ha.e in regard to our
thesis. In reading it( reeber that it would be possible to add any other instances to each
e*aple gi.en. In soe cases this e*pansion could be a hundredfold. Eeeping this fact in ind( I
a hopeful that your conclusion will be that a good deal of e.idence for our thesis does e*ist and
that the corollaries and iplications are so iportant that an e*tensi.e and intensi.e effort should
be ade to confir >or deny? it.
T5E 'REF68E<CE +F R57T5;IC /E56FI+R
;ore than 022 different phenoena in G% different areas of ,nowledge ha.e been found to
fluctuate in rhythic cycles=that is( in oscillations that recur at reasonably regular tie inter.als.
In physics( cycles occur in electroagnetic .ibrations( such as light wa.es( radio wa.es( D=rays(
and in sound wa.es: in astronoy( cycles are created by the otions and .ibrations of .arious
hea.enly bodies: in geology( repetiti.e patterns are found in earthAua,es( .olcanic eruptions(
sedientary roc, deposits( and the ad.ance and recession of glaciers: in biology( rhythic
fluctuations occur in the abundance of .arious species of anial life and in the functioning of the
anials- .arious physiological processes: and in econoics( nonchance rhythic patterns can be
found in prices( production and other aspects of an-s aterial acti.ities. Table # lists soe of the
.arious phenoena in which rhythic cycles ha.e been found.
Table #: D6T6 56FI<C C7C8ES
NATURAL SCIENCE
6STR+<+;7 6<D 6STR+'57SICS
6uroras( coets( eteor showers
'lanets( satellites( asteroids
Rotation of gala*ies
Sunspots and other solar phenoena
Fariable stars
/I+8+C7
Bacteriology
6bundance and acti.ity of bacteria in huan
beings
Botany
6bundance of crops( plants( seeds( and algae
6ssiilation and photosynthesis
Concentration of growth substances
Electrical conducti.ity of sap
Electrical e*citability of iosa
Electrical potential of trees
Fiber and indi.idual organ growth
<ectar production and sugar content
'hotoperiodicity
Thic,ness of tree rings
Entomology
6bundance and acti.ity of insects
Feeding( hatching( and igration
'igent changes of certain insects
Herpetology
6bundance of sna,es and aphibians
6cti.ity of li!ards and salaanders
'igent changes in salaanders
Ichthyology and Limnology
6bundance of algae( plan,ton( and fish
Egg cycle of .arious fish
;igrations
Invertebrate oology
6bundance of .arious in.ertebrates
/ody teperature and etabolic rate
Contraction wa.es in wors
Cer cell aturation
8ight production and photic responses
;igration of .arious in.ertebrates
Surface color and pigent changes
!ammalogy
6bundance and acti.ity of .arious aals
Fur production
'hysical cycles and acti.ity=rest periods
Fariations in il, production
"rnithology
6bundance of .arious birds
;etabolic acti.ity
;igration
9ing beats of .arious birds
C8I;6T+8+C7
6ir o.eents and wind direction
/aroetric pressure and teperature
Clacial o.eents
+!one content of the atosphere
'recipitation( including abnoralities
Stor tracts
CE+8+C7
EarthAua,es( geysers( .olcanic eruptions
Encrustations of archaeological artifacts
Ceologic epochs and periods
Sedientary deposits( .ar.es( seiches
Soil erosion
Thic,ness of roc, strata
CE+'57SICS >also see Cliatology?
Radio propagation Auality
Terrestrial agnetis
57DR+8+C7 6<D 57DR+CR6'57
8a,e( ri.er( and sea le.els
+cean currents( teperature( and wa.es
Ri.er flow and run=off Tides
;EDICI<E
6bundance of disease organiss and parasitic
wors
/irths and ortalities
/lood pressure and blood=sugar content
/ody teperature and etabolis
Electrical s,in resistance
Eotions and ental acti.ity
Endocrine and glandular secretions
Epideics and pandeics
Fe.ers and after=shoc,
Incidence of diseases and disorders
;uscular( ner.ous( and se*ual acti.ity
'lasa cheistry .ariations
'sychiatric abnoralities
Respiration and .isceral acti.ities
Teeth sensiti.ity
Feterinary diseases
'57SICS
6cti.ity of electrons and olecular .ibrations
Electroagnetic wa.es and flu*
Radio and sound wa.es
S"CIAL SCIENCE
EC+<+;ICS
6d.ertising efficiency
6gricultural production
/uilding and real estate acti.ity
Coodity prices
Financial data
Ceneral business acti.ity
Iports( e*ports( trade acti.ity
'roduction( consuption( sales
'urchasing power
Transportation
9age earner acti.ity
S+CI+8+C7
Ci.il and international war battles
Creati.ity and in.enti.eness
Crie
Cultures and ci.ili!ations
Fashion
5uan ability( e*citability( output
Insanity
Intellectual interest
8iberalis .ersus conser.atis
;arriages and births
;ilitary=political acti.ity
'eriods of eotional e*citeent
'opulation
Religious and scientific acti.ity
Stri,es and uneployent
8ife abounds with rhythic cycles. The cause of soe of these cycles is ,nown >photoperiodicity
for e*aple?. The cause of other rhythic cycles is ere chance. /ut soe rhythic cycles of
un,nown cause can be shown to be non=chance. It is these cycles that arouse our curiosity and
our interest.
8et us turn now to the e.idence that leads us to belie.e that soe of these rhythic cycles of
un,nown cause are not of chance origin.
EFIDE<CE +F SIC<IFIC6<CE
Indi.idual rhyths are often significant in their own right because the pattern = the reasonably
regular recurrence of ups and downs = is so ordered that it is not li,ely to be the result of chance.
+b.iously( soe rhythic patterns( such as those that can soeties be found in a table of
rando nubers or in a chart of such nubers( are of chance origin. It is eAually ob.ious that
other rhythic patterns( such as the alternation of day and night( winter and suer( high tide
and low tide( are not.
If we do not ,now the cause( we can often 3udge fro internal e.idence alone the probability of
the beha.ior being chance or non=chance. Statistical techniAues ha.e been and are being de.ised
to answer 3ust such Auestions.
There are( oreo.er( a nuber of additional criteria by which significance of pattern in the
beha.ior of any one phenoenon( ta,en by itself( can be deterined. In brief( these are: the
e*tent to which the pattern is doinant( regular and repetiti.e( aintains a unifor period(
reestablishes itself after distortion( continues o.er long periods of tie >that is( through changed
en.ironental conditions?( persists after disco.ery( and e.idences non=chance characteristics such
as syetry.
8et us consider these criteria one by one and( by way of illustration( gi.e one e*aple of beha.ior
that fulfills the test.
C7C8E D+;I<6<CE
Cyclic doinance is the degree to which the ups and downs of a tie series are the result of the
cycle in contrast to the .ariations that are caused by other factors. 6 series is a collection of data
arranged in soe order. 6 tie series is an arrangeent of data that easures the successi.e
changes in phenoena o.er a period of tie. 6.erage annual teperatures at <ew 5a.en fro
#&H# to #$%% constitute a tie series( as do successi.e stoc, price Auotations.
Doinance can be easured in respect to the actual data or in respect to the data after the
reo.al of trend. Trend is that eleent in a tie series that changes its direction slowly. Trend
easures growth >or decay( which is negati.e growth? in contrast to the fluctuations. Fluctuations(
whether rhythic or rando( are the oscillations around the trend and the departures fro trend.
They are ordinarily easured as percentages of trend.
Figure # shows the .ariations in the offerings of lyn* s,ins in Canada fro #&G0=G% through #$%1=
%G. The offerings of lyn* s,ins are generally considered to be a .ery good easure of the
abundance of the lyn*. The doinance of a rhythic cycle is e.ident and is the ost iportant
characteristic of this beha.ior. The period of this cycle is $.% years( which is the a.erage or typical
inter.al between crests or troughs.
I ha.e added a $.%=year !ig!ag to ideali!e the tiing of the rhythic cycle. This !ig!ag is a true
periodicity >a fluctuation of perfect regularity? in contrast to the erely rhythic beha.ior of the
actual figures. <o one ,nows the cause of this cycle or why it is $.% years long.
<ot all cycles are as doinant as the $.%=year cycle of lyn* abundance. For this reason it is often
necessary to use other criteria in order to decide whether or not rhythic beha.ior is to be
considered the result of chance. +ne of these criteria is the regularity of the cycle.
REC486RIT7 +F TI;I<C
+b.iously( the ore the beha.ior of the phenoenon adheres to soe true periodicity or pattern(
the less li,ely it is to be the result of chance. The $.%=year cycle of lyn* abundance charted in
Figure # is Auite aa!ingly regular( and this fact gi.es us another reason for thin,ing that lyn*
abundance is non=chance beha.ior. There are any draatic e*aples of phenoena with
regular patterns of beha.ior. +ne of these is the sales of a <ew England te*tile plant. 6 chart of
sales fro #$G# through #$@2( after reo.al of trend( showed a rear,ably regular G=onth
cycle. This is illustrated in Figure 1 where the actual onthly sales( as percentages of trend( are
shown in coparison with a true G=onth periodicity. <o one ,nows the cause of this cycle( but it
cannot reasonably be due to chance.
Fig. #: 6< ED6;'8E +F 6< ES'ECI6887 D+;I<6<T C7C8E
6n inde* of lyn* abundance( Canada( #&G0=G% to #$%1=%G. The period of this cycle = i.e.(
the a.erage tie inter.al between crests or troughs = is $.% years. This tiing is indicated by
the rigid periodicity diagraed by the thin bro,en line.
The doinance of this cycle( coupled with the nuber of repetitions and their regularity(
shows that this cycle cannot reasonably be the result of chance. 9e ay therefore suppose
that it is created by dynaic forces within the lyn* population( or by a predator=prey
relationship( or by soe en.ironental force or forces.
Cycles do not need to be as regular as this one to indicate a non=chance origin. ;any repetitions
of an irregular cycle are 3ust as con.incing to the e*pert as a few repetitions of a regular cycle. In
fact( the cyclic forces are often so wea, that they are unable to produce any .isible rhyths at all.
4nder these circustances their presence ust be deterined atheatically. 9hen obser.able
regularity is present( howe.er( it is an additional criterion of significance to indicate non=chance
beha.ior.
<4;/ER +F RE'ETITI+<S
It is ob.ious that the greater the nuber of wa.es in a cyclic recurrence( the greater the odds that
the regularity is not the result of chance. For e*aple( it is uch ore difficult to find ten
successi.e wa.es of about the sae length in chance figures than to find fi.e. To pro.e this( toss
a coin. See how any tries it ta,es to get fi.e successi.e heads/tails in ten throws: then see how
any tries it ta,es to get ten successi.e heads/tails in twenty throws.
Fig. 1: 6< ED6;'8E +F 6< ES'ECI6887 REC486R C7C8E
;onthly sales of a large anufacturing copany after reo.al of the short ter trend(
"anuary( #$G#=+ctober( #$@2. The period of this cycle is G onths( as diagraed by the
thin bro,en lines.
6 cycle as regular as this( and as doinant( and as repetitious( cannot reasonably be the
result of chance. It ust ha.e a cause.
Fig. G: 6< ED6;'8E +F 6 C7C8E T56T 56S RE'E6TED ;6<7 TI;ES
The chart shows the ton iles of the Canadian 'acific Railway( "uly( #$2G=Deceber( #$@2
after reo.al of trend and seasonal .ariation.
6 $.#H=onth rhythic cycle is clearly e.ident by inspection. It has been diagraed by a
rigid $.#H=onth !ig!ag. 9ithin the inter.al shown this cycle repeated @H ties. It cannot
reasonably be rando beha.ior.
Figure G illustrates repetitions which could hardly be the result of chance. The chart shows
onthly ton=iles of the Canadian 'acific Railway fro "uly #$2G through Deceber #$@2 after
the trend and the #1=onth or seasonal cycle ha.e been reo.ed. 6 rhythic cycle with a $.#H=
onth period repeats @H tiesB The tiing of this cycle is diagraed by the bro,en !ig!ag line.
It is inconcei.able that wa.es which repeat as any ties as the $.#H=onth cycle in Canadian
'acific Railway ton=iles could occur by chance.
There is a difficulty( howe.er( when the nuber of repetitions is used as a gauge of cycle
significance because any series of figures are too short to allow a large nuber of repetitions.
For the ost part we ha.e not been recording facts for ore than 02 or #22 years. 6 cycle ay
ha.e e*isted in soe phenoenon for hundreds of years( but we ha.e no records to show this.
6lthough both the $.%=year lyn* cycle and the G=onth te*tile cycle ha.e any repetitions( there
are not as any repetitions as in the $.#H=onth cycle of Canadian 'acific Railway ton=iles. The
repetitions( howe.er( occur often enough( and the patterns in the lyn* and te*tile cycles eet
additional criteria( which gi.es cuulati.e e.idence of non=chance beha.ior.
C+<ST6<C7 +F 'ERI+D
If a cycle in a series of figures persists o.er any repetitions with no change o f period we ha.e
additional e.idence that the cycle is not of chance origin.
Refer to Figure @ which shows sinusoidal cur.es fitted to each fifth of a long .ar.e record. Far.es
are annual layers deposited on the bottos of la,es. These layers .ary in thic,ness fro year to
year. These .ariations are cyclic. +ne of the 8a,e Sa,i .ar.es cycles( shown here( is about #&.G1G
years long. The first cur.e( 6( ideali!es the a.erage of the first forty=eight #&.G1G=year sections of
the data( 11$# /.C. through #@%2 /.C.
Cur.e / ideali!es the sae cycle in the ne*t forty=eight #&.G1G=year sections( and so on. Each
cycle is repeated by a bro,en line. E*cept for inor .ariations( due presuably to rando
distortions( the period holds constant throughout the entire @(#%2=year period.
Fig. @: 6 C7C8E +F 4<C56<CI<C 'ERI+D
The chart shows sinusoidal cur.es fitted to a.erage
#&.G1G=year cycles in 8a,e Sa,i .ar.es in each of fi.e
H G1=year sections of the data >@H wa.es each? fro
11$# /.C. through 6.D. #H%$. Each cycle is repeated
in phanto by eans of a bro,en line.
The fact that the wa.es fall alost e*actly under each
other shows that there is alost no change in the
length of the cycle. 9hat little change there is is
presuably the effect of randos that do not fully
offset each other through the a.eraging process.
This cycle in these figures is so distorted by other
cycles and randos that it cannot be seen easily as a
wa.e=by=wa.e rhyth. 5owe.er( when a nuber of
wa.es are a.eraged together the randos offset each
other and the cycle appears( largely freed fro
distortion.
REEST6/8IS5;E<T +F '56SE
'hase is a technical ter which refers to a particular state or stage in a recurring cycle of changes.
For e*aple( the phases of the oon. 9hen the wa.es of a rhyth are in step with what they
were before( they are said to be )in phase) with pre.ious beha.ior. 9hen they are not in step they
are )out of phase.)
If( after a distortion( the cycle in a series of figures reasserts itself in phase=in step=with its
pre.ious tiing( the cycle is uch ore li,ely to be nonchance or significant than if it does not.
The fact that rhythic cycles alost always do this is one of the ore con.incing arguents for
the non=chance nature.
Figure 0 shows the year=to=year rate of change in the onthly production of pig iron fro "anuary
#$2# through Deceber #$@2. The fluctuations are characteri!ed by the bro,en !ig!ag line. The
cycle is Auite doinant( Auite regular( and shows ## and #/1 repetitions. 6 a3ority of the crests
fall within three or four onths one way or the other of typical tiing. The regularity of the crests
is indicated by the brac,ets on the top of the chart( while the eAual regularity of the troughs is
indicated by the brac,ets on the botto.
Follow the beha.ior wa.e by wa.e: first wa.e( a=/=b: second wa.e( b=C=c: third wa.e( c=D=d:
fourth wa.e( d=E=e( and so on. The si*th wa.e is badly distorted by 9orld 9ar I( but the se.enth
wa.e( g=5=h is entirely bac, to the schedule as deterined by the pre=war beha.ior. 6gain( wa.e
h=I=i is soewhat distorted. The trough at 3( during the depression( was a year late. 9a.e ,=8=# is
noral( howe.er( and the cycle continues noral up to the beginning of 9orld 9ar II.
In alost all non=chance rhythic cycles( after a distortion( the wa.es return to pre=distortion
tiing.
'ERSISTE<CE T5R+4C5 C56<CED C+<DITI+<S
9hen a rhythic cycle persists in spite of changed en.ironental conditions we ha.e additional
e.idence that it is of a non=chance nature. For an e*aple of this situation we ha.e chosen a
series of figures fro the field of econoics( because it is in this field that the greatest changes
ha.e ta,en place o.er the years.
Figure % shows the prices of wrought iron in England fro #1HH to #$2H( with trend reo.ed(
together with a diagra of its #% 1/G=year cycle. <ote that this cycle has reained a constant
characteristic of these figures fro before the Industrial Re.olution( through the Industrial
Re.olution( and up into the era of odern technology.
In see,ing cycles in a series of figures one needs to ,now what to loo, for. Cycles are norally
distorted by trend( by randos( and by other cycles. Crests and troughs alost ne.er coe
e*actly on tie. E*tra crests and troughs often appear. 6ll this usually a,es the cycle hard to
see. Thus( one loo,s for areas of strength followed by areas of wea,ness.
Enowing all this( in the e*aple gi.en 6( /( C( D( and E are e*cellent crests. +ne is not isled by
the false pea,s between E and F( C and 5( or by the three crests between 5 and " and between "
and 8 >where( in both cases( the #% 1/G=year pattern calls for two pea,s?. The pattern reasserts
itself with 8( ;( <( 2(=I( R( S( and T. >' is soewhat distorted. So is 4: but F is bac, on the
trac,.? The cycle is then practically issing to 66( but after 66 we ha.e //( CC( and DD. E*tra
crests e*ist between EE and FF( 55 and II( and after EE( but CC( II( ""( and EE are all good crests(
reasonably on tie.
For the sa,e of siplicity I ha.e spo,en only of crests. Troughs ust be considered too. In fact( in
actual analysis e.ery point on the cur.e is considered.
Fig. 0: 6< ED6;'8E +F 6 C7C8E T56T RE6SSERTS ITSE8F 6FTER DIST+RTI+<
The chart shows the yearly rate=of=change in pig iron production( "anuary #$2# = Deceber
#$@2( together with a diagra of a perfectly regular @#=onth cycle. <ote that after the
distortion of #$#$ and #$12 following 9orld 9ar I( the pre.ious pattern reasserts itself.
Siilarly( after the distortions of #$G1 and #$GG. <ote that( in spite of all distortions(
randos( and other cycles also present in these figures( a a3ority of crests and troughs fall
within three or four onths one way or the other of perfect tiing( as shown by the sall
brac,ets.
'ERSISTE<CE 6FTER DISC+FER7
If the cycle ,eeps on coing true after disco.ery we ha.e powerful e.idence that the pattern is
not the result of chance.
The reason for this is easy to see. 9hen we e*aine a series of figures for the possible presence
of rhythic cycles we are free to select any cycle length that fits the fluctuation. 9ith #22 years of
figures( let us say( we are free to choose any cycle length fro two years >02 repetitions? to 02
years >two repetitions?. Suppose this range gi.es us 02 choices. Suppose we find a @=year cycle.
Suppose( through passage of tie or otherwise( we obtain a continuation of the series of figures.
9e wish to see if our @=year cycle continues to coe true. /ut on the continuation of the figures
we no longer ha.e 02 choices. 9e are liited to one choice=the @=year one. If the figures are
rando it will be 02 ties as hard to find one particular cycle deterined in ad.ance as it was
when we had our choice of any one of 02 cycles. Therefore( if we do find the predeterined cycle
in the continuation of the series( we are 3ustified in saying that the probability of randoness has
decreased( perhaps fifty=fold.
Cycle study is so new that ost cycles ha.e not had uch chance to continue after disco.ery. This
fact a,es the criterion of coing true after disco.ery hard to apply. The difficulty could be
Fig. %: 6< ED6;'8E +F 6 C7C8E T56T 56S C+<TI<4ED 4<C56<CED
T5R+4C5 C56<CED E<FIR+<;E<T68 C+<DITI+<S
The chart shows wrought iron prices in England( #1HH=#$2H with trend reo.ed( together
with a diagra of a perfectly regular #% 1/G=year cycle.
There are any irregularities( but on the whole( areas of strength are followed by areas of
wea,ness at about #% 1/G=year inter.als.
<ote that after distortions the pre.ious pattern reasserts itself.
o.ercoe if all cycle deterinations were ade on a part of the data and the disco.ered cycle or
cycles pro3ected upon the reaining part. 5owe.er( this procedure in.ol.es double wor, because(
for the ost accurate deterination( one wants to use e.ery scrap of data a.ailable: using part of
the data to start with eans doing the wor, all o.er again. Deterining the length of the cycle
fro part of the data and then coparing the cycle so deterined with the rest of the data is
therefore not usually done.
For our e*aple of a cycle coing true after disco.ery( let us go bac, to one of the earliest cycle
deterinations =the $=year cycle in pig iron prices which was disco.ered by Sauel /enner in
#H&@. In studying pig iron price beha.ior in the data a.ailable to hi at that tie( /enner noticed
that pea,s in these figures cae at H=( $=( and #2=year inter.als and repeat >an a.erage $=year
cycle?( and that troughs cae at &=( ##=( and $=year inter.als and repeat. 5e pro3ected this
pattern fro #H&1 into the future. This ga.e hi the years in which to buy( the years in which to
sell. If you had used these dates for trading( your percentage gains between #H&1 and #$G$ would
ha.e been 02 ties your lossesB See Table 1.
The true length of this pig iron price cycle is $.1 years( but /enner did not ,now how to handle
cycles of fractional year periods. ConseAuently his forecast got off the trac, by one year e.ery fi.e
wa.es. /y #$G$ his pro3ection was no longer usable.
6 .ariation of this criterion of seeing whether a cycle continues after disco.ery occurs when one
presupposes a particular cycle length( loo,s for it( and finds it. The #&.G1G=year cycle in 8a,e Sa,i
.ar.es( used to illustrate the pre.ious section called )Constancy of 'eriod) was deterined this
way. Enough is ,nown about cycle beha.ior so that it was possible to say( without any preliinary
T6/8E 1: 'R+FIT 6<D 8+SS FR+; I;6CI<6R7 '4RC56SE 6<D S68E( 6<D
S5+RT S68E( 6CC+RDI<C T+ /E<<ER-S )C6ST IR+< R48E() #H&1 T+ #$G$
Date /uy at Sell at Short at Co.er at Cain or 8oss 6ctual 'er Cent
8ong Short 8ong Short
#H&1 J@H.$@
#H&& J#H.$1 J#H.$1 JG2.21 %#.G
#HH# J10.#& 10.#& J %.10 GG.2
#HHH #H.HH #H.HH %.1$ 10.2
#H$# #&.01 #&.01 =#.G% =&.1
#H$& #1.#2 #1.#2 0.@1 G2.$
#H$$ #$.G2 #$.G2 &.1% %2.2
#$2@ #0.0& #0.0& G.&$ #$.%
#$2H #&.0& #&.0& 1.22 #1.H
#$#0 #@.2# #@.2# G.0% 12.G
#$#H GG.10 GG.10 #$.1@ #G&.G
#$1@ 11.#2 11.#2 ##.#0 GG.0
#$1% 1#.%@ 1#.%@ =.@% =1.#
#$G# #&.G0 #&.G0 @.1$ #$.H
#$G0 #H.%H #.GG &.&
TotaI per cent gains( long 102.H
Total per cent gains( short 1#2.@
Total per cent gains @%#.1
Total per cent losses( long $.G
Total per cent losses( short 2
Total per cent losses $.G
Cain = loss ratio 02 to #
Fig. &: 6< ED6;'8E +F SEFER68 C7C8ES 'RESE<T C+<C4RRE<T87 I< T5E
S6;E '5E<+;E<+<
Cur.es 6( /( C( and D diagra the 1#=( G2=( @#=( and @@=onth cycles in the prices of
alleable iron pipe fittings( "anuary( #$1% through Deceber( #$GG. Cur.e E shows their
synthesis. Cur.e F shows actual prices for the sae period( as percentages of trend.
It is interesting to note that the cycles were deterined fro data ;arch #$1G to "uly #$1&
and fro "anuary #$GG through #$@H. Data 6ugust #$1& through Deceber #$G1 were
una.ailable when the analysis was ade. 7et( when later obtained( the prices for this 0 #/1=
year period were Auite realistically represented by the synthesis of the four cycles deterined
without any ,nowledge of the.
reconnaissance( )There ought to be a cycle
about #& #/G years long in these figures.
8et us see if it is there.) It was.
To find a cycle of considerable strength(
constant period >a.erage cycle length(
easured in tie? and predeterined
length( o.er a @(222=year span of tie in
rando nubers would be( for all practical
purposes( ipossible. Ergo( the figures are
not rando.
8ater we shall see how it was possible to
suspect( without e.en loo,ing( that there
was probably a cycle of this length in this
series of figures.
C+;'8ED C7C8ES
;any phenoena act as if they were
influenced siultaneously by two or ore
cyclic forces. For e*aple( the prices of
alleable iron pipe fittings fro "anuary of
#$1G through Deceber of #$@H are
characteri!ed by four cycles of 1#( G2( @#(
and @@ onths.
It is an interesting point that these cycles
were deterined by data fro ;arch #$1G to "uly #$1& and "anuary #$GG to Deceber #$@H.
Data were issing for the fi.e and one=half=year period fro 6ugust #$1& through Deceber
#$G1. These fi.e and one=half years of data were later disco.ered( and found to fit the pre.iously
deterined pattern draatically. Figure & shows these prices for this span of tie together with
the synthesis of the four cycles as deterined fro the two ends of the cur.e before the #$1&=
#$G1 prices were ,nown.
It is not ipossible to find ore than one rhythic cycle in a series of rando nubers. 5owe.er(
when the cobination of cycles as deterined fro part of a series of figures confors to the
beha.ior of another part of the series not used in the cycle deterination( the probability of such
correspondence arising by chance is .ery sall indeed.
96FE S56'E
Cycles in rando nubers( when you can find the( are li,ely to be of any shape. ;any of the
cycles we find in figures of social and natural science phenoena( howe.er( are syetrical.
/eha.ior of this sort would be e*traordinarily difficult to find in chance fluctuations. 9a.e shape
thus gi.es us a ninth criterion of significance.
6lthough the shape of the .arious wa.es can soeties be seen by inspection of a chart of the
data( a ore accurate representation is obtained by a.eraging together a nuber of wa.es. This
is the process used by the eteorologists to find the typical shape of the a.erage annual
teperature or rainfall cycles. The sae principle can be used to find the shape of a $.%year cycle(
a $.#H=onth cycle( or a cycle of any other length.
Figure H shows the a.erage shape of the @1=year cycle in cotton prices.

Fig. H: 6 T7'IC68 96FE S56'E
The chart shows the a.erage @1=year cycle in
cotton prices.
<ot all non=chance cycles are
syetrical. 6s we ha.e seen( the @#=
onth cycle in pig iron production rate=
of=change goes up fast( goes down
slowly( as do the .ariations in sunspots.
So do the light cur.es of .ariable stars
>Figure $?. 6 syetrical shape is not a
necessary attribute of significance. It is
erely an added criterion which( when
present( can be used to help to
distinguish between chance and non=
chance rhyths.
;6T5E;6TIC68 TESTS
There are .arious atheatical tests
that can be applied to tell how any
tries would be necessary with rando
nubers to get a cycle as good as the
one under obser.ation. There are faults
that can be found with all of these
tests( but this is not the place to discuss
the. <otwithstanding their faults( the
tests are often useful( at least in a
coparati.e way( to indicate which one
of two cycles is the ore significant.
Figure #2 charts the $.1=year cycle in
stoc, prices( 4.S.6.( fro #HG@ through

Fig. #2: 6< ED6;'8E +F 6 C7C8E +F 5IC5 ;6T5E;6TIC68 SIC<IFIC6<CE
The chart shows the $.1=year cycle in coon stoc, prices( after reo.al of trend( #HG@=
#$%%( together with a rigid $.1=year periodicity. 6ccording to the /artels test( a cycle of this
doinance( this regularity( and this nuber of repetitions could not be the result of chance
ore often than once in 0(222 ties.

Fig. $: T5E 8IC5T=C4RFE +F 6 T7'IC68
CE'5EID F6RI6/8E
<ote the rapid rise in briIiance followed( each
tie( by a ore gradual decline.
The cur.e of the successi.e wa.es in the .arying
briliance of this star is .ery regular and e.en. +n
the other hand( the a.erage cur.e of the @1=year
cycle in cotton prices is not so sooth.
<e.ertheless( the typical !ig!ag shape of the cycle
in cotton prices is Auite apparent. The cotton price
a.erage cycle has not been anipulated or
soothed in any way( other than by the a.erage
>after trend reo.al?.
#$%%( after the reo.al of trend. 6ccording to a test of significance de.eloped by the late Dr.
"ulius /artels of the Carnegie Institution of 9ashington( a cycle as doinant( as regular( and as
repetiti.e as this one could not be found in rando nubers ore often than once in 0(222 ties.
6 RES4;E
4p to this point we ha.e been discussing the #2 criteria( each of which helps us to decide( for the
rhyth in any one series of figures considered by itself whether or not the rhyth is the result of
chance. Is the pattern there erely by coincidence =or does the pattern ha.e a causeK 9e do not
need to ,now what the cause is( but if the pattern is not rando there ust be one.
The ten criteria that we ay use to help throw light on the significance of a cycle in a single series
of figures are: #.? Is the cycle doinantK Does it pre.ail o.er randos and other cyclesK 1.? Is it
regularK That is( does it repeat tie after tie with a beat=with rhythK Is it sufficiently regularK
G.? 5as it repeated enough tiesK The deterination of 3ust how any ties is )enough) depends
of course upon the cycle doinance( the cycle regularity( and other factors. @.? 5ow constant is its
period >a.erage cycle length?K Cycles of rando origin do not hold to a fi*ed period wa.e after
wa.e( century after century. Significant cycles do. 0.? 6fter distortion( does the cycle reassert
itself in step with the tiing it had before the distortionK If the cycle does this( it is .ery hard to
belie.e that the beha.ior is chance. %.? Does the cycle persist throughout changed conditionsK
Does the cycle control( or do circustancesK &.? Does the cycle ,eep on coing true after
disco.ery( or when its period is postulated as a result of basic cycle ,nowledgeK H.? Do two or
ore cyclic patterns pretty well describe after=unfolded or after disco.ered dataK $.? 6re wa.e
shapes( indi.idually or on the a.erage( of a non=rando nature( e.g. sooth( or syetricalK
#2.? Do atheatical tests confir soe or all of the abo.e criteriaK
Eeep in ind that all we ha.e been discussing so far are soe criteria for 3udging the probability
that the cycles in a particular tie series are or are not the result of chance. 6ny one of these
criteria( e*cept perhaps doinance and wa.e shape( can be used by itself( but of course the ore
criteria that apply to any gi.en beha.ior( the greater the probability that the beha.ior= the
rhyth( or the cycle present on the a.erage = is not the result of chance. 6t this point we do not
care whether the cycle will ,eep on coing true( or is any good for forecasting( or is the result of
dynaics( feedbac,( predator=prey( or e*ternal forces. The Auestion is erely( )Is the regularity
accidental or is there soe cause for itK)
It should be clear fro e.en the few illustrations gi.en that there are at least soe cycles so
doinant( so regular( so repetitious( and so persistent that they cannot reasonably be the result of
chance.
If space peritted( it would be easy to suppleent these illustrations with scores=e.en hundreds=
of additional e*aples. The single graphic e*aple gi.en should suffice to deonstrate each
criterion. These criteria ha.e dealt with the indi.idual cycle under consideration. That any
particular cycle is significant can thus be self=e.ident( if it eets these criteria.
EDTER<68
EFIDE<CE +F SIC<IFIC6<CE
8et us now turn to a consideration of additional criteria that becoe a.ailable to us if we engage
in what is ,nown as coparati.e cycle study.
For the ost part( coparati.e cycle study in.ol.es studying cycles of the sae length >period? in
different phenoena. 6s we shall see( the presence of cycles of the sae period( turning at the
sae tie( e.idencing the sae shape and geographical distribution( pro.ide not only additional
e.idence of non=randoness( but ta,e us a considerable distance toward the disco.ery of cause.
8et us now consider the eight additional criteria of significance that can be obtained by studying
cycles coparati.ely. These additional criteria are: ##.? Cycles of the sae period are found in
any different phenoena. This is a circustance that would be .ery hard to reproduce by
chance. The suggestion is that the cycles in.ol.ed ay be interrelated or ay be the result of a
coon cause. #1.? 6ll the cycles of the sae period so far studied turn at about the sae
calendar tie. This synchrony cannot reasonably e*ist with rando or unrelated cycles. #G.? The
iplications of correspondences of period and tiing are greatly increased when soe of the
cycles with the sae period can be shown to be nonchance in their own right. #@.? Cycles of the
sae period in different phenoena ha.e been found to ha.e the sae shape. 5ere again( such
beha.ior suggests interrelationship or coon cause. #0.? Cycles of the sae period( regardless
of phenoenon( e.idence geographical pattern. They crest later and later as found fro the north
pole toward the eAuator. 6 pattern of this sort could not arise easily by chance. #%.? 6 further
non=chance characteristic of cycles of the sae period in different phenoena is that the
geographical patterns 3ust referred to are distorted in uch the sae way that agnetic
declination patterns are distorted. #&.? 6 coplete spectru of alleged cycle periods concentrates
at particular points instead of e.idencing a reasonably e.en distribution. If the cycle periods were
randos( they would scatter. #H.? 6nd finally( there appear to be failies of cycle lengths. Cycle
periods are often related to each other by siple arithetic ratios.
8et us now e*aine each of these points in detail.
IDE<TIT7 +F C7C8E 'ERI+DS
It is hard to find cycles in rando nubers( but it can be done. 8et us ta,e 122 rando nubers(
rearrange the #22 ties( and pic, the best cycle we can find in any of these arrangeents.
Suppose that in one of these #22 arrangeents we find a fairly good cycle and that its period is
&.# ters. <e*t we can a,e #22 ore arrangeents of these >or soe other? rando nubers
and loo, for the cycles in the second one hundred tries. 8et us say we find a fairly good cycle in
one of these second #22 tries( and that this second cycle is #@.H ters long. 9ith a coplete
assortent of periods to loo, for it would be aa!ing if any significant cycle in the second #22
tries turned out to ha.e e*actly the sae period=&.# ters=as the cycle that was found in the first
#22 tries.
Con.ersely( if( in two series of real figures( we do find cycles of identical period( it suggests that
one of the beha.iors is the cause of the other( or that both are the result of a coon cause. That
is( that at least one of the beha.iors is not rando( but is caused.
9hat applies to two series of figures applies with uch greater force to three series of figures( or
to four( or fi.e( or si*.
There is a danger in this reasoning that ust be called to your attention: 9ith hundreds of cycles
that ha.e been alleged in all sorts of phenoena it would be rear,able if there were not soe
correspondences of period. 5owe.er( these atters are relati.e. Enowing the nuber of
allegations of period to which one has access( it is easy to calculate how often aong these
periods one could ha.e the sae period in ore than one phenoenon by chance alone.
Siilarly( one can calculate the probability of finding( by chance( the sae cycle in two( fi.e( or
twenty phenoena. +f course( the ore phenoena that e.idence the sae cycle( the greater the
probability that the beha.ior is not chance.
In point of fact( we often do find periods coon to any phenoena. Consider for e*aple the
$.%=year cycle( of which G2 e*aples are listed in Table G.
It is inconcei.able that all these .arious beha.iors could be characteri!ed by cycles of the sae
period by chance alone. There ust be interrelationships or a coon cause.
This identity of period of cycles in different phenoena is true for any periods other than the
$.%=year one( but( as said before( space prohibits gi.ing ore than one e*aple for each point to
be ade.
S7<C5R+<7 +F C7C8E '56SE
Cycles of the sae period tend to turn at about the sae calendar tie. For e*aple refer to
Figure ## which shows by eans of little nubered dots the current ideal tiing of the #H #/G=
year cycles that ha.e been disco.ered in .arious phenoena. These dots cluster around a ean at
#$%1.2 Reeber that these dots do not represent the actual ties of crest of the #H.1=year
cycles. They represent the ideal ties of crest. They are the ties of crest illustrated by the
bro,en !ig!ag lines to which you ha.e becoe accustoed in the pre.ious charts.
These ideal tiings can be charted at #H.1=year inter.als as far into the future or into the past as
one ight desire. I ha.e replotted the around a ean at #$@G.H( #H.1 years pre.ious.
The purpose of charting the ideal tiing of these #H.1=year cycles is to illustrate the way in which
cycles of the sae period turn at about the sae tie. This is non=rando beha.ior. Si*teen
T6/8E G: C7C8ES 688ECED T+ /E $.% +R $ 1/G 7E6RS I< 8E<CT5 I<
<6T4R68 6<D S+CI68 SCIE<CE '5E<+;E<6
Science 'henoenon 'eriod in 7ears
;aa logy Coyote 6bundance( Canada $ 1/G
Fisher 6bundance( Canada $ 1/G
8yn* 6bundance( Canada $.%
;arten 6bundance( Canada $ 1/G
;in, 6bundance( Canada $ 1 /G
;us,rat 6bundance( Canada $.%
Rabbit 6bundance( <orth 6erica $.%
9ildlife( Canada $.%
Ichthyology Salon Catches( Canada $.%
Salon 6bundance( England $.%
+rnithology Crouse 6bundance( Canada $.%
5aw, 6bundance( Canada $.%
+wl 6bundance( Canada $.%
'artridge 6bundance( Canada and 4. S. $.%
Entoology Caterpillar >Tent? 6bundance( <ew "ersey $ 1/G
Chinch /ug 6bundance( Illinois $.%
Tic, 6bundance( Canada $.%
Dendrochronology Tree=Ring 9idths( 6ri!ona $.%
6gronoy 9heat 6creage( 4. S. 6. $.%
Cliatology +!one Content of 6tosphere( 8ondon and 'aris $ 1/G
'recipitation( 9orldwide $.%
Stor Trac, Shifts( <orth 6erica $.%
4=;agnetic Falue $.%
5ydrology Run=off( Rihand and Sone Ri.ers( India $ 1/G
;edicine Disease Incidence >5uan 5eart? <ew England $ 1/G
Disease Incidence >Tulareia? Canada $.%
Sociology 9ar >International /attles? $.%
Econoics Cotton 'rices( 4. S. 6. $.%0
Financial Crises( Creat /ritain $.%
beans scattered at rando o.er a charting of an #H.1=year span of tie would not bunch to this
e*tent( e*cept once in a great( great any ties.
Incidentally( these particular probabilities cannot be easured atheatically without the
assuption that all the crests or turning points should coe at e*actly the sae tie. 5owe.er(
this assuption is false. It is easy to see why. The sae e*ternal cause=if that is what is operati.e
here=will affect one phenoenon first( then another( then another( in the sae way that flowers
bloo in successi.e parts of the #1=onth seasonal pattern. In fact( an identical cyclic force=let us
say winter=will a,e soe things( such as the sales of fur coats( reach a pea,: the sales of other
things( such as the sales of ice crea( reach a trough.
Siilar diagras can be ade for the tiing of all the other cycles that ha.e identical periods. 6s
far as this has been done( all cycles of the sae period tend to turn at the sae calendar tie.
For e*aple( refer to Figure #1 which gi.es the concentration of such of the $.%=year cycles as
Fig. ##: 6< ED6;'8E +F C7C8E S7<C5R+<7
This diagra shows( by eans of nubered dots( the ideal tie of turning of #H.1=year
cycles in #% different phenoena. >The .ertical differences of the dots ha.e no significance.?
<ote the tendency of the dots to cluster about a ean at #$%1.2
These dots are repeated #H.1 years earlier( clustering at #$@G.H to show the e*tent of the
synchrony. If the tiing were rando the dots representing the tiing of the #H.1=year
cycles would fall hapha!ardly at any place between any two .ertical lines #H.1 years apart.
8ECE<D
#. ;arriages in St. 8ouis
1. <ile Floods
G. Sales of an Industrial Copany
@. Iigration
0. Sunspots >alternate cycles re.ersed?
%. Industrial Stoc, 'rices
&. Construction in 5aburg
H. Real Estate 6cti.ity
$. Sales of a 'ublic 4tility Copany
#2. 'ig Iron
##. 8oans and Discounts
#1. ;any Industrial Copanies
#G. Residential /uilding
#@. 'anics
#0. /uilding Construction
#%. "a.a Tree Rings
<+TE: ;any phenoena show se.eral cycles concurrently.
ha.e been tied.
These facts of identity of period and synchrony of tiing e*plain why( in connection with the
analysis of 8a,e Sa,i .ar.es( it was possible to postulate the e*istence of a #& #/G=year cycle
without e.en loo,ing at the figures.
+ne can con3ecture that there are e*ternal en.ironental forces that play upon all phenoena(
3ust as light of all colors plays upon all things. If so( any phenoena ay respond to any of
these forces siultaneously( but ore strongly to soe than to others.
Cycles with periods of #& #/G years ha.e been found in any phenoena. 9hen found( they all
turn at about the sae tie. 6 cyclic eleent of this period can therefore be assued to be real.
If real( a #& #/G=year cycle ight be present( e.en if wea,ly( in any series of figures( and ight
be detectable in those instances where the series is long enough to eliinate other cycles of
nearby period. For the #& #/G=year cycle( this would reAuire $% cycles( or about #(%02 years of
data. 6s these were a.ailable( I .entured to guess that this cycle ight be present in these
figures( and it pro.ed to be so.
8ECE<D

#. /aroetric 'ressure( 'aris
1. Rabbit >Snowshoe? 6bundance( Canada
G. Tree=Ring 9idths( 6ri!ona
@. 4=;agnetic Falue
0. 9heat 6creage 5ar.ested( 4. S. 6.
%. 9heat 'rices( Europe
&. Chinch /ug 6bundance( Illinois
H. Salon 6bundance( Canada
$. 9ar >International /attles?
#2. 8yn* 6bundance( Canada
##. Salon 6bundance( England
#1. Tent Caterpillar 6bundance( <ew "ersey
#G. +!one Content of 6tosphere(
8ondon and 'aris
#@. 5eart Disease( <ew England
#0. Rainfall( 8ondon
#%. 'recipitation( @0 Stations( 9orldwide
#&. Coyote 6bundance( Canada
#H. ;arten 6bundance( Canada
#$. ;in, 6bundance( Canada
12. ;us,rat 6bundance( Canada
1#. Run=off( Rihand Ri.er( India
The fact that a cycle is present o.er so long a period of tie a,es it possible to easure its
period with considerable e*actness.
SIC<IFIC6<CE +F RE86TED C7C8ES
6 corollary of the abo.e criteria >identity of period and correspondence of tiing? is this: anything
which( fro internal e.idence( increases the significance of any one of the cycles in a group of
cycles ha.ing identical period and corresponding phase( increases the significance of all the
others.

Fig. #G: DI6CR6; T+ S5+9 T5E H=7E6R C7C8E 6S F6RI+4S87 688ECED >continued ne*t page?
For e*aple( suppose se.eral rather short series of figures all show @=year cycles. Each cycle( in a
way( bolsters each of the others. /ut suppose the @=year cycle in one series of figures has been
present for 122 years=for 02 repetitions. This one @=year cycle cannot reasonably be the result of
chance. There is( therefore( a non=chance force to which at least soe of the other @=year cycles
ay be conforing.
Refer now to Figure #G which diagras the H=year cycle as alleged in each of #G different
phenoena. The G #/1 repetitions of an H=year cycle in Coodyear Tire @t Rubber Copany sales
could easily ha.e coe about by chance( but the 1# repetitions in pig iron prices are significant in
their own right. This fact adds credibility to the idea that the H=year Coodyear Tire L Rubber
Copany sales cycle ay be significant( too. The fact that the H=year Coodyear cycle crests at
Figure #G continued fro pre.ious page.
about the sae tie that the pig iron price cycle crests >and all the other H=year cycles crest?
adds to its credibility.
<ote that lyn* abundance is listed as ha.ing an H=year cycle( whereas pre.iously it was listed as
ha.ing a $.%=year cycle. The H=year cycle appears as a inor secondary cycle in the lyn* figures
after an ad3ustent is ade to reo.e the effect of the $.%=year cycle. 8yn* figures pro.ide
another e*aple of a phenoenon that acts as if it were sub3ect to ore than one cyclic force
siultaneously.
IDE<TIT7 +F C7C8E S56'E
The shapes of cycles of the sae period are soeties identical( 3ust as their periods and
calendar tiings are identical. This is another characteristic that could not easily be the result of
chance.
Consider Figure #@ which shows the a.erage shape of the #&.G=year cycle in the thic,ness and
thinness of the 8a,e Sa,i .ar.es fro 11$# /.C. to 6.D. #H%$( and the #&.G=year cycle in the flood
stages of the Ri.er <ile( fro %11 to #$%1. <ote in each instance a fi.efold serration( due .ery
possibly to the concurrent presence( in both series of figures( of a shorter cycle.
CE+CR6'5IC68 '6TTER<
Insofar as the sub3ect has been studied( cycles of the sae period will crest later and later as their
occurrence is closer and closer fro at least the north pole to the eAuator. In other words( the
greater the pro*iity to the eAuator( the later the crest. This beha.ior has becoe ,nown as
latitudinal passage. The change is phase aounts to about &2M of the cycle period in $2N.
Thus( a #2=year cycle which( in one thing( crested at the pole "anuary #$%2 would crest in another
thing at the eAuator in "anuary #$%&. 6t north latitude @02( halfway between pole and eAuator( it
would crest G #/1 years after the tie at the pole( or id=#$%G.
Consider Figure #0 which shows the tiing of .arious @.1=year cycles in weather( tree=rings and
other phenoena plotted according to latitude. 6 definite drift fro left to right fro the north
pole( and perhaps fro the south pole too( to the eAuator is diagraed by the hea.y bro,en
lines.

Fig. #@: T5E S56'ES +F C7C8ES +F T5E
S6;E 'ERI+D I< DIFFERE<T
'5E<+;E<6
The chart shows( by Cur.e 6( the a.erage shape
of the #&.G1G=year cycle in .ar.e thic,nesses at
8a,e Sa,i for the @(#%2=year span 11$# /.C. =
6.D. #H%$( and by Cur.e / what sees to be the
sae cycle in the Flood Stages of the Ri.er <ile
for the #(G@#=year span( %11=#$%1.
<ote the identity of wa.e shape( e.en to the
serrations.
5ere again we ha.e ordered( systeatic beha.ior( inconsistent with the idea of chance or
randoness. Cycles that e.idence geographical pattern are hard to reconcile with ere
happenstance.
;6C<ETIC DIST+RTI+<
6lthough( regardless of period( cycles do see to crest later and later as found nearer and nearer
to the eAuator( this beha.ior is sub3ect to a certain aount of distortion. For e*aple( consider
the @.1=year cycle. If isopleths are drawn to show the actual dates of crest of this cycle in a
.ariety of phenoena >See Figure #%? we find certain irregularities. These irregularities
correspond ore or less to the so=called )landass) distortions of the declinations of the copass
needle( but this correspondence ay be ere coincidence. See Figure #&.

Fig. #0: 6< ED6;'8E +F 86TIT4DI<68 '6SS6CE
The diagra shows the a.erage ideal tiing of lows of @.1=year cycles in teperature
records( and other phenoena at a .ariety of north and south latitudes.
The .ertical scale represents latitude. <ubered circles refer to teperature lows. 8ettered
circles refer to cycles in other phenoena. Solid lettered circles refer to highs.
<ote the tendency of epochs to fall later and later as found fro the north pole( and perhaps
the south pole too( toward the eAuator. The slippage aounts to about &2M of the length of
the cycle in $22. This tendency was disco.ered by Dr. 8eonard 9. 9ing( and is called
)8atitudinal 'assage.)

Fig. #%: 6< ED6;'8E +F CE+8+CIC68 DIST+RTI+< +F C7C8E TI;I<C
8ines drawn on world aps to show ties of teperature cycle highs. The typical tie of
high for the @.1=year cycle appears on this ap. The dates attached at the wa.y hori!ontal
lines show that cycle highs appear first in the polar regions and that they coe later and
later as we find the nearer to the eAuator. This beha.ior is called )latitudinal passage.)
The lines bend toward the eAuator in !ones as shown by the hea.y bro,en lines. This eans
that in these !ones( the crests of the cycle o.e eAuatorward ahead of the rest of the globe.
It is an effect which ay be related to landass. Siilar beha.ior can be noted in agnetic
.ariation. >See Figure #&?
Fig. #&: 9+R8D ;6' +F ;6C<ETIC DEC8I<6TI+<
The .ariation of the copass fro true north >declination? shows an influence of landasses
upon terrestrial agnetis. +n this ap( we ha.e placed bro,en lines to indicate the !ones
of !ero declination( e*cept in 6frica where it ar,s a !one of iniu relati.e .ariation. The
siilarity of position between these lines and the bro,en lines of Figure #% is pro.ocati.e.
Fig. #&: 9+R8D ;6' +F ;6C<ETIC DEC8I<6TI+<
The .ariation of the copass fro true north >declination? shows an influence of landasses
upon terrestrial agnetis. +n this ap( we ha.e placed bro,en lines to indicate the !ones
of !ero declination( e*cept in 6frica where it ar,s a !one of iniu relati.e .ariation. The
siilarity of position between these lines and the bro,en lines of Figure #% is pro.ocati.e.

Fig. #H: 6< ED6;'8E +F T5E F6CT T56T C7C8E 'ERI+DS C84STER 6T
CERT6I< 8E<CT5S I< 6 <+<R6<D+; 967
The chart shows( by half=yearly groupings( the nuber of econoic cycles of .arious periods.
The tendency of any cycles to fall at certain periods and .ery few cycles to fall at other
periods could not occur reasonably in a chance distribution of cycle lengths.
The data were ta,en fro the C6T68+C4E +F C7C8ES( '6RT I( EC+<+;ICS( published by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles. This catalogue abstracts the description of #(@2@
econoic cycles as alleged in #0# sorts of econoic phenoena by G1& different authors.
C7C8E 'ERI+DS C84STER
If cycle periods were rando and unrelated( and if we were to list these periods by order of
length( we would get a fairly sooth distribution. For instance( we would get about as any #0=
year cycles as #%=year cycles( or #&=year cycles or #H=year cycles. /ut when we a,e the actual
e*perient we do not get such an e.en distribution. Refer to Figure #H which charts by half=yearly
inter.als the length of all cycle periods listed in the Catalogue of Cycles = 'art # = Econoics. <ote
the une.en and non=rando distribution of periods.
It is clear that soething causes this clustering. It is as if there were certain rhythic forces = for
e*aple G #/1 years( % years( #H years =to which phenoena tend to confor. It is >is if there
were no such forces at #@ years( #$ years( or 1# years.
The distribution of cycle periods is certainly non rando( but e*ternal cyclic forces are not
necessarily the cause of the concentration. The clustering ay well be( at least in part( the result
of a disco.ery by one in.estigator which was copied by others. +r it ight be the result of a cycle
in soe doinant industry that spread to other industries. 9e ust be on our guard against hasty
e*planations( but the obser.ed concentration of cycle periods is indeed pro.ocati.e.
F6;I8IES +F C7C8ES
There is e.idence that there are failies of cycle periods. That is( if you find a cycle period of one
length in one thing >or se.eral things?( you will often find a cycle period in soe other thing or
things that is e*actly twice as long. Then you will find another period in another thing=or things=
e*actly twice as long as that.
This double progression( as it is called( wor,s downward as well as upward. Starting with the origi
nal cycle period you will find periods half as long( a Auarter as long( an eighth as long( and so on.
6long with double progression you will find triple progression. Cycles with periods three ties as
long( nine ties as long( twenty=se.en ties as long( and so on: and( going downward( one third(
one ninth( one twenty=se.enth( and so on.
These beha.iors create failies o/ cycles( all related to each other by siple nuerical
relationships. 6n e*aple of one such faily is shown by Figure #$. In this figure the double
progression relationships slant( top to botto( fro left to right. The triple progression
relationships slant( top to botto( fro right to left. +f the 1@ possible periods based upward and
downward with #&.&0 years as a base( fro .11 years to @&$.G years( #H ha.e been disco.ered
and % are still issing.
Figure #$ is suppleented by Table @ which naes the actual phenoena and the periods
alleged.
There are two arguents against attaching iportance to any such nuerical arrangeents. The
first is that so any cycles ha.e been disco.ered that it
should be fairly easy to find at least one e*aple near alost any length you ight wish. The
second arguent is that any cycle periods ha.e been easured so crudely that it is not possible
to say with any assurance that any one cycle period is e*actly twice or e*actly three ties soe
other one.
The first arguent can be et by trying soe other progression such as fi.e or se.en. 7ou will
find that it is not as easy as you ight thin, to find predeterined periods unless you use the
factors of 1 and G.
The second arguent is harder to refute. 9e do not ,now with absolute assurance the true
periods of any e*cept astronoical cycles and the cycles of physics. 9e ay ha.e cycles that
see to be & I/1 years long and other cycles that see to be #0 years long( but ore e*act
easureent ay show the & O=year cycle to be &.@0 years long and the #0=year cycle to be
#0.#2 years long. In such a case there is of course no siple # to 1 relationship.
;uch ore needs to be done before we can ,now for certain that failies of cycles do e*ist. In the
eantie( the seeing presence of such relationships does add a odicu of strength to the idea
that in dealing with cycles we are not dealing with chance beha.ior( but rather with an aspect of
the 4ni.erse that is ordered and structured.
To these eighteen criteria we ight add perhaps another=coon sense. Cycle study is not yet
wholly a science. It is still soething of an art.

S4;;6R7
The preceding te*t( charts( diagras( and tables ha.e been designed to pro.ide soe criteria that
can be used to e.aluate the significance of cyclic beha.ior. 6pplications of these criteria show that
at least soe of the cycles that we find on e.ery side cannot reasonably be the result of chance.
The thesis is that soe cycles beside the daily( yearly( and tidal cycles are caused by soething(
e.en if we do not ,now( as yet( what this soething is =or these soethings are.
;y e*position would ha.e been uch ore effecti.e if( instead of liiting y e*aples to one
each( I had shown all ,nown e*aples of each of the #H different criteria. Space liitations
pre.ented this because( altogether( there would ha.e been se.eral hundred. The e*aples
presented( therefore( are a .ery sall saple of the ultitude which e*ist.
C64SE
It would see to be clear that at least soe of the rhythic cycles cannot easily be the result of
chance. This stateent also applies to cycles present on the a.erage in each successi.e part of a
series of figures. If not chance( the obser.ed pattern ust( by definition( ha.e a cause.
Reeber that we are not now tal,ing about the cause of the phenomenon( but the cause of the
pattern. This difference is soeties not clearly understood. For e*aple( once when I was
tal,ing with a .icepresident of a large steel corporation( I showed hi the chart deonstrating the
draatic @#=onth cycle in the production of pig iron fro #$22 up to the date of our
con.ersation=#1 upturns( ## downturns( as shown abo.e in Figure 0 in rate=of=change data.
)7es() he said. )6nd I ,now what caused e.ery one of the.)
There is a lot of fol,lore in business and I ta,e the stateent of his oniscience with a grain of
salt( but let us not Auibble. 8et us adit that he did ,now( in e.ery instance( the iediate cause
of each up and each down. 9hat he did not ,now was why these 1G different causes were all
separated fro one another at such .ery regular inter.als=in a a3ority of instances within three
or four onths one way or the other fro perfect tiing. Such regularity cannot reasonably be the
result of chance. Soething different fro 1G separate e.ents ust ha.e caused =the regularity
with which these e.ents befell.
The causes or apparent causes of separate up and down otions of things are legion( but the
causes of non=chance rhythic pattern can be grouped con.eniently into two ain categories
=internal causes and e*ternal causes.
I<TER<68 C64SES +F R57T5;
Internal or endogenous causes can( on their part( be subdi.ided into those that are inherent in the
phenoenon itself and those that are inherent in the interacting syste of which the phenoenon
is an integral part. The first sort of cause is ,nown as dynaic( the second is called feedbac, or
predator=prey.
D7<6;IC C64SES +F R57T5;
Dynaic causes are well illustrated by a weight suspended by a wea, coil spring. +nce this
syste is set in otion( the weight will go up and down in a rhythic fashion. 5ere the cause is
pure dynaics = the nature of the weight=spring=gra.ity cobination itself. Siilarly( prices ay
get too high: then( 3ust because they are too high( fall bac, and get too low. Then( 3ust because
they are too low( they rise( and so on( indefinitely.
FEED/6CE 6S 6 C64SE
Feedbac, is illustrated by a therostat=furnace lin,up. In such a syste( as you ,now( when the
air in the roo gets cool the therostat clic,s( the furnace goes on: the roo gets hot( the
therostat goes off: the roo gets too cool( and the cycle repeats. <ote that in each case the
actions are self=defeating( as it were. The going on of the furnace sets in otion a train of e.ents
which ultiately shuts it off: and .ice .ersa. The echanis is ore coplicated than siple
dynaics in that there are two >or ore? interacting parts to the syste instead of only one.
4nder conditions of reasonable unifority = closed doors and windows and reasonably constant
e*ternal teperatures( let us say = the regularity of the going on and shutting off of the furnace
can be .ery constant o.er any repetitions.
'RED6T+R='RE7 C64SES +F R57T5;
Siilar to feedbac, are what are ,nown as predator=prey relationships. In such an ecological
syste the predator o.er,ills: the prey largely disappear: the predators star.e: their absence
gi.es the prey population a chance to reco.er: the increase of food gi.es the predator its chance
at reco.ery: it does reco.er: and the cycle repeats. 5ere also the tie inter.als between ties of
superabundance can be( under constant conditions( .ery regular indeed.
Dynaics( feedbac,( and predator=prey relationships are all called )free oscillations.) They are
undoubtedly the cause of soe of the rhythic cycles that ha.e been obser.ed. /ut in any
instances this e*planation will not suffice. For e*aple( internally caused >endogenous? rhyth
will not e.idence geographical pattern or landass distortion( will not ha.e the sae period in
different phenoena >especially in unrelated phenoena?( will not synchroni!e( and( after a
distortion( will not norally resue in phase with the pattern e.idenced prior to the distortion. In
all these instances( and in other instances where no dynaic( feedbac,( or predator=prey
relationship can be disco.ered( we are forced to loo, for an e*ternal >e*ogenous? rhythic cause.
EDTER<68 C64SES +F R57T5;
The phrase )e*ternally caused rhyths) refers to those patterns where the rhyth in the
phenoenon is the direct result of a rhyth in soe other phenoenon. E*ternally caused
rhyths are ,nown as )forced oscillations.)
6 failiar e*aple is the 1@=hour alternation of light and dar, created by the tie it ta,es the
earth to a,e one rotation relati.e to the sun. 6nother e*aple is the #1=onth cycle of air
teperature caused by the re.olution of the earth around the sun. 6 third e*aple is pro.ided by
the tides which norally are forced by the gra.itational pull of the oon into a #1 G/@=hour
pattern.
<ote that in a forced or e*ogenous cycle the cause of the cycle is a rhyth or periodicity e*ternal
to the phenoenon( or to the syste of which the phenoenon is a part. 5owe.er( as illustrated
by the e*aple of the tides( the causati.e rhyth or periodicity need not ha.e the sae period as
the resultant rhyth.
The ere fact that the cause is e*ternal to the phenoenon e.idencing the rhythic beha.ior
does not necessarily a,e the rhythic beha.ior a forced cycle. The wind blowing on dry sand
a,es beautiful rhythic patterns( but they are not what are ,nown as )forced rhyths) because
the wind is not a rhythic force. In contrast( consider the wa.es in sand created by the lugs on
the trac,s of a caterpillar tractor. Such rhyths are truly forced.
Forced rhyths are .ery iportant for two reasons: +ne( they can teach us of inter=
phenoenonal relationships that ight otherwise not be disco.ered. Two( they lead us to a
,nowledge of hitherto un,nown en.ironental forces( if such forces e*ist. 8et us consider these
two possibilities in order.
I<TER='5E<+;E<68 RE86TI+<S5I'S
6n industry I could nae is doinated by two large copanies. Copany 6 ,nows industry sales
fro go.ernent reports. Subtracting its own sales it can get the sales of Copany /(
appro*iately. Cycle analyses of the sales of Copany 6 and of Copany / show the sae
rhyths for each copany e*cept that the sales of Copany / show an #H #/@=year cycle not
apparent in the sales of Copany 6. This fact suggested to Copany 6 that Copany / had large
sales to an industry doinated by an #H #/@=year cycle. Copany 6 was thus put on notice of the
possible e*istence of a ar,et to which it was not selling( or at least the iportance of which it
had underestiated.
6nother e*aple is pro.ided by a cycle analysis of the inde* of international battles. This inde*
shows a nuber of cycles freAuently present in econoic phenoena along with one found only in
biological and cliatological phenoena. These facts suggest the possibility that international
conflict ay ha.e both econoic and biological and/or cliatological causes.
6 third e*aple: there is a cycle in the abundance of o!one in the atosphere that corresponds to
a cycle that has been found in deaths fro heart disease. This fact suggests the possibility that
the presence of atospheric o!one ay ha.e soething to do with the incidence of heart disease.
It should be clearly understood that identity of rhyth in no way pro.es an interrelationship. The
correspondence of period and e.en the correspondence of calendar tiing of the tops and bottos
of the two cycles ay be Auite accidental( or ay be the result of an e*ternal cause coon to
both phenoena. Identity of rhyth per se is erely suggesti.e.
F+RCED FS. D7<6;IC +R FEED/6CE C7C8ES
4p to now we ha.e been trying to a,e the point that at least soe cycles are statistically
significant = that is( that they cannot reasonably be the result of chance. /y now this fact should
be abundantly clear. If a hundred e*aples had been gi.en=as would ha.e been possible( space
peritting=we ight consider the point pro.en.
9hene.er they are not the result of chance( these rhythic cycles ust ha.e dynaic( feedbac,(
predator=prey or e*ogenous causes.
5ow can we distinguish between dynaic( feedbac, and predator=prey causes on the one hand
and e*ogenous or e*ternal forces on the otherK
9ith stable surroundings we can easily iagine great regularity and any repetitions as a result
of purely internal forces. Dynaic( and feedbac,( and predator=prey forces( too( can ha.e great
doinance. They could also ha.e syetrical shape and show thesel.es to be highly significant
atheatically. 6nd why notK They are not chance phenoena. They are significant.
Dynaic( feedbac,( or predator=prey cycles can also be e*pected to continue after disco.ery. They
are perfectly real cycles with a cause. 9hy wouldn-t they continue as long as the cause continuesK
It will be harder for a dynaic( feedbac,( or predator=prey cycle to retain e*actly the sae period
o.er a long span of tie( but e.en this is not ipossible. I suspect that sunspot nubers( for
instance( ay be dynaic or feedbac,: yet( on the a.erage( they ha.e retained Auite a consistent
period since about the year #01H.
This lea.es us only two criteria fro internal e.idence alone to 3udge whether or not the cycle is
forced fro outside: +ne( does it continue unchanged through changed conditionsK I f the cycle is
not changed by changed en.ironental conditions it is alost certainly forced. Two( after a
distortion( does the cycle return to the pattern that pre.ailed before the distortionK Stop a
pendulu. Then start it swinging again. The rhyth will resue( but not in phase( e*cept
occasionally by chance in case you ha.e held the pendulu the precise period of a wa.e( or soe
ultiple of this period. +r( open wide the windows of the roo whose heat is controlled by a
therostat. +r roc, an anial population by soe calaity e*ternal to the predator=prey
relationship. In none of these instances will the resuption of the cycle ordinarily be in phase.
9here we ha.e a return to the old pattern after a distortion we are alost certain to be obser.ing
a forced or e*ogenously caused cycle.
The situation becoes Auite different when we consider the e.idence produced by coparati.e
cycle study. That is why our ,nowledge of the basic iportance of rhythic fluctuations ne.er
really flowered until >in #$@2? coparati.e cycle study was launched as a separate discipline.
Fi.e of the characteristics of cycles re.ealed by coparati.e cycle study well nigh deand the
e*istence of e*ternal forces for their e*planation. 8et us consider these fi.e eleents in order.
Cycle 'eriods Cluster
4nless there were e*ternal forces operating( the cycle periods( by the lows of chance( would fall
into a reasonably sooth distribution. They don-t. Therefore( unless there has been artificial
selection on the part of the in.estigators the causes of such of these cycles as are not rando
ust be e*ternal.
+f course the cause could be one of the series that participated in the clustering. 5owe.er( for all
the other series the cause would be e*ternal.
Identity of 'eriod
Identity of period in.ol.es e*ternal forces = unless these identities of period ha.e coe about by
chance. This is a atter which( in any gi.en instance( can be e.aluated by ta,ing into account the
total nuber of periods that ha.e been alleged( and the precision with which the .arious periods
ha.e been easured( the nuber of cycles that ha.e the gi.en period( and the nuber of
different periods that ha.e ultiple representation.
Cycle Synchrony
Cycle synchrony=the turning at about the sae tie of all the cycles of the sae period=as
another characteristic that siply could not happen if each cycle were an indi.idual isolated
beha.ior. 4nless one cycle caused all the others( or soething e*ternal to all caused all of the( it
would be ost unli,ely for all of the to turn together. ;oreo.er it is not only all the cycles of one
period that do this( but it is all the cycles of any period( insofar as this atter has been studied.
>;atheatics can not help us here because there is no reason to suppose that all the turning
points should coe at e*actly the sae tie. ;atheatical tests based on the assuption that
they should are therefore in.alid.?
9a.e Shape
The identity of wa.e shape in different series also supports the idea of e*ternal cause. That two
cycles alone( without copulsion( would ha.e identical and coplicated shapes by chance alone is
stretching credibility to the brea,ing point.
Failies of Cycles
If there really are failies o f cycles( we ha.e strong additional e.idence of e*ternal forces. Cycles
of dynaic( feedbac,( or predator=prey origin would ha.e periods that would be totally unrelated=
e*cept occasionally by chance.
4<E<+9< E<FIR+<;E<T68 F+RCES
The really iportant aspect of coparati.e cycle study is the possibility that it will lead to the
disco.ery of hitherto un,nown en.ironental forces that affect life( weather( and any other
terrestrial phenoena.
9e ha.e seen that any of the rhyths that ha.e been obser.ed in the phenoena around us
cannot reasonably be the result of chance. 9e ha.e seen that any of these non=chance rhyths
cannot be the result of dynaic( feedbac,( or predator=prey situations. 6 few of the rhyths=but
not any=ay be the result of inter=phenoenal relationships. >5owe.er( this situation raises the
Auestion of the origin of the rhyth in the priary phenoenon.? This lea.es us with a .ery large
percentage of the non=chance rhyths as necessarily caused by un,nown e*ternal forces.
5ere we coe to grips with the central proble of cycle study: 9hat could these e*ternal forces
beK 4nfortunately we do not yet ,now( but it sees clear that they are soething.
If such forces are real( as we said in the beginning( it is a atter of the utost iportance to
an,ind. The proof of the e*istence of such forces will push bac, the frontiers of ,nowledge as
uch as any single disco.ery that I can thin, of. It will greatly e*pand an-s powers of prediction
in both the natural and social sciences. It will a,e possible a re.ision and ipro.eent of uch
of historical( econoic( and other thin,ing and theories. It will deonstrate uch greater unity
and interrelationship of natural and social phenoena than has pre.iously been iagined. It will
ha.e iportant philosophical iplications.
I ha.e presented only a sall fraction of the e.idence( but I trust it is enough to pro.e that
further e*ploration in this field is a ust.