I HC QUC GIA THNH PH H CH MINH

I HC BCH KHOA
KHOA MI TRNG

TIU LUN

M HNH HA MI TRNG

M HNH ARIMA TRONG D BO

CHT LNG KHNG KH TH

GVHD

PGS.TSKH. BI T LONG

Nhm

11

TR NGUYN QUNH NGA

13261356

V NGC QUNH

13261360

TP HCM, thng 5, 2014

MC LC
MC LC ....................................................................................................................i
DANH MC CH VIT TT.................................................................................. ii
DANH MC HNH .................................................................................................. iii
DANH MC BNG BIU .......................................................................................iv
1.

M HNH ARIMA ............................................................................................. 1

1.1.

Tng quan .....................................................................................................1

1.2.

M hnh ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) ..................................................................1

1.3.

Cu trc d liu m hnh ..............................................................................3

1.3.1. Nhn dng m hnh ..................................................................................3

1.3.2. c lng cc thng s ...........................................................................3
1.3.3. Kim nh m hnh ..................................................................................4
1.3.4. D bo ......................................................................................................4
2. NG DNG M HNH ARIMA TRONG D BO CHT LNG
KHNG KH TH.........................................................................................................4
2.1. ng dng m hnh ARIMA d bo nng bi siu nh t yu t kh
tng trn ng ph ng c ti Hng Chu, Trung Quc ..........................................4
2.1.1. Khu vc nghin cu v v tr ly mu......................................................4
2.1.2. Phn tch d liu ......................................................................................5
2.1.3. Kt qu v c ch .....................................................................................6
2.1.4. Kt lun ..................................................................................................17
2.2. Kt hp m hnh ARIMA v mng Neuron nhn to d bo bi trong
khu vc th: Trng hp Temuco, Chile ................................................................ 18
2.2.1. Khu vc nghin cu ...............................................................................18
2.2.2. D liu v cu trc d liu .....................................................................19
2.2.3. Phn tch kt qu ....................................................................................22
2.2.4. Kt lun ..................................................................................................28
TI LIU THAM KHO ......................................................................................... 29

DANH MC CH VIT TT
ARIMA

AutoRegressive Integrate Moving Average

AR

M hnh t hi quy

MA

M hnh trung bnh ng

MLR

M hnh hi quy a tuyn tnh

Bayes

Bayesian Model Average

UFP

S phi nhim

ANN

Mng noron nhn to

MLP

Cu trc a lp

LM

Thut ton Levenberg-Marquardt

Cook

H s an ton

DFBETAS

H s hi quy

DFFITS

H s phn nh thay i ca gi tr d on

USEPA

C quan Bo v Mi trng Hoa K

MaxPM10ma

Nng bi PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a

ii

DANH MC HNH
Hnh 1. Bn Hng Chu v cc im ly mu. ......................................................5
Hnh 2. Lu lng giao thng trn cu cn Zhong He t 9 15/2/2009....................7
Hnh 3. Gi tr UFP, PM1.0, lu lng giao thng v nhn t thi tit bin thin
theo thi gian trong 3 loi thi tit khc nhau (tri trong, c my v c ma) .................10
Hnh 4. Cc biu khi qut v ngy 22 thng 2 nm 2009 (8h). Khu vc vng
trn tng trng cho v tr ly mu. Trong ngy, khu vc nghin cu l vng p sut
thp lin tc c gi ty bc lnh. Gi Frng m t pha ty nam i qua khu vc ny to
ma ln .............................................................................................................................. 10
Hnh 5. Mi lin quan gia tc gi, hng gi v ht siu nh (A.UFP v B.
PM1.0) trong thi gian theo di. S trn trc E i din cho tc gi (m/s). Cc ng
mu en rn i din cho con ng ly mu. ..................................................................11
Hnh 6. Trm quan trc Las Encinas Temuco, Chile .............................................19
Hnh 7. Nng bi PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a 24h quan trc theo chui
thi gian ti trm Las Encinas Temuco, Chile (21/07//2000 n 30/09/2006) ..............20
Hnh 8. M hnh s dng cc d liu kim nh cho MaxPM10ma 24h v d liu
kh tng t Temuca/ Las Encinas, Chile (t 01/04/2006 n 30/09/2006). So snh nng
MaxPM10ma 24h quan st v m hnh t: a) MLR, b) ARIMA-X, c) ANN, d) m
hnh kt hp ARIMA ANN ............................................................................................ 24
Hnh 9. Trung bnh d liu thi gian theo gi ca nng PM10 vo ma ng
Temuco, Chile ....................................................................................................................28

iii

DANH MC BNG BIU

Bng 1. Nng trung bnh ca cc ht siu nh v cc yu t kh tng trong thi
gian quan trc .......................................................................................................................7
Bng 2. Cc kt qu m hnh ARIMA ca UFP v PM1.0 theo d liu chui thi
gian .....................................................................................................................................12
Bng 3. Bng thng k cc d liu kh tng v cht lng khng kh thu c t
trm Temuco/ Las Encinas (21/07/2000 n 30/09/2006) ................................................20
Bng 4. D liu hiu chnh v kim nh thu c t trm Temuco/ Las Encinas
(21/07/2000 30/09/2006) ................................................................................................ 21
Bng 5. Tham s c tnh ca m hnh MLR i vi d liu hiu chnh PM10 t
trm Temuco/ Las Encinas (t 07/21 /2000 n 03/31/2006) ...........................................22
Bng 6. c lng tham s cho m hnh ARIMA (1,0,1)-X cho d liu hiu chnh
PM10 trm Temuco/ Las Encinas (t 07/21/2000 n 31/03/2006) .............................. 23
Bng 7. Thng k hiu sut m hnh cho cc d liu kim nh cho cc mu PM10
thu t trm Temuco/ Las Encinas t 01/04/2006 n 30/09/2006 ....................................24
Bng 8. M hnh MLR cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong bng di,
trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30 /09/2006 .............................................26
Bng 9. M hnh ARIMA (1,0,1)-X cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong
bng di, trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30/09/2006............................ 26
Bng 10. M hnh ANN cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong bng di,
trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30/09/2006 ..............................................26
Bng 11. M hnh kt hp cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong bng
di, trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30/09/2006 ....................................27

iv

1. M HNH ARIMA
1.1.

Tng quan

D bo l mt nhu cu khng th thiu cho nhng hot ng ca con ngi. D bo

s cung cp nhng c s cn thit cho cc hoch nh. Trong cng tc phn tch d bo,
vn quan trng hng u cn t ra l vic nm bt ti a thng tin v lnh vc d bo.
Thng tin y c th hiu mt cch c th gm : (1) cc s liu qu kh ca lnh vc d
bo, (2) din bin tnh hnh hin trng cng nh ng thi pht trin ca lnh vc d bo
v (3) nh gi mt cch y nht cc nhn t nh hng c v nh lng ln nh
tnh. Phng php d bo theo chui thi gian l mt phng php nh lng.
Phng php chui thi gian da trn vic phn tch chui quan st ca mt bin
duy nht theo bin s c lp l thi gian. Gi nh ch yu l bin s d bo s gi
nguyn chiu hng pht trin xy ra trong qu kh v hin ti.
M hnh ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrate Moving Average) do Box-Jenkins
ngh nm 1976, da trn m hnh t hi quy AR v m hnh trung bnh ng MA, l m
hnh d bo nh lng theo thi gian, gi tr tng lai ca bin s d bo s ph thuc
vo xu th vn ng ca i tng trong qu kh. M hnh ARIMA phn tch tnh
tng quan gia cc d liu quan st a ra m hnh d bo thng qua cc giai on
nhn dng m hnh, c lng cc tham s t d liu quan st v kim tra cc tham s
c lng tm ra m hnh thch hp. M hnh kt qu ca qu trnh trn gm cc tham
s th hin mc tng quan trn d liu, v c chn d bo gi tr tng lai.
Gii hn tin cy ca d bo c tnh da trn phng sai ca sai s d bo.

1.2.

M hnh ARIMA (Box-Jenkins)

M hnh ARIMA thng c dng trong nhiu lnh vc d bo cc kt qu

theo d liu chui thi gian.
M hnh ARIMA l s kt hp ca 3 thng s: t hi quy (AR), tch hp (I) v
trung bnh di chuyn (MA).
Phng php t hi quy, hay cn c k hiu l ARIMA(p,0,0) c th hin theo
phng trnh:
(1)

Trong , p l thi k t hi quy AR(p), Yt l gi tr d bo u ra, Yt-p l gi tr

quan st ti thi im t-p; 1, 2,, p l tp hp hu hn cc thng s. Gi tr c
xc nh bng hi quy tuyn tnh. Gi tr 0 l h s chn, v et l sai s hi quy.
Chui thi gian ny ch yu ph thuc vo gi tr p trong qu kh v 1 gi tr sai s
ngu nhin et.
Phng php trung bnh di chuyn, hay ARIMA(0,0,q) c th hin qua phng
trnh:
(2)
Trong , q l thi k trung bnh di chuyn, 1, 2,, q l tp hp hu hn cc
thng s, l gi tr trung bnh ca chui. Chui thi gian trung bnh ny ch ph thuc
vo thi k q ngu nhin trong qu kh v gi tr sai s ngu nhin et.
Trng hp c bit, phng php ARIMA(p,0,q) hay ARMA(p,q) l m hnh
chui thi gian ph thuc vo gi tr p thc t trong qu kh v gi tr q ngu nhin trong
qu kh vi sai s ngu nhin et, c th hin nh phng trnh:
(3)

Cui cng, m hnh ARIMA(p,d,q) l m hnh ARIMA(p,0,q) theo chui thi gian
c sai phn d ln. Tnh sai phn mt chui thi gian d ln lm cho n c tnh
dng v sau a n v dng m hnh ARMA(p, q). Khi bit cc gi tr ca p, d v q, ta
c th pht biu qu trnh no ang c lp m hnh.
im quan trng cn lu l s dng phng php lun Box-Jenkins, ta phi c
chui thi gian c tnh dng hay chui thi gian c tnh dng sau khi thc hin mt
hay nhiu php sai phn. L do ca gi thit v tnh dng c th c gii thch nh sau:
Mc tiu ca Box-Jenkins l xc nh v c lng mt m hnh thng k c th c
gii thch l to ra d liu mu. Nu sau m hnh c lng ny c s dng
d bo, ta phi gi thit rng cc c im ca m hnh ny khng i theo thi gian
v c bit l trong cc khong thi gian tng lai. Vy, l do n gin ca vic yu cu
d liu c tnh dng l bn thn mi m hnh suy lun t cc d liu ny c th c
gii thch l c tnh dng hay n nh, t cung cp c s c gi tr cho vic d bo.

1.3.

Cu trc d liu m hnh

xc nh m hnh ARIMA trong d bo, quy trnh c thc hin theo 4 bc:
Bc 1. Nhn dng: tm cc gi tr thch hp ca p, d v q, da vo biu tng
quan (correlogram) v biu tng quan ring phn (partial correlogram).
Bc 2. c lng: Sau khi nhn dng cc gi tr thch hp ca p v q, bc tip
theo l c lng cc thng s ca cc s hng t hi quy v trung bnh trt trong m
hnh. i khi php tnh ny c th c thc hin bng phng php bnh phng ti
thiu nhng i khi ta phi s dng cc phng php c lng phi tuyn (thng s phi
tuyn). Vic ny c th c thc hin t ng bng phn mm thng k.
Bc 3. Kim tra chn on: Sau khi la chn m hnh ARIMA c th v c
lng cc tham s ca n, ta tm hiu xem m hnh la chn c ph hp vi d liu
mc chp nhn hay khng bi v c th mt m hnh ARIMA khc cng ph hp vi d
liu. Cn phi c k nng tt la chn ng m hnh ARIMA. Mt kim nh n
gin v m hnh la chn l xem xem cc phn d c lng t m hnh ny c tnh
ngu nhin thun ty hay khng; nu c, ta c th chp nhn s ph hp ny ca m hnh;
nu khng, ta phi lp li t u: Nh vy, phng php lun Box - Jenkins l mt qu
trnh lp li.
Bc 4. D bo: Mt trong s cc l do v tnh ph bin ca phng php lp m
hnh ARIMA l thnh cng ca n trong d bo.
1.3.1. Nhn dng m hnh
Cc cng c ch yu nhn dng l hm t tng quan (ACF), hm t tng quan
ring phn (PACF), v cc biu tng quan v da vo cc hm ny.
Nu ACF ca chui thi gian hoc gim tht nhanh hoc gim dn kh nhanh th
gi tr ca chui thi gian c xem l dng. ngha chnh xc ca t kh nhanh v
tht chm ch yu da vo kinh nghim.
Sau khi xc nh c chui thi gian dng, tc xc nh c d, tin hnh sai
phn bc d to ra cc hm ACF v PACF. V th v xc nh p, q tng t da vo
gi tr khc khng c ngha v mt thng k.
1.3.2. c lng cc thng s
C bn c hai cch c lng cc tham s , :
3

1. Th v sai Xem xt nhiu gi tr khc nhau v chn gi tr (hay tp gi tr, nu

c lng nhiu hn mt tham s) sao cho tng ca nhng bnh phng phn d t gi
tr nh nht.
2. Ci thin lp - chn mt c lng ban u v chy bng mt chng trnh my
tnh tinh chnh c lng lp i lp li.
1.3.3. Kim nh m hnh
Sau khi c lng cc tham s ca mt m hnh ARIMA c nhn dng th,
chng ta cn phi kim nh kim nghim rng m hnh l thch hp. C hai cch thc
c bn thc hin iu ny:
1. Xem xt nhng phn d - xem n theo dng no cha c bit khng.
2. Xem xt nhng thng k ly mu ca gii php ti u hin ti (sai s chun, ma
trn tng quan...)-kim tra xem c th n gin ho m hnh khng.
1.3.4. D bo
Da vo gi tr chui thi gian theo thi on m ta c sn v m hnh ARIMA va
tm c, c th d dng d bo cho thi on tip theo.

2. NG DNG M HNH ARIMA TRONG D BO CHT LNG

KHNG KH TH
2.1.

ng dng m hnh ARIMA d bo nng bi siu nh t yu t

kh tng trn ng ph ng c ti Hng Chu, Trung Quc

2.1.1. Khu vc nghin cu v v tr ly mu

Hng Chu nm pha Nam ca bin Hng Chu, bin ng Trung Quc (Hnh 1).
Pha ng bc ng bng Hng Chu cao t 7 n 60 m so vi mc nc bin, pha ty
nam i ni bao quanh cao t 1 000 n 1 500 m so vi mc nc bin. Thnh ph Hng
Chu c kh hu gi ma cn nhit i vi bn ma r rt. Ma h m t v nng
(thng 6 - 8), ma ng m t v lnh (thng 12 - 2). Thi tit ma ng in hnh:
nhit trung bnh 4-6 C, lng ma 70-90 mm, 12-14 ngy ma / thng
(www.hzqx.com). iu tra gim st mi trng khng kh ny c tin hnh vo ma
ng thng 2 nm 2009 trong khong thi gian 7 ngy.
Cu cn Zhong He ta lc trung tm thnh ph Hng Chu, c 4 ln xe di chuyn
2 chiu. Chiu di 20 km vi 10 hng ra cho mi chiu lu thng. Cc im ly mu
gn pha bc ng Ring, gn trung im ca cu cn, v phn ny ca cu cn ch cch
4

mt t khong 5m. Trong vng bn knh cch im ly mu 80 m khng c nh ca,

trong thi gian o khng c cng trnh xy dng hoc bo dng ln cn. Cc im ny
c chn v n i din i qua trung tm thnh ph c lng giao thng ng c.

Hnh 1. Bn Hng Chu v cc im ly mu.

(ng mu en trong bn Hng Chu m rng i din cho on ng ly
mu v A l im ly mu.)
2.1.2. Phn tch d liu
Phn tch d liu c thc hin bng cch s dng SPSS. Thng k m t c
to ra cho cc bin c lin quan. Nh d liu UFP, PM1.0, tc gi, lng ma v o
nhit khng theo phn b chun, trung v c s dng m t nng trung bnh v
phm vi c s dng m t nng ti thiu v ti a (Min-Max) o trong thi gian
theo di. Bin phn phi chun c trnh by bng gi tr trung bnh v lch chun
(SD). Phng trnh cho cng o ngc Trung Quc c a ra nh sau: cng
o = chnh lch nhit theo chiu dc t trn xung theo lp ( C) chiu su
(chiu cao) ca lp o ngc (m).
Phn tch nng ca UFP v PM1.0 theo chui thi gian c p dng tm ra
bn cht mi quan h gia nng ca UFP v PM1.0 v cc bin s khc. C th d
bo kh tng thng qua nhit , m tng i, tc gi, hng gi, p sut kh
quyn v lng ma. Php hi quy da vo phn tch chui thi gian c s dng
xc nh nhng thay i ca UFP hoc PM1.0 trn ng ph ng c c th d bo
bng cch thay i ng thi cc bin o kh tng. kim nh d bo ny, s dng
5

m hnh ARIMA. C s chp nhn chung rng m hnh ARIMA gii thch cc d liu tt
hn bng cch lm gim gi tr sai s d (Wei, 2006).
Ngi ta xc nh rng nng UFP c m t tt nht bng m hnh ARIMA
sai phn bc 1 v trung bnh trt, trong khi PM1.0 c m phng tt nht bi m hnh
ARIMA theo ma bng sai phn bc 1. nh gi m hnh bng s liu thng k LjungBox, hay cn c gi l thng k Box-Pierce. nh gi mc t ca m hnh bng
gi tr R2 (h s xc nh). Thng k Ljung-Box kim tra gi thuyt khng cn t tng
quan trong s d ca m hnh v cung cp mt ch s cho bit m hnh c xc nh
mt cch chnh xc. Gi tr p > 0.05 cho bit m hnh c xc nh chnh xc m t
cc thng tin tng quan theo chui thi gian (Ljung v Box, 1978). tnh ton ch s
gi (Ziomas & nnk, 1995) cn nh lng cc thng tin lin quan n hng gi - WD
(hng gi c gc dao ng t 0 n 360):
(4)
WDindex cho gi tr dao ng t 0 2, trong (rad) l hng gi ban u. Trong
trng hp WDindex = 0 nu gi theo hng Ty Bc (NW), v WDindex = 2 l hng gi
ng Nam (SE). Mt phn tch khc c tin hnh sau m phng m bo chun
ca s d khng t tng quan hoc tng quan mt phn. Hn na, thm vo m hnh
cc d liu s lng xe v tc lu thng vi mc ch gim st cc tc ng chung c
th xy ra bi cc nhn t giao thng.
2.1.3. Kt qu v c ch
a. Lu lng giao thng, UFP, PM1.0 v cc thng s kh tng
Theo c s d liu gim st xe Hng Chu ca Trung tm Qun l v iu khin
giao thng, trong thi gian kho st, tc ca xe trung bnh l 84 km/gi v mt giao
thng trn cu cn Zhong He dao ng t 3538 n 4417 xe/ gi, trong xe ng c
diesel chim khong 2-3%. Mt xe bt u tng sau 6 gi v cao nht ti 8h v 17h.
Ngoi ra, mt xe thp hn mc cc i vo khong 13 h (Hnh 2). S xe trung bnh (p>
0.05) gia cc ngy trong tun (3593 mi gi) v ngy ngh cui tun (3767 mt gi)
trong thng theo di (2/ 2009) thay i khng ng k. Lu lng giao thng ng c
vo cc ngy trong tun v cui tun phn nh li sng bn rn ca ngi dn sng
quanh thnh ph hin i ny.
6

Hnh 2. Lu lng giao thng trn cu cn Zhong He t 9 15/2/2009

Nng trung bnh ca cc ht siu nh (UFP v PM1.0) v cc yu t kh tng
(nhit , m tng i, p sut khng kh, tc gi, hng gi v lng ma) c
th hin trong Bng 1. Nng trung bnh ca UFP v PM1.0 l 46529 ht/ cm3 (18453147350 ht/ cm3) v 204 g/ m3 (31 g/ m3 - 439 g/ m3), tng ng trn cu cn Zhong
He trong thi gian o. Lin quan n cc thng s thi tit, nhit trung bnh trong
khong thi gian o l 13.1C, m tng i l 84.3%, kh p l 1010.5 hPa, tc
gi l 2.9 m/s vi hng gi ch yu t pha ty bc (NW, 330 ), v ma rt him. Vo
bui chiu, c nhit v tc gi c xu hng tng, nhng m tng i v p sut
kh quyn c xu hng gim. o nhit c quan st hng ngy trong thng 2 nm
2009, v cng o nhit trung bnh l 1.1 (0.5-4.7) C-m. S o nhit xy ra vo
bui sng c th ng gp cho nng tng i cao ca cc ht siu nh.
Bng 1. Nng trung bnh ca cc ht siu nh v cc yu t kh tng trong thi
gian quan trc
Gi tr trung bnh
ngy a
UFP (ht/cm3)
46 529
(18 453 147 350)
3
PM1.0 (g/ m )
204 (31 439)
o
Nhit ( C)
13.1 (1.9)
m tng i 84.3 (10.4)
(%)

Bui sng

Bui chiu

53 163
(24 330 147 350)
295 (128 439)
12.7 (1.3)
85.2 (8.5)

42 275
(18 453 97 431)
161 (31 331)
13.4 (2.4)
83.4 (12.0)

p sut khng kh 1 010.5 (4.5)

1 010.9 (4.6)
1 010.2 (4.4)
(hPa)
Tc gi (m/s)
2.9 (0.6 5.0)
2.0 (0.6 5.0)
3.5 (1.6 4.9)
Lng ma (mm)
0.0 (0.0 7.0)
0.0 (0.0 7.0)
0.0 (0.0 5.0)
Cng o nhit 1.1 (0.5 4.7)
1.3 (0.6 4.7)
0.9 (0.5 2.4)
o -m b
(C )
a
Trung v (Min-Max) cho UFP, PM1.0, tc xoay v v lng ma; Gi tr trung
bnh (SD) cho nhit , m tng i, p sut kh quyn, v cng o nhit.
b
Cng o nhit = chnh lch nhit theo phng ng (C) / chiu cao ca lp
o nhit (m).
Hu ht cc ht siu nh l nhng cht gy nhim khng kh c ngun gc t kh
thi xe c (Lee & nnk, 2006;. Morawska & nnk, 2008;.. Pirjola & nnk, 2004), nhng cc
nghin cu v UFP hoc kh thi PM.1.0 trn ng giao thng tng i khan him, c
bit l cc nc ang pht trin.
S dng nhiu cng c TSI (bao gm CPC 3007), Westerdahl v cc ng nghip
o nng UFP trn nhng con ng Los Angeles (Westerdahl & nnk, 2005). Nng
dao ng t 33 000 n 240 000 ht/ cm3 v t mc cao nht l 800 000 ht/ cm3.
Kt qu cho thy rng nng UFP cao tng quan vi mt giao thng xe cao. Mt
cuc kho st ly mu di ng c tin hnh Montreal (Weichenthal & nnk., 2008) o
mc UFP bng P-Trak 8525. Cc bo co trn mt tuyn xe but cho thy s lng
UFP l 15 780 n 38 348 ht/ cm3 vi lu lng giao thng 2000 xe/ gi. Mt nghin
cu trn ng vi mt xe tng t (2248 xe mi gi) ti trung tm London (Kaur v
Nieuwenhuijsen, 2009) o UFP vi P-Traks v bo co nng UFP khong 36 679 n
151 810 ht/ cm3.
Morawska v cc ng nghip bo co rng cc tiu chun cht lng khng kh
xung quanh c ch bao gm PM2.5 v PM10, thng c to ra bi qu trnh c hc;
do , vic kim sot cc ht siu nh pht ra t ngun chy l khng c tc dng. H
cho rng PM1.0 v PM10 gy nguy c cao hn khi kt hp cc tiu chun khi lng ht
(Morawska & nnk, 2008). Hin nay c rt t d liu c sn theo di mc pht thi
PM1.0 (Keogh & nnk, 2010;. Morawska & nnk, 2008.). Mt nghin cu c tin hnh
ti khu vc th ca mt thnh ph ven bin cho bit nng PM1.0 t 16 n
23g/ m3 (Ariola & nnk, 2006). Mt nghin cu khc o PM1.0 ti khun vin trng
i hc Hong Kong. Nng ca PM1.0 dao ng t 59 n 85g/ m3 vi trung bnh
35.9 ( 12.4) g/m3 (Lee & nnk., 2006)
8

Trong nghin cu ny, nng UFP quan st cao hn so vi bo co trong cc

nghin cu c tin hnh Gothenburg, Copenhagen, EI Paso, Copenhagen, Montreal
v Toronto (Beckerman & nnk, 2008;.. Molnar v cng s, 2002;. Noble v cng s,
2003 ; Wahlin, 2009;. Weichenthal & nnk, 2008), nhng thp hn so vi nghin cu
London v Los Angeles (Kaur v Nieuwenhuijsen, 2009;. Kuhn v cng s, 2005;.
Westerdahl v cng s, 2005). Ngoi ra, mc trung bnh ca PM1.0 quan st trong
nghin cu ny cao hn so vi Hng Kng, Santa Cruz de Tenerife v Genoa (Ariola &
nnk, 2006;. Lee & nnk, 2006;. Perez v cng s., 2010; Rodriguez v cng s, 2008;..
Shen v cng s, 2010; Wahlin, 2009). Nh thit b o P-Trak ch o ht t 0.02 m n
1 m, v vy lu lng cc ht siu nh cng b nh hng bi o lng, nhng ht 0.02
m c th thp.
Hnh 3 minh ha mt phn tch v s bin thin thi gian ca 2 loi ht siu nh v
mi lin h ca chng vi lu lng giao thng v cc yu t kh tng trong 3 ngy
quan trc vi 3 iu kin thi tit khc nhau, tri trong, c my (u m) v c ma ln. S
bin thin nng UFP tng quan vi lu lng giao thng trong ngy trong xanh.
Mc phn ng ca ht UFP nhy hn PM1.0 trong vic phn nh mc kh thi t
xe c. S bin thin nng ht siu nh trong ngy nhiu my v ngy ma khng th
gii thch n gin bi lng kh thi giao thng. Yu t kh tng r rng ng vai tr
trong s gia tng ca cc ht siu nh. Ngoi tng lu lng giao thng gy nh hng
n s bin thin nng ca UFP v PM1.0, th p sut khng kh gim, tc gi v
lng ma tng c th gy tc ng phc tp. Vo ngy ma (ngy 22 thng 2), c im
v s bin thin ca cc ht khc vi 2 ngy trc . Vo ngy ny, khu vc nghin cu
lin tc chu nh hng ca vng p thp vi sc gi Ty Bc lnh. Mt frng m t pha
ty nam i qua khu vc trong ngy dn n ma ln (Hnh 4). Ma lin tc trong 18 gi,
t 6h - 24h. Ma ln (23 mm) lc 6h v gim xung 15 mm lc 7h. Ma ln trng vi
mc thp tng i ca UFPs lc 9h. Hn na, lng ma tng i nng (10, 15, 18
v 8 mm/ gi, tng ng) t 11h n 14h trng vi s gia tng tc gi t pha ty bc
(NW, 339 ). C gi v ma c kh nng lm gim nng ht vo bui chiu mc d
lu lng giao thng tng.

Hnh 3. Gi tr UFP, PM1.0, lu lng giao thng v nhn t thi tit bin thin
theo thi gian trong 3 loi thi tit khc nhau (tri trong, c my v c ma)

Hnh 4. Cc biu khi qut v ngy 22 thng 2 nm 2009 (8h). Khu vc vng
trn tng trng cho v tr ly mu. Trong ngy, khu vc nghin cu l vng p sut
thp lin tc c gi ty bc lnh. Gi Frng m t pha ty nam i qua khu vc ny to
ma ln
nh hng ca hng gi v tc gi ln mt cc ht siu nh c trnh
trong Hnh 5. Trong hnh ny, tc gi c th hin bng vng trn ng tm vi tc
10

 (m/s) tng t vng trn bn trong n vng trn bn ngoi. Kch thc ht (ht/ cm3
cho UFP v mg/ m3 cho PM1.0) c th hin bng vng trn nh nm pha trn vng
trn ng tm. T kt qu ny, r rng l trong thi gian nghin cu hng gi ch yu
t pha ty bc xung ng nam. C nng UFPs v PM1.0 c tng quan nghch vi
tc gi, nng UFPs v PM1.0 cao tng ng vi tc gi thp. N cng ch ra
rng, trong thi gian quan trc, hng gi chim u th cc im ly mu l gi Ty
Bc (330) gn nh song song vi tuyn ng ly mu. Do , nh hng ca hng
gi trn UFP v PM1.0 cng khng r rng nh l cc yu t kh tng khc c cp
trn.

Hnh 5. Mi lin quan gia tc gi, hng gi v ht siu nh (A.UFP v B.

PM1.0) trong thi gian theo di. S trn trc E i din cho tc gi (m/s). Cc ng
mu en rn i din cho con ng ly mu.
Phn tch trn cho thy nng trung bnh ca cc ht siu nh trong khng kh
th khng ch b nh hng bi mt giao thng m cn bi cc yu t kh tng. Nh
nh hng ca mt giao thng v tc xe c trnh by chi tit nhng nghin
11

cu trc (Jian & nnk, 2011), nghin cu ny tp trung vo tho lun v tc ng ca cc

yu t kh tng trn UFP v PM1.0. nh hng ca cc yu t khc, ngoi ra cn ccc
tc ng khc: tc xe (Holmen v Qu, 2004; Jian v cng s, 2011; Ristovski & nnk,
2005.)., M hnh xe, nm v nhin liu (Kerminen v cng s, 2007;.. Morawska v cng
s, 1998), ly mu v tr, khong cch t ng giao thng (s) v phng php ly mu
(bn ng/ i b/ trong xe) (Beckerman & nnk, 2008;. Hagler & nnk, 2009. ; Kerminen
v cng s, 2007).
b. nh hng ca cc yu t kh tng trn PM1.0 v UFP v c ch
Kt qu ca m hnh ARIMA i vi cc nh hng ca yu t kh tng ng
bin vi nng UFP v PM1.0 c th hin trong Bng 2. Gi tr R2 l 0.640 cho m
hnh UFP v 0.820 cho PM1.0, chng t rng m hnh thng k cho thy c trn 64%
nng UFP v 82% nng PM1.0 bin thin. Kt qu chng minh rng c hai m
hnh ARIMA c thit lp nh gi tc ng ca cc yu t kh tng trn cc ht
siu nh. Hn na, gi tr p ca s liu thng k Ljung-Box cho c hai m hnh u ln
hn 0.05 (p = 0.636 v 0.943, tng ng), cho thy khng cn kt qu t tng quan no
ng k c tm thy trong cc s d ca cc m hnh. V vy chng ti tin rng c hai
m hnh c quy nh mt cch chnh xc v nm bt y t tng quan hin c
trong chui thi gian UFP v PM1.0.
Bng 2. Cc kt qu m hnh ARIMA ca UFP v PM1.0 theo d liu chui thi
gian
UFP
(1000 ht cm-3)*
Thng s thit
P
lp (S.E)
-1

Nhit ( oC)
m tng
i (%)
p sut kh
quyn (hPa)
Vn tc gi (ms1
)
Hng gi
(index)

PM1.0
(g m-3)#
Thng s thit
lp (S.E)

4.983 (1.543)

0.002

4.004 (1.808)

0.029

0.792 (0.235)

0.001

0.323 (0.111)

0.004

-5.458 (2.256)

0.017

-3.562 (1.768)

0.046

-4.940 (2.236)

0.040

-6.426 (2.188)

0.004

-2.214 (1.298)

0.091

-0.865 (3.551)

0.808

12

Lng ma
-0.340 (0.355)
(mm)
*ARIMA(0,1,1): R2 =0.640, p = 0.636
#
ARIMA(0,1,1): R2 =0.820, p = 0.943

0.340

-1.000 (0.945)

0.292

Kt qu t m hnh ARIMA cho thy nhit , m, tc gi, v p sut kh

quyn l yu t d bo quan trng trong d bo nng UFP v PM1.0 nhng hng gi
v lng ma khng tc ng ng k n phn tch thng k trn c hai cht gy
nhim. C th, sau khi kim sot bin s khc, nng trung bnh UFP tng 4 983 ht/
cm3 khi tng nhit ln 1C, v 792 ht cm3 khi tng 1% m tng i. UFP d kin
s gim 5 458 ht/ cm3 khi tng 1 hPa p sut, v 4 940 ht/ cm3 khi tc gi tng 1 m/s.
Tng t, khi tng nhit ln 1C hoc tng 1% m, nng PM1.0 c tng 4 mg/
m3 hoc 0.32 mg/ m3 tng ng. Tng 1 hPa p sut v tc gi tng 1 m/s, PM1.0
c c tnh gim gn 3.3 g/ m3 v 6.4 g/ m3 tng ng.
Khi cc yu t kh tng c tc ng n cc ht siu nh trong khng kh th vic
thu thp cc d liu kh tng rt quan trng trong qu trnh nh gi cht lng khng
kh. Theo nhng hiu bit ca chng ti, trc cha c nghin cu no p dng m
hnh ARIMA d on lng kh thi ca cc ht siu nh quanh tuyn ng giao
thng. Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu hn ch s dng cc m hnh thng k khc nh
gi nh hng ca cc yu t kh tng trn lng kh thi ca cc ht siu nh t cc
ngun giao thng. V d, Weichenthal v nnk s dng m hnh trung bnh theo thuyt
Bayes (Bayesian Model Average) d on nh hng ca nhit v tc gi i
vi s phi nhim UFP (Weichenthal & nnk, 2008). Mt nghin cu khc s dng m
hnh tuyn tnh n bin bao gm phn tch hi quy v phn tch phng sai (ANOVA)
(Kaur v Nieuwenhuijsen, 2009). Hai nghin cu trn cng cho kt qu tng quan
nghch gia nhit v tc gi vi nng UFP. Charron v Harrison (2003) nh
gi nh hng ca tc gi, nhit trn UFPs bng cch s dng m hnh hi quy
tuyn tnh n gin. H nhn thy rng t l kch thc ht 11-30 nm/100-450 nm tng
khi gi mnh nhng gim khi nhit tng. Jamriska v cng s ng dng phn loi v
cy hi quy (CART) v m hnh ha cc mi quan h gia UFPs, giao thng v d liu
thi tit (Jamriska & nnk, 2008). Kt qu cho thy ngoi kh thi giao thng, tng nng
UFP (15-880 nm) b nh hng bi tc gi, m tng i v nhit . Nhit
13

khng kh nh hng ng k cc ht c kch thc t 15 n 30 nm. S gim nhit

cng nh tng kch thc ht v tng m tng i ng vai tr l nhn t mnh.
Ngoi ra, cc nghin cu c cng b ch yu l bo co tc ng ca nhit , m,
tc gi, hng gi trn cc cht nhim khng kh, nhng him khi iu tra nh
hng ca p sut khng kh trn cc sol kh kh quyn.
Mt pht hin th v t nghin cu ny l p sut kh quyn tng quan nghch vi
nng ca cc ht siu nh (PM1.0 v UFP). Trong khu vc nghin cu, h thng p
sut thp trng vi s gia tng nng ht siu nh trong khng kh v ngc li. Phn
thp nht ca tng i lu chu nh hng ca b mt tri t, lp bin hnh tinh (PBL)
dao ng nhanh v nh hng mnh bi p sut khng kh, tc gi, nhit , v m.
S bin ng c th c li hoc bt li i vi mc nhim khng kh trong cch
hnh thnh, pht trin, di chuyn hoc phn tn (Grimsdell v Angevine nm 1998;
Hussein & nnk, 2006). Tuy nhin, c ch c bn v nh hng ca p sut khng kh trn
cc ht siu nh trong khng kh cha c hiu y v rt phc tp. Cc mi tng
quan ca p sut khng kh, tc gi, nhit v m vi nng ht siu nh c
tm thy trong nghin cu ny cho thy rng ngoi cc kh thi t cc phng tin, nh
hng ca p sut kh quyn vi cc yu t kh tng khc ng vai tr quan trng i
vi nng ca cc ht siu nh trong kh quyn.
p sut kh quyn c lin quan n mt khng kh v nh hng bi nhit ,
m, gi, cao v v . Ni chung, mt vng p sut khng kh thp thng i c m
cao, nhiu my v c ma (US National Weather Service, 2009). Mt v d v iu kin
thi tit tng t c trnh by trong Hnh 3 v Hnh 4 (trong ngy ma). Hn na, mt
lung gi thi ln (updraft) do nhit m buc khng kh gn mt t di chuyn ln v
do to ra p thp a phng. Cc lung gi ln m c th to ra my bao ph cc cht
nhim khng kh, do c th gy kh khn trong vic phn tn theo chiu dc. m
cao cng lm cho cc ht siu nh ngng t v ng t, c bit, di s phn tng n
nh ca lp ranh gii vi s pha trn t theo lp cao (Celada v Salcido, 2008;
Hussein v cc cng s, 2006;.. Jamriska v cng s, 2008; Salmond v McKendry,
2005).
Tng quan thun gia m tng i v ht siu nh quan st thy trong cc m
hnh ARIMA, tng quan nghch gia m tng i v p sut khng kh (r = - 0.589,
14

p < 0.001) v biu khi qut (Hnh 4) cho rng iu kin thi tit m t thng i
km vi p sut khng kh thp. m cao v p sut khng kh thp c th gp phn
hnh thnh v pht trin UFP. Ngoi ra, m cao v mt khng kh thp c th lm
gim lng oxy trong kh quyn, do lm gim hiu sut chy ng c v dn n t l
pht thi bi than cao hn (Jamriska et al., 2008). Mt s nghin cu iu tra tc ng
ca m ln s hnh thnh UFP. m tng i cao hn lm tng xc sut hnh thnh,
v dn n s gia tng nng UFP (Easter v Peters, 1994; Mejia v Morawska, 2009).
SO2, H2SO4 v sulfat l tin thn cho s hnh thnh UFP. Sipila v nnk bo co rng, khi
thnh phn ht nhn ln, nng axit sunfuric dng kh cn phi c trn 106 phn t/
cm3 cho php hnh thnh ht mi (Sipila et al., 2010). Cht gy nhim khc, chng
hn nh cht hu c d bay hi gp phn vo s pht trin ht. Cc ht pht trin sau ht
nhn c tm thy nhanh hn t 8-13 ln, c th c gii thch bi s ngng t ca
H2SO4 kt hp pha long (Weber, 1997).
Tinh lc ma l mt trong nhng c ch quan trng nht loi b cc cht
nhim trong kh quyn. N xy ra khi nhng git ma tng tc vi cc ht vt cht v
cc cht nhim khng kh bng cch hp th khi c tc ng ca lng trng lc (Shukla
et al., 2008). Mt v d v tc ng ca ma trn ht ln trong kh quyn l mt nghin
cu 3 nm thc hin ti Rome. Nghin cu ny bo co rng tng mc ht ri khong 50 %
khi ma ln (Mattiot v Scafe, 1999). iu th v l, mt nghin cu tin hnh n
quan st thy mt ht kch thc 10-100 nm gia tng mnh trong giai on bo v
cng ln hn vi cc ht c ng knh ln hn (Pawar et al., 2011). Mt nghin cu
khc London cho thy nng ca UFPs nh hn 100 nm (Dp 50 nm) tng ln khi
tri ma, v t mc cao nht trong vng 1 gi sau cn ma (Charron v Harrison, 2003).
Hu v cng s bo co kt qu tng t trong nghin cu Bc Kinh. H quan st thy
rng trong khi cc ht tng i ln (> 30 nm) c lng ng bi ma, PNCb 20 nm
thc s tng ln trong trng hp ma v trong vng 9 gi sau khi ma (Hu et al., 2006).
T nhng nghin cu ny ch ra rng trong khi cc ht tng i ln c th c gim
bi hiu ng tinh lc t ma, cc ht nhn nh UFP c th tng ln trong v sau thi gian
ma. Trong nghin cu ny, ma rt him trong thi gian o. V vy, lng ma khng
c ngha thng k trn UFPs trong cc m hnh ARIMA. Do , cn phi p dng m

15

hnh ny trong mt nghin cu quy m ln xc nhn tc ng ca lng ma v cc

yu t kh tng khc trn UFP v PM1.0.
S tng quan tch cc quan st thy gia nhit v nng ht siu nh rt phc
tp. Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu trc y ch ra rng nhit cng vi m tng
i nh hng n t l hnh thnh v c im ha hc ca sol kh hu c th cp
(SOA). V d, Nguyen v cc cng s. (2011) pht hin ra rng m tng i nh
hng n thnh phn ha hc ca SOA bao gm ht nhn ngng t my (CCN) hot
ng. Trong nghin cu ny, SOA hnh thnh trong iu kin m t th hin hot ng
CNN tt v ngc li. V d v s hnh thnh phn t mi khi tng nhit t phn ng
quang ha c quan st thy trong cc nghin cu tin hnh ti Bc Kinh, London, St
Louis v Barcelona (Hu v cng s, 2006;. Perez v cng s nm 2010, ;. Qian v cng
s, 2007;. Vehkamaki et al., 2004). Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu khc bo co mt mi
tng quan nghch gia nhit v cc ht siu nh nh cc nghin cu Helsinki (Happo
v cng s, 2010 ;.. Hussein v cc cng s, 2006), nghin cu London (Kaur v
Nieuwenhuijsen, 2009), nghin cu Montreal (Weichenthal et al, 2008.), cc Corpus
Christi v cc nghin cu Los Angeles (Kuhn v cng s, 2005;.. Wang v cng s,
2008). Trong khi nghin cu Gothenburg khng tm thy mi tng quan ng k
gia nhit , m tng i, bc x mt tri v ma v giao thng lin quan n kh
thi UFP (Molnar et al., 2002). Nghin cu Helsinki (Hussein v cc cng s., 2006)
cng khng th tm thy mi tng quan gia nng ht v m tng i hoc p
sut kh quyn.
S tng trng hay thu nh ca UFPs l, v mt l thuyt, xc nh bi s cn bng
ca p sut hi v cng c gi l hiu ng Kelvin (Heidenreich v Buttner nm 1995;
Kuz nm 1995; Lewis, 2006;. Zhu et al, 2002). Mt tc dng na ca vic ti phn b
khi lng, hoc cc ht nh vo ht ln c gi l ht Ostwald. Do , kt qu t
nhng n lc gim nng lng din tch b mt, c th din ra trong bnh xt vi kch
c khc nhau c li cho tng trng ht (Alloyeau et al, 2010;. Madras v McCoy, 2001).
Tuy nhin, nghin cu v nh hng Kelvin v Ostwald chn trn UFPs khng kh thc
s l khan him.
Vn chuyn theo chiu ngang v theo chiu dc v vn tc ca s hn lon rt quan
trng trong s phn tn ca cc cht nhim khng kh. Tc gi thp gy ra tnh trng
16

tr tr cng vi o ngc nhit , mt s kin thng xy ra vo cc bui sng ma

ng, ng h s tch t ca cc cht nhim khng kh (Dharshana et al, 2010 ;.. Garcia
v cng s, 2007; Kerminen et al, 2007.). Trong thi gian nghin cu, tc gi tng
i thp cng vi nhit thp gp phn gy o ngc nhit xy ra vo bui sng. R
rng, tc ng ca nhit trn nng cao ca cc ht siu nh khng th b qua
(Kerminen et al., 2007). Nghin cu ny cng quan st thy pha long nh hng ca tc
gi trn UFP v PM1.0. Quan st tng t v nh hng ca tc gi cao hay thp
trn UFPs cng c bo co trong cc nghin cu kh thi giao thng (Charron v
Harrison, 2003;. Hagler et al, 2009 ;. Kerminen et al, 2007; Noble v cng al, 2003;.
Wang v cng s, 2008;.. Weichenthal v cng s, 2008).
Mc d thiu s tng quan gia hng gi v nng ht siu nh trong m hnh
ARIMA (xem yu t gp phn cp trn), hng gi nn c xem xt trong thit k
nghin cu trong tng lai khi la chn cc mng li o. L do l cc m hnh ca UFP
su khc nhau gia hng gi i ln v hng gi i xung a phng. Mt nghin cu
trc y bo co rng pha bn theo hng gi i xung, UFP gim dn khi tng
khong cch vi ng; trong khi pha bn hng gi i ln, UFP t n mc nn
trong mt khong cch ngn (Beckerman et al., 2008).
Mc d bi vit ny ch yu tp trung vo iu tra tc ng ca cc yu t kh
tng trn cc ht siu nh, m hnh ARIMA b sung bao gm cc yu t kh tng v
cc yu t giao thng (s xe v tc li xe) c tin hnh quan trc tt c cc
yu t trn UFP v PM1.0. Cc kt qu m hnh (khng c trnh by) ch ra rng tm
quan trng v nh hng tc ng ca cc yu t kh tng trn hai ch s khng thay
i, thm ch sau khi kim sot cc yu t giao thng, m c nh hng trc tip ln
nng UFP v PM1.0. Mc d nghin cu ny chn mng li giao thng ng c,
nh hng t cc yu t khc khng bao gm trong m hnh ARIMA trn UFP v PM1.0
khng th loi tr. V vy, cn c cc nghin cu trong tng lai khm ph nhng yu
t tim nng.
2.1.4. Kt lun
Kt qu t m hnh nghin cu ny cho thy cc yu t kh tng l yu t d bo
quan trng trong d bo nng ca cc ht siu nh trong kh quyn bn l ng. S
tng tc phc tp gia p sut khng kh, tc gi, m v nhit c th nh
17

hng n nng theo t l mc cc cht nhim khng kh thng qua cc ht nhn,

s ngng t, ng c, chuyn ti v phn tn cc ht t pht thi giao thng. Kch thc
cc k nh v din tch b mt ln ca cc ht siu nh c c tnh d thng so vi cc
ht ln hn. Cc cht siu nh gy nhim khng kh tch ly trong iu kin thi tit
khng thun li c kh nng tip xc v lng ng su hn vo phi v gy nh hng
n sc khe.
Trung Quc l mt t nc pht trin nhanh v lu lng giao thng d kin s
tip tc tng nhanh trong nhng nm qua. Kt qu t nghin cu ny cng vi bo co
gn y (Jian & nnk, 2011) c th cung cp mt cch tip cn ph hp vi d bo mc
bi UFP v PM1.0 trong kh quyn bn ng

2.2.

Kt hp m hnh ARIMA v mng Neuron nhn to d bo bi

trong khu vc th: Trng hp Temuco, Chile

2.2.1. Khu vc nghin cu

Temuco l th ph ca vng Araucana, Chile, dn s khong 300 000 ngi, l
mt trong nhng thnh ph nhim nht Nam M. Thnh ph ny nm trung tm
pha Nam Chile, cch u gia Thi Bnh Dng v dy ni Andes. Thnh ph tri di
theo ven sng Cautn, gia hai ngn i Nielol (350 m) v Conunhueno (360 m). Nm
trong vng c kh hu n i a Trung Hi, ma quanh nm, lng ma cao nht vo
ma ng, t hn vo ma h.
Temuco c tc th pht trin nhanh chng, tng trng kinh t nhanh; kh thi
ngun cng nghip, kh thi xe v kh thi phc v un nu tng nhanh. Nm 2005,
Temuco tuyn b nng bi PM10 khng t chun. Gn 70% dn s s dng lng g
t rng a phng nu n v si m trong ma ng. c tnh c khong 87%
lng kh thi c ngun gc t vic t g (Sanhueza & nnk, 2005). Nm 2006, c 15
trong s hn 60 ngy (giai on 2001 2006) c nng bi PM10 vt qu tiu chun
quy nh ca Chile 150 g/m3.
Temuco ch c mt trm quan trc cht lng khng kh. Trm Las Encinas nm
trung tm trong khu dn c mi, cch trung tm thnh ph 2.7 km v pha ty (Hnh 6).
y, nhit , m tng i, hng gi v tc gi c thu theo gi. B gim st
o bi PM10 theo gi. Lng ma hng ngy, p sut kh quyn v bc x c ly t
18

cc trm kh tng t ti i hc Catholic cch trm quan trc 2km v pha ng bc v

cch trung tm thnh ph 1km v pha ty bc.

Hnh 6. Trm quan trc Las Encinas Temuco, Chile

2.2.2. D liu v cu trc d liu
a. D liu thu thp
Cc bin kh tng xy dng m hnh c sn t hai trm gm: nhit ti thiu
(Tmin, oC); nhit ti a (Tmax, oC); m tng i (RH, %); tc gi (WS, m/s);
bc x mt tri (R, Wh/m2day); p sut kh quyn (P, hPa); v lng ma (PP, mm). Gi
tr nng bi PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a mi ngy (MaxPM10ma) c tnh
theo gi v thc hin phn tch thng k cc d liu trn s dng h s khong cch
Cook v DFFITS v DFBETAS.
Hnh 7 cho thy bi PM10 di chuyn ti a 24h vi nng trung bnh trong t
thng 7 nm 2000 n thng 9 nm 2006 Temuco.

19

Hnh 7. Nng bi PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a 24h quan trc theo chui
thi gian ti trm Las Encinas Temuco, Chile (21/07//2000 n 30/09/2006)
b. X l d liu
S liu thng k ca cht lng khng kh v cc d liu kh tng c th hin
trong Bng 3. Bng ny bao gm nng bi PM10 ti a 1h, PM10 trung bnh 24h v
PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a 24h.
Bng 3. Bng thng k cc d liu kh tng v cht lng khng kh thu c t
trm Temuco/ Las Encinas (21/07/2000 n 30/09/2006)
Trung bnh

lch chun

Max

Min

PM10 ti a 1h, g/m3

166.5

168.5

1 164.0

6.0

PM10 24h, g/m3

48.5

39.6

321.3

5.3

63.0

50.2

353.4

4.1

Tmin, oC

7.4

3.7

16.6

-4.9

Tmax, oC

17.4

5.3

37.4

2.8

Tc gi WS, m/s

1.9

0.9

6.9

0.3

PP, mm

3.3

7.6

78.6

0.0

m tng i, %

80.5

8.7

100.0

52.0

Bc x mt tri, W/m2

3 755

2 438

9 185

135

p sut, mbar

1 003

1 018

986

Bin

PM10 trung bnh di chuyn

ti a, g/m3

Bin MaxPM10ma l bin ph thuc, theo phn phi chun logarit v c ly theo
ma. Theo C quan Bo v Mi trng Hoa K (USEPA) v cc nghin cu khc
20

(USEPA, 2003;. Stadlober & nnk, 2008) th vic s dng hm logarit chun ha d
liu nhm ci thin tnh hiu qu ca m hnh. Sau khi nghin cu lch, thc hin hm
phn tch chuyn i logarit t nhin to ra phn phi chun cho cc bin. Cc bin
khc lin quan n PM10 cng c to ra: PM10 ti a hng gi ca ngy trc
(L1PM10, g/m3), PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a 6h ca ngy trc (L6PM10,
g/m3), ti a 12h (L12PM10, g/m3), v ti a 24h (L24PM10, g/m3). Tip theo,
chun ha cc d liu c t l ging nhau dc theo mi trc khong cch u vo; c
phng sai l hng s cho mi bin. Phn tch ny c thc hin cho tt c cc m hnh,
ging nh mt s nghin cu trc (Menezes v Nikolaev , 2006; . Piotrowski & nnk,
2006; Gutirrez-Estrada & nnk, 2008).
D liu c chia thnh 2 phn: 92% cho hiu chnh v 8% kim nh (Bng 4).
S dng m hnh mng noron nhn to ANN cho phn hiu chnh.
Bng 4. D liu hiu chnh v kim nh thu c t trm Temuco/ Las Encinas
(21/07/2000 30/09/2006)
D liu

S mu quan trc

Thi gian bt u

Thi gian kt thc

Hiu chnh

2080

21/07/2000

31/03/2006

Kim nh

183

01/04/2006

30/09/2006

c. Cu trc d liu m hnh

M hnh MLR bao gm cc bin d bo chun, bin d bo c lp v v bin d
bo chun ha c ngha thng k: PM10 ti a theo gi ca ngy trc (L1PM10), WS,
Tmin v Tmax. Cc bin ny c s dng nh l bin d bo trong m hnh ARIMA (p,
d, q) X, ANN, v cc m hnh kt hp.
M hnh ARIMA c th nhn cc bin c lp bn ngoi hoc bin d bo. M hnh
ny c biu din nh l ARIMA (p, d, q) X, trong X i din cho cc bin c lp
bn ngoi. Trong nghin cu ny, cc bin kh tng l cc bin c lp ly t m hnh
MLR. M hnh ARIMA tm c bng cch s dng cng c Times Series Forecasting
System ca phn mm SAS 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc, M).
Tng t m hnh ARIMA, trong m hnh ANN, cc bin kh tng l bin c lp
b sung thit lp chui cht lng khng kh theo thi gian, to ra m hnh MLR tt
nht. Cu trc m hnh ANN a lp (MLP) vi thut ton Levenberg-Marquardt (LM)
21

c s dng pht trin cc m hnh phi tuyn tnh theo chui thi gian. M hnh ny
c xy dng bng cch s dng cng c Enterprise Miner ca phn mm SAS 9.1
(SAS Institute Inc, M).
Kt hp m hnh ARIMA v ANN nhm hn ch cc sai s d liu cht lng
khng kh. Phng php bao gm hai bc: (1) m hnh ARIMA X d bo
MaxPM10ma; (2) m hnh ANN m t cc s d t m hnh ARIMA X. Trong nghin
cu ny, cu trc MLP vi cc thut ton LM v cc chc nng kch hot khc nhau
c s dng. M hnh kt hp c xy dng bng cch s dng cng c cng c
Enterprise Miner ca phn mm SAS 9.1.
2.2.3. Phn tch kt qu
Trong phn tch lch, ch c 1 gi tr PM10 cao bt thng (284.2 g/m3,
09/03/2001) nn b loi khi d liu. Nng cao ny khng ph bin thnh ph
vo cui h. Hin tng ny ch yu do la t nng nghip xut hin gn thnh ph cng
trong mt ngy.
Tip theo, phng php m hnh MLR cho cc bin s chun v chun ha (phng
trnh (5) v Bng 5) ni m tt c cc gi tr p c ngha mc tin cy 95%.
(5)

Bng 5. Tham s c tnh ca m hnh MLR i vi d liu hiu chnh PM10 t

trm Temuco/ Las Encinas (t 07/21 /2000 n 03/31/2006)
Tham s m hnh

c tnh

Sai s chun

t Ratio

Prob > |t|

L1PM10
WS
Tmin
Tmax

0.80845
- 0.13283
- 0.15332
0.05605

0.010785
0.011363
0.012692
0.011683

74.96
- 11.69
- 12.08
4.80

0.0000
<0.0001
<0.0001
<0.0001

Bng 5 cho thy L1PM10, WS, Tmin quan trng hn Tmax d bo nng
PM10 trung bnh di chuyn ti a 24 gi ti Temuco. Hng gi thay i khng ng k,
cho thy ngun bi PM10 c ngun gc trong vng ny nhiu hn c di chuyn t cc
khu vc khc n.

22

Tng t cc bin bn ngoi cng nh s dng trong m hnh ARIMAX (Phng

trnh (6) v Bng 6).
(6)

Trong , ARIMA (1,0,1) l mt m hnh ARIMA t tng quan bc 1 m khng

kt hp vi trung bnh di chuyn bc 1, c th hin theo (7) v s dng cc tham s
c tnh t Bng 6.
(7)
Bng 6. c lng tham s cho m hnh ARIMA (1,0,1)-X cho d liu hiu chnh
PM10 trm Temuco/ Las Encinas (t 07/21/2000 n 31/03/2006)
Tham s m hnh
Trung bnh di chuyn bc 1
MA(1)
T hi quy bc 1
AR(1)
Tmin
Tmax
WS
L1PM10

c tnh

Sai s chun

t Ratio

Prob > |t|

0.87057

0.0174

50.1508

< 0.0001

0.98122

0.0063

155.9363

< 0.0001

- 0.18140
0.09197
- 0.15999
0.60363

0.0136
0.0181
0.0127
0.0155

- 13.3511
5.0762
- 12.6129
38.9242

< 0.0001
< 0.0001
< 0.0001
< 0.0001

Bng 6 cho thy thnh phn t hi quy ca m hnh ARIMA quan trng hn cc
thnh phn trung bnh di chuyn, nng PM10 ti a theo gi ca ngy trc, v cc
bin kh tng trong d bo MaxPM10ma 24h ti Temuco.
M hnh ANN c xy dng da vo cc bin thng qua m hnh MLR v c
hun luyn bng thut ton Levenberg-Marquardt v cu trc MLP vi 1 lp n, 3 t bo
Neuron v hm kch hot neuron bc 2. M hnh ny l hp en cho cc phng trnh
v h s ca m hnh, y cng l nhc im so vi cc m hnh MLR hoc ARIMAX.
xy dng m hnh kt hp ARIMA-ANN, hai bin u ra ca m hnh
ARIMAX (6) v cc bin kh tng bn ngoi t m hnh MLR c s dng lm u
vo cho cc m hnh ANN mi: cc bin d bo ARIMAX MaxPM10ma, cc sai s lin
quan n m hnh ARIMAX, L1PM10, WS, Tmin v Tmax. M hnh kt hp cng c
hun luyn bng thut ton Levenberg-Marquardt v cu trc MLP vi 1 lp n, 3 t bo
23

neuron, v hm kch hot neuron bc 2. Kt qu m hnh c trnh by trong Hnh 8 v

Bng 7.

Hnh 8. M hnh s dng cc d liu kim nh cho MaxPM10ma 24h v d liu kh

tng t Temuca/ Las Encinas, Chile (t 01/04/2006 n 30/09/2006). So snh nng
MaxPM10ma 24h quan st v m hnh t: a) MLR, b) ARIMA-X, c) ANN, d) m hnh kt
hp ARIMA ANN
Bng 7. Thng k hiu sut m hnh cho cc d liu kim nh cho cc mu PM10
thu t trm Temuco/ Las Encinas t 01/04/2006 n 30/09/2006
Thng s

MLR

ARIMAX

ANN

Kt hp ARIMA-ANN

R2

0.7786

0.7691

0.7770

0.9828

E2

0.7599

0.7588

0.7588

0.9770

ARV

0.2401

0.2412

0.2431

0.0230

RMSE, g/m3

28.39

28.46

28.57

8.80

MAE, g/m3

20.83

19.87

20.65

6.74

24

SEP

29.70

29.76

29.88

9.20

PI

0.6626

0.6611

0.6585

0.9676

BIC

2198.9

2210.1

2216.7

1801.2

nh gi ca cc m hnh khc nhau, xt 3 nhm o chnh xc: kh nng d

bo (R2, E2, v ARV), chnh xc (RMSE, MAE v SEP), v s ph hp (PI v BIC).
c tnh cc h s ny, tt c cc bin m phng v quan st cng vi s d ca m
hnh c tnh ton li theo n v ban u ca m hnh. M hnh kt hp cho kh nng
d bo tt hn tng m hnh ring khong 10.4%:
V kh nng d bo: Gi tr R2 gia m phng v quan st thi on kim nh
cho MaxPM10ma 24h ca m hnh kt hp t 98.28 %, tt hn so vi cc m hnh
ring l.
V chnh xc: M hnh kt hp chnh xc nht trong 4 m hnh. H s SEP ln
hn, trong khi h s MAE thp nht trong s 3 h s. Trong trng hp ny, h s
SEP t 9.20%, RMSE 8.8 g/m3 v MAE ca 6.74 g/m3.
V s ph hp: m hnh kt hp tt hn, ph hp d bo. Trong m hnh ny,
h s BIC khc bit. H s PI c s dng thay cho h s xc nh (v h s xc nh
khng c lin quan n s khc bit gia gi tr d bo v quan st). Gi tr PI m hnh
kt hp cao 0.9676. iu ny cho thy m hnh kt hp d bo tt hn so vi nhng
m hnh khc.
Kt qu t Bng 8 n Bng 11 cho thy chnh xc ca d bo cho giai on
in hnh ca tng m hnh. Gi tr theo ct l ca ngy d bo 1 kiu d bo nht nh
i vi cc kiu khc ca ngy quan st. Mt m hnh tt s cho t l phn trm cnh
bo v thi on tin khn cp c gi tr cao. Gi tr % P theo hng ngang i din cho t
l phn trm ngy d bo c xc nhn xy ra. T l dng tnh gi c tnh bng
100 - % P. Mt m hnh d bo tt th gi tr dng tnh gi ca ct thi on phi nh.
Cc s in m theo ng cho l kt qu d bo theo thi on thnh cng. Cc m
hnh MLR v ARIMAX cho hiu sut cnh bo v thi on tin khn cp km, phn ln
l tin khn cp. iu ny cho thy m hnh ny khng ph hp vi m hnh phi tuyn.
Mt khc, m hnh ANN phi tuyn cho hiu qu tt hn (t 60%) ti cc thi on khn
cp nht, nhng i vi cnh bo th khng c ngy no c ghi li. Cui cng, m hnh
25

kt hp c th t c 80% cho vic cnh bo v trc thi on khn cp tng ng,

Bng 11. Li th ny l v cng quan trng p dng cng c d bo cht lng khng
kh th.
Bng 8. M hnh MLR cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong bng di,
trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30 /09/2006
Giai oan

D bo
Khng

Cnh bo

Tin khn

Khn cp

Tot.

%O2

cp

Khng c

169

171

99

Cnh bo

29

Tin khn cp

20

Khn cp

Tot.

174

183

%P

97

33

33

94

Bng 9. M hnh ARIMA (1,0,1)-X cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong

bng di, trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30/09/2006
Giai oan

D bo
Khng

Cnh bo

Tin khn

Khn cp

Tot.

%O2

cp

Khng c

169

171

99

Cnh bo

29

Tin khn cp

20

Khn cp

Tot.

174

183

%P

97

33

33

94

Bng 10. M hnh ANN cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong bng di,
trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30/09/2006
Giai oan

D bo
26

Khng

Cnh bo

Tin khn

Khn cp

Tot.

%O2

cp

Khng c

170

171

99

Cnh bo

Tin khn cp

60

Khn cp

Tot.

175

183

%P

97

43

95

Bng 11. M hnh kt hp cho tp hp ngu nhin c xc nhn trong bng

di, trm Temuco / Las Encinas t 04/01/2006 n 30/09/2006
Giai oan

D bo
Khng

Cnh bo

Tin khn

Khn cp

Tot.

%O2

cp

Khng c

170

171

99

Cnh bo

100

Tin khn cp

80

Khn cp

Tot.

170

183

%P

100

88

100

99

s dng m hnh ny d bo cht lng khng kh Temuco, m hnh kt

hp phi c chy mi ngy d bo cho ngy hm sau bng cch s dng d liu kh
tng v cht lng khng kh. c kt qu chnh xc hn trn ANN v m hnh kt
hp, cc s liu quan st phi tng i nhiu c th hun luyn cc m hnh ny.
Trong nghin cu ny, 2 080 gi tr quan st c s dng o to m hnh.
M hnh kt hp trong d bo PM10 ti Temuco t hiu sut cao, cho gi tr nng
PM10 in hnh theo chui thi gian v gn nh bt bin vo ma ng (thng 5,
thng 6 v thng 7), nh Hnh 9. M hnh kt hp ARIMA-ANN t c hiu sut cao
trong d bo bi PM10 ti Temuco nhng c th khc nhau cc thnh ph khc do
khc nhau v ngun gc PM10. Do c th to ra s hn lon hn trong chui thi gian
27

 nhim khng kh, c bit l trn cc mu tuyn tnh v phi tuyn tnh, v v vy m
hnh c chn phi c kh nng d on PM thnh cng. Mt m hnh kt hp
ARIMA-ANN c th p ng nhng yu cu . Cc bi bo tip theo s gii thiu thc
hin m hnh trn nhiu thnh ph trn ton th gii, trong bao gm cc ngun gc,
d liu kh tng v a l khc nhau.

Hnh 9. Trung bnh d liu thi gian theo gi ca nng PM10 vo ma ng

Temuco, Chile
2.2.4. Kt lun
Kt qu thc nghim vi d liu kh tng v bi PM10 ch ra rng m hnh kt
hp l mt cng c hiu qu ci thin chnh xc d bo hn so vi dng cc m
hnh mt cch ring bit, cng nh m hnh thng k MLR. M hnh kt hp tn dng
kh nng c o ca m hnh tuyn tnh v phi tuyn ARIMAX v ANN da vo chui
thi gian cht lng khng kh.
Temuco l th c tc pht trin, tng trng kinh t nhanh; kh thi ngun
cng nghip, kh thi xe v kh thi phc v un nu t qu trnh sinh hot tng nhanh.
T kt qu nghin cu trn c th p dng vo tnh hnh thc t nhm gim thiu nng
bi PM10 trong mi trng khng kh xung quanh.

28

TI LIU THAM KHO

Ting Vit
[1]
Ting Anh
[2]

29