1.

1

Chng 1

GII THIU CHUNG

1.1 I CNG V TIU TH V SN XUT NNG LNG TRN TH GII
Nhu cu tiu th nng lng ca nhn loi ngy mt tng cao, c lng tng nng lng tiu th
ton th gii nm 2010 khong 11,39 t TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent) v s tng n khong 13,71
t TOE vo nm 2020 (Hnh 1.1). Trong , hn 80% ngun cung nng lng ny l nhin liu
ho thch (kh t nhin, du th, than). Tuy nhin, tr lng cc ngun nhin liu ho thch trn
tri t l c gii hn, k c ngun uranium l nhin liu chnh cho nng lng ht nhn. Bng 2.1
cho tr lng c tnh ca cc ngun nhin liu ho thch chnh l than , du th v kh t
nhin v thi gian s dng c tnh cho cc ngun ny.

Hnh 1.1: Tiu th nng lng ton cu tnh theo TOE
Bng 1.2: Tr lng nhin liu ho thch trn th gii (s liu 2005 06)
Than
(Coal)
Du th
(Crude Oil)
Kh t nhin
(Natural Gas)
Tr lng 905 t tn 177.9 - 209 km
3
175181 ngn t m
3

Thi gian s dng 148 nm 43 nm 61 nm
1.2

(Vi tc s dng hin ti)
Thi gian s dng ti a 417 nm 43 nm 167 nm

in nng hin l loi nng lng th cp c s dng rt rng ri hin nay. Khong 40%
nng lng s cp tiu th trn th gii c dng vo vic sn xut in nng. Nhu cu in
nng ton th gii n 2010 l khong 19 ngn t kWh (15 trillion kWh). Bng 1.1 cho thy in
nng tiu th tng v bnh qun trn u ngi hng nm ca mt s nc trn th gii. Mc tng
nhu cu in nng bnh qun trn th gii l 2.6% / nm, ring i vi cc nc ang pht trin l
khong 5% / nm. Mt s cc quc gia c mc tng nhu cu in nng cao hn nhiu mc bnh
qun trn. V d, Trung Quc (hin l nc tiu th in nng ln nht trn th gii): 15%, n
: hn 10%.
Bng 1.2: Tiu th in nng trn th gii
Rank Country Electricity
consumption
(MWh/yr)
Year of
Data
Population Average
power per
capita (W)
World 19,320,360,620 2002-10 7,035,000,000 313
1 China 4,693,000,000 2011 1,347,350,000 397
2 USA 3,741,000,000 2009 312,884,000 1363
EU 3,037,000,000 2009 503,492,041 688
3 India 905,974,000 2010 1,210,193,422 85
4 Japan 859,700,000 2011 126,659,683 774
5 Russia 857,600,000 2008 143,100,000 683
6 Canada 549,500,000 2008 34,898,000 1795
7 Germany 544,500,000 2008 81,799,600 759
8 France 460,900,000 2008 65,350,000 804
8 Brazil 455,700,000 2010 192,376,496 270
10 South Korea 455,100,000 2011 50,004,441 1038
24 Thailand 131,600,000 2008 66,720,153 225
30 Vietnam 101,000,000 2011 91,519,289 126

1.3

Vic gia tng nhu cu tiu th in nng dn n nhu cu lp t thm cc ngun pht in
hng nm. Tuy nhin, ti nhiu quc gia, vic lp t cc nh my in mi tp trung hin nay
thng gp nhiu kh khn v vic tm a im xy dng nh my cng nh h thng truyn
ti. V d vic xy dng thm cc nh my in ht nhn hin nay thng gp kh khn do gi
thnh xy dng vt mc d ton v c th phi c cc iu chnh v thit k lin quan n an
ton trong qu trnh xy dng, hoc gp s phn i ca c dn ni t nh my. Ti M, t 1978
n nay khng c thm nh my in ht nhn no c xy dng thm. Tnh hnh cng tng t
ti mt s quc gia Chu u nh Php, c t nm 2010. Lu l tui th ca nh my in ht
nhn khong 40 nm, ngun cung in nng t cc nh my in ht nhn s gim mnh trong
tng lai khng xa, v ngun cung ny cn c b li bng cc nh my khc, v d nh nh my
in chy than. Tuy nhin, nh my in kiu ny li gp vn v kh thi, tr phi cng ngh t
than c ci tin sao cho sch hn. Vic xy dng thm cc nh my thu in mi c ln hin
cng ang vp phi s phn i mnh m ca nhiu cng ng v nhng nh hng v mi trng
v sinh thi do nhng d n ny gy ra.
1.2 TRIN VNG CA NNG LNG TI TO
Nhng vn v mi trng trong nhng nm gn y lm gia tng mnh m yu cu s dng
cc ngun nng lng ti to v bn vng khc nh nng lng t gi, mt tri, thu triu, thu
in nh, sinh khi (biomass) v a nhit. Nu trc thp nin 80, cc ngun nng lng ti to
ch c quan tm bi cc nh u t t nhn, th t nhng nm 90 tr li y, cc cng ty in
lc quan tm v u t nhiu hn cho cc nh my pht in s dng nng lng ti to, nht
l nng lng gi v nng lng mt tri, do cc u im:
C th lp t cng sut ph hp vi yu cu v pht trin ph ti
Thi gian lp t ngn hn nhiu so vi xy dng cc ngun pht in truyn thng gim
ri ro v ti chnh hoc ri ro v thay i chnh sch.
t hoc khng gy nhim mi trng
1.2.1 Lp t vi cng sut ph hp
iu ny ph hp vi cc nc pht trin thng c nhu cu v in nng c khuynh hng gim
do p dng cc chnh sch v chng trnh tit kim nng lng v s pht trin ca cng ngh
khin hiu sut s dng nng lng trong sn xut c nng cao.
1.4

Hnh 1.2 l mt v d cho thy nhu cu tng trng v in nng ti M gim t 7%/nm trong
nhng nm 70 xung cn 2%/nm trong thp nin 2000. Lu l cng sut kinh t ca nh my
nhit in truyn thng l trong khong 500MW n 1000MW. Nh vy, mt nh my cng sut
500MW d dng y ti sau khong vi nm nu nhu cu tng trng in nng l 7%/nm,
nhng s cn n hng thp nin c th y ti nu nhu cu ny l 2%/nm. Do , nu nhu cu
tng trng v in thp, vic u t cc nh my in ln truyn thng l khng kinh t.

Hnh 1.2: Nhu cu tng trng v in nng ti M t thp nin 70 n thp nin 2000


Hnh 1.3: H thng in truyn thng kiu tp trung (Central Generation) v h thng in kiu mi vi s tham gia
ca cc ngun phn tn
1.5

Trong khi , cc ngun pht in t gi v nng lng mt tri mang tnh moun ho cao, v
c th u t pht trin vi bt k c cng sut no. V d, tuabin gi c th t vi kW n 2-
3MW, cn cc panel pin mt tri c th lp t t vi chc W n hng MW. Mt li im khc l
cc ngun pht t nng lng ti to ny c th lp t gn cc ti tiu th, do tit kim c
thit b v dy dn trong h thng truyn ti nh vi cc nh my in truyn thng. Hnh 1.3 cho
thy s khc bit gia h thng pht v truyn ti in truyn thng vi h thng pht v truyn ti
in mi, trong c s tham gia ca cc ngun in phn tn (DG Dispersed Generator or
Distributed Generator), ch yu l ngun pht nng lng ti to.
1.2.2 Gim kh thi v cc hiu ng c hi khc
Lu l 1GWh nng lng ti to gip gim pht thi (so vi nng lng truyn thng): 75 100
tn CO
2
, 7.510 tn SO
2
, 35 tn NO
x
. Vic tng cng s dng cc ngun nng lng ti to
s gip gim pht thi cc kh gy hiu ng nh knh nh k trn. Ngoi ra, s nh hng ca
trng in t pht x t cc ng dy truyn ti in p cao hin cng l vn ang c quan
tm. V cc l do v mi trng ny, tc tng trng ca ngun pht in s dng nng lng
gi v mt tri l rt ng k t u thp nin 1990 n nay, nh ch ra trn hnh 1.4.

Hnh 1.3: Tc tng trng trung bnh ca cc loi hnh pht in trn th gii trong khong 1993-2003
1.2.3 Gi in v s chn la ca ngi tiu dng
Nhiu ngi tiu dng sn sng tr tin in cao hn cho in sn xut t nng lng ti
to.Tuy nhin, nu gi in sn xut t cc ngun ny cao ng k so vi in sn xut t cc nh
my truyn thng s l mt ro cn vi tm l ngi tiu dng. Hnh 1.5 l kt qu kho st nm
1.6

2003 ti M, cho thy quan h gia tin in phi tr thm vi phn trm s ngi tiu dng sn
sng tr tin in cao hn cho in sn xut t nng lng ti to.

Hnh 1.4: T l ngi M sn sng tr thm tin s dng in t ngun nng lng ti to (2003)
Tuy nhin, nhng pht trin nhanh chng trong cng ngh sn xut in t cc ngun nng
lng ti to lm gim gi in sn xut t cc ngun ny kh nhiu. Bng 1.3 cho c tnh
gi in sn xut t cc ngun vi cc k thut khc nhau ti M nm 2017, trong c tnh n
tui th trung bnh cc ngun pht in. C th thy rng in sn xut t cc ngun nh gi v
a nhit c th cn r hn in sn xut t than hoc nng lng ht nhn.
Bng 1.3: c tnh gi in sn xut ti M (2017)
(Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012. June 2012, DOE/EIA-
0383(2012))
Plant Type
Range for Total System Levelized Costs
(2010 USD/MWh)
Minimum Average Maximum
Conventional Coal 90.1 99.6 116.3
Advanced Coal 103.9 112.2 126.1
Advanced Coal with CCS 129.6 140.7 162.4
Natural Gas Fired
1.7

Conventional Combined Cycle 61.8 68.6 88.1
Advanced Combined Cycle 58.9 65.5 83.3
Advanced CC with CCS 82.8 92.8 110.9
Conventional Combustion Turbine 94.6 132.0 164.1
Advanced Combustion Turbine 80.4 105.3 133.0
Advanced Nuclear 108.4 112.7 120.1
Geothermal 85.0 99.6 113.9
Biomass 101.5 120.2 142.8
Wind 78.2 96.8 114.1
Solar PV 122.2 156.9 245.6
Solar Thermal 182.7 251.0 400.7
Hydro 57.8 88.9 147.6
CC = combined cycle.
CCS = carbon capture and sequestration.
PV = photovoltaics.

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