Primary Model Developer: BPM Financial Modelling Cover Notes: Provides a practical example of the modelling of live, three-way financial statements. Go to Table of Contents Table of Contents Financial Statements Modelling Exercise Section & Sheet Titles Page 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 - - - - - - Total Pages: 20 Financial Statements a. Income Statement 1. Assumptions a. Time Series Assumptions 3. Go to Cover Sheet c. Projected Assumptions 2. c. Appendices 3.2. Checks a. Checks b. Opening Balance Sheet Assumptions b. Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Sensitivity Checks Alert Checks 3.1. Lookup Tables a. Time Series Lookup Tables Error Checks Assumptions Section 1. Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Section Cover Notes: This section contains assumptions relating to the forecasting of financial statement items. Assumptions are contained within the Time Series worksheet, Opening Balance Sheet worksheet and the Project Assumptions worksheet. Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office Assumptions_SC Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 3 of 19 Time Series Assumptions Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O Time Series Assumptions Core Time Series Assumptions Title Periodicity Financial Year End 31 12 Start Date Periods Denomination Historical & Forecast Period Titles Include in Period Titles? Actual Periods Budget Periods Data & Projections - Timing Assumptions Data Term Basis Data - Active Periods Projections - Start Date Notes: - A Financial Year End assumption of 28th of February is assumed to be a month end financial year end, even in a leap year. - The "Model Denomination" assumption will not necessarily automatically change the denomination of the outputs of this model. - A "Budget Period" refers to either a period in the current financial year or periods containing combined actual and forecast data. - "Data & Projections - Timing Assumptions" are used as the basis for related data and projections time series sheets. - Use the bpmToolbox "Update Time Series Columns" tool to hide inactive data and projections time series periods. Go to Table of Contents Primary Annual 1-Jan-12 5 - 1 3 1-Jan-13 2 TRUE 3 238595169.xls.ms_office TS_BA Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 4 of 19 Opening Balance Sheet Assumptions Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O Opening Balance Sheet ($Millions) Current Assets 1-Jan-12 Cash 50.0 Accounts Receivable 10.0 Other Current Assets 5.0 Total Current Assets 65.0 Non-Current Assets PP&E 250.0 Intangibles 100.0 Deferred Tax Assets 5.0 Other Non-Current Assets 12.0 Total Non-Current Assets 367.0 Total Assets 432.0 Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 8.0 Interest Payable 2.0 Dividends Payable 1.0 Income Tax Payable 6.0 Other Current Liabilities 2.0 Total Current Liabilities 19.0 Non-Current Liabilities Debt 196.0 Deferred Tax Liabilities 12.0 Other Non-Current Liabilities 6.0 Total Non-Current Liabilities 214.0 Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office BS_Open_BA Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 5 of 19 Projected Assumptions Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2012 (A) 2013 (A) 2014 (A) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) Revenues & Expenses Base Period Periodic Growth Rates (% per Year) Sales $Millions 120.0 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% Cost of Goods Sold % of Sales 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% Base Period Periodic Growth Rates (% per Year) Operating Expenditure $Millions 27.0 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Capital Expenditure - PP&E $Millions 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 Capital Expenditure - Intangibles $Millions 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 Debtors & Creditors Accounts Receivable Debtor Days 30 30 30 30 30 Accounts Payable Creditor Days 60 60 60 60 60 Assets Depreciation & Amortisation Assumptions Depreciation - PP&E % of Capex 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% Depreciation - Intangibles % of Capex 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office Proj_Ass_TA Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 6 of 19 Financial Statements Section 2. Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Section Cover Notes: Contains live, linked three-way financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement). Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office Financial_Statements_SC Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 7 of 19 Income Statement Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2012 (A) 2013 (A) 2014 (A) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) Income Statement ($Millions) Sales 120.0 126.0 129.8 133.0 136.4 Cost of Goods Sold (54.0) (56.7) (58.4) (59.9) (61.4) Gross Margin 66.0 69.3 71.4 73.2 75.0 Operating Expenditure (27.0) (27.7) (28.4) (29.1) (29.8) EBITDA 39.0 41.6 43.0 44.1 45.2 Depreciation - PP&E (6.3) (6.8) (7.2) (7.7) (8.1) Depreciation - Intangibles (1.0) (1.2) (1.4) (1.7) (1.9) Total Depreciation & Amortisation (7.3) (7.9) (8.6) (9.3) (10.0) EBIT 31.8 33.7 34.4 34.8 35.2 Interest Expense (15.9) (16.2) (16.4) (16.6) (16.9) Net Profit Before Tax (NPBT) 15.8 17.5 18.0 18.1 18.3 Tax Expense (4.7) (5.3) (5.4) (5.4) (5.5) Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) 11.1 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.8 Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office IS_TO Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 8 of 19 Balance Sheet Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2012 (A) 2013 (A) 2014 (A) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) Balance Sheet ($Millions) Current Assets Opening Cash 50.0 76.0 85.1 92.2 97.9 Net Change in Cash Held 26.0 9.1 7.1 5.8 9.7 Cash 76.0 85.1 92.2 97.9 107.6 Accounts Receivable 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2 Other Current Assets 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 Total Current Assets 86.8 97.4 105.8 110.9 120.3 Non-Current Assets PP&E 250.7 251.5 252.3 253.1 254.0 Intangibles 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.4 Deferred Tax Assets 5 5 5 5 5 Other Non-Current Assets 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Total Non-Current Assets 367.8 368.6 369.4 370.4 371.4 Total Assets 454.6 466.0 475.3 481.2 491.7 Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 Interest Payable 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office BS_TO Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 9 of 19 Cash Flow Statement Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2012 (A) 2013 (A) 2014 (A) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) Cash Flow Statement ($Millions) Operating Cash Flows Sales 120.0 126.0 129.8 133.0 136.4 Decrease in Accounts Receivable 0.2 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) Cash Receipts 120.2 125.5 129.5 132.8 136.1 Cost of Goods Sold (54.0) (56.7) (58.4) (59.9) (61.4) Operating Expenditure (27.0) (27.7) (28.4) (29.1) (29.8) Increase in Accounts Payable (3.6) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Cash Payments (84.6) (84.3) (86.7) (88.8) (91.1) Interest Paid (2.0) (15.9) (16.2) (16.4) (16.6) Tax Paid (4.6) (5.0) (5.4) (5.7) (5.6) Decrease / (Increase) in Other Current Assets 4.0 (1.0) (1.0) 1.0 0.5 Increase / (Decrease) in Other Current Liabilities (1.5) 0.5 0.5 (0.5) (0.3) Net Operating Cash Flows 31.5 19.8 20.8 22.3 23.0 Investing Cash Flows Capital Expenditure - PP&E (7.0) (7.5) (8.0) (8.5) (9.0) Capital Expenditure - Intangibles (1.0) (1.3) (1.5) (1.8) (2.0) Net Investing Cash Flows (8.0) (8.8) (9.5) (10.3) (11.0) Financing Cash Flows Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office CFS_TO Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 10 of 19 Appendices Section 3. Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Section Cover Notes: This section contains Appendices Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office Appendices_SC Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 11 of 19 Lookup Tables Sub-Section 3.1. Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Sub-Section Cover Notes: This sub-section contains Lookup Tables Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office Lookup_Tables_SSC Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 12 of 19 Time Series Lookup Tables Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Time Series Lookup Tables Month Days Names Month Days LU_Mth_Days 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office TS_LU Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 13 of 19 Time Series Lookup Tables Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Go to Table of Contents Month Names Names Month Names LU_Mth_Names January February March April May June July August September October November December Denomination Names Denomination LU_Denom $Billions Billions $Millions Millions $'000 Thousands $ Currency Data Term Basis Names Data Term Basis LU_Data_Term_Basis Active Data Periods Projections Start Periodicity Names Periodicity LU_Periodicity Annual Annual Semi-Annual Semi_Annual Quarterly Qtrly Monthly Mthly 238595169.xls.ms_office TS_LU Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 14 of 19 Time Series Lookup Tables Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Go to Table of Contents Period Type Names Names Period Type Names LU_Period_Type_Names Year Yr_Name Half Year Half_Yr_Name Quarter Qtr_Name Month Mth_Name Periods In Year Names Periods In Year LU_Pers_In_Yr 1 Yrs_In_Yr 2 Halves_In_Yr 4 Qtrs_In_Yr 12 Mths_In_Yr Conversion Factors Names Conversion Factors 10 Ten 100 Hundred 1,000 Thousand 1,000,000 Million 1,000,000,000 Billion 238595169.xls.ms_office TS_LU Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 15 of 19 Checks Sub-Section 3.2. Financial Statements Modelling Exercise
Sub-Section Cover Notes: This sub-section contains Checks Go to Table of Contents 238595169.xls.ms_office Checks_SSC Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 16 of 19 Checks Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O Error Checks ## Errors Detected - Summary Total Errors: - Error Message (Empty if None): Error Checks Error Checks Check Include? Flag Balance Sheet - Yes - Total Errors: - Go to Table of Contents Include summary in model name? 238595169.xls.ms_office Checks_BO Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 17 of 19 Checks Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O Go to Table of Contents Sensitivity Checks ## Sensitivities Detected - Summary Total Sensitivities: - Sensitivity Message (Empty if None): Sensitivity Checks Sensitivity Checks Check Include? Flag Total Sensitivities: - Include summary in model name? 238595169.xls.ms_office Checks_BO Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 18 of 19 Checks Financial Statements Modelling Exercise x h O Go to Table of Contents Alert Checks ## Alerts Detected - Summary Total Alerts: - Alert Message (Empty if None): Alert Checks Alert Checks Check Include? Flag Opening Balance Sheet Assumptions - Yes - Total Alerts: - Include summary in model name? 238595169.xls.ms_office Checks_BO Printed: 9:45 PM on 7/16/2014 Page 19 of 19