Michigan 7 Week Seniors Wipeout/2012 Answers 2009 1

Michigan 7 Week Seniors Wipeout/2012 Answers
2009
WIPEOU A!SWE"S
Wipeout Answers.......................................................................................................................................................................1
**Wipeout Frontline**...............................................................................................................................................................3
Wipeout Frontline [1/3]..............................................................................................................................................................4
Ext Universe estru!tion "nevit#$le........................................................................................................................................%
Ext Alien "ntervention.............................................................................................................................................................&
Ext "n'inite Universes..............................................................................................................................................................(
Ext )e#t e#t* +/, -#lue to .i'e.........................................................................................................................................1/
Ext )e#t e#t* .in0s 1 ,e!*nolo23......................................................................................................................................11
Ext Wor4*oles 5olve )e#t e#t*.........................................................................................................................................12
Ext )e#t e#t* 6o4in2 7ow................................................................................................................................................13
Ext Wor4*oles 5olve Extin!tion..........................................................................................................................................14
Ext )e#t e#t* Extin!tion................................................................................................................................................15
A28 )e#t e#t* Won9t )#ppen................................................................................................................................................16
A28 Wor4*oles 7ot Fe#si$le...................................................................................................................................................1%
***Wipeout 5!en#rio Answers***..........................................................................................................................................1&
A28 :revents estru!tion o' :l#nt/Ani4#l .i'e.......................................................................................................................1(
A28 )AA;:..............................................................................................................................................................................2/
A28 )AA;:..............................................................................................................................................................................21
A28 "nerti# We#pons.................................................................................................................................................................22
A28 "nerti# We#pons.................................................................................................................................................................23
A28 ;o<s Fro4 =o< e'ense................................................................................................................................................24
A28 ;o<s Fro4 =o< >''ense.................................................................................................................................................25
A28 F#lse -#!uu4s...................................................................................................................................................................26
A28 ,i4e ,r#vel.......................................................................................................................................................................2%
A28 ,i4e ,r#vel.......................................................................................................................................................................2&
A28 ,i4e ,r#vel 7o ,e!*.....................................................................................................................................................2(
A28 Anti1=r#vit3 We#pons.......................................................................................................................................................3/
A28 Anti1=r#vit3 We#pons.......................................................................................................................................................31
A28 :roton isinte2r#tion We#pons.........................................................................................................................................32
A28 =#44# We#pons...............................................................................................................................................................33
A28 Anti1?#tter We#pons ......................................................................................................................................................34
A28 Anti1?#tter We#pons........................................................................................................................................................35
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tors..........................................................................................................................................................36
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tors..........................................................................................................................................................3%
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tors..........................................................................................................................................................3&
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tors..........................................................................................................................................................3(
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tor @l#!0 )ole "4p#!t............................................................................................................................4/
A28 :#rti!le A!!el#r#tors 5tr#n2elets "4p#!ts.........................................................................................................................41
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tor 5tr#n2elets "4p#!t............................................................................................................................42
A28 :#rti!le A!!eler#tor -#!uu4 "4p#!ts...............................................................................................................................43
A28 =ol<1=ol< 6ollisions "n :#rti!le A!!eler#tion A UniAue ;is0.........................................................................................44
A28 =re3 =oo Frontline.........................................................................................................................................................45
A28 =r#3 =oo "t9s "4possi$le...............................................................................................................................................46
A28 =r#3 =oo "t9s "4possi$le...............................................................................................................................................4%
A28 =r#3 =oo "t9s "4possi$le...............................................................................................................................................4&
A28 =r#3 =oo "t9s "4possi$le...............................................................................................................................................4(
A28 =r#3 =oo "t9s "4possi$le...............................................................................................................................................5/
A28 =r#3 =oo @lue =oo 5olves............................................................................................................................................51
A28 =r#3 =oo Won9t estro3 Universe BWipeout 5pe!i'i!C................................................................................................52
7#no1,e!* =oo<......................................................................................................................................................................53
7#no1,e!* =oo<......................................................................................................................................................................54
7#no1,e!* =oo<......................................................................................................................................................................55
1
2009
7#no1,e!* "nevit#$le...............................................................................................................................................................56
A28 Du#ntu4 -#!uu4 ?inin2.................................................................................................................................................5%
A28 A1.i'e................................................................................................................................................................................5&
A28 A1.i'e................................................................................................................................................................................6/
A28 A1.i'e................................................................................................................................................................................61
A28 ,3pe1"" 6iviliE#tion...........................................................................................................................................................62
A28 5un Will Explo<e...............................................................................................................................................................63
A28 5un Will Explo<e Arti!le BWritten $3 #F #n< :oste< onF G#*ooC......................................................................................64
276 ,e!* @#n 6: 5olven!3....................................................................................................................................................65
**Aliens**................................................................................................................................................................................66
7o Aliens =ener#l.................................................................................................................................................................6%
7o Aliens =ener#l.................................................................................................................................................................6&
7o Aliens =ener#l.................................................................................................................................................................6(
7o Aliens =ener#l.................................................................................................................................................................%/
7o Aliens E#rt*li0e/.i'e !on<itions ;#re.............................................................................................................................%1
7o Aliens E#rt*li0e/.i'e 6on<itions ;#re............................................................................................................................%2
7o Aliens 7o Evi<en!e BFer4i9s :#r#<oxC...........................................................................................................................%4
7o Aliens 7o Evi<en!e BFer4i9s :#r#<oxC...........................................................................................................................%5
7o Aliens A28 ,*eir Evi<en!e Woul<n9t @e 7oti!i$le.........................................................................................................%6
7o Aliens A28 Gou Ant*ropo4orp*iEe.................................................................................................................................%%
7o Aliens A28 We9re A Hoo..................................................................................................................................................%&
7o Aliens A28 ,*e3 )#n2 >ut "n "nterestin2 :#rts >' ,*e =#l#x3......................................................................................%(
7o Aliens A28 ,*e3 +ill ,*e4selves ..................................................................................................................................&/
2
2009
##WIPEOU $"O!%I!E##
&
2009
WIPEOU $"O!%I!E '1/&(
1) I* e+tra,terrestria-s .o e+ist/ the0 are either not 1ene2o-ent or not near10
Mathen0/ 07 BI#son =.F 5pe!i#l A<visor 6enter 'or @iose!urit3F J>u2*t We Worr3 A$out )u4#n Extin!tionKLF 1216F
*ttp8//M24#t*en3.or2/extin!tionet*i!s.*t4C
,*e s#4e !#n $e s#i< o' sentient extr#terrestri#lsF w*oF it 4i2*t $e *ope<F exist or will exist. Even i' we <i< not !#re #$out
preservin2 terrestri#l li'eF t*e #$sen!e o' #pp#rent extr#terrestri#l si2n#ls or !olonies s*oul< worr3 us. ,*e !on<itions
ne!ess#r3 'or supportin2 sentient li'e 4#3 $e *i2*l3 restri!tiveF 4#0in2 su!* li'e # r#re p*eno4enon in t*e 2#l#x3 B?#3rF
1((5N W#r< #n< @rownleeF 2///C. "t is possi$le t*#t *u4#nit3 is #t t*e le#<in2 e<2e o' te!*nolo23 in our re2ion o' sp#!e. "'
soF we s*oul< not #ssu4e sentient li'e elsew*ere will <evelop # !iviliE#tion !#p#$le o' sp#!e !oloniE#tion. Extr#terrestri#ls 4#3 $e
overw*el4e< $3 t*eir own evolution#r3 *ur<les or extin!tion ris0s. "' we #re not #t t*e le#<in2 e<2eF #n< t*ere #re extr#terrestri#ls 4ore #<v#n!e<
t*#n we #reF t*en t*e3 #re pro$#$l3 eit*er not $enevolent or not ne#r$3. >t*erwiseF it is *#r< to '#t*o4 w*3 t*e3 *#ven9t
intervene< Bovertl3 or !overtl3C in E#rt*9s #''#irs to prevent t*e 4#ss o' su''erin2 on t*is pl#net. ,*e presen!e o'
prevent#$le 4iser3 *ere 4ilit#tes #2#inst t*e existen!e o' #n #<v#n!e<F $enevolentF #n< ne#r$3 extr#terrestri#lF #s it
4ilit#tes #2#inst t*e existen!e o' # power'ul #n< $enevolent 2o<. "' # $enevolentF #<v#n!e< extr#terrestri#l !iviliE#tion
existsF t*en it is pro$#$l3 <ist#nt. We woul< w#ste so4e 'r#!tion o' re4#inin2 st#rli2*t i' we w#ite< 'or t*e4 to re#!* t*is
re2ion o' sp#!e. We ou2*t to prevent *u4#n extin!tionF t*enF i' onl3 to <e!re#se t*e opportunit3 !osts !#use< $3 entrop3
B@ostro4F 2//3C.
2) 3estruction o* the uni2erse is ine2ita1-e 4 it5s rapi. e+pansion is unsustaina1-e
O2er10e/ 02 BennisF 7ew Gor0 ,i4esF J,*e Universe ?i2*t .#st ForeverF Astrono4ers 5#3F $ut .i'e ?i2*t 7otL
I#nu#r3 1F *ttp8//0r#uss.'#!ult3.#su.e<u//1E7rev.*t4lC
7owF *oweverF even r. 3son #<4its t*#t #ll $ets #re o''. "' re!ent #strono4i!#l o$serv#tions #re !orre!tF t*e 'uture o' li'e #n< t*e universe will $e '#r $le#0er. "n t*e l#st 'our 3e#rs #strono4ers *#ve
reporte< evi<en!e t*#t t*e exp#nsion o' t*e universe is not Must !ontinuin2 $ut is spee<in2 upF un<er t*e in'luen!e o' # 43sterious
O<#r0 ener23FO #n #nti2r#vit3 t*#t see4s to $e e4$e<<e< in sp#!e itsel'. "' t*#t is true #n< t*e universe 2oes on #!!eler#tin2F
#strono4ers s#3F r#t*er t*#n !o#stin2 2entl3 into t*e ni2*tF <ist#nt 2#l#xies will eventu#ll3 $e 4ovin2 #p#rt so Aui!0l3 t*#t
t*e3 !#nnot !o44uni!#te wit* one #not*er. "n e''e!tF it woul< $e li0e livin2 in t*e 4i<<le o' # $l#!0 *ole t*#t 0ept 2ettin2
e4ptier #n< !ol<er. "n su!* # universeF so4e p*3si!ists s#3F t*e usu#l 4et*o<s o' 'or4ul#tin2 p*3si!s 4#3 not #ll #ppl3.
"nste#< o' new worl<s !o4in2 into viewF ol< ones woul< !onst#ntl3 $e <is#ppe#rin2 over t*e *oriEonF lost 'ro4 view 'orever. 6os4olo2i!#l 0nowle<2e woul< $e 'r#24ente<F wit* <i''erent o$servers
<oo4e< to seein2 <i''erent pie!es o' t*e puEEle #n< no sin2le o$server #$le to 0now t*e '#te o' t*e w*ole universe or #rrive #t # t*eor3 o' p*3si!s t*#t w#s 4ore t*#n #pproxi4#te. O,*ere woul< $e # lot o'
t*in2s #$out t*e universe t*#t we si4pl3 !oul<nPt pre<i!tFO s#i< r. ,*o4#s @#n0sF # p*3si!ist #t t*e Universit3 o' 6#li'orni# #t 5#nt# 6ruE. An< per*#ps 4ost i4port#ntF st#rve< 'in#ll3 o' t*e
ener23 even to !o4plete # t*ou2*t or # !o4put#tionF t*e <o4#in o' li'e #n< intelli2en!e woul< not exp#n<F $ut !onstri!t #n<
eventu#ll3 v#nis* li0e # <win<lin2 e!*o into t*e silen!e o' eternit3. O" 'in< t*e '#te o' # universe t*#t is #!!eler#tin2 'orever
not ver3 #ppe#lin2FO s#i< r. E<w#r< WittenF # t*eorist #t t*e "nstitute 'or A<v#n!e< 5tu<3. ,*#t is #n un<erst#te4entF in t*e view o' r. .#wren!e ?. +r#ussF #n #strop*3si!ist
#t 6#se Western ;eserve Universit3 in 6level#n<F w*o #lon2 wit* *is !olle#2ue r. =lenn . 5t#r04#n *#s re!entl3 trie< to li4n t*e possi$ilities o' t*e '#r 'uture. An #!!eler#tin2 universe
Owoul< $e t*e worst possi$le universeF $ot* 'or t*e Au#lit3 #n< Au#ntit3 o' li'eFO r. +r#uss s#i<F #<<in28 OAll our
0nowle<2eF !iviliE#tion #n< !ulture #re <estine< to $e 'or2otten. ,*erePs no lon21ter4 'uture.O
&) !o i6pact 4 there are an in*inite nu61er o* uni2erses) he .estruction o* one is not signi*icant)
7haikin/ 2002 BAn<rewF E<itor o' 5p#!e #n< 5!ien!eF 5p#!e.!o4F JAre t*ere ot*er universesKL Fe$ru#r3 5F
*ttp8//www.sp#!e.!o4/s!ien!e#strono43/2ener#ls!ien!e/543steriesQuniversesQ/2/2/511.*t4lC
,*e irresisti$leF 4in<1$o22lin2 '#nt#s3 !o4es to Must #$out ever3oneF sooner or l#ter8 W*#t i' ever3t*in2 we 0newF our w*ole universeF w#s Must # spe!0 o' <ust on so4eonePs s*oul<erK >' !ourseF t*#tPs not
#n i<e# #strono4ers t#0e seriousl3. @ut 4#n3 !os4olo2ists #re 2ivin2 serious t*ou2*t to # 4ore s!ienti'i! Auestion8 o ot*er universes existK
At 'irst 2l#n!eF 3ou !#nPt *elp $ut won<er *ow #n3one !oul< *#ve t*e !*utEp#* to #s0 # Auestion li0e t*#t. We !#n $#rel3 'i2ure out this universeF #n< now wePre won<erin2 #$out ot*ersK @elieve it or notF
t*eorists *#ve #n #nswer. An< t*e #nswer #ppe#rs to $eF Ges. As uni4#2in#$le #s t*#t soun<sF it !o4es str#i2*t out o' t*e t*eor3 o'
Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!s/ # set o' 4#t*e4#ti!#l rules t*#t <es!ri$e *ow t*e universe wor0s on t*e s4#llest s!#lesF insi<e #to4s.
Du#ntu4 4e!*#ni!s s#3s t*#t 4#tter #n< ener23 !#n #ppe#r spont#neousl3 out o' t*e v#!uu4 o' sp#!eF t*#n0s to so4et*in2
!#lle< # Au#ntu4 'lu!tu#tionF # sort o' *i!!up in t*e ener23 'iel< t*ou2*t to perv#<e t*e !os4os. 6os4olo2ists s#3 t*#t #
Au#ntu4 'lu!tu#tion 2#ve rise to t*e @i2 @#n2. An< t*e t*in2 #$out Au#ntu4 'lu!tu#tions is t*#t t*e3 !#n *#ppen #n3w*ereF
#n3 ti4e. An< i' our universe w#s $orn out o' # Au#ntu4 'lu!tu#tionF s#3 t*eoristsF t*en itPs possi$le t*#t ot*er Au#ntu4
'lu!tu#tions !oul< *#ve sp#wne< ot*er universes. ,*erePs # re#son so4e t*eorists want ot*er universes to exist8 ,*e3
$elieve itPs t*e onl3 w#3 to expl#in w*3 our own universeF w*ose p*3si!#l l#ws #re Must ri2*t to #llow li'eF *#ppens to exist.
A!!or<in2 to t*e so1!#lle< #nt*ropi! prin!ipleF t*ere #re per*#ps #n in'inite nu4$er o' universesF e#!* wit* its own set o'
p*3si!#l l#ws. An< one o' t*e4 *#ppens to $e ours. ,*#tPs 4u!* e#sier to $elieveF s#3 t*e #nt*ropi! #<vo!#tesF t*#n # sin2le
universe O'ine1tune<O 'or our existen!e.
8
2009
WIPEOU $"O!%I!E '2/&(
8) I* hu6ans are a1out to engage in practices that ha2e the potentia- to .estro0 the uni2erse/ a-iens wi-- inter2ene
ough/ 9: BAllenF :*.. Universit3 o' ,orontoF JW*#t ;ole Will Extr#terrestri#ls :l#3 "n )u4#nit3Ps FutureKL
*ttp8//www.ieti.or2/#rti!les/1(&6.*t4C
"n t*is se!tion we will <is!uss inst#nt prote!tionF w*i!* is o'ten #n e#rl31st#2e t3pe o' *elp. "' # *u4#n to<<ler is #$out to run on to # $us3 street or '#ll into #
!#4p'ireF we inst#ntl3 2r#$ t*e !*il<. Expl#n#tions #n< e<u!#tion !#n w#it 'or # 4o4entR 5i4il#rl3F i' # pro4isin2
!iviliE#tion is #$out to tri22er # nu!le#r *olo!#ust or !olli<e wit* # 2i#nt #steroi<F # te#4 o' extr#terrestri#ls 4#3 t#0e
inst#nt #!tion to #voi< t*e !#t#strop*e. 5u!* extr#terrestri#ls woul< uno$trusivel3 4onitor t*e !iviliE#tion #n< #!t onl3 i' nee<e<F pro$#$l3 extre4el3 r#rel3. ,*e3 woul<
!ontinue provi<in2 inst#nt prote!tion until it is no lon2er nee<e<F eit*er $e!#use severe <#n2ers no lon2er exist or $e!#use t*e !iviliE#tion $e!o4es #$le to !ope on
its own. :uttin2 into pl#!e t*e 4e#ns 'or inst#nt prote!tion will o'ten $e t*e 'irst #n< 4o#t !o44on t3pe o' *elp provi<e< to 'le<2lin2 #n< pro4isin2 !iviliE#tions. "' #n #ll1out nu!le#r w#r
were su<<enl3 #$out to $e2in *ereF 'or inst#n!eF t*e te#4 o' extr#terrestri#l en2ineers #ssi2ne< to E#rt* woul< t#0e inst#nt
#!tion. )#vin2 $een 4onitorin2 e#!* n#tionPs !o<e si2n#l 'or $#nnin2 # nu!le#r #tt#!0F t*e3 4i2*t M#4 t*ose si2n#ls or
i44e<i#tel3 issue t*e !ounter4#n< BO" !*#n2e< 43 4in<OC !o<e. Worl< le#<ers woul< t*us 'in< t*e4selves un#$le to l#un!* t*eir 4issiles. Altern#tivel3F extr#terrestri#ls
wit* *i2*l3 <evelope< ps3!*i! !#p#!ities !oul< pro$#$l3 #voi< t*e l#un!* $3 4onitorin2 t*e 4ent#l pro!esses o' t*e 0e3
worl< le#<ers #n< t*en <ire!tl3 in'luen!in2 t*eir 4in<s Must $e'ore t*e3 woul< ot*erwise or<er t*e 4issiles l#un!*e<. A t*ir<
possi$le 4et*o< is to <e'use t*e 4issiles in 'li2*t or *#ve t*eir n#vi2#tion s3ste4s sen< t*e4 '#r #w#3 'ro4 t*e pl#net. "' #ll o' t*is soun<s too '#r1'et!*e< 'or 3ou to #!!eptF #s0 3oursel' *ow 3our 2re#t1
2r#n<p#rents Bw*en t*e3 were 3our #2eC woul< *#ve re#!te< to to<#3Ps #!tu#l nu!le#rF n#vi2#tion#lF espion#2eF #n< sp#!e !#p#$ilitiesR "' 4e#sures 'or inst#nt prote!tion were in
pl#!eF t*e3 woul< !ert#inl3 $e use< to prevent t*e extin!tion o' # pro4isin2 'le<2lin2 !iviliE#tion. ,*e <#t# !on!ernin2 #
Onu!le#r winterO on E#rt* in<i!#te t*#t even one1'i't* o' our present nu!le#r we#pons !oul< possi$l3 eli4in#te *u4#n0in<
!o4pletel3 wit*in # 3e#r #'ter <eton#tion. ,*e extr#terrestri#l te#4 4i2*tF or 4i2*t notF t#0e #!tion i' t*e3 pre<i!te< t*#t #t
le#st # *#n<'ul o' *u4#n $ein2s #n< so4e $#si! 0nowle<2e woul< survive. O>ur !o4p#ssion is ver3 lon21ter4FO s#i< one extr#terrestri#l #t t*e 4o!0
4eetin2s. OWe !#re #$out t*e ulti4#te <estin#tion o' *u4#nit3F $ut we <o not w#nt to inter'ere wit* t*eir present Mourne3 unless t*e3 #re #$out to eli4in#te #ll *u4#n li'e #n< !ulture.O
;) A2oi.ing nuc-ear war is crucia- *or a transition to a 0pe I ci2i-i<ation
=aku/ 08 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p. 36/1361C
>ur 2r#n<!*il<renF *oweverF will live #t t*e <#wnin2 o' E#rt*Ps 'irst pl#net#r3 !iviliE#tion. "' we <onPt #llow our o'ten $rut#l
instin!t 'or sel'1<estru!tion to !onsu4e usF our 2r#n<!*il<ren !oul< live in #n #2e w*en w#ntF *un2erF #n< <ise#se no lon2er
*#unt our <estin3. For t*e 'irst ti4e in *u4#n *istor3F we possess $ot* t*e 4e#ns 'or <estro3in2 #ll li'e on E#rt* or re#liEin2 # p#r#<ise on t*e pl#net. As # !*il<F " o'ten won<ere< w*#t it woul<
$e li0e to live in t*e '#r 'uture. ,o<#3F " $elieve t*#t i' " !oul< !*oose to $e #live in #n3 p#rti!ul#r er# o' *u4#nit3F " woul< !*oose t*is one. We #re now #t t*e 4ost ex!itin2 ti4e
in *u4#n *istor3F t*e !usp o' so4e o' t*e 2re#test !os4i! <is!overies #n< te!*nolo2i!#l #<v#n!es o' #ll ti4e. [en< p#2e
36/] n#tureF wit* t*e #$ilit3 to 4#nipul#te li'eF 4#tterF #n< intelli2en!e. Wit* t*is #weso4e powerF *oweverF !o4es 2re#t
responsi$ilit3F to ensure t*#t t*e 'ruits o' our e''orts #re use< wisel3 #n< 'or t*e $ene'it o' #ll *u4#nit3. ,*e 2ener#tion now
#live is per*#ps t*e 4ost i4port#nt 2ener#tion o' *u4#ns ever to w#l0 t*e E#rt*. Unli0e previous 2ener#tionsF we *ol< in
our *#n<s t*e 'uture <estin3 o' our spe!iesF w*et*er we so#r into 'ul'illin2 our pro4ise #s # t3pe " !iviliE#tion or '#ll into
t*e #$3ss o' !*#osF pollutionF #n< w#r. e!isions 4#<e $3 us will rever$er#te t*rou2*out t*is !entur3. )ow we resolve
2lo$#l w#rsF proli'er#tin2 nu!le#r we#ponsF #n< se!t#ri#n #n< et*ni! stri'e will eit*er l#3 or <estro3 t*e 'oun<#tions o' #
t3pe " !iviliE#tion. :er*#ps t*e purpose #n< 4e#nin2 o' t*e !urrent 2ener#tion #re to 4#0e sure t*#t t*e tr#nsition to # t3pe "
!iviliE#tion is # s4oot* one.
:) hat5s ke0 to rip the wor6,ho-e an. a2oi. the 1ig *ree<e
=aku 08 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F is!overF J)ow to 5urvive t*e En< o' t*e
UniverseLF 1213F *ttp8//<is!over4#2#Eine.!o4/2//4/<e!/survive1en<1o'1universeC
,o Mourne3 s#'el3 'ro4 t*is universe to #not*erTto investi2#te t*e v#rious options #n< <o so4e tri#l runsT#n #<v#n!e<
!iviliE#tion will nee< to $e #$le to *#rness ener23 on # s!#le t*#t <w#r's #n3t*in2 i4#2in#$le $3 to<#39s st#n<#r<s. ,o
2r#sp t*e !*#llen2eF !onsi<er # s!*e4# intro<u!e< in t*e 1(6/s $3 ;ussi#n #strop*3si!ist 7i0ol#i +#r<#s*ev t*#t !l#ssi'ie<
!iviliE#tions #!!or<in2 to t*eir ener23 !onsu4ption. A!!or<in2 to *is <e'initionF # ,3pe " !iviliE#tion is pl#net#r38 "t is #$le to exploit #ll t*e ener23 '#llin2 on its pl#net 'ro4 t*e sun B1/16 w#ttsC. ,*is
!iviliE#tion !oul< <erive li4itless *3<ro2en 'ro4 t*e o!e#nsF per*#ps *#rness t*e power o' vol!#noesF #n< 4#3$e even !ontrol t*e we#t*er. A ,3pe "" !iviliE#tion !oul< !ontrol t*e ener23 output o' t*e sun
itsel'8 1/26 w#ttsF or 1/ $illion ti4es t*e power o' # ,3pe " !iviliE#tion. erivin2 ener23 'ro4 sol#r 'l#res #n< #nti4#tterF ,3pe ""s woul< $e e''e!tivel3 i44une to i!e #2esF 4eteorsF even supernov#s. A
,3pe """ !iviliE#tion woul< $e 1/ $illion ti4es 4ore power'ul stillF !#p#$le o' !ontrollin2 #n< !onsu4in2 t*e output o' #n entire 2#l#x3 B1/36 w#ttsC. ,3pe """s woul< <erive ener23 $3 extr#!tin2 it 'ro4
$illions o' st#rs #n< $l#!0 *oles. A ,3pe """ !iviliE#tion woul< $e #$le to 4#nipul#te t*e :l#n!0 ener23 B1/1( $illion ele!tron voltsCF t*e ener23 #t w*i!*
sp#!e1ti4e $e!o4es 'o#43 #n< unst#$leF 'rot*in2 wit* tin3 wor4*oles #n< $u$$le1siEe universes. ,*e #liens in "n<epen<en!e #3 woul< Au#li'3 #s # ,3pe """ !iviliE#tion. @3 !ontr#stF ours woul< Au#li'3 #s
# ,3pe / !iviliE#tionF <erivin2 its ener23 'ro4 <e#< pl#ntsToil #n< !o#l. @ut we !oul< evolve r#pi<l3. A !iviliE#tion li0e ours 2rowin2 #t # 4o<est 1 to 2 per!ent per
3e#r !oul< 4#0e t*e le#p to # ,3pe " !iviliE#tion in # !entur3 or soF to # ,3pe "" in # 'ew t*ous#n< 3e#rsF #n< to # ,3pe """
in # *un<re< t*ous#n< to # 4illion 3e#rs. "n t*#t ti4e 'r#4eF # ,3pe """ !iviliE#tion !oul< !oloniEe t*e entire 2#l#x3F even i'
t*eir ro!0ets tr#vele< #t less t*#n t*e spee< o' li2*t. Wit* t*e inevit#$le @i2 FreeEe #t le#st tens o' $illions o' 3e#rs #w#3F #
,3pe """ !iviliE#tion woul< *#ve plent3 o' ti4e to <evelop #n< test #n es!#pe pl#n.
;
2009
WIPEOU $"O!%I!E '&/&(
7) As po-ic06akers/ we 6ust prioriti<e the *ate o* hu6anit0 4 an0 risk o* nuc-ear war shatters the *ra6e o* e+istence
an. shou-. 1e re>ecte. as a .ecision ru-e
Sche-- 92F BIon#t*#n FMourn#listF FA,E >F ,)E EA;,)F 1(&2F p. 1&4.C
,*e <e#t* o' our spe!ies rese4$les t*e <e#t* o' #n in<ivi<u#l in its $oun<lessnessF its $l#n0nessF its re4ov#l $e3on<
experien!eF #n< its ten<en!3 to $#''le *u4#n t*ou2*t #n< 'eelin2F 3et #s soon #s one 4entions t*e *ope o' surviv#l t*e
si4il#rities #re !le#rl3 #t #n en<. For w*ile in<ivi<u#l <e#t* is inevit#$leF extin!tion !#n $e #voi<e<N w*ile ever3 person
4ust <ieF 4#n0in< !#n $e s#ve<. ,*ere'oreF w*ile re'le!tion on <e#t* 4#3 le#< to resi2n#tion #n< #!!ept#n!eF re'le!tion on
extin!tion 4ust le#< to ex#!tl3 t*e opposite response8 to #rous#lF reMe!tionF in<i2n#tionF #n< #!tion. Extin!tion is not
so4et*in2 to !onte4pl#teF it is so4et*in2 to re$el #2#inst. ,o point t*is out 4i2*t see4 li0e st#tin2 t*e o$vious i' it were
not t*#t one t*e w*ole t*e worl<9s re#!tion to t*e peril o' extin!tion *#s $een one o' nu4$ness #n< inerti#F 4u!* #s t*ou2*
extin!tion were #s ines!#p#$le #s <e#t* is. Even to<#3F t*e o''i!i#l response to t*e si!0enin2 re#lit3 $e'ore us is !on<itione<
$3 # 2ri4 '#t#lis4F in w*i!* t*e *ope o' ri<<in2 t*e worl< o' nu!le#r we#ponsF #n< t*us o' survivin2 #s # spe!iesF is #ll $ut
rule< out o' !onsi<er#tion #s Jutopi#nL or Jextre4eL #s t*ou2* it were Jr#<i!#lL 4erel3 to w#nt to 2o on livin2 #n< to
w#nt one9s <es!en<#nts to $e $orn. An< 3et i' one 2ives up t*ese #spir#tions one *#s 2iven up on ever3t*in2. As # spe!iesF
we *#ve #s 3et <one not*in2 to s#ve ourselves. ,*e sl#te o' #!tion is $l#n0. We *#ve or2#niE#tions 'or t*e preserv#tion o'
#l4ost ever3t*in2 in li'e t*#t we w#nt $ut no or2#niE#tion 'or t*e preserv#tion o' 4#n0in<. :eople see4 to *#ve <e!i<e<
t*#t our !olle!tive will is too we#0 or 'l#we< to rise to t*is o!!#sion. ,*e3 see t*e violen!e t*#t *#s s#tur#te< *u4#n
*istor3F #n< !on!lu<e t*#t to pr#!ti!e violen!e is inn#te in our spe!ies. ,*e3 'in< t*e perenni#l *ope t*#t pe#!e !#n $e
$rou2*t to t*e e#rt* on!e #n< 'or #ll # <elusion o' t*e well14e#nin2 w*o *#ve re'use< to '#!e t*e J*#rs* re#litiesL o'
intern#tion#l li'e t*e re#lities o' sel'1interestF 'e#rF *#tre<F #n< #22ression. ,*e3 *#ve !on!lu<e< t*#t t*ese re#lities #re
etern#l onesF #n< t*is !on!lusion <e'e#ts #t t*e outset #n3 *ope o' t#0in2 t*e #!tions ne!ess#r3 'or surviv#l. .oo0in2 #t t*e
*istori!#l re!or<F t*e3 #s0 w*#t *#s !*#n2e< to 2ive #n3one !on'i<en!e t*#t *u4#nit3 !#n $re#0 wit* its violent p#st #n< #!t
wit* 2re#ter restr#int. ,*e #nswer o' !ourseF is t*#t ever3t*in2 *#s !*#n2e<. ,o t*e ol< J*#rs* re#litiesL o' intern#tion#l li'e
*#s $een #<<e< t*e i44e#sur#$l3 *#rs*er new re#lit3 o' t*e peril o' extin!tion. ,o t*e ol< trut* t*#t #ll 4en #re $rot*ers
*#s $een #<<e< t*e ines!#p#$le new trut* t*#t not onl3 on t*e 4or#l $ut #lso on t*e p*3si!#l pl#ne t*e n#tion t*#t pr#!ti!es
#22ression will itsel' <ie. ,*is is t*e l#w o' t*e <o!trine o' nu!le#r <eterren!e t*e <o!trine o' J4utu#l #ssure< <estru!tionL
w*i!* J#ssuresL t*e <estru!tion o' t*e so!iet3 o' t*e #tt#!0er. An< it is #lso t*e l#w o' t*e n#tur#l worl<F w*i!*F in its own
version o' <eterren!eF supple4ents t*e oneness o' 4#n0in< wit* # oneness o' n#tureF #n< 2u#r#ntees t*#t w*en t*e #tt#!0
rises #$ove # !ert#in level t*e #tt#!0er will $e en2ul'e< in t*e 2ener#l ruin o' t*e 2lo$#l e!osp*ere. ,o t*e o$li2#tion to
*onor li'e is now #<<e< t*e s#n!tion t*#t i' we '#il in our o$li2#tion li'e will #!tu#ll3 $e t#0en #w#3 'ro4 usF in<ivi<u#ll3
#n< !olle!tivel3. E#!* o' us will <ieF #n< #s we <ie we will see t*e worl< #roun< us <3in2. 5u!* i4pon<er#$les #s t*e su4
o' *u4#n li'eF t*e inte2rit3 o' t*e terrestri#l !re#tionF #n< t*e 4e#nin2 o' ti4eF o' *istor3F #n< o' t*e <evelop4ent o' li'e on
e#rt*F w*i!* were on!e le't to !onte4pl#tion #n< spiritu#l un<erst#n<in2F #re now #t st#0e in t*e politi!#l re#l4 #n< <e4#n<
# politi!#l response 'ro4 ever3 person. As politi!#l #!torsF we 4ustF li0e t*e !onte4pl#tives $e'ore usF <elve to t*e $otto4
o' t*e worl<F #n<F Atl#s1li0eF we 4ust t#0e t*e worl< on our s*oul<ers.
:
2009
E? 4 U!I@E"SE 3ES"U7IO! I!E@IAA%E
%i*e cou-. not sur2i2e in a coo-ing/ e+pan.ing uni2erse 4 e2en i* it cou-./ -i*e wou-. 1e 6eaning-ess
O2er10e/ 2002 BennisF 7ew Gor0 ,i4esF J,*e Universe ?i2*t .#st ForeverF Astrono4ers 5#3F $ut .i'e ?i2*t 7otL
I#nu#r3 1F *ttp8//0r#uss.'#!ult3.#su.e<u//1E7rev.*t4lC
r. 3son #r2ue< in *is 1(%( p#per t*#t li'e #n< intelli2en!e !oul< survive t*e <esert o' <#r0ness #n< !ol< in # universe t*#t
w#s exp#n<in2 in'initel3 $ut ever 4ore slowl3 $3 #<optin2 ever slower #n< !ooler 'or4s o' existen!e. "ntelli2en!eF !oul<
resi<eF 'or ex#4pleF in t*e p#ttern o' ele!tri!#ll3 !*#r2e< <ust 2r#ins in #n interstell#r !lou<F # situ#tion <es!ri$e< in t*e
1(5% s!ien!e 'i!tion novel O,*e @l#!0 6lou<FO $3 t*e @ritis* #strono4er 5ir Fre< )o3leF w*o <ie< in Au2ust. As #n
or2#nis4 li0e t*e $l#!0 !lou< !oole<F *e #r2ue<F it woul< t*in0 4ore slowl3F $ut it woul< #lw#3s 4et#$oliEe ener23 even
4ore slowl3F so its #ppetite woul< #lw#3s $e less t*#n its output. "n '#!tF r. 3son !on!lu<e<F $3 4#0in2 t*e #4ount o'
ener23 expen<e< per t*ou2*t s4#ller #n< s4#ller t*e !lou< !oul< *#ve #n in'inite nu4$er o' t*ou2*ts w*ile !onsu4in2
onl3 # 'inite #4ount o' ener23. @ut t*ere w#s # *it!*. Even Must t*in0in2 reAuires ener23 #n< 2ener#tes *e#tF w*i!* is w*3
!o4puters *#ve '#ns. r. 3son su22este< t*#t !re#tures woul< *#ve to stop t*in0in2 #n< *i$ern#te perio<i!#ll3 to r#<i#te
#w#3 t*eir *e#t. "n #n #!!eler#tin2 universeF *oweverF t*ere is #n #<<ition#l sour!e o' *e#t t*#t !#nnot $e 2otten ri< o'. ,*e
s#4e !#l!ul#tions t*#t pre<i!t $l#!0 *oles s*oul< explo<e #lso pre<i!t t*#t in #n #!!eler#tin2 universe sp#!e s*oul< $e 'ille<
wit* so1!#lle< )#w0in2 r#<i#tion. "n e''e!tF t*e *oriEon T t*e '#rt*est <ist#n!e we !#n see T loo0s 4#t*e4#ti!#ll3 li0e t*e
sur'#!e o' # $l#!0 *ole. ,*e #4ount o' t*is r#<i#tion is expe!te< to $e in!re<i$l3 s4#ll T !orrespon<in2 to # 'r#!tion o' #
$illiont* o' # $illiont* o' # $illiont* o' # <e2ree #$ove #$solute EeroF $ut t*#t is enou2* to <oo4 sentient li'e. O,*e )#w0in2
r#<i#tion 0ills us $e!#use it 2ives # 4ini4u4 te4per#ture $elow w*i!* 3ou !#nnot !ool #n3t*in2FO s#i< r. +r#uss. >n!e
#n or2#nis4 !ools to t*#t te4per#tureF *e expl#ine<F it woul< <issip#te ener23 #t so4e 'ixe< r#te. O5in!e t*ere is # 'inite
tot#l ener23F t*is 4e#ns # 'inite li'eti4e.O In*init0 on ria- Alt*ou2* r. 3son #2rees wit* t*is 2loo43 view o' li'e in #n
#!!eler#tin2 universeF *e #n< r. +r#uss #n< r. 5t#r04#n #re still #r2uin2 #$out w*et*er li'e is #lso <oo4e< in # universe
t*#t is not #!!eler#tin2F $ut Must exp#n<in2 #n< 2ettin2 slower #n< !ol<er. Du#ntu4 t*eor3F t*e 6#se Western #ut*ors point
outF li4its *ow 'inel3 t*e ener23 'or new t*ou2*ts !#n $e s*#ve<. ,*e t*eor3 <e!rees t*#t ener23 is e4itte< #n< #$sor$e< in
tin3 in<ivisi$le lu4ps !#lle< OAu#nt#.O An3 !o4put#tion 4ust spen< #t le#st t*is 4u!* ener23 out o' # li4ite< suppl3. E#!*
new t*ou2*t is # step <own #n ener23 l#<<er wit* # 'inite nu4$er o' steps. O5o 3ou !#n onl3 *#ve # 'inite nu4$er o'
t*ou2*tsFO s#i< r. +r#uss. O"' 3ou w#nt to st#re #t 3our n#vel #n< not t*in0 #n3 new t*ou2*tsF 3ou wonPt <issip#te ener23F O
*e expl#ine<. @ut t*#t woul< $e # $orin2 w#3 to spen< eternit3. "' li'e is to involve 4ore t*#n t*e etern#l res*u''lin2 o' t*e
s#4e <#t#F *e #n< r. 5t#r04#n s#3F it !#nnot $e etern#l. r. 3sonF *oweverF s#3s t*is #r2u4ent #pplies onl3 to so1!#lle<
<i2it#l li'eF in w*i!* t*ere is # 'ixe< nu4$er o' Au#ntu4 st#tes. 6re#tures li0e t*e $l#!0 !lou<F w*i!* !oul< 2row #lon2 wit*
t*e universeF *e s#i<F woul< *#ve #n in!re#sin2 nu4$er o' Au#ntu4 st#tesF #n< so t*ere woul< #lw#3s $e 4ore run2s o' t*e
l#<<er to step <own. 5o t*e $otto4 nee< never $e re#!*e< #n< li'e #n< t*ou2*t !oul< 2o on in<e'initel3. @ut no$o<3 0nows
w*et*er su!* # li'e 'or4 !#n existF s#i< r. +r#uss.
7
2009
E? 4 A%IE! I!E"@E!IO!
A-iens wi-- inter2ene on earth in or.er to pre2ent -ong ter6 pro1-e6s that cou-. resu-t in e+tinction
ough/ 199: BAllenF :*.. Universit3 o' ,orontoF JW*#t ;ole Will Extr#terrestri#ls :l#3 "n )u4#nit3Ps FutureKL
*ttp8//www.ieti.or2/#rti!les/1(&6.*t4C
)elpin2 us re<u!e Bover ti4eC our worst ris0s #n< <#n2ers is # se!on< t3pe o' potenti#l *elp. "n t*e !*il<*oo< #n#lo23F we
4i2*t $uil< # 'en!e or 2#te so t*#t t*e !*il< !#nnot re#!* t*e $us3 street or we 4i2*t te#!* t*e !*il< to st#3 o'' t*e ro#<.
Extr#terrestri#ls #re ver3 li0el3 to provi<e t*is t3pe o' *elp w*en t*e3 !#nnot *#n<le # 'uture <#n2er !*e#pl3 #n< e#sil3
t*rou2* inst#nt prote!tion. ,*e3 #lso 4#3 provi<e it w*en t*e !iviliE#tion $e!o4es 4#ture enou2* to #!!ept #n< i4ple4ent
extr#terrestri#l su22estions. As *u4#n 3oun2sters8 4#tureF 'or ex#4pleF we 2r#<u#ll3 *elp t*e4 2#in 4ore #n< 4ore o' t*e
0nowle<2eF s0illF #n< responsi$ilit3 ne!ess#r3 'or in<epen<ent s#'et3. ,*ere is less #n< less nee< 'or our !onst#nt
4onitorin2F our #lert re#<iness to interveneF #n< our e''orts to s#'el3 O!*il<1proo'O t*eir *o4e. ,*ree sorts o' #ppro#!*es
4i2*t $e use< to *elp usF over ti4eF re<u!e our worst ris0s #n< <#n2ers8 1. A<v#n!e< extr#terrestri#ls 4#3 per'or4 so4e
invisi$le #!tion8 $e*in< t*e s!enes in or<er to eli4in#te !ert#in ris0s. )u4#n $ein2s 4i2*t $e un#w#re t*#t extr#terrestri#ls
were in'luen!in2 !ert#in eventsF p*eno4en#F 4ir#!lesF o$Me!tsF wi<espre#< $elie's #n< 'eelin2sF or 0e3 <e!isions o' worl<
le#<ers. We 4i2*t not noti!e i' t*e3 ren<ere< inoper#$le t*e <eton#tion or n#vi2#tion s3ste4 o' ever3 nu!le#r we#pon #t t*e
ti4e o' its inst#ll#tion. We 4i2*t not re#liEe w*3 our experi4ents to <evelop one p#rti!ul#rl3 <e#<l3 #2ent 'or $iolo2i!#l
w#r'#re #lw#3s see4e< to '#il. We 4i2*t not 0now t*#t # 2i#nt #steroi< or !o4et #$ruptl3 !*#n2e< !ourse lon2 $e'ore
#strono4ers re#liEe< t*#t it w#s on # !ollision !ourse wit* E#rt*. )i2*l3 #<v#n!e< $ein2s !oul< pro<u!e t*ese v#rious sorts
o' in'luen!e in sever#l w#3s8 ele!troni!#ll3 'ro4 # 2re#t <ist#n!eF <ire!tl3 t*rou2* t*eir presen!e *ere in our 5ol#r 53ste4F
or in<ire!tl3 $3 !*#n2in2 t*e 4in<s or $e*#viour o' !ert#in 0e3 in<ivi<u#ls.
9
2009
E? 4 I!$I!IE U!I@E"SES
here are an in*inate nu61er o* uni2erses 4 this 6itigates their i6pact)
"ees/ 199; BIo*nF #strop*3si!ist #n< !os4olo2istN ;o3#l 5o!iet3 ;ese#r!* :ro'essor #t +in2Ps 6olle2eF 6#4$ri<2eF OAn
Ense4$le o' UniversesO *ttp8//www.e<2e.or2/<o!u4ents/,*ir<6ulture/x16*.15.*t4l
"P4 #lso tr3in2 to $rin2 into # s!ienti'i! !ontext t*e !on!ept o' #n ense4$le o' universesF e#!* wit* <i''erent properties.
,*ese i<e#s #re #sso!i#te< wit* 4#n3 peopleF $ut "Pll 4ention onl3 t*e ;ussi#n p*3si!ist An<rei .in<eF w*o proposes
!*#oti! #n< etern#l in'l#tion T t*#t isF t*e i<e# t*#t new universes !#n sprout 'ro4 ol< onesF or !#n in'l#te into # new
<o4#in o' sp#!eti4e insi<e $l#!0 *oles. )e #n< ot*ers *#ve #r2ue< t*#t our universe is Must one ele4ent in #n in'inite
ense4$le. i''erent universes in t*is ense4$le 4#3 $e 2overne< $3 entirel3 <i''erent p*3si!#l l#wsF nu4$ersF #n<
<i4ensions. 5o4e 4#3 *#ve ver3 stron2 2r#vit#tion#l 'or!eF so4e 4#3 *#ve no 2r#vit3F so4e 4#3 *#ve <i''erent 0in<s o'
p#rti!les. "' t*#tPs # possi$ilit3F t*en t*is !on!ept o' #n ense4$leF w*i!* " pre'er to !#ll # 4et#1 universeF 2ives # s!ienti'i!
$#sis to #nt*ropi! re#sonin2 T t*e i<e# t*#t itPs not # !oin!i<en!e t*#t we 'in< ourselves in # universe w*ere !on<itions #re
so4e*ow #ttune< 'or t*e <evelop4ent o' !o4plexit3. "' #ll possi$le universes 2overne< $3 #ll possi$le l#ws existF t*en
o$viousl3 it o!!#sions no surprise t*#t so4e o' t*e4 will *#ve l#ws o' n#ture t*#t #llow !o4plexit3F #n< t*en itPs no
!oin!i<en!e T #n<F in<ee<F inevit#$le T t*#t # universe li0e ours existsF #n<F o' !ourseF t*#tPs t*e one wePre in. ,*is
su22ests t*e i<e# o' Oo$serv#tion#l sele!tionFO #s it wereF o' universes. " t#0e t*is seriousl3. ,*erePs #n ense4$le o'
universes. "nso'#r #s one !#n put # O4e#sureO T in t*e 4#t*e4#ti!#l sense T on rel#tive nu4$ers o' universesF 4ost will
$e still$ornF in t*e sense t*#t t*ere woul< $e no !o4plexit3 evolvin2 wit*in t*e4. 5o4eF !ontr#riwiseF 4#3 *#ve v#stl3
2re#ter potenti#lities t*#n our ownF $ut t*ese #re o$viousl3 $e3on< our i4#2inin2s.
9
2009
E? 4 BEA 3EAB =/ @A%UE O %I$E
=e0 to 2a-ue to -i*e
San $rancisco 7hronic-e in 508 B+e#3 #vi<sonF 5!ien!e WriterF J:*3si!ists 4ull 3e#rPs top events8 "nstitutePs list o' 4ost
si2ni'i!#nt <evelop4ents <r#ws <e$#teLF e!e4$er 6F *ttp8//www.s'2#te.!o4/!2i1$in/#rti!le.!2iK
'ileU/!/#/2//4/12//6/?7=:3A%2:@1.,.C
,*is 3e#rPs #pp#rent !on'ir4#tion o' t*e #!!eler#tin21universe *3pot*esis t*rille< t*e note< p*3si!ist1#ut*or ?i!*io +#0u o' 6it3 Universit3 o' 7ew
Gor0. OW*#t *#s ex!ite< 4e person#ll3 #$out t*e top stories o' 2//4 w#s !on'ir4#tion t*#t t*e universe is #!!eler#tin2F # st#22erin2 <is!over3 t*#t *#s <eep p*ilosop*i!#l #n< even t*eolo2i!#l
i4pli!#tionsFO +#0u s#i< $3 e14#il. OW*en it w#s 'irst #nnoun!e< # 'ew 3e#rs #2o t*#t t*e universe w#s not Must exp#n<in2F $ut #!tu#ll3 #!!eler#tin2F in # run#w#3 4o<eF t*e worl< o' p*3si!s w#s #2o2F wit*
4out*s *#n2in2 openF $ut <ie1*#r< s0epti!s <e4#n<e< 4ore !on'ir4#tion. )ow !oul< t*e universe $e !#reenin2 out o' !ontrolK ... O,*is *#s p*ilosop*i!#l i4pli!#tionsF
$e!#use it 4e#ns t*#t t*e universe is <3in2F #n< eventu#ll3 t*e @i2 FreeEe will 0ill o'' #ll intelli2ent li'e 'or4s. ,*is *#s
t*eolo2i!#l i4pli!#tionsF $e!#use w*#t is t*e 4e#nin2 o' li'e i' #ll li'e is <oo4e< to 'reeEe $3 t*e l#ws o' p*3si!sK W*#t
0in< o' <eit3 woul< #llow li'eF in #ll its 2lor3F to 'lower in t*e universeF #n< t*en snu'' it out !ruell3 $3 'reeEin2 it to <e#t*K
O:erson#ll3F " $elieve t*#t t*e onl3 *ope 'or intelli2ent li'e to es!#pe t*e <e#t* o' t*e universe is to le#ve t*e universe
itsel'. ... "' our universe one <#3 $e!o4es too !ol< to support li'eF t*en per*#ps we will $e 'or!e< to *#rness t*e 4ost
#<v#n!e< p*3si!s to open up # *ole in sp#!eF tr#vel $etween <i4ensionsF to # 4u!* 3oun2erF w#r4in2 universe.O
10
2009
E? 4 BEA 3EAB %I!=S , E7B!O%OCD
echno-ogica- a.2ance6ent is ke0 to 0pe II an. III ci2i-i<ations 4 on-0 the0 can create inter,uni2ersa- wor6ho-es
to escape at the en. o* the uni2erse
S-ate)co6 in 508 BIi4 )oltF J)ow Will ,*e Universe En<KL ?#r!* 4F *ttp8//www.sl#te.!o4/i</21434/3/entr3/2/(65/%/C
,iplerPs i<e# o' #n in'inite 'roli! Must $e'ore t*e @i2 6run!* w#s se<u!tive to 4eT4ore soF #t le#stF t*#n 3sonPs vision o' # !o44unit3 o' in!re#sin2l3 <ilute @l#!0 6lou<s st#vin2 o'' t*e !ol< in #n etern#l
@i2 6*ill. @ut i' t*e universe is in # run#w#3 exp#nsionF $ot* #re pipe <re#4s. ,*e onl3 w#3 to survive in t*e lon2 run is to 2et t*e *ell out. Get *ow <o
3ou es!#pe # <3in2 universe i'T#s little Alv3 5in2er pointe< outTt*e universe is ever3t*in2K A 4#n w*o !l#i4s to see #n
#nswer to t*is Auestion is ?i!*io +#0u. A t*eoreti!#l p*3si!ist #t 6it3 6olle2e in 7ew Gor0F +#0u loo0s #n< t#l0s # $it li0e
t*e !*#r#!ter 5ulu on 5t#r ,re0. B)e !#n $e seen in t*e re!ent ?i!*#el Apte< 'il4 #$out 2re#t s!ientistsF ?e #n< "s##!
7ewton.C )e is not t*e le#st $it worrie< #$out t*e '#te o' t*is universe. O"' 3our s*ip is sin0in2FO *e s#i< to 4eF Ow*3 not 2et
# li'e$o#t #n< le#veKO We e#rt*lin2s !#nPt <o t*is Must 3etF +#0u o$serve<. ,*#t is $e!#use we #re # 4ere ,3pe 1
!iviliE#tionF #$le to 4#rs*#l t*e ener23 onl3 o' # sin2le pl#net. @ut eventu#ll3F #ssu4in2 # re#son#$le r#te o' e!ono4i!
2rowt* #n< te!*nolo2i!#l pro2ressF we will 2r#<u#te to $ein2 # ,3pe 2 !iviliE#tionF !o44#n<in2 t*e ener23 o' # st#rF #n<
t*en!e to $ein2 # ,3pe 3 !iviliE#tionF #$le to su44on t*e ener23 o' #n entire 2#l#x3. ,*en sp#!e1ti4e itsel' will $e our
pl#3t*in2. WePll *#ve t*e power to open up # Owor4*oleO t*rou2* w*i!* we !#n slip into # $r#n< new universe. O>'
!ourseFO +#0u #<<e<F Oit 4#3 t#0e #s lon2 #s 1//F/// 3e#rs 'or su!* # ,3pe 3 !iviliE#tion to <evelopF $ut t*e universe wonPt
st#rt 2ettin2 re#ll3 !ol< 'or trillions o' 3e#rs.O ,*ere is one ot*er t*in2 t*#t t*e $ein2s in su!* # !iviliE#tion will nee<F +#0u
stresse< to 4e8 # uni'ie< t*eor3 o' p*3si!sF one t*#t woul< s*ow t*e4 *ow to st#$iliEe t*e wor4*ole so it <oesnPt <is#ppe#r
$e'ore t*e3 !#n 4#0e t*eir es!#pe. ,*e !losest t*in2 we *#ve to t*#t nowF superstrin2 t*eor3F is so <i''i!ult t*#t no one Bwit* t*e possi$le ex!eption o' E< WittenC 0nows *ow to 2et it
to wor0. +#0u w#snPt t*e le#st $it 2loo43 t*#t t*e universe 4i2*t $e <3in2. O"n '#!tFO *e s#i<F O"P4 in # st#te o' ex*il#r#tionF $e!#use t*is woul< 'or!e usF re#ll3 'or!e usF to !r#!0 superstrin2 t*eor3. :eople
s#3F PW*#t *#s superstrin2 t*eor3 <one 'or 4e l#tel3K )#s it 2iven 4e $etter !#$le ,- re!eptionKP W*#t " tell t*e4 is t*#t superstrin2 t*eor3Tor w*#tever t*e 'in#lF uni'ie< t*eor3 o'
p*3si!s turns out to $eT!oul< $e our one #n< onl3 *ope 'or survivin2 t*e <e#t* o' t*is universe.O
Bu6ongous ato6 s6ashers are necessar0 to achie2e p-ank energ0 an. open a wor6ho-e
=aku in E8 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p. 33/1332C
)ow !#n we $uil< # 4#!*ine !#p#$le o' le#vin2 our universeF 2iven unli4ite< #!!ess to *i2* te!*nolo23K At w*#t point !#n
we *ope to *#rness t*e power o' t*e :l#n!0 ener23K @3 t*e ti4e # !iviliE#tion *#s #tt#ine< t3pe """ st#tusF it #lre#<3 *#s t*e
power to 4#nipul#te t*e :l#n!0 ener23F $3 <e'inition. 5!ientists woul< $e #$le to pl#3 wit* wor4*oles #n< #sse4$le
enou2* ener23 to open *oles in sp#!e #n< ti4e. ,*ere #re sever#l w#3s in w*i!* t*is 4i2*t $e <one $3 #n #<v#n!e<
!iviliE#tion. As " 4entione< e#rlierF our universe 4#3 $e # 4e4$r#ne wit* # p#r#llel universe Must # 4illi4eter 'ro4 oursF
'lo#tin2 in *3persp#!e. "' soF t*en t*e .#r2e )#<ron 6olli<er 4#3 <ete!t it wit*in t*e next sever#l 3e#rs. @3 t*e ti4e we
#<v#n!e to # t3pe " !iviliE#tionF we 4i2*t even *#ve t*e te!*nolo23 to explore t*e n#ture o' t*is nei2*$orin2 universe. 5o
t*e !on!ept o' 4#0in2 !ont#!t wit* # p#r#llel universe 4#3 not $e su!* # '#r'et!*e< i<e#. @ut let us #ssu4e t*e worst !#seF
t*#t t*e ener23 #t w*i!* Au#ntu4 2r#vit#tion#l e''e!ts #rise is t*e :l#n!0 ener23F w*i!* is # Au#<rillion ti4es 2re#ter t*#n
t*e ener23 o' t*e .)6. ,o explore t*e :l#n!0 ener23F # t3pe """ !iviliE#tion woul< *#ve to !re#te #n #to4 s4#s*er o' stell#r
proportions. "n #to4 s4#s*ersF or p#rti!le #!!eler#torsF su$#to4i! p#rti!les tr#vel <own # n#rrow tu$e. As ener23 is inMe!te< into t*e tu$in2F t*e p#rti!les #re #!!eler#te< to *i2* ener2ies. "' we use
*u2e 4#2nets to $en< t*e p#rti!lesP p#t* into # l#r2e [en< p#2e 33/] !ir!leF t*en p#rti!les !#n $e #!!eler#te< to trillions o' ele!tron volts o' ener23. ,*e 2re#ter t*e r#<ius o' t*e !ir!leF t*e 2re#ter t*e ener23 o'
t*e $e#4. ,*e .)e *#s # <i#4eter o' 2% 0ilo4etersF w*i!* is pus*in2 t*e li4it o' t*e ener23 #v#il#$le to # t3pe /.% !iviliE#tion. @ut 'or # t3pe """ !iviliE#tionF t*e possi$ilit3
opens up o' 4#0in2 #n #to4 s4#s*er t*e siEe o' # sol#r s3ste4 or even # st#r s3ste4. "t is !on!eiv#$le t*#t #n #<v#n!e<
!iviliE#tion 4i2*t 'ire # $e#4 o' su$#to4i! p#rti!les into outer sp#!e #n< #!!eler#te t*e4 to t*e :l#n!0 ener23. As we
re!#llF wit* t*e new 2ener#tion o' l#ser p#rti!le #!!eler#torsF wit*in # 'ew <e!#<es p*3si!ists 4i2*t $e #$le to !re#te #
t#$letop #!!eler#tor !#p#$le o' #!*ievin2 2// =e- B2// $illion ele!tron voltsC over # <ist#n!e o' # 4eter. @3 st#!0in2 t*ese
t#$letop #!!eler#tors one #'ter t*e ot*erF it is !on!eiv#$le t*#t one !oul< #tt#in ener2ies #t w*i!* sp#!e1ti4e $e!o4es
unst#$le. "' we #ssu4e t*#t 'uture #!!eler#tors !#n $oost p#rti!les onl3 $3 2// =e- per 4eterF w*i!* is # !onserv#tive
#ssu4ptionF we woul< nee< # p#rti!le #!!eler#tor 1/ li2*t13e#rs lon2 to re#!* t*e :l#n!0 ener23. Alt*ou2* t*is is
pro*i$itivel3 l#r2e 'or #n3 t3pe " or "" !iviliE#tionF it is well wit*in t*e #$ilit3 o' # t3pe """ !iviliE#tion. ,o $uil< su!* #
2#r2#ntu#n #to4 s4#s*erF # t3pe """ !iviliE#tion 4i2*t eit*er $en< t*e p#t* o' t*e $e#4 into # !ir!leF t*ere$3 s#vin2
!onsi<er#$le sp#!eF or le#ve t*e p#t* stret!*e< out in # line t*#t exten<s well p#st t*e ne#rest st#r.
11
2009
E? 4 WO"MBO%ES SO%@E BEA 3EAB
Wor6ho-es can 1e use. to escape our uni2erse
=aku in E8 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p. 3/513/%C
,*e eventu#l <isinte2r#tion o' our universe into # li'eless 4ist o' [en< p#2e 3/5] ele!tronsF neutrinosF #n< p*otons see4s to 'oretell t*e ulti4#te <oo4 o' #ll intelli2ent li'e. >n # !os4i! s!#leF we see *ow
'r#2ile #n< tr#nsitor3 li'e is. ,*e er# w*en li'e is #$le to 'louris* is !on!entr#te< in # ver3 n#rrow $#n<F # 'leetin2 perio< in t*e li'e o' t*e st#rs t*#t li2*t up t*e ni2*t s03. "t see4s i4possi$le
'or li'e to !ontinue #s t*e universe #2es #n< !ools. ,*e l#ws o' p*3si!s #n< t*er4o<3n#4i!s #re Auite !le#r8 i' t*e exp#nsion
o' t*e universe !ontinues to #!!eler#te in # run#w#3 4o<eF intelli2en!e #s we 0now it !#nnot ulti4#tel3 survive. @ut #s t*e
te4per#ture o' t*e universe !ontinues to <rop over t*e t*eor3 is so !ru!i#ll3 <epen<ent on t*e !re#tion o' t*e '#lse v#!uu4F
=ut* *#s won<ere< i' so4e #<v#n!e< eonsF !#n #n #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tion tr3 to s#ve itsel'K @3 4#rs*#lin2 #ll its te!*nolo23F
#n< t*e te!*nolo23 o' #n3 ot*er !iviliE#tions t*#t 4#3 exist in t*e universeF !#n it es!#pe t*e inevit#$ilit3 o' t*e $i2 'reeEeK
@e!#use t*e r#te #t w*i!* t*e st#2es o' t*e universe evolve is 4e#sure< in $illions to trillions o' 3e#rsF t*ere is plent3 o'
ti4e 'or #n in<ustriousF !lever !iviliE#tion to #tte4pt to 4eet t*ese !*#llen2es. Alt*ou2* it is s*eer spe!ul#tion to i4#2ine w*#t 0in<s o' te!*nolo2ies #n
#<v#n!e< !iviliE#tion 4#3 <evise to prolon2 its existen!eF one !#n use t*e 0nown l#ws o' p*3si!s to <is!uss t*e $ro#< options t*#t 4#3 $e
#v#il#$le to t*e4 $illions o' 3e#rs 'ro4 now. :*3si!s !#nnot tell us w*#t spe!i'i! pl#ns #n #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tion 4#3 #<optF $ut it 4i2*t tell us w*#t t*e r#n2e o' p#r#4eters #re
'or su!* #n es!#pe. ,o #n en2ineerF t*e 4#in pro$le4 in le#vin2 t*e universe is w*et*er we *#ve su''i!ient resour!es to $uil< #
4#!*ine t*#t !#n per'or4 su!* # <i''i!ult 'e#t. @ut to # p*3si!istF t*e 4#in pro$le4 is <i''erent8 w*et*er t*e l#ws o' p*3si!s
#llow 'or t*e existen!e o' t*ese 4#!*ines in t*e 'irst pl#!e. :*3si!ists w#nt # Oproo' o' prin!ipleO 1we w#nt to s*ow t*#tF i' 3ou *#< su''i!ientl3 #<v#n!e<
te!*nolo23F #n es!#pe into #not*er universe woul< $e possi$le #!!or<in2 to t*e l#ws o' p*3si!s. W*et*er we *#ve su''i!ient resour!es is # lesserF pr#!ti!#l <et#il
t*#t *#s to $e le't 'or !iviliE#tions $illions o' 3e#rs in t*e 'uture t*#t #re '#!in2 t*e $i2 'reeEe. A!!or<in2 to Astrono4er
;o3#l 5ir ?#rtin ;eesF OWor4*olesF extr# <i4ensionsF #n< Au#ntu4 !o4puters open up spe!ul#tive s!en#rios [en< p#2e
3/6] t*#t !oul< tr#ns'or4 our entire universe eventu#ll3 into # Vlivin2 !os4os.9L
Bu6ans in the *uture can use -asers to create 1a10 uni2erses an. escape heat .eath
=aku in E8 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p. 32%133/C
5o '#rF we *#ve #ssu4e< t*#t it 4i2*t $e possi$le to p#ss t*rou2* # $l#!0 *ole. 7ow letPs #ssu4e t*e reverseF t*#t $l#!0
*oles #re too unst#$le #n< too 'ull o' let*#l r#<i#tion. >ne 4i2*t t*en tr3 #n even 4ore <i''i!ult p#t*8 to !re#te # $#$3
universe. ,*e !on!ept o' #n #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tion !re#tin2 #n es!#pe *#t!* to #not*er universe *#s intri2ue< p*3si!ists li0e
Al#n =ut*. @e!#use t*e in'l#tion#r3 !iviliE#tion 4i2*t #rti'i!i#ll3 !re#te # '#lse v#!uu4 #n< !re#te # $#$3 universe in t*e
l#$or#tor3. At 'irstF t*e i<e# o' !re#tin2 # universe see4s preposterous. A'ter #llF #s =ut* points outF to !re#te our universeF
3ou woul< nee< 1/&( p*otonsF 1/&( ele!tronsF 1/&( positronsF 1/&( neutrinosF 1/&( #ntineutrinosF 1/&( protonsF #n< 1/&(
neutrons. W*ile t*is t#s0 soun<s <#untin2F =ut* re4in<s us t*#t #lt*ou2* t*e 4#tter/ener23 !ontent o' # universe is Auite
l#r2eF it is $#l#n!e< $3 t*e ne2#tive ener23 <erive< 'ro4 2r#vit#tion. ,*e tot#l net 4#tter/ener23 4#3 $e #s little #s #n
oun!e. =ut* !#utionsF Ooes t*is 4e#n t*#t t*e l#ws o' p*3si!s trul3 en#$le us to !re#te # new universe #t willK "' we trie<
to !#rr3 out t*is re!ipeF un'ortun#tel3F we woul< i44e<i#tel3 en!ounter #n #nno3in2 sn#28 sin!e # sp*ere o' '#lse v#!uu4
1/126 !enti4eters #!ross *#s # 4#ss o' one oun!eF its <ensit3 is # p*eno4en#l 1/&/ 2r#4s per !u$i! !enti4eterR ... "' t*e
4#ss o' t*e entire o$serve< universe were !o4presse< to '#lse1v#!uu4 <ensit3F it woul< 'it in # volu4e s4#ller t*#n #n
#to4RO ,*e '#lse v#!uu4 woul< $e t*e tin3 re2ion o' sp#!e1ti4e w*ere #n inst#$ilit3 #rises #n< # ri't o!!urs in sp#!eti4e. "t
4#3 onl3 t#0e # 'ew oun!es o' 4#tter wit*in t*e '#lse v#!uu4 to !re#te # $#$3 universeF $ut t*is tin3 #4ount o' 4#tter *#s
to $e !o4presse< <own to #n #strono4i!#ll3 s4#ll <ist#n!e. [en< p#2e 32%] ,*ere 4#3 $e still #not*er w#3 to !re#te # $#$3
universe. >ne 4i2*t *e#t up # s4#ll re2ion o' sp#!e to 1/2( <e2rees +F #n< t*en r#pi<l3 !ool it <own. At t*is te4per#tureF
it is !onMe!ture< t*#t sp#!eti4e $e!o4es unst#$leN tin3 $u$$le1universes woul< $e2in to 'or4F #n< # '#lse v#!uu4 4i2*t $e
!re#te<. ,*ese tin3 $#$3 universesF w*i!* 'or4 #ll t*e ti4e $ut #re s*ort1live<F 4#3 $e!o4e re#l universes #t t*#t
te4per#ture. ,*is p*eno4enon is #lre#<3 '#4ili#r wit* or<in#r3 ele!tri! 'iel<s. BFor ex#4pleF i' we !re#te # l#r2e enou2* ele!tri! 'iel<F t*e virtu#l ele!tron1#nti ele!tron p#irs t*#t !onst#ntl3 pop out
in #n< out o' t*e v#!uu4 !#n su<<enl3 $e!o4e re#lF #llowin2 t*ese p#rti!les to sprin2 into existen!e. ,*usF !on!entr#te< ener23 in e4pt3 sp#!e !#n tr#ns'or4 virtu#l p#rti!les into re#l ones. 5i4il#rl3F i' we
#ppl3 enou2* ener23 #t # sin2le pointF it is t*eoriEe< t*#t virtu#l $#$3 universes 4#3 sprin2 into existen!eF #ppe#rin2 out o' now*ere.C Assu4in2 t*#t su!* #n uni4#2in#$le <ensit3 or te4per#ture !#n $e
#!*ieve<F t*e 'or4#tion o' # $#$3 universe 4i2*t loo0 #s 'ollows. "n our universeF power'ul l#ser $e#4s #n< p#rti!le $e#4s 4#3 $e use< to !o4press
#n< *e#t # tin3 #4ount o' 4#tter to '#nt#sti! ener2ies #n< te4per#tures. We woul< never see t*e $#$3 universe #s it $e2ins
to 'or4F sin!e it exp#n<s on t*e Oot*er si<eO o' t*e sin2ul#rit3F r#t*er t*#n in our universe. ,*is #ltern#te $#$3 universe
woul< potenti#ll3 in'l#te in *3persp#!e vi# its own #nti2r#vit3 'or!e #n< O$u<O o'' our universe. We willF t*ere'oreF never
see # new universe is 'or4in2 on t*e ot*er si<e o' t*e sin2ul#rit3. @ut # wor4*ole woul<F li0e #n u4$ili!#l !or<F !onne!t us
wit* t*e $#$3 universe.
12
2009
E? 4 BEA 3EAB 7OMI!C !OW
he e+pansion o* the uni2erse is 1eing .ri2en 10 esca-ating antigra2it0 *orces an. wi-- .estro0 a-- -i*e
=aku in E8 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p. 2&&12&(C
5!ientistsF '#!in2 t*e !ol< l#ws o' p*3si!sF 4ust now !on'ront si4il#r t*e4es. )#r< <#t#F r#t*er t*#n 43t*olo23 w*ispere<
#roun< !#4p'iresF <i!t#tes *ow s!ientists view t*e 'in#l en< o' t*e universe. @ut si4il#r t*e4es 4#3 prev#il in t*e s!ienti'i!
worl<. A4on2 t*e solutions o' EinsteinPs eAu#tions we #lso see possi$le 'utures involvin2 'reeEin2 !ol<F 'ireF !#t#strop*eF
#n< #n en< to t*e universe. @ut will t*ere $e # 'in#l re$irt*K A!!or<in2 to t*e pi!ture e4er2in2 'ro4 t*e W?A: s#telliteF #
43sterious #nti2r#vit3 'or!e is #!!eler#tin2 t*e exp#nsion o' t*e universe. "' it !ontinues 'or $illions or trillions o' 3e#rsF t*e
universe will inevit#$l3 re#!* # $i2 'reeEe si4il#r to t*e $liEE#r< 'oretellin2 t*e twili2*t o' t*e 2o<sF en<in2 #ll li'e #s we
0now it. ,*is #nti2r#vit3 'or!e pus*in2 t*e universe #p#rt is proportion#l to t*e volu4e o' t*e universe. ,*usF t*e l#r2er t*e
universe $e!o4esF t*e 4ore #nti2r#vit3 t*ere is to pus* t*e 2#l#xies #p#rtF w*i!* in turn in!re#ses t*e volu4e o' t*e
universe. ,*is vi!ious !3!le repe#ts itsel' en<lessl3F until t*e universe enters # run#w#3 4o<e #n< 2rows exponenti#ll3 '#st.
Eventu#ll3F t*is will 4e#n t*#t t*irt31six 2#l#xies in t*e lo!#l 2roup o' 2#l#xies will 4#0e up t*e entire visi$le universeF #s
$illions o' nei2*$orin2 2#l#xies spee< p#st our event *oriEon. Wit* t*e sp#!e $etween 2#l#xies exp#n<in2 '#ster t*#n t*e
spee< o' li2*tF l t*e universe will $e!o4e terri$l3 lonel3. ,e4per#tures will plun2eF #s t*e re4#inin2 ener23 is spre#<
t*inner #n< t*inner #!ross sp#!e. As te4per#tures <rop to ne#r #$solute EeroF intelli2ent spe!ies will *#ve to '#!e t*eir
ulti4#te '#te8 'reeEin2 to <e#t*.
1&
2009
E? 4 WO"MBO%ES SO%@E E?I!7IO!
Our -ast hope wi-- 1e to sen. nanotechno-og0 through a wor6ho-e to recreate ci2i-i<ation in a .i**erent uni2erse
=aku in E8 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p. 33&1341C
As 5tep*en )#w0in2 *#s s#i<F O"t see4s ... t*#t Au#ntu4 t*eor3 #llows ti4e tr#vel on # 4i!ros!opi! $#sis.O "' )#w0in2 is
ri2*tF 4e4$ers o' #n #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tion !oul< <e!i<e to #lter t*eir p*3si!#l $ein2 into so4et*in2 t*#t woul< survive t*e
#r<uous Mourne3 $#!0 in ti4e or to #not*er universeF 4er2in2 !#r$on wit* sili!on #n< re<u!in2 t*eir !ons!iousness <own to
pure in'or4#tion. "n t*e 'in#l #n#l3sisF our !#r$on1$#se< $o<ies 4#3 well $e too 'r#2ile to en<ure t*e p*3si!#l *#r<s*ip o' #
Mourne3 o' t*is 4#2nitu<e. F#r in t*e 'utureF we 4#3 $e #$le to 4er2e our !ons!iousness wit* our ro$ot !re#tionsF usin2
#<v#n!e< 7A en2ineerin2F n#note!*nolo23F #n< [en< p#2e 33(] ro$oti!s. ,*is 4#3 soun< $iE#rre $3 to<#3Ps st#n<#r<sF
$ut # !iviliE#tion $illions to trillions o' 3e#rs in t*e 'uture 4i2*t 'in< it t*e onl3 w#3 to survive. ,*e3 4i2*t nee< to 4er2e
t*eir $r#ins #n< person#lities <ire!tl3 into 4#!*ines. ,*is !oul< $e <one in sever#l w#3s. >ne !oul< !re#te # sop*isti!#te<
so'tw#re pro2r#4 t*#t w#s #$le to <upli!#te #ll our t*in0in2 pro!essesF so t*#t it *#< # person#lit3 i<enti!#l to ours. ?ore
#4$itious is t*e pro2r#4 #<vo!#te< $3 )#ns ?or#ve! o' 6#rne2ie1?ellon Universit3. )e !l#i4s t*#tF in t*e '#r 'utureF we
4#3 $e #$le to repro<u!eF neuron 'or neuronF t*e #r!*ite!ture o' our $r#ins onto sili!on tr#nsistors. E#!* neur#l !onne!tion
in t*e $r#in woul< $e repl#!e< $3 # !orrespon<in2 tr#nsistor t*#t woul< <upli!#te t*e neuronPs 'un!tion insi<e # ro$ot.
@e!#use t*e ti<#l 'or!es #n< r#<i#tion 'iel<s woul< li0el3 $e intenseF 'uture !iviliE#tions woul< *#ve to !#rr3 t*e #$solute
4ini4u4 o' 'uelF s*iel<in2F #n< nutrients ne!ess#r3 to re1!re#te our spe!ies on t*e ot*er si<e o' # wor4*ole. Usin2
n#note!*nolo23F it 4i2*t $e possi$le to sen< 4i!ros!opi! !*#ins #!ross t*e wor4*ole insi<e # <evi!e no wi<er t*#n # !ell.
"' t*e wor4*ole w#s ver3 s4#llF on t*e s!#le o' #n #to4F s!ientists woul< *#ve to sen< l#r2e n#notu$es 4#<e o' in<ivi<u#l
#to4sF en!o<e< wit* v#st Au#ntities o' in'or4#tion su''i!ient to re1!re#te t*e entire spe!ies on t*e ot*er si<e. "' t*e
wor4*ole w#s onl3 t*e siEe o' # su$#to4i! p#rti!leF s!ientists woul< *#ve to <evise # w#3 to sen< nu!lei #!ross t*e
wor4*ole t*#t woul< 2r#$ ele!trons on t*e ot*er si<e #n< re!onstru!t t*e4selves into #to4s #n< 4ole!ules. "' # wor4*ole
w#s even s4#ller t*#n t*#tF per*#ps l#ser $e#4s 4#<e o' W r#3s or 2#44# r#3s o' s4#ll w#velen2t* !oul< $e use< to sen<
sop*isti!#te< !o<es t*rou2* t*e wor4*oleF 2ivin2 instru!tions on *ow to re!onstru!t !iviliE#tion on t*e ot*er si<e. ,*e 2o#l
o' su!* # tr#ns4ission woul< $e to !onstru!t # 4i!ros!opi! On#no$otO on t*e ot*er si<e o' t*e wor4*oleF w*ose 4ission
woul< $e to 'in< # suit#$le environ4ent in w*i!* to re2ener#te our !iviliE#tion. @e!#use it woul< $e !onstru!te< on #n
#to4i! s!#leF it woul< not nee< *u2e $ooster ro!0ets or # l#r2e #4ount o' 'uel to 'in< # suit#$le pl#net. "n '#!tF it !oul<
e''ortlessl3 #ppro#!* li2*t1spee< [en< p#2e 34/] $e!#use it is rel#tivel3 e#s3 to sen< su$#to4i! p#rti!les to ne#r li2*tspee<
usin2 ele!tri! 'iel<s. AlsoF it woul< not nee< li'e support or ot*er !lu4s3 pie!es o' *#r<w#reF sin!e t*e 4#in !ontent o' t*e
n#no$ot is t*e pure in'or4#tion ne!ess#r3 to re2ener#te t*e r#!e. >n!e t*e n#no$ot *#< 'oun< # new pl#netF it woul< !re#te
# l#r2e '#!tor3 usin2 t*e r#w 4#teri#ls #lre#<3 #v#il#$le on t*e pl#net to $uil< 4#n3 repli!#s o' itsel' #n< 4#0e # l#r2e
!lonin2 l#$or#tor3. ,*e ne!ess#r3 7A seAuen!es !oul< $e pro<u!e< in t*is l#$or#tor3 #n< t*en inMe!te< into !ells to $e2in
t*e pro!ess o' re2ener#tin2 w*ole or2#nis4s #n< eventu#ll3 t*e entire spe!ies. ,*ese !ells in t*e l#$ woul< t*en $e 2rown
into 'ull3 #<ult $ein2sF wit* t*e 4e4or3 #n< person#lit3 o' t*e ori2in#l *u4#n pl#!e< into t*e $r#in.
18
2009
E? 4 BEA 3EAB E?I!7IO!
Beat .eath is co6ing an. wi-- .estro0 e2er0thing
Firko2iG/ 502 B?il#n ?.F #strop*3si!istF JF>;E6A5, F>; ,)E 7EW, E>78 A::."E 6>5?>.>=G A7 ,)E
.>7=1,E;? FA,E >F "7,E.."=E7, @E"7=5FL #!!esse< usin2 >Alster on /%12/1/&C
,*e outloo0 t*is p#r#<i24 su22ests 'or t*e 'uture is r#t*er $le#0. Universe will not onl3 exp#n< 'oreverF $ut will <o so #t
ever1in!re#sin2 spee<. =r#vit#tion#ll3 $oun< stru!turesF su!* #s 2#l#xiesF 2#l#x3 !lusters #n< super!lusters will $e!o4e
4ore #n< 4ore isol#te< in t*e 'uture. As noti!e< $3 sever#l investi2#tors B;in<ler 1(56N +r#uss #n< 5t#r04#n 2///N
Xir0oviY #n< @ostro4 2//1CF !os4olo2i!#l !onst#nt #!ts to !re#te #n event *oriEonF i.e. !lose< sur'#!e #!ross w*i!*
!o44uni!#tion is i4possi$le #t #ll ti4es. ,*is e''e!tivel3 4e#ns t*#t #n3 pertur$#tion l#r2er t*e siEe o' *oriEon !#nnot
#''e!t us. >n t*e ot*er *#n<F t*e inexor#$le rise o' entrop3 will <e2r#<e 4#tter !on'i2ur#tions in e#!* o' t*e re2ions 'orever
surroun<e< $3 event *oriEonsF #n< t*e st#te ver3 !lose to t*e !l#ssi!#ll3 i4#2ine< *e#t1<e#t* Be.2. E<<in2ton 1(31C will
ensue. ,*e pro!esses o' st#r1'or4#tion #n< stell#r nu!leos3nt*esisF #t present t*e 4#Mor sour!es o' entrop3 pro<u!tionF will
!e#seF #n< t*e re4#inin2 stell#r re4n#nts will $e slowl3 <e2r#<e< $3 proton <e!#3 #n< 2r#vit#tion#l !oll#pse. Even $l#!0
*oles will inevit#$l3 ev#por#te on tre4en<ousl3 lon2 ti4es!#les t*rou2* t*e )#w0in2 ev#por#tion. Fin#ll3F not*in2 will
re4#in ex!ept t*e in!re<i$l3 re<s*i'te< t*er4#l p*otons o' w#velen2t*s !o4p#r#$le to t*e *oriEonsiEeF sin!e even t*e
re4#inin2 not #nni*il#te< ele!trons #n< positrons will $e sep#r#te< $3 <ist#n!es '#r surp#ssin2 t*e *oriEon siEe.
1;
2009
A2H BEA 3EAB WO!5 BAPPE!
E2en i* we .on5t win heat .eath wi-- occur 4 an osci--ating uni2erse 6akes e+tinction ine2ita1-e
=aku in E8 B?i!*ioF :ro'. ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s S 6it3 6olle2e 7ew Gor0F J:#r#llel UniversesLF p.2(/12(1C
5o4e !os4olo2ists *#ve trie< to ev#<e t*is O*e#t <e#t*O $3 #ppe#lin2 to #n os!ill#tin2 universe. Entrop3 woul< in!re#se
!ontinu#ll3 #s t*e universe exp#n<e< #n< eventu#ll3 !ontr#!te<. @ut #'ter t*e $i2 !run!*F it is not !le#r w*#t woul< $e!o4e
o' t*e entrop3 in t*e universe. 5o4e *#ve entert#ine< t*e i<e# t*#t per*#ps t*e universe 4i2*t si4pl3 repe#t itsel' ex#!tl3 in
t*e next !3!le. ?ore re#listi! is t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t t*e entrop3 woul< $e !#rrie< over to t*e next !3!leF w*i!* 4e#ns t*#t
t*e li'eti4e o' t*e universe woul< 2r#<u#ll3 len2t*en 'or e#!* !3!le. @ut no 4#tter *ow one loo0s #t t*e AuestionF t*e
os!ill#tin2 universeF li0e t*e open #n< !lose< universesF will eventu#ll3 result in t*e <estru!tion o' #ll intelli2ent li'e.
1:
2009
A2H WO"MBO%ES !O $EASIA%E
ra2ersa1-e wor6ho-es in spaceti6e cou-. 1e constructe. in the *oreseea1-e *uture
Woo.war./ 597 BI#4es F.F pro'essor #t 6#li'orni# 5t#te Universit3F J,W"5,5 >F FA,E8 6A7 WE ?A+E
,;A-E;5A@.E W>;?)>.E5 "7 5:A6E,"?EKFL Foun<#tions o' :*3si!s .ettersF A!!esse< usin2 5prin2er.in0 on
/%12/1/&C
)ow seriousl3 s*oul< 3ou t#0e t*e 4et*o<s o' wor4*ole pro<u!tion s0et!*e< *ereK WellF t*ere is no Onew p*3si!sO in #n3 o' t*e 'ore2oin2 ot*er t*#n possi$l3
t*e proposition t*#t inerti#l re#!tion 'or!es #re pro<u!e< $3 # 'iel< inter#!tion t*#t isF t*#t ?#!*Ps prin!iple o$t#ins. ,*e rel#tivit3 o' inerti# B?#!*Ps
prin!ipleCF *oweverF is wi<el3 t*ou2*t to $e true. An< experi4ents s*ow t*#t #t le#st one o' t*e tr#nsient sour!e ter4s t*#t
#ppe#rs in t*e 'iel< eAu#tion <erive< in 5e!. 3 exists in '#!t. ,*ereF " t*in0F is t*e #ppropri#te seriousness !riterion8 t#n2i$leF !orro$or#$leF p*3si!#l evi<en!e. An<
sin!e su!* <oes not 3et exist 'or ;E? per seF 3ou 4#3 not w#nt t#0e #ll t*is too seriousl3. At le#st until !onvin!in2 evi<en!e 'or t*e pro<u!tion o' ;E? is 'ort*!o4in2. "t 4#3 $e t*#t ,W"5,s #re p*3si!#ll3
pro*i$ite< [11]. >r it 4#3 $e t*#t so4e e''e!t !#t#strop*i! repulsive <isruption 4entione< #$ove 'or ex#4ple ren<ers t*e 4et*o<s <is!usse< *ere unwor0#$le in pr#!ti!e. 7onet*elessF " t*in0 it
pru<ent to point out t*#tF #lt*ou2* it is unli0el3 t*#t so4e nutt3 pro'essor will $e #$le to 4#0e # ,W"5, in *is/*er 2#r#2e
wit*out 'lu$$in2 t*e #tte4ptF t*e 4e#ns ne!ess#r3 to !#rr3 t*rou2* #n investi2#tion o' t*is $usiness #re rel#tivel3 4o<est
Bor<ers o' 4#2nitu<e less t*#n t*e !ost o'F s#3F # st#te1o'1t*e1#rt p#rti!le #!!eler#torC. A re#l prospe!t existsF t*ere'oreF t*#t
so4eone 4#3 #!tu#ll3 su!!ee< in 4#0in2 # ,W"5, in t*e 'oresee#$le 'uture. Unless !#ution in su!* #n un<ert#0in2 is exer!ise< espe!i#ll3 *#vin2 #n
#$solutel3 'oolproo' 4et*o< 'or !losin2 #n3 ,W"5, 4#<e pro4ptl3 serious !onseAuen!es 4i2*t ensue. =iven t*e n#ture o' our universeF t*e overw*el4in2
pro$#$ilit3 is t*#t t*e ot*er 4out* o' # r#n<o4l3 2ener#te< ,W"5, woul< $e 'or4e< in outer sp#!e. As # 'rien< re4#r0e< w*en "
4entione< t*is to *i4F t*is 2ives #n entirel3 new 4e#nin2 to ;oss :erotPs Osu!0in2 soun<O re4#r0 #$out 7AF,A [12]. A!tions o' $re#t*t#0in2 stupi<it3 4i2*t $e possi$le it woul< see4. 6#n we 4#0e #
wor4*oleK " 4ust #<4it t*#t 43 sense o' re#son#$leness is o''en<e< $3 ,W"5,s espe!i#ll3 ,W",s. =ut intuition B#$ette< $3 # little voi!e t*#t 0eeps repe#tin2 I.@.5. )#l<#nePs '#4ous re4#r0 #$out re#lit3
[13]CF *oweverF tells 4e t*#t wit* su''i!ientl3 !lever en2ineerin2 ,W"5,s 4#3 in<ee< $e 'e#si$le. ,*e essenti#l p*3si!s o' 5t#r ,re0 4#3 lie wit*in our 2r#sp
[14]. 5oF per*#ps in 4#0in2 # ,W",F eventu#ll3 we will unveil t*e e<2e o' sp#!eti4e B#n< in t*e pro!ess !o#x n#ture into reve#lin2 p*3si!#l evi<en!e o' *er $i2 ,>EC [15]. 5urel3F !oul< we <o t*#tF t*#t
!oul< $e !#lle< # ,W"5, o' '#te.
Wor6ho-es a--ow near-0 instantaneous tra2e-
Woo.war./ 597 BI#4es F.F pro'essor #t 6#li'orni# 5t#te Universit3F J,W"5,5 >F FA,E8 6A7 WE ?A+E
,;A-E;5A@.E W>;?)>.E5 "7 5:A6E,"?EKFL Foun<#tions o' :*3si!s .ettersF A!!esse< usin2 5prin2er.in0 on
/%12/1/&C
5*oul< # tr#vers#$le wor4*ole $e 'oun< it !oul< $e utiliEe< in interstell#r tr#vel in t*e 4ost o$vious w#3. 5uppose # tr#veler Bs#3F Ellie
'ro4 t*e #$ove1 4entione< novelC w#nts to Z3 'ro4 t*e E#rt* to -e2#. >ne !oul< t*in0 t*#t t*e trip Bt*ere #n< $#!0C will t#0e #t le#st 52 3e#rs B$3 t*e terrestri#l !lo!0sC even i' s*e 4oves #t # ne#rl3 li2*t
spee<. @ut i' t*ere is # wor4*ole !onne!tin2 t*e vi!inities o' t*e E#rt* #n< -e2# s*e !#n t#0e # s*ort1!ut $3 Z3in2 t*rou2* it
#n< t*us 4#0e t*e roun< trip to -e2# in B#l4ostC no ti4e. 7oteF *oweverF t*#t su!* # use o' # wor4*ole woul< *#ve *#<
not*in2 to <o wit* !ir!u4ventin2 t*e li2*t $#rrier. "n<ee<F suppose t*#t Ellie9s st#rt to -e2# is #ppointe< on # 4o4ent t U
/. >ur !on!ern is wit* t*e ti4e interv#l [tE in w*i!* s*e will return to t*e E#rt*. 5uppose t*#t we 0now B'ro4 #strono4i!#l o$serv#tionsF t*eoreti!#l !#l!ul#tionsF et!.C t*#t i'
in t U / s*e Binste#< o' Z3in2 *ersel' C Must e4it # p*oton 'ro4 t*e E#rt*F t*is p*oton #'ter re#!*in2 -e2# B#n<F s#3F reZe!tin2 'ro4 itC will return $#!0 #t $est in # ti4e interv#l [tp . "' we \n< #
wor4*ole 'ro4 t*e E#rt* to -e2#F it woul< onl3 4e#n t*#t [tp #!tu#ll3 is s4#llF or in ot*er wor<s t*#t -e2# is #!tu#ll3 '#r
!loser to t*e E#rt* t*#n we t*in0 now. @ut w*#t !#n $e <one i' [tp is l#r2e Bone woul< *#r<l3 expe!t t*#t tr#vers#$le wor4*oles !#n $e 'oun< 'or #n3 st#r we woul< li0e to Z3 toCK
,*#t is w*ere t*e nee< in *3per1'#st tr#nsport !o4es 'ro4. "n ot*er wor<sF t*e pro$le4 o' !ir!u4ventin2 t*e li2*t $#rrier Bin !onne!tion wit* interstell#r tr#velC lies in t*e Auestion8 *ow to re#!* # re4ote Bi.
e. wit* t*e l#r2e [tp C st#r #n< to return $#!0 sooner t*#n # p*oton woul< *#ve 4#<e it Bi. e. in [tE ] [tp CK "t 4#0es sense to !#ll # sp#!es*ip '#ster1t*#n1li2*t Bor *3per1'#st C i' it solves t*is prole4. A
possi$le w#3 o' !re#tin2 *3per'#st tr#nsport lies #lso in t*e use o' tr#vers#$le wor4*oles B+r#sni0ovF 1((&C. 5uppose t*#t # tr#veler
\n<s Bor $uil<sC # tr#vers#$le wor4*ole wit* $ot* 4out*s lo!#te< ne#r t*e E#rt* #n< suppose t*#t s*e !#n 4ove t*e 4out*s Bsee Fi2.1C #t will wit*out serious <#4#2e to t*e 2eo4etr3 o' t*e tunnel Bw*i!*
we t#0e to $e ne2li2i$l3 s*ortC. ,*en s*e !#n Z3 to -e2# t#0in2 one o' t*e 4out*s wit* *er. ?ovin2 B#l4ostC #t t*e spee< o' li2*t s*e will re#!* -e2# B#l4ostC inst#nt#neousl3 $3 *er
!lo!0s. "n <oin2 so s*e rests wit* respe!t to t*e E#rt* inso'#r #s t*e <ist#n!e is 4e#sure< t*rou2* t*e wor4*ole. ,*ere'ore *er
!lo!0s re4#in s3n!*ronous wit* t*ose on t*e E#rt* #s '#r #s t*is '#!t is !*e!0e< $3 experi4ents !on\ne< to t*e wor4*ole. 5oF i' s*e return t*rou2* t*e wor4*ole s*e will #rrive $#!0 to t*e E#rt* #l4ost
i44e<i#tel3 #'ter s*e will *#ve le't it Bwit* [tE [tp C.
Aa10 uni2erses wi-- support -i*e
Car.ner/ 507 BI#4esF #ut*or #n< !o4plexit3 t*eoristF J,*e "ntelli2ent UniverseFL UniverseF April 4F
*ttp8//www.ur$#n*on0in2.!o4/universe/#r!*ives/2//%//4/interviewQM#4es.*t4lF A!!esse< /%1231/&C
GesF it is # !entr#l tenet o' 43 *3pot*esis t*#t our <ist#nt su!!essors will $e !#p#$le o' see<in2 new $#$3 universes #n<
en<owin2 t*e4 wit* J!os4i! 7AL Bi.e.F # set o' ti2*tl3 !onstr#ine< p*3si!#l !onst#ntsC t*#t ren<ers t*e @i2 @#$ies $io1
'rien<l3F so t*#t t*e pro!ess o' !os4i! repli!#tion !#n !ontinue in<e'initel3. An i4pli!#tion o' t*e *3pot*esis is t*#t our
universe w#s !re#te< in t*e i4#2e B4et#p*ori!#ll3 spe#0in2C o' # pre<e!essor universe t*#t possesse< t*#t s#4e or ver3
si4il#r J!os4i! 7A.L An< 3esF #ll extr#terrestri#l li'e Bi' it existsC will *#ve evolve< on # !o44on su$str#te Bt*#t !os4i!
7A #2#inC #n< t*us will rese4$le us on so4e pro'oun< level.
17
2009
###WIPEOU S7E!A"IO A!SWE"S###
19
2009
A2H P"E@E!S 3ES"U7IO! O$ P%A!/A!IMA% %I$E
Bu6an -i*e is ke0 to preser2ing a-- -i*e on earth
Mathen0 7 BI#son =.F 5pe!i#l A<visor 6enter 'or @iose!urit3F J>u2*t We Worr3 A$out )u4#n Extin!tionKLF 1216F
"t w#s onl3 in t*e l#st !entur3F wit* t*e invention o' nu!le#r we#ponsF t*#t t*e pro$#$ilit3 o' *u4#n extin!tion !oul< $e
#ppre!i#$l3 #''e!te< $3 *u4#n #!tion. Ever sin!eF *u4#n extin!tion *#s 2ener#ll3 $een !onsi<ere< # terri$le possi$ilit3. "t9s surprisin2F t*enF t*#t # se#r!* o' I5,>; #n< t*e
:*ilosop*er9s "n<ex su22ests !onte4por#r3 p*ilosop*ers *#ve written little #$out t*e et*i!s o' *u4#n extin!tion. "n '#!tF t*e3 see4 to *#ve written 4ore #$out t*e extin!tion o' ot*er #ni4#ls. ?#3$e t*is is
$e!#use t*e3 !onsi<er *u4#n extin!tion i4possi$le or inevit#$leN or 4#3$e *u4#n extin!tion see4s in!onseAuenti#l !o4p#re< to ot*er 4or#l issues. "n t*is p#per " #r2ue t*#t t*e possi$ilit3 o' *u4#n
extin!tion <eserves 4ore #ttention. W*ile extin!tion events 4#3 $e ver3 i4pro$#$leF t*eir !onseAuen!es #re 2r#ve. )u4#n extin!tion
woul< not onl3 !on<e4n to non1existen!e #ll 'uture *u4#n 2ener#tionsF it woul< #lso !ut s*ort t*e existen!e o' #ll #ni4#l
li'eF #s n#tur#l events will eventu#ll3 4#0e E#rt* unin*#$it#$le.
On-0 hu6ans ha2e the capa1i-ities to pre2ent asteroi. co--isions an. preser2e -i*e on earth
Mathen0 7 BI#son =.F 5pe!i#l A<visor 6enter 'or @iose!urit3F J>u2*t We Worr3 A$out )u4#n Extin!tionKLF 1216F
Ani4#l li'e *#s existe< on E#rt* 'or #roun< 5// 4illion 3e#rs. @#rrin2 # <r#4#ti! interventionF #ll #ni4#l li'e on E#rt* will
<ie in t*e next sever#l $illion 3e#rs. E#rt* is lo!#te< in # 'iel< o' t*ous#n<s o' #steroi<s #n< !o4ets. 65 4illion 3e#rs #2oF #n
#steroi< 1/ 0ilo4eters in siEe *it t*e Gu!#t#n F !re#tin2 !lou<s o' <ust #n< s4o0e t*#t $lo!0e< sunli2*t 'or 4ont*sF
pro$#$l3 !#usin2 t*e extin!tion o' (/^ o' #ni4#lsF in!lu<in2 <inos#urs. A 1// 04 i4p#!tF !#p#$le o' extin2uis*in2 #ll
#ni4#l li'e on E#rt*F is pro$#$le wit*in # $illion 3e#rs B?orrison et #l.F 2//2C. "' #n #steroi< <oes not extin2uis* #ll #ni4#l
li'eF t*e 5un will. "n one $illion 3e#rsF t*e 5un will $e2in its ;e< =i#nt st#2eF in!re#sin2 in siEe #n< te4per#ture. Wit*in six $illion 3e#rsF t*e 5un will *#ve ev#por#te< #ll o' E#rt*9s w#terF #n<
terrestri#l te4per#tures will re#!* 1/// <e2rees 11 4u!* too *ot 'or #4ino #!i<1$#se< li'e to persist. "'F so4e*owF li'e were to survive t*ese !*#n2esF it will <ie in % $illion 3e#rs w*en t*e 5un 'or4s #
pl#net#r3 ne$ul# t*#t irr#<i#tes E#rt* B5#!04#nnF @oot*ro3<F +r#e4erF 1((3N W#r< #n< @rownleeF 2//2C. E#rt* is # <#n2erous pl#!e #n< #ni4#l li'e *ere *#s <i4
prospe!ts. "' t*ere #re 1/
12
sentient #ni4#ls on E#rt*F onl3 1/
21
li'e13e#rs re4#in. ,*e onl3 *ope 'or terrestri#l sentien!e
survivin2 well $e3on< t*is li4it is t*#t so4e 'or!e will <e'le!t l#r2e #steroi<s $e'ore t*e3 !olli<e wit* E#rt*F 2ivin2 sentients #not*er
$illion or 4ore 3e#rs o' li'e B=ritEner #n< +#*leF 2//4CN #n</or terrestri#l sentients will !oloniEe ot*er sol#r s3ste4sF 2ivin2 sentients up to #not*er 1// trillion 3e#rs o' li'e until #ll st#rs $e2in to stop s*inin2
BA<#4s #n< .#u2*linF 1((%C. .i'e 4i2*t survive even lon2er i' it exploits non1stell#r ener23 sour!es. @ut it is *#r< to i4#2ine *ow li'e
!oul< survive $e3on< t*e <e!#3 o' nu!le#r 4#tter expe!te< in 1/
32
to 1/
41
3e#rs BA<#4s #n< .#u2*linF 1((%C. ,*is 4#3 $e
t*e upper li4it on t*e 'uture o' sentien!e.
1
[4] e'le!tin2 #steroi<s #n< !oloniEin2 sp#!e !oul< <el#3 t*e extin!tion o' E#rt*1
ori2in#tin2 sentien!e 'ro4 1/
(
to 1/
41
3e#rs. Assu4in2 #n #ver#2e popul#tion o' one trillion sentients is 4#int#ine< Bw*i!* is # !onserv#tive #ssu4ption un<er !oloniE#tion
2
[5]CF
t*ese interventions woul< !re#te $etween 1/
21
#n< 1/
53
li'e13e#rs. At present on E#rt*F onl3 # *u4#n !iviliE#tion woul< $e re4otel3 !#p#$le o' !#rr3in2 out
su!* proMe!ts. "' *u4#nit3 survives t*e next 'ew !enturiesF it9s li0el3 we will <evelop te!*nolo2ies nee<e< 'or #t le#st one o'
t*ese proMe!ts. We 4#3 #lre#<3 possess t*e te!*nolo2ies nee<e< to <e'le!t #steroi<s B=ritEner #n< +#*leF 2//4N Uri#s et #l.F
1((6C. An< in t*e next 'ew !enturiesF we9re li0el3 to <evelop te!*nolo2ies t*#t #llow !oloniE#tion. We will $e stron2l3
4otiv#te< $3 sel'1interest to !oloniEe sp#!eF #s #steroi<s #n< pl#nets *#ve v#lu#$le resour!es to 4ineF #n< #s our surviv#l
ulti4#tel3 reAuires relo!#tin2 to #not*er sol#r s3ste4 B+#r2elF 1((4N .ewisF 1((6C.
It wi-- 1e i6possi1-e *or another species to e2o-2e an. achie2e the capa1i-it0 to pre2ent e+tinction
?#t*en3 % BI#son =.F 5pe!i#l A<visor 6enter 'or @iose!urit3F J>u2*t We Worr3 A$out )u4#n Extin!tionKLF 1216F
,*ere !oul< $e ot*er re#sons to not worr3 #$out *u4#n extin!tion. For inst#n!eF it 4i2*t $e *ope< t*#t i' *u4#nit3 is
extin2uis*e<F #not*er #ni4#l will evolve #n< <evelop t*e te!*nolo2ies nee<e< to preserve terrestri#l li'e. ,*is possi$ilit3
s*oul< not 2ive us 4u!* !o4'ort. 5o4e eventsF su!* #s #steroi< i4p#!tsF t*re#ten #ll #ni4#l spe!iesF not Must our own 11
t*ere 4#3 $e no #ni4#l t*#t survives to evolve. ?oreoverF t*e evolution o' # !iviliE#tion li0e ours 4#3 $e # r#re event.
Anot*er spe!ies t*#t evolves to 'ill our intelli2en!e ni!*e !oul< <o #s 4u!* environ4ent#l <#4#2e #s *u4#nit3F #n< !oul< *#ve #
worse et*i!#l s3ste4. E.>. Wilson B1(%&F p. 1/4CF <es!ri$in2 spe!ies 4ore violent t*#n *u4#nsF re4#r0e<F J" suspe!t t*#t i' *#4#<r3#s $#$oons *#< nu!le#r we#ponsF t*e3 woul< <estro3 t*e worl< in #
wee0. An< #lon2si<e #ntsF w*i!* !on<u!t #ss#ssin#tionsF s0ir4is*esF #n< pit!*e< $#ttles #s routine $usinessF 4en #re #ll $ut tr#nAuiliEe< p#!i'ists.L Altern#tivel3F #not*er intelli2ent spe!ies !oul< *#ve #
$etter et*i!#l s3ste4 $ut too 'ew #4$itions to <evelop te!*nolo2ies essenti#l to <el#3in2 extin!tion. =iven t*e Bpro$#$l3C i4pro$#$le position we 'in< ourselves inF #s #
spe!ies wit* $ot* t*e te!*nolo2i!#l potenti#l #n< t*e 4otiv#tion to <el#3 extin!tionF it woul< $e i4pru<ent to trust #not*er
spe!ies will evolve #n< possess t*e s#4e. ?oreoverF it woul< t#0e 4#n3 4illions o' 3e#rs 'or su!* # spe!ies to evolve.
urin2 t*#t ti4eF E#rt* will $e expose< to #strono4i!#l ris0sF #n< entrop3 will *#ve !onsu4e< resour!es t*#t !oul<
ot*erwise *#ve supporte< sentient li'e B@ostro4F 2//3C.
1
2
19
2009
A2H BAA"P
1) heir i6pact scenarios are e6pirica--0 .enie. 4 BAA"P techno-og0 has 1een in use since the 1970s an. the
pro>ect isn5t 1ig enough to .o an0 .a6age)
Ausch 97 B.in<#F Fe$ru#r3 21F 1((%F J"onosp*ere ;ese#r!* .#$ 5p#r0s Fe#rs in Al#s0#LF 5!ien!e 4#2#EineF writer 'or t*e
A4eri!#n Asso!i#tion 'or t*e A<v#n!e4ent o' 5!ien!eF *ttp8//www.s!ien!e4#2.or2/!2i/!ontent/'ull/2%5/53/3/1/6/K
4#xtos*owU_)",5U1/_*itsU1/_;E5U.,F>;?A,U_'ulltextUwe#t*er`4#nipul#tion_se#r!*i<U1_F";5,"7EWU2/
_resour!et3peU)W6",C
@ut #nti1)AA;: s0epti!s !l#i4 t*#t t*e 4ilit#r3 *#s even $i22er pl#ns 'or t*e proMe!t. )AA;:Ps so4ew*#t 4en#!in2
#ppe#r#n!e surel3 *#snPt *elpe< resolve its pu$li!1rel#tions pro$le48 4& 2114eter r#<io #ntenn#s now loo4 $e*in< t*e
=#0on# '#!ilit3Ps $#r$e<1wire 'en!eF #n<F w*en !o4plete<F t*e (1*e!t#re #ntenn# '#r4 will $e stu''e< wit* 1&/ towers. "n
*is $oo0F @e2i!*F w*o is t*e in'or4#l spo0esperson 'or t*e loosel3 0nit #nti1)AA;: !o#litionF writes t*#t #ll t*is
te!*nolo23 is p#rt o' # > pl#n to r#ise # 5t#r W#rs1t3pe 4issile s*iel< #n< <evise te!*nolo2ies 'or M#44in2 2lo$#l
!o44uni!#tions worl<wi<e. :*3si!#l !*e4ist ;i!*#r< Willi#4sF # !onsult#nt 'or t*e #vi< 5#rno'' "nstitute in :rin!etonF
7ew Ierse3F 'urt*er #r2ues t*#t )AA;: !oul< irrep#r#$l3 <#4#2e t*e ionosp*ere8 O,*is is $#si!#ll3 #t4osp*eri! p*3si!ists
pl#3in2 wit* t*e ionosp*ereF w*i!* is vit#l to t*e li'e o' t*is pl#net.O AlsoF *e #sserts t*#t Ot*is w*ole !on!ept o'
ele!tro4#2neti! w#r'#reO nee<s to $e Opu$li!l3 <e$#te<.O ,*e )AA;: !riti!s *#ve #s0e< 'or # pu$li! !on'eren!e to <is!uss
t*eir !on!erns #n< *e#r 4ore <et#ils #$out t*e s!ien!e 'ro4 t*e 4ilit#r3. ,*e3 *#ve written *un<re<s o' letters to Al#s0#Ps
!on2ression#l <ele2#tion #n< *#ve su!!ee<e< in 2ettin2 t*e #ttention o' sever#l st#te le2isl#torsF w*o *el< le2isl#tive
*e#rin2s on t*e su$Me!t l#st 3e#r. ?#n3 s!ientists w*o wor0 on )AA;: #re <u4$'oun<e< $3 t*e !*#r2es. OWe #re Must
i4provin2 on te!*nolo23 t*#t #lre#<3 existsFO s#3s )e!0s!*er. )e points out t*#t t*e ?#x :l#n!0 "nstitute *#s $een runnin2
# $i2 ionosp*eri! O*e#terO in ,ro4saF 7orw#3F sin!e t*e l#te 1(%/s wit* no l#stin2 e''e!ts. U.5. s!ientists <onPt *#ve 2oo<
#!!ess $e!#use t*e Unite< 5t#tes <i< not Moin t*e 7orwe2i#n !onsortiu4. AlsoF t*e Unite< 5t#tes #lre#<3 oper#tes two ot*er
s4#ll ionosp*eri! *e#tersF #t t*e Are!i$o >$serv#tor3 in :uerto ;i!o #n< #t )":A5F oper#te< $3 t*e Universit3 o'
6#li'orni#F .os An2elesF 325 0ilo4eters <own t*e ro#< 'ro4 )AA;: in 6*en# )ot 5prin2sF Al#s0#. ,*e )AA;: '#!ilit3F
wit* t*ree ti4es t*e power o' !urrent '#!ilities #n< # v#stl3 4ore 'lexi$le r#<io $e#4F will $e t*e worl<Ps l#r2est ionosp*eri!
*e#ter. 5tillF it will not $e ne#rl3 power'ul enou2* to !*#n2e E#rt*Ps !li4#teF s#3 s!ientists. O,*e3 #re t#l0in2 s!ien!e
'i!tionFO s#3s 53un1"!*i A0#so'uF w*o *e#<s t*e Universit3 o' Al#s0#Ps =eop*3si!#l "nstitute in F#ir$#n0sF t*e le#<
institution in # universit3 !onsortiu4 t*#t 4#<e re!o44en<#tions to t*e 4ilit#r3 #$out *ow )AA;: !oul< $e use< 'or
$#si! rese#r!*. )AA;: wonPt $e <oin2 #n3t*in2 to t*e ionosp*ere t*#t <oesnPt *#ppen n#tur#ll3 #s # result o' sol#r
r#<i#tionF s#3s A0#so'u. "n<ee<F t*e $e#4Ps e''e!t on t*e ionosp*ere is 4inus!ule !o4p#re< to nor4#l <#31ni2*t v#ri#tions.
O,o <o w*#t [t*e !riti!s] #re t#l0in2 #$outF we woul< *#ve to 'l#tten t*e entire st#te o' Al#s0# #n< put up 4illions o'
#ntenn#sF #n< even t*enF " #4 not sure it woul< wor0.O We#t*er is 2ener#te<F not in t*e ionosp*ereF $ut in t*e <ense
#t4osp*ere !lose to E#rt*F points out Universit3 o' ,uls# provost #n< pl#s4# p*3si!ist .ewis un!#nF 'or4er !*#ir o' t*e
U.5. "onosp*eri! 5teerin2 6o44ittee. @e!#use )AA;:Ps r#<io $e#4 onl3 ex!ites #n< *e#ts ioniEe< p#rti!lesF it will slip
ri2*t t*rou2* t*e lower #t4osp*ereF w*i!* is !o4pose< pri4#ril3 o' neutr#l 2#ses. O"' !li4#te 4o<i'i!#tions were even
!on!eiv#$le usin2 t*is te!*nolo23F 3ou !#n $et t*ere woul< $e # lot 4ore 'un<in2 #v#il#$le 'or itFO *e Mo0es.
2) urn 4 O<one 3ep-etion
A) BAA"P is ke0 to so-2ing O<one 3ep-etion
"e61ert 97 B,r#!e3 6F I#nu#r3 11 1((%F Jis!or<#nt )AA;:N )i2*1FreAuen!3 A!tive Auror#l ;ese#r!* :ro2r#4LF E8
,*e Environ4ent#l ?#2#EineF !oor<in#tor o' 6o1op A4eri!#F E<itor o' 5*#re*ol<er9s A!tion Du#rterl3
*ttp8//www.'in<#rti!les.!o4/p/#rti!les/4iQ415(4/isQn1Qv&/#iQ1(1(25/5/p2Q3C
5o '#rF proponents o' )AA;: *#ve !on!entr#te< solel3 on its <e'ensive #n< t#!ti!#l 4ilit#r3 #ppli!#tionsF $ut one p#tent
spe!ul#tes t*#t t*e <evi!e woul< $e #$le to #lter Oupper1#t4osp*ere win< p#tterns...so t*#t positive environ4ent#l e''e!ts
!#n $e #!*ieve<...For ex#4pleF oEoneF nitro2en #n< ot*er !on!entr#tions in t*e #t4osp*ere !oul< $e #rti'i!i#ll3 in!re#se<.O
)AA;: !oul< #lso t*eoreti!#ll3 !re#te r#in in <rou2*t1ri<<en #re#sF <e!re#se r#ins <urin2 'loo<in2 #n< re<ire!t *urri!#nesF
torn#<oes #n< 4onsoons #w#3 'ro4 popul#te< #re#s.
20
2009
A2H BAA"P
A) O<one .ep-etion causes e+tinction
Creenpeace in 59; BJFull o' )o4es8 ,*e ?ontre#l :roto!ol #n< t*e 6ontinuin2 estru!tion o' t*e >Eone .#3erF
*ttp8//#r!*ive.2reenpe#!e.or2/oEone/*oles/*ole$2.*t4lC
W*en !*e4ists 5*erwoo< ;owl#n< #n< ?#rio ?olin# 'irst postul#te< # lin0 $etween !*loro'luoro!#r$ons #n< oEone l#3er
<epletion in 1(%4F t*e news w#s 2reete< wit* s!epti!is4F $ut t#0en seriousl3 nonet*eless. ,*e v#st 4#Morit3 o' !re<i$le
s!ientists *#ve sin!e !on'ir4e< t*is *3pot*esis. ,*e oEone l#3er #roun< t*e E#rt* s*iel<s us #ll 'ro4 *#r4'ul ultr#violet
r#<i#tion 'ro4 t*e sun. Wit*out t*e oEone l#3erF li'e on e#rt* woul< not exist. Exposure to in!re#se< levels o' ultr#violet
r#<i#tion !#n !#use !#t#r#!tsF s0in !#n!erF #n< i44une s3ste4 suppression in *u4#ns #s well #s innu4er#$le e''e!ts on
ot*er livin2 s3ste4s. ,*is is w*3 ;owl#n<Ps #n< ?olin#Ps t*eor3 w#s t#0en so seriousl3F so Aui!0l3 1 t*e st#0es #re liter#ll3
t*e !ontinu#tion o' li'e on e#rt*.
&) heir i6pacts are science *iction 4 their authors assu6e a pro>ect 1/000 ti6es 6ore power*u- than BAA"P
7o-e/ 9; B5epte4$er 1%F writer 'or F#ir$#n0s 7ews1?iner #n< 51ti4e pu$lis*e< non'i!tion #ut*orF J)AA;: 6ontrovers3L
*ttp8//www.*##rp.#l#s0#.e<u/*##rp/news/'n4((5.*t4lC
Al#s0#n 7i!0 @e2i!* Ir.F w*o re!entl3 2ot # <o!tor#te in t*e stu<3 o' #ltern#tive 4e<i!ine 'ro4 # s!*ool $#se< in 5ri .#n0#F *#s written #n< pu$lis*e< # new $oo0 in w*i!* *e #lle2es t*#t
)AA;: !oul< le#< to O2lo$#l v#n<#lis4O #n< #''e!t peoplePs O4ent#l 'un!tions.O 53un A0#so'uF <ire!tor o' t*e
=eop*3si!#l "nstituteF s#i< t*e ele!tri! power in t*e #uror# is *un<re<s o' t*ous#n<s o' ti4es stron2er t*#n t*#t pro<u!e< $3
)AA;:.,*e 4ost outl#n<is* !*#r2es #$out )AA;: #re t*#t it is <esi2ne< to <isrupt t*e *u4#n $r#inF M#4 #ll !o44uni!#tions s3ste4sF !*#n2e we#t*er p#tterns over #
l#r2e #re#F inter'ere wit* wil<li'e 4i2r#tionF *#r4 peoplePs *e#lt* #n< unn#tur#ll3 i4p#!t t*e E#rt*Ps upper #t4osp*ere. ,*ese #n< ot*er !l#i4s #ppe#r to $e $#se< on spe!ul#tion #$out
w*#t 4i2*t *#ppen i' # proMe!t 1F/// ti4es 4ore power'ul t*#n )AA;: is ever $uilt.,*#t see4s to $e in t*e re#l4 o'
s!ien!e 'i!tion.
Wrong 4 BAA"P won5t cause war6ing 4 its signa-s are a 6i--ion ti6es -ess power*u- than go2ern6ent appro2e.
sa*et0 -e2e-s
"o<e-- 97 B7e<F s!ien!e writer #t =eop*3si!#l "nstitute Universit3 o' Al#s0# F#ir$#n0sF Iune 5F JW*3 All t*e )#rpin2
A$out )AA;:KL *ttp8//www.2i.#l#s0#.e<u/5!ien!eForu4/A5F13/134/.*t4lC
"s )AA;: <#n2erousK WellF )AA;: si2n#ls #re one 4illion ti4es less <#n2erous t*#n 2overn4ent1#pprove< s#'et3 levels
'or #n3 ele!tri!#l si2n#l. )AA;:Ps tr#ns4itter !urrentl3 *#s # power o' 1/3 4e2#w#ttF w*i!* 4i2*t $e $ooste< to 3
4e2#w#tts in # 'ew 3e#rsF )e!0s!*er s#i<. )e !o4p#re< )AA;:Ps e''e!t on t*e v#st ionosp*ere to t*e w#r4in2 t*#t woul<
$e experien!e< $3 t*e w*ole 6opper ;iver i' 3ou <ippe< in # s4#ll ele!tri! !oil o' t*e t3pe use< to w#r4 one sin2le !up o'
!o''ee. ,*is is w*3 A0#so'u <es!ri$es ru4ors *ePs *e#r< !ir!ul#tin2 #$out )AA;: #s <#n2erous to people or t*e
environ4ent #s pure s!ien!e 'i!tion. )AA;: !oul< present # potenti#l <#n2er to ele!troni! eAuip4ent in #ir!r#'t t*#t is 'l3in2 over*e#< w*en t*e tr#ns4itter is turne< onF $ut t*ere #re
s#'et3 pre!#utions #2#inst t*#t. )AA;: oper#tors noti'3 t*e Fe<er#l Avi#tion A<4inistr#tion wit* t*e )AA;: tr#ns4ission s!*e<ule #n< en2ineers #re inst#llin2 #n #ir!r#'t1<ete!tion r#<#r #t )AA;: to
'urt*er ensure t*e s#'et3 o' over'l3in2 #ir!r#'t. ,*is s#4e pro!e<ure is 'ollowe< w*en ro!0ets #re l#un!*e< 'ro4 :o0er Fl#t ;ese#r!* ;#n2e into t*e upper #t4osp*ere.
Wrong 4 BAA"P won5t -ea. to ioni<ation 4 two reasons
he BAA"P Scientists/ 01 B?#r!* 14F *ttp8//www.*##rp.#l#s0#.e<u/*##rp/ion4.*t4lF t*e s!ientists w*o wor0 on )AA;:
writin2 #$out it on t*e )AA;: we$siteF JW*#t Are t*e E''e!ts o' )AA;: on t*e "onosp*ereKLC
urin2 #!tive ionosp*eri! rese#r!*F # s4#llF 0nown #4ount o' ener23 is #<<e< to # spe!i'i! re2ion o' one o' t*e ionosp*eri! l#3ers #s <is!usse< previousl3. ,*is li4ite< inter#!tive re2ion <ire!tl3 over t*e
'#!ilit3F will r#n2e in siEeF <epen<in2 on t*e 'reAuen!3 o' oper#tion #n< l#3er *ei2*tF 'ro4 #s little #s ( 04 in r#<ius to #s 4u!* #s 4/ 04 in r#<ius #n< 4#3 $e #s 4u!* #s 1/ 04 in t*i!0ness. ,*e inter#!tions
o!!ur onl3 wit* ioniEe< p#rti!les in t*e l#3erN neutr#l Bnon1ioniEe<C p#rti!lesF w*i!* outnu4$er ioniEe< p#rti!les $3 5//81 or 2re#terF re4#in un#''e!te<. )AA;: is not #$le to pro<u!e #rti'i!i#l ioniE#tion 'or
t*e 'ollowin2 two re#sons. 1. ,*e 'reAuen!ies use< $3 t*e )AA;: '#!ilit3 #re in t*e )i2* FreAuen!3 B)FC portion o' t*e spe!tru4.
Ele!tro4#2neti! r#<i#tion in t*e )F 'reAuen!3 r#n2e is non-ionizing 1 #s oppose< to t*e sunPs ultr#violet #n< W1r#3
r#<i#tion w*ose p*otons *#ve su''i!ient ener23 to $e ionizing. 2. ,*e intensit3 o' t*e r#<i#tion 'ro4 t*e !o4plete< )AA;:
'#!ilit3 #t ionosp*eri! *ei2*ts will $e too we#0 to pro<u!e #rti'i!i#l ioniE#tion t*rou2* p#rti!le inter#!tions. ,*e power
<ensit3 pro<u!e< $3 t*e !o4plete< '#!ilit3 will not ex!ee< 2.& 4i!row#tts per !4
2
F #$out two or<ers o' 4#2nitu<e $elow
t*e level reAuire< 'or t*#t pro!ess.
21
2009
A2H I!E"IA WEAPO!S
1) his is science *iction 4 S6ith has no Iua-i*ications/ cites no research/ an. a goog-e search using the ter6s in the
artic-e has 1&2 resu-tsJ their author/ an. a 1unch o* teenagers on 6essage 1oar.s ta-king a1out 2i.eo ga6es) here
is <ero 6ention o* this 10 an0 go2ern6ent o**icia- 4 this argu6ent wou-. 1e 6ore cre.i1-e i* the0 ha. 6a.e it up)
2) Ca6e o2er 4 Intertia weapons are ke0 to .eterrence/ the0 are our on-0 chance at a2oi.ing co6p-ete e+tinction 4
this is their author/ an. we are the on-0 ones rea.ing the conc-usion o* his artic-e
S6ith 0& BW#3neF 5p#!e #il3 4/14F ,*e Ulti4#te We#ponF *ttp8//www.sp#!e<#il3.!o4/news/nu!le#r1$l#!04#r0et1
/3$.*t4lC
7u!le#r $o4$s #re #r2u#$l3 t*e 4ost <ev#st#tin2 4ilit#r3 we#pon ever <eplo3e< $3 *u4#n0in<. As # !onseAuen!e o' t*eir <evelop4ent we *#ve ironi!#ll3 enMo3e< 2ener#tions o' rel#tive pe#!e on t*is
pl#net.Ever3one is Must too 'ri2*tene< to st#rt #not*er worl< w#r. )oweverF t*e *oli<#3 4#3 $e !o4in2 to #n en< #s nu!le#r proli'er#tion st#rts to es!#l#te un!ontroll#$l3. "n t*e $e2innin2 onl3 t*e U5 *#<
#!!ess to t*is te!*nolo23 #n< use< it to 'in#ll3 en< t*e 2re#test w#r t*is worl< *#< ever witnesse<. ;i2*t or wron2F no$o<3 !#n seriousl3 Auestion t*e tot#l un!on<ition#l surren<er o' I#p#n #s not $ein2 #
<ire!t !onseAuen!e o' t*e )iros*i4# #n< 7#2#s#0i $o4$in2s.7ow t*e nu!le#r !lu$ is 2rowin2 tow#r<s <ou$le 'i2ures #lt*ou2* 4#n3 o' its new 4e4$ers #renPt Oo''i!i#ll3O re!o2nise<. ?#n3 n#tions le#<ers
#re un*#pp3 #$out t*e w#3 so4e ot*er !ountries *#ve t*e $o4$ #n< t*e3 <onPt.Even t*ose in #s !lose proxi4it3 to t*e U5 #s ?exi!o *#ve expresse< 2riev#n!es over t*is issue. "t is $elieve< t*#t 4ore t*#n #
!ouple o' !ountries #re t#0in2 4#tters into t*eir own *#n<s $3 <evelopin2 nu!le#r we#pons #rsen#ls se!retl3."t !ert#inl3 woul<nPt $e t*e 'irst ti4e #n< # nu!le#r stri0e is not so inti4i<#tin2 # t*re#t w*en
ever3$o<3 *#s t*e #$ilit3 to !ounterstri0e. As t*e nu4$er o' 2lo$#l #rsen#ls in!re#se so 2rows t*e possi$ilit3 t*e3 4i2*t in '#!t $e use<. ,*en #ll *ell $re#0s loose #n< 3ou !#n 0iss 3our pension 2oo<$3e.
We *#< 4#n3 !lose !#lls <urin2 t*e !ol< w#r #n< !#n loo0 'orw#r< 4ore in t*e 'uture. "t 4i2*t $e t*e result o' intern#tion#l tensions. A 'lo!0 o' $ir<s 4ist#0enl3 Mu<2e< $3 r#<#r oper#tors to $e # 'irst stri0e.
:er*#ps # terrorist #!t or # 4eteor.>ne ti4e t*e ;ussi#ns 4istoo0 # ro!0et !#rr3in2 # we#t*er s#tellite on its w#3 to stu<3 t*e #uror# $ore#lis #s $ein2 # t*er4onu!le#r w#r*e#< t#r2ete< 'or ?os!ow.
A!!i<ents *#ppen. )ow <o 3ou s#3 sorr3 'or 4ist#0enl3 <e!i4#tin2 # !#pit#l !it3. "s #n3 n#tion on e#rt* puss3 enou2* not to ret#li#te i' it *#s t*e 4e#nsK5o4et*in2 o' !ourse nee<s to $e <one $ut no$o<3
*#s #n3 wor0#$le #nswers. 6le#rl3 ever3one !#nPt $e truste< to <is#r4. 7ot in t*e re#l worl<. ,*e te4pt#tion to *i<e so4e w#r*e#<s woul< $e too 2re#t #n< t*e s*i'ts in intern#tion#l power woul< i4p#!t us
in Auite <ev#st#tin2 w#3s. 6onvention#l w#rs woul<nPt $e st34ie< $3 t*e nu!le#r !#r< #n3 4ore. W*#t i' #ll t*e r#!i#l tensionsF politi!#l tur4oil #n< reli2ious Ee#l t*#t *#s $rewe< #n< 'estere< in its 0ettle 'or
p#st 2ener#tions prove< stopp#$le onl3 $3 t*e nu!le#r 2enieK 6*in# woul< pro$#$l3 inv#<e ,#iw#n 'or # st#rt.7u0es *#ve 4#<e 4ore !onvention#l we#pons p#le into insi2ni'i!#n!e #n< !ountries li0e 7ort*
+ore#F "n<i#F :#0ist#n #n< "sr#el re#lise t*e politi!#l !lout #''or<e< to t*e4 $3 $#llisti! 4issiles wit* nu!le#r w#r*e#<s #tt#!*e<. "t see4s to $e # vi!ious !ir!le we !#nPt es!#pe $ut !#n onl3 w#t!* ti2*ten
#roun< us.>nl3 one we#pon !#n <o to t*e nu!le#r #rsen#ls o' t*is worl< w*#t nu!le#r #rsen#ls *#ve <one to !onvention#l #r4s.
GesF # $i22er sti!0 <oes exist #lt*ou2* it isnPt 4u!* t#l0e< #$out. >ne t*#t 4#0es nu0es # less #ttr#!tive poor !ousin $3
!o4p#rison)Inertia weapons *#ve t*#t potenti#l. W*#tPs #n inerti# we#ponK >n # s4#ller s!#leF inerti# we#pons 0nown #s
!#rs 0ill over # 4illion people ever3 3e#r. ,o n#tions w#ntin2 t*e ulti4#te we#pon no 4#tter w*#t t*e !ostF # sp#!e inerti#
we#pon is t*e *ol3 2r#il.We #re no str#n2ers to t*is *orror. "t *#s visite< nu4erous 4#ss extin!tions upon us in t*e p#st. 5o4e o' t*e4 responsi$le 'or re4ovin2 up to (5^ o' li'e on E#rt* in
one swi't *#44er $low. Ever3$o<3 now 0nows t*#t t*e 4ost li0el3 !#use 'or t*e <e4ise o' t*e <inos#urs w#s # !o4et or #steroi< stri0in2 #roun< 65 4illion 3e#rs #2o.,*e3 #lso 0now t*#t t*is !re#te< #n
opportunit3 'or our s4#ll 'urr3 r#t li0e #n!estors to step in #n< t#0e !ontrol. "n '#!t its now $elieve< t*e $iosp*ere o' our pl#net *#s #l4ost st#rte< over 'ro4 s!r#t!* 4#n3 4#n3 ti4es $e!#use o' su!*
pl#net#r3 i4p#!ts.,*ere *#s $een 4u!* t#l0 o' l#te on *ow we 4i2*t <ete!t #n< even <e'en< ourselves 'ro4 su!* # !#t#strop*e in t*e ne#r 'uture $ut no$o<3 see4s to $e #s0in2 t*e next o$vious Auestion.
6oul< su!* # we#pon now $e wiel<e< $3 *u4#nsK ,*e #nswer is # <e'inite 3es.W*ile # nu!le#r explosion 4i2*t <estro3 # 4#xi4u4 r#<ius o' #pproxi4#tel3 3%04 <ue to t*e !urv#ture o' t*e e#rt*F # l#r2e
#steroi< !oul< <e!i4#te #n entire !ontinent. Asteroi<s reAuire no replenis*4ent o' 'ission#$le ele4ents or ot*er expensive 4#inten#n!e #n< t*ere #re 4illions o' t*e4 wit*in e#sier re#!* t*#n t*e 4oon."tPs
Must li0e pl#3in2 $illi#r<s. Ever3 o$Me!t in t*e universe in #!!or<#n!e wit* 7ewtoni#n l#ws tr#vels in # str#i2*t line unless #not*er 'or!e is #pplie< to it.Unli0e $illi#r<s t*ere is virtu#ll3 no 'ri!tion in sp#!e so
#n o$Me!t will 4#int#in #n3 velo!it3 #n< *e#<in2 in<e'initel3. At le#st until its re<ire!te< or so4et*in2 stops it.A sp#!e'#rin2 n#tion woul< *#ve no trou$le !#l!ul#tin2 t*e 4#t*e4#ti!#l solutions 'or pre!isel3
!*#n2in2 #n #steroi<Ps tr#Me!tor3. ,*en its # si4ple 4#tter o' nu<2in2 it. :us* in t*e ri2*t spot #n< 4#int#in t*e pressure until 3our 2un is pointe< #t #n #ppropri#te t#r2et. ,*is 4i2*t $e #!*ieve< in 4#n3
w#3s.;e#!tion 4#ss to <rive 3our inerti# we#pon !oul< $e ro!0et propell#nt or t*e #steroi<s own 4#ss. Iust #tt#!* explosives or # 'ew 4#ss <rivers. W*oever re#!*es <eep sp#!e 'irst will t*ere'ore $e '#!e<
wit* t*e !*oi!e o' utilisin2 t*ese Pinerti# we#ponsP #n< t*e te4pt#tion will $e 2re#t in<ee<. A $i2 sp#!e ro!0 !oul< wipe out #n3 ene43 #n< t*e t*re#t #lone woul< eAu#te to politi!#l !lout $e3on< *u4#n
!o4pre*ension.A !it3 !#n #'ter #ll $e ev#!u#te< i' # nu!le#r stri0e is t*re#tene<F $ut # !ountr3K"' # n#tion !*ose to !onAuer t*e *i2* 2roun< o' sp#!e t*en 0eepin2 ever3$o<3 else out o' it woul< $e #ll t*#tPs
ne!ess#r3 to ensure worl< <o4in#n!e. "nerti# we#pons !#nnot proli'er#te unless 4ore t*#n one n#tion !#n #!tu#ll3 re#!* t*e4. ,*e r#!e to sp#!e !oul< t*ere'ore en< up $ein2 # r#!e 'or !ontrol o' t*e e#rt*
#n< sol#r s3ste4. " <ou$t #n3 o' t*is *#s es!#pe< our le#<ersF $ot* e#st #n< west.Woul< t*is $e # $#< t*in2K 7o worse t*#n t*e 'irst #to4i! $o4$. ,*e '#!t t*#t itPs
un#voi<#$le i' we w#nt sp#!e tr#vel 4#0es t*e Auestion #$sur<. W*3 woul<nPt # sp#!e '#rin2 n#tion seiEe # we#pon ensurin2 it worl< <o4in#n!eK 5uppose t*is !#p#$ilit3 'ell into t*e wron2 *#n<s t*ou2* or
w#s #llowe< to $e owne< $3 4#n3 sp#!e'#rin2 n#tions. 5*oul< t*#t *#ppen we 4i2*t still see nu!le#r we#pons $e!o4e re<un<#nt #n< inerti# we#pons repl#!e t*e4 #s t*e newest t*re#t to *u4#nit3."t woul<
4e#n # new O6ol< W#rO on # s!#le to <w#r' t*e previous U5 #n< ;ussi#n one. A nu!le#r w#r <espite #ll t*e $#< press is in '#!t surviv#$le. 7ot #ll *u4#n li'e woul< $e er#<i!#te< #n< i' #ll t*e nu0es in t*e
worl< were l#un!*e< t*en we in t*e west 4i2*t $e set $#!0 # !entur3. "t woul< $e n#st3 $ut not t*e en<. "t 4i2*t see4 li0e it $ut we woul< eventu#ll3 re!over.,*e s#4e !#nPt $e s#i< 'or # sp#!e w#r w*ere
4ount#ins #re <ire!te< #t t*e e#rt*.W*en t*e 'irst sp#!e pro$e experi4ent#ll3 l#n<e< on t*e #steroi< Eros re!entl3F t*#t !elesti#l $o<ies 4otion w#s i4per!epti$l3 !*#n2e< $3 t*e 2entle $u4p o' # 4#n4#<e
sp#!e!r#'t 'or t*e ver3 'irst ti4e. A *er#l< o' 2re#ter t*in2s to !o4e 4#3$e. 7o$o<3 !#n #!!ur#tel3 pre<i!t t*e 'uture #n< " <onPt w#nt to #<< 43 n#4e to t*e lon2 list o' '#ile< seers in *istor3.,*e te!*nolo23
*owever is 4ore t*#n # pre<i!tion #n< *#s existe< 'or # ver3 lon2 ti4e. A new sp#!e r#!e loo0s set $etween t*e U5 #n< ent*usi#sti! new!o4er 6*in# w*i!* " woul< !#ll # s#'e $et. 7ow w*#t <o we <o i'
6*in# one <#3 #nnoun!es 6eres to $e on !ourse 'or t*e U5 #n< t*e3 w#nt ,#iw#n in ex!*#n2e 'or O#ssist#n!eOKWe 4i2*t trul3 le#rn w*#t it 4e#ns to see t*e s03 '#llin2."n t*e 4ovies
OAr4#2e<<onO #n< Oeep "4p#!tO we s#w nu0es s#ve t*e e#rt* in 'ro4 $ot* # ro2ue #steroi< #n< # !o4et. :er*#ps it will
ironi!#ll3 prove to $e t*e ot*er w#3 #roun<. ,*e t*re#t o' 2eno!i<e 'ro4 sp#!e 4i2*t $e persu#sive enou2* to 4#0e n#tions
<is#r4.Ulti4#tel3 #vertin2 # 'uture nu!le#r w#r. Expensive nu!le#r w#r*e#<s woul< $e!o4e se!on< r#te
we#pons.Expensive #n< re<un<#nt ones in t*e '#!e o' t*#t 'irepower.
his argu6ent pro2es we contro- uniIueness 4 asteroi.s wi-- ine2ita1-0 strike earth with or without inertia weapons
4 on-0 techno-og0 gets us into space which is ke0 to sur2i2e asteroi. strikes
22
2009
A2H I!E"IA WEAPO!S
3irecting an asteroi. at earth wou-. reIuire too 6uch energ0 4 it is a s6a-- risk an. is re.un.ant with nukes
Space Po-ic0 in 02 BJ@oo0 ;eviewN ,#r2et E#rt*LF -olu4e 1&F "ssue 1F Fe$ru#r3F
*ttp8//#$o$.li$s.u2#.e<u/$o$0/!!!/!!/215/2.*t4lC
,*ere is still t*e Auestion #s to w*#t !oul< or s*oul< $e <one i' #n i4p#!t t*re#t is <is!overe<. ,*e ?", :roMe!t "!#rus in
1(6% !#l!ul#te< t*#t six 5#turn - l#un!*ers !#rr3in2 1// nu!le#r w#r*e#<s woul< $e nee<e< to <ivert t*#t #steroi< i' it
$e!#4e # *#E#r<F #s in its present or$it it !on!eiv#$l3 !oul<. 5#turn - is no lon2er #v#il#$le $ut # si4il#r e''ort !oul< no
<ou$t $e 4ounte<F 2iven su''i!ient w#rnin2. ,*e pro$le4 is t*e be'le!tion ile44#P8 i' 3ou !#n <e'le!t #steroi<s or
!o4ets #w#3 'ro4 t*e E#rt*F t*#t r#ises t*e possi$ilit3 o' <e'le!tin2 t*e4 tow#r<s it. un!#n 5teelPs #nswer to t*#t is not to
$uil< su!* # s3ste4 until #n #!tu#l t*re#t is <ete!te<F $ut t*erePs still t*e possi$ilit3 o' t*in2s sne#0in2 up on us8 one re#son
w*3 wePre still #r2uin2 #$out t*e n#ture o' t*e ,un2us0# o$Me!t in 1(/& is t*#t it #ppro#!*e< 'ro4 t*e <ire!tion o' t*e 5un
#n< w#snPt seen until it entere< t*e #t4osp*ere. W#t!*in2 'or t*#t woul< reAuire etern#l vi2il#n!e in sp#!e #s well #s on
E#rt*F #n< we 0now *ow Aui!0l3 2overn4ents tire o' su!* t*in2s8 t*e U5 #<4inistr#tion turne< o'' t*e s!ien!e st#tions le't
$3 #stron#uts on t*e ?oon onl3 5 3e#rs #'ter ApolloF #n< !#n!elle< t*e 5e#r!* 'or Extr#terrestri#l "ntelli2en!e lon2 $e'ore
t*ere w#s # re#listi! !*#n!e o' su!!ess. @ut t*ose o' us w*o woul< li0e to see <e'le!tion s3ste4s <evelope< now !#n t#0e
*e#rt 'ro4 # !ontri$ution to t*e 2//1 6*#rter*ouse !on'eren!e on @ritis* ro!0etr3 $3 #vi< As*er #n< 7i2el )ollow#3.
,*e3 4#<e *e#<lines wit* #n outline o' w*#t it woul< t#0e to $rin2 <own # 5//14 #steroi< on ,el'or< #n< <ev#st#te
En2l#n< 'ro4 t*e 5!ottis* @or<ers to evon. "t w#s wort* #tten<in2 Must to witness t*e stunne< silen!e in w*i!* veter#ns o'
@rit#inPs nu!le#r we#pons pro2r#44e *e#r< <et#ils o' *ow # sin2le #steroi<F un<er 4#levolent !ontrolF !oul< re<u!e t*e U+
to ru$$le. As one &/13e#r1ol< re4#r0e<F O"' it t#0es 12 3e#rs #n< 15 nu!le#r w#r*e#<s to $rin2 <own #n #steroi< on usF w*3
not Must use t*e we#pons in t*e 'irst pl#!eKO >n t*e 4ore serious level o' preventin2 t*e i4p#!tsF #not*er ol<1ti4er
re4#r0e< t*#t t*e U+ s*#re o' t*e events woul<nPt p#3 'or # new *ousin2 est#teF let #lone w*#t it woul< !ost to re$uil< t*e
!ountr3 #'ter su!* #n o!!urren!e. @ut t*e stu<3 <e4onstr#tes t*#t usin2 #steroi<s #s we#pons t#0es 4u!* 4ore e''ort t*#n
si4pl3 turnin2 t*e4 #si<e 'ro4 E#rt*F so t*e e'le!tion ile44# *#s lost 4u!* o' its 'or!e.
Cra2it0 tractors so-2e the i6pact
!ew Scientist in 50; BJ9=r#vit3 ,r#!tor9 to e'le!t E#rt* @oun< Asteroi<sLF 7ove4$er (F
*ttp8//www.news!ientist.!o4/#rti!le.nsKi<U<n&2(1_'ee<"<Uonline1newsQrss2/C
7A5A s!ientists *#ve !o4e up wit* # surprisin2l3 si4ple 3et e''e!tive w#3 to <e'le!t #n E#rt*1$oun< #steroi< p#r0 #
l#r2e sp#!e!r#'t !lose $3 #n< let 2r#vit3 <o t*e wor0.
:revious su22estions *#ve 'o!use< on <e'le!tin2 #n in!o4in2 #steroi< wit* nu!le#r explosions. @ut 7A5A experts $elieve
# O2r#vit3 tr#!torO s*oul< $e #$le to per'or4 t*e s#4e 'e#t $3 !re#tin2 #n invisi$le towline to tu2 t*e ro!0 o'' its <e#<l3
!ourse.
Asteroi. .e*-ection so-2es asteroi.s
Space)co6 in 50: B;o$ert ;o3 @rittF 5!ien!e WriterF J7ew 6os4i! e'ense "<e#8 Fi2*t Asteroi<s wit* Asteroi<sLF Iune
2/F *ttp8//www.sp#!e.!o4/s!ien!e#strono43//6/62/Qs!ien!eQtues<#3.*t4lC
7o #steroi<s #re presentl3 0nown to $e on !ollision !ourses wit* E#rt*. @ut existin2 *oles in t*e 2roun< su22est t*#t
inevit#$l3 one will eventu#ll3 $e 'oun<. ,*ere is no 'ir4 pl#n 'or *ow to <e'le!t or <estro3 #n in!o4in2 #steroi<F t*ou2*
s!ientists *#ve pon<ere< 'irin2 ro!0ets #t t*e4F 4ovin2 t*e4 2entl3 wit* sol#r s#ilsF or nu<2in2 t*e4 wit* nu!le#r
explosions. .o!0 #n< lo#< ,*e new i<e# is to !#pture # rel#tivel3 s4#ll #steroi<Tper*#ps 1// 'eet B3/ 4etersC wi<eT$3
sen<in2 # ro$ot to it. ,*e ro$ot woul< *e#ve 4#teri#l 'ro4 t*e #steroi<Ps sur'#!e into sp#!eF #n< t*e re#!tion 'or!e woul<
2r#<u#ll3 <ire!t t*e #steroi< to # .#2r#n2e pointF one o' # *#n<'ul o' no<es #lon2 E#rt*Ps or$it w*ere t*e 2r#vit3 o' E#rt*
#n< t*e 5un $#l#n!e out. 5!ientists 0now t*#t o$Me!ts !#n $e 0ept st#$le #t # .#2r#n2e point wit* little or no ener23. ,*e
!#pture< ro!03 we#pon woul< $e *el< t*ereF tr#velin2 #roun< t*e 5un #*e#< o' or $e*in< t*e E#rt*F *el< until nee<e<.
,*enF i' # l#r2e #steroi< t*re#tens to *it usF t*e s4#ll one is 4ove< into its p#t*F usin2 t*e s#4e *e#vin2 te!*niAue. ,*e
ro!0s !olli<eF #n< t*e $i2 one is $ro0en into so4ew*#t less *#r4'ull $its. ,*e !ollision <isperses t*e 'r#24ents o' t*e
in!o4in2 #steroi<F so t*#t not #ll o' t*e4 *it t*e pl#net.
2&
2009
A2H "O3S $"OM CO3 4 3E$E!SE
Space Weapons are a-- h0pe 4 the0 won5t actua--0 pan out
C-o1a- Securit0 0& BJU.5. t*e le#<er in w#r pl#ns 'or sp#!eFL %/2&F *ttp8//www.2lo$#lse!urit3.or2/or2/news/2//3//3/%2&1
sp#!e/1.*t4F +un#lC
5p#!e we#pons !#n $e <ivi<e< into t*ree !#te2ories8 t*ose t*#t woul< <e'en< #2#inst $#llisti! 4issilesN t*ose t*#t woul<
#tt#!0 or <e'en< s#tellitesF #n< t*ose t*#t woul< #tt#!0 t#r2ets on E#rt*. @oein2 is #lre#<3 $uil<in2 # protot3pe Air$orne
.#ser 11 # 4o<i'ie< %4% <esi2ne< to s*oot # l#ser $e#4 'ro4 its nose #n< $low up $#llisti! 4issiles in t*eir $oost p*#se.
Assu4in2 t*e te!*nolo23 wor0sF t*e next step !oul< $e puttin2 # l#ser in or$itF w*ere it !oul< $e #i4e< #t ene43 4issilesF
s#tellitesF #ir!r#'tF per*#ps 2roun< t#r2ets eventu#ll3. A v#riet3 o' #ntis#tellite we#pons !oul< <estro3F $lin< or M#4 ene43
s#tellites. ,*e3 !oul< $e l#un!*e< 'ro4 t*e 2roun<F 'ro4 *i2*1'l3in2 #ir!r#'t or 'ro4 ot*er s#tellites. 5o4e 4i2*t $e
<esi2ne< to si4pl3 !r#s* into ene43 s#tellites. .#sers 4i2*t wor0 $estF $e!#use $3 $lin<in2 r#t*er t*#n <estro3in2
s#tellitesF t*e3 woul< not 'ill lower E#rt* or$its wit* <e$ris t*#t ot*er sp#!e!r#'t 4i2*t run into. >r$itin2 we#pons !#p#$le
o' #tt#!0in2 E#rt* t#r2ets !oul< in!lu<e l#sersF 4issiles or non1explosive proMe!tiles li0e t*e so1!#lle< O;o<s 'ro4 =o<O
propos#l 11 #n or$itin2 pl#t'or4 t*#t woul< sen< s#tellite12ui<e< tun2sten ro<s s!re#4in2 tow#r< E#rt* #t # 4o4entPs
noti!e. 5i4pl3 $3 virtue o' t*eir spee< #n< wei2*tF t*e ro<s !oul< <estro3 *#r<ene< $un0ers 'our stories un<er2roun<. ?ost
o' t*ese we#pons #re in rel#tivel3 e#rl3 st#2es o' rese#r!* #n< <evelop4entF #n< 4#n3 4#3 never p#n out 'or te!*ni!#lF
politi!#l or 'in#n!i#l re#sons. @ut t*e :ent#2on see4s <eter4ine< to o''er so4e o' t*ese sp#!e tools to U.5. poli!3 4#0ers
wit*in t*e <e!#<e.
Co. "o.s aren5t *easi1-e 4 6u-tip-e reasons
Week-0 Stan.ar. 0; B?i!*#el =ol<'#r$F J,*e ;o<s 'ro4 =o<FL 6/&F
*ttp8//www.wee0l3st#n<#r<.!o4/6ontent/:u$li!/Arti!les///////////5/%//o0l0t.#spF 0un#lC
,*e ro<s 4#3 in<ee< $e 4ore s!ien!e 'i!tion t*#n s!ien!e. ,*e3 #re #t le#st 1/ 3e#rs #w#3 'ro4 $ein2 oper#tion#lF #n< t*e
!ost o' l#un!*in2 *e#v3 tun2sten ro<s into or$it woul< $eF wellF #strono4i!#l. >t*er 'in#n!i#l !*#llen2es in!lu<e t*e
s#tellitePs O#$sentee1r#tioFO w*i!* re'ers to nu4$er o' s#tellitesF or in t*is !#se $un<les o' ro<sF w*i!* woul< $e ne!ess#r3 to
#ssure proxi4it3 to t*e t#r2et.
"o.s *ro6 Co. are in*easi1-e an. aren5t 1eing *un.e.
,*eres# Bitchens/ ire!tor o' 6" #n< *e#< o' t*e 5p#!e 5e!urit3 :roMe!tF ?i!*#el =at<,B06anF ;ese#r!* Assist#nt
#t t*e )enr3 .. 5ti4son 6enterF an. Ie''re3 %ewisF ire!tor o' t*e 7u!le#r 5tr#te23 #n< 7onproli'er#tion "niti#tive #t t*e
7ew A4eri!# Foun<#tionF 0: BJU.5. 5:A6E WEA:>75 @i2 "ntentionsF .ittle Fo!usFL ?#r!*F 7onproli'er#tion ;eview
-ol. 13 7. 1F *ttp8//!ns.4iis.e<u/pu$s/npr/vol13/131/131*it!*ens.p<'F +un#lC
6on!epts 'or *3pervelo!it3 ro< $un<les*ni!0n#4e< VV;o<s 'ro4 =o<99**#ve existe< sin!e #t le#st t*e 1(&/s un<er
<i''erent n#4esF su!* #s VV.on2 ;o< :enetr#tors.99 =ener#ll3F t*e !on!ept involves # !onstell#tion o' s#tellitesF e#!*
*ousin2 sever#l tun2sten ro<s. Up to 2/ 'eet lon2 #n< #$out # 'oot in <i#4eterF t*ese ro<s woul< l#un!* 'ro4 sp#!e #t
extre4el3 *i2* spee<sF stri0in2 un<er2roun< t#r2ets wit* t*e 'or!e o' # s4#ll nu!le#r we#pon. %4 )oweverF stu<ies o' t*is
!on!ept *#ve s*own t*#t #lt*ou2* ;o<s 'ro4 =o< #re t*eoreti!#ll3 possi$leF t*ere #re $ot* p*3si!s #n< en2ineerin2
!*#llen2es t*#t 4#3 si4pl3 $e i4possi$le to over!o4e. %5 espite t*e in!lusion o' *3pervelo!it3 ro< $un<les in t*e 2//3
,r#ns'or4#tion Fli2*t :l#nF we <o not see #n3 evi<en!e in Air For!e $u<2et <o!u4ents to su22est rese#r!* on su!* #
pro2r#4 is $ein2 'un<e<.
28
2009
A2H "O3S $"OM CO3 4 O$$E!SE
Co. "o.s ke0 to .eter Iranian pro-i*
Week-0 Stan.ar. 0; B?i!*#el =ol<'#r$F J,*e ;o<s 'ro4 =o<FL 6/&F
*ttp8//www.wee0l3st#n<#r<.!o4/6ontent/:u$li!/Arti!les///////////5/%//o0l0t.#spF 0un#lC
6le#rl3 t*e ro<s #re # 'irst1stri0eF o''ensive we#pon. ,*e n#tionPs #2in2 'leet o' "6@?sF #n< its 4ore 4o<ern >*io1!l#ss
su$4#rines11e#!* !#rr3in2 24 ,ri<ent 4issiles11will serve #s #n #<eAu#te nu!le#r <eterrent well into t*e 21st !entur3F $ut
nu!le#r we#pons !#nnot <eter ro2ue st#tes 'ro4 <evelopin2 t*eir own nu!le#r #rsen#ls. "r#n *#s use< <eepl3 $urie<
'#!ilitiesF su!* #s t*e one in 7#t#nEF to s*elter its nu!le#r pro2r#4 'ro4 #n #ss#ult si4il#r to "sr#elPs r#i< on "r#APs >sir#0
'#!ilities. ,*is *#s li4ite< A4eri!#Ps options 'or intervention. A !onvention#l #tt#!0 on su!* '#!ilities 4i2*t su!!ee< in
settin2 t*e "r#ni#n pro2r#4 $#!0 # 'ew 3e#rsF $ut <ue to t*e presu4e< <ispers#l o' eAuip4ent over # nu4$er o' sites #!ross
t*e "sl#4i! ;epu$li!F onl3 2oo< intelli2en!e #n< # 2re#t <e#l o' lu!0 woul< eli4in#te t*e t*re#t entirel3. An< w*ile #
nu!le#r #tt#!0 !oul< $e t#!ti!#ll3 su!!ess'ulF it is politi!#ll3 unvi#$le. A 'ew well1pl#!e< tun2sten ro<sF *oweverF woul<
2u#r#ntee t*e <estru!tion o' t*e t#r2ete< '#!ilities B#ssu4in2 ti4el3 #n< #!!ur#te intelli2en!eC.
hat goes nuc-ear
A--ison in E: B=r#*#4F ire!tor o' t*e @el'er 6enter 'or 5!ien!e #n< "ntern#tion#l A''#irs #t )#rv#r<9s +enne<3 5!*ool o'
=overn4entF @oston 2lo$eF J,*e 7i2*t4#re ,*is ,i4eLF 3112F ./7C
@#rr3 :osenF pro'essor o' politi!#l s!ien!e #t ?",F *#s presente< t*e 4ost !o2ent #r2u4ent 'or t*e proposition t*#t Owe
!oul< re#<il3 4#n#2e # nu!le#r "r#n.O Writin2 re!entl3 on ,*e 7ew Gor0 ,i4es op1e< p#2eF *e i<enti'ie< #n< re'ute< t*e
two 4ost !o44onl3 !ite< re#sons 'or opposin2 # nu!le#r "r#n8 t*#t it woul< #tte4pt to <estro3 "sr#el or stri0e t*e Unite< 5t#tes.
5u!* #n #!tionF *e ri2*tl3 #r2uesF woul< $e sui!i<#l 'or t*e "r#ni#n re2i4e. "n eit*er !#seF # nu!le#r #tt#!0 woul< tri22er overw*el4in2 ret#li#tion t*#t !oul< en< li'e in :ersi# 'or # !entur3 to !o4e. Get
:osenPs #tte4pt to <e#l wit* # t*ir< !on!ern1n#4el3F "r#nPs tr#ns'er o' nu!le#r we#pons to terrorists w*o 4i2*t use t*e41is less s#tis'#!tor3. ;el3in2 on t*e 6ol< W#r lo2i! o' <eterren!eF *e #sserts t*#t O"r#n
woul< *#ve to worr3 t*#t t*e vi!ti4 woul< <is!over t*e we#ponPs ori2in #n< visit # terri$le reven2e on "r#n.O Worr3F 3es. @ut "sr#el #n< t*e U5 *#ve to worr3 even 4ore #$out #n "r#ni#n presi<ent w*o
<enies t*e )olo!#ust #n< #sserts t*#t O"sr#el 4ust $e wipe< o'' t*e 4#p.O ?i2*t *e not #lso $elieve t*#t *e !oul< sne#0 # we#pon to Al D#e<#F )#4#sF or )eE$oll#* wit* no 'in2erprintsK ,e*r#n 4i2*t not $e
overl3 !on!erne< #$out 2ettin2 !#u2*t1#n< wit* 2oo< re#son. "' # terrorist explo<e< # nu!le#r $o4$ in ,el Aviv or @ostonF "r#n woul< not $e t*e onl3 suspe!te< sour!e. ,*e $o4$ !oul< *#ve !o4e 'ro4
:#0ist#nF ;ussi#F or elsew*ere in t*e 'or4er 5oviet UnionF w*ere t*ous#n<s o' potenti#l nu!le#r we#pons #re vulner#$le to t*e't. ,*e U5 2overn4ent is #!tivel3 pursuin2 i4prove4ents in its nu!le#r 'orensi!
!#p#$ilit3 to in!re#se t*e li0eli*oo< t*#t it !oul< i<enti'3 t*e 'issile 4#teri#l t*#t powere< # terroristPs $o4$. @ut itPs wort* notin2 t*#t 4ore t*#n two 3e#rs #'ter .i$3#Ps +*#<#'3 <is!lose< *is nu!le#r
#!tivitiesF t*e U5 *#s 3et to !on!lu<e w*i!* n#tion provi<e< *i4 wit* enou2* ur#niu4 *ex#'luori<e to 4#0e # nu!le#r $o4$. @e'ore #!!eptin2 t*e #nswer t*#t t*e U5 !#n
<e#l wit* #n "r#ni#n nu!le#r $o4$F 'our 'urt*er ris0s 4ust $e wei2*e<8 t*e t*re#t o' proli'er#tionF t*e <#n2er o' #n #!!i<ent#l or un#ut*oriEe< nu!le#r l#un!*F
t*e ris0 o' t*e't o' #n "r#ni#n we#pon or 4#teri#lsF #n< t*e prospe!t o' # pree4ptive "sr#eli #tt#!0. PA !#s!#<e o' proli'er#tionP ,*e !urrent nonproli'er#tion re2i4e is # set o' #2ree4ents $etween t*e nu!le#r
O*#vesO #n< O*#ve1notsFO in!lu<in2 t*e 7u!le#r 7onproli'er#tion ,re#t3F in w*i!* 1&4 n#tions #2ree< to es!*ew nu!le#r we#pons #n< existin2 nu!le#r we#pons st#tes ple<2e< to s*#rpl3 <i4inis* t*e role o'
su!* we#pons in intern#tion#l politi!s. 5in!e 1(%/F t*e tre#t3 *#s stoppe< t*e spre#< o' nu!le#r we#pons wit* onl3 two ex!eptions B"n<i# #n< :#0ist#nC. U7 5e!ret#r3 =ener#l +o'i Ann#nPs )i2*
.evel :#nel on ,*re#tsF 6*#llen2esF #n< 6*#n2e w#rne< in e!e4$er 2//4 t*#t !urrent <evelop4ents in "r#n #n< 7ort*
+ore# t*re#tene< to ero<e t*e entire nonproli'er#tion re2i4e to # point o' Oirreversi$ilit3O t*#t !oul< tri22er # O!#s!#<e o'
proli'er#tion.O "' "r#n !rosses its nu!le#r 'inis* lineF # ?i<<le E#stern !#s!#<e o' new nu!le#r we#pons st#tes !oul< pro<u!e
t*e 'irst 4ultip#rt3 nu!le#r #r4s r#!eF '#r 4ore vol#tile t*#n t*e 6ol< W#r !o4petition $etween t*e U5 #n< U55;. =iven
E23ptPs *istori! role #s t*e le#<er o' t*e Ar#$ ?i<<le E#stF t*e prospe!ts o' it livin2 un#r4e< #lon2si<e # nu!le#r :ersi# #re
ver3 low. ,*e "ntern#tion#l Ato4i! Ener23 A2en!3Ps reports o' !l#n<estine nu!le#r experi4ents *int t*#t 6#iro 4#3 *#ve
!onsi<ere< t*is possi$ilit3. Were 5#u<i Ar#$i# to $u3 # <oEen nu!le#r w#r*e#<s t*#t !oul< $e 4#te< to t*e 6*inese
4e<iu41r#n2e $#llisti! 4issiles it pur!*#se< se!retl3 in t*e 1(&/sF 'ew in t*e A4eri!#n intelli2en!e !o44unit3 woul< $e
surprise<. =iven its role #s t*e 4#Mor 'in#n!ier o' :#0ist#nPs !l#n<estine nu!le#r pro2r#4 in t*e 1(&/sF it is not out o' t*e Auestion t*#t ;i3#<* #n< "sl#4#$#< *#ve 4#<e se!ret #rr#n2e4ents 'or t*is
!ontin2en!3. "n 1(62F $il#ter#l !o4petition $etween t*e U5 #n< t*e 5oviet Union le< to t*e 6u$#n 4issile !risisF w*i!* *istori#ns now !#ll Ot*e 4ost <#n2erous 4o4ent in *u4#n *istor3.O A'ter t*e !risisF
:resi<ent +enne<3 esti4#te< t*e li0eli*oo< o' nu!le#r w#r #s O$etween 1 in 3 #n< even.O A 4ultip#rt3 nu!le#r #r4s r#!e in t*e ?i<<le E#st woul< $e li0e
pl#3in2 ;ussi#n roulette wit* 'ive $ullets in # six1!*#4$er revolver1<r#4#ti!#ll3 in!re#sin2 t*e li0eli*oo< o' # re2ion#l
nu!le#r w#r. A!!i<ent#l or un#ut*oriEe< nu!le#r l#un!* A new nu!le#r st#te 2oes t*rou2* # perio< o' Onu!le#r #<oles!en!eO
t*#t poses spe!i#l <#n2ers o' #!!i<ent#l or un#ut*oriEe< use1#n< "r#n woul< $e no <i''erent. W*en # st#te 'irst #!Auires #
s4#ll nu4$er o' nu!le#r we#ponsF t*ose we#pons $e!o4e # te4ptin2 t#r2et8 5u!!ess'ul #tt#!0 woul< <is#r4 #n3 !#p#!it3
to ret#li#te wit* nu!le#r we#pons. Fe#rin2 pree4ptionF new nu!le#r we#pons st#tes r#tion#ll3 #<opt loose !o44#n< #n<
!ontrol #rr#n2e4ents. @ut !ontrol #rr#n2e4ents loose enou2* to 2u#r< #2#inst <e!#pit#tion in*erentl3 4e#n 4ore 'in2ers
on 4ore tri22ers #n< !onseAuentl3 4ore prospe!ts o' # nu!le#r we#pons l#un!*.
2;
2009
A2H $A%SE @A7UUMS
heir author5s argu6ents a1out K*a-se 2acuu6sL are high-0 unrea-istic
"ei--0/ 1999 BIo*n I.F Aut*or o' Apo!ol3pse #n< FutureF I.. =eor2etown .#wF J;eview o' ,*e En< o' t*e Worl<8 ,*e
5!ien!e #n< Et*i!s o' )u4#n Extin!tionL *ttp8//www.Mo*nreill3.in'o/teotw.*t4C
@e t*is #s it 4#3F 4u!* o' t*e $oo0 is # !o4pil#tion o' su!* perils. As t*e 'irst pu$lis*erPs reMe!tion letter 'or t*e @oo0 o'
;evel#tion s#i<F 4ost o' t*is is <eriv#tive. We 2l#n!e $rie'l3 #t t*e peoplePs $elove< #steroi<sF swe#t t*rou2* #not*er
expl#n#tion o' t*e =reen*ouse E''e!t #n< t#0e t*e pulse o' !urrent prospe!ts 'or # univers#l 0iller pl#2ue. ,*e 4ost
intri2uin2 o' t*e te!*nolo2i!#l <#n2ers to *u4#nit3Ps lon2evit3 is $#se< on t*e su22estion t*#t our universe !oul<
!on!eiv#$l3 *#ve # O'#lse v#!uu4.O "n t*#t !#seF experi4ents in *i2* te4per#ture p*3si!s 4i2*t !oll#pse t*e 4et#st#$ilit3
o' t*e Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!#l 'oolPs p#r#<ise in w*i!* we *#ve $een livin2. ,*is woul< en< not Must t*e worl<F $ut t*e
universe. Expl#inin2 t*e p*3si!s $e*in< t*is O<#n2erO woul< spoil t*e 'unF sin!e it is prett3 !le#r t*#t t*e <#n2er is
!*i4eri!#l. 5tillF it #l#r4s so4e people enou2* t*#t t*e3 pi!0et Fer4il#$ #t @#t#vi#F "llinoisF to <e4#n< t*e !losure o' #
p#rti!le #!!eler#tor t*ere.
2:
2009
A2H IME "A@E%
urn 4 i6e tra2e- 6eans we can go 1ack in ti6e an. warn peop-e a1out super,weapons inc-u.ing the risk o* ti6e
tra2e- which so-2es e2er0 other spark scenario an. 6eans we can gi2e super *uture techno-og0 to peop-e that he-ps
the6 so-2es resource scarcit0 an. pre2ent nuc-ear war
i6e ra2e- Aa. I6pacts Are 7onceptua--0 Incoherent 4 I* ti6e tra2e- is theoretica--0 possi1-e 1ut .estro0s the
uni2erse so6eone in the *uture wou-. ha2e trie. to tra2e- 1ack an. .estro0e. the space,ti6e o* the uni2erse o*
which we are a part 4 the *act that the uni2erse e+ists in its present state pro2es no one has tra2e-e. in ti6e now or
in the *uture which 6eans 0our i6pact won5t an. can5t happen
i6e tra2e- won5t .estro0 space ti6e 4 i* its possi1-e it wou-. prec-u.e causa-it0 2io-ations
!ew Scientist in 50; B?#r0 @u!*#n#nF J7o p#r#<ox 'or ti4e tr#velersLF Iune 1&F *ttp8//www.news!ientist.!o4/#rti!le.nsK
i<U<n%535_'ee<"<Uonline1newsQrss2/C
,)E l#ws o' p*3si!s see4 to per4it ti4e tr#velF #n< wit* itF p#r#<oxi!#l situ#tions su!* #s t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t people !oul<
2o $#!0 in ti4e to prevent t*eir own $irt*. @ut it turns out t*#t su!* p#r#<oxes 4#3 $e rule< out $3 t*e weir<ness in*erent
in l#ws o' Au#ntu4 p*3si!s. 5o4e solutions to t*e eAu#tions o' EinsteinPs 2ener#l t*eor3 o' rel#tivit3 le#< to situ#tions in
w*i!* sp#!e1ti4e !urves $#!0 on itsel'F t*eoreti!#ll3 #llowin2 tr#vellers to loop $#!0 in ti4e #n< 4eet 3oun2er versions o'
t*e4selves. @e!#use su!* ti4e tr#vel sets up p#r#<oxesF 4#n3 rese#r!*ers suspe!t t*#t so4e p*3si!#l !onstr#ints 4ust
4#0e ti4e tr#vel i4possi$le. 7owF p*3si!ists #niel =reen$er2er o' t*e 6it3 Universit3 o' 7ew Gor0 #n< +#rl 5voEil o'
t*e -ienn# Universit3 o' ,e!*nolo23 in Austri# *#ve s*own t*#t t*e 4ost $#si! 'e#tures o' Au#ntu4 t*eor3 4#3 ensure t*#t
ti4e tr#vellers !oul< never #lter t*e p#stF even i' t*e3 #re #$le to 2o $#!0 in ti4e.
urn 4 i6e tra2e- .e*eats terroris6 4 an0one who opposes ti6e tra2e- hates *ree.o6
USA O3AD in 502 B+evin ?#ne3F J:er*#ps ti4e tr#vel !oul< solve our terroris4 pro$le4sLF 5epte4$er 1&F ./7/
As :resi<ent @us* t*re#tens "r#A #n< #2ents $ust terror !ells in rur#l 7ew Gor0F t*e n#tion is overloo0in2 one tot#l solution
to terroris4. A ti4e 4#!*ine. "tPs t*e one possi$le te!*nolo23 t*#t *ol<s # pro4ise o' !o4pletel3 <e'e#tin2 terroristsF $3
stoppin2 t*e4 $e'ore t*e3 !#rr3 out #n #!t. "' we *#< oneF 'e<er#l 4#rs*#ls !oul< 2o $#!0 to t*e 4ornin2 o' 5ept. 11F 2//1F
#n< #rrest t*e terrorists $e'ore t*e3 $o#r<e< t*ose pl#nes. "n # 4ove wit* $ro#<er i4pli!#tionsF per*#ps # spe!i#l #2ent
!oul< $e sent 'urt*er into t*e p#st to prevent >s#4# $in .#<enPs p#rents 'ro4 ever 4eetin2. 5o 4#3$e itPs ti4e 'or t*e next
?#n*#tt#n :roMe!t. We s*oul< pull to2et*er U.5. s!ientists 'or # !r#s* pro2r#4 in ti4e tr#vel. "nste#< o' inventin2 t*e
ulti4#te we#pon o' 4#ss <estru!tionF t*e3 !oul< !re#te t*e ulti4#te we#pon o' pinpoint prevention. ,*e i<e# woul< see4
!r#E3F ex!ept itPs not 11 #t le#st in t*eor3. "n re!ent 3e#rsF rese#r!* $3 respe!te< s!ientists *#s s*own t*#t t*e l#ws o' p*3si!s
#llow 'or $#!0w#r< ti4e tr#vel. :opul#r !os4olo2ist 5tep*en )#w0in2 *#s !*#n2e< *is 4in< #n< now s#3s ti4e tr#vel is
possi$leF #'ter lon2 $elievin2 ot*erwise. >t*er s!ientists 'ro4 institutions su!* #s t*e 6#li'orni# "nstitute o' ,e!*nolo23 #n<
"@? ;ese#r!* #re s#3in2 t*#t ti4e tr#vel see4s to $e !onsistent wit* t*e w#3 t*e universe wor0s.
27
2009
A2H IME "A@E%
i6e tra2e- is i6possi1-e
he Scots6an in 599 BIi4 =il!*ristF J",P5 >FF"6"A.. 5!ientists *#ve !on!lu<e< t*#t ti4e !#n 4ove in onl3 one <ire!tion
'orw#r<LF e!e4$er 3F ./7C
5o t*#tPs it t*en. 5#3 2oo<$3e to t*#t 2litterin2 !r3st#l 4#!*ine #sse4$le< in t*e Wellsi#n $#se4ent o' 3our i4#2in#tionF orF
'or t*#t 4#tterF to ti4e 1tr#vellin2 e.ore#n spe!i#ls or !#len<#r1<e'3in2 poli!e $oxes. ;esi2n 3oursel' to t*e 'uture8 livin2 in t*e p#stPs # non1st#rterF <eM# vu # te4por#l re< *errin2.
,*is news !#4e #s # $it o' # $low. :erson#ll3F " *#venPt *#< #s 3et #n3 experien!e o' ti4e #!tu#ll3 4ovin2 $#!0w#r<s 1 #lt*ou2* on re'le!tion t*ere *#ve $een 4o4ents w*en " woul<
*#ve li0e< it to <o so 1 $ut one 0eeps #n open 4in<. An< to t*in0 t*#tF Must two or t*ree 3e#rs #2oF none ot*er t*#n t*e A4#Ein2 5tep*en
)#w0in2 #<4itte< pu$li!l3F w*ile $r#n<is*in2 # <e4#n< 'or 4ore 2overn4ent spen<in2 on rese#r!* into O!lose< ti4e1li0e
!urvesOF t*#t !ontr#r3 to *is lon21*el< viewsF *e t*ou2*t ti4e1tr#vel 4i2*t $e possi$le #'ter #ll. ,*#t 'ro4 t*e #ut*or o' A @rie' )istor3 o'
,i4eF w*o *#< on!e pointe< out t*#t t*e ri<i!ulousness o' t*e w*ole !on!ept w#s *i2*li2*te< $3 # sin2ul#r l#!0 o' inv#<in2 *or<es o' tourists 'ro4 t*e 'uture. @ut t*ere it w#sF l#st wee0F
in *#r< print B#ll ri2*tF t*e "n<epen<entF i' 3ou 4ust 0nowC8 1// s!ientists 'ro4 nu4erous !ountries *#< pu$lis*e< t*e
results o' # t*ree13e#r proMe!t to <e4onstr#te t*#tF in our universe #t le#stF ti4e 4oves in onl3 one <ire!tionF #n< t*#t <ire!tion is
'orw#r<. Worl<1we#r3 !3ni! " 4#3 $eF $ut " 'elt # little twin2e #t t*#tF t*ou2*t " *e#r< so4ew*ere t*e <is4#lF 4u''le< !lun0 o' 3et #not*er little <oor $ein2 s*ut on t*e re#l4s o' t*e possi$le8 on
@r#<$ur3esAue <inos#ur s#'#ris into t*e 6ret#!eousN on 6onne!ti!ut G#n0ees in +in2 Art*urPs !ourtF on s#ll3in2 'ort* to prevent =#vrilo :rin!ip 'ro4 'irin2 t*e s*ot t*#t 0ille< Ar!*<u0e Fr#nE Fer<in#n<
#n< ten 4illion ot*ersF or to reverse t*e result #t Flo<<enN on t*rowin2 # sp#nner into t*e evolution#r3 wor0s $3 tre#<in2 on # Iur#ssi! $utter'l3 ... ,*e #rti!le 4#<e 'or *e#v3 2oin2. "
re#< it on!e over # pint o' &/ s*illin2F t*en #2#in over # l#r2e $l#!0 !o''eeF neit*er o' w*i!* p#rti!ul#rl3 lu$ri!#te< its
in2ress into t*e little 2re3 !ellsF #s t*e3 strove to !o4e to 2rips wit* t*e v#2#ries o' !*#r2e p#rit3 ti4e s344etr3 #n< w*3
4#tter #n< #nti4#tter <i<nPt eli4in#te e#!* ot*er $#!0 #t t*e @i2 @#n2. "Pll sp#re 3ou t*e 2or3 <et#ils #$out 0#ons #n<
#nti0#onsF pions #n< neutrinos8 su''i!e to s#3 t*#tF #4i< t*e te4por#l str#4#s* o' w*iEEin2 p#rti!les #n< #ntip#rti!lesF "
2#t*ere< t*#t t*e s!ientists *#< $een viol#tin2 !*#r2e p#rti!le s344etr3 Bunspe#0#$le <ee<RCF usin2 *i2*1ener23
#!!eler#tors. ,*eir !on!lusion w#s t*#tF so '#r #s ti4e w#s !on!erne<F #nti4#tter w#s 4ore li0el3 to turn into 4#tter 1
evi<en!e o' t*e irrevo!#$le 'low o' ti4e. An< t*e re#sonF #pp#rentl3F w*3 our universe is # 4#tter1<o4in#te< sort o' pl#!eF
t*ou2* weP< #ll $e in # ri2*t 4ess i' it w#snPt. An< t*#t w#s w*3 ti4e tr#vel w#s i4possi$le. OGou 4i2*t $e #$le to pl#3
tri!0s wit* ti4e #t t*e sin2le1#to4 levelF $ut not in t*e l#r2er worl<FO pronoun!e< one o' t*e viol#tors.
More e2i.ence 4 ti6e tra2e- isn5t happening
he In.epen.ent M%on.onN in 599 B6*#rles Art*urF J5!ien!e8 7o 4ore $#!0 to t*e 'utureN ,o t*e <is4#3 o' s!ien!e 'i!tion
'#nsF p*3si!ists *#ve prove< ti4e onl3 4oves 'orw#r<sLF 7ove4$er 2%F ./7C
@ut e#rlier t*is 4ont* 1// s!ientists 'ro4 nine !ountries pu$lis*e< t*e results o' # t*ree13e#r !oll#$or#tive proMe!t. "t
<e4onstr#te<F 'or t*e 'irst ti4eF t*#t in our universe #t le#stF ti4e 4oves in onl3 one <ire!tion. ,*e experi4entF !#lle< 6:1
.EA; B6*#r2e :#rit3 experi4ent in t*e .ow Ener23 Antiproton ;in2CF w#s !#rrie< out to stu<3 t*e <i''eren!es $etween 4#tter #n< #nti4#tterF t*e
O!onverseO o' 4#tter. Anti4#tter p#rti!les *#ve t*e s#4e 4#ss $ut opposite !*#r2e B#n< ot*er !*#r#!teristi!sC to t*eir 4#tter !ounterp#rtsN in t*eor3F ever3 4#tter p#rti!le *#s #n #ntip#rti!le. ,*e ele!tronPs
!ounterp#rt is t*e positivel3 !*#r2e< positronF 'or ex#4ple. W*en # p#rti!le #n< its #ntip#rti!le 4eetF t*e two #nni*il#te e#!* ot*er in # $urst o' li2*t ener23. W*#t
p*3si!ists t*ere'ore 'in< str#n2e #$out #nti4#tter is its 2ener#l #$sen!e in t*e universe. ,*eor3 su22ests t*#t t*e @i2 @#n2 s*oul< *#ve !re#te< eAu#l #4ounts o' 4#tter #n< #nti4#tter. W*3 <i<nPt t*e3 eli4in#te e#!* ot*er #t t*e universePs $irt*K
O,*#t is t*e $i2 43ster3FO s#3s :ro'essor Fr#n0 6loseF 'ro4 t*e ;ut*er'or< Appleton .#$or#tor3 in i<!ot. )e is presentl3 on se!on<4ent to 6ernF t*e Europe#n .#$or#tor3 'or :#rti!le :*3si!s in =enev#F 5witEerl#n<F w*i!* le< t*e 6:1.EA;
wor0. Anti4#tter *#s not $een 'oun< O'reeO in t*e wi<er universeF <espite !#re'ul se#r!*es. >ne su22estion is t*#t ti4e #''e!ts p#rti!les #n< #ntip#rti!les <i''erentl3. E#rl3 Au#ntu4 p*3si!s #ssu4e< t*#tF li0e ot*er l#ws o' p*3si!sF su$#to4i!
re#!tions woul< $e t*e s#4e no 4#tter w*i!* w#3 ti4e 'lowe<. "' 3ou st#rte< wit* # 2roup o' p#rti!les #n< #ntip#rti!les wit* 0nown !*#r2es #n< Op#ritiesO B4e#sur#$le Au#ntities su!* #s OspinO #n< O'l#vourOCF t*en $#n2e< t*e4 to2et*er #n<
4e#sure< t*e !*#r2e #n< p#rit3 o' t*e resultin2 p#rti!lesF t*e tot#ls woul< $e t*e s#4e $e'ore #n< #'ter. :*3si!ists !#lle< t*is O6:, s344etr3O 1 'or !*#r2e p#rit3 ti4e s344etr3. )oweverF p*3si!ists #lw#3s w#nt to !*e!0 su!* #ssu4ptions wit* t*e
re#l worl<. ,*e3 !oul< not run ti4e $#!0w#r<sF $ut t*e3 !oul< experi4ent wit* #ntip#rti!les $3 preten<in2 t*#t #ntip#rti!les were Must p#rti!les 4ovin2 $#!0 in ti4e. ,estin2 t*is i<e# experi4ent#ll3 4e#nt ev#lu#tin2 t*e !*#r2e #n< p#rit3 o' ever3
p#rti!le pro<u!e< in t*ous#n<s o' *i2*1spee< p#rti!le !ollisions in *i2*1ener23 #!!eler#tors. "n 1(64 # I#p#nese te#4 <is!overe< t*#tF in so4e re#!tionsF t*e tot#ls <i''ere<. ,*is e''e!tF 0nown #s O!*#r2e p#rit3 viol#tionOF or 6: viol#tionF !entres on
#n ele!tri!#ll3 neutr#l p#rti!le !#lle< t*e + 4esonF or 0#on. "n 4ost re#!tionsF it si4pl3 $ro0e <own into t*ree pi 4esons BpionsC. @ut in # 'r#!tion o' !#sesF it <e!#3e< into onl3 two pions 1 viol#tin2 6: s344etr3. ,*e experi4ent put # $o4$
un<erne#t* t*e i<e# t*#t ti4e !oul< run in eit*er <ire!tion. For 3/ 3e#rs 6: viol#tion $ot*ere< p*3si!istsN t*e3 nee<e< 4ore power'ul p#rti!le #!!eler#tors to !on'ir4 w*#t w#s *#ppenin2. Fin#ll3F in 1((5F # set o' new experi4ents set out to test t*isF
usin2 0#ons #n< t*eir #ntip#rti!lesF #nti0#ons. ,*ese #re s*ort1live< p#rti!les pro<u!e< $3 t*e !ollision o' #ntiprotons wit* *3<ro2en #to4s. B)en!e t*e use o' t*e .ow Ener23 Antiproton ;in2 'or t*e wor0.C +#ons !#n turn into #nti0#ons 1 #n<
#nti0#ons !#n turn into 0#ons 1 until t*e3 'in#ll3 <e!#3 into #n ele!tronF # pion #n< # neutrino. @3 4e#surin2 t*e ele!tronPs ex#!t !*#r2eF o$servers !#n <eter4ine w*et*er t*e p#rent w#s # 0#on or #nti0#on. "n # p#per pu$lis*e<
l#st 4ont* in t*e Mourn#l :*3si!s .ettersF t*e intern#tion#l te#4 wor0in2 on t*e 6:1.EA; experi4ent 'oun< t*#t #nti0#ons
turne< into 0#ons 4ore o'ten t*#n 0#ons turne< into #nti0#ons. "n ot*er wor<sF wit* ti4eF #nti4#tter is 4ore li0el3 to turn
into 4#tter 1 evi<en!e o' # !lo!0 runnin2 un<er t*e '#$ri! o' t*e universe. -er3 possi$l3F t*is <i''eren!e w#s one o' t*e
re#sons our n#s!ent universe turne< into # 4#tter1<o4in#te< pl#!eF inste#< o' $ein2 snu''e< out in # $l#st o' 2#44# r#3s.
>' t*e 6:1.EA; resultsF :ro'essor 6lose s#3s8 O,*is is !on'ir4#tion t*#t ever3t*in2 we $elieve #$out t*e universe *ol<s
to2et*er.O 5o <oes t*#t 4e#n t*#t ti4e tr#vel is i4possi$leK GesF #!!or<in2 to :ro'essor 6lose. O,*e w#3 " <es!ri$e it is t*#t
w*ile 3ou 4#3 not $e #$le to tell w*i!* w#3 # 'il4 is runnin2 w*en 3ou see two $illi#r< $#lls !olli<in2F 3ouPll !ert#inl3 $e
#$le to tell i' 3ou see # w*ite $#ll s*ootin2 tow#r<s # s!#ttere< 2roup o' $#lls on # t#$leF #'ter w*i!* t*e3 2roup to2et*er
into # p3r#4i<. GouP< 0now itPs !r#E3. Gou 4i2*t $e #$le to pl#3 tri!0s wit* ti4e #t t*e sin2le1#to4 levelF $ut not in t*e
l#r2er worl<.O
29
2009
A2H IME "A@E% 4 !O E7B
i6e tra2e- is i6possi1-e 4 we are nowhere near getting the techno-og0
Cou.ar<i/ 2007 B5#r#F .ive5!ien!e 5t#'' WriterF JGou 6#nPt ,r#vel @#!0 in ,i4eF 5!ientists 5#3L ?#r!* %F
*ttp8//www.lives!ien!e.!o4/te!*nolo23//%/3/%Qti4eQtr#vel.*t4lC
"4possi$leF 'or now ?#t*e4#ti!#ll3F 3ou !#n !ert#inl3 s#3 so4et*in2 is tr#velin2 to t*e p#stF .iu s#i<. J@ut it is not
possi$le 'or 3ou #n< 4e to tr#vel $#!0w#r< in ti4eFL *e s#i<. )oweverF so4e s!ientists $elieve t*#t tr#velin2 to t*e p#st isF
in '#!tF t*eoreti!#ll3 possi$leF t*ou2* i4pr#!ti!#l. ?#3$e i' t*ere were # t*eor3 o' ever3t*in2F one !oul< solve #ll o'
Einstein9s eAu#tions t*rou2* # wor4*oleF #n< see w*et*er ti4e tr#vel is re#ll3 possi$leF +#0u s#i<. J@ut t*#t woul< reAuire
# te!*nolo23 '#r 4ore #<v#n!e< t*#n #n3t*in2 we !#n 4usterFO *e s#i<. Oon9t expe!t #n3 3oun2 inventor to #nnoun!e
to4orrow in # press rele#se t*#t *e or s*e *#s invente< # ti4e 4#!*ine in t*eir $#se4ent.L For nowF t*e onl3 <e'initive p#rt
o' tr#vel in t*e 'ourt* <i4ension is t*#t we9re steppin2 'urt*er into t*e 'uture wit* e#!* p#ssin2 4o4ent. 5o 'or t*ose
*opin2 to see E#rt* # 4illion 3e#rs 'ro4 nowF s!ientists *#ve 2oo< news. J"' 3ou w#nt to 0now w*#t t*e E#rt* is li0e one
4illion 3e#rs 'ro4 nowF "9ll tell 3ou *ow to <o t*#tFL s#i< =reeneF # !onsult#nt 'or JcMd -uFL # re!ent 4ovie t*#t <e#lt
wit* ti4e tr#vel. J@uil< # sp#!es*ip. =o ne#r t*e spee< o' li2*t 'or # len2t* o' ti4eTt*#t " !oul< !#l!ul#te. 6o4e $#!0 to
E#rt*F #n< w*en 3ou step out o' 3our s*ip 3ou will *#ve #2e< per*#ps one 3e#r w*ile t*e E#rt* woul< *#ve #2e< one
4illion 3e#rs. Gou woul< *#ve tr#vele< to E#rt*9s 'uture.L
29
2009
A2H A!I,C"A@ID WEAPO!S
1) !o i6pact 4 0our e2i.ence is ta-king a1out the e**ect o* EM ra.iation 1eing harnesse. *or in*inite energ0/ not
weapons use
2) he author o* the artic-e actua--0 a.6its that 7ook is insane an. it5s on-0 a conspirac0 theor0
;o2ers /2
BA<#4F writer 'or ,*e 5l#teF >!t. 1& 2//2F *ttp8//www.sl#te.!o4/i</2/%2%33/ JFeelin2 Anti2r#vit39s :ullLC
Un'ortun#tel3F 6oo0 str#ins *is own !re<i$ilit3 so4ew*#t. A !ouple o' wee0s #'ter *is Jane's pie!e #ppe#re<F 6oo0Ps $oo0
on #nti2r#vit3 rese#r!*F The Hunt for Zero PointF !#4e out. "n itF *e !l#i4s t*#t t*e 7#Eis $uilt #n #nti2r#vit3 <evi!e <urin2
Worl< W#r "". "ts #$sen!e 'ro4 present1<#3 s!ien!eF 6oo0 s#3sF i4plies # v#st O$l#!0O worl< o' se!ret #nti2r#vit3 #ir!r#'t
t*#t 4i2*t expl#in t*e UF>s people see over Are# 51. )ePs # !#re'ul investi2#tive reporterF $ut on!e 3ou st#rt t#l0in2 #$out
UF>s #n< 7#Ei #nti2r#vit3 3ouPre not '#r 'ro4 *i<<en tunnels un<er t*e W*ite )ouse 'ull o' liE#r<14en <is2uise< #s
Free4#sons. Even wit*out 7#EisF t*ere #re plent3 o' re#sons to <ou$t :o<0letnov. ?3 e14#ils to t*e #!!ount liste< on *is
re!ent #rti!les Bnot peer1reviewe<C went un#nswere<. Even 4ore pro$le4#ti!F " !#nPt 'in< t*e institution *e lists #s *is
#''ili#tion in ?os!ow. OEu2ene #lw#3s expresse< *is worries t*#t ot*ers !oul< !op3 *is wor0F #lt*ou2* #s '#r #s " 0now *e never #pplie< 'or # p#tentFO =iov#nni ?o<#neseF # !oll#$or#tor o'
:o<0letnovPs #t t*e Universit3 o' @olE#no in "t#l3F wrote in #n e14#il Busin2 # Western version o' :o<0letnovPs 'irst n#4eC. O7onet*elessF #t t*e s!ienti'i! level i' one w#nts # !on'ir4#tion $3 ot*ers #n< #
su!!ess'ul repli!#tionF one 4ust 2ive #ll t*e ne!ess#r3 ele4ents.O WellF 3e#*. ?o<#nese s#3s t*#t t*e !urrent version o' t*e <evi!eF now !#lle< #n Oi4pulse 2r#vit3 2ener#torFO is si4pler #n< !oul< $e $uilt
O$3 # $i21s!ien!e te#4 o' people expert in super!on<u!tivit3.O A @oein2 spo0esperson <i<nPt respon< to 'ollow1up Auestions. 5oF eit*er t*erePs not*in2 2oin2 on *ereF or itPs #n W1File. An< t*e
s!ien!eK ,en 3e#rs is # lon2 ti4e to 2o wit*out repli!#tion. 6o4$ine t*#t wit* :o<0letnovPs !#2e3 $e*#vior #n< itPs enou2*
to 4#0e even s!i1'i 2ee0s li0e 4e lose *ope. @ut li0e t*e !ore o' #n3 2oo< !onspir#!3F #nti2r#vit3 rese#r!* *#s t*e rin2 o'
pl#usi$ilit3. >ne o' t*e outst#n<in2 pro$le4s in p*3si!s #n< !os4olo23 to<#3 involves t*e existen!e o' so1!#lle< <#r0 4#tter #n< <#r0 ener23. ,*e3Pre $3 '#r t*e 4#in !onstituents o' 4#tter in t*e
universeF #n< no$o<3 0nows w*#t t*e3Pre 4#<e o'Trese#r!*ers *#ve onl3 in'erre< t*eir existen!e 'ro4 2r#vit#tion#l e''e!ts. 6o4in2 up wit* # new t*eor3 o' *ow 2r#vit3 wor0s 4i2*t expl#in t*#tF t*ou2*
itP< $e # s!ienti'i! revolution on # p#r wit* rel#tivit3. O6*#n2in2 2r#vit3 is in t*e !#r<sFO s#3s :#ul 5!*e!*terF #n #strono4er #t ?",. O@ut so '#r no onePs $een #$le to <o $etter t*#n Einstein.O 5tillF Einstein
wor0e< in # lowl3 p#tent o''i!e. ;on +o!Eor wor0s 'or 7A5A.
&) Dou5re in a .ou1-e 1in. 4
a) Po.k-etno2 actua--0 .i. 6ake this anti,gra2it0 6achine *roo6 0our artic-e/ an. it .i. nothing to .estro0 the sun
or the 6oon which pro2es 0our i6pacts *a-se/ or
1) Be5s a cra<0 ass who is -0ing an. these anti,gra2it0 6achines .on5t e+ist)
Anti,gra2it0 can5t happen 4 6ainstrea6 ph0sics agrees
5!otl#n< on 5un<#3 in V(6
B=er#l<ine ?urr#3F JAnti12r#vit3 t*eor3 t#0es # tu4$leLF 5epte4$er 22F ./7C
:.A75 'or #n #nti12r#vit3 <evi!eF w*i!* woul< revolutionise sp#!e tr#vel #n< <e'3 7ewtonPs est#$lis*e< t*ir< l#w o'
4otionF *#ve $een $rou2*t $#!0 <own to e#rt* wit* # $u4p. ;ussi#n s!ientist r Eu2ene :o<0letnov *#s wit*<r#wn #
p#per <es!ri$in2 t*e 4#!*ine w*i!* w#s <ue to $e pu$lis*e< in # le#<in2 p*3si!s Mourn#l next 4ont*. ,*e <evi!e is t*ou2*t to re<u!e t*e wei2*t
o' #n3 o$Me!t suspen<e< over it $3 up to 2^ #n<F i' :o<0letnovPs !l#i4s #re trueF !oul< $e one o' t*e 4ost r#<i!#l s!ienti'i! <is!overies in *istor3. 6ontrovers3 surroun<s :o<0letnovPs <e!isionF w*i!*
'ollowe< Aueries over t*e i<entit3 o' t*e p#perPs !o1#ut*or #n< # <eni#l $3 ,#4pere Universit3 in Finl#n<F w*ere t*e ;ussi#n s#3s *e is $#se<F t*#t t*e3 0new #n3t*in2 #$out t*e #nti12r#vit3 rese#r!*. @ut t*e
p#per su!!ee<e< in p#ssin2 t*e s!rutin3 o' t*ree re'erees #ppointe< $3 t*e Iourn#l o' :*3si!s18 Applie< :*3si!s to 'in< 'l#ws in :o<0letnovPs wor0. ,ests #re t*ou2*t to *#ve rule< out ot*er possi$ilities 'or
t*e 4#!*inePs e''e!t su!* #s #ir 'low or 4#2neti! 'iel<s. ?ost p*3si!ists #re tr#<ition#ll3 s!epti!#l #$out #nti12r#vit3 <evi!es #n< <ou$ts #re
#lre#<3 $ein2 voi!e<F <espite t*e p#perPs #!!ept#n!e $3 t*e respe!te< Mourn#l. :o<0letnov tol< 7ew 5!ientist l#st wee0 t*#t
*e stoo< $3 *is !l#i4s. O,*is is #n i4port#nt <is!over3 #n< " <onPt w#nt it to <is#ppe#rFO *e s#i<.
Po.k-etno2 is inspire. 10 Star rek 4 he5s an i.iot
7ew 5!ientist in 9/2 B)ow#r< ?e<*urstF J:uttin2 spin on it. . . .LF Fe$ru#r3 (F ./7C
,*e #nti12r#vit3 4#!*ine <es!ri$e< in :o<0letnovPs 1((2 p#per see4s to $e #l4ost i<enti!#l to t*e 2r#vit3 2ener#tors use<
on t*e st#rs*ip EnterpriseF #s <es!ri$e< on p#2e 144 o' O5t#r ,re08 ,*e 7ext =ener#tion ,e!*ni!#l ?#nu#lFO $3 ;i!0
5tern$#!* #n< ?i!*#el >0u<#F !op3ri2*t :#r#4ount :i!tures 1((1 1 ex!ept t*#t t*e O5t#r ,re0O <evi!es *#ve l#r2er
super!on<u!tin2 <is!s #n< spin # lot '#ster. >' !ourseF t*#t !#n onl3 $e # !oin!i<en!eF !#nPt it K
&0
2009
A2H A!I,C"A@ID WEAPO!S
7ook an. anti,gra2it0 theorists are crackpots 4 the0 use no citations/ no proo* an. are 1or.er-ine !a<i s06pathi<ers
?!6lureF 7o #te =iven
B+evinF ;eview o' J,*e )unt 'or Hero :ointLF Written #'ter 2//1F *ttp8//www.'orte#nti4es.!o4/review/*untEero.s*t4lC
,*e VHero :oint9 'or w*i!* 6oo0 *unts is t*e point w*ere #nti12r#vit3 te!*nolo23 #!*ieves t*e es!#pe o' #n o$Me!t 'ro4
2r#vit39s e''e!t8 w*ere it 'lies $e!#use t*ere is not*in2 to prevent it <oin2 so. )e 'in<s itF o<<l3F in t*e #!*ieve4ents o' 7#Ei s!ientists <urin2 Worl<
W#r ""F t*ou2* t*e3 *#ve never $een repli!#te< sin!e #n< 6oo0 # pro'ession#lF #n< #w#r<1winnin2F writer on #erosp#!e 4#tters never tells us
w*#t t*eir te!*nolo23 w#sF or *ow it wor0e<. An3 #tte4pt to repli!#te 6oo09s Auest is $oun< to $e 'rustr#te<. Four o' *is
pri4#r3 sour!es #reF wit*out expl#n#tionF 2iven '#lse n#4esF in!lu<in2 one V.#wren!e 6ross9F suppose<l3 # 'or4er I#nes #erosp#!e Mourn#listF Jnow # $ure#u !*ie'
'or # riv#l pu$li!#tion in Austr#li#L. V6ross9 'ee<s *i4 # r#wF un!riti!#l version o' t*e V7#Ei UF>9 4#teri#l " <e$un0e< in V:*one3 W#r'#re9 in Forte#n 5tu<ies %F #n< #pp#rentl3 s#3s J"t9s $een #roun< 'or
<e!#<esF lon2 enou2* to *#ve $een 2iven # n#4e. "n t*e tr#<eF we !#ll it t*e .e2en<.L ?ost o' t*is 4#teri#l #!tu#ll3 !o4es 'ro4 'or4er 7#Eis or l#ter
s34p#t*isersF #n< "9ve never *e#r< it !#lle< Jt*e .e2en<L. EAu#ll3 'rustr#tin2 is 6oo09s <e!ision to <o wit*out re'eren!es
or #n in<ex. ,*ere is 4u!* w#''le *ereF #n< t*e stor3 Mu4ps $#!0w#r<s #n< 'orw#r<s. ;u4ours #re presente< wit*out notin2 t*eir li0el3 st#tusF #n< unless #
re#<er *#s spent ti4e rese#r!*in2 t*e s#4e 4#teri#l 'ro4 ot*er sour!esF it woul< $e i4possi$le to 4#0e #n o$Me!tive #ssess4ent o' *is #ssertions. )is st3le so4eti4es <es!en<s 'ro4 t*e 4erel3 !re<ulous to
t*e <ownri2*t o<<. Wit*out pursuin2 t*e Auestion 'urt*erF one o' 6oo09s 43sterious sour!es en<s # !*#pter $3 s#3in2 J,*e3 were tr3in2 to $uil< # 'T0in2 ti4e 4#!*ineL. ?ore <istur$in2l3F 6oo0 sets out #
<et#ile< '#nt#s3 o' *ow t*e Bsuppose<C s!ientists wor0in2 on t*e Bsuppose<C #nti12r#vit3 Bor ti4eC 4#!*ine woul< *#ve $een s*ot #n< $urie< $3 t*e 55F in line wit* J# p#r#2r#p* or two 'ro4 t*e exe!ution
4#nu#l it *#< <r#wn up 'or t*e )olo!#ust.L ,*is t#steless p#ss#2e see4s in#ppropri#teF #t $est. For # 4#n w*o tells 4e *e *#s 2/ 3e#rs9 experien!e #s # Mourn#listF 7i!0 6oo0 is re4#r0#$l3 trustin2. "n
p#rti!ul#rF *e trusts t*e str#n2e version o' *istor3 put to *i4 $3 one "2or Wit0ows0iF # :ole w*o volunteere< to #ssist *i4 in *is rese#r!*. " spo0e to 6oo0F w*o <es!ri$es Wit0ows0i #s # J'or4er <e'en!e
Mourn#listLF $ut w#s un#w#re o' t*e evi<en!e t*#t Wit0ows0i see4s to $e # u'olo2ist w*o is intereste< in !rop !ir!les #n< t*e si4il#rities $etween t*e te!*nolo2ies o' t*e 7#Eis #n< t*e Aliens. )e <i< not
0now w*#t Wit0ows0i9s sel'1pu$lis*e< tr#!ts #re #$outF *#vin2 4#<e no #tte4pt to tr#nsl#te t*e4 'ro4 t*e :olis*. "n '#!tF Wit0ows0i *#s put out six sep#r#te ite4s title< so4et*in2 li0e )itler9s 5uperse!ret
We#ponsF #<vertise< #lon2 wit* ot*er pu$li!#tions in t*e !r#s*e< s#u!er/p#r#nor4#l 'iel<. "t is #t le#st possi$le t*#tF in volunteerin2 *is #ssist#n!e to 6oo0F Wit0ows0i *#< #n #2en<# o' *is own to pu$li!ise.
Wit0ows0iF tooF *#s # vit#lF unn#4#$le sour!e. 5uppose<l3F # J:olis* 2overn4ent o''i!i#lL p*one< *i4F invitin2 *i4 to view <o!u4ents #n< t#0e notes #$out t*e <evelop4ent #n< !on!e#l4ent o'
extr#or<in#r3 7#Ei te!*nolo23F #s 2iven in # re!or< o' Jt*e #!tivities o' # spe!i#l unit o' t*e 5oviet se!ret intelli2en!e servi!e.L 6onvin!e< o' t*e ver#!it3 o' $ot* Wit0ows0i #n< t*e sour!eF 6oo0 w#s <riven
#roun< E#stern Europe to see evi<en!e o' V,*e @ell9F # suppose< experi4ent#l <evi!e wit* two !3lin<ers spinnin2 in opposite <ire!tionsF w*i!* Wit0ows0i s#i< 2lowe< $lue #n< <estro3e< pl#ntsF $ir<sF
#ni4#lsF #n< so4eti4es *u4#ns. #n2erous t#s0s !onne!te< wit* its oper#tion wereF #pp#rentl3F per'or4e< $3 J!on!entr#tion !#4p prisoners 'ro4 =ross1;osen.L 6oo0 see4s to *#ve $een insi<e two
!onstru!tions w*i!* *#< !ont#ine< versions o' ,*e @ellF $ut pu$lis*es no p*oto2r#p*s o' t*is 0e3 evi<en!e. A!!eptin2 t*e re#lit3 o' <#EElin2F 'uturisti! 7#Ei
te!*nolo23F 6oo0 lo!#tes # s!ientist to 4#t!*. ,*e n#4e *e !*oosesF supplie< in V,*e .e2en<9 #!!or<in2 to V.#wren!e
6ross9F is -i0tor 5!*#u$er2erF #n Austri#n 'orester w*o 'e#tures re2ul#rl3 in pro1 #n< neo17#Ei versions o' t*e V7#Ei UF>9
43t*osF $ut now*ere in 4#instre#4 s!ienti'i! *istor3 . "9ll $e returnin2 to t*e pe!uli#r !re#tion o' t*e 5!*#u$er2er1#s15#u!er1@uil<er 43t* in <et#il in # 'ort*!o4in2 issue
o' F,F $ut su''i!e it to s#3 t*#t 6oo09s version o' t*e t#le pro$#$l3 ori2in#tes in 1(%5F in # $oo0 $3 # pro4inent )olo!#ust revisionist. Alt*ou2* 6oo0 visits t*e 5!*#u$er2er #r!*ivesF *e <oes not !on'ir4 t*e
t#le tol< *i4 $3 V6ross9. An< w*ile 6oo0 !on!lu<es t*#t Jvi# 5!*#u$er2erF t*e 7#Eis *#< $een <eepl3 involve< no Auestion in w*#t !#n onl3 $e <es!ri$e< #s 'l3in2 s#u!er te!*nolo23LF we #re not
#llowe< to see #n3 p#2es o' 5!*#u$er2er9s <i#ries or letters to support t*is extr#or<in#r3 !l#i4. "n t*e en< it is t*e l#!0 o' evi<en!eF #n< o' tr#!e#$le sour!esF t*#t
ren<ers t*is $oo0 #l4ost v#lueless #s eit*er *istor3 or s!ien!e. WorseF it 4#3 unwittin2l3 $e <eliverin2 politi!#l
prop#2#n<#F 2lori'3in2 'i!tion#l 7#Ei #!*ieve4entsF o' w*i!* " #4 sure neit*er #ut*or nor pu$lis*er woul< #pprove.
Po.k-etno25s e+peri6ent on gra2it0 shie-.ing is 1unk 4 no one has repeate. it
@@6 in V/2
BJ@oein2 tries to <e'3 2r#vit3LF Iul3 2(F *ttp8//news.$$!.!o.u0/1/*i/s!i/te!*/215%(%5.st4C
r :o<0letnov !l#i4s to *#ve !ountere< t*e e''e!ts o' 2r#vit3 in #n experi4ent #t t*e ,#4pere Universit3 o' ,e!*nolo23 in Finl#n< in 1((2. ,*e s!ientist s#3s *e
'oun< t*#t o$Me!ts #$ove # super!on<u!tin2 !er#4i! <is! rot#tin2 over power'ul ele!tro4#2nets lost wei2*t. ,*e re<u!tion in 2r#vit3 w#s s4#llF #$out 2^F $ut t*e i4pli!#tions 1 'or ex#4pleF in ter4s o'
!uttin2 t*e ener23 nee<e< 'or # pl#ne to 'l3 1 were i44ense. 5!ientists w*o investi2#te< r :o<0letnovPs wor0F *oweverF s#i< t*e experi4ent w#s
'un<#4ent#ll3 'l#we< #n< t*#t ne2#tin2 2r#vit3 w#s i4possi$le.
Ph0sicists agree anti,gra2it0 is a .e-usion 4 e+peri6ents pro2ing it are su1>ect to 6easure6ent error
@usienss Wee0 in V(%
B>tis :ortF JA7,"=;A-",GK WE..F ",95 A.. U: "7 ,)E A";LF Fe$ru#r3 1%F ./7C
Flo#tin2 on #irK "tPs possi$le. Iust !*ill # !er#4i! super!on<u!tor $elow (/+ B13//FC #n< pl#!e it on # 4#2net. ,*e super!on<u!tor will levit#te. "tPs !#lle< t*e ?eissner e''e!tF #n< it 4i2*t one <#3 le#< to
#n PP#nti2r#vit3PP 4#!*ine. Io*n ). 5!*nurerF <ire!tor o' p*3si!s en2ineerin2 #t Antio!* 6olle2e in Gellow 5prin2sF >*ioF
t*in0s *e 4i2*t *#ve t#0en # 'irst step in t*#t <ire!tion l#st '#ll. A'ter !*illin2 # 11in!*1<i#4eter super!on<u!tin2 <is0F *e
t*rew # swit!* t*#t sent #n ele!tri!#l !urrent sur2in2 t*rou2* # set o' !oils positione< #roun< t*e <is0. A$ove t*e <is0 w#s #
pl#sti! s#4ple *#n2in2 'ro4 one en< o' # *o4e4#<e $#l#n!e s!#le !ont#inin2 no 4et#l p#rts. ,*e pl#sti! s#4ple rose ever
so sli2*tl3 11 !orrespon<in2 to #n #pp#rent 5^ loss in t*e wei2*t o' t*e s#4ple. PP=re#t 'unFPP s#i< 5!*nurer 11 *is restr#ine<
w#3 o' s*outin2 PPEure0#RPP WEA+ F>;6E. ?#n3 p*3si!ists #re sure #nti2r#vit3 is # <elusion. Even i' it <oes existF it !#nPt
$e 4ore t*#n one14illiont* #s stron2 #s 2r#vit3F s#3s Eri! =. A<el$er2erF # pro'essor o' p*3si!s #t t*e Universit3 o'
W#s*in2ton w*o stu<ies 2r#vit3. An< $e!#use 2r#vit3 itsel' is su!* # we#0 'or!eF tin3 4#2neti! 'iel<s #n< te4per#ture
!*#n2es !#n !#use spurious results. A<el$er2er s#3s itPs !ru!i#l to !ontrol te4per#tures to one1t*ous#n<t* o' # <e2ree 11 w#3
$e3on< t*e s!ope o' 5!*nurerPs setup.
&1
2009
A2H P"OO! 3ISI!EC"AIO! WEAPO!S
1) !o i6pact 4 0our authors are insane/ the on-0 wa0 to .estro0 a proton is to .estro0 the ato6 it is containe. in/
which 6akes 0our scenario non,uniIue 4 nuc-ear weapons pro2e wh0 this wou-.n5t trigger 0our i6pacts
2) he weapons *ai- 4 the neutrino positron pairing necessar0 *or esca-ation is too rare
A6erican Ph0sica- Societ0 99 BA:5F ,*e isinte2r#tion o' )i2* Ener23 :rotonsF
*ttp8//prol#.#ps.or2/#$str#!t/:;/v51/i12/p1/3%Q1C
,*e !ouplin2 $etween li2*t #n< *e#v3 p#rti!les #ssu4e< in t*e Fer4i t*eor3 o' e1<e!#3 4#0es it possi$le 'or *i2* ener23
protons in p#ssin2 t*rou2* 4#tter to tr#ns'er # !onsi<er#$le 'r#!tion o' t*eir ener23 to ele!trons #n< neutrinos. "' we
suppose t*#t t*is !ouplin2 is # 4#xi4u4 'or rel#tive ener2ies o' t*e li2*t #n< *e#v3 p#rti!les o' t*e or<er c/RF wit* R t*e
r#n2e o' nu!le#r 'or!esF #n< is s4#ll 'or 4u!* *i2*er rel#tive ener2iesF t*e 4ost i4port#nt pro!ess w*i!* o!!ursF 'or
su''i!ientl3 ener2eti! protonsF !#n $e pi!ture< #s # sort o' p*oto<isinte2r#tion o' t*e proton $3 t*e !ontr#!te< 6oulo4$ 'iel<
o' # p#ssin2 nu!leusF t*e proton !*#n2in2 into # neutron #n< e4ittin2 # positron #n< # neutrino. Wit* # !ouplin2 o' t*e t3pe
<es!ri$e<F #n< o' t*e 4#2nitu<e reAuire< $3 t*e proton1neutron 'or!esF pro!esses involvin2 4ore t*#n one p#ir o' li2*t
p#rti!les will $e rel#tivel3 r#re. ,*e !ross se!tion 'or t*e <isinte2r#tion o' # proton o' ener23 E is 'oun< to $e o' t*e or<er
2fB/McCRZ
2
g
2
ln
2
BE/Mc
2
CF #n< is ver3 s4#llF even 'or *e#v3 nu!lei. ,*e 4e#n ener23 2iven to t*e positron per
<isinte2r#tion is o' t*e or<er 2Bc/RCBE/Mc
2
C/ln BE/Mc
2
C. ,*e positrons e4itte< in t*ese <isinte2r#tions !#n #!!ount in or<er
o' 4#2nitu<e 'or t*e in!i<en!e o' s*owers o$serve< un<er t*i!0 #$sor$ers.
&) here5s no 1asis in ph0sics 4 i* there was a reaction that cou-. 1reak .own a-- protons without intro.ucing
energ0/ it wou-. .iso1e0 the secon. -aw o* ther6o.0na6ics Minsert scienceON an. .estro0 the entire uni2erse/ which
is .ispro2e. 10 e2er0 one o* tri--ions o* stars
8) We can5t .isintegrate protons arti*icia--0 4 the -i*eti6e is too -ong
3urse-0 99 B:*3si!s 4#MorF J,ow#r<s =r#n< Uni'i!#tionLF *ttp8//4ol#ire1.!lu$.'r/eQuni'i!#tion.*t4l C
@e!#use t*is t*eor3 2roups to2et*er ; partic-es Bt*e ele!tronF t*e neutrino #n< t*e < #ntiAu#r0s o' e#!* !olourC in #
'un<#4ent#l Auintuplet. ,*e ot*er p#rti!les woul< $e 2roupe< in # <e!uplet. ,*e s344etr3 o' t*e =U, woul< per4it t*e
inv#ri#n!e o' n#ture $3 t*e per4ut#tion o' # lepton Bele!tronF neutrino...C wit* # Au#r08 ,o put it pl#inl3F leptons #n< Au#r0s
o' t*e Auintuplet woul< $e tr#ns'or4#$leF one to #not*erF #n< t*ese tr#nsitions !oul< $e possi$le $3 t*e inter4e<i#r3 o' new
$osons !#lle< -eptoIuarks. ,*ese leptoAu#r0s woul< t*en $e $osons !#rr3in2 # !olour !*#r2e #n< # 'r#!tion#l ele!tri!
!*#r2e. ,*is t*eor3 woul< per4it expl#n#tion o' t*e trou$lin2 '#!t t*#t t*e v#lue o' t*e ne2#tive ele!tri! !*#r2e BDU 11C o'
#n ele!tron !orrespon<s to t*e s#4e positive v#lue BDU `1C o' t*e proton. ,*is t*eor3 pre<i!ts #n #pp#llin2 event8 t*e
protonF s34$ol o' st#$ilit3 o' 4#tterF s*oul< *#ve # -i6ite. -i*eti6e R ,*is li'eti4e woul< $e 10&10rs N 0nowin2 t*#t t*e
Universe w#s $orn #roun< 1/1/ 3e#rs #2oF t*ere is still so4e sp#re ti4eF p*ewR Enor4ous swi44in21pool proton
<isinte2r#tion <ete!tors *#ve t*ere'ore $een !onstru!te<8 A proton e4its two p*otons 2 #n< # positron e` w*en it
<isinte2r#tesN now t*e positron e4its # $lue lu4inous !one in w#ter B7erenko2 e**ect 'or t*e !onnoisseursC w*i!* p*oto1
4ultipliers !#n <ete!t. Al#sF 'or t*e 4o4entF no positive results *#ve $een #nnoun!e<F w*i!* ren<s t*is =U, t*eor3 4u!*
less soli< t*#n t*e ele!trowe#0 t*eor3.
;) he weapon has a-rea.0 1een use. with no i6pact/ an. *uture .e2e-op6ent is too e+pensi2e
=lo$#l 7ews Wire /1 B;ussi#n ,- Ex#4ines .#test 6uttin21E<2e We#ponr3F .exisC
"t too0 # 3e#r 'or # Moint U.5.1U.+. te#4 o' 5/ to set up one s*ot. 6re#tin2 t*e proton $e#4 reAuires t*e ele!tri!#l power
nee<e< to li2*t # s4#ll townF i' onl3 'or # 'ew 4o4ents. .A7.9s !ost #lone w#s #$out h6//F/// ex!lu<in2 t*e expense o'
t*e $e#4. At t*#t r#teF # 'ull 1//14inute 'e#ture woul< !ost h36 trillion.
&2
2009
A2H CAMMA WEAPO!S
Ca66a weapons are pure-0 specu-ati2e 4 initia- stu.ies ha2e not 1een rep-icate.
Cott*rie./ 50& B+ottF e4eritus pro'essor o' p*3si!s #t 6ornell Universit3F J=#44# ;#3 We#ponsK A :re4#ture
5pe!ul#tionFL Union o' 6on!erne< 5!ientistsF *ttp8//www.u!sus#.or2/2lo$#lQse!urit3/nu!le#rQwe#pons/2#44#1r#31
we#pons1#1pre4#ture1spe!ul#tion.*t4lF A!!esse< /%1251/&C
"nterest in #n Oiso4er $o4$O *#s $een sti4ul#te< $3 # !oll#$or#tion le< $3 6.@. 6ollins o' t*e Universit3 o' ,ex#s #t
#ll#sF w*o reporte< t*#t irr#<i#tin2 s#4ples o' )'* wit* W1r#3s pro<u!es # sever#l per!ent en*#n!e4ent o' 2#44# r#3
e4ission $3 t*e iso4er.3 ,*is experi4ent t*ere'ore su22este< t*#t t*e iso4er !oul< $e tri22ere< to rele#se its ener23 $3
irr#<i#tin2 it wit* # 4u!* lower1ener23 $e#4. 5u!* spe!ul#tions #re pre4#tureF *oweverF $e!#use #not*er !oll#$or#tionF4
usin2 t*e ver3 intense #n< sop*isti!#te< W1r#3 sour!e #t Ar2onne 7#tion#l .#$or#tor3F *#s #nnoun!e< t*#t it <oes not
repro<u!e t*e p*eno4enon reporte< $3 t*e ,ex#s 2roupN 'urt*er4oreF t*e experi4ent #t Ar2onne sets li4its on t*e e''e!t
4ore t*#n # t*ous#n< ti4es $elow t*e 4#2nitu<es reporte< in t*e ,ex#s p#pers.5 ,*is <oes not Auite settle t*e 4#tterF
*owever. ,*ere #re !ert#in <i''eren!es $etween t*e experi4ents t*#t 4i2*t *#ve prevente< t*e experi4ent #t Ar2onne 'ro4
<ete!tin2 t*e e''e!t reporte< $3 t*e ,ex#s 2roup. >n t*e ot*er *#n<F t*e results reporte< $3 t*e Ar2onne experi4ent #re
!onsistent wit* well1est#$lis*e< 0nowle<2e #$out nu!le#r stru!ture #n< pro!essesF w*e#rs t*ose 'ro4 t*e ,ex#s 2roup #re
in 'l#2r#nt <is#2ree4ent wit* su!* 0nowle<2e. Until t*is <is#2ree4ent is resolve<F t*ere is neit*er !#use 'or #l#r4 or
!ele$r#tionF nor 'or <ivertin2 su$st#nti#l su4s 'ro4 t*e U.5. ,re#sur3 to pro2r#4s $uilt #roun< w*#t 4#3 well not $e # re#l
e''e!t. Even i' t*e ,ex#s result were to $e !on'ir4e<F puttin2 it to use woul< reAuire over!o4in2 # series o' enor4ous
*ur<lesF t*e 'irst $ein2 t*e #strono4i!#l !ost o' '#$ri!#tin2 si2ni'i!#nt #4ounts o' t*e iso4er. "n '#!tF t*e "nstitute 'or
e'ense An#l3sis *#s t#0en O# *#r<F in1<ept* te!*ni!#l loo0 #t t*e [,ex#s] resultsFO re#!*es # ver3 s0epti!#l ver<i!t
re2#r<in2 t*eir v#li<it3F #n< p#ints # <eepl3 pessi4isti! pi!ture o' t*e prospe!ts 'or puttin2 t*e e''e!t to use were it to $e
re#l.6
he si6u-taneous .eca0 necessar0 to weaponi<e ga66a ra0 e6itters cannot 1e achie2e.
Cott*rie./ 50& B+ottF e4eritus pro'essor o' p*3si!s #t 6ornell Universit3F J=#44# ;#3 We#ponsK A :re4#ture
5pe!ul#tionFL Union o' 6on!erne< 5!ientistsF *ttp8//www.u!sus#.or2/2lo$#lQse!urit3/nu!le#rQwe#pons/2#44#1r#31
we#pons1#1pre4#ture1spe!ul#tion.*t4lF A!!esse< /%1251/&C
Fin#ll3F 2iven t*e <i''i!ult3 o' tri22erin2 t*e si4ult#neous <e!#3 o' 4ost nu!lei in # l#r2e s#4ple o' )'* B#ssu4in2 t*#t
sti4ul#te< <e!#3 existsCF so4e *#ve spe!ul#te< t*#t it 4#3 $e possi$le to #!*ieve rele#se o' t*e ener23 store< in t*e w*ole
s#4ple $3 4e#ns o' # !*#in re#!tion initi#te< $3 tri22erin2 # s4#ll 'r#!tion o' su!* # s#4ple. ,*is is # re#ll3 '#r1'et!*e<
notion. "n !ontr#st to # neutron !*#in re#!tion in 'issile 4#teri#lsF w*ere t*e neutrons #re not lost #s t*e3 tr#vel 'ro4 t*eir
pl#!e o' $irt* to w*ere t*e3 in<u!e # 'ission re#!tionF t*e 2#44# r#3 p*otons e4itte< $3 #n3 nu!leus *#ve # ver3 *i2*
pro$#$ilit3 o' Aui!0l3 <is#ppe#rin2 $3 0no!0in2 ele!trons out o' #to4s. "n #<<itionF # !*#in re#!tion woul< reAuire e#!*
iso4er <e!#3 !#s!#<e to pro4ptl3 e4itF on #ver#2eF 4ore t*#n one p*oton in t*e ener23 $#n< reAuire< $3 t*e tri22erin2
4e!*#nis4. "' #ll t*e !#s!#<es p#ss t*rou2* t*e 'our1se!on< iso4erF # !*#in re#!tion woul< $e i4possi$le.
A-ternate causa-it0 4 A-iens wi-- ha2e ga66a ra0 weapons
$raser/ Ma0 1/ 2009 B=or<onF s!ien!e writerF J?ission "4possi$leFL :*3si!s Worl<F
*ttp8//p*3si!sworl<.!o4/!ws/#rti!le/print/33(%/F A!!esse< /%1251/&C
Alt*ou2* +#0u 4#inl3 si<esteps t*e 2ri4 i4pli!#tions o' !onte4por#r3 #r4s #n< we#ponsF *is !*#pter on r#3 2uns points
out t*#t # we#pon t#4in2 t*e 4e!*#nis4 o' #strono4i!#l 2#44#1r#3 $ursters woul< 4#0e # terrestri#l t*er4onu!le#r $o4$
loo0 li0e # 'iEEle. An #lien !iviliE#tion !oul< use one to !o4pletel3 wipe us out. @ut i' *e is !on!erne< #$out t*e 'uture o'
*u4#n !iviliE#tionF +#0u s*oul< per*#ps *#ve loo0e< #t t*e possi$ilities o' 'uture s!ien!e 'or t*e environ4ent #n< !li4#te
!*#n2e. W*#t o' t*e possi$ilit3 o' usin2 p*3si!s to !ontrol t*e we#t*erK ,*#t is surel3 4ore i4port#nt t*#n #lien
!iviliE#tions wit* !3$or2s or p*#ser 2uns.
&&
2009
A2H A!I,MAE" WEAPO!S
Anti6atter is not *easi1-e 4 high cost/ ina1i-it0 to contain/ an. too s-ow
#vi<son =ea0/ 5!ien!e Writer #n< winner o' t*e A4eri!#n Asso!i#tion 'or t*e A<v#n!e4ent o' 5!ien!e Westin2*ouse
:riEe #n< t*e 7#tion#l Asso!i#tion o' 5!ien!e Writers9 5!ien!e in 5o!iet3 #w#r<F 2008 BJAir For!e pursuin2 #nti4#tter
we#ponsFL 1//4F *ttp8//www.s'2#te.!o4/!2i1$in/#rti!le.!2iK'ileU/!/#/2//4/1///4/?7=?3(3=:+1.,._t3peUprint#$leF
+un#lC
W*3 so '#r o''K >ne re#son is t*#t #t presentF t*erePs no '#st w#3 to 4#ss pro<u!e l#r2e #4ounts o' #nti4#tter 'ro4 p#rti!le
#!!eler#tors. Wit* present te!*niAuesF t*e pri!e t#2 'or 1//1$illiont*s o' # 2r#4 o' #nti4#tter woul< $e h6 $illionF #!!or<in2
to #n esti4#te $3 s!ientists #t 7A5APs ?#rs*#ll 5p#!e Fli2*t 6enter #n< elsew*ereF w*o *ope to l#un!* #nti4#tter1'uele<
sp#!es*ips. Anot*er pro$le4 is t*e terri$l3 unrul3 $e*#vior o' positrons w*enever p*3si!ists tr3 to !orr#l t*e4 into #
spe!i#l !ont#iner. "nsi<e t*ese !ont#inersF 0nown #s :ennin2 tr#psF 4#2neti! 'iel<s prevent t*e #ntip#rti!les 'ro4 !ont#!tin2
t*e 4#teri#l w#ll o' t*e !ont#iner 11 lest t*e3 #nni*il#te on !ont#!t. Un'ortun#tel3F $e!#use li0e1!*#r2e< p#rti!les repel e#!*
ot*erF t*e positrons pus* e#!* ot*er #p#rt #n< Aui!0l3 sAuirt out o' t*e tr#p. "' positrons !#nPt $e store< 'or lon2 perio<sF
t*e3Pre #s useless to t*e 4ilit#r3 #s #n #r4ore< personnel !#rrier wit*out # 2#s t#n0. 5o E<w#r<s is 'un<in2 investi2#tions o'
w#3s to 4#0e positrons l#st lon2er in stor#2e.
Anti6atter won5t 1e use. in weapons 1ut is ke0 to stop .isease an. cancer
Penns0-2ania State Uni2ersit0 0; 6ites 5tcp*#ne 6outuF :* #n< Asso!i#te :ro'essor o' :*3si!s
BJW*#t is #nti4#tter #n< w*3 <oes it 4#tterKFL (/1(F *ttp8//www.rps.psu.e<u/pro$in2/#nti4#tter.*t4lF +un#lC
,e!*nolo23 t*#t uses t*e properties o' #nti4#tter is #!tu#ll3 'e#si$le outsi<e o' s!ien!e 'i!tionF *owever. :ositron e4ission
to4o2r#p*3 B:E,C is # 4e<i!#l te!*niAue t*#t !#n $e use< to <ete!t !#n!erF 4e#sure $loo< 'low #n< <ete!t !oron#r3 #rter3
<ise#se. "n :E, s!#nsF O# s4#ll #4ount o' r#<io#!tive su$st#n!e is inMe!te< into # personF w*i!* pro<u!es positrons upon
<e!#3in2 wit*in t*e $o<3FO 6outu expl#ins. O@3 <ete!tin2 t*e *i2*1ener23 p*otons B2#44# r#3sC pro<u!e< in t*e
#nni*il#tion o' positrons wit* ele!trons in t*e $o<3F # 4#p !#n $e 4#<e o' w*ere t*e su$st#n!e *#s spre#< wit*in t*e $o<3.O
W*ile #nti4#tter 4#3 never $e use< #s # $o4$F it !ert#inl3 *#s # positive 'uture in li'e1s#vin2 4e<i!#l <i#2nosti! toolsF t*e
#nti1we#pon.
&8
2009
A2H A!I,MAE" WEAPO!S
It wou-. take 2 1i--ion 0ears to 6ake enough anti6atter *or a s6a-- weapon
7E"! 09 B6E;7 is t*e worl<9s l#r2est p#rti!le p*3si!s l#$or#tor3F Europe#n >r2#niE#tion 'or 7u!le#r ;ese#r!*F JAn2els
#n< e4onsFL I#nu#r3F *ttp8//pu$li!.we$.!ern.!*/pu$li!/en/5potli2*t/5potli2*tA#n<1en.*t4lF +un#lC
6#n we 4#0e #nti4#tter $o4$sK 7o. "t woul< t#0e $illions o' 3e#rs to pro<u!e enou2* #nti4#tter 'or # $o4$ *#vin2 t*e
s#4e <estru!tiveness #s Vt3pi!#l9 *3<ro2en $o4$sF o' w*i!* t*ere exist 4ore t*#n ten t*ous#n< #lre#<3. 5o!iolo2i!#l note8 s!ientists re#liEe< t*#t t*e #to4 $o4$ w#s # re#l
possi$ilit3 4#n3 3e#rs $e'ore one w#s #!tu#ll3 $uilt #n< explo<e<F #n< t*en t*e pu$li! w#s tot#ll3 surprise< #n< #4#Ee<. >n t*e ot*er *#n<F t*e pu$li! so4e*ow #nti!ip#tes t*e #nti4#tter $o4$F $ut we
*#ve 0nown 'or # lon2 ti4e t*#t it !#nnot $e re#liEe< in pr#!ti!e. W*3 *#s #nti4#tter re!eive< no 4e<i# #ttentionK "t *#s re!eive< # lot o' 4e<i# #ttentionF $ut
usu#ll3 in t*e s!ienti'i! press. AlsoF #nti4#tter is not Vnew9. Antip#rti!les *#ve $een 0nown #n< stu<ie< 'or %5 3e#rs. W*#t is new is t*e possi$ilit3 to pro<u!e #nti1*3<ro2en #to4sF $ut t*is is #lso 4#inl3 #
4#tter o' s!ienti'i! interest. "s #nti4#tter trul3 1//^ e''i!ientK "t <epen<s on w*#t 3ou 4e#n $3 e''i!ient. "' 3ou st#rt 'ro4 two eAu#l Au#ntities 4/2 o' 4#tter #n< 4/2 o' #nti4#tterF t*en t*e ener23 output isF
o' !ourseF ex#!tl3 EU4!2. ?#ss is !onverte< into ener23 wit* 1//^ e''i!ien!3. @ut t*#t is not t*e point8 *ow 4u!* e''ort <o 3ou *#ve to put in to 2et 4/2 2r#4s o' #nti4#tterK WellF t*eoreti!#ll3 EU4!2
$e!#use *#l' o' t*e ener23 will $e!o4e nor4#l 4#tter. 5o 3ou 2#in not*in2. @ut t*e pro!ess o' !re#tin2 #nti4#tter is *i2*l3 ine''i!ientN w*en 3ou <issip#te ener23 into p#rti!les wit* 4#ssF 4#n3 <i''erent 1
#lso s*ort1live< 1 p#rti!les #n< #ntip#rti!les #re pro<u!e<. A 4#Mor p#rt o' t*e ener23 2ets lostF #n< # lot o' t*e st#$le #nti4#tter1p#rti!les Be.2. positrons #n< #ntiprotonsC 2o #str#3 $e'ore 3ou !#n !#t!* t*e4.
Ever3t*in2 *#ppens #t ne#rl3 t*e spee< o' li2*tF #n< t*e p#rti!les !re#te< Eoo4 o'' in #ll <ire!tions. 5o4ew*#t li0e !oo0in2 'oo< over # !#4p'ire8 4ost o' t*e *e#t is lost #n< <oes not 2o into t*e !oo0in2 o'
t*e 'oo<F it <is#ppe#rs #s r#<i#tion into t*e <#r0 ni2*t s03. -er3 ine''i!ient. o 3ou 4#0e #nti4#tter #s <es!ri$e< in t*e $oo0K 7o. ,*e pro<u!tion #n< stor#2e o' #nti4#tter #t 6E;7 is not #t #ll #s <es!ri$e<
in t*e $oo08 3ou !#nnot st#n< next to t*e .#r2e )#<ron 6olli<er B.)6C #n< see it !o4e outF espe!i#ll3 sin!e t*e .)6 #!!eler#tor is not 3et in oper#tion. ,o 4#0e #ntiprotonsF we !olli<e protons #t ne#rl3
t*e spee< o' li2*t Bto $e pre!iseF wit* # 0ineti! ener23 o' #$out 25 =e-C wit* # $lo!0 o' 4et#lF e.2. !opper or tun2sten. ,*ese !ollisions pro<u!e # l#r2e nu4$er o' p#rti!lesF so4e o' w*i!* #re
#ntiprotons. >nl3 t*e #ntiprotons #re use'ulF #n< onl3 t*ose t*#t 'l3 out in t*e ri2*t <ire!tion. 5o t*#tPs w*ere 3our ener23 loss 2oes8 it is li0e tr3in2 to w#ter # pot o' 'lowers $ut wit* # sprin0ler t*#t spr#3s
over t*e w*ole 2#r<en. >' !ourseF we !onst#ntl3 #ppl3 new tri!0s to $e!o4e 4ore e''i!ient #t !olle!tin2 #ntip#rti!lesF $ut #t t*e level o' ele4ent#r3 p#rti!les t*is is extre4el3 <i''i!ult. W*3 t*en <o 3ou $uil<
t*e .)6K ,*e re#son 'or $uil<in2 t*e .)6 #!!eler#tor is not to 4#0e #nti4#tter $ut to pro<u!e #n ener23 !on!entr#tion *i2* enou2* to stu<3 e''e!ts t*#t will *elp us to un<erst#n< so4e o' t*e re4#inin2
Auestions in p*3si!s. We s#3 !on!entr#tionsF $e!#use we #re not t#l0in2 #$out *u2e #4ounts $ut #n enor4ous !on!entr#tion o' ener23. E#!* p#rti!le #!!eler#te< in t*e .)6 !#rries #n #4ount o' ener23
eAuiv#lent to t*#t o' # 'l3in2 4osAuito. 7ot 4u!* #t #ll in #$solute ter4sF $ut it will $e !on!entr#te< in # ver3 4inute volu4eF #n< t*ere t*in2s will rese4$le t*e st#te o' t*e universe ver3 s*ortl3 B#$out #
trilliont* o' # se!on<C #'ter t*e @i2 @#n2. Gou s*oul< !o4p#re t*e !on!entr#tion e''e!t to w*#t 3ou !#n le#rn #$out t*e Au#lit3 o' # woo<en 'loor $3 w#l0in2 over it. "' # l#r2e 4#n we#rin2 nor4#l s*oes #n<
# petite wo4#n we#rin2 s*#rp stiletto *eels w#l0 over t*e s#4e 'loorF t*e 4#n will not 4#0e <entsF $ut t*e wo4#nF <espite *er lower wei2*tF 4#3 le#ve 4#r0sN t*e pressure !re#te< $3 t*e stiletto *eels is '#r
*i2*er. 5o t*#t is li0e t*e Mo$ o' t*e .)68 !on!entr#te # little ener23 into # ver3 4inute sp#!e to pro<u!e # *u2e ener23 !on!entr#tion #n< le#rn so4et*in2 #$out t*e @i2 @#n2. oes 6E;7 *#ve # p#rti!le
#!!eler#tor 2% 0ilo4etres lon2K ,*e .)6 #!!eler#tor is # rin2 2% 0ilo4etres in !ir!u4'eren!e. "t is inst#lle< in # tunnel #$out 1// 4 un<er2roun<. Gou !#n see t*e roun< outline o' it 4#r0e< on # 4#p o' t*e
#re#. "n '#!tF w*3 <o 3ou 4#0e #nti4#tter #t 6E;7K ,*e prin!ip#l re#son is to stu<3 t*e l#ws o' n#ture. ,*e !urrent t*eories o' p*3si!s pre<i!t # nu4$er o' su$tle e''e!ts !on!ernin2 #nti4#tter. "'
experi4ents <o not o$serve t*ese pre<i!tionsF t*en t*e t*eor3 is not #!!ur#te #n< nee<s to $e #4en<e< or rewor0e<. ,*is is *ow s!ien!e pro2resses. Anot*er re#son is to 2et extre4el3 *i2* ener23 <ensities
in !ollisions o' 4#tter #n< #nti4#tter p#rti!lesF sin!e t*e3 #nni*il#te !o4pletel3 w*en t*e3 4eet. Fro4 t*is #nni*il#tion ener23 ot*er interestin2 p#rti!les 4#3 $e !re#te<. ,*is w#s 4#inl3 *ow t*e .#r2e
Ele!tron :ositron B.E:C !olli<er 'un!tione< #t 6E;7 until 2///F or t*e ,ev#tron !urrentl3 oper#tes #t Fer4il#$ ne#r 6*i!#2o. )ow is ener23 extr#!te< 'ro4 #nti4#tterK W*en # nor4#l 4#tter p#rti!le *its
#n #nti4#tter p#rti!leF t*e3 4utu#ll3 #nni*il#te into # ver3 !on!entr#te< $urst o' pure ener23F 'ro4 w*i!* in turn new p#rti!les B#n< #ntip#rti!lesC #re !re#te<. ,*e nu4$er #n< 4#ss o' t*e #nni*il#tion
pro<u!ts <epen<s on t*e #v#il#$le ener23. ,*e #nni*il#tion o' ele!trons #n< positrons #t low ener2ies pro<u!es onl3 two Bor t*reeC *i2*l3 ener2eti! p*otons. @ut wit* #nni*il#tion #t ver3 *i2* ener23F
*un<re<s o' new p#rti!le1#ntip#rti!le p#irs !#n $e 4#<e. ,*e <e!#3 o' t*ese p#rti!les pro<u!esF #4on2 ot*ersF 4#n3 neutrinosF w*i!* <o not inter#!t wit* t*e environ4ent #t #ll. ,*is is not ver3 use'ul 'or
ener23 extr#!tion. )ow s#'e is #nti4#tterK :er'e!tl3 s#'eF 2iven t*e 4inute Au#ntities we !#n 4#0e. "t woul< $e ver3 <#n2erous i' we !oul< 4#0e # 'ew 2r#4s o' itF $ut t*is woul< t#0e us $illions o' 3e#rs. "'
soF <oes 6E;7 *#ve proto!ols to 0eep t*e pu$li! s#'eK ,*ere is no <#n2er 'ro4 #nti4#tter. ,*ere #re o' !ourse ot*er <#n2ers on t*e 6E;7 siteF #s in #n3 l#$or#tor38 *i2* volt#2e in !ert#in #re#sF <eep pits to
'#ll inF et!. $ut 'or t*ese <#n2ers t*e usu#l in<ustri#l s#'et3 4e#sures #re in pl#!e. ,*ere is no <#n2er o' r#<io#!tive le#0s #s 3ou 4i2*t 'in< ne#r nu!le#r power st#tions. oes one 2r#4 o' #nti4#tter !ont#in
t*e ener23 o' # 2/ 0ilotonne nu!le#r $o4$K ,went3 0ilotonnes o' ,7, is t*e eAuiv#lent o' t*e #to4 $o4$ t*#t <estro3e< )iros*i4#. ,*e explosion o' # 0ilotonne BU1/// tonnesC o' ,7, !orrespon<s to #
ener23 rele#se o' 4.2x1/12 Moules B1/12 is # 1 'ollowe< $3 12 EerosF i.e. # 4illion 4illionC. For !o4p#risonF # 6/ w#tt li2*t $ul$ !onsu4es 6/ I per se!on<. Gou #re pro$#$l3 #s0in2 'or t*e explosive
rele#se o' ener23 $3 t*e su<<en #nni*il#tion o' one 2r#4 o' #nti4#tter wit* one 2r#4 o' 4#tter. .etPs !#l!ul#te it. ,o !#l!ul#te t*e ener23 rele#se< in t*e #nni*il#tion o' 1 2 o' #nti4#tter wit* 1 2 o' 4#tter
Bw*i!* 4#0es 2 2 U /.//2 02CF we *#ve to use t*e 'or4ul# EU4!2F w*ere ! is t*e spee< o' li2*t B3//F///F/// 4/sC8 EU /.//2 x B3//F///F///C2 02 42/s2 U 1.& x 1/14 I U 1&/ x 1/12 I. 5in!e 4.2x1/12 I
!orrespon<s to # 0ilotonne o' ,7,F t*en 2 2 o' 4#tter1#nti4#tter #nni*il#tion !orrespon< to 1&//4.2 U 42.& 0ilotonnesF #$out <ou$le t*e 2/ 0t o' ,7,. ,*is 4e#ns t*#t 3ou Vonl39 nee< *#l' #
2r#4 o' #nti4#tter to $e eAu#ll3 <estru!tive #s t*e )iros*i4# $o4$F sin!e t*e ot*er *#l' 2r#4 o' Bnor4#lC 4#tter is e#s3
enou2* to 'in<. At 6E;7 we 4#0e Au#ntities o' t*e or<er o' 1/% #ntiprotons per se!on< #n< t*ere #re 6x1/23 o' t*e4 in #
sin2le 2r#4 o' #nti*3<ro2en. Gou !#n e#sil3 !#l!ul#te *ow lon2 it woul< t#0e to 2et one 2r#48 we woul< nee<
6x1/23/1/%U6x1/16 se!on<s. ,*ere #re onl3 365 B<#3sC x 24 B*C x 6/ B4inC x 6/ Bse!C U #roun< 3x1/% se!on<s in # 3e#rF
so it woul< t#0e rou2*l3 6x1/16 / 3x1/% U 2x1/( U two $illion 3e#rsR "t is Auite unli0el3 t*#t #n3one w#nts to w#it t*#t lon2.
Enough anti6atter to 6ake a 1o61 wou-. cost P90 Iua.ri--ion an. take one 6i--ion 0ears
7!! 02 BJAnti4#tter !oul< 'uel ro!0etsF *e#l p#tientsFL 1/1/F
*ttp8//#r!*ives.!nn.!o4/2//2/,E6)/sp#!e//1/1//#nti4#tter.rese#r!*/F +un#lC
,*e pro<u!tion pro!ess is <i''i!ult #n< expensive. ,*e worl<Ps l#r2est 4#0er o' #nti4#tterF t*e Fer4i 7#tion#l A!!eler#tor
.#$or#tor3 in @#t#vi#F "llinoisF 4#0es onl3 one $illiont* o' # 2r#4 # 3e#r #t # !ost o' h&/ 4illion. At t*#t r#teF it woul< t#0e
one 4illion 3e#rs #n< h&/ Au#<rillion B&/F/// trillionC to pro<u!e one 2r#4. Un'ortun#tel3F # sp#!e!r#'t woul< nee< sever#l
poun<sF not 2r#4sF to tr#vel to t*e ne#rest st#r. >ne poun< is eAu#l to 454 2r#4s.
&;
2009
A2H PA"I7%E A77E%E"AO"S
Partic-e co--i.ers on-0 create tin0 1-ack ho-es that pose no .anger to hu6anit0 4 e+perts agree
A-an./ 2009 BEri!F is!over3 7ewsF 5epte4$er 1/F J:#rti!le 54#s*erPs @l#!0 )oles Woul< @e ,in3L
*ttp8//<s!.<is!over3.!o4/news/2//&//(/1//$l#!01*ole1!ern1print.*t4lC
6E;7 s!ientists s#3 t*#t # $l#!0 *ole is Ovirtu#ll3 i4possi$le.O ?#rtin ;eesF # U.+. p*3si!istF *#s put t*e o<<s o' # 6E;7
$l#!0 *ole #t one in 5/ 4illion. 63ni!s *#ve pointe< out t*#t t*ose o<<s #re #$out t*e s#4e #s so4e st#te1sponsore<
lotteries. @ut w*en t*e '#te o' t*e worl< is #t st#0e #n3 ris0 is too 2re#t # ris0F !onten< two 2roupsF one in t*e Unite< 5t#tes
#n< one in EuropeF w*o #re suin2 to stop t*e .)6 'ro4 oper#tin2. >t*er people *#ve t*re#tene< to t#0e 4#tters into t*eir
own *#n<sF issuin2 <e#t* t*re#ts to 6E;7 s!ientists #n< t*eoreti!#l p*3si!ists. Fr#n0 Wil!Ee0F t*e 2//4 7o$el :riEe winner
#n< # pro'essor o' t*eoreti!#l p*3si!s #t t*e ?#ss#!*usetts "nstitute o' ,e!*nolo23F is one o' t*e s!ientists w*o *#s re!eive<
<e#t* t*re#ts. )e points out t*ere #re 4#ssive $l#!0 *oles #n< t*en t*ere #re s4#llerF 4u!* less <estru!tive $l#!0 *oles .
A!!or<in2 to WilE!e0F 'e#rs o' #n E#rt*12o$$lin2 $l#!0 *ole #re 2roun<e< in t*e popul#r i<e# t*#t #ll $l#!0 *oles #re
2#l#!ti! 4onsters Must w#itin2 'or t*e !*#n!e to 2o$$le up #n3 ne#r$3 st#r or pl#net t*#t 2ets too !lose. W*ile super4#ssive
$l#!0 *olesF li0e t*e one #t t*e !enter o' our 2#l#x3F <o 2o$$le up st#rs #n< pl#netsF 4i!ros!opi! $l#!0 *olesF li0e t*e ones
t*e .)6 !oul< !re#teF woul< loo0 #n< #!t !o4pletel3 <i''erentl3. O"tPs li0e we onl3 *#< one wor< 'or ever3 #ni4#l out
t*ereFO s#i< Wil!Ee0. O"tPs li0e t*e3 *#< elep*#nts in 4in< w*en t*e3 !#4e up wit* t*e wor< P#ni4#l.P @ut little #4oe$#s #re
#ni4#ls too.O O,*e wor< is t*e s#4e $ut t*e o$Me!t is ver3 <i''erent 'ro4 t*e st#n<#r< i4#2e t*#t people t*in0 o'.O "' B#n<
t*#t re4#ins # $i2 Oi'OC t*e .)6 !re#tes # $l#!0 *ole it will $e extre4el3 tin3F 4u!* s4#ller t*#n # sin2le #to4F s#i<
WilE!e0. "ts 4#ss will $e t*e s#4e #s t*e two protons t*#t !re#te< it. "ts r#n2e will $e s4#ll 11 onl3 # 'ew ti4es t*e <i#4eter
o' t*e two protons. A!!or<in2 to Wil!Ee0F t*#tPs too s4#ll 'or t*e $#$3 $l#!0 *ole to e#t enou2* p#rti!les to 2row to #n3
re#l siEe. Wit* no 'oo<F t*e $l#!0 *ole will si4pl3 win0 out o' existen!e in # 'r#!tion o' # se!on<. ,o !re#te # st#$le $l#!0
*oleF one !#p#$le o' !onsu4in2 t*e E#rt*F t*e $l#!0 *ole woul< *#ve to $e sever#l *un<re< tons. A .)612ener#te< $l#!0
*ole woul< wei2* # tin3 'r#!tion o' # 2r#4. 5o w*#t i4p#!t woul< # s4#llF .)612ener#te< $l#!0 *ole *#veK Wil!Ee0 s#3s
t*e onl3 li0el3 e''e!t is t*#t #ll o' t*e Au#r0s #n< ot*er p#rti!les pro<u!e< in t*e !ollisions will Eoo4 #w#3 # 'r#!tion o' #
se!on< slower t*#n t*e3 nor4#ll3 woul< *#ve. ,*e onl3 ones w*o woul< even noti!e t*#t # $l#!0 *ole w#s t*ere woul< $e
t*e 6E;7 s!ientists loo0in2 #t t*eir s!reens #n< w#t!*in2 t*e <#t#. ,*#t 4e#ns even i' # $l#!0 *ole were !re#te< in =enev#
it woul< *#ve no e''e!t on *u4#nit3 #t l#r2e. @utF 'or !uriosit3Ps s#0eF Must w*#t woul< *#ppen to so4eone i' t*e3 were
<roppe< into # super4#ssive $l#!0 *oleF li0e t*e one #t t*e !enter o' t*e 2#l#x3K OAt 'irst t*e3 4i2*t not even noti!eFO s#i<
Wil!Ee0. OWe !oul< $e in # $l#!0 *ole ri2*t now #n< we woul<nPt even 0now itFO sin!e in'or4#tion !#nPt es!#pe # $l#!0
*ole. Eventu#ll3F *oweverF t*e person woul< st#rt to 'eel t*e 'or!es. ,*e *u2e <i''eren!es in 2r#vit3 in t*e $l#!0 *ole woul<
slowl3 stret!* # person out w*ile si4ult#neousl3 !o4pressin2 *is or *er si<es. Eventu#ll3F # person woul< stret!* out li0e #
str#n< o' sp#2*etti. ,*#tPs # 'e#rso4e i4#2eF $ut it wonPt *#ppen #t 6E;7. 6E;7Ps intern#l reports *#ve <is!re<ite< t*e
possi$ilit3F #n< outsi<e experts #2ree8 6E;7 is s#'e. An< w*ile Wil!Ee0 sees no lo2i! or !re<en!e in t*e #l#r4in2 ru4ors
surroun<in2 6E;7F *e <oes see #n upsi<e to #ll o' t*e #ttention t*e experi4ent is 2#t*erin2. O:eople !#n st#rt to t*in0 #$out
$l#!0 *olesF #n< *ope'ull3 t*#t will su!0 t*e4 into t*in0in2 #$out t*e re#ll3 ex!itin2 s!ien!e t*#t will *#ppen #t 6E;7FP
s#i< Wil!Ee0.
7o--isions in space occur that are 6ore power*u- than an0 co--ision that cou-. 1e con.ucte. in a 6an 6a.e partic-e
acce-erator 4 we are sti-- here/ 6eaning there is no chance we cou-. acci.enta--0 .estro0 the uni2erse)
"ees/ 199; BIo*nF #strop*3si!ist #n< !os4olo2istN ;o3#l 5o!iet3 ;ese#r!* :ro'essor #t +in2Ps 6olle2eF 6#4$ri<2eF OAn
Ense4$le o' UniversesO *ttp8//www.e<2e.or2/<o!u4ents/,*ir<6ulture/x16*.15.*t4l
Wit* t*e ut!* #strop*3si!ist :iet )utF " wrote # p#per #<<ressin2 t*e Auestion o' w*et*er #!!eler#tors !oul< !re#te
!on!entr#tions o' ener2ies t*#t *#< never existe< #n3w*ere in t*e universe sin!e t*e $i2 $#n2 itsel'. >ur !on!lusion w#s
Auite re#ssurin2. We !#l!ul#te< t*e !ollision r#te $etween !os4i!1r#3 p#rti!les T w*i!* #re p#rti!les t*#t 4oveF #t ver3 low
<ensitiesF in interstell#r sp#!eF #t ver3 !lose to t*e spee< o' li2*t. We wor0e< out t*e 4ost ener2eti! !ollisions t*#t ever
*#ppene< in our p#rt o' universeF #n< we <is!overe< t*#t t*ese woul< *#ve $een su$st#nti#ll3 4ore ener2eti! t*#n #n3
!on!eiv#$le event t*#t !oul< o!!ur in #n #!!eler#tor. ,*#tPs re#ssurin2. "t 4e#ns 3ouP< *#ve to 2o # lon2 w#3 $e3on< t*e
!ollision ener2ies expe!te< in super!olli<ers $e'ore t*ere w#s #n3 ris0 o' oo4s<#3.
&:
2009
he Ba.ron 7o--i.er wi-- on-0 create s6a-- 1-ack ho-es that .o not ha2e the capa1i-it0 to .estro0 earth
7hoi/ 200: B6*#rles D. 5pe!i#l to .ive 5!ien!eF Jespite ;u4orsF @l#!0 )ole F#!tor3 Will 7ot estro3 E#rt*LC
5!ientists !oul< 2ener#te # $l#!0 *ole #s o'ten #s ever3 se!on< w*en t*e worl<Ps 4ost power'ul p#rti!le #!!eler#tor !o4es
online in 2//%. ,*is potenti#l O$l#!0 *ole '#!tor3O *#s r#ise< 'e#rs t*#t # str#3 $l#!0 *ole !oul< <evour our pl#net w*ole. ,*e
.i'e$o#t Foun<#tionF # nonpro'it or2#niE#tion <evote< to s#'e2u#r<in2 *u4#nit3 'ro4 w*#t it !onsi<ers t*re#ts to our existen!eF *#s st#te< t*#t #rti'i!i#l $l#!0 *oles !oul< Ot*re#ten #ll li'e on E#rt*O #n< so it
proposes to set up Osel'1sust#inin2 !olonies elsew*ere.O @ut t*e !*#n!e o' pl#net#r3 #nni*il#tion $3 t*is 4e#ns Ois tot#ll3 4inis!uleFO experi4ent#l
p*3si!ist =re2 .#n<s$er2 #t @rown Universit3 in :rovi<en!eF ;.".F tol< LiveScience. A-ack ho-es possi1-e ,*e #!!eler#torF 0nown #s t*e .#r2e )#<ron
6olli<erF is un<er !onstru!tion in #n un<er2roun< !ir!ul#r tunnel ne#rl3 1% 4iles lon2 #t t*e worl<Ps l#r2est p*3si!s l#$or#tor3F 6E;7F ne#r =enev#. At its 4#xi4u4F e#!* p#rti!le $e#4 t*e !olli<er 'ires
will p#!0 #s 4u!* ener23 #s # 4//1ton tr#in tr#velin2 #t 12/ 4p*. @3 s4#s*in2 p#rti!les to2et*er #n< investi2#tin2 t*e <e$risF s!ientists *ope to *elp solve 43steries su!* #s t*e ori2in o' 4#ss #n< w*3 t*ere
is 4ore 4#tter t*#n #nti4#tter in t*e universe. "' t*eories #$out t*e universe !ont#inin2 extr# <i4ensions ot*er t*#n t*ose o' sp#!e #n< ti4e #re
!orre!tF t*e #!!eler#tor 4i2*t #lso 2ener#te $l#!0 *olesF .#n<s$er2 #n< *is !olle#2ue 5#v#s i4opoulos #t 5t#n'or< Universit3 in 6#li'orni# !#l!ul#te< in 2//1. :*3si!ists 5teve =i<<in2s #t t*e Universit3 o'
6#li'orni#F 5#nt# @#r$#r# #n< 5!ott ,*o4#s #t 5t#n'or< Universit3 in 6#li'orni# re#!*e< si4il#r !on!lusions. @l#!0 *oles possess 2r#vit#tion#l 'iel<s so stron2 t*#t not*in2 !#n es!#pe t*e4F not even li2*t.
,*e3 nor4#ll3 'or4 w*en t*e re4#ins o' # <e#< st#r !oll#pse un<er t*eir own 2r#vit3F sAueeEin2 t*eir 4#ss to2et*er. Alt*ou2* $l#!0 *oles !#nPt $e seenF #strono4ers in'er t*eir existen!e $3 t*e
2r#vit#tion#l e''e!ts t*e3 *#ve on 2#s #n< st#rs #roun< t*e4. Making 1-ack ho-es A nu4$er o' 4o<els o' t*e universe su22est extr# <i4ensions o' re#lit3 exist t*#t #re e#!* 'ol<e< up into siEes
r#n2in2 'ro4 #s tin3 #s # protonF or rou2*l3 # 4illiont* o' # $illiont* o' # 4eterF to #s $i2 #s # 'r#!tion o' # 4illi4eter. At <ist#n!es !o4p#r#$le to t*e siEe o' t*ese extr# <i4ensionsF 2r#vit3 $e!o4es '#r
stron2erF t*ese 4o<els su22est. "' t*is is trueF t*e !olli<er will !r#4 enou2* ener23 to2et*er to initi#te 2r#vit#tion#l !oll#pses t*#t pro<u!e $l#!0 *oles. "' #n3 o' t*e 4o<els #re ri2*tF t*e #!!eler#tor s*oul<
!re#te # $l#!0 *ole #n3w*ere 'ro4 ever3 se!on< to ever3 <#3F e#!* rou2*l3 possessin2 5F/// ti4es t*e 4#ss o' # proton #n< e#!* # t*ous#n<t* o' # proton in siEe or s4#llerF .#n<s$er2 s#i<. 5tillF #n3
'e#rs t*#t su!* $l#!0 *oles will !onsu4e t*e E#rt* #re 2roun<lessF .#n<s$er2 s#i<. For one t*in2F t*eoreti!#l p*3si!ist
5tep*en )#w0in2 !#l!ul#te< #ll $l#!0 *oles s*oul< e4it r#<i#tionF #n< t*#t tin3 $l#!0 *oles s*oul< lose 4ore 4#ss t*#n
t*e3 #$sor$F ev#por#tin2 wit*in # $illiont* o' # trilliont* o' # trilliont* o' # se!on<F O$e'ore t*e3 !oul< 2o$$le up #n3
si2ni'i!#nt #4ount o' 4#tterFO .#n<s$er2 s#i<. !ot .estro0e. 0et 6E;7 spo0es4#n #n< 'or4er rese#r!* p*3si!ist I#4es
=illies #lso pointe< out t*#t E#rt* is $#t*e< wit* !os4i! r#3s power'ul enou2* to !re#te $l#!0 *oles #ll t*e ti4e F #n< t*e
pl#net *#snPt $een <estro3e< 3et. O5tillF letPs #ssu4e t*#t even i' )#w0in2 is # 2eniusF *ePs wron2F #n< t*#t su!* $l#!0 *oles
#re 4ore st#$leFO .#n<s$er2 s#i<. 7e#rl3 #ll o' t*e $l#!0 *oles will $e tr#velin2 '#st enou2* 'ro4 t*e #!!eler#tor to es!#pe
E#rt*Ps 2r#vit3. OEven i' 3ou pro<u!e< 1/ 4illion $l#!0 *oles # 3e#rF onl3 1/ woul< $#si!#ll3 2et tr#ppe<F or$itin2 #roun<
its !enterFO .#n<s$er2 s#i<. )oweverF su!* tr#ppe< $l#!0 *oles #re so tin3F t*e3 !oul< p#ss t*rou2* # $lo!0 o' iron t*e
<ist#n!e 'ro4 t*e E#rt* to t*e ?oon #n< not *it #n3t*in2. ,*e3 woul< e#!* t#0e #$out 1// *ours to 2o$$le up one proton .
At t*#t r#teF even i' one <i< not t#0e into #!!ount t*e '#!t t*#t e#!* $l#!0 *ole woul< slow <own ever3 ti4e it 2o$$le< up #
protonF #n< t*us su!0 <own 4#tter #t #n even slower r#teF O#$out 1// protons woul< $e <estro3e< ever3 3e#r $3 su!* #
$l#!0 *oleF so it woul< t#0e 4u!* 4ore t*#n t*e #2e o' universe to <estro3 even one 4illi2r#4 o' E#rt* 4#teri#lFO
.#n<s$er2 !on!lu<e<. O"tPs Auite *#r< to <estro3 t*e E#rt*.O "' t*e .#r2e )#<ron 6olli<er <oes !re#te $l#!0 *olesF not onl3 will it prove t*#t extr# <i4ensions o' t*e
universe existF $ut t*e r#<i#tion t*#t <e!#3in2 $l#!0 *oles e4it !oul< 3iel< !lues t*#t *elp 'in#ll3 unite #ll t*e !urrent i<e#s #$out t*e 'or!es o' n#ture un<er # Ot*eor3 o' ever3t*in2.O
A-ack ho-es create. 10 partic-e acce-erators are har6-ess an. on-0 -ast *or a *raction o* a secon.
Ao0-e/ 2009 BAl#nF ?67@6 6os4i! .o2F Joo4s<#3 Fe#rs 5p#r .#wsuitL
*ttp8//!os4i!lo2.4sn$!.4sn.!o4/#r!*ive/2//&//3/2%/&23(24.#spxC**+#0u is # t*eoreti!#l p*3si!ist #t t*e 6it3 6olle2e o'
7ew Gor0
;un#w#3 $l#!0 *olesH 5o4e p*3si!ists s#3 t*e .)6 !oul< !re#te 4i!ros!opi! $l#!0 *oles t*#t woul< *#n2 #roun< 'or Must #
tin3 'r#!tion o' # se!on< #n< t*en <e!#3. 5#n!*o #n< W#2ner worr3 t*#t 4illions o' $l#!0 *oles 4i2*t so4e*ow persist #n<
!o#les!e into # !o4p#!t 2r#vit#tion#l 4#ss t*#t woul< <r#w in ot*er 4#tter #n< 2row $i22er . ,*#tPs pure s!ien!e 'i!tionF
s#i< ?i!*io +#0uF # t*eoreti!#l p*3si!ist #t t*e 6it3 6olle2e o' 7ew Gor0. O,*ese $l#!0 *oles <onPt live ver3 lon2F #n<
t*e3 *#ve 4i!ros!opi! ener23F #n< so t*e3 #re *#r4lessFO *e tol< 4e.
Power*u- cos6ic ra0s shou-. ha2e a-rea.0 create. 1-ack ho-es an. strange-ets
7ew Gor0
,*e !os4i!1r#3 #r2u4ent *#s $een #pplie< to t*e $l#!01*ole #n< str#n2elet s!en#rios #s well . "' su!* <#n2erous t*in2s !#n
$e !re#te<F w*3 *#venPt t*e3 #lre#<3 e#ten up E#rt*F #lon2 wit* ot*er pl#netsF st#rs or w*ole 2#l#xies in t*e $illions o' 3e#rs
sin!e t*e universe #roseK ,o #nswer t*#t AuestionF 5#n!*o #n< W#2ner pose # !ounter#r2u4ent8 :er*#ps !os4i!1r#3
!ollisions re#ll3 #re !re#tin2 tin3 $l#!0 *oles or str#n2eletsF $ut t*ose little $its o' <oo4s<#3 Eip $3 too '#st to !#use #n3
trou$le. "n t*e .)6F t*e3 s#3F t*e $#< stu'' !oul< *#n2 #roun< lon2 enou2* to $e !#pture< $3 E#rt*Ps 2r#vit3 #n< set o'' # !#t#strop*e. "n responseF p#rti!le p*3si!ists #re
<evelopin2 !ounter1!ounter#r2u4ents 1 $#se< on t*eir t*eoreti!#l wor0 #s well #s <#t# 'ro4 #strono4i!#l o$serv#tions #n< experi4ents #t t*e ;el#tivisti! )e#v31"on 6olli<er. For
inst#n!eF t*e p*3si!ists woul< s#3 t*#t enou2* o' t*e <oo4s<#3 p#rti!les still s*oul< *#ve $een !#pture< $3 neutron st#rs or
!os4i! 2#s !lou<s to *#ve #n i4p#!t. 7o su!* i4p#!t *#s ever $een seen. ,*ere'oreF no <oo4s<#3.
&7
2009
Partic-e Acce-erators won5t cause e+tinction 4 ph0sicists agree an. e6pirica- e2i.ence pro2es
An<ers San.1ergF :ost<o!tor#l rese#r!* #ssist#nt 'or t*e >x'or< 2roup o' t*e EU E7)A76E :roMe!t #t t*e Ue*iro
6entre 'or :r#!ti!#l Et*i!s #n< rese#r!* #sso!i#te #t t*e Future o' )u4#nit3 "nstitute At >x'or< Universit3F 2/09
BJExtin!tion ;is0s #n< :#rti!le :*3si!s8 W*en Are ,*e3 Wort* itKFL 3/2(F
*ttp8//www.pr#!ti!#let*i!snews.!o4/pr#!ti!#let*i!s/2//&//3/extin!tion1ris0.*t4lF +un#lC
,*e .#r2e )#<ron 6olli<erF .)6F is t*e worl<s $i22est p#rti!le #!!eler#tor #n< <ue to st#rt investi2#tin2 t*e stru!ture o'
4#tter l#ter t*is 3e#r. 7ow # l#wsuit *#s $een 'ile< in t*e U5 !#llin2 on t*e U.5. ep#rt4ent o' Ener23F Fer4il#$F t*e
7#tion#l 5!ien!e Foun<#tion #n< 6E;7 to stop prep#r#tions 'or st#rtin2 t*e .)6 'or # re#ssess4ent o' t*e s#'et3 o' t*e
!olli<er. ,*e re#son is 'e#rs t*#t t*e *i2* ener23 !ollisions !oul< !#use so4e 'or4 o' <ev#st#tin2 e''e!t t*re#tenin2 t*e
E#rt*8 eit*er t*e 'or4#tion o' 4ini#ture $l#!0 *olesF str#n2elets t*#t #$sor$ 4#tter to 4#0e 4ore str#n2elets or even # <e!#3
o' t*e v#!uu4 st#te o' t*e universe. 7ee<less to s#3F p*3si!ists #re ver3 !ert#in t*ere #re no ris0s. @ut *ow !ert#in s*oul<
we $e #$out s#'et3 w*en t*ere !oul< $e # ris0 to t*e surviv#l o' t*e *u4#n spe!iesK ,*e 4#in re#son p*3si!ists #re not
worrie< is t*#t #ll o' t*e <is#ster s!en#rios involve ver3 spe!ul#tive p*3si!s. 6urrent t*eories <o not see4 to pre<i!t #n3
<#n2er #n< so4e <is#ster !#ses woul< reAuire p#rti!les t*#t *#ve never $een o$serve< <espite extensive se#r!*es. @ut t*is
reAuires our un<erst#n<in2 to $e #!!ur#teF so4et*in2 t*e experi4ent itsel' is #$out to test. :er*#ps t*e 4ost !onvin!in2
#r2u4ent t*#t we #re s#'e is t*#t i' p#rti!le !ollisions !oul< !oll#pse pl#netsF w*3 is t*e 4oon Bor #n3 ot*er *e#venl3 $o<3C
still #roun< #'ter $illions o' 3e#rs o' $o4$#r<4ent t*#t o'ten involve ener2ies '#r l#r2er t*#n w*#t t*e .)6 ever !oul<
pro<u!eK ,*e sol#r s3ste4 ou2*t to $e littere< wit* str#n2e 4#tter #n< $l#!0 *oles i' # 4e#sl3 14 ,e- !oul< !#use <#n2er.
On 1a-ance/ 1ene*its outweigh -ow risk o* acce-erators
An<ers San.1ergF :ost<o!tor#l rese#r!* #ssist#nt 'or t*e >x'or< 2roup o' t*e EU E7)A76E :roMe!t #t t*e Ue*iro
6entre 'or :r#!ti!#l Et*i!s #n< rese#r!* #sso!i#te #t t*e Future o' )u4#nit3 "nstitute At >x'or< Universit3F 2/09
BJExtin!tion ;is0s #n< :#rti!le :*3si!s8 W*en Are ,*e3 Wort* itKFL 3/2(F
*ttp8//www.pr#!ti!#let*i!snews.!o4/pr#!ti!#let*i!s/2//&//3/extin!tion1ris0.*t4lF +un#lC
Fortun#tel3F 7i!0 @ostro4 #n< ?#x ,e24#r0 'oun< # w#3 o' esti4#tin2 t*e ris0 t*#t <oes not su''er t*is 0in< o' $i#s. ,*e
tri!0 is to !onsi<er w*en t*e lu!03 o$servers #ppe#r in t*e *istor3 o' t*e universe. "n # ris03 universe it is ver3 unli0el3 'or
#n o$server to e4er2e l#te r#t*er t*#n e#rl3F sin!e t*eir pl#net woul< $e li0el3 to *#ve $een <ev#st#te<. "n # s#'e universe
t*ere woul< $e no su!* $i#s. :lu22in2 in esti4#tes o' w*en # t3pi!#l pl#net 'or4s #n< *ow ol< t*e E#rt* isF t*e3 !oul<
s*ow t*#t t*e r#te o' steriliE#tion o' pl#nets 'or #n3 re#son is less t*#n one in # $illion per 3e#r. =oo< newsF #n< it <oesnPt
even reAuire #ssu4in2 # p#rti!ul#r 0in< o' <is#ster. )oweverF t*is 4i2*t not $e enou2* to !#l4 so4e people. A s4#ll $ut
'inite !*#n!e o' 2lo$#l <estru!tion see4s to $e # ris0 we s*oul< not t#0e i' we !#n e#sil3 #voi< it. :er*#ps surprisin2l3F t*is
4#3 not $e true i' t*ere #re $ene'its lin0e< to t#0in2 t*e ris0. "4#2ine t*#t t*ere is # one in # $illion !*#n!e t*#t turnin2 on
t*e .)6 <estro3s 4#n0in<F #n< ot*erwise 4#0es ever3 *u4#n li'e on #ver#2e W ti4es $etter. W*en is t*e expe!te< $ene'it
o' t#0in2 t*e ris0 l#r2er t*#n t*e v#lue o' not t#0in2 t*e ris0K "t turns out W onl3 nee<s to $e 1.////////1///////& 1 #
4inus!ule #4ount $etter.
&9
2009
!o threat o* co--i.er i6pacts
7E"! 0& BJ5,UG >F :>,E7,"A..G A7=E;>U5 E-E7,5 U;"7= )EA-G1">7 6>.."5">75 A, ,)E
.)68 ;E:>;, >F ,)E .)6 5AFE,G 5,UG =;>U:FO 2/2&F *ttp8//<o!.!ern.!*/3ellowrep/2//3/2//31//1/p1.p<'F
+un#lC
We review t*e possi$ilit3 o' pro<u!in2 <#n2erous o$Me!ts <urin2 *e#v31ion !ollisions #t t*e .#r2e )#<ron 6olli<er. We
!onsi<er #ll su!* o$Me!ts t*#t *#ve $een t*eoreti!#ll3 envis#2e<F su!* #s ne2#tivel3 !*#r2e< str#n2eletsF 2r#vit#tion#l $l#!0
*olesF #n< 4#2neti! 4onopoles. We 'in< no $#sis 'or #n3 !on!eiv#$le t*re#t.
!o risk o* 1-ack ho-e or strange-ets
;. .) Qa**e/ :ro'essor o' :*3si!s #t ?",F et a-/ 2000 BJ;eview o' 5pe!ul#tive Ois#ster 5!en#riosO #t ;)"6FL
;ev.?o<.:*3s. %2F *ttp8//#rxiv.or2/#$s/*ep1p*/((1/333F +un#lC
We <is!uss spe!ul#tive <is#ster s!en#rios inspire< $3 *3pot*eti!#l new 'un<#4ent#l pro!esses t*#t 4i2*t o!!ur in *i2*
ener23 rel#tivisti! *e#v3 ion !ollisions. We esti4#te t*e p#r#4eters relev#nt to $l#!0 *ole pro<u!tionN we 'in< t*#t t*e3 #re
#$sur<l3 s4#ll. We s*ow t*#t ot*er #!!eler#tor #n< Bespe!i#ll3C !os4i! r#3 environ4ents *#ve #lre#<3 provi<e< '#r 4ore
#uspi!ious opportunities 'or tr#nsition to # new v#!uu4 st#teF so t*#t existin2 o$serv#tions provi<e strin2ent $oun<s. We
<is!uss in 4ost <et#il t*e possi$ilit3 o' pro<u!in2 # <#n2erous str#n2elet. We #r2ue t*#t 'our sep#r#te reAuire4ents #re
ne!ess#r3 'or t*is to o!!ur8 existen!e o' l#r2e st#$le str#n2eletsF 4et#st#$ilit3 o' inter4e<i#te siEe str#n2eletsF ne2#tive
!*#r2e 'or str#n2elets #lon2 t*e st#$ilit3 lineF #n< pro<u!tion o' inter4e<i#te siEe str#n2elets in t*e *e#v3 ion environ4ent.
We <is!uss $ot* t*eoreti!#l #n< experi4ent#l re#sons w*3 e#!* o' t*ese #ppe#rs unli0el3N in p#rti!ul#rF we 0now o' no
pl#usi$le su22estion 'or w*3 t*e t*ir< or espe!i#ll3 t*e 'ourt* 4i2*t $e true. =iven 4ini4#l p*3si!#l #ssu4ptions t*e
!ontinue< existen!e o' t*e ?oonF in t*e 'or4 we 0now itF <espite $illions o' 3e#rs o' !os4i! r#3 exposureF provi<es
power'ul e4piri!#l evi<en!e #2#inst t*e possi$ilit3 o' <#n2erous str#n2elet pro<u!tion.
&9
2009
A2H PA"I7%E A77E%E"AO" A%A7= BO%E IMPA7
!ot !EA"%D enough energ0 to create a 1-ack ho-e 4 an. an0 ho-e wou-. 1e *-eeting an. cou-.n5t consu6e e2en one
photon
We11 in 502 B5tep*enF :*3si!ist #t >pen Universit3 o' .on<onF J"' t*e Universe "s ,ee4in2 wit* Aliens... W*ere "s
Ever3$o<3K Fi't3 5olutions to Fer4iPs :#r#<ox #n< t*e :ro$le4 o' Extr#terrestri#l .i'eLF p. 12&112(
,*e 'lurr3 o' !on!ern wit* t*e ;)"6 $e2#n w*en so4eone !#l!ul#te< t*#t t*e ener2ies involve< in t*e experi4ents woul<
$e enou2* to !re#te # tin3 $l#!0 *ole. ,*e 'e#r w#s t*#t t*e $l#!0 *ole woul< tunnel <own 'ro4 .on2 "sl#n< to E#rt*Ps
!enter #n< pro!ee< to <evour our pl#net. Fortun#tel3F #s 4ore sensi$le !#l!ul#tions Aui!0l3 s*owe<F t*ere is essenti#ll3 no
!*#n!e o' t*is *#ppenin2. ,o !re#te t*e s4#llest $l#!0 *ole t*#t !#n exist reAuires ener2ies #$out 1/ 4illion $illion ti4es
2re#ter t*#n t*e ;)"6 !#n 2ener#te.PO BEven i' # p#rti!le #!!eler#tor !oul< 2ener#te su!* ener2iesF t*e $l#!0 *ole it
pro<u!e< woul< $e # pun3 t*in2 in<ee<F wit* onl3 # 'leetin2 existen!e. "t woul< stru22le to !onsu4e # protonF let #lone
E#rt*.C
It wou-. take a partic-e acce-erator the si<e o* the ga-a+0 to create the s6a--est o* 1-ack ho-es 4 our current
techno-og0 is ten 6i--ion 1i--ion ti6es too weak
!ew Scientist/ 99 B&12&F JA @l#!0 )ole Ate 43 :l#netLF
*ttp8//www.0resswor0s.!o4/5!ien!e/AQ$l#!0Q*oleQ#teQ43Qpl#net.*t4C
Wit*in 24 *oursF t*e l#$or#tor3 issue< # re$utt#l8 t*e ris0 o' su!* # !#t#strop*e w#s essenti#ll3 Eero. ,*e @roo0*#ven
7#tion#l .#$or#tor3 t*#t runs t*e !olli<er *#< set up #n intern#tion#l !o44ittee o' experts to !*e!0 out t*is terri'3in2
possi$ilit3. @ut @7. <ire!tor Io*n ?#r$ur2erF insiste< t*#t t*e ris0s *#< #lre#<3 $een wor0e< out. )e 'or4e< t*e !o44ittee si4pl3 to s#3 w*3 t*e3 #re so !on'i<ent t*e E#rt* is s#'eF #n< put t*eir
#r2u4ents on t*e We$ to $e re#< $3 # relieve< pu$li!. Even soF 4#n3 people will $e stunne< to le#rn t*#t p*3si!ists 'elt worrie< enou2* even to 4ull over t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t # new 4#!*ine 4i2*t <estro3 us
#ll. "n '#!tF t*e3Pve $een 'rettin2 #$out it 'or over 5/ 3e#rs. ,*e 'irst p*3si!ist to 2et t*e !oll3wo$$les w#s E<w#r< ,ellerF t*e '#t*er o' t*e *3<ro2en $o4$. "n Iul3 1(42F *e w#s one o' # s4#ll 2roup o'
t*eorists invite< to # se!ret 4eetin2 #t t*e Universit3 o' 6#li'orni#F @er0ele3F to s0et!* out t*e <esi2n o' # pr#!ti!#l #to4i! $o4$. ,ellerF w*o w#s stu<3in2 t*e re#!tions t*#t t#0e pl#!e in # nu!le#r
explosionF stunne< *is !olle#2ues $3 su22estin2 t*#t t*e !oloss#l te4per#tures 2ener#te< 4i2*t i2nite t*e E#rt*Ps #t4osp*ere. W*ile so4e o' *is !olle#2ues i44e<i#tel3 <is4isse< t*e t*re#t #s nonsenseF I.
;o$ert >ppen*ei4erF <ire!tor o' t*e ?#n*#tt#n :roMe!tF set up to $uil< t*e #to4 $o4$F too0 it seriousl3 enou2* to <e4#n< # stu<3. ,*e reportF !o<en#4e< .A16/2F w#s 4#<e pu$li! onl3 in Fe$ru#r3 1(%3.
"t !on!entr#te< on t*e onl3 pl#usi$le re#!tion 'or <estro3in2 t*e E#rt*F 'usion $etween nu!lei o' nitro2en114. ,*e report !on'ir4e< w*#t t*e s!epti!s *#< insiste< #ll #lon28 t*e nu!le#r 'ire$#ll !ools <own too
'#r Aui!0l3 to tri22er # sel'1sust#inin2 'ire in t*e #t4osp*ere. Get in 7ove4$er 1(%5F he Au--etin o* the Ato6ic Scientists !l#i4e< t*#t Art*ur 6o4ptonF # le#<in2 4e4$er o' t*e ?#n*#tt#n :roMe!tF *#<
s#i< t*#t t*ere re#ll3 w#s # ris0 o' i2nitin2 t*e #t4osp*ere. "t turne< out to $e # !#se o' 6*inese w*ispers8 6o4pton *#< 4entione< t*e !#l!ul#tion <urin2 #n interview wit* t*e A4eri!#n writer :e#rl @u!0F
w*o *#< 2ot t*e wron2 en< o' t*e sti!0. Even soF t*e .os Al#4os stu<3 is # w#ters*e< in t*e *istor3 o' s!ien!eF 'or it 4#r0s t*e 'irst ti4e s!ientists too0 seriousl3 t*e ris0 t*#t t*e3 4i2*t #!!i<ent#ll3 $low us
#ll up. ,*e issue 0eeps r#isin2 its u2l3 *e#<. "n re!ent 3e#rs t*e 4#in 'o!us o' 'e#r *#s $een t*e 2i#nt 4#!*ines use< $3 p#rti!le p*3si!ists.
6oul< t*e violent !ollisions insi<e su!* # 4#!*ine !re#te so4et*in2 n#st3K OEver3 ti4e # new 4#!*ine *#s $een $uilt #t
6E;7FO s#3s p*3si!ist Alv#ro <e ;uMul#F Ot*e Auestion *#s $een pose< #n< '#!e<.O >ne o' t*e 4ost ni2*t4#ris* s!en#rios is
<estru!tion $3 $l#!0 *ole. @l#!0 *oles #re $otto4less pits wit* #n ins#ti#$le #ppetite 'or #n3t*in2 #n< ever3t*in2. "' # tin3
$l#!0 *ole poppe< into existen!e in ;)"6F t*e stor3 2oesF it woul< $urrow <own 'ro4 .on2 "sl#n< to t*e !entre o' t*e E#rt*
#n< e#t our pl#net11or $low it #p#rt wit* #ll t*e ener23 rele#se<. 5o w*3 #re p*3si!ists !onvin!e< t*#t t*erePs no !*#n!e o'
t*is *#ppenin2K WellF t*e s4#llest possi$le $l#!0 *ole is #roun< 1/
135
4etres #!ross Bt*e so1!#lle< :l#n!0 .en2t*C. An3t*in2
s4#ller Must 2ets wipe< out $3 t*e Au#ntu4 'lu!tu#tions in sp#!e1ti4e #roun< it. @ut even su!* # tin3 $l#!0 *ole woul<
wei2* #roun< 1/ 4i!ro2r#4s11#$out t*e s#4e #s # spe!0 o' <ust. ,o !re#te o$Me!ts wit* so 4u!* 4#ss $3 !ollisions in #
p#rti!le #!!eler#tor <e4#n<s ener2ies o' 1/
1(
2i2#1ele!tronvoltsF so t*e 4ost power'ul existin2 !olli<er is ten 4illion $illion
ti4es too 'ee$le to 4#0e # $l#!0 *ole. 5!#lin2 up to<#3Ps te!*nolo23F we woul< nee< #n #!!eler#tor #s $i2 #s t*e =#l#x3 to
<o it. An< even t*enF t*e resultin2 $l#!0 *ole woul<nPt $e $i2 enou2* to sw#llow t*e E#rt*. 5u!* # tin3 $l#!0 *ole woul<
ev#por#te in 1/
142
se!on<s in # $l#st o' )#w0in2 r#<i#tion F # pro!ess <is!overe< $3 5tep*en )#w0in2 in t*e 1(%/s. ,o l#st lon2 enou2* even to $e2in su!0in2 in 4#tter
r#t*er t*#n 2oin2 o'' popF # $l#!0 *ole woul< *#ve to $e 4#n3 or<ers o' 4#2nitu<e $i22er. A!!or<in2 to 6li'' :i!0overF #ut*or o' A-ack Bo-esH A ra2e-erRs Cui.eF OEven # $l#!0 *ole wit* t*e 4#ss o'
?ount Everest woul< *#ve # r#<ius o' onl3 #$out 1/
115
4etresF rou2*l3 t*e siEe o' #n #to4i! nu!leus. 6urrent t*in0in2 is t*#t it woul< $e *#r< 'or su!* # $l#!0 *ole to sw#llow #n3t*in2 #t #ll11even
!onsu4in2 # proton or neutron woul< $e <i''i!ult.O
80
2009
A2H PA"I7%E A77E%A"AO"S S"A!CE%ES IMPA7S
Strange-ets are a-- h0pe 4 scientists sa0 the0 .on5t rea--0 e+ist) he0 are >ust 6essing with peop-e) his su1su6es
their e2i.ence)
7ew Gor0
5tr#n2eletsH 54#s*in2 protons to2et*er #t *i2* enou2* ener2ies !oul< !re#te new !o4$in#tions o' Au#r0sF t*e p#rti!les t*#t
protons #re 4#<e o'. 5#n!*o #n< W#2ner worr3 t*#t # n#st3 !o4$in#tion 0nown #s # st#$leF ne2#tivel3 !*#r2e< str#n2elet
!oul< t*eoreti!#ll3 turn ever3t*in2 it tou!*es into str#n2elets #s well. +#0u !o4p#re< t*is to t*e #n!ient 43t* o' t*e ?i<#s
tou!*. OWe see no evi<en!e o' t*is $iE#rre t*eor3FO *e s#i<. O>n!e in # w*ileF we trot it out to s!#re t*e p#nts o'' people.
@ut itPs not serious.O
Power*u- cos6ic ra0s shou-. ha2e a-rea.0 create. 1-ack ho-es an. strange-ets
7ew Gor0
,*e !os4i!1r#3 #r2u4ent *#s $een #pplie< to t*e $l#!01*ole #n< str#n2elet s!en#rios #s well . "' su!* <#n2erous t*in2s !#n
$e !re#te<F w*3 *#venPt t*e3 #lre#<3 e#ten up E#rt*F #lon2 wit* ot*er pl#netsF st#rs or w*ole 2#l#xies in t*e $illions o' 3e#rs
sin!e t*e universe #roseK ,o #nswer t*#t AuestionF 5#n!*o #n< W#2ner pose # !ounter#r2u4ent8 :er*#ps !os4i!1r#3
!ollisions re#ll3 #re !re#tin2 tin3 $l#!0 *oles or str#n2eletsF $ut t*ose little $its o' <oo4s<#3 Eip $3 too '#st to !#use #n3
trou$le. "n t*e .)6F t*e3 s#3F t*e $#< stu'' !oul< *#n2 #roun< lon2 enou2* to $e !#pture< $3 E#rt*Ps 2r#vit3 #n< set o'' #
!#t#strop*e. "n responseF p#rti!le p*3si!ists #re <evelopin2 !ounter1!ounter#r2u4ents 1 $#se< on t*eir t*eoreti!#l wor0 #s
well #s <#t# 'ro4 #strono4i!#l o$serv#tions #n< experi4ents #t t*e ;el#tivisti! )e#v31"on 6olli<er. For inst#n!eF t*e
p*3si!ists woul< s#3 t*#t enou2* o' t*e <oo4s<#3 p#rti!les still s*oul< *#ve $een !#pture< $3 neutron st#rs or !os4i! 2#s
!lou<s to *#ve #n i4p#!t. 7o su!* i4p#!t *#s ever $een seen. ,*ere'oreF no <oo4s<#3.
81
2009
A2H PA"I7%E A77E%E"AO" S"A!CE%ES IMPA7
Dour strange-ets scenario is a >oke
Ever3$o<3K Fi't3 5olutions to Fer4iPs :#r#<ox #n< t*e :ro$le4 o' Extr#terrestri#l .i'eLF p. 12(C
5o we !#n sleep soun<l3F s#'e in t*e 0nowle<2e t*#t t*e ;)"6 will not pro<u!e # $l#!0 *ole. We !#n rest #ssure<F tooF t*#t
it will not <estro3 E#rt* t*rou2* t*e pro<u!tion o' str#n2elets T !*un0s o' 4#tter !ont#inin2 so1!#lle< str#n2e Au#r0s in
#<<ition to t*e usu#l #rr#n2e4ent o' Au#r0s.OP 5o '#r no one *#s seen str#n2eletsF $ut p*3si!ists won<ere< w*et*er
experi4ents #t t*e ;)"6 4i2*t pro<u!e t*e4. "' str#n2elets were pro<u!e<F t*en t*ere is # ris0 t*e3 4i2*t re#!t wit* nu!lei
o' or<in#r3 4#tter #n< !onvert t*e4 into str#n2e 4#tter T # !*#in re#!tion !oul< t*en tr#ns4ute t*e entire pl#net into
str#n2e 4#tter. )oweverF *#vin2 r#ise< t*e possi$ilit3 o' !#t#strop*eF p*3si!ists were Aui!0 to re#ssure ever3one.
6#l!ul#tions s*ow t*#t str#n2elets #re #l4ost !ert#inl3 unst#$leN even i' t*e3 #re st#$leF t*e ;)"6 woul< #l4ost1 !ert#inl3
not *#ve t*e ener23 to !re#te t*e4N #n< even i' t*e3 were !re#te< #t t*e ;)"6F t*eir positive !*#r2e woul< !#use t*e4 to $e
s!reene< 'ro4 inter#!tions $3 # surroun<in2 ele!tron !lou<.162
his is >ust stupi.
7ew 5!ientistF ((
B&12&F JA @l#!0 )ole Ate 43 :l#netLF *ttp8//www.0resswor0s.!o4/5!ien!e/AQ$l#!0Q*oleQ#teQ43Qpl#net.*t4C
5tr#n2elets #re !*un0s o' 4#tter 4#<e 'ro4 Ostr#n2eO Au#r0s #s well #s t*e usu#l OupO #n< O<ownO t3pes o' or<in#r3 4#tter.
"t 4i2*t $e possi$le to 4#0e t*e4 in p#rti!le #!!eler#tors li0e ;)"6. ,*e ris0 is t*#t # str#n2elet 4i2*t !onsu4e nu!lei o'
or<in#r3 4#tter #n< !onvert t*e4 into 4ore str#n2e 4#tterF tr#ns4utin2 t*e entire E#rt* into # str#n2e14#tter pl#net. @ut
*#vin2 r#ise< t*is #pp#llin2 prospe!tF Wil!Ee0 Aui!0l3 <is4isse< it. An< Auite ri2*tl3F s#3s t*e worl<Ps le#<in2 expert on
str#n2eletsF ;o$ert I#''e o' t*e ?#ss#!*usetts "nstitute o' ,e!*nolo23. O5tr#n2elets #re #l4ost !ert#inl3 not st#$leF #n< i'
t*e3 #reF t*e3 #l4ost !ert#inl3 !#nnot $e pro<u!e< #t ;)"6FO *e s#3s. OAn< even i' t*e3 were pro<u!e< #t ;)"6F t*e3
#l4ost !ert#inl3 *#ve positive !*#r2e #n< woul< $e s!reene< 'ro4 'urt*er inter#!tions $3 # surroun<in2 !lou< o' ele!trons.O
Ever3 one o' t*ese steps in t*e #r2u4ent woul< *#ve to $e 'l#we< 'or str#n2elets to $e # ris0.
82
2009
A2H PA"I7%E A77E%E"AO" @A7UUM IMPA7S
Partic-e Acc-eration won5t cause a 2acuu6 or re2erse the uni2erse
Ever3$o<3K Fi't3 5olutions to Fer4iPs :#r#<ox #n< t*e :ro$le4 o' Extr#terrestri#l .i'eLF p. 12(113/C
,*e unli0el3 lit#n3 o' !#t#strop*es t*#t t*e ;)"6 B#n< ot*er p#rti!le #!!eler#torsC 4i2*t in'li!t upon us <oes not en< wit*
$l#!0 *oles #n< str#n2elets. :#ul ixonF # ps3!*olo2ist wit* onl3 # *#E3 2r#sp o' p*3si!sF $elieves !ollisions #t t*e
,ev#tron p#rti!le #!!eler#tor #t Fer4il#$ 4i2*t tri22er t*e !oll#pse o' t*e Au#ntu4 v#!uu4 st#te. A v#!uu4 is si4pl3 #
st#te o' le#st ener23. A!!or<in2 to !urrent !os4olo2i!#l t*eoriesF t*e e#rl3 Universe 4#3 *#ve $rie'l3 $e!o4e tr#ppe< in #
4et#st#$le st#te8 # '#lse v#!uu4. ,*e Universe eventu#ll3 un<erwent # p*#se tr#nsition into t*e present OtrueO v#!uu4F unle#s*in2 in t*e pro!ess # !oloss#l #4ount o' ener23 T it is
si4il#r to w*#t *#ppens w*en ste#4 un<er2oes # p*#se tr#nsition to 'or4 liAui< w#ter. @ut w*#t i' our present v#!uu4 is not t*e OtrueO v#!uu4K ;ees #n<
)ut pu$lis*e< # p#per in 1(&3 su22estin2 t*is !oul< $e t*e !#se.is3 "' # 4ore st#$le v#!uu4 existsF t*en it is possi$le 'or #
OMoltO to !#use our Universe to tunnel to t*e new v#!uu4 T #n< t*e point #t w*i!* t*e Molt o!!urs woul< see # <estru!tive
w#ve o' ener23 spre#< outw#r< #t t*e spee< o' li2*t. ,*e ver3 l#ws o' p*3si!s woul< !*#n2e in t*e w#0e o' t*e w#ve o' true v#!uu4. ixon t*ou2*t t*#t experi4ents #t
t*e ,ev#tron 4i2*t !#use # Molt t*#t !oul< !oll#pse t*e v#!uu4. )e w#s so worrie< *e too0 to pi!0etin2 Fer4il#$ wit* # *o4e4#<e $#nner s#3in2 O)o4e o' t*e next supernov#.O164 >n!e #2#inF
*oweverF we nee< not worr3 un<ul3 #$out #n #!!eler#tor1in<u!e< #po!#l3pse. As ;ees #n< )ut t*e4selves pointe< out in t*eir ori2in#l p#perF t*rou2* t*e p*eno4enon o'
!os4i! r#3s 7#ture *#s $een !#rr3in2 out p#rti!le1p*3si!s experi4ents 'or $illions o' 3e#rs #t ener2ies 4u!* *i2*er t*#n
#n3t*in2 4#n0in< !#n #!*ieve.165 "' *i2*1ener23 !ollisions 4#<e it possi$le 'or t*e Universe to tunnel to t*e OtrueO
v#!uu4 T wellF !os4i! r#3s woul< *#ve !#use< t*e tunnelin2 to o!!ur lon2 #2o. ,*e !on!ept o' #n #!!eler#tor #!!i<ent
!#usin2 t*e <estru!tion o' #Q worl< Bor t*e w*ole UniverseF in t*e !#se o' # v#!uu4 !oll#pseC is re#ll3 # non1st#rter. ,*e
p*3si!s o' t*ese events is not 0nown per'e!tl3 T t*#t is w*3 p*3si!ists #re !#rr3in2 out t*e rese#r!* T $ut t*e3 #re well enou2* 0nown 'or us
to re#liEe t*#t t*e <oo414er!*#nts *#ve it wron2 in t*is !#se. We *#ve to loo0 elsew*ere 'or # resolution o' t*e p#r#<ox.
7os6ic 7o--isions pro2e 4 0our argu6ent is 6oronic
!ew Scientist/ 99 B&12&F JA @l#!0 )ole Ate 43 :l#netLF
*ttp8//www.0resswor0s.!o4/5!ien!e/AQ$l#!0Q*oleQ#teQ43Qpl#net.*t4C
@ut <onPt *e#ve # si2* o' relie' Must 3et. ,*e @roo0*#ven s!ientists *#ve #lso !onsi<ere< #n even 4ore #l#r4in2 possi$ilit3 t*#n t*e <estru!tion o' t*e E#rt*. 6oul< t*eir 4i2*t3 4#!*ine
tri22er t*e !oll#pse o' t*e Au#ntu4 v#!uu4K Du#ntu4 t*eor3 pre<i!ts t*#t t*e Universe is 'ille< wit* # seet*in2 4elee o' so1!#lle< v#!uu4 ener23. ,*#t 4i2*t see4 #n unli0el3
t*re#t to !ivilis#tion. A'ter #llF itPs si4pl3 t*e #ver#2e ener23 o' t*e 4ess o' p#rti!les t*#t 'lit in #n< out o' existen!e #ll #roun< us. As t*e Universe exp#n<e< #n< !oole<F t*#t v#!uu4 ener23 <roppe< <own to
t*e lowest possi$le level. >r <i< itK W*#t i' t*e Universe is still O*un2 upO in #n unst#$le st#teK ,*en # Molt o' t*e ri2*t #4ount o' ener23 in # s4#ll sp#!e 4i2*t tri22er t*e !oll#pse o' t*e Au#ntu4 v#!uu4
st#te. A w#ve o' <estru!tion woul< tr#vel outw#r<s #t t*e spee< o' li2*tF #lterin2 t*e Universe in $iE#rre w#3s. "t woul< $e r#t*er $#< news 'or usF #t le#st8 or<in#r3 4#tter woul< !e#se to exist. "n 1((5F :#ul
ixonF # ps3!*olo2ist #t t*e Universit3 o' )#w#iiF pi!0ete< Fer4il#$ in "llinois $e!#use *e 'e#re< t*#t its ,ev#tron !olli<er
4i2*t tri22er # Au#ntu4 v#!uu4 !oll#pse. ,*en #2#in in 1((&F on # l#te ni2*t t#l0 r#<io s*owF *e w#rne< t*#t t*e !olli<er !oul< O$low t*e Universe to s4it*ereensO. @ut
p#rti!le p*3si!ists *#ve t*is !overe<. "n 1(&3F ?#rtin ;ees o' 6#4$ri<2e Universit3 #n< :iet )ut o' t*e "nstitute o'
A<v#n!e< 5tu<3F :rin!etonF pointe< out t*#t !os4i! r#3s B*i2*1ener23 !*#r2e< p#rti!les su!* #s protonsC *#ve $een
s4#s*in2 into t*in2s in our !os4os 'or #eons. ?#n3 o' t*ese !ollisions rele#se ener2ies *un<re<s o' 4illions o' ti4es
*i2*er t*#n #n3t*in2 ;)"6 !#n 4uster11#n< 3et no <is#strous v#!uu4 !oll#pse *#s o!!urre<. ,*e Universe is still *ere.
,*is #r2u4ent #lso sAu#s*es #n3 'e#rs #$out $l#!0 *oles or str#n2e 4#tter. "' it were possi$le 'or #n #!!eler#tor to !re#te
su!* # <oo4s<#3 o$Me!tF # !os4i! r#3 woul< *#ve <one so lon2 #2o. OWe #re ver3 2r#te'ul 'or !os4i! r#3sFO s#3s I#''e.
On-0 i.iotic ps0cho-ogists think this is true) Ph0sicists 4 actua- scientists who specia-i<e in this *ie-. think it5s .u61
!ew Dork i6es/ 99 B?#l!ol4 W. @rowneF JWon<erin2 )ow t*e Worl< Will En<K 5o4e ?or<#nt ,*ou2*ts 'ro4
:*3si!sLF Iul3 14F ./7C
A4on2 t*e outl#n<is* <oo4s<#3 s!en#rios <re#4e< up $3 so4e oos!ientists is t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t t*e ener23 <ensit3 o' Je4pt3L sp#!e in oour p#rt o' t*e universe represents # J'#lse v#!uu4L #n e4ptiness
perv#<e< $3 # !ert#in #4ount o' *i<<en ener23. ,*e 4en#!e is t*#t t*ere 4i2*t $e #not*er v#!uu4 wit* # lower ener23 level into w*i!* our p#rt o' t*e universe 4i2*t tu4$leF losin2 #ll its protons #n<
t*ere$3 o$liter#tin2 our ne!0 o' t*e univers#l wooo<sF ourselves in!lu<e<. "t *#s $een su22este< $3 non1p*3si!sistsF le< $3 :#ul ixonF # ps3!*olo2ist #t
t*e Universit3 o' )#w#iiF t*#t t*e power'ull ,ev#tron p#rti!le #!!eler#tor #t Fer4il#$ in "llinois Bw*i!* !olli<es p#rti!les
to2et*er #t # !o4$ine< ener23 o' two trillion ele!tronvoltsC 4i2*t p#!0 so 4u!* pun!* it !oul< st#rt # te#r in our 'rien<l3 sp#!e1ti4e #lon2
wit* its '#lse v#!uu4. 5u!* # !#t#strop*eF it is sur4ise<F woul< propo2#te #t t*e spee< o' li2*tF plun2in2 @#t#vi#F "ll.F t*e site o' Fer4il#$F #n< t*e rest o' t*e
universe into non1existen!e. :*3si!ists s!o'' #t t*is notionF s#3in2 t*#t t*e E#rt* is !ontinuousl3 peppere< $3 !os4i! r#3s
t*#t *#ve ener2ies up to 1/ to t*e 1(
t*
power ele!tronvolts #$out 1/ 4illion ti4es 4ore ener23 t*#n t*e 4ost potent
#!!eler#tor !ollisions #n< 3et our universe survives.
8&
2009
A2H CO%3,CO%3 7O%%ISIO!S I! PA"I7%E A77E%E"AIO! A U!ISUE "IS=
Wrong/ go-.,go-. co--isions a-so happen natura--0 4 it5s not uniIue
7ew 5!ientistF ((
B&12&F JA @l#!0 )ole Ate 43 :l#netLF *ttp8//www.0resswor0s.!o4/5!ien!e/AQ$l#!0Q*oleQ#teQ43Qpl#net.*t4C
@ut ;")6 is spe!i#lF 2oes t*e !ounter1#r2u4entF $e!#use it !olli<es 2ol< nu!lei to2et*er. W*#t i' so4e su$tle un'oreseen
p*3si!#l e''e!t 4#0es !ollisions $etween *e#v3 nu!lei p#rti!ul#rl3 <#n2erousK Fortun#tel3F t*ere #re so4e *e#v3 nu!lei
#4on2 t*e 4ultitu<e o' !os4i! r#3s t*#t 'l3 t*rou2* t*e 5ol#r 53ste4. OWe $elieve t*ere #re relev#nt !os4i! r#3
Oexperi4entsO 'or ever3 0nown t*re#tFO s#3s I#''e. OEven i' one insists on 2ol<12ol< !ollisionsF t*ere *#ve $een enou2*
su!* !ollisions on t*e sur'#!e o' t*e ?oon sin!e its 'or4#tion 5 $illion 3e#rs #2o to #ssure us t*#t ;)"6 experi4ents #re
s#'e.O
88
2009
A2H C"ED COO 4 $"O!%I!E
$ears o* Egre0 goo5 are out-an.ish an. 1ase. on .ate. in*or6ation
7enter *or "esponsi1-e !anotechno-og0F 200& BJ=re3 =oo< is # 54#ll "ssueL e!e4$er 13F *ttp8//!rn#no.or2/@1
=oo.*t4C
Fe#r o' run#w#3 n#no$ots F or J2re3 2ooLF is 4ore o' # pu$li! issue t*#n # s!ienti'i! pro$le4 . =re3 2oo #s # result o' out o' !ontrol
n#note!*nolo23 pl#3e< # st#rrin2 role in #n #rti!le title< O,*e =re3 =oo :ro$le4O $3 .#wren!e >s$orne in to<#3Ps New Yor Ti!es Magazine. ,*is #rti!le #n< ot*er re!ent 'i!tion#l portr#3#ls o' 2re3 2ooF #s
well #s st#te4ents $3 s!ientists su!* #s ;i!*#r< 54#lle3F #re si2ns o' si2ni'i!#nt pu$li! !on!ern. @ut #lt*ou2* $iosp*ere1e#tin2 2oo is # 2rippin2 stor3F !urrent
4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2 propos#ls !ont#in not*in2 even si4il#r to 2re3 2oo . ,*e i<e# t*#t n#note!*nolo23 4#nu'#!turin2
s3ste4s !oul< run #4o0 is $#se< on out<#te< in'or4#tion. ,*e e#rliest propos#ls 'or 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2 te!*nolo2ies e!*oe< $iolo2i!#l s3ste4s. )u2e nu4$ers
o' tin3 ro$ots !#lle< J#sse4$lersL woul< sel'1repli!#teF t*en wor0 to2et*er to $uil< l#r2e pro<u!tsF 4u!* li0e ter4ites $uil<in2 # ter4ite 4oun<. 5u!* s3ste4s #ppe#re< to run t*e ris0 o' 2oin2 out o' !ontrolF
per*#ps even Je#tin2L l#r2e portions o' t*e $iosp*ere. Eri! rexler w#rne< in 1(&6F JWe !#nnot #''or< !ert#in 0in<s o' #!!i<ents wit* repli!#tin2 #sse4$lers.L 5in!e t*enF *oweverF rexler #n< ot*ers
*#ve <evelope< 4o<els 'or 4#0in2 s#'er #n< 4ore e''i!ient 4#!*ine1li0e s3ste4s t*#t rese4$le #n #sse4$l3 line in #
'#!tor3 4ore t*#n #n3t*in2 $iolo2i!#l. ,*ese 4e!*#ni!#l <esi2ns were <es!ri$e< in <et#il in rexlerPs 1((2 se4in#l re'eren!e wor0F Nanos"ste!sF w*i!* <oes not even 4ention 'ree1
'lo#tin2 #utono4ous #sse4$lers. ;epli!#tin2 #sse4$lers will not $e use< 'or 4#nu'#!turin2. F#!tor3 <esi2ns usin2 inte2r#te< n#note!*nolo23 will $e 4u!* 4ore e''i!ient #t $uil<in2 pro<u!tsF #n< #
person#l n#no'#!tor3 is not*in2 li0e # 2re3 2oo n#no$ot. A st#tion#r3 t#$letop '#!tor3 usin2 onl3 prepro!esse< !*e4i!#ls woul< $e $ot* s#'er #n< e#sier to $uil<. .i0e # <rill press or # l#t*eF su!* # s3ste4
!oul< not run wil<. 53ste4s li0e t*is #re t*e $#sis 'or responsi$le 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2 propos#ls. ,o ev#lu#te Eri! rexlerPs te!*ni!#l i<e#s on t*e $#sis o' 2re3 2oo is to 4iss t*e '#r 4ore i4port#nt
poli!3 issues !re#te< $3 2ener#l1purpose n#nos!#le 4#nu'#!turin2. A 2re3 2oo ro$ot woul< '#!e # 4u!* *#r<er t#s0 t*#n 4erel3 repli!#tin2 itsel'. "t
woul< #lso *#ve to survive in t*e environ4entF 4ove #roun<F #n< !onvert w*#t it 'in<s into r#w 4#teri#ls #n< power. ,*is
woul< reAuire sop*isti!#te< !*e4istr3. 7one o' t*ese 'un!tions woul< $e p#rt o' # 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2 s3ste4. A 2re3 2oo
ro$ot woul< #lso reAuire # rel#tivel3 l#r2e !o4puter to store #n< pro!ess t*e 'ull $lueprint o' su!* # !o4plex <evi!e. A n#no$ot or n#no4#!*ine 4issin2 #n3 p#rt o' t*is 'un!tion#lit3 !oul< not 'un!tion #s
2re3 2oo. evelop4ent #n< use o' 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2 will !re#te not*in2 li0e 2re3 2ooF so it poses no ris0 o' pro<u!in2
2re3 2oo $3 #!!i<ent #t #n3 point.
ECre0 Coo5 is science *iction 4 nanotechno-og0 can 1e 1ui-t without se-* rep-icating) heir authors are >ust *ear,
6ongering)
Institute o* Ph0sics/ 2008 BJ7#note!*nolo23 pioneer sl#3s J2re3 2ooL 43t*sL Iul3 6F *ttp8//www.iop.or2/EI/news/1
topi!U%63/Mourn#l//(5%144&4C
Eri! rexlerF 0nown #s t*e '#t*er o' n#note!*nolo23F to<#3 BWe<nes<#3F (t* Iune 2//4C pu$lis*es # p#per t*#t #<4its t*#t
sel'1repli!#tin2 4#!*ines #re not vit#l 'or l#r2e1s!#le 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!tureF #n< t*#t n#note!*nolo231$#se< '#$ri!#tion
!#n $e t*orou2*l3 non1$iolo2i!#l #n< in*erentl3 s#'e. ,#l0 o' run#w#3 sel'1repli!#tin2 4#!*inesF or J2re3 2ooLF w*i!* *e
'irst !#utione< #2#inst in *is $oo0 En2ines o' 6re#tion in 1(&6F *#s spurre< 'e#rs t*#t *#ve lon2 *#4pere< r#tion#l pu$li!
<e$#te #$out n#note!*nolo23. Writin2 in t*e "nstitute o' :*3si!s Mourn#l 7#note!*nolo23F rexler sl#3s t*e 43t* t*#t 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!ture 4ust
use <#n2erous sel'1repli!#tin2 4#!*ines. J;un#w#3 repli!#torsF w*ile t*eoreti!#ll3 possi$le #!!or<in2 to t*e l#ws o'
p*3si!sF !#nnot $e $uilt wit* to<#39s n#note!*nolo23 toolsetFL s#3s r. rexlerF 'oun<er o' t*e Foresi2*t "nstituteF in 6#li'orni#F #n< 5enior ;ese#r!* Fellow o' t*e
?ole!ul#r En2ineerin2 ;ese#r!* "nstitute B?E;"C. )e !ontinue<8 J5el'1repli!#tin2 4#!*ines #renPt ne!ess#r3 'or 4ole!ul#r n#note!*nolo23F #n< #ren9t p#rt
o' !urrent <evelop4ent pl#ns.L ,*e p#perF 5#'e Exponenti#l ?#nu'#!turin2 $3 6*ris :*oenixF ire!tor o' ;ese#r!* o' t*e 6enter 'or ;esponsi$le 7#note!*nolo23F B6;7C #n< r. +. Eri! rexlerF #lso
w#rns t*#t s!#re4on2erin2 over re4ote s!en#rios su!* #s J2re3 2ooL is t#0in2 #ttention #w#3 'ro4 serious s#'et3 !on!ernsF
su!* #s # <eli$er#te #$use o' t*e te!*nolo23. :*oenix s#i<8 J;un#w#3 repli!#tion woul< onl3 $e t*e pro<u!t o' # <eli$er#te #n< <i''i!ult en2ineerin2 pro!essF not #n #!!i<ent.
F#r 4ore seriousF *oweverF is t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t # l#r2e1s!#le #n< !onvenient 4#nu'#!turin2 !#p#!it3 !oul< $e use< to 4#0e power'ul non1repli!#tin2 we#pons in unpre!e<ente< Au#ntit3F le#<in2 to #n #r4s
r#!e or w#r. :oli!3 investi2#tion into t*e e''e!ts o' 4ole!ul#r n#note!*nolo23 s*oul< !onsi<er <eli$er#te #$use #s # pri4#r3 !on!ernF #n< run#w#3 repli!#tion #s # 4ore <ist#nt
issue.L
he scientist who *irst pro6u-gate. the Egre0 goo5 theor0 has since re>ecte. 4 se-* rep-icating nano1ots are on-0
possi1-e in Michae- 7hriton5s no2e-s
=a-augher/ 2008 B.iEF 7ort*western Universit3F J =re3 =oo #n< >t*er 5!#r3 5toriesL Iune (F
*ttp8//www.<is!overn#no.nort*western.e<u/#''e!t/so!iet#li4p#!t/s!#r3storiesC
"n 1(&6F r. Eri! rexler pu$lis*e< *is $oo0 entitle< Engines of #reation. ,*e $oo0 in!lu<e< rexler9s 'e#rs #$out t*e 'uture o' n#note!*nolo23 #n< vivi<l3 <es!ri$e< t*e possi$ilit3 o' 4ini#ture <evi!es
!#lle< Jn#no$otsFL !#p#$le o' repro<u!in2 t*e4selves #n< eventu#ll3 t#0in2 over t*e pl#net. )e l#$ele< t*e resultin2 4ess J2re3 2ooL #n< t*e noti!e 2ener#te< # 2re#t <e#l
o' 'e#r Bnot to 4ention su$Me!t 4#tter 'or # nu4$er o' s!ien!e 'i!tion writersC. 5in!e t*enF rese#r!*ers *#ve le#rne< enou2* #$out n#no14#nu'#!turin2 to
<e!l#re t*e 2re3 2oo s!en#rio Jo$solete.L "n # 2//4 interviewF Eri! rexler st#te<F JUp<#te< 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2
!on!eptsi4#0e 'e#rs o' #!!i<ent#l run#w#3 repli!#tion 1 loosel3 $#se< on 43 1(&6 2re3 2oo s!en#rio 1 Auite o$solete . 6*ris
:*oenix [o' t*e 6enter 'or ;esponsi$le 7#note!*nolo23] #n< " wrote t*e p#per to !ounter t*e 4#in t*re#t pose< $3 2re3 2ooF w*i!* is t*#t #ll t*e
*3pe <iverts #ttention 'ro4 4ore i4port#nt issues 1 rese#r!* <ire!tionsF <evelop4ent p#t*sF #n< t*e role o' #<v#n!e< n#note!*nolo2ies in 4e<i!ineF t*e environ4entF t*e
e!ono43F #n< in str#te2i! !o4petition.L A$out t*e ti4e t*#t t*e Jn#no$otsL stor3 w#s !oolin2 o''F ?i!*#el 6ri!*ton9s s!ien!e 'i!tion t*riller Pre" w#s rele#se< in $oo0stores. "n 6ri!*tonPs $oo0F 4ini#ture
<evi!es !#lle< Jn#no1ro$otsL !#p#$le o' repro<u!in2 t*e4selvesF eventu#ll3 t#0e over t*e worl<. 5oun< '#4ili#rK Alt*ou2* t*e stor3 is #$out #s possi$le #s t*e stor3 lines 'ro4 6ri!*ton9s ot*er wor0s li0e
Jurassic ParF t*ere #re Must enou2* s!ienti'i! '#!ts sprin0le< into t*e stor3 to 4#0e it soun< so4ew*#t pl#usi$le. W*ile t*ere #re still 4#n3 un0nowns surroun<in2 n#note!*nolo23F it9s i4port#nt
to sep#r#te t*e s!ien!e '#!t 'ro4 t*e s!ien!e 'i!tion. ,*e 4#Morit3 o' n#note!*nolo23 rese#r!* 'o!uses on issues ot*er t*#n n#no$otsF #n< spe!i'i!#ll3 t*e <esi2n o' new
4#teri#ls wit* properties t*#t <erive 'ro4 t*eir siEe #n< !o4positesF #n< w*i!* !#n $e use< to 4#0e # positive i4p#!t in 'iel<s r#n2in2 'ro4 4e<i!ine to ener23 !onversion #n< stor#2e.
8;
2009
A2H C"AD COO 4 I5S IMPOSSIA%E
!o Cra0 Coo 4 sa*eguar.s so-2e an. waste heat 6eans e+pansion wou-. 1e s-ow an. we cou-. .e2e-op counter,
6easures
We$$ in V/2
B5tep*enF :*3si!ist #t >pen Universit3 o' .on<onF J"' t*e Universe "s ,ee4in2 wit* Aliens... W*ere "s Ever3$o<3K Fi't3
5olutions to Fer4iPs :#r#<ox #n< t*e :ro$le4 o' Extr#terrestri#l .i'eLF p. 12%C
,*e 3oun2 $o3 in Woo<3 AllenPs Annie )#ll $e!o4es <epresse< #t t*e t*ou2*t t*#t t*e Universe is 2oin2 to <ieF sin!e t*#t
will $e t*e en< o' ever31t*in2. " #4 $e!o4in2 <epresse< writin2 t*is se!tionF so to !*eer up 43sel' T #n< #n3 3oun2
Woo<3s t*#t 4i2*t $e re#<in2 T " t*in0 we *#ve to #s0 w*et*er t*e 2r#3 2oo pro$le4 is even re4otel3 li0el3 to #rise. As
Asi4ov w#s 'on< o' pointin2 outF w*en 4#n invente< t*e swor< *e #lso in1vente< t*e *#n< 2u#r< so t*#t onePs 'in2ers <i<
not slit*er <own t*e $l#<e w*en one t*rust #t #n opponent. ,*e en2ineers w*o <evelop n#note!*nolo23 #re !ert#in to
<evelop sop*isti!#te< s#'e2u#r<s. Even i' sel'1repli!#tin2 n#no$ots were to es!#pe or i' t*e3 were rele#se< 'or 4#li!ious
re#sonsF t*en steps !oul< $e t#0en to <estro3 t*e4 $e'ore !#t#strop*e resulte<. A popul#tion o' n#no$ots in!re#sin2 its 4#ss
exponenti#ll3 #t t*e expense o' t*e $iosp*ere woul< i44e<i#tel3 $e <ete!te< $3 t*e w#ste *e#t it 2ener#te<. e'ense
4e#sures !oul< $e <eplo3e< #t on!e. A 4ore re#listi! s!en#rioF in w*i!* # popul#tion o' n#no$ots in!re#se< its 4#ss
slowl3F so t*e w#ste *e#t t*e3 2ener#te< w#s not i44e<i#tel3 <ete!t#$leF woul< t#0e 3e#rs to !onvert E#rt*Ps $io4#ss into
n#no4#ss. ,*#t woul< provi<e plent3 o' ti4e to 4ount #n e''e!tive <e'ense. ,*e 2r#3 2oo pro$le4 4i2*t not $e su!* #
<i''i!ult pro$le4 to over!o4e8 it is si4pl3 one 4ore ris0 t*#t #n #<v#n!e< te!*nolo2i!#l spe!ies will *#ve to live wit*.
SE%$,"EP%I7AI!C !A!OAOS A!3 C"ED COO A"E IMPOSSIA%E
54#lle3 in 2//1
[;i!*#r< =ene #n< 7or4#n )#!0er4#n :ro'essor o' :*3si!s #n< 6*e4istr3 S ;i!e Universit3F re!eive< t*e 1((6 7o$el
:riEe in 6*e4istr3 'or t*e <is!over3 o' 'ullerenes 5epte4$erF J7#no'#ll#!ies8 o' 6*e4istr3F .oveF #n< 7#no$otsFL
5!ienti'i! A4eri!#nF -ol. 2&5 j3]
]@ut *ow re#listi! is t*is notion o' # sel'1repli!#tin2 n#no$otK .etPs t*in0 #$out it. Ato4s #re tin3 #n< 4ove in # <e'ine<
#n< !ir!u4s!ri$e< w#311# !*e4ist woul< s#3 t*#t t*e3 4ove so #s to 4ini4iEe t*e 'ree ener23 o' t*eir lo!#l surroun<in2s.
,*e ele!troni! O2lueO t*#t sti!0s t*e4 to one #not*er is not lo!#l to e#!* $on< $ut r#t*er is sensitive to t*e ex#!t position
#n< i<entit3 o' #ll t*e #to4s in t*e ne#r vi!init3. 5o w*en t*e n#no4#nipul#tor #r4 o' our n#no$ot pi!0s up #n #to4 #n<
2oes to insert it in t*e <esire< pl#!eF it *#s # 'un<#4ent#l pro$le4. "t #lso *#s to so4e*ow !ontrol not onl3 t*is new #to4
$ut #ll t*e existin2 #to4s in t*e re2ion. 7o pro$le4F 3ou s#38 our n#no$ot will *#ve #n #<<ition#l 4#nipul#tor #r4 'or e#!*
one o' t*ese #to4s. ,*en it woul< *#ve !o4plete !ontrol o' #ll t*e 2oin2s1on t*#t o!!ur #t t*e re#!tion site. @ut re4e4$erF
t*is re2ion w*ere t*e !*e4istr3 is to $e !ontrolle< $3 t*e n#no$ot is ver3F ver3 s4#ll11#$out one n#no4eter on # si<e. ,*#t
!onstr#int le#<s to #t le#st two $#si! <i''i!ulties. " !#ll one t*e '#t 'in2ers pro$le4 #n< t*e ot*er t*e sti!03 'in2ers pro$le4.
@e!#use t*e 'in2ers o' # 4#nipul#tor #r4 4ust t*e4selves $e 4#<e out o' #to4sF t*e3 *#ve # !ert#in irre<u!i$le siEe. ,*ere
Must isnPt enou2* roo4 in t*e n#no4eter1siEe re#!tion re2ion to #!!o4o<#te #ll t*e 'in2ers o' #ll t*e 4#nipul#tors ne!ess#r3
to *#ve !o4plete !ontrol o' t*e !*e4istr3. "n # '#4ous 1(5( t#l0 t*#t *#s inspire< n#note!*nolo2ists ever3w*ereF 7o$el
p*3si!ist ;i!*#r< Fe3n4#n 4e4or#$l3 note<F O,*erePs plent3 o' roo4 #t t*e $otto4.O @ut t*erePs not t*#t 4u!* roo4.
?#nipul#tor 'in2ers on t*e *3pot*eti!#l sel'1repli!#tin2 n#no$ot #re not onl3 too '#tN t*e3 #re #lso too sti!038 t*e #to4s o'
t*e 4#nipul#tor *#n<s will #<*ere to t*e #to4 t*#t is $ein2 4ove<. 5o it will o'ten $e i4possi$le to rele#se t*is 4inus!ule
$uil<in2 $lo!0 in pre!isel3 t*e ri2*t spot. @ot* t*ese pro$le4s #re 'un<#4ent#lF #n< neit*er !#n $e #voi<e<. 5el'repli!#tin2F
4e!*#ni!#l n#no$ots #re si4pl3 not possi$le in our worl<. ,o put ever3 #to4 in its pl#!e11t*e vision #rti!ul#te< $3 so4e
n#note!*nolo2ists1woul< reAuire 4#2i! 'in2ers. 5u!* # n#no$ot will never $e!o4e 4ore t*#n # 'uturistPs <#3<re#4. k
8:
2009
SE%$,"EP%I7AI!C !A!OAOS A"E A S7IE!$II$7 IMPOSSIAI%IDT7O!"A"D BOUCBS
IC!O"E AASI7 7BEMIS"D A!3 WOU%3 "ESUI"E A %I@I!C E!UDME
S6a--e0 in 0& [;i!01 Universit3 :ro'essorF =ene #n< 7or4#n )#!0er4#n :ro'essor o' 6*e4istr3 #n< :ro'essor o' :*3si!s
_ Astrono43F 1((6 7o$el :riEe Winner 6*e4istr3 #n< En2ineerin2 7ewsF J7#note!*nolo238 rexler #n< 54#lle3
?#0e t*e 6#se 'or #n< A2#inst J?ole!ul#r Asse4$lers9LF e!e4$er 1F -olu4e &1F 7u4$er 4&F p. 3%142]
]Gou still <o not #ppe#r to un<erst#n< t*e i4p#!t o' 43 s*ort pie!e in 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#n. ?u!* li0e 3ou !#nPt 4#0e # $o3
#n< # 2irl '#ll in love wit* e#!* ot*er si4pl3 $3 pus*in2 t*e4 to2et*erF 3ou !#nnot 4#0e pre!ise !*e4istr3 o!!ur #s <esire<
$etween two 4ole!ul#r o$Me!ts wit* si4ple 4e!*#ni!#l 4otion #lon2 # 'ew <e2rees o' 'ree<o4 in t*e #sse4$ler1'ixe<
'r#4e o' re'eren!e. 6*e4istr3F li0e loveF is 4ore su$tle t*#n t*#t. Gou nee< to 2ui<e t*e re#!t#nts <own # p#rti!ul#r re#!tion !oor<in#teF #n< t*is !oor<in#te tre#<s t*rou2* # 4#n31<i4ension#l
*3persp#!e. " #2ree 3ou will 2et # re#!tion w*en # ro$ot #r4 pus*es t*e 4ole!ules to2et*erF $ut 4ost o' t*e ti4e it wonPt $e t*e
re#!tion 3ou w#nt. Gou #r2ue t*#t Oi' p#rti!ul#r !on<itions will 3iel< t*e wron2 pro<u!tF one 4ust eit*er !*oose <i''erent !on<itions B<i''erent positionsF re#!t#ntsF #<M#!ent 2roupsC or !*oose
#not*er s3nt*eti! t#r2et.O @ut in #ll o' 3our writin2sF " *#ve never seen # !onvin!in2 #r2u4ent t*#t t*is list o' !on<itions #n< s3nt*eti! t#r2ets t*#t will #!tu#ll3 wor0 reli#$l3 wit* 4e!*#nos3nt*esis !#n $e
#n3t*in2 $ut # ver3F ver3 s*ort list. 6*e4istr3 o' t*e !o4plexit3F ri!*nessF #n< pre!ision nee<e< to !o4e #n3w*ere !lose to 4#0in2 # 4ole!ul#r #sse4$ler11let #lone # sel'1repli!#tin2
#sse4$ler11!#nnot $e <one si4pl3 $3 4us*in2 two 4ole!ul#r o$Me!ts to2et*er. Gou nee< 4ore !ontrol. ,*ere #re too 4#n3
#to4s involve< to *#n<le in su!* # !lu4s3 w#3. ,o !ontrol t*ese #to4s 3ou nee< so4e sort o' 4ole!ul#r !*#perone t*#t !#n
#lso serve #s # !#t#l3st. Gou nee< # '#irl3 l#r2e 2roup o' ot*er #to4s #rr#n2e< in # !o4plexF #rti!ul#te<F t*ree1<i4ension#l
w#3 to #!tiv#te t*e su$str#te #n< $rin2 in t*e re#!t#ntF #n< 4#ss#2e t*e two until t*e3 re#!t in Must t*e <esire< w#3. Gou
nee< so4et*in2 ver3 4u!* li0e #n enE34e. "n 3our open letter to 4e 3ou wroteF O.i0e enE34es #n< ri$oso4esF propose< #sse4$lers neit*er *#ve nor nee< t*ese P54#lle3
'in2ers.PO " t*ou2*t 'or # w*ile t*#t 3ou re#ll3 <i< 2et itF #n< 3ou re#liEe< t*#t on t*e en< o' 3our ro$oti! #sse4$ler #r4 3ou nee< #n enE34eli0e tool. ,*#t is w*3 " le< 3ou in 43 repl3 into # roo4 to t#l0
#$out re#l !*e4istr3 wit* re#l enE34esF tr3in2 to 2et 3ou to re#liEe t*e li4it#tions o' t*is #ppro#!*. An3 su!* s3ste4 will nee< # liAui< 4e<iu4. For t*e enE34es we 0now #$outF t*#t liAui< will *#ve to $e
w#terF #n< t*e t3pes o' t*in2s t*#t !#n $e s3nt*esiEe< wit* w#ter #roun< !#nnot $e 4u!* $ro#<er t*#n t*e 4e#t #n< $one o' $iolo23. @utF noF 3ou <onPt 2et it. Gou #re still in # preten<
worl< w*ere #to4s 2o w*ere 3ou w#nt $e!#use 3our !o4puter pro2r#4 <ire!ts t*e4 to 2o t*ere. Gou #ssu4e t*ere is # w#3
# ro$oti! 4#nipul#tor #r4 !#n <o t*#t in # v#!uu4F #n< so4e*ow we will wor0 out # w#3 to *#ve t*is w*ole t*in2 #!tu#ll3
$e #$le to 4#0e #not*er !op3 o' itsel'. " *#ve 2iven 3ou re#sons w*3 su!* #n #sse4$ler !#nnot $e $uiltF #n< will not
oper#teF usin2 t*e prin!iples 3ou su22est. " !onsi<er t*#t 3our '#ilure to provi<e # wor0in2 str#te23 in<i!#tes t*#t 3ou
i4pli!itl3 !on!ur11even #s 3ou expli!itl3 <en311t*#t t*e i<e# !#nnot wor0. A 'ew wee0s #2o " 2#ve # t#l0 on n#note!*nolo23 #n< ener23 title< O@e #
5!ientistF 5#ve t*e Worl<O to #$out %// 4i<<le #n< *i2* s!*ool stu<ents in t*e 5prin2 @r#n!* "5F # l#r2e pu$li! s!*ool s3ste4 *ere in t*e )ouston #re#. .e#<in2 up to 43 visitF t*e stu<ents were #s0e< to
write #n ess#3 on OW*3 " A4 # 7#no2ee0.O )un<re<s respon<e<F #n< " *#< t*e privile2e o' re#<in2 t*e top 3/ ess#3sF pi!0in2 43 '#vorite 'ive. >' t*e ess#3s " re#<F ne#rl3 *#l' #ssu4e< t*#t sel'1repli!#tin2
n#no$ots were possi$leF #n< 4ost were <eepl3 worrie< #$out w*#t woul< *#ppen in t*eir 'uture #s t*ese n#no$ots spre#< #roun< t*e worl<. " <i< w*#t " !oul< to #ll#3 t*eir 'e#rsF $ut t*ere is no Auestion t*#t
4#n3 o' t*ese 3oun2sters *#ve $een tol< # $e<ti4e stor3 t*#t is <eepl3 trou$lin2. Gou #n< people #roun< 3ou *#ve s!#re< our !*il<ren. " <onPt expe!t 3ou to stopF $ut " *ope ot*ers in t*e !*e4i!#l
!o44unit3 will Moin wit* 4e in turnin2 on t*e li2*tF #n< s*owin2 our !*il<ren t*#tF w*ile our 'uture in t*e re#l worl< will $e !*#llen2in2 #n< t*ere #re re#l ris0sF t*ere will $e no su!*
4onster #s t*e sel'1repli!#tin2 4e!*#ni!#l n#no$ot o' 3our <re#4s.k
Se-*,"ep-icating nano,1ots are i6possi1-e
S6a--e0 in 0&[;i!01 Universit3 :ro'essorF =ene #n< 7or4#n )#!0er4#n :ro'essor o' 6*e4istr3 #n< :ro'essor o' :*3si!s
_ Astrono43F 1((6 7o$el :riEe Winner 6*e4istr3 #n< En2ineerin2 7ewsF J7#note!*nolo238 rexler #n< 54#lle3
?#0e t*e 6#se 'or #n< A2#inst J?ole!ul#r Asse4$lers9LF e!e4$er 1F -olu4e &1F 7u4$er 4&F p. 3%142]
]@ut w*ere <oes t*e enE34e or ri$oso4e entit3 !o4e 'ro4 in 3our vision o' # sel'1repli!#tin2 n#no$otK "s t*ere # livin2
!ell so4ew*ere insi<e t*e n#no$ot t*#t !*urns t*ese outK ,*ere t*en 4ust $e liAui< w#ter present so4ew*ere insi<eF #n< #ll
t*e nutrients ne!ess#r3 'or li'e. An< now t*#t wePre t*in0in2 #$out itF *ow is it t*#t t*e n#no$ot pi!0s Must t*e enE34e
4ole!ule it nee<s out o' t*is !ellF #n< *ow <oes it 0now Must *ow to *ol< it #n< 4#0e sure it Moins wit* t*e lo!#l re2ion
w*ere t*e #sse4$l3 is $ein2 <oneF in Must t*e ri2*t '#s*ionK )ow <oes t*e n#no$ot 0now w*en t*e enE34e is <#4#2e< #n<
nee<s to $e repl#!e<K )ow <oes t*e n#no$ot <o error <ete!tion #n< error !orre!tionK An< w*#t 0in< o' !*e4istr3 !#n it <oK EnE34es #n< ri$oso4es
!#n onl3 wor0 in w#terF #n< t*ere'ore !#nnot $uil< #n3t*in2 t*#t is !*e4i!#ll3 unst#$le in w#ter. @iolo23 is won<erous in t*e v#st <iversit3 o' w*#t it !#n $uil<F $ut it !#nPt 4#0e # !r3st#l o' sili!onF or steelF
or !opperF or #lu4inu4F or tit#niu4F or virtu#ll3 #n3 o' t*e 0e3 4#teri#ls on w*i!* 4o<ern te!*nolo23 is $uilt. Wit*out su!* 4#teri#lsF *ow is t*is sel'1repli!#tin2
n#no$ot ever 2oin2 to 4#0e # r#<ioF or # l#serF or #n ultr#'#st 4e4or3F or virtu#ll3 #n3 ot*er 0e3 !o4ponent o' 4o<ern
te!*nolo2i!#l so!iet3 t*#t isnPt 4#<e o' ro!0F woo<F 'les*F #n< $one K " !#n onl3 2uess t*#t 3ou i4#2ine it is possi$le to 4#0e # 4ole!ul#r entit3 t*#t *#s t*e
super$F sele!tive !*e4i!#l1!onstru!tion #$ilit3 o' #n enE34e wit*out t*e ne!essit3 o' liAui< w#ter. "' soF it woul< $e *elp'ul to #ll o' us w*o t#0e t*e n#no$ot #sse4$ler i<e# o' OEn2ines o' 6re#tionO
seriousl3 i' 3ou woul< tell us 4ore #$out t*is non#Aueous enE34eli0e !*e4istr3. W*#t liAui< 4e<iu4 will 3ou useK )ow #re 3ou 2oin2 to repl#!e t*e loss o' t*e *3<rop*o$i!/*3<rop*ili!F ion1solv#tin2F
*3<ro2en1$on<in2 2enius o' w#ter in or!*estr#tin2 pre!ise t*ree1<i4ension#l stru!tures #n< 4e4$r#nesK >r <o 3ou re#ll3 t*in0 it is possi$le to <o enE34eli0e !*e4istr3 o' #r$itr#r3 !o4plexit3 wit* onl3
<r3 sur'#!es #n< # v#!uu4K
,*e !entr#l pro$le4 " see wit* t*e n#no$ot sel'1#sse4$ler t*en is pri4#ril3 !*e4istr3. "' t*e n#no$ot is restri!te< to $e #
w#ter1$#se< li'e1'or4F sin!e t*is is t*e onl3 w#3 its 4ole!ul#r #sse4$l3 tools will wor0F t*en t*ere is # lon2 list o'
vulner#$ilities #n< li4it#tions to w*#t it !#n <o. "' it is # non1w#ter1$#se< li'e1'or4F t*en t*ere is # v#st #re# o' !*e4istr3
t*#t *#s elu<e< us 'or !enturies.k
87
2009
SE%$,"EP%I7AI!C !A!OAOS A"E IMPOSSIA%ET7BEMIS"D P"O@ES
7:; in V/4
[J5!ientists #re *opin2 n#note!*nolo23 will le#< to new rese#r!*LF I#nu#r3 1(F ./7]
]?r. ;"6)A; 5?A..EG B6*e4istC8 W*#t t*e '#nt#s3 is in n#no$ots is 3ou !#n r#<io on <own to t*e4 #n< tell t*e4 to
$uil< 3oursel' # sp#!es*ipF $ut it !#nPt wor0. "t !#nPt <o t*e !*e4istr3. +E5,E7@AU?8 "nevit#$l3F *e s#3sF 3ouP< en< up
reinventin2 so4et*in2 t*#t wor0s li0e # livin2 !ellF $ut t*#tPs '#r 4ore !o4pli!#te< t*#n #n3t*in2 *u4#ns *#ve ever 4#<eF
#n< !ells #re li4ite< in w*#t t*e3 !#n <o. ?r. 5?A..EG8 "n '#!tF t*e !*e4istr3 t*#tPs #v#il#$le in livin2 !ells is #!tu#ll3
prett3 restri!te<F #n< itPs restri!te< $e!#use t*erePs w#ter #roun<. An< so 3ou !#nPt 4#0e ever3t*in2 $iolo2i!#ll3. Gou !#nPt
4#0e # !opper wire. Gou !#nPt 4#0e steel. Gou !#nPt 4#0e !r3st#lline sili!on. "n '#!tF t*e list o' t*in2s 3ou !#nPt 4#0e prett3
4u!* re#<s li0e t*e list o' 4o<ern te!*nolo23. +E5,E7@AU?8 54#lle3 wrote re!entl3 to # !olle#2ue o' ?er0lePsF AuoteF
O,*ere will $e no su!* 4onster #s t*e sel'1repli!#tin2 4e!*#ni!#l n#no$ot o' 3our <re#4s.O Even soF t*e n#note!*nolo23
!o44unit3 is worrie< t*#t t*is vision will s!#re people. :#rtl3 #s # pre1e4ptive stri0eF it w#s or2#niEe< <is!ussions on n#no
et*i!s.k
C"ED COO IS !O!SE!SE 4 %I$E ISE%$ P"O@ES
Ele!troni!s 7ews in V/6
B5teven +eepin2F J;ese#r!*ers e$#te 7#no FutureLF Fe$ru#r3F ./7C
Du#ntu4 n#nos!ien!e rese#r!*ers #re *#vin2 to re'ute n#note!*nolo23Ps ne2#tive O2re3 2ooO pu$li!it3 $e'ore turnin2 to t*e
serious $usiness o' pro2ress tow#r<s # pr#!ti!#l Au#ntu4 !o4puter. At #n intern#tion#l !on'eren!e *el< in 7oos#F Dl<. #t
t*e en< o' I#nu#r3F s!ientists were #t p#ins to <ispel t*e 43t*s w*ile 2ettin2 to 2rips wit* 4ore serious issues su!* #s w*o
will !ontrol t*e te!*nolo23F #n< *ow to prote!t pu$li!l31'un<e< Austr#li#n intelle!tu#l propert3 B":C. =re3 2oo is #
*3pot*eti!#l s!en#rio in w*i!* sel'1repli!#tin2 n#no$ots <evour ever3t*in2 elseF le#vin2 Must <etritus $e*in<. O"tPs !o4plete
#n< utter nonsenseFO s#3s :ro'essor =er#r< ?il$urnF !onvener o' t*e 5ir ?#r0 >lip*#nt 6on'eren!e on Frontiers o'
Du#ntu4 7#nos!ien!e. O"tPs not s!ien!e. "tPs not even re4otel3 'e#si$le.O )e pointe< out t*#t li'e itsel' *#s $een repli!#tin2
un!ontrolle< 'or t*e p#st 213 $illion 3e#rsF wit*out #n3 in<ivi<u#l li'e'or4 !onsu4in2 #ll ot*ers.
C"ED COO IS IMPOSSIA%ET3"E?%E" BAS 7O!7E3E3
7ew 5!ientist in 9/4
BJU1turn on 2ooLF Iune 12F ./7C
=;EG 2oo is no 4ore. Eri! rexlerF t*e 'uturist w*o <re#4e< up t*e vision o' sel'1repli!#tin2 n#no4#!*ines spre#<in2
#!ross t*e pl#net *#s pu$li!l3 repu<i#te< *is i<e#. "n *is 1(&6 $oo0 En2ines o' 6re#tionF rexler su22ests t*#t 4i!ros!opi! 4#!*ines 4i2*t one <#3 $e #$le to 4#nipul#te
in<ivi<u#l 4ole!ules to $uil< #n3 <esire< stru!ture. "' su!* # 4#!*ine !ont#ine< its own $lueprint #n< !oul< s!#ven2e r#w 4#teri#lsF it !oul< t#0e over t*e pl#net in # !*#in re#!tion o' sel'1repli!#tionF *e
w#rne<. O,*e sel'1repli!#tin2 4#!*ine i<e# *#s *#< # pro'oun< e''e!t on n#note!*nolo23F or r#t*er its per!eption 1 4ostl3 'or t*e $#<FO s#3s ?#r0 Well#n<F e<itor1in1!*ie' o' t*e Mourn#l 7#note!*nolo23.
7owF in #n #rti!le in t*e Iune issue o' 7#note!*nolo23F rexler s#3s t*#t n#no'#!tories will $e <es0top1siEe< 4#!*ines t*#t
!#n 4#nipul#te l#r2e nu4$ers o' 4ole!ules. Alt*ou2* su!* # '#!tor3 !oul< $e <ire!te< to $uil< # !op3 o' itsel'F s#3s
rexlerF it woul< not $e #$le to <o so on its own. An< neit*er woul< it $e #$le to spre#< #roun< t*e pl#netF )oll3woo<
st3leF e#tin2 ever3t*in2 its p#t*.
!o one wi-- 1e a1-e to 1ui-. se-*,rep-icating nano1ots
Freit#s in 2///
B;o$ertF ;ese#r!* 5!ientistF 5o4e .i4its to =lo$#l E!op*#23 $3 @iovorous 7#norepli!#torsF wit* :u$li! :oli!3
;e!o44en<#tionsF *ttp8//www.'oresi2*t.or2/n#no/E!op*#23.*t4lC
)oweverF $iovorous n#noro$ots !#p#$le o' !o4pre*ensive e!op*#23 will not $e e#s3 to $uil< #n< t*eir <esi2n will reAuire
exAuisite #ttention to nu4erous !o4plex spe!i'i!#tions #n< oper#tion#l !*#llen2es. 5u!* $iovores !#n e4er2e onl3 #'ter #
len2t*3 perio< o' purpose'ul 'o!use< e''ortF or #s # result o' <eli$er#te experi4ents #i4e< #t !re#tin2 2ener#l1purpose
#rti'i!i#l li'eF per*#ps $3 e4plo3in2 2eneti! #l2orit*4sF #n< #re *i2*l3 unli0el3 to #rise solel3 $3 #!!i<ent.
89
2009
BE SE%$,"EP%I7AI!C !A!OAOS BEO"D WOU%3!5 WO"= AS 3"E?%E" BA3 7%AIME3
Freit#s in 2///
]3./ Exponenti#l ;epli!#tion ;#te "2norin2 t*er4#l pollution !onsi<er#tions 'or t*e 4o4ent B5e!tion 6./CF in t*eor3 #n opti4#ll3 <esi2ne< #n<
2eo2r#p*i!#ll3 uni'or4l3 <istri$ute< popul#tion o' repli$ots !oul< in!re#se t*e 4#ss o' t*eir own popul#tion #t t*e expense
o' t*e $iosp*ereF vi# sel'1repli!#tionF #!!or<in2 to t*e si4ple rel#tion [1(]8 ?repl U ?initeBt/tC B1C 'or 4#xi4u4
exponenti#l 2rowt*F w*ere t is el#pse< ti4e Bse!CF t is 2ener#tion !3!le or repli!#tion ti4e Bse!CF ?init B02C is initi#l
n#noro$ot 4#ss #t ti4e t U /F #n< ?repl B02C is t*e repli!#tor 4#ss #t ti4e tF w*ere ?repl /.23 ?$io. "n or<er to #!*ieve
t*is r#teF e#!* !o4plete< !o4ponent o' t*e unit !urrentl3 $ein2 $uilt 4ust $e put to 'ull pro<u!tive use i44e<i#tel3F
inste#< o' w#itin2 'or t*e 'in#l !o4pletion o' t*e unit. ,*ere #re # 'ew <esi2n !on'i2ur#tions w*ere so4et*in2 !lose to t*is
!#n $e #!*ieve< e''i!ientl3F $ut #s # pr#!ti!#l 4#tter #n< to ret#in si4pli!it3 it will usu#ll3 $e pre'er#$le to #w#it t*e
!o4pletion o' # unit $e'ore pressin2 it into repli!#tive servi!eF # 4o<e o' oper#tion !#lle< <is!rete repli!#tionF in w*i!* !#se
t*e exponenti#l ter4 in EAn. 1 s*oul< $e repl#!e< wit* 2Bt/t<is!reteC 11 w*i!*F #ll else eAu#lF will $e # sli2*tl3 slower
'un!tion. Bis!rete repli!#tion !#n $e '#ster t*#n pure exponenti#l repli!#tion onl3 i' t<is!rete ] t lnB2C.C ;epli!#tin2
popul#tions li4ite< to #!tivit3 onl3 #t t*e peri4eter o' t*e exp#nsion w#veF or in re2ions o' *i2* repli$ot nu4$er <ensit3F
4#3 #!*ieve onl3 pol3no4i#l 2rowt* r#tes [1(]F w*i!* #re even slower. "n or<er to esti4#te t U t!onvF t*e ti4e reAuire< 'or tot#l !onversion o' t*e $iosp*ere
to repli$ots plus w#ste slu<2eF we 4ust 'irst esti4#te t. rexler [4] *#s !#l!ul#te< t*#t # re#<il31envisione< 4ultist#2e 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2 s3ste4 !oul< 4#nu'#!ture its own 4#ss in t l 1/// se!on<s.
)oweverF n#norepli!#tors nee< not $e !#p#$le o' 2ener#l purpose 4#nu'#!turin2F $ut 4#3 $e opti4iEe< solel3 'or repli!#tion o' t*eir own su$st#n!e. A 4ole!ul#r 4#nipul#tor <esi2ne< $3 rexler [4] t*#t is
suit#$le 'or 4ole!ul#r #sse4$l3 pi!01#n<1pl#!e oper#tions !onsists o' 4 4illion #to4s ex!lu<in2 support $#seF powerF !ontrolF #n< ot*er ne!ess#r3 stru!turesF #n< is <esi2ne< to per'or4 l1/6 #to4i!1
pre!ision 4ole!ul#r pi!01#n<1pl#!e oper#tions per se!on<F #ssu4in2 #r41tip 4ove4ent #t 1 !4/se! over 4ini4#l 1/1n4 #r!s e#!* !3!le. Freit#s [6] esti4#tes t*#t # $#si! #utono4ous
n#no#sse4$ler usin2 two rexler 4#nipul#tor #r4s #n< in!orpor#tin2 # si4ple on$o#r< n#no!o4puter 4i2*t reAuire #t
le#st l%/ 4illion #to4s Bl1 2i2#<#ltonCF su22estin2 # 4ini4u4 repli!#tion ti4e t l 1// se!on<s. B,*e s4#llest
in<epen<entl3 vi#$le !ells #re t*ou2*t to *#ve # 4ole!ul#r wei2*t o' or<er l1 2i2#<#ltonF e.2.F 4ini4u4 <i#4eter l14/
n4[%2F %3].C "t is <i''i!ult to i4#2ine *ow #n e!op*#2i! repli!#tor !#p#$le o' su!!ess'ull3 #ssi4il#tin2 n#tur#l $io4#tter o'
#ll existin2 v#rieties !oul< $e 4u!* si4pler t*#n t*is. )oweverF it is possi$le t*#t 4ole!ul#r 4#nipul#tors 4i2*t $e slewe< #t spee<s up to l1// !4/se!F per*#ps 2ivin2 t l
1 se!F $ut #t t*e !ost o' steepl3 risin2 ener23 <issip#tion [4] w*i!* 2re#tl3 in!re#ses w#ste *e#t pro<u!tion #n< s3ste4 oper#tin2 te4per#turesF #n< re<u!es n#norepli!#tor reli#$ilit3 <ue to l#r2er t*er4#ll31
ex!ite< <ispl#!e4entsF t*er4#l <#4#2e r#tesF #n< p*onon14e<i#te< <r#2 [4]. For ex#4pleF # 1/1n4 'or!e sensor 4e#surin2 1/ p7 #t #n oper#tin2 te4per#ture o' 3//m+ *#s # /.2^ pro$#$ilit3 o' erroneous
4e#sure4entN t*is pro$#$ilit3 Mu4ps to 3^ #t 5//m+ #n< 16^ #t 1///m+ [4]. )en!eF t l 1 se! #ppe#rs to $e # r#t*er #22ressive #n< pro$#$l3 un#!*iev#$le lower li4it. k

!A!OAOS WOU%3!5 AE AA%E O $I!3 E!OUCB E!E"CD O 7"EAE C"ED COO
Freit#s in 2///
]5./ Ener23 #n< ?#teri#ls ;eAuire4ents .i4it#tions
,*e nee< 'or ener23 is #not*er 'un<#4ent#l li4it on t*e spee< #t w*i!* $iosp*eri! !onversion !#n t#0e pl#!e. urin2
e!op*#23F t*e ri!*est sour!e o' ener23 is li0el3 to $e !*e4i!#l ener23 <erive< 'ro4 t*e #ssi4il#tion o' $io4ole!ules 'oun<
in t*e $iosp*ere. For ex#4pleF # $io4#ss <ensit3 o' l1/ 02/42 on l#n< [2/F 21] t3pi!#ll3 *#vin2 l1/% I/02 o' re!over#$le
!*e4i!#l ener23 [6] i4plies #n #v#il#$le ener23 <ensit3 o' l1/& I/42 #t t*e terrestri#l sur'#!e. @3 !o4p#risonF visi$le1
spe!tru4 sunli2*t #t noon on # !lou<less <#3 B"sol#r l 1//14// W/42 [6]C 4#3 provi<e #t 4ost l1/% I/42 over t*e !ourse
o' #n &1*our wor0 <#3. >t*er sour!es o' s!#ven2#$le ener23 su!* #s r#<ionu!li<es #re 4u!* s!#r!er B5e!tion 2./C. 7ote t*#t
t*e !o4plete !o4$ustion in #ir o' # 4#ss o' 2lu!ose eAu#l to ?$io woul< !onsu4e l5.3 n1/15 02 >2F onl3 /.5^ o' t*e
l1.1 n1/1& 02 o' ox32en !ont#ine< wit*in E#rt*Ps l21^ >2 #t4osp*ere. )en!e ox32en1<epen<ent e!op*#23 will not $e
ox32en1li4ite<. "nterestin2l3F <i#4on< *#s t*e *i2*est 0nown oxi<#tive !*e4i!#l stor#2e <ensit3 $e!#use it *#s t*e *i2*est
#to4 nu4$er B#n< $on<C <ensit3 per unit volu4e. >r2#ni! 4#teri#ls store less ener23 per unit volu4eF 'ro4 l3 ti4es less
t*#n <i#4on< 'or !*olesterolF to l5 ti4es less 'or ve2et#$le proteinF to l1/112 ti4es less 'or #4ino #!i<s #n< woo< [6].
5in!e repli$ots 4ust $uil< ener231ri!* pro<u!t stru!tures Be.2. <i#4on<oi<C $3 !onsu4in2 rel#tivel3 ener231poor 'ee<sto!0
stru!tures Be.2.F $io4#ssCF it 4#3 not $e possi$le 'or $iosp*ere !onversion to pro!ee< entirel3 to !o4pletion Be.2.F #ll !#r$on
#to4s in!orpor#te< into n#noro$otsC usin2 !*e4i!#l ener23 #loneF even t#0in2 into #!!ount t*e possi$le ener23 v#lue o' t*e
<e!#r$oni'ie< slu<2e $3pro<u!tF t*ou2* su!* unuse< !#r$on 4#3 enter t*e #t4osp*ere #s 6>2 #n< will still $e lost to t*e
$iosp*ere. k
89
2009
!A!O BAS A%WADS AEE! A"OU!3 4 !O "EASO! O WO""D
he Spectator in 50& B;o2er )i2*'iel<F J54#ll !#use 'or !on!ernLF Iune 14F ./7C
]@ut onl3 now t*#t t*ese w#rnin2s *#ve re#!*e< t*e not insi2ni'i!#nt e#rs o' :rin!e 6*#rles *#ve t*e popul#r 4e<i#
$e!o4e ex!ite< $3 t*e <#r0 si<e o' n#note!*nolo23. >ne t#$loi< wroteF P,*ous#n<s o' wo4en #re usin2 !ontroversi#l
n#note!*nolo23 in s0in!#re pro<u!ts wit*out re#lisin2 it.P :le#se <onPt p#ni! Must 3et. 7#ture *#s $een 4#nipul#tin2 #to4s
sin!e 2// 4illion 3e#rs #'ter t*e @i2 @#n2F w*en 'ull3 'le<2e< !*e4istr3 w#s $orn wit* t*e 'irst st#rs. 5*e re4#ins t*e
supre4e n#note!*nolo2ist8 t*e 5#rs virus #n< @5E prions #re ex#!tl3 t*e 0in< o' rut*lessl3 e''i!ientF sel'1repli!#tin2
4ole!ul#r 4#!*ines t*#t worr3 t*e :rin!e. Ultr#violet1$lue $ir< plu4#2e exploits n#nostru!ture< 0er#tin ro<s. Even t*e
:rin!ePs $o<3 is $ri44in2 wit* n#tur#l n#no$ots 4ole!ul#r 4#!*ines su!* #s t*e ri$oso4e t*#t tr#nsl#tes *is 2eneti! !o<e
into proteins. ,*e <eli$er#te pr#!ti!e o' n#note!*nolo23 $3 people is # 4ore re!ent <evelop4entF $ut Must #s !o44on. >ur
5tone A2e #n!estors 4ixe< #n< 4#t!*e< n#turePs $uil<in2 $lo!0s w*en t*e3 !oo0e< 'oo<. :er*#ps t*e 'irst intention#l use
<#tes $#!0 to 45// @6F wit* 2l#ss14#0in2 in ?esopot#4i#. ,*ou2* t*e3 <i< not re#lise itF #l!*e4ists #lso sou2*t
s3ste4#ti! w#3s to 4ove #to4s en 4#sse. ,*e #$ilit3 to 4#0e t*ose Punn#tur#l 4#teri#lsP t*#t so worr3 5ir Ion#t*on is
to<#3 !#lle< !*e4istr3. W*#t is new is t*#t our #$ilit3 to 4#nipul#te #n< stu<3 4#tter *#s 4#<e 2re#t le#ps. ,wo <e!#<es
#2oF " w#s l#$oriousl3 <epositin2 sin2le l#3ers o' 4ole!ules 'or 43 <o!tor#te. ,o<#3F s!ientists !#n even s*i't #to4s. @utF
$o3F is it slowR "n one 4ilestone experi4entF on Ei2ler o' "@? wor0e< 22 *ours non1stop to write t*e !o4p#n3 tr#<e4#r0
wit* 35 xenon #to4sF !oole< to ne#r #$solute Eero to stop t*e4 Mi22lin2 #$out. ,*ese #<v#n!es <o notF *oweverF #lter t*e
'#!t t*#t t*e potenti#l ris0s o' n#note!*nolo23 re4#in in<istin2uis*#$le 'ro4 t*ose o' !*e4istr3 #n< $iote!*nolo23.
Alt*ou2* n#noterroris4 soun<s 4ore !*illin2 t*#n $ioterroris4F t*e <i''eren!e is lost on 4e. " s*oul< 4#0e !le#rF t*ou2*F t*#t itPs not #ll :rin!e
6*#rlesPs #n< Ion#t*on :orrittPs '#ult. 5!ientists t*e4selves #re p#rtl3 to $l#4e 'or t*e n#no#n2st. ,*e3 re$r#n<e< !*e4istr3 #s n#note!*nolo23 to 4#0e it sexier #n< 4ore li0el3 to #ttr#!t 'un<sF w*ile
0nowin2 t*#t it is <#'t to <e'ine # te!*nolo23 $3 # len2t* s!#le. Woul< it *elpF 'or ex#4pleF to use t*e ter4 !entite!*nolo23 B!enti 1 # *un<re<t* o' # 4etreC to <es!ri$e $ulletsF $oltsF 0e3sF pills #n< 4#r$lesKk
5ill3 t*ou2* it 4#3 $eF we see4 now to $e stu!0 wit* n#no'#n#ti!s. ,*#n0s to t*e *3peF even ,on3 @l#ir *#s $e!o4e one. )e tol< t*e ;o3#l 5o!iet3 l#st 3e#rF P-ision#ries in t*is 'iel< t#l0 #$out 4#!*ines t*e
siEe o' # !ell t*#t 4i2*tF 'or ex#4pleF i<enti'3 #n< <estro3 #ll t*e !#n!erous !ells in # $o<3.P W*ile 4ultin#tion#l !o4p#nies s#liv#te over su!* vision#r3 #ppli!#tionsF t*e 4ultin#tion#l environ4ent#l
4ove4ent $e!o4es ever 4ore wor0e< up #$out n#no!#t#strop*ies. Even t*ou2* t*ere #re 4#n3 serious #n< i44e<i#te pro$le4s '#!in2 *u4#n0in<F 4ostl3 <riven $3 overpopul#tionF n#note!*nolo23 is
$e!o4in2 t*e new 2reen 4il!*1!owF one t*#t will swell t*e 4ove4entPs !o''ers wit* su$s!riptions 'ro4 #n #nxious pu$li! to $u3 4ore $#nnersF Mu4psuits #n< stu''e< pen2uins 'or !ons!iousness1r#isin2
stunts.
!A!OE7B!O%OCD IS BU!3"E3S O$ DEA"S AWAD I$ I5S E@E! POSSIA%ET3"E?%E" C"ED COO
BEO"IES A"E 7"AUD
Sti+ in 2001 B=#r3F 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#nPs spe!i#l proMe!ts e<itorF s!ienti'i! A4eri!#nF 5epte4$erC
,*e <#n2er !o4es w*en intelli2ent people t#0e rexlerPs pre<i!tions #t '#!e v#lue. rexleri#n n#note!*nolo23 <rew
renewe< pu$li!it3 l#st 3e#r w*en # 4orose @ill Io3F t*e !*ie' s!ientist o' 5un ?i!ros3ste4sF worrie< in t*e 4#2#Eine
Wire< #$out t*e i4pli!#tions o' n#noro$ots t*#t !oul< 4ultipl3 un!ontroll#$l3. A spre#<in2 4#ss o' sel'1repli!#tin2 ro$ots1
w*#t rexler *#s l#$ele< O2r#3 2ooO1!oul< pose enou2* o' # t*re#t to so!iet3F *e 4use<F t*#t we s*oul< !onsi<er stoppin2
<evelop4ent o' n#note!*nolo23. @ut t*#t su22estion <iverts #ttention 'ro4 t*e re#l n#no 2oo8 !*e4i!#l #n< $iolo2i!#l
we#pons. A4on2 re#l !*e4ists #n< 4#teri#ls s!ientists w*o *#ve now $e!o4e n#note!*nolo2istsF rexlerPs pre<i!tions
*#ve #ssu4e< # !ert#in Au#intnessN s!ien!e is now*ere ne#r to $ein2 #$le to pro<u!e n#nos!opi! 4#!*ines t*#t !#n *elp
revive 'roEen $r#ins 'ro4 suspen<e< #ni4#tion. BEss#3s $3 rexler #n< *is !riti!sF in!lu<in2 7o$el :riEe winner ;i!*#r< E.
54#lle3F #ppe#r in t*is issue.C H3vexF # !o4p#n3 st#rte< $3 # so'tw#re 4#2n#te enti!e< $3 rexleri#n n#note!*nolo23F *#s
re!o2niEe< *ow <i''i!ult it will $e to !re#te ro$ots #t t*e n#no4eter s!#leN t*e !o4p#n3 is now <#$$lin2 wit* 4u!* l#r2er
4i!ro4e!*#ni!#l ele4entsF w*i!* rexler *#s <isp#r#2e< in *is $oo0s [see O7#no$ot 6onstru!tion 6rewsFO $3 5teven
As*le3F on p#2e &4].
;0
2009
A2H C"AD COO 4 A%UE COO SO%@ES
COO3AOS WI%% AE AA%E O 3E$EA BE SE%$,"EP%I7AI!C !A!OAOS
$reitas in 2000 B;o$ertF ;ese#r!* 5!ientistF 5o4e .i4its to =lo$#l E!op*#23 $3 @iovorous 7#norepli!#torsF wit* :u$li!
:oli!3 ;e!o44en<#tionsF *ttp8//www.'oresi2*t.or2/n#no/E!op*#23.*t4lC
]&.4 ?#li!ious E!op*#23
?ore <i''i!ult s!en#rios involve e!op*#2i! #tt#!0s t*#t #re l#un!*e< not to !onvert $io4#ss to n#no4#ssF $ut r#t*er
pri4#ril3 to <estro3 $io4#ss. ,*e opti4#l 4#li!ious e!op*#2i! #tt#!0 str#te23 #ppe#rs to involve # two1p*#se pro!ess. "n
t*e 'irst p*#seF initi#l see< repli$ots #re wi<el3 <istri$ute< in t*e vi!init3 o' t*e t#r2et $io4#ssF repli!#tin2 wit* 4#xi4u4
ste#lt* up to so4e !riti!#l popul#tion siEe $3 !onsu4in2 lo!#l environ4ent#l su$str#te to $uil< n#no4#ss. "n t*e se!on<
p*#seF t*e now1l#r2e repli$ot popul#tion !e#ses repli!#tion #n< ex!lusivel3 un<ert#0es its pri4#r3 <estru!tive purpose.
?ore 2ener#ll3F t*is str#te23 4#3 $e <es!ri$e< #s @uil</estro3. urin2 t*e @uil< p*#se o' t*e 4#li!ious O$#<$otsFO #n<
#ssu4in2 te!*nolo2i!#l eAuiv#len!eF <e'ensive O2oo<$otsO enMo3 #t le#st t*ree i4port#nt t#!ti!#l #<v#nt#2es over t*eir
#<vers#ries8 :rep#r#tion 11 <e'ensive #2en!ies !#n 4#nu'#!ture #n< position in #<v#n!e overw*el4in2 Au#ntities o'
Bi<e#ll3F non1sel'1repli!#tin2C <e'ensive instru4ent#litiesF e.2.F 2oo<$otsF w*i!* !#n i44e<i#tel3 $e <eplo3e< #t t*e 'irst
si2n o' trou$leF wit* 4ini4#l #<<ition#l ris0 to t*e environ4entN E''i!ien!3 11 w*ile $#<$ots 4ust si4ult#neousl3 repli!#te
#n< <e'en< t*e4selves #2#inst #tt#!0 Beit*er #!tivel3 or $3 4#int#inin2 ste#lt*CF 2oo<$ots 4#3 !on!entr#te ex!lusivel3 on
#tt#!0in2 $#<$ots Be.2.F $e!#use o' t*eir l#r2e nu4eri!#l superiorit3 in #n e#rl3 <eplo34entC #n< t*us enMo3 lower
oper#tion#l over*e#< #n< *i2*er e''i!ien!3 in #!*ievin2 t*eir purposeF #ll else eAu#lN #n< .ever#2e 11 in ter4s o' 4#teri#lsF
ener23F ti4e #n< sop*isti!#tionF 'ewer resour!es #re 2ener#ll3 reAuire< to !on'ineF <is#$leF or <estro3 # !o4plex 4#!*ine
t*#n #re reAuire< to $uil< or repli!#te t*e s#4e !o4plex 4#!*ine 'ro4 s!r#t!* Be.2.F one s4#ll $o4$ !#n <estro3 # l#r2e
$o4$14#0in2 '#!tor3N one s4#ll 4issile !#n sin0 # l#r2e s*ipC. k
A%UE COO SO%@ES C"ED COO
Arrius in 200& [Duintus st#'' writer 'or 5tr#te23 :#2e 11/6F J7#note!*nolo238 Apo!#l3pti! evelop4entKFL
www.str#te23p#2e.!o4]
]>ne su22este< solution to t*e pro$le4 o' O2re3 2ooO is O$lue 2ooO 1 spe!i#l Opoli!e4#nO n#note!* <evi!es <esi2ne<
spe!i'i!#ll3 to re!o2nise #n< <is#sse4$le 4ole!ul#r 4#!*ines w*i!* #re out o' !ontrol. ,*e $lue 2oo woul< $e <eli$er#tel3
rele#se< into t*e worl<F #n< #llowe< to repli!#te to # pre1<eter4ine< levelF t*ere to w#it #n< 4onitor t*e #!tivit3 o' ot*er
n#note!* #n< #!t in !#se o' run#w#3 sel'1repli!#tors. "tPs # p*3si!#ll3 possi$le solution to t*e pro$le4 1 $ut t*e *u4#n r#!e
*#s # lon2 *istor3 o' <evelopin2 te!*nolo2ies w*i!* <estro3 t*e environ4ent well $e'ore t*e3 <evelop t*e te!*nolo2ies to
!ontrol t*e4. Wit* n#note!*F we will onl3 2et one !*#n!e 1 t*e 'irst #!!i<ent#l rele#se !oul< $e t*e en< o' #ll li'e on e#rt*.k
;1
2009
A2H C"AD COO 4 WO!5 3ES"OD U!I@E"SE MWIPEOU SPE7I$I7N
Cre0 Coo wou-.n5t .estro0 the uni2erse e2en i* it happene.
Ever3$o<3K Fi't3 5olutions to Fer4iPs :#r#<ox #n< t*e :ro$le4 o' Extr#terrestri#l .i'eLF p. 12%C
,*is solution to t*e p#r#<oxF w*i!* *#s $een seriousl3 propose<F su''ers t*e s#4e pro$le4 #s 4#n3 ot*er solutions8 even i'
it !#n o!!ur it is not !onvin!in2 #s # Ounivers#lO solution. 7ot ever3 E,6 will su!!u4$ to t*e 2r#3 2oo.
;2
2009
!A!O,E7B COO3
!A!OE7B!O%OCD WOU%3 PE"ME!A!%D SO%@E WA" 4 I WOU%3 MA=E E@E! 3EE""E!7E
OASE%EE
Cu.1ru6 in 97 [?#r0 5uper!on<u!tivit3 ;ese#r!*er S t*e Universit3 o' ?#r3l#n< J7#note!*nolo23 #n<
"ntern#tion#l 5e!urit3FL *ttp8//www.'oresi2*t.or2/6on'eren!es/?7,/5/:#pers/=u$ru</in<ex.*t4l]
,*e n#note!*ni! er# will $e 'un<#4ent#ll3 <i''erent 'ro4 t*e er# in w*i!* nu!le#r we#pons were <evelope< #n< !#4e to
<o4in#te t*e possi$ilities 'or 2lo$#l violen!e. ,*e $o4$e<1out !ities o' t*e 5e!on< Worl< W#rF #n< t*e nu!le#r *olo!#usts
o' our i4#2in#tionF *#ve persu#<e< r#tion#l 4in<s t*#t t*ere !#n $e no expe!t#tion o' # 4e#nin2'ul vi!tor3 in tot#l w#r
$etween st#tes #r4e< wit* *un<re<s o' <eliver#$le nu!le#r we#pons. Fro4 t*#t point o' viewF w#r is o$soleteF #t le#st <ire!t
#n< open w#r $etween 2re#t powers. 7#note!*nolo23 will !#rr3 t*is evolution to t*e next step8 <eterren!e will $e!o4e
o$soleteF #s it will not $e possi$le to 4#int#in # st#$le #r4e< pe#!e $etween n#note!*ni!#ll31#r4e< riv#ls. ,*e i4pli!#tions
o' t*is st#te4ent st#n< in s*#rp !ontr#<i!tion to t*e tr#<itions o' # w#rrior !ulture #n< to t*e #ssu4ptions t*#t !urrentl3
2ui<e poli!3 in t*e Unite< 5t#tes #n< in its potenti#l riv#ls.
!A!OE7B!O%OCD WOU%3 P"O@I3E $"EE3OM A!3 A%% BE !E7ESSIIES O$ %I$E
3re+-er in 9: BEri! 7#note!*nolo2ist Engines of #reationF *ttp8//www.e1
<rexler.!o4/<//6////E>6/E>6Q6*#pterQ15.*t4l]
]7#note!*nolo23 will open new !*oi!es. 5el'1repli!#tin2 s3ste4s will $e #$le to provi<e 'oo<F *e#lt* !#reF s*elterF #n<
ot*er ne!essities. ,*e3 will #!!o4plis* t*is wit*out $ure#u!r#!ies or l#r2e '#!tories. 54#llF sel'1su''i!ient !o44unities !#n
re#p t*e $ene'its. >ne test o' t*e 'ree<o4 # te!*nolo23 o''ers is w*et*er it 'rees people to return to pri4itive w#3s o' li'e.
?o<ern te!*nolo23 '#ils t*is testN 4ole!ul#r te!*nolo23 su!!ee<s. As # test !#seF i4#2ine returnin2 to # stone1#2e st3le o'
li'e 1 not $3 si4pl3 i2norin2 4ole!ul#r te!*nolo23F $ut w*ile usin2 it. k
!A!OE7B!O%OCD WOU%3 7"EAE A UOPIA
3re+-er in 9: BEri! 7#note!*nolo2ist Engines of #reationF *ttp8//www.e1
<rexler.!o4/<//6////E>6/E>6Q6*#pterQ15.*t4l]
],*isF t*enF is t*e siEe o' t*e 'uturePs pro4ise. ,*ou2* li4its to 2rowt* will re4#inF we will $e #$le to *#rvest sol#r power
# trillion ti4es 2re#ter t*#n #ll t*e power now put to *u4#n use. Fro4 t*e resour!es o' our sol#r s3ste4F we will $e #$le to
!re#te l#n< #re# # 4illion ti4es t*#t o' E#rt*. Wit* #sse4$lersF #uto4#te< en2ineerin2F #n< t*e resour!es o' sp#!e we !#n
r#pi<l3 2#in we#lt* o' # Au#ntit3 #n< Au#lit3 $e3on< p#st <re#4s. Ulti4#te li4its to li'esp#n will re4#inF $ut !ell rep#ir
te!*nolo23 will 4#0e per'e!t *e#lt* #n< in<e'initel3 lon2 lives possi$le 'or ever3one. ,*ese #<v#n!es will $rin2 new
en2ines o' <estru!tionF $ut t*e3 will #lso 4#0e possi$le #!tive s*iel<s #n< #r4s !ontrol s3ste4s #$le to st#$iliEe pe#!e. "n
s*ortF we *#ve # !*#n!e #t # 'uture wit* roo4 enou2* 'or 4#n3 worl<s #n< 4#n3 !*oi!esF #n< wit* ti4e enou2* to explore
t*e4. A t#4e< te!*nolo23 !#n stret!* our li4itsF 4#0in2 t*e s*#pe o' te!*nolo23 pin!* t*e s*#pe o' *u4#nit3 less. "n #n
open 'uture o' we#lt*F roo4F #n< <iversit3F 2roups will $e 'ree to 'or4 #l4ost #n3 so!iet3 t*e3 wis*F 'ree to '#il or set #
s*inin2 ex#4ple 'or t*e worl<. Unless 3our <re#4s <e4#n< t*#t 3ou <o4in#te ever3one elseF !*#n!es #re t*#t ot*er people
will wis* to s*#re t*e4. "' soF t*en 3ou #n< t*ose ot*ers 4#3 !*oose to 2et to2et*er to s*#pe # new worl<. "' # pro4isin2
st#rt '#ils 1 i' it solves too 4#n3 pro$le4s or too 'ew1t*en 3ou will $e #$le to tr3 #2#in. >ur pro$le4 to<#3 is not to pl#n or
$uil< utopi#s $ut to see0 # !*#n!e to tr3.k
;&
2009
!A!O,E7B COO3
!A!OE7B!O%OCD SO%@ES A%% 3ISEASES A!3 PAI!
Spence in 99 [@illF 12/((F Al!or .i'e Extension Foun<#tionF *ttp8//www.stii.<ost.2ov.p*/in'os!ien!e/Mun2//1/Mun/1Q6.*t4]
]5uper4e<i!ine 7#note!*nolo23 !#n *#ve innu4er#$le #ppli!#tions in v#rious 'iel<s in!lu<in2 in<ustr3F #2ri!ultureF
ener23F e!olo23F #n< *e#lt*F #4on2 ot*ers. 5uper4e<i!ineF in!lu<in2 !r3oni!s Brou2*l3F 'reeEin2 t*e ter4in#ll3 wit* t*e
intention o' revivin2 it in t*e 'uture w*en n#note!*nolo23 #lre#<3 *#s t*e !ure 'or t*e illnessC ex!ites 4ore people now t*#n
#n3t*in2 else. @uil<in2 on t*e #to4i! s!#leF 4e!*#ni!#l !o4puters wit* t*e power o' # 4#in'r#4e !#n $e 4#nu'#!ture< so
s4#llF t*#t sever#l *un<re< will 'it insi<e t*e sp#!e o' # $iolo2i!#l !ell. "' one !o4$ines 4i!ros!opi! 4otorsF 2e#rsF
$e#rin2sF pl#tesF sensorsF power #n< !o44uni!#tion !#$lesF et!. wit* power'ul 4i!ros!opi! !o4putersF one *#s t*e 4#0in2s
o' # new !l#ss o' 4#teri#lsF pro2r#44#$le 4i!ros!opi! s4#rt 4#teri#ls t*#t !#n $e use< in 4e<i!ine. ?e<i!#l n#nite !#n
p#trol t*e $o<3F #r4e< wit* # !o4plete 0nowle<2e o' # personPs 7AF #n< <isp#t!* #n3 'orei2n inv#<ers. 5u!* !ell
sentinels will 'or4 #n #rti'i!i#l i44une s3ste4 #n< i44unit3 to not onl3 t*e !o44on !ol<F $ut #lso A"5 #n< #n3 'uture
vir#l or $#!teri#l 4ut#tions. ,*e n#nites !#n <o w*#t t*e pl#sti! sur2eon <oesF onl3 $etter. 7o p#inF no $ruisin2F #n< results
overni2*t. :eople !#n s!ulpt t*eir own $o<ies. :eople w*o 'eel t*e3 were $orn wit* t*e wron2 2en<er !#n re#ll3 4#0e t*e
!*#n2eF t#0in2 on t*e 'ull #ttri$ute o' t*e opposite sex. ?en !#n $e#r !*il<ren. "4#2ine *#vin2 onePs $o<3 #n< $ones
woven wit* invisi$le <i#4on< '#$ri!. 5i4ple !#l!ul#tions s*owF # properl3 en2ineere< $o<3 rein'or!e4ent net Bpossi$l3
$io1<i#4on< !o4positeC woven wit* n#nites s4#ller t*#n # *u4#n !ell !#n in!re#se toler#n!e to O=O 'or!es to t*e point t*#t
one !#n '#ll out o' # $uil<in2 #n< w#l0 #w#3 un*urt #n< #live. "n t*e event o' # 'ire or # !*e4i!#l spillF s*oul< t*e #ir $e!o4e toxi!F 4i!ros!opi! <i#4on< vessels
Must ten $illiont*s o' # 4eter wi<eF pressuriEe< wit* 1F/// #t4osp*eres o' pure ox32en !oul< sense ox32en levels in t*e $loo< #n< provi<e respir#tion reAuire4ents o' t*e $o<3 'or *ours. F#t#l #!!i<ents !#n
$e w#l0e< #w#3 'ro4F t*#n0s to # r#n2e o' s#'et3 <evi!es possi$le onl3 wit* n#note!*nolo23. Even 4ore #stoun<in2F n#no !o4puters #< 4#nipul#tors will $e s4#ll enou2* to insert into !ellsF wit*out
!o4pro4isin2 !ellul#r 'un!tion #< per'or4 # 43ri#< novel 'un!tions. >ne p#rti!ul#rl3 interestin2 'un!tion is to t#0e #n inventor3 o' t*e *ost !ellPs stru!tures usin2 t*e !ellPs 7A #s # $lueprint. 5*oul< #
'orei2n n#st3 ele4ent #rriveF so4et*in2 outsi<e t*e inventor3 #s st#te< $3 t*e !ellPs 7AF t*e !ell sentinel will <estro3 t*e inv#<er $e'ore it *#s ti4e to !#use <#4#2e. ,*e n#no !o4puter will not nee< to
0now w*#t <ise#se t*e inv#<er representsF it will not 4#tter. "' it is not in!lu<e< in t*e 7A !o<eF it is <estro3e<. -irusesF prions B4i!ros!opi! protein p#rti!le si4il#r to # virus $ut l#!0in2 in nu!lei! #!i<CF
p#r#sites #n< $#!teri# !ontinue to 4ut#te #< pro<u!e new <ise#ses w*i!* 4#nPs i44une s3ste4 4#3 or 4#3 not *#n<le. "n t*eor3F # n#no !ell sentinel !#n 4#0e t*e $o<3
i44une to #n3 present or 'uture in'e!tious <ise#ses. "4#2ine # !*il< 2rowin2 up <ise#se1'ree. ,*ere will $e no 4ore
p#in'ul !*il<$irt*. Wit* 4#ture n#note!*nolo23 !#p#$le o' !ellul#r 4#nipul#tionF t*ere is no re#son # wo4#n s*oul<
experien!e #2oniEin2 *ours o' l#$or #t t*e 4ir#!ulous 4o4ent o' $irt*. il#tion !#n $e !ontrolle< $3 t*e 4ot*er wit*out
p#in. @irt* will no lon2er $e tr#u4#ti! wit* n#note!*nolo23. ,*ere will $e n#nites 'or !ellul#r stru!tur#l rep#irs Br#<i#tion
<#4#2eF et!.C #< 2eneti! 4o<i'i!#tionsF li0e <is#$lin2 $iolo2i!#l <e#t* 2ene !lo!0s. k
!A!OE7B!O%OCD IS I!E@IAA%E A!3 SO%@ES E@E"DBI!C
Qo0 in 2000 [@ill !o1'oun<er o' 5un ?i!ros3ste4s AprilF JW*3 t*e Future oesn9t 7ee< UsFL $ire% Magazine]
]A su$seAuent $oo0FUn$oun<in2 t*e Future8 ,*e 7#note!*nolo23 ;evolutionF w*i!* rexler !owroteF i4#2ines so4e o'
t*e !*#n2es t*#t 4i2*t t#0e pl#!e in # worl< w*ere we *#< 4ole!ul#r1level O#sse4$lers.O Asse4$lers !oul< 4#0e possi$le
in!re<i$l3 low1!ost sol#r powerF !ures 'or !#n!er #n< t*e !o44on !ol< $3 #u24ent#tion o' t*e *u4#n i44une s3ste4F
essenti#ll3 !o4plete !le#nup o' t*e environ4entF in!re<i$l3 inexpensive po!0et super!o4puters 1 in '#!tF #n3 pro<u!t
woul< $e 4#nu'#!tur#$le $3 #sse4$lers #t # !ost no 2re#ter t*#n t*#t o' woo< 1 sp#!e'li2*t 4ore #!!essi$le t*#n
tr#nso!e#ni! tr#vel to<#3F #n< restor#tion o' extin!t spe!ies. " re4e4$er 'eelin2 2oo< #$out n#note!*nolo23 #'ter
re#<in2En2ines o' 6re#tion. As # te!*nolo2istF it 2#ve 4e # sense o' !#l4 1 t*#t isF n#note!*nolo23 s*owe< us t*#t
in!re<i$le pro2ress w#s possi$leF #n< in<ee< per*#ps inevit#$le. "' n#note!*nolo23 w#s our 'utureF t*en " <i<nPt 'eel presse<
to solve so 4#n3 pro$le4s in t*e present. " woul< 2et to rexlerPs utopi#n 'uture in <ue ti4eN " 4i2*t #s well enMo3 li'e
4ore in t*e *ere #n< now. "t <i<nPt 4#0e senseF 2iven *is visionF to st#3 up #ll ni2*tF #ll t*e ti4e.k
;8
2009
!A!O,E7B COO3
We ha2e to .e2e-op nanotech 4 stopping now wou-. >ust a--ow 1a. peop-e to get it 4 on 1a-ance a--owing *ree
techno-og0 a.2ance6ent is 1etter than sti*-ing it
;21 in 2//2
[?#3 2/F *ttp8//www.r21online.!o4/#r!*ives//////%.*t4l]
]7#note!* p#!0s so4et*in2 'or ever3one to worr3 #$out. GetF w*ile Io3Ps !on!erns #re wort* !onsi<erin2F #n< *is !#ll 'or
<is!ussion #ppropri#teF *is Auest 'or relinAuis*4ent is not. ,*e opinions o' $rilli#nt te!*nolo2ists notwit*st#n<in2F it is not
#t #ll !le#r t*#t we #re *e#<e< 'or Ar4#2e<<on. An< i' we #reF t*e p#t* to <3stopi# *#s #lw#3s $een #t t*e *#n<s o' *u4#ns
$ent on !ontrolF usin2 te!*nolo23 #s t*eir toolF not t*e ot*er w#3 #roun<. Io3Ps solution reAuires # 2lo$#l un#ni4it3
i4pr#!ti!#l to<#3 #n< ver3 li0el3 i4possi$le ever. Even i' O2oo<O s!ientists *el< $#!0 'ro4 !ert#in #re#s o' rese#r!*F t*is
4#3 si4pl3 put t*#t 0nowle<2e ex!lusivel3 in t*e *#n<s o' t*e O$#<O s!ientists w*o 4#3 use it 'or <estru!tionF wit* no one
!#p#$le o' !ounterin2 t*e4. +nowle<2e #4on2 virtuous 4#3 $e t*e onl3 t*in2 to prote!t us 'ro4 t*e wi!0e<. ,*ere is t*e !*#n!e
t*#t t*e evil potenti#l o' n#note!* is unle#s*e< unwittin2l3 $3 t*ose wit* 2oo< intentions. @ut 2iven t*e #4ount o' introspe!tion on t*is topi! B,*e Foresi2*t "nstituteF 'or ex#4pleF *#s <evelope< # list o'
sel'12overnin2 prin!iples in t*e <evelop4ent o' n#note!*nolo23CF it is '#r 4ore li0el3 t*#t it will $e evil t*#t will $e2et evil. Wit* t*#t $ein2 t*e !#seF
w*o 0nows w*#t virtues n#note!* !oul< $rin2 to t*e worl< in t*e intervenin2 <e!#<es $e'ore it !#n $e!o4e # <#n2erK Io3
see0s to <eter4ine 'or t*e rest o' us t*#t t*e !osts o' t*is te!*nolo23 4#3 outwei2* t*e $ene'itsF $ut it is si4pl3 i4possi$le
'or one in<ivi<u#l to tell w*et*er t*e reverse 4#3 $e t*e !#se. espite t*e *orror storiesF t*e <evelop4ent o' te!*nolo2iesF
t*ou2* not wit*out !ostsF *#s overw*el4in2l3 prove< # net positive 'or!e 'or t*e st#te o' *u4#nit3. W*ile *u4#n su''erin2
!ontinuesF #s # 2lo$#l so!iet3 we live lon2erF *e#lt*ierF #n< we#lt*ier livesF t*#n0s not ex!lusivel3F $ut in 2re#t p#rt <ue to
innov#tion. ,*o4#s ?#lt*us w#s wron2F #n< w*ile Io3 or so4e ot*er neo1?#lt*usi#n 4#3 $e ri2*t in t*e 'utureF *istor3
su22ests t*#t t*e surer p#t* to <3stopi# is not to pursue 0nowle<2eF $ut to $#n it.k
!A!OE7B!O%OCD SO%@ES WO"%3 BU!CE" A!3 IS =ED O ME3I7I!E A!3 BE E!@I"O!ME!
6*en in 2//2
[An<rewF J,*e Et*i!s o' 7#note!*nolo23FL *ttp8//www.#!tion$ios!ien!e.or2/new'rontiers/!*en.*t4l]
"t woul< not t#0e 4u!* o' # le#pF t*enF to i4#2ine <is#sse4$lers <is4#ntlin2 2#r$#2e to $e re!3!le< #t t*e 4ole!ul#r levelF
#n< t*en 2iven to #sse4$lers 'or t*e4 to $uil< #to4i!#ll3 per'e!t en2ines. 5tret!*in2 t*is vision # $itF 3ou !#n i4#2ine #
5t#r ,re0 t3pe repli!#tor w*i!* !oul< re#sse4$le 4#tter in t*e 'or4 o' # Mui!3 ste#0F 2iven t*e !orre!t $lueprints #n<
or2#niE#tion o' t*ese n#no4#!*ines. 7#note!*nolo23 !oul< #lso $ene'it 4e<i!ine #n< t*e environ4ent. Iust 2iven t*e $#si!
pre4ises o' n#note!*nolo23F 3ou !#n i4#2ine t*e v#st potenti#l o' t*is te!*nolo23. 5o4e o' its 4ore pro4inent $ene'its woul< $e8 ?#nu'#!turin2 k :re!ision ?#nu'#!turin2 k ?#teri#l ;euse k
?ini#turiE#tion ?e<i!ine k :*#r4#!euti!#l 6re#tion k ise#se ,re#t4ent k 7#no4#!*ine1#ssiste< 5ur2er3 Environ4ent k ,oxin 6le#nup k ;e!3!lin2 k ;esour!e 6onsu4ption ;e<u!tion o!tors
!oul< rep#ir our $o<ies 4i!ros!opi!#ll3 wit* n#no4#!*ines. Alon2 wit* #ll t*e o$vious 4#nu'#!turin2 $ene'itsF t*ere #re
#lso 4#n3 potenti#l 4e<i!#l #n< environ4ent#l $ene'its. Wit* n#no4#!*inesF we !oul< $etter <esi2n #n< s3nt*esiEe
p*#r4#!euti!#lsN we !oul< <ire!tl3 tre#t <ise#se< !ells li0e !#n!erN we !oul< $etter 4onitor t*e li'e si2ns o' # p#tientN or we
!oul< use n#no4#!*ines to 4#0e 4i!ros!opi! rep#irs in *#r<1to1oper#te1on #re#s o' t*e $o<3.3F12 Wit* re2#r< to t*e
environ4entF we !oul< use n#no4#!*ines to !le#n up toxins or oil spillsF re!3!le #ll 2#r$#2eF #n< eli4in#te l#n<'illsF t*us
re<u!in2 our n#tur#l resour!e !onsu4ption.
!anotechno-og0 so-2es .eath an. i--nesses
He3 in (4
B?i!*#el :*. in so!iolo23F exe!utive <ire!tor o' t*e Exp#nsion#r3 "nstitute J5eiEin2 t*e FutureFL p. 14%C
7#note!*nolo23 will #lso pl#3 # 4#Mor role in postoper#tive *e#lin2. Duite si4pl3F rep#ir 4#!*ines will *elp t*e *e#rt 2row
'res* 4us!le $3 resettin2 !ellul#r !ontrol 4e!*#nis4s. 5tro0e vi!ti4s will $e *elpe< to re2ener#te 'res* $r#in tissue even
w*ere t*ere *#s $een si2ni'i!#nt <#4#2e. ,*e ulti4#te 2o#l *ere is not 4erel3 to !ure <ise#seF $ut r#t*er to est#$lis*
li'eti4e *e#lt*F per*#ps even i44ort#lit3. ,*is will tr#nspire w*en we *#ve #!*ieve< # !o4plete un<erst#n<in2 o' t*e
4ole!ul#r stru!ture o' *e#lt*3 tissue. ,*en we will *#ve t*e 0nowle<2e to <i#2r#4F #s i' wereF t*e stru!ture o' # *e#lt*3
*e#rt !ell or # *e#lt*3 liver #n< tr#ns'er to tin3 4#!*ines t*e #!!ur#te in'or4#tion #$out t*#t or2#n9s 4ole!ulesF !ellsF #n<
tissues.
;;
2009
!A!O,E7B I!E@IAA%E
!A!OE7B!O%OCD IS I!E@IAA%E
:er0ins in (5
[Ant*on3F >!to$erF J,*e "n!re<i$le 5*rin0in2 Worl<FL Re% Herring Magazine&
*ttp8//www.re<*errin2.!o4/Arti!le.#spxK#U4/41]
]Eri! rexler !urrentl3 *e#<s t*e :#lo Alto1$#se<F non1pro'it or2#niE#tion !#lle< ,*e Foresi2*t "nstitute t*#tF in *is wor<sF
O2#t*ers #n< <istri$utes in'or4#tion #n< *ol<s !on'eren!es on te!*nolo2ies t*#t #re !le#rl3 2oin2 to *#ve # l#r2e i4p#!t on
so!iet3F wit* # p#rti!ul#r 'o!us on n#note!*nolo23.O ,*is 4#0es senseF sin!e ?r. rexler w#s t*e 'irst to intro<u!e t*e wor<
n#note!*nolo23 to t*e En2lis* l#n2u#2e in 1(&1 w*en *e w#s still # 2r#<u#te stu<ent #t ?",. 7#note!*nolo23F #lso 0nown
#s #<v#n!e< 4ole!ul#r 4#nu'#!turin2F is t*e s!ien!e o' !re#tin2 4#!*ines #t #n #to4i! level. O5o4e$o<3 re!entl3
!o4plete< # !o4puter1$#se< stu<3 on t*e use o' t*e ter4 n#note!*nolo23F #n< t*e results 'ollowe< # prett3 steep
exponenti#l !urve #'ter t*e pu$li!#tion o' 43 'irst $oo0. " t*in0 t*e !urve is 2ettin2 even steeper #s we spe#0FO ?r. rexler
tol< ,*e )errin2 #t lun!* re!entl3. :eople 2ener#ll3 t#0e one o' two <istin!t views on n#note!*nolo23. 5o4e view it #s #
serious s!ienti'i! en<e#vor t*#t !oul< le#< to t*e !re#tion o' #to4i!#ll3 pre!ise 4#nu'#!turin2 s3ste4sF w*ere pro2r#44e<
#to4s serve #s $uil<in2 $lo!0sF #n< pro<u!tivit3 #n< <#t# t*rou2*1put !oul< !on!eiv#$l3 in!re#se # trillion1'ol<. A!!or<in2
to t*is s!*ool o' t*ou2*tF n#note!*nolo23 !oul< provi<eF #4on2 ot*er t*in2sF # person#l !o4puter t*#t will p#!0 # trillion
tr#nsistorsF wit* # !urrent 6:UPs power in ever3 tr#nsistor. >t*ers view n#note!*nolo23 #s # novelt3 t*#t # 'ew s!ientists
#re # little over1ent*usi#sti! #$out $e!#use it wor0s on # n#no4eter s!#le. An< s!ientists #ll see4 to love re#ll3F re#ll3
s4#llF or re#ll3F re#ll3 $i2 t*in2s. W*et*er t*e n#norevolution will o!!ur is # 4oot Auestion. @ut we <o 0now 'ro4 # re!ent
!onvers#tion wit* "ntel 'oun<er =or<on ?ooreF t*#t t*e p*otolit*o2r#p*3 te!*nolo23 use< to $uil< to<#3Ps se4i!on<u!tors
will ulti4#tel3 *it t*e w#llF #n< t*e nu4$er o' tr#nsistors 3ou !#n 'it on # sin2le !*ip will re#!* its li4it. W*#t t*enK .et us
intro<u!e 3ou to Eri! rexler11*e Must 4i2*t *#ve t*e #nswer. ,*e )errin28 5o w*#t turne< 3ou on to n#note!*nolo23F
#n3w#3K k
!A!OE7B I!E@IAA%E
;21 in 2//2
[?#3 2/F *ttp8//www.r21online.!o4/#r!*ives//////%.*t4l]
],*in2s #re 4ovin2 '#stF *owever. 7e#rl3 5// !o4p#nies #re rese#r!*in2 #n< <evelopin2 n#note!*nolo23F in!lu<in2 su!*
$e*e4ot*s #s "@?F ?otorol#F )ewlett :#!0#r<F .u!entF )it#!*iF ?itsu$is*iF 7E6F 6ornin2F ow 6*e4i!#lF #n< 3? #s
well #s s!ores o' st#rt1upsF loo0in2 to r#ise 4one3 'ro4 ne#rl3 %5 <i''erent venture !#pit#l 'ir4s w*o *#ve 4#<e $ets on
n#note!*. A 'in#n!i#l $u$$leF w*ile not in t*e i44e<i#te 'utureF will !o4e eventu#ll3. k
;:
2009
A2H SUA!UM @A7UUM MI!I!C
Dour authors are hacks 4 there is no possi1i-it0 o* 6ining an. it won5t cause e+tinction
Scienti*ic A6erican 97 BJExploitin2 Hero1:oint Ener23FL e!e4$erF p2. &21&5F
*ttp8//www.p#<r#0.!o4/ine/H:E56"A?.*t4lC
Ex#!tl3 *ow 4u!* OEero1point ener23O resi<es in t*e v#!uu4 is un0nown. 5o4e !os4olo2ists *#ve spe!ul#te< t*#t #t t*e $e2innin2 o' t*e universeF w*en !on<itions ever3w*ere were 4ore li0e t*ose insi<e
# $l#!0 *oleF v#!uu4 ener23 w#s *i2* #n< 4#3 *#ve even tri22ere< t*e $i2 $#n2. ,o<#3 t*e ener23 level s*oul< $e lower. @ut to # 'ew opti4istsF # ri!* suppl3 still #w#its i' onl3 we 0new *ow to t#p into it.
,*ese 4#veri!0 proponents *#ve postul#te< t*#t t*e Eero1point ener23 !oul< expl#in O!ol< 'usionFO inerti# #n< ot*er p*eno4en# #n< 4i2*t so4e<#3 serve #s p#n o' # One2#tive 4#ssO s3ste4 'or propellin2
sp#!e!r#'t. "n #n interview t#pe< 'or :@5Ps 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#n FrontiersF w*i!* #ire< in 7ove4$erF )#rol< E. :ut*o''F t*e <ire!tor o' t*e "nstitute 'or A<v#n!e< 5tu<iesF o$serve<8 OFor t*e !*#uvinists in t*e
'iel< li0e ourselvesF we t*in0 t*e 21st !entur3 !oul< $e t*e Eero1point1ener23 #2e.O ,*#t !on!eit is not s*#re< $3 t*e 4#Morit3 o'
p*3si!istsN so4e even re2#r< su!* opti4is4 #s pseu<os!ien!e t*#t !oul< lee!* 'un<s 'ro4 le2iti4#te rese#r!*. ,*e
!onvention#l view is t*#t t*e ener23 in t*e v#!uu4 is 4inus!ule. in '#!tF were it in'initeF t*e n#ture o' t*e universe woul<
$e v#stl3 <i''erent8 3ou woul< not $e #$le to see in # str#i2*t line $e3on< # 'ew 0ilo4eters. O,*e v#!uu4 *#s so4e
43stiAue #$out itFO re4#r0s :eter W. ?ilonniF # p*3si!ist #t .os Al#4os 7#tion#l .#$or#tor3 w*o wrote # text on t*e
su$Me!t in 1((4 !#lle< ,*e Du#ntu4 -#!uu4. O>ne *#s to $e re#ll3 !#re'ul #$out t#0in2 t*e !on!ept too n#ivel3.O 5teve +.
.#4ore#uxF #lso #t .os Al#4osF is *#rs*er8 O,*e Eero1point1ener23 !o44unit3 is 4ore su!!ess'ul #t #<vertisin2 #n< sel'
pro4otion t*#n t*e3 #re #t !#rr3in2 out $on# 'i<e s!ienti'i! rese#r!*.O DUA7,U? F.U6,UA,">75F ripples t*#t 'or4 t*e $#sis 'or ener23 in # v#!uu4F perv#<e t*e '#$ri! o' sp#!e #n< ti4e. ,*e !on!ept
o' Eero1point ener23 <erives 'ro4 # well10nown i<e# in Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!sF t*e s!ien!e t*#t #!!ounts 'or t*e $e*#vior o' p#rti!les ne#r t*e #to4Ps siEe. 5pe!i'i!#ll3F Eeropoint ener23 e4er2es 'ro4 )eisen$er2Ps un!ert#int3 prin!ipleF w*i!* li4its t*e #!!ur#!3 o' 4e#sure4ents. ,*e =er4#n p*3si!ist Werner
)eisen$er2 <eter4ine< in 1(2% t*#t it is i4possi$le to le#rn $ot* t*e position #n< t*e 4o4entu4 o' # p#rti!le to so4e *i2* <e2ree o' #!!ur#!38 i' t*e position is 0nown per'e!tl3F t*en t*e 4o4entu4 is !o4pletel3 un0nownF #n< vi!e vers#. ,*#tPs w*3 #t #$solute EeroF # p#rti!le 4ust still $e litterin2 #$out8 i' it
were #t # !o4plete st#n<stillF its 4o4entu4 #n< position woul< $ot* $e 0nown pre!isel3 #n< si4ult#neousl3F viol#tin2 t*e un!ert#int3 prin!iple. Ener23 #n< Un!ert#int3 .i0e position #n< 4o4entu4F ener23 . #n< ti4e #lso o$e3 )eisen$er2Ps rule. ;esi<u#l ener23 4ust t*ere'ore exist in e4pt3 sp#!e8 to $e
!ert#in t*#t t*e ener23 w#s EeroF one woul< *#ve to t#0e ener23 4e#sure4ents in t*#t volu4e o' sp#!e 'orever. An< 2iven t*e eAuiv#len!e o' 4#ss #n< ener23 expresse< $3 EinsteinPs E U 4!o2F t*e v#!uu4 ener23 4ust $e #$le to !re#te p#rti!les. ,*e3 'l#s* $rie'l3 into existen!e #n< expire wit*in #n interv#l
<i!t#te< $3 t*e un!ert#int3 prin!iple. ,*is Eero1point ener23 Bw*i!* !o4es 'ro4 #ll t*e t3pes o' 'or!e 'iel<s11ele!tro4#2neti!F 2r#vit#tion#l #n< nu!le#rC 4#0es itsel' 'elt in sever#l w#3sF 4ost o' t*e4 o$vious onl3 to # p*3si!ist. >ne is t*e .#4$ s*i'tF w*i!* re'ers to # sli2*t 'reAuen!3 #lter#tion in t*e li2*t
e4itte< $3 #n ex!ite< #to4. Anot*er is # p#rti!ul#r 0in< o' ines!#p#$leF low1level noise t*#t re2isters in ele!troni! #n< opti!#l eAuip4ent. :er*#ps t*e 4ost <r#4#ti! ex#4pleF t*ou2*F is t*e 6#si4ir e''e!t. "n 1(4& t*e ut!* p*3si!ist ).@.=. 6#si4ir !#l!ul#te< t*#t two 4et#l pl#tes $rou2*t su''i!ientl3 !lose
to2et*er will #ttr#!t e#!* ot*er ver3 sli2*tl3. ,*e re#son is t*#t t*e n#rrow <ist#n!e $etween t*e pl#tes #llows onl3 s4#llF *i2*1'reAuen!3 ele!tro4#2neti! O4o<esO o' t*e v#!uu4 ener23 to sAueeEe in $etween. ,*e pl#tes $lo!0 out 4ost o' t*e ot*erF $i22er 4o<es. "n # w#3F e#!* pl#te #!ts #s #n #irpl#ne win2F
w*i!* !re#tes low pressure on one si<e #n< *i2* pressure on t*e ot*er. ,*e <i''eren!e in 'or!e 0no!0s t*e pl#tes tow#r< e#!* ot*er. W*ile #t t*e Universit3 o' W#s*in2tonF .#4ore#ux !on<u!te< t*e 4ost pre!ise 4e#sure4ent o' t*e 6#si4ir e''e!t. )elpe< $3 *is stu<ent ev 5enF .#4ore#ux use< 2ol<1!o#te<
Au#rtE sur'#!es #s *is pl#tes. >ne pl#te w#s #tt#!*e< to t*e en< o' # sensitive torsion pen<ulu4N i' t*#t pl#te 4ove< tow#r< t*e ot*erF t*e pen<ulu4 woul< twist. A l#ser !oul< 4e#sure t*e twistin2 o' t*e pen<ulu4 <own to >.>l14i!ron #!!ur#!3. A !urrent #pplie< to # st#!0 o' pieEoele!tri! !o4ponents 4ove<
one 6#si4ir pl#teN #n ele!troni! 'ee<$#!0 s3ste4 !ountere< t*#t 4ove4entF 0eepin2 t*e pen<ulu4 still. Hero1point1ener23 e''e!ts s*owe< up #s !*#n2es in t*e #4ount o' !urrent nee<e< to 4#int#in t*e pen<ulu4Ps position. .#4ore#ux 'oun< t*#t t*e pl#tes 2ener#te< #$out 1// 4i!ro<3nes Bone n#nonewtonC o'
'or!e. ,*#t O!orrespon<s to t*e wei2*t o' # $loo< !ell in t*e e#rt*Ps 2r#vit#tion#l 'iel<FO .#4ore#ux st#tes. ,*e result '#lls wit*in 5 per!ent o' 6#si4irPs pre<i!tion 'or t*#t p#rti!ul#r pl#te sep#r#tion #n< 2eo4etr3. -";,UA. :A;,"6.E5 !#n spont#neousl3 'l#s* into existen!e 'ro4 t*e ener23 o' Au#ntu4
'lu!tu#tions. ,*e p#rti!lesF w*i!* #rise #s 4#tter1#nti4#tter twinsF !#n inter#!t $ut 4ustF in #!!or<#n!e wit* )eisen$er2Ps un!ert#int3 prin!ipleF <is#ppe#r wit*in #n interv#l set $3 :l#n!0Ps !onst#ntF *. Hero 'or Hero1:oint evi!es e4onstr#tin2 t*e
existen!e o' Eero1point ener23 is one t*in2N extr#!tin2 use'ul #4ounts is #not*er. :ut*o''Ps instituteF w*i!* *e li0ens to #
4ini @ure#u o' 5t#n<#r<sF *#s ex#4ine< #$out 1/ <evi!es over t*e p#st 1/ 3e#rs #n< 'oun< not*in2 wor0#$le. >ne !ontr#ptionF w*ose ;ussi#n
inventor !l#i4e< !oul< pro<u!e 0ilow#tts o' ex!ess *e#tF suppose<l3 relie< on sonolu4ines!en!eF t*e !onversion o' soun< into li2*t. @o4$#r<in2 w#ter wit* soun< to !re#te #ir $u$$les !#nF un<er t*e ri2*t !on<itionsF le#< to $u$$les t*#t !oll#pse #n< 2ive o'' 'l#s*es o' li2*t. 6onvention#l t*in0in2 expl#ins
sonolu4ines!en!e in ter4s o' # s*o!0 w#ve l#un!*e< wit*in t*e !oll#psin2 $u$$leF w*i!* *e#ts t*e interior to # 'l#s* point. Followin2 up on t*e wor0 o' t*e l#te 7o$elist Iuli#n 5!*win2erF # 'ew wor0ers !ite Eero1point ener23 #s t*e !#use. @#si!#ll3F t*e sur'#!e o' t*e $u$$le is suppose< to #!t #s t*e 6#si4ir
'or!e pl#tesN #s t*e $u$$le s*rin0sF it st#rts to ex!lu<e t*e $i22er 4o<es o' t*e v#!uu4 ener23F w*i!* is !onverte< to li2*t. ,*#t t*eor3 notwit*st#n<in2F :ut*o'' #n< *is !olle#2ue 5!ott .ittle teste< t*e <evi!e #n< !*#n2e< t*e <et#ils # nu4$er o' ti4es $ut never 'oun< ex!ess ener23. :ut*o'' $elieves #to4sF not
$u$$lesF o''er # $etter #ppro#!*. )is i<e# *in2es on #n unprove< *3pot*esis8 t*#t Eeropoint ener23 is w*#t 0eeps ele!trons in #n #to4 or$itin2 t*e nu!leus. "n !l#ssi!#l p*3si!sF !ir!ul#tin2 !*#r2es li0e #n or$itin2 ele!tron lose ener23 t*rou2* r#<i#tionN w*#t 0eeps t*e ele!tron Eippin2 #roun< t*e nu!leus isF to
:ut*o''F Eero1point ener23 t*#t t*e ele!tron !ontinuousl3 #$sor$s. BDu#ntu4 4e!*#ni!s #s ori2in#ll3 'or4ul#te< si4pl3 st#tes t*#t #n ele!tron in #n #to4 4ust *#ve so4e 4ini4u4F 2roun<1st#te ener23.C :*3si!ists *#ve <e4onstr#te< t*#t # s4#ll enou2* !#vit3 !#n suppress t*e n#tur#l in!lin#tion o' # tr#ppe<F
ex!ite< p#rti!le to 2ive up so4e ener23 #n< <rop to # lower ener23 st#te [see O6#vit3 Du#ntu4 Ele!tro<3n#4i!sFO $3 5er2e )#ro!*e #n< Ie#n1?i!*el ;#i4on<N 56"E7,"F"6 A?E;"6A7F April 1((3]. @#si!#ll3F t*e !#vit3 is so s4#ll t*#t it !#n ex!lu<e so4e o' t*e lower1'reAuen!3 v#!uu4 'lu!tu#tionsF
w*i!* t*e ex!ite< #to4 nee<s to e4it li2*t #n< <rop to # lower ener23 level. ,*e !#vit3 in e''e!t !ontrols t*e v#!uu4 'lu!tu#tions. Un<er t*e ri2*t !ir!u4st#n!esF :ut*o'' re#sonsF one !oul< e''e!tivel3 4#nipul#te t*e v#!uu4 so t*#t # newF lower 2roun< st#te #ppe#rs. ,*e ele!tron woul< t*en <rop to t*e lower
2roun< st#te11in e''e!tF t*e #to4 woul< $e!o4e s4#ller11#n< 2ive up so4e ener23 in t*e pro!ess. O"t i4plies t*#t *3<ro2en or <euteriu4 inMe!te< into !#vities 4i2*t pro<u!e ex!ess ener23FO :ut*o'' s#3s. ,*is possi$ilit3 4i2*t expl#in !ol<1'usion experi4entsF *e notes11in ot*er wor<sF t*e o!!#sion#l positive
results reporte< in !ol<1'usion tests 4i2*t re#ll3 $e in<i!#tors o' Eero1point ener23 Br#t*er t*#nF one woul< #ssu4eF wis*'ul t*in0in2C. Wor0 in !#vit3 Au#ntu4 ele!tro<3n#4i!s is experi4ent#ll3 !*#llen2in2 in its own ri2*tF *oweverF so it is not !le#r *ow pr#!ti!#l #n ener23 suppl3 'ro4 Os*rin0in2 #to4sO
!oul< $e. ,*e Austin institute is testin2 # <evi!e t*#t !oul< $e interprete< #s 4#nipul#tin2 t*e v#!uu4F #lt*ou2* :ut*o'' <e!lines to provi<e <et#ilsF !itin2 propriet#r3 non<is!losure #2ree4ents wit* its <esi2ners. )ow ?u!* in 7ot*in2K Un<erl3in2 t*ese #tte4pts to t#p t*e v#!uu4 is t*e #ssu4ption t*#t e4pt3
sp#!e *ol<s enou2* ener23 to $e t#ppe<. 6onsi<erin2 Must t*e 'lu!tu#tions in t*e ele!tro4#2neti! 'or!eF t*e 4#t*e4#ti!s o' Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!s su22est t*#t #n3 2iven volu4e o' e4pt3 sp#!e !oul< !ont#in #n in'inite nu4$er o' v#!uu41ener23 'reAuen!ies11#n< *en!eF #n in'inite suppl3 o' ener23. B,*#t <oes not
even !ount t*e !ontri$utions 'ro4 ot*er 'or!es.C ,*is se# o' ener23 is l#r2el3 invisi$le to usF #!!or<in2 to t*e Eeropoint1ener23 !*#uvinistsF $e!#use it is !o4pletel3 uni'or4F $o4$#r<in2 us 'ro4 #ll <ire!tions su!* t*#t t*e net 'or!e #!tin2 on #n3 o$Me!t is Eero. @ut
Must $e!#use eAu#tions pro<u!e #n in'init3 <oes not 4e#n t*#t #n in'init3 exists in #n3 pr#!ti!#l sense. "n '#!tF p*3si!ists Auite o'ten Orenor4#liEeO eAu#tions to 2et ri< o' in'initiesF so t*#t t*e3 !#n
#s!ri$e p*3si!#l 4e#nin2 to t*eir nu4$ers. An ex#4ple is t*e !#l!ul#tion o' t*e ele!tronPs 4#ss 'ro4 t*eoreti!#l prin!iplesF
w*i!* #t '#!e v#lue le#<s to #n unre#listi!F in'inite 4#ss. ,*e s#4e 0in< o' 4#t*e4#ti!#l slei2*t1o'1*#n< 4i2*t nee< to $e
<one 'or v#!uu41ener23 !#l!ul#tions. O5o4e*ow t*e notion t*#t t*e ener23 is in'inite is too n#iveFO ?ilonni s#3s. "n '#!tF
sever#l si2ns in<i!#te t*#t t*e #4ount o' ener23 in t*e v#!uu4 isnPt wort* writin2 *o4e #$out. .#4ore#uxPs experi4ent
!oul< rou2*l3 $e !onsi<ere< to *#ve extr#!te< 1/o115 Moule. ,*#t p#ltr3 Au#ntit3 woul< see4 to $e <#4nin2 evi<en!e t*#t not 4u!* !#n $e extr#!te< 'ro4 e4pt3 sp#!e. @ut :ut*o'' !ounters t*#t 6#si4ir pl#tes #re 4#!ros!opi! o$Me!ts. W*#t is nee<e< 'or pr#!ti!#l ener23 extr#!tion #re
4#n3 pl#tesF s#3F so4e 1/o23 o' t*e4. ,*#t 4i2*t $e possi$le wit* s3ste4s t*#t rel3 on s4#ll p#rti!lesF su!* #s #to4s. OW*#t 3ou lose in ener23 per inter#!tionF 3ou 2#in in t*e nu4$er o' inter#!tionsNO *e #sserts. ?ilonni replies $3 notin2 t*#t .#4ore#uxPs pl#tes t*e4selves #re 4#<e o' #to4sF so t*#t
e''e!tivel3 t*ere were 1/o23 p#rti!les involve<. ,*e low 6#si4ir result still in<i!#tesF $3 *is 'i2uresF t*#t t*e pl#tes woul< nee< to $e 0ilo4eters lon2 to 2ener#te even # 0ilo2r#4 o' 'or!e. ?oreoverF t*ere is # !ost in extr#!tin2 t*e ener23 o' t*e pl#tes !o4in2 to2et*erF ?ilonni s#3s8 OGou *#ve to pull t*e pl#tes
#p#rtF too. Anot*er #r2u4ent 'or # 4inus!ule v#!uu4 ener23 is t*#t t*e '#$ri! o' sp#!e #n< ti4eF t*ou2* sli2*tl3 !urve< ne#r o$Me!tsF is prett3 4u!* 'l#t over#ll. r#w # tri#n2le in sp#!e #n< t*e su4 o' its #n2les is 1&/ <e2reesF #s it woul< $e on # 'l#t pie!e o' p#per. B,*e #n2les o' # tri#n2le on # sp*ereF
!onversel3F su4 to 4ore t*#n 1&/ <e2rees.C @e!#use ener23 is eAuiv#lent to 4#tterF #n< 4#tter exerts # 2r#vit#tion#l 'or!eF !os4olo2ists expe!t t*#t #n ener231ri!* v#!uu4 woul< !re#te # stron2 2r#vit3 'iel< t*#t <istorts sp#!e #n< ti4e #s it is seen to<#3. ,*e w*ole universe woul< $e evolvin2 in # <i''erent
4#nner. 6A5"?"; EFFE6, is t*e 4otion o' two p#r#llel pl#tes $e!#use o' Au#ntu4 'lu!tu#tions in # v#!uu4. ,*e pl#tes #re so <ose to2et*er t*#t onl3 s4#ll 'lu!tu#tions 'it in $etweenN t*e $i22er 4o<es #re ex!lu<e< B#$oveC. ,*e3 exert # tot#l 'or!e 2re#ter t*#n t*#t $3 t*e s4#ller 4o<es #n< *en!e pus* t*e
pl#tes to2et*er. ,*e e''e!t w#s o$serve< $3 5teve +. .#4ore#uxF now #t .os Al#4os 7#tion#l .#$or#tor3F w*o relie< on # torsion pen<ulu4 Ble'tC. A !urrent #pplie< to t*e pieEoele!tri! st#!0 trie< to 4ove t*e 6#si4ir pl#te on t*e pen<ulu4N t*e !o4pens#tor pl#tes *el< t*e pen<ulu4 still. ,*e volt#2e nee<e<
to prevent #n3 twistin2 serve< #s # 4e#sure o' t*e 6#si4ir e''e!t. HE;>1:>"7, E7E;=G w#s purporte<l3 t#ppe< wit* # 4#!*ine t*#t 4#<e use o' ultr#soni!#ll3 2ener#te< $u$$les Bri2*tC. 5u!* <evi!es #re teste< $3 )#rol< E. :ut*o'' B$elowCF <ire!tor o' t*e "nstitute 'or A<v#n!e< 5tu<ies in AustinF ,ex. 5o
'#r no #pp#r#tus *#s $een 'oun< to pro<u!e # net 2#in in ener23. ,*#t #r2u4ent ties into t*e !os4olo2i!#l !onst#ntF # !on!ept t*#t Einstein 'irst <evelope<F t*en <is!#r<e<. "n t*e eAu#tions t*#t <es!ri$e t*e st#te o' t*e universeF t*e !os4olo2i!#l !onst#nt11w*i!* in!orpor#tes Eeropoint ener2311is in # sense #
ter4 t*#t !#n !ounter#!t 2r#vit3. Astrono4i!#l o$serv#tions su22est t*e !onst#nt 4ust $e ne#rl3 Eero. 6onseAuentl3F i' t*e v#!uu4 ener23 re#ll3 is l#r2eF t*en so4e ot*er 'or!e t*#t !ontri$utes to t*e !onst#nt 4ust o''set it. An< #s p*3si!ist 5teven Wein$er2 o' t*e Universit3 o' ,ex#s notes in *is 1((2 $oo0
re#4s o' # Fin#l ,*eor3F t*#t o''set 'eels unn#tur#l8 !#l!ul#tions t*#t si<estep t*e in'init3 ter4s pro<u!e # v#!uu4 ener23 12/ or<ers o' 4#2nitu<e 2re#ter t*#n t*e ne#rl3 Eero v#lue o' t*e !os4olo2i!#l !onst#ntF so t*#t ot*er 'or!e 4ust $e opposite $ut i<enti!#l in 4#2nitu<e to t*e v#!uu4 ener23 out to 12/
<e!i4#l pl#!es. :ut*o'' replies t*#t t*e !onne!tion $etween t*e !os4olo2i!#l !onst#nt #n< Eero1point ener23 is 4ore !o4plex t*#n is o'ten re#liEe<. O>$viousl3F t*e Eeropoint1ener23 pro$le4 #n< t*e !os4olo2i!#l !onst#ntF t*ou2* rel#te<F #re re#ll3 <i''erent pro$le4sFO :ut*o'' #r2uesF notin2 t*#t pre<i!tions o'
Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!s *#ve prove< !orre!t ti4e #n< #2#in #n< t*#t inste#< so4et*in2 is still 4issin2 'ro4 !os4olo2istsP t*in0in2. 5u!* <is#2ree4ents in s!ien!e #re not unusu#lF espe!i#ll3 !onsi<erin2 *ow little is re#ll3 0nown #$out Eero1point ener23. @ut
t*ose woul<1$e utilit3 4o2uls w*o t*in0 t#ppin2 Eero1point ener23 is # wort*w*ile pursuit irrit#te so4e 4#instre#4
s!ientists. O" w#s r#t*er <is4#3e< #t t*e #ttention 'ro4 w*#t " !onsi<er # 0oo0 !o44unit3FO .#4ore#ux s#3s o' *is !ele$rit3
st#tus #4on2 Eero1point #'i!ion#<os #'ter pu$lis*in2 *is 6#si4ir e''e!t result. O"t trivi#liEes #n< #$uses 43 wor0.O ?ore
2#llin2F t*ou2*F is t*#t t*ese Opseu<os!ientists se!ure 'un<in2F per*#ps 2overn4ent#lF to !#rr3 on wit* t*eir rese#r!*FO *e
!*#r2es. :ut*o''Ps institute re!eives # little 2overn4ent 4one3 $ut 2ets 4ost o' its 'un<s 'ro4 !ontr#!ts wit* priv#te 'ir4s. >t*ers #re $#!0e< 4ore expli!itl3 $3 pu$li! 4one3. ,*is p#st Au2ust t*e
7#tion#l Aeron#uti!s #n< 5p#!e A<4inistr#tion sponsore< # 4eetin2 !#lle< t*e O@re#0t*rou2* :ropulsion :*3si!s Wor0s*op.O A!!or<in2 to p#rti!ip#ntsF Eero1point ener23 $e!#4e # *i2* priorit3 #4on2
t*ose tr3in2 to 'i2ure out w*i!* O$re#0t*rou2*sO s*oul< $e pursue<. ,*e propulsion #ppli!#tion <epen<s on # spe!ul#tion put 'ort* in 1((4 $3 :ut*o''F @ern*#r< )#is!* o' .o!0*ee< :#le Alto ;ese#r!*
.#$or#tor3 #n< Al'onso ;ue<# o' 6#li'orni# 5t#te Universit3 #t .on2 @e#!*. ,*e3 su22este< t*#t inerti#11t*e resist#n!e t*#t o$Me!ts put up w*en t*e3 #re #!!eler#te<11ste4s 'ro4 t*e <r#2 e''e!ts o' 4ovin2
t*rou2* t*e Eero1point 'iel<. @e!#use t*e Eeropoint 'iel< !#n $e 4#nipul#te< in Au#ntu4 experi4entsF :ut*o'' re#sonsF it s*oul< $e possi$le to lessen #n o$Me!tPs inerti# #n< *en!eF 'or # ro!0etF re<u!e t*e 'uel
$ur<en. :ut*o'' #n< *is !olle#2ues *#ve $een tr3in2 to prove t*is inerti#1ori2in *3pot*esis11# sensitive pen<ulu4 s*oul< $e #$le to <ete!t # Eero1point1ener23 Ow#0eO le't $3 # 4ovin2 o$Me!t11$ut :ut*o''
s#3s t*e3 *#ve not 4#n#2e< to isol#te t*eir s3ste4 well enou2* to <o so. ?ore !onvention#l s!ientists <e!rie< t*e !*#nnelin2 o' 7A5A 'un<s to # 4eetin2 w*ere re#l s!ien!e w#s l#!0in2. OWe *#r<l3 t#l0e<
#$out t*e p*3si!sO o' t*e propos#lsF !o4pl#ine< ?ilonniF #<<in2 t*#t <urin2 one o' t*e $re#0out sessions Ot*ere w#s # 2u3 t#l0in2 #$out #str#l proMe!tion.O 6ert#inl3F t*ere s*oul< $e roo4 'or '#r1
outF potenti#ll3 revolution#r3 i<e#sF $ut not #t t*e expense o' soli< s!ien!e. O>ne *#s to 0eep #n open 4in<F $ut t*e
!on!epts "Pve seen so '#r woul< viol#te ener23 !onserv#tionFO ?ilonni !on!lu<es. "n siEin2 up Eero1point1ener23 s!*e4esF it
4#3 $e $est to 0eep in 4in< t*e ol< !#ve#t e4ptor8 i' it soun<s too 2oo< to $e trueF it pro$#$l3 is t*#t t*e #r2u4ent is
un'oun<e<.
;7
2009
A2H A,%I$E
A,%i*e is ri.icu-ous 4 6achines can ne2er 1e -ike hu6ans
Ue0 in 500 B?i!*#elF :ro'essor o' ?#n#2e4ent #t ?ont!l#ir 5t#te Universit3F J,*e Future F#!tor8 ,*e Five For!es
,r#ns'or4in2 >ur .ives #n< 5*#pin2 )u4#n estin3LF p. 2311233C
;ese#r!*ers w*o pre<i!t t*#t ro$ots #n< !o4puters will #!*ieve *u4#n !#p#$ilities $#se t*eir !ontentions on t*eir $elie'
t*#t soon t*ese 4#!*ines will not onl3 !o4pute $ut #lso Ot*in0.O For <e!#<es s!ien!e 'i!tion novels #n< 4ovies *#ve 'e#ture< s4#rt ro$ots wit* #l4ost *u4#n1li0e
t*in0in2 #$ilities. ,*e 4ovies 2//1 #n< t*e re!ent @i!entenni#l ?#n pre<i!t # 'uture o' t*in0in2 4#!*ines. 6#n t*e !o4puterF no 4#tter *ow !o4plex or 4#ssiveF ever t*in0 in t*e sense t*#t *u4#ns <oK
5u!* 'e#ts #s eep @luePs vi!tor3 over +#sp#rov *#ve !3$erneti! s!ientists #n< te!*ni!i#ns 4ur4urin2 t*#t we #re on t*e
ver2e o' !re#tin2 # t*in0in2 4#!*ine to !*#llen2e t*e *u4#n spe!iesP 4onopol3 on re#l intelli2en!e. )oweverF 4#n3 in t*e
!3$erneti! !o44unit3 express 2r#ve <ou$ts over w*et*er su!* 4#!*ines #!tu#ll3 per'or4 *u4#n1li0e t*in0in2. ?#rvin ?ins03F ?", pro'essor e4eritus w*o is !re<ite<
wit* initi#tin2 t*e Arti'i!i#l "ntelli2en!e BA"C 4ove4ent over 35 3e#rs #2oF put su!* pro'i!ien!3 in perspe!tive. A!!or<in2
to ?ins03F Oeep @lue 4i2*t $e #$le to win #t !*essF $ut it woul<nPt 0now to !o4e in 'ro4 t*e r#in.O 1/ ?ins03Ps !o44ent !ut to t*e
ver3 *e#rt o' t*e t*in0in2 4#!*ine <e$#te. eep @luePs !ir!uitsF wirin2F #n< pro2r#4F its entire O$ein2FO i' we !#n #ppl3 su!* # ter4 to t*is !ontriv#n!eF 0nows not*in2 ex!ept *ow to pl#3 !*ess. 6on!epts
li0e Or#inO <o not even exist in eep @luePs 4e4or3 $#n0s. 7or !oul< it even i4#2ine t*#t t*e r#inPs overw*el4in2 4oisture !oul< i4p#ir its !ir!uitsF or '#s*ion # str#te23 to #voi< su!* # 4is'ortune. "n
#<<itionF s0epti!s repe#te<l3 re4in< us t*#t *u4#n intelli2en!e !re#te< eep @lue. GetF inste#< o' !ele$r#tin2 eep @luePs vi!tor3 #s # testi4on3 to *u4#n
intelli2en!eF t*e Al !o44unit3 !on2r#tul#tes t*e 4#!*ine 'or # Mo$ well <one. A!tu#ll3F t*is <e$#te *#s #lre#<3 $een
settle< in '#vor o' *u4#n0in<. 6#4$ri<2e Universit3 p*3si!ist ;o2er :enrose !o4$ines in'or4#tion s!ien!eF !o2nitive
ps3!*olo23F #n< p*3si!s to 4#0e # ti2*tl3 !onstru!te< !#se #2#inst t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t !o4puters !#n ever #!*ieve *u4#n
intelli2en!e. "n two $oo0sF ,*e E4perorsP 7ew ?in< #n< 5*#<ows o' t*e ?in<F :enrose #r2ue< t*#t t*e !o4puter !#n never $e !ons!iousF #n< t*us
trul3 intelli2ent. 11 W*en our $r#ins oper#teF we Mu22le 4#n3 <i''erent t*ou2*ts #n< t*ou2*t p#tterns $e'ore Eeroin2 in on
one uni'ie< p#ttern t*#t $e!o4es # !ons!ious t*ou2*t. 5o4e p*3si!#l 4e!*#nis4 4ust exist t*#t *elps us #!*ieveF #n< 4#int#inF t*is p#ttern o' 4ultiple si4ult#neousl3
existin2 Oprotot*ou2*tsO $e'ore we 'o!us in on t*e 'in#l t*ou2*t. :enrose !l#i4s t*#t t*is 4e!*#nis4 #!ts Onon1lo!#ll3.O ,*#t isF so4e #spe!ts o' t*ese
t*ou2*t p#tterns woul< *#ve to #!t 4ore or less #t t*e s#4e inst#nt #t wi<el3 sep#r#te< lo!#tions o' t*e $r#inF r#t*er t*#n
spre#<in2 out rel#tivel3 slowl3F neuron $3 neuron. ,*e 2enius o' :enrosePs t*eor3 is t*e w#3 *e #pplies Au#ntu4 p*3si!s to t*e oper#tion o' t*e $r#in. )is $#si!
point is t*#t $e'ore # t*ou2*tF or t*e neur#l si2n#ls t*#t !onstitute t*ou2*tF enters our !ons!iousnessF it exists in # OAu#ntu4
w#ve st#te.O At t*e t*res*ol< o' !ons!iousnessF t*e Ow#ve1t*ou2*tsO t*en O!oll#psePP or !o#2ul#te into # sin2le or<in#r3 t*ou2*t. "'F #s :enrose !l#i4sF su!*
Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!#l p*eno4en# #re t*e oper#tin2 prin!iples $e*in< *u4#n !ons!iousnessF t*e $r#in 'un!tions in # w#3 t*#t
no 4e!*#ni!#l <evi!eF !o4puter or ot*erwiseF !#n ever repli!#te. 6o4putin2 <evi!esF #rti'i!i#l neur#l networ0sF !#nnot
si4ul#te Au#ntu4 4e!*#ni!#l p*eno4en#.12 :enrosePs t*eor3 see4s to prove t*#t no 4#tter *ow !o4plex or sop*isti!#te<
# !o4puter or !o4puter networ0 is it will never #!*ieve !ons!iousness. An< i' our s4#rt 4#!*ines !#n never re#!*
!ons!iousnessF t*e3 will never $e s#i< to trul3 t*in0R13 on#l< 7or4#nF -: o' rese#r!* #t Apple #n< ps3!*olo23
pro'essor #t t*e Universit3 o' 6#li'orni# <oes not $elieve t*#t in t*e 'oresee#$le 'uture !o4puters #n< ro$ots will !o4e to
4i4i! #n</or surp#ss people. :eople #n< !o4puters oper#te #lon2 !o4pletel3 <i''erent prin!iples. A!!or<in2 to 7or4#nF
t*e power o' $iolo2i!#l !o4put#tionF t*#t isF t*e *u4#n $r#inF e4er2es 'ro4 O# l#r2e nu4$er o' slowF !o4plex <evi!esT
neuronsTwor0in2 in p#r#llel t*rou2* intri!#te ele!tri!#l1!*e4i!#l inter#!tions.O14 All t*is *#r<wirin2 en#$les t*e *u4#n to
t*in0 in #4#Ein2l3 !o4plexF #$str#!t w#3s. >n t*e ot*er *#n<F !o4puters *#ve no pro$le4 'in<in2 sAu#re roots inst#nt#neousl3F or #<<in2 l#r2e !olu4ns o' ei2*t1<i2it nu4$ers
wit*out *esit#tion. ,*e !o4puterPs #$ilit3 to per'or4 4#t* wit* e#se #n< <exterit3 results 'ro4 its 4ultitu<inousF *i2*1spee< <evi!es 'ollowin2 $in#r3 lo2i!. Errors in t*e oper#tion o' #n3 o' t*e un<erl3in2
!o4ponents #re #voi<e< eit*er $3 !#re'ul <esi2n to 4ini4iEe '#ilure r#tes or t*rou2* error1!orre!tin2 !o<in2 in !riti!#l #re#s. @e!#use o' t*e !o4puterPs spee< #n< #!!ur#!3F
7or4#n s#3sF we #!!or< !o4puters positive tr#its su!* #s pre!iseF or<erl3F un<istr#!ti$leF une4otion#lF #n< lo2i!#l #n<
l#$el *u4#ns v#2ueF <isor2#niEe<F <istr#!ti$leF e4otion#lF #n< illo2i!#l. A!!or<in2 to 7or4#nF we *#ve our priorities
$#!0w#r<. ,o #ppre!i#te *u4#n0in<Ps n#tur#l superiorit3F *e s#3sF let us l#$el *u4#ns !re#tiveF 'lexi$leF #ttentive to !*#n2eF
#n< resour!e'ul #n< sti24#tiEe !o4puters #s <u4$F ri2i<F insensitive to !*#n2eF #n< uni4#2in#tive.
A,-i*e i6possi1-e 4 -anguage integration is 1ase. on ph0sica- e+perience that ro1ots -ack
Mi0akawa 0& BI#nu#r3 1F ?i0i0oF writer 'or #il3 Go4iuriF JGesF t*e39re !ute Will t*e3 t*in0 so4e<#3KL 'irst p#r#2r#p*
on ;>@>,5 A;6)"-EF *ttp8//www.###i.or2/#itopi!s//newstopi!s/ro$ot3.*t4lC
"s it possi$le 'or ro$ots to *#ve 4in<s li0e *u4#n $ein2sK :ro'. )iros*i ,su0i4oto o' ,o03o en0i Universit3 #tte4pte< to
#nswer t*is !ontroversi#l Auestion $3 'o!usin2 on ro$otsP !#p#$ilit3 o' un<erst#n<in2 l#n2u#2e in *is $oo0 title< P;o$otto
no +o0oroP B;o$otPs ?in<C. "n !onsi<erin2 t*is issueF ... W*ile 4#n3 s!ientists !l#i4 t*#t !o4puters will $e!o4e #$le to
un<erst#n< #n< use l#n2u#2es Must li0e peopleF ,su0i4otoF #n expert on #rti'i!i#l intelli2en!eF $elieves it will $e i4possi$le
'or !o4puters to <o so #s t*e3 *#ve no $o<ies. ,*e pro'essor !l#i4s t*#t t*e !o4pre*ension o' l#n2u#2es involves
;9
2009
P'un!tion#l p*3si!#l 4ove4ent.P "n ot*er wor<sF un<erst#n<in2 o' wor<s is #sso!i#te< wit* i4#2es $uilt up t*rou2* onePs
p*3si!#l experien!esF *e s#i<.O
;9
2009
A2H A,%I$E
"o1ots wou-. re2ere hu6an kin. an. not .estro0 us
+urEweil /1 B;#3F Iune 1&F *ttp8//www.0urEweil#i.net/4e4e/'r#4e.*t4lK4#inU/#rti!les/#rt/212.*t4lKF <eveloper o' t*e
o4ni1'ront >6;F t*e 'irst print1to1spee!* re#<in2 4#!*ineF t*e 'irst 66 'l#t1$e< s!#nnerF t*e 'irst text1to1spee!*
s3nt*esiEerF t*e 'irst 4usi! s3nt*esiEer !#p#$le o' !re#tin2 or!*estr#l soun<sF 'oun<er o' nine $usinessesF 4e4$er o' t*e
7#tion#l "nventors )#ll o' F#4eF re!ipient o' t*e 1((( 7#tion#l ?e<#l o' ,e!*nolo23 Bn#tion9s *i2*est te!* *onorC.
@#si!#ll3F *e 0nows *is ro$ots. C
W*#t <o e4otions *#ve to <o wit* intelli2en!eK "n 43 viewF our e4otion #l !#p#!it3 represents t*e 4ost intelli2ent t*in2 we
<o. "tPs t*e !uttin2 e<2e o' *u4#n intelli2en!e F #n< #s t*e 'il4 portr#3sF it will $e t*e l#st ex!lusive provin!e o' $iolo2i!#l
*u4#nit3F one t*#t 4#!*ine s will ulti4#tel3 4#ster #s well. @3 t*e w#3F i' #vi< wis*in2 to $e!o4e O# re#l $o3O soun<s
li0e # '#4ili#r '#ir3 t#leF t*e 4ovie 4#0es t*e #llusion #n< 4et#p*or o' :ino!!*io expli!it. Even e#rl3 in *is <evelop4entF
#vi< is su''i!ientl3 #ppe#lin2 t*#t *e wins t*e s34p#t*ies o' t*e Fles* F#ir spe!t#torsF 4u!* to t*e <is4#3 o' t*e 4#ster o'
!ere4oniesF w*o i4plores t*e #u<ien!e to Onot $e 'oole< $3 t*e t#lent o' t*is #rtistr3.O "n t*e t*ir< !on!eption o' 4#!*ines
t*#t t*e 4ovie presentsF we see entities t*#t #re supre4el3 su$li4e. "Pve #lw#3s 4#int#ine< t*#t we will ulti4#tel3 !*#n2e
our notion o' w*#t it is to $e # 4#!*ine. We now re2#r< # 4#!*ine #s so4et*in2 pro'oun<l3 in'erior to # *u4#n. @ut t*#tPs
onl3 $e!#use #ll t*e 4#!*ines wePve en!ountere< #re still # 4illion ti4es si4pler t*#n ourselves. @ut t*#t 2#p is s*rin0in2 #t
#n exponenti#l r#teF #n< t*e 4ovie ex#4ines w*#t " $elieve will $e t*e l#st 'rontier8 4#sterin2 our 4ost no$le e4otionsF #
!#p#$ilit3 <ispl#3e< $3 onl3 one *u4#n in t*e 4ovie #n< sou2*t $3 #t le#st one 4#!*ine. " wonPt 2ive #w#3 t*e 4oviePs
en<in2 $3 reve#lin2 w*et*er #vi< is su!!ess'ul in *is AuestF $ut " will s#3 t*#t #t one point *e <oes <ispl#3 # <e!i<e<l3
in*u4#n <e2ree o' p#tien!e."t w#s #lso 43 'eelin2 t*#t t*e ver3 #<v#n!e< entities we 4eet l#ter in t*e 4ovie #re <ispl#3in2
# no$le !*#r#!ter t*#t is li'e1#''ir4in2 in t*e 5piel$er2i#n sense. " *#ve #lso 4#int#ine< t*#t 'uture A" Ps will #ppre!i#te t*#t
t*e3 #re <eriv#tive o' t*e *u4#n 14#!*ine !iviliE#tion F #n< will t*ere$3 revere t*eir $iolo2i!#l #n!estors. ,*is view is
supporte< in 5piel$er2Ps !on!eption o' t*e 4ost #<v#n!e< 4#!*ines t*#t we 4eet in t*e 'il4.
A.2ance. AI is i6possi1-e 4 we can5t un.erstan. the co6p-e+ities o* how our own 1rains work/ -et a-one how to
1ui-. the6
rexler &6 BEn2ines o' 6re#tion J,*in0in2 ?#!*inesL *ttp8//www.e1<rexler.!o4/<//6////E>6/E>6Q6*#pterQ5.*t4lF +.
Eri!C
,*ere see4s to $e onl3 one i<e# t*#t !oul< #r2ue 'or t*e i4possi$ilit3 o' 4#0in2 t*ou2*t p#tterns <#n!e in new 'or4s o'
4#tter. ,*is is t*e i<e# o' !enta' !ateria'is! 1 t*e !on!ept t*#t 4in< is # spe!i#l su$st#n!eF # 4#2i!#l t*in0in21stu''
so4e*ow $e3on< i4it#tionF <upli!#tionF or te!*nolo2i!#l use. :s3!*o$iolo2ists see no evi<en!e 'or su!* # su$st#n!eF #n<
'in< no nee< 'or 4ent#l 4#teri#lis4 to expl#in t*e 4in<. @e!#use t*e !o4plexit3 o' t*e $r#in lies $e3on< t*e 'ull 2r#sp o'
*u4#n un<erst#n<in2F it see4s !o4plex enou2* to e4$o<3 # 4in<. "n<ee<F i' # sin2le person !oul< fu''" un<erst#n< #
$r#inF t*is woul< 4#0e t*e $r#in less !o4plex t*#n t*#t personPs 4in<. "' #ll E#rt*Ps $illions o' people !oul< !ooper#te in
si4pl3 w#t!*in2 t*e #!tivit3 o' one *u4#n $r#inF e#!* person woul< *#ve to 4onitor tens o' t*ous#n<s o' #!tive s3n#pses
si4ult#neousl3 1 !le#rl3 #n i4possi$le t#s0. For # person to tr3 to un<erst#n< t*e 'li!0erin2 p#tterns o' t*e $r#in #s # w*ole
woul< $e 'ive $illion ti4es 4ore #$sur<. 5in!e our $r#inPs 4e!*#nis4 so 4#ssivel3 overw*el4s our 4in<Ps #$ilit3 to 2r#sp
itF t*#t 4e!*#nis4 see4s !o4plex enou2* to e4$o<3 t*e 4in< itsel'.
Machines can5t ha2e origina- intent/ on-0 .eri2e. intent 4 pro2es hu6anit0 superior
:#p#Ei#n (2 Bennis ;.F :*.. in "ntern#tion#l stu<iesF <oes proMe!ts in new te!*nolo23F 5t. :eters$ur2 "nstitute 'or
"n'or4#ti!s #n< Auto4#tion o' t*e ;ussi#n A!#<e43 o' 5!ien!esF ?#3 1((2
*ttp8//www.u4<.u4i!*.e<u/<ept/#r4eni#n/p#p#Ei#n/ro$ots.*t4lC
A 'un<#4ent#l Auestion is8 6#n 4#n *ope Bor 'e#rC t*#t *e !#n !re#te 4#!*ines w*i!* will $e!o4e 4ore intelli2ent t*#n
*eK ,*e tr#<ition#l #nswer o' p*ilosop*3 is t*#t 4#!*inesF in<ee<F !#nnot $e 4ore intelli2ent t*#n people si4pl3 $e!#use
4#n is t*e !re#tor #n< t*e 4#!*ine t*e !re#te<. ,*e3 supporte< t*is view wit* t*e proposition t*#t onl3 *u4#ns *#ve
Oori2in#l intentO w*ile 4#!*ines !#n onl3 *#ve O<erive< intent.O >nl3 ti4e will settle t*is AuestionN $utF *ope'ull3F 4#n still
4ust $e t*e Mu<2e. >ne t*in2 is now !le#rF t*#t in per'or4in2 spe!i'i! #n< li4ite< t#s0sF present 4#!*ines #re11even now11
4ore <epen<#$le t*#n 4ost peopleN 3et w*ile in <e#lin2 wit* !o4plex 4#ttersF t*ese 4#!*ines !#n see4 r#t*er stupi< #n<
inept.
:0
2009
A2H A,%I$E
Machine progra66ing can5t han.-e situations it5s not progra66e. *or 4 there5s <ero intuition
:#p#Ei#n (2
Bennis ;.F :*.. in "ntern#tion#l stu<iesF <oes proMe!ts in new te!*nolo23F 5t. :eters$ur2 "nstitute 'or "n'or4#ti!s #n<
Auto4#tion o' t*e ;ussi#n A!#<e43 o' 5!ien!esF ?#3 1((2
Furt*er4oreF t*ere is # <i''eren!e $etween # 4#!*ine <oin2 t*e wor0 o' #n intelli2ent person #n< true intelli2en!e.
6o4puters !#n now <e'e#t #ll $ut 2r#n<4#sters #t !*essF t*e3 !#n <o 3our in!o4e t#x 'ro4 Auestions 3ou #nswerF #n< t*e3
!#n <eliver 3our 4#il wit*in # $uil<in2. ,*ese spe!i#liEe< pro2r#4s #n< 4#!*inesF *oweverF !#nnot #t t*e s#4e ti4e <e#l
wit* li'e pro!esses. ,*e 4#il <eliver3 Oro$otO woul< !ontinue on its roun<s even i' #n #!!i<ent#l rele#se o' poison 2#s
woul< e4pt3 # $uil<in2 o' #ll its o!!up#nts. ,*is !ir!u4s!ri$e< Ointelli2en!eO o' t*e ro$otF !onseAuentl3F *#s $een <u$$e<
O#rti'i!i#l intelli2en!eFO or Ospe!i#liEe< intelli2en!eFO to <istin2uis* it 'ro4 true *u4#n or Oli'e intelli2en!eFO 4u!* less
O!re#tive intelli2en!e.O ,*ose w*o *#ve $een on t*e 'ore'ront o' !re#tin2 4#!*ine intelli2en!e *#ve o$serve< O*ow e#s3 t*e
P*#r<P t*in2s were to <oF #n< *ow *#r< t*e Pe#s3P t*in2s.O ,*e #ppli!#tion o' # 4#!*ine to !ert#in !o4plex t#s0sF w*i!* o'ten
4#3 ex!ee< *u4#n #$ilit3 to eAu#lF !#n $e !ontr#ste< wit* t*e in#$ilit3 o' # 4#!*ine to !o4pre*en< # nurser3 r*34e or to
le#ve # $uil<in2 in !#se o' 'ire.
E2en i* A,%i*e inte--igence is goo. it5s not trans*erra1-e which 6akes it use-ess
:#p#Ei#n (2
Bennis ;.F :*.. in "ntern#tion#l stu<iesF <oes proMe!ts in new te!*nolo23F 5t. :eters$ur2 "nstitute 'or "n'or4#ti!s #n<
Auto4#tion o' t*e ;ussi#n A!#<e43 o' 5!ien!esF ?#3 1((2
6o4puters pro2r#44e< to !#pture *u4#n expertiseF to repli!#te lo2i! #n< experien!eF #lso *#ve si2ni'i!#nt $ut li4ite< use.
A pro2r#4 to pres!ri$e 4e<i!ine 'or $#!teri#l in'e!tion 4#3 <o so $etter t*#n 4ost p*3si!i#nsF $ut t*e3 !#nnot <istin2uis*
$etween #n in'e!te< wo4#n #n< one in t*e p#ins o' !*il<$irt*. ,*e #nswer #t presentF o' !ourseF is to *#ve *u4#ns wor0
!losel3 wit* 4#!*ines to t#0e #<v#nt#2e o' t*e $est ele4ents o' $ot*F t*e 4#!*inePs lo2i! #n< 4e4or3F #n< t*e personPs
O!o44on sense.O ;#t*er t*#n repl#!in2 peopleF t*ese expert s3ste4s 4#0e people o' 4o<est intelli2en!e eAu#lF in !ert#in
t#s0sF to t*ose w*o #re $rilli#nt #n< *#ve v#st experien!e. ,*us we see *ere t*e see<s o' pro'oun< !*#n2es in t*e w#3
people wor0 #n< t*e potenti#l $ene'it 'or so!iet3.5u!* su!!essesF *oweverF 4#3 !on!e#l t*e '#!t t*#t 4#!*ine intelli2en!e is
not tr#ns'er#$le. "' # pro2r#4 is <evise< to 4#xi4iEe invest4ents in t*e sto!0 4#r0et $3 t*e 4#nipul#tion o' 'uturesF it
!#nnot ipso '#!to $e Ointelli2entO enou2* to solve pro$le4s o' #not*er sort. Unli0e *u4#n intelli2en!e #n< le#rnin2F
4#!*ine intelli2en!e !#nnot $e e#sil3 tr#ns'erre< to new #n< unexpe!te< t#s0s.
A,%i*e can5t choose 1etween 1a-ance. a-ternati2es which is a ke0 aspect o* -i*e 4 the05. *ai-
6*#n<ler /2
B+eit*F !re#tor o' ?ent#l ;e#lis4F #n< *ow 4#n3 people !#n s#3 t*e3 !re#te< so4et*in2 wit* # n#4e li0e t*#tK Also $een
pu$lis*e< in peer1reviewe< Mourn#ls 4ore ti4es t*#n =o<. J,*e An<roi< ?3t*LF p#2e 64C
" !#nnot *elp $ut won<er w*#t !*oi!e o' $e*#vior #n #rti'i!i#l intelli2en!eF pro2r#44e< wit* t*e s#4e set o' $#!02roun<
$elie's or worl<view t*#t #re #ssu4e< in Ha!'etF woul< 4#0e 'or t*e *#pless :rin!e o' en4#r0. )ow woul< it !o4pute its
w#3 out o' *is <ile44#K Even 4ore to t*e pointF *ow woul< it #!Auire existenti#l !on!erns o' its own t*#t le< to t*e
ne!essit3 o' !*oosin2 $etween evenl3 $#l#n!e< #lter#ntivesF so4et*in2 *u4#ns *#ve to <o #ll t*e ti4e. W*#t t*e 'irst t*ree
epi2r#p*s tell us is t*#t *u4#n t*in0in2 pro!ee<s 'ro4 our e(istentia' con%ition & our a'iveness) "t woul< $e 'unn3 i' it were
not so s#< to see ;#3 I#!0en<o'' o''erin2 # tent#tive list o' w*#t *e !#lls J#''e!tsL w*i!* #re inten<e< to expl#in !ert#in
!*#r#!teristi!s o' visu#l pro!essin2F su!* #s *#llu!in#tionsF w*i!* <o not 'ollow t*e nor4#l rules. ,*ese #''e!ts #re
<es!ri$e< in ter4s o' $in#r3 oppositions Bop. !it.8 3/513/&C8
:1
2009
A2H DPE,II 7I@I%IUAIO!
0pe II ci2i-i<ations are i66orta- 4 the0 are ke0 to so-2ing an0 natura- .isaster e2en no2as
+#0u in 9(( B?i!*ioF :ro'essor o' :*3si!s #t 6it3 Universit3 o' 7ew Gor0F J-isions8 )ow 5!ien!e Will ;evolutioniEe t*e
21st 6entur3LF p. 326132%C
@3 t*e ti4e # !iviliE#tion *#s re#!*e< ,3pe "" st#tusF *oweverF it will $e!o4e i44ort#lF en<urin2 t*rou2*out t*e li'e o' t*e
universe. 7ot*in2 0nown in n#ture !#n p*3si!#ll3 <estro3 # ,3pe "" !iviliE#tion. A ,3pe "" !iviliE#tion *#s t*e #$ilit3 to
'en< o'' s!ores o' #strono4i!#l or e!olo2i!#l <is#sters $3 4e#ns o' t*e power o' its te!*nolo23. :otenti#ll3 <is#strous 4eteor or !o4et i4p#!ts
!#n $e prevente< $3 <e'le!tin2 #w#3 #n3 !os4i! <e$ris in sp#!e w*i!* t*re#tens to *it its pl#net. >n # s!#le o' 4illenni#F i!e #2es !#n $e #verte< $3 4o<i'3in2 t*e we#t*erTe.2.F $3 !ontrollin2 t*e Met stre#4
ne#r its pol#r !#ps or per*#ps 4#0in2 4i!ro1#<Must4ents to t*e pl#netPs spin. @e!#use t*e pl#netPs en2ines pro<u!e l#r2e #4ounts o' *e#tF it reAuires # *i2*l3 sop*isti!#te< w#ste 4#n#2e4ent #n< re!3!lin2
s3ste4. )oweverF wit* !enturies o' experien!e in 4#n#2in2 #n< re!3!lin2 its w#stesF it will not '#!e !#t#strop*es !#use< $3 t*e !oll#pse o' its environ4ent. :er*#ps t*e 2re#test <#n2er
'#!e< $3 # ,3pe "" !iviliE#tion is pose< $3 #n eruption o' # ne#r$3 supernov#F w*ose su<<en $urst o' <e#<l3 W1r#3s !oul<
'r3 ne#r$3 pl#nets. @ut $3 4onitorin2 its ne#r$3 st#rsF # ,3pe "" !iviliE#tion will *#ve !enturies in w*i!* to $uil< sp#!e #r0s
!#p#$le o' !#rr3in2 its peoples to !olonies on ne#r$3 sol#r s3ste4s i' t*e3 <ete!t t*#t one o' its ne#r$3 st#rs is <3in2.
0pe II ci2i-i<ation is ke0 to so-2e the 1ig chi-- which causes e+tinction
+#0u in 9/4 B?i!*ioF :ro'essor o' :*3si!s #t 6it3 Universit3 o' 7ew Gor0F Astro$iolo23 ?#2#EineF J)ow A<v#n!e<
6oul< ,*e3 @eKL April 26F *ttp8//www.#stro$io.net/news/4o<ules.p*pK
opU4o<lo#<_n#4eU7ews_'ileU#rti!le_si<U(3(_4o<eUt*re#<_or<erU/_t*ol<U/C
,*ere is #lso t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t # ,3pe "" or ,3pe """ !iviliE#tion 4i2*t $e #$le to re#!* t*e '#$le< :l#n!0 ener23 wit* t*eir
4#!*ines B1/o1( $illion ele!tron voltsC. ,*is is ener23 is # Au#<rillion ti4es l#r2er t*#n our 4ost power'ul #to4 s4#s*er. ,*is ener23F #s
'#nt#sti! #s it 4#3 see4F is B$3 <e'initionC wit*in t*e r#n2e o' # ,3pe "" or """ !iviliE#tion. ,*e :l#n!0 ener23 onl3 o!!urs
#t t*e !enter o' $l#!0 *oles #n< t*e inst#nt o' t*e @i2 @#n2. @ut wit* re!ent #<v#n!es in Au#ntu4 2r#vit3 #n< superstrin2
t*eor3F t*ere is renewe< interest #4on2 p*3si!ists #$out ener2ies so v#st t*#t Au#ntu4 e''e!ts rip #p#rt t*e '#$ri! o' sp#!e #n< ti4e. Alt*ou2* it is $3 no 4e#ns !ert#in t*#t Au#ntu4 p*3si!s
#llows 'or st#$le wor4*olesF t*is r#ises t*e re4ote possi$ilit3 t*#t # su''i!ientl3 #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tions 4#3 $e #$le to 4ove vi# *oles
in sp#!eF li0e Ali!ePs .oo0in2 =l#ss. An< i' t*ese !iviliE#tions !#n su!!ess'ull3 n#vi2#te t*rou2* st#$le wor4*olesF t*en #tt#inin2 # spe!i'i! i4pulse o' # 4illion se!on<s is no lon2er # pro$le4. ,*e3
4erel3 t#0e # s*ort1!ut t*rou2* t*e 2#l#x3. ,*is woul< 2re#tl3 !ut <own t*e tr#nsition $etween # ,3pe "" #n< ,3pe """ !iviliE#tion. 5e!on<F t*e #$ilit3 to te#r *oles in sp#!e #n<
ti4e 4#3 !o4e in *#n<3 one <#3. Astrono4ersF #n#l3Ein2 li2*t 'ro4 <ist#nt supernov#sF *#ve !on!lu<e< re!entl3 t*#t t*e
universe 4#3 $e #!!eler#tin2F r#t*er t*#n slowin2 <own. "' t*is is trueF t*ere 4#3 $e #n #nti12r#vit3 'or!e Bper*#ps
EinsteinPs !os4olo2i!#l !onst#ntC w*i!* is !ounter#!tin2 t*e 2r#vit#tion#l #ttr#!tion o' <ist#nt 2#l#xies. @ut t*is #lso 4e#ns
t*#t t*e universe 4i2*t exp#n< 'orever in # @i2 6*illF until te4per#tures #ppro#!* ne#r1#$solute Eero. 5ever#l p#pers *#ve
re!entl3 l#i< out w*#t su!* # <is4#l universe 4#3 loo0 li0e. "t will $e # piti'ul si2*t8 #n3 !iviliE#tion w*i!* survives will $e
<esper#tel3 *u<<le< next to t*e <3in2 e4$ers o' '#<in2 neutron st#rs #n< $l#!0 *oles. All intelli2ent li'e 4ust <ie w*en t*e
universe <ies.
Accounta1i-it0 checks 4 this t0pe o* energ0 wou-.n5t 1e a2ai-a1-e >ust *or an0one to contro- 4 the sa6e wa0 nuc-ear
weapons use is checke. now/ 0pe II weapons use wou-. 1e checke. in the *uture) 3e6ocrac0 ensures an0one with
the a61ition to .estro0 the sun wi-- ne2er co6e to power)
i6e*ra6e 4 the transition to a t0pe II ci2i-i<ation wou-. take thousan.s o* 0ears/ we aren5t e2en 0pe I 0et
+#0u (( M?i!*ioF )enr3 5e4#t :ro'essors*ip in ,*eoreti!#l :*3si!s #t 6U7GF :*.. 'ro4 t*e Universit3 o' 6#li'orni# #t
@er0el3 ;#<i#tion .#$or#tor3F -isions8 )ow 5!ien!e will ;evolutioniEe t*e 21
st
6entur3 *ttp8//$oo0s.2oo2le.!o4/$oo0sK
vi<U"5@7/1(2&&/1&%_i<U-D!6-1-u,Q!6_p2U:A326_lp2U:A326_<AU^22t3pe`""`!iviliE#tion
^22_si2U3Q&W2!/;@;.iD+Hu#Q=e61/*xWD_*lUenC
,*e tr#nsition to # t3pe "" !iviliE#tionF w*i!* !#n utiliEe #n< 4#nipul#te t*e power o' t*e sunF 4#3 t#0e sever#l t*ous#n<
3e#rsF $#se< on t*e 2eo4etri! 2rowt* o' te!*nolo23. A t3pe "" !iviliE#tion !oul< !oloniEe t*e sol#r s3ste4 #n< per*#ps # 'ew nei2*$orin2 onesF 4ine t*e #steroi< $eltsF #n<
$e2in to $uil< 2i2#nti! 4#!*ines t*#t !#n 4#nipul#te t*e 2re#test ener23 sour!e in t*e sool#r s3ste48 t*e sun. B,*e ener23 nee<s o' # t3pe "" !iviliE#tion woul< $e so
l#r2e t*#t people woul< *#ve to 4ine t*e sun.C ,*e tr#nsition to # t3pe """ !iviliE#tionF w*i!* !#n *#rness t*e resour!es o' # 2#l#x3F stret!*es our i4#2in#tion to t*e li4it. A
t3pe """ !iviliE#tion !oul< 4#ster 'or4s o' te!*nolo23 t*#t !#n onl3 $e <re#4e< o' nowF su!* #s interstell#r tr#vel. :er*#ps t*e 4ost reve#lin2 2li4pse #t w*#t # t3pe """ !iviliE#tion 4i2*t $e li0e !#n $e 'oun<
in "s##! Asi4ov9s *oun%ation seriesF w*i!* use< t*e entire 2#l#x3 #s # st#2e. =iven t*is perspe!tiveF w*i!* sp#ns *un<re<s o' t*ous#n<s o' 3e#rs o' te!*nolo2i!#l <evelop4entF we *#ve 4#<e r#pi< pro2ress
in 2r#spin2 t*e 'un<#4ent#l l#ws o' n#ture wit*in Must t*ree *un<re< 3e#rs o' 7ewton9s ori2in#l t*eor3 o' 2r#vit3. "t is <i''i!ult to !on!eive *ow our !iviliE#tionF wit* its
li4ite< resoour!esF eventu#ll3 will 4#0e t*e tr#nsition to # ,3pe " !iviliE#tion #n< t*en exploit t*e 'ull potenti#l o' t*e
uni'ie< 'iel< t*eor3. @ut 7ewton #n< ?#xwellF in t*eir li'eti4esF pro$#$l3 #lso never re#liEe< t*#t !iviliE#tion woul< one <#3 *#ve t*e resour!es to sen< sp#!es*ips to t*e 4oon or to ele!tri'3
!ities wit* 2i2#nti! ele!tri!#l pl#nts.
:2
2009
A2H SU! WI%% E?P%O3E
Bu6ans are inno2ati2eTthe0 wou-. 1e a1-e to 6o2e to another ga-a+0 or rep-ace the sun
he Bin.u Ausiness On-ine/ 9 BJ;el3in2 on te!*nolo23 to 'ee< peopleL
*ttp8//www.t*e*in<u$usinessline.!o4/2//&//6/1&/stories/2//&/61&5//(/&//.*t4C
Even i' t*e 'e#rs o' t*e environ4ent#lists o' #n i4pen<in2 <oo4s<#3 loo0 li0e 4#teri#lisin2F *u4#n in2enuit3 is !#p#$le o'
!opin2 wit* it. Alre#<3F pl#ns #re #'oot to !re#te #n #rti'i!i#l sun<i#l in sp#!e to so'ten t*e e''e!t o' sol#r r#<i#tion.
7ei2*$ourin2 pl#nets #re $ein2 explore< wit* # view to 'in<in2 # !on2eni#l environ4ent 'or t*e settle4ent o' 2ener#tions
to !o4e. "n '#!tF *u4#n in2enuit3 is su!* t*#tF #s A3n ;#n< put itF even i' t*e 5un itsel' were to !oll#pseF *u4#n $ein2s
woul< $e #$le to repl#!e it wit* # 5un o' t*eir own !re#tion.
[!ontinues]
)u4#nit3 lives $3 its 4ore innov#tive #n< enterprisin2 4e4$ers. )u4#n in2enuit3 is li4itless. ,*ere is no <ou$t t*#t e#!*
innov#tion 4#3 !re#te so4e new pro$le4s. @ut t*ose pro$le4sF one !#n $e sureF will $e over!o4e $3 4#n9s in2enuit3.
We can co-oni<e other earth,-ike p-anets 1e*ore the sun e+p-o.es
I#!o$ Si-2er6anF !ontri$utin2 writerF !o 3ate BJAre we not t*e onl3 E#rt* out t*ereKL
*ttp8//s!ien!e.*owstu''wor0s.!o4/#$out1#ut*or.*t4jsilver4#nC
5o *ow 4#n3 ot*er E#rt*1li0e pl#nets #re out t*ere Bor were out t*ereCK 7o one 0nowsF $ut 4#n3 s!ientists $elieve t*#t itPs
inevit#$le t*#t ot*er E#rt*s will $e 'oun<. >ne 7A5A s!ientist tol< @@6 7ews t*#t so4e s!ientists $elieve t*#t ne#rl3
ever3 st#r *#s E#rt*1li0e pl#nets or$itin2 it [sour!e8 @@6 7ews]. >' !ourseF ex!ite4ent #roun< 'in<in2 t*ese ot*er E#rt*s is
$#se< on t*e i<e# t*#t t*e3 4#3 !ont#in #lien li'e or evenF !enturies 'ro4 nowF #llow 'or '#r1'lun2 *u4#n sp#!e !olonies 11
$e'ore our st#r explo<es #n< <estro3s t*e E#rt*.

he sun wi-- ne2er e+p-o.eTit isn5t -arge enough to ignite an0thing past its he-iu6 core
r. +#ren Masters/ :ost<o!tor#l Fellow #t t*e )#rv#r< 54it*soni#n 6enter 'or Astrop*3si!sF 2
As0 #n Astrono4erF J"s t*e 5un exp#n<in2K Will it ever explo<eKL *ttp8//!urious.#stro.!ornell.e<u/Auestion.p*pK
nu4$erU232C
"t is true t*#t t*e 5un is ver3 slowl3 exp#n<in2 #n< 2ettin2 $ri2*ter ri2*t now. ,*e re#son 'or t*is is t*#t #s it is $urnin2
*3<ro2en to *eliu4 in t*e !ore t*e #4ount o' *3<ro2en t*ere 2r#<u#ll3 <e!re#ses. "n or<er to 0eep t*e ener23 2ener#tion
r#te t*e s#4eF t*e te4per#ture #n< <ensit3 in t*e !ore 4ust rise. ,*is *#s t*e e''e!t t*#t t*e ener23 !#n 'low to t*e sur'#!e #
little '#ster #n< it pu''s up t*e outer l#3ers B#s well sli2*tl3 $ri2*tenin2 t*e 5unC. W*en t*e 5un runs out o' *3<ro2en in its
!ore !o4pletel3 Bw*i!* wonPt $e 'or #not*er 5 $illion 3e#rs or soC nu!le#r re#!tions will stop t*ereF $ut t*e3 will !ontinue in
# s*ell #roun< t*e !ore. ,*e !ore will !ontr#!t Bsin!e it is not 2ener#tin2 ener23C #n< #s it !ontr#!ts it will *e#t up.
Eventu#ll3 it will 2et *ot enou2* to st#rt $urnin2 *eliu4 into !#r$on B# <i''erent nu!le#r re#!tionC. W*ile t*e !ore is
!ontr#!tin2 t*e *3<ro2en $urnin2 #roun< it *e#ts will *e#t up t*e outer l#3ers w*i!* will exp#n<F #n< w*ile t*e3 <o t*#t
t*e3 will !ool. ,*e 5un will t*en $e!o4e w*#t is !#lle< # ;e< =i#nt #n< its r#<ius will $e l#r2e enou2* to envelop t*e
E#rt*R Eventu#ll3 t*e 5un will #lso run out o' *eliu4 in its !ore. W*en t*is *#ppens t*e !ore will !ontr#!t #2#inF $ut it will
never $e #$le to 2et *ot enou2* to st#rt $urnin2 #n3 ot*er ele4ents into #n3t*in2 else. ,*ere will still $e nu!le#r re#!tions
o' *eliu4 #n< *3<ro2en in s*ells #roun< t*e !ore t*ou2*F #n< t*ese will !ontinue to *e#t up t*e outer l#3ers #n< !#use t*e4
to 4ove outw#r<s. ,*e !ore will eventu#ll3 turn into w*#t we !#ll # w*ite <w#r' st#rF w*i!* is #n extre4el3 s4#ll Brou2*l3
E#rt* siEe<C <ense st#r. A w*ite <w#r' <oes not 2ener#te ener23 so it will Must slowl3 !ool #s it s*ines. ,*e outer l#3ers o'
t*e 5un will turn into w*#t we !#ll # Opl#net#r3 ne$ul#O B#lt*ou2* it *#s not*in2 to <o wit* pl#netsC #n< 2r#<u#ll3 <ri't out
into t*e interstell#r 4e<iu4. :l#net#r3 ne$ul#e #re so4e o' t*e 4ost $e#uti'ul o$Me!ts 3ou !#n see in t*e ni2*t s03. 5*own
$elow is t*e rin2 ne$ul#F 'or so4e 4ore pi!tures loo0 *ere. ,*e ;in2 7e$ul# t#0en wit* )5, 5o t*e 5un will never
explo<e Beven t*ou2* 4ore 4#ssive st#rs !#n #n< <oC. ,*e <i''eren!e is t*#t t*e 5un isnPt 4#ssive enou2* to i2nite #n3t*in2
p#st *eliu4 in its !ore. ?ore 4#ssive st#rs !ontinue nu!le#r $urnin2 until t*e3 st#rt 4#0in2 iron. ,*is !re#tes #n unst#$le
!ore w*i!* will t*en explo<e in # supernov# explosion.
:&
2009
A2H SU! WI%% E?P%O3E A"I7%E MW"IE! AD A/ A!3 POSE3 O!/ DABOON
hat artic-e is *ictiona-Tit5s written 10 a 1-ogger who 6a.e up the na6e o* an astroph0sicist who .oes not e+ist
r. .3nn 7arterF Astrono4er S t*e 54it*soni#nF 2 BJWill t*e sun 2o supernov# in six 3e#rs #n< <estro3 E#rt* B#s seen
on G#*ooCKL *ttp8//!urious.#stro.!ornell.e<u/Auestion.p*pKnu4$erU2&5C
Will t*e sun 2o supernov# in six 3e#rs #n< <estro3 E#rt* B#s seen on G#*ooCK " re!entl3 re#< #n #rti!le Blin0 now expire< on G#*oo Entert#in4ent 7ewsC t*#t " 'oun< initi#ll3 <istur$in2F $ut #'ter re#<in2 t*e
in'or4#tion on t*is site re2#r<in2 t*e sunF " 'eel 4u!* 4ore !#l4. )oweverF " #4 !urious #s to w*et*er t*e #rti!le " re#< !#rries #n3 4erit w*#tsoever. "s r. :iers -#n <er ?eer #n est#$lis*e< #strop*3si!istK
"s t*e Europe#n 5p#!e A2en!3 # respe!t#$le or2#niE#tionK o t*e3 *#ve so4e sort o' *i<<en #2en<# 'or pro4otin2 su!* #n #stonis*in2 t*eor3K Essenti#ll3F <o t*ese people 0now w*#t t*e3Pre t#l0in2 #$outK
" *#<nPt seen t*is #rti!le $e'oreF so t*#n0s 'or $rin2in2 it to 43 #ttention. GouPre ri2*t to $e s0epti!#lF 'or sever#l re#sonsR FirstF t*e sun is too s4#ll to ever 2o supernov#F so
t*e $#si! pre4ise o' t*e #rti!le is in!orre!t. ,*ere Must isnPt enou2* 4#ss in our sun to !#use it to explo<e #n< !oll#pse to
'or4 # neutron st#r or $l#!0 *ole. AlsoF " *#venPt $een #$le to 'in< out #n3 in'or4#tion on t*is 2u3 Or. :iers -#n <er
?eerO. ,*erePs #n online <#t#$#seF !#lle< t*e Astrop*3si!s #t# 53ste4F t*#t 0eeps re!or<s o' Iourn#l #rti!les pu$lis*e< in
#strono43/#strop*3si!s/pl#net#r3 s!ien!e. Even $e2innin2 2r#<u#te stu<ents will s*ow up in t*e re!or<s $e!#use t*e3Pve
usu#ll3 $een to #t le#st one !on'eren!eF #n< #s soon #s 3ou *#ve # !ouple p#pers #$out 3our re#ser!* itPs e#s3 to 'in< out
w*#t 3ouPre <oin2 #n< w*ere 3ou wor0. @ut t*is person <oesnPt s*ow up in t*e s3ste4 #t #llR " loo0e< *i4 up usin2 # se#r!*
en2ine #n< *e <oesnPt see4 to *#ve # we$ p#2e #''ili#te< wit* #n3 or2#niE#tion. 5o i' *ePs # serious #strop*3si!istF *e *#snPt
pu$lis*e< p#pers or #ppe#re< #t !on'eren!es $e'oreF #n< isnPt p#rt o' # 4#Mor or2#niE#tion. AlsoF t*e #rti!le !l#i4s *ePs
#sso!i#te< wit* t*e Europe#n 5p#!e A2en!3 BE5AC Bw*i!* is # re#lF !re<i$le or2#niE#tionCF $ut w*en 3ou loo0 #t t*eir
we$site t*erePs no 4ention o' t*is press rele#se #t #ll. 5o itPs not en<orse< $3 t*e4F #pp#rentl3. ,*e #rti!le w#s #lso written
'or OWee0l3 Worl< 7ewsOF w*i!* is one o' t*ose p#pers t*#t ten<s to pu$lis* 'i!tion#l stories #n< *#l'1trut*sF or <istort t*e trut* to 2et
# sens#tion#listi! stor3. An< t*ere #re so4e trut*s to t*e stor3. For ex#4pleF 5>)> is # s#tellite t*#t is run Mointl3 $3 E5A #n< 7A5AF #n< it <oes t#0e i4#2es o' 2i#nt 'l#res #n< pro4inen!esF w*i!* #re li0e
2i#nt explosions on t*e sun. Fl#res #n< pro4inen!es *#ppen #ll t*e ti4eF #n< #lt*ou2* t*e3 4#3 !#use #uror#e or inter'ere wit* !o44uni!#tionsF t*e3Pre re#ll3 not # $i2 <e#l. 5>)> *#s lots o' !ool i4#2esN
3ou !#n !*e!0 t*e4 out #t t*e 5>)> we$site. 7oti!e t*e3 <onPt s#3 #n3t*in2 #$out t*e sun explo<in2 eit*er. A 'ew people *#ve reAueste< 4ore in'or4#tion #$out t*e te4per#ture o' t*e sun. ,*e
te4per#ture #t t*e !enter o' t*e sun is #$out 16 4illion <e2rees +elvin B2% 4illion <e2rees F#*ren*eitCF #s st#te< in t*e #rti!le. As t*e sun $urns up its *3<ro2enF *eliu4
$uil<s up in t*e !oreF #n< t*e !ore !ontr#!ts. ,*is !ontr#!tion !#uses *e#tin2F so t*e intern#l te4per#ture o' t*e sun is
in!re#sin2 over ti4e. )oweverF t*is te4per#ture !*#n2e in t*e *3<ro2en $urnin2 sun is ver3 slowR "n t*e $oo0 O,*e 7ew
5ol#r 53ste4OF +ennet* .#n2 st#tes t*#t #s # result o' t*e !ore !ontr#!tion #n< *e#tin2F t*e sur'#!e te4per#ture *#s 2one up
3// + over t*e p#st 4.5 $illion 3e#rs. W*en t*e sun ex*#usts its *3<ro2en suppl3 Bin # 'ew $illion 3e#rsC t*e sun will $e!o4e # re< 2i#nt st#rF w*i!* *#s # 4u!* *otterF *eliu41
$urnin2F !ore $ut #!tu#ll3 # lower sur'#!e te4per#ture. B,*e Astro 2/1 we$site *#s # 2oo< we$p#2e #$out t*e sunPs evolutionF i' 3ou w#nt #n expl#n#tion o' t*e tr#nsition to re< 2i#nts.C ,*e !urrent sur'#!e
te4perture o' t*e sun is #$out 5%&/ +elvins. 5in!e sur'#!e te4per#ture <eter4ines # st#rPs !olorF t*e sun woul< #!tu#ll3 #ppe#r $lue i' its sur'#!e te4per#ture *#< <ou$le<R Ever3one woul< $e #$le to noti!e
t*#t. AlsoF t*e Wee0l3 Worl< 7ews #rti!le !l#i4s t*#t people 4e#sure< te4per#ture tren<s Oin re!ent 3e#rsOF w*i!* B$esi<es $ein2 v#2ueC is # ver3 s*ort ti4e in t*e li'e o' t*e sun. ,e4per#ture
4e#sure4ents over # 'ew 3e#rs re#ll3 wonPt tell 3ou #n3t*in2 #$out t*e lon2 ter4 $e*#vior o' t*e sun. 5oF " t*in0 w*#t
*#ppene< is t*#t Wee0l3 Worl< 7ews pie!e< to2et*er so4e trut*s #n< 'oun< so4e person willin2 to #<< # 'ew extr# t*in2s
to 4#0e t*e stor3 ex!itin2. "tPs !ert#inl3 not !re<i$le #strop*3si!sR
:8
2009
2!7 E7B AA! 7P SO%@E!7D
"egu-ations so-2e .angerous tech
Wor-. ranshu6anist Organi<ation/ 2009 B3.4 "' t*ese te!*nolo2ies #re so <#n2erousF s*oul< t*e3 $e $#nne<KF
*ttp8//www.tr#ns*u4#nis4.or2/in<ex.p*p/W,A/'#A21/6&C
,*e position t*#t we ou2*t to relinAuis* rese#r!* into ro$oti!sF 2eneti! en2ineerin2F #n< n#note!*nolo23 *#s $een
#<vo!#te< in #n #rti!le $3 @ill Io3 B2///C. Io3 #r2ue< t*#t so4e o' t*e 'uture #ppli!#tions o' t*ese te!*nolo2ies #re so
<#n2erous t*#t rese#r!* in t*ose 'iel<s s*oul< $e stoppe< now. :#rtl3 $e!#use o' Io39s previousl3 te!*nop*ili#! !re<enti#ls
B*e w#s # so'tw#re <esi2ner #n< # !o'oun<er o' 5un ?i!ros3ste4sCF *is #rti!leF w*i!* #ppe#re< in Wire< 4#2#EineF
#ttr#!te< # 2re#t <e#l o' #ttention. ?#n3 o' t*e responses to Io39s #rti!le pointe< out t*#t t*ere is no re#listi! prospe!t o' #
worl<wi<e $#n on t*ese te!*nolo2iesN t*#t t*e3 *#ve enor4ous potenti#l $ene'its t*#t we woul< not w#nt to 'or2oN t*#t t*e
poorest people 4#3 *#ve # *i2*er toler#n!e 'or ris0 in <evelop4ents t*#t !oul< i4prove t*eir !on<itionN #n< t*#t # $#n 4#3
#!tu#ll3 in!re#se t*e <#n2ers r#t*er t*#n re<u!e t*e4F $ot* $3 <el#3in2 t*e <evelop4ent o' prote!tive #ppli!#tions o' t*ese
te!*nolo2iesF #n< $3 we#0enin2 t*e position o' t*ose w*o !*oose to !o4pl3 wit* t*e $#n rel#tive to less s!rupulous 2roups
w*o <e'3 it. A 4ore pro4isin2 #ltern#tive t*#n # $l#n0et $#n is <i''erenti#l te!*nolo2i!#l <evelop4entF in w*i!* we woul<
see0 to in'luen!e t*e seAuen!e in w*i!* te!*nolo2ies <evelope<. >n t*is #ppro#!*F we woul< strive to ret#r< t*e
<evelop4ent o' *#r4'ul te!*nolo2ies #n< t*eir #ppli!#tionsF w*ile #!!eler#tin2 t*e <evelop4ent o' $ene'i!i#l te!*nolo2iesF
espe!i#ll3 t*ose t*#t o''er prote!tion #2#inst t*e *#r4'ul ones. For te!*nolo2ies t*#t *#ve <e!isive 4ilit#r3 #ppli!#tionsF
unless t*e3 !#n $e veri'i#$l3 $#nne<F we 4#3 see0 to ensure t*#t t*e3 #re <evelope< #t # '#ster p#!e in !ountries we re2#r<
#s responsi$le t*#n in t*ose t*#t we see #s potenti#l ene4ies. BW*et*er # $#n is veri'i#$le #n< en'or!e#$le !#n !*#n2e over
ti4e #s # result o' <evelop4ents in t*e intern#tion#l s3ste4 or in surveill#n!e te!*nolo23.C "n t*e !#se o' n#note!*nolo23F
t*e <esir#$le seAuen!e o' <evelop4ent is t*#t n#note!* i44une s3ste4s #n< ot*er <e'ensive 4e#sures $e <eplo3e< $e'ore
o''ensive !#p#$ilities $e!o4e #v#il#$le to 4#n3 in<epen<ent powers. >n!e # te!*nolo23 is s*#re< $3 4#n3F it $e!o4es
extre4el3 *#r< to prevent 'urt*er proli'er#tion. "n t*e !#se o' $iote!*nolo23F we s*oul< see0 to pro4ote rese#r!* into
v#!!inesF #nti1vir#l <ru2sF prote!tive 2e#rF sensorsF #n< <i#2nosti!sF #n< to <el#3 #s lon2 #s possi$le t*e <evelop4ent #n<
proli'er#tion o' $iolo2i!#l w#r'#re #2ents #n< t*e 4e#ns o' t*eir we#poniE#tion. For #rti'i!i#l intelli2en!eF # serious ris0
will e4er2e onl3 w*en !#p#$ilities #ppro#!* or surp#ss t*ose o' *u4#ns. At t*#t point one s*oul< see0 to pro4ote t*e
<evelop4ent o' 'rien<l3 A" #n< to prevent un'rien<l3 or unreli#$le A" s3ste4s. 5uperintelli2en!e is #n ex#4ple o' #
te!*nolo23 t*#t see4s espe!i#ll3 wort* pro4otin2 $e!#use it !#n *elp re<u!e # $ro#< r#n2e o' t*re#ts. 5uperintelli2ent
s3ste4s !oul< #<vise us on poli!3 #n< 4#0e t*e pro2ress !urve 'or n#note!*nolo23 steeperF t*us s*ortenin2 t*e perio< o'
vulner#$ilit3 $etween t*e <evelop4ent o' <#n2erous n#norepli!#tors #n< t*e <eplo34ent o' e''e!tive <e'enses. "' we *#ve #
!*oi!eF it see4s pre'er#$le t*#t superintelli2en!e $e <evelope< $e'ore #<v#n!e< n#note!*nolo23F #s superintelli2en!e !oul<
*elp re<u!e t*e ris0s o' n#note!*nolo23 $ut not vi!e vers#. >t*er te!*nolo2ies t*#t *#ve wi<e ris01re<u!in2 uses in!lu<e
intelli2en!e #u24ent#tionF in'or4#tion te!*nolo23F #n< surveill#n!e. ,*ese !#n 4#0e us s4#rter in<ivi<u#ll3 #n<
!olle!tivel3 or 4#0e en'or!e4ent o' ne!ess#r3 re2ul#tion 4ore 'e#si$le. A stron2 pri4# '#!ie !#se t*ere'ore exists 'or
pursuin2 t*ese te!*nolo2ies #s vi2orousl3 #s possi$le. 7ee<less to s#3F we s*oul< #lso pro4ote non1te!*nolo2i!#l
<evelop4ents t*#t #re $ene'i!i#l in #l4ost #ll s!en#riosF su!* #s pe#!e #n< intern#tion#l !ooper#tion.
:;
2009
##A%IE!S##
::
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 CE!E"A%
We 6ust preser2e hu6an -i*e so a-iens can har2est our genes *or their sur2i2a-
Spinra./ 1997 B:#ulF Writer 'or written 'or ;e/5e#r!*F A<$usters #n< i2it#l ?e<i# Jo not 4#te wit* =entle
-e2et#ri#nsFL *ttp8//$oin2$oin2.net/$ovine.*t4l
As 4#n3 now re#liEeF #liens #re usin2 E#rt* #s # l#$or#tor3 to <evelop 7A seAuen!es vit#l to t*eir own surviv#l. @ut 'ew
un<erst#n< *ow perv#sive #n< t*re#tenin2 t*ese Oexperi4entsO *#ve $e!o4e. ,*e <3in2 :lei#<i#n !iviliE#tion in!re#sin2l3
reAuires *u4#n 2enes to survive. @ut 4o<ern te!*nolo23 on E#rt* now t*re#tens *u4#nF #n< t*ere'ore #lienF surviv#l.
Aliens w#nt to eli4in#te t*is t*re#t $3 intro<u!in2 into t*e *u4#n popul#tion 2enes <erive< 'ro4 !#ttleF to 4#0e *u4#ns
4ore <o!ile #n< !ontroll#$leF less #4$itiousF less #22ressive. Aliens $e2#n 2#t*erin2 $ovine 2eneti! 4#teri#l in t*e l#te
5ixtiesF pro4ptin2 initi#l reports o' 43sterious !#ttle 4util#tions. Usin2 #$<u!te< *u4#nsF t*e3 <evelope< 2ene14o<i'ie<
*u4#n *3$ri<s !*#r#!teriEe< $3 su!* $ovine tr#its #s p#ssivit3F ve2et#ri#nis4F #n< lon2 e3el#s*es. W*en t*e *3$ri<s !#4e
o' #2eF t*e3 were $r#inw#s*e< #n< <eplo3e< to ur$#n #re#s popul#te< $3 rootless 3oun2 4is'its w*ose !#relessnessF
pro4is!uit3F #n< #!!ept#n!e o' str#n2e people per4it t*e intro<u!tion o' # new 2eneti! str#in.
Cre0 a-iens nee. the hu6an race to sur2i2e
Aur-ington !ews in 50& UF> @urlin2ton UF> #n< :#r#nor4#l ;ese#r!* #n< E<u!#tion#l 6enter,*e =re3sF /3/2%F
*ttp8//www.$urlin2tonnews.net/2re3s.*t4l
,*e =re3s. "t see4s t*#t t*e3 #re tr3in2 to s#ve t*eir <3in2 r#!e $3 usin2 4#n0in< t*rou2* #$sor$tion. "nste#< o'
<estro3in2 4#n0in<F t*e3 i4$re< t*eir 0in< into oursF t*us t*rou2* 2ener#tions o' i4$ree<in2 t*e3 $e!o4e us #n< we
t*e4. ,o repro<u!eF t*e 2r#3s 4ust o$t#in *ost 'e4#les B!ont#inersC. 5in!e utiliEin2 t*e n#tive popul#tion o' *u4#ns
!urrentl3 !#rries little ris0 o' inter<i!tionF #n< no reAuire4ents 'or 4#int#inin2 t*e *ostF t*is 4et*o< is pre'erre<.
5pe!i#liEe< 2r#3s Bt#ller #n< slen<erC <evelope< spe!i'i!#ll3 to wor0 in 2eneti! en2ineerin2 l#$sF oversee t*ese oper#tions
#s well #s t*e e''ort to !ross1$ree< t*eir r#!e wit* *u4#ns in #n e''ort to over!o4e t*eir $uilt1in li4it#tions. Fe4#les #re
t#0enF t*e 7A ev#lu#te<F #n< i' #!!ept#$leF t*e 'e4#le is t#22e< 'or 'uture re!over3. ?#les #re #lso ev#lu#te< #n< i' 'oun<
suit#$le 4#3 $e use< to i4pre2n#te !urrent sto!0 o' *ost 'e4#les in or<er to #ssure t*e tr#ns'er o' <esir#$le tr#its to 'uture
*osts 'e4#les. >t*er #!tivities involve ev#lu#tin2 t*e nervous #n< ot*er s3ste4s #n< tissues in or<er to opti4iEe t*e
on2oin2 <evelop4ent o' t*e !ross1$ree<Ps !#p#!ities.
7hro6oso6a- .egeneration o* a-iens has *orce. the6 to co6e to earth to har2est our 3!A
Ae-- in 508 BArtF 6o#st to 6o#stF 7ove4$er %F *ttp8//www.!o#stto!o#st#4.!o4/s*ows/2//4/11//%.*t4lC
Artist #n< rese#r!*er @ill ?!on#l< BAlienUF>#rt.!o4B1CC returne< to t*e s*ow to s*#re *is #n#l3sis o' #lien !r#'t. "n *is
<o!u4entin2 o' t*e ;oswell in!i<entF*e s#i< *e !re#te< *is illustr#tions $#se< on interviews wit* 24& reli#$le witnesses.
es!ri$in2 t*e ;oswell !r#'t #s # <elt#1s*#pe< O4et#l !r3st#llineO ve*i!le t*#t w#s 2rown in l#3ersF *e st#te< it w#s !#p#$le
o' 4orp*in2 un<er <i''erent !on<itions. 5u!* !r#'tF ?!on#l< <et#ile<F involve t*e use o' #n inter'#!eF in w*i!* livin2
4in<s 4er2e wit* t*e s*ipPs te!*nolo23 in or<er to per'or4 n#vi2#tionsF su!* #s tr#velin2 in *3persp#!e. ,*is or2#ni! _
4#!*ine !oll#$or#tion is # <ire!tion *u4#n1<esi2ne< sp#!e!r#'t is *e#<e< inF *e #<<e<. ?!on#l< sur4ise< t*#t t*e
!*ro4oso4#l <e2ener#tion o' t*e UF> #liens *#s $rou2*t t*e4 *ere to E#rt* in or<er to !on<u!t 7A *#rvestin2F in w*i!*
t*e3 !#n !re#te # *3$ri< spe!ies #s O*eirs to t*eir te!*nolo23.O 6onne!tin2 t*ree <i''erent witness testi4oniesF*e #lso
entert#ine< t*e notion t*#t t*e #liens !oul< $e ti4e tr#velers.
:7
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 CE!E"A%
We 6ust preser2e -i*e *or the 6o6ent so a-iens can *o--ow through with their p-ans to take o2er the wor-.)
?onstrous >r2. in 9/4 Alien 6ross1$ree<in2F *ttp8//#liens.4onstrous.!o4/#liensQ!ross1$ree<in2.*t4
A!!or<in2 to so4e s!ientists li0e #vi< ?. I#!o$sF ire!tor o' t*e "ntern#tion#l 6enter 'or A$<u!tion ;ese#r!*F #liens
woul< #$<u!t *u4#ns to !ross1$ree< t*eir 7A wit* ours #n< !re#te #n #r43 o' *3$ri< !re#tures t*#t woul< sli2*tl3 inv#<e
our pl#net. "n ,*e ,*re#tF I#!o$s expoun<s *is view t*#t # r#!e o' #lien po<1people is #$out to t#0e over t*e e#rt*. For
<e!#<esF *e expl#insF extr#terrestri#l $ein2s *#ve $een !#rr3in2 out # sust#ine< pro2r#4 o' #$<u!tionsF sper4 !olle!tionF
ov#1*#rvestin2F #n< #lien1*u4#n !ross1$ree<in2. OAt t*e *e#rt o' t*e repro<u!tive #2en<#FO *e writesF Ois t*e @ree<in2
:ro2r#4FO usin2 Oextr#uterine 2est#tion#l unitsO t*#t loo0 li0e $rown p#per $#2s to i4pre2n#te 4enop#us#l wo4enN
O?in<s!#nO to !re#te sexu#l #rous#l in unwillin2 vi!ti4sN n#s#l i4pl#nts to 4onitor ne2#tive t*ou2*tsF #n< O'et#l
extr#!tionO to s#lv#2e t*e *3$ri< i' its !#rrier t*in0s #$out #$ortion. ?oreoverF t*erePs not*in2 we !#n <oN #lre#<3 Oit 4#3 $e
too l#teO to stop t*e t*re#t o' O#lien inte2r#tionFO #n< t*e #liens !oul< $e !o4in2 ver3 soon. J"t is <istur$in2 t*#t t*e #liens
#n< *3$ri<s #re pri4#ril3 !on!erne< wit* t*e E#rt* #n< not wit* *u4#n $ein2s.L ,*e i4pli!#tion is o' # $etter worl< 'or t*e
#liensF t*e *3$ri<s #n< t*e #$<u!tees T $ut not t*e rest o' t*e *u4#n r#!e w*o #re expen<#$leF onl3 so4e o' w*o 4#3 $e
sp#re< #s # Js4#ll $ree<in2 popul#tionL 'or $#!0up *u4#n 2enes. ?#n3 #$<u!teesF *e s#3sF #re $ein2 prep#re< 'or t*eir
'uture roleF even tr#ine< to oper#te eAuip4ent. ,*e3 re!ount $ein2 s*own visions o' 4#ss <estru!tionF environ4ent#l
!#t#strop*esF even t*e <estru!tion o' E#rt* itsel'. An< t*e #liens su22est t*#t t*e3 t*e4selves !#n #vert itF wit* t*e $ree<in2
pro2r#4. A'ter Jt*e 6*#n2eL t*ere will #2#in $e pe#!e #n< !ontent4ent $rou2*t $3 t*e #liens #n< t*eir #$<u!tee *elpers
t#0in2 over t*e pl#netN trul3 # 7ew Worl< >r<er i' ever t*ere w#s one.
A-iens use the earth as a har2esting groun. 4 the0 *ear nuc-ear war
Mc3ona-. in 501 BWilli#4F expertF 4ilit#r3 #vi#tion 'or U5?6 #n< 6#li'orni# 7#tion#l =u#r<F >#sis E#rt* )3pot*esisF
*ttp8//www.2eo!ities.!o4/Are#51/5*#<owl#n<s/65&3/roswell/2&.*t4lC
For t*e l#st 1/F/// 3e#rs or soF our pl#net E#rt* *#s $een utiliEe< #s # str#te2i! o#sisF # pl#!e w*ere 4ultiple interstell#r !#r#v#n routes !onver2e11
UtiliEe< $3 4ultiple spe!ies '#!tions B-#rious *o4o2enous 2roups 4#<e up o' one or sever#l spe!ies #n< su$spe!iesC. 5olF our sunF is lo!#te< in # ne#rl3 e4pt3 re2ion o' lo!#l sp#!eF !onsistin2 pri4#ril3 o'
re< <w#r' st#rs in s3ste4s to !ol< #n< ol< to *#r$or #!tive e!os3ste4s #n< # 'ew 3ellow 4e<iu4s w*ere or2#ni! #n< even *u4#noi< xeno4orp*s 4i2*t n#tur#ll3 evolve. For #ll o' re!or<e<
*istor3F t*ese v#rious '#!tions *#ve su$tl3 r#n!*e< t*e lo!#l '#un# on E#rt*F pri4#ril3 popul#tions o' )o4o ere!tusF )o4o
7e#n<ert*#lensis #n< )o4o #nte!essor until t*e3 #!*ieve< t*e en2ineerin2 o' )o4o s#piens in # 4#nner si4il#r to t*e w#3
in w*i!* Austr#li#n 5*eep #n< 6#ttle4en r#n!* t*eir se4i 'er#l *er<s in t*e out$#!0. ?#Mor popul#tions o' *u4#nsF
espe!i#ll3 in ?exi!o #n< @r#EilF exist #s *#rvest#$le repro<u!tive #2ri!ultur#l !o44o<ities. )u4#n 6#ttle #n< 2uine# pi2s to v#rious
sep#r#te !o4petin2 '#!tions o' #liens. ,*ese '#!tions oper#te 4u!* #s <i< t*e 6#ttle @#rons o' t*e A4eri!#n 5out*west in t*e l#st !entur3. ,*e3 'or4 v#rious #lli#n!es #4on2 t*e4selves #n< wit* #
4ultin#tion#l !orpor#te !on2lo4er#te t*#t or$its le2iti4#te 2overn4ents #n< t*e3 !o4pete #n< so4eti4es s0ir4is* wit* ot*er '#!tions #n< t*ose w*o #re not p#rt o' # <iplo4#ti! 4ission #re s*ot #t $3 t*e
4#Mor *u4#n 2overn4ents. W*en t*e Ato4 $o4$ tests $e2#n in 1(45F #n interstell#r s4o0e si2n#l went out t*#t t*e restless n#tives o'
t*e E#rt* *#< <evelope< we#pons o' 4#ss <estru!tion. ,*is resulte< in t*e 43ri#< o' re!onn#iss#n!e 'li2*ts o' t*e
5out*west eserts #n< ne#rl3 #ll nu!le#r 4ilit#r3 inst#ll#tions worl<wi<e. All t*ose UF>/4ilit#r3 en!ounters.
Cre0 a-iens 6ust use our 3!A to repro.uce so the0 can *ree the6se-2es *ro6 Orion E6pire
7o--ier in 577 BAlexF ,*e .e#<in2 E<2eF Fe$ru#r3F *ttp8//www.$urlin2tonnews.net/2re3s#2en<#.*t4lC
7ow re#liEe t*#t t*e =re3s #re 2eneti! en2ineersF t*ou2* not t*e onl3 ones. ?ost o' t*e #liens 'ro4 o'' pl#net #re 2eneti!
en2ineers $e!#use t*e3 v#lue li'e 'or4s #s oppose< to 2ol< #n< silver. =eneti!PsF li'e 'or4s #n< t*in2s o' t*#t n#ture is t*eir
we#lt*. A lot o' t*e 2eneti! en2ineerin2 #n< experi4ent#tion is 2oin2 on *ereF on e#rt* #n< on ?#rs 4oon :*o$osF $3 t*e
=re3s. ,*e3 #re usin2 t*is opportunit3 to tr3 to s#tis'3 t*eir own #2en<#F w*i!* is to !re#te 7A #n< 2eneti! sto!0 t*#t is
!le#n enou2* to 'oster new p*3si!#l li'e 'or4s t*#t #re !#p#$le o' re2ener#tion #n< $irt* 'or t*eir r#!e. As o' ri2*t nowF t*e
=re3s #re 4ost intereste< in 'e4#le 2eneti! sto!0 $e!#use #ll '#4il3 line#2es 'ollow t*e 'e4#le r#t*er t*#n t*e 4#le. W*3K @e!#use 3ou #lw#3s
0now w*o 3our 4ot*er isF 3ou 4#3 not #lw#3s 0now w*o 3our '#t*er is. ?#n3 new r#!es *#ve $een !re#te< t*is w#3 t*rou2*out our 2#l#x3. "tPs not so4et*in2 t*#tPs new 2oin2 on *ere. ,*is *#s $een 2oin2
on 'or # ver3 lon2 ti4e. Few r#!es to<#3 *#ve #!tu#ll3 re4#ine< #s pure 2eneti! sto!0F wit* t*e ex!eption o' two r#!es t*#t t*e An<ro4e<#ns s#3 #re re#ll3 2eneti!#ll3 !le#n. ,*#t is t*e ;eptili#ns 'ro4
Alp*# r#!onisF #n< t*e ot*er is w*#t we !#llF or 0now #s t*e Elo*i4F w*i!* #re # ver3 #n!ient r#!e o' *u4#ns t*#t survive< .3r#. All ot*er r#!es #re # v#rie< <e2ree o' *3$ri< or 4ixture o' r#!es o' <i''erent
2eneti! sto!0. Anot*er point is t*#tF t*e =re3s t*e4selves woul< li0e to $e 'ree 'ro4 t*e >rion e4pire. ,*e3 will *#ve no !*#n!e o'
surviv#l t*e4selves i' t*e3 <o not !re#te or 4#t!* t*eir $o<3 t3pe or 2eneti!s wit* ours. Gou seeF ti4e is Aui!0l3 runnin2
out 'or t*e4 #n< we #s # r#!e #re #lso evolvin2 #t # tre4en<ous r#te. >n # spiritu#l !ons!ious levelF we #re evolvin2 <r#4#ti!#ll3F 4#0in2 our 2eneti!s *#r<er to
use w*ile t*e3 #re <3in2 out li0e t*erePs no to4orrow. An< t*e3 #re ver3 #w#re o' t*is '#!t. 5oF even t*ou2* w*#t t*e3Pre <oin2 is wron2F t*e3 re#ll3 #re !#u2*t in # ver3 tou2* position t*e4selves. @e!#use
w*#t t*e3Pre <oin2 to us *#s $een <one to t*e4. "P4 Must tr3in2 to <r#w p#r#llels. "P4 not Musti'3in2 it in #n3 w#3. @3 t*e w#3F w*en #n3 o' t*e #liens 2ive $irt* to # !*il<F t*e3 t#0e t*#t !*il< outsi<e o' t*e
e#rt*Ps #t4osp*ere so t*e !*il< is $orn 'ull3 #w#re o' its rein!#rn#tion#l *istor3F so it re#liEes w*o it isF #n< it <oesnPt !#rr3 t*e veil. W*3 is t*isK App#rentl3F t*ere is so4e 0in< o' #2ree4entN i' 3ouPre $orn
wit*in t*e e#rt*Ps #t4osp*ereF 3ouPve 2ot to $e veile<. "tPs Must p#rt o' w*#t !o4es wit* $ein2 $orn *ere.
:9
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 CE!E"A%
Scienti*ic consensus is on our si.e 4 no inte--igent -i*e 1e0on. earth
Fin#n!i#l ,i4es in V//
B6live 6oo0son #n< -i!tori# =ri''it*F J>ur ><3sse3 en<s *ere8 ?#n9s Auest 'or sel'1<is!over3 is #t # <e#<1en< wit* t*e
#!!ept#n!e t*#t we #re #lone in sp#!eLF e!e4$er 3/F ./7C
GetF sin!e t*e 'il4 w#s 'irst s*own in 1(6&F s!ienti'i! opinion *#s 2r#<u#ll3 s*i'te< #w#3 'ro4 t*e $elie' in s4#rt #liens.
W*ere s!ien!e 4ovesF t*e pu$li! usu#ll3 'ollows. ,*is 4#3 see4 #n o<< st#te4entF !onsi<erin2 t*e nu4$er o' re!ent 4e<i#
reports #$out extr#terrestri#l li'e. 5i2ns o' w#ter on ?#rs #n< Europ#F # 4oon o' IupiterF *#ve en!our#2e< spe!ul#tion #$out
#lien !re#tures. Get t*e t3pe o' li'e #strono4ers t#l0 #$out t*ese <#3s is O<u4$OF not intelli2ent. ,*e 2re#t *ope o' 7#s#Ps
?#rs 4issions is to 'in< evi<en!e o' 4i!ro$esF livin2 or <e#<. ?#rti#n $#!teri# woul< !ert#inl3 $e #n i4port#nt 'in<F $ut
t*e3 #re # $i2 step <own 'ro4 t*e little 2reen 4en o' e#rt*lin2sP i4#2in#tion. Even veter#ns o' 5E,"F #s t*e 5e#r!* 'or
Extr#terrestri#l "ntelli2en!e is 0nownF #re $e2innin2 to soun< 4ore s!epti!#l. Fr#n0 r#0eF !*#ir4#n o' t*e 5E," "nstitute
in 6#li'orni#F *#s <re#4t o' <is!overin2 li'e on ot*er pl#nets 'or 4/ 3e#rs. Ever3 <#3F *e #n< *is !olle#2ues #tte4pt to pi!0
up r#<io si2n#ls 'ro4 ot*er pl#nets. Ever3 <#3F t*e3 2o *o4e e4pt31*#n<e<. O,*ere 4#3 $e no !o4plex or2#nis4s out
t*ereFO s#3s r#0e. O,*e !*#n!es o' tool1$e#rin2 or2#nis4s w*o !oul< sen< out # si2n#l #re even 4ore re4ote. ,*ere is
intelli2ent li'e in t*e o!e#nsF 'or ex#4pleF $ut t*e w*#les #n< <olp*ins woul<nPt $e #$le to !o44uni!#te wit* #not*er
pl#net.O Astrono4ersP 2rowin2 s!epti!is4 #$out intelli2ent li'e on ot*er pl#nets is 'uelle< p#rtl3 $3 !*#n2es in t*in0in2
#$out #rwinPs t*eor3 o' evolution. +u$ri!0 <e<i!#tes t*e 'irst Au#rter o' 2//1 to # se24ent !#lle< O,*e #wn o' ?#nO.
,*e 4ovie explores t*e notion t*#t #lien intervention 44 3e#rs #2o tr#ns'or4e< #pes 'ro4 ve2et#ri#n vi!ti4s into tool1
$e#rin2 !#rnivoresF 0i!01st#rtin2 t*eir evolution into *u4#n $ein2s. W*ile t*e 'il4Ps notion o' evolution#r3 Opro2ressO is
v#2ueF +u$ri!0Ps #wn o' ?#n seAuen!e re'le!ts t*e '#4ous #rwini#n i<e# t*#t #pes 2r#<u#ll3 $e!#4e 4ore upri2*t #n<
4ore intelli2ent until t*e3 turne< into 4o<ern *o4o s#piens. ,*is view #llows *u4#ns to see t*e4selves #t t*e pinn#!le o'
t*e evolution#r3 tree 1 so '#r. W*o 0nows w*#t 0in< o' superior $ein2s 4#3 lie on t*e evolution#r3 p#t* #*e#<K Iust # 'ew
3e#rs #'ter t*e 4oviePs <e$utF *oweverF # new twist on #rwinis4 r#<i!#ll3 #ltere< t*is view. "n 1(%2 p#l#eontolo2ist
5tep*en I#3 =oul< #n< *is !olle#2ue 7iles El<re<2e <evelope< t*e t*eor3 o' Opun!tu#te< eAuili$ri#OF #!!or<in2 to w*i!*
t*e 4ost i4port#nt evolution#r3 !*#n2es #re not # 2r#<u#l pro2ression $ut r#<i!#l #n< swi't. ;ese#r!* in 2eolo23 #n<
p#l#eontolo23 sin!e t*en *#s e4p*#sise< t*e r#n<o4 n#ture o' su!* $iolo2i!#l s*i'ts. 5pe!ies #re 'or4e< not $3 t*e
4ove4ent to 2re#tness $ut $3 # series o' O#!!i<entsO. "' t*e evolution#r3 t#pe were to $e rewoun< # t*ous#n< ti4esF not*in2
li0e *u4#n $ein2s woul< #ppe#r #2#in. )#< t*e <inos#urs not $een wipe< out $3 # !#t#!l3s4i! eventF 4#44#ls woul< *#ve
$een # 4ere 'ootnote in t*e evolution#r3 $i$le. An< i' *u4#n $ein2s #re 4erel3 #n O#!!i<entO 1 # s4#ll twi2 on t*e
evolution#r3 treeF #s =oul< li0es to s#3 1 t*en t*e li0eli*oo< t*#t !re#tures li0e ourselves woul< exist on ot*er pl#nets see4s
ver3 re4ote in<ee<. At t*e s#4e ti4eF so4e #strono4ers s#3 t*e !on<itions in w*i!* intelli2ent li'e evolve< on E#rt* #re
extr#1or<in#r3 enou2* to 4#0e it li0el3 t*#t we #re #lone in our 2#l#x3F i' not in t*e universe. "n t*eir in'luenti#l $oo0 ;#re
E#rt* B5prin2erF :oun<s 1%CF :eter W#r< #n< on#l< @rownlee o' t*e Universit3 o' W#s*in2ton list t*e '#!tors t*#t 4#0e
E#rt* so spe!i#l8 "ts <ist#n!e 'ro4 t*e sun *#s ensure< t*e existen!e o' liAui< w#ter 'or 3.5$n 3e#rs. "t *#s t*e ri2*t 4#ss to
ret#in #t4osp*ere #n< o!e#ns. :l#te te!toni!s $uilt l#n< 4#sses. IupiterF its 2i#nt nei2*$ourF *#s prote!te< E#rt* 'ro4 too
4#n3 li'e1extin2uis*in2 !ollisions wit* #steroi<s #n< !o4etsF w*ile #llowin2 # 'ew to pun!tu#te t*e evolution#r3 eAuili1
$riu4. "ts or$it #roun< t*e sun is st#$le. ,*ere is enou2* !#r$on to support li'e $ut not to #llow run#w#3 2reen*ouse
*e#tin2. ;#<i#tion levels pro4ote 2eneti! !*#n2e wit*out !#usin2 let*#l <#4#2e.
:9
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 CE!E"A%
heoretica- research con*ir6s re-ia1-e e6pirica- e2i.ence 4 we are a-one
=onE#leE in 9(& B=uiller4oF Astrono4er #t Universit3 o' W#s*in2ton F 5o!iet3F JExtr#terrestri#ls8 A 4o<ern viewLF
Iul3/Au2ustF -olu4e 35F "ssue 5F :roAuestC
)#vin2 #nswere< t*e AuestionF OW*ere #re t*e3KO B#nswer8 Owe #re #ll t*ere isOCF t*e next n#tur#l Auestion isF OW*3KO ,o
#nswer t*isF we !#n tr3 to <eter4ine t*e pro$#$ilit3 o' E," $#se< on t*e 0nown l#ws o' #strono43F $iolo23F !*e4istr3F #n<
p*3si!s. " will !#ll t*is t*e t*eoreti!#l #ppro#!*. ,*e 4ost reli#$l3 <eter4ine< '#!tors *#ve to <o wit* t*e 4ost $#si!
reAuire4ents 'or li'e Be.2.F st#rs #s sour!es o' t*e !*e4i!#l ele4ents #n< ener23 'or $io!*e4i!#l re#!tionsF #n< prote!tion o' t*e $iosp*ere 'ro4 'reAuent $o4$#r<4ent 'ro4 !o4ets #n<
#steroi<sC. ,*e nu4$er o' #strono4i!#l/2eop*3si!#l p*eno4en# re!o2niEe< #s *#vin2 # si2ni'i!#nt in'luen!e on li'e *#s 2re#tl3 in!re#se< in t*e l#st t*ree <e!#<es. )ere is # list o' su!* '#!tors Bt*e 4ost
i4port#nt onesC or2#niEe< #!!or<in2 to t*e Bso4eti4es #pproxi4#teC <e!#<e e#!* w#s 'irst <is!usse< in t*e s!ienti'i! liter#ture8 "n t*e 1(6/sF t*e !riti!#l '#!tors were t*ou2*t to $e8 1C ist#n!e
'ro4 p#rent st#rN 2C ,3pe o' p#rent st#rN 3C Unsuit#$ilit3 o' 4ost 4ultiple st#r s3ste4sN 4C :#rent st#r 4ust $elon2 to t*e
O:opul#tion "O !l#ss B*#vin2 # si4il#r !o4position #s t*e sunC. "n t*e 1(%/sF t*e !riti!#l '#!tors were t*ou2*t to $e8 5C
#n2er pose< $3 ne#r$3 supernov#e. 6C :l#te te!toni!s #n essenti#l in2re<ient in re2ul#tin2 t*e 6>osu$ 2 o!3!leF #n< *en!e
t*e 4e#n 2lo$#l te4per#ture. As our 0nowle<2e in!re#se< in t*e 1(&/sF new '#!tors t*ou2*t to pl#3 # roleF in!lu<in28 %C
#n2er pose< $3 p#ss#2e t*rou2* 2i#nt 4ole!ul#r !lou< !oreN &C estru!tive power o' !o4et#r3 or #steroi<#l i4p#!tN (C
;eAuire4ent o' s4#ll r#n2e o' os!ill#tion o' t*e 5ol#r 53ste4 perpen<i!ul#r to =#l#!ti! pl#ne Bi' it is too l#r2eF we will lose
t*e prote!tion o' t*e interstell#r 2#s #n< <ust 'ro4 ioniEin2 r#<i#tion #n< t*e !o4et in'lux r#te will $e 2re#terCN 1/C ,*e
5ol#r 53ste4 is lo!#te< ver3 !lose to !orot#tion r#<ius in t*e ?il03 W#3 Bresults in 4ini4u4 nu4$er o' p#ss#2es t*rou2*
spir#l #r4sCN11C A $etter un<erst#n<in2 o' t*e #strop*3si!#l sour!es o' t*e !*e4i!#l ele4ents in t*e ?il03 W#3 pl#!es
!onstr#ints on t*e ti4in2 #n< lo!#tion o' *#$it#$le worl<s Be.2.F t*e 2#l#!ti! #$un<#n!e 2r#<ient 4#0es it less li0el3 t*#t
terrestri#l pl#nets !#n 'or4 in t*e 4et#l1poor outer re2ions o' t*e ?il03 W#3CN 12C 5iEe o' # pl#net i4port#nt in 4#int#inin2
#n #t4osp*ere #n< pl#te te!toni!s 'or lon2 perio<s o' ti4eN 13C #n2er pose< $3 #!tive 2#l#!ti! nu!leus BA=7C out$urstsN
14C ,*e p*3si!#l !*#r#!teristi!s o' # terrestri#l pl#net Blo!#tionF 4#ssF rot#tion perio<F o$liAuit3C *#ve si2ni'i!#nt sto!*#sti! !o4ponents resultin2 'ro4 t*e pre!ise steps
'ollowe< in t*eir 'or4#tion. )en!eF ver3 si4il#r initi#l !on<itions 4#3 le#< to # ver3 <i''erent pl#net#r3 s3ste4. ,*is 4e#ns t*#t one woul< not ne!ess#ril3 'in< # *#$it#$le pl#net or$itin2 #not*er st#r t*#t is
i<enti!#l to t*e 5un in ever3 w#3. "n t*e 1((/sF #s our un<erst#n<in2 in!re#se< still 'urt*erF sever#l new potenti#l '#!tors were <is!overe<F in!lu<in28 15C 7e!essit3 o' sever#l 2i#nt
pl#nets in proper or$its Blow e!!entri!it3F low in!lin#tionF !ert#in spe!i'i! sp#!in2C to re2ul#te t*e !o4et#r3 'lux in t*e inner
5ol#r 53ste4N 16C ;eAuire4ent o' # l#r2e n#tur#l s#tellite to 4ini4iEe t*e E#rt*Ps o$liAuit3 v#ri#tionsN 1%C U$iAuit3 o'
super14#ssive $l#!0 *oles in t*e nu!lei o' 4ost ne#r$3 l#r2e 2#l#xies Bin!lu<in2 our ownCN t*ese #re $elieve< to 'uel A=7
out$ursts 1&C ,*e pl#net#r3 4#2neti! 'iel< pl#3s #n i4port#nt role in prote!tin2 # pl#net#r3 #t4osp*ere 'ro4 $ein2 strippe<
#w#3 too Aui!0l3 $3 t*e stell#r win< 'ro4 t*e p#rent st#rN 1(C #n2er pose< $3 2#44# r#3 $ursts i' one o!!urs ne#r$3N 2/C
estru!tion o' protopl#net#r3 <is0s #roun< st#rs 'or4in2 ne#r 4#ssive 3oun2 st#rs #s reve#le< in t*e >rion 7e$ul# $3 t*e
)u$$le 5p#!e ,eles!ope. ,*ere #re ot*er ti4in2 !onsi<er#tions in 4#n3 o' t*e '#!tors liste< #$ove. As t*e 5unPs lu4inosit3 in!re#se<
<urin2 t*e l#st 4.5 $illion 3e#rsF t*e #t4osp*erePs 6>osu$ 2o !ontent *#s <roppe<F 4#int#inin2 4o<er#te sur'#!e te4per#tures. :ro$#$l3 wit*in t*e next 'ew *un<re< 4illion 3e#rsF 6>osu$ 2o re<u!tion will
$e in!#p#$le o' 4#int#inin2 toler#$le sur'#!e te4per#tures B$e!#use t*ere will $e no 4ore 6>osu$ 2o in t*e #t4osp*ereC. "n #$out 1.5 $illion 3e#rs t*e E#rt*Ps o$liAuit3 v#ri#tions will li0el3 $e!o4e l#r2e
#n< !*#oti!. >n # l#r2er s!#leF t*e #4plitu<e o' # st#rPs os!ill#tion perpen<i!ul#r to t*e =#l#!ti! pl#ne in!re#ses on # " $illion 3e#r ti4e s!#le Bt*is is $ot* pre<i!te< 'ro4 t*eoreti!#l 4o<els #n< o$serve<
#4on2 ne#r$3 st#rsC. ,*ere #re so4e ot*er i4port#nt '#!tors not 3et <is!usse< in t*e liter#ture #s t*e3 rel#te to *#$it#$ilit3. 5o4e o' t*ese in!lu<e8 1C ,*ere #re ti4in2
!onstr#ints i4pose< $3 t*e nee< o' # su''i!ientl3 *i2* !on!entr#tion o' lon2live< r#<ioisotopes to <rive pl#te te!toni!s 'or
sever#l $illion 3e#rs Bwe #re li0el3 livin2 ne#r t*e epo!* wit* t*e *i2*est !on!entr#tion o' lon21live< r#<ioisotopes in t*e
interstell#r 4e<iu4CN 2C ,*e li2*t v#ri#tions #4on2 sol#r1t3pe st#rs <e!line #s t*e3 #2e. ,*is i4poses #not*er ti4in2
!onstr#int in t*#t v#ri#tions in t*e li2*t output o' # st#r will !#use l#r2e 'lu!tu#tions in t*e !li4#te o' one o' its pl#nets. Even
to<#3F t*ere is #n o$serve< !orrel#tion $etween so4e !li4#te p#r#4eters #n< t*e ver3 s4#ll sol#r $ri2*tness v#ri#tions t*#t
#re rel#te< to t*e sunspot !3!leN 3C ,*e e!!entri!it3 o' # st#rPs or$it in t*e ?il03 W#3 4ust not $e too l#r2eF ot*erwiseF t*e
in'lux r#te o' !o4ets 'ro4 t*e >ort !lou< will $e too l#r2e <ue to t*e l#r2e ti<#l 'or!e v#ri#tions. ,*e s#4e e''e!t will o!!ur i' # st#r or$its too
!lose to t*e !enter o' t*e ?il03 W#3. 7ote t*#t t*ese '#!tors *#ve $een <is!usse< in t*e liter#ture #s t*e3 #ppl3 to E#rt*1li0e pl#nets. ,*e 4ost o'ten !ite< non1E#rt*1li0e environ4ent is # l#r2e 4oon
or$itin2 # Iupiter1li0e pl#net. 5u!* # $o<3 !#n <erive lon21ter4 *e#tin2 'ro4 its p#rent st#rF r#<io#!tive <e!#3F or ti<#l 'or!in2. ?ost o' t*e '#!tors liste< #$ove #lso #ppl3 to t*is 0in< o' s3ste4. )oweverF it
is less *ospit#$le to li'e 'or t*ree re#sons8 1C t*e stron2 2r#vit3 o' t*e Iovi#n pl#net will in!re#se t*e !*#n!e o' *i2*1velo!it3 !ollisions wit* !o4ets Bso4e o' t*e4 $re#0in21up li0e 5*oe4#0er1.ev3 ( <i< in
1((4CN 2C t*e 2r#vit#tion#l ti<#l 'or!in2 'ro4 t*e Iovi#n pl#net will Aui!0l3 le#< to or$it#l s3n!*roniE#tion o' t*e rot#tionN #n< 3C t*e stron2 r#<i#tion $elts o' t*e Iovi#n pl#net will su$Me!t its 4oons to *i2*
levels o' <#n2erous r#<i#tion. Even i' li'e #rose inF s#3F Europ#F it is # <e#<1en< streetN #n3 li'e t*ere is lo!0e< $ene#t* no less t*#n *un<re<s o' 4eters o' soli< i!eF #n< exposure to t*e sur'#!e woul< 0ill it
inst#ntl3. :er*#ps now we !#n $e2in to un<erst#n< w*3 t*e E," se#r!*es *#ve '#ile<. r. 5ulliv#nPs se#r!* o' t*e ?il03 W#3Ps !enter w#s $oun< to '#ilF even t*ou2* *e *#< # *u2e nu4$er o' t#r2etsN it is #
ver3 *ostile to li'e t*ere.
,*e O:rin!iple o' ?e<io!rit3O "n su44#r3F t*e e4piri!#l #ppro#!* is # power'ul #r2u4ent #2#inst 4ore t*#n # *#n<'ul o' Bor even
EeroC E," existin2 in t*e ?il03 W#3 over its entire *istor3. "t #voi<s 4#n3 #ssu4ptions in*erent in t*e t*eoreti!#l #ppro#!*
Bt*eolo2i!#lF ori2in o' li'eF surviv#$ilit3F et!.C. ,*e t*eoreti!#l #ppro#!* provi<es #n #nswer to t*e !on!lusion t*#t t*e
e4piri!#l #r2u4ent le#<s us to. W*#t is not !le#r is w*et*er #n3 one #strop*3si!#l '#!tor <o4in#tes over t*e ot*ers. ,*ose '#!tors t*#t #re si4ult#neousl3 positive #n< ne2#tive in t*eir
in'luen!e on li'e Au#li'3 #s <o4in#nt '#!tors. For ex#4pleF t*e r#te o' !o4et i4p#!ts 4ust $e su''i!ientl3 *i2* to suppl3 t*e E#rt* wit* w#ter #n< ot*er vol#tiles $ut not so *i2* so #s to le#< to # run#w#3
2reen*ouse B'ro4 ex!essive 6>osu$ 2o $uil<upC #n< to eli4in#te t*e *i2*er li'e 'or4s too o'tenN t*is reAuires # 'inel3 tune< s3ste4 unli0el3 to $e en!ountere< ver3 o'ten. ,*e 2re#t <ist#n!es sep#r#tin2
2#l#xies in t*e universe pro$#$l3 pre!lu<e inter2#l#!ti! tr#velF so we !#nnot 4#0e 'ir4 st#te4ents li'e in ot*er 2#l#xies 'ro4 t*e e4piri!#l #ppro#!* $3 itsel'. For t*is extr#pol#tion we 4ust rel3 on t*e
#strop*3si!#l '#!tors #lone.
70
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 EA"B%I=E/%I$E 7O!3IIO!S "A"E
Earth-ike con.itions are uniIue 4 no a-iens 4 consensus is on our si.e
,*e >$server 9// B;o$in ?!+ieF 5!ien!e E<itorF JW*en it !o4es to intelli2ent li'eF we9re #s 2oo< #s it 2etsLF Iul3 16F ./7C
WE A;E #lone. ?#n0in< 4#3 $e t*e sole intelli2ent o!!upier o' t*e entire 2#l#x3F #!!or<in2 to # 2rowin2 nu4$er o'
s!ientists involve< in t*e 5e#r!* 'or Extr#terrestri#l "ntelli2en!e B5etiC. A'ter <e!#<es o' e4plo3in2 r#<io teles!opes in v#in
$i<s to *e#r E.,. p*onin2 *o4eF #n< #'ter stu<3in2 p#tterns o' evolution on E#rt*F t*e3 $elieve t*#t !o4plexF $r#in3
extr#terrestri#ls 4ust $e r#reF i' not non1existent. .i'e 4#3 $e u$iAuitousF t*e3 #<4itF $ut onl3 on our pl#net <i< it evolve
into $ein2s !#p#$le o' r#tion#l t*ou2*tF sop*isti!#te< $e*#viour #n< power'ul !ivilis#tions. >n ot*er worl<sF it *#s re4#ine<
roote< #t t*e level o' #4oe$#sF 4i!ro$esF #n< pri4itive pon< li'e. All #liens #re s!u4F in ot*er wor<s #n o$serv#tion wit*
!ru!i#l i4pli!#tions. As U+ #strono4er "#n 6r#w'or< points out in t*e l#test issue o' 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#nF we 4#3 $e Pt*e
4ost #<v#n!e< li'e1'or4s in t*e 2#l#x3P. PWe use< to t*in0 t*#t on!e li'e e4er2e< on # pl#netF intelli2ent $ein2s woul<
inevit#$l3 #ppe#rFP #<<e< r "#n ?orisonF <ire!tor o' 5eti rese#r!* #t @rit#inPs Io<rell @#n0 r#<io teles!ope. P7owF it see4s
we onl3 evolve< t*#n0s to #n extr#or<in#r3 series o' 'ortuitous events.P ,*e 'irst #n< 4ost i4port#nt o' t*ese lu!03 $re#0s
!on!erns lo!#tionF #s #strono4ers :eter W#r< #n< on#l< @rownlee re!entl3 reve#le< in ;#re E#rt*8 W*3 6o4plex .i'e is
Un!o44on in t*e Universe B6operni!usC. E#rt* '#r 'ro4 $ein2 #n #ver#2e worl< in #n uni4port#nt p#rt o' t*e !os4os turns
out to $e pri4e 2#l#!ti! re#l est#te. FirstF our sun is # *i2*l3 st#$le st#r #n< is un#''e!te< $3 wil< 'lu!tu#tions in output o' its
r#<i#tion. 5u!* #''li!tions e4#n#te 'ro4 4#n3 ot*er st#rs #n< woul< <estro3 evolvin2 #<v#n!e< li'e1'or4sF #llowin2 onl3
$#!teri#1li0e entities to 'louris*. "n #<<itionF ours is # s#'e su$ur$#n p#rt o' t*e 2#l#x3F t*e #strono4i!#l eAuiv#lent o'
6*elten*#4. @3 !ontr#stF in 4ore !row<e<F P<own1townP 2#l#!ti! nei2*$our*oo<sF in stell#r 5#u!*ie*#ll 5treets o' t*e
universeF Mostlin2 st#rs #re li0el3 to *#ve !ontinu#ll3 <islo<2e< t*e sw#t*es o' !o4ets $elieve< to *over #t t*e e<2es o' 4ost
sol#r s3ste4s. ,*ese !o4ets woul< t*en *#ve !r#s*e< into e#!* st#rPs '#4il3 o' pl#nets wit* <ev#st#tin2 !onseAuen!es 'or
t*eir evolvin2 li'e1'or4s. "n #<<itionF E#rt* *#s # pl#net#r3 $i2 $rot*erF IupiterF w*i!* sweeps up t*ose 'ew <#n2erous
!o4ets t*#t <o 4#0e it t*rou2* to t*e sol#r s3ste4Ps inner re2ionsF w*ile our worl< is 'urt*er $lesse< in *#vin2 # rel#tivel3
l#r2e 4oon w*i!* *elpe< st#$ilise E#rt*Ps rot#tionF preventin2 wil< swin2s in our se#sons #n< !li4#te. All t*ese i4pro$#$le
!on<itionsF in !o4$in#tionF provi<e< t*e st#$ilit3 t*#t #llowe< 'our1$illion13e#r1ol< pri4itive sli4e to evolve #$out 25/F///
3e#rs #2o into t*e onl3 intelli2ent !re#tures 0nown to s!ien!eF ourselves. )u4#nit3 4#3 t*ere'ore $e viewe< #s t*e out!o4e
o' t*e $i22est #!!u4ul#tor $et in t*e universe. As :ro'essor @rownleeF o' W#s*in2ton Universit3F 5e#ttleF puts it8 PE#rt* is #
!*#r4e< pl#!e. We 0now o' no ot*er $o<3 t*#t is even re4otel3 li0e it.P
Earth-ike con.itions are rare 4 e2en i* the0 are co66on 4 uniIue circu6stances 6ake inte--igent -i*e possi1-e that
are un-ike-0 to e+ist e-sewhere
6r#w'or< in 9// B"#nF :ro'essor o' Astrono43 #n< :*3si!s #t Universit3 6olle2e in .on<onF 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#nF JW*ere
Are ,*e3K ?#3$e We Are Alone "n t*e =#l#x3 A'ter AllLF Iul3F -olu4e 2&3F "ssue 1F p. 3&143C
,o 43 4in<F t*e *istor3 o' li'e on E#rt* su22ests # 4ore !onvin!in2 expl#n#tion. .ivin2 t*in2s *#ve existe< *ere #l4ost 'ro4 t*e $e2innin2F $ut 4ulti!ellul#r #ni4#l li'e <i< not #ppe#r until #$out %//
4illion 3e#rs #2o. For 4ore t*#n t*ree $illion 3e#rsF E#rt* w#s in*#$ite< solel3 $3 sin2le1!elle< 4i!roor2#nis4s. ,*is ti4e l#2
see4s to i4pl3 t*#t t*e evolution o' #n3t*in2 4ore !o4pli!#te< t*#n # sin2le !ell is unli0el3. ,*usF t*e tr#nsition to
4ulti!elle< #ni4#ls 4i2*t o!!ur on onl3 # tin3 'r#!tion o' t*e 4illions o' pl#nets t*#t #re in*#$ite< $3 sin2le1!elle<
or2#nis4s. "t !oul< $e #r2ue< t*#t t*e lon2 solitu<e o' t*e $#!teri# w#s si4pl3 # ne!ess#r3 pre!ursor to t*e eventu#l
#ppe#r#n!e o' #ni4#l li'e on E#rt*. :er*#ps it too0 t*is lon2T#n< will t#0e # !o4p#r#$le len2t* o' ti4e on ot*er in*#$ite<
pl#netsT'or $#!teri#l p*otos3nt*esis to pro<u!e t*e Au#ntities o' #t4osp*eri! ox32en reAuire< $3 4ore !o4plex 'or4s o'
li'e. @ut even i' 4ulti!elle< li'e1'or4s <o eventu#ll3 #rise on #ll li'e $e#rin2 pl#netsF it still <oes not 'ollow t*#t t*ese will
inevit#$l3 le#< to intelli2ent !re#turesF still less to te!*nolo2i!#l !iviliE#tions. As pointe< out $3 5tep*en I#3 =oul< in *is
$oo0 Won<er'ul .i'eF t*e evolution o' intelli2ent li'e <epen<s on # *ost o' essenti#ll3 r#n<o4 environ4ent#l in'luen!es.
,*is !ontin2en!3 is illustr#te< 4ost !le#rl3 $3 t*e '#te o' t*e <inos#urs. ,*e3 <o4in#te< t*is pl#net 'or 14/ 4illion 3e#rs
3et never <evelope< # te!*nolo2i!#l !iviliE#tion. Wit*out t*eir extin!tionF t*e result o' # !*#n!e eventF evolution#r3 *istor3
woul< *#ve $een ver3 <i''erent. ,*e evolution o' intelli2ent li'e on E#rt* *#s reste< on # l#r2e nu4$er o' !*#n!e eventsF #t
le#st so4e o' w*i!* *#< # ver3 low pro$#$ilit3. "n 1(&3 p*3si!ist @r#n<on 6#rter !on!lu<e< t*#t J!iviliE#tions !o4p#r#$le
wit* our own #re li0el3 to $e ex!ee<in2l3 r#reF even i' lo!#tions #s '#vor#$le #s our own #re o' !o44on o!!urren!e in t*e
2#l#x3.L
71
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 EA"B%I=E/%I$E 7O!3IIO!S "A"E
7on.itions *or inte--igent -i*e are rare 4 un-ike-0 to *or6 outsi.e the earth
6olu4$us isp#t!* B>*ioC in V//
B#vi< .oreF J."+E.")>> >F A."E7 ."FE W"7.E5F ;E5EA;6)E;5 5AGLF I#nu#r3 3/F ./7C
urin2 t*e 1((/sF # nu4$er o' <is!overies pointe< tow#r<s extr#terrestri#l li'e. 7A5A s!ientists !l#i4e< evi<en!e in # 4eteorite t*#t 'ell 'ro4 ?#rs.
Astrono4ers reporte< in<ire!t evi<en!e o' #$out 2/ pl#nets outsi<e our sol#r s3ste4F $#se< upon sli2*t wo$$les in t*e 4ove4ent o' <ist#nt st#rs. ;e!onn#iss#n!e o' t*e Iovi#n #n< 5#turni#n s3ste4s 'oun<
in<i!#tions o' liAui< se#s on t*e 4oons Europ# #n< ,it#n. ,wo reports t*is 4ont*F *oweverF t*row !ol< w#ter on su!* e#s3 opti4is4. An
intern#tion#l 2roup o' s!ientists loo0in2 'or evi<en!e o' pl#net#r3 s3ste4s 'or4e< 4ore or less li0e ours *#s !o4e up
e4pt31*#n<e<. A'ter 'ive 3e#rsF t*e :.A7E, te#4 B:ro$in2 .ensin2 Ano4#lies 7E,wor0C *#s 3et to spot our 'irst twin. At t*e s#4e ti4eF two Universit3 o' W#s*in2ton s!ientists !onten< t*#t
#ni4#ls #n< people 4#3 well $e uniAue to E#rt*F 2iven t*e !o4plex set o' !on<itions ne!ess#r3 'or t*eir evolution. ,*e :.A7E, report is surprisin2F 2iven t*e r#s* o' extr#sol#r pl#net#r3 O si2*tin2sPP in
re!ent 3e#rs. "t w#s presente< <urin2 t*is 4ont*Ps A4eri!#n Astrono4i!#l 5o!iet3 4eetin2 in Atl#nt# $3 >5U 2r#<u#te stu<ent 5!ott =#u<i. Wo$$le1w#t!*ers #re seein2 evi<en!e o' ver3 l#r2e pl#nets 11
Iupiter1siEe or $i22er 11 *u22in2 !lose to t*eir st#rs in or$its rese4$lin2 t*ose o' ?er!ur3 or -enus. ,*e :.A7E, 2roupF *oweverF 'oun< not*in2 w*en it !o4$e<
ne#r$3 st#rs 'or evi<en!e o' Iupiter1s!#le pl#nets in '#r or$itsF t*e p#ttern weP< expe!t 'ro4 our sol#r s3ste4. O,*e '#!t t*#t
wePre not <ete!tin2 #n3 pl#nets $i22er t*#n Iupiter Bin Iupiterli0e or$itsC pro$#$l3 in<i!#tes t*#t t*ere #renPt 4#n3 Iupiters
out t*ereFPP =#u<i s#i<. An< t*#tPs $#< news 'or t*e se#r!* 'or extr#terrestri#l intelli2en!e. "n t*e evolution o' t*e sol#r
s3ste4F Iupiter li0el3 s*iel<e< E#rt* 'ro4 $o4$#r<4ent $3 !o4etsF #llowin2 li'e to evolveF s#i< >5U #strono4er An<rew =oul<. ,*e W#s*in2ton s!ientistsF
#strono4er on#l< @rownlee #n< p#leontolo2ist :eter W#r<F s#3 in ;#re E#rt* t*#t t*is is in<ee< t*e =#r<en o' E<en. O,*e E#rt* is # ver3 !*#r4e< pl#netFPP W#r< s#i<. OWe 0now o' no ot*er $o<3 t*#t is
even re4otel3 li0e E#rt*.PP :ri4itive li'e 4#3 $e wi<espre#< in t*e universeF $ut t*e o<<s o' its evolution into *i2*er 'or4s #re st#22erin2l3 lowF t*e3 write. FirstF t*e sol#r s3ste4 *#< to $e
in # prote!te< #re# o' t*e ?il03 W#3. ,*en E#rt*F Iupiter #n< our 4oon *#ve to $e t*e ri2*t siEes #n< in t*e ri2*t positions
to pro<u!e # te4per#te environ4ent wit* se#son#l !*#n2es $ut no !o4ets. >nl3 t*us !oul< li'e evolve 'ro4 sli4e to
s!ientist over 3 $illion or 4 $illion 3e#rs. OGou nee< to *#ve # v#st #4ount o' ti4e to let evolution r#4p up to #ni4#lsF #n<
we t*in0 t*ere #re onl3 # s4#ll nu4$er o' pl#nets w*ere t*#t !oul< *#ppenFPP W#r< s#i<. 7o Aliens ,oo ?#n3 6on<itions For .i'e Alien li'e <oesn9t
existTtoo 4#n3 unli0el3 events li0e 2ene 4ut#tions 4ust o!!ur 'or intelli2ent li'e to 'or4 F#l!oniF writerF p*3si!ist #n< !onsult#nt in !o4putin2 #n< ele!tro1
opti!sF 1(&1 B>s!#rF J,*e 6#se 'or 5p#!e 6oloniE#tionT7owR1#n< w*3 it s*oul< $e our 2ener#tion9s j1 priorit3FL
*ttp8//nutri.!o4/sp#!e/C ]Ever3 $it o' li'e on e#rt*F $e it pl#nt or #ni4#lF $#!teri# or w*#leF 4onosexu#l or $isexu#lF is
i<enti!#l in t*e <eepest sense in t*#t t*e3 #ll use nu!lei! #!i<s 'or stor#2e #n< tr#ns4ission o' *ere<it#r3 in'or4#tion. All
or2#nis4s use t*e s#4e $#si! 2eneti! !o<e. All use proteins in t*eir 4et#$oli! pro!esses. ,*e stru!ture o' *u4#n sper4
!ells is #l4ost i<enti!#l wit* p#r#4e!i#. "tPs <i''i!ult to es!#pe t*e !on!lusion t*#t #ll li'e on e#rt* evolve< 'ro4 one sin2le
inst#n!e o' t*e ori2in o' li'e. 7ow #$out t*#t sin2le inst#n!e 1 t*#t !*#n!e !o4$in#tion o' !*e4i!#ls 1 it #l4ost !ert#inl3 *#ppene< onl3 on!e on t*e e#rt*Ps sur'#!e in #ll t*ose $illions o'
3e#rs. "t w#s !le#rl3 # ver3 'ortuitous eventF possi$l3 never <upli!#te< in #ll t*e universe. "n l#$s t*e worl< overF 4#n3 #re tr3in2 to <upli!#te it in ver3 i<e#l !on<itions. 5!ientists #re inMe!tin2 into se#le<
!ont#iners #ll sorts o' !o4$in#tions o' #4ino #!i<sN #44oni#N w#terN 2#sesN *e#tN sp#r0sN U-F 2#44# #n< p#rti!le r#<i#tionN 1 w*#tever t*e3 !#n !onMure up. ,*e3Pve !o4e up wit* interestin2 or2#ni!sF so4e
si4ple proteinsF $ut !ert#inl3 not*in2 even !losel3 rese4$lin2 t*e 4ost pri4itive 'or4 o' 4onosexu#l li'e. Even w*en t*is 4onosexu#l li'e #ppe#re< on e#rt*F #not*er 2i#nt step *#< to $e t#0en8 $isexu#l li'e
*#< to $e !re#te<. A 4onosexu#l spe!iesF t*ou2* it un<er2oes 4ut#tionF !#n i4prove its spe!ies onl3 #t # ver3 slow r#te. ?ut#tions 4ust t#0e pl#!e seri#ll3F w*ere#s wit* # $isexu#l spe!iesF 4ut#tions in
<i''erent 4e4$ers !#n $ot* $e p#sse< on into t*e o''sprin2. ,*us i4prove4ent $3 4ut#tion #n< sele!tion !#n t#0e pl#!e in $isexu#l spe!ies #t r#tes 4#n3 or<ers o' 4#2nitu<e '#ster t*#n in 4onosexu#l
spe!ies. "n or<er 'or #<v#n!e< 'or4s o' li'e to #ppe#r on e#rt*F # $isexu#l spe!ies *#< to #ppe#r. ,*is is no 4e#n t#s0 #n< 4ust $e !onsi<ere< #not*er ver3 'ortuitous event in 4#nPs !re#tion. >ne !oul<
4#0e # lon2 list o' ver3 i4pro$#$le 4ut#tions ne!ess#r3 'or #n intelli2ent spe!ies8 *#n<s t*#t 2r#spF le2s t*#t tr#nsportF
si2*tF *e#rin2F spee!*F et!.F plus t*#t one lu!03 <evelop4ent in t*e $r#in t*#t <i''erenti#tes us 'ro4 t*e #pes. @ut 'or t*#t
one 4ut#tion we !oul< *#ve $een spen<in2 t*e next ten $illion 3e#rs 'or#2in2F 2roo4in2F #n< swin2in2 'ro4 trees. @e!#use
o' t*e lon2 seAuen!e o' $ene'i!i#l 4ut#tions reAuire<F intelli2ent li'e 4#3 not $e #s u$iAuitous t*rou2*out t*e universe #s
4ost t*in0. "' li'e is so e#sil3 !re#te<F #n< so e#sil3 <evelopsF spont#neousl3F #ll over t*e universeF t*en8 W*3 isnPt t*ere #n3
in<i!#tion t*#t li'e on e#rt* <evelope< 'ro4 #n3t*in2 $ut >7E ver3 lu!03 $e2innin2K W*3 <onPt we see unt3pi!#l li'e'or4s
spont#neousl3 <evelopin2 in our worl< t*#tPs so overrun wit* or2#ni! 4#tter K W*3 !#nPt 4#n 4#nu'#!ture li'e even un<er
ver3 #rti'i!i#ll3 !on<u!ive !on<itionsK W*3 <o onl3 t*e '#4ili#r !#r$on1$#se< #4ino #!i<s #n< si4ple proteins ever result
'ro4 4#nPs #tte4pt to !re#te li'e in # M#rK App#rentl3 t*ese !o4poun<s #re t*e >7.G $uil<in2 $lo!0s t*#t !oul< ever result
in li'e #n3w*ere in t*e universe. ,*#t Must one p#t* is #v#il#$le 'or li'e to evolve is in<ee< # severe !onstr#int. 5o inste#< o' t*e
5t#nle3 ?iller experi4ents provin2 *ow e#s3 it is to !re#te li'eF t*e3 *#ve in '#!t #<<e< #not*er li4it#tionF #not*er i4pe<i4entF to t*e possi$ilit3 o' #n3 ot*er li'e in t*e universeF #n< *#ve #<<e< one 4ore
#r2u4ent to $#!0 up t*ose o' us w*o 'eel t*e pro$#$ilit3 o' our uniAueness is Auite 2oo<. W*3 *#venPt we ever $een !ont#!te<F visite<F inv#<e<F or !oloniEe<
$3 #ll t*is ot*er li'e t*#tPs suppose< to existK W*3 *#ve #ll #tte4pts $3 A4eri!#nsF 6#n#<i#nsF #n< ;ussi#ns to <ete!t r#<io
si2n#ls 'ro4 extr#terrestri#l $ein2s $een 'ruitlessK BOW*ere #re t*e3KO #s0e< Fer4i.CW*3 *#ve our -i0in2 " #n< -i0in2 "" 4issions !o4pletel3 '#ile< in t*eir se#r!* 'or li'e
on ?#rsK W*3F out o' 4ore t*#n 2F///F/// spe!ies o' li'e on e#rt*F *#s onl3 one B4#nC su!!ee<e< in <evelopin2 *is $r#in #n< *is !ulture to su!* #n #<v#n!e< <e2reeK ,*e #nswer to #ll t*ese
Auestions is t*#t li'e Must isnPt #ll t*#t e#s3 to !o4e $3F p#rti!ul#rl3 intelli2ent li'e. ,oo 4#n3 extre4el3 'ortuitous events
#n< !on<itions #ll 4ust *#ve t#0en pl#!eF t*e li0es o' w*i!* 4#3 never *#ve $een <upli!#te< in #ll sp#!e #n< #ll ti4e. ,*e
'#!t t*#t t*ere is # !o4plete l#!0 o' #n3 in<i!#tion o' #n3 ot*er intelli2ent li'e *#s le< ,rinit3 Universit3Ps r ?i!*#el )#rtF
usin2 # !lever #n< lo2i!#l line o' re#sonin2F to !on!lu<e t*#t we #re uniAue 1 #t le#st in our own 2#l#x3. BDu#rt. Iour. ;o3#l
Astr. 5o!.F 1(%5C )e *#s #lso s*own t*#t 4ost !l#sses o' st#rs #renPt !#p#$le o' 4#int#inin2 # lu4inosit3 !onst#nt enou2*F
'or # perio< o' ti4e lon2 enou2*F to en#$le li'e to <evelop to #n intelli2ent level. Even our own sun w#s $#rel3 #$le to
Au#li'3. "' t*e e#rt* were Must 5^ !loser to t*e sunF or 1^ '#rt*er #w#3F 4#n0in< !oul< not *#ve evolve<.k
72
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 !O E@I3E!7E M$E"MI5S PA"A3O?N
At -east one a-ien ci2i-i<ation wou-. tra2e- 4 their tota- a1sence pro2es the0 .on5t e+ist
i!0 in V(6
B5tevenF 6*ie' )istori#n 'or 7A5AF J,*e @iolo2i!#l Universe8 ,*e ,wentiet*16entur3 Extr#terrestri#l .i'e
e$#te #n< t*e .i4its o' 5!ien!eLF p. 4431444C
,*e ori2in o' t*e !risis w#s renewe< #ttention to # Auestion !#su#ll3 r#ise< $3 t*e pioneerin2 nu!le#r p*3si!ist Enri!o Fer4i #l4ost 1/ 3e#rs $e'ore t*e 4o<ern er# o' 5E,". urin2 # lun!*eon wit*
!olle#2ues #t .os Al#4os in 1(5/F Fer4i *#< si4pl3 #s0e<F O"' t*ere #re extr#terrestri#lsF w*ere #re t*e3KO # Auestion t*#t now $e!#4e 0nown #s ,*e OFer4i :#r#<ox.O(3 UF> $elievers woul< *#ve
#nswere< wit*out *esit#tionbt*#t t*e extr#terrestri#ls were *ere T t*e3 *#< 0nown it #ll #lon2 T #n< per*#ps it w#s in p#rt t*e reput#tion o' t*is 2roup t*#t 0ept s!ientists 'ro4 pursuin2 t*e Fer4i Auestion
'or 25 3e#rs. ,*#t in 1(%5 t*e issue w#s r#ise< in 'or!e'ul 'or4 in two in<epen<ent #rti!les in t*e Unite< 5t#tes #n< @rit#inF wit*out #t le#st one o' t*e #ut*ors 0nowin2 #$out Fer4iPs !#su#l AuestionF is so4e
in<i!#tion o' t*e 'or!e o' its lo2i!. ,*e '#!t t*#t t*ere #re no intelli2ent $ein2s 'ro4 outer sp#!e on E#rt* nowF #r2ue< ?i!*#el )#rt #n<
#vi< -iewin2 in t*eir respe!tive #rti!lesF is #n o$serv#tion#l '#!t t*#t #r2ues stron2l3 t*#t extr#terrestri#ls <o not exist.(4
,*e $#sis 'or t*is !on!lusion w#s t*e #ssertion t*#t interstell#r tr#vel w#s possi$le #'ter #llF !ouple< wit* #ttention to t*e
ti4e s!#les involve<. ,*e pessi4isti! views o' t*ose li0e :ur!ellF )#rt !l#i4e<F were $#se< on rel#tivisti! sp#!e'li2*tN t*e
use o' nu!le#r propulsion #t s#3F 1/1/t* t*e spee< o' li2*t woul< *#ve 4u!* 4ore re#son#$le ener23 reAuire4ents.(5 =iven
t*e #2e o' t*e universe #n< t*e ti4e nee<e< 'or intelli2en!e to <evelopF )#rt #n< -iewin2 st#te<F extr#terrestri#ls s*oul<
*#ve popul#te< t*e 2#l#x3. At # velo!it3 o' 1/1/t* t*e spee< o' li2*tF )#rt #r2ue<F t*is woul< *#ve o!!urre< in # 4ere i
4illion 3e#rs. )#vin2 #<<resse< t*e p*3si!#l #r2u4ent #2#inst interstell#r 'li2*tF )#rt went on to #r2ue #2#inst so!iolo2i!#l
#n< te4por#l !onsi<er#tions #n< to reMe!t t*e view t*#t extr#terrestri#ls were *ere now. All so!iolo2i!#l #r2u4ents T t*#t
#<v#n!e< !iviliE#tions en2#2e in spiritu#l !onte4pl#tion r#t*er t*#n sp#!e explor#tionF t*#t t*e3 <estro3 t*e4selvesF or t*#t
t*e3 set #si<e pl#nets li0e t*e E#rt* #s wil<li'e preserves T )#rt 'elt were #nswere< $e!#use in or<er to $e e''e!tive t*e3
woul< *#ve to #ppl3 to ever3 r#!e in t*e 2#l#x3 #t #ll ti4esF #n unre#son#$le #ssu4ption. "' onl3 one r#!e survive<F it !oul<
*#ve !oloniEe< t*e 2#l#x3 2iven t*e ti4e s!#les involve<. "n -iewin2Ps wor<sF O,*isF t*enF is t*e p#r#<ox8 #ll our lo2i!F #ll
our #ntiiso!entris4F #ssures us t*#t we #re not uniAue T t*#t t*e3 4ust $e t*ere. An< 3et we <o not see t*e4.O(6 ,*usF
)#rt !on!lu<e<F t*e existen!e o' t*ous#n<s o' !iviliE#tions in t*e =#l#x3 is Auite i4pl#usi$le8 Ot*ou2* it is possi$le t*#t one or two !iviliE#tions
*#ve evolve< #n< *#ve <estro3e< t*e4selves in # nu!le#r w#rF it is i4pl#usi$le t*#t ever3 one o' 1/F/// #lien !iviliE#tions *#< <one so.O An< t*ere 4i2*t $e # 'ew #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tions t*#t !*ose never to
tr#velF $ut Ot*eir nu4$er s*oul< $e s4#llF #n< !oul< well $e Eero.O ,*e $otto4 lineF i' t*is r#tion#le *el<F w#s t*#t O#n extensive.se#r!* 'or r#<io 4ess#2es 'ro4 ot*er !iviliE#tions is pro$#$l3 # w#ste o' ti4e
#n< 4one3.O(%
"ocket techno-og0 an. @on !eu6ann pro1es pro2e an0 a-iens wou-. ha2e reache. our so-ar s0ste6 4 the a1sence o*
such e2i.ence 6athe6atica--0 pro2es we are a-one
i!0 in V(6
B5tevenF 6*ie' )istori#n 'or 7A5AF J,*e @iolo2i!#l Universe8 ,*e ,wentiet*16entur3 Extr#terrestri#l .i'e
e$#te #n< t*e .i4its o' 5!ien!eLF p. 446144%C
Even #s t*e OW*ere Are ,*e3KO !on'eren!e p#rti!ip#nts were 2#t*erin2 in 6olle2e :#r0F ?#r3l#n<F 4#t*e4#ti!#l p*3si!ist Fr#n0 ,ipler w#s puttin2 t*e 'inis*in2 tou!*es on #n #rti!le t*#t woul< en!#psul#te
t*e opposition views to 5E,"F t#0in2 t*e extre4e position t*#t t*e #r2u4ents were so !o4pellin2 t*#t it w#s # w#ste o' t#xp#3ersP 4one3 to un<ert#0e # se#r!*. ,o2et*er wit* t*e ?#r3l#n< !on'eren!eF
,iplerPs #rti!ul#te #r2u4ents #n< !ontroversi#l extre4e st#n!e 4#r0e< # turn#$out in t*e 'or1tunes o' 5E,"F # turn#$out 2iven wi<e !ir!ul#tion in t*e press. =ivin2 <ue !re<it to Fer4iF 3sonF )#rtF #n<
ot*ers w*o *#< pre!e<e< *i4F ,ipler 'elt t*#t t*e 'or!e o' t*eir #r2u4ents *#< not $een #ppre!i#te<F #n< *e <eli2*te< in turnin2 t*e
5E," proponentsP own #r2u4ents #2#inst t*e4. An3 !iviliE#tion t*#t *#< <evelope< t*e te!*nolo23 'or interstell#r
!o44uni!#tionF *e #r2ue<F 4ust #lso *#ve <evelope< t*e te!*nolo23 'or interstell#r tr#vel. ,*e ru<i4ents o' ro!0et
te!*nolo23F #'ter #llF were <evelope< lon2 $e'ore t*e existen!e o' r#<io w#ves w#s expe!te<. ?ore1overF #n3 spe!ies
!#p#$le o' interstell#r !o44uni!#tion woul< #lso $e #<ept #t !o4puter te!*nolo23 #n< woul< *#ve <evelope< O# sel'1
repli!#tin2 univers#l !onstru!tor wit* intelli2en!e !o4p#r#$le to t*e *u4#n levelFO so4et*in2 so4e experts on E#rt*
expe!te< wit*in # !entur3. 5u!* # 4#!*ine woul< *#ve explore< or !oloniEe< t*e =#l#x3 wit*in 3// 4illion 3e#rsF *e
#r2ue<F #t # !ost less t*#n t*#t o' oper#tin2 # 4i!row#ve $e#!on 'or sever#l *un<re< 3e#rsF #s 5E," #<vo!#tes postul#te< #lien !iviliE#tions 4i2*t
<o.1/5 "n or<er to 4#0e 4#xi4u4 use o' t*e resour!es o' t*e ot*er stell#r s3ste4s $ein2 explore<F ,ipler propose< t*e univers#l !onstru!torF O# 4#!*ine !#p#$le o' 4#0in2 #n3 <evi!eF 2iven t*e
!onstru!tion 4#teri#ls #n< # !onstru!tion pro2r#4FO # so1!#lle< von 7eu4#nn 4#!*ineF sin!e t*e 4#t*e4#ti!i#n Io*n von 7eu4#nn *#< 'irst <is!usse< it in t*eoreti!#l ter4s in 1(66. ,*e 4ost i4port#nt
<evi!e it woul< 4#0e out o' t*e r#w 4#teri#ls o' #steroi<s #n< ot*er <e$ris 'oun< in t*e stell#r s3ste4 woul< $e !opies o' itsel'F w*i!* woul< t*en $e l#un!*e< to t*e ne#rest st#rsF onl3 to repe#t t*e
pro!ess until t*e =#l#x3 w#s 'ull o' su!* pro$es. Even wit* velo!ities # 'ew 1//1///t*s t*e spee< o' li2*t Bt*e spee< o' t*e -o3#2er sp#!e!r#'t
le#vin2 t*e sol#r s3ste4CF e#!* interstell#r trip woul< reAuire less t*#n 1//F/// 3e#rsF #n< t*e entire =#l#x3 woul< $e 'ull o'
pro$es in 3// 4illion 3e#rs. Furt*er4oreF ,ipler #r2ue<F i' one #!!epts t*e o$serv#tion#l '#!t t*#t no tr#!es o'
extr#terrestri#l intelli2en!e #re evi<ent in our pl#net#r3 s3ste4F t*is pl#!es #n O#strop*3si!#l !onstr#intO on t*e evolution o'
intelli2ent spe!ies. "' t*e =#l#x3 is #$out 15 $illion 3e#rs ol<F #s is usu#ll3 st#te<F t*en twi!e #s 4#n3 st#rs 'or4e< $e'ore
t*e 5un <i<. ,*is is #pproxi4#tel3 eAuiv#lent to 1// $illion Bor 1/o11C st#rs so t*#t t*e pro$#$ilit3 t*#t intelli2en!e will
evolve is 1 <ivi<e< $3 t*#t nu4$erF or 1/111. @ut sin!e t*e nu4$er o' st#rs $orn sin!e t*e 5un w#s 'or4e< is #lso 1/o11F
t*e nu4$er o' !iviliE#tions in t*e =#l#x3 is one ours.PO
7&
2009
A.2ance. ci2i-i<ations wou-. ha2e the 6eans an. 6oti2e to co-oni<e 4 the0 shou-. 1e here 10 now
=onE#leE in V(&
B=uiller4oF Astrono4er #t Universit3 o' W#s*in2ton F 5o!iet3F JExtr#terrestri#ls8 A 4o<ern viewLF Iul3/Au2ustF
-olu4e 35F "ssue 5F :roAuestC
@#si!#ll3F t*ere #re two w#3s o' #ppro#!*in2 t*e E," Auestion B#s in #l4ost #n3 'iel< o' stu<3C8 e4piri!#ll3 #n< t*eoreti!#ll3. ,*e e4piri!#l #ppro#!* is en!#psul#te< 4ost su!!in!tl3 in Enri!o Fer4iPs
'#4ous AuestionF OW*ere #re t*e3KO 7ew4#n #n< 5#2#n in 1(%( #tte4pte< to #nswer Fer4iPs Auestion $3 !l#i4in2 t*#t t*ere *#s not $een su''i!ient ti4e 'or # sp#!e'#rin2 !iviliE#tion to !oloniEe t*e ?il03
W#3. ,*e3 $#se< t*is on # si4ple 4o<el o' 2#l#!ti! !oloniE#tion not unli0e t*ose use< to <es!ri$e t*e !oloniE#tion o' t*e :#!i'i! isl#n<s Bex!ept t*#t 2#l#!ti! !oloniE#tion will $e # less r#n<o4 pro!essC. "n
1(&1 Fr#n0 ,ipler o' ,ul#ne Universit3 pointe< out sever#l pro$le4s wit* 7ew4#n #n< 5#2#nPs #n#l3sis #n< !l#i4e< t*#t t*e true
!oloniE#tion ti4e s!#le is 4u!* less t*#n t*e #2e o' t*e ?il03 W#3. )e Auote< # ti4e s!#le o' no 4ore t*#n 3// 4illion
3e#rs. ?ore re!entl3F "#n 6r#w'or< in # 1((% p#per in Astrono43 #n< =eop*3si!s Auote< v#lues o' 5 to 5/ 4illion 3e#rs 'or t*e !oloniE#tion ti4e s!#leF si4il#r to ot*er re!ent esti4#tes. >ne
4i2*t o$Me!t t*#t t*e resour!es reAuire< 'or un<ert#0in2 # 2#l#!ti! s!#le !oloniE#tion Bor explor#tionC #re #strono4i!#ll3
*u2eR A2#inF Fr#n0 ,ipler provi<e< #n #nswer to t*is o$Me!tion. )e #r2ue< ver3 !leverl3 t*#t # te!*nolo2i!#l !iviliE#tionF
on!e it <evelops t*e #$ilit3 to sen< # pro$e wit* # -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine to # nei2*$orin2 pl#net#r3 s3ste4F !#n !oloniEe
t*e ?il03 W#3 '#irl3 e#sil3. A -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine $uil<s !opies o' itsel' usin2 #v#il#$le r#w 4#teri#ls #n< !#rries out spe!i'ie< t#s0s. )u4#n $ein2s #re n#tur#l versions o' t*e -on
7eu4#nn 4#!*ine !on!ept. ,*e 'irst proto1-on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine 4#3 *#ve #lre#<3 $een $uiltN t*e 26 5epte4$er 1((% issue o' 5!ien!e reporte< t*e
!onstru!tion o' t*e 'irst tin3 Osel'1rep#irin2F sel'1repli!#tin2 version o' # spe!i#liEe< !o4puter.O 6ert#inl3F t*e still 'le<2lin2 'iel< o' 4ole!ul#r n#note!*nolo23 $e#rs !lose w#t!*in2 B7A5A *#s #lre#<3
expresse< interestC. ,*e ?#rs :#t*'in<er 4i2*t #lso $e !onsi<ere< #s # tin3 B$ut si2ni'i!#ntC $#$3 step tow#r<s t*e eventu#l !onstru!tion o' # -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine in t*#t it !#n per'or4 !o4plex
oper#tions wit*out <ire!t #n< i44e<i#te *u4#n 2ui<#n!e. ,*e -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine #ppro#!* to !oloniE#tion <oes not reAuire ver3 4u!*
invest4ent in resour!esF sin!e #l4ost #ll o' it is spent on t*e 'irst pro$e. "t nee< not $e ver3 l#r2e11Must !#p#$le o' $uil<in2 # -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine t*#t !#n
#sse4$le !opies o' itsel' #n< sen<in2 t*e4 o'' in interstell#r s*ips. 5u$seAuent pro$es will <r#w on t*e n#tur#l resour!es o' t*e worl<s t*e3 visitF #n< e#!* newl3 explore< s3ste4 $e!o4es t*e $#se 'ro4
w*i!* new 4issions <ep#rt. "n #<<ition to returnin2 v#lu#$le in'or4#tion #$out ot*er pl#net#r3 s3ste4sF -on 7eu4#nn pro$es !#n re<u!e t*e !ost o' eventu#l *u4#n
!oloniE#tion $3 prep#rin2 suit#$le pl#net#r3 s3ste4s 'or *#$it#tion #n< sen<in2 $#!0 interstell#r s*ips prep#re< 'or 4#nne<
sp#!e'li2*t11# sort o' interstell#r 'err3 s3ste4. ,*e !onstru!tion o' t*e 'irst interstell#r pro$e B!#p#$le o' $uil<in2 # -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ineC will li0el3 $e # spin1o'' o' #uto4#te< 4inin2 #!tivities in
t*e 5ol#r 53ste4. =iven t*e <#n2ers o' wor0in2 in t*e sp#!e environ4ent #n< t*e lon21ter4 isol#tion o' wor0ers 'ro4 E#rt* Bs#3F in t*e #steroi< $elt $etween ?#rs #n< IupiterCF t*e 4otiv#tion to #uto4#te
extr#terrestri#l 4inin2 will $e 2re#tF ver3 li0el3 resultin2 in rel#tivel3 4inor <evelop4ent !osts 'or t*e 'irst -on 7eu4#nn 4#!*ine. )en!eF t*e !riti!is4 t*#t #n #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tion 4i2*t l#!0 t*e
4otiv#tion to !oloniEe ot*er worl<s is ren<ere< unli0el3F #s interstell#r tr#vel is # rel#tivel3 s4#ll step #'ter o''1worl< 4inin2 is #!*ieve<. 7oti!e t*#t # !iviliE#tion nee< not 4#int#in #
lon21ter4 interest in interstell#r tr#velN on!e t*e 'irst pro$e is sent outF explor#tion #n< !oloniE#tion is e''e!tivel3 #uto4#ti!.
I* e+traterrestria-s e+iste. the0 shou-. 1e in the so-ar s0ste6 4 their a1sence pro2es their none+istence
!ew Scientist in 59: M?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
>ne person w*o is !onvin!e< *e *#s t*e #nswer is Fr#n0 ,ipler o' ,ul#ne Universit3 in 7ew >rle#ns. O"' t*e ?#rti#n evi<en!e *ol<s upFO *e s#3sF Owe 4#3 *#ve to '#!e t*e '#!t t*#t pri4itive li'e is !o44on
in t*e Universe $ut t*#t t*e <evelop4ent o' intelli2en!e is v#stl3 i4pro$#$le.O "n '#!tF *e $elieves it is so '#nt#sti!#ll3 i4pro$#$le t*#t it *#s *#ppene< onl3 on!e sin!e t*e $i2 $#n2. O" $elieve we #re
t*e ver3 'irst intelli2en!e to #rise in our =#l#x3FO *e s#3s.?#2#Eine ,*is extr#or<in#r3 !l#i4 is $#se< on # str#i2*t'orw#r< !o4p#rison $etween t*e #2e o' our
=#l#x3 #n< *ow lon2 it woul< t#0e # !ivilis#tion !#p#$le o' interstell#r tr#vel to explore #n< !olonise it. A!!or<in2 to ,iplerF su!* # !olonis#tion woul< $e #!*ieve<
4ost e''i!ientl3 $3 <isp#t!*in2 sel'1repro<u!in2 pro$es to t*e st#rs. ,*e !on!ept o' sel'1repro<u!in2 pro$es w#s <evelope< $#!0 in t*e 1(5/s $3 Io*n von
7eu4#nnF # )un2#ri#n1A4eri!#n 4#t*e4#ti!i#n. >n #rriv#l #t # st#rF t*e von 7eu4#nn pro$es woul< use t*e #v#il#$le resour!es to $uil< #n< l#un!* !opies o' t*e4selves. O>ne pro$e woul< $e!o4e twoF
two woul< $e!o4e 'ourF #n< so onFO s#3s ,ipler. O"n t*is w#3F t*e3 woul< proli'er#te exponenti#ll3.O >' !ourseF 3ou !oul< #r2ue t*#t i' pro$es li0e t*ese popul#te< t*e =#l#x3F t*#t woul< $e ver3 <i''erent
'ro4 'in<in2 li'e. )oweverF ,ipler 4#0es no <istin!tion $etween t*e put#tive extr#terrestri#ls #n< t*eir ro$ot e4iss#ries. ,*e pro$es woul< nee< to $e *i2*l3 intelli2ent #n< !#p#$le o' usin2 t*e 4#teri#l #n<
ener23 resour!es in t*eir environ4ent to repro<u!e. "n # senseF t*e3 woul< $e li'e 'or4s in t*eir own ri2*tF 'les* 4#<e 4#!*ineF #n< t*e sp#!e1'#rin2 su!!essors o' pl#net1$#se< li'e. A!!or<in2 to
,iplerF t*e $i22est o$st#!le to !re#tin2 von 7eu4#nn pro$es is !o4puter te!*nolo23. O,*e pro$es woul< nee< to *#ve #t
le#st *u4#n1level intelli2en!eFO *e s#3s. ,*e3 woul< #lso *#ve to $e '#st. @ut tr#vellin2 #t (/ per !ent o' t*e spee< o' li2*t
woul< not $e $e3on< t*e !#p#$ilities o' #n #<v#n!e< !ivilis#tionF s#3s ,ipler. ,r#vellin2 #t su!* # spee<F # pro$e woul<
t#0e #$out 'ive 3e#rs to re#!* # st#r 4.3 li2*t 3e#rs #w#3 1 t*e <ist#n!e $etween t*e 5un #n< its ne#rest nei2*$ourF Alp*#
6ent#uri. "' t*e pro$e t#0esF s#3F 1// 3e#rs to 4#0e # !op3 o' itsel'F t*en t*e #ver#2e spee< #t w*i!* #ll pro$es woul<
spre#< t*rou2*out t*e =#l#x3 woul< $e #$out 1/25t* t*e spee< o' li2*t. At su!* # spee<F t*e explor#tion o' t*e =#l#x3F
w*i!* is rou2*l3 1// /// li2*t 3e#rs #!rossF woul< t#0e #$out 3 4illion 3e#rs. Even tr#vellin2 #t t*e spee< o' !urrent
ro!0etsF it woul< t#0e onl3 3// 4illion 3e#rs to explore ever3 !orner o' t*e =#l#x3 #n< 4#int#in # $#se #roun< e#!* st#r.
.on2 over<ue O,*e ti4e nee<e< to explore t*e =#l#x3 is *u2el3 less t*#n t*e #2e o' t*e =#l#x3F w*i!* is #roun< 1/ $illion
3e#rsFO s#3s ,ipler. O5oF i' extr#terrestri#ls existF t*e3 s*oul< $e *ere in t*e 5ol#r 53ste4 to<#3. 5in!e t*e3Pre o$viousl3 notF
t*e3 <onPt exist.O
78
2009
A-- reso-utions to $er6i5s para.o+ are insu**icient 4 i* a-iens e+ist we wou-. ha2e e2i.ence 4 this pro2es there is no
inte--igent -i*e out there
7raw*or. in 500 B"#nF :ro'essor o' Astrono43 #n< :*3si!s #t Universit3 6olle2e in .on<onF 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#nF JW*ere
Are ,*e3K ?#3$e We Are Alone "n t*e =#l#x3 A'ter AllLF Iul3F -olu4e 2&3F "ssue 1F p. 3&143C
,*ere #re onl3 'our !on!eiv#$le w#3s o' re!on!ilin2 t*e #$sen!e o' E,s wit* t*e wi<el3 *el< view t*#t #<v#n!e<
!iviliE#tions #re !o44on. :er*#ps interstell#r sp#!e'li2*t is in'e#si$leF in w*i!* !#se E,s !oul< never *#ve !o4e *ere even
i' t*e3 *#< w#nte< to. :er*#ps E, !iviliE#tions #re in<ee< #!tivel3 explorin2 t*e 2#l#x3 $ut *#ve not re#!*e< us 3et.
:er*#ps interstell#r tr#vel is 'e#si$leF $ut E,s !*oose not to un<ert#0e it. >r per*#ps E,s *#ve $eenF or still #reF #!tive in
E#rt*9s vi!init3 $ut *#ve <e!i<e< not to inter'ere wit* us . "' we !#n eli4in#te e#!* o' t*ese expl#n#tions o' t*e Fer4i :#r#<oxF we will *#ve to '#!e t*e possi$ilit3 t*#t
we #re t*e 4ost #<v#n!e< li'e1'or4s in t*e 2#l#x3. ,*e 'irst expl#n#tion !le#rl3 '#ils. 7o 0nown prin!iple o' p*3si!s or en2ineerin2 rules out interstell#r
sp#!e'li2*t. Even in t*ese e#rl3 <#3s o' t*e sp#!e #2eF en2ineers *#ve envis#2e< propulsion str#te2ies t*#t 4i2*t re#!* 1/ to 2/ per!ent o'
t*e spee< o' li2*tF t*ere$3 per4ittin2 tr#vel to ne#r$3 st#rs in # 4#tter o' <e!#<es [see J;e#!*in2 'or t*e 5t#rsFL $3 5tep*#nie . .ei'erN 5!ienti'i! A4eri!#nF Fe$ru#r3 1(((]. For t*e s#4e
re#sonF t*e se!on< expl#n#tion is pro$le4#ti! #s well. An3 !iviliE#tion wit* #<v#n!e< ro!0et te!*nolo23 woul< $e #$le to !oloniEe t*e
entire 2#l#x3 on # !os4i!#ll3 s*ort ti4es!#le. For ex#4pleF !onsi<er # !iviliE#tion t*#t sen<s !olonists to # 'ew o' t*e pl#net#r3 s3ste4s !losest to it. A'ter t*ose !olonies *#ve
est#$lis*e< t*e4selvesF t*e3 sen< out se!on<#r3 !olonies o' t*eir ownF #n< so on. ,*e nu4$er o' !olonies 2rows exponenti#ll3. A !oloniE#tion w#ve 'ront will 4ove outw#r<
wit* # spee< <eter4ine< $3 t*e spee< o' t*e st#rs*ips #n< $3 t*e ti4e reAuire< $3 e#!* !olon3 to est#$lis* itsel'. 7ew settle4ents will Aui!0l3 'ill in t*e volu4e o' sp#!e $e*in< t*is w#ve 'ront [see
illustr#tion on next p#2e]. Assu4in2 # t3pi!#l !olon3 sp#!in2 o' 1/ li2*t13e#rsF # s*ip spee< o' 1/ per!ent t*#t o' li2*tF #n< # perio< o' 4// 3e#rs $etween t*e 'oun<#tion o' # !olon3 #n< its sen<in2 out
!olonies o' its ownF t*e !oloniE#tion w#ve 'ront will exp#n< #t #n #ver#2e spee< o' /./2 li2*t13e#r # 3e#r. As t*e 2#l#x3 is 1//F/// li2*t13e#rs #!rossF it t#0es no 4ore
t*#n #$out 'ive 4illion 3e#rs to !oloniEe it !o4pletel3. ,*ou2* # lon2 ti4e in *u4#n ter4sF t*is is onl3 /./5 per!ent o' t*e #2e o' t*e 2#l#x3. 6o4p#re< wit* t*e ot*er
relev#nt #strono4i!#l #n< $iolo2i!#l ti4es!#lesF it is essenti#ll3 inst#nt#neous. ,*e 2re#test un!ert#int3 is t*e ti4e reAuire< 'or # !olon3 to est#$lis* itsel' #n< sp#wn new settle4ents. A re#son#$le upper
li4it 4i2*t $e 5F/// 3e#rsF t*e ti4e it *#s t#0en *u4#n !iviliE#tion to <evelop 'ro4 t*e e#rliest !ities to sp#!e1 'li2*t. "n t*#t !#seF 'ull 2#l#!ti! !oloniE#tion woul< t#0e #$out 5/ 4illion 3e#rs. ,*e
i4pli!#tion is !le#r8 t*e 'irst te!*nolo2i!#l !iviliE#tion wit* t*e #$ilit3 #n< t*e in!lin#tion to !oloniEe t*e 2#l#x3 !oul< *#ve
<one so $e'ore #n3 !o4petitors even *#< # !*#n!e to evolve. "n prin!ipleF t*is !oul< *#ve *#ppene< $illions o' 3e#rs #2oF w*en E#rt* w#s in*#$ite< solel3 $3
4i!roor2#nis4s #n< w#s wi<e open to inter'eren!e 'ro4 outsi<e. Get no p*3si!#l #rti'#!tF no !*e4i!#l tr#!esF no o$vious $iolo2i!#l in'luen!e in<i!#tes t*#t it
*#s ever $een intru<e< upon. Even i' E#rt* w#s <eli$er#tel3 see<e< wit* li'eF #s so4e s!ientists *#ve spe!ul#te<F it *#s $een le't #lone
sin!e t*en. "t 'ollows t*#t #n3 #tte4pt to resolve t*e Fer4i :#r#<ox 4ust rel3 on #ssu4ptions #$out t*e $e*#vior o' ot*er !iviliE#tions. For
ex#4pleF t*e3 4i2*t <estro3 t*e4selves 'irstF t*e3 4i2*t *#ve no interest in !oloniEin2 t*e 2#l#x3F or t*e3 4i2*t *#ve stron2 et*i!#l !o<es #2#inst inter'erin2 wit* pri4itive li'e1'or4s. ?#n3 5E,"
rese#r!*ersF #s well #s ot*ers w*o #re !onvin!e< t*#t E, !iviliE#tions 4ust $e !o44onF ten< to <is4iss t*e i4pli!#tions o'
t*e Fer4i :#r#<ox $3 #n un!riti!#l #ppe#l to one or 4ore o' t*ese so!iolo2i!#l !onsi<er#tions. @ut t*e3 '#!e # 'un<#4ent#l pro$le4.
,*ese #tte4pte< expl#n#tions #re pl#usi$le onl3 i' t*e nu4$er o' extr#terrestri#l !iviliE#tions is s4#ll. "' t*e 2#l#x3 *#s !ont#ine<
4illions or $illions o' te!*nolo2i!#l !iviliE#tionsF it see4s ver3 unli0el3 t*#t t*e3 woul< #ll <estro3 t*e4selvesF $e !ontent wit* #
se<ent#r3 existen!eF or #2ree on t*e s#4e set o' et*i!#l rules 'or t*e tre#t4ent o' less <evelope< 'or4s o' li'e. "t woul< t#0e onl3 one
te!*nolo2i!#l !iviliE#tion to e4$#r0F 'or w*#tever re#sonF on # pro2r#4 o' 2#l#!ti! !oloniE#tion. "n<ee<F t*e onl3 te!*nolo2i!#l
!iviliE#tion we #!tu#ll3 0now #n3t*in2 #$outTn#4el3F our ownT*#s 3et to sel'1<estru!tF s*ows ever3 si2n o' $ein2 exp#nsionistF #n< is not espe!i#ll3 reti!ent #$out
inter'erin2 wit* ot*er livin2 t*in2s. espite t*e v#stness o' t*e en<e#vorF " t*in0 we !#n i<enti'3 # nu4$er o' re#sons w*3 # pro2r#4 o' interstell#r !oloniE#tion is #!tu#ll3 Auite li0el3. For oneF # spe!ies wit*
# propensit3 to !oloniEe woul< enMo3 evolution#r3 #<v#nt#2es on its *o4e pl#netF #n< it is not <i''i!ult to i4#2ine t*is $iolo2i!#l in*erit#n!e $ein2 !#rrie< over into # sp#!e1#2e !ulture. ?oreoverF
!oloniE#tion 4i2*t $e un<ert#0en 'or politi!#lF reli2ious or s!ienti'i! re#sons. ,*e l#st see4s espe!i#ll3 pro$#$le i' we !onsi<er t*#t t*e 'irst !iviliE#tion to
evolve woul<F $3 <e'initionF $e #lone in t*e 2#l#x3. All its 5E," se#r!*es woul< prove ne2#tiveF #n< it 4i2*t initi#te # pro2r#4 o' s3ste4#ti! interstell#r explor#tion to 'in< out w*3.
E .oesn5t e+ist 4 i* a-iens were an0where in the U!I@E"SE the0 wou-. 1e here
!ew Scientist in 59: B?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
@ut i' t*e Eoo *3pot*esis #n< ot*er su22estions to expl#in w*3 t*e 5ol#r 53ste4 *#s st#3e< resolutel3 o'' t*e interstell#r
tourist 4#p #re #ll un<er4ine< $3 t*e lo2i! o' <iversit3 #n< exponenti#l exp#nsionF w*#t #$out ot*erF 4ore 'un<#4ent#l
re#sons 'or t*e #$sen!e o' extr#terrestri#lsK >ne possi$ilit3F #!!or<in2 to 5*ost#0F is t*#t it si4pl3 t#0es too 4u!* ener23 to
propel #n interstell#r pro$e $etween t*e st#rs #t #n #ppre!i#$le 'r#!tion o' t*e spee< o' li2*t. ,ipler <is4isses t*is #s # we#0
#r2u4ent. O" woul< re4in< ever3one o' t*e pro4inent A4eri!#n #strono4er 5i4on 7ew!o4$F w*o in 1(/4 Pprove<P t*#t
*e#vier1t*#n1#ir ve*i!les woul< reAuire too 4u!* ener23 to $e pr#!ti!#lFO *e s#3s. ,ipler $elieves t*#t #n #<v#n!e<
!ivilis#tion woul< 'in< interstell#r tr#vel e#s3. O"n '#!tF wePve #lre#<3 l#un!*e< interstell#r pro$es 1 :ioneer 1/ #n< 11FO *e s#3s. O,*e3Pve
#lre#<3 p#sse< :luto #n< !oul< re#!* t*e ne#rest st#r in #$out &/ /// 3e#rs. ,*is *#s !ontroversi#l i4pli!#tions 'or 5E,"F w*i!* involves loo0in2 'or intelli2ent r#<io or opti!#l $ro#<!#sts 'ro4 ne#r$3 st#rs.
O"' extr#terrestri#ls sent # r#<io si2n#lF t*e3 woul< *#ve to trust t*#t t*ere woul< $e so4eone #t t*e ot*er en< wit* t*e ne!ess#r3 eAuip4ent #n< p#tien!e to listenFO s#3s ,ipler. OA '#r 4ore e''i!ient str#te23
woul< $e to sen< # sp#!es*ip.O ,ipler s#3s t*e s#4e lo2i! woul< #ppl3 i'F inste#< o' r#<io w#vesF extr#terrestri#ls si2n#lle< wit* 2r#vit3 w#ves or neutrinosF # su22estion 4#<e $3 W#lter 5i44ons #n< *is
!olle#2ues #t t*e Universit3 o' )#w#ii in 1((4 B Du#rterl3 Iourn#l o' t*e ;o3#l Astrono4i!#l 5o!iet3F vol 35F p 321C. OW*#tever w#3 3ou loo0 #t itF 5E," is # w#ste o' ti4eFO *e s#3s.
7ot*in2F it #ppe#rsF !#n <e'le!t ,ipler 'ro4 *is #l4ost 4essi#ni! !onvi!tion t*#t we #re #lone in t*e =#l#x3. An< *e 2oes 'urt*er. For t*e irresisti$le lo2i! o' exponenti#l exp#nsion i4plies t*#t i' #n
intelli2ent r#!e *#< #risen #n3w*ere in !re#tionF it woul< *#ve #rrive< in t*e 5ol#r 53ste4 $3 now. O7ot onl3 #re we t*e 'irst intelli2en!e to evolve in our =#l#x3F
we #re t*e 'irst intelli2en!e to evolve in t*e w*ole UniverseFO s#3s ,ipler. OWe #re tot#ll3 #lone.O
7;
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 A2H BEI" E@I3E!7E WOU%3!5 AE !OI7IA%E
E2i.ence wou-. 1e noticea1-e 4 the Oort c-ou. an. asteroi. 1e-t wou-.n5t e+ist i* E .i.
7ew 5!ientist in V(6
B?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
Un<erst#n<#$l3F ot*er s!ientists #re relu!t#nt to #!!ept t*#t we #re #lone in t*e Universe. 5o4e s#3 ,ipler is pre4#ture in
!l#i4in2 t*ere #re no extr#terrestri#ls in our $#!03#r<. O"tPs i4possi$le to tellFO s#3s E<w#r< )#rrison o' t*e Universit3 o'
?#ss#!*usetts #t A4*erst. O,*e evi<en!e o' li'e 4#3 $e written #!ross t*e s03 #n< we 4#3 si4pl3 not re!o2nise it.O ?#n3
ot*ers s*#re )#rrisonPs view t*#t t*e #$sen!e o' evi<en!e is not ne!ess#ril3 evi<en!e o' #$sen!e. O,*e w*ole point is we
<onPt 0now w*et*er t*e3Pre out t*ere or notFO s#3s Free4#n 3son o' t*e "nstitute 'or A<v#n!e< 5tu<ies in :rin!eton. 5o4e
s!ientists point out t*#t extr#terrestri#ls !oul< $e *ere wit*out ever lettin2 on. O5#3 t*ere were n#nopro$es #$ro#< in t*e
5ol#r 53ste4FO s#3s 5et* 5*ost#0 o' t*e 5E," "nstitute in ?ount#in -iewF 6#li'orni#. O)ow woul< we ever 0nowKO
)oweverF ,ipler !l#i4s t*#t i' t*e 5ol#r 53ste4 *#< $een visite< t*e si2ns woul< $e un4ist#0#$le. O,*ere woul< $e no >ort
6lou< o' !o4ets #n< no #steroi< $eltFO *e s#3s. OAll t*e #v#il#$le resour!es woul< *#ve $een turne< into stru!tures.O
,iplerPs i<e# is t*#tF on #rrivin2 #t # new st#r s3ste4F # von 7eu4#nn pro$e woul< not Must 4#0e !opies o' itsel' to sen< to
ot*er st#rsF $ut it woul< #lso exploit #ll t*e #v#il#$le 4iner#l #n< ener23 resour!es o' t*e st#r s3ste4. "n our 5ol#r 53ste4F
'or inst#n!eF t*e !o4ets in t*e >ort 6lou< #n< t*e #steroi<s in t*e #steroi< $elt woul< $e o$vious sour!es o' 4iner#lsF
w*i!* is w*3 ,ipler $elieves t*e3 woul< $e lon2 2one i' extr#terrestri#ls *#< ever visite<. )e *#s no i<e# w*#t 0in< o'
te!*nolo2i!#l #rte'#!ts su!* resour!es woul< $e use< to !re#teF $ut t*#tPs not unre#son#$le. A'ter #llF t*e ;o4#ns woul<
*#ve *#< no i<e# t*#t 'uture !ivilis#tions woul< turn s#n< into !o4putersF or $#uxite into #eropl#nes. ,*e <is#ppe#r#n!e o'
resour!es is # lo2i!#l !onseAuen!e o' ,iplerPs O$iolo2i!#lO 4o<el 'or interstell#r !olonis#tionF in w*i!* li'ePs su!!ess in
'illin2 #ll #v#il#$le ni!*es #n< exploitin2 #ll #v#il#$le resour!es on E#rt* is repe#te< $3 intelli2ent li'e in t*e 2re#ter #ren#
o' t*e Universe.
7:
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 A2H DOU A!B"OPOMO"PBIUE
E2o-ution wou-. 1e uni2ersa- 4 .on5t nee. to assu6e E is -ike hu6ans
7ew 5!ientist in V(6
B?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
>t*ersF li0e )#rrisonF $elieve t*ere is # 'un<#4ent#l error in ,iplerPs $iolo2i!#l 4o<el o' t*e exp#nsion o' intelli2ent li'e.
O"t #ssu4es t*#t extr#terrestri#ls s*#re t*e 4otiv#tions o' *u4#nsFO *e s#3s. O)oweverF li'e 4#3 evolve to # level $e3on<
i4#2in#tion #n< its 4otiv#tions 4#3 $e utterl3 in!o4pre*ensi$le to us.O
,ipler !ounters t*#t *e #ssu4es onl3 t*#t intelli2ent li'e 'or4s $e*#ve li0e #ll 0nown li'e 'or4s on E#rt*F #ll o' w*i!* 2o
t*rou2* # <ispers#l p*#se. )e s#3s it is ti4e #strono4ers #<4itte< t*#t intelli2ent li'e is su$Me!t to t*e s#4e evolution#r3
l#ws #s ot*er li'e.
77
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 A2H WE5"E A UOO
We5re not a <oo
Con<a-e< in 599 B=uiller4oF Astrono4er #t Universit3 o' W#s*in2ton F 5o!iet3F JExtr#terrestri#ls8 A 4o<ern viewLF
Iul3/Au2ustF -olu4e 35F "ssue 5F :roAuestC
Anot*er propose< solution to Fer4iPs p#r#<ox is t*e i<e# t*#t t*e E#rt* is $ein2 isol#te< #s # 0in< o' OEoo.O ?i!*#el )#rtF
#n< 4ore re!entl3F "#n 6r#w'or<F *#ve pointe< out # nu4$er o' ver3 serious pro$le4s wit* t*is line o' re#sonin2. For
ex#4pleF 'or 4ost o' its *istor3 t*e E#rt* *#s $een in*#$ite< $3 si4ple li'e'or4sF #n< t*us t*ere s*oul< *#ve $een little
in!entive to isol#te it until rel#tivel3 re!entl3. Even i' # !iviliE#tion w#nte< to 0eep t*e E#rt* isol#te<F it woul< *#ve to <o
so 'or $illions o' 3e#rsF 0eepin2 ot*er !iviliE#tions #w#3. ,*is <oes not see4 #t #ll li0el3. -er3 re!ent visit#tion is #lso
unli0el3 on te4por#l 2roun<s8 w*3 #'ter $illions o' 3e#rs woul< two #<v#n!e< !iviliE#tions Bours #n< one ot*erC #rise
ne#rl3 si4ult#neousl3 in t*e ?il03 W#3K
Uoo h0pothesis is ri.icu-ous
!ew Scientist in 9(6 B?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
Get #not*er possi$le expl#n#tion 'or t*e #$sen!e o' extr#terrestri#ls is t*e OEoo *3pot*esisO. A!!or<in2 to t*is *3pot*esisF
e4er2in2 !ivilis#tions su!* #s ours #re !or<one< o'' $3 st#r1'#rin2 !ivilis#tions o' t*e =#l#x3 #s p#rt o' # 5t#r ,re01li0e
non1inter'eren!e poli!3. @utF #!!or<in2 to ,iplerF t*is i<e# #lso *#s its A!*illes *eel. O"tPs # univers#l trut* in *u4#n so!iet3
t*#t i' 3ou *#ve t*ree 4e4$ers o' # so!iet3F 3ou will *#ve 'our opinionsFO *e s#3s. O,*ere will inevit#$l3 $e # <iversit3 o'
opinion #4on2 =#l#!ti! so!ieties #$out w*et*er we s*oul< $e !ont#!te< or not.O ,ipler #lso $elieves it woul< $e i4possi$le
to en'or!e su!* # non1inter'eren!e poli!3. O"t woul< $e ne!ess#r3 to p#trol t*e peri4eter o' t*e 5ol#r 53ste4FO *e s#3s.
OEven li2*t $e#4s woul< *#ve to $e stoppe< 'ro4 enterin2.O "t is *#r< to i4#2ine t*e existen!e o' # !o*erent =#l#x31wi<e
so!iet3 w*en it t#0es 1// /// 3e#rs 'or # !o44uni!#tions si2n#l to !ross 'ro4 one si<e to t*e ot*er. @ut i' t*e
extr#terrestri#ls !oul< !o44uni!#te '#ster t*#n t*e spee< o' li2*tF t*en per*#ps t*e so!iet3 !oul< en'or!e # non1inter'eren!e
poli!3F #s pointe< out l#st 3e#r $3 "#n 6r#w'or< o' Universit3 6olle2e .on<on. B Du#rterl3 Iourn#l o' t*e ;o3#l
Astrono4i!#l 5o!iet3F vol 36F p 2/5C. )oweverF t*ere re4#ins t*e serious pro$le4 o' 4#int#inin2 #n unw#verin2 poli!3
over 4illions or 4#3$e *un<re<s o' 4illions o' 3e#rsF w*en t*e lesson 'ro4 E#rt* is t*#t no so!iet3 st#3s un!*#n2e<
'orever.
79
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 A2H BED BA!C OU I! I!E"ESI!C PA"S O$ BE CA%A?D
E2en i* a-iens chi-- in coo- p-aces their e2i.ence wou-. 1e here
!ew Scientist in 59: B?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
Assu4in2 t*#t ,iplerPs #r2u4ent is v#li<F t*ose w*o oppose *is !ontention t*#t we #re #lone 4ust expl#in *ow t*e =#l#x3
!#n $e tee4in2 wit* !olonisin2 !ivilis#tions wit*out #n3 en<in2 up in our ne!0 o' t*e woo<s. >ne possi$ilit3F #!!or<in2 to
5*ost#0F is t*#t t*e 5ol#r 53ste4 is too <ull. O)u4#nsF <espite !olonisin2 t*e E#rt*F #re not ever3w*ere on t*e pl#net 1 t*e3
#re !on!entr#te< in !itiesFO s#3s 5*ost#0. O"n t*e s#4e w#3F extr#terrestri#ls 4#3 $e !on!entr#te< in t*e interestin2 pl#!es in
t*e ?il03 W#3 1 t*e =#l#!ti! !entreF 2i#nt 4ole!ul#r !lou<sF 2i#nt st#r !lustersF #n< so on.O Even i' *u4#ns #re not
ever3w*ere on E#rt*F s#3s ,iplerF t*e e''e!ts o' t*eir #!tivities #re seen ever3w*ere on E#rt*F #n< 4i!roor2#nis4s #re
u$iAuitous.
79
2009
!O A%IE!S 4 A2H BED =I%% BEMSE%@ES
E2en i* 6ost ci2i-i<ations go =urt 7o1ain st0-e a *ew shou-. ha2e sur2i2e. to 2isit earth
7ew 5!ientist in 9(6 B?#r!us 6*ownF J"s t*ere #n3$o<3 out t*ereKLF 7ove4$er 23F ./7C
>t*er possi$le expl#n#tions 'or t*e #$sen!e o' extr#terrestri#ls in our nei2*$our*oo< in!lu<e t*e Osel'1<estru!tion
*3pot*esisO #n< t*e O!onte4pl#tion *3pot*esisO. A!!or<in2 to t*e sel'1<estru!tion *3pot*esisF !ivilis#tions $low t*e4selves
up or ot*erwise !o44it sui!i<e $e'ore t*e3 !#n tr#vel to ot*er st#rs. ,*e !onte4pl#tion *3pot*esis st#tes t*#t 4#ture
!ivilis#tions 2row out o' t*e #<oles!ent ur2e to !oloniseF pre'errin2 inste#< to st#3 #t *o4e #n< explore t*e 'rontiers o' #rtF
per*#psF or !onte4pl#te t*e 4e#nin2 o' li'e. )oweverF #ll t*ese possi$ilities su''er 'ro4 t*e s#4e 'l#w. O,e!*nolo2i!#l
!ivilis#tions #re li0el3 to $e <iverse Must li0e livin2 or2#nis4sFO s#3s ,ipler. O5oF even i' 4ost sel'1<estru!t or st#3 #t *o4e
to 2#Ee #t t*eir n#velsF t*ere will #lw#3s $e t*e ex!eptions. An< t*e ex!eptionsF $3 t*e lo2i! o' #rwini#n evolutionF #re
$oun< to !o4e our w#3.O "n t*e lon2 ter4F s#3s ,iplerF even extr#terrestri#ls wit* # ten<en!3 to $e !ou!* pot#toes will *#ve
to up sti!0s #n< 4ove on. OIust #s t*e 5un will turn into # re< 2i#nt #n< 'or!e us to le#ve t*e E#rt*F t*e st#rs o' #lien r#!es
will eventu#ll3 'or!e t*e4 to 2o 'ort* #n< !oloniseFO *e s#3s.
90

Michigan 7 Week Seniors Wipeout/2012 Answers 2009 1

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