.

, 2010.

:
.
:
.
:

, 32
www.singidunum.ac.rs
:
.
:

:

:
2010.
:
1150
:

ISBN 978-86-7912-241-4

, . .

,
.

.
, ,
,
.
,
, ,
.

, .

,

, , .

, 2010. .

III

III

1.
1.1.
1.2.

1
1
2

2.
2.1.
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
2.6.
2.6.1.
2.6.2.

4
4
5
6
7
11
12
13
16

3.
3.1.
3.1.1.
3.1.2.
3.1.3.
3.1.4.
3.1.4.1.
3.1.4.2.
3.1.4.3.
3.2.
3.2.1.
3.2.1.1.
3.2.1.2.
3.2.1.3.
3.2.1.4.
3.2.2.
3.2.2.1.
3.2.2.2.
3.2.2.3.
3.2.2.4.

20
20
22
26
29
35
35
37
43
51
51
52
55
56
57
60
60
62
63
63

 3.2.2.5.
3.3.
3.3.1.
3.3.2.
3.3.3.

64
65
66
66
70

4.
4.1
4.1.1.
4.1.2. ()
4.1.3.
4.1.3.1.
4.1.3.2.
4.1.4.
4.1.4.1.
4.1.4.2.
4.1.5.
4.1.6.
4.1.7. ()
4.1.7.1.
4.1.7.2.
4.1.8.
4.1.8.1.
4.1.8.2.
4.2.
4.2.1.
4.2.1.1.
4.2.2.
4.2.2.1.
4.2.2.2.
4.3.
4.3.1.
4.3.1.1.
4.3.1.2.
4.3.1.3.
4.3.2.
4.3.3.

73
74
76
77
79
79
80
83
83
84
86
87
89
89
91
97
97
100
109
112
113
116
116
119
122
124
124
126
129
135

5.
5.1.
5.2.

138
138
139

VI

136

5.3.
5.4.
5.4.1.
5.4.2.
5.4.3.
5.4.4.
5.4.5.
5.5.
5.5.1.
5.5.1.1.
5.5.2.
5.5.2.1.
5.6.
5.7.
5.8.
5.8.1.
6.
6.1.
6.2.
6.3.
6.3.1.

6.4.

6.5.
6.5.1.
6.5.2.
6.5.3.
6.5.3.1.


6.5.3.2.

6.5.4. t
6.5.4.1.


6.5.4.2.

6.5.5. -
(F )
VII

140
142
142
143
144
145
147
148
148
151
155
157
162
166
169
173
178
180
184
187
188
194
198
199
200
204

204
211
220

220
226
231

6.5.5.1.
6.5.5.2.
6.5.6. X2
6.5.6.1.
6.5.6.2.
7.
7.1.
7.1.1.
7.1.2.
7.2.
7.2.1.
7.2.2.
7.2.3.

232
250
265
266
269
274
274
276
277
278
278
283
289
293
326

VIII

1.

1.1.

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:

k = 1 + 3, 3log N
x xmin
i = max
k
k
N
i()

xmax ;

xmin

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:

x0 = xmin

x0
xmin
i


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xi; i=1,2,3,n; fi; i=1,2,3,,n.
n

f ;
i =1

(fi)
n

( f )100.
i

i =1

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B:

20

15

35

48

17

38

39

19

20

40

46

28

35

41

17

19

38

39

31

42

29

10

16

30

42

50

42

25

19

)
)
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:
)

k = 1 + 3,3log 32
k
k
k
k

= 1 + 3,3 1,50515
= 1 + 4,96699
= 5,96699
6

xmax xmin
k
50 5
i=

5,96699
i = 7,54
i 8
i=

i
2
7,54
x0 = 5

2
x0 = 1, 23
x0 = xmin

x0 1

6.(
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xmin=5.i8;
x0=1;
k; i;X0
.1.

1.

f i
xi
k
k
%
%
xi
19
5
3
32
9,38
9,38
3
1018
14
8
29
15,62
25,00
5
1927
23
14
24
18,75
43,75
6
2836
32
20
18
18,75
62,5
6
3745
41
29
12
28,13
90,62
9
4654
50
32
3
9,37
100.00
3

= 32

100,00

: 1 + 9 = 5 ; 10 + 18 = 14 .
2
2

)(k)3;3+5=8;8+6=14;.

(k)32;323=29;295=24;.

): f i 100

: 3 100 = 9,38%

32
: 5 100 = 15, 62% .
32
: k 100
fi

: 3 100 = 9,38%

32
: 8 100 = 25% .
32

10

2.5


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(fi)

10
8
6
4
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5

14

23

32

41

50

(xi)

(1.)

(k)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5

14

23

32

41

50

(xi)

(1.)

(k)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5

14

23

32

41

50

(xi)

14

.

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:
3
2000.2007..:
4.,,2000.2007.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

760 830 890 910 980 870 780 850

1520 1410 1320 1390 1510 1620 1690 1710

2200 2390 2940 2420 2360 2620 2490 2180

.
5.

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

y1
760
830
890
910
980
870
780
850

y2
1520
1410
1320
1390
1510
1620
1690
1710

y3
2200
2390
2940
2420
2360
2620
2490
2180

log y1

log y2

log y3

2,88081
2,91908
2,94939
2,95904
2,99123
2,83852
2,89209
2,92942

3,18184
3,14922
3,12057
3,14301
3,17898
3,20952
3,22788
3,2329

3,34242
3,37839
3,46834
3,38381
3,37291
3,41830
3,39629
3,33845

,2000.2007..

15

3,500

logyi

3,000
2,500
2,000

1,500
1,000
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.6.2.
,
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.

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:
kg.:
(xi) 35 57 79 911 1113 1315
.(fi) 4
6
9
15
10
3

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20

(fi)
10
0
35

57

79

911

1113

(xi)

1315

(fi)

20
15
10
5
0
4

10

12

14

(xi)

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(mm,cm,.).

17

:
:144,256,324
400..

I
II
III IV
144 256 324 400

: a =

a1 = 144
a1 = 12

a2 = 16
a2 = 256

a3 = 18
a3 = 324

a4 = 20

a4 = 400

.
.
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,,100%.
3,6,
360.

18

:
:
(x)
(f)
36
58
110
60
264

%=

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:

f
100
n

36
100 = 13, 64%
264
58
100 = 21,97%
264

110
100 = 41, 66%
264
60
:
100 = 22, 73%
264

________________
:
100%

13,64% 3, 6 49o

21,97% 3,6 79o

41,66% 3,6 150o
22,73% 3,6 82o

_________________

:
360o

23%

13%

22%

42%

19

3.

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2.
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3.
4.

3.1.1.( X )

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1.
( X )
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:

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1

+ ... + x i

( X ):
n

X=

x +x +x
1

+ ... + x i

X =

x
i =1

.
22

:
6:750,980,1200,1450,1100,
2050..

:
t
I
750(x1)
II
980(x2)
III
1200(x3)
IV
1450(x4)
V
1100(x5)
VI
2050(x6)

X=

x +x +x +x +x +x
1

6
750 + 980 + 1200 + 1450 + 1100 + 2050
X=
6
7530
X=
6
X = 1255

:
1255t.

2.
,
.,
( x1 f1, x2 f2, x3 f3,..., xi fi )
(f1,f2,f3,,fi).

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23

 .
:

X =

x1 f1 + x2 f 2 + x3 f3 + ... + xi f i

f1 + f 2 + f 3 + ... + f i

X =

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

.
:

1.
(
).

(x X ) = 0
f (x X ) = 0
i

i
i
:

2.
:

xmin < X < xmax

3. ,
:

x1 = x2 = x3 = ... = xn
X = x1 = x2 = x3 = ... = xn
4.
:
n

(xi X )
i =1

24

= min

:
70:

10

32

14

11

:
6.
( xi ) (

fi )

( xi fi )

6( x1 )

32(

f1 )

192( x1 f1 )

7( x2 )

14(

f 2 )

89( x2 f 2 )

8( x3 )

11(

f3 )

88( x3 f3 )

9( x4 )

8(

f 4 )

72( x4 f 4 )

10( x5 )

5(

f5 )

50( x5 f 5 )

x f

= 70

X =

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

500
70

X = 7,14
:
7,14.

:
150:

05 610 1115 1620 2125

28 21
52
34
15

25

:
7.
( xi ) (
05
610
1115
1620
2125

fi )

( xi )

xi fi

2,5
8
13
18
23

70
168
676
612
345

28
21
52
34
15

= 150

x f

= 1871

X =

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

1872
150

X = 12, 47

:
12,47.

3.1.2.()

.
,
.

.
1.
x1,x2,x3,,xi
n,:

H=

n
H =
1 1 1
1
+ + + ... +
x1 x2 x3
xi
26

n
n

i =1 x1

:

,
,

,
.
,
.

I
13

II
15

III
18

IV
22

V
19

VI
25

VII
21

VIII
23

:
8.

( xi )

13( x1 )

II

15( x2 )

III

18( x3 )

IV

22( x4 )

19( x5 )

VI

25( x6 )

VII

21( x7 )

VIII

23( x8 )

n=8
H=

n
8

x
i =1

8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
+ + + + + + +
13 15 18 22 19 25 21 23
8
8
H=
=
0, 077 + 0, 066 + 0, 055 + 0, 045 + 0, 053 + 0, 04 + 0, 048 + 0, 043 0, 427
H = 18, 73
H=

27

:
18,73.

2. ()

,.
:
n

f + f + f + ... + fi
fi
H= 1 2 3
H = i =1
f
f1 f1 f1
n
fi
+ + + ... + i

x1 x1 x1
xi
x
i =1 i
:
40
:25,27,32,37,3128.

:
9.
( xi ) (
25
27
32
37
31
28

6
8
9
5
8
4

fi
xi

fi )

0,24
0,29
0,28
0,13
0,26
0,14

= 40

fi

= 1,34

H=

f
i =1
6

fi

x
i =1

40
1,34

H = 29,85
:
29,85.
28

:
650.000 3,5 , 350.000
4,75.0004,5,150.000
580.0001,5.

:
5

H=

f
i =5
5

H
H
H

fi

x
i =5

650000 + 350000 + 75000 + 150000 + 80000

=
650000 350000 75000 150000 80000
+
+
+
+
3,5
4
4,5
5
1,5

1305000
=
185714, 29 + 87500 + 16666, 66 + 330000 + 53333,33
1305000
=
373214, 28
= 3, 496

:
3,496.

3.1.3.(G)
,

.
1.
x1,
x2,x3,,xn,
:

G = n x1 x2 x3 xn G =

x
i =1

29

, xi > 0

i=1

.

:

log G =

log x1 + log x2 + log x3 + ... + log xn

log G =

log x

i =1

G = N log G

:
:

( xi )

15

11

13

10

18

:
10.

( xi )

log xi

n=7

15
9
11
13
10
18
8

1,17609
0,95422
1,04139
1,11394
1,00000
1,25527
0,90309
7,44400

30

log G =

log x

i =1

n
7, 44400

= 1, 06342
log G =
7
G = N 1, 0632
G = 11,57
:
11,57.

:
102kg,:

II

III

IV

VI

102kg( xi ) 8 12 16 19 21 23

x1 = 8; x2 = 12; x3 = 16; x4 = 19; x5 = 21; x6 = 23

G=

x
i =1

G = 6 8 12 16 19 21 23 = 6 14095872
log14095872 7,14909
log G =
=
= 1,19151
6
6
G = N1,19151
G = 15,54
:
15,54102kg.

31

2.
,
.
:
x:

x1,x2,x3,,xi

f:

f1,f2,f3,,fi
n

G = i x1 f1 x2 f 2 x4 f 4 xi fi G = fi xi fi
f

i =1

log G =

f1 log x1 + f 2 log x2 + f3 log x3 ,...., + fi log xi

f1 + f 2 + f3 + ... + fi

log G =

f log x
i =1

f
i =1

.

.
,,
.

32

:
:

..( xi ) 3,5 4,3 5,2 6,5

(

fi )

28

15

:
11.
( xi ) ( xi )

log xi

fi log xi

3,5

28

0,54407

15,23396

4,3

15

0,63347

9,50205

5,2

0,71600

5,72800

6,5

0,81291

4,87746

35,34147

= 57

log G =

f log x
i =1

f
i =1

35,34147
= 0, 62003
log G =
57
G = N 0, 62003
G = 4,169
:
4169.

33

:
:

( xi )
(

510 1015 1520 2025 2530 3035

fi )

28

21

38

24

15

:
12.

( xi )

fi )

510
1015
1520
2025
2530
3035

28
21
38
24
15
8

log xi

fi log xi

7,5
12,5
17,5
22,5
27,5
32,5

0,87506
1,09691
1,24303
1,35218
1,43933
1,51188

24,50168
23,03511
47,23514
32,45232
21,58995
12,09504

160,90924

( xi )

= 134
n

G=

f log x
i =1

f
i =1

160,90024
= 1, 20082
134
G = N1, 20082
G=

G = 15,87

:
15,87.

34

3.1.4.
,
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() .
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3.1.4.1.()
().
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1.
.()
,.

:
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10,12,15,18,18,18,23,29,30.
:
18.=18

35

:
.
2,4,4,4,4,6,8,11,11,11,11,11,17,23.
:
4 11 ,
:
=4=11

2.
, ,
(),
.:

Mo = x + k

( f 2 f1 )

( f 2 f1 ) + ( f 2 f3 )

x
k
f1

f2
f3

kg( xi )
(

fi )

24 46 68 810 1012 1214

8

10

21

19

15

().

:
()68
:

x = 6; k = 2; f1 = 10; f 2 = 21; f3 = 19

36

Mo = x + k

( f 2 f1 )
( f 2 f1 ) + ( f 2 f3 )

(21 10)

(21 10) + (21 19)

11
= 6 + 2 0,846 = 6 + 1, 692
Mo = 6 + 2
11 + 2
M o = 7, 692
Mo = 6 + 2

:
7,692
.

3.1.4.2()

.

()50%
.
.

,

.
(),.
,
.

1.
, ,
,
.
,.
.
37

n +1

2
.

:
:
12,18,21,31,38
:
12,18,24,31,38
n=5
Me =

n +1 5 +1 6
=
= =3
2
2
2

=24
:
:
8,11,19,22,26,32,39,42

:
8,11,19,22,26,31,39,42
n=8

Me =

n +1 8 +1 9
=
= = 4, 5
2
2
2

.
.

22 + 26 48
=
2
2
Me = 24

Me =

2.
,

fi ,()

38

Me =

i =1

)
n

Me =

f
i =1

+1

().

:
41kg
.( x ) 250 280 295 310 340 350
kg( fi )

12

:
13.
.( x )

kg.(

250
280
295
310
340
350

5
7
12
8
6
3

fi )

5
12
24
32
38
41

20,5

= 41

Me =

f
i =1

41
= 20, 5
2

Me = 295

:
(50%)295,
295.

39

 ,
,
,
. ,
.

3.

,(

),:
n

x x
M e = x1 + ( 2 1 ) ( i =1
W2 W1
2

fi

W1 )

x1
x2
W2()
W1()

f
i =1

:
85
.
( xi ) 150160 160170 170180 180190 190200 200210
(

fi )

15

30

40

24

14.
cm( x ) ( fi )
150160
160170
170180
180190
190200
200210

5
15
30
24
8
3

5
20
50
74
82
85

= 85

42,5

Me =

fi
i =1

85
= 42, 5
2

(170180)
n

x1 = 170; x2 = 180; w2 = 50; w1 = 20; fi = 42,5

i =1

x x fi
M e = x1 + 2 1
W1
w2 w1 2

180 170
M e = 170
( 42,5 20 )
50 20

10
M e = 170 + 22,5
30
M e = 170 + 0,333 22,5
M e = 170 + 7,5
M e = 177,5
:
(50%) 177,5 cm
177,5cm.

41

4.

),:

fi + 1

x2 x1 i =1

w1
M e = x1 +

w
w

2
1

:
70,
103.
( x ) 19,5123,5 23,5127,5 27,5131,5 31,5135,5 35,5139,5 39,5143,5 43,5147,5

( fi )

11

14

17

10

:
15.

103( xi ) ( fi )

19,5123,5
23,5127,5
27,5131,5
31,5135,5
35,5139,5
39,5143,5
43,5147,5

9
11
14
17
10
6
3

9
20
34
51
61
67
70

= 70

Me =

f
i =1

+1

2
42

70 + 1 71
=
= 35,5
2
2

35,5

(35,5135,5)

fi + 1

x2 x1
i =1

M e = x1 +
w

1
2
w
w

1
2

x1 = 31,5; x2 = 35, 5; w2 = 51; w1 = 34;

f
i =1

+1
= 35, 5

35,5 31,51
M e = 31,51 +
( 35,5 34 )
51 34
3,99
M e = 31,51 +
1,5
17
M e = 31,51 + 0, 235 1,5

M e = 31,51 + 0,352
M e = 31,862
:
(50%) 31,862103 .
(50%)31,862103.

3.1.4.3.

, :
Q1,Q2Q3.
(Q1) 25%
.
(Q3) 75%
.
(Q1)(Q3).
x<x0,25,
x>x0,75, 50%
0,25<<0,75.

43

1.(Q1)(Q3)

,Q1Q3
:

Q1 = X n +1
4

Q3 = X 3( n +1)

:
9
:
10,28,35,21,16,39,18,32,42
:

:
10
16
18
21
28
32
35
39
42
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
X7
X8
X9

Q1 = X n +1 = X 9+1 = X 10 = X 2,5
4

(Q1)23(1618)

16 + 18 34
=
2
2
Q1 = 17
Q1 =

:
(25%)17.

Q3 = X 3( n +1) = X 3(9+1) = X 310 = X 30 = X 7,5

4

(Q3)78(3539)

35 + 39 74
=
2
2
Q3 = 37
Q3 =

:
(75%)37.
44

,(Q1)
(Q3):

Xn + Xn
+1
4
Q1 = 4
2

X 3n + X 3n
+1
4
Q1 = 4
2

:
,10
:

850,760,920,1050,590,980,690,820,690,1020

(Q1)(Q3).

:
:
590 690 760 820 850 920 960 980 1020 1050
1

x2

x3

x4

x5

X 10 + X 10
Q1 =

x6

x7

x8

x9

10

+1

X 2,5 + X 2,5+1
2

X 2,5 + X 3,5
2

x2 + x3 690 + 760 1450

=
=
= 725
2
2
2
x + x4 760 + 820 1580
= 3
=
=
= 790
2
2
2
725 + 790 1515
Q1 =
=
2
2
Q1 = 757, 2

x2,5 =

x3,5

:
(25%)757,5.

45

x310 + x310
Q3 =

+1

x7,5 + x7,5+1

2
2
x7 + x8 960 + 980 1940
=
=
= 970
x7,5 =
2
2
2
x +x
980 + 1020 2000
=
= 1000
x8,5 = 8 9 =
2
2
2
x +x
970 + 1000 1970
=
Q3 = 7,5 8,5 =
2
2
2
Q3 = 985
:
(75%)985.

2.(Q1)(Q3)

(Q1)(Q3)
.
().
,
,(Q1):
n

f
i =1

Q1 = x1 +

f1
i =1

fQ1

f
i =1

()

f Q1
n

f
i =1

()

46

:
n

3 f1
i =1

Q3 = x1 +

f1
i =1

f Q3

3 fi
i =1

()

1
n

f
i =1

()

f Q1
i

:
125,
%:
(x)
(fi)

8,110
15

10,112 12,114 14,116 16,118 18,120

23
30
41
11
5

(Q1)(Q3)

:
16.

Q1

Q3

(xi)
8,110
10,112
12,114
14,116
16,118
18,120

(fi)
15
23
30
41
11
5

15
38
68
109
120
125

= 125

(Q1)

f f
4
i

Q1 = x1 +

fQ1
47

31,5

93,75

Q1 =

125
31, 25
4

(10,112)
x1 = 10,1 ; fQ1 = 23
f1 = 15 i = 1,9
;
;
31, 25 15
1, 9
Q1 = 10,1 +
23
16, 25
1,9
Q1 = 10,1 +
23

Q1 = 10,1 + 0, 706 1,9

Q1 = 10,1 + 1,34
Q1 = 11, 44
:
(25%)11,44%.

Q3

3 fi
f1
4
Q3 = x1 +
i
fQ3

Q3 =

3 fi
4

3 125 375
=
= 93, 75
4
4

(14,116)

3 fi
4

= 93, 75; x1 = 14,1;

= 68; fQ3 = 41; i = 1,9

93, 75 68
1,9
41
25, 75
1, 9
Q3 = 14,1 +
41

Q3 = 14,1 + 0, 628 1,9

Q3 = 14,1 +

Q3 = 14,1 + 1,193
Q3 = 15, 29

:
(75%)15,29%

48

3. (Q1) (Q3)

( fi ),
(Q1):

Q1 = x1 +
(Q3):

+1

f1

fQ1

3 fi + 1
f1
4
Q3 = x1 +
i
fQ3

:
,,180
103:

()
20,125 25,130 30,135 35,140 40,145 45,150
(fi)
7
18
34
54
30
37

(Q1)(Q3).

:
17.

Q1

Q3

()
20,125
25,130
(30,135)
35,140
(40,145)
45,150

(fi)
7
18
34
54
30
37

= 180

49

7
25
59
113
143
180
/

45,25
135,25

f
Q1 =

+1

Q1 = x1 +

f1

fQ1

+ 1 180 + 1 181
=
=
= 45, 25
4
4
4
i

(30,135)

x1 = 30,1; f1 = 25; f Q1 = 34; i = 4,9

45, 25 25
4,9
34
20, 25
4,9
Q1 = 30,1 +
4

Q1 = 30,1 + 0,595 4,9

Q1 = 30,1 +

Q1 = 30,1 + 2, 915
Q1 = 33, 015
:
(25%) 33,015 10
3

3 fi + 1
f1
4
i
Q3 = x1 +
fQ3
Q3 =

3 fi + 1
4

3 180 + 1 540 + 1 541

=
=
= 135, 25
4
4
4

(40,145)

x1 = 40,1; f1 = 113; f Q3 = 30; i = 4,9

135, 25 113
4,9
30
22, 25
Q3 = 40,1 +
4,9
30
Q3 = 40,1 + 0, 742 4,9
Q3 = 40,1 +

Q3 = 40,1 + 3, 636
Q3 = 43, 736
:
(75%) 43,736 10 .
3

50

3.2.

, .
.
,
.

, .

,
, .
,.

.
.,

,.

:



,.

3.2.1

,.

,
.

.
.
51

:
2()
()
()
(D)

3.2.1.1(2)

, .

+.

02

1.:

=
2

(x

X )2

i =1

:
:

103 kg

I
82

52

II
76

III
95

IV
112

V
150

VI
190

:
18.

( xi X ) ( xi X ) 2

103kg
I
II
III
IV
V
VI

82
76
95
112
150
190

35,5
41,5
22,5
5,5
32,5
72,5

1260,25
1722,25
506,25
30,25
1056,5
5256,25

9831,5

= 705

X =

i =1

705
= 117, 5
6

:
117,5103

2 =

(x

X )2

i =1

9831, 5

= 1638,58
2

:

1638,58

2.

( )

2 =

f (x
i =1

X )2

f
i =1

53

:
40t/xa:

t/xa(xi) 3,15 5,17 7,19 9,111 11,113 13,115

(fi)

11

:
19.

t/xa(xi)
3,15
5,17
7,19
9,111
11,113
13,115

(fi)
5
8
11
9
4
3

4,05
6,05
8,05
10,05
12,05
14,05

20,25
48,4
88,55
90,45
48,2
42,15

4,4
2,4
0,4
1,6
3,6
5,6

19,36
5,76
0,16
2,56
12,96
31,36

96,8
46,08
1,76
23,04
51,84
94,08

338

313,6

= 40

xi fi ( xi x) ( xi x ) 2

fi ( xi x)2

X=

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

338
= 8, 45
40

:
408,45t/ha.

2 =

f (x X )
i =1

f
i =1

313, 6
= 7,84
40

:
40
7,84.

54

3.2.1.2.( )
.
.
.

1. :

( xi X )

i =1

,.

:
2=1638,58.
,:

= 1638, 58

= 40, 479
:

40, 479 10 kg
3

2.

:
n

f (x X )
i =1

f
i =1

:
40 ,
.
55

:
2 =7,84.
,:

= 7,84

= 2,8

:
40
2,8t/ha

3.2.1.3.( )

,
2.
.
1.:
n

2 ( xi x)2
i =1

:

,.
:

2 9831,5
19662
=
= 3277,1667

6
6
= 57, 24

:

57,24103kg.
56

2.
:
n

2 fi ( xi X ) 2
i =1

f
i =1

:
40.

2 313, 6
627, 2
=
= 15, 68

40
40
= 3,959

:
40
3,959t/ha

2
.

3.2.1.4.(D)

.
,
:
n

D=

x
i =1

:15,10,13,9,7,5,8..

57

:
20.

(i)

( xi X )

| xi X |

10
15
13
9
7
5
8
67

5,43
0,43
3,43
0,57
2,57
4,57
1,57
0

5,43
0,43
3,43
0,57
2,57
4,57
1,57
18,57

X =

x
i =1

67
= 9, 57
7

:
7
9,57.
n

D=

x X
i =1

18, 57
= 2, 65
7

:
, ,
2,56.

,
:
n

D=

i =1

f
i =1

58

:
35
..

(i)

870920

920970

9701020

10201070

10701120

11201170

(fi)

11

:
21.

xi X

(xi)

(fi)

(xi)

xifi

870920

895

4475

107,14

107,14

535,7

920970

945

6615

57,14

57,14

399,98

( xi

fi xi X

9701020

11

995

10945

7,14

7,14

78,54

10201070

1045

6270

42,86

42,86

257,16

10701120

1095

2190

92,86

92,86

185,72

11201170

1145

4580

142,86

142,86

571,54

35

35075

2028,54

X=

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

35075
= 1002,14
35

:
1002,14.

D=

fi x X
i

i =1

f
i =1

2028,54
= 57,958
35

:

57,958.

, D=0,
59

 .
,
,
.

3.2.2.

,.
,
.
.
.
:




()

3.2.2.1.(v)


,.
,
, ,
.

.
.
:

Kv =

; K v =

60

100

:

,.

:
:
x = 117,5 103 kg

= 1638,58 = 40, 47kg

,:

40, 47
100 = 0,3444 100
117,5

K v = 34, 44%

Kv =

:
34,44%.

:
40 ,
.

:
: X = 8, 45 t/ha

= 7,84 = 2,8

2,8
Kv =

100 =
100 = 0,3313 100
X
8, 45
K v = 33,13%

:
33,13%.

61

3.2.2.2.(d)

. (
) .

,
.
:

Kd =

:
6 ,
.

:
:

X = 117,5 103 kg;

= 57, 24 103 kg
57, 24
Kd = =
= 0, 487
X 117,5
:
0,487.

:
40
.

:
:

X = 8, 45 ,
= 3,959
3,959
Kd = =
= 0, 4685
X
8, 45
:
0,4685
62

3.2.2.3.

.:

Rlo =

D
100
X

X = 9,57 ,
D = 2,65 k
D
2, 65
100 = 0, 2769 100
Rlo = 100 =
9,57
X
Rlo = 27,69%

:
27,69%.

3.2.2.4.

.
100%.,
,
.
:

VQ =

Q3 Q1
100
Q3 + Q1

:
125
,,

:
: Q1 = 11, 44%; Q3 = 15, 29%

VQ =

Q3 Q1
15, 29 11, 44
3,85
100 =
100 =
100
15, 29 + 11, 44
26,73
Q3 + Q1
63

VQ = 0,1440 100
VQ = 14, 40%

:
14,40%
.

3.2.2.5.()

,


.

.
:

U=

x X

:
,
.

:
:

x = 150; X = 117,5; = 40, 4

U=

xx

150 117,5
32,5
=
= 0,802
40, 479
40, 479

:
150
0,802.
64

95(=95)
: x = 150; X = 117,5; = 40, 479

U=

xx

95 117,5 22,5

40, 479
40, 479
U = 0,5558
=

:
95
0,5558.

3.3.


.
. ,
.

, .
.

.
,
.

,.
:

65

3.3.1. ()

.
(3),
(4).
.

:
n

M3 =

(X
i =1

X )3

M3 =

f (X
i

i =1

X )3

f
i =1

:
n

M3 =

(X
i =1

X )4

M3 =

f (X
i =1

X )4

f
i =1

3.3.2. (3)
3
(3)(3):

3 =

66

M3

 (3) .
().
:
3=0
;
();
3>0
3<0
();

3,:
|3|0.25;

|3|0.50;
|3|>0.50;

:
8
:
21,25,34,42,38,45,51,54.

67

( Xi X ) ( Xi X ) ( Xi X )

..
xi

21

17,75

315,06

5592,36

25

13,75

189,06

2599,57

34

4,75

22,56

107,16

42

3,25

10,56

34,32

38

0,75

0,56

0,42

45

6,25

39,06

244,12

51

12,25

150,06

1838,23

54

15,25

232,56

3546,54

310

959,50

2636,25

X=

i =1

310
= 38, 75
8

X = 38,75 god.

(X

i =1

X )2

959, 48
= 119,94
8

= 10,95
n

M3 =

(X
i =1

X )3

n
M 3 = 329,53

3 =

M3

3 = 0, 25
3

2636, 25
=
8

329,53 329,53
=
10,953
1313,93

:
3= 0,25, ,
( )
.

68

:
30 100
:

(Xi) 2,14 4,16 6,18 8,110 10,112

(fi)
4
11
8
6
1

3:

:
22..

.
(Xi)
(fi)
2,14
4
4,16
11
6,18
8
8,110
6
10,112
1
:
30

Xi

2
X i fi ( Xi X ) ( Xi X )

3,05 12,2
5,05 55,55
7,05 56,4
9,05 54,3
11,05 11,05
/
189,5

3,27
1,27
0,73
2,73
4,73
/

f i ( Xi X )

10,69
1,61
0,53
7,45
22,37
/

42,77
17,74
4,26
44,72
22,37
131,87

( Xi X )

fi ( Xi X )

34,97 139,86
2,05
22,53
0,39
3,11
20,35 122,08
105,82 105,82
/
68,62

X=

X
i =1

fi

f
i =1

M3 =

i =1

189,5
=
= 6,32
30

fi ( X i X )
n

f
i =1

f (X X )
i

i =1

f
i=1

131,78
= 4,39
30

= 2,09

68, 69
30

3 =

M 3 = 2, 289

M3

= 0,25

2,289 2,289
=
2,093 9,175

:
3=0,25,30,
( )
.

69

3.3.3. (4)
(4)
.

4 =

M4

.
:
4=3

4>3

4<3

:
8 103
:11,17,25,36,21,39,2842.

4:

70

23.:

( Xi X ) ( Xi X ) ( Xi X )
2

(Xi)
11
17
25
36
21
39
28
42
219

16,37
10,37
2,37
8,63
6,37
11,63
0,63
14,63

X=

Xi
i =1

n
X = 27,37

267,97
107,54
5,62
74,48
40,58
135,26
0,39
214,04
845,88
n

219
=

(X
i =1

71807,92
11564,85
31,58
5547,27
1646,74
18295,27
0,15
45813,12
154706,9

X )2

845,88
= 105, 73
8

= 10, 28
n

M4 =

(X
i =1

X )4

154706,9
= 19338,36
8

4 =

M4

19338,36 19338,36
=
10, 284
11178,83

4 = 1, 73

:
4=1,73;(4<3)
.

:

:
(Xi) 5,17 7,19 9,111 11,113 13,115 15,117 17,119
(fi)
4
9
12
14
8
5
3

4:
71

:
24.:

.
(Xi)
(fi)

5,17
7,19
9,111
11,113
13,115
15,117
17,119
:

4
9
12
14
8
5
3
55

X i

X i fi

6,05
8,05
10,05
12,05
14,05
16,05
18,05

24,2
72,45
120,6
168,7
112,4
80,25
54,15
632,75

( Xi X ) ( Xi X )2
5,45
3,45
1
0,55
2,55
4,55
6,55

f i ( Xi X )

29,7
11,9
1
0,3
6,5
20,7
42,9

( Xi X )

118,8
107,1
12
4,2
52
103,5
128,7
526,3

882,09
141,61
1
0,09
42,25
428,49
1840,41

4
fi ( Xi X )

3528,36
1274,49
12
1,26
338
2142,45
5521,23
12817,79

X=

X
i =1

fi

f
i =1

632, 75
=

55

f (X
i =1

X )2
=

i =1

X = 11,5

526,3
= 9,569
55

= 3, 09

M4 =

f (X
i

i =1

X )4
=

f
i =1

12817, 79

55

M 4 = 233, 05

4 =

M4

233, 05 233, 05
=
3, 094
91,166

4 = 2,55
:
4=2,55; 55

72

4.

.

.
.

,
.


.

,
,
.
(;;.)
.

.
(,,..) ,
.

, ,
.,
.
.
,
.
,
.

.
73


,
.

,
,.
:

1..

2..

3..

4..

4.1.

() .
,
.
.

.
(%).
100 ,
.
.

1.

2.

,.

.
( ).

,,
74

.

.()
, . .

,.

,.

:
1.
2.
1.
.
.
.
2.
, .
.

().
.
.
(,,,.)
.

.
.

()
:
1.
2.
1.

.

75

2. ,

():

1.()

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

4.1.1.(Bi)
yi,i=1,2,3,...,n
,yi
y.100.

Bi =

yi
100
y0

i=1,2,3,n

:
2000.2008.:

(y)

2000
320

2001
390

2002
410

2003
370

2004
450

2005
510

2006
560

2007 2008
490 630

2003.(2003=100)

76

:
25.
(yi) (2003=100)
2000
320(y1)
B1 =y1 :y4 =(320:370)100
2001
390(y2)
B2 =y2 :y4 =(390:370)100
2002
410(y3)
B3 =y3 :y4 =(410:370)100
2003
370(y4)
B4 =y4 :y4 =(370:370)100
2004
450(y5)
B5 =y5 :y4 =(450:370)100
2005
510(y6)
B6 =y6 :y4 =(510:370)100
2006
560(y7)
B7 =y7 :y4 =(560:370)100
2007
490(y8)
B8 =y8 :y4 =(490:370)100
2008
630(y9)
B9 =y9 :y4 =(630:370)100

Bi (%)
86,49
105,41
110,81
100,00
121,62
137,84
151,35
132,43
170,27

:
2000. 2003.. 13,51%;
2001. 2003. 5,14%; 2002.
2003. 10,81%; 2004. 2003.
21,62%; 2005. 2003.. 37,84%; 2006..
2003. 51,35%; 2007. 2003..
32,43%2008.2003..70,27%.

4.1.2.()(Li)
()
.
().
yi1,i=1,2,3,..,n,:

Li =

yi
100
yi 1

i=1,2,3,n

.

.
77

 .

.

:
103
:

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(yi) 1580 1620 1200 1340 1800 2100 1900 2200

:
26.
(yi) Li (%)
2001
1580(y1)
L1=nemaindeksa

2002
1620(y2)
L2 =y2 :y1 =(1620:1580)100
102,53
2003
1200(y3)
L3 =y3 :y2 =(1200:1620)100
74,07
2004
1340(y4)
L4 =y4 :y3 =(1340:1200)100
111,66
2005
1800(y5)
L5 =y5 :y4 =(1800:1340)100
134,33
2006
2100(y6)
L6 =y6 :y5 =(2100:1800)100
116,66
2007
1900(y7)
L7 =y7 :y6 =(1900:2100)100
90,48
2008
2200(y8)
L8 =y8 :y7 =(2200:1900)100
115,79

:
2002. 2001. 2,53%;
2003.. 2002. 25,93%; 2004..
2003.. 11,66%; 2005.. 2004..
34,33%;2006.2005.16,66%;2007.
2006. 9,52% 2008. 2007..
15,79%.

78

4.1.3.

.,
, , . .
: , ,
.:

1.

2.

4.1.3.1.

.
:

Iq =

qi
q0

100

i=1,2,3,n

:
i
0

:
2007..2008..
:

2007(q0)
2008(q1)
380
580
180
210
520
450
470
560

2007(p0) 2008(p1)
109
130
65
95
98
80
110
125

2008.2007..(2007..)

79

Iq =
: I q =

qi
q0

100

580
100 = 1, 5263 100 = 152, 63%
380

210
100 = 1,1666 100 = 116, 66%
180
450
: I q =
100 = 0,8654 100 = 86, 54%
520
560
: I q =
100 = 1,1915 100 = 119,15%
470

: I q =

:
2008.. 2007..
52,63%, 16,66%,
13,46%19,15%.

4.1.3.2.

.:

1.M

2.M

1.

Iq =

Iq =

Q P
Q P
1

100

Q P 100
Q P
1

:
;Q;0;1
80

:
2007.2008.
(2007.).

,
.

Iq =

Q P 100
Q P
1

580 109 + 210 65 + 450 98 + 560 110

100
380 109 + 180 65 + 520 98 + 470 110
63220 + 13650 + 44100 + 61600
182570
100 =
100
Iq =
41420 + 11700 + 50960 + 51700
155780
I q = 1,1719 100
Iq =

I q = 117,19%
:
2008..2007..(,
,)17,19%.

Iq =

Q P 100
Q P
1

580 130 + 210 95 + 450 80 + 560 125

100
380 130 + 180 95 + 520 80 + 470 125
75400 + 19950 + 36000 + 70000
201350
100 =
100
Iq =
49400 + 17100 + 41600 + 58750
166850
I q = 1, 2067 100
Iq =

I q = 120, 67%
:
2008.. 2007. (,
,)20,67%.
81

2.

.

Q1

Q P Q
=
P Q
0

Iq

100

580
210
450
560
380 109 +
180 65 +
520 98 +
470 110
380
180
520
470
100
Iq =
109 380 + 65 180 + 98 520 + 110 470
63220 + 13650 + 44100 + 61600
182570
100 =
100
Iq =

41420 + 11700 + 50960 + 51700

155780
I q = 1,1719 100
I q = 117,19%
:
2008. 2007.. (,
,)17,19%.

Iq =

P Q
Q
Q P Q
1

100

580 130 + 210 95 + 450 80 + 560 125

100
380
180
520
470
130 580 +
95 210 +
80 450 +
125 560
580
210
450
560
75400 + 19950 + 36000 + 70000
201350

Iq =
100 =
100
49400 + 17100 + 41600 + 58750
166850
I q = 1, 2067 100
Iq =

I q = 120, 67%
:
2008.. 2007. (,
,)20,67%

82

4.1.4.

.:

1.

2.
4.1.4.1

,.:

Ip =

P1
100
P0

:
:

kg
kg

2007
2008
(Q0) (P0) (Q1) (P1)
4200
520
3800
580
1300
310
1600
290
2150
95
2050
98
950
9
1100
11

)2008..
2007.(2007.)

580
100 = 1,1154 100 = 111, 54%
520
290
: I p =
100 = 0, 9354 100 = 93, 54%
310
98
: I p =
100 = 1, 0316 100 = 103,16%
95
11
: I p = 100 = 1, 2222 100 = 122, 22%
9

: I p =

:
2008.. 2007..
11,54%,6,46%,3,16%
22,22%.
83

4.1.4.2.

,.:

1.

2.

1.

Q P 100
Q P
Q P 100
=
Q P

Ip =
Ip

:
2007.2008..
(2007.)

Ip =

Q P 100
Q P
0

4200 580 + 1300 290 + 2150 98 + 950 11

100
4200 520 + 1300 310 + 2150 95 + 950 9
2436000 + 377000 + 210700 + 10450
3034150
100 =
100
Ip =
2184000 + 403000 + 204250 + 8550
2799800
I p = 1, 0837 100
Ip =

I p = 108,37%

:
(,, ) 2008..
2007..8,37%.

84

Ip =

Q P 100
Q P
1

3800 580 + 1600 290 + 2050 98 + 1100 11

100
3800 520 + 1600 310 + 2050 95 + 1100 9
2204000 + 464000 + 200900 + 12100
2881000
100 =
100
Ip =
1976000 + 496000 + 194750 + 9900
2676650
I p = 1, 0763 100
Ip =

I p = 107, 63%

:
(, , ) 2008..
2007..7,63%.

2.
.

P1

P Q P
=
100
Q P
0

Ip

580
290
98
11
4200 520 +
1300 310 + 2150 95 + 950 9
310
95
9
I p = 520
100
4200 520 + 1300 310 + 2150 95 + 950 9
2436000 + 377000 + 210700 + 10450
3034150

Ip =
100 =
100
2184000 + 40300 + 204250 + 8550
2799800
I p = 1, 0837 100
I p = 108,37%

:
(, , ) 2008. 2007..
8,37%.

85

Ip =

Q P 100
P
P Q P
1

3800 580 + 1600 290 + 2050 98 + 1100 11

100
520
310
95
9
3800 580 +
1600 290 + 2050 98 + 1100 11
580
290
98
11
2204000 + 464000 + 200900 + 12100
2881000
100 =
100
Ip =

1976000 + 496000 + 194750 + 9900

2676650
I p = 1, 0763 100
Ip =

I p = 107, 63%

:
(, , ) 2008.. 2007..
7,63%.

4.1.5.

.
:

Iv =

P Q
Q P
1

100

:
2007.
2008..

2007
(Q0) (P0)
530
1200
390
1600
260
690

86

2008
(Q1) (P1)
470
1280
410
1520
320
710

Iv =

P Q 100
Q P
1

1280 470 + 1520 410 + 710 320

100
1200 530 + 1600 390 + 690 260
601600 + 623200 + 227200
1452000
100 =
100
Iv =
636000 + 624000 + 179400
1439400
I v = 1, 0087 100
Iv =

I v = 100,87
:
2008.2007..
0,87%.

4.1.6.

..

..

: ,
,,,,,
.

Ip =

P q
P q
1

p1
p2
q

87

:

2008..

(P0)

(P1)

(q)

29

32

15

210

250

38

39

60

140

130

11

25

45

50

450

470

Ip =

P q
P q
1

32 15 + 250 3 + 39 60 + 130 3 + 11 25 + 50 3 + 470 8

100
29 15 + 210 3 + 28 60 + 140 3 + 9 25 + 45 3 + 450 8
480 + 750 + 2340 + 390 + 275 + 150 + 3760
8145
100 =
100
Ip =
435 + 630 + 2280 + 420 + 225 + 135 + 3600
7725
I p = 1, 0543 100
Ip =

I p = 105, 43%

:
2008.
2008.5,43%.

88

4.1.7.()
()()
.
:

1.

2.

4.1.7.1

I pl( j ) =

xi

x0

i=1,2,,n

xi ,i=1,2,,n
x0
j

:
,
, 2008.. 2008..
:

(L1)
(L0)

10

(x0)
(x1)

8
5
48
250

9
5
47
254

198
85
479
1340

210
130
493
1560

311

315

2102

2393

89

3
10

24,75
17
9,98
5,36

23,33
26
10,48
6,14

x0 = x0 : L0 x1 = x1 : L1


,2008..2008..(2008.
=100%)

1.

I pl(1) =

23,33
= 0, 9426
24, 75

94,26%

2.

I pl( 2) =

26
= 1, 5294
17

152,94%

3.

I pl(3) =

10, 48
= 1, 0501
9, 98

105,01%

4.

I pl( j ) =

6,14
= 1,1455
5,36

114,55%

2008.. 2008..,
5,74% ,
52,94% ,
5,01%,14,55%.

90

4.1.7.2

,.:

1.

2.

1.
:
n

Ipl =

x x
i =1
n

i =1
n

L L
i =1

i =1

xi ,i=1,2,,n
x0
li ,i=1,2,,n
l0
xi ,i=1,2,,n
x0

I
Ipl = x
Ir
:

I x
Ir

:
n

Ix =

x
i =1
n

x
i =1

I r =

L
i =1
n

L
i =1

91

,.

2393 2102
Ipl =
= 7, 5968 : 6, 7588 = 1,1239 112,39%
:
315 311
2008.
2008.. 12,39% .
,
.

2.

1.

2.

1. ,
,:
n

=
0I
'
pl

x L
i

i =1
n

x
i =1

L0

Lo.

2. ,
,:
n

=
0I
'
pl

x L
i =1
n

x
i =1

Li

Li;i=1,2,...,n.

92


,.

Isp,:

I sp =

I x = Ipl Ir

I x = I sp I

Ipl
I

'
pl

, Ipl = I sp I pl
'

'
pl

Ir

Ix,
.
.
,
.
:
n

R pl =

x
i =1
n

L
i =1

: I p ,

I p

:
n

IR pl =

Ipl
I pl

IR pl = R pl :

x
i =1
n

L
i =1

93

:
( 2008. )
2008..
)

)
)
)

)
,
2008..2008.131%.

:
)
n

I =
'
pl

x L
i =1
n

x
i =1

L0

23,33 8 + 26 5 + 10, 48 48 + 6,14 250

24, 75 8 + 17 5 + 9,98 48 + 5,36 250

186, 64 + 130 + 503, 04 + 1535 2354, 68

=
= 1,1201
198 + 85 + 479, 04 + 1340
2102, 04

I pl' =

I pl' = 112, 01%

2008.. 2008..
12,01%.
,.

94

)
n

I =

'
1 pl

x L
i =1
n

x
i =1

I =

'
1 pl

L1

23,33 9 + 26 5 + 10, 48 47 + 6,14 254

24, 75 9 + 17 5 + 9,98 47 + 5,36 254

209,97 + 130 + 492,56 + 1559,56 2392, 09

=
= 1,1187
222, 75 + 85 + 469, 06 + 1341, 44 2138, 25

I = 111,87%

'
1 pl

2008.. 2008..
11,87%.
,.

I sp =

Ipl
I

'
pl

1,1239
= 1, 0034 100,34%
1,1201

2008.
2008..0,34%.

)
n

Ir =

i =1
n

315
= 1, 0128 101, 28%
311

i =1

2008.2008.
1,28%.

)
n

Ix =

x
i =1
n

x
i =1

2393
= 1,1384 113,84%
2102

95

 2008.
2008.13,84%.

I x = I sp I ' pl I r = 1, 0034 1,1201 1, 0128 = 1,1382 113,82%

Ipl=1,1201, Isp=1,0034
Ir=1,0128,
2008. 2008.,
12,01%
1,28%10,34%.

I(4)pl=1,1455114,55%,Ip=1,31131%.

IR pl =

1,1455
= 0,8744 87, 44%
1, 31

2008..2008..
16,67%,
12,56%.

96

4.1.8.

.:

.

4.1.8.1.

.:

IPq( j ) =

Qi Q0
= qi : q0 ( i = 1, 2,..., n ; j = 1, 2,..., m )
:
Ti T0

IPt ( j ) =

Ti T0
:
= ti : t0 ( i = 1, 2,..., n ; j = 1, 2,..., m )
Qi Q0

Qi , i = 1, 2,..., n
Q0
Ti , i = 1, 2,..., n
T0
ti , i = 1, 2,..., n
t0
qi , i = 1, 2,..., n
q0
IPq( j ) ,
.
IPq > 1 100%, IPq < 1
100%,
( j)

IPt
.

IPt > 1 100% ,

IPt < 1 100%

,
.
97

 IPq IPt

IPq( j ) =

1
1
; IPt ( j ) = ( j ) ; IPq( j ) IPt ( j ) = 1
( j)
IPt
IPq

.
2006.,2007.2008.:
103

I
II
III

2007
(T1)

2008
(T2)

2006

2007

Q
q0 = 0
T0

Q
q1 = 1
T1

83 105 131
94 68 75
9 43 43

171
152
39

0,55
0,62
0,26

0,47
0,68
0,26

361

1,196

1,41

2006 2007 2008 2006

(Q0) (Q1) (Q2) (T0)

58 62
42 51
11 11

: 111 124 186 216

249

2008

Q2
T2

2006

2007

2008

0,48
0,62
0,23

52,25
37,84
9,91

50
41,13
8,87

44,62
50,53
4,85

1,33

100,00

100,00

100,00

q2 =

2007.2008.2006..

1.:

)2007.2006.:

IPq( I ) =

Q1 Q0 62 58
:
:
=
= 0, 47 : 0,55 = 0,85 85%
T1 T0 131 105

2007.
2006.15%.

)2008.2007.:

IPq( I ) =

Q2 Q0 83 58
:
:
=
= 0, 48 : 0,55 = 0,8727 87.27%
T2 T0 171 105

2008.
2006.12,73%.
98

IPt ( I ) =

1
1
=
= 1,1765 117,65%
(I )
0,85
IPq

2007.2006.
17,65%.

2.
:
)2007.2006.:

IPq( II ) =

Q1 Q0 51 42
:
= : = 0, 68 : 0, 62 = 1, 0967 109,67%
T1 T0 75 68

2007.
2006.9,67%.

)2008.2006.:

IPq( II ) =

Q2 Q0 94 42
:
: = 0, 62 : 0, 62 = 1 100%
=
T2 T0 152 68

2008.
2006..

IPt ( II ) =

1
1
=
= 0,9118 91,18%
( II )
1, 0967
IPq

2007.
2006.8,82%.

3.
:
)2007.2006.:

IPq( III ) =

Q1 Q0 11 11
:
= : = 0, 25 : 0, 25 = 1 100%
T1 T0 43 43

2007.
2006..

99

)2008.2006.:

IPq( III ) =

Q2 Q0 9 11
:
= : = 0, 23: 0, 26 = 0,8846 88,46%
T2 T0 39 43

IPt ( III ) =

1
1
=
= 1,1304 113,04%
( III )
0,8846
IPq

2008.
2006.,13,04%.

4.1.8.2.

.
:
1. ;
2. .

1.

:
n

lq =
IP

Qi
i =1
n

Q
:

i =1
n

T T
i =1

i =1

:
n

lt =
IP

T T
i =1
n

i =1
n

Q Q
i =1

i =1

:
100

l q = I q IP
l t = Ir
IP
Ir
Iq
Iq , Ir .
:
n

Iq =

Q
i =1
n

Q
i =1

. I r =

T
i =1
n

i =1

,2006..,2007..2008.:

27.

2006

2007

2008

Q
q2 = 2
T2

2006

2007

2008

2006(Q0)

2007
(Q1)

58

73

89

98

115

134

0,59

0,63

0,64

51,3

51,8

42,6

II

43

56

110

57

72

105

0,75

0,77

1,05

38,1

39,7

52,6

2008(Q2) 2006(T0) 2007(T1) 2008(T2)

q0 =

Q0
T0

q1 =

Q1
T1

III

12

12

10

39

39

34

0,31

0,31

0,29

10,6

8,5

4,8

113

141

209

194

226

273

0,58

0,62

0,76

100,00

100,00

100,00

(2006.=100%).

:
)2007.2006.:

l q = Q1 : Q0 = 141 : 113 = 0, 6238 : 0,5824 = 1,0711107,11%.

IP
T1 T0 226 194
2007.2006.
,7,11%.

.

101

) 2008..2006.:

l q = Q2 : Q0 = 209 : 113 = 0, 7655 : 0,5824 = 1,3144 131,44%.

IP
T2 T0 273 194
2008. . 2006. .
,31,44%.

.
2.

..
(Qi)
(Q0).
,
:
n

'
0 IPt =

Ti

Q Q
i =1
n

T0
Q0

i =1 Q0

:
n

IPt =
'

Ti

Q Q
i =1
n

T0
Qi

i =1 Q0

,
:
0

IPq' =

1
1
'
, i IPq =

'
'
0 IPt
i IPt

Isp,

:
102

I sp =

lq
lq
IP
IP

I
=
sp
'
'
0 IPq
i IPq

l q = I IP ' IP
l q = I IP '
IP
sp 0
q
sp i
q

l q I ,:
: I q = IP
r
I q = I sp 0 IPq' I r I q = I sp i IPq' I r

,:
)
.
)
.
) ) )
.
).
)
)
,.
)
,.

:
)20072006.:

T1

Q Q

115
72
39
58 + 43 + 12
91,37 + 55, 28 + 39 185, 65
73
56
12
=
=
=
= 0,9569
0 IPt =
98
57
39
T0
98 + 57 + 39
194

58
43
12
Q

0
58
43
12
i =1 Q0

'

i =1
n

IPt ' = 95,69%

103


, (2006. ),
2007. ,
4,31%.

2.2008.2006.:
n

T2

134
105
34
58 +
43 + 12
87,32 + 41, 04 + 40,8 169,16
'
i =1
110
10
2
= 89
=
=
= 0,8719
0 IPt = n
98
57
39
T0
98 + 57 + 39
194

58
43
12
Q

0
58
43
12
i =1 Q0

Q0

IPt ' = 87,19%

, (2006. ),
2008. 2006. ,
12,81%.

)
:

1.2007.2006.:
n

T1

115
72
39
73 + 56 + 12
115 + 72 + 39
226
'
i =1
56
12
1
= 73
=
=
= 0,9553
0 IPt = n
98
57
39
T0
+
+
123,34
74,
23
39
236,57
73 + 56 + 12
Q1

58
43
12
i =1 Q0
Q1

IPt ' = 95,53%

, (2007. ),
2007.
4,47%.

104

2.2008.2006.:
n

T2

134
105
34
89 +
110 + 10
134 + 105 + 34
273

i =1
'
110
10
2
= 89
=
=
= 0,8305
2 IPt = n
98
57
39
T0
89 + 110 + 10 150,37 + 145,81 + 32,5 328, 68
Q2

58
43
12
i =1 Q0
2

Q2

IPt ' = 83,05%

, (2008. ),
2008. 2006. ,
16,95%.

)
:

1.2007.2006.,:
0

1
1
=
= 1,0450 104,5%
'
0,9569
0 IPt

IPq' =

2.20082006.,:

IPq' =

1
1
=
= 1,1469 114, 69%
'
0,8719
IP
0
t

2007.2008.2006.
4,5014,69%.
.

3.2007.2006.,:
i

IPq' =

1
1
=
= 1, 0467 104, 67%
'
0,9553
i IPt

4.2008.2006.,:
i

IPq' =

1
1
=
= 1, 2041 120, 41%
'
0,8305
i IPt

105

2007.2008.2006.
4,67 20,41%.
.

):

1.2007.2006.:
n

Iq =

i =1
n

141
= 1, 2478 124, 78%
113

i =1

2007.
2006.24,78%.

2.2008.2006.:
n

Iq =

i =1
n

209
= 1,8495 184,95%
113

i =1

2007.
2006.84,95%.

)
:

1.2007.2006.:
n

Ir =

T
i =1
n

T
i =1

226
= 1,1649 116, 49%
194

2007.2006.,
16,49%.

106

2.2008.2006.:
n

Ir =

T
i =1
n

T
i =1

273
= 1, 4072 140, 72%
194

2008.2006.,
40,72%.

)
:

1.2007.2006.:

I sp =

l q 1, 0711
IP
=
= 1, 0249 102, 49%
'
IP
1,
0450
q
0

2007.
, 2006. ,
2,49%.

2.2008.2006.

I sp =

l q 1, 3144
IP
=
= 1,1460 114,6%
'
1,1469
0 IPq

2008.
, 2006. ,
14,60%.

)
:

1.2007.2006.:

I q = I sp 0 IPq' I r = 1, 0249 1, 0450 1,1649 = 1, 2476 124, 76%

107

2007.
2006.,,:
,Isp=1,0249,
,
2,49%
.

0 I q = 1, 0450 ,4,50%,

.
16,49%
16,49%,
.

'

2.2008.2006.:

I q = I sp 0 IPq' I r = 1,1460 1,1469 1, 4072 = 1,8495 184,95%

2008.
2006.,,:
,Isp=1,1460,
,
14,60%
.

0 IPq' = 1,1469 ,14,69%,

14,69%
.
40,72%
40,72%
.

108

4.2.

,
.
.

,
. ,

.
,
,
.
.
,
. , ,

,
. ,

,
.
,
,
. ,
.
,

.

,
.
,
109

 .

.

,
,:
1.
2. ()

3.

4.
.

,
,

. ,

.
, ,
, ,

. ,
, ,

, .
.
,


.
.
,
,
110

.,

, ,
.
, ,
;


.

.
.

111

4.2.1

,
() ,
:

,
X, Y
.

.
(.
0),

.
,
, .

,.
0

,
, ,
.
:
,
.

.
,
. ,

.
112

,
.
I
II

y = na + b x
x y = a x + b x
i

,
ab,
.
ab:

a=

b=

x y
x
i

:
;
.

4.2.1.1


.

..
,

.

.
n

( y y) = 0 ,o.
i =1

113

S y =

( y y)
i =1

:
2002.2008..
:

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(yi)
52
63
50
73
48
82
91

a)
)
) 2012..
)
)

:
28.
(yi)

xi

xi2

xiyi

) (

)2

2002

52

156 49,19

2,81

7,8961

2003

63

126 54,65

8,35

69,7225

2004

50

50

60,11

10,11

102,2121

2005

73

65,57

7,43

55,2049

2006

48

48

71,03

23,03

530,3809

2007

82

164

76,49

5,51

30,3601

2008

91

273

81,95

9,05

81,9025

877,6791

n=7

= 459

= 0 28 153

114

y = a + bx

a=
b=

n
xi yi

459
= 65,57
7

153
=
= 5, 46
28

y = 65,57 + 5, 46 x
)

y 2002 = 65,57 + 5, 46(3) = 49,19

y 2003 = 65,57 + 5, 46(2) = 54, 65
y 2004 = 65,57 + 5, 46( 1) = 60,11
y 2005 = 65,57 + 5, 46(0) = 65,57
y 2006 = 65,57 + 5, 46(1) = 71, 03
y 2007 = 65,57 + 5, 46(2) = 76, 49

y 2008 = 65,57 + 5, 46(3) = 81,95

y = 65,57 + 5, 46(7) = 103,79

2012

2012.103,790.

Sy =
Sy =

( y y)
i =1

n
877, 6791
7

S y = 125.3827
S y = 11,19

115

4.2.2.

,
.
.
.

4.2.2.1()

,,

.
:

116

 ; , b, ,

, ,
, . ,
2 , ,
. ,
, ,
2.
,.(
,).

:
(000).

2000
250

2001
300

2002
320

2003
340

2004
400

2005
380

2006
410

)
)
)
)2010..
:

29.

(yi)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
n=7

250
300
320
340
400
380
410
2400

xi

xi2

xi 4

3 9 81 750
2 4 16 600
1 1
1
320
0 0
0
0
1 1
1
400
2 4
6
760
3 9 81 1230
0 28 196 720

117

xi 2 yi

2250
1200
320
0
400
1520
3690
9380

252,6
291,7
324,9
353,2
376,3
394,2
406,8

2400=7a+28c
720=28b

9380=28a+196c
b=720/28=25,7

7a+28c=2400
7a=240028(2,6 )
a=2472,8/7=353,2

y = a + bx + cx

2400=7a+28c/(4)
9380=28a+196c
9600=28a112c
9380=28a+196c
220=84c

C=2,6

=353,2+25,7x2,6

)
3
2
1

2000=353,2+25,7(3)2,6
2001=353,2+25,7(2)2,6
2002=353,2+25,7(1)2,6

0
2004=353,2+25,7(1)2,6 1
2005=353,2+25,7(2)2,6 2
2006=353,2+25,7(3)2,6 3
2003=353,2+25,7(0)2,6

252,6
291,7
324,9
353,2
376,3
394,2
406,8

)
2010=353,2+25,7(7)2,6

402,27

2010..402,27.
118

4.2.2.2.

.
:

y = a b x
.

.
:

log y = log a + log b

b:

log a =

log yi
i =1

; log b =

x log y
i =1

x
i =1

:

2001.2008.:

() 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(yi) 1150 940 750 620 506 430 390 375

)
)
)2015.
)
)

119

:
29.

2001
1150
2002
940
2003
750
2004
620
2005
506
2006
430
2007
390
2008
375
n=8
5161

xi
3,5
2,5
1,5
0,5
0,5
1,5
2,5
3,5
0

logxi
3,06069
2,97313
2,87506
2,79239
2,70415
2,63346
2,59106
2,57403
22,22397

xi2
xilogyi
12,25 10,71241
6,25 7,43282
2,25 4,31259
0,25 1,39619
0,25
1,35207
2,25
3,95019
6,25
6,47765
12,25 9,00910
42
3,06500

log
3,03088
2,95791
2,88494
2,81197
2,73900
2,66603
2,59306
2,52009

y = a b x
log y = log a + x log b

a)

log a =

log y

x log y
x
i

22, 20397
= 2, 77549
8

a = N 2,77549 1074

log b =

3, 06500
= 0, 07297
42

b = N 0,07297 0,845
log y = 2, 77549 0, 07297 x
y = 1074 0,845 x

)
log y 2001 = 2, 77549 0, 07297 (3,5) = 3, 03088
= 2, 77549 0, 07297 (2,5) = 2,95791
log y
2002

log y 2003 = 2, 77549 0, 07297 (1,5) = 2,88494

log y 2004 = 2, 77549 0, 07297 (0,5) = 2,81197
= 2, 77549 0, 07297 (0,5) = 2, 7390
log y
2005

log y 2006 = 2, 77549 0, 07297 (1,5) = 2, 66603

log y 2007 = 2, 77549 0, 07297 (2,5) = 2,59306
= 2, 77549 0, 07297 (3,5) = 2,52009
log y
2008

120

(yi)2
1074 5776
908 1024
767
289
648
784
548 1764
463 1089
392
4
331 1936
12666

log y 2001 = N 3, 03088 1074

= N 2,95791 908
log y
2002

log y 2003 = N 2,88491 767

log y 2004 = N 2,81197 648

= N 2, 7390 548
log y
2005

log y 2006 = N 2, 66603 463

log y 2007 = N 2,59306 392
= N 2,52009 331
log y
2008

log y 2015 = 2, 77549 0, 07297 (10,5) = 2, 00930

log y 2015 = 2, 00930

102
log y
2015

:
2015.102.

S y =

( y y)
i

12666
= 1583

S y = 39, 79

:

,39,79.

121

4.3.

,

.
.
, ,
.

.
,,,,,,
.

.

.

122

:
:

86
92
95
105
125
145

180
165
150
135
90
75

I
II
III
IV
V
VI

%
72
77
79
89
104
121

VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII

%
150
138
125
108
75
62

,
.
120( x =

1443
= 120)
12

.

. 100,
. ,
77%,150%.
100, 100
100 .
,77,
77% , , 150,
50%
,.
12 1200
100.
.
. ,
,(
).

123

4.3.1

.
.

4.3.1.1.
()
(N)
,10.
x j , j = 1, 2,3, 4 ,
xij , j = 1, 2,..., n , j = 1, 2,3, 4 ,
I j , j = 1, 2,3, 4. ,
4400%.

:

:

(i)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

I
125
141
138
129
137
146
816

II
III
205
258
198
282
210
291
298
302
300
310
315
322
1526 1756

IV
75
86
92
90
89
98
530

x j =, j = 1, 2,3, 4.

124

663
707
731
819
836
881
4637

xj =

x1 =

x
i =1

, j = 1, 2,3, 4

816
1526
1765
530
= 136; x2 =
= 254; x3 =
= 294; x4 =
= 88
6
6
6
6

():

x ij =
x ij =

i =1

j =1

x
4n

ij

4637
= 193, 21
46

xj
xij
136
= 0, 703897 70,38%
I1 =
193, 21
254
= 1,3146 131, 46%
I2 =
193, 21
294
= 1,5216 152,16%
I3 =
193, 21
88
= 0, 4554 45,54%
I4 =
193, 21
Ij =

:

29,62% ,
. , ,
31,46%,.
52,16%

54,45%, .
xij = 193210 .
125

4.3.1.2.

xij , i = 1, 2,..., n; j = 1, 2,3, 4

:

Ij =

xj
, j = 1, 2,3, 4
y
j

.
:

.
30.

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
n=6

(yi)
663
707
731
819
836
881
4637

.(xi)
0
1
2
3
4
5
15

xi yi

xi 2

y
i

( yi y )

( yi y)2

0
707
1462
2457
3344
4405
12375

0
1
4
9
16
25
55

661,0
705,7
750,4
795,1
839,8
884,5

2
1,3
19,4
23,9
3,8
3,5

4
1,69
376,36
571,21
14,44
12,25
979,95

y = a + bx
i
i

y = n a + x b
y x = x a + x
i

i i

_______________________
:

4637 = 6a + 15b
12375 = 15a + 55b
:

a = 661
b = 44, 7
126

,,
2002.2007.,:

y = 661 + 44, 7 x , i = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6

i
i
:30.6.2002.
:
:

=661, ,
2007. 661000 .
=661 ,
.

b=44,7
44700.

,
,:

y = a + b x = a + b x
i
i
i
4 44
4 16

y = 661 + 44, 7 x
i = 1, 2,3, 4
i
i
4
16

2002.2007.:

y = 165, 25 + 2, 79 x
i
i

i = 1, 2,3, 4

:30.06.2002.,
:
:

30.06.2002. ,
,.15.08.2002.,
.=165,25
b=2,79:2=1,395,
=165,25+1,395=166,645

127

,,
2002.2007.,:

y = 166, 645 + 2, 79 x ,
i
i

i = 1, 2,3, 4

:15.08.2002.,
:
:

, ,
,i,2,1,0,1

y

2002. I = y ( x1 = 2) = 166, 645 + 2, 79( 2) = 161, 065
y

2002. II = y ( x2 = 1) = 166, 645 + 2, 79( 1) = 163,855
y
= y ( x = 0) = 166, 645 + 2, 79(0) = 166, 645
2002. III

y

2002. IV = y ( x4 = 1) = 166, 645 + 2, 79(1) = 169, 435

________________________________________
: y
= 661, 0
2002

Ij, j=1,2,3,4
:

Ij =

xj

y
j

: x1 = 136; x 2 = 254; x3 = 294; x 4 = 88;

136
=0,8444 84,44%
161,065
254
I2 =
=1,5501 155,01%
163,855
294
I3 =
=1,7642 176,42%

166,645
88
I4 =
=0,5193 51,93%
169,435
________________________________
: 4,678 467,8%

I1 =

128

4400%

c=

4
= 0,855066
4, 678

I'j = I j c

j = 1, 2,3, 4

I '1 = 0,8444 0,855066 = 0, 77220177

72, 20177%

I ' 2 = 1,5501 0,855066 = 1,3254378 132,54378%

I '3 = 1, 7642 0,855066 = 1,5085074 150,85074%
I ' 4 = 0,5193 0,855066 = 0, 4440358

44, 40358%

27,79823%
, 32,54378% ;
50,85074%
55,59642% .
.

4.3.1.3.
,
,
. (),
() (N).

12 4 .
h=2d,
:

yi k +
yi =

k 1

j = k +1

2 yi + j + yi + k
,

4k

i = k + 1; k + 2;...; n k

.
129

2k, yi 2k
n.
2k+1,
yi ,i=k+1;k+2;;nk:
k

yi =

j = k

i+ j

2k + 1

, i = k + 1; k + 2;...; n k

Ij, j=1,2,, m, m
4 12, ,
(),()(N).
()
:

I ij =

yij
y 'ij

i = 1, 2,..., n;

j = 1, 2,..., m

I ij ji

yij ij
y 'ij
()
(N)
:
n

Ij =

I
i =1

ij

n 1

j = 1, 2,..., m

:
2002.
2007.,:

130

Godina
()

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Kvartal
()

Posetaturista
uhiljad.
( yij )

Poretne
sredine
( yij ')

Centralne
pokretne
sredine
( yij ')

Specifini
sezonski
indeksi
yij
I =

ij

yij '

125

II

205

165.75

III

258

169.75

167.75

1.538003

IV

75
141

168

168.875

0.4441155

174

171

0.8245614

II

198

176.75

175.375

1.1290093

III

282

176

176.375

1.5988661

IV

179

177.5

0.484507

86
138

181.25

180.125

0.7661346

II

210

182.75

182

1.1666667

III

291

180.5

181.625

1.6022023

IV

92
129

202.5

191.5

0.4804178

205.25

203.875

0.6327407

II

298

204.75

205

1.4536585

III

302

206.75

205.75

1.4678007

IV

207.25

207

0.4347826

30
137

209.25

208.25

0.6578632

II

300

209

209.125

1.4345487

III

310

211.25

210.125

1.4753123

IV

89
146

215

213.125

0.4175953

218

216.5

0.6743649

II

315

220.25

219.125

1.4375357

III

322

IV

98

131

i = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6;

y ij ,

j = 1, 2,3, 4.

125 + 205 + 258 + 75

= 165, 75
4
205 + 258 + 75 + 141
= 169, 75
y12 =
4
+ 141 + 198
258 + 75.
= 168
y13 =
4
y11 =

y 'ij , i = 1, 2,3, 4,5,6;

j = 1, 2,3, 4.

165, 75 + 169, 75
= 167, 75
2
169, 75 + 168
= 168,875
y '14 =
2
168 + 174
= 171
y '21 =.
2
y '13 =

Iij , i = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6;

j = 1, 2,3, 4.

258
= 1,538003
167, 75
75
I14 =
= 0, 4441155
168,875
141
I 21.
=
= 0,8245614
171
I13 =

I ij ,
:
n

Ij =

I
i =1

ij

n 1

132

j = 1, 2,3, 4.

32.
(i)

(j)(Iij)
I(1)

II(2)

III(3)

IV(4)

2002(1)

1,538003

0,4441155

2003(2)

0,8245614 1,1290093 1,5988661

0,484507

2004(3)

0,7661346 1,1666667 1,6022023 0,4804178

2005(4)

0,6327407 1,4536585 1,4678007 0,4347826

2006(5)

0,6578632 1,4345487 1,4753123 0,4175953

2007(6)

0,6743649 1,4375357

:Iij

3,5556648 6,6214189 7,6821844 2,2614182

Iij =

I
i =1

ij

6 1

0,711133

1,3242838 1,5364369 0,4522836

4,0241373,4.

Ij,j=1,2,3,4.

c=4:4,0241373=0,9940019

I '1 = 0, 711133 0,9940019 = 0, 7068675

70, 68675%

I ' 2 = 1,3242838 0,9940019 = 1,3163406 131, 63406%

I '3 = 1,5364369 0,9940019 = 1,5272212 152, 72212%
I ' 4 = 0, 4522836 0,9940019 = 0, 4495708

44,95708%

29,31325%
, 31,63406% ,
52,72212%
55,04292%.
.

133


2002.
2007.

,
,,:

2002.2007..

134

4.3.2.

yij ,i =1,2,3,...,n; j =1,2,3,...,m

,

:

yij = Tij Sij Cij Nij , i = 1, 2,3,..., n; j = 1, 2,3,..., m .

(),
,N,%.
yij I ' j
(),
() .
.
.

y 'ij =

yij
I'j

i = 1, 2,..., n;

j = 1, 2,..., m

:
2002..2007.
:

:
'

y ij

i = 1, 2,3, 4,5,6;

j = 1, 2,3, 4 :

y '11 =

y11
125
=
176,836
'
I 1 0, 7068675

y ' 21 =

y21
141
=
199, 742
'
I 1 0, 7068675

y '12 =

y12
205
=
155, 735
'
I 2 1,3163406

y ' 22 =

y22
198
=
150, 417
'
I 2 1,3163406

'
13

y
258
= 13' =
168,934
I 3 1,5272212

y '14 =

'

y 23

y14
75
=
166,826
'
I 4 0, 4495708

y
282
= 23
=
184, 649
'
I 3 1,5272212

y ' 24 =

.,
135

y24
86
=
191, 293
'
I 4 0, 4495708

33.

yij

'

y ij

2002(1)

125

2003(2)

yij

'

yij

'

y ij

y ij

176,836

205

155,735

258

141

199,472

198

150,417

2004(3)

138

195,227

210

2005(4)

129

182,495

2006(5)

137

2007(6)

146

yij

'

y ij

yij

y 'ij

168,934

75

166,825

663

668,33

282

184,649

86

191,293

707

725,831

159,533

291

190,542

92

204,639

731

749,941

298

226,385

302

197,745

90

200,191

819

806,816

193,813

300

227,904

310

202,983

89

197,966

836

822,666

206,545

315

239,299

322

210,840

98

217,986

881

874,67

'

y ij ;

i = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6;

j = 1, 2,3, 4

4.3.3.

,, y i , j
I ' j .

y' = y I , i = 1, 2,..., n;
j
i, j
i, j

j = 1, 2,..., m

:
2002.. 2007..
2008.

:
) 2002..
2007..:

y = 166, 645 + 2, 79 x
i
i
136

i = 1, 2,3, 4

 xi ,22,
23, 24 25, 2008.,
y i , j ,i=7,j=1,2,3,42008..

y

2008, I = y ( x1 = 22) = 166, 645 + 2, 79 22 = 228, 025
y

2008, II = y ( x2 = 23) = 166, 645 + 2, 79 23 = 230,815
y

2008, III = y ( x3 = 24) = 166, 645 + 2, 79 24 = 233, 605

y

2008, IV = y ( x4 = 25) = 166, 645 + 2, 79 25 = 236,395

(),
() (N),
I ' j , j = 1, 2,3, 4
2008.:

y
2008, I = 228, 025 0, 7068675 161,183
y
2008, II = 230,815 1,3163406 303,381
y
2008, III = 233, 605 1,5272212 356, 766

y
2008, IV = 236,395 0, 4495708 106, 276

, , 2008.
161183 , 303831 ,
356766106,276.

137

5.

5.1.

,
.
.
,.
,
. : , , ,
.
..
()
,
wi,i=1,2,,n.,,,...
.
.()
.

. , k ,
.
:

1. A B

,
,.

A B B A

=.

138

2.

A ()

. A

.
3.

A B +

. (
)
+,.
4.

A B A B

.
A B = ( ) ,
.
5.

A \ B A B

;
.

5.2

.

p ( A) =

m,n.

:
1.

p ( A) 0

,
.

139

m

n

2.

p ( A) = 0

m=0,

3.
p ( A) = 1
,m=n

0 p ( A) 1
:
50 35
.
.

:
n =50+35 =85,
m=35.
.

p ( A) =

m 35
=
= 0, 41176
n 85

:

0,4117641,176%.

5.3

m,
,
.:

f ( A) =

m
n

nputa
n puta,
.

140


n
,
.

p ( A) = lim

:
120
100. 5
.
.
:
m=5;n=120;

f ( A) =

m
5
=
= 0, 04166 4,166%
n 120

:
4,166%
.4,166%
. ,
f(A).
:
1. m
n.
0 m n
2.
0 p ( A) 1
3.m=0;p(A)=0
4.Akojem=n;p(A)=1,
5.Akojem<n;0<p(A)<1,

p ( A) = 1 p ( A) = 1

141

:
,
100..
:
100.

p ( A) = 0, 04166
p ( A) = 1 0, 01466 = 0, 9583
:

100.95,83%.

5.4
;
,
.

5.4.1

B
B
p(A/B)=p(A)
p(B/A)=p(B)
B,
.
p(AB)=p(A)p(B)
, B, B
.

142


5.4.2

BiC.
m1 B,m2
Cn ,
():
p(A)=p(B+C)=p(B)+p(C)

,
:
D1,D2,,Dn(Dij=,ij)
p():
n

p(A)=p(D1 +D 2 +...+D n )=
= p(D1 )+p 2 (D 2 )+...+p(D n )

p(A)=

p(D )
i

i=1

:
.1000
, 600 , 300 100 .

?
:
: n=1000; m1=300;
m2=100

p ( A) =

m1 m2 300 100
400
+
=
+
=
= 0, 4 40%
n
n 1000 1000 1000

:
0,4
40%.

143


5.4.3

.
B
. p(A/B),
.
,
:

p( A / B) =

p( A B)

p( B)

,p(B)>0.
,

p ( B / A) =

p( A B)

p ( A)

, p ( A) > 0
:
300
2%.
3.
,
300.
:
n1=300

m1=3003000,002=294

n2=299

m2=293

n3=298

m3=292

p ( A) =

m1 m2 m3 294 293 292

= 0,9409 94,09%
n1 n2 n3 300 299 298

:
0,940994,09%

144


5.4.4

D1, D2, , Dn
:
D1+D2+D3+Dn=
DiDj=ij

Di,i=1,2,,n,
,:

A = A = A( D1 + D2 + ... + Dn )
A = AD1 + AD2 + ... + ADn

AD1 , AD2 + ... + ADn .

:
n

p ( A) = p ( Di )
i =1

p( A) = p ( AD1 ) + p( AD2 ) + p ( AD3 ) + ... + p ( ADn )

:

p( AD1 ) = p( D1 ) p( A / D1 )
p( AD2 ) = p( D1 ) p ( A / D2 )
.

.
.
p( ADn ) = p ( D1 ) p( A / Dn )
:

p( A) = p ( D1 ) p( A / D1 ) + p( D2 ) p( A / D2 ) + ... + p( Dn ) p ( A / Dn )

145

:
n

p ( A) = p ( Di ) p (A / Di )
i =1

p ( Di ), i = 1, 2,..., n
, Di , i = 1, 2,..., n .
,
p ( Di / A), i = 1, 2,..., n ,
Di , i = 1, 2,3,..., n ,
.

:
, 38%
D1,25%D2,15%D3,22%D4.
: 1,7%, 1,3%, 2,1% 1,5% , .
?
:

p( D1 ) = 0,38; p ( D2 ) = 0, 25; p( D3 ) = 0,15; p ( D4 ) = 0, 22

p( A / D1 ) = 0, 017; p( A / D2 ) = 0, 013; p ( A / D3 ) = 0, 021; p ( A / D4 ) = 0, 015;

p( A) = p( D1 ) p( A / D1 ) + p( D2 ) p ( A / D2 ) + p( D3 ) p( A / D3 ) + p ( D4 ) p ( A / D4 )
p( A) = 0,38 0, 017 + 0, 25 0, 013 + 0,15 0, 021 + 0, 22 0, 015
p( A) = 0, 01616 1, 616%

:
1,616%.

146


5.4.5.

.
D1,D2,,Dn
Di D j = i j

D1 + D2 + ... + Dn =
.
Di,

p( Di / A) =

p( A Di )

p ( A)

p( ADi )

p( ADi ) = p( Di ) p( A / Di )
p ( A)
n

p ( A) = p ( Di ) p ( A / Di )
i =1

Di

p( Di / A) =

P( Di ) p( A / Di )
n

p( D ) p( A / D )
i =1

:
75%25%
. 97% 92%.

147

p( D1 ) = 0, 75; p ( D2 ) = 0, 25; p( A / D1 ) = 0,97; p( A / D2 ) = 0,92;

p(A/D1 )=p(D1 )p(A/D1 )=0,750,97=0,7275

p(A)=p(D1 )p(A/D1 )+p(D 2 )p(A/D 2 )
p(A)=0,750,97+0,250,92=0,9575
p( Di A) =

p( A Di ) 0, 7275
=
= 0, 7597
p ( A)
0,9575

:
,
0,759775,97%.

5.5

.

.

5.5.1

()

p ( A) = q ( A) p ( A) + q ( A) = 1 .
nx
0 x n ,
:

148

n
p(n; x) = p x q n x
x

x = 0,1, 2,..., n

p + q = 1
p = q p ( n; x )

x = 0,1, 2,..., n

n

x
p(n; x) = n ,
2

x = 0,1, 2,..., n

n
x

n:

n
n!
=
x x !( n x)!
:

( px + q) n

.
p ( n; x )
:

(np q ) x (np + q )
. np , x = np,

.np,np.

149

:
10%
. 4
0,1,2,3,4 ?
.

:
:
p=0,10;q=0,90;n=4;x=0,1,2,3,4
n
p (n; x) = p x q n x
x
4
p (4;0) = 0,10 0,94 = 0, 6561
0
4
p (4;1) = 0,11 0,93 = 0, 2916
1
4
p (4; 2) = 0,12 0,92 = 0, 0486
2
4
p (4;3) = 0,13 0,91 = 0, 0036
3
4
p (4; 4) = 0,14 0,90 = 0, 0001
4
___________________
= 1, 0000

:

65,51; 29,16%;
4,86%; 0,36%
0,01%.

150


5.5.1.1

0 < p <1
p + q =1

P(n; x) = 1
x =0

X:

xi

n1

pi

qn

npq n 1

n x n x
p q
x

n n 1

p q
n 1

pn

F( x )

0, x 0

n
= p x q x n , 0 x n
x0 x

1, x > n

:
P(n;x) xnpq x=npq
x>npq.
P(n;x) ,
.
:

1.

()==np

2.

2 x = npq

3.

x = npq

4.

3 =

5.

4 =

151

q p

npq

1 6 pq
+3
npq

:
100
.
:
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

34.

( xi )

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

fi )

5
2
19
25
17
5
15
8
4
100

xi fi

(8;)

0
2
38
75
68
25
90
56
32
386

0,0051439
0,0383672
0,125203
0,2334696
0,272097
0,2029577
0,0946149
0,0252047
0,0029376
1,0000000

( f r )i
0,05
0,02
0,19
0,25
0,17
0,05
0,15
0,08
0,04
1,00

) x =

fx
i =1
n

i i

f
i =1

386
= 3,86
100

:
1003,86.
:n=8;x=0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8.

152

p:

p=

x 3,86
=
= 0, 4825
n
8

q = 1 p = 1 0, 4825

p=0,4825;q=0,5175

n
x

P(n; x) = p x q n x :
8
P (8, 0) = = 0, 48250 0,51758 = 0, 0051439
0
8
P (8,1) = = 0, 48251 0,51757 = 0, 0383672
1
8
P (8, 2) = = 0, 48252 0,51756 = 0,125203
2
8
P (8,3) = = 0, 48253 0,51755 = 0, 2334696
3
8
P (8, 4) = = 0, 48254 0,51754 = 0, 272097
4
8
P (8,5) = = 0, 48255 0,51753 = 0, 2029577
5
8
P (8, 6) = = 0, 48256 0,51752 = 0, 0946149
6
8
P (8, 7) = = 0, 48257 0,51751 = 0, 0252047

7
8
P (8,8) = = 0, 48258 0,51750 = 0, 0029376
8

) (),
,:

E ( x) = = n p

E ( x ) = 8 0, 4825 = 3, 68
:

,3,68.,
3,68.

153

):

2x = n p q
2 x = 8 0, 4825 0,5175
2 x = 1,99755
:

() 1,99755. ,
1,99755.

x = n pq
x = 1,99755
x = 1, 413347
:

() 1,413347.
1,413347.

)
:
q p
3 =
n pq

0,5175 0, 4825
1, 413347
3 = 0, 02476

3 =

:

.

)
:
1 6 p q
+3
4 =
n pq

1 6 0, 4825 0,5175
+3
1, 413347
4 = 3,35213

4 =

154

:

.
)

5.5.2

n p ,
p0,05.
:

p(n; x) =

mx m
e ;
x!

x = 0,1, 2,

m > 0

n p 0 , np = m = const
. m
:
m=np=constm>0
:

p=

m
, q = 1 p
n

n
p(n, x) = p x (1 p) n x
x
155

p ( n; x) =

m
p ( x 1)
x

x = 0,1, 2,...

, II ,
III.

p(n; x) = 1 ,
i =0

:
n 1

p (n; n) = 1 p ( n; x )
x =0

:
3000
. 0,05%.
3000
0,1,2,3,4,5,6..
:
:p=0,05%=0,0005;n=3000;x=0,1,2,3,4,5,6

m = nq

mx m
p(n; x) =
e
x!

m = 3000 0, 0005
m = 1,5

1,50 1,5
e = 0, 22313
p (3000;0) =
0!
1,51 1,5
e = 0,334695
p (3000;1) =
1!
1,52 1,5
e = 0, 2510213
p (3000; 2) =
2!
1,53 1,5
e = 0,1255106
p (3000;3) =
3!
1,54 1,5
e = 0, 0470665
p (3000; 4) =
4!
1,55 1,5
e = 0, 0141199
p (3000;5) =
5!
1,56 1,5
e = 0, 00353
p (3000;6) =
6!
_______________
:1, 000000

156

:
22,313%;
33,4695%;
25,10213%; 12,55106%;
4,70665%;
1,41199%0,353%.

5.5.2.1
:

...

...

P (n; m)

e m

m e m

mx m
e
2!

...

mx m
e
x!

...

:
1.

x = n p = m
2

2.

3.

E ( x) = = n p = m

():

x = n p = m
157

4.
5.

1
1
=

n p
m
1
1
= 3+
4 = 3 +
n p
m

3 =

10.150010
.
:
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

:
)
35.

( xi )

fi

xi fi

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
:

320
463
380
195
60
45
29
9
1500

0
463
760
585
240
225
168
63
2504

( f r )i P ( n; x )
0,2133
0,3086
0,2533
0,13
0,04
0,03
0,0186
0,006
1,0000

158

0,18820
0,314294
0,262435
0,1460891
0,0609922
0,0203714
0,00567
0,0019483
1,0000000

x=

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

2504
= 1, 67
1500

:
1500 1,67
.

n = 7; p =

x 1, 67
=
= 0, 238; m = n p = 7 0, 238 = 1, 67
n
7

x = 0,1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6, 7

P( x; n) =

mx m
e
x!

1, 67 0 1,67
e
= 0,18820
0!
1, 671 1,67
P (7;1) =
e
= 0,314294
1!
1, 67 2 1,67
P (7; 2) =
e
= 0, 262435
2!

1, 673 1,67
P (7;3) =
e
= 0,1460891
3!
1, 67 4 1,67
P (7; 4) =
e
= 0, 0609922
4!
1, 675 1,67
P (7;5) =
e
= 0, 0203714
5!
1, 67 6 1,67
P (7; 6) =
e
= 0, 00567
6!
P (7; 0) =

P (7, 7) :
6

P(7;7) = 1 P(n; x)
x =0

P(7;7) = 1 0,9980517
P(7;7) = 0, 0019483
,
.
159

P (7;7) =

1, 67 7 1,67
= 0, 0013527
e
7!

E ( x) = = n p = 7 0.238 = 1, 67
:
1,67 . ,
1,67.

x 2 = n p = 7 0, 238 = 1, 67
:
1,67,

1,67.

):

x = n p
x = 1, 67
x = 1, 29228
:
1,29228,
,
1,29228.

160

):

3 =

1
1
=
n p 1, 29228

3 = 0, 7738
:

.

):

4 = 3 +

1
1
= 3+
= 3,598
n p
1, 67

)
P(n,x)

161

5.6

.
,
.

.

.

1.

:

x , x , x ...x
x = 1 2 3 n ,
p1 , p2 , p3 ... pn

p
i =1

= 1

()
.
.

P ( X E ( x) < ) 1

x2

x 2
:

x2 =

2
n

x2
P ( X E ( x) < ) 1 2
n

162

:
200
100 .
.
, 10 ,
12.

:
:
n = 100; = 12; = 10

x2
P ( X E ( x) < ) 1 2
n
P ( X E ( x) < ) 1

122
= 0,9856 98,56%
100 102

:
,
,,10
98,56%

2.
1,2, ..., n
c (1),(2),(3), ..., (n)
12 , 2 2 ,..., n 2 ;

i 2 C , i = 1, 2,..., n .

x ,
E ( xi ), i = 1, 2,..., n .

x + x + ... + xn E ( x1 ) + E ( x2 ) + ... + E ( xn )
lim P 1 2

x
n
n

= 1

xi ;
n

x + x + ... + xn
x= 1 2
=
n

163

x
i =1

E ( x1 ) + E ( x2 ) + ... + E ( xn )

x2 =

+ x22 + ... + x2n

2
x1

n2

x2
P x E ( x) < 1 2

2
i C

x + x + ... + x
2

C + C + ... + C
nC C
n 2
2
n
n
n

x + x + ... + xn E ( x1 ) + E ( x2 ) + ... + E ( xn )

C
P 1 2

< 1 2
n
n
n

n
:

lim(1
x

C
) =1
n 2

:
500 . ,
500,
,,4,
, 8
.
:

x + x + ... + xn E ( x1 ) + E ( x2 ) + ... + E ( xn )

C
P 1 2

< 1 2
n
n
n

164

x + x + ... + xn E ( x1 ) + E ( x2 ) + ... + E ( xn )

82
P 1 2

< 4 1
= 0,992
500
500
500 42

:
500,
,
99,2%.

3.
n
p(A).
f(A) ()
:

lim p(
x

x
p < ) = 1
n

n
.
:

x
E = p
n
:

pq

x2 =

n
n
:

x
p E < > 1
n
n

x2
n
2

pq

p p < > 1
n 2
n

165

:
0,05,

0,005,20000.
:

n = 20000, p = 0, 05; q = 0,95; = 0, 005

x

pq

p p < > 1
n 2
n

0, 05, 095
x

0, 05 < 0, 005 > 1

= 0,905 90,5%
p
20000 0, 0052
20000

:

0,00590,5%.

5.7.

..

.

.


.
,
.
,
.

166

x1 , x2 ,..., xi ,..., xn ,
n

i =1

i =1

E ( xi ) x 2 ( xi ) :

lim p(a <

x

i =1

i =1

xi E ( xi )
n

i =1

2
x

( xi )

1
2
< b) =
= F (b) F (a)
e
2 b

F(a)F(b)V.
x1 , x2 ,..., xi ,..., xn
E ( xi ) = , i = 1, 2,..., n
x 2 ( xi ) = 2 , i = 1, 2,..., n ,
:

x=

x1 + x2 + ... + xi + ... + xn

x N ( ,

:
yn 2500
11 103
25 106 .
10,8 103 11,3 103 .
:

1 = 10,8; 2 = 11,3; E ( xi ) = 11; x 2 = 25; n = 2500

167

x2 =

x =

x N 10,8;
10

pa <

x E(x )
i =1

i =1

i =1

2
x

( xi )

25
5
1
=
=
50
10
n
2500

x N 11,3;
10

< b = F (b) F (a)

2500
2500

xi

10,8 11 [ xi E ( xi ) ] 11,3 11
i =1
i =1
=
< 11,3 = p
<
<
p 10,8 <
1
1
1
2500

10

10
10

2500

[ xi E ( xi )]

p 2 < i =1
< 3 = F (3) F (2) = 0,9987 (1 0,9772) =
1

10

0,9987 0, 0228 = 0,9759 97,59%

:
10,8 103

11,3 103 97,59%.

168

5.8.

( x)
.
:

x x x ... xi ... xn n
x= 1 2 3
, pi = 1
p1 p2 p3 ... pi ... pn i =1

E ( x) = x1 p1 + x2 p2 + x3 p3 + ... + xi pi + ... + xn pn = xi pi
i =1

E ( x) =

x
E ( x) .
x ( f r )i , i = 1, 2,..., n ,
E ( x) pi , i = 1, 2,..., n
xi , i = 1,2,..., n .

169

:
2mm.
100 .
30 100 , .
.

( pi )

( Pki )

0,10

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,17

0,47

0,27

0,74

0,20

0,94

0,06

1,00

30

1,00

( xi )

( fi )

:
:

1
2
3
4
5 6
0
x=
, pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1
E ( x) = x1 p1 + x2 p2 + x3 p3 + x4 p4 + x5 p5 + x6 p6

E ( x) = 0 0,10 + 1 0, 20 + 2 0,17 + 3 0, 27 + 4 0, 20 + 5 0, 06
E ( x) = 2, 45
:
2,45 ,
2,45.
E ( x)
:
1. E ( x) ,
,,.

p = 1

E (C ) = C 1 = C

E (C ) = C
170


2. E ( x) i
k, E ( x)
k.

E (k x) = kE ( x)
3.Y

E ( x y ) = E ( x) E ( y )
4. Y
:

E ( x y ) = E ( x) E ( y )
5.
,
.

E ( x c) = E ( x) c
6.
,

E [ x E ( x) ] = 0
:
:
):

y = 4 x; z = x 2 ; E = x + 3; k = x 4; H = 4 x + 2; G = 2 x 2 + 1 ;
) E (5 x); E ( x + 3) ;
:
)

1
2
3
4
5 6
0
x=
; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1

171


4
8
12
16
20 6
4 0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 0
y = 4x =
=
; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1

1
4
9
16
25 n
02
12
22
32
42
52 0

z = x2 =
=
; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1

4
5
6
7
8 n
0 + 3 1 + 3 2 + 3 3 + 3 4 + 3 5 + 3 3

E = x+3=
=
; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1
0
1 n
0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 1

k = x4 =
=
; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1

4 0 + 2 4 1 + 2 4 2 + 2 4 3 + 2 4 4 + 2 4 5 + 2
H = 4x + 2
=
0, 20
0,17
0, 27
0, 20
0, 06
0,10

6
10
14
18
22 6
2

; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1

2 02 + 1 2 12 + 1 2 22 + 1 2 32 + 1 2 42 + 1 2 52 + 1
G = 2 x2 + 1 =
=
0, 20
0,17
0, 27
0, 20
0, 06
0,10

3
9
19
23
51 6
1

; pi = 1
0,10 0, 20 0,17 0, 27 0, 20 0, 06 i =1
)

E ( x) = 2, 45
E (kx) = kE ( x); E (5 x) = 5 2, 45 = 12, 25
E ( x + c) = E ( x) + c = E ( x + 3) = E ( x) + 3 = 2, 45 + 3 = 5, 45

172


5.8.1
Y
,
,
,
xi , i = 1, 2,..., n .
x 2 .

E ( x) .

x 2 = E [ x E ( x) ]
2

E ( x) = ,

x2 = E [ x ]
2

xi , i = 1, 2,..., n
pi , i = 1, 2,..., n ,
n

x 2 = ( xi )2 pi
i =1

,:
n

x 2 = xi 2 pi 2
i =1

x .
.

x = x2

:

Vx =

x
E ( x)

100 =

173

x
100

ux =

x E ( x)

:

2mm:
) x 2
) x
) Vx
) u x ,=3
:
37.

( xi )

( fi )

( pi )

0
1
2
3
4
5

3
6
5
8
6
2
30

0,10
0,20
0,17
0,27
0,20
0,06
1,00

xi pi

xi pi

0,00
0,20
0,34
0,81
0,80
0,3
2,45

0,00
0,20
0,68
2,43
3,20
1,50
8,01

[ xi ] pi

= 2, 45
0,245
0,29
0,0765
0,1485
0,31
0,153
/

[ xi ]2 pi

= 2, 45

0,60025
0,4205
0,034425
0,081675
0,4805
0,39015
2,0075

E ( x) = = 2, 45
n

x 2 = xi 2 pi 2
i =1

x = 8, 01 2, 45
2

x 2 = 2, 0075

174

:
,
2,0075.
.
)

x = x2
x = 2, 0075 = 1, 4168

:

1,4168
.
)

Vx =

x
1, 4168
100 =
100

2, 45

Vx = 57,828%
:
57,828%,
.
)

ux =

3 2, 45
= 0,3881
1, 4168

:
3, 0,3881
.

175


x 2 :
1.
:
x2 0
2. :

x 2 (C ) = 0
3. k,

k x 2 .

x 2 (k x) = k 2 x 2
4.
Y,:

x2 ( x y) = x2 + y 2

:
Y
,+Y.

0
2
3 4
1
x=
; pi = 1
0, 22 0,35 0, 25 0,18 i =1

2
3
4 n
1
y=
; pi = 1
0,15 0, 42 0, 23 0, 20 i =1
:

E ( x) = 1 0, 22 + 0 0,35 + 2 0.25 + 3 0,18 = 0,82

E ( y ) = 1 0,15 + 2 0, 42 + 3 0, 23 + 4 0, 20 = 2, 48
Y:

176

x 2 = (1) 2 0, 22 + 02 0,35 + 22 0.25 + 32 0,18 0,822 = 2,1676

y 2 = 12 0,15 + 22 0, 42 + 32 0, 23 + 42 0, 20 2, 48 = 0,9496

x 2 + y 2 = 2,1676 + 0,9496 = 3,1172

+Y:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 n
0
x+ y =

0, 033 0,1449 0,1976 0,162 0, 202 0,1331 0, 0914 0, 036 i =1

= 1
j =1

E ( x + y ) = 0,82 + 2, 48

E ( x + y ) = 3,3
:

2 ( x + y ) = 02 0, 033 + 12 0,1449 + 22 0,1976 + 32 0,162 +

+42 0, 202 + 52 0,1331 + 62 0, 0914 + 7 2 0, 036 3,32

2 ( x + y ) = 14, 0072 10,89 = 3,1172

:
:

2 ( x + z ) = x 2 + y 2 = 3,1172
:
Z = 8 x 5 y + 4 ,
x 2 = 2, 43 y 2 = 1,52
:
2,34,:

z 2 = 82 x 2 + 52 y 2 + 2 (4) = 82 2, 43 + 52 1,52 + 0 = 193,52

:
Z z 2 = 193,52

177

6.O

,
.,
.
,

,
.
,
.

.,
,

,.
,

, .

.

, ,

.
,


178

 . .

,
.

,,

,.
:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1.

,
.
1 N,
,
.
,
, .
.
2.
.

,
,

.

,
.
3.
,
.
179

4. .

,
.

. ,

,
,
.
5. .

,
.

,
.


,
.,

.
.

6.1.
,
, 30 (n<30) ,
30 (n>30).
,
5%,
6%.

.

.
180


:
-

,
.
,
. (2)
.
.

.
(1)
.
.

,
u
().

2,
.

.,
.

1.

n=

N u2
2

( N 1) E 2 + u 2 2

n
2
N

u
E

181

95,45%

u=2

90%
99%
95%
99,73%

u=1,65
u=2,58
u=1,96
u=2,98

:
5000.
95,45%
() 5 ,
3.

:
N=5000;=5;2E=3;95,45%=>u=2
52 5000 22
25 5000 4
500000
n=
=
=
2
2
2
(5000 1) 1,5 + 2 5
4999 2, 25 + 4 25 11347, 75

n = 44, 06

n 44

:
44

:
1500 .
,90%;
4,2.
:

N=5000;2E=2;2=4;90%=>u=1,65
n=

2 N u2
( N 1) E 2 + u 2 2

4 1500 1, 652
16335
16335
=
=
= 10,81
2
2
(1500 1) 1 + 1, 65 4 1499 + 10,89 1509,89
n 11
n=

:
11
182

2.

u
n=

E

:
400.
90%,
,1500
1000.

:
=1500; 2=1000;
90%=>u=1,65
2

2
1500 1,65
n=
= ( 4,95) 24,50
500
n 25

25

,
2,5kg,
5kg.99%.

u
n=

5 2,58 12,9
n=
=
= 10,322 = 106,50

1, 25 1, 25
n 107
:

107.

183

6.2.

.
,,,

.
.
.:

(x t Sx )

x
t()
S x
n

Sx =

i =1

n x

n(n 1)

(x t Sx ) < x < (x + t Sx )
:
,10
103:
69

73

58

42

56

84

54

63

90

85

),95%

)
,200,

184

:
)
10

x=

i =1

n
x = 67, 4

69 + 73 + 58 + 42 + 56 + 84 + 54 + 63 + 90 + 85 674
=

10
10

:
1067,4103
n

Sx =
10

x
i =1

Sx =

i =1

n x

n(n 1)
2

= 692 + 732 + 582 + 422 + 562 + 842 + 542 + 632 + 902 + 852 = 47620
47620 10 67, 42
47620 10 4542, 76
=
10(10 1)
10 9

2192, 4
24,36
90
S x = 4,935
Sx =

:

4,935103

x t Sx x x + t Sx
(t;r=n1;
(101)=9; =0,05% 95% (
tt=2,262)

67, 4 2, 262 4, 935 x 67, 4 + 2, 62 4, 935

56, 237 x 78, 563

:
5%
5623778563.
185

)N=200

N ( x t Sx ) N x N (x + t Sx )
200 56, 237 N x 200 78,563

11247, 4 N x 15712, 6
:
95%5%
20011247,410315712,6103
.

:
15
:
8,10,11,12,12,14,15,15,16,16,17,17,17,18,18
)
99%.
) ,
150.
:
)
15

x=

8 + 10 + 11 + 12 + 12 + 14 + 15 + 15 + 16 + 16 + 17 + 17 + 18 + 18

15

n
216
x=
= 14, 4
15

:
14,4
15

Sx =

2
i

n x

i =1

n(n 1)

15

xi 2 = 82 + 102 + 112 + 122 + 122 + 142 + 152 + 152 + 162 + 162 + 172 + 172 + 172 + 182 + 182 = 3246

i =1

Sx =

3246 15 14, 42
135, 6
=
= 0, 6457
15(15 1)
210

S x = 0,8035

O:

0,8035.
186

x t Sx x x + t Sx
14, 4 2,977 0,8035 x 14, 4 + 2,977 0,8035

99%=>t=2,97

12, 0079 x 16, 7920

:
15 99%
1%1217.
)

N = 150
N (x t Sx ) N x N (x + t Sx )
150(14, 4 2, 977 0,8035) N x 150(14, 4 + 2,977 0,8035)

2157, 607 N x 2162, 392

:
,1%21582162
.

6.3.
,
,
.
.,
.
.

, .
.

.

187

6.3.1.

:
h

i =1

:
N,
h()
Ni(i=1,2,,h)
i(i=1,2,,h)
,: N =

N .
i =1

:
h

x n
i

i=1

X st=

i=1

:
ni(i=1,2,,h),
n n =

n ,
i =1

xi (i=1,2,,h)

,
h

xi =

ij

j =1

ni

, i = 1, 2,..., h

ni

xi =

x
j =1

ij

ni

fi
, i = 1, 2,..., h

:
188

2x =

i 2 Ni 2

ni

i =1

N2

2 (i = 1, 2,..., h)
i

Ni2
(i = 1, 2,..., h ) .
N2

Ni2
, (i = 1, 2,..., h ) W1 ,(i = 1, 2,..., h) :
N2
h

i 2 Wi 2

i =1

ni

x =
2

i 2 Wi 2

i =1

ni

x =

ni

Si 2 =

(x

xi ) 2

ij

i =1

ni 1

, i = 1, 2,..., h

:
ij,'i,i=1,2,,h;j=1,2,,mi

ni

Si 2 =

f (x
i =1

ij

xi ) 2
, i = 1, 2,..., h

ni

Si = Si 2 , i = 1,2,..., h

(
):

Sx =

Si 2 Wi 2
,

ni
i =1
h

189

Wi , i = 1,2,..., h :
Wi =

mi

ni

Sx =

ni Si 2
h

n
i =1

ako

je

ni
5%
Ni

()

Sx =

Si 2 Wi 2 Ni ni

, ako

ni
Ni 1
i =1
h

je

ni
5%
Ni

,
,30,n30.
( )
,:

x st u S x x st + u S x
:

N ( x st u S x ) N N ( x st + u S x )
:
2000
.
,
,.
200.

190

39.

(X)

(Ni)

20,130,0
30,140,0
40,150,0
50,160,0

600
650
400
350
2000

1,6
3,2
2,4
1,5
/

t( xi )

t(Si)
0,3
0,1
0,2
0,4
/

95%:
)
200
)
:
).
N1=600;N2=650;N3=400;N4=350
:

N
N1 600
N
N
650
400
350
=
0,3; 2 =
= 0,325; 3 =
= 0, 2; 4 =
= 0,17
N 2000
N 2000
N 2000
N 2000
,
.

n1 = 200 0, 3 = 60

n3 = 200 0, 2 = 40

n2 = 200 0, 325 = 65 n4 = 200 0,175 = 35

, N=2000, ,
,i=1,2,3,4.:

191

n1
60
n
65
=
= 0,1 10% > 5% 2 =
= 0,1 10% > 5%
N1 600
N2 650
n3
n
35
40
= 0,1 10% > 5%
=
= 0,1 10% > 5% 4 =
N4 350
N3 400

305%.
40.
Ni

ni

600
650
400
350
2000

60
65
40
35
200

1,6
3,2
2,4
1,5
/

Si
0,3
0,1
0,2
0,4
/

96,0
208,0
96,0
52,5
452,5

Si2

Wi2

0,09
0,01
0,04
0,16
/

0,09
0,1056
0,04
0,0306

:
h

x st =

x n
i =1
h

i i

n
i =1

452,5
= 2, 2625
200

:
,
2002,2625.
,
:

Si 2 Wi 2 Ni ni
Sx =

ni
Ni 1
i =1
h

192

Wi,:
Wi =

ni
h

n
i =1

W1 =

60
65
40
35
= 0,3;W2 =
= 0,325;W3 =
= 0, 2;W4
= 0,175
200
200
200
200

S 2 W 2 N n S 2 W2 2 N 2 n2 S32 W32 N3 n3 S4 2 W4 2 N 4 n4

Sx = 1 1 1 1 + 2
n1
N1 1
n2
N2 1
n3
N3 1
n4
N4 1

0, 09 0, 09 600 60 0, 01 0,1056 650 65 0, 04 0, 04 400 40 0,16 0, 0306 350 35

+

60
600 1
65
650 1
40
400 1
35
350 1
S x = 0, 0172829
Sx =

:

0,0172829.

):

x st u S x x st + u S x
2, 2625 1,96 0, 0172829 2, 2625 + 1,96 0, 0172829
2, 2286 2, 2963
:

95%(5%),2000
,2,22862,2963.

):

N ( x st u S x ) N N ( x st + u S x )
2000 2, 2286 N 2000 2, 2963
4457, 2 N 4592, 6

0,950,05
, 2000 ,
4457,24592,6.

193

6.4

N1 N2
2
1 =22,N1
n1 , N2 n2 ,
.
.

:
h

x1 =

i1

i =1

n1

j2

j =1

; x2 =

n2

:
m1

x1 =

i1

i =1

fi1

m1

f
i =1

m2

; x2 =

x
j =1

j2

f j2

m2

i1

j =1

j2

(
1222):

( x x ) =
1

12 22
n1

n2

12 22,

:
n1

S ( x1 x 2 ) =

i =1

j =1

n1 + n2 2

194

n2

xi12 n1 x1 + x j 2 2 n2 x 2

1 1
+ )
n1 n2

m1

S ( x1 x 2 ) =

m2

xi12 fi1 n1 x1 + x j 2 2 fi1 n2 x 2

2

i =1

j =1

n1 + n2 2

1 1
+ )
n1 n2

n130n230
(1+2)1
2:

( x1 x2 ) u S( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 ) ( x1 x2 ) + u S( x1 x2 )
n1<30 n2<30
:

( x1 x2 ) t( ,r ) S( x1 x2 ) (1 2 ) ( x1 x2 ) + t( ,r ) S( x1 x2 )
:
. 3000
1000.
80,15.,
40 , 17 .
1,3
1,1 . 95%,

:
12=1,32=1,69 22=1,12=1,21.
.30,n1=80n2=40,
12
.

( x1 x2 ) =

12
n1

22
n2

1, 69 1, 21
+
= 0, 02112 + 0, 03025
80
40
( x1 x2 ) = 0, 2266

( x1 x2 ) =

0,2266.
195


,:

( x1 x2 ) u S( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 ) ( x1 x2 ) + u S( x1 x2 )
(15 17) 1,96 0, 2266 ( 1 2 ) (15 17) + 1,96 0, 2266
2, 4441 ( 1 2 ) 1,5558
:
95%5%
, 2,4441
1,5558.

:
12
t/ha:
3,1;3,4;3,2;3,0;3,6;3,8;3,3;3,9;3,5;3,2;3,5;3,2.
7 ,
:
2,6;2,1;2,3;2,7;2,5;2,4;2,8.
. 0,99

:
: n1=12<30 n2=7<30.
x1 , x 2 S ( x1 x 2 ) ;:
12

x
i =1

= 3,1 + 3, 4 + 3, 2 + 3, 0 + 3, 6 + 3,8 + 3,3 + 3,9 + 3,5 + 3, 2 + 3,5 + 3, 2 = 40, 7

i1

x
j =1

12

j2

2
i1

i =1
7

x
j =1

= 2, 6 + 2,1 + 2,3 + 2, 7 + 2,5 + 2, 4 + 2,8 = 17, 4

2
j2

= 3,12 + 3, 42 + 3, 22 + 3, 02 + 3, 62 + 3,82 + 3,32 + 3,92 + 3,52 + 3, 22 + 3,52 + 3, 22 = 138,89

= 2, 6 2 + 2,12 + 2,32 + 2, 7 2 + 2,52 + 2, 42 + 2,82 = 43, 6

:
12

x1 =

x
i =1

i1

196

40, 7
= 3, 39
12

:
,12
3,39t/ha.
7

x1 =

x
i =1

i1

43, 6
= 2, 48
7

:
,72,48t/ha.

,
,:
n1

S ( x1 x 2 ) =

x
i =1

i1

n2

n1 x1 + x j 2 2 n2 x 2
2

j =1

n1 + n2 2

1 1
+ )
n1 n2

138,89 12 3,39 2 + 43, 6 7 2, 482 1 1

( + )
12 + 7 2
12 7
= 0,1426

S ( x1 x 2 ) =
S ( x1 x 2 )

:

0,1426t/ha.
n1=12<30 n2=7<30, t(,r)
r = n1 + n2 2 = 12 + 7 2 = 17.
=0,01 t(0,01;17)=2,898;
:

( x1 x2 ) t( ,r ) S( x1 x2 ) 1 2 ( x1 x2 ) + t( ,r ) S( x1 x2 )
(3,39 2, 48) 2,898 0,1425 1 2 (3,39 2, 48) + 2,898 0,1425
0, 4968 1 2 1,3232
:
0,990,01

,0,49681,3232t/ha.

197

6.5

,
.

. .
.,
,
,.

:
1.
2.

1.
,
.
, 0,
02,P0
.

, t
F.
2. ,
,.

.

.
:
,

,

198

6.5.1

,:
1. H0
2. H1

1. H0
.

,
. ,
200
20,.H0

H0:0=20,H0.
H0
.,
,
H0:01kg,H0:01kg.

2. H0 H1,

H0.
,
, H0 H1,
:

H0 : 20 , 0 = 20
H1 : 20

H0,;

20.
199


H0 H1. ,
H0,
H0 . H1 ,
H0,.
H0 (H0:0=0)

0,0
.,0=0.
H0 H1
, .
,
.

6.5.2

H0 H1
(, , X2
),
,
.

.

.


H0.

. .
, n 30 n 30
u
t(,r),.

.
,
:
1. ,
2. ,
200

1. ,
,
,H0,
H0:=0,
.
(u )

u > u0
2

u uo u
2

u < u0
2

H0:=0
2

H0:=0,.

2. 0, 0:0, ,
,
.
(u )

u
u u0

u < u0

0:0
201

0,0:0,,
,
.
(u )

u > u0

u u0

0:0

t
,
u
t(,r).
2 ,
.
f ( 2 )

x2

2 ( , r ) < 0 2

2 ( , r ) 0 2

202

 F
.
f (F )

F( , r1 ,r2 ) F0

F0

F0

F( ,r1 ,r2 )

F( , r1 ,r2 ) < F0

,
.
,.

=1%=5%.,
0 .
0
(I)
.0
(II) .
0.
,
.

203

6.5.3

6.5.3.1.

30
(n30),
(2).

H 0 : = 0 , H1 : 0

H 0 : 0 , H1 : < 0
H 0 : 0 , H1 : > 0
:
0
.

2 ,
u0:

u0 =

x 0

:
2
(
), ()
:

u0 =

x 0

Sx

:
:
n

Sx =

i =1

n x2

n(n 1)

:
m

Sx =

x
i =1

fi n x 2

n(n 1)
204

 0,
.

1. 0:0,0:>0
,
.

:
(u )

u0 < u

u u0 u
2

u0 > u

H0 : = 0 , H1 : 0

(1)0
:

u u0 u
2

0 (1) 100
,:

u0 < u ; u0 > u
2

205

2. : 0:=0; 1:=0
..

:
(u )

u0 u

u0 > u

H0 : 0 , H1 : > 0
0 (1)
:
u0u
0:
u0>u

206

3. 0:0;0:<0,
.

:
(u )

u0 < u

u0 u

H0 : 0 , H1 : < 0
0e:
u0u
0 (1)
:
u0<u

207

:
900.90
.
..
:
)0,
3,60,95?
)0,
4,5?

:
:
N=900;n=90;(1)=0.95;u=1,96;

0,1010%>5%;

.
41.

(x)
(fi)
1,912,41
7
2,412,91
25
2,913,41
18
3,413,91
15
3,914,41
16
4,414,91
9

90

(xis)
2,16
2,66
3,16
3,66
4,16
4,66
/

x=

x
i =1
n

f
i =1

fi

isfi

(xis)2fi

15,12
66,5
56,88
54,9
66,56
41,94
301,9

32,66
176,89
179,74
200,93
276,88
195,44
1062,55

301,9
= 3,35
90

, 90 ,
3,35.
208


:
m

Sx =
Sx =

(x
i =1

) f i nx 2

s 2

n(n 1)

N n
N 1

1062,55 90 3,352 900 90

52.525 810

90(90 1)
900 1
8010 899

S x = 0, 00656 0,901 = 0, 0059106

S x = 0, 07688

0,07688.
)

.
, 900 3,6 . =5%
,
u=u0,025= 1,96. 2 ,
u0:

u0 =

x 0
Sx

3,35 3, 6
u0 =
= 3, 2518
0, 07688

Kako je u0=3,2518 < u0,025=1,96, 0

5%,
900,3,6.
3,35 3,6
0,25

209

0:
f (u )

= 2,5%

= 2,5%

u
u0 = 3, 2518 u
0,025 = 1,96

u0,025 = 1,96

H0 : = 3,6; H1 : 3,6
)
0: 4,5;
1:<4,5.=5%
.
uo
:

u0 =

x 0
Sx

3,35 4,5
u0 =
= 14,95837
0, 07688

u0= 14,95837 < u0,025=1,65, 0

=5% ;
90,4,5,
4,5 . x-0 =3,35-4,8=-1,45
.
0
.

210

 (u )

= 5%

u0 = 14,95837

u0,05 = 1, 65

H0 : 4,5; H1 : < 4,5

6.5.3.2

:
30 n1 30 n2 30,
,1222
.
1
2.
(12)=0.12
22 ,

,:

u0 =

( x1 x1 ) ( 1 2 ) 0

(x x )
1

,:

u0 =

( x1 x1 ) ( 1 2 ) 0

S( x1 x1 )
211

 12 22 ,
:

(x x ) =
1

12 2 2
n1

n2

1222
:
n1

n2

i =1

i =1

xi1 2 n1 x12 + x j2 2 n2 x2 2

S ( x1 x1 ) =

n1 + n2 2

1 1
+
n1 n2

S( x1 x1 ) =

n1

n2

i =1

i =1

xi1 2 fi1 n1 x12 + x j1 2 fi2 n2 x22

n1 + n2 2

1 1
+
n1 n2

H 0 : ( 1 2 ) = ( 1 2 )0 ; H1 : (1 2 ) ( 1 2 )0
H 0 : ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 )0 ; H1 : ( 1 2 ) > ( 1 2 )0
H 0 : ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 )0 ; H1 : ( 1 2 ) < ( 1 2 )0
:
.
200 . 30
50 .
.:12=122=2.
42.

t(xi)
25
28
39
45
48
:

(fi1)
3
5
6
7
9
30
212

(fj2)
6
9
11
10
14
50

 , 95%,
:
),
,?
) ,
,3
,?

43.
44.

xi 1
f i1 ( xi1 fi1 )
xj2
f j 2 (xj2 f j2 )
25
3
75
25
6
150

28
5
140
28
9
252
39
6
234
39
11
429

45
7
315
45
10
450
48
9
432
48
14
672
30
1196
50
1953

x1 =

x
i =1
n

i1 i1

f
i =1

1196
= 30,86
30

i1

:
3039,86.
n

x2 =

x
i =1
n

f
i =1

f 2

1953
= 39,06
50

50
39,06.

213

( x1 x2 ) =

2
1

n1

n2

1 2
+ = 0, 2707
30 50

:

0,2707.
):0:(12)=0,1 :(12)0,(12)0 =0,

.u0:

u0 =

( x1 x1 ) ( 1 2 )0

(x x )
1

(39,86 39, 06) 0

= 2,9553
0, 2707

:
u0 = 2,9553>u0,025=1,96,0 =5%,
,

39,86 39,06 0,8

, .
,
.
0
:
(u )

= 2,5%

= 2,5%

u0 = 2,9553

u0,025 = 1,96

u0,025 = 1,96

H0 : (1 2 ) = 0; H1 : (1 2 ) 0
214

)0:(12)3;1:(12)>3,
3,
(12)=3.

u0:

u0 =

( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 )0

(x x )
1

(39,86 39, 06) 3

= 8,12707
0, 2707

u0= 8.12707<u0,025=1,65, 0
95% 5%.
3 .

39,86 39,06
3
2,2 ,
,.
0:
(u )

= 5%

u0 = 8,12707u

0,0025

= 1,96

u0,0025 = 1,96

H0 : (1 2 ) 3; H1 : (1 2 ) > 3

215

:
1000,
400 600 .
60
t/ha. 50
t/ha.
.
45.

at/ha
(xj2)
3,2

46.

a
t/ha(xi1)
4,1

3,5

18

3,7

(fj2)

(fi1)
7

4,6

17

10

4,4

18

4,0

4,8

17

4,3

4,5

50

60

:
)99%

?
)

0,3t/ha?
:
47.

(xi1)
4,1

(fi1)
7

4,6

xi1fi1

xi12fi1

28,7

117,67

12

55,2

253,92

4,4

18

79,2

348,48

4,8

19

81,6

391,68

4,5

27

121,5

60

271,7

1233,25
216


48.

(x2)
3,2

(f2)
8

3,5

X2f2

X22f2

25,6

81,92

18

63,0

220,05

3,7

10

37,0

136,9

4,0

36,0

144,0

4,3

21,5

92,45

50

183,1

675,32

:
n1

x1 =

fi1

i1

i =1

n1

f
i =1

271, 7
= 4,53
60

i1

:
, 60
,4,53t/ha.

:
m1

x1 =

x
i =1

f 2

m1

f
i =1

183,1
= 3, 662
50

:
, 50
,3,662t/ha.

:
217

S( x1 x1 ) =
S( x1 x1 ) =

m1

m2

i =1

i =1

xi1 2 fi1 n1 x12 + x j1 2 fi 2 n2 x22

n1 + n2 2

1 1
+
n1 n2

1233, 25 60 4,532 + 675,32 50 3, 6622 1 1

+
60 + 50 2
60 50

S( x1 x1 ) = 0, 04784

0,04784t/ha.

) : 0:(12)=0, 1:(12)0, (12)0=0,

,.
u0:

u0 =

( x1 x1 ) ( 1 2 )0 (4,53 3, 662) 0
=
= 18,1438
S( x1 x1 )
0, 04784

:
u0=18,1438> u0,005=2,58 =1%, 0
,
,,
.

4,53 3,662 0,868 / ,

.
0
(u )

= 0,5%

= 0,5%

u0,025 = 2,58

u0,025 = 2,58

H0 : (1 2 ) = 0; H0 : (1 2 ) 0
218

) 0=(12)3 t/ha, 1:(12)>0,3 t/ha.

u0:

u0 =

( x1 x1 ) ( 1 2 )0 (4,53 3, 662) 0,3

=
= 11,8729
S( x1 x1 )
0, 04784

:
u0=11,8729>u0,01=2,33=1%,0
, ,
0,3 t/ha.

4,53 3,662
0,3 0,568,
.

(u )

= 1%

u0 = 11,8729

H0 : (1 2 ) 3; H1 : (1 2 ) > 0,3

219

6.5.4t

6.5.4.1

t,n<30,
2,r=n1.
t(,r) .
,
, 2 ,
.
:

H 0 : = 0 ; H1 : 0

H 0 : 0 ; H1 : > 0
H 0 : 0 ; H1 : < 0

t0:

x 0
Sx

t0 =

1. ,
;:

Sx =

x nx
2

i =1

n( n 1)

,:

Sx =

x f nx
i =1

n(n 1)
220

2.
:
n

x nx N n
S =

i =1

n(n 1)

N 1

,:
n

x f nx N n

S =

i =1

n( n 1)

N 1

0:

1. 0:=0;1:0,
,
t.

0(1
),:

t t0 t

,r
2

,r
2

t0 > t( ,r ) u t0 < t( ,r )

f (t )

t 0 < t

,r
2

,r
2

,r
2

,r
2

,r
2

,r
2

221

t0 > t

t0 t

 : 0: 0; 1: > 0 ,
,t.

2.

0(1)100,
:

t0t(2,r)

0,:

t0>t(2,r)

f (t )

t0 t( 2 ,r )

t 0 > t ( 2 , r )

t ( 2 , r )

H0 : < 0 ; H1 : > 0

3.

:0:0;1:<0,,
t.
(1), 0 , ak
:

t0t(2,r)

,0:

t0t(2,r)
222

0
f (t )

t0 < t( 2 ,r )

t0 t( 2 ,r )
t( 2 ,r )

H0 : 0 ; H1 : < 0

:
350 .
25t/ha.
.
:
(1)=0,9750,025:
)0
65t/ha,350?
) 0
60t/ha,350?

:
49.

t/ha
(xi)

(fi)

xifi

xi2fi

45
54
63
68
74

2
6
10
4
3

90
324
630
272
222

4050
17496
39690
18496
16428

25

1538

96160

223

:
k

x=

x f
i

i =1

f
i =1

1538

= 61,52
25

:
,25,61,25.

N=350
n=25 .

.
0.071 7,1%>5%,
.
:
m

Sx =

x f nx
i =1

n(n 1)

96160 25 61.522 350 25

N n

25(25 1)
350 1
N 1

S x = 1,5471

:

1,5471t/ha.
) : 0:=65; 1:65 t/ha. t0
:

t0 =

x 61,52 65
=
= 2,249
Sx
1,5471

r=n1=251=24=2,5%VII,
,t(0,025;24)=2,391

224

:
t0= 2,249 > t(0,025;24), 0
=2,5%; 350 65
t/ha.
61,52 65
3,48t/ha
.
0
f (u )

= 1, 25%

= 1, 25%

t0 = 2, 249
u (0,0125;24) = 2,391

u( 0,0125;24) = 2,391

0:=65t/ha;1: 65t/ha

);0:60t/ha;1:<60t/ha
t0:

t0 =

x 0 61,52 60
=
= 0,9824
Sx
1,5471

,=2,5%t.
t(2,r) t
.=2,5%,2=22,5%=5%.
r = n1=251=24,
t(0,05;24)=2,064

225

:
t0=0,9882< t(0,05;24)=2,064, 0
,350,60t/ha.
61,52 60 1,52t/ha

.

6.5.4.2.

t ,
N1 N2 12=22.
.
n1<30n2<30,
.
t0:

t0 =

( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 )
S( x x )
1

:
:
n1

S( x x ) =
1

n2

x n x + x n x 1
i =1

i1

j =1

j2

n1 + n2 2

1
+
n1 n2

m1

S( x x ) =
1

i =1

i1

i1

j =1

j2

n1 + n2 2

226

m2

x f n x + x f n x 1
2

j2

1
+
n1 n2

H 0 : ( 1 2 ) = ( 1 2 ) 0 ; H 1 : ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0
H 0 : ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0 ; H 1 : ( 1 2 ) < ( 1 2 ) 0

H 0 : ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0 ; H 1 : ( 1 2 ) > ( 1 2 ) 0
t(,r) VII, ,
r=n1+n22.
:

,20
15.
50.

(xi1)

(fi1)

(xj2)

(fj2)

17
19
21
23
24

3
5
6
4
2
20

14
18
20
22
23

2
4
5
3
1
15

95%:

)0

?
)0
, , 3
?

227

:
51.

2
(xi1fi1) (xi1 fi1)

(fi1)
(xi1)
(xj2)

(xj2fj2) (xj22fj2)
(fj2)

17
19
21
23
24

3
5
6
4
2

51
95
126
92
48

867
1805
2646
2116
1152

14
18
20
22
23

2
4
5
3
1

28
72
100
66
23

392
1296
2000
1452
529

20

412

8586

15

289

5669

:
m1

x1 =

x f
i1

i =1

i1

m1

f
i =1

i1

412
= 20,6
20

:
,
,20,20,6.

:
m2

x1 =

x f
j1

j =1

m2

f
j =1

j1

j1

289
= 19,26
15

,1519,26.

228


:
m2

S( x x ) =
1

i =1

i1

i1

j =1

j2

n1 + n2 2

S( x x ) =

m2

x f n x +x f n x 1
2

j2

1
+
n1 n2

8586 20 20,6 2 + 5669 15 19, 26 2 1

1
+
20 + 15 2
20 15

S( x x ) = 0,8459
1

:

0,8459.
) : 0:(12) = (12)0; 1: (12) (12)0,
(12)0=0
t0:

t0 =

( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0 (20,6 19, 26) 0

=
= 1,5741
S( x x )
0,8459
1

=0,05r=20+152=33VII,
,t(0,05;33)=1,962.
:
t0=1,5841<t(0,05;33)=2,030, 0
=5%
,
.

20,6
19,26 1,34 .
,.

229

0:

f (t )

= 2,5%

= 2,5%

t0 = 1,5841

t (0,025;33) = 2, 030

t( 0,025;33) = 2, 030

0:(12)=0;1:(12)0

) : 0:(12) 3 ; 1:(12)>3
. ,
t(0,10;33)=1,690;(2=2,5%=10%)
t0:

t0 =

( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 )0 (20,6 19,26) 3
=
= 1,9624
S( x x )
0,8459
1

:
t0=1,9624<t(0,10;33)=1,690, ,
=5%,
, , 3
.

3
20,6 19,26
3
1,66

.

230

f (t )

= 5%
95%
45%

t0 = 1,9624
t( 0,10,33) = 1, 690

50%

H0 : (1 2 ) 3; H1 : (1 2 ) > 3

6.5.5.
,,F"()

.
.
.

.
, . ()

.
.
:
1.
2.
3.

231

6.5.5.1.

,
. , ,
,
.

1,i=1,2,...,m.
.
,i=1,2,...,m,
.

12 = 2 2 = 3 2 = ... i 2 = ... m 2 = 2
12
.

i , i = 1, 2,3,..., m .
H 0 : 1 = 2 = ... = i = ... m = 1
H1 :
:
i = 1, 2,..., m i

m A i , i = 1, 2,..., m (
A i .

e
i . i , i = 1, 2,..., m ,
:
i = + i , i = 1, 2,..., m ,

i ,i = 1, 2,..., m i , i = 1, 2,..., m .

() x ij ,i = 1, 2,..., m; = 1, 2,..., n ,
;

x ij = + 1 + ij , i = 1, 2,..., m; = 1, 2,..., n i .

ij (),
i=1,2,...,m;
=1,2,...,n
232


ij , :
, i (
i = i ) ij

i = i , i = 1, 2,..., m .

H 0 : 1 = 2 = ... = i = ... m =

H1:

x ij ,i = 1, 2,..., m; = 1, 2,..., n i

52. ij
()

(i)

...

...

ni

x11

x12

x1

x1n1

x21

x22

x2 j

x2n2

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

xi1

xi 2

xij

xini

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

xm1

xm 2

xmj

xmnm

1. ()
ij , i = 1, 2,..., m; = 1, 2,..., n i ,
X 0 .:

233

53. xij x0

xij x0

()

Si

1 , i = 1, 2,..., m

=1

=2

...

...

= ni

x11 x0

x12 x0

x1 x0

x1n1 x0

S1

x21 x0

x22 x0

x2 j x0

x2n2 x0

S2

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

xi1 x0

xi 2 x0

xij x0

xini x0

Si

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

xm1 x0

xm 2 x0

xmj x0

xmnm x0

S
m

S = Si

i =1

Si , i = 1, 2,..., m
S1 = ( x11 x0 ) + ( x11 x0 ) + ... + ( x11 x0 ) + ... + ( x1n1 x0 ),
S 2 = ( x21 x0 ) + ( x22 x0 ) + ... + ( x2 j x0 ) + ... + ( x2 n2 x0 ),
.
.
.

Si = ( xi1 x0 ) + ( xi 2 x0 ) + ... + ( xij x0 ) + ... + ( xini x0 ),

.
.
.
S m = ( xm1 x0 ) + ( xm 2 x0 ) + ... + ( xmj x0 ) + ... + ( xmnm x0 ).

ni

i =1

j =1

x
m

n
i =1

234

ij

():
ni

xi =

x
j =1

ni

ij

, i = 1, 2,..., m

2.,
:

54.

SA =
i =1

Si 2 S 2

ni
n

S R = ST S A
m

ST =
i =1

ni

( xij )2
j =1

S2
n

SA

m 1

r1 = m 1

VA =

r2 = n m

S
VR = R
nm
VT =

r = n 1

F0 =

VA
VR

F0 =

ST

n 1

F( ,r1 ,r2 )

VR
VA

F( ,r2 ,r1 )

S A ,:
2

S A = ni ( xi x ) =
i =1

i =1

Si 2 S 2

ni
n

n,:
m

n = ni n
i =1

n i ,i = 1, 2,...m
r,:
ni

S R = ( xij xi ) 2 = ST S A
i =1 j =1

x ij
x 0 ,.
:
m

ST =
i =1

ni

(x
j =1

ij

i =1

235

x) =
2

ni

S2
( xij )

n
j =1
2

VA:

VA =

SA

m 1

VR:

SR

nm

VR =

VT:

VT =

ST

n 1

F0:

F0 =

VA
>1
VR

V
F0 = R > 1
VA

FoVA
VR.F(,r1,r2)IX,
r1, r2.
VA r1=m1 r2=nm.
VRr1=nmr2=m1.
0.
(1):
F0F(,r1,r2)F0F(,r2,r1)
0:
F0>F(,r1,r2)F0<F(,r2,r1)
0

236

f (F )

F0

F0

F0 > F( ,r1 ,r2 ) ; F0 > F( ,r2 ,r1 )

F0 F( ,r1 ,r2 ) ; F0 F( ,r2 ,r1 )

F( ,r1 ,r2 )
F( ,r2 ,r1 )

H0

0 , Ai, i=1,2,...,m,
,
:
1.
"t".
2.NZR.
3..

1.
"t" ,
,:

n1 = n 2 = ... = n i = ... = n m

S ( xi xi +1 ) =

2VR
, i = 1, 2,..., m.
ni

SR
.
nm
n1 = n 2 = ... = n i = ... = n m

VR: VR =

237

,:

1
1
S ( xi xi +1 ) = VR +
, i = 1, 2,..., m.
ni ni +1
t 0 ,k=1,2,...,s:
(k )

t0 ( k ) =

| xi xi +1 | i = 1, 2,..., m

S( xi xi+1 ) k = 1, 2,..., s

t 0 , k=1,2,...,s t(r2),
(k)
VII,
r2=nm.
| xi xi +1 | ,:
| xi xi +1 | .,:
t 0 < t ( ,r ) , k = 1, 2,..., s.
(k )

| xi xi +1 | .,
:
t 0 ( k ) t ( ,r2 ) , k = 1, 2,..., s.

5%
| xi xi +1 | , (*).
1%,
| xi xi +1 | (**).
01%,
5%.

2. NZR
:

NZR = t( , r2 ) S ( xi xi+1 ) , i = 1, 2, 3,..., m

NZR
NZR,:

NZR =

2VR
F( , r1 =1, r2 = m ( ni 1)) , i = 1, 2, 3,..., m
ni

238

n i , i = 1, 2,..., m , )
)

F ( ; r1 = 1; r2 = m ( n i 1) )
IX
| xi xi +1 |
:

| xi xi +1 | NZR , i = 1, 2,..., m
:

| xi xi +1 |< NZR , i = 1, 2,..., m

3.,,:

T = Q( , r2 )

VR
, i = 1, 2,..., m
ni

n1=n2=...=ni=...=nm.
,:

1
1
T = Q( ,r2 ) VR +
, i = 1, 2,..., m
ni ni +1
Q(,r2)XVII
, xi , i = 1, 2,..., m
,r2=nm.
, | xi xi +1 |
,:
| xi xi +1 | ,:

| xi xi +1 | , i = 1, 2,..., m
| xi xi +1 | :

| xi xi +1 |< T , i = 1, 2,..., m
239

5 6
. ,
.
t/ha.
55.t/ha,

i , i = 1, 2,3, 4,5 I
1
2
3
4
5

II

III

IV

VI

1,3
1,0
1,1
1,3
2,0

1,2
0,7
0,6
1,5
1,9

1,4
1,2
1,3
1,7
1,5

1,0
1,4
1,2
1,3
1,8

1,2
1,1
1,2
1,4
2,1

1,1
1,3
0,8
1,6
1,7

)0,950,99
,,
.
).

):

m = 5; n1 = n2 = n3 = n4 = n5 = 6; n = 5 6 = 30
x0 = 1t / ha

xij x0 , i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5; j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

56.

xij x0 = xij 1, 0

Ai , i = 1, 2,3, 4,5
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5

j=1
0,1
0,3
0,2
0,6
0,7

j=2
0,3
0,0
0,1
0,3
1,0

j=3
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,9

240

j=4
0,4
0,2
0,3
0,7
0,5

j=5
0,0
0,4
0,2
0,3
0,8

j=6
0,2
0,1
0,2
0,4
1,1

Si
1,2
0,7
0,2
2,8
5,0
S=9,9

:
m
n
S
ST = ( xij ) 2
n
i =1
j =1

ST = (0,12 + 0,32 + 0, 22 + 0, 42 + ... + 0,52 + 0,82 + 1,12 )

9,92
= 6,95 3, 267 = 3, 683
30

x :

x=

i =1

j =1

x
n

n
i =1

ij

39,9
= 1,33
30

301,33t/ha.
.

57.

i , i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

(x

x ) = ( xij 1,33)
2

ij

ni

=1

=2

=3

=4

=5

=6

1
2
3
4
5

0,0529

0,0009

0,0169

0,0049

0,1089

0,0169

0,0009

0,1089

0,3969

0,0169

0,0049

0,0529

0,2809

0,0529

0,5329

0,0009

0,0169

0,0169

0,0729

0,0009

0,0289

0,1369

0,0009

0,0049

0,1369

0,4489

0,3249

0,0289

0,2209

0,5929

0,5445

0,6125

1,3005

0,1885

0,3525

0,6845

(x
j =1

ij

x)

0,2014
0,5814
0,9014
0,2454
1,7534
m

i =1

ni

( xij x ) = 3, 683
j =1

T = 3, 683 ,.

, ,
,:
2

S A = ni ( x x ) =
i =1

SA =

i =1

Si 2 S 2

ni
n

1, 2 + 0, 7 + 0, 2 + 2,8 + 5, 0 9,9

= 5,8016 3, 267 = 2,5346

6
30
2

241

,A
.
,,:
ni

xi =

ij

j =1

ni

, i = 1, 2,..., m

7, 2
6, 7

= 1, 2; x2 =
= 1,116;
6
6
6, 2
8,8
11
= 1, 033; x4 =
= 1, 466; x5 = = 1,83
x3 =
6
6
6
x1 =

1,2t/ha,1,116t/ha,
1,033t/ha,1,466t/ha,1,833t/ha.

:
n1

S A = ni ( x x )

i =1

S A = 6 (1, 2 1,33) + (1,116 1,33) +

2
2
2
+ (1, 033 1,33) + (1, 466 1,33) + (1,833 1,33)

S A = 6 0, 42241

S A = 2,5346

,A.
SR,
,:

SR =
i =1

ni

(x
j =1

ij

xj )

S R = (1,1 1, 2 ) + (1,3 1, 2 ) + (1, 2 1, 2 ) + (1, 4 1, 2 ) + (1, 0 1, 2 ) + (1, 2 1, 2 ) + (1,3 1, 2 ) +

2

+ (1, 0 1,116 ) + ( 0, 7 1,116 ) + (1, 2 1,116 ) + (1, 4 1,116 ) + (1,1 1,116 ) + ( 0,8 1, 033 ) + (1,1 1, 033 ) +
2

+ ( 0, 6 1, 033) + (1,3 1, 033) + (1, 2 1, 033) + (1, 2 1, 033) + (1, 6 1, 466 ) + (1,3 1, 466 ) +
2

+ (1, 5 1, 466 ) + (1, 7 1, 466 ) + (1,3 1, 466 ) + (1, 4 1, 466 ) + (1, 7 1,833) + ( 2, 2 1,833) +
2

+ (1, 9 1,833) + (1,5 1,833) + (1,8 1,833) + ( 2,1 1,833 ) = 1,1484

2

242

,:

SR =ST -SA = 3, 683 2, 5346 = 1,1484

ST,SA,SR,:
5

i =1

j =1

ij

x
i =1

j =1

ij

x
i =1

ij

j =1

= 1,1 + 1,3 + 1, 2 + ... + 1,9 + 1,5 + 1,8 + 2,1 = 39,9 = Si

= 1, 2 2 + 1, 32 + 1, 22 + ... + 1,9 2 + 1,52 + 1,82 + 2,12 =
= (1,1 + 1, 3 + ... + 1, 0 + 1, 2) 2 + (1,3 + 1, 0 + ... + 1, 4 + 1,1) 2 +

+ (0,8 + 1,1 + ... + 1, 2 + 1, 2) 2 + (1, 6 + 1,3 + ... + 1,3 + 1, 4) 2 +

+ (1, 7 + 2, 0 + ... + 1,8 + 2,1) 2 = 333, 61 = Si 2

:
m

SA =
i =1
m

ST =
i =1
m

SR =
i =1

Si 2 S 2 333, 61 39,92

= 55, 6016 53, 067 = 2,5346

ni
n
6
6
ni

( xij )
j =1

S2
39,92
= 56, 75
= 56, 75 53, 067 = 3, 683
n
30

ni

j =1

i =1

( xij )2

Si 2
333, 61
= 56, 75
= 56, 75 55, 6016 = 1,1484
ni
6

ST,SA,SR
.
58.

(F0)

F(,r1,r2)

2,5346
= 0, 634
0, 634
4
F0 =
13,81 F(0,05;4;25) = 2, 76
0,
0459

1,1484
= 0, 0459
SR=1,1484 r2=305=25 VR =
F(0,01;4;25) = 4,18
25
ST=3,683 r3=301=29
/
/

F(0,05;4;25)=2,76F(0,01;4;25)=4,18.IX
,=0,05,=0,01r1=4;r2=25.

SA=2,5346

r1=51=4

VA =

243

F013,81>F0(0,05;4;25) =2,76 F013,81>F(0,05;4;25) =4,18,

0=5%=1%,
(
0
=5%=1%),
.
.

f (F )

= 1%
= 5%
99%
95%
F

F(0,05;4;25)

F0 = 13,81
= 2, 76

F(0,01;4;25) = 4,18
H0 :1 = 2 = 3 = 4 = 5

) =1% =5%

,.
=1%,
=1%,
=5%.

1. t
: ni=6 ,
i=1,2,3,4,5,6.

244


:
S( xi xi+1 ) =

2VR
, i = 1, 2,..., m
ni

S( xi xi+1 ) =

2 0, 0459
= 0,12369
6

t 0 , i = 1, 2, 3,...,10 , 10
(k )
,:
x x
t 0( ) = i i + a ; i=1, 2, ..., m; k=1, 2, ..., s
S( x x )
k

t 0(1) =
t 0( 2) =
t 0(3) =
t 0( 4) =
t 0(5) =
t 0(6) =
t 0(7) =
t 0(8) =
t 0(9) =
t 0(10) =

x1 x2
S( xi xi+1 )
x1 x3
S( xi xi+1 )
x1 x4
S( xi xi+1 )
x1 x5
S( xi xi+1 )
x2 x3
S( xi xi+1 )

i +1

|1, 2 1,116 |
= 0, 6791 < t(0,01;25) = 2, 787
0,12369

|1, 2 1, 033 |
= 1,350 < t(0,01;25) = 2, 787
0,12369

|1, 2 1, 466 |
= 2,1505 < t(0,01;25) = 2, 787
0,12369

|1, 2 1,833 |
= 5,1176 > t(0,01;25) = 2, 787 **
0,12369

|1,116 1, 033 |
= 0, 6710 < t(0,01;25) = 2, 787
0,12369

x2 x4 |1,116 1, 466 |
=
= 2,8296 > t(0,01;25) = 2, 787 **
0,12369
S( xi xi+1 )
x2 x5
S( xi xi+1 )
x3 x4
S( xi xi+1 )
x3 x5
S( xi xi+1 )
x4 x5
S( xi xi+1 )

| 1,116 1,833 |
= 5, 7967 > t(0,01;25) = 2, 787 **
0,12369

|1, 033 1, 466 |

= 3,5007 > t(0,01;25) = 2, 787 **
0,12369

|1, 033 1,833 |

=
= 6, 4677 > t(0,01;25) = 2, 787 **
0,12369
=

|1, 466 1,833 |

= 2,9671 > t(0,01;25) = 2, 787 **
0,12369

t(.r2)=t(0,01;25)=2,787,VII.

245

:
t 0 , i = 1, 2, 3,...,10 ,10
(k )
15,24,2
5,35,45.1,2,3,4,
.
5,1,833t/ha.

2.NZR:

NZR = t( ,r2 ) S ( x xi +1 )
NZR = 2, 787 0,12369 = 0,3447

:
NZR =
NZR =

2VR
F( ,r1 =1;r2 =m ( ni 1))
ni

2 0,0459
F(0,01;25) = 0,0153 7,77
6

F(0,01;4;25)=7,77, XI
.
NZR=0,3447

| xi xi +1 |, i=1,2,...,10 :

| x1 x2 |=|1, 2 1,116 |= 0, 084 < 0,3447

| x1 x3 |=|1, 2 1, 033 |= 0,167 < 0,3447
| x1 x4 |=|1, 2 1, 466 |= 0, 266 < 0,3447
| x1 x5 |=|1, 2 1,833 |= 0, 633 > 0,3447 **
| x2 x3 |=|1,116 1, 033 |= 0, 083 < 0,3447
| x2 x4 |=|1,116 1, 466 |= 0,35 > 0,3447 **

| x2 x5 |=|1,116 1,833 |= 0, 717 > 0,3447 **

| x3 x4 |=|1, 033 1, 466 |= 0, 433 > 0,3447 **
| x3 x5 |=|1, 033 1,833 |= 0,8 > 0,3447 **
| x4 x5 |=|1, 466 1,833 |= 0,367 > 0,3447 **

,
.
246


NZR.

59.

i , i = 1, 2,3, 4,5
5
4
1
2
3

( xi )

xi 1, 033

xi 1,116

xi 1, 2

xi 1, 466

1,833
1,46
1,2
1,116
1,033

0,8**
0,433**
0,167
0,083
0,0

0,717**
0,35**
0,084
0,0

0,633**
0,266
0,0

0,367**

3.
:

= Q( , r2 )

VR
, i = 1, 2,..., m
ni

Q(,r2)XVIII
Q(0,01;25)=5,17m=5.

= 5,17

0,0459
= 0, 45219
6

| x1 x2 |=|1, 2 1,116 |= 0, 084 < 0, 45219

| x1 x3 |=|1, 2 1, 033 |= 0,167 < 0, 45219
| x1 x4 |=|1, 2 1, 466 |= 0, 266 < 0, 45219
| x1 x5 |=|1, 2 1,833 |= 0, 633 > 0, 45219**
| x2 x3 |=|1,116 1, 033 |= 0, 083 < 0, 45219
| x2 x4 |=|1,116 1, 466 |= 0,35 < 0, 45219

| x2 x5 |=|1,116 1,833 |= 0, 717 > 0, 45219**

| x3 x4 |=|1, 033 1, 466 |= 0, 433 < 0, 45219
| x3 x5 |=|1, 033 1,833 |= 0,8 > 0, 45219**
| x4 x5 |=|1, 466 1,833 |= 0,367 < 0, 45219

,
4 | x4 x5 | ,
.
247

,
(,
,, ),
6.

60.

i , i = 1, 2,3, 4

1
2
3
4

1.
32
31
39
42

2.
28
36
41
45

3.
29
30
28
36

4.
33
37
40
37

5.
38
32
33
35

6.

27
35

) 99% ,
,.
).

)():n1=5;
n2=6;n3=6;n4=5
n = n1 + n 2 + n 3 + n 4 = 5 + 6 + 6 + 5 = 22
0 = 35 .

( xij x0 ), i = 1, 2, 3, 4; j = 1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6

61.

xij x0 = xij 35

i , i = 1, 2,3, 4

1
2
3
4

=1
3
4
4
7

j=2
7
1
6
10

j=3
6
5
7
1

248

j=4
2
2
5
2

Si
j=5
3
3
2
0

j=6

8
0

15
17
6
20
S=6

ST =
i =1

ni

( xij )2
j =1

S2
n

(6)2
2
2
2
ST = ( 3) + ( 7 ) + ( 6 ) + ... + 12 + 22 + 02
= 510 1, 6363 = 508,3637

22
m
S 2 S2

SA = i
n
n
i =1
i
(15) 2 (17) 2 62 202 (6) 2
SA =
+
+ +

= 179,166 1, 6363 = 177,5297

6
6
5
22
5
S R = ST S A
S R = 508,3637 177,5297 = 330,834

62.

S A = 177, 5297

r1 = 4 1 = 3

S R = 330,834 r2 = 22 8 = 18
ST = 508, 3637 r3 = 22 1 = 21

( F0 )

F( , r1 , r2 )

177,5297
59,1765
3
59,1765

330,834
VR =
18,3796 F0 = 18,3796 3, 219 F(0,01;3;18) = 5,09
18
VA =

F0 3, 219 < F( 0,01;3;18 ) = 5, 09 H0

1%,,
..

249


).

f (F )

= 1%
99%
F

F0 3, 219

F(0,01;3;18) = 5, 09

H0 :1 = 2 = 3 = n

6.5.5.2.

,
.
Ai , i=1,2,...,m Bj , j =1,2,...,s,
, xij , i=1,2,...,m ; j=1,2,...,s,
.(i,Bj).
n = m s ;mi,i=1,2,...,m;
Bj,j=1,2,...,s.
:
ij = + i + j + ij , i = 1, 2,..., m ; j = 1, 2,..., s .

i ,i = 1, 2,..., m i,

j , j = 1, 2,..., s j,
ij , i = 1, 2,..., m ; j = 1, 2,..., s

H 0 : ( A1 ) = ( A 2 ) = ... = ( A i ) = ... = ( A m ) = 0

1:

H 0 : ( B1 ) = ( B2 ) = ... = ( B j ) = ... = ( Bs ) = 0

1:

250

63.
B j , j = 1, 2,..., s / xij

i , i = 1, 2,..., m

A1

x11

x12

x1j

x1s

A2

x21

x22

x2j

x2s

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

Aj

xi1

xi2

xij

xis

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

Am

xm1

xm2

xmj

xms

xij,i=1,2,...,m;j=1,2,...,s
x0 ,:
64. xij x0
B j , j = 1, 2,..., s

Si

xij x0

i , i = 1, 2,..., m

A1

x11 x0 x12 x0

x1 x0

x1n1 x0

S1

A2

x21 x0 x22 x0

x2 j x0

x2 n2 x0

S2

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

xij x0

xini x0

Si

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.

xmj x0

xmnm x0

Sm

S s

S = Si

.
.
.

Aj
.
.
.

Am

S j

.
.
.

.
.
.

xi1 x0 xi 2 x0
.
.
.

.
.
.

xm1 x0 xm 2 x0
S1

S2

i =1

S j ,:

= 1 + 2 + ... + i + ... + m = ( xi x0 ) + ( x 2 x0 ) + ... + ( xi x0 ) + ... + ( xm x0 ).

i = i1 + i2 + ... + i + ... + i3 = ( xi1 x0 ) + ( xi2 x0 ) + ... + ( xi x0 ) + ... + ( xi3 x0 )

251

 x :
m

i =1

j =1

x=

ij

, xi :
s

xi =

ij

j =1

, i = 1, 2,..., m

, x j ,:
s

x =

ij

=1

, i = 1, 2,..., s

65.

SA =

i =1

S2

r1 = m 1

S
VA = A
m 1

SB =

j =1

S2
n

r2 = s 1

S
VB = B
s 1

S R = ST S A S B r3 = ( m 1)( s 1) VR =
m

ST =
i =1

( xij )
j =1

S2
n

r4 = n 1

F0( A) =

VR
V

F0( B ) =

VB
VR

F0( )

SR
(m 1)( s 1)

VT =

VA
VR

S j 2

( F0 )

F0( A) =

Si 2

ST

n 1

V
= R
V

(F )

F( ,r1 ,r3 )

F( ,r3 ,r1 )
F( ,r2 ,r3 )

F( ,r3 , r2 )

,
:
m

S A = S ( xi x ) =
i =1

252

S
i =1

S2

 ,
:
s

S B = m( x j x ) =

S
j =1

j =1

S2

T:
m

ST =
i =1

( xij x ) =
j =1

i =1

( xij )
j =1

S2

R:

S R = ST S A S B

SA
,
m 1
S
V = ,
S 1
SR
VR =
,
(m 1)( s 1)
S
V = T ,()
n 1
VA =

VA
V
F0( A ) = R
VR
VA
V
V
= B F0( B ) = R
VR
VB

F0( A ) =
F0( B )

F0(A) F0(B)
VVB,IX
.

253

F0( A) F ( , r1 , r3 ) F0( A) F ( , r3 , r1 ) H 0
F0( A) > F ( , r1 , r3 ) F0( A) > F ( , r3 , r1 ) H 0
F0( ) < F ( , r2 , r3 ) F0( ) F ( , r3 , r2 ) H 0
F0( ) > F ( , r2 , r3 ) F0( A) > F ( , r3 , r2 ) H 0

f (F )

F0( )

F0( A)

F0( ) > F( ,r1 ,r3 )

F0( ) F( ,r1 ,r3 )

F( ,r1 ,r3 )

f (F )

F0( )

F0( )

F0( ) > F( ,r2 ,r3 )

F0( B ) F( ,r2 ,r3 )

F( ,r2 , r3 )

H0B.

254

, ,
:
1. ''t''
.
2.NZR.
3..

1. ''t''

( )
:

2 VR
S

S( x x ) =
i +1

(),:

2 VR
m

S( x x ) =
i +1

t0 :
(k )

t0 =
(k )

xi xi +1
S( x x )
i

i = 1,2,..., m

k = 1,2,..., s

i +1

.
:
t0 < t
, k = 1,2,...,s
(k)

( ,r2 )

xi xi +1

t 0( ) t ( ,r ) , k = 1,2,...,s
k

xi xi +1

r3=(m1)(s1).

2. NZR
NZR:

NZR =

2 VR
F( ;r =1;r =( m 1)( s 1))
S
1

255

NZR =

2 VR
F( ;r =1;r = ( m 1)( s 1))
m
1

,:

,
xi xi +1 NZR, i = 1, 2,..., m

xi xi +1

xi xi +1 < NZR, i = 1,2,..., m

3.
:

T = Q( ,r )

VR
,
S

T = Q( ,r )

VR
,
m

:
3

xi xi +1

xi xi +1 T , i = 1, 2,..., m

xi xi +1 < T , i = 1,2,..., m

,:

RA =

S A ( m 1) VR
ST VR

S ( s 1) VR
RB = B
ST VR
256

.

..

66.

Ai = 1, 2, 3, 4

B j , = 1, 2,3
B1
68
158
110
125

A1
A2
A3
A4

B2
135
162
158
205

B3
75
175
85
115

0,95:
)0
,
)0
,
).
)

:
:
m = 4; s = 3; n = 12; 0 = 1204
x ij x0 = xij 120 , i = 1, 2, 3, 4; j = 1, 2, 3 .

67.

Ai = 1, 2, 3, 4

B j , = 1, 2,3

xij 120

A1
A2
A3
A4

B1(j=1)
52
38
10
5

B2(j=2)
15
42
38
85

B3(j=3)
45
55
35
5

82
135
7
85

Si j

19

180

30

S=131

257

Si i

T:
m
s
2
S2
ST = ( xij )
n
i =1
j =1

2
131
= 21213 1430, 0883 = 19782,917
ST = ( 522 + 152 + 452 + ... + 52 + 852 + 52 )
12
,A:
m

S2

S
n
2
2
2
2
2
82 + 135 + 7 + 85 131

= 10741 1430, 0883 = 9310,9167

SA =
3
12
SA =

i =1

ii

,:
s

S2

m
n
2
2
2
2
19 + 180 + 30 131

= 8415, 25 1430, 0883 = 6985,167

SB =
4
12
SB =

i =1

ij

R:

R = T A = 19782,971 9370,9167 6985,167 = 3486,833

68.

SA = 9310,9167

r1 = 4 1 = 3 VA =

( F0 )

3103,63
9310,9167
5,34
= 3103, 63 F0( A) =
581,138
3

3492,58
6985,167
6, 01
= 3492, 58 F0( B ) =
581,138
2
3486,833
r3 = (4 1)(3 1) = 6 VR =
= 581,138

SB = 6985,167 r2 = 3 1 = 2
SR = 3486,833

VB =

(F )

F(0,05;3,6) = 4,76

F(0,05;2,6) = 5,14

ST =19782,917 r = 12 1 = 11

F0 A 5,34 > F( 0,05;3,6) = 4,76 0

( )

95%5%,
,
.
258

f (F )

= 5%
95%

F
F0( A ) 5,34

F(0,05;3,6) = 4, 76

F0 6, 01 > F( 0,05;2,5) = 5,14 , 0

( )

=5%,
, ,
.

f (F )

= 5%
95%
F
F0( A ) 6, 01
F(0,05;2,6) = 5,14

),

,
() (
).

259

1.
,,:

S ( x1 x2 ) =

2VR
S

S ( x1 x2 ) =

2 581,138
= 19, 683
3

,,:

S ( x1 x2 ) =

2VR
m

S ( x1 x2 ) =

2 581,138
= 17, 046
4

,:

278
= 92, 66( )
3
495
x2( A2 ) =
= 165( )
3

353
x3( A3 ) =
= 117, 66( )
3
445
x4( A4 ) =
= 148, 33( )
3
x1( A1 ) =

,:

461
= 115, 25( )
4
660
x2( 2 )2 =
= 165( )
4
450
x3( 3 )3 =
= 112,5( )
4
, k = 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6
x1( 1 )1 =

t 0 k

( )

,:

t0( k ) =
t0( k ) =
t ( 0,05;6 )

x xi +1
S( x xi+1 )

92, 66 165

= 3, 6752 > t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447 *

19, 683
= 2, 447 VII.

260

t 0( 2 ) =

92, 66 117, 66
= 1, 2701 < t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447
19, 683

t0( 3) =

92, 66 148,33
= 2,828 > t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447 **
19, 683

t 0( 4 ) =

165 117, 66
= 2, 405 < t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447
19, 683

t0( 5) =

165 148,33
= 0,846 < t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447
19, 683

t0( 6) =

117, 66 148,33
= 1,558 < t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447
19, 683

1
224.
24(24
).
t 0 k , k = 1, 2,3 ,,
( )

t0(1) =
t 0( 2 ) =
t0( 3) =

115, 25 165
17, 046

= 2,918 > t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447 *

115, 25 112,5
= 0,161 < t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447
17, 046
165 112,5
17, 046

= 3, 079 > t( 0,05;6) = 2, 447 *

1
22 3.2(
)24.

261

2. NZR ( )
:
NZR = t( , r2 ) S( xi xi+1 )
NZT = 2, 447 19, 683 = 48,1643

().
x1( A1 ) x2( A2 ) = 92, 66 165 = 72,34 > 48,1643*

x1( A1 ) x3( A3 ) = 92, 66 117, 66 = 25 > 48,1643

x1( A1 ) x4( A4 ) = 92, 66 148,35 = 55, 69 > 48,1643*
x1( A2 ) x3( A3 ) = 165 117, 66 = 47,34 > 48,1643
x1( A2 ) x4( A4 ) = 165 148,35 = 16, 65 > 48,1643
x1( A3 ) x4( A4 ) = 117, 66 148,35 = 30, 69 > 48,1643

:
,.
NZR().

NZR = 2, 447 17,046 = 41,711

()
x( 1 )1 x( 2 )2 = 115, 25 165 = 49, 75 > 41, 711*
x( 1 )1 x( 3 )3 = 115, 25 112,5 = 2, 75 > 41, 711
x( 2 )2 x( 3 )3 = 165 112,5 = 52,5 > 41, 711*

:
,.
NZR:

68. xi xi +1 ,

Ai , i = 1, 2, 3, 4

( xi i )

xi i 92, 66

xi i 117, 66

xi i 148, 33

A1
A2
A3
A4

165
148,33
117,66
92,66

72,34*
52,67*
24,34
0

47,34
30,67
0

16,67
0

262

69. xi xi +1 ,

B j , j = 1, 2,3
1
2
3

(x )
ij

xi j 112, 5
x j i 115, 25

165
115,25
112,5

52,5*
2,75
0

49,75*
0

:
,
.

3.,,
:

T = Q( , r3 )

VR

Q ( 0,05;6 ) = 4, 90 XVIII,
m=4r3=6.

T = 4,90

581,138
= 68,1985
3

,:

x1( A1 ) x2( A2 ) = 92, 66 165 = 72,34 > 68,1985*

x1( A1 ) x3( A3 ) = 92, 66 117, 66 = 25 > 68,1985
x1( A1 ) x4( A4 ) = 92, 66 148,35 = 55, 69 > 68,1985
x2( A2 ) x3( A3 ) = 165 117, 66 = 47,34 > 68,1985

x2( A2 ) x4( A4 ) = 165 148,35 = 16, 65 > 68,1985

x3( A3 ) x4 ( A4 ) = 117, 66 148,35 = 30, 69 > 68,1985

12.2.

263

,,,
:

T = Q( , r3 )

Q ( 0,05;6 )

VR
m

581,138
T = 4,34
= 52,3117
4
= 4, 34 XVIII ,

m=3r3=6.

,.

x( 1 )1 x( 2 )2 = 115, 25 165 = 49, 75 < 52,3117

x( 1 )2 x( 3 )3 = 115, 25 112,5 = 2, 75 < 52,3117
x( 2 )2 x( 3 )3 = 165 112,5 = 52,5 > 52,3117 *

2 3. 2
,.

),
,:

RA =

S A (m 1)VR
ST VR

9310,9167 (4 1) 581,138
= 0,3941 39, 41%
RA =
19782,917 581,138

,,:

R =

S ( s 1)VR
ST VR

6985,167 (3 1) 581,138
= 0,3032 30,32%
RB =
19782,917 581,138

39,41% , 30,32%
.
.

264

6.5.6. 2 ()

( 2 )

f i , i = 1, 2,..., m

f i ( t ) , i = 1, 2,..., m
:
1.
2.
3.
4..

2 :

0 2 :
2

fi fi (t )

0 =
fi ( z )
i =1
2

f i , i = 1, 2,..., m
f i ( t ) ,i = 1, 2,..., m
m

2 ( , r ) VIII,
, r=m1.
0 2 2 ( , r )

.

:
:

0 2 2( ,r )
0(1)
:
0 2 > 2( ,r )
.

0.
265


f ( 2 )

0 2 2 ( ,r )

F0

02

2 ( , r )

0 2 > 2 ( , r )

6.5.6.1.

f i , i = 1, 2,..., m f i ( t ) , i = 1, 2,..., m .
m>2
:

H 0 :f1=f 2 =...=f i =...=f m

:r=m1
.

150
,30,100
20.
99%
15% ;
45%;40%?

266

:
0 2 :

0
70.

f i f i ( t )
=
fi (t )
i =1

fi fi

f f (t )
0 = i i
fi (t )
2

fi fi

30

150 0,15 = 22,5

7,5

56,25

2,5

100

150 0,45 = 67,5

32,5

1056,25

15,648

200

150 0, 40 = 60

40,0

1600,0

26,666

150

150,0

44,814

f i

(t )

(t )

(t )

:
r=m1=31=2=1% VIII
2
, ( 0,01;2) = 9, 210 , 0

15%;
45%;40%=1%.
,
.

f ( 2 )

99%

F0

0 2 = 44,814
2 (0,05,2) = 9, 210
0

267

.
,300
.
.:1
55 , 2 70 , 3
40 , 4 100 5
35.
=5%
?

20%.

71.

(t )
f i f i
1

55

70

40

100

35
300

0, 20 300 = 60
0, 20 300 = 60
0, 20 300 = 60
0, 20 300 = 60
0, 20 300 = 60
300

fi fi

(t )

fi fi
(t )

25

fi fi (t )

0 =
fi (t )
0,4166

10

100

1,666

20

400

6,666

40

1600

26,666

25
0

625

10,4166
45,8312

r=m1=51=4=5% VIII
2
, ( 0,05;4) = 9, 488 .

0 2 = 45,8312 > 2( 0,05;4) = 9, 488 ,

=5%
.
.

268

f ( 2 )

= 5%
95%

F0

0 2 = 45,8312
2 (0,05,4) = 9, 488

6.5.6.2.

.,
2 .
()

f ij , i = 1, 2 , ...m , j = 1, 2 , ..., k

.
() f ij(t) , i = 1, 2,...m , j = 1, 2,..., k .
0 , f ij(t) ,

i = 1, 2,...m , j = 1, 2,..., k
m

i =1

i =1

f i , f j
:
0:
1:

269

:
m

f ij ( t ) =

fi f j

i =1
m

i =1

f
i =1

j =1

ij

0 2 :

0 =
2

i =1

fij fij (t )

fij (t )
j =1
k

m ,
r=(m1)(k1), VIII
2 ( ,r ) .
0:

: 02 2( ,r ) 0

(1)
: 0 2 > 2( ,r ) 0

,
, 0 2
. (
),
:
02

C=

f
i =1

j =1

ij

+ 02

0C1;
,.

m=,
:
C=

m 1
m

270

300 ,
.0,99.
) ,
.
)

)0
,
.

72.

0,15,0

5,110,0

10,115,0

15,120,0

20,125,0

15

10

10

30

60

23

10

10

15

25

20

80

38

10

20

10

10

20

70

52

15

10

20

15

30

90

40

50

50

60

100

300

f ij ( t ) , i = 1, 2,3, 4; j = 1, 2,3, 4,5

f ij ( t ) =

fi f j
i =1

j =1

f
i =1 j =1

271

ij

f11

(t )

f12 ( t )
f13 ( t )
f14 ( t )
f15 ( t )

40 60
=
=8
300

50 60
=
= 10
300
50 60
=
= 10
300
60 60
=
= 12
300
100 60
=
= 20
300

f 21

(t )

f 22 ( t )
f 23 ( t )
f 24 ( t )
f 25 ( t )

40 80
=
= 10,67
300

50 80
=
= 13,33
300
50 80
=
= 13,33
300
60 80
=
= 16
300
100 80
=
= 26,67
300

40 70
= 9,33
300
50 70
=
= 11,67
300
50 70
=
= 11,67
300
60 70
=
= 14
300
100 70
=
= 23,33
300

40 90
= 12

300
50 90
=
= 15
300
50 90
=
= 15
300
60 90
=
= 18
300
100 90
=
= 30
300

f 31( t ) =

f 41( t ) =

f 32 ( t )

f 42 ( t )

f 33( t )
f 34 ( t )
f 35 ( t )

f 43( t )
f 44 ( t )
f 45 ( t )

73.

( )
ij

f (t )

5
10
5
10
30
10
10
15
25
20
10
20
10
10
20
15
10
20
15
30
300

8
10
10
12
20
10,67
13,33
13,33
16
26,67
9,33
11,67
11,67
14
23,33
12
15
15
18
30
300

ij

f ij f ij ( t )
3
0
5
2
10
0,67
3,33
1,67
9
6,67
0,67
8,33
1,67
4
3,33
3
5
5
3
0
0

fij fij (t )

0 =
fij (t )

fij fij
(t )

9
0
25
4
100
0,4489
11,0889
2,7889
81
44,4889
0,4489
69,3889
2,7889
16
11,0889
9
25
25
9
0
/

1,125
0
2,5
0,333
5
0,04207
0,83187
0,20922
5,0625
1,66812
0,04811
5,9459
0,2389
1,14285
0,4753
0,75
1,666
1,666
0,5
0

0 2 = 29, 20484

r=(m1)(k1)=(41)(51)=12=1%
VIII 2

272

( 0,01;12 )

= 26,217 .

0 2 =29,20484> 2 (0,01;12)=26,217,
=1%
.
.

f ( 2 )

= 1%
99%
x2

F0

0 2 = 29, 20484

2 (0,01;12) = 26, 217

C=

02
m

f +
i =1

j =1

ij

2
0

29,20484
= 0,0887133
300 + 29, 20484

C = 0,297847

C=0,297847
.

273

7.

7.1

.

,
,
j.
,

,
.
:
1. ,
.
2. ()
.

,
.

,

y=f(x)x=f(y).

.


.

,
,
274

()ko
,
.
,
,
.

:
1.
,
.
2.
,

.
3.
().

.
4. ( )
,

275

:
1. ,
2.

7.1.1.

,
.

.:

yc = a + b x

(
).
, ,

. ()
,
y,koja.

.
b
:

I y = na + b x

II xy = a x + b x 2

b
,
.
:

276

1.
;
2.
,
;
3. ,
;
4. , .
.


.
,,

.
,.

7.1.2

.:

Sy =

( y y )
i

.

,
.
, (
)
,
,
.

277

7.2.

.
,
()
.,

,
,
.,

,.,
.
,


,
.
,.

,
.

7.2.1.

.
:
n

r=

( x x )( y y )
i

i =1

( x x ) ( y y )
i =1

()
().

278

:
1. r00,25,
;
2. r 0,25 0,50
;
3. r0,500,75;
4. r0,751;
5. r = 1

.

100.

:
:

(105.)(xi) 25 26 28 26 29 31 33
(i)
6 5 8 7 8 9 8

),
,
(i),
(xi);
);
);
)38105.
)

74.

xi2
yixi
yc
(yiyc)
(yiyc)2
yi2
(xi)
(yi)
5
25
36
625
150
6,11 0,11 0,0121
6
26
25
676
130
6,47
1,47 2,1609
8
28
64
784
224
7,18
0,82
0,6724
7
26
49
676
182
6,47
0,53
0,2809
8
29
64
841
232
7,54
0,46
0,2116
9
31
81
961
279
8,25
0,75
0,5625
8
33
64
1089
264
8,97
0,97 0,9409
51
198
383
5652 1461
/
/
4,8413

279

(
),
.

.

280

yc = a + b x

I y = na + b x

II xy = a x + b x 2

I 51 = 7 a + 198 b / (198)
II1461 = 198 a + 5652 b / ( 7)

10098 = 1386 a + 39204 b

10227 = 1386 a 39564 b

129 = 360 b

129
b=
360

b = 0,358
51 = 7 a + 198 0,358
7 a = 51 70,884
7 a = 19,884
a=

19,884

a = 2,840
:
yc = 2,840 + 0, 358 xi

yc1 = 2,840 + 0,358 (25) = 6,11

yc2 = 2,840 + 0,358 (26) = 6, 47
yc3 = 2,840 + 0,358 (27) = 7,18
yc4 = 2,840 + 0,358 (26) = 6, 47
yc5 = 2,840 + 0,358 (29) = 7,54
yc6 = 2,840 + 0,358 (31) = 8, 25
yc7 = 2,840 + 0,358 (33) = 8,97

281

):

Sy =
Sy =

( y y )
i

n
4,8413
7

S y = 0,832

0,832.
)

yc = 2,840 + 0,358 x
yc = 2,840 + 0,358 (38)

yc = 10, 764
38105.10,764.
)
n

r=

( x x )( y y )
i

i =1

( x x ) ( y y )
i =1

75.
yi
xi
6
25
1,28
1,6384
3,28 10,7584
4,1984
5
26
2,28
5,1984
2,28
5,1984
5,1984
8
7
8

28
26
29

0,72
0,28
0,72

0,5184
0,0784
0,5184

0,28
2,28
0,72

0,0784
5,1984
0,5184

0,2016
5,1984
0,6184

31

1,72

2,9584

2,72

7,3984

4,6784

33

0,72

0,5184

4,72

22,2784

3,3984

51

198

11,4288

51,4288

22,9888

282

yi =

n
xi

51
= 7, 28 7,28kg
7

198
= 28, 28 28,28105
7
n
22,9888
22,9888
r=
=
51, 4288 11, 4288 24, 2439

xi =

r = 0,9482 100

r = 94,82%

7
94,82%()

7.2.2

.
,
.,

.
.
() ,
.
.
: 1,2 3
(12)
3
:

r123 =

r12 r13 r23

(1 r ) (1 r )
2

13

r132 =

(1 r ) (1 r )
2

283

23

r13 r12 r32

12

32

r231 =

r23 r21 r31

(1 r ) (1 r )
2

21

31

r
.

1 +1.

:

r123 2 ; r132 2 ; r2312

,
.

1,23:

C13
C23
C12

; r13 =
; r23 =
1 2
1 3
2 3

r12 =

1+1.

.
. 1, 2, 3
:
n

C12 =

x x
i =1

x1 x2 ; C13 =

x x
1

i =1

x1 x3 ; C23 =

x x
i =1

1,2,3:
n

1 =
2

x
i =1

x1 ; 2 =
2

i =1

284

x2 ; 3 =
2

i =1

x3 2

x2 x3

t/ha,
cm,:

(x1): 4
2
5
8
10
(x2): 609 279 709 859 909
(x3): 24
20 19 37 38

)
)
,,
.
)
,
,.
)
,
.

76.

(x1)
(x2)
4
24
2
20
5
19
8
37
10
38
29
138

a)

(x3)
609
279
709
859
909
3365

(x1)2

(x2)2

(x3)2

16
4
25
64
100
209

576
400
361
1369
1444
4150

370881
77841
502681
737881
826281
2515565

(x1x2) (x1x3)
96
40
95
296
380
907

x1 =

i =1

29
; x1 = 5,8[t ]
5

5,8.
n

x2 =

x
i =1

138
; x2 = 27,6 [cm]
5

285

2436
558
3545
6872
9090
22501

(x2x3)
14616
5580
13471
31783
34542
99992

27,6cm
n

x3 =

x
i =1

3365
; x3 = 673 [kg ]
5

673kg.

C12 =

x x
1

C13 =

i =1

C23 =

x x
2

x2 x3
n
n
n

977
99992
22501
27,6 673
5,8 27,6 C13 =
C12 =
5,8 673 C12 =
5
5
5
C12 = 181,4 160,08 C13 = 4500,2 3903, 4 C12 = 19998, 4 18574,8
C12 = 21,32
C12 = 1423,6
C13 = 596,8
i =1

x1 x2

x1 x3

x1 x3

:
n

1 =
2

x12
i =1

x1

2 =
2

x
i =1

i =1

x2

32 =

n
n
209
4150
12 =
5,82
22 =
27,62
5
5
2
2
1 = 41,8 33,64 2 = 830 761,76

x
i =1

x3 2

n
2515565
12 =
6732
5
2
1 = 503113 452929

12 = 8,16

2 2 = 68,24

12 = 50184

12 = 8,16
= 2,85
1

2 2 = 68,24
= 8,26
2

12 = 50184
= 224,01
1

r12 =

C12
21,32
21,32
=
=
= 0,9056
1 2 2,85 8, 26 23,54

r12=0,905690,56%

.
286

r13 =

C13
596,8
596,8
=
=
= 0,9348
1 3 2,85 224, 01 638, 42

r13=0,934893,48%

r23 =

C 23
1423, 6
1423, 6
=
=
= 0, 7693
2 3 8, 26 224, 01 1850,32

r23=0,769376,93%

)
,,:

r123 =

r12 r13 r23

(1 r )(1 r )
2

13

r123 =

0,9056 0,9348 0,7693

23

(1 0,93482 )(1 0,76932 )

0,9056 0,7191
0,1865
=
(0,1261 0,40817) 0,2268

r123 = 0,8223

r123=0,8223

287

r123 2 = (0,8223) 2 = 0,6762

r123 2 = 0,6762 100

r123 2 = 67,62%

,
67,62% 32,38%
.

)
,
:

r132 =

r13 r12 r32

(1 r )(1 r )
2

12

r132 =

32

0,9348 0,9056 0,7693

(1 0,90562 )(1 0,76932 )

0,9348 0,6966
0,2382
=
(0,1798 0, 4081) 0, 2708

r132 = 0,8796

r132=0,8796
,
,.

r1322 = (0,8796) 2 = 0,7736

r1322 = 0,7736 100

r1322 = 77,36%

,77,36%
22,64%.

288

)
,
,:

r231 =

r23 r21 r31

(1 r )(1 r )
2

21

r231 =

31

0,7693 0,9056 0,9348

(1 0,9056 2 )(1 0,93482 )

0,7693 0,8465
0,0772
=
0,155
(0,1798 0,1261)

r231 = 0,5129

,
,,

r2321 = ( 0,5129) 2 = 0, 2631

r2321 = 0, 2631 100

r2321 = 26,31%

26,31%
73,69%.

7.2.3

.
.
: 1, .

.
34( )=3,5.
,
. Spearman
,:

289

RS = 1

6 di2
i =1

n (n 1)

di,i=1,2,....,n
n

,:Rs>0(:1
2 ) Rs<0 (
:12).
1 +1.
(1 +1),
12.

7
:

I
II III IV V VI VII
21 32 31 20 31 28 20
11 15 15 18 16 17 18

77.

di
di2
(x1) (x2)
x1 x2
I
11
21
1 3 2
4
II
15
32
2,5 7 4,5 20,25
III
15
31
2,5 5,5 3
9
IV
18
20
6,5 1,5 5
25
V
16
31
4 5,5 1,5 2,25
VI
17
28
5 4
1
1
VII
18
20
5,5 1,5 5
25
n=7
/
/
28 28 0 86,5

290

RS = 1

6 d i2
i =1

n ( n 2 1)

6 86,5
519
=
1

=
1

1,5446
RS = 1
7 (7 2 1)
336
RS = 0,5446

K
.
,
, Kendallo
,:
n

W =

12

m2 n

n S i2 ( S i ) 2
i =1

i =1

n n

:
m
n
Si,i=1,2,...,n

,
:
n

W=

n Si2 ( Si ) 2

12

i =1
i =1
n
2
3
m n ( n n) T
i =1

,:
n

T =
i =1

1 k 3
(k k )
12 i =1

10 , 103,
105;:

291

() 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(1) 5
5
7
5
8
10 13 15
18
19
(2) 2
5
6
8
7
8
11 13
15
17
(3) 250 400 500 500 750 800 800 950 1000 1050

Kendello

77.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

5
5
7
5
8
10
13
15
18
19
/

2
2
4
2
5
6
7
8
9
10
55

2
5
6
8
7
8
11
13
15
17
/

1
2
3
5,5
4
5,5
7
8
9
10
55

250
400
500
500
750
800
800
950
1000
1050
/

Si

Si2

1
2
3,5
3,5
5
6,5
6,5
8
9
10
55

4
6
10,5
11
14
18
20,5
24
27
30
165

16
36
110,25
121
196
324
420,25
576
729
900
3428,5

T =
i =1

1
( 33 3) + ( 23 2) + ( 23 2) + ( 23 2) = 3,5
12

12 10 3428,5 1652
W= 2

= 0,95397
3
3 10 (10 10) 3,5

endell W=0,95397
, ,
.

292

293

295

296

297

298

299

300

301

302

303

304

305

306

307

308

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

324

325

1983.

9.

T.W.;
..;
..,
,
.,
1998.
.;
.;
1997.
..;
..,
..;
N.R.,
.;
..,
.,
.,
.,

1971.

2000.

..;
1998.
.;

,
,
,
,

1998.
,

. .;
,
H.;

1998.

1976.
, J.

1996.

,
2000.
.,

2003.

.,

..,

.,
.;

.;
..;
D.;
.;
..,

1993.
,

..;
,

.;
1994.
.;

1991.
,
,

1979.
2000.
2000.

,
,
..;

..,

1980.
,

1987.

1987.
,

.;
I.R.;

1995.

,
1987.

.,
1998.
D.,
1990.

.;

,
,

326

.;
.,

1983.
..;
,

1999.

M.;

USA, 1995.
.;
.,
.;
1998.
..,
.,

,
1971.
,
..,
1999.

..,

.;
.;

.,
R.G.;

1988.
1971.

,
, W.B.

1997.
1988.
R.;
,
J.C.;

1970.
1979.
.;

1991.
.;

,
1981.

R.V.,
W.,

A.T.;

1978.
-

C.;
,
.;

1996.
X.J.;
.;
.,
2007.

1997.
,
1971.
,
.;

1999.
,

327

Odlukom Senata Univerziteta Singidunum, Beogrd, broj 636/08 od 12.06.2008,

ovaj udbenik je odobren kao osnovno nastavno sredstvo na studijskim programima koji
se realizuju na integrisanim studijama Univerziteta Singidunum.

CIP -
,

311
, , 1952 / . : , 2010
( : ). - VIII, 327 :
. , ; 25 cm
1150. - : .
293-325. - : . 326-327.
ISBN 978-86-7912-241-4
a)
COBISS.SR-ID 172842508

2010.
Sva prava zadrana. Ni jedan deo ove publikacije ne moe biti reprodukovan u bilo kom
vidu i putem bilo kog medija, u delovima ili celini bez prethodne pismene saglasnosti
izdavaa.