20th January 2014 | 1 A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 20th January 2014 | 2 Monday Mood of India The biggest question currently haunting the great Indian democracy is that who it will be to finally steal the show? Is it going to be a tough fight between two horses? Will a dark horse emerge? Or would it be simply a one-sided, smiling victory for a single party? With just about two months to go into the 14 th Lok Sabha Elections, the answers of such many questions are blowing in the wind. More interestingly, the situation is changing rapidly. As a result, what was last week a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP is now again back to its old self, with BJP led NDA emerging as a confident winner. The trend has been reflected in the results revealed in the current Monday Mood of India- 2, the unique, weekly opinion survey poll by Foreseegame.com. The last Monday Mood of India, dated 13 th January, 2014, stated that it was going to be a race between NDA and AAP. Last week, the newly emerged factor of AAP made an impressive entry and hit the Third Front and UPA hard. The emerging AAP even sent out warning signals to the BJP in states like Haryana. This week, however, the game is leveled with Narendra Modi and NDA back in the lead. So how does the picture look now? Is it going to be a strong and accountable government at the helm? Or is it going to churn out further surprises? The results revealed in Monday Mood of India- 2 are leaning towards the former. In this second set of questions, the Indian electorates have confirmed Narendra Modi as their choicest Prime Minister of India. 62% of the participants chose Modi, whereas, Arvind Kejriwals vote share has declined to just 9% as compared to last weeks 22%. It is a straight 13% loss for Kejriwal which does not speak too well about his future. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee has increased her vote to 15% as compared to last weeks 3%. So the loss of Arvind Kejriwal is a straight gain for Mamata Banerjee. And at the same time it speaks of those Indian voters who want to have a Prime Minister other than Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhis future too is bleak as his popularity as PM has gone down by further 2% as compared to his last weeks position. And which party is the Indian electorate going to choose as the next government? Well, here too BJP led NDA has emerged as the straight winner. As compared to last weeks 47%, this week 58% of the participants have chosen NDA as their favourite government, whereas Aam Aadmi Party has got 28% vote which is 9% down than its last week vote share. UPA this time has managed to retain its 10% vote. The swing is clear. The sudden magic spelled by Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Executive Summary A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 20th January 2014 | 3 Party has faded down considerably and the fact is reflected in Kejriwals personal vote bank. Only 9% of the participants have chosen him as the next Prime Minister despite his promise of a corruption less government. It indicates that the people of India wants a strong and accountable government able to take the country forward towards the road of development and not flowery promises. The picture will be certainly getting more interesting as 2014 Lok Sabha poll draws closer. Foreseegame.com is a unique portal of consumer engagement, which provides a platform for two way communication and engagement between the brand and the consumers through games of foresights. Microsec research is the research wing of Microsec Capital having experienced analysts across the sectors. We used the online feedback from the users of www.foreseegame.com. The users have been registered only on the basis of unique mobile numbers and hence, it provides authenticity and genuineness of the participants. The participation is being monitored by Google. About 34,000 participants have contributed from all parts of India; however the limitation of this sample is that it is from the group of people who are users of internet.
The Take Away Points: 1. Narendra Modi has once again gone ahead in the race. Compared to last weeks Monday Mood result, his vote percentage is up by 4% this week. But his prime contender for throne, Arvind Kejriwals result is not so promising. This week Kejriwal has managed to get only 9% vote in his favour compared to last weeks 22%. Rahul Gandhis bad spell continues as he is further down by 2%. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee has increased her vote to 15% as compared to last weeks 3%. So the loss of Arvind Kejriwal is a straight gain for Mamata Banerjee. And at the same time it speaks of those Indian voters who want to have a Prime Minister other than Narendra Modi. As before, Nitish Kumar and Mulayam Singh Yadav is nowhere in the race. The choice of Prime Minister suggests that the people of India has favoured a strong and accountable government. Narendra Modi has once again been successful to weave his magic whereas Arvind Kejriwal is faltering. The pro-BJP vote has remained with
Executive Summary A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 20th January 2014 | 4 Modi whereas, the anti-BJP vote has been snatched by Mamata Banerjee to a big extent. The gain for her is at the cost of AAP, Third Front and Congress.
2. The vote swing this week has changed considerably as compared to last week. The BJP led NDA has successfully slowed down the victory march of AAP by eating away 9% of the latters vote share. The other political parties too have lost further 2% vote to NDA. NDA, therefore, is up by 11% compared to last week. UPA, however, has managed to retain its marginal 10% vote.
3. The state-wise break up shows that Narendra Modi as the future Prime Minister and BJP led NDA is marching ahead in almost all the states compared to last weeks report. And the states where it is lagging behind, the difference is marginal. So in all probability, the people of India is getting ready to have a BJP led NDA government at the helm.
Let us wait for the next Monday Mood result to know the further change / swing. Executive Summary A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 20th January 2014 | 5 The Next Prime Minister of India 56% 10% 3% 3% 22% 2% 4% Graph 2: Survey Results as on 13 th January, 2014 Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee Nitish Kumar Arvind Kejriwal Mulayam Singh Yadav None of the above Narendra Modi has once again gone ahead in the race. Compared to last weeks Monday Mood result, his vote percentage is up by 6% this week. But his prime contender for throne, Arvind Kejriwals result is not so promising. This week Kejriwal has managed to gain only 9% vote in his favour compared to last weeks 22%. Rahul Gandhis bad spell continues as he is further down by 2%. Interestingly Mamata Banerjee has managed to increase her vote percentage by 12% compared to last week. Arvind Kejriwals loss is her direct gain.
The choice of Prime Minister suggests that the people of India has favoured a strong and accountable government. Narendra Modi has once again been successful to weave his magic whereas Arvind Kejriwal is faltering as he has lost 13% vote compared to last week. The pro-BJP vote has remained with Modi whereas, the anti- BJP vote has been snatched by Mamata Banerjee to a big extent. The gain for her is once again at the cost of AAP, Third Front and Congress. The Comparison Zone 62% 8% 15% 2% 9% 2% 2% Graph 1: Survey Results as on 20 th January, 2014 Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee Nitish Kumar Arvind Kejriwal Mulayam Singh Yadav None of the above A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 20th January 2014 | 6 The Share of Vote: NDA, UPA & AAP The vote swing this week has changed considerably as compared to last week. The BJP led NDA has successfully slowed down the victory march of AAP by eating away 9% of its vote share. The other political parties too have lost further 2% vote to NDA. NDA, therefore, is up by 11% compared to last week. UPA, however, has managed to retain its marginal 10% vote. 47% 37% 10% 6% BJP Led NDA Aam Aadmi Party Congress Led UPA Any other Graph 4: Survey Results as on 13 th January, 2014