DH07GI Tran Thi Thuong

B GIO DC V O TO
TRNG I HC NNG LM THNH PH H CH MINH

KHA LUN TT NGHIP

NG DNG GIS V AHP XY DNG BN PHN VNG
NGUY C L LT LU VC SNG KN TNH BNH NH

H v tn sinh vin: TRN TH THNG
Ngnh: H thng thng tin a l ng dng
Nin kha : 2007-2011

Thng 7/2011

GVHD: PGS.TS. Nguyn K Phng
i
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
NG DNG GIS V AHP XY DNG BN PHN VNG
NGUY C L LT LU VC SNG KN TNH BNH NH

Tc gi

TRN TH THNG

Kha lun c trnh p ng yu cu
cp bng k s ngnh
H Thng Thng Tin a L ng Dng

Gio vin hng dn:
PGS.TS. Nguyn K Phng

Thng 7 nm 2011

ii
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
LI CM N

Trong qu trnh hc tp, nghin cu v thc hin kha lun tt nghip em
nhn c s gip , ng vin, ch bo tn tnh ca qu Thy c, cc c quan, gia
nh bn b. Nhn y, em xin t lng bit n chn thnh n:
Qu Thy c trng i hc Nng Lm Tp. H Ch Minh dy d, o to
em trong sut 04 nm qua.
PGS.TS. Nguyn K Phng Ph gim c phn vin Kh tng, Thy vn v
Mi Trng pha Nam.
TS. Nguyn Kim Li Ph trng Khoa Mi trng v Ti nguyn.
Th.S. Bi Ch Nam, cc C (Ch) v cc Anh (Ch) Phn vin Kh tng thy
vn v Mi trng pha Nam.
Thy: V Minh Tun Trung tm cng ngh a chnh Tp. H Ch Minh.
Anh Nguyn Quang Long v cc anh ch Khoa Mi trng Trng i hc
Khoa hc t nhin Tp. H Ch Minh.
Anh Nguyn Hu H - S Khoa hc v Cng ngh tnh Bnh, s Nng nghip
& Pht trin nng thn Bnh nh, s Ti nguyn mi trng Bnh nh.
Ch Nguyn Th Hng Chi cc Ti nguyn mi trng tnh Bnh nh.
Tp th lp H thng thng tin a l ng dng Kha 33 gn b v gip
ti trong sut qu trnh hc cng nh trong thi gian lm lun vn.
V cui cng, con xin chn thnh cm n ba, m nhng ngi thn yu nui
nng, dy d lo lng cho con nn ngi, l ngun ng vin tinh thn ln nht
cho con con c c kt qu nh ngy hm nay.
Em xin chn thnh cm n.

Tp. H Ch Minh, ngy 10 thng 07 nm 2011
Sinh vin thc hin

Trn Th Thng

iii
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
TM TT

H thng thng tin a G mt h thng c s dng thu thp, u
tr, cp nht, phn tch v truy xut thng tin a h tr ra quyt nh cho cng tc
quy hoch, qun , d bo cho cc ngnh ngh hc nhau. Trong nh vc thin tai ni
chung v t ni ring, G ang dn dn c ng dng v c nhiu kt qu
nghin cu thnh cng so vi nhng phng php truyn thng trc kia.
L t l mt trong nhng thin tai nguy him nht Vit Nam. L t gy ra
nhng thit hi nghim trng v ngi v ca, tc ng xu n pht trin kinh t - x
hi nc ta.Nhng trn ma n trn u vc sng thng to nn nhng trn n.
Nc thng ngun dn v c th trn b (hoc lm v gy nn ngp lt cc vng
trng ven sng v ng bng rng ln h u. i hi phi c cc gii php thch
hp, phng chng cu h nhn dn vng b t, v c bit cng tc d bo nguy c
xy ra gim thiu nhng thit hi ln nht c th xy ra.
Vi cc l do trn, nghin cu ng dng GIS v AHP xy dng bn phn
vng nguy c t u vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh c trin khai v thng qua
nghin cu ny cng c th p dng cho cc loi thin tai hc ngoi t. Trnh t
ca vic xy dng bn phn vng nguy c t nh sau: Xc nh cc YTTP nh
hng, xc nh trng s nh hng, xy dng bn phn cp cho tng YTTP, tng
hp nh gi xy dng bn nguy c.
Vic xc nh mc nh hng ca cc yu t da trn nh gi cu chuyn
gia, ti liu tham kho v kin ch quan ca c nhn. Kt qu xc nh c 5
YTTP nh hng ( dc, loi t, ng ma, thc ph, mt i sng). Cc yu
t s c xy dng thnh cc lp d liu khng gian theo 5 phn cp nguy c: Rt
cao, Cao, Trung bnh, Thp, Rt thp. Trng s yu t c xc nh theo phng
php phn tch thng k tng hp.
Tt c cc lp d liu s dng phn tch u dc chuyn sang dng raster.
Phng php phn tch ch o l phn tch chng lp cc YTTP.
Kt qu cui cng ca nghin cu l xy dng bn phn vng nguy c t
vi 4 cp trn khu vc nghin cu. Nghin cu cung cp nhng thng tin kh
chi tit v y cc quy trnh, phng php tin hnh cng nh cc thng tin v kt

iv
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
qu tng hp.Mt khc, nghin cu ny mang tnh in hnh, hon ton c th p dng
cho nhng tai bin thin tai hc nh qut, hn hn, st l t vi nhng YTTP
c chn la khc nhau.

v
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
MC LC
Trang
Trang ba ............................................................................................................... i
LI CM N ..................................................................................................... ii
TM TT .......................................................................................................... iii
MC LC ............................................................................................................ v
DANH SCH CH VIT TT ....................................................................... viii
DANH SCH CC BNG .................................................................................. ix
DANH SCH CC HNH.................................................................................... x

CHNG 1: M U ........................................................................................ 1
1.1. t vn ........................................................................................................ 1
1.2. Mc tiu v gii hn nghin cu ...................................................................... 2
1.2.1. Mc tiu nghin cu ...................................................................................... 2
1.2.2. Gii hn phm vi nghin cu ........................................................................ 2
1.3. ngha hoa hc v ngha thc tin ............................................................. 2
1.3.1. ngha hoa hc .......................................................................................... 2
1.3.2. ngha thc tin ........................................................................................... 3

CHNG 2: TNG QUAN TI LIU NGHIN CU .................................... 4
2.1. Tng quan v GIS ............................................................................................ 4
2.1.1. nh ngha .................................................................................................... 4
2.1.2. Cc thnh phn .............................................................................................. 4
2.1.3. Chc nng ca GIS ....................................................................................... 6
2.1.4. D liu ca GIS ............................................................................................ 7
2.1.5. ng dng ca GIS ....................................................................................... 11
2.1.6. Hn ch ca GIS hin nay ........................................................................... 12
2.2. Tng quan v AHP ......................................................................................... 12
2.2.1. Gii thiu v AHP ....................................................................................... 12
2.2.2. Li ch ca AHP ......................................................................................... 13
2.2.3. Tin trnh thc hin ..................................................................................... 13

vi
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
2.2.4. ng dng ca AHP ..................................................................................... 14
2.3. Tng quan v t ........................................................................................ 14
2.3.1. nh ngha t ......................................................................................... 14
2.3.2. Cc c trng c bn ca t ................................................................... 15
2.3.3. Phn loi ................................................................................................. 16
2.3.4. Nguyn nhn hnh thnh ............................................................................. 17
2.3.5. Tng quan nghin cu t ........................................................................ 18
2.4. Tng quan khu vc nghin cu ...................................................................... 20
2.4.1. c im t nhin ....................................................................................... 20
2.4.2. c im kinh t - x hi ............................................................................ 34
2.5. Tnh hnh t sng Kn .............................................................................. 35

CHNG 3: NI DUNG V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU .................... 37
3.1. Ni dung nghin cu ...................................................................................... 36
3.1.1. Xc nh cc YTTP c la chn nghin cu ........................................... 36
3.1.2. S dng GIS AHP xy dng cc lp YTTP .............................................. 36
3.1.3. Thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c t ................................................. 36
3.2. Phng php nghin cu ................................................................................ 36
3.2.1. Khi nim bn nguy c ........................................................................... 36
3.2.2. Phn tch cc yu t thnh phn nh hng n t ................................. 37
3.2.3. ng dng AHP xc nh trng s cc YTTP .......................................... 47
3.2.4. Xy dng bn phn cp v cho im s cc YTTP ...................................... 50
3.2.5. ng dng G nh gi tng hp cc YTTP ............................................... 54
3.2.6. Cc thut lin quan trong vic thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c t 55
3.2.6.1. D liu thu thp ........................................................................................ 55
3.2.6.2. Phn mm v cc Tools trong phn mm trong phn tch nh gi ........... 55
3.2.6.3. X l d liu cc bn ........................................................................... 59
3.2.7. Qui trnh xy dng bn phn vng nguy c t .................................. 66

CHNG 4: KT QU NGHIN CU .......................................................... 68
4.1. Xy dng trng s cho YTTP nghin cu ...................................................... 68

vii
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
4.2. Xy dng bn cc YTTP gy ra t ........................................................ 70
4.2.1. Bn loi t ............................................................................................ 70
4.2.2. Bn thc ph .......................................................................................... 73
4.2.3. Bn ng ma ....................................................................................... 76
4.2.4. Bn dc ............................................................................................. 78
4.2.5. Bn mt i sng ............................................................................. 80
4.3. Thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c xy ra t u vc sng Kn ............. 82
4.4. Nhn xt chung .............................................................................................. 86

CHNG 5: KT LUN V KIN NGH ...................................................... 87
5.1. Kt lun ......................................................................................................... 87
5.2. Kin ngh ....................................................................................................... 87

TI LIU THAM KHO .................................................................................. 89
PH LC

viii
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
DANH SCH CH VIT TT

KHCN&MT
KTTV
TTCN
TB
YTTP
KT XH
NN
DT
GIS (Geographic Information System)
DBMS (Database Management System)
AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)
BCHPCLB
CI (consistency index)
CR (consistency ratio)
RI (random index)
DEM (digital elevation model)
KVNC
Khoa hc cng ngh v mi trng
Kh tng thy vn
T trng cng nghip
Trung bnh
Yu t thnh phn
Kinh t - x hi
Nng nghip
Din tch
H thng thng tin a l
H qun tr c s d liu
Tin trnh phn tch th bc
Ban ch huy phng chng lt bo
Ch s nht qun
T s nht qun
Ch s ngu nhin
M hnh cao s
Khu vc nghin cu
TBNN Trung bnh nhiu nm

ix
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
DANH SCH CC BNG
Trang
Bng 2.1: Phn b din tch theo cao ................................................................ 22
Bng 2.2: Thng k phn b t cc huyn, thnh ph ....................................... 23
Bng 2.3: S gi nng trung bnh ngy, thng nhiu nm ti Quy Nhn ............... 26
Bng 2.4: Bng mt s c trng ma nm u vc sng Kn .............................. 28
Bng 2.5: c trng hnh thi dng chnh sng ..................................................... 30
Bng 2.6: c trng dng chy sng Kn ............................................................. 30
Bng 2.7: Lu ng hng thng ti trm Bnh Tng, sng Kn ......................... 31
Bng 2.8: Phn phi dng chy theo ma trm Bnh Tng. ................................. 32
Bng 2.: Bin ng dng chy thng qua cc nm .............................................. 33
Bng 2.10: Din tch, dn s cc a phng trong u vc ................................... 34
Bng 2.11: Hin trng s dng t cc huyn thuc u vc sng Kn ................. 34
Bng 3.1: Mt s gi tr ca h s dng chy cc loi hnh
s dng t khc nhau ........................................................................................... 44
Bng 3.2: Bng so snh cp thng minh ca Saaty ................................................ 48
Bng 3.3: Ch s ngu nhin ng vi s nhn t (RI) ............................................ 49
Bng 3.4: Phn cp gi tr dc theo mc nguy c xy ra t .................... 51
Bng 3.5: Phn cp gi tr ng ma theo mc nguy c xy ra t .............. 51
Bng 3.6: Phn cp cc gi tr thc ph theo mc nguy c xy ra t ........... 52
Bng 3.7: Bng phn cp loi t theo mc nguy c xy ra t ..................... 53
Bng 3.8: Phn cp gi tr phn ct ngang theo mc nguy c xy ra t ....... 54
Bng 4.1: kin chuyn gia ................................................................................. 68
Bng 4.2: Ma trn so snh gia cc nhn t .......................................................... 69
Bng 4.3: Trng s cc nhn t ............................................................................. 69
Bng 4.4: Cc thng s ca AHP .......................................................................... 70
Bng 4.5: Cc loi t chnh u vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh. ............................ 71
Bng 4.6: Din tch cc loi thc ph .................................................................... 73
Bng 4.7: Din tch cc cp c ....................................................................... 78

x
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
DANH SCH CC HNH
Trang
Hnh 2.1: Cc thnh phn ca GIS .......................................................................... 4
Hnh 2.2: Quan h gia cc nhm chc nng ca GIS ............................................. 7
Hnh 2.3: Chng lp cc m hnh vector v raster ................................................... 8
Hnh 2.4: S liu vector c biu th di dng im ........................................... 8
Hnh 2.5: S liu vector c biu th di dng ng ......................................... 9
Hnh 2.6: S liu vector c biu th di dng vng ........................................... 9
Hnh 2.7: S thay i mc nc ti sng Hu v sng Tin t 24/7 2/8/1996 .... 15
Hnh 2.8: th din t mt qu trnh ............................................................... 16
Hnh 2.: ng qu trnh nh cao nht nm ti trm H Ni ......................... 17
Hnh 2.10: Hnh dng u vc in quan n s tp trung v ng qu trnh .. 18
Hnh 2.11: Ranh gii u vc sng Kn ................................................................ 21
Hnh 2.12: S gi nng trung bnh ngy ti Quy Nhn .......................................... 26
Hnh 2.13: Bn phn b ng ma nm .......................................................... 29
Hnh 2.14: Phn phi dng chy nm ti trm Bnh Tng ................................... 32
Hnh 3.1: nh hng ca trc ng hnh thi u vc n thy ...................... 43
Hnh 3.2: Giao din ArcMap ................................................................................. 56
Hnh 3.3: Quy trnh x l d liu a hnh ............................................................ 60
Hnh 3.4: Cc vng Thiessen ............................................................................... 61
Hnh 3.5: Ni suy tuyn tnh v theo hm Spline .................................................. 61
Hnh 3.6: Trung bnh trng s ............................................................................... 62
Hnh 3.7: Hi quy a thc ..................................................................................... 63
Hnh 3.8: K thut ni suy Kriging ....................................................................... 63
Hnh 3.9: Qui trnh x l d liu ng ma ......................................................... 64
Hnh 3.10: Qui trnh x l d liu mt i sng .............................................. 64
Hnh 3.11: Qui trnh x l d liu thc ph .......................................................... 65
Hnh 3.12: Qui trnh x l d liu loi t ............................................................ 65
Hnh 3.13: Qui trnh xy dng bn phn vng nguy c t ........................... 66
Hnh 4.1: Bn loi t ...................................................................................... 72
Hnh 4.2: Bn thc ph .................................................................................... 75

xi
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Hnh 4.3: Bn ng ma ................................................................................. 77
Hnh 4.4: Bn dc ....................................................................................... 79
Hnh 4.5: Bn mt i sng ....................................................................... 81
Hnh 4.6: M t chng lp cc bn YTTP ........................................................ 82
Hnh 4.7: Bn gi tr nguy c chy trn m hnh .............................................. 83
Hnh 4.8: Bn phn vng nguy c t u vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh ...... 85

Chng 1 GVHD: PGS.TS. Nguyn K Phng
1
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

CHNG 1
M U
1.1. t vn
Vit Nam nm trong khu vc nhit i gi ma, lnh th tri di vi nhiu dng
a hnh khc nhau. Cc nhn t t nhin nh sng ngi, t ai, kh hu to cho
chng ta rt nhiu iu kin thun li pht trin nn nng nghip la nc cng nh
cc ngnh cng nghip, dch v v du lch khc. Bn cnh nhng thun li th nc ta
cng gp phi khng t kh khn do hn hn, bo, l lt, l qut, trt l t , xi
mn, su bnh gy ra. Hu qu sau nhng t thin tai l v cng nghim trng.
l hng ngn ngi b cht v mt tch, hng trm hng ngn hecta la, hoa mu b mt
trng, i sng nhn dn kh khn nay cn thm kh khn, s pht trin kinh t x
hi ca tng vng b km hm. Khu vc duyn hi min Trung ni chung v Bnh
nh ni ring, ni thng xuyn chu nh hng ca nhng trn bo ln v p thp
nhit i. Chnh nhng iu kin thi tit kh hu khc nghit ny gy ra ma ln
trn din rng ni y dn n l lt thng xuyn e da n cuc sng v sn xut
ca con ngi. c bit trn l lch s thng 11 12 nm 1999 gy ra cho nhn dn
trong tnh nhiu au thng v mt mt, thit hi t con ngi cho n ca ci vt cht
u rt nghim trng.
Bnh qun mi nm, Bnh nh hng chu trung bnh t 2 3 trn l trn
ton a bn tnh v gy ra nhiu tn tht v ngi v ca ci. Trn l nm 1999
lm 22 ngi b cht, tng thit hi 228 t ng; trn l nm 2003: 29 ngi b cht,
tng thit hi 124 t ng; nm 2005: tng thit hi 219 t ng v 39 ngi b cht;
nm 2007: 47 ngi b cht, tng thit hi 224 t ng. Hin nay mt ct cc lng
sng, sui b bi lp nghim trng, lm gim kh nng tiu thot l ca cc con sng,
tnh trng ma cha ln nhng nc sng trn b lm st l , k, st l vng b,
b tha, bi lp t canh tc, bi lp cc lng sng, ca bin, cc m, h cha.
nc ta hin nay mc d cng tc d bo v phng trnh c c nhiu s
quan tm m bng chng l mi tnh thnh u c mt b phn phng chng lt bo

2
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
vi nhiu d n c trin khai nhng mi nm tai bin l lt vn xy ra thng
xuyn cc vng ng bng thp trng nh: Qung Ngi, Ph Yn, Bnh nh...Do
vy vic d bo nguy c l lt hin nay tr thnh mt vic ht sc quan trng v
cp thit trong mc tiu pht trin chung khng ch ring nc ta m cn i vi mi
quc gia trn th gii.. Xut pht t nhng i hi thc t trn, ti ng dng GIS
v AHP thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c l lt lu vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh
c thc hin. Kt qu ca nghin cu l c s quy hoch phng chng l lt cho
khu vc cng nh lm ti liu tham kho cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v ra
quyt nh a phng.

1.2. Mc tiu v gii hn nghin cu
1.2.1. Mc tiu nghin cu
Mc tiu chung ca ti nhm ng dng h thng thng tin a l (GIS) v
phng php phn tch th bc (AHP) xy dng bn phn vng nguy c l lt ti
lu vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh. Chi tit cc mc tiu c th bao gm:
Xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n l lt.
Xc nh trng s cho cc nhn t nghin cu.
Xy dng bn cho tng nhn t nh hng n l lt.
Xy dng qui trnh thnh lp bn phn vng.
Phn cp cc nhn t nh hng n l lt.
Xy dng bn phn vng nguy c xy ra l lt.
1.2.2. Gii hn phm vi nghin cu
Vic thu thp kin chuyn gia cng nh ti liu tham kho gp nhiu kh
khn do cc kin cha thng nht m thi gian li hn ch nn s lng thng tin thu
c c gii hn. Ngoi ra trong phm vi ti ch thc hin nghin cu lu vc sng
trn phm vi ranh gii ca tnh do iu kin d liu khng y cho ton lu vc.

1.3. ngha khoa hc v ngha thc tin
1.3.1. ngha khoa hc
Nhng k thut, phng php mi c s dng trong kha lun c ngha rt
ln trong d bo nhng vng c nguy c xy ra l lt cng nh xc nh cc yu t

3
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
gy nn l lt v nhng bin ng ca nhng yu t nht l lng ma v thc ph.
Vic p dng cc phng php ny cho ta nhng thng tin tng qut v lu vc. l
nhng tin b m nhng phng php trc y t t c. Bn cnh , ti cn
c nhiu ng dng trong nhiu lnh vc khc nh xc nh cc yu t xi mn, xi
mn t, bn qui hoch s dng t trong tng lai...
1.3.2. ngha thc tin
Tng cng nng lc phng chng v gim nh thit hi do l lt gy ra, phng
chng cu h nhn dn vng l lt.
Vic thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c l lt trc ht s thun li cho cng
tc d bo l lt, tip h tr cho vic qui hoch s dng t v qui hoch th, c
th l xc nh nhng vng khc nhau th phc v cho nhng mc ch khc nhau t
thit hi, tin ti pht trin bn vng.


4
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

CHNG 2
TNG QUAN TI LIU NGHIN CU
2.1. Tng quan v GIS
2.1.1. nh ngha
H thng thng tin a l (Geographic Information Systems, GIS) c nh
ngha nh l mt h thng thng tin m n s dng d liu u vo, cc thao tc phn
tch, c s d liu u ra lin quan v mt a khng gian (Geographically hay
Geospatial), nhm tr gip vic thu nhn, lu tr, qun l, x l, phn tch v hin th
cc thng tin khng gian t th gii thc gii quyt cc vn tng hp thng tin
cho cc mc ch ca con ngi t ra, chng hn nh: h tr ra cc quyt nh cho
vic quy hoch (planning), v qun l (management) s dng t (land use), ti
nguyn thin nhin (natural resources), mi trng (environment), giao thng
(transportation), d dng trong qui hoch pht trin th v nhng vic lu tr d
liu hnh chnh.[1]
2.1.2. Cc thnh phn
GIS c kt hp bi 5 thnh phn chnh: phn cng, phn mm, d liu, con
ngi, chnh sch v qun l.

Hnh 2.1: Cc thnh phn ca GIS


5
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Phn cng
Phn cng l h thng my tnh trn mt h GIS hot ng. Ngy nay, phn
mm GIS c kh nng chy trn rt nhiu dng phn cng, t my ch trung tm n
cc my trm hot ng c lp hoc lin kt mng.
Phn mm
Phn mm GIS cung cp cc chc nng v cc cng c cn thit lu gi,
phn tch v hin th thng tin a l. Cc thnh phn chnh trong phn mm GIS l:
Cng c nhp v thao tc trn cc thng tin a l
H qun tr c s d liu (DBMS)
Cng c h tr hi p, phn tch v hin th a l
Giao din ho ngi my (GUI) truy cp cc cng c d dng
D liu
C th coi thnh phn quan trng nht trong mt h GIS l d liu. Cc d liu
a l v d liu thuc tnh lin quan c th c ngi s dng t tp hp hoc c
mua t nh cung cp d liu thng mi. H GIS s kt hp d liu khng gian vi
cc ngun d liu khc, thm ch c th s dng DBMS t chc lu gi v qun l
d liu.
Con ngi
Cng ngh GIS s b hn ch nu khng c con ngi tham gia qun l h
thng v pht trin nhng ng dng GIS trong thc t. Ngi s dng GIS c th l
nhng chuyn gia k thut, ngi thit k v duy tr h thng, hoc nhng ngi dng
GIS gii quyt cc vn trong cng vic.
Chnh sch v qun l
y l hp phn rt quan trng m bo kh nng hot ng ca h thng, l
yu t quyt nh s thnh cng ca vic pht trin cng ngh GIS. H thng GIS cn
c iu hnh bi mt b phn qun l, b phn ny phi c b nhim t chc
hot ng h thng GIS mt cch c hiu qu phc v ngi s dng thng tin.
hot ng thnh cng, h thng GIS phi c t trong 1 khung t chc
ph hp v c nhng hng dn cn thit qun l, thu thp, lu tr v phn tch s
liu, ng thi c kh nng pht trin c h thng GIS theo nhu cu. H thng GIS
cn c iu hnh bi 1 b phn qun l, b phn ny phi c b nhim t chc


6
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
hot ng h thng GIS mt cch c hiu qu phc v ngi s dng thng tin.
Trong qu trnh hot ng, mc ch ch c th t c v tnh hiu qu ca k thut
GIS ch c minh chng khi cng c ny c th h tr nhng ngi s dng thng
tin gip h thc hin c nhng mc tiu cng vic. Ngoi ra vic phi hp gia
cc c quan chc nng c lin quan cng phi c t ra, nhm gia tng hiu qu s
dng ca GIS cng nh cc ngun s liu hin c.
Nh vy, trong 5 hp phn ca GIS, hp phn chnh sch v qun l ng vai
tr rt quan trng m bo kh nng hot ng ca h thng, y l yu t quyt
nh s thnh cng ca vic pht trin cng ngh GIS.
Trong phi hp v vn hnh cc hp phn ca h thng GIS nhm a vo hot
ng c hiu qu k thut GIS, 2 yu t hun luyn v chnh sch qun l l c s
ca thnh cng. Vic hun luyn cc phng php s dng h thng GIS s cho php
kt hp cc hp phn: (1) Thit b (2) Phn mm (3) Chuyn vin v (4) S liu vi
nhau a vo vn hnh. Tuy nhin, yu t chnh sch v qun l s c tc ng n
ton b cc hp phn ni trn, ng thi quyt nh n s thnh cng ca hot ng
GIS.
2.1.3. Chc nng ca GIS
Mt h thng GIS phi m bo c 6 chc nng c bn sau:
Capture: thu thp d liu. D liu c th ly t rt nhiu ngun, c th l bn
giy, nh chp, bn s
Store: lu tr. D liu c th c lu di dng vector hay raster.
Query: truy vn (tm kim). Ngi dng c th truy vn thng tin ho
hin th trn bn .
Analyze: phn tch. y l chc nng h tr vic ra quyt nh ca ngi
dng. Xc nh nhng tnh hung c th xy ra khi bn c s thay i.
Display: hin th. Hin th bn .
Output: xut d liu. H tr vic kt xut d liu bn di nhiu nh
dng: giy in, website, nh, file


7
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 2.2: Quan h gia cc nhm chc nng ca GIS

2.1.4. D liu ca GIS
H thng thng tin a l bao gm: D liu khng gian v phi khng gian.
D liu l trung tm ca h thng GIS c lu tr trong c s d liu v thu
thp thng qua cc m hnh th gii thc. D liu trong GIS cn c gi l thng tin
khng gian. c trng thng tin khng gian l c kh nng m t vt th u nh
v tr tham chiu, n v o v quan h khng gian. c trng thng tin khng gian m
t quan h v tng tc gia cc hin tng t nhin. M hnh khng gian c bit
quan trng v cch thc thng tin s nh hng n kh nng thc hin phn tch d
liu v kh nng hin th ho ca h thng.
D liu khng gian
D liu khng gian (tr li cho cu hi v v tr u?) c th hin trn
bn v h thng thng tin a l di dng im (point), ng (line) hoc vng
(polygon). D liu khng gian l d liu v i tng m v tr ca n c xc nh
trn b mt Tri t. H thng thng tin a l lm vic vi hai dng m hnh d liu
a l khc nhau - m hnh vector v m hnh raster.


8
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 2.3: Chng lp cc m hnh vector v raster

M hnh vector: Biu din d liu khng gian nh im, ng, vng c
km theo thuc tnh m t i tng. M hnh d liu ny ph hp trong
biu din d liu c ranh gii r rt nh ranh t, ranh nh, ranh ng,
biu din cc d liu vector c hai loi cu trc d liu thng c s
dng: Spaghetti v Topology.
Kiu i tng im (Points): im c xc nh bi cp gi tr n.
Cc i tng n, thng tin v a l ch gm c s v tr s c phn
nh l i tng im.

Hnh 2.4: S liu vector c biu th di dng im

Kiu i tng ng: ng c xc nh nh mt tp hp dy ca cc
im. M t cc i tng a l dng tuyn.


9
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 2.5: S liu vector c biu th di dng ng

Kiu i tng vng: Vng c xc nh bi ranh gii cc ng thng.
Cc i tng a l c din tch v ng kn bi mt ng gi l i
tng vng polygons.

Hnh 2.6: S liu vector c biu th di dng vng

M hnh Raster: c pht trin cho m phng cc i tng lin tc. Mt
nh raster l mt tp hp cc li. Cu trc n gin nht l mng gm cc
ca bn . Mi trn bn c biu din bi t hp ta (hng, ct).


10
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Kt qu mi biu din mt phn ca b mt tri t v gi tr ca n l tnh
cht ti v tr .
M hnh raster c cc c im:
Cc im c xp lin tip t tri qua phi v t trn xung di.
Mi mt im nh (pixel) cha mt gi tr.
Mt tp cc ma trn im v cc gi tr tng ng to thnh mt lp
(layer).
Trong c s d liu c th c nhiu lp.
Trong mt h thng d liu c bn raster c lu tr trong cc (thng hnh
vung) c sp xp trong mt mng hoc cc dy hng v ct. Nu c th, cc hng
v ct nn c cn c vo h thng li bn thch hp. Vic s dng cu trc d
liu raster tt nhin a n mt s chi tit b mt. Vi l do ny, h thng raster
based khng c s dng trong cc trng hp ni chi tit c cht lng cao c
i hi.
D liu phi khng gian
D liu phi khng gian hay cn gi l thuc tnh (Non - Spatial Data hay
Attribute) (tr li cho cu hi n l ci g?) l nhng m t v c tnh, c im v
cc hin tng xy ra ti cc v tr a l xc nh. Mt trong cc chc nng c bit
ca cng ngh GIS l kh nng ca n trong vic lin kt v x l ng thi gia d
liu bn v d liu thuc tnh. Thng thng h thng thng tin a l c 4 loi s
liu thuc tnh:
c tnh ca i tng: lin kt cht ch vi cc thng tin khng gian c
th thc hin SQL (Structure Query Language) v phn tch.
S liu hin tng, tham kho a l: miu t nhng thng tin, cc hot
ng thuc v tr xc nh.
Ch s a l: tn, a ch, khi, phng hng nh v, lin quan n
cc i tng a l.
Quan h gia cc i tng trong khng gian, c th n gin hoc phc
tp (s lin kt, khong tng thch, mi quan h hnh gia cc i
tng).


11
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
m t mt cch y cc i tng a l, trong bn s ch dng thm
cc loi i tng khc: im iu khin, to gii hn v cc thng tin mang tnh
cht m t (annotation).
2.1.5. ng dng ca GIS
GIS c mt hu ht cc lnh vc khoa hc cng ngh v i sng x hi t
nhng thp k 70 ca th k trc.
Trong lnh vc mi trng, GIS dng phn tch, m hnh ha cc tin
trnh xi mn t, s lan truyn nhim trong mi trng kh hoc nc.
Trong nng nghip, GIS l cng c c lc trong gim st thu hoch, qun l
s dng t, d bo v hng ho, nghin cu v t trng, k hoch ti tiu,
kim tra ngun nc.
Trong lnh vc ti chnh, GIS tng c p dng cho vic xc nh v tr
nhng chi nhnh mi ca ngn hng. Hin nay vic s dng GIS ang tng
ln trong lnh vc ny, n l mt cng c nh gi ri ro v mc ch bo
him, xc nh vi chnh xc cao hn nhng khu vc c ri ro ln nht
hay thp nht.
Ngoi tr nhng ng dng trong lnh vc nh gi, qun l m GIS hay c
dng, n cn c th p dng trong lnh vc y t. V d: ch ra c l trnh
nhanh nht gia v tr hin ti ca xe cp cu v bnh nhn cn cp cu, da
trn c s d liu giao thng. GIS cng c th c s dng nh l mt cng
c nghin cu dch bnh phn tch nguyn nhn bc pht v ly lan bnh
tt trong cng ng.
i vi cc nh qun l a phng vic ng dng GIS rt hiu qu, bi v
s dng d liu khng gian nhiu nht. Tt c cc c quan ca chnh quyn
a phng c th c li t GIS, n c th c s dng trong vic tm kim
v qun l tha t, thay th cho vic h s giy t hin hnh. Cn b a
phng cng c th s dng GIS trong vic bo dng nh ca v ng
giao thng. GIS cn c s dng trong cc trung tm iu khin v qun l
cc tnh hung khn cp.


12
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Trong lnh vc vn ti, in, gas, in thoi.. ng dng GIS linh hot nht,
GIS c dng xy dng nhng c s d liu, l nhn t ca chin lc
cng ngh thng tin ca cc cng ty trong lnh vc ny.
2.1.6. Hn ch ca GIS hin nay
Hin nay, vn cn nhiu hn ch v mt k thut v t chc trong vic hu
dng ha k thut GIS, c bit l cc nc km v ang pht trin.
Bn hn ch quan trng l:
Phn tch khng y cc vn tht c th nh n ang xy ra trong vic
qun l t ai phc tp v vn bn vng cp nng h, cng nh n
bao gm trong vic tng hp nhng vn lin quan n sinh hc, kinh t x
hi v chnh tr trong mt th chung ton din.
Nhng gii hn trong kh nng hu dng ca s liu v cht lng s liu
tt c cc t l, c bit l cc s liu ny cn phi c s kho st thc t mt
t.
Thiu s trao i thng xuyn cc s liu, nh dng v cc phn chnh ca
h thng.
Nhng phng tin thng tin khng y gia cc h thng my tnh, b
phn cung cp s liu v ngi s dng th d nh cc vng c mng li
in thoi cn ngho nn, cha thng sut.

2.2. Tng quan v AHP
2.2.1. Gii thiu v AHP
Vo nhng nm u thp nin 1970, Thomas L. Saaty pht trin phng php
ra quyt nh c bit nh l qui trnh phn tch th bc (Analytic Hierarchy Process
AHP) gip x l cc vn ra quyt nh a tiu chun phc tp. Phng php
AHP cho php ngi ra quyt nh tp hp c kin thc ca cc chuyn gia v vn
ca h, kt hp c cc d liu khch quan v ch quan trong mt khun kh th
bc logic. Trn ht l AHP cung cp cho ngi ra quyt nh mt cch tip cn trc
gic, theo s phn on thng thng nh gi s quan trng ca mi thnh phn
thng qua qu trnh so snh cp .


13
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
AHP kt hp c c hai mt t duy ca con ngi: c v nh tnh v nh
lng. nh tnh qua s sp xp th bc v nh lng qua s m t cc nh gi v s
a thch qua cc con s c th dng m t nhn nh ca con ngi v c cc vn
v hnh ln vt l hu hnh, n c th dng m t cm xc, trc gic nh gi ca
con ngi. Ngy nay, AHP c s dng rt ph bin trong cc lnh vc qun l ti
nguyn t ai, thng mi,. AHP da vo 3 nguyn tc: (i) Phn tch vn ra
quyt nh (thit lp th bc ), (ii) nh gi so snh cc thnh phn, (iii) Tng hp cc
u tin.
2.2.2. Li ch ca AHP
AHP c th gip chng ta nh gi k hoch mt cch khch quan ln ch
quan, cung cp mt c ch hu ch cho kim tra la chn v nh gi c tnh bn cht
hay khng, nh vy mi gim thiu sai lm khi ra quyt nh, thc hin k hoch.
Thc vy, khi thc hin mt vn c nhiu bin quyt nh, chng ta khng th da
vo mt bin quyt nh c vn . AHP tch ton b vn gii quyt thnh
nhiu bng nh gi khc nhau thng qua s quan trng ca n vi mc tiu cn thc
hin. Nh vy AHP gip chng ta c th xc nh chnh xc cc nhn t nh hng
n vn nghin cu nh th no, t gip ta nhn nh r vn nghin cu v
tm quan trng ca cc nhn t nh hng nh th no n vn chng ta t ra.
2.2.3. Tin trnh thc hin
Phn tch
Tin hnh la chn cc ch tiu cn nghin cu, phn cp v loi b cc ch tiu
km quan trng. Mi ch tiu c chia ra mt mc ph hp, c phn tch da vo
mc quan trng ca chng. Khi kt thc, qu trnh s lp i lp li lm cho vn
thay i khch quan hn. Sau chng c a vo trong ma trn qun l vn
theo chiu dc ln chiu ngang di s phn cp tiu chun ca trng s. V vy
khi tng thm s ch tiu th mc quan trng ca cc ch tiu ny gim i v lm
cho vn nghin cu cng chnh xc hn.
Trng s
Cho mi ch tiu l mt trng s, da vo s quan trng ca n trong ton h
thng chng ta c th xc nh c trng s ca tng ch tiu thng qua h chuyn


14
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
gia. Tng tt c cc tiu chun phi l 100% hay 1. Trng s ny chnh l mc quan
trng ca tng ch tiu nh hng bao nhiu n vn nghin cu.
nh gi
Cn c la chn v so snh ch tiu ny vi cc ch tiu khc nhm nh gi
chng nh hng nh th no n vn nghin cu ca chng ta. S dng AHP,
nh gi cc ch tiu la chn theo kin ca cc chuyn gia, nh nghin cu v vn
.
La chn
Sau khi nh gi cc ch tiu nghin cu, tin hnh so snh cc tiu chun, chn
la sao v loi b cc ch tiu t nh hng n vn nghin cu sao cho ph hp
nht vi yu cu t ra.
2.2.4. ng dng ca AHP
AHP thut ton phn tch th bc, hin nay c p dng cho nhiu ngnh
khc nhau:
Nng nghip: AHP c ng dng cng vi GIS nh gi, tm ra cc loi
cy trng thch hp thng qua cc YTTP nh dc, th nhng, lng
ma, loi hnh s dng t
Thy sn: ng dng AHP xc nh thch nghi cho tm, c thng qua cc
YTTP nh thnh phn c gii, mn, pH.
Lm nghip: p dng AHP kt hp GIS xy dng bn d bo nguy c
chy rng da trn cc YTTP nh: lng ma, dc, loi rng.

2.3. Tng quan v l lt
2.3.1. nh ngha l lt
L lt l mt hin tng t nhin, gn nh xy ra hng nm. L do nc sng
dng cao trong ma ma. S lng nc dng cao xy ra trn mt con sng mc to
thnh l c th xy ra mt ln hoc nhiu ln trong nm. Khi nc sng dng ln cao
(do ma ln hoc/v triu cao), vt qua khi b, chy trn vo cc vng trng v gy
ra ngp trn mt din rng trong mt khong thi gian no gi l ngp lt. L lt
c gi l l ln v c bit ln khi n gy ra nhiu thit hi ln v ko di v ngi


15
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
v ca ci [2]. theo di din bin mc nc trn sng, ngi ta t chc o c mc
nc v v thnh cc thy .

Hnh 2.7: S thay i mc nc ti sng Hu v sng Tin t 24/7 2/8/1996

2.3.2. Cc c trng c bn ca l lt
Mc nc: l cao ca mt nc trong sng tnh t mt cao chun no
(thng l mt nc bin hoc theo cao quc gia), thng c biu
th bng k hiu H v n v l cm.
Lu lng nc: l lng nc chy qua mt mt ct ngang sng trong mt
n v thi gian, thng biu th bng k hiu v c n v l m
3
/s hoc l/s.
Chn l ln: l l bt u ln (mc nc bt u dng cao (H
1
) hay lu lng
nc bt u ln).
nh l: l mc nc hay lu lng nc cao nht trong mt trn l. Mt
trn l c th c 1 nh (l n) hoc 2, 3 nh (l kp).
Chn l xung: l l rt xung thp nht, xp x bng lc bt u ln.
Thi gian l ln: l khong thi gian t thi im chn l ln n nh l (t
l
).
Thi gian l xung: l khong thi gian t nh l n thi im chn l
xung (t
x
).
Thi gian trn l: l khong thi gian t chn l ln n chn l xung t = t
l

+ t
x
.


16
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Bin mc nc l ln: l chnh lch mc nc gia mc nc nh l vi
mc nc chn l ln (denta H
l
).
Cng sut l: l s bin i ca mc nc trong mt n v thi gian,
thng ly n v l cm/h hoc m/ngy m.
Lng l: l lng nc do ma sinh ra trong mt trn l hoc trong mt
n v thi gian no (W, m
3
) ca trn l.
M un nh l: l lng nc l ln nht (lu lng nh l, Q
max
, m
3
/s)
c sinh ra trn mt n v din tch lu vc sng trong mt n v thi
gian, thng c n v l l/s.km
2
hoc m
3
/s.km
2
.

Hnh 2.8: th din t mt qu trnh l

2.3.3. Phn loi l
Cn c vo mc nc nh l trung bnh nhiu nm (TBNN), phn thnh 5 loi:
1. L nh l loi c nh thp hn mc nh l TBNN.
2. L va l loi c nh t mc nh l TBNN.
3. L ln l loi c nh cao hn mc nh l TBNN.
4. L c bit ln l loi c nh cao him thy trong cc k quan trc.
5. L lch s l loi c nh cao nht trong thi k quan trc hoc iu tra kho
st c.
Ngun: [3]


17
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 2.9: ng qu trnh nh l cao nht nm ti trm H Ni

2.3.4. Nguyn nhn hnh thnh
Ma ln v ko di (do bo ln) l nguyn nhn chnh gy ra l lt, ngoi ra
vng ng bng ca sng tip gip vi bin, triu cng l mt nhn t lm l lt trm
trng hn. Ngoi ra, cn mt s yu t khc nh hng n kh nng xut hin l ln
v bt thng:
Lu vc cng rng th nc l ln chm nhng cng s rt chm, ngc li
lu vc hp v di s lm nc ln nhanh mt s trng hp s hnh thnh
l qut, l ng
Rng b tn ph cng l mt trong cc nguyn nhn gy nn l lt v xi
mn t.
Hin tng El Nino (do s nng ln ca vng bin xch o vng Nam M
Thi Bnh Dng) v LA Nina (do s lnh ln ca vng bin xch o ng
Thi Bnh Dng) gy ra hin tng l lt v hn hn trn nhiu vng
khc nhau.
Nu mt h thng sng c nhiu con sng hp thnh th kh nng t hp thi
im xut hin l ng thi s lm gia tng mc nghim trng ca l.


18
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 2.10: Hnh dng lu vc lin quan n s tp trung v ng qu trnh l

2.3.5. Tng quan nghin cu l lt
Ngoi nc
Trong vi chc nm gn y, th gii ngy cng lo lng trc s tn ph ca
thin tai vi xu th ngy cng m rng. Theo bo co ca nhng c quan cu tr thin
tai, nhng t chc quc gia v quc t khc nhau th l lt l mt trong nhng thin tai
nghim trng nht. L lt l thin tai ph bin: hu ht cc quc gia u phi i ph
vi l lt. Trn th gii nhiu nc u t nghin cu v lnh vc d bo l, lt ca
cc lu vc sng nhm gim nh thit hi do l lt gy ra cho cc vng h lu. Nhiu
cng trnh nghin cu trn th gii cho thy vic phi hp bin php cng trnh v
bin php phi cng trnh l hai bin php c hiu qu phng chng l, lt. Trong
cng tc d bo l v cnh bo ngp lt c xem l mt cng tc trng yu trong s
cc bin php phi cng trnh.
Tuyn tp bo co khoa hc ca nhm chuyn gia quc t v ci thin h thng
phng chng thin tai da trn c s phn tch nguy c thin tai lin quan n bo v
ma ln di s bo tr ca Lin Hp Quc (UN, 1987. Proceeding of the exprert
group meeting on the improvement of disaster prevention systems based on risk
analysis of nature disasters related to typhoon and heavy rainfall) hng dn quy
trnh thu thp s liu, iu tra l lt, thit hi do l lt, qui trnh xy dng cc bn
phn vng nguy c ngp lt da trn c s iu tra kho st, phn tch thy vn, thy
lc. Bo co cng cp n kinh nghim xy dng bn ngp lt v cng tc quy
hoch phng chng l lt ca cc nc nh Nht Bn, Trung Quc, Malaysia....


19
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Trong nc
Sau trn l nm 1999 mt s cng trnh nghin cu l lt cc lu vc sng min
Trung cp nh nc c trin khai. Cc cng trnh ny ch yu tp trung vo
nghin cu cc lu vc sng khu vc Trung Trung B. Mt s cng trnh tiu biu
lin quan n vic nghin cu d bo v cnh bo ngp lt h lu c tin hnh trong
nc thi gian gn y, c th k n cc cng trnh nghin cu sau:
ti Xy dng bn nguy c ngp lt tnh Qung Nam thuc d n
Khc phc hu qu mi trng do bo l tnh Qung Nam do B
KHCN&MT qun l, S KHCN&MT.
ti Xy dng bn ngp lt phng n cnh bo, d bo v phng
trnh nguy c ngp lt h lu cc sng tnh Qung Ngi do S KHCN&MT
Qung Ngi qun l, i KTTV khu vc Trung Trung B ch tr. Trong
c cc bn nguy c ngp lt ng vi cc tn sut 1%, 5%, 10% c
xy dng da trn c s iu tra vt l v tnh ton nh l thit k, cc ct
mc bo l c xy dng trong khun kh ca ti, ng thi ti
cng a ra cc phng n cnh bo, d bo v nguy c ngp lt.
i KTTV khu vc Nam Trung B thc hin ti Xy dng bn
ngp lt, xy dng phng n d bo l cc tnh Ph Yn Khnh Ha
Ninh Thun Bnh Thun v ang c p dng c hiu qu trong vic
phng chng gim nh thin tai.
c bit i KTTV Nam Trung B ng dng h thng thng tin a l
(GIS) trong vic x l thng tin, phn tch v d bo su ngp, din ngp
i vi tng khu vc, t xy dng ln bn ngp lt cho vng nghin
cu.

Trong tnh
Nm 2002 tnh Bnh nh nghim thu d n: x l hu qu mi trng v
tng cng nng lc ng ph vi s c mi trng do l lt gy ra theo ni dung
chnh tr sng v ca sng Li Giang, tiu thot l h thng sng Li Giang v chnh
tr cc ca bin An D, H Ra v Gi - tnh Bnh nh do Phn vin Vt l TP. H
Ch Minh thc hin. D n nghin cu xut mt s bin php nhm thay i


20
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
din bin l theo hng gim nh thy tai v gp phn hoch nh cc bin php cho
tng khu vc; nghin cu cnh bo v d bo l khi c cc d bo v loi hnh thi
tit gy ma ln... nhng cha chi tit cho tng loi.
Cc sng tnh Bnh nh hng nm c t 3 - 4 trn l ln gy nhiu thit hi v
ngi v ti sn i vi khu vc h lu cc sng. Trn l nm 1987 lm tri 664
ngi nh, 3081 ngi nh b sp hon ton, 513 trng hc, nh tr, mu gio b tri
hon ton, thit hi nng n v nng lm ng nghip, tng thit hi c tnh 18 t ng
(theo thng k ca BCHPCLB Ngha Bnh). Trn l nm 1999 lm 22 ngi cht
630 ngi nh b sp hon ton, tng thit hi c tnh 228 t ng.
Mc thit hi do thin tai gy ra nhng nm gn y ngy cng nng n.
Nm 2003 thin tai lm cho tnh Bnh nh 29 ngi b cht, 2.233 ha la b mt
trng, 1.746 ha ao c b thit hi, 124 phng hc b ngp, 232 cu cng b hng, tng
thit hi l 198 t ng. Nm 2005 thit hi do thin ti gy ra ti tnh Bnh nh vi
39 ngi b cht, 2001 ha la b mt trng, 2.737 ha ao c b thit hi, 30 lp hc b
ngp, 253 cu cng b hng, tng thit hi ln n 219 t ng.
Trc tnh hnh thin tai, l lt ngy mt gia tng, tng cng nng lc
phng chng v gim nh thit hi do thin tai gy ra, trong cng tc cnh bo, d
bo l trn cc sng, phn vng ngp lt, c k hoch ng ph v la chn cc gii
php thch hp, phng chng cu h nhn dn vng b l, lt l mt nhu cp bch hin
nay.

2.4. Tng quan khu vc nghin cu
2.4.1. c im t nhin
V tr a l
Sng Kn l con sng ln nht ca tnh Bnh nh, bt ngun t cc vng ni
ca tnh Gia Lai v huyn An Lo chy qua huyn Vnh Thnh xung huyn Ty Sn
v n khu vc p By Yn (cui huyn Ty Sn, u huyn An Nhn) chia thnh 2
sng chnh: sng Tn An (xung h lu gm c nhiu sng) chy v hng ng
Nam qua mt s x ca huyn An Nhn, Tuy Phc v ra m Th Ni; sng p
(xung h lu gm c nhiu sng) chy v hng ng - Bc qua mt s x ca
huyn An Nhn, Ph Ct v ra m Th Ni thuc x Ct Chnh v Ct Thng.


21
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Sng Kn c din tch lu vc l 3.067 km
2
, di 178 km, dc lu vc 18,3% v mt
li sng 0,92 km/km
2
. Pha Bc gip lu vc sng Li Giang, pha Nam gip lu
vc sng H Thanh, pha Ty gip lu vc sng Ba, pha ng gip bin.

Hnh 2.11: Ranh gii lu vc sng Kn
a hnh, a mo
Do c hnh thnh trn sn pha ng ca dy Trng Sn Nam, lu vc
sng Kn c hng dc chnh theo hng t Ty sang ng vi chnh lch kh
cao (khong 1.000 m), cao trung bnh so vi mt bin l 700 m. dc bnh qun
lu vc 15,8%. cao bnh qun lu vc 567 m. dc y sng phn thng lu
t trung bnh 9,5, phn trung lu t 0,6, cn phn h lu di 0,4. B mt a
hnh chuyn tip t ni cao qua vng g i xung ng bng nn c th phn thnh
cc vng a hnh c trng:
Vng ni cao: Khu vc thng lu sng Kn do ni cao, sn dc nn cc
khe su a hnh ct xn rt phc tp, lu vc sng c dng lng chim.


22
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Vng g i: y l vng trung gian gia min ni v ng bng, gm nhiu
g i nhp nh xen k nhau. cao trung bnh trn di 200 m, cu to ch
yu bi Granit nhng ni tng i cao bng phng c cao t 30 40
m. dc kh ln, lp ph thc vt t.
Vng ng bng: thuc h lu sng Kn, t cao 20 m tr xung. Tuy vy
vn mang tnh cht ca cc cnh ng ven bin min Trung, b chia ct bi
cc ni st thp v lan ra tn bin nn vng chu th khng ng nht, trong
c phn ng bng hay b ngp lt do tiu thot nc khng kp. Song
vng ng bng y li kh bng phng, t ai do c bi p hng nm
bi ph sa ca sng nn mu m to nng sut la v hoa mu cao.

Bng 2.1: Phn b din tch theo cao
STT
Khong cao
(m)
Din tch
(ha)
STT
Khong cao
(m)
Din tch
(ha)
1 0,5 1.461,3
2 0,5 - 1,0 2.137,2 7 5,0 - 6,0 1.751,1
3 1,0 - 2,0 3.250,5 8 6,0 - 7,0 1.083,9
4 2,0 - 3,0 3.504,8 9 7,0 - 8,0 835.4
5 3,0 - 4,0 2.904,3 10 8,0 - 9,0 651,3
6 4,0 - 5,0 2.510,8 11 9,0 - 10,0 544,0
Ngun: [5]
Th nhng
Theo iu tra trong lu vc sng Kn H Thanh c ti 28 loi t khc nhau
phn b khng u trn ton lu vc. ng k c 14 loi t chim t l t 1% din
tch t t nhin tr ln v phn b trn lu vc nh sau:
a. t vng trn nn Macma axit (195.000 ha) chim gn mt na din tch
(chim 49%) phn b trn vng ni cao ( dc I > 0,15) ch thch hp vi
cy trng rng v cy cng nghip lu nm.


23
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
b. t xm trn nn Macma axit (36.000 ha) chim t l 9% din tch t lu
vc, phn b trn vng g i thch hp vi cy trng mu v cy cng
nghip
c. t ph sa bi v khng c bi (30.000 ha) t l 8% lu vc, phn b
vng ng bng trung du v h du sng Kn v H Thanh, t ny thch hp
trng la. V c cao trnh thp nn t ny thng b ngp ng trong ma l,
song n cng c bi p ph sa sng. Theo thng k nm 2000, c c
kt qu nh sau:

Bng 2.2: Thng k phn b t cc huyn, thnh ph
STT Phn theo qun, huyn Tng s (ha) C cu (%)
1 Thnh ph Qui Nhn 21.644 3,59
2 Huyn Vn Canh 79.797 13,24
3 Huyn Tuy Phc 28.487 4,73
4 Huyn An Nhn 24.218 4,02
5 Huyn Ty Sn 70.803 11,75
6 Huyn Vnh Thnh 70.079 11,63
7 Huyn Ph Ct 67.849 11,26
8 Huyn Ph M 54.942 9,12
9 Cc huyn khc 184.736 30,66
Ngun: [5]
Lp ph thc vt
Cy cng nghip v cy nng nghip
a. Cy la
Ton tnh c 53.156 ha, phn b: Ph Ct 9.504 ha, Tuy Phc 8.389 ha,
Ph M 8.230 ha, An Nhn 7.722 ha, Ty Sn 6.233 ha. Cc huyn cn li
trng la t 5.000 ha tr xung. Hai huyn trng la t nht l Vnh Thnh
892 ha v Vn Canh 786 ha.


24
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
b. Mu v cy cng nghip ngn ngy:
Ng, khoai, sn, ma, rau, u phng, u nnh v cc loi u khc, m,
thuc l, ci, du... Ton tnh c 29.731 ha, ng k l Ph M 4.441 ha, Ty
Sn 4.326 ha, Hoi Nhn 3.441 ha, Ph Ct 3.418 ha, cc huyn cn li c
din tch t 1.000 tr xung. Thp nht l Quy Nhn 549 ha v An Lo 354
ha.
c. Cy cng nghip lu nm:
Ton tnh c 322.621 ha bao gm cc cy ch, c ph, o, tiu, da, ca
cao, qu, cao su... Cy o phn b tp trung Ph Ct, Ph M, Hoi n v
Hoi Nhn. Cc vng da c din tch tp trung 4 huyn Hoi Nhn, Hoi
n, Ph M v Ph Ct. Cy c ph ch trng Vnh Thnh.
Cy n qu din tch ton tnh 3.446 ha, gm c cc cy xoi, chui, da
v nhm cy c mi. Xoi trng tp trung pha Ty Nam huyn Ty Sn,
pha Ty huyn Ph Ct, pha Ty huyn Ph M v cc di t ven bin,
ngoi ra cn ang pht trin cc huyn An Lo v Hoi n. Cy chui din
tch tp trung cc huyn An Lo, Hoi n, Vnh Thnh v Ty Sn. Cy
ma trng xen din tch cc cy lu nm, tp trung nhiu An Lo, Hoi n,
Vnh Thnh v Hoi Nhn. Nhm cy c mi nh cam bi v qut trng
kh rng nhiu huyn, ch yu trong t vn, tp trung nhiu cc huyn
An Lo, Hoi n, Hoi Nhn.
T l cy trng phn b nh trn cho thy s pht trin chm chp cy
cng nghip di ngy, cy mu v cy cng nghip ngn ngy. Cn ci to c
cu ging v cy trng thch hp v hiu qu cao hn.
Rng
Rng t nhin:
Rng t nhin sn xut:
Rng t nhin sn xut c din tch 142.860 ha, chim 24% din tch t
lm nghip, vi tr lng g 9.749.446 m
3
. Rng t nhin sn xut chia lm
cc chng loi:
+ Rng giu 3.944 ha, tr lng 712. 895 m
3
g.
+ Rng trung bnh 21.341 ha, tr lng 2.557.044 m
3
g.


25
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
+ Rng ngho 31.294 ha, tr lng 2.429.864 m
3
g
+ Rng phc hi 86.281 ha, tr lng 4.049.801 m
3
g.
T s liu trn thy rng din tch rng giu hin cn rt t, ch bng
18% din tch rng trung bnh, bng 12,6% din tch rng ngho v 4,5%
din tch rng phc hi. iu ny ni ln rng b tn ph v thoi ho
mc rt nghim trng. Tr lng trong khu vc rng ngho v rng phc
hi ch bng xp x gp 9 ln tr lng ca khu vc rng giu mc d din
tch ca n gp 29,8 ln din tch rng giu.
i vi rng giu hin ti Nh nc qun l 100% cn khu vc rng
phc hi Nh nc chim khong 21%.
Rng trng tp trung c din tch 41.035 ha cng vi cy trng phn tn
c tr lng khong 3 triu m
3
g.
Rng phng h:
Rng phng h chim din tch 299.788 ha, u l rng u ngun,
trong c rng 109.419 ha, tr lng rng phng h l 5.641.594 m
3
. Din
tch t rng phng h khng c rng 188.452 ha, trong cn trng rng
phng h 34.743 ha (k c phng h chng ct bay ven bin 2.305 ha). Din
tch c kh nng khoanh nui phc hi rng phng h 47.913 ha, din tch
ni 17.071 ha, cn ct di ng v st mp nc 2.191 ha, khoanh phng
h ni qu dc v cao xa 86.534 ha.
Kh tng, kh hu
Khu vc nghin cu nm trong vng kh hu nhit i gi ma c kh hu nng
m quanh nm. Do a hnh khu vc b che chn bi di Trng Sn pha Ty v cc
dy ni ngang chuyn tip t sn pha ng ca gii Trng Sn m ra bin nn
kh hu mang nhiu tnh cht ring bit so vi cc khu vc khc cng v .
Ch nng
Cc thng ma kh ni chung s gi nng kh cao, cc thng t nng l nhng
thng ma ma. Thng IV, V l thng c s gi nng cao nht vi tng gi nng trung
bnh 260 gi tr ln, thng XII l thng c s gi nng nh nht trung bnh 106 gi.
Trung bnh ngy thng IV l 8,4 gi/ngy, thng V l 8,6 gi/ngy, trong khi thng XII
ch l 3,4 gi/ ngy.


26
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Bng 2.3: S gi nng trung bnh ngy, thng nhiu nm ti Quy Nhn
S gi nng
Thng
1 2 3 4 5 6
TB ngy 5,2 6,3 8,2 8,4 8,6 7,3
Tng thng 157,8 192,6 240,7 260,1 269 243

S gi nng
Thng
7 8 9 10 11 12
TB ngy 7,9 6,7 6,0 5,2 3,9 3,4
Tng thng 248,4 218,8 192,9 163,6 128 106,4
Ngun: [5]

Hnh 2.12: S gi nng trung bnh ngy ti Quy Nhn

Nh vy, s gi nng ca thng t nng nht ch xp x bng mt na s gi
nng ca thng cc i. S chnh lch s gi nng ny cng phn nh r nt s tng
phn gia hai ma: ma kh v ma ma.


27
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Ch ma
Ma lu vc sng Kn phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian trong
nm cng nh gia cc nm.
a. Phn b ma theo khng gian:
Phn phi theo khng gian ca lng ma lu vc sng Kn H
Thanh rt khng ng u. Lng ma nm trung bnh o c c ni
nhiu ma nht v t ma nht chnh lch nhau rt ln.
Vng ni Vnh Sn v vng ni pha Bc tnh l hai khu vc c lng
ma ln nht tnh, tng lng ma nm trung bnh t 2.220 3.030mm vi
trung tm ma ln nht thuc huyn min ni An Lo. Vng ma ln th hai
l vng ni Vnh Kim thuc trung lu sng Kn, huyn Vn Canh thng
ngun sng H Thanh v cc huyn ven bin pha Bc ca tnh t 2.000
2.180 mm. Nhng vng cn li nh vng ven bin pha Nam ca tnh, huyn
Ty Sn, pha ng huyn min ni Vnh Thnh v lu vc h lu sng Kn
lng ma nm trung bnh t t 1.610 1.880 mm trong tm ma thp
nht l khu vc Tn An v cc x pha ng huyn Tuy Phc vi lng
ma nm trn di 1.600 mm.
b. Phn b ma theo thi gian:
Ma ma thng bt u t thng IX n thng XII, chim khong 70
75% tng lng ma nm. Lng ma ln nht tp trung vo hai thng X,
XI chim ti 45 55% lng ma nm.
Ma t ma t thng I n thng VIII. t ma nht l cc thng II, III, IV.
Cc thng V, VI c ma tiu mn trung bnh khong 100 mm. Nu ma tiu
mn ln hn 100 mm tp trung trong vng 5 7 ngy th c th gy l tiu
mn.
Theo thng k s liu nhiu nm ti lu vc sng Kn H Thanh cho
thy nm 1982 l nm c lng ma t nht nh Bnh Tng 968 mm, Tn
An 875 mm, Hoi Nhn l 1.014 mm, Ph Ct 888 mm, Vn Canh 896 mm.
Nm 1998 l nm m hu ht cc im o ma u t cc i nh Vnh
Kim t 3.502 mm, Quy Nhn 2.889 mm, Ph M 3.239 mm.


28
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Nm 1996 l nm c s liu ma nm cng rt ln mt s ni nh:
Vn Canh 3.436 mm, Tn An 2.700 mm, Ph Ct 3.202 mm.
Lng ma nm ln nht gp 3 4 ln lng ma nm nh nht, c khi
ln hn na.
Ma ma lu vc sng Kn H Thanh v ton Bnh nh ni chung
l t thng IX n thng XII. Ma kh t thng I VIII. Qua s liu nhiu
nm, tt c cc im o t thng IX n thng XI u t lng ma thng
trn 100 mm.
Bn thng ma ma, lng ma trung bnh nhiu nm khong 1.200
1.700 mm, ring vng ni An Ha 2.180 mm chim t 66 79% tng lng
ma nm. Tng lng ma ma kh khong 380 850 mm, chim 21 34%
lng ma nm, trong vng ni chim 28 34%, ven bin chim 21
26% lng ma.

Bng 2.4: Bng mt s c trng ma nm lu vc sng Kn
(n v mm)
Trm
Ma trung
bnh nm
Nm ma
max
Nm
xut hin
Nm ma
min
Nm xut
hin
Vnh Sn 2.271 3.436 1999 1.188 1982
Vnh Kim 2.102 3.502 1998 1.155 1982
Bnh Quang 1.793 3.504 1981 666 1982
Bnh Tng 1.863 3.020 1999 968 1982
Vn Canh 2.114 3.436 1996 896 1982
Qui Nhn 1.846 2.889 1998 1.130 1982
Tn An 1.611 2.700 1996 875 1982
An Nhn 1.748 2.673 1996 1.145 1982
Ph Ct 1.884 3.202 1996 888 1982
Hoi Nhn 2.026 3.490 1981 1.014 1982


29
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Trm
Ma trung
bnh nm
Nm ma
max
Nm
xut hin
Nm ma
min
Nm xut
hin
Ph M 2.005 3.239 1998 1.132 1978
Ngun: [5]

Hnh 2.13: Bn phn b lng ma nm 1996
Mng li thy vn
Sng Kn nh Bnh .067
km
2
1000 m. S c

-
i.
sng


30
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Chiu di sng t ngun n ca l 178 km c th chia lm 3 on c c trng
nh bng:
Bng 2.5: c trng hnh thi dng chnh sng
on sng
Din tch
lu vc
(km
2
)
Chiu
di on
sng
(km)
dc
()
Mt
li sng
(km/km
2
)
H s un
khc
Ngun Bnh
Tng
1.677 120 9,15
Ngun Bnh Thnh 2.239 138
Ngun Bin 3.067 178 0,158 0,65 1,54
Ngun : [5]
Do c im kh hu, iu kin a hnh lu vc sng Kn nn ch dng
chy phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian.
Phn b dng chy theo khng gian
Dng chy sng Kn thuc loi trung bnh, phn b khng u trn lu vc.
Ni c dng chy kh l vng ni cao, c lng ma ln. Thng ngun cc sng sui
c vch ni chn gi ng Bc, modul dng chy nm vng thng lu cc sng M
o
>
50 l/s.km
2
. Ni c dng chy nh l vng trung du, cc thung lng khut gi v vng
ng bng, h s modul dng chy M
o
< 30 l/s.km
2
.
Sng Kn vi F
lv
=1677 km
2
ti Cy Mung c Q
o
= 66,8 m
3
/s tng ng vi m
s dng chy (M) = 39,8 l/s.km
2
v tng lng dng chy nm W
o
t 2,1 t m
3
nc.

Bng 2.6: c trng dng chy sng Kn
Sng V tr
F
lv

(km
2
)
X
o

(mm)
Q
o

(m
3
/s)
M
o

l/s. km
2

W
o

(10
6
m
3
)
Kn
Cy Mung 1.677,0 2.160 66,80 39,8 2.107
Bin 3.067,0 2.000 113,00 36,8 3.564
Ngun : [5]


31
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Phn b dng chy theo thi gian
Trong nm cng nh gia cc nm dng chy trn sng Kn phn phi rt
khng u. Mt nm chia thnh hai ma r rt: Ma kit ko di 8 thng (t thng I
n VIII) chim khong 30 35% lng dng chy nm. Khong thi gian ny
thng xut hin mt t ma gy l tiu mn trong thng V hoc VI. Thng VIII
dng chy gim, n cui thng dng chy c xu hng tng ln do mt s nm ma
l xy ra sm hn trung bnh nhiu nm cng thi k. Tnh ton cho chui s liu t
nm 1979 2007 c bng c trng sau:

Bng 2.7: Lu lng hng thng ti trm Bnh Tng, sng Kn
c trng
Thng
I II III IV V VI
Trung bnh 51,6 30,0 21,0 16,5 21,1 25,3
Max 83,9 45,2 42,4 31,7 77,8 102,3
Nm 1999 1999 1994 2000 86 84
Min 34,6 22,3 14,6 11,5 10,6 11,7
Nm 1983 1983 1983 1983 2007 2007

c trng
Thng
VII VIII IX X XI XII
Trung bnh 17,9 17,2 39,0 175 269 165,9
Max 48,4 47,7 201,8 1.483 1.868 764,8
Nm 2000 83 2002 1992 1.987 2.000
Min 10,1 8,4 12,3 24,1 76.0 60,0
Nm 2002 2007 1985 2007 1987 1982
Ngun : [5]


32
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 2.14: Phn phi dng chy nm ti trm Bnh Tng

Bng 2.8: Phn phi dng chy theo ma trm Bnh Tng
Lng dng chy bnh
qun (m
3
/s)
Tng lng dng chy bnh
qun (10
9
m
3
)
T l (%)
Trong
nm
Ma
l
Ma cn C nm Ma l Ma cn Ma l Ma cn
830 592 238 2,15 1,53 0,62 71,2 28,8
Ngun : [5]
Dng chy ma kit: Trn sng Kn ti Cy Mung Q
thng kit
nh nht xut hin
vo thng 4 vi Q
min
=15,8 m
3
/s, tng ng vi M=9,47 l/s.km
2
. Dng chy thng 4 ch
chim 1,97% dng chy nm.
Dng chy ma l: Ma l ko di t thng 10 12, lng dng chy chim t
70 75% dng chy nm. L ln nht thng xy ra vo na cui thng X v thng
XI.

.

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX
Q(m3/s)
Thng


33
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
: Bin ng dng chy thng qua cc nm

Flv
Cy Mung
1677 km
2

Qtb (m
3
/s) Qmax (m
3
/s) Qmin (m
3
/s)
Qmax
Qmin
Qtb
Qmin
1 47,9 119,8 11,8 10,15 4,06
2 29,2 62,0 6,9 8,93 4,20
3 20,0 46,2 4,9 9,50 4,11
4 15,8 35,1 2,8 12,48 5,61
5 20,5 50,8 6,3 8,06 3,25
6 24,1 60,5 5,4 11,29 4,49
7 17,7 42,1 6,1 6,95 2,93
8 18,0 52,6 5,7 9,17 3,14
9 39,2 160,0 10,6 15,06 3,69
10 167 386,7 12,8 30,25 13,06
11 259 616,0 30,4 20,26 8,51
12 143 538,1 16,4 32,85 8,75
Ngun: [5]
Ti trm Cy Mu
3
/s x
2
.
2.4.2. c im kinh t - x hi
Dn s, dn c
Lu vc sng Kn thuc phm vi cc huyn Vnh Thnh, Ty Sn, An Nhn,
Ph Ct, Tuy Phc.
Dn s gm 698.559 ngi, tp trung ch yu cc huyn thuc h lu sng
Kn, mt trung bnh 273 ngi/km
2
; trong huyn An Nhn c mt dn s cao
nht (737 ngi/km
2
) v thp nht l huyn Vnh Thnh (39 ngi/km
2
). S dn thnh
th c 96.178 ngi, chim t l 13,7% s dn trong khu vc.


34
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Bng 2.10: Din tch, dn s cc a phng trong lu vc
Thnh ph,
th x, huyn
Din tch
(km
2
)
Dn s trung bnh (ngi)
Tng Thnh th Nng thn
H. Vnh
Thnh
722,5125 28.156 5.338 22.818
H. Ty Sn 692,9600 123.339 20.017 103.322
H.An Nhn 242,6400 178.724 34.442 144.282
H. Ph Ct 680,4900 188.168 10.967 177.201
H. Tuy Phc 217,1200 180.172 25.414 154.758
Ngun: [5]
Hin trng s dng t
Din tch t nng nghip l 100.982,62 ha chim 39,5%, t lm nghip
103.581,75 ha chim 40,5%.

Bng 2.11: Hin trng s dng t cc huyn thuc lu vc sng Kn
(n v ha)
Huyn/x
DT t t
nhin
t NN t lm nghip
t cha s
dng
Vnh Thnh 72.251,25 7.470,27 44.255,92 16.744,84
Ty Sn 69.296,00 50.957,40 34.099,65 8.450,04
An Nhn 24.264,40 11.229,4 5.700,5 1.907,6
Ph Ct 68.048,83 21.563,55 17.158,68 24.798,5
Tuy Phc 21.712 9.762 2.367 1.559
(Ngun: Phn vin kh tng thy vn & mi trng pha Nam)

Hin trng pht trin kinh t trong lu vc
Trong lu vc sng Kn, huyn An Nhn l huyn c nn kinh t tng i
pht trin. Tuy nhin nhng nm gn y, tc tng trng ch t mc trung
bnh (bnh qun trong giai on 2005 2010 l 10,03%), C cu kinh t chuyn dch


35
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
ng hng. Gi tr sn xut cng nghip v thng mi dch v chim t trng
55,65%. Gi tr sn xut bnh qun u ngi nm 2010 t gn 16 triu ng.
Huyn Ty Sn, mc d l huyn trung du min ni nhng nhng nm gn y
c s pht trin kh. Tc tng trng kinh t bnh qun hng nm t 14,98%,
c cu kinh t c s chuyn bin tch cc. Cng nghip xy dng chim 32,5%,
thng mi - dch v - du lch chim 42,7%, nng lm ng nghip t 24,8%. Tng
sn phm x hi/ngi/nm t 12,43 triu ng.
Trong khi , Vnh Thnh l huyn c li th v nng lm nghip (chim t
trng 51,26%, trong khi cng nghip TTCN ch t 3,36%. Thu nhp bnh qun
u ngi 9,48 triu ng.

2.5. Tnh hnh l lt sng Kn
Nm 2002: C 4 t ma l xy ra t 18/9 n 14/12/2002. Hu ht cc trn
l xy ra u trn mc bo ng II.
Nm 2003:C 3 t ma l xy ra t 2/10 n 14/11/2002. Hu ht cc trn
l xy ra trn mc bo ng III.
Nm 2005: C tt c 4 t ma l xy ra t 12/9 n 17/12/2005 ti Thnh
Ha nh l trn mc bo ng cp III (7,51 m).
Nm 2006: Tnh hnh l lt nm 2006 khng ng k so vi cc nm trc.
Nm 2007: Trong 4 thng ma ma, din bin thi tit tr nn phc tp; c
bit l trong 2 thng 10 v 11 do nh hng kt hp ca bo, p thp nhit
i, trn a bn Bnh nh lin tc xy ra nhiu trn ma ln vi tng
lng ma o c trong 2 thng t 1400 n 2700 mm (bng 150 200%
tng lng ma cng k trung bnh hng nm) gy ra 5 t ma l ln
trong t ma l t ngy 2 5/11/2007 l rt ln, mc nc trn cc trin
sng trong tnh u t mc bo ng cp III, ring vng h lu cc sng Li
Giang, Kn v H Thanh nh l vt mc bo ng cp III t 104 cm n
141 cm, vt nh l lch s nm 1999 t 20 cm n 37 cm, v nu nh
khng c s tham gia iu tit l hp l ca cc h cha ln nh nh Bnh,
Ni Mt, Thun Ninh th nh l nm 2007 ti h lu sng Kn chc chn s
cao hn mc o c c.

36
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

CHNG 3
NI DUNG V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
3.1. Ni dung nghin cu
3.1.1. Xc nh cc YTTP c la chn nghin cu
Nghin cu nguyn nhn, c im, c ch hnh thnh v a ra cc YTTP
chnh lin quan n l lt.
3.1.2. S dng GIS AHP xy dng cc lp YTTP
S dng cc d liu, chc nng to, hiu chnh, kh nng tnh ton, th hin d
liu GIS v AHP sau tin hnh xy dng cc lp YTTP nh bn dc a hnh,
thc ph, bn ma to c s cho vic hnh thnh nn bn phn vng nguy c
l lt.
3.1.3. Thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c l lt
Da vo cc yu t c la chn tin hnh xc nh vng nguy c l lt. Bn
phn vng nguy c l lt l hp bi cc YTTP. Tng hp cc lp yu t thnh phn
c xy dng bng chng lp raster to ra bn phn vng nguy c l lt c
thng tin mang tnh nh lng v v tr nguy c v mc nguy c l lt cho tng v
tr khu vc nghin cu. Trong mc chnh xc ca bn phn vng nguy c l
lt s c kim chng v nh gi khi hon thnh.

3.2. Phng php nghin cu
3.2.1. Khi nim bn nguy c
Trong khoa hc t nhin ni chung, trong cc khoa hc v tri t ni ring,
xy dng bn l mt cng c ph bin, quan trng, khng th thiu. Xy dng bn
c xem va l phng php nghin cu, va l phng tin th hin cc kt qu
nghin cu mt cch hu hiu.
Bn nguy c (bn d bo) gip chng ta thy trc c s pht trin ca
cc TBTN trong tng li, gip tr li cu hi u?, Khi no? v Vi nguy

37
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
him no?. Bn d bo TBTN c th tr li cc cu hi ni trn n tng v tr c
th vi mc chi tit v chnh xc, ph thuc vo t l ca bn .
Bn d bo TBTN (bn nguy c) d bo s pht trin trong khng gian
(trc ht) theo mt thng s (cng c th mt thng s tng hp) no trn nhng
n v t nh nht m k thut bn c th phn nh c, ph thuc vo t l bn
. Cc n v din tch khc nhau vi 5, 7 cp nguy him khc nhau, phn b an
xen nhau, nhiu khi rt phc tp, tuy rng, ni chung, c qui lut, nhng phi qua mt
qu trnh phn tch nht nh, trong nhiu trng hp, rt kh khn mi nhn ra c.
3.2.2. Phn tch cc yu t thnh phn nh hng n l lt
- C s khoa hc nh gi nh hng ca cc yu t thnh phn ti l lt
L lt l hin tng thin tai ph bin trn th gii v c bit ph bin trong
vng nhit i gi ma. Hin tng l lt phn ln gn lin vi ma ln trong bo, v
s phn ha a hnh ca cc lu vc. Chng ph thuc vo din tch ca lu vc, hnh
thi ca lu vc, mt ca dng chy trong tng lu vc, cao v dc a hnh,
dy v tnh cht ca tng t cng vi lp v phong ha, tnh trng lp ph thc
vt, hin trng khai thc v s dng ti nguyn trn lu vc.
S pht sinh l v lt ph thuc vo cc iu kin:
- iu kin cn: l ma ti cng ti hn to thnh cc dng chy
vt mc bnh thng.
- iu kin : l cu trc mt m. (Cao ng D, 1996; L Hunh Bc,
1996).
Mt m c hiu l khong khng gian a l b mt tri t, c gii hn
pha trn l kh quyn v pha di l ranh gii hot ng ca nc ngm tng nng.
Mt m l h thng ng t nhin ca b mt tri t, ni bc l s tng tc hot
ng ca thch quyn, thy quyn, sinh quyn, kh quyn v cc hot ng pht trin
ca con ngi, l din trng xy ra l lt v cc dng thin tai khc. V mt a l,
khi nim mt m c hiu l ton b cu trc mt t ca cnh quan tr hp phn
trong kh quyn. Cc hp phn trn b mt t ca cnh quan c mi lin quan qua li
vi nhau, quyt nh ln nhau trong chc nng iu tit, phn phi li lng nc trn
b mt do kh quyn a vo to nn dng chy trn mt. Khi lng nc a vo
vt qu kh nng iu tit ca cnh quan, lm dng chy mt vt trn mc bnh

38
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
thng to nn hin tng l thng lu, trung lu v hin tng lt cc trng v
vng h lu ca lu vc. S phn ha phc tp ca cc hp phn cnh quan to nn
s phn ha kh nng iu tit nc khc nhau ca cc lu vc, l biu hin c th
ca mi quan h gia cu trc v chc nng iu tit nc ca cnh quan. Hng
nghin cu l lt trc y ca chng ta ch tp trung vo cc vn quan h gia
ma vi dng chy l trn cc con sng v lt di h lu. Lng ma trn cc
lu vc sng ca Vit Nam trong thi gian qua tuy c nhng bin i nh nhng hin
tng thin tai l lut, xi l b bin, l qut, trt l t li xy ra thng xuyn
hn v c cng ln hn. iu cho php cc nh nghin cu ngh n qu trnh
suy thoi ca cc cnh quan mt t, lm suy gim kh nng iu tit nc ca chng.
Hng nghin cu phn tch mi quan h gia l lt vi cc yu t cu thnh ca cnh
quan nhm tm ra cc cu tr li ng trong qun l v khai thc lnh th nhm gim
nh cc thit hi do l lt gy ra ng thi gp phn hiu bit k hn v thin nhin
nhit i gi ma ca Vit Nam. Trong nghin cu l lt truyn thng, m hnh ma
mt m dng chy l, cho chng ta nhng cu tr li khi qut nht, cc yu t
c nh lng l lng ma, cng ma v dng chy l. Nhng tn tht do
s iu tit ca mt m c tnh ton mt cch tng qut. gii quyt vn ny,
cc nh thy vn Vit Nam nh lng bng h s iu tit t nhin (), n ph
thuc vo m, thm ca t, lp ph rng. H s iu tit t nhin theo tnh ton
c biu hin ph hp vi ng con nc rt trn cc con sng trong ma l. Tuy
nhin y l mt cng thc tng hp cha phn tch tng minh vai tr ca tng yu
t trong h thng t nhin ca lnh th. Vic phn tch nh tnh cc chc nng iu
tit nc ca tng hp phn cho php gii thch c nhng nguyn nhn sn sinh ra
l lt cc cnh quan khc nhau trong cng mt iu kin ma. Mt khc nhng biu
hin khc bit v trc lng hnh thi ca cc lu vc cng c th s dng gii
thch cc chnh lch v mc l lt trn cc lu vc .
Ngun ca dng chy mt:
Vic to thnh dng chy mt lin quan n ma v c tnh ca vng t. C
hai c ch to thnh dng mt do ma:

39
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
C ch thm m: Dng chy mt xy ra khi mc nc ngm tng nng
dng ln n tn mt t, to nn t b bo ha nc, c tc gi gi l c
ch bo ha.
C ch vt thm: Xy ra khi cng ma ln, vt cao hn tc thm
ca t. (Horton, 1933; Freeze, 1972; Dune, 1983).
Hai c ch trn y c th xy ra mt cch ring bit, nhng ph bin hn l
chng kt hp vi nhau to nn dng chy mt. Trong c hai trng hp ma ri
trc tip trn mt t, to thnh dng chy trc tip hay l dng chy mt mt vng
khc. Nhng vng ny c th bao ph mt phn ca lu vc, c th dao ng v din
tch, ph thuc vo tnh cht ca t nh kh nng thm m, kh nng gii phng m,
hm lng cht hu c, su ca tng gii hn nc, lai lch ca lng nc trong
t v ph thuc vo a hnh. Dng chy ca vng c lin quan n dng chy ca c
lu vc. Cc vng b bo ha nc trong t thng c tm thy cc cnh quan
phn b trn cch sn lm, dc gim, t nng, cc iu kin thun li vic to
thnh mt dng thot nc t t dc theo sn dc v l vng tp trung nc trong
cnh quan. i vi dng chy vt thm, xy ra khi c s phn ha trong khng gian
ca tc thm nc ca t trong lu vc. S dao ng ca tc thm trong cnh
quan ph thuc vo a th ca a hnh thng thng trn cng mt loi t th dc
ca a hnh cao s lm gim bt tc thm nc ca t, dng chy vt thm rt
ph bin xy ra cc vng c dc cao.
Ti cc vng nhit i, nhp iu ma gia ma m v ma kh l hin tng
rt ph bin, n c phn nh trong ch dng chy ni ring v ch thy vn
ni chung ca lnh th. Khi lng ma thay i theo ma, ch nc trong t v c
dng chy mt trn cc con sng cng c tch ra thnh cc c tnh c trng cho
ma m v ma kh. Nhng khc bit ny nh hng su sc n h sinh thi trn cn
v di nc, nh hng n cc hot ng nng nghip cng nh hot ng kinh t
x hi khc trong lu vc. Vic phn tch ngun ca dng chy thc cht l mt cng
vic tng hp, n lin quan n rt nhiu yu t, y ni n c ch bo ha v c
ch vt thm l ni n nhng yu t mang tnh trc tip, yu t dc lm tng
cng nng lng ni ti ca dng chy mt, lm ln t nng lng thm ca t, bn
thn kh nng thm ca t l mt yu t v cng nhy cm, b ph thuc vo nhiu

40
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
cc yu t khc, s suy gim kh nng thm ca t s lm thay i mt cch rt r
rng dng chy mt, dn dn nhng vng t b suy thoi s mt hn c ch bo ha
m ch cn mt c ch vt thm.
nh hng ca yu t t v a cht n dng chy:
Lp ph ca lnh th cng vi c im ca t quyt nh thm nc
ca lnh th. thm ca t ng vai tr quan trng trong iu tit dng chy mt.
Nc ma ri xung mt t, mt phn c thm vo lp t mt cng nh v phong
ha ca lnh th, mt phn c gi li trong cy, mt phn b bc thot hi, cn li
mt phn to thnh dng chy mt. nhng lnh th c phn bit hai mu m v kh,
dng chy v ch thy vn cng c phn ha theo. Trong ma ma, lng nc
d tha sau khi nc thm m lnh th, dng chy mt t ti cc i i vi cc
trn ma c cng k lc trong nm. Ngc li trong ma kh lng nc mt do
ma n ht, tuy nhin cc dng chy vn c duy tr do nc d tr trong t
cung cp, nc c huy ng t cc lp t trn cc vng t dc trn cao,
thng thng cc lnh th c rng vng nhit i, lng ma ny c th duy tr
dng chy thng xuyn n ht ma kh. Lng nc d tr trong lnh th nhiu
hay t ph thuc vo loi t, tng dy ca t v v phong ha, hm lng mn trong
t, n cn ph thuc vo lng ma nm ca vng. Dng chy ma kh s gim dn
cho n cc tiu vo cui ma kh. i vi cc vng t c lng tr m lnh th
khng cao, dng chy ma kh c th kt thc trc khi ma ma ti. Trong trng
hp lu vc b suy thoi nghim trng dng chy ch duy tr c trong ma ma khi
ma ma kt thc, dng chy cng chm dt, l cc dng chy tm thi.
nhng ni c kh nng thm km, khi t ti trng thi bo ha cng khng
tr c bao nhiu nc, khi gp ma c cng ln s to nn dng mt, c bit
l trn t c dc. i vi cc loi t ny, trong cc trn ma u ma, d t
cha bo ha nc nhng cng ma vt qu thm ca t cng to nn dng
chy mt, l dng chy vt thm. Ngha l trong khi dng chy vt thm hnh
thnh th qu trnh dn ti bo ha nc trong t vn song song tin hnh, n khi t
bo ha nc. Khi dng chy mt t 100% lng nc ma ri xung t. Cng
cn nhn thy rng mt s vng c ma kh ko di, t li c nng lc thm su v
rng, trong ma kh lng m trn tng t mt gim xung thp hn m cy ho,

41
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
trong t ct c thm nhanh nhng kh nng tr m km. cc vng ny cy ci
phi tm nc tng su di mt t, nhiu khi n 8 m, lm cho lng nc tr tr
trong ma kh cng cn kt v cng h bt lng m trong vng. Do nng lc thm
su v rng ca mt s loi t, to iu kin cho di chuyn ngang ca nc ngm, i
khi kh nng y cng lm cn kit nc ngay t sau ma ma khng lu, nht l trn
cc a hnh dc.
Nh vy c im ca t quyt nh thm ca lnh th, trn mt vng c
th tri cc loi vt cht khc nhau. Cc nghin cu Horton Overland cho thy cc
dng chy mt khc nhau v chy trn cc loi t c thm khc nhau, cng nh
vy Binley v nhng ngi khc nghin cu nh hng trn dng chy mt vng t
dc c di 100 m c cu to t khng ng nht v nhn thy dng chy mt
tng ln vng c cu to t khng ng nht. Trong trng hp t c thm
cao, nh hng ln nht l lm gim dng chy mt v ngc li i vi vng c
thm thp. Nh vy vic phn kiu thy vn, quan h khng gian v loi t l rt c
ngha. Nhng nghin cu xy dng m hnh d bo dng chy l, ngha ca loi t
c a vo nh mt hp phn rt c bn, trong mt m hnh d bo tc nh l,
s dng h s C, c gi l h s dng chy mt (runoff coefficient), h s ny ph
thuc v loi t. Mt so snh ca hi xy dng dn dng M vi ba loi t (ct, tht,
st) kt hp vi 10 hnh thc s dng t, cho thy trong t nng thn h s dng
chy mt thp nht loi t ct, trung bnh loi t tht v cao nht loi t st,
iu ny cng chng minh r hn v kh nng iu tit dng chy ca loi t, t st
thm t c h s dng chy mt cao ngc li t ct thm nhanh c h s dng chy
thp, t tht nm v tr trung bnh. Trong nghin cu ca Ng nh Tun nhn thy
kh nng iu tit nc ph thuc cc iu kin m, thm nhiu hay t, ph rng
ln hay b. Theo ng nhng vng c kh nng iu tit nc km phn ln nm trong
vng vi, vng c kh nng iu tit nc tt phn ln nm trong vng c cu to
Granit.
Kh nng thm nc ca cc loi t c lu nghin cu, tuy nhin rt t
nghin cu cp n dy ca t v tng phong ha.

42
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
nh hng ca trc lng hnh thi lu vc n dng chy:
Nhng nghin cu v nh hng ca trc lng hnh thi n dng chy cha
c cp n nhiu. Tuy nhin trc lng hnh thi lu vc l yu t quan trng
trong nghin cu thy vn c bit l nghin cu v l lt. Trong nghin cu ca mnh
trong tc phm nghin cu cc qu trnh thy vn trn t dc, tc gi J.A.A.Jones
a cc yu t mt t xy dng m hnh tnh ton qua h s ma v dng chy
mt. Cc yu t trc lng hnh thi l din tch lu vc, dc, hnh dng, mt
li sng, cc nhn t ny c nh gi:
Din tch lu vc: Mt trong nhng yu t quan trng nht, n l c s cho
nhng s o khc. Nhn chung din tch lu vc cng ln th dng chy cng
ln.
a hnh ca lu vc: i din cho s phn b din tch trong lu vc ph
hp vi cc cao a hnh khc nhau. Dng chung nht l phn trm din
tch ca tng cao khc nhau so vi din tch ton lu vc. Nhng nhn
bit trc gic ca cc nh nghin cu cng thy kh nng xy ra lt s rt cao
khi din tch vng t dc thng ngun ln hn nhiu so vi vng t
thp, v d nh lu vc sng Thu Bn Nam Trung B Vit Nam c din
tch lu vc 10.500 km
2
trong 80% din tch phn b trn vng ni, vi
cc thung lng nh hp, cc nh ni cao, phn cn li 20% trn vng t
thp, vy kh nng lt nhng vng t thp l rt cao, do vy 31.000 ha t
vng thp lun c nguy c b lt vi thi gian ngm t 1 n 3 ngy t
thng 9 n thng 11 hng nm.
di sng sui: nh hng n tc thu nc v vn chuyn nc, cc
s o c th s dng trong nhiu trng hp v nhiu cch nh: chiu di
ca dng chnh, tng chiu di ca cc dng.
dc ca lu vc: nh hng trc tip n tc truyn l, dc cng
cao truyn l cng nhanh; trong nghin cu dng chy, s chnh lch ca
dc lu vc v gc nghin ca ma xc nh tnh trng ca dng mt. Ngoi
ra dng sn xc nh kiu ng nht hoc khng ng nht ca dng chy
tng nng. S bo ha thng xy ra cc sn trng (lm), ngun
nc ngm thot ra b mt.

43
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Mt sng sui: Mt sng sui cng cao, dng chy cng ln
Trong hnh 3.1 tc gi trch dn cc hnh thi trc lng lu vc ca tc gi
J.A.A.Jones trong cun thy vn th gii 1995 chng c km theo bng cc thy
vi quan h gia dng chy v thi gian dng chy.
Horton (1945) v Strahler (1964) xc nh con s cc quy lut trc lng
hnh thi (Morphometric Laws), lin quan n mt dng, di dng chy, dc
lu vc v din tch lu vc, t phn loi cc loi lu vc khc nhau phc v cho
nghin cu thy vn.

Din tch lu vc dc lu vc

Hnh dng lu vc Mt dng chy
Hnh 3.1: nh hng ca trc lng hnh thi lu vc n thy

Vai tr ca loi hnh s dng t:
Vai tr ca loi hnh s dng t trong nghin cu dng chy v l rt quan
trng. Trong t nhin kh nng iu tit nc ca cc loi t l khc nhau, tuy nhin
trong khai thc t cho pht trin kinh t do tc ng ca con ngi, mi loi hnh s

44
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
dng t cho mt nng lc iu tit nc khc nhau, nc ma ri xung mt t
ngoi phn thm m lp t cn bc hi v to ra dng chy mt. Nu kh nng thm
thp do mt t b che chn, nc ma s to thnh dng mt vi mt t l cao v dn
n h s dng chy (runoff coefficient) cao. Trong nghin cu ca mnh Dune v
Leopol (1978) chng minh s khc bit v h s dng chy ca cc loi hnh s
dng t khc nhau trn mt vi loi t khc nhau, kt qu trnh by bng 3.1:

Bng 3.1: Mt s gi tr ca h s dng chy cc loi hnh s dng t khc nhau
Loi t
Loi s dng t
Ct Tht St
Nng thn
t hoang 0,20 0,40 0,50
Chn th 0,15 0,35 0,45
Cy g 0,10 0,30 0,40
th
Vng thng mi 0,75 0,90
Vng cng nghip 0,50 0,90
Vng dn c 0,25 0,40
Vng khng xy dng 0,10 0,30
B mt th
Mi nh 0,75 0,95
ng nha 0,70 0,95
Cng vin 0,10 0,35
Ngun: theo Dune v Leopol, 1978
S dng t c ti tiu v s dng h cha: Hai cng vic ny lm tng nc
trn b mt v ng thi lm tng lng m trong t. t no nc hoc mt nc lm
kch thch s bc hi do gim alberdo, tng cng thu nhp bc x thc t v lm bc
hi thc t ca lnh th gn tim cn n mc bc hi tim nng. Nh vy lm tng s
mt mt ca nc trong lnh th. ng v tng th chng ta ng gp mt phn
trong iu chnh lng nc ca a phng. Nhng tng kt ca UNESCO nm 1978
cng b, thng c 75 90% lng nc s dng cho ti hng nm b bc hi

45
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
mt. Vit Nam, Ng nh Tun nghin cu 4 vng cho la nc ng xun v h
thu, ng kt lun t l nc c a vo t ng rung (nc hi quy) l trung bnh
20%. i vi h cha, Fels v Keller (1973) c tnh nh hng ca bc hi trong h
cha khong 10%.
Vic i su nghin cu vai tr iu tit nc ca bin php s dng t s gp
phn trong tnh ton chnh xc hn v dng chy mt.
nh hng ca lp ph thc vt ln dng chy:
Cc thm rng hoang d thnh thc gi mt vai tr quan trng trong chu trnh
nc. Ngy nay do cc tc ng nhn sinh, sinh hc, vt l, cc thm cy g dn bin
thnh cy bi, thm c v t trng trt, do vy kh nng ngn chn dng nc v
thot nc u b suy gim. Tim nng bc thot hi gim xung khi tng cng
alberdo b mt, v do suy gim cn bng bc x. V d cc vng cy g tha,
vng t trng trt v vng t hoang, vic ti tiu nc s dn n xu th lm gim
mc m trong t v cng lm gim lng tht thot do bc hi thc t.
Keyer (1996) c tnh khi cht ph thm thc vt rng vng nhit i lm
gim bc hi thc t l 400 mm/nm v vo khong 200 mm/nm vng n i.
C th c tnh dng chy mt b nh hng bi nhm ca b mt theo cc
loi cy g khc nhau, nghin cu rng thng v bch n cho thy vo khong 40
mm dng chy mt tng ln khi gim i 10% din tch rng. Trong khi i vi rng g
cng (hardwood) rng l, tng ln 25 mm dng mt v cy bi tng 10 mm khi gim
10% din tch lp ph tng ng. Nguyn nhn khc bit y l s ngn chn
dng chy mt v su ca r cy.
Cc tng phn ln nht thng xy ra cc vng c lng ma cao. Tuy
nhin s sinh trng mnh m ca cc thc vt trong cc mi trng ny cng lm
cho nhng nh hng ngn li.
S suy gim din tch rng lm nn xu hng gim thi gian tp trung nc,
tng cng ln ca nh l v tng nguy c l lt. Cc thc nghim lu vc
USDA Coweeta thuc bc Carolina cho thy dng chy tng 11% v nh l tng
7% (Hewlet v Hanvey, 1970). Ti Texas: Wood et al thng bo tng ng k lng
ph sa v nh l. (Wood et al, 1989). Ni chung nh l cao hn v dng chy mt

46
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
tng ln cc lu vc ch c c, y thm ca t v nhm ca b mt u
gim xung.
Mt s bo co cc thuc a ca cc nc u chu vo cui th k 19, u
th k 20 c cp ti nh hng khi cht ph rng. c bit l chu M, c, Tn
Ty Lan, sau khi thm thc vt rng t nhin b cht ph, nhng vng ny thng
xuyn xy ra l qut v xi mn t.
Victoria cht rng vo nhng nm 1870, sau lnh th b tng cng v s
l ma xun, chng c gii thch nh l kt qu ca s suy gim thot hi nc.
Nghin cu trn cc lu vc thng ngun, t l ng gp ca cc con sng ni c
rng vo dng chy khng cao. Lesaeck (1993) c tnh dng chy trn 23,4 ha
rng thng ngun Amazonia, ch ng gp vo 5% trong tng s dng chy hng
nm. S gim bt nh l trong lu vc c rng c gii thch rng trong lu vc c
thm nc cao, nng lc tr m ln hn. Ngc li nh l s cao hn khi cht ph
rng.
T liu lot im quan trc c kch thc 1x7m, thit lp trn cng mt
dc di rng v c ch s dng khc nhau cho nng nghip Philippines, ch
ra rng dng chy mt di rng th sinh v rng nguyn sinh gn xp x 0,26% trong
thi gian quan trc 227 ngy. Tuy nhin khi cht ph rng cho mc ch s dng nng
nghip, dng chy tng ln 1 2% trong 1, 2 nm u v tng ln n 12% trn t c
khai ph s dng 12 nm. Nhng nghin cu trong vng nhit i a ra nhiu
kt qu c th tham kho, v d: Kt qu thc s ca vic ph rng l lm cho h s
dng chy trn sng tng ln, tng kh nng l qut, nh Philippines lt rt ln sau
bo v gi ma vo nhng nm 1980 l kt qu trc tip ca vic ph rng. Din tch
c kh nng gy l lt trn cc con sng n tng ln gp i, vo khong
800.000 km
2
, trong nhng nm gn y khi din tch rng ca t nc b cht ph
gp 5 ln.
Tm li, vai tr ca lp ph rng trong vic iu tit nc, ngn chn l lt
c khng nh, ngi ta c th iu tit dng chy nh nh l v thi gian bng
thit lp cc qun th rng vi cc loi cy la chn; ng thi nghin cu cc bin
php bo v rng, ci to rng theo hng sinh thi l iu cn tin hnh cc lnh
th c nguy c xy ra l lt.

47
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
3.2.3. ng dng AHP xc nh trng s cc YTTP
T kt qu nghin cu kho st, p dng nhng quy nh cho nhng vng c
a l, t nhin, kinh t x hi tng t vng nghin cu ca ti, xt tnh hnh ti
vng nghin cu, ti xc nh cc yu t tham gia nh hng n nguy c xy ra
l lt. i vi cc yu t nh hng n nguy c xy ra l lt c rt nhiu yu t nh:
Lng ma, dc, cao, loi t, dy tng t, thm thc ph,mt li sng,
mt dn c, iu kin kinh t - x hi Nhng do gii hn ca ti nn tc gi
ch s dng 5 yu t sau nghin cu:
X
1
dc;
X
2
Loi t;
X
3
Lng ma;
X
4
Thc ph;
X
5
Mt li sng;

Cc cu hi c t ra l X
1
c li hn, tho mn hn, ng gp nhiu hn,
vt hn, so vi X
2
, X
3
,...,X
n
bao nhiu ln?
Cc cu hi rt quan trng, n phi phn nh mi lin h gia cc thnh phn
ca mt mc vi tnh cht ca mc cao hn. Nu tiu chun l xc sut th
hi xc sut xy ra mt thnh phn ny hn thnh phn kia bao nhiu, hay
mt thnh phn ny s hu hay nh hng hay vt tri hn thnh phn kia
bao nhiu ln? tnh ton mc u tin gia cc ch tiu, gi s ta c X
n

ch tiu cn gi nh th mt ma trn c gi thuyt nh sau:

in vo ma trn trn, ngi ta dng thang nh gi t 1- 9 nh sau :

48
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Bng 3.2: Bng so snh cp thng minh ca Saaty
<< Km quan trng hn Quan trng hn>>
1/9 1/7 1/5 1/3 1 3 5 7 9
Km
quan
trng
hn
rt
rt
nhiu
Km
quan
trng
hn
rt
nhiu
Km
quan
trng
hn
nhiu
Km
quan
trng
hn
Quan
trng
bng
nhau
Quan
trng
hn
Quan
trng
hn
nhiu
Quan
trng
hn
rt
nhiu
Quan
trng
hn
rt
rt
nhiu
Ngun: M. Berrittella v cng s, 2007
Trong a
ij
l mc nh gi gia ch tiu th i so vi th j
a
ij
>0, a
ij
= 1/a
ji
, a
ii
= 1
Khi xy dng ch tiu a
ij
ta cn phi da vo cc chuyn gia giu kinh nghim,
nhng ngi nghin cu v vn trn. Nhm mc ch mang tnh khch quan gia
cc nhn t tham gia t trnh c sai lm khi chn la cc nhn t. AHP cho php
mu thun gia cc nhn t, nhng phi c gii hn mu thun trong kin ca
mi tp hp.
Gi w
ii
l trng s ca nhn t th i. w
ii
c tnh theo cng thc sau:
=
=
n
i
in
ii
ii
a
a
w
1

Khi ta c ma trn trng s sau
X
1
X
2
X
3
X
4
X
5
X
1
w
11
w
12
w
13
w
14
w
15
X
2
w
21
w
22
w
23
w
24
w
25
X
3
w
31
w
32
w
33
w
34
w
35
X4 w
41
w
42
w
43
w
44
w
45

X
5
w
51
w
52
w
53
w
54
w
55

Trong w
11
, w
22
, , w
55
l trng s tng ng ca nhn t X
1
, X
2
, , X
5
.

49
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Ma trn v kin ca cc chuyn gia c th c xc nh bng t s nht qun
(consistency ratio CR):

CI: ch s nht qun (Consistency Index)
RI: ch s ngu nhin (Random Index). RI c xc nh t bng cho
sn.

max
: gi tr ring ca ma trn so snh
n : s nhn t
|
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ + + + =

= = = = =
55
5
1
5
44
5
1
4
33
5
1
3
22
5
1
2
11
5
1
1
max
.
1
w
w
w
w
w
w
w
w
w
w
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n

Bng 3.3: Ch s ngu nhin ng vi s nhn t (RI)

Ngun: M. Berrittella v cng s, 2007
Phng php AHP do s nht qun thng qua t s nht qun (CR), gi tr ca
t s nht qun tt nht l nh hn 10%, nu ln hn, s nhn nh l ngu nhin, cn
c thc hin li.
Tm tt cc bc gii bi ton AHP
Bc 1: nh ngha vn v xc nh li gii yu cu.
Bc 2: To cu trc th bc t quan im qun l chung (t mc cao
nht cho ti mc m ti c th can thip gii quyt vn ).
Bc 3: Thit lp ma trn so snh cp ca s ng gp hay tc ng ca
yu t ln tiu chun ca mc th bc pha trn ca n. Mt na ca ma
trn so snh l s nghch o ca na kia. Yu t bn tay tri ca ma trn
s c so snh vi yu t hng trn cng ca ma trn.

50
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Bc 4: Thu thp kin hon tt ma trn so snh cp bc 3.
Bc 5: Tnh mc u tin ca tng yu t v th tnh nht qun.
Bc 6: Thc hin bc 3, 4, 5 cho tt c cc mc v cc nhm trong s
th bc.
Bc 7: Tnh ton tng hp cc trng s ca vector u tin ca cc tiu
chun, tnh tng ca tt c cc trng s tng ng vi mc thp hn v
tip tc nh vy. Kt qu l trng s u tin cho mc thp nht ca s
th bc. Nu c nhiu kt qu, c th tnh trung bnh.
Bc 8: T s nht qun phi nh hn hay bng 10%, nu ln hn, cn
thc hin li cc bc trn nhm gim thiu sai lm ti mc thp hn.

3.2.4. Xy dng bn phn cp v cho im s cc YTTP
Thang nh gi mc nguy c tai bin ni chung v l lt ni ring thng c
t nht 2 cp v nhiu nht l 7 cp . S lng cc cp ph thuc vo mc tiu nghin
cu, mc ti liu c th c, t l nghin cu. Thang nh gi mc nguy c
thng c din t theo mc tng ln nh sau: yu (nh, thp), trung bnh
(va), mnh (nng, cao), vi thang 3 cp: rt yu (rt nh, rt thp), yu (nh
thp), trung bnh (va), mnh (nng, cao), rt mnh (rt nng, rt cao) vi
thang 5 cp tng t nh vy [4].
Qua tm hiu, thng k phn tch nh gi cc ti liu c c v cn c vo s
phn ha thc t ca mi yu t to thnh nguy c l lt ti tin hnh phn chng
thnh 5 cp (Rt thp, Thp, Trung bnh, Cao, Rt cao) v tng ng vi thang im
s t 1 n 9. C th nh sau:
Xy dng bn phn cp dc
dc a hnh lu vc c ngha quan trng i vi qu trnh thot nc.
Lu vc c dc ln, khi ma nc theo cc sn dc thot nhanh xung sng
chnh, ngc li dc nh nc thot chm hn. dc a hnh lin quan cht ch
vi nguy c l lt xy ra. Cc sn c dc ln thng c nguy c xy ra l lt cao
hn.
Trong m hnh tnh ton, s thay i cao a hnh v hai hng x, y l thng
s xc nh hng sn v ln dc a hnh ti mt im. y xem gi tr

51
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
cao Z l mt hm s ca 2 ta (x, y), c th biu din z = f(x, y). Bn dc
c tnh trn c s m hnh cao DEM ca lu vc. Sau khi c c gi tr dc
a hnh ta tin hnh phn cp dc theo cc cp nh sau:

Bng 3.4: Phn cp gi tr dc theo mc nguy c xy ra l lt
STT dc () im s Mc nguy c
1 0
0
3
0
1 Rt thp
2 3
0
8
0
3 Thp
3 8
0
15
0
5 Trung Bnh
4 15
0
25
0
7 Cao
5 >25
0
9 Rt cao
Ngun: [4] [7]
Xy dng bn phn cp lng ma
Ma (bao gm cng , din phn b, thi gian ko di) c vai tr rt quan
trng trong hnh thnh l lt lu vc sng Kn. Ma ma lu vc sng Kn
thng bt u t thng IX XII chim khong 70 75% tng lng ma nm. Vo 4
thng ma ma lng ma trung bnh c th ln n 1200 1700 mm, lng ma ln
nht tp trung vo 2 thng X, XI chim ti 45 55% lng ma nm v vy l ln
thng xut hin vo 2 thng ny. Bn lng ma c xy dng da trn tnh
ton ni suy lng ma ti cc trm o ma trong khu vc nghin cu.

Bng 3.5: Phn cp gi tr lng ma theo mc nguy c xy ra l lt
STT Lng ma (mm) im s Mc nguy c
1 < 1.000 1 Rt thp
2 1.000 1.400 3 Thp

52
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
3 1.400 1.800 5 Trung Bnh
4 1.800 2.000 7 Cao
5 >2000 9 Rt cao
Ngun: [4], [7]
Xy dng bn phn cp thc ph
Rng l mt tp hp t nhin c con ngi s dng chng nhim, bo
v ngun nc, kh quyn t, thay i kh hu, t, a hnh v sinh vt. Do vy lp
ph rng c chc nng iu tit sinh thi, trong c iu tit dng chy. i vi lp
ph mt t hay lp ph thm thc vt tn che t ca thm thc vt ng vai tr
c bit quan trng trong iu tit l, lm tr l, gim xi mn, st l t, lm giu
cht hu c tng mt. Cc i tng lp ph chnh trong lu vc sng Kn bao gm:
- Rng t nhin (giu, trung bnh, ngho) - Nng ry
- Rng non, phc hi - Khu dn c
- Rng trng - Bi ct
- t trng (c, cy bi, cy g ri rc) - Ni
- t chuyn dng (ngha trang...) - Mt nc (ao, h, sng...)
- t nng nghip

Bng 3.6:Phn cp cc gi tr thc ph theo mc nguy c xy ra l lt
STT Lp ph im s Mc nguy c
1 Rng t nhin, ni 1 Rt thp
2 Rng non, phc hi 3 Thp
3
Khu dn c, t chuyn
dng
5 Trung Bnh
4 t Nng nghip, Nng ry 7 Cao
5 t trng, Bi ct 9 Rt cao
Ngun: [4][7]

53
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Xy dng bn phn cp loi t
t v thm thc vt c quan h mt thit vi nhau, cng ng vai tr c bit
quan trng trong iu tit l v c phn nh thng qua cc cnh quan. Tuy nhin,
khi nh gi ring v t, nhiu tnh cht t c quan h rt chc ch v phc tp vi
l nhng cnh quan cha phn nh ht. Nhng tnh cht v c im c bn ca t
l dy tng t, thnh phn c gii t, hm lng mn trong t, xi mn t,
chng c vn dng nh nhng du hiu ch th (hay ch tiu b sung) trong qu trnh
nh gi. T cc loi t a vo nh gi c nhm nh sau:

Bng 3.7:Bng phn cp loi t theo mc nguy c xy ra l lt
STT Cc loi t im s Mc nguy c
1 Cc,Ha 1 Rt thp
2 Fa, Fq, Fl 3 Thp
3 Fs, Fk, Fp, Ru, Fu 5 Trung Bnh
4 Rk, Pf, P 7 Cao
5
Ba, Xa, E ,Mn, M, Pb,Py,Pg,
D
9 Rt cao
Ngun: [4][7]
Xy dng bn phn cp mt li sng
D liu xy dng bn phn ct ngang l bn thy h, bn DEM.
Mt li sng trong lu vc D c tnh theo cng thc [6]:

Trong :
D: l mt li sng (n v: km/km
2
)
li: di nhnh sng i (n v: km)
A: din tch lu vc (n v: km
2
)

54
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
D ln nu trn lu vc c mt sng sui dy. D nh nu mt sng sui
tha.

Bng 3.8: Phn cp gi tr phn ct ngang theo mc nguy c xy ra l lt
STT Mt li sng (km/km
2
) im s Mc nguy c
1 0 0.5 1 Rt thp
2 0.5 1 3 Thp
3 1 2 5 Trung Bnh
4 2 3.5 7 Cao
5 > 3.5 9 Rt cao
Ngun: [4][7]
3.2.5. ng dng GIS nh gi tng hp cc YTTP
Xc nh c trng s cc yu t nghin cu v xy dng c cc lp thuc
tnh cho cc bn lng ma, t, dc, thc ph, phn ct ngang sau tin hnh
chng lp cc bn trn xc nh c im s vng c nguy c xy ra l lt.
im s ny th hin di phng trnh tuyn tnh sau:

= =
= + + + + =
i
n
j
n
j i
w M w M w M w M w M w M Y
1 1
55 5 44 4 33 3 22 2 11 1
* * * * * *
Trong :
Y: im s nguy c
M
i
: H s im phn cp ca tng yu t
W
j
: Trng s ca tng yu t
Sau khi chng lp cc bn xong ta c kt qu nh c gi tr ti a w
1
x
9
+
w
2
x
9
+ w
3
x
9
+ w
4
x
9
+w
5
x
9
v c mt cch phn cp ph bin nh sau:
Cp 1: t 0 n 1
Cp 2: t 1 n 3
Cp 3: t 3 n 5

55
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Cp 4: t 5 n 7
Cp 5:t 7 n 9

3.2.6. Cc k thut lin quan trong vic thnh lp bn phn vng nguy
c l lt
3.2.6.1. D liu thu thp
D liu thu thp phc v cho nghin cu c thu thp t cc ngun sau:
STT Loi d liu Ngun cung cp
1 Bn hnh chnh tnh Bnh nh
Phn vin Kh tng Thy vn v
Mi trng pha Nam.
2
Bn a hnh tnh Bnh nh
dng ng ng mc.
Phn vin Kh tng Thy vn v
Mi trng pha Nam.
3 Bn t tnh Bnh nh
Phn vin Kh tng Thy Vn v
Mi trng pha Nam.
4
Ta cc trm kh tng, trm o
ma v s liu quang trc lng
ma.
Mi trng pha Nam.
5
Bn loi rng v s dng t tnh
Bnh nh.
S Khoa hc v Cng ngh
Bnh nh.
6
Bn h thng sng sui tnh Bnh
nh.
Mi trng pha Nam.

3.2.6.2. Phn mm v cc Tools trong phn mm trong phn tch nh gi
Gii thiu v ArcGIS
ArcGIS l mt gi phn mm gn nh hon ho s dng trong GIS.
N c th gip chng ta hin th, qun l, chnh sa, phn tch d liu
mt cch n gin v nhanh chng.

56
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 3.2:Giao din ArcMap
Hin th d liu : n s gip chng ta xem cc d liu a l nh : cc d liu
nn, a hnh, bn a chnh, hin trng s dng t qua gip xc nh cc khu
vc, i tng cn thit gii quyt vn .
Chnh sa v cp nhp d liu : lm d liu c mi m, chng ta cn phi
cp nhp thng tin cho d liu theo s thay i ca chng v khng gian ln thi gian.
V d : vic chia ti sn cho cc con ci trong gia nh. Ngi cha mun chia t cho
cc con, khi tha t s c chia thnh nhiu tha t mi do chng ta cn cp
nhp thng tin li t tha gc cho cc tha mi c to ra v cp nhp thng tin ch
s hu mi. Hay s bin ng v t ai khi quy hoch cc khu th mi, khi cc
din tch t nng nghip s chuyn thnh t th
Gii quyt vn : gip chng ta gii quyt cc cu hi t ra nh : N nm
u ? Cn lng ma l bao nhiu ? C gn ng giao thng hay khng ? Din tch
bao nhiu l ?... Hiu c mi quan h gia chng s gip chng ta ra quyt nh
tt hn.
Kt xut bn : S gip cho ngi khng chuyn hiu c cc i tng trn
bn c ngha g .

57
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Pht trin cng c theo ngi dng : Trong ArcGIS cho php ngi s dng t
to ra cc Menu, Tool theo mun, hay c th to cc cng c ch phc v cho c
quan, t chc ca mnh v cng c th to ra cc cng c t ng chy trong qu trnh
lm vic m khng cn thao tc ca ngi s dng.
Cc loi d liu trong ArcGIS
- File Geodatabase v Personal Geodatabase
Geodatabase l nh dng chun ca ESRI, n dng lu tr tt c cc
d liu theo chun ca ESRI. nh dng ny tng ng nh mt Folder trong
Computer. Trong Geodatabase cha cc dng d liu nh : Features dataset,
Features class, table. Kch thc ca Geodatabase v tn ca cc files cha
trong Geodatabase:
Kch thc ca Table hay Feature class mc nh l 1 TeraByte nhng
c th hn.
S lng Feature class hay table l 2147483647.
S trng thuc tnh trong mt Feature class hay table l 65534.
S i tng thuc tnh (row) trong mt feature class hay table l
4294967295.
di tn ca Feature class hay table l 160 k t.
Trong mt geodatabase c th cha nhiu i tng c h qui chiu khc
nhau.
- Feature Dataset
Tng t nh Geodatabase nhng trong mt Feature dataset cc lp phi
cng h qui chiu, c ngha l nhn h qui chiu ca Feature class lm h qui
chiu cho n. Cc feature class ch cha cc lp d liu dng im, ng hay
vng m khng cha cc d liu dng bng.
- Feature class
L mt lp d liu cha trong Geodatabase hay Feature Dataset v nhp
h qui chiu ca Feature Dataset lm h qui chiu ca n. Cn trong trng
hp lu trong Geodatabase th phi ci t h qui chiu cho n.

58
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
- Shapefile
Shapefile l mt nh dng n, nontopological lu tr v tr a l v
thng tin thuc tnh ca cc i tng . Mt shapefile l mt trong nhng
nh dng c th bin tp v chnh sa trong ArcGIS v thng bao gm t
nht ba nh dng m rng:
*.shp: File chnh lu tr cc i tng a l
*.shx: Lu tr v tr i tng theo trng IDs trong file shp
*.dbf: Lu tr thng tin thuc tnh ca cc i tng.
*.sbn v *.sbx: Lu tr danh mc khng gian ca cc i tng.
*.prj: Lu tr thng tin v h ta
*.xml: Lu tr thng tin ca d liu.
Cc tools ca phn mm ArcGIS c dng:
Analysis Tools: Cng c ny cung cp mt b cc cng c mnh m
thc hin cc phng thc x l d liu khc nhau ca tt c cc d liu
vector. Ngi dng c th thc hin chng lp (overlay), to vng m,
tnh ton thng k v nhiu hn na. Trong cng c ny ti dng
ct khu vc nghin cu bng d liu vector, v thng k din tch theo
mt trng thuc tnh no .
3D Analyst Tools: Cng c ny c dng xy dng cc yu t a
hnh nh m hnh s cao (DEM) di dng raster v TIN, ng bnh
, bn dc, m hnh cao vi bng ca a vt. Ngoi ra, chng
ta cng s dng ArcScene hin th DEM dng TIN. i vi ti
ny ti s dng 3D Analyst Tools x l d liu a hnh v ni suy kt
qu lng ma cho ra bn dc v bn lng ma.
Spatial Analyst Tools: vi cng c ny ngi dng c th gii mt cch
hiu qu v nhanh chng chnh xc cc bi ton khng gian. Spatial
Analyst Tools cn c hu ht cc cng c ca 3D Analyst Tools. Trong
cng c ny ti p dng phn lp bn raster, ct bn raster,
chuyn i t d liu vector sang d liu raster v ngc li. c bit
cng ny c s dng chng lp nh gi tng hp cc bn YTTP
ca ti.

59
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Data Management Tools: Trong cng c ny c rt nhiu chc nng khc
nhau nhng ti ch p dng cng c ny cho vic khai bo, chnh h ta
cho cc bn nghin cu.
Conversion Tools: Cng c ny dng chuyn i gia cc nh dng
d liu khc nhau nh chuyn d liu raster dng vector v ngc li,
chuyn i cc d liu ca CAD, Microstation sang d liu vector.
Trong cng c ny ti dng chuyn d liu t d liu table s dng
trn MapInfo sang nh dng shapefile.
ArcHydro Tools: cng c ny c s dng biu din m t cc m
hnh thot nc ca lu vc. Phn tch raster c thc hin to ra d
liu trn cc hng dng chy, nh ngha dng chy, tch t dng chy,
v phn nh lu vc sng. Nhng d liu ny c dng cho ra mt
d liu vector v mng li thot nc ca lu vc. cng c ny ti s
dng xy dng bn cc tiu lu vc trn lu vc sng ln t xc
nh mt li sng ca lu vc da trn tng chiu di dng chy trn
tiu lu vc .

3.2.6.3. X l d liu cc bn
X l d liu a hnh
D liu a hnh th hin bng bn s m hnh cao (DEM Digital
Elevation Model) (Borrough, 1986). DEM l mt m hnh s biu din s bin thin
cao lin tc trn mt vng khng gian ca tri t. M hnh ny c lu tr, phn
tch v th hin trn my tnh bng h thng GIS.
D liu DEM c th lu tr v biu din bng 2 loi phng php ch yu:
Phng php ton hc hay phng php hnh nh. D liu DEM trong ti kha lun
ny c biu din bng phng php hnh nh, c xy dng trn cu trc m hnh
ma trn cao. Trong m hnh ma trn cao, mi li ca ma trn s mang mt
gi tr cao trung bnh ca vng a hnh m loi i din.
- Quy trnh x l d liu a hnh
Quy trnh x l d liu a hnh c tin hnh nh sau:

60
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 3.3: Quy trnh x l d liu a hnh

X l d liu lng ma
Bn lng ma c xy dng da trn phng php ni suy cc gi tr
lng ma o c ti cc trm o ma trong khu vc nghin cu v cc khu vc ln
cn.
- Phng php ni suy:
Ni suy l qu trnh d bo cc gi tr cha bit t cc im bit t cc im
ln cn. tng ch o ng sau qu trnh ni suy khng gian l nhng im c
xc nh gn nhau trong khng gian thng c nhng gi tr gn bng nhau. Phng
php ni suy c chia thnh 3 nhm chnh: Ni suy cc b, hi qui a thc, Kriging.
Ni suy cc b: ch tnh n nhng im quan st ln cn, bao gm cc
phng php: vng Thiessen, ni suy tuyn tnh, hm Spline v trung bnh
trng s.
Vng Thiessen (ni suy theo im gn nht): Thng s tt nht v tnh
cht ca mt im c th c rt ra t im quan st gn nht. Vng nh
hng (vng Thiessen) c gii hn xung quanh mi im quan st, mi
im ri vo bn trong vng nh hng no th c cng gi tr vi vng
. Vng Thiessen c xy dng xung quanh tp hp cc im sao cho
ranh gii vng cch u im ln cn. Phng php ny c dng
phn tch kh hu nh d liu ma. Trn c s cc d liu cc trm kh

61
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
tng th hin bng d liu im, vng Thiessen c to ra xung
quanh mi im (trm kh tng) v gi tr ma c ch nh cho mi
vng. Hn ch chnh ca phng php ny l vng Thiessen coi nhng
im gn tng t nh nhng im xa. Nu tp hp im quan st tha
tht v cch xa nhau th s to nn nhng vng ln c gi tr bng nhau
nhng thc t c s khc bit gia im quan st v cc im gn ng
bao.
D liu im Vng Thiessen

Hnh 3.4: Cc vng Thiessen
Ni suy tuyn tnh: Mt trong nhng phng php n gin nht c
tnh gi tr cha bit l ni suy tuyn tnh. Gi thit rng c mi quan h
tuyn tnh gia chnh lch gi tr v khong cch ca hai im (Demers,
1997).
Ni suy tuyn tnh Ni suy theo hm Spline

Hnh 3.5:Ni suy tuyn tnh v theo hm Spline
Hm Spline: Trn thc t, rt him b mt thay i tuyn tnh, phng
trnh ton hc c s dng m t b mt khp nht thng qua tp hp
cc im quan st xung quanh im cha bit (im ni suy). Khi b mt
khp nht c m t thng qua phng trnh tuyn tnh, n ng dng vi

62
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
ni suy tuyn tnh, cui cng kt qu cho hm ton hc dng d on
cc im cha bit bit, thng thng cc hm ton hc dng m t cc
mt cong (Bernhardsen, 1999). Ni suy Spline ph hp cho nhng vng
nh c b mt bin i khng qu phc tp.
Trung bnh trng s: Gi tr d on c rt ra t tp hp cc im quan
st nm trong bn knh cho trc k t im cha bit. Khong cch c
dng xc nh trng s, phng php ny gi l trng s trung bnh
ng, trng s t l nghch vi khonh cch nn im quan st gn vi
im cha bit c nhiu kh nng nhn gi tr tng ng hn l cc
im xa (Jones, 1997).

Trong :
Z(x): Gi tr d on ti im x
Z(x
i
): Gi tr quan st ti im x
i
d
i
: Khong cch t im x
i
n x

Hnh 3.6: Trung bnh trng s

Hi qui a thc:
Mt tp hp c dng tm ra biu thc ton hc din t b mt hon chnh
(s dng phng php bnh phng nh nht). Kt qu cho ra mt phng trnh ton
hc c th dng d on cc gi tr cha bit (Burrough, 1986).
=
=
=
n
i
i
n
i
i i
d
d x Z
x Z
1
2
1
2
/ 1
/ ) (
) (

63
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 3.7:Hi quy a thc
Kriging:
L phng php ni suy kt hp gia hi quy a thc v trung bnh trng s.
Trong , hi qui a thc tm ra phng trnh ton hc din t xu hng tng qut ca
b mt nhng khng tnh n tnh cht cc b, phng php trung bnh trng s
tnh s bin thin cc b (trng s c tnh bi xu hng ca lch gia ng
cong b mt v cc im quan st).

Hnh 3.8:K thut ni suy Kriging

() ()
()
(Jones, 1997)

64
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Trong :
Z(x): Gi tr cha bit
m(x): Xu hng ton cc
e(x): S bin thin cc b
e: Sai s phi khng gian
Kriging l phng php cho kt qu tt nht, vi s lng im v s phn b
cc im o ma c c ca khu vc nghin cu. Do tin hnh ni suy lng ma
bng phng php Kriging vi qui trnh nh sau:

Hnh 3.9: Qui trnh x l d liu lng ma
X l d liu mt li sng
c c mt li sng trn lu vc chng ta phi dng n bn DEM,
bn thy vn khu vc nghin cu. Tin trnh x l cho ra bn h thng tiu lu
vc c thc hin trn ArcHydro Tools trong phn mm ArcGIS. Sau ly tng
chiu di cc nhnh sng trong cc tiu lu vc chia cho din tch tiu lu vc ta c
c mt li sng. S tin trnh nh sau:

Hnh 3.10: Qui trnh x l d liu mt li sng

65
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
X l d liu thc ph
D liu thc ph thu thp c trn phm vi ton tnh nn vic cn thit phi
ly ra c KVNC l cn thit. Cc bc tin hnh nh sau:

Hnh 3.11: Qui trnh x l d liu thc ph

X l d liu loi t
Khi d liu ca khu vc nghin cu kh nh hn so vi d liu thu thp c
chng ta nn tin hnh chn d liu ph hp vi KVNC nh th s tit kim hn v
n gin hn trong phn tch.
S tin trnh:

Hnh 3.12: Qui trnh x l d liu loi t

66
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
3.2.7. Qui trnh xy dng bn phn vng nguy c l lt

67
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Thuyt minh s :
T cc d liu thu thp c bao gm: bn loi t, bn a hnh, bn
lng ma, bn thc ph, bn thy h, ta tin hnh xy dng cc bn thnh
phn v xc nh trng s cc YTTP bng phng php AHP v phn tch cc bn
ng thnh phn bng cc thut ton, k thut trng GIS. Tng hp, nh gi cc bn
thnh phn ta c c bn phn vng nguy c l lt.

68
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

CHNG 4
KT QU NGHIN CU
4.1. Xy dng trng s cho YTTP nghin cu
Cc YTTP nh hng n s hnh thnh l lt c vai tr v tm quan trng
khc nhau, v th vn cc k quan trng l nh gi ng tm quan trng khc nhau
v chn nhng nhn t c tm quan trng hng u. Vic nh gi mt cch nh
lng tm quan trng ca cc nhn t khc nhau trong tp hp cc nhn t nh hng
n l lt thng thng qua vic xc nh trng s cc nhn t, da vo thng k kt
qu phn tch thnh phn kin trc ca cc nhn t v vo nhn thc ca chuyn gia.
Qua thm d kin chuyn gia, cc ti, bi bo khoa hc v lnh vc hn
hn, l lt v cc vn lin quan n l lt kt hp vi kin ch quan ca c nhn.
Theo phng php ca Saaty ti xy dng ma trn so snh cp tnh trng s ph
hp phn nh vai tr ca cc nhn t hnh thnh nguy c l lt nh bng sau:

Bng4.1: kin chuyn gia

dc Loi t Lng ma Thc ph
Mt
li sng
dc 1 7 3 7 5
Loi t 1/7 1 1/5 1 1
Lng ma 1/3 5 1 5 3
Thc ph 1/7 1 1/5 1 1
Mt li sng 1/5 1 1/3 1 1

Gii thch:
dc quan trng hn rt nhiu so vi loi t.
dc quan trng hn lng ma.
dc quan trng hn rt nhiu so vi thc ph.
dc quan trng hn nhiu so vi mt li sng.

69
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Loi t km quan trng hn nhiu so vi lng ma.
Loi t v thc ph quan trng bng nhau.
Loi t v mt li sng quan trng bng nhau.
Lng ma quan trng hn nhiu so vi thc ph.
Lng ma quan trng hn mt li sng.
Thc ph v mt li sng quan trng bng nhau.
Sau khi xy dng xong bn kin chuyn gia tin hnh xy dng trng s cc
nhn t nh hng n l lt.

Bng 4.2: Ma trn so snh gia cc nhn t
Nhn t dc Loi t Lng ma Thc ph
Mt
li sng
dc 0,054 0,467 0,634 0,467 0,455
Loi t 0,008 0,067 0,042 0,067 0,091
Lng ma 0,011 0,333 0,211 0,333 0,273
Thc ph 0,917 0,067 0,042 0,067 0,091
Mt li sng 0,011 0,067 0,070 0,067 0,091

Da vo ma trn so snh tin hnh xc nh trng s ca cc nhn t. Thng
qua trng s, chng ta s bit c mc quan trng ca tng nhn t nh hng
nh th no n vn nghin cu.
Bng 4.3: Trng s cc nhn t
Nhn t Trng s
dc 0,515
Loi t 0,055
Lng ma 0,264
Thc ph 0,087
Mt li sng 0,079
Qua kt qu tnh ton trng s trn ta nhn thy: Trong cc nhn t trn th
nhn t dc nh hng n nguy c xy ra l lt nhiu nht (50,15%), sau n

70
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
lng ma (20,64%), thc ph (8,7%), mt li sng (7,9%) v loi t (5,5%).
Nh vy vai tr ca dc nh hng n l lt rt ln.
Khi xc nh trng s ca cc nhn t thch nghi, tin hnh xc nh cc thng
s ca ma trn so snh nhm mc ch xc nh chnh xc ca bng kin chuyn
gia.

Bng 4.4: Cc thng s ca AHP
Thng s Gi tr
Gi tr ring ca ma trn (
max
) 6,559
S nhn t (n) 5
Ch s nht qun (CI) 0,390
Ch s ngu nhin (RI) 1,12
T s nht qun (CR) 0,02

V CR = 0,02 < 0.1 nn cc trng s ny c chp nhn. V vy chng ta c
th tin hnh xy dng bn phn vng nguy c l lt cho khu vc nghin cu.
Khi xc nh trng s cc nhn t nh hng n l lt, tin hnh xy dng
phng trnh tng qut im s cc nhn t thng qua trng s cu tng nhn t c
th.
Phng trnh tng qut c dng:
5 4 3 2 1
* 079 . 0 * 087 . 0 * 264 . 0 * 055 . 0 * 515 . 0 X X X X X Y

4.2. Xy dng bn cc YTTP gy ra l lt
4.2.1. Bn loi t
Trn c s tham kho cc ngun ti liu v loi t ca khu vc nghin cu,
chng ti tin hnh xy dng bn loi t cho khu vc nghin cu. Lu vc sng
Kn c cc loi t sau:

71
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Bng 4.5: Cc loi t chnh lu vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh.
STT K hiu Tn t Din tch(ha) T l (%)
1 Ba t xm bc mu trn macma axt 12.530,00 4,67
2 Cc t cn ct (trng + vng) 452,76 0,17
3 D t dc t 4.710,97 1,75
4 E t xi mn tr si 1.066,26 0,40
5 Fa t vng trn macma axt 139.992,53 52,14
6 Fk t nu trn bazan 9.840,07 3,67
7 Fl t gley 18,24 0,01
8 Fp t nu vng trn ph sa c 2.433,94 0,91
9 Fq t vng nht trn ct 137,13 0,05
10 Fs t vng trn st 12.810,00 4,77
11 Fu t nu vng trn bazan 2.712,74 1,01
12 Ha t mn vng trn macma axt 1.813,44 0,68
13 M t mn 1.324,13 0,49
14 Mn t mn s vt c 346,04 0,13
15 P t ph sa khng c bi 29.150,00 10,86
16 Pb t ph sa c bi 15.110,00 5,63
17 Pf t ph sa c tng loan l vng 1.658,79 0,62
18 Pg t ph sa b gley 6.557,37 2,44
19 Py t ph sa ngoi sui 971,43 0,36
20 Rk t en trn bazan 68,57 0,03
21 Ru t nu thm trn bt v bazan 260,74 0,10
22 Xa t xm trn macma axt 24.490,00 9,12
Tng 269.000 100

72
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.1: Bn loi t

73
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Nhn xt:
T kt qu thng k c c ta thy t vng macma acid (Fa) chim phn
ln din tch lu vc sng Kn (52,14%) bn cnh t ph sa khng c bi
(10,86%) v t xm trn macma acid (9,12%) chim phn ln din tch so vi cc
loi t cn li trn lu vc.
c im ca nhm t vng macma acid c mi trng t chua, pH
tng mt t 45; hm lng mn t ngho n trung bnh, vi thnh phn c gii ca
t tht nh n trung bnh, thm v gi nc tt. Bn cnh nhc im ln nht
ca loi t ny l tng t mn mng v a hnh dc nn d tr m khng cao,
tim nng xi mn thoi ha ln.Khi b thoi ha s cung cp cho dng chy nhiu sn
thch anh bn sau phong ha. Cc sn ny c th to cc bi bi lm tt nghn dng
chy hoc vi lp t canh tc mu m y cng l nguyn nhn ln gy ra nhng trn
l lt trn lu vc sng Kn hng nm.

4.2.2. Bn thc ph

Bng 4.6: Din tch cc loi thc ph
STT Thc ph Din tch (ha) T l (%)
1 Bi ct 21,57 0,01
2 t nng nghip 65.729,30 26,38
3 t chuyn dng 599,84 0,24
4
t trng (c, cy bi, cy g ri
rc)
60.525,36 24,29
5 Khu dn c 1.247,50 0,50
6 Mt nc 3.534,07 1,42
7 Ni 1.735,29 0,70

74
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
8 Nng ry 8.141,88 3,27
9 Rng non, phc hi 46.814,52 18,79
10 Rng trng 12.740,50 5,11
11 Rng t nhin giu 6.203,26 2,49
12 Rng t nhin ngho 14.267,44 5,73
13 Rng t nhin trung bnh 27.578,86 11,07
Tng 269.000 100

75
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.2: Bn thc ph

76
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Nhn xt:
Da vo kt qu tnh ton c v bn ta thy thc ph ca lu vc sng
Kn a phn l t nng nghip (26,38%), t trng (24,29%), rng non phc hi
(18,79%), rng t nhin trung bnh (11,07%). V cc loi thc ph chim a s trn
lu vc l t nng nghip, t trng, rng non phc hi, rng t nhin trung bnh nn
nguy c xy ra l lt cao nu lng ma ln v dc ca a hnh cao.

4.2.3. Bn lng ma

77
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.3: Bn lng ma

78
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Nhn xt:
Ta thy rng lng ma khu vc ny kh ln nu b tc ng bi nhiu iu
kin thun li lng ma ny c th gy ra l lt trn phm vi rng.

4.2.4. Bn dc

Bng 4.7: Din tch cc cp c
STT dc () Din tch (ha) T l (%)
1 0
0
- 3
0
162.108 65,14
2 3
0
- 8
0
17.163,22 6,90
3 8
0
- 15
0
15.507,88 6,23
4 15
0
- 25
0
27.337,25 10,99
5 > 25
0
26.728,72 10,74
Tng 269.000 100

79
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.4: Bn dc

80
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Nhn xt:
Theo tng quan khu vc nghin cu lu vc sng Kn phn thng lu lu vc
a phn l ni cao, c dc kh ln lp ph thc vt t, phn h lu b chia ct bi cc
ni st thp v lan ra tn bin nn vng chu th khng ng nht, trong c phn
ng bng hay b ngp lt do tiu thot nc khng kp. y l nguyn nhn khin
cho lu vc sng Kn lun b l lt cc nm.

4.2.5. Bn mt li sng

81
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.5: Bn mt li sng

82
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Nhn xt:
Mng li sng ngi c nh hng rt ln n vic hnh thnh dng chy v
c im dng chy v l lt lu vc. Vi a hnh kh phc tp v c dc ln nn
mt li sng lu vc sng Kn cng kh phc tp.Mt li sng cao cng c
ngha l mt h thng nhnh sng ln.Vi nhng khu vc c mt li sng cao th
cng ng ngha khu vc c nguy c xy ra l lt ln.

4.3. Thnh lp bn phn vng nguy c xy ra l lt lu vc sng Kn
Chng lp cc bn YTTP:

Hnh 4.6: M t chng lp cc bn YTTP

83
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.7: Bn gi tr nguy c chy trn m hnh

84
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
T kt qu chy ra trn m hnh ta c c thang im t 1.6 n 8, tin hnh
phn thnh cc cp nguy c v s dng cc thng k thc t kim chng v phn
thnh cc mc nguy c tng ng:
Nguy c thp: 1.6 n 3
Nguy c trung bnh: 3 n 5
Nguy c cao: 5 n 7
Nguy c rt cao: 7 n 9

85
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

Hnh 4.8: Bn phn vng nguy c l lt lu vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh

86
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
4.4. Nhn xt chung
Cc bn YTTP c xy dng trn phng php phn tch tng hp s dng
cc php ton giao v hp. to ra cc bng phn cp cho tng YTTP ta s dng
phng php phn cp v cho im da trn cc ngun ti liu tham kho, im s
phn cp cho tng YTTP c cho theo cp bc s l 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 trong gi tr 9 c
nguy c nh hng n kh nng xy ra l lt rt cao, 7 (Cao), 5 (Trung bnh),
3(Thp), 1(Rt thp).
S dng phng php AHP tnh trng s cc YTTP c c 0.515, 0.055,
0.264, 0.087, 0.079 ln lt ca dc, loi t, lng ma, thc ph, mt li
sng. Vi cc gi tr u vo ta c c t s nht qun CR l 0.02 iu ny c ngha
tnh nht qun trong vic so snh cc cp YTTP c m bo.
Trong kt qu nghin ny ta thy nguy c l lt rt cao xy ra cc vng i
ni pha Bc huyn Vnh Thnh v vng i ni Huyn Vn Canh, nguy c l lt cao
cc vng g i ni chuyn tip gia vng i ni v ng bng ca lu vc nh cc
huyn Ty Sn, Ph Ct, Vnh Thnh, nguy c l lt trung bnh cc vng pha Ty
Bc huyn Vnh Thnh, nguy c l lt thp cc vng thng lu ca lu vc nh
Ph ct, An Nhn, Tuy Phc.
T tnh hnh thc t l lt lu vc sng Kn t nm 2002 n 2007 cho thy
lu vc sng Kn hu nh mi nm u xy ra nhng trn l lt trn phm vi ln. c
bit l phn thng lu sng Kn hng nm lun phi phi gnh chu nhng trn l lt
khi c ma ln din ra vi din bin trin min t u ma ma (thng IX) n cui
ma ma (thng XII). Vi cc YTTP gy nh hng n ma trn ta thy dc l
yu t nh hng rt ln n nguy c l lt xy ra, vi a hnh lu vc sng Kn a
phn l i ni th nguy c xy ra cng ln nu cc loi thc ph khng c phn b
mt cch hp l v loi t ngy cng thoi ha do qu trnh trng trt, khai thc
khng hp l. V vy vic nh gi tng hp v xy dng bn phn vng nguy c
l lt lu vc sng Kn l rt cn thit cho vic gim st, c ci nhn tng qut v
nguy c l lt s xy ra trong tng lai nu khng c bin php hn ch v d bo.

87
SVTH: Trn Th Thng

CHNG 5
KT LUN V KIN NGH
5.1. Kt lun
Vi mc tiu ca kha lun l xy dng bn phn vng nguy c l lt nhm
d bo kh nng xy ra l lt trong tng lai, tc gi xy dng thnh cng bn
phn vng nguy c l lt lu vc sng Kn tnh Bnh nh v ch r mc nguy
c ti tng vng c th.
V phng php ng dng GIS, ta thy y l mt phng php c nhiu u
im bi cc c tnh ca n d xy dng, hiu chnh, cp nhp d liu to ra kt
qu mi, cc trnh by a dng, d s dng cho c nhng ngi khng thuc chuyn
mn ny.
C th ni, vi phng php ny ta c th xy dng c mt h thng ring
cho vic d bo nhiu loi tai bin m ch cn thay i cc lp d liu u vo ph
hp vi tng loi tai bin l c th c c kt qu d bo cho mi loi bin.

5.2. Kin ngh
L lt l mt mi nguy him rt ln, gy ra nhiu thit hi ln v ngi v ca
hng nm i vi nhng vng ng bng Min Trung. V vy cng tc d bo l lt
phi ngy c quan tm v nng cao chnh xc nhm gim ti a thit hi v
ngi v ca cho ngi dn cng nh hn ch s tn ph mi trng sinh thi trong
tng lai.
Trong qu trnh thc hin kha lun ny tc gi gp nhiu kh khn v thng
tin khu vc nghin cu, d liu lng ma. v quan trng l kin cc chuyn gia
v vn ny nn v vy cn phi tng cng mt lc lng cn b c chuyn
mn, tng cng u t khoa hc k thut khc phc nhng hn ch trn.
Da trn kt qu t c ca ti ta thy cc mc nguy c trn lu vc
nghin cu l kh nhiu. V vy cn phi nhanh chng khc phc cc yu t c th ti
to c, xy dng cc cng trnh phng chng v a ra nhng phng n cnh bo

88
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
nhanh chng n ngi dn vng ang gp nguy him. i vi nhng ni c mc
nguy c thp cn phi duy tr cc iu kin ny.
Ngoi ra cn phi thng xuyn cp nhp d liu nm bt thng tin nguy c mt
cch nhanh chng v ph hp cho tng khu vc v tng thi im.

Ti liu tham kho GVHD: PGS.TS. Nguyn K Phng
89
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
TI LIU THAM KHO

Ti liu ting Vit
[1] TS. Nguyn Kim Li, 2007. H thng thng tin a l, Nh xut bn Nng
nghip. Trang 12 13.
[2] ThS. L Anh Tun, Phng chng thin tai, Trang 23.
[3] Website gii thiu v l lt ca trung tm kh tng thy vn quc gia. Truy cp
ngy 20 thng 6 nm 2011.
http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/vi-VN/43/Default.aspx
[4] Nguyn Trng Ym, 2008. Nghin cu xy dng bn phn vng tai bin mi
trng t nhin lnh th Vit Nam, chng trnh KC-08, Vin a cht, Vin Khoa
hc v Cng ngh Vit Nam. 166 trang.
[5] Phn vin Kh tng thy vn v mi trng pha Nam. Bo co tng hp Sng
Kn. 95 trang.
[6] A.M. Berliant, 2004. Phng php nghin cu bng bn (Hong Phng Nga
Nh Th Xun dch, hiu nh: Nguyn Th Ct Lng Lng). Nh xut bn i
hc Quc gia H Ni, trang 40 41.
[7] PGS. TSKH. Nguyn Vn C, 2003. Nghin cu lun c khoa hc cho cc gii
php phng trnh, hn ch hu qu l lt lu vc sng Ba. 448 trang.
[8] Nguyn T Dn, 1995. ng dng phng php vin thm v h thng thng tin
a l nghin cu hin trng b mt v v xy dng c s d liu a hnh Cn o.
68 Trang.
[9] Website gii thiu v a ch Bnh nh. Truy cp ngy 12 thng 6 nm 2011.
http://www.dostbinhdinh.org.vn/diachibd/tndchc/thiennhien_dancu_hanhchinh.htm
[10] VidaGIS. ng dng ca GIS trong cc ngnh.
http://www.vidagis.com/home/

Ti liu tham kho GVHD: PGS.TS. Nguyn K Phng
90
SVTH: Trn Th Thng
Ti liu ting Anh
[11] Sani Yahaya, 2004. Multicriteria analysis for flood vulnerable areas in
hadejia-jamaare river basin, Nigeria, Faculty of Engineering Geomatics Engineering
Unit University Putra Malaysia (UPM) 43400, Serdang Selangor, Malaysia. 5 pages.
[12] P. Pramojanee, C. Tanavud, C. Yongchalermchai, C.Navanugraha. An
Application of GIS for Mapping of Flood Hazard and Risk Area in Nakorn Sri
Thammarat Province, South of Thailand. 8 pages.
[13] Website Analytic Hierarchy Process. Reference on June 20, 2011
http://www.decisionlens.com/index.php
[14] M. Berrittella, A. Certa, M. Enea and P. Zito, 01/2007. An Analytic Hierarchy
Process for The Evaluation of Transport Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts.
20 pages.
[15] G.Venkata Bapalu, Rajiv Sinha, GIS in Flood Hazard Mapping: a case study of
Kosi River Basin, India. 6 Trang.
[16] ESRI, 2008. ArcGis Desktop Tutorials. Arc Hydro, ArcGis 9.3
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