Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chu Minh Hoi Tiep Can Tai Chinh Va Thu Nhap Household
Chu Minh Hoi Tiep Can Tai Chinh Va Thu Nhap Household
. X +y
]
. s + (ij) (2)
Trong , ls l li sut vay vn ng vai tr bin cng c cho bin C v l
phn d. T , phng php 2SLS tin hnh nh sau: (i) c lng hm vay vn
ca h (theo phng trnh 2); v (ii) ly gi tr lnC
e
c lng c theo phng
trnh (2) a vo phng trnh (1) thay v gi tr lnC thc t.
Vi phng php lun nh trn, phn mm Stata 16.2 c s dng x l
d liu v a ra kt qu c lng.
KT QU NGHIN CU
Kim nh hin tng ni sinh: K thut kim nh Durbin-Wu-Hausman
c s dng v kt qu (Bng 1) cho thy, thc s c vn ni sinh trong d
liu nghin cu.
BNG 1: KIM NH HIN TNG NI SINH
Bin ph thuc: lnY
Bin c lp
j
t p
lnC 0,332 4,52 0,000
-0,159 -2,14 0,033
S quan st 1.557
6
R
2
0,52
Ghi ch: h s ca cc bin gii thch khc c b ra khi bng kt qu.
Bn cht ca kim nh trn nh sau: nu C l bin ni sinh, th C ch c th
tng quan vi (phng trnh 1) thng qua (phng trnh 2). Gi thuyt ca
kim nh Durbin-Wu-Hausman trong trng hp ny l, xy ra hin tng ni
sinh bin C, tc nu coi l mt bin c lp v a vo phng trnh 1, h s
c lng ca n s 0. y, h s c lng ca l -0,159 v c ngha
thng k mc 5% (P=0,000), nn cha th bc b gi thuyt cho rng
cor(lnC,)0. Do , vic p dng phng php hi quy 2SLS l cn thit.
Kt qu hi quy 2SLS cho thy, tip cn ti chnh tc ng mnh v tch cc
ti thu nhp ca h gia nh (Bng 2). Theo , gi tr khon vay xut pht t nhu
cu tn dng thc s (khng phi gi tr khon vay thc t) ca h gia nh tng
thm 1% bnh qun c th tc ng tng thm 0,332% thu nhp theo u ngi ca
h. R2 =0,4658 cho bit, cc bin trong m hnh gii thch c 46,58% s bin
thin v thu nhp ca h gia nh.
C th hnh dung v tc ng ca tip cn ti chnh n thu nhp t kt qu
nghin cu nh sau: gi s mt h c 5 thnh vin, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi
l 2 triu ng/thng v c khon vay 10 triu ng. Khi , nu nh s tin vay
ca h tng thm 10%, hay 500.000 ng, tng thu nhp mt nm ca c h c th
tng ln [5 (ngi)] x [2 (triu)] x [0,332%] x [12 (thng)] =3,984 triu ng.
BNG 2. KT QU HI QUY 2SLS
Bin ph thuc: lnY
Bin c lp
j
t P
lnc 0,332 4,290 0,000
edu 0,063 4,280 0,000
age 0,000 0,010 0,995
age2 0,000 0,880 0,379
sex -0,013 -0,380 0,704
depend -0,005 -5,650 0,000
urban 0,154 3,460 0,001
7
own_dwell -0,034 -0,360 0,716
hhsize -0,101 -8,760 0,000
leader 0,104 0,820 0,412
kt_baccao -0,184 -1,320 0,186
kt_bactrung -0,022 -0,200 0,843
ldkythuat 0,126 2,930 0,003
nghe_dichvu 0,105 1,290 0,196
xaydung 0,029 0,410 0,684
quandoi -0,010 -0,040 0,964
ktnn 0,240 2,190 0,029
kttn 0,064 1,150 0,249
reg2 -0,007 -0,140 0,891
reg3 -0,117 -1,620 0,105
reg4 -0,088 -1,680 0,093
reg5 0,151 2,500 0,012
reg6 0,011 0,170 0,866
reg7 0,129 2,050 0,041
reg8 0,116 1,870 0,062
nam06 0,070 -0,400 0,132
nam08 0,263 3,250 0,000
hng s 5,604 8,030 0,000
s quan st 1,557
R
2
0,4658
Kt qu hi quy ny c th ni c bit ph hp vi l thuyt ca Banerjee
v Newman (1993): cc h vay c vn s dng vo cc hot ng u t to thu
nhp, h no cng c nhiu c hi tip cn dch v ti chnh th cng c kh nng
nng cao thu nhp. V do , khong cch v thu nhp gia cc h gia nh phn
no l do s khc bit v kh nng tip cn th trng ti chnh.
Ngoi ra, cng c th thy thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ca h c th chu
nh hng ca nhiu yu t khc, nh: trnh gio dc (tc ng dng); h
thnh th hay nng thn (h thnh th bnh qun c thu nhp cao hn h nng thn
bnh qun 15,4%); t l ph thuc (tc ng m); s thnh vin trong h (tc ng
m); vng a l hnh chnh. Ngoi ra, thu nhp ca h nn 2008 cao hn nm
8
2004 khong 26,3%, nhng dng nh thu nhp nm 2006 v 2004 khng c s
khc bit.
KT LUN
Nghin cu hng quan tm ti phn tch cc yu t tc ng ti thu nhp
ca h gia nh Vit Nam giai on 2004-2008 bng phng php m hnh hi quy
2SLS, trong , trng tm l lm r vai tr ca tip cn ti chnh. Kt qu nghin
cu khng nh vic tip dch v ti chnh, c th y l kh nng vay vn, c tc
ng tch cc ti thu nhp ca h.
Kt qu ny hm rng, s khc bit v thu nhp gia cc h c th c
nhiu nguyn nhn, nh: s chnh lch v trnh gio dc, ni sinh sng, hon
cnh gia nh hay lnh vc lm vic, ngh nghip, nhng vic thiu kh nng
tip cn dch v ti chnh mt cch ng u cng l mt nguyn nhn ng k. Do
, pht mt th trng ti chnh m c th m rng s ha nhp ti chnh
(financial inclusiveness) cho phn ng dn s, nht l nhng nhm ngi c iu
kin sng cn nhiu kh khn, s khng ch gip nng cao mc sng ngi dn,
m cn c th gip thu hp bt bnh ng v thu nhp, gp phn chung vo s n
nh kinh t - x hi./.
TI LIU THAM KHO
1. on Vit Dng, Phm Xun Nam (2013). Hiu qu hot ng ca cc ngn
hng thng mi Vit Nam, Tp ch Kinh t v d bo, s 24
2. Bi Trinh, Nguyn Bch Lm (2014). Vn ln ca nn kinh t thng qua mi
quan h: Nhu cu cui cng, sn xut, gi tr gia tng v nhp khu, Tp ch Kinh
t v D bo, s 4
3. Anwar, S. and Lan Phi Nguyen (2009). Financial Development and Economic
Growth in Vietnam, Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 35, issue 3
4. Phan Nguyen Dinh (2010). The impacts of financial development on household
economic activities, Journal of Economics and Development, vol.13, no.2
9
5. Banerjee, A.V. and Newman, A.F. (1993). Occupational choice and the process
of development, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 101, no.2
6. Galor, O. and Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics, Review
of Economic Studies, vol. 60, no.1
7. Levine R. (1997). Financial development and Economic Growth: Views and
Agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. XXXV
8. Levine, R. (2005). Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence, in: Philippe
Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, ed.1, vol.1, chap.
12
9. Thorsten Beck et al. (2000). Finance and the Sources of Growth, Journal of
Financial Economics, iss.58