1

Thnh ph vi vai tr ng lc pht trin kinh

t quc gia: Tnh hung TP.HCM
Nguyn Xun Thnh
Thnh ph H Ch Minh
5-6 thng 6 nm 2014
Din n Chnh sch Cng chu (APPF) 2014
Tng trng kinh t TP.HCM v Vit Nam
C s tng quan mt thit gia tng trng ca TPHCM vi c nc.
Tng trng GDP Thnh ph bnh qun bng 1,6 ln so vi c nc
giai on 2001-13.
TP.HCM chim t trng 21,3% nn kinh t quc gia.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vit Nam
TP.HCM
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k v Cc Thng TP.HCM
2
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi da vo s liu ca Nin gim Thng k VN v TP.HCM
Gi tr gia tng theo ngnh: TPHCM so vi c nc
Ghi ch: = 21 nghn t ng/1 t USD.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
T

n
g

t
r

n
g

2
0
0
5
-
2
0
1
2
T trng so vi c nc, 2012
Ti chnh
Nng nghip
Khai khong
Bt ng sn
KS., Nh hng
in, nc
GDP TP.HCM/
c nc 2012
(20,3%)
Tng trng GDP TP.HCM
2005-2012 (10,76%)
CN ch bin-ch to
VH-TT-Gii
tr
Gio dc -
o to
Xy dng
Vn ti, truyn thng
Y t
Hot ng chuyn
mn v KHCN
Hnh chnh v
QLNN
Thng mi
DV khc
Tng trng n
nhiu hn t dch v.
Suy gim tng trng kinh t v nng lc cnh tranh
Nm Xp hng
2007 10/63
2010 23/63
2012 13/63
2013 10/63
Ch s cnh tranh cp tnh
Vit Nam
Tc tng trng bnh qun hng nm (%)
Giai on GDP Nng nghip Cng nghip v xy dng Dch v
1991 - 1995 12,59 4,65 16,84 10,31
1996 - 2000 10,11 1,09 13,18 8,34
2001 - 2005 10,99 4,97 12,37 10,03
2006 - 2010 11,17 4,86 10,54 11,92
2011 - 2013 9,56 5,73 7,56 11,11
Ngun: Quy hoch tng th KT-XH TP.HCM 1996-2010 cho giai on 1991-1995, Bo co KH-XH TP.HCM nm 2013 v Nin
gim Thng k TP.HCM cc nm cho nhng giai on cn li.
Xp hng
EIU 2012 109/120
EIU 2011 60/70
ECAs Asian cities 2011 21/49
Mercers 2009 150/215
Xp hng thnh ph quc t
3
TPHCM lm trung tm thng mi v dch v
Trong nhng nm gn y, ngnh dch v v ang pht
trin nhanh hn sn xut cng nghip Thnh ph. Mc d
sn xut cng nghip vn cn nhiu tim nng ng gp cho
tng trng, Thnh ph ngy cng th hin r xu hng tr
thnh trung tm thng mi v dch v.
S nhn nhn ny c phn nh trong chin lc kinh t ca
c Trung ng ln k hoch pht trin a phng ca Thnh
ph. Thng mi quc t, logistics, ti chnh v du lch l
nhng cm ngnh c u tin pht trin.
Chnh sch pht trin th nn tip tc cng c s pht trin
ca cc cm ngnh chuyn mn, nh du lch v dch v ti
chnh trung tm Thnh ph trong thi gian sp ti. ng
thi, cn c iu khon cho php phn cp hot ng thng
mi, o to chuyn mn, nghin cu v pht trin, dch v y
t v cng ng n cc khu vc mi c thit lp trong
Thnh ph.
H tng h tr pht trin cc cm dch v
Thng mi v logistics s c bit ph thuc vo vic di di
s cng hin hu trong ni v vic pht trin cc cng
container mi. K hoch pht trin cng Th Vi Ci Mp
B Ra Vng Tu v cng Hip Phc pha Nam thnh ph
mt cch ri rc nh hin nay l rt bt li cho thng mi
quc t v hot ng logistic.
Sn bay trung chuyn cnh tranh l rt quan trng i vi
ngnh du lch ca thnh ph, nhng khng c y mnh
do tin chm chm ca d n sn bay Long Thnh v
tng lai khng r rng ca sn bay Tn Sn Nht.
K hoch pht trin khu ti chnh Th Thim l kh tham
vng, nhng cn s h tr ca chnh ngnh ti chnh Thnh
ph. ti tr cho u t c s h tng cng ln mm khu
ti chnh mi ny, cn hnh thnh cc mi quan h i tc
gia chnh quyn, cc nh pht trin bt ng sn v cng
ng ti chnh.
4
Thch thc i vi pht trin kinh t
Tc nghn giao thng trong ni v cc ca ng ra vo
thnh ph
Nh : cung v chi ph
Ngp lt v tc ng bin i kh hu
Ti chnh th bn vng
Giao thng th
T l phn trm cc hnh thc di
chuyn ti thnh ph H Ch Minh
Phng tin % c i
b
% khng
c i b
i b 17.1 --
Xe p 14.4 17.4
But 1.4 1.7
Xe my 61.8 74.5
t 1.2 1.4
Taxi truyn thng v
phng tin khc
3.4 4.1
Xe m 0.7 0.8
Th phn ca cc n v cung
cp dch v xe khch cng cng
Cng ty Th phn
Cng ty xe khch Si
Gn
22%
Cng ty TNHH vn ti
TP HCM
4%
Cng ty Si Gn Star
(Lin doanh)
4%
Cc hp tc x (14) 70%
Ngun: Nghin cu Phng tin giao thng v
Nghin cu Kh thi Vng th TPHCM, thng
6/2004, Almec Corporation
Ngun: MOCPT
5
Giao thng th
Mt dn s TPHCM
H thng cc trm dng d kin
ca thnh ph H Ch Minh
Nh
xc nh kiu phn loi nh trong mi tng quan vi phn b thu
nhp h gia nh TP.HCM
TPHCM Hnh thi nh v thu nhp h gia nh
(Phn loi da trn cch tnh xp x da vo gii thch s dng t)
Nh tm khng chnh thc
Nh ph c, t khng vo c
Nh ph mi t vo c
Cn h
Bit th
Thu nhp h gia nh hng thng (triu ng)
6
Nh ca ngi nhp c v c dn
Ngun: Nghin cu Ngho th 2009
Ch bo Ngn hn
khng
ng k
Ngn
hn c
ng k
Di hn
khng
ng k
Di hn
c ng
k
Tng din tch sinh hot m
2
27 76 32 85
Loi nh
Nh tch bit vi mt h gia nh sinh
sng
15% 62% 32% 78%
Nh tch bit vi vi h gia nh sinh
sng
14% 12% 12% 11%
Cn h ring bit
1% 2% 2% 5%
Cn h chia s vi vi h gia nh
0% 0% 0% 1%
Phng trong mt cn h/nh
4% 2% 4% 1%
Phng tr hoc k tc x
58% 21% 48% 4%
Tm b/Lu ln
9% 0% 1% 0%
Qun l ri ro ngp lt
Hin nay thnh ph H Ch Minh ang thc hn Chng trnh gim
ngp nc giai on 2011 2015, nh hng n nm 2025.
Cc hot ng gim thiu tc ng ca ngp nc ang c trin
khai trong khun kh Quy hoch tng th h thng thot nc
thnh ph H Ch Minh n nm 2020
Cc d n vn ang c trin khai, v do , hiu qu chng ngp
vn cha thy ngay c.
Hn na, nhng d n ny c pht trin m khng cn nhc
n s gia tng mc nc bin v tc ng an xen gia hot ng
t nhin v ca con ngi thng ngun, h ngun cng nh
trong phm vi thnh ph.
Vn cn nhiu tranh lun xoay quanh cc bin php gim thiu
ngp ng ngn v di hn Thnh ph.
Cn pht trin qui hoch di hn trong nh gi tc ng v
phn tch chi ph li ch ca cc tnh hung khc nhau, ng thi
vn phi tip tc trin khai cc bin php trc mt.
7
Doanh thu v Chi tiu ca TP H Ch Minh
trong mt s nm tiu biu (nghn t ng)*
2004A 2009A 2010A 2012B
Doanh thu 17.7 52.0 58.8 42.8
Doanh thu chuyn nhng a phng
- Doanh thu t t ai
} 5.8 } 10.7
10.2 7.8
- Cc khon doanh thu chuyn nhng
a phng khc
3.2 2.4
Doanh thu thu chung 5.9 13.5 18.6 24.7
Ti tr v chuyn nhng 0.3 6.9 4.1 1.4
Cc khon vay 2.6 2.0 2.0
Cn i doanh thu 3.1 19.0 20.7 6.5
Chi tiu 17.4 45.1 50.1 42.8
Chi ph thng xuyn 4.9 13.3 16.1 23.8
Chi ph u t 6.5 18.1 21.3 10.1
Chi ph khc 2.0 4.3 1.4 0.9
Chi ph dch v n 0.7 2.3 1.6 1.2
Cn i thu chi 3.3 7.1 9.6 6.8
Ngun: MOF. *A = thc t, B = d ton
77% thu ngn sch trn a bn TP.HCM c iu tit ra trung ng (2011-15).
D ton chi ph ca cc d n c s h
tng c u tin cao,giai on 2011-2025
Lnh vc
Ngn t VND
Tng %
2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 Tng
Giao thng vn ti 188 242 107 537 61
in 21 32 50 103 12
Cp nc 31 25 12 68 8
X l nc thi 80 40 56 176 20
TNG 319 339 225 883 100
Tng s, t US$ 15.2 16.1 10.7 42.0
Ngun: Qui hoch tng th 2011-2025.
8
L hng vn ln v ng k, cha xc nh
TPHCM cn u t t nht 4 t -la mt nm cho c s
h tng cng cng nhm p ng cc mc tiu c
ra trong qui hoch tng th hin nay ca thnh ph, cho
sut giai on 2011-2025.
Hin ti, mc u t hng nm vo c s h tng cng
cng khng vt qu 500 triu -la, mt phn v nhng
tr hon trong trin khai d n, nhng ch yu l do
thnh ph khng th huy ng c ngun lc ti
chnh cn thit.
Khong cch huy ng thc t c th ln hn nhiu, v
qui hoch tng th khng cp cc c tnh tr cp
cn phi c cho c s h tng cng cng v ngun thu t
ph s dng khng b p chi ph xy dng h
tng (ng ch l ng st th v x l nc thi)