**Venezuela Politics DA**

Strategic Trick
(1) Use these DAs with Say no arguments Either Maduro will say no or he
will say yes and they link to the DAs.
(2) If you want to kick out of DA, you can still extend the uniqueness and/or link
card as evidence that Maduro will say no to take out aff solvency in the
negative block.

Shortcomings of File
*Needs impact development some of the impact scenarios do not have terminal
impacts any *tagline requires a card to accompany it


1NC

Next six months are key municipal elections will determine Maduros ability
to fulfill his 6-year mandate
Renuncio13 - Senior Associate, Intelligence & Analysis, London (Irenea, Risk
Advisory, Venezuela: strategic risk outlook for 2013, 6/19/2013,
http://news.riskadvisory.net/index.php/2013/06/venezuela-strategic-risk-
outlook-for-2013/) //CT
While we believe that Maduro and Cabello are likely to continue governing in an informal
power sharing agreement for the remainder of the year, it is unclear at this point if this
arrangement is sustainable in the longer term, particularly as hardship protests appear likely to
continue and put pressure on the relationship. Protests could weaken Maduros authority and upset the balance of power
between the two men. Currently there is no firm evidence to suggest that Maduro could be ousted from power before the
December elections and we think such a scenario is unlikely on current indications. Rather, Cabello and Maduro seem likely to
cooperate to maintain their positions and privileges under the current system, with both leaders forced to support each other
despite their differences. However, Maduros prospects after the elections seem much less certain, making the next six
months a critical window for him to start delivering on economic policy and
bringing improved security to the country. Constrained by a power sharing
agreement and having inherited a highly dysfunctional economy and political
system, Maduros ability to deliver is very limited. It seems unlikely that even
with a dramatic reform program he will be able to deliver results quickly. In the
meantime, opposition protests seem almost certain to continue over the following months. These are most
likely to intensify in October and November ahead of the December municipal
elections , which are likely to be a test of Maduros leadership . With the opposition calling for a
mass turnout at the polls, the next local election is most likely to result in renewed unrest in the countrys main cities,
especially if socio-economic hardship continues. Regardless of outcome, the municipal elections will not
unseat Maduro, but potentially sweeping gains by the opposition could seriously
erode his standing in Chavismo and open the door to an internal challenge by
Cabello . Although the longer-term direction of Chavismo is difficult to forecast with any reliability, on current indications
the current government appears to lack the cohesion or popular support to
navigate a range of different economic and political challenges during
Maduros six-year mandate, so we expect a restive end to the year.

US Venezuelan relations at all time low Maduro using anti-American rhetoric
to quiet radical factions in Venezuela. Maduro opening to United States and
private industry will fracture his political and regional support.
WA Post, 13 (Juan Forero, Venezuela's Maduro culls power with Snowden asylum offer, 7/9/13, L-N)//CT

BOGOTA, Colombia - American fugitive Edward Snowden's diminishing possibilities of remaining free to continue
releasing information about secret U.S. surveillance programs increasingly appear to hinge on Venezuela, which awaited
word Monday on whether the former National Security Agency contractor would accept its offer of asylum and fly to the
oil-rich country. Bolivia and Nicaragua also say they could give refuge to Snowden, who is on the run from American
officials and is thought to be marooned in the vast transit zone of Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport. And the
president of communist Cuba, Ral Castro, on Sunday expressed support for Latin American allies that might take in the
30-year-old computer expert, opening the possibility that Snowden could fly through Havana as a first leg on his flight to
asy-lum. Among those offering sanctuary to Snowden, anti-imperialist Venezuela stands out: a country with an intense an-
tipathy toward the United States and just enough muscle to make his escape from American law enforcement a possibil-
ity. It also appears that Russian officials, eager to end the diplomatic fallout of having Snowden in Moscow, see their close
ally, Venezuela, as offering the clearest solution. "The situation with Snowden is creating additional tension in relations
with Washington that are complex as they are," Alexei Pushkov, head of the foreign affairs committee in Russia's lower
house of parliament, told the newspaper Kommersant on Monday. Pushkov, whose comments dependably reflect the
Kremlin's position on foreign affairs, said the Snowden saga needed to be settled before President Obama arrives in
September to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. "And judging by the way things are unfolding," Pushkov
told the newspaper, "this is how it's going to be." Over the weekend, Pushkov had also said that giving asylum to
Snowden in Venezuela could not damage President Nicols Maduro, because his
government's relations with Washington are already in tatters. "It can't get
worse," Pushkov said in a Twitter message. Newly elected and facing staggering economic problems at home despite
the country's oil wealth, Maduro appears to have made a high-pitched, openly hostile
position against the Obama administration a cornerstone of his govern-ment's
foreign policy. He took his most provocative stand Friday in announcing that Venezuela would take
in Snowden. On Monday, Maduro said that a letter from Snowden requesting asylum had been received and that the
young American would simply have to decide when to fly to Caracas. Maduro has accused the United States of fomenting
protests against his government after his disputed April 14 election victory, which gave him the presidency his
predecessor, Hugo Chvez, had held for 14 turbulent years until his death from cancer. The Snowden saga - a young
American revealing secrets the U.S. government wants to contain - provided the per-fect opportunity for Maduro to take
on the Obama administration, said Eduardo Semtei, a former Venezuelan govern-ment official. "To figure
internationally, to show that he is a player among big powers, he offered
asylum to Snowden," said Sem-tei, who had been close to Chvez's brother, Adn, a leading ideologue in the late
president's radical movement. "This grabs headlines, and it shows that he's a strong
president, one with character, and that he's capable of challenging the United
States." Maduro and Venezuela came late to the Snowden saga, as tiny Ecuador, an ally also committed to opposing
Ameri-can initiatives, heaped praise on Snowden and expressed a willingness to help him after he had flown from Hong
Kong to Moscow on June 23 to avoid American justice. WhenEcuador backed away from its initial enthusiasm over
Snowden, Venezuela stepped in last week as Maduro arrived in Moscow for an energy summit. The 50-year-old
Maduro, who found his political calling as a socialist activist with close ties to
Cuba, took a sharp-ly anti-imperialist stand in embracing Snowden. He said
the United States had "created an evil system, half Orwellian, that intends to
control the communications of the world," and characterized Snowden as an
antiwar activist and hero who had unmasked the dastardly plans of America's
ruling elite. Political analysts say the opportunity to take sides against
Washington was simply irresistible for a government that has for years
characterized itself as a moral force speaking out for the weak against "the
empire," as the United States is known in Caracas. And the fact that the secrets Snowden
divulged were embarrassing to the Obama administration only gave more fuel to Venezuela, former Venezuelan diplomats
and political analysts in Caracas said. "Edward Snowden became the symbol for the anti-imperialist rhetoric, for
progressivism, for international radical-ism," said Carlos Romero, an analyst and author who closely tracks Venezuela's
international diplomacy. Venezuela helped channel the fury of Argentina, Bolivia,
Ecuador, Uruguay and Suriname after Bolivian President Evo Morales's plane was apparently refused
entry into the airspace of as many as four European countries last Tuesday because of the belief that Snowden was hiding
aboard. And on Monday, Venezuela's state media apparatus seemed to take more offense than the Brazilian government
over revelations that the NSA had collected data on countless tele-phone and e-mail conversations in Brazil. But former
diplomats familiar with Venezuela say that there are other aspects to consider in deciphering Maduro's support for
Snowden. Ignacio Arcaya, a diplomat who served the Chvez government in the United States in the early part of his
presiden-cy, said Maduro has had the challenge of trying to ease the concerns of
radicalized sectors in his movement that have been worried about a
resumption of relations with Washington now that Chvez is gone. Indeed, until
recently, Maduro was spearheading an effort at rapprochement, as shown by a meeting in Guatemala on June 5 between
Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Venezuelan counterpart, Elas Jaua. "What Maduro is doing is aimed at
quieting the radical sectors of his party who think he is negotiating with the
United S tates and think that he's talking to private industry," Arcaya said. Maduro also
has to consider his own unstable political position after the April 14 election, which
is being contested by his challenger, Henrique Capriles, who says the vote was stolen from him. At the same time,
Maduro faces millions of Venezuelans tired of the country's sky-high inflation, rampant homicide
rate and serious shortages of everything from chicken to toilet paper. Myles R.R. Frechette, a retired
American diplomat who served in Venezuela and other Latin American countries, said Maduro is using a tried-
and-true strategy: loudly oppose the United States to distract from domestic
problems. "It plays very well," said Frechette. "It's the card to play. It's what you've always
got in your drawer. You open your drawer and play to your most radical
elements."

Turns the case - Loss of political popularity causes Venezuelan instability -
this spills over to regional destabilization
Fair Observer, 13 a team of researchers, analysts, facilitators and problem-solvers that speak more than a dozen
languages, and have lived, worked, or studied in nearly 50 countries. (Helios Global, Change in Venezuela Yields Political and
Economic Uncertainty, Fair Observer, 6/4/13, http://www.fairobserver.com/article/change-venezuela-yields-political-and-economic-
uncertainty)//MC
Operating under a weaker popular mandate, and in a politically charged and polarized climate, raises the specter
of widespread disturbances in Venezuela. Capriles announced on April 25 that his movement plans to boycott an official
audit of the election results due to concerns relating to voter registration irregularities. He has also called for a new presidential vote.
Capriles and his supporters seem determined to step up pressure on the fledgling Maduro presidency. Countries that depend
on Venezuelan largesse to support their economies through the receipt of subsidized oil and
preferential trade access to the Venezuelan market, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia, among
others, stand to lose a great deal should Maduro choose to shift Venezuelan foreign policy, however
slightly, from the Bolivarian Revolutionary ideals enshrined during Chavezs rule . Having to contend with their
own economic troubles, the loss of subsidized oil or other benefits provided by Venezuela, for example, can
destabilize fragile polities, impoverishing millions in the process. This raises the potential of social,
political, and economic instability throughout the region.

Uniqueness
Uniqueness Anti-American Now

Maduro wont normalize relations in the squo multiple reasons:
a) Powers comments - postdates Kerrys June meeting
Neuman 7/20 Journalist for NYT (William, New York Times , Venezuela stops Efforts to improve U.S relations,
6/20/13 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuela-stops-efforts-to-improve-us-
relations.html?_r=0) //JWC
CARACAS, Venezuela Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round of off-
again-on-again efforts to improve relations with the United S tates in reaction to comments
by the Obama administrations nominee for United Nations ambassador. The nominee, Samantha Power, speaking before
a Senate committee on Wednesday, said that part of her role as ambassador would be to
challenge a crackdown on civil society in several countries, including Venezuela. President
Nicols Maduro had already lashed out on Thursday at Ms. Power for her remarks, and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said
that it was terminating efforts to improve relations with the United States. Those efforts had inched
forward just last month after Secretary of State John Kerry publicly shook hands with the Venezuelan foreign
minister, Elas Jaua, during an international meeting in Guatemala one of the highest level meetings between
officials of the two countries in years. Venezuela will never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs, the
Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that it considered terminated the process begun in the conversations in
Guatemala that had as their goal the regularization of our diplomatic relations.

b) Consistently vocal anti-American rhetoric proves
AP 7/17 (Deb Riechmann, Snowden affair chills US-Latin American ties,
Associated Press: US Politics & Government Online, NewsBank, Monday, July 15
th

2013) EC
U.S. relations with Venezuela have been a lot thornier. While Nicolas Maduro ,
appears to be more pragmatic than his predecessor, he has loudly voiced his
own anti-American rhetoric since taking office even alleging that the U.S. had a hand in Chavez' death
from cancer. Maduro expelled two U.S. Air Force attaches from Caracas, accusing
them of trying to foment instability. The Obama administration responded by expelling two Venezuelan diplomats
from Washington.

c) Spying Scandal and Snowden proves - predictive
BBC, 7/18/13 (Snowden case adversely affecting US-Latin American ties, BBC
Monitoring International Reports, Khaleej Times website, Internal Bank News,
Thursday, July 18, 2013) EC
But even if the US manages to get hold of him, the former CIA technical worker has managed to
strain hitherto solid trans-atlantic relations and even deal a blow to America's
ties with Latin America. Following report in the German paper Der Spiegel -based on leaked classified documents by
Snowden -which alleged that America's National Security Agency (NSA) had been spying on its European allies, Brazil's O Globo published a
similar report regarding the NSA's spying on South American countries. The states, which have often been
referred to America's "backyard" were incensed by these revelations. After this news
made headlines, the Mercosur bloc of nations - Venezuela , Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay
and Paraguay -were quick to condemn the alleged spying by the US and defend
their right to offer Snowden asylum. And now, Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman has given a list of
nearly a 100 names of politicians and officials, who are allegedly being spied on, to prosecutors. According to Timerman, a high-ranking official
at last week's meeting of the Mercosur group had given him the list. While the foreign minister did not accuse the US of subj ecting Argentine
citizens to illegal surveillance, there are reports that a similar list has been handed to an
official of another Latin American country as well. It's clear that the
allegations of spying by the US are being taken very seriously by Latin
American nations. And this news has made these countries even more
adamant on providing asylum to Snowden. Venezuela , Bolivia and Nicaragua
have all offered the 30-year-old whistleblower asylum in their territory. Snowden,
who is without travel documents, is expected to seek temporary asylum in Russia before moving to Latin America. The Snowden
affair has adversely impacted US ties with Latin America, but it seems they
will only deteriorate in the future. With Snowden freely roaming in Venezuela , divulging more about the US
intelligence in the global media, the scandal is definitely going to do some irreparable
damage to America's relations with its supposed backyard.


Uniqueness Regional stability

Maduro has regional support now Brazil and Argentina back
Maduro, but opposition leaders are still campaigning
-Economic governs regional ties, not democratic ties
WA Post, 13 (Emilia Diaz-Struck and Juan Forero, Journalists, New Venezuelan leader wins support in region,
5/11, p.A6, L-N)//CT

CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's embattled new president, Nicolas Maduro, worked hard this
week to strengthen diplomatic ties with neighbors, winning much-
needed support from some of the continent's biggest democra-cies as he
faced accusations at home that his government stole April's presidential election. Visiting regional
heavyweight Brazil on Thursday, Maduro won a seal of approval from
President Dilma Rousseff, who pledged to expand trade with Venezuela. A
day earlier, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner had mobilized pro-Venezuela activists to
fill a Buenos Aires soccer stadium and signed a range of bilateral cooperation accords
with Maduro. "We wish you great success with your presidential mandate and with your government," Rousseff
told Maduro at a news conference in Brasilia in which the two leaders laughed and exchanged hugs. "We are a deeply
democratic country," Maduro responded. "We have an almost perfect electoral system." In a week of
feverish diplomacy, Maduro's efforts were matched by those of
opposition leaders, who traveled to meet with legislators and
journalists in Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. They
asserted that the April 14 vote in Venezuela had been rife with irregularities, questioning whether Maduro really defeated
his challenger, Henrique Capriles, and said the government had clamped down on its
political adversaries ever since, even resorting to violence. "Our intention was to show
what's been going on before lawmakers and governments," Leopoldo Lpez, who led small delegations to Peru, Argentina
and Uruguay, said in an interview. "We want our neighbors to know of the instability
in Venezuela." As protests picked up in the days after the vote, the government arrested a former general it
accused of fomenting dissent, and lawmakers were videotaped beating opposition congressmen in the National Assembly.
Top officials, including Maduro, have also vowed to jail opposition leaders, among them Capriles and Lpez. But it was
clear by Friday that Maduro, handpicked by the late President Hugo Chvez to be his successor, was
securely ensconced in power. Governments from Mexico to Argentina
appeared to see little amiss with the Venezuelan election, which electoral
officials closely allied with the government said Maduro had won by a
razor-thin margin. "He shored up his support," said Michael Shifter, president of the
Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington group that tracks politics across the region. "These governments didn't show
much hesitation in embracing Maduro. They still see him as the main option, and there didn't seem to be any hint that
they were reconsidering their support for him." Many of the countries to which Maduro
reached out have close trade ties with Caracas, which they see as a
signifi-cant importer of their products or a vital supplier of subsidized
oil. The issue of civil rights in Venezuela played little or no role in the
diplomatic positions that several countries took, said Moiss Nam, senior
associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "Their silence speaks very
eloquently to how much they weigh their economic interests and how
little their demo-cratic values weigh in their behavior," said Nam, who is
Venezuelan and opposes the Maduro government.


Uniqueness Public Popularity
Maduro narrowly popular now public likes political, social and economic
outlook
Mallet-Outtrim13 (Author, studying Journalism and International Relations at the University of South Australia,
majoring in national security and sustainability (Ryan, 4/10/13, Poll Reveals Majority of Venezuelans View Maduro
Positively; Carter Center Recommends Electoral Reform, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9806) //JM

After being elected president with 50.6% of the vote in April, now 55.9% of Venezuelans support
Nicolas Maduro, according to a survey from pollster International Consulting Services (ICS). The
increase in support for the president is attributed to direct communication with the
electorate, such as Maduro's street government initiative, according to ICS director, Lorenzo Martinez. This result is
evidence somewhat that the Maduro government... has had a positive impact on the perception of the people... the
political, social and economic landscape is improving, Martinez told state news agency AVN,
following the publication of the results yesterday. However, when asked how they viewed Maduro's management skills, a
slightly higher figure- 56.2% of participants described the president's performance as excellent fair or good. The 1,600
Venezuelans surveyed by the ICS between 15 to 26 June also expressed a favourable view of the economy and security,
according to Martinez. 53.4% of participants stated that they feel the economy is improving, while 21.2% stated it has
worsened. 24.8% said that the economy hasn't changed since Maduro took office, while 0.6% didn't know, or didn't answer.
Two weeks before the 14 April elections, an ICS poll estimated that Maduro could command 56.9% of the vote, while his
closest rival Capriles had 41.1%. Maduro won the election with just 50.6%, while Capriles received 49.1% of the vote. Policies
with meat on the bone? As well as citing the street government, Martinez told AVN the results indicate that government
initiatives to counter speculation and crack down on public sector corruption, along with efforts to enforce price controls have
contributed to a positive outlook. According to Martinez, people can see solutions to their specific problems. Last month, the
head of the Institute for the Defence of People in Access to Goods and Services (Indepabis) Eduardo Saman announced a
crackdown on price speculation and retailers that fail to adhere to price controls. Since then, Saman has also announced that
Indepabis has launched a nationwide initiative to put the price of meat back on track. The minister for trade, Alejandro
Fleming has announced he held a series of meetings with a number of major retailers, along with the National Association of
Supermarkets to encourage greater cooperation between the private sector and Indepabis. On the same day that the ICS
results were released, an Indepabis spokesperson announced that 20 butchers in Lara state had been penalised for not
complying with price controls. We have audited, we found these irregularities and these establishments have been punished,
the Indepabis regional coordinator for Lara, Valentina Querales stated yesterday afternoon. Since the initiative was launched,
the head of Indepabis in Carabobo state Luis Vilchez has stated that 32 audits have been carried out in his state, resulting in
penalties being applied to seven businesses. Another government initiative that Martinez said received some positive feedback
from participants was the 'Safe Homeland' anti-crime program.

Links
Link Generic Economic Engagement

Maduro must remain anti-American to maintain political
support from Bolivarian elites
Shinkman 13 (Paul, National Security reporter at US News & World Report, 4/24/13, Iranian-Sponsored
Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?, US News and World Report,
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond)//JL
At a conference earlier this month, top U.S. military officers identified what they thought would be the
top threats to the U.S. as it draws down from protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Gen. James
Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps, was unequivocal about a largely unreported danger:
"Narco-terrorism just on our south border: [it is] yet to be seen just how that is going to play out in our own
nation, but it is an issue and it is something that our nation is going to have to deal with." "Colombia is doing
particularly well, but there is an insurgency growing," Amos continued. "They have been fighting it, probably the greatest
success story in this part of the world." The commandant's remarks came a week before the April 14 election where
Venezuelans chose a successor to the wildly popular and charismatic Hugo Chavez, who
died March 5. Amos indicated the outcome of this election would define much of future
relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, located on a continent that has
rarely appeared on America's foreign policy radar in the last decade.
Experts, analysts and pundits could not have predicted the election outcome: The establishment's Nicolas Maduro beat
reformer Henrique Capriles by a margin of roughly 1 percent. Chavez's hand-picked successor inherited the presidency,
but he would not enjoy a broad public mandate to get a teetering Venezuela back on track. The situation in the
South American nation remains dire amid skyrocketing inflation, largely due to Chavez's efforts to nationalize
private industry and increase social benefits. Maduro's immediate attention after claiming victory was drawn to
remedying widespread blackouts and food shortages. One expert on the region says the new
leader may need to tap into a shadow world of transnational crime to maintain
the stability his countrymen expect . "Venezuela is a really nice bar, and anybody can go in
there and pick up anybody else," says Doug Farah, an expert on narco-terrorism and Latin American crime. He compares
the country to the kind of establishment where nefarious actors can find solutions to a problem. Anti-American
groups can find freelance cyber terrorists, for example, or potential drug runners can make
connections with the FARC, the Colombian guerilla organization, he says. "Sometimes it creates a long-term relationship,
and sometimes it creates a one-night stand," says Farah, a former Washington Post investigative reporter who is now a
senior fellow at the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center. Under Chavez,
Venezuela also created strong ties with Cuba, which for decades has
navigated treacherous financial waters and desperate economic straits, all while
dodging U.S. influence. But the help Venezuela receives is not limited to its own hemisphere. Farah
produced a research paper for the U.S. Army War College in August 2012 about
the "growing alliance" between state-sponsored Iranian agents and other
anti-American groups in Latin America, including the governments of
Venezuela and Cuba. This alliance with Iran uses established drug trade routes
from countries in South and Central America to penetrate North American borders, all under
a banner of mutual malevolence toward the U.S. The results of this access are largely
secret, though security experts who spoke with U.S. News believe the attempted assassination of the Saudi Arabian
ambassador in Washington, D.C.'s Georgetown neighborhood was carried out by Iranian intelligence operatives. "Each of
the Bolivarian states has lifted visa requirements for Iranian citizens,
thereby erasing any public record of the Iranian citizens that come and go to these
countries," wrote Farah of countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia and Panama. He also
cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in
Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and
sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism." These relationships are
controlled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He
wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives him
enough support to keep the country and its shadow commerce stable enough to continue its
usual business. "[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and
corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to
turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he
needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez.
U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the
hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries. But
Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a
more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his
credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different
circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist
right now."

Maduro must flex anti-American rhetoric to maintain power - Snowden proves.
Scicchitano 7/6 (Paul Scicchitano, writer at Sustainable Success Alert, 7/6/13,
"Ambassador Reich: Maduro Shows 'False Manhood,' Wants to be Chavez," News
Max, http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/reich-maduro-venezuela-
snowden/2013/07/06/id/513588)//SL

Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Otto Reich tells Newsmax that Venezuelas offer of asylum for NSA
leaker Edward Snowden is an attempt by President Nicolas Maduro to flex his false
manhood and be more like his predecessor the late dictator Hugo Chavez.? Venezuela
has nothing to gain. Maduro has a lot to gain, Reich said in an exclusive interview on Friday.
Maduro gains that macho bravado that he has lacked so far. Hes really been a
laughing stock in Venezuela because of things like his statement that Chavez came to him as a little bird and
spoke to him. People have been making fun of that for months. Hes just not taken seriously. What better
show of false manhood than to stand up to the great American empire stand up to
the Americans. This is what hes doing.

Engagement with Washington will ruin Maduro continuing Chavista solves
credibility.
OReilly 13(Andrew, bachelors degree in journalism from the University of Pittsburgh and a joint masters degree
in journalism and Latin American studies from New York University, former editor-in-chief and Founder of Fox News
Latina, 4/17/13, US-Venezuelan Relations Remain Tense Under Maduro, Experts Claim, Fox News Latina,
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/17/us-venezuelan-relations-remain-tense-under-maduro-experts-
claim/)//JL
While the ultimate impact of the Venezuelan presidential election remains to be seen, what's for sure is that
relations between the United States and the administration of President-elect Nicols
Maduro will continue to be as tense as under the late Hugo Chvez,
experts said. After voting on Sunday in a Caracas slum, Maduro said that while he would like to reestablish
relations with the U.S. in terms of equality and respect, Washington will always try to undermine
his rule. These words followed a steady rhetoric on the campaign trail of
Maduro accusing the U.S. of conspiring against him and causing disruptions in
Venezuela to unseat his rule, including working with opposition labor unions and causing electric power
blackouts. Experts argue that given Maduros anti-American sentiments leading
up to the election, as well as the controversy surrounding his victory
and the polarization in Venezuela, there is little hope for a change in relations
between the countries . Its hard to see [Maduro] backing off his
rhetoric in the aftermath of the election, Eric Hershberg, the director of American
Universitys Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, told Fox News Latino. Americans will insist
on a level of respect that he is not going to give them. The death of
Hugo Chvez put Maduro and the rest of the Venezuelan left in a difficult position.
Chvezs charisma held the movement together and his social spending allowed him to skirt the dicey issues of rising
inflation, high crime and a fledgling economy. While the current election results are still being debated, how
Maduro faces the countrys mounting problems both politically and socially are what will
decide is he and Chavismo survive his six-year term. In 2009, Chvez led a
successful push for a constitutional referendum that abolished term limits for the offices of President, state governors,
mayors and congress members. The previous provision established a three-term limit for deputies and a two-term limit for
the other offices, but with the 2009 referendum, Chvez or any other leader could ostensibly stay in power
indefinitely. Maduro does not have the charm or power to hold the Chavista movement together nor make Venezuelans
forget about the problems plaguing their nation. If Sundays vote is any indication, Venezuela is torn between Chvezs
legacy and a dismal future, with the official results giving Maduro 51 percent of the vote to challenger Henrique Capriles
49 percent although opposition sources showed Capriles winning by more than 300,000 votes. Chvez could overcome
the detractors because he was viewed as a national hero, Maduro doesnt have that, said Larry Birns with the Council for
Hemispheric Affairs. To maintain his credibility within the Chavista
movement and fend off opponents from within his own party,
Maduro needs to maintain his opposition to the U.S. and continue to
paint Americans as imperialist intruders, experts said. Hes got to worry about
the opponents that will pose a threat to his rule, Birns said. These are difficult times for Maduro and no one knows how
the scenario will play out. For its part, the United States is not in better shape when it
comes to its relations with Venezuela or other Latin American nations. Diplomatic disputes
with Venezuela and touchy relations with neighboring Bolivia and Ecuador have led to a schism between the United States
and the countries in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas. Hershberg said that the Obama administration's refusal to
accept the official results of Venezuela's election will not only anger Maduro, but could be viewed as hypocritical in the
light of the scandal surrounding the uncounted votes during the 2000 U.S. presidential election that saw George W. Bush
defeat Al Gore. The U.S. has a long history of political involvement both overtly and covertly in elections throughout
Latin America. For the Americans to say this only 12 years after Bush. V. Gore is remarkable, he said. "Latin America
looked at the U.S. and said that the U.S. will never again be able to tell us how to conduct our elections. This makes them
look absurd, he added, about the State Departments refusal to recognize the election of Maduro. The State Department
said it was "difficult to understand" why the commission certified ruling party candidate Nicols Maduro as the winner in
the absence of a recount, which challenger Henrique Capriles is demanding. It also condemned the post-election violence
that has killed at least seven people and injured 61. In a televised broadcast Tuesday, Justice Minister Nestor Reverol
accused Capriles of numerous crimes, including insurrection and civil disobedience. Maduro blamed Capriles personally.
"You are responsible for the dead we are mourning," he said, calling Capriles "the defeated candidate."
Government officials have been alleging since Monday that Capriles is
plotting a coup, and President-elect Maduro announced that he was
prohibiting an opposition march scheduled for Wednesday in the
capital. On Tuesday Capriles' supporters protested in cities including
Merida and Maracay.


Plan destroys Maduro's power in Venezuela -- he must emulate Chavez
Metzker 13 (Jared Metzker, studies American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins,
"Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations" 6-17-2013, IPS News,
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-
venezuela-relations/)//SL
Maduro has so far shifted in his position toward the U.S. between a moderate
approach and a more hard-line one, Shifter told IPS.? The new presidents waffling may be
a reflection of his tenuous grip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and
rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes.? In
addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition that openly challenges the legitimacy
of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavezs
own former political base.? Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant
strength for Chavez, more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of
Venezuelas parliament and whose supporters believe he was the rightful heir to the
presidency.? Maduros legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideological
fidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to emulate
his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.


Link Counterterror/Counternarcotics
Maduro rejecting counterrorism and counternarcotic assistance from US to
shore up political support
Sullivan 13 (Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, "Hugo Chvezs
Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research
Services, 4/9/13, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf)//SL

Over the years, U.S. officials have expressed concerns about human rights, Venezuelas
military ? arms purchases, its relations with Iran, and its efforts to export its brand of populism to
other ? Latin American countries. Declining cooperation on anti-drug and anti-terrorism efforts
has been ? a major concern. The United States has imposed sanctions: on several Venezuelan government ? and
military officials for helping the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) with drug ? and weapons trafficking; on
three Venezuelan companies for providing support to Iran; and on ? several Venezuelan individuals for providing support to
Hezbollah. In late 2010, the Chvez ? government revoked an agreement for U.S. Ambassador-designate Larry Palmer to be
posted to ? Venezuela. The Obama Administration responded by revoking the diplomatic visa of the ? Venezuelan Ambassador
to the United States. ? Despite tensions in relations, the Obama Administration maintains
that it remains committed to ? seeking constructive engagement with Venezuela,
focusing on such areas as anti-drug and ? counterterrorism efforts. In the aftermath of
President Chvezs reelection in October 2012, the ? White House, while acknowledging differences with President Chvez,
congratulated the ? Venezuelan people on the high level of participation and the relatively peaceful election process. ?
Subsequently, in November 2012, the State Departments Assistant Secretary of State for
Western ? Hemisphere Affairs, Roberta Jacobson, engaged in a conversation with Vice
President Maduro ? about improving bilateral relations, including greater cooperation
on counternarcotics issues. ? In early January 2013, the State Department reiterated that
the United States remained open to ? dialogue with Venezuela on a range of issues of
mutual interest. In light of the setback in ? President Chvezs health, a State Department spokesman
maintained on January 9, 2013, that ? regardless of what happens politically in Venezuela, if
the Venezuelan government and if the ? Venezuelan people want to move forward
with us, we think there is a path thats possible.11? In response to President Chvezs death, President
Obama issued the following statement: ? At this challenging time of President Hugo Chvezs passing, the United States
reaffirms its ? support for the Venezuelan people and its interest in developing a constructive relationship ? with the
Venezuelan government. As Venezuela begins a new chapter in its history, the ? United States remains committed to policies
that promote democratic principles, the rule of ? law, and respect for human rights.? While the Presidents statement did not
offer traditional condolences, the State Department ? maintains that it expressed U.S. sympathy to Chvezs family and to the
Venezuelan people.13? Many Latin American and other foreign leaders have expressed their condolences to Venezuela on ?
Chvezs passing. The White House statement focused on the U.S. interest in getting cooperative ? bilateral relations back on
track while at the same time reiterating that the United States is ? committed to promoting democratic practices and respect
for human rights. A number of other ? statements by Members of Congress also expressed hope for a new era in U.S.-
Venezuelan ? relations. ? While some observers contend that Chvezs passing and the beginning of a new political era in ?
Venezuela could ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation ? that this will happen quickly.
In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming ? electoral campaign could delay any forward movement
in improving bilateral relations.14 Just ? hours before Chvezs death on March 5, Vice President Maduro announced
that two U.S. ? military attachs were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly
attempting to provoke ? dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to
blame Chvezs sickness on the United ? States. State Department officials strongly denied the
Venezuelan charges regarding the attachs, ? and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two
Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official ? in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in
Washington).15? Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chvez
government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is
being employed by the PSUV once again in ? the current presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013,
Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that ? Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about
improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with ? Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments that
Jacobson had made in a Spanish ? newspaper; Jacobson had said that Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent
elections. A ? senior U.S. official reportedly said that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over ? whether
bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another ? strange accusation by Maduro is that
two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to ? kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State
Department strongly rejected ? the allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.17 Looking ?
ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV
leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized
as a potential new PSUV ? government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating
economy.

Link International Ally Crowdout
Economic cooperation with China, Russia, and Brazil resources critical to
maintain Maduros political power - Maduro will maintain power until
December 2013, but coming municipal elections could doom agenda if his
opponents make gains.
Renuncio13 - Senior Associate, Intelligence & Analysis, London (Irenea, Risk
Advisory, Venezuela: strategic risk outlook for 2013, 6/19/2013,
http://news.riskadvisory.net/index.php/2013/06/venezuela-strategic-risk-
outlook-for-2013/) //CT
This intelligence suggests that the long-term political future of Maduro remains uncertain at this stage. But while
Cabellos stand could ultimately pose a threat to the president in the long term, Maduro
seems to have the ability to govern for the remainder of 2013. A former Chavista official
tells us that the rivals appear to need each other to govern. According to this source, Maduro
needs someone to keep the armed forces in check, while Cabello needs to
appear to respect Chvezs wish for Maduro to follow as his successor, at least in the short term.
Maduros executive power seems to be limited by Cabellos control of key state powers. However, as president he still retains
control of the countrys key oil resources through the management of state oil company, PDVSA , whose head Rafael Ramrez
remains a close ally. According to our sources, the Cuban government provides Maduro with
intelligence in exchange for economic support, and has been instrumental in
providing the president with parallel military and police intelligence to that
controlled by Cabello. Maduro constantly refers to plots to oust him, and relies on Cuban security, as he seems to
mistrust Cabello. These indicators suggest that Maduro has resources at his disposal to secure his
immediate political survival. In addition, several countries tacitly support Maduros continuation in power.
As former foreign affairs minister, Maduro knows most international leaders personally
and has the tacit support of powers such as China, Brazil and Russia , which were
the first countries to congratulate him after the election. All of these countries seem to support the
status quo and the continuation of key contracts in the energy, construction
and food industries.

*US economic engagement pushes China, Brazil and Russia out of the
Venezuela causing Maduro to lose necessary international support from
Russia, China, and Brazil.





Impact Modules/Extensions
Ext 1NC IL Regional Stability

Venezuelan instability will spillover - Regional neighbors economically
dependent on Venezuela
Gmez, 3-12-13, (Eduardo J., Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of Chavez's
alliance, CNN, Internal Bank News, March 12, 2013) EC
Chvez's death is certainly changing the political calculus in Venezuela , but will it also result in a broader
shift that could realign much of Latin America and affect attitudes toward, and relationships with, the
United States? The answer is likely "yes." First, the grouping of nations previously opposing the
United States under Chvez's leftist alliance -- namely the "Alba" alliance,
comprised of Venezuela , Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua , and Bolivia -- could well
wither away, due to Venezuela 's ongoing recession and fears that alliance
members will no longer have Venezuela 's financial backing. When combined with reports of
Chvez's expressed desire to strengthen ties with the Obama administration, regional hostility towards the United States may decline. Since
assuming office in 1999, Chvez viewed Washington as an oppressive force manipulating Latin American politics while keeping the region
underdeveloped through its dependence on U.S. resources. In response, Chvez approached like-minded
leaders to build a coalition challenging the regional influence of the United
States. By 2005, Bolivia, Nicaragua , Cuba, Honduras and Ecuador joined
Chvez's coalition, which led to the formation of the Bolivian Alliance of the Americas, also known as Alba. Alba served as an
alternative to the Free Trade Act of the Americas, with an explicit focus on poverty reduction, but it also facilitated the unification of these
nations in their anti-American sentiments . With Chvez gone, however, there may be no one left who has the
clout to keep financing this alliance. Venezuela is Alba's largest financier,
contributing millions in aid to its members as well as oil at low prices. But
Venezuelans may believe that with ongoing poverty and inequality, their
country's needs are more important than those of Chvez's small club of
nations. This situation worries Alba members. According to Cynthia Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,
while Bolivia and Ecuador are independently wealthy and not financially
dependent on Venezuela , Cuba and Nicaragua are. Cuba receives roughly
100,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil a day, while Venezuela accounted for $8.3
billion of Cuba's $20 billion in foreign trade in 2011. Chvez also paid
approximately $6 billion annually for 40,000 Cuban doctors and nurses,
according to Reuters. Cuban citizens fear that Chvez's death will push them
back to the days of the post-Cold War recession, when Russia gradually withdrew its funding for Cuba.
Meanwhile, Nicaragua has received approximately $500 million a year in loans and
oil credits, increasing to $609 million in 2011, while earnings from
agricultural exports to Venezuela increased from $2 million in 2006 to $300
million in 2011. But alliance members also realize that they have options. Nicaragua 's economic minister, Bayardo Arce, recently
stated that it's time to diversify Nicaragua 's economic relations with China, Europe and the United States, mainly because Nicaragua has "to
anticipate that Alba is not going to be permanent." Cuba may also seek to strengthen its relations with Brazil, its second-largest trade partner in
the region. In fact, both governments already have plans to engage in several trade and infrastructure projects and are ramping up trade, mainly
in sugar exports.


Impacts Cuba
Economic instability in Venezuela will spillover to Cuba economic
interdependence
Keppel 13 - Director of Empowerment Initiatives at Univision News (Stephen, What
Chvez's Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S., 3/16/13, ABS News,
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-
us/story?id=18669003)//MC
According to figures from the state-owned oil company PDVSA, in 2011 Venezuela sent 243,500 barrels of oil a day (or
around 8 percent of its production) to 16 countries across Latin America. Yet the absence of Chvez and the
potential drawdown of economic support would have the biggest impact on Cuba. That country
receives more than 100,000 barrels of discounted oil per day and billions of dollars each year in
exchange for Cuban medical personnel, technology experts, political consultants and other
"professionals."
*Cuban economic collapse impact find from Cuba Aff file
Impacts Nicaragua
Venezuelan instability will spillover - Nicaraguas economy dependent on
Venezuela
Rogers, 10 (Tim, Author for Beats-North America, Has Nicaragua found its silver
bullet? - Exports to Venezuela have skyrocketed but Nicaragua could be trusting its
fate to a house of cards. Beats, Internal Bank News, 7-25-13) EC
MANAGUA, Nicaragua Nicaragua s exponential export growth to Venezuela has its
government singing the praises of Hugo Chavez's socialist alliance. But, economists warn, once the
wonderment ceases, Nicaragua could be left with a nasty hangover. Since Nicaraguan
President Daniel Ortega returned to power three and a half years ago, exports to Venezuela have jumped by
nearly 6,000 percent, from $2 million in 2006 to $119 million in 2009 an
amount that is projected to double again this year. Venezuela is now Nicaragua
s second-biggest export market behind the United States a remarkably fast achievement
considering three years ago Venezuela didnt even rank in Nicaragua s top 25. Though Nicaragua has always relied
heavily on Venezuelan oil imports, it has only recently started to reciprocate
by exporting beans, beef and cattle. Ortega claims the numbers offer convincing proof that the fair-trade
economic model of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas is redefining international relations in a world dominated by savage capitalism.
The alliance, known as ALBA, is a a leftist cooperation agreement between
Venezuela , Cuba, Nicaragua , Ecuador, Bolivia and three small Caribbean
nations. Originally formed as a socialist alternative to U.S.-led free-trade advances in Latin America, ALBA has evolved into a
Venezuelan-bankrolled effort to promote political, commercial and cultural unity among likeminded countries in Latin America. But five years
after its inception, critics argue ALBA is little more than a clubhouse of impoverished
nations dependent on Venezuelan oil and a political platform for Chavez
arbitrary style of leadership.
*Nicaragua instability impact

Ext IL Cuban Instability & Nicaragua
Cuba and Nicaragua economically dependent on Venezuela
Gomez, 3-12-13, (Eduardo J, Special to CNN, Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of
Chavez's alliance, CNN Wire, Internal Bank News, 7-25-13) EC
This situation worries Alba members. According to Cynthia Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, while
Bolivia and Ecuador are independently wealthy and not financially dependent on
Venezuela , Cuba and Nicaragua are. Cuba receives roughly 100,000 barrels
of Venezuelan oil a day, while Venezuela accounted for $8.3 billion of Cuba's
$20 billion in foreign trade in 2011. Chvez also paid approximately $6 billion
annually for 40,000 Cuban doctors and nurses, according to Reuters. Cuban citizens fear that
Chvez's death will push them back to the days of the post-Cold War recession, when Russia gradually withdrew its funding
for Cuba.

Impacts Coup
Maduro on brink of losing military support and causing violent coup this turns
case
Mander, 13 the FT's Venezuela and Caribbean correspondent (Benedict, Maduro
needs military's loyalty, The Financial Times Limited, 4/7, ABI/INFORM
Complete)//CC

Although Mr Maduro has ample experience as a trade union activist, legislator and diplomat, he may struggle to maintain the
fierce loyalty that Chvez created among senior military officials, perhaps the most powerful faction in the disparate
movement known as chavismo. There are concerns in the military high command about
Maduro, says Antonio Rivero, a retired general who left the army in 2010 in protest at Cuban influence, and is now
affiliated with the opposition. Some question Mr Maduros legitimacy, others his competence, while others are suspicious of
his status as a civilian. Chvez knew how to talk to the army, he knew how to demand obedience and discipline. Maduro
hasnt the slightest idea, adds Gen Rivero, describing him as the complete opposite to Chvez in the armys eyes. Its an
issue that is being monitored, evaluated and discussed internally, both by chavistas and non-chavistas. The armys
presence in government is strong. During the former tank commanders 14-year rule, he spread martial
ideals in an attempt to achieve a civic-military union. Today, former military officers run 11 of the
20 state governorships held by Venezuelas United Socialist party, and account
for a quarter of the cabinet. That includes the defence minister, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, who explicitly
backed Chvezs handpicked successor after his death on March 5. Now more than ever, the armed forces must unite to
ensure Maduro is the next elected president of all Venezuelans, the admiral said. The opposition, already scandalised by a
115,000-strong militia set up by Chvez to defend his Bolivarian revolution, strongly rejected Admiral Moleros statement,
pointing out that the constitution forbids the armed forces to take sides. The opposition even claims there is a plan to use
military resources to intimidate Venezuelans into voting for Mr Maduro. Mr Maduro has been backed by other key military
figures too, including Diosdado Cabello, the head of the national assembly who participated alongside Chvez in the 1992 coup
attempt, even though he is widely considered Mr Maduros most powerful rival. With his strong military
following, some question how long that loyalty will last. Either way, the armys support is
crucial for any president. Very lamentably, political power in Venezuela has always depended
on two things: oil wealth and the armed forces, said Roco San Miguel, who runs Citizen Control,
which monitors Venezuelan security issues. Ms San Miguel argues that the armed forces are split into opposing factions, some
of which are concerned about the prospect of a Maduro presidency. Especially sensitive is how he will respond to accusations
concerning a group of high-ranking officers dubbed the Cartel of the Suns, because of the gold stars worn on their epaulettes.
Under Chvez, Venezuela became an important transshipment hub for
trafficking cocaine to the US and Europe. Walid The Turk Makled, a drug lord captured in 2011,
claims he had as many as 40 generals in his pay. Since 2008, the US Treasury Department has
also accused a number of senior military and government officials of being
kingpins and collaborating with the Colombian rebel group FARC, including the exchange of weapons
for drugs. They include former defence minister and head of the army, Henry Rangel Silva, now governor of Trujillo state, and
former interior minister and retired naval officer Ramn Rodrguez Chacn, now governor of Gurico state. The government
has denied these accusations. Military officials have also been accused of involvement in other dubious activities, such as
illegal gold mining after 43 soldiers were captured in southern Bolvar state by irate indigenous groups this year, and petrol
smuggling, a business which could yield as much as a billion dollars each year. Whether Mr Maduro is seen
as a threat or a help to the militarys interests remains to be seen. Gen Rivero thinks
he may have to become very generous to keep some officers happy, through pay rises or handing out new cars. However,
Venezuela may have trouble keeping up the immense spending on Russian arms that Chvez indulged in to keep the military
happy. Most analysts reject the threat of a coup, but it is not inconceivable. In the last century,
five years havent gone by without groups of officers being involved in
conspiratorial activities, said Domingo Irwin, a Venezuelan military historian. Indeed, Hugo Chvez was one of
them.

Ext IL Maduro strength prevents coup

Maduros must maintain strong military support to prevent a coup
Lotitto, 13 The founder and director of Producto Editorial Group in Caracas, Venezuela (Ral, Chvismo After
Chvez, Project Syndicate, 5/6, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-future-of-ch-vismo-in-venezuela-by-ra-l-
lotitto)//CC

With little hope of restoring Venezuelas regional authority, Maduro will have to focus on safeguarding his tenuous leadership
position at home. This means that forging a strong partnership with the military is
essential. The military embodies the most extreme institutional transformation that Chvez achieved in Venezuela.
Under his leadership, what was once an apolitical and non-deliberative institution as is standard in a democracy became
the engine of Chvezs twenty-first-century socialism. Just as the Argentine working class formed Juan Perns electoral base
70 years ago, Venezuelas armed forces served as Chvezs most steadfast supporters, executing his authority throughout the
country under the motto, Country, socialism, or death. As Chvezs health deteriorated, however, so did the mottos
significance. But the overwhelming military presence in government ministries and
institutions, state-owned companies, provincial governments, and private
businesses remains intact. The military has effectively achieved a coup dtat
without any struggle. Maduro seems to have the militarys support at least
for now. Whether or not the partnership lasts will depend on how Maduro
tackles Venezuelas many problems, including high inflation, a soaring crime rate, pervasive corruption,
economic stagnation, low productivity, supply shortages, capital flight, insufficient investment, weak institutions, and a lack of
respect for the rule of law.

Military has political strength and key to resources and trade in Venezuela
Minaya, 13 Writer for Wall Street Journal (Ezequiel, Military Poses Risk for Next Venezuela Leader, The Wall Street
Journal, 4/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324695104578416943869466554.html) //CC

But Mr. Maduro has never been a soldier. Experts say that could present a challenge if he takes up the
mantle of Mr. Chvez, an ex-army tank commander who boosted the sway of the military in government. "I think Maduro
has an enormous problem, he doesn't understand the military world," said Roco
San Miguel, head of Citizen Control, a Venezuela nonprofit that tracks military issues. "Without Chvez, who is going to sit on
top of this military hierarchy that has co-opted public administration?" More Nearly half of Venezuela's 23
states have a former military officer as governor, while a quarter of the
executive cabinet is composed of members of the armed forces. The army also
controls the ports, in a country where currency controls have created
shortages and a thriving black market in everything from dollars to milk.

Turns Case Democracy
US engagement undermines democracy in Latin America -
Christy 13 (Patrick, Senior Policy Analyst for Republican National Committee, Analyst for National Republican
Congressional Committee, Clerk at International practice, Manfred Worner Fellow, Publius Fellow, BA from Vanderbilt,
6/13/13, US Overtures To Maduro Hurt Venezuelas Democratic Opposition,
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/06/13/us-overtures-to-chavez-successor-maduro-hurt-
venezuelas-opposition)//JLev
In light of all this, it remains unclear why the Obama administration seeks, in Secretary Kerry's words, "an
ongoing, continuing dialogue at a high level between the State Department and the
[Venezuelan] Foreign Ministry" let alone believe that such engagement will lead to
any substantive change in Maduro's behavior. To be sure, Caracas's recent release of jailed American
filmmaker Timothy Tracy is welcome and long overdue. However, it is clear that the bogus charges of espionage against Tracy
were used as leverage in talks with the United States, a shameful move reminiscent of Fidel Castro's playbook. While
Secretary Kerry said that his meeting with his Venezuelan counterpart included discussion of human rights and democracy
issues, the Obama administration's overall track record in the region gives reason for concern. President Obama failed to
mention Venezuela or Chavez's abuse of power during his weeklong trip to the region in 2011. And while Obama refused at
first to acknowledge the April election results, the State Department has since sent very different signals. Indeed, Secretary
Kerry declined even to mention Venezuela directly during his near 30-minute address to the plenary session of the
Organization of American States in Guatemala last week. For Venezuela's opposition, the Obama
administration's eagerness to revive relations with Maduro is a punch to the
gut. Pro-Maduro legislators in the National Assembly have banned opposition lawmakers from committee hearings and
speaking on the assembly floor. Other outspoken critics of the regime face criminal charges, and government officials
repeatedly vilify and slander Capriles. What's worse, if the United S tates grants or is perceived to grant
legitimacy to the Maduro government, that could give further cover to the regime
as it systematically undermines Venezuela's remaining institutions.



**Aff**
Non-Unique US-Venezuela Relations

Maduro open to improve relations with U.S.
NTD TV 7/24 (Venezuelas Maduro Conditions U.S. Relations on End to Imperialism, 7/24/13,
http://www.ntd.tv/en/news/world/south-america/20130724/81817-
venezuela39s-maduro-conditions-us-relations-on-end-to-imperialism.html)//AD
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro told supporters on Tuesday (July 23) that better relations with
Washington was only possible if the United States changed its tact towards Latin America.
[Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela]: "Do you want to have good relations with the United States? This does not
depend on just us, it depends on the U.S.. If they can rectify their policy and are able to,
which I doubt, there will be another position, we will renew dialogue. The government of the United States should reconsider its imperialistic
attitude on Latin America and the Caribbean and its aggression towards Venezuela. When they rectify this, here we will wait with our hands
stretched and as usual a smile.
US-Venezuelan relations increasing now Kerry meeting proves
NYT, 7/6/13 (WILLIAM NEUMAN and RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD, Journalists, Kerry Meets With Official Of
Venezuela To Set Talks, 7/6/13, p.A9, L-N)//CT

After months of tensions between the United States and Venezuela, Secretary of State John Kerry met on Wednesday
with the Venezuelan foreign minister, Elas Jaua, in Antigua, Guatemala, and announced the start of
talks aimed at improving relations between the two countries.
The overture came after another hopeful sign, Venezuela's release from jail and subsequent expulsion of an Ameri-can
documentary filmmaker who had been accused of seeking to undermine the government. The filmmaker, Tim Tra-cy, was
put on a commercial flight to Miami on Wednesday morning.
''We agreed today, both of us, Venezuela and the United States, that we would like to see our
countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship,''
Mr. Kerry said after meeting with Mr. Jaua on the sideline of a session of the General Assembly of the Organization of
American States. American officials said Venezue-la had requested the meeting.
Appearing separately, Mr. Jaua said, ''We have faith and confidence that this meeting marks the start of a relation-ship of
respect.''
The two men were photographed shaking hands in what a senior Obama administration official said appeared to be the
first public meeting of top officials from the two countries since President Obama and the Venezuelan president at the
time, Hugo Chvez, shook hands in a brief encounter at a regional summit meeting in 2009.
Mr. Kerry said the countries had agreed ''that there will be an ongoing and
continuing dialogue at a high level'' between the State Department and the
Venezuelan Foreign Ministry.

US-Venezuela relations improving normalizing relations now
Lee 13 Lawyer, author and has worked as an investigative journalist for the UN,
the AP and many others (Matthew Kerry says US, Venezuela on tracks to better
ties, The Associated Press, 6/5/13, http://bigstory.ap.org/article/kerry-eyes-
better-ties-venezuela) // CC
ANTIGUA, Guatemala (AP) The United States and Venezuela have agreed to begin a
high-level dialogue with the aim of restoring ambassador-level relations and
ending more than a decade of steadily deteriorating ties, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
said Wednesday. On his first trip to Latin America since taking office and after meeting Venezuela's foreign minister in the first
cabinet-level discussion between the two nations in at least several years, Kerry said he was hopeful that a
rapprochement could be achieved. The meeting, which came at Venezuela's request, took place just hours
after Venezuela released from prison an American filmmaker who had been jailed on espionage charges, removing an
immediate irritant in the relationship. Kerry thanked Foreign Minister Elias Jose Jaua for the release of Timothy Tracy, calling
it a "very positive development" and said he and his counterpart had spent about 40 minutes going over in detail areas in
which the two countries could cooperate. "We agreed today both of us, Venezuela and the
United States that we would like to see our countries find a new way
forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the
ways to do that," he told reporters after the meeting. It took place in Guatemala on the sidelines of the annual
Organization of American States general assembly. "We agreed today there would an ongoing, continuing dialogue at a high-
level between the State Department and the foreign ministry and we will try to set out an agenda on which we agree on things
we can work on together," Kerry said. He said the two countries aim to "begin to change the
dialogue between our countries and hopefully quickly move to the
appointment of ambassadors between our nations." That process, he said, could lead
"ultimately to a series of steps that will indicate to the people of both countries as well as to the region that we're finding a way
forward to a more constructive and understandable relationship." The two countries haven't had ambassadors posted in each
other's capitals since 2010 near the height of the estrangement between the U.S. and late populist Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez, who died in March. The Obama administration has been eager to mend ties with Venezuela since the death of Chavez,
who delighted in tweaking the United States and pursued policies that U.S. officials regarded as hostile. However, until
Wednesday there had been little to show for the outreach. In fact, U.S.-Venezuelan relations had
been especially tense in recent months. Nicolas Maduro, a Chavez protege who claimed
victory in the presidential election, expelled two U.S. military attaches in March the same day Chavez
died, accusing them of trying to foment instability, and Tracy's arrest came amid domestic political turmoil over the election to
replace Chavez. In addition to being the first ministerial level meeting between the two nations since 2009, Wednesday's talks
were the first significant contact between the two since the disputed April 14 election to replace Chavez. The opposition is still
contesting the results. Washington is willing to work with Maduro's new government
but has said opposition questions about the electoral process must be addressed. The Obama administration has backed
opposition candidate Henrique Capriles' call for a full recount. But Kerry offered his thanks to Maduro,
referring to him as president, after his meeting with the foreign minister. "I want to thank the foreign
minister, I want to thank President Maduro for taking the step to meet here on
the sidelines of this conference," Kerry said. "I think it was a very important step."
U.S. officials have said despite the desire to move forward with a new chapter
in ties with Venezuela, Washington would not stop expressing concerns about
democracy and human rights in the country, particularly after the election.

Relations increasing coming ambassador appointments prove
Herald Tribune 6/13 (Newspaper, 6/13/13, Proquest, Venezuela, US may exchange ambassadors later this
year, http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1366724182)//JL
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elas Jaua said last Thursday that he hopes his country and
the United States will be able to exchange ambassadors by the end of
the year as diplomatic relations between the two countries are
normalized. Jaua, who is considered the third-most-powerful man in the Venezuelan government, told
EL PAS in a brief interview that the late President Hugo Chvez had pushed for the
normalization of relations with Washington before he died from cancer on
March 5. "We have agreed [with the United States] on a meeting point, and also that our relationship will be one of mutual
respect so that we can appoint ambassadors later this year," the foreign minister said
during a side interview at the Organization of American States (OAS) summit in Antigua, Guatemala. Jaua met with US
Secretary of State John Kerry for 40 minutes last week to discuss the next moves. Relations between Washington and
Caracas soured in 2010 when Chvez accused the United States of spying and trying to destabilize his socialist
government. Kerry's meeting with Jaua is "the result of a process that began in November, [after being] authorized by
Commander Chvez for the then-foreign minister and now-president, Nicols Maduro," he said. Washington has never
officially recognized Maduro's election victory, something that has angered the Caracas government. President Obama has
only said that he had hoped the Venezuelan authorities would agree to a recount as demanded by defeated opposition
candidate Henrique Capriles. When asked whether official recognition would lead
to improved bilateral relations, Jaua said that "it wasn't necessary."
"Venezuela has a legitimate and constitutional government headed by Nicols Maduro," the foreign minister said. " We
haven't broken relations ." Jaua said that issues concerning Venezuela's political situation were not
brought up during the meeting with Kerry. " There is a stable situation in Venezuela . The
government of Nicols Maduro is working hard to overcome the challenges it faces
in the economy, security and fixing the electoral system." In another issue, Jaua said that in September, Venezuela will
abandon its participation in the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.

No Threshold
Venezuela will maintain regional power oil and trade
opportunities means control
WA Post, 13 (Emilia Diaz-Struck and Juan Forero, Journalists, New Venezuelan leader wins support in region,
5/11, p.A6, L-N)//CT

Overall, though, Maduro garnered praise from respected leaders such as Uruguayan President
Jos "Pepe" Mujica, who during Maduro's visit to Montevideo on Tuesday gushed about Venezuela's new role in the
regional trade group, Mercosur, of which Uruguay is a founding member. Maduro in turn pledged "a
permanent supply of petroleum" to Uruguay. In Caracas last Sunday, Maduro
oversaw a gathering of the small Central American and Caribbean countries that make up the
Petrocaribe alliance, in which Venezuela provides cut-rate oil. Maduro
announced that two new members, Honduras and Guatemala, would be incorporated into Petrocaribe. Gargantuan
Brazil, the world's seventh-largest economy, also sees big economic opportunities in a
country deeply dependent on imported food and open to Brazil's
biggest construction firms. Rousseff said that under Maduro, the two countries
would increase their trade, which in 2012 totaled $6 billion. "I'm sure that with President Maduro, I
will have the same high-level relationship that I had with President Chvez," Rousseff said.

No IL Venezuela Unstable Inevitably

Inflation and food shortage causing instability now
Renuncio13 - Senior Associate, Intelligence & Analysis, London (Irenea, Risk
Advisory, Venezuela: strategic risk outlook for 2013, 6/19/2013,
http://news.riskadvisory.net/index.php/2013/06/venezuela-strategic-risk-
outlook-for-2013/) //RGP

After three years of a relative absence of civil unrest, protests have dramatically increased
throughout Venezuela since the election, posing a challenge to Maduro who won
the April election by only 234,935 votes against opposition leader Henrique Capriles. According to a report released last week
by the independent think tank the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflicts (OVCS) demonstrations were up
by 550% between April and March this year. The institution registered at least 403 countrywide
protests in April, compared to 62 in March. A large percentage of the protests since April seem
to have been directly associated with the election, with about 40% of the demonstrations
labelled by the OVCS as politically motivated. However, hardship issues have become increasingly
important over that period, with housing, labour rights, insecurity and
economic hardship accounting for about 50% of the protests in April, according to
the think tank. Although there is no hard data to confirm whether the escalation in protest activity has carried over into May,
local press reports indicate that protests continued last month. In May alone, protests over disruption to water services took
place in Caracas on 20 May, with locals blocking roads on the outskirts of La Urbina and Petare and closing the capitals
Francisco Fajardo highway. Demonstrations and labour activism have spread to
other cities outside the capital too: shopkeepers staged a 48-hour strike, which 1,250 local businesses
adhered to on 27 May in the city of Cuman (Sucre state) against growing insecurity. Meanwhile, university teachers
associated with the Fapuv union launched a countrywide indefinite strike over pay last week, affecting most of the countrys
universities. Economic hardship driving activism Growing food shortages have also been a
driving factor of activism on social networking sites: the hashtag #GolpeAlEstomago (#punch
on your belly) has gained increasing prominence on Twitter over the past few days. Venezuelans have used it to share photos
of empty supermarket shelves, while shortages of basic staples such as toilet paper dominate the local headlines. Our local
sources in Venezuela tell us that shortages are this time worse than ever before in the country. The opposition, which
remains well organised, has so far created a committee of protection against shortages which offers a hotline to give people
advice on where and when to find basic products. The shortages are also affecting Maduros
support base, with in-country sources reporting that moderate Chavistas are
also starting to protest about the issue, criticising Maduro for failing to live up
to their expectations. The shortages are one of the most visible results of the dire state of the economy. The
official index of shortages, which measures the lack of commercial goods in supermarkets, rose to 21.3% in the first four
months of the year, four times above average, according to data cited by the Venezuelan Central Bank. Meanwhile,
inflation has eroded relative income. According to IMF data, Venezuelas inflation rate reached over
30% in 2012, one of the highest in the world, and appears to have remained at similar rates this year. In the first four months
of the year, food prices increased by 16.2% and year-on-year inflation reached 29%, according to the Venezuelan Central
Bank. The situation looks unlikely to improve in the coming months, as Maduro seems incapable or unwilling to change
economic policy. Shortly after the election, Maduro announced that the government had decided to import huge volumes of
food and household staples including 50m rolls of toilet paper. But the measure, while it is likely to partially resolve the
problem in the coming weeks, seems unsustainable. State-controlled prices and capital controls remain in place, and high
inflation rates continue to discourage local production and drive further shortages. Furthermore, the governments
serious mismanagement of state-owned supermarkets, and corruption
throughout retail supply chains means that food shortages seem likely to
continue despite two currency devaluations this year.


No Impact Coup
Coup wont happen Maduro denies military action
Fox News Latino, 13 (Venezuela's Defense Minister Would Never Support A Coup To Unseat Maduro, Fox News
Latino, 6/2, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/06/02/venezuela-defense-minister-would-never-support-coup-
to-unseat-president-nicolas/)//CC

Venezuela's defense minister would never entertain the idea of supporting a
military coup to unseat President Nicolas Maduro. Adm. Diego Molero also said that
Venezuela's military takes advice from Cubans but that they do not influence its decisions. Molero's statements on Sunday
during a television talk show appear to reflect official concern over the opposition's recent release of a recording allegedly
showing an influential pro-government figure discussing coup rumors with a Cuban intelligence officer, a conversation that
seemed to highlight Cuban influence in the oil-rich nation. In the lengthy conversation, the purported voice of influential TV
talk show Mario Silva discusses a power struggle between Maduro and National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, whom
he accuses of conspiring against the president amid rumors of "saber rattling" in the military. The speaker on the recording
suggests Cabello's allies are behind false rumors that Molero might back an attempt to oust Maduro, who is close to Cuba's
leaders and is said by analysts to have less backing in the military. Silva alleged the recording was a fraud, but his show was
pulled from state TV after the conversation's release. Maduro squandered a double-digit lead in less than two weeks, but
defeated challenger Henrique Capriles by a razor-thin margin on April 14 in an election to replace the late President Hugo
Chavez. On Sunday, former Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel asked Molero on his talk
show if "democratic and institutional stability is guaranteed in Venezuela," if a coup attempt were possible.
Molero turned his head, looked straight into the camera and responded: "It's
impossible." "I am a loyal guarantor of the constitutional concept that Maduro remain in the government until the
people decide otherwise," Molero said, adding for emphasis: "It's impossible that such an idea would go through my head."
Capriles has repeatedly complained about what he calls Cuba's growing influence over Venezuela's government and military
under Maduro, whose first postelection foreign trip was to Havana. Cabello has denied plotting against
Maduro and called for unity among the political heirs of Chavez, who are struggling
with widespread discontent over worsening food shortage, rampant power outages and decreasing oil production.


Link Turn E/E Consolidates Maduros Power


DA non-unique and turn oil investment starting already and further US FDI
critical to prevent Venezuelan economic collapse this card accounts for neg
internal link analysis and concludes FDI still key
Metzker 13 (Jared, studies American Foreign Policy at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies, 6/17/13, Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend US-Venezuela Relations, Inter Press Service,
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/)//JL
On the sidelines of talks held earlier this month in Guatemala by the Organisation of American States (OAS), U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry met with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua, with Kerry's subsequent statements indicating that
relations could be heading in a friendlier direction. "We agreed today - both of us, Venezuela and the United States - that we
would like to see our countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the
ways to do that," Kerry said following the meeting with Jaua, which was reportedly requested by the Venezuelans. The
meeting happened on the heels of the release of Timothy Tracy, a U.S. filmmaker whom Venezuela had been holding on
accusations of espionage. His release was interpreted by many as an "olive branch" being offered by the new Venezuelan
government of Nicholas Maduro, whose presidency Washington still has not formally recognised. Only months ago, before
the death of Venezuela's long-time socialist leader Hugo Chavez, any normalisation of relations between Venezuela and the
United States seemed highly unlikely. In 2002, Chavez was briefly removed from power by a military coup d'etat that the U.S.
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had known was imminent. Chavez immediately accused the United States of having played a
part in the event. After his suspicions were confirmed partly valid, his rhetoric grew more scathing. In 2006, he famously told
the United Nations General Assembly that then-U.S. President George W. Bush was "the devil himself". Following Chavez's
death from cancer in March, however, his hand-picked successor, Maduro, the former vice-president, has not been as vitriolic
in his posturing vis-a-vis the United States. According to Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a
Washington-based think tank, Maduro has offered "conflicting signals". "Maduro has so far shifted in his
position toward the U.S. between a moderate approach and a more hard-line
one," Shifter told IPS. The new president's waffling may be a reflection of his tenuous
grip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who
enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes. In addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition
that openly challenges the legitimacy of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavez's own
former political base. Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant strength for Chavez,
more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of Venezuela's parliament and whose supporters believe he was the
rightful heir to the presidency. Maduro's legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideological
fidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to "emulate"
his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.
Still, ideological concerns may not ultimately decide the issue. Venezuela has
inherited from Chavez an economy in difficult straits, which continues to
suffer from notorious shortages and high inflation. Oil economy Over half of Venezuela's
federal budget revenues come from its oil industry, which also accounts for 95 percent of the country's exports. Estimated at
77 billion barrels, its proven reserves of black gold are the largest of any nation in the world. Despite a troubled
political relationship, its principal customer is the United States, which
imports nearly a million barrels a day from Venezuela. Venezuela's oil
industry has been officially nationalised since the 1970s, and, as president, Chavez further tightened
government control over its production. His government took a greater chunk of revenues and imposed quotas that ensured a
certain percentage would always go directly towards aiding Venezuelans via social spending and fuel subsidies. While
these measures may be popular with Venezuelans, who pay the lowest price for gasoline in the
world, critics argue such policies hampered growth and led to mismanagement of
Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA), the main state-run oil company. The same critics also point to increasing debt
levels, slowdowns in productions and accidents stemming from faulty infrastructure. In order to boost
production, PdVSA agreed in May to accept a number of major loans . This
includes one from Chevron, one of the largest U.S. oil companies, which will work with Venezuelans to
develop new extraction sites . "The oil sector is in deep trouble in Venezuela - production is down and the
economic situation is deteriorating," explained Shifter. "They know they need foreign investment to
increase production, and this is in part what has motivated Maduro to reach
out." If its economy continues to falter, Venezuela may be further tempted to
embrace the United States, which has the largest, most sophisticated fossil fuel industry in the world. Kerry's
recent words suggest that the administration of President Barack Obama would be waiting with open arms.
"Venezuela cannot confront its economic crisis and the United States at the
same time," Diana Villiers Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank, told IPS, "and
we are a pragmatic country which will deal with Maduro if it is in our interests." Indeed, Negroponte said she was
"optimistic" about the possibility of rapprochement between the two countries within the next
six months. She notes a "troika" of issues on which the United States is looking
for Venezuelan cooperation: counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and
assistance in ridding Colombia of its FARC rebels. Nonetheless, major actions remain to be
taken if normalisation is to even begin, such as the exchange of ambassadors and official U.S. recognition of the Maduro
government. Shifter (who regards the Kerry-Jaua meeting as "a small step") was not optimistic that these larger requirements
will be completed in the short term. "I don't think Washington is going to push hard to send an ambassador to Caracas," he
said. "It will probably take more time to observe the new government and see where it is going."

Liberalization will undercut Maduros opponents and increase his credibility - it
will also force other regional partners to diversify
Fair Observer, 13 a team of researchers, analysts, facilitators and problem-solvers that speak more than a dozen
languages, and have lived, worked, or studied in nearly 50 countries. (Helios Global, Change in Venezuela Yields Political and
Economic Uncertainty, Fair Observer, 6/4/13, http://www.fairobserver.com/article/change-venezuela-yields-political-and-economic-
uncertainty)//MC

Despite his declared commitment to toe his predecessors ideological line, the gravity of the economic problems
affecting Venezuela may force Maduro to depart from some of Chavezs
policies, especially those governing foreign direct investment (FDI) in Venezuela. Maduro
may elect to liberalize certain sectors of the Venezuelan economy and institute other
economic reforms in a possible bid to cater to his more moderate opponents, undercutting
segments of the opposition and bolstering his own credentials in the process. The
potential loss of a Venezuelan benefactor will also present new opportunities in
countries previously dependent on Caracas. Eager to adapt to an evolving
geopolitical order, countries previously reliant on Venezuela will seek out new partners
and, potentially, sources of FDI.
Openness to US will consolidated Maduros power Kerry proves
WA Post, 13 (Editorial Board, An unexpected lifeline, 6/12, p.A14, L-N)//CT

NICOLAS MADURO, the former bus driver chosen by Hugo Chvez to lead Venezuela after his death, has been
struggling to consolidate his position since being declared the victor in a questionable presidential
election in April . With the economy stalling, inflation spiking and shortages
spreading, the new president appears at a loss about how to respond, other than to blame
domestic and foreign enemies. Nor has he been able to overcome a serious split in the Chavista
movement between his own, Cuba-backed clique and another based in the
military.
Perhaps most alarming for Mr. Maduro, an energized opposition has refused to accept the election outcome; its ca-pable
leader, Henrique Capriles, has been gaining sympathy around the region. The president of
neighboring Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, met with Mr. Capriles on May 29, prompting paroxysms of rage from Mr.
Maduro and his aides. Other Latin American governments, while avoiding a confrontation with
Caracas, have made it clear they regard the new leader's legitimacy as questionable; the
regional group Unasur called for an audit of the election results.
One government, however, has chosen to toss Mr. Maduro a lifeline: the United
States. Last week Secretary of State John F. Kerry took time to meet Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on the
sidelines of an Organization of American States meeting, then announced that the Obama
administration would like to "find a new way forward" with the Maduro
administration and "quickly move to the appointment of ambassadors." Mr. Kerry
even thanked Mr. Madu-ro for "taking steps toward this encounter" - words that the state-run media trumpeted.
What did Mr. Maduro do to earn this assistance from Mr. Kerry? Since Mr. Chvez's death in March, the Venezue-lan
leader has repeatedly used the United States as a foil. He expelled two U.S. military attaches posted at the embassy in
Caracas, claiming that they were trying to destabilize the country; he claimed the CIA was provoking violence in order to
justify an invasion; and he called President Obama "the big boss of the devils." A U.S. filmmaker, Timothy Tracy, was
arrested and charged with plotting against the government - a ludicrous allegation that was backed with no evidence.
Though Mr. Tracy was put on a plane to Miami on the day of the Kerry-Jaua encounter, Mr. Kerry agreed to the meeting
before that gesture.
There's nothing wrong, in principle, with diplomatic meetings or even in dispatching an ambassador to a country such as
Venezuela. The State Department has also been meeting with senior opposition leaders and has yet to say it rec-ognizes
the presidential election results. But Mr. Kerry's words amounted to a precious endorsement for
Mr. Maduro - and the Obama administration appears bent on cultivating him regardless of his actions. Perhaps the
increasingly des-perate new leader has secretly promised concessions to Washington on matters such as drug trafficking.
But with senior government and military officials involved in the transhipment of cocaine to the United States and
Europe, he is unlikely to deliver.
In short, this looks like a reset for the sake of reset, launched without regard for good timing or the cause of Venezuelan
democracy.

Impact Turn Alba Bad
ALBA collapse will increase US influence in Latin America
Gomez, 13 (Eduardo J, Special to CNN, Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of
Chavez's alliance, 3-12-13, CNN Wire, Internal Bank News, Accessed 7-25-13) EC
Chvez's death is certainly changing the political calculus in Venezuela , but will it
also result in a broader shift that could realign much of Latin America and
affect attitudes toward, and relationships with, the United States? The answer is likely "yes." First, the
grouping of nations previously opposing the United States under Chvez's
leftist alliance -- namely the "Alba" alliance, comprised of Venezuela , Cuba,
Ecuador, Nicaragua , and Bolivia -- could well wither away, due to Venezuela 's
ongoing recession and fears that alliance members will no longer have
Venezuela 's financial backing. When combined with reports of Chvez's
expressed desire to strengthen ties with the Obama administration, regional
hostility towards the United States may decline. Since assuming office in 1999, Chvez viewed
Washington as an oppressive force manipulating Latin American politics while keeping the region underdeveloped through its dependence on
U.S. resources. In response, Chvez approached like-minded leaders to build a coalition challenging the regional influence of the United States.
By 2005, Bolivia, Nicaragua , Cuba, Honduras and Ecuador joined Chvez's
coalition, which led to the formation of the Bolivian Alliance of the Americas,
also known as Alba. Alba served as an alternative to the Free Trade Act of the Americas, with an explicit focus on poverty
reduction, but it also facilitated the unification of these nations in their anti-
American sentiments . With Chvez gone, however, there may be no one left
who has the clout to keep financing this alliance. Venezuela is Alba's largest financier, contributing
millions in aid to its members as well as oil at low prices. But Venezuelans may believe that with ongoing poverty and inequality, their country's
needs are more important than those of Chvez's small club of nations.

Impact Turn Iran
Iran will exploit Venezuelan weakness to gain support for its nuclear program -
increasing US liberalization will push Iran out
Berman 12 - writes about foreign policy and national security issues (Ilan, Forbes,
Confronting Iran's Latin American Ambitions 12/04/2013,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ilanberman/2012/12/04/confronting-irans-latin-
american-ambitions/) //RGP

Over the past year, policymakers in Washington have woken up to a new threat to
U.S. security. Since October of 2011, when law enforcement agencies foiled a plot by Irans Revolutionary Guards to
assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the nations capital, U.S. officials have begun to pay attention in
earnest to Irans growing activities and influence in the Western Hemisphere.
f. The Islamic Republic, it turns out, has made serious inroads into Latin
America since the mid-2000s, beginning with its vibrant strategic partnership with the regime of Venezuelan strongman
Hugo Chavez. Today, Iran enjoys warm diplomatic ties not only to Venezuela, but to
similarly sympathetic governments in Bolivia and Ecuador as well. It has begun to exploit the regions
strategic resource wealth to fuel its nuclear program. And it is building an operational
presence in the region that poses a direct danger to U.S. security. Exactly how significant this threat is represents the subject
of a new study released in late November by the U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee. That report,
entitled A Line In The Sand, documents the sinister synergies that have been created in
recent years between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and radical
regional regimes and actorsfrom Venezuela to Mexican drug cartelson the other. Some of
these contacts, the study notes, are financial in nature, as Iran seeks to leverage Latin Americas
permissive political and fiscal environments to skirt sanctions and continue
to engage in international commerce amid tightening Western sanctions. But
these contacts could easily become operational as well. The report suggests that the standoff with Iran over its nuclear
program, and the uncertainty of whether Israel might attack Iran drawing the United States into a confrontation, only
heightens concern that Iran or its agents would attempt to exploit the porous
Southwest border for retaliation. The U.S. response, meanwhile, is still nascent. To date, only one piece
of Congressional legislationthe Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012has seriously taken up the issue of
Irans penetration of the Americas, and the potentially adverse implications for U.S. security. Fortunately, the Act has found a
receptive ear among many in Congress, and is now likely to pass the Senate with only minor modifications during the current
lame duck session of Congress. Yet, in and of itself, the Act does not constitute a comprehensive strategy for competing with
Iran in the Americasor for diluting its influence there. To the contrary, Americas strategic profile in Latin America is now
poised to constrict precipitously. As a result of looming defense cuts, and with the specter of additional, and ruinous,
sequester provisions on the horizon, the Pentagon is now actively planning a more modest global profile. To that end, back in
May, General Douglas Fraser, the outgoing head of U.S. Southern Command, the combatant command responsible for the
Americas, told lawmakers that it plans to retract to Central America and focus predominantly on the threats posed by the
regions rampant drug and arms trades. In other words, the United States is getting out of the
business of competing for strategic influence in Latin America, and doing so at
precisely the time that Iran is getting serious about it. That could end up being a costly
mistake. As the findings of the Homeland Security Committees study indicate, Irans presence south of the U.S. border
represents more than a mere annoyance. It is, rather, a potential front for Iranian action
against the United Statesone that could well be activated if and when the
current cold war between Iran and the West over the Islamic Republics
nuclear program heats up in earnest. Washington needs to be prepared should that happen. Better
yet, it needs to craft a proactive approach to confronting Iran influence and activity south of our border. That, after all, is the
surest way for us to avoid having to face Iran and its proxies here at home.

Iranian proliferation causes nuclear war.
Sokolsky 4 - executive dir. of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, (Henry
(Ed.), Taking Proliferation Seriously, Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured
Destruction, Its Origins and Practice, November 2004, p.351, Google Books)

If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations with the Gulf Coordination Council states and with Iraq, Turkey,
and Egypt, Iran's acquisition of even a nuclear weapons breakout capability could
prompt one or more of these states to try to acquire a nuclear weapons option
of their own. Similarly, if the U.S. fails to hold Pyongyang accountable for its violation of the NPT or lets Pyongyang hold
on to one or more nuclear weapons while appearing to reward its violation with a new deal--one that heeds North Korea's
demand for a nonaggression pact and continued construction of the two light water reactors--South Korea and Japan (and
later, perhaps, Taiwan) will have powerful cause to question Washington's security commitment to them and their own
pledges to stay non-nuclear. In such a world, Washington's worries would not be limited to gauging the military capabilities of
a growing number of hostile, nuclear, or near-nuclear-armed nations. In addition, it would have to gauge the reliability of a
growing number of nuclear or near-nuclear friends. Washington might still be able to assemble coalitions, but with more
nations like France, with nuclear options of their own, it would be much, much more iffy. The amount of
international intrigue such a world would generate would also easily exceed
what our diplomats and leaders could manage or track. Rather than worry about using force for
fear of producing another Vietnam, Washington and its very closest allies are more likely to grow weary of working closely
with others and view military options through the rosy lens of their relatively quick victories in Desert Storm, Kosovo,
Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Just Cause. This would be a world disturbingly similar to that of
1914 but with one big difference: It would be spring-loaded to go nuclear .

Ext Iran-Venezuelan Relations Brink
Venezuelan-Iran relations on brink now political turnover.
Berman 13 (Ilan, VP of the American Foreign Policy Council in WA, DC,March 12, 2013, "Hugo Chavez's Death Is a Blow
to Iran," US News, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/03/12/after-chavez-a-challenge-for-
iran)//SL
Even so, the departure of Chavez is bound to be a blow to Tehran. Without its most reliable broker, Iran
now faces a region in profound political flux. During his 14 years in office, Chavez had
served as the champion of anti-Americanism in Latin America. Now that mantle of leadership,
coveted by power-hungry regional leaders like Ecuador's Correa, is up for grabs. So, too, is the prevailing attitude toward
Tehran.? Coming weeks will see the emergence of a new regime in Venezuelaone
that, by all accounts, will look strikingly similar to the one that preceded it. Indeed, late last year, an ailing Chavez anointed his
anti-American vice president, Nicolas Maduro, as his heir apparent, thereby guaranteeing a preservation of his "Bolivarian"
ideas. But Maduro now faces a snap election next month, and could see his power diminished by
internal challengers as well as an increasingly capable Venezuelan opposition. In other
words, for the first time in nearly 15 years, the current regime's hold on power isn't
assured beyond the shadow of a doubt.? Neither is the relationship between Caracas and
Tehran. While Maduro can be counted on to preserve Venezuela's revolutionary character, the closeness of its
ties to the Iranian regime is suddenly an open questionone made all the more acute by the fact that
Chavez's Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will also leave the political scene in just a few months, when his term in
office ends this June.