Financial Highlights

Results Review
INDIA
ENERGY
13 August 2013


REPORT AUTHORS
Nitin Tiwari
+91 22 6766 3437
nitin.tiwari@religare.com







PRICE CLOSE (13 Aug 13)
INR 475.10
MARKET CAP
INR 2,85,600 mln
USD 4,656 mln
SHARES O/S
601.1 mln
FREE FLOAT
21.6%
3M AVG DAILY VOLUME./VALUE
0.6 mln/ USD 5.8 mln
52 WK HIGH
INR 629.90
52 WK LOW
INR 431.00





BUY
TP: INR 720.00
51.5%
Oil India
OINL IN


PAT slips on lower vols./realization; recovery ahead-BUY

OINLs Q1 PAT at Rs 6.1bn was below our/street estimates on lower crude
sales (0.87mmt) and reali sations (US$ 45.9/bbl) and a drop in VAP sal es
(10.3tmt vs. 12tmt in Q4FY13). NG prod./sales however inched up QoQ to
7.22/5.7mmscmd. Maintai n BUY on: (a) a likel y improvement in crude
reali sations on lower gross U/R of Rs 1398bn/939bn in FY14/FY15, (b) higher
crude production/sal es in the quarters ahead and (c) cheap valuations of
6xFY15E (ignoring earnings upside from NG price hikes in FY15).

Crude sales/realisations lower QoQ: Despite higher production (0.89mmt vs.
0.86mmt in Q4FY13), crude sales declined to 0.87mmt (from 0.88mmt in Q4FY13)
due to a major fire at the Numaligarh refinery in May13. Crude realisations
dropped as well, as OINL was made to subsidise OMCs at the prevalent discount of
US$ 56/bbl despite muted crude prices of US$ 102/bbl (US$ 111/bbl in Q4FY13).
We expect a pick-up in the companys crude oil sales over the coming quarters as
the Numaligarh refinery resumes operations.
Realisations to improve on lower U/R: We expect U/R drop to Rs 1398bn/939bn in
FY14/FY15 on: (a) a sustained increase (Rs 0.5/ltr/month) in diesel prices and (b)
sluggish fuel demand growth due to higher prices and a poor macro. If crude prices
remain muted, upstream subsidy/bbl could come down as well. We model for
FY14/FY15 realisations of US$ 55/59/bbl for OINL.
Significant investment plans lined up: OINL is actively scouting for exploration/
production assets to support its inorganic growth. It recently acquired Videocons
10% stake in a Mozambique offshore block via a 40:60 consortium with ONGC. With
cash reserves of US$ 2bn+, we dont see such acquisitions as an impeding factor.
Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 720 on attractive valuations, factoring in the
overhangs of higher U/R but not the earnings upside from gas price hikes in FY15.

Y/E 31 Mar FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Revenue (INR mln) 83,641 98,632 99,476 1,20,094 1,30,024
EBITDA (INR mln) 36,169 42,023 46,147 57,484 66,641
Adjusted net profit (INR mln) 28,755 34,691 35,893 42,525 47,865
Adjusted EPS (INR) 48.1 57.7 59.7 70.7 79.6
Adjusted EPS growth (%) 10.9 20.1 3.5 18.5 12.6
DPS (INR) 15.0 19.0 30.0 30.0 32.0
ROIC (%) 39.2 40.4 35.7 41.7 42.7
Adjusted ROAE (%) 19.6 20.8 19.4 20.9 21.1
Adjusted P/E (x) 9.9 8.2 8.0 6.7 6.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 4.2 3.8 3.0 2.5
P/BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2
Source: Company, Bloomberg, RCML Research
This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. Where the report is distributed by Religare Capital Markets
(UK) Limited (RCMUK), the firmis an Appointed Representative of Elevation Trading Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section
at the end of this report. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSE
restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
40
60
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100
120
140
160
(%) Stock Price Index Price
BUY
TP: INR 720.00
51.5%
Oil India
OINL IN

Results Review
INDIA
ENERGY



13 August 2013 Page 2 of 6

Result highlights
Fig 1 - Comparison with estimates
(Ns mn) Actual Estimate % Variance
Revenue 20,978 23,340 (10.1)
EBITDA 8,140 11,454 (28.9)
Adj net income 6,091 8,653 (29.6)
FDEPS (Rs) 10.1 14.4 (29.6)
Source: RCML Research, Company
Fig 2 - Quarterl y earnings snapshot
(Rs mn) Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % Chg YoY Q4FY13 % Chg QoQ
Revenue 20,978 24,396 (14.0) 24,718 (15.1)
Expenditure 12,838 12,372 3.8 14,958 (14.2)
Operating profit 8,140 12,025 (32.3) 9,759 (16.6)
Other income 3,517 3,772 (6.8) 3,694 (4.8)
Interest 9 3 190.3 20 (55.0)
Depreciation 2,665 2,025 31.6 2,394 11.3
PBT 8,982 13,769 (34.8) 11,040 (18.6)
Tax 2,891 4,469 (35.3) 3,394 (14.8)
PAT 6,091 9,299 (34.5) 7,646 (20.3)
EBITDA margin (%) 38.8 49.3

39.5

FDEPS (Rs) 10.1 15.5 (34.5) 12.7 (20.3)
Source: RCML Research, Company
Fig 3 - Operational highlights
(Rs mn) Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % Chg YoY Q4FY13 % Chg QoQ
Production & Sales

Crude Oil production (MMT) 0.89 0.93 (4.5) 0.86 3.7
Crude Oil sales (MMT) 0.87 0.94 (7.5) 0.88 (1.7)
Nat. Gas production (MMSCMD) 7.2 6.9 5.0 7.2 0.3
Nat. Gas sales (BCM) 5.74 5.33 7.6 5.6 2.2
Crude Pricing

Pre Discount US$/bbl 101.9 109.8 (7.2) 111.4 (8.6)
Post Discount US$/bbl 45.9 53.9 (14.8) 55.4 (17.2)
Subsidy Burden (Rsbn) 19.8 20.2 (1.7) 18.5 7.2
Segmental Revenue (Rs bn)

Crude Oil 15.5 19.6 (20.9) 19.5 (20.6)
Natural Gas 3.9 3.5 10.5 3.8 2.3
Segmental EBIT (Rs bn)

Crude Oil 4.3 9.0 (52.8) 7.3 (41.9)
Natural Gas 1.7 1.9 (12.1) 0.7 124.0
Exchange Rate 55.9 54.1 3.4 54.2 3.3
Source: RCML Research, Company

PAT disappoints on lower crude/VAP
sales and realisations
BUY
TP: INR 720.00
51.5%
Oil India
OINL IN

Results Review
INDIA
ENERGY



13 August 2013 Page 3 of 6

Valuations
Fig 4 - P/E valuation
Rs bn Rs/share Comment
Core Business 431 716.62 9 x FY15E
Value of the company 431 717

Source: RCML Research, Company
Fig 5 - Key assumptions
Unit FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Crude Oil Production MMTPA 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9
Crude Oil Sales MMTPA 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8
Crude realization

- FOB Price (Brent) USD/bbl 87 114.7 110 109 109
- Gross realisations (post sub) USD/bbl 59 59.8 56 55 59
- Net realisations (after taxes) USD/bbl 38 39.6 34 34 37
Natural Gas Production bcm 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.0
Natural Gas Sales bcm 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5
Gas Prices USD/mmbtu 2.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 5.4
OIL share in under-recoveries

- OIL's share Rs bn 32.9 73.5 78.9 81.8 73.2
Exchange Rate USD/INR 45.5 47.9 54.4 60.0 58.0
Source: RCML Research, Company
Fig 6 - Crude oil production and sales Fig 7 - NG production and sales



Source: RCML Research, Company

Source: RCML Research, Company

Fig 8 - Depletion and dry well expense Fig 9 - Subsidy burden and % share in upstream



Source: RCML Research, Company

Source: RCML Research, Company

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12.5
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(%) (Rsbn)
Subsidy burden Subsidy share
We model for NG prices at just
US$ 5.4/mmbtu in FY15 on a likely
increase in subsidy payments when
APM gas prices increase to
~US$ 8.4/mmbtu
BUY
TP: INR 720.00
51.5%
Oil India
OINL IN

Results Review
INDIA
ENERGY



13 August 2013 Page 4 of 6

Per Share Data
Y/E 31 Mar (INR) FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Reported EPS 48.0 57.7 59.7 70.7 79.6
Adjusted EPS 48.1 57.7 59.7 70.7 79.6
DPS 15.0 19.0 30.0 30.0 32.0
BVPS 259.5 295.1 319.6 356.1 398.6

Valuation Ratios
Y/E 31 Mar (x) FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
EV/Sales 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA 5.5 4.2 3.8 3.0 2.5
Adjusted P/E 9.9 8.2 8.0 6.7 6.0
P/BV 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2

Financial Ratios
Y/E 31 Mar FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Profitabilit y & Return Ratios (%)
EBITDA margin 43.2 42.6 46.4 47.9 51.3
EBIT margin 37.5 37.4 38.0 40.4 43.9
Adjusted profit margin 34.4 35.2 36.1 35.4 36.8
Adjusted ROAE 19.6 20.8 19.4 20.9 21.1
ROCE 13.8 14.5 13.5 15.3 16.1
YoY Growth (%)
Revenue 5.6 17.9 0.9 20.7 8.3
EBITDA 5.0 16.2 9.8 24.6 15.9
Adjusted EPS 10.9 20.1 3.5 18.5 12.6
Invested capital (2.6) 34.0 3.3 13.1 13.2
Worki ng Capital & Li qui dit y Rati os
Receivables (days) 20 24 36 25 22
Inventory (days) 170 170 196 196 224
Payables (days) 150 142 138 102 106
Current ratio (x) 3.4 4.2 3.5 3.7 4.0
Quick ratio (x) 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.9
Turnover & Leverage Rati os (x)
Gross asset turnover 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
Total asset turnover 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Net interest coverage ratio 225.5 393.6 1,452.7 101.9 149.8
Adjusted debt/equity (0.7) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.5)

DuPont Anal ysis
Y/E 31 Mar (%) FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Tax burden (Net income/PBT) 66.8 67.7 67.9 67.0 66.0
Interest burden (PBT/EBIT) 137.2 138.9 139.9 130.8 127.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenue) 37.5 37.4 38.0 40.4 43.9
Asset turnover (Revenue/Avg TA) 42.5 44.9 41.6 45.8 45.5
Leverage (Avg TA/Avg equities) 134.0 131.9 129.6 129.2 126.1
Adjusted ROAE 19.6 20.8 19.4 20.9 21.1

BUY
TP: INR 720.00
51.5%
Oil India
OINL IN

Results Review
INDIA
ENERGY



13 August 2013 Page 5 of 6

Income Statement
Y/E 31 Mar (INR ml n) FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Total revenue 83,641 98,632 99,476 1,20,094 1,30,024
EBITDA 36,169 42,023 46,147 57,484 66,641
EBIT 31,389 36,881 37,771 48,521 57,051
Net interest income/(expenses) (139) (94) (26) (476) (381)
Other income/(expenses) 11,851 14,454 15,088 15,426 15,853
Exceptional items (41) 0 0 0 0
EBT 43,100 51,241 52,832 63,471 72,523
Income taxes (14,255) (16,549) (16,939) (20,945) (24,658)
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0
Min. int./Inc. from associates 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 28,804 34,691 35,893 42,525 47,865
Adjustments (49) 0 0 0 0
Adj usted net profi t 28,755 34,691 35,893 42,525 47,865
Balance Sheet
Y/E 31 Mar (INR ml n) FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Accounts payables 21,000 23,153 17,086 17,967 18,900
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Provisions 12,220 15,543 19,833 20,360 21,544
Debt funds 10,268 101 10,578 8,462 6,770
Other liabilities 13,135 10,805 12,197 12,198 12,199
Equity capital 2,405 2,405 6,011 6,011 6,011
Reserves & surplus 1,53,573 1,74,991 1,86,104 2,08,058 2,33,609
Shareholders' fund 1,55,978 1,77,395 1,92,115 2,14,069 2,39,620
Total liabil iti es and equi ties 2,12,601 2,26,998 2,51,809 2,73,056 2,99,032
Cash and cash eq. 1,17,714 1,09,360 1,23,202 1,29,768 1,38,266
Accounts receivables 2,495 10,518 9,027 7,518 8,126
Inventories 5,004 5,333 6,443 7,377 8,447
Other current assets 22,819 37,390 26,928 29,647 32,668
Investments 8,847 8,147 18,571 22,285 26,742
Net fixed assets 51,240 51,144 59,661 66,077 71,708
CWIP 4,484 5,107 7,978 10,384 13,075
Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax assets, net 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 0 0 0 0 0
Total assets 2,12,601 2,26,998 2,51,809 2,73,056 2,99,032
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E 31 Mar (INR ml n) FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Net income +Depreciation 33,585 39,833 44,270 51,488 57,455
Interest expenses 139 94 26 476 381
Non-cash adjustments 0 0 0 0 0
Changes in working capital 7,476 (17,448) 9,066 (737) (2,583)
Other operating cash flows 2,900 (2,330) 1,392 1 1
Cash fl ow from operati ons 44,100 20,149 54,754 51,229 55,254
Capital expenditures (11,044) (5,669) (19,765) (17,786) (17,912)
Change in investments (252) 700 (10,424) (3,714) (4,457)
Other investing cash flows 0 0 0 0 0
Cash fl ow from investi ng (11,296) (4,969) (30,189) (21,500) (22,369)
Equities issued 0 0 (253) 0 0
Debt raised/repaid 9,892 (10,167) 10,477 (2,116) (1,692)
Interest expenses (139) (94) (26) (476) (381)
Dividends paid (10,497) (13,275) (20,920) (20,571) (22,314)
Other financing cash flows 224 1 (1) 0 0
Cash fl ow from fi nancing (520) (23,534) (10,723) (23,163) (24,388)
Changes in cash and cash eq 32,284 (8,354) 13,842 6,566 8,498
Closing cash and cash eq 1,17,714 1,09,360 1,23,202 1,29,768 1,38,266


13 August 2013 Page 6 of 6

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