10/25/2011

1
Bi ging 8
Tin v chnh sch tin t
Tin v chc nng ca tin
Tin: tr lng ti sn c s dng thc hin
giao dch.
Chc nng ca tin:
Trung gian trao i
D tr gi tr
n v tnh ton
2
www.bankaz.vn
10/25/2011
2
Cung tin v c s tin
M: Money Supply: Cung tin
M1 = Tin trong lu thng C v tin gi khng k hn
M2 = M1 + tin gi c k hn
Tng qut: M = C + D
Cung tin l tng s tin c trong lu thng v tin gi
MB: Money Base - C s tin: MB = C + R
C s tin l tng s tin c trong lu thng v tng
tin d tr trong cc ngn hng.
Tin c to ra nh th no?
Ngn hng trung ng in tin
Cc ngn hng to ra tin thng qua hot ng
nhn tin gi (Deposit) v cho vay (Loan)
D tr (Reserves): c gi bi cc ngn hng
nhmp ng nhu cu rt tin hay yu cu d
tr php nh.
4
10/25/2011
3
Techcombank
Ti khon c
(Assets)
Ti khon n
(Liabilities)
D tr 100
Cho vay 900
Ngn hng thng mi v vic to ra tin
Cung tin = 1000 + 900
Tin gi 1,000
ng
Ti khon c
(Assets)
Ti khon n
(Liabilities)
Cung tin = 1000 + 900 + 810
ACB
Ti khon c
(Assets)
Ti khon n
(Liabilities)
Cung tin = 1000 + 900+810 + 719
D tr 90
Cho vay 810
Tin gi 900
D tr 81
Cho vay 719
Tin gi 810
Sau tt c cc vng
Tin gi ban u = 1000
+ Khon cho vay ca Bank 1 = 900 = (1-rr)x1000
+ Khon cho vay ca Bank 2 = 810 = (1-rr)
2
x1000
+ Khon cho vay ca Bank 3 = 729 = (1-rr)
3
x1000
+ Khon cho vay tip
Tng cung tin = [1 +(1-rr) + (1-rr)
2
+ (1-rr)
3
+]x$1000
= (1/rr ) $1,000
trong rr l t l d tr
y: rr = 0.1, cho nn M = 10,000
10/25/2011
4
Tin Bc v Ca Ci
Cc ngn hng vi h thng d tr mt phn nh th ny
to ra tin, nhng khng to ra ca ci.
Khi mt ngn hng cho vay mt phn t d tr d ca
mnh, ngn hng lmcho ngi vay c kh nng
dng s tin mua bn hng ha, v v th, cung tin
tng ln.
Ngi vay tuy mua c hng ha nhng mang n ca
ngn hng, v v th, h khng giu thm.
Ni cch khc, vic to ra tin t h thng ngn hng ch
lmtng tnh thanh khon ca nn kinh t, ch khng to
ra ca ci cho nn kinh t.
Tin c gi tr danh ngha, hng ha v dch v c gi tr
thc.
Bank 1
Assets Liabilities
D tr $200
Cho vay $800
Ngn hng v Tin - V d 2
Tin gi
$1,000
Gi s tng tin gi ban u l $1000.
Gi s ngn hng gi t l d tr l 20%, v ngi dn gi t
l tin mt bng 1/3 tin gi.
Cung tin lc ny l bao nhiu?
Ngi dn
Deposit Currency
Gi $600 Gi $200
Cung tin: $200 + $800
10/25/2011
5
Bank 2
Assets Liabilities
D tr $120
Cho vay $480
Vng 2
Tin gi $600
By gi tin gi vo ngn hng l $600
Cung tin lc ny l bao nhiu?
Ngi dn
Deposit Currency
Gi $360 Gi $120
Cung tin: $1000 + $800 + $480
Bank 2
Assets Liabilities
D tr $72
Cho vay $288
Vng 3
Tin gi $360
By gi tin gi vo ngn hng l $360
Cung tin lc ny l bao nhiu?
Ngi dn
Deposit Currency
Gi $216 Gi $72
Cung tin: $1000 + $800 + $480 + $288
10/25/2011
6
S nhn tin (money multiplier)
S nhn tin m l t l gia cung tin v c s tin:
M = m x MB
Trong rr = R/D, v cr = C/D
rr nh ngn hng d tr t v cho vay nhiu
s nhn tin cao cung tin cao.
cr nh ngi dn gi li t, gi ngn hng
nhiu ngn hng cng to ra c nhiu tin
cung tin cao.
Ngn hng trung ng, ngn hng
thng mi, v khu vc t nhn
12
10/25/2011
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Phng trnh s lng tin
M x V = P x Y
V: vn tc thu nhp ca tin (income velocity of money):
l s ln mt n v tin c a vo thu nhp ca
ai .
Y: GDP thc, PY: GDP danh ngha
M/P = mc cn bng tin thc (real money balance):
o lng sc mua ca cung tin, hay l lng hng
ha thc m s tin mua c.
Phng trnh cu tin: th hin lng tin thc m
ngi ta mun cmtrong tay: (M/P )
d
= kY
k = hng s, th hin lng tin ngi ta mun c
trong tay cho mi n v thu nhp (Y)
Thuyt s lng tin
Gi nh: V khng i, phng trnh s lng tin c vit li
thnh:
Di dng mc tng:
Do V khng i, V/V = 0:
M V P Y
M V P Y

+ = +
M P Y
M P Y

= +

=
M Y
M Y
= M V P Y
10/25/2011
8
ngha ca thuyt s lng tin
Lmpht xut hin khi cung tin tng nhanh hn tc
hng ha v dch v c sn xut.
Tc tng hng ha v dch v ph thuc vo nng
sut ca nn kinh t (mc tng ca vn v lao
ng, hiu qu sn xut, v tin b cng ngh).
V th, t l lmpht v t l tng ca cung tin c mi
quan h 1-1.
V th, ngn hng trung ng, thng qua vic kim
sot mc tng ca cung tin, hon ton c trong tay
kh nng kimsot v kimch lmpht.
Milton Friedman: Lm pht lun lun v bt k u
cng l mt hin tng tin t.
Hiu ng Fisher
Phng trnh Fisher: i = r +
Cn bng th trng vn vay S = I xc nh li
sut thc r.
Lmpht tng bao nhiu s dn n li sut
danh ngha tng tng .
Chnh xc hn, lm pht k vng
e
tng bao nhiu
s dn n li sut danh ngha tng tng .
Quan h 1-1 ny gi l hiu ng Fisher.
10/25/2011
9
Li sut danh ngha v cu tin
(M/P )
d
= cu tin thc, ph thuc:
Nghch bin vi li sut danh ngha i
i l chi ph c hi, hay gi ca vic gi tin
ng bin vi thu nhp thc Y
Y cng cao chi tiu cng nhiu
cn thmnhiu tin
Kt hp vi Fisher: i = r +
Cn bng:
( ) ( , )
d
M P L i Y =
( / ) ( , ) + =
S e
M r P L Y
K vng
Thuyt s lng tin MV=PY ni rng cung tin quyt nh
mc gi c chung. iu ny ng, nhng vi iu kin li
sut danh ngha khng i, v tng sn lng tng i c
nh.
Nhng thc t li sut danh ngha khng c nh, m ph
thuc vo k vng v lmpht.
V vy, hm cu tin dng tng qut cho thy: mc gi chung
ph thuc c vo cung tin, v c k vng ca ngi dn v s
thay i cung tin trong tng lai.
10/25/2011
10
19
Khu vc kinh t HG DN NHTW CP N.ngoi Tng
Ti khon quc dn
Tiu dng -C +C 0
Chnh ph +G -G 0
Xut khu +X -X 0
Nhp khu -M +M 0
Tng thu nhp/sn lng +Y -Y 0
Thu -T +T 0
Lu lng vn
tri phiu chnh ph -Bp -Bcb +B 0
tin mt -H +H 0
d tr ngoi hi -R +R 0
Tng 0 0 0 0 0 0
ti sn/n +W 0 0 -B -R 0
Tr lng (cui k)
Tri phiu chnh ph +Bp +Bcb -B 0
Tin mt +H -H 0
D tr ngoi hi +R -R 0
Tng gp (tng ca ci) +W 0 0 -B -R 0
T l lm pht gi tiu dng
(m/m, trung bnh ng 3 thng)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2
/
2
0
0
6
4
/
2
0
0
6
6
/
2
0
0
6
8
/
2
0
0
6
1
0
/
2
0
0
6
1
2
/
2
0
0
6
2
/
2
0
0
7
4
/
2
0
0
7
6
/
2
0
0
7
8
/
2
0
0
7
1
0
/
2
0
0
7
1
2
/
2
0
0
7
2
/
2
0
0
8
4
/
2
0
0
8
6
/
2
0
0
8
8
/
2
0
0
8
1
0
/
2
0
0
8
1
2
/
2
0
0
8
2
/
2
0
0
9
4
/
2
0
0
9
6
/
2
0
0
9
8
/
2
0
0
9
1
0
/
2
0
0
9
1
2
/
2
0
0
9
2
/
2
0
1
0
4
/
2
0
1
0
6
/
2
0
1
0
8
/
2
0
1
0
1
0
/
2
0
1
0
1
2
/
2
0
1
0
2
/
2
0
1
1
4
/
2
0
1
1
6
/
2
0
1
1
China
Indonesia
Vietam
10/25/2011
11
D tr ngoi hi
theo s thng nhp khu
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006
I
2006
II
2006
III
2006
IV
2007
I
2007
II
2007
III
2007
IV
2008
I
2008
II
2008
III
2008
IV
2009
I
2009
II
2009
III
2009
IV
2010
I
2010
II
2010
III
2010
IV
2011
I
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Tng trng tn dng, u t v GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2
0
0
1

Q
4
2
0
0
2

Q
1
2
0
0
2

Q
2
2
0
0
2

Q
3
2
0
0
2

Q
4
2
0
0
3

Q
1
2
0
0
3

Q
2
2
0
0
3

Q
3
2
0
0
3

Q
4
2
0
0
4

Q
1
2
0
0
4

Q
2
2
0
0
4

Q
3
2
0
0
4

Q
4
2
0
0
5

Q
1
2
0
0
5

Q
2
2
0
0
5

Q
3
2
0
0
5

Q
4
2
0
0
6

Q
1
2
0
0
6

Q
2
2
0
0
6

Q
3
2
0
0
6

Q
4
2
0
0
7

Q
1
2
0
0
7

Q
2
2
0
0
7

Q
3
2
0
0
7

Q
4
2
0
0
8

Q
1
2
0
0
8

Q
2
2
0
0
8

Q
3
2
0
0
8

Q
4
2
0
0
9

Q
1
2
0
0
9

Q
2
2
0
0
9

Q
3
2
0
0
9

Q
4
2
0
1
0

Q
1
2
0
1
0

Q
2
2
0
1
0

Q
3
2
0
1
0

Q
4
2
0
1
1

Q
1
Credit growth
GDP growth
Investment growth
10/25/2011
12
Cn i k ton khu vc ngn hng
(200,000)
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
M
1
2
0
0
5
M
4
2
0
0
5
M
7
2
0
0
5
M
1
0
2
0
0
5
M
1
2
0
0
6
M
4
2
0
0
6
M
7
2
0
0
6
M
1
0
2
0
0
6
M
1
2
0
0
7
M
4
2
0
0
7
M
7
2
0
0
7
M
1
0
2
0
0
7
M
1
2
0
0
8
M
4
2
0
0
8
M
7
2
0
0
8
M
1
0
2
0
0
8
M
1
2
0
0
9
M
4
2
0
0
9
M
7
2
0
0
9
M
1
0
2
0
0
9
M
1
2
0
1
0
M
4
2
0
1
0
M
7
2
0
1
0
M
1
0
2
0
1
0
M
1
2
0
1
1
Equity
Credit from SBV
Government deposits
Bonds
Foreign currency deposits and liabilities
Time and demand deposits
Other assets
Loans to businesses and households
Loans to government
Foreign assets
Reserves
Thm ht ngn sch theo phn trm GDP
2007-2010
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Vietnam China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand