Expressing uncertainty

Volumetrics estimates require a number of

input parameters
STOIIP= GRV*

**S
O
*
1

More uncertainties= more error
E.g if above 5 parameters all=1, then STOIIP=1
If theres a 5%+/- error in all parameters then
STOIIP(-5%)=> -23% error and STOIIP(+5%)=>
+28% error
unrealistic to take arithmetic average
(
Ave
=0.20)
Take into account all uncertainties
Create probability density function for STOIIP
Using PDF to determine expectation curve

Probability density functions
Discrete PDF
Set number of outcomes
Each are as likely to occur as
another


= 1 , where j = all
possible outcomes and

is
probability of outcomes
Rolling a die once, number
of outcomes 6 (1-6)
Continuous PDF
Infinite set of events
Probability of single event
=0
Probability in set interval
e.g a-z
P[a x z] =

,i.e
Area under curve
PDF and expected curve
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 45 90 135 180
F
r
e
q
(
x
)

Probability distribution function
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
0 45 90 135 180
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

Expected curve
STOIIP Expectation curve