14 2557

tender offer SCBLIF

ASTV

Siam Intelligence Unit

()
()
()
() (SCB) 15
2557

()
(SCBLIF) 1,117.25

SCB
56
. 12 /2554
( . 12 /2554) SCB

56 (4) . 12/2554
1.
SCB

SCBLIF
(Conflict of Interest)
56 (4) . 12/2554
.2552 5( 3 )

2.
SCB 1,117.25
(Terminal Value)
10

10


5 15% 5 5%

3% 2,161.80 ( :
)
3.

5 1

SCBLIF

SCBLIF

delist
SCBLIF tender offer delist
tender offer 2554 SCB Newyork Life
Sage Capital
IFA 3-5% Terminal Value 10

SCB delist tender offer

SCB SCBLIF
30 - 2 57 SCBLIF
5%

( 600,000
10 1.5 )





delist

delist 10
delist SCB
SCBLIF
SCB SCBLIF


2


1. delist SCBLIF
delist
delist
10
delist
(Reputation)

SCB
5
delist
5%
2.
3

1
56(4) 12/2554
Big4
5%

( :
)
3


1.

2. Embedded Value Report 2013

6 -7

3.

8 - 9

4. SCBLIF

10

5. Multiplier

11 - 12

6. SCBLIF

13

7. 1,117.25

13

1.

30 - 2 57
2
1. SCBLIF 3
3
2. delist
5

2. Embedded Value Report 2013

 2
1. Risk discount rate 10%
2. Embedded Value (EV) 2013 2012 13%
( 45.11 Embedded
Value+ 2013 2012 23.75% )
Value of New Business ( VoNB ) 2013 2012
43%
EV VoNB

3.
1. 3 20%
( : )

Single premium *

single premium
2554
29,853
29,853
2555
41,535
3,299
38,235
28%
2556
45,030
45,030
18%
* 2555 Single Premium 3,299.1
1

2. (First Year Premium)
2557
( : )

2555 568 770 872 582 747 870 720 739 736 712 776 780
2556 458 662 914 554 606 857 635 637 760 674 649 640
2557 1,231 1,502 1,497 1,480 1,043

3. 3
28%
( : )

2554
12
6,798
65,117
7,645
79,573

2555
21
15,946
80,576
9,126
105,671
33%

2556
11
33,400
87,905
9,795
131,111
24%

4.
( : )
2554
2555

79,573
105,671

33%

3,381
4,283

27%

3,551
4,488

26%

2,499
3,430

37%
: 31

2556
131,111
24%
5,350
25%
5,895
31%
4,734
38%

5.

( : )
31 52
31 56
%
embedded value
12,534
30,419
25%
embedded value
12,534
36,298
30%
+ 4
Value of new business
1,078
4,405
42%

1,582
4,734
32%
+
6,323
17,357
29%
4
4 30%

100% 2

4. SCBLIF
(Actuarial Appraisal of Economic Value
Method)
(Appraisal Value)
Appraisal Value ( ) = Embedded Value + (Value of new Business x Multiplier)

Embedded Value = +

(Adjusted Net Worth)

(Value of In-force Business)

Value of New Business (VONB) 1

Multiplier (Capitalization Factor ,CF) = VONB
Multiplier 1.
2. 3.
Multiplier
Multiplier Multiplier

Embedded Value VONB SCBLIF

31 .. 52
31 .. 56
% (CARG)
Embedded Value
12,534
30,419
25% *
Value of New Business
1,078
4,405
42%

1,582
4,734
32%
( * Embedded Value 4 5,879
30% 9 )

10

5. Multiplier
Multiplier 1. VONB 2.
(Risk Discount Rate)
1. VONB
VONB SCBLIF 2552 2556 42
SCBLIF
10

:
2552 - 2556
19% 1 SCBLIF
SCBLIF


. 2020 McKinsey Global Insurance
Pools* 10% (* Life
Insurance in Asia : Sustaining Growth in the Next Decade Stephan Binder, Joseph Luc Ngai ,2nd edition ,Sep,2012)
SCBLIF

:
2555 3%

9% 7%
2

( / Special

Report 2557)
2

( / Special
Report 2557)

11

 SCBLIF
10
SCBLIF

SCBLIF


VONB

Growth

2558
15%

2559
15%

2560
15%

2561
15%

2562
15%

2563
5%

2564
5%

2565
5%

2566
5%

2567
5%

Terminal Growth
3%

VONB Constant Growth Rate

10

2. )Risk Discount Rate)

Risk Discount Rate ( 12%) Multiplier

Risk Discount Rate ( 8%) Multiplier

SCBLIF
Embedded Value 2556 Risk Discount Rate 10% SCBLIF

10
Multiplier
SCBLIF 25.73

12

6. SCBLIF
Embedded Value
Value of New Business
Multiplier (CF)

=
=
=

30,419
4,405
25.73

SCBLIF 30,419 + (4,405 x 25.73) = 143,759.6

2,161.80

7. 1,117.25
Embedded Value Value of New Business 31 2556
()
Embedded Value
=
30,419
Value of New Business =
4,405

=
66,500,000

=
1,117.25


=
74,297.125

Embedded Value Value of New Business Multiplier

Multiplier (CF)
=
(74,297.125 - 30,419)/4,405 = 9.96
Multiplier (CF)
=
9.96
Multiplier
Multiplier 10.0

1,117.25 Multiplier 9.96 !!!

Terminal Value 10 !!!

OMG !!!
13