0%

25%
50%
75%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
IE5 IE7 IE8 IE9 IE10
Conservative accountants who
assign zero values to many
intangible benefits prefer being
precisely wrong to being vaguely
right.
Kaplan, R. Must CIM be justified by faith alone?,
Harvard Business Review, Volume 64, Number 2. 1986
low
medium
infrastructure
platform
new
sustaining
system of record
system of differentiation
vb6
buddy holly
betamax
windows xp
hyundai
bmw
chrome
firefox
Prior Probability
Initial estimate of incompatibility x 20%
A new event occurs: tools data
Probability app is broken y 85%
Probability app works Z 15%
Posterior Probability
Revised estimate app is broken

+ (1 )

59%
Prior Probability
Initial estimate of incompatibility x 8%
A new event occurs: tools data
Probability app is broken y 60%
Probability app works Z 40%
Posterior Probability
Revised estimate app is broken

+ (1 )

12%
Prior Probability
Initial estimate of incompatibility x 25%
A new event occurs: tools data
Probability app is broken y 30%
Probability app works Z 70%
Posterior Probability
Revised estimate app is broken

+ (1 )

13%
Prior Probability
Initial estimate of incompatibility x 5%
A new event occurs: tools data
Probability app is broken y 30%
Probability app works Z 70%
Posterior Probability
Revised estimate app is broken

+ (1 )

2%
the world is too
complex for certainty
used a tool
i believe i can do this
unintended
consequences
nutrition
women
equality