SCIENCE The Cooling World There are ominous signs that the earth's weather pattems have begun to change dramatically and. that these ‘changes may portend a drastic decline in food produetion—with serious political implications for just about every nation arth. ‘The drop in food output could Bonen Taser iinpactare the great wheatproducing lands of Canada and the US inthe fh slong @ eed as ones al Selsufficienttropeal areas—pars of iia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina a catateste Wiens a genio Sons dependent upon the rans brought Pythemonsoon : vidence in support of these pre- dictions has pow begun to accumulate s0 masively tht wotsorolegts are bard two weoks sine overall loss in. grain aroun the equator on of @ degree—a fraction that in some areas can drought and desolation. Last April, inthe most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused halfabillion dollars’ worth of damage in thirteen U.S. state Tren disparate igns of fundan the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraprdinarily mild conditions, the vems to be cooling scientists, these seemingly disagree aboutthe cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on Toeal ‘weather conditions. But they are almost ‘unanimous inthe view thatthe trend will o4 reduce agricultural productivity for the restof the century. Iithe climatic change {sas profound as some of the pessimists fear, ‘the resulting famines ‘could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change ‘would force ceonomie and social adjust- ments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global pattems of food production and, population have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.” ‘A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanie and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of halfa degree in average ground temperatures in. the Northern Her suhere between 1045 and 1965, Accord- ingto ‘Kukla of Columbia Univer- sity, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northem Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72, And en 1964 and 1972. , the relativels changes canbe hight the University of Wisconsin points out that the earth's average temperatur ing the great Ice Ages was only abi degrees lower than during its warmest ‘enis—and that the present decline has taken the planet about 2 sixth of the way toward the Tee Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northem America between 1600 and 1900—years when the Thames used to freeze So solidly that Londoners roasted ‘oxen on the ice and when ieeboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York Cit ‘Just what causes the onset of majorand minor ice ages remains a mystery. “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of clim: fc change is atleastas fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Nat only are the basie scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know ‘enough to pose the key questions.” Extremes: Metcorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the sight crop overall temperature that produces lage | numbers of pressure centers inthe upper | atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this | ‘Way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, | extended dry spells, long freezes, de| layed monsoons andl even local tempera ture increases—all of which have adireat | impact on food supplies. “The world's food-producing system,” warns Dr. James D. MeQuigg of NOAM Senter for Climatic and Environmental is much more sensitive t lf fl Pon ere labled able than it was even the sweater v five years ago. of world populatioy jonal boundaries make i tomigrate fr i they did di ng past Climatolowists are pessimistic that Ital leaders. will tke aay. posltd action to compensate for the climati ‘change, or even toallay its effects. They ‘concede that some of the more specie ler solutions propesed, ch ss the arctic fee eap by covering i wil black soot or diverting arctic river inight ereate problems far greater than those they solve. But the sctentists seal few signs that government leaders any where are even prepared 10 take the imple measures of stockpiling food ord introducing the variables of climatic ute certuinty: into economic. projections df fature food supplies. ‘The longer the planners delay, the more difficult vil they find it tocone witha once the results become ‘ “PETER WIRE wehbe Newsweek, April 28, 1975