Traffic Forecasting & Network

Planning
Lec 05
Kamran Nadeem
kamran.case@yahoo.com
Trunking
A means for providing access to users a channel from the available pool
on demand
With this a technique a small number of channels can accommodate a
large number of random users
Telephone companies use trunking theory to calculate the number of
channels/circuits required for a population
Limited servers
Large population
Terminologies
Traffic intensity is measured in Erlangs
1 Erlang = Traffic in a channel when it is completely occupied
0.5 Erlang = Channel is busy 30 minutes in a one hour period
Set-Up time: Time to allocate a channel to a user
Blocked Call: Call which cannot be completed at the time of request due
to congestion in the network
Lost Call: Same as blocked
Holding Time (H): Duration of a typical call
Load: Traffic intensity across the whole system
Request rate (): Average number of call requests in a unit time
Quality of Service (1)
A network cannot be dimensioned for the worst case peaks. Then,
occasionally the requested service is not available or the quality of the
service is reduced
The dimensioning has to made according to the stated (statistical) criteria
for the quality of service
grade of service (GoS): quality at the call level (e.g. telephone network)
quality of service (QoS): quality during a connection or session (e.g. ATM
network)
In a telephone network a call that cannot be immediately carried
may be blocked: loss system
may have to wait (ringing tone): waiting system
The GoS requirement
loss system: P (call is blocked) < x %
waiting system: P (waiting time > z seconds) < x %
Quality of Service (2)
Loss system
Call blocking may occur during the busy hour
Probabilistic, which depends on the traffic intensity during the busy hour and
the dimensioning of the network as described by Erlang's formula (so called
B formula)
Blocking probabilities in different parts of the network can summed to
approximately estimate the end-to-end blocking
Waiting system
If connecting the call is not immediately possible, the call may be put in a
waiting state
A small waiting time does not matter, a user may not notice it at all
Long waiting times are unacceptable for the users
One sets an upper limit to the waiting time, after which the call is blocked
the behavior of a waiting system is described by so called Erlang's C formula
There may be reattempts after unsuccessful calls
Quality of Service (3)
It is not reasonable to dimension the network for a very small blocking
probability, since the call may be unsuccessful due to other reasons with
a much higher probability
User is busy
User is unavailable
Wrong number
The system is designed around a 1% blocking probability rate
Quality of Service (4)
In networks other than the POTS, QoS may have different parameters
instead of or in addition to blocking probability
Internet traffic or ATM networks have
Packets or cell delays
Jitter
Lost packets
Erroneous packets
Throughput
Erlangs B Formula (1)
Assumptions
A loss system: a blocked call is cleared (no reattempts)
There are n trunks; any free trunk can be used
The arrivals constitute a Poisson process
The arrivals occur at average rate , otherwise, the arrivals are completely random
This is good model when the calls originate from a large population of independent
users
Traffic intensity is A = H
Erlangs B Formula (2)
The probability of blocked call is given by
Relates the system (n), the traffic (A) and quality of service (E)
Erlangs B Formula (3)
Example capacity table using Erlangs B system
Grade of Service (1)
Grade of Service (2)
In a blocked call cleared system, the required GOS is 0.5%. How many
users are there in the system with 5 channels if each user generates 0.1
Erlangs of traffic?
You can refer to chart or use the formula
A = ~1.13
U = A/A
u
= ~11
Grade of Service (3)
Grade of Service (4)
Grade of Service (5)
Time & Call Blocking
Time Blocking
Fraction of time when all resources are occupied
Call Blocking
Fraction of all calls that are blocked
Why do we take them as being equal?
The End