SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.577019
R Square
0.33295
Adjusted R Square
0.295892
Standard Error
850.3311
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 6496360 6496360
18 13015135 723063.1
19 19511495

F
Significance F
8.9845 0.007729

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
645.5 445.9174 1.447577 0.164929 -291.338 1582.338 -291.338 1582.338
X Variable 1
403 134.4492 2.997416 0.007729 120.5328 685.4672 120.5328 685.4672

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
Standard Residuals
1
1048.5
151.5 0.183048
2
1048.5
-168.5 -0.20359
3
1048.5
751.5 0.907991
4
1048.5
1.5 0.001812
5
1451.5
248.5 0.300247
6
1451.5
-1101.5 -1.33087
7
1451.5
1048.5 1.266837
8
1451.5
-691.5
-0.8355
9
1854.5
445.5 0.53827
10
1854.5
-854.5 -1.03244
11
1854.5
-284.5 -0.34374
12
1854.5
575.5 0.695341
13
2257.5
-937.5 -1.13272
14
2257.5
-857.5 -1.03606
15
2257.5
-367.5 -0.44403
16
2257.5
942.5 1.138764
17
2660.5
-460.5 -0.55639
18
2660.5
-1220.5 -1.47465
19
2660.5
1339.5 1.618435
20
2660.5
1439.5 1.739258

PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Percentile
2.5
7.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.5
52.5
57.5
62.5
67.5
72.5
77.5
82.5
87.5
92.5
97.5

Y
350
760
880
1000
1050
1200
1320
1400
1440
1570
1700
1800
1890
2200
2300
2430
2500
3200
4000
4100

Upper 95.0%

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

1000
3000

-1000
-2000

Normal Probability Plot

20001

2
6000

1000

4000

0
Y

Residuals

2000

2000

6
Y

X Variable 1
2

0
0

X Variable 1
20

Predicted Y
4

6
40

60

80

Sample Percentile

100

120

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.924301
R Square
0.854332
Adjusted R Square
0.847711
Standard Error
14.96477
Observations
24
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 28895.18 28895.18 129.0284 1.13E-10
22 4926.776 223.9443
23 33821.96

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 102.8841 6.305413 16.31678 8.93E-14 89.80743 115.9607 89.80743 115.9607
X Variable 1 5.012609 0.441287 11.35907 1.13E-10 4.097435 5.927782 4.097435 5.927782

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 107.8967
2 112.9093
3 117.9219
4 122.9345
5 127.9471
6 132.9597
7 137.9723
8 142.9849
9 147.9975
10 153.0101
11 158.0228
12 163.0354
13 168.048
14 173.0606
15 178.0732
16 183.0858
17 188.0984
18 193.111
19 198.1236
20 203.1362
21 208.1488
22 213.1614

PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Residuals
Standard Residuals
22.10333 1.51022
1.090725 0.074524
2.078116 0.141988
12.06551 0.824381
12.0529 0.82352
-9.95971
-0.6805
-16.9723 -1.15964
-7.98493 -0.54557
12.00246 0.820074
-23.0101 -1.57218
-26.0228 -1.77802
-15.0354
-1.0273
11.95203 0.816628
-12.0606 -0.82404
-3.07319 -0.20998
15.9142 1.087345
21.90159 1.496436
-8.11101 -0.55419
-8.12362 -0.55505
1.863768 0.127343
16.85116 1.151363
-3.16145 -0.21601

Percentile
2.083333
6.25
10.41667
14.58333
18.75
22.91667
27.08333
31.25
35.41667
39.58333
43.75
47.91667
52.08333
56.25
60.41667
64.58333
68.75
72.91667
77.08333
81.25
85.41667
89.58333

Y
114
120
121
123
130
130
132
135
135
140
148
160
161
175
180
185
190
199
202
205
210
210

23 218.1741 -16.1741
-1.1051
24 223.1867 19.81333 1.353755

93.75
97.91667

225
243

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

Normal Probability Plot

20
300

0
-20
-40

Residuals

40

2005

10

15

20

25

30

100
0
0

X Variable 1
20
40

60

Sample Percentile

Upper 95,0%
4.633602703
1.611956477

80

100

120

An
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6

Trimestru y
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

medii_mob_partiale
362
114
120
135
140
123
121
135
160
130
132
148
180
161
175
199
210
185
190
205
225
210
202
243

182.75
127.25
129.5
129.75
129.75
134.75
136.5
139.25
142.5
147.5
155.25
166
178.75
186.25
192.25
196
197.5
201.25
207.5
210.5
220

mm_finale ajustare

155
128.375
129.625
129.75
132.25
135.625
137.875
140.875
145
151.375
160.625
172.375
182.5
189.25
194.125
196.75
199.375
204.375
209
215.25

-35
6.625
10.375
-6.75
-11.25
-0.625
22.125
-10.875
-13
-3.375
19.375
-11.375
-7.5
9.75
15.875
-11.75
-9.375
0.625
16
-5.25

Sj
1.113313
0.952193
0.90997
1.024525
1.113313
0.952193
0.90997
1.024525
1.113313
0.952193
0.90997
1.024525
1.113313
0.952193
0.90997
1.024525
1.113313
0.952193
0.90997
1.024525

Yajust+Sj

-34.09
7.649525
11.48831
-5.79781
-10.34
0.399525
23.23831
-9.92281
-12.09
-2.35048
20.48831
-10.4228
-6.59003
10.77452
16.98831
-10.7978

-35.91
5.600475
9.261687
-7.70219
-12.16
-1.64952
21.01169
-11.8272
-13.91
-4.39952
18.26169
-12.3272
-8.40997
8.725475
14.76169
-12.7022

Yij-Sj
timp
360.8867
113.0478
119.09
133.9755
138.8867
122.0478
120.09
133.9755
158.8867
129.0478
131.09
146.9755
178.8867
160.0478
174.09
197.9755
208.8867
184.0478
189.09
203.9755

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Trend
107.8967
112.9093
117.9219
122.9345
127.9471
132.9597
137.9723
142.9849
147.9975
153.0101
158.0228
163.0354
168.048
173.0606
178.0732
183.0858
188.0984
193.111
198.1236
203.1362
208.1488
213.1614
218.1741
223.1867

Yij/Trend
3.355062
1.00966
1.017623
1.098146
1.094202
0.925092
0.876988
0.944155
1.081099
0.849617
0.835323
0.907779
1.071123
0.93031
0.982742
1.086922
1.116437
0.957998
0.958997
1.009175
1.080957
0.985169
0.925866
1.088775

trimestru/AN
I
II
III
IV

2
1.080039
0.947977
0.774194 0.914934
1.051607 0.995392

Chart Title
400
350
300
Axis Title

eps ij

250
200

150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

r_i(coef_abatere)
3
4
5
6 r_j(medie trm)
indici de sezonalitate
1.160471 1.120623 1.081777 1.076555 1.103893 1.113313
0.922804 0.93401 0.94028 0.97561 0.944136 0.952193
0.910345 0.958904 0.952978
0.902271 0.90997
0.977704 1.051519 1.003058
1.015856 1.024525
medie abs
0.991539
1

Chart Title

Series1

9 101112131415161718192021222324

0.774193548
1.051606621
1.080038573
0.947976879
0.914933837
0.995391705
1.160471442
0.922803904
0.910344828
0.977704377
1.120622568
0.934010152
0.95890411
1.051519155
1.081777205
0.940279543
0.952978056
1.003058104
1.076555024
0.975609756

indici sez datele desezonalizate

1.103398
328.0773691
0.943713
120.7994453
0.937488
128.0016324
1.015401
132.9524331
1.103398
126.8807505
0.943713
130.3362436
0.937488
129.0683127
1.015401
132.9524331
1.103398
145.006572
0.943713
137.7537534
0.937488
140.8017957
1.015401
145.75526
1.103398
163.1323935
0.943713
170.6027253
0.937488
186.6690473
1.015401
195.9817347
1.103398
190.3211257
0.943713
196.0341875
0.937488
202.6692514
1.015401
201.8907317
1.103398
203.9154919
0.943713
222.5252939
0.937488
215.4694146
1.015401
239.3143795

E
3.355062
1.00966
1.017623
1.098146
1.094202
0.925092
0.876988
0.944155
1.081099
0.849617
0.835323
0.907779
1.071123
0.93031
0.982742
1.086922
1.116437
0.957998
0.958997
1.009175
1.080957
0.985169
0.925866
1.088775

3.040663
1.069881
1.085478
1.08149
0.991666
0.980269
0.935465
0.929835
0.97979
0.900292
0.891022
0.89401
0.970749
0.985798
1.048271
1.070437
1.011817
1.015137
1.022943
0.993869
0.979662
1.043928
0.987603
1.072261