Kinh Te VI Mo

1
TRNG I HC NGN HNG TP.H CH MINH

KHOA GIO DC C BN
B MN KINH T

BI GING MN
KINH T V M
HC K 1 NM HC 2011-2012

Ging vin: Ths.Trn Mnh Kin
2

CNG MN HC
KINH T V M
HC K 1 NM HC 2011-2012

1. M s mn hc
2. Tng s tn ch: 3
3. iu kin tham d: Khng cn
4. Ging vin: ThS. Trn Mnh Kin;
- Email: kienkinhte2@yahoo.com (sinh vin nn add nick ny hi bi v trao
i cho thun tin).
- Facebook: kienkinhte@yahoo.com (trn FB hng ngy c link cc bi bo)
5. Gii thiu mn hc
Mn hc gii thiu nhng nt tng qut v kinh t v m; ni dung v ngha
ca cc bin s kinh t v m; nhng khi nim kinh t v m c bn nh lm pht,
tht nghip, tng trng kinh t v mt s vn khc c lin quan. Mn hc cng
gii thiu mt s m hnh cn bn v cc chnh sch kinh t v m nh chnh sch ti
kha, chnh sch tin t
6. Mc tiu ca mn hc
Gip sinh vin hiu nhng khi nim cn bn v kinh t v m nh GDP, lm
pht, tht nghip. Hiu c mt cch i cng cch thc vn hnh ca nn kinh t.
Gip sinh vin hiu v gii thch c nhng hin tng kinh t v m cn bn ang
din ra Vit Nam v trn th gii cng nh l do v h qu khi nh nc thc hin
cc chnh sch kinh t v m
Gip to cho sinh vin t duy ph phn (critical thinking), ci m, bit nhn
mt vn t nhiu kha cnh khc nhau, bit chp nhn nhng quan im khc bit,
c ci nhn tm tng th v mt vn . p dng c cch t duy ca ca kinh t
hc vo trong cuc sng hng ngy v nng cao mt s k nng mm khc (xem k
hn trang cui ca cng).
7. cng tng qut
Chng 1: Mi nguyn l ca kinh t hc
Chng 2: S liu kinh t v m
- Gii thiu mt s ch tiu trong kinh t v m nh GDP, CPI
- Phng php tnh cc ch tiu o lng sn lng quc gia
- S dng cc ch tiu trong vic so snh
3

Chng 3: L thuyt xc nh sn lng cn bng
- Cc yu t ca tng cu
- M hnh xc nh sn lng cn bng
- S nhn tng cu
- Nghch l ca tit kim
- Phn tch m hnh s nhn
- Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha
Chng 4: M hnh tng cung-tng cu
- Khi nim v ng tng cung-tng cu
- Nhng yu t tc ng vo tng cung-tng cu
- S dng tng cung-tng cu l gii cc bin ng kinh t ngn hn
Chng 5: Tin t, ngn hng v chnh sch tin t
- Khi qut v tin t v ngn hng
- Cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t
- Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t vo nn kinh t
Chng 6: Lm pht v tht nghip
- Lm pht
- Tht nghip
- Quan h gia lm pht v tht nghip
Chng 7: Kinh t v m trong nn kinh t m
- Mt s khi nim v cn cn thanh ton
- Th trng ngoi hi v t gi hi oi
- Cc chnh sch qun l t gi hi oi
Chng 8: Tng trng kinh t
- Mt s yu t tc ng ti tng trng kinh t ca mt quc gia
- Cc chnh sch ca nh nc gip kch thch tng trng kinh t
Chng 9: M hnh IS-LM
- Khi nim v ng IS-LM
- p dng m hnh IS-LM nh gi tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha v tin t
4

8. Ti liu tham kho
[1]. Ti liu bt buc: Nguyn Vn Cng (ch bin) (2008). Gio trnh nguyn l
kinh t hc v m. H Ni: NXB Gio dc.
[2]. Ti liu c thm:
Begg, D, R. Dornbusch and S. Fischer (2005). Kinh t hc. Bn dch ting Vit. H
Ni: NXB Thng k, 2007
Dng Tn Dip (2007). Kinh t v m. TP.H Ch Minh: NXB Thng k
Mankiw, N.Gregory (2002). Nguyn l kinh t hc (tp 2). Bn dch ting Vit. H
ni: NXB Thng k, 2004
Samuelson, P.A and W. D. Nordhaus (1995). Kinh t hc (tp 2). Bn dch ting
Vit. H Ni: NXB Chnh tr quc gia, 1997
V mt s quyn sch khc v kinh t v m c bn trn th trng. Khuyn
khch tham kho ti liu ting Anh.
V sch bi tp c th tham kho sch Bi tp nguyn l kinh t hc v m ca
Nguyn Vn Cng (ch bin) (dng km sch gio khoa) hoc sch bi tp ca i
hc Kinh t TP.H Ch Minh hay ca Hc vin Ti chnh c trong th vin.
Vi website v kinh t nn tham kho:
- http://www.viet-studies.info/kinhte/kinhte.htm (Trang ca TS.Trn Hu Dng)
- http://www.vneconomy.vn/ (Thi bo kinh t Vit Nam)
- http://kinhtetaichinh.blogspot.com/ (Blog ca TS.L Hng Giang)
- http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/ (Thi bo Kinh t Si gn)
- http://www.sbv.gov.vn/ (Ngn hng Nh nc)
- http://www.gso.gov.vn (Tng cc Thng k)
- http://www.kinhtehoc.com/
- http://sites.google.com/site/baohoai/Lectures (website ca ging vin Nguyn
Hoi Bo, i hc Kinh t TP.H Ch Minh, c nhiu bi ging, bi tp, thi
v mt s sch kinh t hc ni ting c dch ra ting Vit).
- http://www.studygs.net/vietnamese (Hng dn phng php hc tp)
Ngoi cc sch gio khoa, sinh vin nn tham kho mt sch ni ting, d
c c lin quan ti ch mn hc nh:
Charles Wheelan. la hay l nho. Alpha Books & NXB Lao ng X hi
Henry Hazlitt. Hiu kinh t qua mt bi hc. NXB Tri thc
Paul Krugman. S tr li ca kinh t hc suy thoi. DTBooks & NXB Tr
5

Joseph Stiglitz. FreeFall - Ri t do: Hoa K, cc th trng t do, v s sa ly
ca nn kinh t th gii. DTBooks & NXB Tr.
Todd G. Buchholz. tng mi t cc kinh t gia tin bi. NXB Tri thc. (Lu
, phn vit v Marx trong cun sch khng c trong sch in m c trn mng. Vo
Google g: Karl Marx-New Ideas From Dead Economists s ra ng dn
http://www.scribd.com/doc/6546651/Karl-MarxNew-Ideas-From-Dead-Economists.
Daniel Yergin v Joseph Stanislaw. Nhng nh cao ch huy - Cuc chin v
nn kinh t th gii. NXB Tri thc
Thomas L.Friedman. Th gii phng. NXB Tr (c bn ebook trn mng)
Thomas L.Friedman. Chic Lexus v cy Olive. NXB Khoa hc x hi (c bn
ebook trn mng)
Phil Rosenzweig. Hiu ng ho quang. VNN Publishing & NXB Tri thc
Tham kho thm v mt s cun sch c gii thiu trong bi: Khnh Chu
(2009). Nhng cun sch kinh t ton dn nn c!. Tun Vit nam.
9. Phn b chng trnh hc d kin (9 bui, mi bui 5 tit)
Lu : Di y ging vin s cung cp mt s bi c thm c lin quan ti
ch bi hc (cc bi ny c trn mng, ch cn ln Google, g tn bi vit trong
ngoc kp v nhn nt Search l s thy ng link). y l nhng bi bt buc
phi c.
Bui Ni dung Sch
1 Chng 1: 10 nguyn l ca kinh t hc v
cch t duy nh mt nh kinh t
Nguyn l kinh t hc v
m, Nguyn Vn Cng
(ch bin), tr.5-26 (di
y vit tt l SGK)
Bi c thm Chng 1:
Chng trnh Vit Nam, i hc Harvard. Bi tho lun chnh sch s 1:
La chn thnh cng, Bi hc t ng v ng Nam cho Vit Nam;
- Bi tho lun chnh sch s 2: Vt qua khng hong v tip tc y
mnh ci cch
- Bi tho lun chnh sch s 3: Nguyn nhn su xa v mt c cu ca bt
n v m
- Bi tho lun chnh sch s 4: Thay i c cu: gii php kch thch c
hiu lc duy nht
V Minh Khng. Nn mng pht trin v mnh lnh ci cch
V Minh Khng. Cht cu tin ln?
6

L ng Doanh. Ngi dn k vng nhng quyt sch ca lnh o mi
Daron Acemoglu. iu g lm mt quc gia tr nn giu c
2 Chng 2: S liu kinh t v m SGK: tr.27-62
Bi c thm Chng 2:
Thi Trinh. GDP v my ng nhn thng gp.
Nguyn Trung. Li nguyn ti nguyn v nguy c ca mt nc lm
thu.
V Huyn. Ci by ti nguyn
Nguyn Khc Vinh. Bo co Tng B th, Vit Nam khng giu ti nguyn
u
Trn Vn Th. Xc lp tinh thn Nguyn Tri trong quan h kinh t Vit
Trung
Trung Quc nhn thc v tng sn phm quc ni GDP
3 Chng 3: L thuyt xc nh sn lng SGK: tr.142-187
Bi c thm Chng 3:
Phm Mnh H. Hc thuyt Keynes v suy thoi kinh t.
Kiu Oanh. So snh suy thoi hin nay v i suy thoi 1930
Nguyn Quang A. Kinh t nh nc lm ch o: s ln ln trong t duy
4 Chng 3: L thuyt xc nh sn lng (tip)
Bi c thm Chng 3:
Nc no n nhiu nht?
Tht cht hay khng tht cht? www.Cafef.vn
V Quang Vit. Liu Vit Nam tnh ng v n cng?
Hong Hi Vn. Nh nc mnh nh nc yu (bi u tin trong lot bi)
Trn c Nguyn. Ai nui nh nc
L Hng Giang. Ni lc nh nc ln t
Paul Krugman, v sao nn ni? (t nht c Phn 1)
5 Chng 4: M hnh tng cung-tng cu SGK: tr 125-141
Bi c thm Chng 4:
7

Kgrugman, Paul. Kinh t hc, v sao nn ni (t nht c Phn 1)?
Trn Hu Dng. Khng hong kinh t v khng hong kinh t (hc)
Hong Hi Vn. Bi kch Mugabe.
Ti sao kinh t Nht "tht th"?
6 Chng 5: Tin t, ngn hng v chnh sch
tin t
SGK: tr.188-217
Bi c thm Chng 5:
Khng hong ngn sch s sm tn cng nc M
L Hng Giang. Xin ng hiu nhm khi nim in tin
L Hng Giang. Quy m ngn hng v nguy c sp h thng
Ngc Danh. Khng c tp on no ln n mc khng th sp
Don Hu Tu. M hnh no cho Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam
B quy nh li sut, v dn hay v li ch cc b
Nguyn Quang A. V li ch cc b ca h thng ngn hng hay ca ai?
V sao ngi Do Thi gii lm kinh t.
Bi Kin Thnh. Nh nc b chnh lch li sut: Nn hay khng?
Anh Qun. Kch cu khng ging ai trnh by thanh khon
Tm hiu cc khi nim:
- Ri ro o c (Moral Hazard)
- Qu ln b ph sn (Too Big To Fail)
- Tnh bt nht v thi gian (Time Inconsistency)
- Chnh sch mc tiu lm pht (Inflation Targeting Policy)
7 Chng 5: Tin t, ngn hng v chnh sch
tin t (tip theo)

8 Chng 6: Lm pht v tht nghip
Chng 7: Nn kinh t m
SGK: tr.106-123; tr.218-
240; tr.241-266
Tm hiu cc khi nim(chng 6 v 7) :
- X hi dn s (Civil Society)
- Gic m M (American Dream)
- Cn bnh H Lan (Dutch Disease)
8

- Tm l by n (trn th trng ti chnh)
- ng thun Washington (Washington Consensus)
- T do ha ti chnh
Bi c thm Chng 7:
Hunh Th Du. Th trng tin t v b ba bt kh thi
IMF thay i quan im v kim sot vn
9 Thuyt trnh tiu lun nhm + np tiu lun c
nhn

10. nh gi
- Tiu lun c nhn (30% im)
- Tiu lun nhm (20% im)
- Thi cui k (50% im). c s dng ti liu. Gm: trc nghim (15 cu) +
bi tp + tnh hung. Ch thi nhng chng c ging trn lp.
11. Mt s qui nh v hc tp
- Sinh vin phi c trch nhim hc li bi c, c trc bi mi, thc hin
cc ch m ging vin giao v nh lm. u gi mi bui hc ging vin
s tin hnh kim tra, ai khng thc hin ng qui nh s b tr vo im
gia k.
- Sinh vin phi c cc bi c thm c qui nh mi chng. Nu ging
vin kim tra m sinh vin khng nh c nhng chnh trong bi cng s
b tr im ( nh c nhng chnh trong bi c thm, sau khi c
xong, sinh vin nn ghi li nhng quan trng nht ca bi).
- Sinh vin ngh hc phi c l do chnh ng v xin php trc. Nu ging
vin gi tn kim tra bi m vng mt khng c l do, khng xin php trc
s b tr im nh ngi khng hc bi. (Nu c th c nn thu xp tham
gia hc b bui vng mt lp khc).
- Ai tr li tt cc cu hi ging vin a ra trong gi hc cng s c cng
vo im gia k.
9

12. Phng php hc tp
- Do thi gian hc ngn, khi lng kin thc li rt nhiu v kh nn sinh
vin phi ch yu t hc thng qua t c slide, cc ti liu do ging vin
gii thiu, ti liu trong th vin v t cc ngun khc. Ging vin ch gii
thch nhng vn quan trng trn lp.
- Cng mt vn l thuyt sinh vin c gng tham kho t nhiu gio trnh
khc nhau hiu su hn.
- Cn c gng c cng nhiu cng tt cc bi bo kinh t c lin quan ti
mn hc t bo ch, tp ch khoa hc, sch (t nht l phi c cc bi
c gii thiu trn) C gng vn dng l thuyt hc hiu cc vn
din ra trong thc t. Vic t c, t hc, t hiu, t vn dng mi chnh
l cch tt nht nh, o su v nm chc kin thc v mn hc chun
b cho qu trnh t hc v t nng cao chnh mnh sau ny (khng ch mn
hc ny m l t hc cc kin thc cn thit ni chung sau khi i lm).
- Hon thnh cc ch m ging vin giao v nh. y l c hi tt sinh
vin c dp tm hiu thm v cc ch then cht ca mn hc trong thc t,
rn luyn kh nng t hc, t tm ti liu, t nghin cu, kh nng tng
hp
- Trong qu trnh hc, sinh vin cn tn dng c hi nng cao k nng lm
vic nhm, k nng trnh by, thuyt trnh Nng cao k nng tm ti liu
trn Internet.
- Khuyn khch sinh vin t cu hi trc tip ti lp! Sinh vin c th t cu
hi qua mail hay YM nhng cch tt nht tp tnh t tin chnh l t cu
hi ngay ti lp, trc mt mi ngi. Trong qu trnh ging vin ging, cc
sinh vin c th t cu hi vo bt c lc no v trch nhim ca ging vin
l phi gii p thc mc ca sinh vin nn sinh vin khng cn ngi ngng
g c (t nht trong gi ca ti!).
10

13. Ghi ch
cc bn hiu hn mc tiu ca mt sinh vin khi hc i hc, di y ti
xin trch tiu chun ca Hip hi cc trng i hc th gii v mt sinh vin hin i.
Sinh vin phi l ngi:
1. C s sng to v thch ng cao trong mi hon cnh ch khng ch hc
m bo tnh chun mc;
2. C kh nng thch ng vi cng vic mi ch khng ch trung thnh vi mt
ch lm duy nht;
3. Bit vn dng nhng t tng mi ch khng ch bit tun th nhng iu
c nh sn;
4. Bit t nhng cu hi ng ch khng ch bit p dng nhng li gii
ng;
5. C k nng lm vic theo nhm, bnh ng trong cng vic ch khng tun
th theo s phn bc quyn uy;
6. C hoi bo tr thnh nhng nh khoa hc ln, cc nh doanh nghip
gii, cc nh lnh o xut sc ch khng ch tr thnh nhng ngi lm
cng n lng;
7. C nng lc tm kim v s dng thng tin ch khng ch p dng nhng
kin thc bit;
8. Bit kt lun, phn tch nh gi ch khng ch thun tu chp nhn;
9. Bit nhn nhn qu kh v hng ti tng lai;
10. Bit t duy ch khng ch l ngi hc thuc;
11. Bit d bo, thch ng ch khng ch phn ng th ng;
12. Chp nhn s a dng ch khng ch tun th iu n nht;
13. Bit pht trin ch khng ch chuyn giao...
KHAI SNG L S THOT LY CA CON NGI RA KHI TNH TRNG
V THNH NIN DO CHNH CON NGI GY RA. V THNH NIN l s bt lc
khng th vn dng tr tu ca mnh mt cch c lp m khng cn s ch o ca
ngi khc. Tnh trng v thnh nin ny l do T MNH GY RA, mt khi nguyn
nhn ca n khng phi do s thiu st tr tu, m do s thiu st tnh cng quyt v
lng can m, dm t mnh dng tr tu phc v cho mnh m khng cn n s ch
o ca ngi khc. Hy c can m t s dng tr tu CA CHNH MNH!
l cu phng chm ca Khai Sng (Trch: Khai sng l g, I.Kant)
11

HNG DN V HNH THC CA TIU LUN C NHN

Tiu lun c trnh by trn trang giy A4, l tri 3cm, l phi 2,5cm, l trn
2,5cm v l di 2,5cm.
Phn Header : H v tn sinh vin, lp (font Times News Roman, size 13, in
nghing). V d:
Nguyn Vn A, lp 101_T8
Phn ni dung trnh by tip nh sau:
TIU LUN MN KINH T V M
(font Times News Roman, size 15, ch hoa, in nghing, cn gia)
CC BIN PHP GIP LM TNG
NGHO I TI VIT NAM
(Tiu ca tiu lun font Times News Roman, size 17, ch hoa, cn gia)
Phn ni dung dng font Times News Roman, size 13, in ng. Phn Paragraph
chn: Alignment (Jusitfy), Spacing (Before, After: 6pt), Special (First line, 1.27cm),
Line Spacing (At least).
Cc bn ch l nu trch dn nguyn vn t ti liu khc th phi cu trch
dn trong ngoc kp v ngun. V d: n tht heo tai xanh khng c hi (Trn
Vn B, Bo Ting vang, s 13, ngy 13/1/2009). Nu ch trch th cn ngun
trch.
di tiu lun: ti thiu 8 trang v ti a 12 trang (khng k Mc lc v Ti
liu tham kho). Khng cn ng ba, ch bm gc. In 1 mt giy v 2 mt giy u
c.
Phn ni dung c th trnh by thnh cc mc nh sau:
1. M u
Gii thiu v thc trng ca vn nghin cu.
2. Nguyn nhn
a ra cc nguyn nhn theo cc bn dn ti tnh trng trn
3. Kin ngh v gii php
Nu cn thit, cc bn hy a ra mt s kin ngh v gii php khc phc
nhng thiu st, bt cp nu trong phn 2.
12

TI LIU THAM KHO
Lit k mt s ti liu tham kho (sch, bi bo, link t internet). bit
cch ghi ti liu tham kho theo chun mc quc t, cc bn nn tham kho cc ti
liu di y:
Vo Google g: ti liu hng dn trnh by tiu lun, Fulbright.
Vo Google g: hng dn chung v cch tham kho v trch dn (s tm ra
file: Tap_chi_Cach_viet_Tai_lieu_tham_khao.doc)
Mt s tiu ch chm im tiu lun:
- Hm lng thng tin (chng t tc gi c chu kh tham kho t nhiu ti
liu). L thuyt lm t thi (nu c ch ti a 2 trang). Gii php cng ngn
gn (ti a 2 trang).
- Cu trc r rng, logic (chng t tc gi hiu r vn ang vit v c t
duy khoa hc).
- Bin c t liu tham kho thnh ging vn ca mnh
- Tham kho c t ti liu ting Anh
- Lm ti kh, c tng ring, c o s c im tt hn
- Nh nh s trang. Thi gian nghin cu ch nn hn nh trong khong ti
a 5 nm v s trang tiu lun c hn, vit v mt khong thi gian qu di
th mi th ch c 1 t.
Sinh vin cn lu nu c thc mc v hng ti c ph hp vi ni dung
mn hc hay khng phi hi ging vin c hng dn thm.
thc hin tt mt tiu lun c nhn, tiu lun nhm ni ring v mt ti
nghin cu khoa hc ni chung, cc bn nn tham kho cc sch bo v Phng php
nghin cu khoa hc (mua nh sch hoc c trong th vin) hoc c th dng cc
ti liu min ph sau:
Bi ging mn phng php nghin cu khoa hc (Vo google g: phng
php nghin cu khoa hc "nguyn thanh phng)
Phng php Nghin cu khoa hc (g: phng php nghin cu khoa hc
nguyn bo v)
Lm th no vit tt mt lun vn khoa hc (g: Lm th no vit tt
mt lun vn khoa hc hong vn chu)
Nguyn Vn A, lp DH23NH23

TIU LUN MN KINH T VI M
CUNG V CU THNT HEO TAI XANH VIT NAM

1. M u

2. Nguyn nhn

3. Kin ngh v gii php

TI LIU THAM KHO

13

HNG DN V HNH THC TH HIN TIU LUN NHM

Trang ba (C mu di)
T trang 2 gm c:
1. M U (vit hoa, in m)
Gii thiu ngn gn v l do v mc ch ca tiu lun
2. NI DUNG (tn ca mc ny do cc bn t t nhng n l phn ni
dung chnh ca tiu lun)
2.1 (ch thng, in m)
2.2
.
Khng dng ch La M: I, II C th dng ti tiu mc cp 3: 2.1.1;
2.1.2 Tiu mc cp 3 vit bng ch thng, in nghing. Nu cn na th dng:
a, b, c (ch thng)
3. KT LUN V GII PHP
Nu cc bn thy cn c gii php th xut ngn gn, khng cn th thi.
TI LIU THAM KHO (Trang cui)
Cch ghi ti liu tham kho sao cho chun tng i phc tp. Do y ch l
tiu lun ngn, t tham kho t sch nn ti cng khng yu cu cao lm. Bn no c
kh nng c th tham kho phn ghi ti liu tham kho ca cc sch nc ngoi hoc
cc ti liu hng dn trn hc tp. Cc ti liu tham kho t Internet nn a
thm link.
Lu : Trong bi tiu lun ch dng 1 font ch Time News Roman. Khng k
border cho trang. Khng cn dng header hay footer. Ch nh s trang.
Phn ni dung cng nh Tiu lun c nhn, dng font Times News Roman, size
13, in ng. Phn Paragraph chn: Alignment (Jusitfy), Spacing (Before, After: 6pt),
Special (First line, 1.27cm), Line Spacing (At least).
- Tiu lun nhm di t nht 12 trang, nhiu nht 20 trang (khng k Mc lc
v Ti liu tham kho). Cng nh tiu lun c nhn, ch a t l thuyt v
gii php vo (mi phn ti a 2 trang).
- Nn chn thm bng biu v hnh v minh ha.
- Khuyn khch tham tho t ti liu sch, bo ting nc ngoi.
- Tiu ch nh gi tiu lun nhm cng gn tng t vi tiu lun c nhn
nhng mc cao hn (v nhiu ngi lm)
- Tiu lun nhm phi ng ba (giy hay nha cng c)
14

TRNG I HC NGN HNG TP. H CH MINH
LP .
(font Time News Roman, size 14, vit hoa, ch m, cn gia)

TIU LUN MN KINH T V M
(font Time News Roman, size 15, vit hoa, ch thng, in nghing, cn gia)
TN TIU LUN
(font Time News Roman, size 18, vit hoa, ch m, cn gia)

NHM:
(tn xp theo th t a, b, c)
Nguyn Vn A
Trn Vn B
.
GVHD:

TP.H Ch Minh, /2011

(Lu : Trang ba trnh by n gin, khng chn thm hnh)
15

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

BANKING PANICS AND THE ORIGIN OF CENTRAL BANKING

Gary Gorton
Lixin Huang

Working Paper 9137
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9137

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts
AvenueCambridge, MA 02138September 2002
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National
Bureau of Economic Research.
2002 by Gary Gorton and Lixin Huang. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed
two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including
notice, is given to the source.
1
CHNG 1
MI NGUYN L CA KINH T HC &
CCH T DUY NH MT NH KINH T
KINH T HC
Kinh t hc l mn hc nghin cu loi
ngi trong cuc sng thng nht ca
h. (Alfred Marshall) Vi du\gia hng ha cao.mht Vi du\B mt ng tri.mht Vi
du\Nghch l pht trin.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 2
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 3
Nn kinh t . . .
. . . Thut ng kinh t (economy) bt ngun t
ting Hy lp c ngha l: ngi qun l mt h
gia nh. Vi du\Kinh t hc Wikipedia.mht
Mt h gia nh v mt nn kinh t phi i mt
vi nhiu quyt nh:
Ai s lm vic?
Loi hng ha no s c sn xut v sn
xut bao nhiu?
Loi ti nguyn no nn c s dng trong
sn xut?
Nn bn hng ha vi gi no?
2
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 4
MI NGUYN L CA
KINH T HC
X hi v ngun lc khan him:
Khan him (Scarcity). . . c ngha l x hi ch
c mt ngun lc c gii hn v do khng
th sn xut mi loi hng ha v dch v m
mi ngi mong mun.
Vic qun l ngun lc ca mt x hi rt
quan trng bi v ngun lc lun khan him.
Kinh t hc (Economics) l mt ngnh hc
nghin cu cch thc x hi c th qun l
cc ngun lc khan him ca n.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 5
MI NGUYN L CA KINH T HC
Con ngi ra quyt nh nh th no?
1. Con ngi phi i mt vi s nh i
2. Chi ph ca mt th l ci m bn phi t b c c n
3. Con ngi duy l suy ngh ti im cn bin
4. Con ngi phn ng vi cc kch thch
Con ngi tng tc vi nhau th no?
5. Thng mi lm mi ngi u c li
6. Th trng lun l phng thc tt t chc hot ng kinh t
7. i khi chnh ph c th ci thin c kt cc th trng
Nn kinh t nh mt tng th vn hnh nh th no?
8. Mc sng ca 1 quc gia ph thuc vo nng lc sn xut hng ha
v dch v ca nc
9. Gi c tng khi chnh ph in qu nhiu tin
10. Chnh ph phi i mt vi s nh i trong ngn hn gia lm
pht v tht nghip
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 6
NGUYN L 1: CON NGI I MT VI
S NH I
Ngn ng Phng Ty: Khng c ba n
tra min ph! (There is no such thing as a
free lunch!) hoc Ci g cng c gi ca n!.
Vi du\B xt-V nguyn Gip.mht Vi du\L Quang Bnh.mht
3
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 7
a ra quyt nh i hi nh i
mt mc tiu ly mt mc tiu khc
NGUYN L 1:
CON NGI I MT VI S NH I
c mt th g , chng ta thng phi hi
sinh mt th khc:
Sng nh i b Vi du\Bac trieu tien doi.mht Vi du\Bac trieu tien 2.mht Vi du\My-Sung
va bo.mht
An ton nh i li nhun
Thi gian th gin nh i lm vic
Hiu qu nh i cng bng
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 8
NGUYN L 1: CON NGI I MT VI
S NH I
Hiu qu hay cng bng
Hiu qu (Efficiency) c ngha rng x hi c c
nhiu nht c th t ngun lc c hn ca n;
Cng bng (Equity) c ngha rng li ch ca nhng
ngun lc trn c phn phi hp l (fairly) gia
cc thnh vin ca x hi.
Khi chnh ph thc hin cc chnh sch ti phn
phi gip cng bng hn th cng thng lm hi
ti hiu qu ca nn kinh t hay ni cch khc, khi
c ct ming bnh ra cc phn u nhau hn, chnh
ph lm chic bnh nh li Vi du\Cuba lng co bng.mht Vi du\Cuba sp ht
giy v sinh.mht Vi du\nguoi giau duoc loi.mht Vi du\kinh te nong thon.mht Vi du\cau chuyen Z30.mht Vi du\Tranh ci quyt lit
v thu.mht Vi du\H mc chu thu.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 9
NGUYN L 2: CHI PH CA MT TH L
CI M BN PHI T B C C N
V con ngi lun phi i mt vi s nh i nn
qu trnh ra quyt nh i hi phi so snh chi ph
(cost) v li ch (benefit) ca cc ng li hnh
ng khc nhau:
Liu nn i hc hay i lm?
Liu nn n lp hay nh ng?
Song trong nhiu trng hp, chi ph ca mt s
hnh ng khng phi lc no cng r rng nh biu
hin ban u ca chng.
Chi ph c hi ca mt th l nhng ci m bn phi
t b c c n.
4
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 10
NGUYN L 3: NGI DUY L SUY NGH TI
IM CN BIN
Cc thay i bin thng nh, c iu
chnh tng ln dn theo hnh ng ang din
ra. Con ngi thng phi la chn mc
bin hn l la chn tng th.
Con ngi duy l (rational) ra quyt nh bng
cch so snh li ch cn bin v chi ph cn
bin. Ngi duy l ch hnh ng khi li ch
cn bin vt chi ph cn bin. Vi du\m tin c li cho sc khe.mht
Vi du\B quyt giu nhanh.mht Vi du\Hnh phc qui ra tin.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 11
NGUYN L 4: CON NGI P NG LI
CC KHUYN KHCH
V mi ngi ra quyt nh da trn s so
snh chi ph v li ch nn hnh vi ca h c
th thay i khi ch li hoc chi ph thay i,
tc l mi ngi phn ng vi cc kch thch.
Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch cng cng
khng bao gi c qun cc kch thch, v
nhiu chnh sch lm thay i li ch hoc chi
ph m mi ngi phi i mt v bi vy
lm thay i hnh vi ca h. Vi du\130 kin ngh cho gio dc.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 12
NGUYN L 5: THNG MI LM CHO
MI NGI U C LI
Mi ngi c th thu c li ch t vic
trao i thng mi vi nhng ngi khc
Cnh tranh mang li li ch trong thng
mi
Thng mi cho php mi ngi chuyn
mn ha trong nhng cng vic m h
thnh tho nht Vi du\malaysia.mht Vi du\iu khon Mua hng M.mht Vi du\Obama-v
xe.mht
5
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 13
NGUYN L 6: TH TRNG LUN L PHNG
CCH TT T CHC CC HOT NG KINH T
Mt nn kinh t th trng l nn kinh t
m cc ngun lc c phn phi thng
qua cc quyt nh phi tp trung ca nhiu
doanh nghip v h gia nh khi h tng
tc trn th trng hng ha v dch v Vi
du\Vong kim co.mht Vi du\Anh bao cap.doc Vi du\T Duy Kinh T Vit Nam.mht
Cc h gia nh quyt nh h nn mua v
nn lm ci g.
Cc doanh nghip quyt nh h nn thu ai
v nn sn xut ci g.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 14
Adam Smith quan st thy rng cc h gia nh
v doanh nghip tng tc trn th trng hnh ng
nh th h c hng dn bi mt bn tay v hnh
(invisible hand).
Do gi c hng dn nn cc tc nhn trong nn kinh
t s lm iu tt nht cho mnh v qua mang li li
ch ti a cho x hi. ng c v cho nguyn tc t do
kinh doanh, nh nc khng can thip vo th trng
(laissez faire).
Nhng do cc h gia nh v doanh nghip ch xem
xt gi c khi quyt nh mua hoc bn nn h s
khng tnh n cc chi ph x hi ca cc hnh ng
ca h.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 15
Khng phi nh lng nhn t ca nhng ngi bn tht,
ch ca hng ru hay ngi bn bnh m m chng ta
c c ba ti m chnh l nh li ch ring ca h...
Mi c nhn thng khng c chm lo cho li ch cng
ng, cng nh khng bit rng iu mnh lm s em li
ch li cho cng ng. Anh ta ch nhm ti li ch ring
ca mnh v trong trng hp ny, cng ging nh nhiu
trng hp khc, anh ta c dn dt bi mt bn tay v
hnh thc hin mt s mnh m anh ta khng h c
d nh thc hin. Song khng phi lc no cng l ti t
vi x hi nu iu nm ngoi d nh ca anh ta.
Bng cch theo ui li ch ring ca mnh, anh ta
thng xuyn thc y li ch cng ng mt cch
hiu qu hn c khi anh ta thc s c nh lm nh
vy. Adam Smith (1723-1790) Vi du\hoa thuc liet truyen.doc Vi du\ma h xanh.mht Vi
du\hon nhan han quoc.mht Vi du\Lc in v.mht Vi du\cam van gai lang.mht
6
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 16
NGUYN L 7: CHNH PH I KHI C
TH CI THIN KT QU TH TRNG
Tht bi th trng (Market failure) xy ra
khi th trng tht bi trong vic phn b
ngun lc mt cch c hiu qu
Khi th trng tht bi chnh ph c th
can thip kch thch hiu qu v cng
bng
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 17
NGUYN L 7: CHNH PH I KHI C
TH CI THIN KT QU TH TRNG
Tht bi th trng c xy ra do:
Mt ngoi ng (externality), l nh hng
t hnh ng ca mt ngi hoc mt
doanh nghip ti nhng ngi bn ngoi Vi
du\Khac tinh cua dinh tac.mht Vi du\b gi v inh tc.mht
Sc mnh th trng (market power), y
l kh nng ca mt ngi hay mt doanh
nghip n l gy nh hng mt cch
qu mc, khng chnh ng ti gi c th
trng
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 18
NGUYN L 8: MC SNG CA MT QUC GIA PH
THUC VO NNG LC SN XUT CA N
Hu ht nhng s khc nhau trong mc
sng gia cc quc gia c gii thch bi
nng sut ca chng. Cc cch gii thch
khc ch ng vai tr th yu. Vi du\Daron Acemoglu.mht
Nng sut (Productivity) l s lng sn
phm hng ha v dch v c sn xut
trong mi gi ca ngi lao ng. Vi du\Big Mac.mht
Nguyn l 70/x
7
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 19
NGUYN L 9: GI C S TNG LN KHI
CHNH PH IN QU NHIU TIN
Lm pht (Inflation) l s tng ln trong
mc gi chung ca nn kinh t
Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn ca lm
pht l s tng ln ca khi lng tin t
Khi chnh ph in ra mt s lng ln tin
t, gi tr ca chng gim xung
Thng 1/1921, gi 1 t bo c l 0,3
mark. 11/1922 n c gi: 70.000.000
mark!!! Vi du\Zimbabwe b 12 ch s.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 20
NGUYN L 10: X HI PHI NH I TRONG
NGN HN GIA LM PHT V THT NGHIP
ng cong Philips
minh ha s nh
i gia lm pht v
tht nghip:
Lm pht
Tht nghip
y l s nh i
ngn hn! Vi du\Chu u lm pht h
nhit, tht nghip tng.mht
Tht nghip
2 4 6 8
2
4
6
8
1
7
3
5
5
1 3 7
ng cong Phillips
Lm pht
Principles of Macroeconomics Ch. 21 Second Canadian Edition
ng Phillips M giai on
1950 v 1960
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 2 4 6 8
Unemployment Rate
R
a
t
e

o
f

I
n
f
l
a
t
i
o
n
1968
1967
1966
1956
1957
1962
1961
1960
1958
1959
1963
1964
1965
8
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 22
TM TT
Khi cc c nhn ra quyt nh, h phi i mt vi s nh i
gia cc mc tiu khc nhau
Chi ph ca bt k hnh ng no c o lng bng cc c
hi mt i
Con ngi duy l a ra cc quyt nh bng vic so snh gia
li ch v chi ph cn bin
Con ngi thay i hnh vi p ng li cc kch thch
Thng mi c th ng thi lm li cho cc bn tham gia
Th trng lun l phng cch tt phi hp s trao i gia
con ngi
Chnh ph c kh nng ci thin kt qu th trng nu c mt
s tht bi th trng hoc nu th trng gy ra s bt bnh
ng
Nng sut l ngun gc nn tng ca mc sng
Tng trng tin t l ngun gc cn bn ca lm pht
X hi phi i mt vi s nh i gia lm pht v tht
nghip
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 23
2
T DUY NH MT NH KINH T
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 24
Mi ngnh khoa hc u c cc thut ng ca
chng:
Ton hc
Tch phn Tin Khng gian vc t
Tm l hc
Ci ng Ci ti Nhn thc
Trit hc
Bin chng T bin Siu hnh
Kinh t hc
Cung Chi ph c hi co gin Thng d
ngi tiu dng
9
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 25
Kinh t hc dy bn cch...:
Suy ngh v s chn la
Lng gi chi ph c nhn v chn
la x hi
Xem xt v tm hiu cch thc cc s
vic v ch lin quan ti nhau
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 26
NH KINH T NH MT
NH KHOA HC
Cch t duy ca khoa hc kinh t . . .
Suy ngh theo hng phn tch v
khch quan
S dng cc phng php khoa hc
S dng cc m hnh rt gn gii thch
cch thc mt th gii thc, phc tp vn
hnh
Pht trin cc l thuyt, thu thp v phn
tch d liu nh gi l thuyt Vi du\n nhanh pht trin
kinh t.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 27
VAI TR CA CC GI NH
Cc nh kinh t a ra cc gi nh
gip th gii thc tr nn d hiu hn
Ngh thut trong t duy khoa hc l
quyt nh xem nn s dng gi nh
no
Cc nh kinh t s dng cc gi nh
khc nhau tr li cc cu hi khc
nhau
10
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 28
M HNH KINH T
Cc nh kinh t s dng cc m hnh
n gin ha gip chng ta hiu th
gii d dng hn
2 m hnh c s dng nhiu nht l
Biu dng chu chuyn (The Circular
Flow Diagram) v ng gii hn kh
nng sn xut (The Production
Possibilities Frontier).
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 29
Hnh 1: Biu dng chu chuyn
Chi tiu
Hng ha
v dch v
c mua
Thu nhp
Hng ha
v dch v
c bn
Lao ng, t,
v vn
Thu nhp
= Lung u vo
v u ra
= Lung tin
Cc yu t
sn xut
Lng, tin thu,
v li nhun
DOANH NGHIP
Sn xut v bn
hng ha v dch v
Thu v s dng
cc yu t sn xut
Mua v tiu dng
hng ha v dch v
S hu v bn
cc yu t sn xut
H GIA NH
H gia nh bn
Doanh nghip mua
TH TRNG
CHO
CC YU T SN XUT
Doanh nghip bn
H gia nh mua
TH TRNG
CHO
HNG HA V DCH V
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 30
BIU DNG CHU CHUYN
Cc doanh nghip
Sn xut v bn cc hng ha, dch
v
Thu v s dng cc yu t sn xut
Cc h gia nh
Mua v tiu th hng ha v dch v
S hu v bn cc yu t sn xut
11
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 31
BIU DNG CHU CHUYN
Th trng hng ha v dch v
Cc doanh nghip bn
Cc h gia nh mua
Th trng cho cc yu t sn xut
Cc h gia nh bn
Cc doanh nghip mua
Cc yu t sn xut (Factors of Production)
Cc u vo sn xut hng ha v dch v
t ai, lao ng v t bn
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 32
NG GII HN KH NNG SN XUT
ng Gii hn kh nng sn xut
(production possibilities frontier) l
mt biu cho thy cc s kt
hp gia cc mc sn lng m
nn kinh t c th sn xut vi cc
nhn t sn xut v cng ngh hin
c
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 33
Hnh 2: ng gii hn kh nng sn xut
Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
ng gii hn
kh nng sn xut
A
B
C
S lng
t c sn xut
2,200
600
1,000
300 0 700
2,000
3,000
1,000
S lng
my tnh
c sn xut
D
12
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 34
NG GII HN KH NNG SN XUT
Cc khi nim c minh ha bi
ng gii hn kh nng sn xut
Hiu qu (Efficiency)
S nh i (Tradeoffs)
Chi ph c hi (Opportunity Cost)
Tng trng kinh t (Economic
Growth)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 35
Hnh 3 S dch chuyn ca ng gii hn kh nng sn xut
Copyright 2004 South-Western
E
S lng
t c sn xut
2,000
700
2,100
750 0
4,000
3,000
1,000
S lng
my tnh
c sn xut
A
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 36
KINH T V M V KINH T VI M
Kinh t vi m (Microeconomics) nhn mnh
vo tng thnh phn tch bit trong nn kinh
t
Cch thc m cc h gia nh v doanh
nghip a ra cc quyt nh v h tng
tc trn cc th trng c th nh th no
Kinh t v m (Macroeconomics) nhn nn
kinh t nh mt tng th
Cc s kin kinh t ln nh lm pht, tht
nghip v tng trng kinh t
13
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 37
NH KINH T NH NGI T VN
CHNH SCH
Khi cc nh kinh t ang c gng gii
thch th gii, h l nh khoa hc
Khi cc nh kinh t c gng thay i th
gii, h l nh t vn chnh sch
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 38
PHN TCH THC CHNG V PHN
TCH CHUN TC
Cc nhn nh thc chng (Positive
statements) l cc nhn nh m t th
gii nh n c
c gi l cc phn tch m t
Cc nhn nh chun tc (Normative
statements) l cc nhn nh cho rng th
gii nn nh th no
c gi l cc phn tch nhn nh
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 39
Nhn nh thc chng hay chun tc?
Mt s tng ln trong tin lng ti thiu
s lm tng tht nghip nhng ngi c
k nng km
Thc chng
Mc thm ht ngn sch cao s y li
sut tng ln
Thc chng
?
?
PHN TCH THC CHNG V
PHN TCH CHUN TC
?
14
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 40
Nhn nh thc chng hay chun tc?
Li ch thu c t tin lng ti thiu cao
hn s ng gi hn thit hi do mc tng
nh trong tht nghip
Chun tc
- Chnh ph nn cho php nh thu t cc
cng ty thuc l b p chi ph cha cc
bnh lin quan n thuc l ca ngi ngho
Chun tc
?
?
PHN TCH THC CHNG V
PHN TCH CHUN TC
?
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 41
TI SAO CC NH KINH T BT
NG VI NHAU
H c th khng ng vi nhau v
mc ng n ca cc l thuyt thc
chng m t s vn hnh ca th gii.
H cng c th c cc h gi tr khc
nhau v do c cch nhn chun tc
khc nhau v loi chnh sch no nn
c thc hin.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 42
CC NH KINH T KHNG PHI LC
NO CNG BT NG VI NHAU!
Vic nh ra gi trn thu nh lm gim s lng v
cht lng nh hin c (93%)
Thu quan v hn ngch thng lm gim phc li
kinh t ni chung (93%)
T gi hi oi linh hot v th ni to ra c ch tin
t quc t c hiu qu (90%)
Mc thm ht ngn sch lin bang ln c tc ng
tiu cc ti nn kinh t
Lut v tin lng ti thiu lm tng t l tht nghip
ca thanh nin v cng nhn khng lnh ngh (79%)
Vi du\C nn tin chuyn gia.mht
15
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 43
TM TT
Cc nh kinh t c gng gii quyt cc mi
quan tm ca h bng s khch quan ca
khoa hc:
H a ra cc gi nh ph hp v xy
dng cc m hnh c n gin ha
hiu tt v th gii quanh h
2 m hnh kinh t n gin nht l Biu
dng chu chuyn v ng gii hn kh
nng sn xut
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 44
TM TT
Kinh t hc c phn ra 2 chuyn ngnh
ph:
Cc nh Kinh t vi m nghin cu vic ra
quyt nh ca cc h gia nh v doanh
nghip trong th trng.
Cc nh Kinh t v m nghin cu cc lc
v khuynh hng tc ng n tng th
nn kinh t.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 45
TM TT
Mt nhn nh thc chng l mt nh
gi v th gii hin hoc s nh th
no
Mt nhn nh chun tc l mt nhn
nh v th gii nn nh th no
Khi cc nh kinh t a ra mt nhn
nh chun tc, h hnh ng nh nh
t vn chnh sch hn l mt nh khoa
hc
16
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 46
TM TT
Cc nh kinh t a ra cc li khuyn
tri ngc nhau cho cc nh lm chnh
sch bi v h c cc nhn nh khoa
hc khc nhau v bi v h c cc h
gi tr khc nhau
mt thi im khc, cc nh kinh t
c th thng nht v li khuyn nhng
cc nh lm chnh sch li la chn
vic khng n chng
2/14/2011
1
CHNG 2
S LIU KINH T V M
2/14/2011
1 Trn Mnh Kin
O LNG THU NHP QUC GIA
2/14/2011
2
Kinh t vi m (Microeconomics): nghin cu
cch thc cc h gia nh v doanh nghip ra
quyt nh v tng tc trn th trng nh
th no
Kinh t v m (Macroeconomics): nghin cu
nn kinh t nh mt tng th
Mc tiu ca n l l gii nhng bin ng kinh t tc
ng ti nhiu h gia nh, doanh nghip v th
trng cng mt lc. vi du\d bo kinh t vit nam2009.mht vi du\thong tin macro.mht vi du\BIDV
d bo kinh t v m.mht
Trn Mnh Kin
O LNG THU NHP QUC GIA
2/14/2011
3
Kinh t v m tr li cc cu hi nh:
Ti sao thu nhp trung bnh ca mt s quc gia
li cao v mt s quc gia li thp?
Ti sao gi c tng nhanh trong mt s thi im
v li n nh trong mt s thi im khc?
Ti sao sn xut v nhn dng li tng trong mt
s nm v thu hp vo nhng nm khc?
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
2
MT S CH CHNH TRONG
KINH T V M
2/14/2011
4
Lm pht (Inflation)
Phn trm thay i trong mc gi c ni chung
Tht nghip (Unemployment)
o lng s lng nhng ngi mun c vic lm
nhng khng c vic
Tng sn lng (Output)
Sn lng quc gia thc (real gross national product
- GNP) o lng tng thu nhp ca mt nn kinh t
Trn Mnh Kin
MT S CH CHNH KHC
2/14/2011
5
Tng trng kinh t (Economic growth)
S tng ln trong GNP thc, mt ch du biu th
s tng trng tng sn phm trong nn kinh t.
Cc chnh sch kinh t v m (Macroeconomic
policy)
Mt tp hp cc bin php chnh sch c s
dng bi chnh ph tc ng ti tng th nn
kinh t ni chung
Trn Mnh Kin
Lm pht Vit Nam, 1995-2010 (%)
2/14/2011
6
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
Trn Mnh Kin
12.7
4.5
3.6
9.2
0.1
-0.6
0.8
4
3
9.5
8.4
6.6
12.63
19.9
6.88
11.75
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2/14/2011
3
Tht nghip thnh th Vit Nam, 1996-2010 (%)
2/14/2011
7
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
Trn Mnh Kin
5.88
6.01
6.85 6.74
6.42
6.28
6.01
5.78
5.6
5.31
4.82
4.64 4.65 4.64
4.43
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tng trng GDP Vit Nam, 1995-2010 (%) vi du\GDP dau nguoi-thuc
te.xls vi du\Tc tng GDP.xls vi du\Vit Nam tt hu.mht vi du\so snh GDP.pdf vi du\Tin ln hay dng li.mht vi du\By.pdf vi du\Hng-SCT.mht vi du\Tun-
SCT.mht vi du\rng Komodo.mht
2/14/2011
8
Trn Mnh Kin
9.54
9.34
8.15
5.76
4.77
6.79 6.89
7.08
7.34
7.79
8.44
8.17
8.5
6.23
5.32
6.78
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
THU NHP V CHI TIU CA NN KINH T
2/14/2011
9
Khi nh gi xem mt nn kinh t no c hot ng
tt khng, d nhin ngi ta s nhn vo tng thu nhp
m nhng ngi trong nn kinh t kim c
Vi tng th mt nn kinh t thu nhp phi bng chi
tiu bi v:
Mi giao dch phi c ngi mua v ngi bn.
Mi ng chi tiu ca ngi mt s ngi mua cng s l thu
nhp ca mt s ngi bn.
S bng nhau ca thu nhp v chi tiu c th c minh ha
bng Biu dng chu chuyn (Circular-flow Diagram).
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
4
BIU DNG CHU CHUYN
2/14/2011
10
H gia nh Doanh nghip
Hng ha
Lao ng
Chi tiu ($)
Thu nhp ($)
Trn Mnh Kin
TNG SN PHM NI A
Tng sn phm ni a (Gross domestic
product - GDP) o lng thu nhp v chi tiu
ca mt nn kinh t
GDP l gi tr th trng ca ton b hng ha
v dch v cui cng c sn xut bn trong
mt quc gia trong mt khong thi gian
nht nh
2/14/2011
11
Trn Mnh Kin
O LNG TNG SN PHM NI A
2/14/2011
12
GDP l gi tr th trng . . .
Sn lng tnh bng gi th trng.
. . . ca tt c sn phm cui cng . . .
Ch ghi nhn gi tr ca hng ha cui cng,
khng tnh hng ha trung gian (gi tr ch
c tnh 1 ln).
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
5
2/14/2011
13
. . . Hng ha v Dch v . . .
Bao gm c nhng hng ha hu hnh (qun
o, thc phm, t) v dch v v hnh (ct
tc, dn nh, khm bnh).
. . . c sn xut ra . . .
N bao gm mi hng ha v dch v ang
c sn xut ra, khng bao gm nhng hng
ha c sn xut trong qu kh.
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
14
. . . Trong phm vi mt quc gia . . .
o lng gi tr sn xut trong phm vi 1 quc
gia.
. . . Trong mt thi k nht nh.
GDP o lng gi tr sn xut thc hin trong
mt thi gian c th, thng l 1 nm hay 1
qu.
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
15
GDP bao gm mi vt phm c sn xut trong
nn kinh t v bn mt cch hp php trn th
trng.
Ci g khng c tnh trong GDP?
GDP loi b hu ht cc vt phm c sn xut v
tiu th ti gia nh m khng c a vo lu
thng trn th trng. vi du\Kinh t ngm.mht
N cng b qua nhng vt phm c sn xut v bn
tri php, nh ma ty. vi du\Chng mi dm.mht vi du\mi dm -n .mht vi du\Mi dm 1.mht
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
6
CC PHNG PHP TNH GDP
2/14/2011
16
C 3 phng php tnh GDP:
- Phng php chi tiu: tnh bng cc khon chi
tiu
- Phng php thu nhp: tnh bng cc khon thu
nhp
- Phng php sn xut: tnh bng cc khon gi
tr gia tng
Trn Mnh Kin
CC THNH PHN CA GDP
2/14/2011
17
GDP (Y) l tng ca cc thnh t sau:
Tiu dng (Consumption - C)
u t (Investment - I)
Chi tiu ca chnh ph (Government
Purchases - G)
Xut khu rng (Net Exports - NX)
Y = C + I + G + NX
Trn Mnh Kin
TIU DNG (C)
2/14/2011
18
Hng ha lu bn
(Durable Goods)
VD: t, TV
Hng khng lu
bn (Nondurable
Goods)
VD: thc n, qun o
Dch v (Services)
VD: git i , du
lch.
Phn chi tiu ca cc h gia
nh cho hng ha v dch
v, tr i phn mua nh
mi:
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
7
Tiu dng M, 2005 vi du\Lut s M.mht
41,3
20,5
8,2
70,0%
5.154,9
2.564,4
1.026,5
$8.745,7
Dch v
Hng khng lu bn
Hng lu bn
Tiu dng
% of GDP $ t
Trn Mnh Kin
U T
2/14/2011
20
u t (I): u t l cc khon chi tiu mua my
mc, thit b t bn, hng tn kho, xy dng nh
xng, bao gmc nh mi.
u t bao gm:
u t c nh vo kinh doanh (Business fixed
investment): Chi tiu vo nh xng v my mc ca
khu vc doanh nghip.
u t c nh vo nh (Residential fixed
investment): Chi tiu vo mua nh mi ca khu vc h
gia nh v nhng ngi cho thu nh.
u t vo hng tn kho (inventory investment):
Thay i trong gi tr hng tn kho ca doanh nghip.
Trn Mnh Kin
u t M, 2005
0,2
6,1
10,6
16,9%
18,9
756,3
1.329,8
$2.105,0
Tn kho
u t nh
u t c nh
u t
% of GDP $ t
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
8
CC THNH PHN CA GDP
2/14/2011
22
Chi tiu ca chnh ph (G):
Phn chi tiu vo hng ha v dch v ca cc
cp chnh quyn.
Khng bao gm cc khon thanh ton chuyn
nhng (transfer payments) bi v n khng
mang li hng ha v dch v.
Trn Mnh Kin
Chi tiu chnh ph M, 2005
Lin bang
18.9% $2,362.9 Chi tiu chnh ph
Bang v a phng
Quc phng
7.0
11.9
4.7
2.3
877.7
1,485.2
587.1
290.6 Phi quc phng
% of GDP $ billions
Trn Mnh Kin
XUT KHU RNG vi du\nhap sieu 2.mht vi du\gia cng giy.mht vi du\Gio dc-
WTO.mht vi du\Thng mi Vit-Trung.mht vi du\TKV bn than.mht
2/14/2011
24
Xut khu rng (NX):
Xut khu tr i nhp khu (NX = X-M)
Xut, nhp khu ca Vit Nam, 2003-09 (triu USD)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Xut khu 20.149 26.485 32.447 39.826 48.561 62.685 56.600
Nhp khu 25.256 31.969 36.761 44.891 62.765 80.714 68.800
Xut khu
rng
-5.107 -5.484 -4.314 -5.065 -14.203 -18.029 -12.870
% xut khu
rng/GDP
-8,36 -7,55 -4,18 -4,56 -15,85 -16,54 -11,23
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
9
Ti khon quc gia ca Vit Nam,
2002 - 2006 (t ng, gi thc t) vi du\gdp tinh-gdp ca nuoc.doc vi du\GDP a
phng.mht
2002 2003 2004 2005 S b
2006
GDP
535.762 613.443 715.307 839.211 973.790
Tiu dng (C)
348.747 406.451 465.506 533.141 611.206
Chi tiu chnh
ph (G)
33.390 38.770 45.715 51.652 57.334
u t (I)
177.983 217.434 253.686 298.543 347.900
Xut khu rng
(NX)
-27.684 -51.288 -54.000 -35.088 -32.471
Sai s
3.326 2.076 4.400 -9.037 -10.179
2/14/2011
25
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
Trn Mnh Kin
Ti khon quc gia ca Vit Nam, 2002 2006
(% ca GDP)
2002 2003 2004 2005 S b
2006
GDP 100 100 100 100 100
Tiu dng (C) 65,1 66,3 65,1 63,5 62,8
Chi tiu chnh ph
(G)
6.2 6.2 6,4 6,2 5,9
u t (I) 33,2 35,4 35,5 35,6 35,7
Xut khu rng -5,17 -8,36 -7,55 -4,18 -3,34
Sai s 0,6 0,3 0,6 -1,1 -1,0
2/14/2011
26
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
Trn Mnh Kin
GDP THC V GDP DANH NGHA
2/14/2011
27
GDP danh ngha (Nominal GDP) gi tr ca hng
ha v dch v mc gi hin hnh (current
prices).
GDP thc (Real GDP) gi tr ca hng ha v dch
v mc gi c nh (constant prices).
Mt ci nhn chnh xc v nn kinh t i hi phi
iu chnh GDP danh ngha v GDP thc bng
cch s dng ch s iu chnh GDP (GDP
deflator).
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
10
V d tnh GDP danh ngha v GDP thc
2/14/2011
28
Gi
xc xch
Lng
xc xch
Gi
Hambuger
Lng
Hambuger
2001 1 100 2 50
2002 2 150 3 100
2003 3 200 4 150
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
29
GDP danh ngha
2001
$1/chic xc xch 100 +
$2/chic hambuger 50 = $200
2002
2003
$4/chic hambuger 150 = $1.200
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
30
GDP thc
2001
2002
2003
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
11
CH S IU CHNH GDP
2/14/2011
31
Ch s iu chnh GDP (GDP deflator) o lng
mc gi c, c tnh bng cch ly GDP danh
ngha chia cho GDP thc ri nhn vi 100.
N cho chng ta bit phn no ca GDP danh
ngha tng l nh mc gi tng v phn no tng
l do sn lng tng.
Ch s iu chnh GDP =
GDP danh ngha
100
GDP thc
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
32
Ch s iu chnh GDP
2001 ($200/$200) 100 = 100
2002 ($600/$350) 100 = 171
2003 ($1.200/$500) 100 = 240
Trn Mnh Kin
CH S GDP THC C LOI TR LM PHT
2/14/2011
33
GDP danh ngha thay i v 2 l do:
Thay i trong gi c.
Thay i trong sn lng c sn xut.
Thay i trong GDP thc ch do thay i trong
sn lng c sn xut v GDP thc c tnh
bng gi nm gc.
Ch s iu chnh GDP ca Vit Nam (nm gc 1994)
Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP
deflator
161,4 164,5 171,0 182,5 197,4 213,6 229,2
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
12
GNP v GDP
2/14/2011
34
Tng sn phm quc gia (Gross National
Product - GNP): Tng thu nhp do cng dn
mt nc to ra, bt k h sinh sng trong hay
ngoi nc.
Tng sn phm trong nc (Gross Domestic
Product - GDP): Tng thu nhp c to ra bn
trong lnh th ca quc gia, bt k ngi to ra
thu nhp c quc tch g.
(GNP GDP) = (Tin nhn c t nc ngoi)
(Tin tr cho ngi nc ngoi)
Trn Mnh Kin
(GNP GDP)/GDP (%), 2002
2/14/2011
35
U.S.A. 1.0%
Angola -13.6
Brazil -4.0
Canada -1.9
Hong Kong 2.2
Kazakhstan -4.2
Kuwait 9.5
Mexico -1.9
Philippines 6.7
U.K. 1.6

U.S.A. 1.0%
Angola -13.6
Brazil -4.0
Canada -1.9
Hong Kong 2.2
Kazakhstan -4.2
Kuwait 9.5
Mexico -1.9
Philippines 6.7
U.K. 1.6

Trn Mnh Kin
GDP V PHC LI KINH T
2/14/2011
36
GDP l ch s n gin tt nht trong vic o
lng phc li kinh t (economic well-being) ca
mt x hi.
GDP/u ngi ni vi chng ta v thu nhp v
chi tiu trung bnh ca mt ngi trong nn kinh
t.
Mt mc GDP/u ngi cao hn ch ra mc sng
(standard of living) cao hn.
Tuy nhin, GDP khng phi l ch s hon ho
o lng hnh phc hoc cht lng sng.
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
13
GDP V PHC LI KINH T
2/14/2011
37
Mt s yu t ng gp vo phc li nhng
khng c tnh trong GDP. vi du\Tien co mua duoc hanh phuc.mht vi
du\tien-hanh phuc.mht vi du\Th trn hnh phc nht nc Anh.mht vi du\Ngi Vit hanh phc.mht
Gi tr ca s ngh ngi.
Gi tr ca mt mi trng sch.
Gi tr ca tt c cc hot ng khc xy ra bn
ngoi th trng nh thi gian cha m dnh cho
con ci v cc cng vic tnh nguyn
Phn phi thu nhp.
Trn Mnh Kin
Quan h gia GDP v phc li vi du\tinh gdp deflator.doc
2/14/2011
38
Copyright2004 South-Western
Trn Mnh Kin
O LNG MC SNG
2/14/2011
39
Lm pht l thut ng dng ch tnh hung
trong mc gi chung ca nn kinh t tng ln.
T l lm pht l % thay i trong mc gi so vi
thi k trc .
S dng :
Tnh ton s thay i trong chi tiu ca mt h gia nh
in hnh.
Cho php so snh ng tin trong cc khong thi gian
khc nhau.
Vit Nam lm pht c tnh bi Tng cc thng k
(www.gso.gov.vn)
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
14
CH S GI TIU DNG
(Consumer Price Index)
2/14/2011
40
Ch s gi tiu dng (Consumer Price Index -
CPI) l cng c o lng mc gi chung ca hng
ha v dch v c mua bi mt ngi tiu dng
in hnh.
N c s dng o lng s thay i chi ph
cuc sng qua thi gian.
Khi CPI tng, mt gia nh in hnh phi chi tiu
nhiu tin hn gi c mc sng (standard of
living).
Trn Mnh Kin
CC BC TNH CPI
2/14/2011
41
1. Xc nh gi hng (Basket): Xc nh xem
nhng loi hng ha quan trng nht i vi mt
ngi tiu dng in hnh.
C quan thng k xc nh gi hng ha v dch v m mt
ngi tiu dng in hnh s mua.
Sau c quan ny s tin hnh cc cuc iu tra xc nh
quyn s (weights) cho cc mc gi ca hng ha v dch v
.
2. Xc nh gi c: Xc nh mc gi ca mi
hng ha v dch v trong gi hng ti cc thi
im khc nhau
Trn Mnh Kin
CC BC TNH CPI
2/14/2011
42
3. Tnh chi ph ca gi hng: s dng s liu v gi c
v tnh ton chi ph ca gi hng ha v dch v ti cc thi
im khc nhau.
4. Chn nm gc (Base Year) v tnh ch s:
Xc nh mt nm no nh nm gc, c dng lm mc
so snh vi cc nm khc.
Tnh ch s bng cch chia gi c ca gi hng trong mt nm
cho gi c ca gi hng trong nm gc v nhn vi 100.
5. Tnh t l lm pht (inflation rate): T l lm pht
l % thay i ca ch s gi so vi thi k trc .
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
15
CNG THC TNH T L LM PHT
2/14/2011
43
T l lm pht
T l lm pht c tnh theo cng thc sau y:
T l lm
pht nm 2
=
CPI nm2 CPI nm 1
100
CPI nm1
Trn Mnh Kin
V d v tnh ch s lm pht
2/14/2011
44
- Bc 1: iu tra ngi tiu dng xc nh gi
hng ha c nh
4 xc xch, 2 hamburger
- Bc 2: Xc nh gi ca mi hng ha trong mi
nm
Nm Gi xc xch Gi Hamburger
2001 1 2
2002 2 3
2003 3 4
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
45
Bc 3: Tnh chi ph ca gi hng mi nm
Nm Chi ph mi gi hng
2001 ($1/chic xc xch 4 chic) +
($2/chic hamburger 2 chic) = $8
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
16
2/14/2011
46
Bc 4: Chn 1 nm lm gc (2001) v tnh ch s
gi tiu dng cho mi nm
Nm Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)
2001 $8/$8 100 = 100
2002 $14/$8 100 = 175
2003 $20/$8 100 = 250
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
47
Bc 5: S dng ch s gi tiu dng tnh t l lm
pht so vi nm trc
Nm T l lm pht
2002 (175 100)/100 100 = 75%
2003 (250 175)/175 100 = 43%
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
48
Tnh CPI v t l lm pht:
Nm gc l 2002.
Gi hng nm 2002 c gi $1.200.
Cng gi hng nm 2004 c gi $1.236.
CPI = ($1.236/$1.200) 100 = 103.
Gi tng 3% gia nm 2002 v 2004.
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
17
Quyn s trong gi hng ha M
2/14/2011
49
16%
Thc n &
ung
17%
Giao thng
Y t
6%
Gii tr
6%
Qun o
4%
Hng ha &
dch v khc
4%
41%
Nh ca
6%
Gio dc &
lin lc
Copyright2004 South-Western
Trn Mnh Kin
Quyn s tnh CPI Vit Nam
vi du\R hng ha thng 5 TP HCMb 'thng' v gi go.mht vi du\TOC DO TANG GIA.doc vi du\Tinh CPI.doc
2/14/2011
50
Loi hng ha T 1998 T 2000 T 2006
Lng thc, thc phm 60,86 47,9 42,85
ung v thuc l 4,09 4,5 4,56
May mc, giy dp, m nn 6,63 7,63 7,21
Nh v vt liu xy dng 2,9 8,23 9,99
Thit b v dng gia nh 4,6 9,2 8,62
Dc phm , y t 3,53 2,41 5,42
Phng tin i li,bu in 7,23 10,07 9,04
Gio dc 2,5 2,89 5,41
Vn ho, th thao, gii tr 3,79 3,81 3,59
Hng ho v dch v khc 3,86 3,36 3,31
Nm gc 1995 (296 mt hng), 2000 (390 mt hng), 2005 (494 mt hng) vi
du\Phuong phap tinh CPI.mht
Trn Mnh Kin
NH GI CPI
2/14/2011
51
CPI l mt thc o chnh xc cho cc hng ha
c la chn trong mt gi hng ha tiu biu
nhng li khng phi l mt thc o hon ho cho
mc sng.
Do cc l do sau:
lch thay th (Substitution bias)
S xut hin cc hng ha mi (Introduction of new
goods)
S thay i khng lng ha c ca cht lng
(Unmeasured quality changes)
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
18
2/14/2011
52
lch thay th
Gi hng ha khng thay i phn nh s phn
ng ca ngi tiu dng khi gi tng i ca hng
ha thay i.
Ngi tiu dng c khuynh hng thay th chuyn sang
s dng nhng hng ha tr nn r mt cch tng i.
Ch s gi tiu dng phn nh s gia tng ca gi sinh
hot cao hn rt nhiu so vi mc m ngi tiu dng
thc t gnh chu.
NH GI CPI
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
53
S xut hin cc hng ha mi
Gi hng ha khng phn nh s thay i ca sc
mua (purchasing power) do vic xut hin cc sn
phm mi.
Cc sn phm mi lm ngi tiu dng c nhiu la
chn hn v iu ny lm cho mi ng tin tr nn c
gi tr hn.
Ngi tiu dng cn t tin hn duy tr mc sng nh
c.
NH GI CPI
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
54
Nhng s thay i cht lng khng lng ha c
Nu cht lng hng ha tng t nm ny sang nm khc,
gi tr ca mi ng tin tng ln d gi c vn nh c v
ngc li.
C quan thng k c gng iu chnh gi c c c
cht lng khng i nhng s khc bit nh vy rt kh
o lng.
NH GI CPI
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
19
2/14/2011
55
lch thay th, s xut hin cc hng ha mi
v s thay i cht lng khng lng ha c
lm CPI nh gi qu cao chi ph thc ca vic
duy tr tiu chun sng.
Ch ny l quan trng bi v nhiu chng trnh ca
chnh ph s dng CPI iu chnh cho ph hp vi
mc gi chung.
M, CPI nh gi cao lm pht khong 1% mi nm.
NH GI CPI
Trn Mnh Kin
SO SNH CPI & CH S IU CHNH GDP
2/14/2011
56
Cc nh kinh t v cc nh lm chnh sch s dng
c ch s iu chnh GDP v CPI xem xt gi c
tng nhanh ti mc no.
C 2 s khc bit quan trng gia 2 ch s lm
chng khng ng nht vi nhau:
- Ch s iu chnh GDP phn nh gi c ca mi
hng ha v dch v c sn xut trong ni a
(produced domestically), ngc li...
- ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) phn nh gi c ca
mi hng ha v dch v c mua bi ngi tiu
dng.
Trn Mnh Kin
SO SNH CPI & CH S IU CHNH GDP
2/14/2011
57
CPI so snh gi ca mt gi hng ha v dch v c
nh vi gi ca gi hng vo nm gc (ch thnh
thong mi thay i gi hng)...
ngc li, ch s iu chnh GDP so snh gi ca
cc hng ha v dch v hin ang c sn xut vi
gi ca cng nhng mt hng v dch v vo
nm gc.
CPI v GDP deflator ca Vit Nam
Nm 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CPI 4,0 3,2 7,7 8,3 7,5
GDP deflator 4,0 6,7 8,2 8,2 7,3
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
20
2 thc o v lm pht (M)
2/14/2011
58
1965
%/nm
15
CPI
GDP deflator
10
5
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 1995
Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
2/14/2011
59
Do mi giao dch u c ngi mua v ngi bn nn
tng chi tiu trong nn kinh t phi bng tng thu
nhp.
Tng sn phm ni a (Gross Domestic Product -
GDP) o lng tng chi tiu v cc hng ha v dch
v mi c sn xut v tng thu nhp c c t vic
sn xut hng ha v dch v .
Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
2/14/2011
60
GDP l gi th trng ca ton b hng ha v dch v
cui cng c sn xut bn trong mt quc gia trong mt
khong thi gian nht nh.
GDP c chia thnh 4 thnh phn chi tiu: tiu dng,
u t, chi tiu chnh ph v xut khu rng.
GDP danh ngha s dng gi hin ti nh gi mc kh
nng sn xut ca nn kinh t. GDP thc s dng gi ca
nm gc tnh gi tr ca cc hng ha v dch v c
sn xut ra.
Ch s iu chnh GDP c tnh bng cch ly GDP danh
ngha chia cho GDP thc o lng mc gi ca nn kinh
t.
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
21
TM TT
2/14/2011
61
GDP l mt cng c tt o lng phc li kinh t
bi v con ngi thch c thu nhp cao hn l thu
nhp thp.
Tuy nhin, khng phi l mt cng c hon ho
bi mt s yu t nh: thi gian th gin, mi trng
sch khng c tnh trong GDP.
Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
2/14/2011
62
CPI l mt thc o khng hon ho v mc sng v 3
l do: lch thay th, s xut hin cc hng ha mi
v s thay i khng lng ha c trong cht
lng.
Ch s iu chnh GDP khc vi CPI ch n bao
gm cc hng ha v dch v c sn xut hn l cc
hng ha v dch v c tiu th.
Hn na, CPI s dng mt gi hng ha c nh trong
khi ch s iu chnh GDP c th t ng thay i
nhm hng ha v dch v theo theo gian khi kt cu
ca GDP thay i.
Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
1
CHNG 3
L THUYT XC NH SN LNG
TNG SN LNG V
TNG THU NHP (Y)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 2
Tng sn lng (Aggregate output) l
tng s lng hng ha v dch v c
sn xut (hoc c cung cp) trong mt
nn kinh t trong mt khong thi gian nht
nh.
Tng thu nhp (Aggregate income) l
tng thu nhp nhn c bi cc tc nhn
sn xut trong mt giai on nht nh.
TNG SN LNG V
TNG THU NHP (Y)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 3
Tng thu nhp (sn lng) (Y) l mt thut
ng kt hp nhc chng ta rng tng sn
lng bng chnh xc vi tng thu nhp.
Khi chng ta ni v sn lng (Y), tc l
chng ta cp ti sn lng thc (real
output), hoc sn lng hng ha v dch
v c sn xut ch khng phi lng tin
c lu thng.
2/14/2011
2
THU NHP, TIU DNG
& TIT KIM (Y, C, and S)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 4
Mt h gia nh c th lm 2 vic (v ch 2 vic)
vi thu nhp ca h: h c th mua hng ha v
dch v - tc l tiu dng hoc h c th tit
kim.
Tit kim (Saving - S) l mt phn ca thu nhp
m h gia nh khng tiu dng trong mt
khong thi gian nht nh.
S Y C
y l mt ng nht thc (identity), tc l mt
biu thc lun lun ng.
5 of 38
HNH VI CHI TIU
Tit kim (S) Tng thu nhp (Y) Tiu dng (C)
Trong mt nn kinh t khng c thu, mi thu nhp
hoc s c dng tiu dng hoc tit kim.
TIU DNG H GIA NH V TIT KIM
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 6
Mt s yu t tc ng ti tng tiu
dng:
1. Thu nhp ca h gia nh
2. Ti sn ca h gia nh Vi du\Ti sn h gia nh gim mnh.mht
3. Li sut
4. D on ca h gia nh v tng lai
2/14/2011
3
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 7
Mi lin h gia tiu dng
v thu nhp c gi l
hm tiu dng
(Consumption function).
Vi mt h gia nh c th,
hm tiu dng cho thy
mc tiu dng mi
mc thu nhp.
T
i
u

d
n
g

h

g
i
a

n
h
Thu nhp ca h gia nh
C(Y)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 8
dc hm tiu dng
MPC c gi l khuynh
hng tiu dng bin
(Marginal Propensity to
Consume), hoc l t trng
phn thay i trong thu
nhp c dng chi
tiu.
0 < MPC < 1
T
n
g

t
i
u

d
n
g
Tng thu nhp (Y)
Y
C
C = C
0
+ MPC.Y
C
O
C = C
O
+ MPC.Y
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 9
Cc gi nh ca Keynes v hm tiu dng,
da trn c s phn tch tm l khch quan v
quan st ngu nhin:
u tin v quan trng nht, khuynh hng tiu
dng cn bin - mc tiu dng t mt ng thu
nhp tng thm - nm gia 0 v 1.
Th hai, t l tiu dng/thu nhp hay cn gi l
khuynh hng tiu dng bnh qun gim khi thu
nhp tng;
Th ba, thu nhp l nhn t quan trng ch yu
quyt nh n tiu dng v li sut ch ng mt
vai tr nh.
2/14/2011
4
GDP v tiu dng cui cng
Vit Nam, 2001-06
Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP 441.646 481.295 535.762 613.443 715.307 839.211 973..790
Tiu dng
cui cng
321.853 342.607 382.137 445.221 511.221 584.793 668.540
% trong
GDP
72,88 71,18 71,33 72,58 71,47 69,68 68.65
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
GDP
T
i
u
d
n
g
c
u
i c
n
g
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 10
Quan h gia thu nhp v tiu dng M, 1960-2006
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 12
T l trong thu nhp c dng tit
kim c gi l khuynh hng tit kim
bin (Marginal Propensity to Save - MPS).
MPC + MPS 1
Khi chng ta c th bit c ngi ta s
tiu dng bao nhiu t phn thu nhp c
c, ta s tnh c tit kim:
S Y - C
2/14/2011
5
V d v hm tiu dng: C = 100 + 0,75Y
Tng thu nhp, Y
(T USD)
Tng tiu dng, C
(T USD)
0 100
80 160
100 175
200 250
400 400
600 550
800 700
1.000 850
13 of 31
C = 100 + 0,75Y
C = 100 + 0,75Y
V d v hm tiu dng: C = 100 + 0,75Y Vi
du\tieu dung-tiet kiem.doc
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 14
Y - C = S
Tng
thu nhp
(T USD)
Tng tiu dng
(T USD)
Tng tit kim
(T USD)
0 100 -100
80 160 -80
100 175 -75
200 250 -50
400 400 0
600 550 50
800 700 100
1,000 850 150
S Y - C
C = 100 + 0,75Y
U T D KIN (I)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 15
u t (Investment) dng ch cc khon doanh
nghip dng xy dng nh xng v mua thit
b mi hoc thm vo hng tn kho, tt c nhng
khon lm tng thm vn (capital stock).
Mt trong nhng thnh phn ca u t thay
i hng tn kho mt phn c quyt nh bi
cc h gia nh s mua bao nhiu nn khng ph
thuc vo quyt nh ca doanh nghip.
Thay i trong tn kho = Sn xut Lng bn ra
2/14/2011
6
U T D KIN V U T THC T
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 16
u t d kin hoc u t mong mun
(Planned investment) ch nhng khon vn
thm vo v hng tn kho theo k hoch ca
doanh nghip.
u t thc t (Actual investment) ch lng
u t thc s xy ra. N bao gm c nhng
khon nh nhng thay i khng theo k hoch
ca hng tn kho.
U T D KIN V U T THC T
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 17
C 3 loi u t chnh:
Cc khon chi ca h gia nh xy v
mua nh ;
u t vo ti sn c nh ca doanh
nghip (my mc thit b v nh xng);
Tng thm hng tn kho ca doanh nghip
(gm tn kho nguyn liu, bn thnh
phm, thnh phm).
TC NG CA U T
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 18
u t c 2 tc ng quan trng ti nn kinh t:
- Th nht, u t l mt khon ln v rt d
thay i ca chi tiu. Do , nhng thay i
ln trong u t c nhiu nh hng ti tng
cu v qua tc ng ti sn lng v vic
lm (tc ng ngn hn).
- Th hai, u t to ra tch lu vn, thit b sn
xut, qua lm tng sn lng tim nng v
tng trng kinh t (tc ng di hn). Vi du\ICOR.mht Vi
du\Vinashin 1.mht Vi du\Vinashin 2.mht Vi du\Vinashin 3.mht Vi du\Vinashin 4.mht Vi du\Vinashin 5.mht Vi du\Vinashin 6.mht Vi
du\Vinashin 7.mht Vi du\Dung Qut 3.mht Vi du\Dung Qut 4.mht Vi du\ng H ch minh.mht Vi du\ODA b t vn ngc.mht Vi
du\CPI 2009.mht Vi du\chap nhan tham nhung.mht Vi du\Ngi Vit b t.mht
2/14/2011
7
NHNG NHN T
NH HNG TI U T
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 19
1.Doanh thu
Nu nn kinh t hot ng tri chy, doanh thu bn
hng cao, cc doanh nghip s tng u t.
2.Chi ph u t
Chi ph u t c xc nh bi li sut v thu. Li
sut cng cao th chi ph tr cho vn vay u t cng
ln, lm cho cc h gia nh v cc doanh nghip c xu
hng gim u t v ngc li. Thu cng tc ng
ti chi ph sn xut
3.K vng
Nu cc doanh nghip tin rng trong tng lai nn kinh
t s hot ng tt hn, th h s tch cc gia tng u
t v ngc li
HM U T D KIN
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 20
u t ph thuc vo nhiu
yu t nhng theo quan
im ca Keynes v cho
n gin, chng ta gi nh
rng u t d kin l c
nh. N s khng thay i
khi thu nhp thay i.
Khi mt bin, nh u t d
kin khng ph thuc vo
tnh trng ca nn kinh t th
n c gi l bin t nh
(Autonomous variable).
TNG CHI TIU D KIN (AE)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 21
Tng chi tiu d
kin (Planned
aggregate
expenditure) l tng
s tin m nn kinh
t d kin s chi
tiu trong mt giai
on nht nh. N
bng vi tiu dng
cng vi u t.
AE C + I
I = 25
C = 100 + 0,75Y
AE = C + I
125
2/14/2011
8
TNG SN LNG
(THU NHP) CN BNG
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 22
Cn bng (Equilibrium) s xy
ra khi khng c khuynh hng
cho s thay i. Trong kinh t v
m, cn bng xy ra khi tng chi
tiu d kin bng vi tng sn
lng.
TNG SN LNG
(THU NHP) CN BNG
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 23
Y > C + I
Tng sn lng > Tng chi tiu d kin
Tn kho > u t d kin
u t thc t > u t d kin
Mt cn bng (Disequilibria)
C + I > Y
Chi tiu d kin > Tng sn lng
Tn kho nh hn d kin
u t thc t < u t d kin
Tng sn lng: Y
Tng chi tiu d kin AE = C + I
Cn bng: Y = AE hoc Y = C + I
500
TNG SN LNG (THU NHP) CN BNG
Vi du\Hng tn kho cn.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 24
Tn kho khng d kin
gim: sn lng tng.
Khong cch lm pht
Tn kho khng d
kin tng: sn lng
gim. Khong cch
suy thoi
AE = C + I
275
725
45
0
Y
p
im cn
bng: Y = C + I
Sn lng tim nng l mc sn lng
c sn xut ra khi cc ngun lc trong
nn kinh t nh lao ng, vn c
s dng mc bnh thng
2/14/2011
9
CN BNG SN LNG
Mc tiu ca chnh sch kinh t v m l:
a sn lng trong nn kinh t t c
mc tim nng;
Tng chi tiu d kin bng vi mc sn
lng thc t sn xut ra (tng cung v
tng cu cn bng).
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 25
Sn lng tim nng v sn lng thc t M
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 26
GDP thc t v GDP tim nng ca Vit Nam
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 27
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP tiem nang
GDP thuc te da duoc hieu chinh mua vu
2/14/2011
10
28 of 34
SUY THOI, KHNG HONG V THT NGHIP Vi
du\Bng ma i khng hong.mht Vi du\Nc M thi i khng hong.mht Vi du\Khng hong 29-33 Vit Nam.mht Vi du\so snh suy
thoi.mht Vi du\c mng i khng hong.mht
GDP thc v t l tht nghip M, 19291933 v 19801982
Giai on i khng hong (GREAT DEPRESSION), 19291933
Nm Tng trng GDP thc T l tht nghip
S lng ngi tht nghip
(triu)
1929 3.2 1.5
1930 8.6 8.9 4.3
1931 6.4 16.3 8.0
1932 13.0 24.1 12.1
1933 .4 25.2 12.8
Note: Percentage fall in real GDP between 1929 and 1933 was 26.6 percent.
Giai on suy thoi (THE RECESSION), 19801982
Nm
Tng trng
GDP thc
T l tht nghip
S lng ngi
tht nghip
(triu)
S dng nng lc
sn xut (%)
1979 5.8 6.1 85.2
1980 0.2 7.1 7.6 80.9
1981 2.5 7.6 8.3 79.9
1982 1.9 9.7 10.7 72.1
Note: Percentage increase in real GDP between 1979 and 1982 was 0.1 percent.
Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
KINH T V M C IN
Kinh t v m c in (Classical
macroeconomic) lm vo b tc trong nhng
nm 1930, giai on i khng hong (Great
Depression) khi tht nghip tng cao v sn
lng st gim trn ton th gii.
Kinh t hc v m c in d on rng i
khng hong s chm dt nhng khng a ra
c bin php no lm n kt thc n
nhanh hn.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 29
LUT SAY
Lut Say (Says Law):
Mt lun ni ting ca nh kinh t hc J.B.Say
ni rng: cung s to ra cu ca chnh n.
Vic sn xut ra hng ha v dch v s to ra
cng c v kh nng sn sng mua cc hng
ha v dch v khc.
Khi cung to ra cu ca chnh n, iu ny ng
ngha vi vic chi tiu mong mun (desired
expenditures) s bng vi chi tiu thc t (actual
expenditures).
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 30
2/14/2011
11
QUAN IM CA KEYNES
Kinh t hc v m ca Keynes (Keynesian
macroeconomics) l gii v cch thc hot ng ca
nn kinh t th trng, trong nhn mnh rng, bn
cht ca nn kinh t th trng l bt n v chnh ph
cn phi c mt vai tr can thip ch ng nn kinh
t t c mc ton dng (full employment) v tng
trng kinh t bn vng.
Keynes cho rng, chnh v c qu t chi tiu v u t
nn dn ti cuc i khng hong.
Theo Keynes, trong ngn hn, tng sn lng ca nn
kinh t do tng cu quyt nh.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 31
NGN HN V DI HN
Mc tiu ngn hn (Short-Term) i nghch vi mc
tiu di hn (Long-Term)
Keynes nhn mnh vo ngn hn vo tht nghip
v mc sn lng tn tht.
Di hn l s nh hng sai lm cho cc vn
hin ti. Trong di hn, mi ngi u cht. Cc
nh kinh t t t cho mnh mt nhim v qu d
di, qu v tch s nu nh trong ma ging bo h
ch c th ni vi chng ta rng bo tp qua v
tri s yn, bin s lng.
Trong thp nin 70 v 80, cc nh kinh t v m bt
u quan tm nhiu hn ti cc mc tiu di hn
lm pht v tng trng kinh t.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 32
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 33
C Y 100 75 . I 25
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Tng sn
lng
(Thu nhp) (Y)
Tng
tiu dng (C)
u t
d kin(I)
Tng chi tiu
d kin (AE)
C + I
Thay i tn
kho khng
d tnh
Y (C + I)
Cn bng?
(Y = AE?)
100 175 25 200 100 Khng
200 250 25 275 75 Khng
400 400 25 425 25 Khng
500 475 25 500 0 C
600 550 25 575 + 25 Khng
800 700 25 725 + 75 Khng
1.000 850 25 875 + 125 Khng
2/14/2011
12
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 34
Gi s nn kinh t c hm tiu dng l:
C = C
0
+ MPC.Y; I = I
0
Khi : AE = C + I = C
0
+ MPC.Y + I
0
Mun cho th trng hng ha v dch v cn bng,
sn lng sn xut ra trong nn kinh t phi bng
tng chi tiu d kin, ngha l:
Y = AE
hay: Y = C
0
+ MPC.Y + I
0
Y (1-MPC) = C
0
+ I
0
0 0 0
1
Y (C I )
1 MPC

TNG SN LNG
(THU NHP) CN BNG
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 35
Y Y 100 75 25 .
Y C I
(1)
C Y 100 75 .
(2)
I 25
(3)
Th (2) v (3) vo (1) chng ta
c:
Ch c 1 gi tr ca Y biu thc
trn l ng:
Y Y 100 75 25 .
Y Y .75 100 25
Y Y .75 125
.25 125 Y
Y
125
25
500
.
36 of 38
CCH TIP CN BNG U T V TIT KIM
Nu u t d kin bng ng vi tit kim, tng chi tiu d
kin s bng ng vi tng sn lng v cn bng xy ra.
2/14/2011
13
CCH TIP CN BNG
U T V TIT KIM
Nn kinh t c hm tit kim: S = S
0
+ MPS.Y; Hm u t:
I = I
0
Khi nn kinh t s cn bng nu S = I tc l:
S
0
+ MPS.Y
d
= I
0
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 37
S = -100 + 0,25Y
d
I = 25
S NHN
S nhn =
Mc thay i trong thu nhp
Mc thay i trong chi tiu t nh
S nhn (Multiplier) l t s thay i trong mc
cn bng ca sn lng khi c s thay i
trong mt bin t nh.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 38
S NHN
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 39
S nhn ca u t t nh m t tc ng
ca mt s tng ln ca u t d kin ti
sn xut, thu nhp, tiu dng v sn lng
cn bng.
Qui m ca s nhn ph thuc vo dc
ca ng tng chi tiu d kin.
2/14/2011
14
V d v s nhn
u t t nh thm vo
(u t)
Chi tiu ng d
thm vo
(Tiu dng)
Tng chi tiu thm vo =
Tng GDP thm vo
Vng 1 $100 t $0 $100 t
Vng 2 0 75 t 175 t
Vng 3 0 56 t 231 t
Vng 4 0 42 t 273 t
Vng 5 0 32 t 305 t
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Vng 10 0 8 t 377 t
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Vng 15 0 2 t 395 t
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Vng 19 0 1 t 398 t
N 0 0 $400 t
S NHN
100 + 100 0,75 + (100 0,75) 0,75 +
((1000,75) 0,75) 0,75+
= 100 0,75 + 100 0,75
2
+ 100 0,75
3
++
100 0,75
n
= 100 (0,75 + 0,75
2
+ 0,75
3
++ 0,75
n
)
= 100 1/(1-0,75)
= 100 4 = 400
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 41
S NHN
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 42
Cho hm tiu dng: C = C
0
+ MPC.Y; Hm u t: I = I
0
Sn lng cn bng ca nn kinh t l:
Nu u t hoc tiu dng thay i mt lng I
0
th u t mi:
I
1
= I
0
+ I
0
. Sn lng cn bng mi s l:
m chnh l s nhn chi tiu hay cn thng c gi tt l s nhn

0 0 0
1
Y (C I )
1 MPC

1
m
1 MPC
1 0 1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
1 1
Y (C I ) (C I I )
1 MPC 1 MPC
1 1
Y (C I ) I Y Y
1 MPC 1 MPC

0 0
1
Y I
1 MPC

2/14/2011
15
S NHN Vi du\Kch cu cng c nguyn tc.mht Vi du\Thch thc kch cu.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 43
C = 100 + 0,75Y;
I = 25; I = 100
Sau khi c s tng ln
trong u t t nh,
sn lng cn bng
tng ln gp 4 ln
khon tng trong u
t t nh.
I = 100
AE
1
= C + I
AE
2
= C + I + I
I = 100
C = 300
AE = 400
A
B
QUI M CA S NHN
TRONG THC T Vi du\so nhan 1.doc
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 44
Qui m s nhn ca nn kinh t
M l khong 1,4. V d, mt s
tng ln trong chi tiu t nh l
10 t USD c mong i s lm
tng GDP theo thi gian ln 14 t
USD. Vi du\s nhn vit nam.mht Vi du\kch cu nng nghip.mht
Tc ng ca s nhn trong i khng hong
nhng nm 30 M
Tc ng ca s
nhn ng gp
vo mc tht
nghip rt cao
trong giai on
i khng hong
Nm Tiu dng u t Xut khu rng GDP thc T l tht nghip
1929 $661 t $91.3 t -$9.4 t $865 t 3.2%
1933 $541 t $17.0 t -$10.2 t $636 t 24.9%
2/14/2011
16
NGHCH L CA TIT KIM Vi du\Nht li tiu dng.mht Vi du\Ngi
Trung quc tn tin.mht Vi du\Chi tieu d xn M.mht Vi du\Lng nan-Obama.mht Vi du\nghich ly tiet kiem.doc
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 46
Khi cc h gia nh
tr nn lo lng v
tng lai v quyt
nh tit kim nhiu
hn, s gim xung
trong tiu dng s
tng ng lm gim
chi tiu v thu nhp.
H gia nh cui cng s tiu dng t hn
nhng h khng tit kim c nhiu hn.
VAI TR CA CHNH PH TRONG NN
KINH T
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 47
Khng c vn no gy tranh lun nhiu hn
vn v vai tr ca chnh ph trong nn kinh t.
Vi du\ng V N L.mht Vi du\Nhng nh Cao Ch Huy.mht
Chnh ph c th tc ng ti nn kinh t theo 2
cch:
Chnh sch ti kha (Fiscal policy) l vic Chnh
ph s dng chi tiu v thu.
Chnh sch tin t (Monetary policy) ch hnh
vi ca Ngn hng trung ng trong vic iu khin
lng cung tin ca quc gia.
THU RNG (T) V THU NHP KH DNG (Y
d
)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 48
Thu rng (Net taxes) l thu m cc
doanh nghip v h gia nh np cho
chnh ph tr i cc khon chuyn
nhng t chnh ph cho khu vc h gia
nh: NT = T - Tr
Thu nhp kh dng (Disposable) hoc
thu nhp sau thu (after-tax income - Y
d
)
bng vi tng thu nhp tr i thu.
Y
d
Y - T
2/14/2011
17
49 of 40
THU RNG (T) V CHI TIU CHNH PH (G) TRONG
LUNG THU NHP
NN KINH T NG C KHU VC CHNH
PH (CHA C THU)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 50
Gi nh hm chi tiu ca chnh ph (G) l mt s c
nh, khng ph thuc vo thu nhp hoc cc bin
s khc, tc l: G = G
0
AE = C + I + G = C
0
+ MPC.Y + I
0
+ G
0
iu kin cn bng sn lng s l: Y = AE
Y = C
0
+ MPC.Y + I
0
+ G
0
= (C
0
+ I
0
+ G
0
) + MPC.Y
Sn lng cn bng l:
0 0 0 0
1
Y (C I G )
1 MPC

THM HT NGN SCH

2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 51
Thm ht ngn sch ca chnh ph (Budget
deficit) l s chnh lch gia khon c chi
tiu (G) v khon thu m chnh ph thu
c trong mt giai on nht nh.
Nu G vt qu T, chnh ph phi vay mn
ti tr cho thm ht bng cch bn tri
phiu hoc tn phiu chnh ph. Khi , mt
phn ca tit kim khu vc h gia nh (S) s
chuyn sang chnh ph. Vi du\tham hut ngan sach.mht Vi du\tham hut ngan sach
2.mht Vi du\nh nc ln t.mht
Thm ht ngn sch G - T
2/14/2011
18
THM THU VO HM THU NHP
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 52
Hm tng thu nhp gi tr thnh hm
thu nhp kh dng (sau thu)
C = C
0
+ MPC.Y
d
Y
d
= Y - T
C = C
0
+ MPC.(Y - T)
Sn lng cn bng: Y = C + I + G
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 53
Tm im cn bng vi I = 100, G = 100 v T = 100
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Sn lng
(Thu nhp)
Y
Thu
rng
T
Thu nhp
kh dng
Yd = Y T
Tiu dng
(C = 100 + .75 Yd)
Tit kim
S
(Yd C)
u t
d kin
I
Chi tiu
chnh ph
G
Tng chi tiu
d kin
C + I + G
Thay i
khng d tnh
hng tn kho
Y - (C + I + G)
iu chnh ti
im cn bng
300 100 200 250 - 50 100 100 450 - 150 Sn lng
500 100 400 400 0 100 100 600 - 100 Sn lng
700 100 600 550 50 100 100 750 - 50 Sn lng
900 100 800 700 100 100 100 900 0 Cn bng
1,100 100 1,000 850 150 100 100 1,050 + 50 Sn lng
1,300 100 1,200 1,000 200 100 100 1,200 + 100 Sn lng
1,500 100 1,400 1,150 250 100 100 1,350 + 150 Sn lng
C Y
d
100 75 . C Y T 100 75 . ( )
CC KHON R R V BM VO
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 54
Thu (T) l mt khon r r (leakage) t lung thu
nhp. Tit kim (S) cng l mt khon r r.
Ti im cn bng, tng sn lng (thu nhp (Y)
bng vi tng chi tiu d kin (AE) v khon r r
(S + T) phi bng vi khon bm vo (injections)
d kin (I + G).
AE C + I + G
Y C + S + T
C + S + T = C + I + G
S + T = I + G
2/14/2011
19
S nhn chi tiu chnh ph
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 55
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Sn lng
(Thu nhp)
Y
Thu
rng
T
Thu nhp
kh dng
Yd = Y T
Tiu dng
(C = 100 + .75 Yd)
u t
d kin
I
Chi tiu
chnh ph
G
Tng chi tiu
d kin
C + I + G
Thay i
khng d tnh
hng tn kho
Y - (C + I + G)
iu chnh ti im
cn bng
300 100 200 250 100 150 500 200 Sn lng
500 100 400 400 100 150 650 150 Sn lng
700 100 600 550 100 150 800 100 Sn lng
900 100 800 700 100 150 950 50 Sn lng
1,100 100 1,000 850 100 150 1,100 0 Cn bng
1,300 100 1,200 1,000 100 150 1,250 + 50 Sn lng
S nhn chi tiu chnh ph Vi du\Phn i cu tr kinh t.mht Vi du\Phng Ty
kch cu qu t.mht Vi du\giangle Policy lags.mht Vi du\Ni lo t tri phiu.mht Vi du\sn bay 220 triu.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 56
G = 50
AE
1
= C + I + G
1
AE
2
= C + I + G
2
S NHN THU
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 57
Mt s ct gim thu lm tng thu nhp
kh dng v qua lm tng chi tiu tiu
dng. Thu nhp s tng ln bng vi s
nhn nhn vi lng ct gim thu.
Mt s ct gim thu khng c tc ng
trc tip ti chi tiu. S nhn ca s thay
i trong thu nh hn s nhn ca s
thay i trong chi tiu chnh ph.
2/14/2011
20
S NHN THU
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 58
AE = C + I + G
Vi: C = C
0
+ MPC.Y
d
= C
0
+ MPC(Y T
0
); I = I
0;
G
= G
0
AE = C
0
+ MPC(Y T
0
) + I
0
+ G
0
Do ti im cn bng: AE = Y:
Y = C
0
+ I
0
+ G
0
+ MPC(Y T
0
)
Y(1-MPC) = C
0
+ I
0
+ G
0
MPC.T
0
0 0 0 0 0
1 - MPC
Y (C + I + G ) + T
1-MPC 1-MPC

S NHN THU
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 59
Trong m
t
l s nhn thu:
Ta thy s nhn v thu c du (-) hm
thu c tc dng ngc chiu vi thu nhp
v sn lng. Khi thu tng ln, thu nhp v
sn lng gim i v ngc li. Vi du\giam thue-My.mht Vi
du\Trung quc gi ha.mht Vi du\Ngi Trung Quc ngi .mht Vi du\Nht mun c thm tr em.mht Vi du\thue.doc
t
- MPC
m
1-MPC
S NHN NGN SCH CN BNG

2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 60
y ta s c mt khi nim mi l s
nhn ngn sch cn bng v:
iu ny c ngha l nu chi tiu chnh
ph G v mc thu T cng tng 1 lng
bng nhau G = T gi cho ngn sch
c cn bng th sn lng s tng ln 1
lng l Y v Y = G = T.
t
1 - MPC
m m 1
1-MPC 1-MPC

2/14/2011
21
S NHN NGN SCH CN BNG
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 61
Finding Equilibrium After a $200 Billion Balanced Budget Increase in G and T
(All Figures in Billions of Dollars; G and T Have Increased From 100 in Table 25.1 to 300 Here)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Sn lng
(Thu nhp)
Y
Thu
rng
T
Thu nhp
kh dng
Yd = Y T
Tiu dng
(C = 100 + .75 Yd)
u t
d kin
I
Chi tiu
chnh ph
G
Tng chi tiu
d kin
C + I + G
Thay i
khng d tnh
hng tn kho
Y - (C + I + G)
iu chnh ti
im cn bng
500 300 200 250 100 300 650 150 Sn lng
700 300 400 400 100 300 800 100 Sn lng
900 300 600 550 100 300 950 50 Sn lng
1,100 300 800 700 100 300 1,100 0 Cn bng
1,300 300 1,000 850 100 300 1,250 + 50 Sn lng
1,500 300 1,200 1,000 100 300 1,400 + 100 Sn lng
NN KINH T M
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 62
Trong nn kinh t m chng ta phi xt n hot
ng xut, nhp khu. Nh vy, trong hm tng
chi tiu d kin s c thm cc bin:
Xut khu (X) l lng chi tiu ca ngi nc
ngoi mua hng ha v dch v c sn
xut trong nc;
Nhp khu (M) l lng chi tiu ca ngi trong
nc (nh h gia nh, doanh nghip, chnh
ph) mua hng ha v dch v sn xut
nc ngoi.
Xut khu rng l phn chnh lch gia gi tr
xut khu v gi tr nhp khu
NN KINH T M
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 63
Xut khu chu tc ng ca 4 nhn t chnh l: GDP
nc ngoi, mc chuyn mn ha sn xut ton cu,
gi tng i ca hng sn xut trong nc v hng ha
tng t nc ngoi, t gi hi oi. Gi nh xut
khu X l 1 hm c lp vi thu nhp v sn lng, tc
l: X = X
0
Nhp khu ph thuc rt ln vo tnh hnh kinh t ni a,
c bit l sn lng v thu nhp. Thng th thu nhp
v sn lng cng cao th nhp khu cng ln. Do , c
th gi nh hm nhp khu M ph thuc vo sn lng
Y, tc l:
M = MPM.Y
Trong : MPM l xu hng nhp khu bin, cho bit 1
ng tng ln trong thu nhp s lm tng nhp khu ln
bao nhiu ng.
2/14/2011
22
NN KINH T M
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 64
C = C
0
+ MPC.Y
d
= C
0
+ MPC.(Y T
0
)
I = I
0;
G = G
0
; X = X
0;
M = MPM.Y
Thay tt c vo hm tng chi tiu d kin:
AE = C
0
+ MPC.(Y T
0
) + I
0
+ G
0
+ X
0
MPM.Y
Ti im cn bng ca nn kinh t: Y = AE:
Y = C
0
+ MPC.(Y T
0
) + I
0
+ G
0
+ X
0
MPM.Y
Y(1-MPC +MPM) = C
0
+ I
0
+ G
0
+ X
0
MPC.T
0
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 - MPC
Y (C + I + G + X ) + T
1 - MPC + MPM 1 - MPC + MPM

NN KINH T M
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 65
Chng ta c cc s nhn mi l:
V s nhn ca thu l:
Chng ta thy rng gi tr tuyt i ca cc s nhn
gim so vi nn kinh t ng. S nhn trong nn kinh
t m ph thuc vo c MPM, khi MPM cng ln th s
nhn cng nh. iu ny cho thy hng ho nhp khu
c th lm gim sn lng trong nc.
1
1
m
1 - MPC +MPM
t1
- MPC
m
1 - MPC + MPM
2/14/2011
1
CHNG 4
M HNH TNG CUNG V TNG CU
2/14/2011 1
CC BIN NG KINH T NGN HN
Suy thoi (Recession) l giai on c s st
gim trong thu nhp thc t v tht nghip
tng ln.
Khng hong (Depression) l khi c suy thoi
trm trng. vi du\Recession hay l Depression.mht
Cc bin ng kinh t din ra bt thng v
khng d bo c. vi du\Chuyn gia kinh t bi ri.mht vi du\Cc nh kinh t xin li.mht vi
du\S tr li ca kinh t hc suy thoi.mht vi du\Thay i kinh t hc.mht vi du\Khng hong kinh t (hc).mht vi du\Tai chinh hanh
vi.pdf
Nhng bin ng trong nn kinh t c gi l
chu k kinh doanh (Business cycle). vi du\Khng hong s li xy
ra.mht
2/14/2011 2
Bin ng trong GDP thc M
T USD
(gi gc 1996)
Real GDP
GDP thc
$10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
2/14/2011
2
M HNH C BN V BIN NG
KINH T
C 2 bin s thng c s dng phn
tch cc bin ng ngn hn.
Tng sn lng hng ha v dch v ca
nn kinh t c o lng bng GDP thc.
Mc gi chung ca nn kinh t c o
lng bi CPI hoc Ch s iu chnh GDP.
2/14/2011 4
M HNH C BN V BIN NG
KINH T
M hnh c bn v Tng cu (Aggregate
Demand) v Tng cung (Aggregate
Supply)
Cc nh kinh t s dng m hnh tng cu
v tng cung l gii cc bin ng ngn
hn ca hot ng kinh t xung quanh xu
hng di hn ca chng.
2/14/2011 5
M HNH C BN V BIN NG
KINH T
M hnh c bn v ng tng cu v
tng cung
ng tng cu (Aggregate-demand curve)
cho thy s lng hng ha v dch v m
cc h gia nh, doanh nghip v chnh ph
mun mua mi mc gi.
ng tng cung (Aggregate-supply curve)
cho thy s lng hng ha v dch v m
doanh nghip chn sn xut v bn
mi mc gi.
2/14/2011 6
2/14/2011
3
ng tng cung v ng tng cu
Tng sn lng
Mc
gi
0
ng
tng cung, AS
ng
tng cu, AD
Sn lng
cn bng
Mc gi
cn bng
2/14/2011 7
NG TNG CU
4 thnh phn ca GDP (Y) ng gp vo tng
cu hng ha v dch v:
Y = C + I + G + NX
2/14/2011 8
ng tng cu
Tng sn lng
Mc
gi
0
ng tng cu
P
Y Y
2
P
2
1. Mt s
gim xung
trong mc gi . . .
2. . . . lm tng lng cu
v hng ha v dch v
2/14/2011 9
2/14/2011
4
TI SAO NG TNG CU DC
XUNG
Mc gi v Tiu dng: Hiu ng ti sn
(Wealth Effect)
Mc gi v u t: Hiu ng li sut
(Interest Rate Effect)
Mc gi v Xut khu rng (The
Exchange-Rate Effect)
2/14/2011 10
TI SAO NG TNG CU DC
XUNG
Mc gi v tiu dng: Hiu ng ti sn
Mt s gim xung trong mc gi lm
ngi tiu dng cm thy giu c hn, iu
n lt n li kch thch h chi tiu
nhiu hn.
S tng ln trong chi tiu ca ngi tiu
dng c ngha l lng cu v hng ha v
dch v tng ln.
2/14/2011 11
TI SAO NG TNG CU DC
XUNG
Mc gi v u t: Hiu ng li sut
Mc gi thp hn lm gim li sut, iu
ny s kch thch chi tiu u t nhiu hn.
S tng ln trong chi tiu u t c ngha l
lng cu v hng ha v dch v s ln
hn.
2/14/2011 12
2/14/2011
5
TI SAO NG TNG CU DC
XUNG
Mc gi v Xut khu rng: Hiu ng t
gi hi oi
Khi mc gi Vit Nam gim xung s lm
li sut gim, t gi hi oi thc s gim i
v kch thch xut khu.
Xut khu rng tng ln cng lm tng
lng cu v hng ha v dch v.
2/14/2011 13
TI SAO NG TNG CU C TH
DCH CHUYN
S dc xung ca ng tng cu cho thy
s st gim trong mc gi s lm tng tng
lng cu v hng ha v dch v.
Tuy nhin, nhiu yu t khc c th tc ng
ti lng cu v hng ha v dch v bt
c mc gi no.
Khi mt trong nhng yu t ny thay i,
ng tng cu s dch chuyn.
2/14/2011 14
TI SAO NG TNG CU C TH
DCH CHUYN
S dch chuyn ng tng cu l do:
Tiu dng
u t
Chi tiu chnh ph
Xut khu rng
2/14/2011 15
2/14/2011
6
S DCH CHUYN CA NG TNG CU
Tng sn lng
Mc
gi
0
AD
1
P
1
Y
1
AD
2
Y
2
2/14/2011 16
NHNG BIN S LM DCH CHUYN
NG AD
Bin s Phn ca tng cu
b nh hng
Tc ng ti
tng cu khi
bin s tng
Tc ng ti
tng cu khi
bin s gim
Thu
Tiu dng (C) Gim Y nn AD
dch sang tri
Tng Y nn AD
dch sang phi
u t (I)
Li sut
Tiu dng (C) Gim Y nn AD
dch sang tri
Tng Y nn AD
dch sang phi
u t (I)
K vng
Tiu dng (C) Tng Y nn AD
dch sang phi
Gim Y nn AD
dch sang tri
u t (I)
Sc mnh
ng ni t
Xut, nhp khu
(NX)
Gim Y nn AD
dch sang tri
Tng Y nn AD
dch sang phi
Chi tiu chnh
ph
Chi tiu chnh ph
(G)
Tng Y nn AD
dch sang phi
Gim Y nn AD
dch sang tri
2/14/2011 17
NG TNG CUNG
Trong di hn, ng tng cung l
thng ng.
Trong ngn hn, ng tng cung dc
ln.
2/14/2011 18
2/14/2011
7
NG TNG CUNG
ng tng cung di hn (The Long-Run
Aggregate-Supply Curve)
Trong di hn, sn xut hng ha v dch v
ca nn kinh t ph thuc vo mc cung ca
lao ng, vn, ti nguyn v trnh sn xut
cng ngh c s dng sn xut hng ha
v dch v.
Mc gi khng tc ng ti nhng bin ny
trong di hn.
2/14/2011 19
ng tng cung di hn (LAS)
Tng sn lng Mc sn lng
t nhin
Mc
gi
0
ng
tng cung
di hn
P
2
1. Mt s
thay i trong
mc gi . . .
2. . . khng tc ng
ti sn lng hng ha
v dch v c sn xut
trong di hn.
P
2/14/2011 20
NG TNG CUNG
ng tng cung di hn
ng tng cung thng ng mc sn
lng t nhin (natural output).
Mc sn lng ny cng c gi l sn
lng tim nng (potential output) hoc sn
lng mc ton dng (full-employment
output).
2/14/2011 21
2/14/2011
8
TI SAO NG TNG CUNG C TH
DCH CHUYN
Bt k s thay i no trong nn kinh t lm
thay i mc sn lng t nhin cng lm
dch chuyn ng tng cung di hn.
S dch chuyn c phn loi da theo cc
yu t khc nhau tc ng vo sn lng
trong m hnh c in.
2/14/2011 22
TI SAO NG TNG CUNG C TH
DCH CHUYN
ng tng cung dch chuyn v cc
yu t:
Lao ng
Vn
Ti nguyn thin nhin
Cng ngh sn xut
2/14/2011 23
S dch chuyn ca ng tng cung di hn
Tng sn lng
Mc
gi
0
2/14/2011 24
LRAS
2008
210 t
LRAS
2006
100 t
LRAS
2007
150 t
2/14/2011
9
Tng trng di hn v lm pht
Tng sn lng Y1980
AD1980
AD1990
Tng cu AD2000
Mc
gi
0
ng
tng cung
di hn,
LRAS1980
Y1990
LRAS1990
Y2000
LRAS2000
P1980
1. Trong di hn
tin b cng ngh
lm dch chuyn
ng tng cung
di hn . . .
4. . . . v lm
tng lm pht
3. . . . lm tng
sn lng ... .
P1990
P2000
2. . . . v tng cung tin
lm dch chuyn
ng tng cu.. . .
2/14/2011 25
TI SAO NG TNG CUNG DC
LN TRONG NGN HN
Cc bin ng ngn hn trong sn lng v
mc gi c th c coi nh s lch i khi
xu th di hn.
Trong ngn hn, mt s tng ln trong mc
gi chung c xu hng lm tng lng cung
v hng ha v dch v.
Mt s gim xung trong mc gi c xu
hng lm gim lng cung v hng ha v
dch v.
2/14/2011 26
ng tng cung ngn hn
Tng sn lng
Mc
gi
0
ng
tng cung
ngn hn
1. Mt s tng
ln trong
mc gi . . .
2. . . . lm tng lng cung
v hng ha v dch v
trong ngn hn.
Y
2
P
2
Y
1
P
1
2/14/2011 27
2/14/2011
10
LN TRONG NGN HN
L thuyt nhn thc sai lm (The
Misperceptions Theory)
L thuyt tin lng cng nhc (The Sticky-
Wage Theory)
L thuyt gi c cng nhc (The Sticky-Price
Theory)
2/14/2011 28
LN TRONG NGN HN
L thuyt nhn thc sai lm
S thay i trong mc gi chung tm thi lm
ngi cung cp nhn nh sai v iu g ang
din tra trn cc th trng c bit, ni h bn
sn phm ca mnh.
S st gim trong mc gi s gy ra nhn nh
sai lm v mc gi tng i.
Nhn nh sai lm ny s dn nh cung cp ti
vic gim lng cung hng ha v dch v.
2/14/2011 29
LN TRONG NGN HN
L thuyt tin lng cng nhc
Tin lng danh ngha chm iu chnh hoc
cng nhc (sticky) trong ngn hn:
Tin lng khng iu chnh ngay lp tc vi s
st gim trong mc gi.
Mc gi gim lm cho vic sn xut v thu nhn
cng t li nhun hn.
iu ny dn ti vic doanh nghip gim lng
cung v hng ha v dch v.
2/14/2011 30
2/14/2011
11
L THUYT GI C CNG NHC
Gi c mt s loi hng ha v dch v iu
chnh chm chp theo cc iu kin kinh t
trn th trng:
Mt s st gim bt ng trong mc gi hng
ha s lm mt s doanh nghip c gi bn
cao hn mc mong mun.
iu ny lm gim doanh thu v dn ti
doanh nghip gim lng cung cp hng ha
v dch v h sn xut. vi du\taxi kh gim cc.mht vi du\Cha gim gi sn
phm.mht
2/14/2011 31
TI SAO NG TNG CUNG NGN
HN DCH CHUYN
Nhng yu t lm dch chuyn ng cung
Lao ng.
Vn.
Ti nguyn thin nhin.
Cng ngh.
Mc gi k vng.
2/14/2011 32
TI SAO NG TNG CUNG DCH
CHUYN
Mt s gia tng trong mc gi d kin s lm
gim lng cung v hng ha v dch v, dn
ti lm dch ng tng cung ngn hn sang
tri.
Mt s st gim trong mc gi d kin lm
tng lng cung v hng ha v dch v, dn
ti lm dch chuyn ng tng cung ngn
hn sang phi.
2/14/2011 33
2/14/2011
12
NHNG YU T LM NG TNG
CUNG DCH CHUYN
Bin s Tc ng ti tng cung
khi bin s gia tng
Tc ng ti tng cung
khi bin s gim
Gi u vo
Lm gim tng cung nn
ng AS dch sang tri
Lm tng tng cung nn
ng AS dch sang phi
Nng sut
Lm tng tng cung nn
ng AS dch sang phi
Lm gim tng cung nn
ng AS dch sang tri
Qui nh ca
chnh ph
Lm gim tng cung nn
ng AS dch sang tri
Lm tng tng cung nn
ng AS dch sang phi
2/14/2011 34
Cn bng di hn
Mc sn lng
t nhin
Sn lng
Mc
gi
0
ng
tng cung
ngn hn
ng
tng cung
di hn
ng
tng cu
A
Mc gi
cn bng
2/14/2011 35
2 NGUYN NHN CA BIN NG
KINH T
S dch chuyn ca tng cu
Trong ngn hn, tng cu dch chuyn gy
ra s bin ng trong tng sn lng hng
ha v dch v ca nn kinh t.
Trong di hn, s dch chuyn ca tng cu
ch tc ng ti mc gi chung m khng
tc ng ti sn lng.
2/14/2011 36
2/14/2011
13
S st gim ca tng cu vi du\Bng ma gim pht.mht vi du\Gim pht Nht.mht vi du\Gim
pht M.mht vi du\Keynes v suy thoi.mht
Sn lng
Mc
gi
0
AS
1
ng
tng cung
di hn
AD
1
A P
Y
AD
2
AS
2
1. Mt s st gim
trong tng cu . . .
2. . . . lm st gim sn lng trong ngn hn . . .
3. . . nhng theo
thi gian, ng
tng cung ngn hn
dch chuyn . . .
4. . . . v sn lng
tr v mc t nhin,
mc gi gim
C P
3
B P
2
Y
2
2/14/2011 37
S tng ln ca tng cu vi du\M v 2 ni lo.mht
Sn lng
Mc
gi
0
AS
2
ng
tng cung
di hn
AD
2
P
3
A
Y
AD
1
AS
1
1. Mt s tng ln
trong tng cu . . .
2. . . . lm tng sn lng trong ngn hn . . .
3. . . nhng theo
thi gian, ng
tng cung ngn hn
dch chuyn . . .
4. . . . sn lng tr v mc
t nhin v mc gi tng
C
P
1
B P
2
Y
2
2/14/2011 38
2 NGUYN NHN CA BIN NG
KINH T
Mt s dch chuyn bt li ca tng
cung
Khi c s st gim ca mt trong nhng
yu t quyt nh tng cung s lm
ng tng cung dch sang tri:
Sn lng gim xung di mc t
nhin.
Tht nghip tng.
Mc gi tng.
2/14/2011 39
2/14/2011
14
S dch chuyn bt li ca tng cung
Sn lng
Mc gi
0
ng tng cu
3. . . v mc
gi tng ln
2. . . . lm sn lng gim . . .
1. S dch chuyn bt li ca
ng tng cung ngn hn . . .
ng tng cung
ngn hn, AS
1
ng
tng cung
di hn
Y
A
P
AS
2
B
Y
2
P
2
2/14/2011 40
TC NG CA S DCH CHUYN
TNG CUNG
Lm pht km suy thoi (Stagflation)
Mt s bin ng bt li ca tng cung gy
ra tnh trng lm pht km suy thoi
(stagflation) - mt thi k c lm pht i
km suy thoi.
Sn lng gim v mc gi tng.
Cc nh lm chnh sch c th tc ng vo
tng cu nhng s khng th gii quyt c 2
vn bt li ny cng mt lc.
2/14/2011 41
TC NG CA S DCH CHUYN
TNG CUNG
p tr chnh sch i vi suy thoi
Cc nh lm chnh sch c th phn ng
vi suy thoi theo mt trong nhng cch
sau:
Khng lm g c, i cho gi v lng iu
chnh.
Lm tng tng cu bng cch s dng cc
chnh sch ti kha v tin t.
2/14/2011 42
2/14/2011
15
Phn ng li s dch chuyn bt li trong tng cungvi du\lam phat
dinh don.mht vi du\Tng cung-c Thy.mht vi du\Tng cung-Kin Thnh.mht vi du\Tng cung-Hng Giang.mht
Sn lng Sn lng t nhin
Mc
gi
0
ng tng cung
ngn hn, AS
1
ng
tng cung
di hn
ng tng cu, AD
1
P
2
A
P
AS
2
3. . . .lm
tng mc
gi ln
hn na. 4. . . nhng sn lng
c gi mc t nhin
2. . . .cc nh
lm chnh sch c th
phn ng bng cch
m rng tng cu.
1. Khi tng cung ngn hn
st gim . . .
AD
2
C
P
3
2/14/2011 43
CHNH SCH TRNG CU V CHNH SCH
TRNG CUNG
Chnh sch trng cu: Cho rng kch thch kinh t hiu
qu nht l t pha tng cu (lm ng AD dch sang
phi). Ch yu s dng chnh sch ti kha v tin t.
Chnh sch trng cung: Cho rng nn kch thch t pha
cung s hiu qu hn (lm ng AS dch sang phi).
Thng s dng cc bin php:
- Khuyn khch v thu i vi tit kim, u t v vic lm
- u t vo vn nhn lc
- Gim bt iu tit ca nh nc
- Pht trin c s h tng
2/14/2011 44
CHNH SCH TRNG CU V CHNH SCH TRNG CUNG
2/14/2011 45
Ct gim thu nhm tng thu nhp
kh dng ca ngi dn
Ct gim thu nhm khuyn khch
vic lm v u t
n bt nhu cu mi,
cc cng ty tng sn lng
Ngi dn s s dng thu nhp
tng thm mua nhiu hng ha
v dch v hn Tng cu tng
Cc cng ty u t nhiu hn,
tin hnh cng vic kinh doanh mi. Vic
lm mi c to ra, lao ng lm vic
hng hi hn-Tng cung tng
u t mi v lao ng lm vic
hng hi hn lm tng sn lng
Vic lm tng, nh my mi
mc ln, nn kinh t m rng
Chnh sch trng cung Chnh sch trng cu
2/14/2011
16
TM TT
Mi x hi u phi tri qua s bin ng trong
ngn hn xoay quanh khuynh hng di hn.
Nhng s bin ng ny l bt thng v hu
nh khng th on trc c.
Khi suy thoi xy ra, GDP thc v cc bin s
khc nh thu nhp, chi tiu v sn xut gim,
tht nghip tng.
2/14/2011 46
TM TT
Cc nh kinh t s dng m hnh tng cung
v tng cu phn tch cc bin ng kinh
t trong ngn hn.
Theo m hnh tng cung v tng cu, tng
sn lng m mc gi iu chnh cn
bng tng cung v tng cu.
2/14/2011 47
TM TT
ng tng cu dc xung v 3 l do: hiu
ng ti sn, hiu ng li sut v hiu ng t
gi hi oi.
Bt k s thay i no lm thay i tiu dng,
u t, chi tiu chnh ph hoc xut khu
rng mi mc gi s lm dch chuyn
ng tng cu.
2/14/2011 48
2/14/2011
17
TM TT
Trong di hn, ng tng cung thng ng.
Trong ngn hn, ng tng cung dc ln.
C 3 l thuyt gii thch s dc ln ca ng
tng cung: L thuyt nhn thc sai lm, L
thuyt tin lng cng nhc v L thuyt gi
c cng nhc.
2/14/2011 49
TM TT
Nhng bin c lm thay i kh nng sn
xut ca nn kinh t s lm dch chuyn
ng tng cung ngn hn.
Cng vy, v tr ca ng tng cung ngn
hn ph thuc vo mc gi k vng.
Mt nguyn nhn c th na lm bin ng
kinh t l dch chuyn ca ng tng cu.
2/14/2011 50
TM TT
Nguyn nhn th hai gy ra bin ng kinh t l
s dch chuyn ca ng tng cung.
nh tr km lm pht l giai on sn lng
gim xung v gi tng ln.
2/14/2011 51
2/14/2011
1
CHNG 5
TIN T, NGN HNG
V CHNH SCH TIN T
2/14/2011 1 Trn Mnh Kin
LCH S CA TIN T
Tin ra i do nhu cu cn mt vt trung gian
cho vic trao i hng ha.
Tiu chun ca tin:
- Phi c gi tr thc t
- D s dng trong t nhin
- D vn chuyn, khng qu cng knh
- C th chia nh c phc v cho nhng giao dch
nh
- Tn ti lu di, kh h hi
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 2
NH NGHA V CHC NNG CA TIN
Tin (Money) l tt c nhng ti sn trong nn
kinh t m mi ngi thng s dng mua
hng ha v dch v ca ngi khc. Vi du\Nga thi hng i
hng.mht Vi du\Tr lng bng bng in.mht
Tin c 3 chc nng trong nn kinh t:
Phng tin trao i (Medium of exchange)
n v hch ton (Unit of account)
Phng tin ct gi gi tr (Store of value)
2/14/2011 3 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
2
CHC NNG CA TIN
Phng tin trao i
Mt phng tin trao i l th m ngi mua phi trao
cho ngi bn khi h mun mua hng ha hoc dch v.
Mt phng tin trao i l bt c th g c chp nhn
rng ri thanh ton.
n v hch ton
Mt n v hch ton l thc o m mi ngi dng
ghi gi v cc khon n.
Phng tin ct gi gi tr
Mt phng tin ct gi gi tr l th m ngi mua dng
chuyn sc mua t hin ti ti tng lai.
2/14/2011 4 Trn Mnh Kin
CHC NNG CA TIN
Tnh thanh khon (Liquidity)
Tnh thanh khon l mc d dng m mt
ti sn c th chuyn thnh phng tin trao
i ca nn kinh t.
2/14/2011 5 Trn Mnh Kin
CC LOI TIN
Tin hng ha (Commodity money) l loi tin
di hnh thc hng ha c sn gi tr ni ti.
(VD: Vng, bc, Thuc l...)
Tin qui c: khng c gi tr ni ti (nh tin
xu, tin giy)
Tn t (Token money): tin t c bo m
bng kim loi qu
Tin php nh (Fiat money) l loi tin c s
dng do qui nh ca chnh ph.
2/14/2011 6 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
3
TIN TRONG NN KINH T
Tin mt (Currency) l tin giy v tin xu nm
trong tay cng chng.
Ti khon thanh ton (Demand deposits) l ti
khon nm trong ngn hng m ngi tit kim c
th s dng thng qua vic vit sc (tin gi khng
k hn).
2/14/2011 7 Trn Mnh Kin
8
KHI LNG TIN T - PHN LOI
Trong kinh t v m ngi ta nh ngha cc khi
tin t (mc cung tin) theo cc cch sau:
- Mc cung tin theo ngha hp (M1)
M1 = Tin mt ngoi
ngn hng
+ Tin gi khng k hn
dng sc
- Mc cung tin theo ngha rng (M2, M3, M4):
M2 = M1 + Tin gi tit kim c k hn
M3 = M2 + Tin gi khc
M4 = M3 + Tri phiu, c phiu
Cung tin M 2006 Vi du\B mt ngn hng.mht
Trn Mnh Kin
$6799
M1 + cc khon tit kim ngn ngy,
tit kim di,
qu h tng trn th trng tin t,
cc loi ti khon tit kim trn th
trng tin t
M2
$1391
C + tin tit kim,
sc du lch,
cc loi ti khon c th vit sc khc
M1
$739 Tin mt C
S lng
($ billions)
Bao gm K hiu
2/14/2011 9
2/14/2011
4
NGN HNG V T L D TR
D tr (Reserves) l khon tin tit kim ngn
hng nhn c nhng khng c mang cho
vay.
Trong h thng ngn hng d tr mt phn
(Fractional-reserve banking) cc ngn hng gi
mt phn tin gi nh l d tr v cho vay phn
cn li.
T l d tr (Reserve Ratio)
T l d tr l t trng tin gi m ngn hng gi li
nh l d tr. Vi du\V sao ngi Do Thi gii lm kinh t.mht Vi du\Ti chnh Hi gio.mht
2/14/2011 10 Trn Mnh Kin
QU TRNH TO TIN CA H THNG
NGN HNG Vi du\lao ng-ti chnh.mht
Khi mt ngn hng cho vay t khon d tr ca
n, lng cung tin s tng ln.
Lng cung tin b tc ng bi lng tin gi
trong ngn hng v lng cho vay ca ngn
hng.
Tin gi i vo ngn hng c ghi li c bn Ti sn
c (Assets) v bn Ti sn n (Liabilities).
T trng ca tng tin gi m ngn hng phi gi li
nh d tr c gi l t l d tr.
Cc khon vay (Loans) tr thnh ti sn ca ngn
hng.
2/14/2011 11 Trn Mnh Kin
NGN HNG
Ti khon ch T
(T-Account )
ca ngn hng:
Nhn tin gi,
Gi mt phn
nh d tr,
V cho vay
phn cn li.
Gi s t l
d tr l 10%
Ti sn c Ti sn n
NH th nht
D tr
$10.00
Cho vay
$90.00
Tin gi
$100.00
Tng ti sn
$100.00
Tng n
$100.00
2/14/2011 12 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
5
NGN HNG
Khi mt ngn hng cho vay, khon tin ni
chung s c gi vo ngn hng khc.
iu to ra nhiu tin gi hn v nhiu
khon d tr hn s c em cho vay.
Khi mt ngn hng cho vay t khon d tr ca
mnh, cung tin s tng ln.
2/14/2011 13 Trn Mnh Kin
14
VIC TO RA TIN CA CC NHTM
Vi t l d tr d = 10% th cc NHTG s cho vay vng 2
l 90% s tin cho vay vng 2 l M
v2
= 81$.
S tin ny s tr li NHTG l s tin gi vng 3 v to
ra chng th tin gi = 81$ v c th vit sc chi tiu
Qu trnh s tip tc cho n khi cc khon tin gi = 0
Ta s c kt qu sau:
Tng gi tr tin gi: (100+90+81++0) = 1000$
Tng d tr tin mt: (10+9+8,1++0) = 100$
Tng s tin cho vay: (90+81+72,9++0) = 900$
Nh vy vi mt khon tin gi ban u l 100$ thng
qua hot ng ca cc NHTM to ra tng s tin ngn
hng l 1000$ gp 10 ln s tin gi ban u (t l d tr
10% v s nhn tin t l 10)
S NHN TIN
Bao nhiu tin cui cng s c to ra trong
nn kinh t?
S nhn tin t (Money multiplier) l lng tin
m h thng ngn hng to ra vi mi ng d
tr.
2/14/2011 15 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
6
S NHN TIN
Ti sn c Ti sn n
Ngn hng u tin
D tr
$10.00
Cho vay
$90.00
Tin gi
$100.00
Tng ti sn
$100.00
Tng n
$100.00
Ti sn c Ti sn n
Ngn hng th hai
D tr
$9.00
Cho vay
$81.00
Tin gi
$90.00
Tng ti sn
$90.00
Tng n
$90.00
Tng cung tin = $190.00!
2/14/2011 16
S NHN TIN
S nhn tin t l o ngc ca t l d tr bt
buc:
M = 1/R
Vi t l d tr bt buc l R = 20% hoc 1/5.
S nhn l 5.
2/14/2011 17 Trn Mnh Kin
NGN HNG TRUNG NG
Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam l Ngn hng
Trung ng cng c chc nng tng t cc
NHTW khc trn th gii. Vi du\S hu NHTW.pdf
C nhim v gim st h thng ngn hng.
iu tit s lng tin t trong nn kinh t.
Chnh sch tin t c thi hnh bi NHTW:
Chnh sch tin t l vic thit lp mc cung tin
Mc cung tin lin quan ti s lng tin t c trong
nn kinh t.
2/14/2011 18 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
7
CHC NNG CA NHTW
3 chc nng ca mt NHTW in hnh:
iu tit cc ngn hng m bo rng h theo
ng cc qui nh nhm gi cho h thng ti chnh an
ton v hot ng tt. Vi du\Thanh tra ton din.mht
Hnh ng nh mt ngn hng ca cc ngn hng
(bankers bank), cho cc ngn hng vay v hnh
ng nh ngi cho vay cui cng (Lender of last
resort). Vi du\ t rt tin.mht Vi du\Tng hn mc bh.mht Vi du\Chu bo v tin gi.mht Vi du\My dong cua 23
ngan hang.mht Vi du\too big to fail.mht Vi du\Qu ln sp .mht Vi du\Bo him kp.mht Vi du\FDIC c th v.mht Vi du\B
too big to fail.mht Vi du\Sch Nguyn Vn Ngc.mht
Thi hnh chnh sch tin t (Monetary policy) bng
cch kim sot lng cung tin. Vi du\NHNN cung v rt tin.mht Vi du\Tng c
lp ca NHNN.mht Vi du\c lp-lm pht.pdf
2/14/2011 19 Trn Mnh Kin
CNG C KIM SOT TIN T CA NHTW
NHTW c 3 cng c kim sot chnh sch
tin t hay ni cch khc l kim sot lng
cung tin trong nn kinh t:
Nghip v th trng m (Open-market
operations)
Thay i t l d tr bt buc (Changing the
reserve requirement)
Thay i li sut chit khu (Changing the
discount rate)
2/14/2011 20 Trn Mnh Kin
Nghip v th trng m
NHTW thc thi cc nghip v th trng m
khi n mua hoc bn tri phiu chnh ph vi
cng chng:
Khi NHTW mua tri phiu chnh ph, cung tin
tng.
Cung tin s gim xung khi NHTW bn tri
phiu chnh ph. Vi du\tin phieu bat buoc.mht Vi du\Ti kha v tin t cha ng b.mht
2/14/2011 21 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
8
Thay i t l d tr bt buc
T l d tr bt buc l % trong tng s tin
gi ti ngn hng khng th mang i cho vay.
Tng t l d tr bt buc s lm gim cung
tin.
Gim d tr bt buc s lm tng cung tin. Vi
du\T l d tr.pdf
2/14/2011 22 Trn Mnh Kin
Thay i li sut chit khu
Li sut chit khu l li sut m cc ngn
hng phi tr khi vay tin ca NHTW.
Tng li sut chit khu s lm gim cung tin.
Gim li sut chit khu s lm tng cung tin.
Vi du\Li sut ti chit khu.pdf Vi du\B li sut c bn.mht
2/14/2011 23 Trn Mnh Kin
Vic kim sot cung tin ca NHTW khng
c chnh xc.
NHTW phi quan tm ti 2 vn ny sinh
t t l d tr tng phn ca ngn hng:
NHTW khng kim sot c s lng tin
m cc h gia nh mun gi nh tin tit
kim ngn hng.
NHTW khng kim sot c lng tin m
cc ngn hng mun cho vay.
2/14/2011 24 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
9
CUNG TIN
Cung tin
Cung tin c kim sot bi NHTW thng
qua:
Nghip v th trng m
Thay i d tr bt buc
Thay i li sut ti chit khu
Bi v c n nh bi NHTW, lng tin
cung ng khng ph thuc vo li sut.
Lng cung tin c nh c biu din bng
mt ng thng ng.
2/14/2011 25 Trn Mnh Kin
Cung tin
S lng
tin t
Li sut
0 Mc cung tin
c nh bi NHTW
Cung tin
2/14/2011 26
27
CU TIN
Khi nim
Cu tin (Money demand) l khi nim ch s
lng tin m cc ch th trong nn kinh t mun
nm gi chi tiu
Nhng l do ca vic gi tin
- Nhu cu giao dch ( chi tiu mua hng ha v
dch v hng ngy)
- Nhu cu d phng (p ng nhng chi tiu khng
d kin trc)
- Nhu cu u c (Gi tin trnh ri ro do gi
chng khon thay i)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
10
28
CC NHN T NH HNG N LNG
CU TIN T
Mc gi (P
i
): P
i
tng th lng cu tin danh ngha
tng (nhng lng cu tin thc t khng tng).
GDP thc (Y): GDP thc t cng ln, nhu cu giao
dch v d phng cng ln Lng cu tin thc
cng ln.
Li sut (r): Li sut cng cao, chi ph c hi ca
vic gi tin cng ln Lng cu v tin thc t
gim i (v ngc li).
T , c th a ra hm s cu tin t l:
D
M
= f(P
i
, Y, r)
L THUYT V S A THCH THANH KHON
Keynes pht trin L thuyt v s a thch
thanh khon (Theory of liquidity preference)
gii thch nhng yu t no s quyt nh
li sut ca nn kinh t.
Theo l thuyt ny, li sut s iu chnh
cn bng cung v cu tin.
2/14/2011 29 Trn Mnh Kin
Cu tin
Cu tin c quyt nh bi mt s yu t nhng theo l
thuyt a thch thanh khon, mt trong nhng yu t
quan trng nht l li sut.
Mi ngi chn gi tin thay v gi ti sn cng c li sut
cao bi v c th dng tin mua hng ha v dch v.
Chi ph c hi ca vic gi tin chnh l li sut bi c th
kim c li nhun nu gi nhng ti sn c th sinh li
khc.
Mt s tng ln trong li sut lm tng chi ph c hi ca
vic gi tin.
iu ny s dn ti cu v tin gim. Vi du\C tin git ti ch thi.mht
2/14/2011 30 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
11
Cn bng trn th trng tin t
(Equilibrium in the Money Market):
Theo l thuyt a thch thanh khon:
Li sut s iu chnh cn bng cung v
cu tin.
Ch c mt mc li sut, c gi l li
sut cn bng (equilibrium interest rate), ti
cung tin bng vi cu tin.
2/14/2011 31 Trn Mnh Kin
C cc gi nh sau v nn kinh t:
Mc gi c tng i cng nhc (stuck)
bt c mc gi no, li sut cng iu chnh
cn bng cung v cu tin
Mc ca sn lng s p ng vi tng
cu ca hng ha v dch v.
2/14/2011 32 Trn Mnh Kin
S lng
tin t
Li sut
0
Cu
tin
Mc cung tin
c nh bi NHTW
Cung tin
r
2
M
2
d
M
d
r
1
Li sut
cn bng
2/14/2011 33
2/14/2011
12
TI SAO NG TNG CU DC XUNG?
Mc gi (price level) l mt trong nhng nhn t
quyt nh lng tin c yu cu.
Mt mc gi cao hn s tng lng tin c
yu cu bt c mc li sut no.
Cu tin cao hn s dn ti li sut cao hn.
S lng hng ha v dch d c yu cu s
gim xung.
Kt qu ca phn tch ny l mi lin h nghch
chiu gia mc gi v lng hng ha, dch v
c yu cu.
2/14/2011 34 Trn Mnh Kin
Th trng tin t v s dc xung ca ng tng cu Vi
du\Nhu cu tin - Zimbabwe.mht
Lng tin Lng cung c
c nh bi NHTW
0
Li sut
ng cu tin
ti mc gi P2, MD2
ng cu tin
Ti mc gi P1
MD1
Cung
tin
(a) Th trng tin t (b) ng tng cu
3. . . .
lm tng
li sut
cn bng
2. . .lm tng cu
v tin
Tng
sn lng
0
Mc
gi
ng
tng cu
P2
Y2 Y
P
4. . . . n lt n lm gim sn lng
hng ha v dch v c yu cu
1. Mt
s tng
ln trong
mc gi
. . .
r
r2
2/14/2011 35 Trn Mnh Kin
THAY I CUNG TIN
NHTW c th dch chuyn ng tng cu khi
n thay i chnh sch tin t.
Mt s tng ln trong cung tin s lm dch
chuyn ng cung tin sang phi.
Nu khng c s thay i trong ng cu tin,
li sut s gim xung.
Li sut gim lm tng s lng hng ha v
dch v c yu cu.
2/14/2011 36 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
13
Tng cung tin Vi du\FED mua tri phiu.mht Vi du\FED mua tri phiu 2.mhtVi du\ECB-tri phiu.mht Vi du\Tri phiu-tht
bi.mht Vi du\Ti kha v tin t 2.mht Vi du\H tr li sut.mht Vi du\By thanh khon.mht Vi du\Kch cu khng ging ai.mht Vi du\kch thch tiu dng
kiu chu .mht
MS2 MS1
AD1
Y2 Y1
P
Cu tin
mc gi P
AD2
Lng tin 0
Li sut
r
r2
(a) Th trng tin t (b) ng tng cu
Tng
sn lng
0
Mc
gi
3. . . iu ny n lt n li lm tng s lng
hng ha v dch v c yu cu mi mc gi
2. . .li sut
cn bng
gim
1. Khi NHTW
tng cung tin
2/14/2011 37 Trn Mnh Kin
THAY I CUNG TIN
Khi NHTW tng cung tin, n lm h thp li
sut v tng lng hng ha v dch v c
yu cu bt c mc gi no, lm dch chuyn
ng tng cu sang phi.
Khi NHTW ct gim cung tin, n lm tng li
sut v gim lng hng ha v dch v c
yu cu bt k mc gi no v lm ng
tng cu dch sang tri.
tr ca chnh sch tin t ( tr trong v tr
ngoi)
2/14/2011 38 Trn Mnh Kin
VAI TR CA MC TIU LI SUT
Chnh sch tin t c th c m t thng qua
cung tin hoc li sut.
Thay i trong chnh sch tin t c th c
nhn hoc nh thay i mc tiu li sut hoc
thay i mc cung tin.
Mc tiu ca NHTW l tc ng vo im cn
bng trn th trng tin t, qua tc ng vo
tng cu.
2/14/2011 39 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
14
TM TT
Thut ng tin c s dng ch nhng ti
sn m con ngi thng dng mua hng
ha v dch v.
Tin c 3 chc nng trong nn kinh t: phng
tin trao i, n v hch ton v phng tin
ct gi gi tr.
Tin hng ha l tin bn thn n c gi tr.
Tin php nh l tin khng c gi tr c hu.
2/14/2011 40 Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
Ngn hng trung ng cc nc l ngi
iu khin h thng tin t.
N kim sot mc cung tin thng qua cc
nghip v th trng m, hoc bi thay i t l
d tr bt buc hoc li sut ti chit khu.
2/14/2011 41 Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
Khi cc ngn hng cho vay tin, h lm tng
cung tin ca nn kinh t.
Bi v NHTW khng th kim sot s lng tin
m cc ngn hng la chn cho khch hng vay
hoc s tin cc h gia nh gi tit kim nn
vic kim sot cung tin ca NHTW l khng
hon ho.
2/14/2011 42 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
15
TM TT
Keynes a ra l thuyt v s a thch thanh
khon gii thch vai tr quyt nh ca li
sut.
Theo l thuyt ny, li sut s iu chnh cn
bng cung v cu tin t.
2/14/2011 43 Trn Mnh Kin
Mt s tng ln trong mc gi lm tng cu v
tin v lm tng li sut.
Li sut cao hn s lm gim u t, qua
lm gim lng hng ha v dch v c yu
cu.
ng tng cu dc xung gii thch mi lin h
nghch chiu gia mc gi v lng cu v
hng ha v dch v.
2/14/2011 44 Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
Cc nh lm chnh sch c th tc ng ti tng
cu thng qua chnh sch tin t.
Mt s tng ln trong cung tin cui cng cng
lm ng tng cu dch chuyn v bn phi.
Mt s gim xung trong cung tin cui cng
cng lm ng tng cu dch chuyn sang tri.
2/14/2011 45 Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
2/14/2011
1
CHNG 6
LM PHT V THT NGHIP
NH NGHA LM PHT
Lm pht (Inflation): l s tng ln trong mc gi
chung ca hng ha v dch v
Gim pht (Deflation): l s gim xung trong mc
gi chung ca hng ha v dch v (ch s gi nh
hn 0 chng hn: -1% hoc -2%)
Thiu pht (Disinflation): l s gim xung ca t l
lm pht. V d, lm pht tnh theo nm ca thng 1
l 5%, thng 2 l 4% th tc tng gi gim xung
nhng gi vn ang tng. (lu l cch dch thut ng thiu
pht v gim pht Vit Nam khng thng nht)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 2
CC CH S O LNG LM PHT
Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)
Ch s gim pht GDP (GDP Deflator)
Ch s gi bn bun WPI (Wholesale Price
Index)
Ch s gi sn xut PPI (Producer Price
Index)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 3
2/14/2011
2
PHN LOI LM PHT
Da vo nh lng
- Lm pht va phi (Moderate Inflation): Lm
pht di 2 ch s
- Lm pht phi m (Galopping Inflation): Lm
pht t 2-3 ch s
- Siu lm pht (Hyperinflation): trn 3 ch s
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 4
PHN LOI LM PHT
Da vo nh tnh
- Lm pht thun ty: gi hng ha sn xut v
hng tiu dng tng cng t l trong mt n v
thi gian
- Lm pht cn bng v khng cn bng: lm
pht tng cng t l vi mc thu nhp
- Lm pht d on trc c v lm pht
bt thng
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 5
NGUYN NHN CA LM PHT
C th chia ra 3 loi nguyn nhn chnh:
1. Lm pht do cu ko (Demand Pull Inflation)
2. Lm pht do chi ph y (Cost Push
Inflation)
3. Lm pht do qun tnh (Inertia Inflation)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 6
2/14/2011
3
AD
2
AD
1
NGUYN NHN CA LM PHT
1. Lm pht do cu
ko
Lm pht cu ko
din ra khi tng cu
tng nhanh hn tim
nng sn xut ca mt
quc gia, iu ny ko
theo gi c tng ln
lm cn bng tng
cung v tng cu. vi du\Tang
cung tien-gdp.mht vi du\Chu quan or khach quan.pdf vi
du\Tn dng ni a v p lc lm pht.mht
P
1
P
Y Y
p
AS
P
2
7
AD
1
NGUYN NHN CA LM PHT
2. Lm pht do chi
ph y
Lm pht do chi ph
y xy ra khi c cc
c sc cung bt li, v
d nh gi c cc yu
t u vo nh xng,
du, nguyn liu,
nhin liu tng. vi
du\nguyn nhn lm pht.mht
.
Trn Mnh Kin
P
Y
Y
p
AS
1
P
1
AS
2
P
2
2/14/2011 8
NGUYN NHN CA LM PHT
3. Lm pht do qun
tnh
T l lm pht d kin
c a vo trong hp
ng v nhng tha thun
khng chnh thc c gi
l t l lm pht qun
tnh
N thng xy ra trong
cc nn kinh t cng
nghip, ni lm pht c
tnh cao, tc l n s gi
nguyn t l cho ti khi no
xy ra cc s kin kinh t
lm n thay i.
Trn Mnh Kin
P
Y
Y
p
AS
1
AS
2
AD
3
P
2
P
1 AD
2
AD
1
AS
3
P
3
2/14/2011 9
2/14/2011
4
L THUYT C IN V LM PHT
L thuyt s lng tin t (Quantity Theory of
Money) c s dng gii thch nhng
yu t quyt nh mc gi v lm pht trong
di hn.
Lm pht l mt hin tng trong nn kinh t
lin quan ti gi tr trao i ca ng tin
trong nn kinh t.
Khi mc gi chung tng ln, gi tr ca ng
tin gim xung.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 10
CUNG TIN, CU TIN V CN BNG
TIN T
Cung tin l mt bin chnh sch c kim
sot bi NHTW.
Thng qua cc cng c nh th trng m,
NHTW trc tip kim sot s lng tin t c
cung ng.
- C nhiu yu t quyt nh cu v tin, bao
gm li sut v mc gi chung ca nn kinh t.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 11
CUNG TIN, CU TIN V CN BNG
TIN T
Mi ngi gi tin bi v tin l phng tin
dng trao i.
Lng tin m mi ngi gi ph thuc vo mc
gi ca hng ha v dch v.
Trong di hn, mc gi chung iu chnh ti
mc lm cho cu tin bng cung tin.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 12
2/14/2011
5
Cung tin, cu tin v mc gi cn bng
Lng tin
Gi tr
ca tin (1/P)
Mc gi, P
Lng tin
c n nh bi NHTW
Cung tin
0
1
(Thp)
(Cao)
(Cao)
(Thp)
1
/2
1
/4
3
/4
1
1.33
2
4
Gi tr
cn bng
ca tin
Mc gi
cn bng
Cu
tin
A
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 13
Tc ng ca vic bm thm tin
Lng tin
Gi tr
ca tin, 1/P
Mc gi, P
Cu
tin
0
1
(Thp)
(Cao)
(Cao)
(Thp
1
/2
1
/4
3
/4
1
1.33
2
4
M
1
MS
1
M
2
MS
2
2. . . . lm gim
gi tr ca tin
3. . . . v
lm tng
mc gi
1. Mt s tng
ln trong
cung tin .
A
B
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 14
L THUYT C IN V LM PHT
L thuyt s lng tin t
L thuyt s lng tin t gii thch cch thc m
mc gi c quyt nh v ti sao n thay i
theo thi gian.
Lng tin sn c trong nn kinh t quyt nh gi tr
ca tin.
Nguyn nhn u tin ca lm pht l do s tng
trng ca s lng tin t.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 15
2/14/2011
6
S PHN I C IN V TNH
TRUNG LP CA TIN T
Cc bin danh ngha (Nominal variables) l
nhng bin c o lng bng n v tin
t.
Cc bin thc t (Real variables) l cc bin
c o lng bng n v hin vt.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 16
S PHN I C IN V TNH
TRUNG LP CA TIN T
Theo Hume v nhng ngi khc, cc bin
kinh t thc khng thay i theo s thay i
ca cung tin.
Theo s phn i c in (classical dichotomy),
s thay i tin t tc ng khc nhau ti cc
bin thc v bin danh ngha.
S thay i trong cung tin tc ng ti cc
bin danh ngha ch khng ti cc bin
thc.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 17
S PHN I C IN V TNH
TRUNG LP CA TIN T
Vic nhng thay i tin t khng tc ng
ti cc bin thc c gi l s trung lp
ca tin t (monetary neutrality).
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 18
2/14/2011
7
TC LU THNG V PHNG
TRNH S LNG
Tc lu thng ca tin t (Velocity of
money) dng ch tc di chuyn ca
mt ng trong nn kinh t t ti ngi ny
ti ti ngi khc.
V = (P Y)/M
Vi: V = tc
P = Mc gi
Y = Sn lng
M = Lng tin
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 19
TC LU THNG V PHNG
TRNH S LNG
Vit li phng trnh trn thnh phng trnh
s lng:
M V = P Y
Phng trnh s lng (Quantity equation)
ch ra mi lin h gia s lng tin t (M) v
gi tr tng sn lng danh ngha (P Y)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 20
TC LU THNG V PHNG
TRNH S LNG
Phng trnh s lng cho thy mt s tng
ln ca lng tin trong nn kinh t nht
nh s c phn nh vo mt trong ba
bin s:
Mc gi phi tng ln,
Sn lng phi tng ln, hoc
Tc lu thng tin t phi gim.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 21
2/14/2011
8
GDP danh ngha, lng tin v tc lu thng tin
t M
Indexes
(1960 = 100)
2,000
1,000
500
0
1,500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Nominal GDP
Velocity
M2
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 22
TC LU THNG V PHNG
TRNH S LNG
Mc gi cn bng, T l lm pht v L thuyt
s lng tin t
Tc lu thng tin t tng i n nh qua
thi gian.
Khi NHTW thay i s lng tin t, n lm tng
mt t l tng ng trong gi tr sn lng danh
ngha (P Y).
Bi v tin t l trung lp, tin t khng tc ng
vo sn lng.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 23
Tin t v mc gi trong 4 cuc siu lm pht
(a) Austria (b) Hungary
Cung tin
Mc gi
Index
(Jan. 1921 = 100)
Index
(July 1921 = 100)
Mc gi
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
1925 1924 1923 1922 1921
Cung tin
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
1925 1924 1923 1922 1921
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 24
2/14/2011
9
Tin t v mc gi trong 4 cuc siu lm pht
(c) Germany
1
Index
(Jan. 1921 = 100)
(d) Poland
100,000,000,000,000
1,000,000
10,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
100,000,000
10,000
100
Cung tin
Mc gi
1925 1924 1923 1922 1921
Mc gi
Cung tin
Index
(Jan. 1921 = 100)
100
10,000,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000
1,000
1925 1924 1923 1922 1921
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 25
Tng trng tin t v lm pht Vit
Nam, 1980-87
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
To c o ta ng kho i l ng tie n La m pha t
26
Quan h gia tng trng tin t v
lm pht mt s quc gia
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 27
2/14/2011
10
QUAN H GIA TIN T V LM
PHT
MV = PY
log (MV) = log (PY)
log M + log V = log P + log Y
% thay i ca M + % thay i ca V = % thay i
ca P + % thay i ca Y
- Trong di hn tc tng trng tin t ch tc ng
ti mc gi
- Lm pht bt c u v bt c thi im no cng
l hin tng tin t
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 28
THU LM PHT
Khi chnh ph mun tng thu nhp bng vic
in tin, ngi ta ni h nh thu lm pht
(inflation tax).
Thu lm pht ging nh mt loi thu nh
vo mi ngi gi tin.
Lm pht s chm dt nu chnh ph tin
hnh ci cch ti chnh nh ct gim chi tiu.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 29
HIU NG FISHER
Hiu ng Fisher (Fisher effect) dng ch
mi quan h cht ch gia li sut danh
ngha v t l lm pht.
Theo hiu ng Fisher, khi t l lm pht tng,
li sut danh ngha cng s tng cng t l.
Li sut thc s vn gi nguyn.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 30
2/14/2011
11
Li sut danh ngha v t l lm pht vi du\li sut-CPI gim.mht
%/nm
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
3
6
9
12
15
Lm pht
Li sut danh ngha
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 31
TC NG CA LM PHT TI TNG
TRNG KINH T
Tc ng ca lm pht ti tng trng kh
phc tp. Lm pht c tc ng dng ti tng
trng khi mc khong 10%/nm, tc ng
ny tr nn hi m khi trong khong 10 -
15%/nm. Khi lm pht vt mc 15% nm th
quan h gia t l lm pht v tng trng l
m.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 32
TC NG CA LM PHT TI PHN
PHI THU NHP
Nu cc tng lp c thu nhp cao nm cc
ti sn c ch s ha nh ngoi t phn
nhiu trong khi tng lp c thu nhp thp nm
cc ti sn bng ng ni t th khi lm pht
xy ra s nng cao s bt bnh ng thm ch
vi c lm pht c d tnh trc. vi du\Lm Pht Ngho 2.mht vi
du\Hon sinh con v lm pht.mht vi du\lam phat-ngheo.mht vi du\doi pho voi lam phat.mht vi du\loi dung tang gia.mht vi du\ngan
hang kiem loi.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 33
2/14/2011
12
CI GI CA LM PHT
Chi ph mn giy (Shoeleather costs)
Chi ph thc n (Menu costs)
S bin ng ca gi tng i v phn b sai
ngun lc (Relative price variability)
S bin dng ca thu (Tax distortions)
Nhm ln v bt tin (Confusion and
inconvenience)
Ti phn phi ca ci mt cch ty tin
(Arbitrary redistribution of wealth)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 34
CHI PH MN GIY
Chi ph mn giy (Shoeleather costs) l chi
ph b ra gim lng tin nm gi.
Lm pht lm gim gi tr thc ca tin nn
mi ngi c ng c ti thiu ha lng
tin mt h gi.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 35
CHI PH MN GIY
gim bt lng tin mt mnh c th i hi mi
ngi phi thng xuyn ti ngn hng rt tin
t ti khon.
Chi ph thc s ca vic gim nm gi tin mt l
thi gian v s tin li m bn phi hi sinh gim
bt s lng tin mt ang nm gi.
Thm vo , vic phi thng xuyn ti ngn hng
hn cng lm hi sinh thi gian lm nhng cng
vic c nng sut cao hn. vi du\X s ca nhng t ph.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 36
2/14/2011
13
CHI PH THC N
Chi ph thc n (Menu costs) l chi ph ca vic
iu chnh gi c.
Trong thi k lm pht, iu cn thit l phi cp
nht thng xuyn bng bo gi v tn cc chi ph
nh:
Chi ph gi cc ti liu mi cho khch hng.
Chi ph qung co gi mi.
Chi ph gii thch gi mi vi khch hng
y l qu trnh lm lng ph ngun lc khi nhng
cng vic c li ch cao hn. vi du\Nh bng 'mt nhoi'.mht vi du\Cc vn ti.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 37
BIN NG GI TNG I V PHN B
SAI CC NGUN LC
Lm pht lm bin dng gi tng i.
Lm pht gi ca cc hng ho thay i khc
nhau gi tng i ca chng thay i
quyt nh ca khch hng b bin dng v th
trng mt kh nng phn b ngun lc mt
cch hiu qu.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 38
LM BIN DNG THU
Lm pht lm gia tng qui m li vn v lm
tng gnh nng thu trn loi thu nhp ny.
Vi loi thu ly tin (progressive taxation),
thu nhp t vn (capital gains) s b nh
thu nng hn.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 39
2/14/2011
14
LM BIN DNG THU
Thu thu nhp coi thu nhp t li sut danh
ngha tit kim nh thu nhp, mc d mt
phn ca li sut danh ngha ny ch n
gin l b cho lm pht.
Li sut thc sau thu (after-tax real interest
rate) gim lm tit kim tr nn t hp dn
hn.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 40
LM BIN DNG THU
Nm 1980, mua 1 c phiu: $10.
Nm 2000, bn li vi gi: $50.
S b nh thu trn s tin li: $40.
Gi s trong 20 nm ny, mc lm pht tng
gp i. $10 (1980) tng ng $20 (2000)
s tin li thc s l $30 lut thu
khng tnh n lm pht thi phng mc
li tng gnh nng thu.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 41
Tc hi ca lm pht
Lm pht cao gim ng c tit kim gim u t
Nn kinh t 1
(gi n nh)
Nn kinh t 2
(lm pht)
Li sut thc t
T l lm pht
Li sut danh ngha
Thu sut (25%)
Li sut danh ngha sau thu
Li sut thc t sau thu
4%
0%
4%
1%
3%
3%
4%
8%
12%
3%
9%
1%
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 42
2/14/2011
15
NHM LN V BT TIN
Khi NHTW tng cung tin v to ra lm pht,
n lm bin dng gi tr thc ca n v tnh
ton.
Lm pht lm cho ng tin c gi tr thc
khc nhau ti cc thi im khc nhau.
Do , khi c lm pht, vic so snh doanh
thu, chi ph v li nhun thc tr nn kh
khn hn theo thi gian. vi du\Zimbabwe ngp trong tin.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 43
TC HI C BIT CA LM PHT KHNG D
KIN: TI PHN PHI CA CI MT CCH TY TIN
Lm pht khng d kin (Unexpected
inflation) phn phi ca ci gia nhng
thnh vin ca x hi khng da theo cng
lao v nhu cu ca h.
S phn phi ny xy ra bi v nhiu khon
vay trong nn kinh t c tnh bng n v
tnh ton l tin.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 44
CC BIN PHP CHNG LM PHT
1. Chnh sch tin t
2. Chnh sch ti chnh
3. Chnh sch t gi hi oi
4. Qun l gi c
5. Tng cung hng ha vi du\NQ chong lam phat.mht vi du\lam phat-lang phi.mht
vi du\Thi Lan mu thun.mht vi du\h ni-lm pht.mht vi du\thnh ph HCM-lm pht.mht vi du\Trn nh thin-lm pht.mht
vi du\5 c trng ca lm pht.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 45
2/14/2011
16
O LNG THT NGHIP
Tht nghip (Unemployment) l nhng ngi
trong lc lng lao ng c kh nng lao ng
nhng khng c vic lm v ang tm vic lm. vi
du\nh ngha tht nghip.mht vi du\gi ca tht nghip.doc
C quan thng k thng chia ngi trng
thnh ra thnh 3 nhm:
C vic lm (Employed)
Tht nghip (Unemployed)
Khng nm trong lc lng lao ng (Not in the
labor force)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 46
O LNG THT NGHIP
Lc lng lao ng
Lc lng lao ng l ton b ngi lm
vic, bao gm c nhng ngi c vic v
tht nghip.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 47
O LNG THT NGHIP
Mt ngi c coi l c vic lm nu anh
(hoc ch) ta s dng hu ht thi gian trong
nhng tun trc lm cng vic c tr
lng.
Mt ngi c coi l tht nghip nu anh
(hoc ch) ta ang khng c vic tm thi, ang
tm vic hoc ang i ngy bt u mt
cng vic mi.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 48
2/14/2011
17
O LNG THT NGHIP
Mt ngi khng thuc loi no nh trn, nh l sinh
vin ton thi gian, lm vic nh hoc v hu s khng
c xp vo trong lc lng lao ng. vi du\Ph n ngh hu tui 60.mht vi
du\Php-ngh hu.mht
Dn s
Trong tui
lao ng
Lc lng
lao ng
C vic
Tht nghip
Ngoi lc lng
lao ng
Ngoi tui
lao ng
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 49
O LNG THT NGHIP
Tht nghip c o bng t l tht nghip (l t l % s
ngi tht nghip trong lc lng lao ng). khu vc
nng thn, c bit vi cc nc ang pht trin, ch s t
l tht nghip t c ngha nn ngi ta thng s dng
ch s t l thi gian lao ng c s dng
T l tht nghip =
S ngi tht nghip
100%
Lc lng lao ng
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 50
THT NGHIP V
O LNG THT NGHIP vi du\1,7 triu vic lm mi.mht vi du\Thc s bn tht.mht
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
%
T l tht nghip thnh th Vit Nam,
1996-2004
T l TN 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.3 6 5.8 5.6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
T l thi gian lao ng c s dng,
1996-2004
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
%
Thi gian L 71.1 73.6 74.2 74.3 75.3 77.7 79.3
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 51
2/14/2011
18
THT NGHIP V
O LNG THT NGHIP vi du\lexus va cay olive.mht vi du\That nghiep anh.mht vi
du\Lm vic 35 gi Php.mht vi du\Nht bn trng.mht
Tht nghip mt s quc gia pht trin, 1972-2004 (%)
1972 1982 1992 2004
Anh 4 11 10 5
Ailen 8 14 15 5
Italia 6 8 9 9
Php 3 10 10 10
EU 3 9 9 9
M 5 10 8 5
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 52
PHN LOI THT NGHIP
Tht nghip thng c chia thnh 2 loi,
Tht nghip trong di hn v tht nghip
trong ngn hn:
Tht nghip di hn hay cn c gi l tht
nghip t nhin (Natural Unemployment)
Tht nghip ngn hn hay tht nghip chu k
(Cyclical Unemployment)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 53
XC NH THT NGHIP
T l tht nghip t nhin
T l tht nghip t nhin (Natural rate of
Unemployment) l t l tht nghip khng
bin mt ngay c trong di hn.
y l mc tht nghip bnh thng m
nn kinh t phi chu.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 54
2/14/2011
19
XC NH THT NGHIP
Tht nghip chu k
Tht nghip chu k dng ch mc bin
ng t nm ny qua nm khc ca tht
nghip xung quanh t l tht nghip t
nhin.
N gn vi s ln xung ca chu k kinh
doanh (business cycle).
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 55
T l tht nghip M
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 56
XC NH THT NGHIP
M t tht nghip
3 cu hi cn bn:
Chnh ph o lng t l tht nghip ca nn
kinh t nh th no?
Vn no s ny sinh khi gii thch cc s
liu v tht nghip?
Thi gian khng c vic lm ca mt ngi
tht nghip in hnh l bao nhiu lu?
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 57
2/14/2011
20
LIU VIC O LNG THT NGHIP C
CHNH XC?
Rt kh khn phn bit mt ngi ang tht
nghip v mt ngi khng trong lc lng lao
ng.
Nhng cng nhn bt mn (Discouraged workers), l
nhng ngi mun lm vic nhng t b vic i
tm vic sau khi khng thnh cng khi tm kim vic
lm, khng th hin trong thng k tht nghip. vi du\Nhiu
thanh nin chn tm vic.mht
Mt s ngi khc c th khai bo ang tht nghip
nhn tr cp trong khi thm ch h khng tm vic.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 58
LIU VIC O LNG THT NGHIP
C CHNH XC?
Hu ht tht nghip l ngn hn.
Hu ht tht nghip c quan st ti mt
thi im bt k no l di hn.
Hu ht vn tht nghip ca nn kinh t
gn vi mt s tng i t cc cng nhn
khng c vic lm trong thi gian di.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 59
TI SAO MT S NGI LUN THT
NGHIP
Trong mt th trng lao ng l tng, mc
lng lun iu chnh cn bng cung v
cu lao ng v mi cng nhn u c vic
lm.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 60
2/14/2011
21
TI SAO MT S NGI LUN THT
NGHIP
Tht nghip tm thi (Frictional unemployment)
ch tht nghip do ngi cng nhn cn c
thi gian tm cng vic ph hp nht vi kh
nng v s thch ca h.
Tht nghip c cu (Structural unemployment) l
tht nghip do s lng cng vic trong mt s
th trng lao ng no khng cho mi
ngi u c vic lm.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 61
TM VIC
Tm vic (Job search )
Qu trnh m trong ngi cng nhn tm kim
mt cng vic thch hp vi kh nng v s thch
ca h.
Kt qu t vic rng cn phi c thi gian mt
ngi c k nng c th tm c cng vic ph
hp.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 62
TM VIC
Loi tht nghip ny khc bit vi cc loi
tht nghip khc.
N khng phi do lng cao hn mc cn bng.
N xy ra l bi thi gian cn thit tm kim
cng vic ph hp (right job). vi du\Li ngh u tin.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 63
2/14/2011
22
TI SAO MT S THT NGHIP TM THI
L KHNG TH TRNH KHI?
Tht nghip tm thi do tm vic l khng th
trnh khi do nn kinh t lun thay i.
Nhng s thay i trong c cu nhu cu
gia cc ngnh v vng c gi s dch
chuyn khu vc (sectoral shifts).
Cn c thi gian cng nhn c th tm
kim vic lm trong nhng khu vc mi.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 64
CHNH SCH CNG V TM VIC LM
Cc chng trnh ca chnh ph c th tc
ng ti thi gian nhng ngi tht
nghip tm c vic lm mi.
Nhng chng trnh ny bao gm:
Cc vn phng gii thiu vic lm ca chnh ph
Chng trnh o to ca chnh ph
Bo him tht nghip
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 65
Cc vn phng gii thiu vic lm ca chnh ph
cung cp thng tin v cc c hi vic lm
gip cng nhn v cng vic n vi nhau
nhanh hn.
Cc chng trnh o to ca chnh ph c mc
ch to thun li cho qu trnh chuyn i ca
cng nhn t cc ngnh ang suy gim sang
nhng ngnh ang tng trng v gip cc
nhm dn c b thit thi thot khi ngho i vi
du\That nghiep-hoc nghe.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 66
2/14/2011
23
Bo him tht nghip (Unemployment
insurance) l cc chng trnh ca chnh
ph bo v mt phn thu nhp ca cng
nhn khi h tht nghip.
Cung cp s bo v mt phn cho cng nhn
chng li s mt vic.
Cung cp mt phn ca khon lng trc
trong mt khong thi gian gii hn cho nhng
ngi b mt vic.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 67
Bo him tht nghip lm tng lng tht
nghip tm thi.
N lm gim n lc tm vic ca ngi tht
nghip.
N c th lm tng c hi ca nhng ngi
cng nhn tm c vic lm thch hp.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 68
Tht nghip cu trc xy ra khi lng cung
lao ng vt qu lng cu lao ng.
Tht nghip cu trc thng c dng
gii thch cho tht nghip di hn.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 69
2/14/2011
24
Ti sao li c tht nghip cu trc?
Lut tin lng ti thiu (Minimum-wage
laws)
Cng on (Unions)
Tin lng hiu qu (Efficiency wages)
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 70
LUT TIN LNG TI THIU
Khi lng ti thiu c n nh mc cao
hn mc cn bng, n s to ra tht nghip.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 71
Tht nghip do lng ti thiu qu cao vi du\Lng ti thiu
thp.mht vi du\Mt li th lao ng gi r.mht
S lng lao ng 0
Thng d lao ng =
Tht nghip
Cung
lao ng
Cu
lao ng
Lng
Lng
ti thiu
L
D
L
S
W
E
L
E
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 72
2/14/2011
25
CNG ON V THNG LNG
TP TH
Cng on (Union) l mt t chc ca
nhng ngi lao ng m phn vi gii
ch v mc lng v iu kin lm vic.
Vo nhng nm 40s v 50 ca th k 20, khi
cc cng on ang thnh nht, khong 1/3
lc lng lao ng M trong cng on.
Mt cng on l mt dng cartel, c gng
thi hnh sc mnh th trng ca mnh.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 73
CNG ON V THNG LNG
TP TH
Qu trnh m qua , cng on v doanh
nghip ng v cc iu khon lm vic c
gi l thng lng tp th (collective
bargaining).
Mt cuc nh cng (strike) s c t chc nu
cng on v doanh nghip khng t n c
tha thun.
Mt cuc nh cng l vic mt t chc cng
on rt ngi lao ng khi doanh nghip. vi du\dinh
cong-dai loan.mht vi du\nh cng-v sinh.mht vi du\thng lng hn i u.mht vi du\dinh cong-mam tom.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 74
CNG ON V THNG LNG
TP TH
nh cng s lm mt s cng nhn c
thm li ch v mt s cng nhn b thit i.
Nhng cng nhn trong cng on (ngi
trong cuc - insiders) s thu c li ch t
thng lng tp th trong lc nhng cng
nhn bn ngoi cng on (ngi ngoi
cuc - outsiders) s phi chu mt s thit
hi.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 75
2/14/2011
26
CNG ON V THNG LNG
TP TH
Bng vic hnh ng nh mt cartel vi kh
nng nh cng hoc n nh nhng ci gi
cao khc cho ngi s dng lao ng, cng
on thng t c mc lng cao hn
mc cn bng (above-equilibrium wages)
cho cng on vin ca mnh.
Nhng cng nhn l on vin cng on
thng kim c mc lng cao hn t
10-20% nhng cng nhn ngoi cng on.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 76
CNG ON TT HAY XU CHO NN
KINH T?
Nhng ngi ph phn cho rng cng on
l nguyn nhn ca vic phn b lao ng
thiu hiu qu v khng cng bng.
Mc lng trn mc cnh tranh s lm gim
cu lao ng v to ra tht nghip.
Mt s cng nhn s c li t thit hi ca
nhng cng nhn khc. vi du\Cng on-GM.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 77
CNG ON TT HAY XU CHO NN
KINH T?
Nhng ngi ng h cng on li cho rng
cng on l cn thit chng li quyn
lc th trng ca cc doanh nghip trong
vic thu mn cng nhn.
H cho rng cng on rt quan trng
gip cc doanh nghip p li mt cch
hiu qu mi quan tm ca cng nhn. vi du\Cong
doan-dinh cong.mht vi du\Cong doan-dinh cong 2.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 78
2/14/2011
27
L THUYT V TIN LNG HIU QU
Mc lng hiu qu (Efficiency wages) l
mc lng trn mc cn bng (above-
equilibrium) c tr bi doanh nghip
lm tng nng sut lao ng ca cng nhn.
L thuyt v tin lng hiu qu cho rng
doanh nghip s vn hnh hiu qu hn nu
lng trn mc cn bng.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 79
L THUYT V TIN LNG HIU
QU
Mt doanh nghip thch mt mc lng cao
hn mc lng cn bng v nhng l do sau:
Sc khe ca cng nhn (Worker Health): nhng
cng nhn c tr lng cao hn s c ba n
tt hn v do nng sut cao hn.
Tc thay th cng nhn (Worker Turnover):
Mt cng nhn c tr lng cao hn s t c
mun i tm cng vic khc.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 80
L THUYT V TIN LNG HIU
QU
Mt doanh nghip thch mt mc lng cao
hn mc lng cn bng v nhng l do sau:
N lc ca cng nhn (Worker Effort): Cng nhn
c lng cao hn s khuyn khch cng nhn n
lc hn.
Cht lng cng nhn (Worker Quality): Mc
lng cao hn s thu ht nhng cng nhn c
cht lng cao hn np n xin vic. vi du\GS ng Phong ni
chuyn.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 81
2/14/2011
28
CC BIN PHP GIM THT NGHIP
i vi tht nghip t nhin (Tht nghip tm thi,
tht nghip c cu)
- Tng cng cng tc o to & o to li tay ngh
cho ngi lao ng h p ng c nhu cu
ca nn kinh t tng thi k;
- Gip hc sinh mi tt nghip c c tay ngh
v kinh nghim ban u;
- y mnh cng tc thng tin & t vn vic lm;
- To iu kin thun li cho lao ng di chuyn gia
cc vng;
- Gim tr cp tht nghip.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 82
CC BIN PHP GIM THT NGHIP
i vi tht nghip chu k: Khi nn kinh t ang
suy thoi, tng cu thp sn lng v cng n vic
lm thp Chnh ph cn c cc bin php tng tng
cu (AD) tng sn lng (Y) & vic lm
Cc bin php m rng ti chnh, tin t: Gim thu,
tng chi tiu chnh ph, tng mc cung tin, h li sut
tng tng cu (AD) Tng sn lng (Y) & vic
lm
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 83
TM TT
T l tht nghip l phn trm nhng ngi
mun c vic nhng khng tm c vic.
T l tht nghip l mt thc o khng hon
ho cho s khng c vic.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 84
2/14/2011
29
TM TT
Mt l do cho tht nghip l thi gian cn thit
cng nhn c th tm kim vic lm ph hp
nht vi kh nng v s thch ca h.
Mt l do na khin nn kinh t lun c tht
nghip l lut tin lng ti thiu.
Lut tin lng ti thiu lm tng s lng lao
ng c cung cp v gim lng lao ng
c yu cu.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 85
TM TT
L do th ba cho tht nghip l quyn lc th
trng ca cc cng on.
L do th t cho tht nghip l do tin lng
ti thiu.
Lng cao c th ci thin sc khe cng
nhn, lm gim s lng cng nhn b vic,
tng n lc lm vic v tng cht lng lm
vic.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 86
THT NGHIP V LM PHT
T l tht nghip t nhin (The natural rate of
unemployment) ph thuc vo nhiu yu t
khc nhau ca th trng lao ng.
V d nh lut lng ti thiu, sc mnh th
trng ca cng on v hiu qu ca vic
tm vic.
T l lm pht ph thuc ch yu vo tng
trng ca khi lng tin, c kim sot
bi NHTW.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 87
2/14/2011
30
X hi i mt vi s nh i trong ngn
hn gia lm pht v tht nghip.
Nu cc nh lm chnh sch m rng tng
cu, h c th gim bt tht nghip,nhng
vi ci gi l lm pht cao hn.
Nu h thu hp tng cu, h c th gim bt
lm pht nhng ci gi phi tr l tht nghip
tm thi s tng ln.
THT NGHIP V LM PHT
88
NG PHILLIPS
ng Phillips (Phillips curve) m t mi lin
h ngn hn gia lm pht v tht nghip.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 89
ng Phillips
T l tht nghip
(%)
0
T l
lm pht
(%/nm)
ng Phillips
4
B
6
7
A
2
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 90
2/14/2011
31
TNG CU, TNG CUNG V NG
PHILLIPS
ng Phillips cho thy s kt hp ngn
hn gia lm pht v tht nghip khi ng
tng cu ngn hn dch chuyn dc theo
ng tng cung ngn hn.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 91
Tng cu v hng ha v dch v cng cao,
tng sn lng ca nn kinh t cng ln v
mc gi chung cng cao.
Mc sn lng cao hn dn ti mc tht
nghip thp hn.
TNG CU, TNG CUNG V NG
PHILLIPS
92
Cch thc ng Phillips lin kt tng cu v tng
cung
Tng sn lng 0
ng tng cung
ngn hn
(a) M hnh tng cu v tng cung
T l tht nghip 0
Lm pht Mc
gi
(b) ng Phillips
ng Phillips
Tng cu thp
Tng cu cao
(sn lng
l 8.000)
B
4
6
(sn lng
l 7.500)
A
7
2
8,000
(Tht nghip
l 4%)
106 B
(Tht nghip
l 7%)
7,500
102 A
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 93
2/14/2011
32
S DCH CHUYN CA NG
PHILLIPS: VAI TR CA K VNG
ng Phillips c v a ra cho cc nh
lm chnh sch mt thc n la chn
gia cc kt qu lm pht v tht nghip kh
d.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 94
NG PHILLIPS DI HN
Vo nhng nm 60, Friedman v Phelps kt
lun rng lm pht v tht nghip khng c
lin h trong di hn.
Do , ng Phillips di hn nm thng ng ti
t l tht nghip t nhin.
Chnh sch tin t c th c hiu qu trong ngn
hn nhng trong di hn th khng.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 95
ng Phillips di hn
T l tht nghip 0 T l tht nghip
t nhin
T l
lm pht ng Phillips
di hn
B
Lm pht
cao
Lm pht
thp
A
2. . . . nhng tht nghip
vn mc t nhin
trong di hn
1. Khi NHNW
tng cung tin,
lm pht
tng ln
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 96
2/14/2011
33
Cch ng Phillips lin h gia tng cung v tng
cu
Tng sn lng Mc sn lng
t nhin
T l tht nghip
t nhin
0
Mc
gi
P
Tng cu, AD1
ng tng cung di hn ng Phillips di hn
(a) M hnh tng cu v tng cung
T l tht nghip 0
T l
lm pht
(b) ng Phillips
2. . . . lm
mc gi
tng ln
1. S tng ln trong
cung tin lm tng
tng cu.
A
AD2
B
A
4. . . . Nhng lm sn lng v tht nghip
ri khi mc t nhin ca chng
3. . . .v lm tng
t l lm pht ...
P2
B
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 97
K VNG V NG PHILLIPS DI
HN
Lm pht d kin (expected inflation) phn
nh qui m thay i ca mc gi chung m
mi ngi d kin.
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 98
Trong di hn, lm pht d kin iu chnh
theo s thay i trong t l lm pht thc t
(actual inflation).
Kh nng ca NHTW trong vic to ra lm
pht khng d kin (unexpected inflation) ch
tn ti trong ngn hn.
Khi mi ngi d kin t l lm pht, cch duy
nht a tht nghip v di mc t nhin l
cho t l lm pht thc t cao hn t l lm pht
d kin.
K VNG V NG PHILLIPS DI
HN
99
2/14/2011
34
Phng trnh ny lin kt t l tht nghip vi
t l tht nghip t nhin, lm pht thc t v
lm pht d kin.
10
0
T l tht nghip =
T l
tht nghip
t nhin
- (lm pht thc t - lm pht d kin)
K VNG V NG PHILLIPS NGN
HN
Cch lm pht d kin lm dch chuyn ng
Phillips ngn hn
T l tht nghip 0
T l tht nghip t nhin
T l
lm pht
ng Phillips di hn
ng Phillips ngn hn
vi lm pht d kin cao
ng Phillips ngn hn
vi lm pht d kin thp
1. Chnh sch m rng lm
dch cuyn nn kinh t dc
ng Phillips ngn hn
2. . . . nhng trong di hn
lm pht d kin tng ln v
ng Phillips dch sang phi
C
B
A
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 101
THC NGHIM T NHIN CHO GI
THIT T L T NHIN
Quan im cho rng cui cng t l tht
nghip s tr v mc t nhin, bt k t l
lm pht c gi l gi thit t l t nhin
(natural-rate hypothesis).
Cc quan st lch s ng h gi thit ny.
10
2
2/14/2011
35
Quan nim v ng Phillips n nh b ph
v trong nhng nm thp k 70.
Trong nhng nm t 70-80, nn kinh t M
tri qua mt giai on lm pht v tht
nghip ng thi cng cao.
THC NGHIM T NHIN CHO GI
THIT T L T NHIN
10
3
ng Phillips trong nhng nm 1960s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0
2
4
6
8
10
T l tht nghip
T l lm pht
1968
1966
1961
1962
1963
1967
1965
1964
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 104
S sp ca ng Phillips
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0
2
4
6
8
10
T l tht nghip
T l lm pht
1973
1966
1972
1971
1961
1962
1963
1967
1968
1969
1970
1965
1964
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 105
2/14/2011
36
S DCH CHUYN CA NG PHILLIPS:
VAI TR CA CC C SC CUNG
Cc d liu lch s ch ra rng ngay c
ng Phillips ngn hn cng c th dch
chuyn do s thay i trong k vng v lm
pht.
10
6
ng Phillips ngn hn cng c th dch
chuyn do cc c sc ca tng cung.
Nhng s o ngc ln trong tng cung c th
lm ti t i s nh i trong ngn hn gia lm
pht v tht nghip.
Cc c sc bt li v cung (adverse supply
shock) gy cho cc nh lm chnh sch s nh
i t mong mun hn gia lm pht v tht
nghip.
10
7
Mt c sc v cung (supply shock) is l mt
s kin tc ng trc tip ti chi ph sn xut
ca doanh nghip v qua ti gi c ca
h.
iu ny lm dch chuyn ng tng cung
...
v qua l lm dch chuyn ng
Phillips.
10
8
2/14/2011
37
Mt c sc bt li ca tng cung
Sn lng 0
Mc gi
Tng cu
(a) M hnh v tng cung v tng cu
T l tht nghip 0
Lm pht
(b) ng Phillips
3. . . . v
lm tng
mc gi
AS2
Tng cung, AS1
A
1. Mt s dch
chuyn bt li
ca tng cung
4. . . .to cho cc nh lm
chnh sch s nh i
t a thch hn gia
tht nghip v lm pht
B P2
Y2
P
A
Y
ng Phillips, PC1
2. . . h thp sn lng. . .
PC2
B
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 109
Vo nhng nm 70, cc nh lm chnh sch
phi i mt vi 2 la chn khi OPEC ct
gim sn lng v tng gi du trn ton
cu:
Chin u vi tht nghip bng cch m rng
tng cu v lm tng lm pht.
Chin u vi lm pht bng cch ct gim tng
cu v chu ng tht nghip mc cao hn.
11
0
Cc c sc cung trong nhng nm 1970s M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0
2
4
6
8
10
T l tht nghip
T l lm pht
1972
1975
1981
1976
1978
1979
1980
1973
1974
1977
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 111
2/14/2011
38
CHI PH CA VIC CT GIM LM
PHT
gim lm pht, NHTW phi theo ui
chnh sch tin t tht cht.
Khi NHTW gim tc tng trng tin t,
n lm gim tng cu.
iu ny lm gim s lng hng ha v
dch v m doanh nghip sn xut.
V dn ti lm tng tht nghip.
11
2
Chnh sch tin t lm gim lm pht trong ngn hn
v di hn
T l tht nghip 0 T l tht nghip t nhin
Lm pht
ng
Phillips di hn
ng Phillips ngn hn
vi k vng cao v lm pht
ng Phillips ngn hn
vi k vng lm pht thp
1. Chnh sch tht cht lm
dch chuyn nn kinh t dc
ng Phillips ngn hn
2. . . . nhng trong di hn, t l
lm pht d kin gim v ng Phillips
ngn hn dch sang tri
B
C
A
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 113
gim lm pht, mt nn kinh t phi tri
qua mt thi k tht nghip cao v sn
lng thp.
Khi NHTW s dng chnh sch tin t chng lm
pht, nn kinh t s dch chuyn ng Phillips
ngn hn xung di.
Nn kinh t s c lm pht thp nhng vi ci gi
l tht nghip cao.
11
4
PHT
2/14/2011
39
T l hi sinh (sacrifice ratio) l % sn lng
hng nm mt i khi mun lm gim lm
pht 1%.
M, ngi ta c tnh t l hi sinh l 5.
gim lm pht t 10% trong giai on 1979-
1981 xung 4%, i hi phi hi sinh 30% sn
lng hng nm.
11
5
PHT
K VNG HP L V KH NNG CT
GIM LM PHT T TN CHI PH
L thuyt k vng hp l (theory of rational
expectations) cho rng mi ngi thng s
dng ti u mi thng tin h c, bao gm c
thng tin v chnh sch ca chnh ph khi d
on v tng lai.
11
6
Lm pht k vng gii thch ti sao c s
nh i gia lm pht v tht nghip trong
ngn hn ch khng phi trong di hn.
S nh i trong ngn hn c mt i nhanh
chng hay khng ph thuc vo mc iu
chnh nhanh chng ca k vng.
11
7
2/14/2011
40
L thuyt v k vng hp l cho rng t l hi
sinh c th nh hn c tnh.
11
8
CHNH SCH GIM LM PHT CA
VOLCKER
Khi Paul Volcker lm ch tch ca Fed trong
nhng nm 1970s, lm pht M c coi
nh vn nghim trng nht ca quc gia
vo thi im ny.
Volcker thnh cng trong vic gim lm
pht (t 10% xung 4%), nhng vi chi ph
l tht nghip cao (khong 10% vo nm
1983).
11
9
Chnh sch gim lm pht ca Volcker
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0
2
4
6
8
10
T l tht nghip
T l lm pht
1980 1981
1982
1984
1986
1985
1979
A
1983
B
1987
C
2/14/2011
Trn Mnh Kin
120
2/14/2011
41
THI K CA GREENSPAN
Nhim k thng c Fed ca Alan
Greenspan khi u vi nhng c sc thun
li v cung.
Vo nm 1986, cc nc thnh vin OPEC bi
b tha thun ca h v hn ch sn lng.
iu ny dn ti vic gim lm pht v gim tht
nghip.
12
1
Thi k Greenspan
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0
2
4
6
8
10
Tht nghip
T l lm pht
1984
1991
1985
1992
1986
1993
1994
1988
1987
1995
1996
2002
1998
1999
2000
2001
1989
1990
1997
2/14/2011
Trn Mnh Kin
122
S bin ng ca lm pht v tht nghip
trong nhng nm gn y tng i nh v
hnh ng ca Fed.
12
3
THI K CA GREENSPAN
2/14/2011
42
TM TT
ng Phillips m t mi lin h gia lm
pht v tht nghip.
Bng vic m rng tng cu, cc nh lm
chnh sch c th chn mt im trn ng
Phillips curve vi mc lm pht cao hn v
tht nghip thp hn.
Bng vic ct gim tng cu, cc nh lm
chnh sch c th chn mt im c lm pht
thp hn v tht nghip cao hn.
12
4
TM TT
S nh i gia lm pht v tht nghip
c m t bng ng Phillips ch ng
trong ngn hn.
ng Phillips di hn nm thng ng ti
mc tht nghip t nhin.
12
5
TM TT
ng Phillips ngn hn cng dch chuyn
khi c cc c sc v cung.
Mt c sc bt li v cung lm cc nh lm
chnh sch c s la chn t a thch hn
gia lm pht v tht nghip.
12
6
2/14/2011
43
TM TT
Khi NHTW ct gim tng trng cung tin
chng lm pht, n lm nn kinh t dch
chuyn dc ng Phillips ngn hn.
iu ny dn ti tht nghip cao hn.
Chi ph ca vic gim lm pht ph thuc
vo vic k vng v lm pht c c iu
chnh nhanh hay khng
12
7
2/14/2011
1
CHNG 7
NN KINH T M
2/14/2011 1
Trn Mnh Kin
KINH T V M CA NN KINH T M
Nn kinh t ng v nn kinh t m
Mt nn kinh t ng (closed economy) l
mt nn kinh t khng c s tng tc vi
cc nn kinh t khc trn th gii.
Khng c xut khu, khng c nhp khu v
khng c cc lung vn ra vo.
Mt nn kinh t m (open economy) l mt
nn kinh t tng tc mt cch t do vi
cc nn kinh t khc trn th gii.
2/14/2011 2 Trn Mnh Kin
KINH T V M CA NN KINH T M
Nn kinh t m
Mt nn kinh t m s tng tc vi
cc quc gia khc theo 2 cch:
N mua v bn hng ha, dch v trn th
trng sn phm th gii.
N mua v bn cc hng ha vn trn th
trng ti chnh th gii.
2/14/2011 3 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
2
LUNG HNG HA: XUT KHU,
NHP KHU V XUT KHU RNG
Xut khu (Exports) l hng ha v dch v
c sn xut trong ni a v bn ra nc
ngoi.
Nhp khu (Imports) l hng ha v dch v
c sn xut nc ngoi v bn vo ni a.
Xut khu rng (Net exports) (NX) l gi tr ca
hng ha xut khu ca quc gia tr i gi tr
ca hng ha nhp khu ca n.
Xut khu rng cng c gi l cn cn
thng mi (Trade balance).
2/14/2011 4 Trn Mnh Kin
Thm ht thng mi (Trade deficit) l tnh
hung m xut khu thun (NX) m.
Nhp khu > Xut khu
Thng d thng mi (Trade surplus) l tnh
hung m xut khu rng (NX) l dng.
Xut khu > Nhp khu
Cn bng thng mi (Balanced trade) ch
tnh hung xut khu rng bng 0 xut khu
bng vi nhp khu.
2/14/2011 5 Trn Mnh Kin
Nhng yu t tc ng n xut khu
rng
S thch ca ngi tiu dng v hng
ha ni a v hng ha nc ngoi.
Gi c ca hng ha trong nc v
nc ngoi.
T l trao i m ti mi ngi c
th dng tin ni t mua ngoi t.
2/14/2011 6 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
3
Nhng yu t tc ng n xut khu
rng:
Thu nhp ca c dn trong nc v
nc ngoi.
Chi ph vn chuyn hng ha gia cc
quc gia.
Chnh sch ca chnh ph i vi
thng mi.
2/14/2011 7 Trn Mnh Kin
Quc t ha nn kinh t M
%GDP
0
5
10
15
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1990 1985 2000 1995
Xut khu
Nhp khu
2/14/2011 8
Trn Mnh Kin
Quc t ha nn kinh t Vit Nam Vi du\Kinh t Nht Bn suy
thoi.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 9
2/14/2011
4
LUNG TI CHNH: U T RNG RA
NC NGOI
Lung vn rng chy ra ngoi (Net Foreign
Investment): Dng ch phn mua ti sn
nc ngoi ca ngi trong nc tr i phn
ti sn trong nc c mua bi ngi nc
ngoi.
Mt cng dn Vit Nam mua c phn ca Cng
ty Toyota v mt cng dn M mua c phn ca
Vinamilk.
2/14/2011 10 Trn Mnh Kin
NC NGOI
Khi mt cng dn Vit Nam mua c phn ca
Toyota, mt cng ty Nht, phn vn rng ca
Vit Nam chy ra nc ngoi tng ln.
Khi mt cng dn M mua tri phiu c
pht hnh bi chnh ph Vit Nam, vic ny
lm gim lung vn rng ca Vit Nam chy
ra ngoi.
2/14/2011 11 Trn Mnh Kin
NC NGOI
Nhng yu t tc ng ti u t rng ra
nc ngoi:
Li sut thc c tr cho ti sn nc ngoi.
Li sut thc c tr cho ti sn ni a.
Nhng ri ro v kinh t v chnh tr khi nm gi
ti sn nc ngoi.
Chnh sch ca chnh ph i vi vic s hu
ti sn ni a ca ngi nc ngoi.
2/14/2011 12 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
5
LUNG TI CHNH: VN RNG CHY
RA NC NGOI
Xut khu rng (NX) v u t rng nc ngoi
(NFI)
Vi mt nn kinh t nh mt tng th, NX v NFI
phi bng nhau:
NFI = NX
iu ny lun ng v bt c mt giao dch no tc
ng ti mt bn cng s tc ng ti bn kia cng
mt s lng.
2/14/2011 13 Trn Mnh Kin
TIT KIM, U T V MI LIN H
VI DNG VN QUC T
Xut khu rng l mt thnh phn ca GDP:
Y = C + I + G + NX
Tit kim quc gia l phn thu nhp ca quc
gia sau khi tr i phn thu nhp hin ti v
mua hng ca chnh ph:
Y - C - G = I + NX
2/14/2011 14 Trn Mnh Kin
TIT KIM, U T V MI LIN H
VI DNG VN QUC T Flows
Tit kim quc gia (S) bng Y - C - G, do :
S = I + NX
hay
Tit
kim
u t
ni a
u t
nc ngoi
rng
= +
S I
NFI
= +
2/14/2011 15 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
6
Tit kim quc gia, u t ni a v u t rng nc ngoi
%GDP
20
18
16
14
12
10
1960 1965 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970
(a) Tit kim v u t M (%GDP)
2000
u t trong nc
Tit kim quc gia
2/14/2011 16
Trn Mnh Kin
CN CN THANH TON
Cn cn thanh ton (BOP) l mt bn thng k
tt c cc giao dch bng tin ca mt quc gia
vi cc quc gia khc trong mt thi k nht nh
(thng l 1 nm).
BOP l mt bn bo co thng k tng hp rt
quan trng ca mt quc gia. N cho bit:
Tnh trng cn cn thng mi (X-M);
Cn cn vn (u t rng);
N nc ngoi (ang l con n hay ch n);
D tr ngoi t ang tng ln hay gim i
2/14/2011 17 Trn Mnh Kin
CN CN THANH TON
BOP thng bao gm 2 cn cn b phn chnh l:
Cn cn ti khon vng lai (Current Account
Balance)
Cn cn ti khon vn (Capital Account Balance)
Cn cn
thanh ton
= Ti khon
vng lai
+ Ti khon
vn
(BOP (CA) (KA)
2/14/2011 18 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
7
CN CN THANH TON
Cc hng mc thuc ti khon vng lai phn nh
cc lung thu nhp (Income flows) vo & ra khi
1 quc gia.
Cc hng mc thuc ti khon vn phn nh s
thay i trong ti sn c & ti sn n gia ngi
trong nc v ngi nc ngoi.
Cc bt ton c ghi theo nguyn tc: Ghi c
(+) i vi lung ngoi t vo (tng cung ngoi
t) & ghi n (-) i vi lung ngoi t ra (lm tng
cu ngoi t).
2/14/2011 19 Trn Mnh Kin
CN CN THANH TON CA VIT NAM Vi du\so sanh
tham hut.pdf Vi du\Luong von vao.pdf Vi du\Vietnam_and_its_myths_VN.pdf
Cn cn thanh ton quc t 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08
Cn cn tng th (t USD) 1.90 4.00 7.10 14.30 3.70
Cn cn vng lai (3.50) (0.90) (0.30) (9.80) (7.20)
Cn cn thng mi (8.50) (4.60) (4.60) (14.60) (9.50)
Chuyn giao rng 6.80 6.40 6.60 9.00 3.50
Cn cn vn 6.00 5.80 5.10 26.40 9.30
FDI 3.50 3.60 3.80 9.30 2.00
FII - 1.60 2.20 10.40 1.80
Khc 2.50 0.60 (0.90) 6.70 5.40
Vay trung hn (ch yu ODA) 2.60 1.70 1.70 2.90 0.90
Vay ngn hng - (1.10) (2.60) 3.80 4.60
Sai s (0.60) (0.90) 2.30 (2.30) 1.60
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 20
GI GIAO DCH QUC T: T GI HI
OI THC V DANH NGHA
Cc giao dch quc t b tc ng bi gi quc t.
2 loi gi quc t quan trng nht l t gi hi oi
danh ngha v t gi hi oi thc.
2/14/2011 21 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
8
T GI HI OI DANH NGHA
T gi hi oi danh ngha (Nominal exchange
rate) l t l m ti mt ngi i ng tin
ca 1 quc gia ny ly mt ng tin ca quc
gia khc.
T gi hi oi danh ngha c din t qua 2
cch:
Mt s lng tin t nc ngoi i c 1 dollar
M.
V lng dollar M i c 1 n v tin t nc
ngoi.
2/14/2011 22 Trn Mnh Kin
Gi s t gi hi oi gia Yen Nht v dollar
M l 80 yen cho 1 dollar.
1 U.S. dollar i c 80 yen.
1 yen i c 1/80 (= 0.0125) dollar.
2/14/2011 23 Trn Mnh Kin
S ln gi (Appreciation) ch s tng gi ca 1
ng tin c o lng bi s lng tin nc
ngoi n c th mua.
S mt gi (Depreciation) ch s gim gi tr
ca mt ng tin c o lng bi s lng
tin nc ngoi n c th mua.
Nu mt VND c th mua nhiu ng ngoi t
hn, l s ln gi ca VND.
Nu n mua c t ngoi t hn th l s mt
gi ca VND. Vi du\gia hang giam theo USD.mht Vi du\Iceland.mht Vi du\yn ln gi.mht Vi du\Dollar
yeu.mht
2/14/2011 24 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
9
T GI HI OI THC
T gi hi oi thc (Real exchange rate) l t l
m ti , mt ngi c th trao i ly hng ha
v dch v ca mt quc gia khc.
T gi hi oi thc so snh gi c ca hng ha
ni a v hng ha nc ngoi trong nn kinh t
ni a.
Nu 1 kt bia c t gp i 1 kt bia M, t gi
hi oi thc t s l kt bia c bng 1 kt bia
M.
2/14/2011 25 Trn Mnh Kin
T GI HI OI THC
T gi hi oi thc ph thuc vo t gi hi oi
danh ngha v gi ca hng ha ca 2 quc gia
tnh bng ng ni t ca h.
T gi hi oi thc l yu t then cht quyt nh
mt quc gia s xut khu hoc nhp khu bao
nhiu.
T gi hi oi thc =
T gi hi oi danh ngha Gi trong nc
Gi nc ngoi
2/14/2011 26 Trn Mnh Kin
T GI HI OI THC
Mt s mt gi (gim) trong t gi hi oi thc c
ngha rng gi hng ni a tr nn r tng i
so vi hng nc ngoi.
iu ny s khuyn khch ngi tiu dng c
ni a v nc ngoi mua nhiu hng ha Vit
Nam hn v mua t hng ha t nc ngoi.
2/14/2011 27 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
10
T GI HI OI THC
Do , xut khu ca Vit Nam s tng ln v
nhp khu s gim xung v c iu ny lm cho
xut khu rng ca Vit Nam tng ln.
Ngc li, mt s tng gi ca t gi hi oi
thc ca VND c ngha l hng ha Vit Nam tr
nn t hn so vi hng ha nc ngoi v xut
khu rng gim xung. Vi du\ng Vit nam b nh gi cao.mht
2/14/2011 28 Trn Mnh Kin
L THUYT U TIN V QUYT NH T GI
HI OI: NGANG BNG SC MUA
L thuyt v ngang bng sc mua (purchasing-
power parity theory) l l thuyt n gin nht v
c chp nhn rng ri nht gii thch s
khc nhau ca t l trao i cc ng tin.
L thuyt v ngang bng sc mua l l thuyt v t
gi hi oi cho rng mt n v tin t ca bt k
quc gia no phi mua c cng mt s lng
hng ha mi quc gia
2/14/2011 29 Trn Mnh Kin
LOGIC CN BN CA L THUYT
NGANG BNG SC MUA
L thuyt ngang bng sc mua c da trn
mt nguyn l c gi l qui lut 1 gi (the law
of one price).
Theo qui lut 1 gi, hng ha phi bn vi gi nh
nhau mi ni.
Nu nguyn tc 1 gi khng ng, c hi kim li
nhun s tn ti.
Qu trnh kim li nhun t gi khc nhau cc
a im khc nhau c gi l arbitrage.
2/14/2011 30 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
11
LOGIC CN BN CA L THUYT
NGANG BNG SC MUA
Nu arbitrage tn ti, cui cng, s khc bit v
gi 2 th trng khc nhau s phi hi t li.
Theo l thuyt v ngang bng sc mua, mt ng
tin phi c cng sc mua mi th trng mi
quc gia v t gi hi oi s thay i m bo
iu .
2/14/2011 31 Trn Mnh Kin
NHNG HM CA L THUYT CN BNG
SC MUA
Nu sc mua ca 1 USD l nh nhau trong
nc v nc ngoi, t gi hi oi s khng thay
i.
T gi hi oi danh ngha gia 2 ng tin phi
phn nh c s khc nhau v gi c gia 2
quc gia.
2/14/2011 32 Trn Mnh Kin
NHNG HM CA L THUYT CN BNG
SC MUA
Khi Ngn hng trung ng in mt lng tin ln,
ng tin ca n s mt gi c khi tnh bng
lng hng ha v dch v m n c th mua v
khi tnh bng lng cc ng tin ca nc khc
m n c th mua.
2/14/2011 33 Trn Mnh Kin
2/14/2011
12
Tin t, gi c v t gi danh ngha trong thi k siu lm
pht c
10,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000
100,000
1
.00001
.0000000001
1921 1922 1923 1924
Exchange rate
Money supply
Price level
1925
Indexes
(Jan. 1921 5 100)
2/14/2011 34
Trn Mnh Kin
NHNG HN CH CA L THUYT CN
BNG SC MUA
Nhiu hng ha khng th d dng trao i hoc
vn chuyn t quc gia ny sang quc gia khc
(Non-tradable goods).
Cc hng ha c th trao i (Tradable goods)
khng phi lun lun c th thay th nhau mt
cch hon ho khi n c sn xut cc quc
gia khc nhau.
2/14/2011 35 Trn Mnh Kin
CC CH T GI HI OI
C 3 ch t gi hi oi:
H thng t gi hi oi th ni
H thng t gi hi oi c nh
H thng t gi hi oi th ni c kim sot Vi
du\Ch t gi hi oi.mht
K vng t to ra chnh n (Self-fulfilling)
L thuyt v b ba bt kh thi (impossible
trinity) Vi du\B ba bt kh thi.mht Vi du\VND tng gi.mht Vi du\iu hnh chnh sch.mht
2/14/2011 Trn Mnh Kin 36
2/14/2011
13
TM TT
Xut khu rng l gi tr ca hng ha v dch v
ni a c bn nc ngoi tr i gi tr ca
hng ha v dch v nc ngoi c bn
trong nc.
Dng vn rng chy ra nc ngoi bng lng
ti sn ca nc ngoi do ngi trong nc nm
gi tr i lng ti sn trong nc do ngi
nc ngoi nm gi.
2/14/2011 37 Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
Trong mt nn kinh t, dng vn rng chy ra
nc ngoi lun bng xut khu rng.
Tit kim ca mt nn kinh t c th c dng
ti tr cho u t trong nc hoc mua ti
sn nc ngoi.
T gi hi oi danh ngha l gi tng i ca
ng tin gia 2 quc gia.
T gi hi oi thc l gi c tng i ca hng
ha v dch v gia 2 quc gia.
2/14/2011 38 Trn Mnh Kin
TM TT
Khi t gi hi oi thay i sao cho mi ng ni
t c th mua nhiu ng ngoi t hn, ng ni
t c gi l ln gi.
Khi t gi hi oi thay i sao cho mi ng ni
t mua c t ng ngoi t hn, ng ni t b
coi l xung gi hoc yu hn.
Theo l thuyt cn bng sc mua, mt ng tin
s mua c cng mt s lng hng ha mi
quc gia.
T gi hi oi danh ngha gia 2 ng tin ca 2
quc gia s phn nh mc gi ca 2 quc gia .
2/14/2011 39 Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
1
CHNG 8
TNG TRNG KINH T
2/22/2010 1
Trn Mnh Kin
SN XUT V TNG TRNG
Mc sng ca mt quc gia ph thuc vo kh
nng ca n trong vic sn xut hng ha v dch
v. Vi du\Vit Nam ngho do nng qu.mht Vi du\Ba triu i Trung Hoa sp v gi ma!.mht
Trong mt quc gia, c s thay i ln v mc
sng theo thi gian.
M trong th k trc, thu nhp trung bnh o
bi GDP trn u ngi tng trng khong
2%/nm.
2/22/2010 2
Trn Mnh Kin
Quc gia Thi k Thu nhp bnh qun
u ngi u k
(USD)
Thu nhp bnh qun
u ngi cui k
(USD)
Tc tng trng
hng nm (%)
Nht 1890-2000 1.256 26.460 2,81
Brazil 1900-2000 650 7.320 2,45
Mexico 1900-2000 968 8.810 2,23
c 1870-2000 1.984 27.330 2,04
Canada 1870-2000 1.825 25.010 2,03
Trung Quc 1900-2000 598 3.940 1,90
Argentina 1900-2000 1.951 12.090 1,86
M 1870-2000 3.347 34.260 1,81
Indonesia 1900-2000 564 2.390 1,45
n 1900-2000 743 2.840 1,35
Anh 1870-2000 4.107 23.550 1,35
Pakistan 1900-2000 616 1.960 1,16
S khc bit v tng trng trn th gii
2/22/2010 3
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
2
TNG TRNG KINH T TRN TH
GII
Mc sng, c o lng bi GDP thc/u
ngi, bin ng rt mnh gia cc quc gia.
Mt mc tng trng hng nm d nh nhng
s tr nn ln khi c tch ly li trong nhiu
nm.
Tng trng kp (Compounding) ch s tch
ly t l tng trng theo thi gian.
Qui tc 70/x
2/22/2010 4
Trn Mnh Kin
So snh quc t: Tng trng kinh t
1975-2003
(%)
1990-2003
(%)
Gp i sau
(nm)
Luxembourg 3,9 3,6 20
M 2,0 2,1 35
Hn Quc 6,1 4,6 15
Thi Lan 5,1 2,8 25
Trung Quc 8,3 8,5 8
Vit Nam 5,0 5,9 12
2/22/2010 5
Trn Mnh Kin
Nng sut (Productivity) Nng sut (Productivity) l thut ng ch l thut ng ch
khi lng hng ha v dch v c sn khi lng hng ha v dch v c sn
xut trn mi cng nhn trong mt gi lm xut trn mi cng nhn trong mt gi lm
vic. vic.
Mc sng ca mt quc gia c quyt
nh bi nng sut ca cng nhn nc .
SN XUT V TNG TRNG
2/22/2010 6
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
3
NNG SUT: VAI TR CA N V NHNG
NHN T QUYT NH
Nng sut ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic
quyt nh mc sng ca mi quc gia trn th
gii. Vi du\nang suat.mht
Nng sut dng ch s lng hng ha v dch
v m mt ngi cng nhn c th sn xut trong
mt gi lm vic. Vi du\nang suat lao dong 1.mht Vi du\nang suat 2.mht
hiu s khc bit ln lao trong mc sng gia
cc quc gia, chng ta phi tp trung vo vic sn
xut hng ha v dch v.
2/22/2010 7
Trn Mnh Kin
NNG SUT C QUYT NH TH NO
Cc u vo c s dng sn xut hng
ha v dch v c gi l cc yu t sn
xut.
Cc yu t sn xut s tc ng trc tip ti
nng sut.
2/22/2010 8
Trn Mnh Kin
Cc yu t sn xut
Vn vt cht (Physical capital)
Vn nhn lc (Human capital)
Ti nguyn thin nhin (Natural resources)
Trnh cng ngh (Technological
knowledge)
2/22/2010 9
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
4
Vn vt cht (Physical capital)
L nhn t sn xut c sn xut ra
N biu th cc yu t u vo ca qu trnh sn xut
m trc tng l sn phm ca qu trnh sn xut
khc (Cng c sn xut).
L khi lng trang thit b v c s vt cht
dng trong qu trnh sn xut ra hng ha v
dch v:
Cc cng c dng xy dng hoc sa cha t.
Cc cng c c s dng sn xut gia dng.
Vn phng, trng hc
2/22/2010 10
Trn Mnh Kin
Vn nhn lc (Human Capital)
Thut ng ca cc nh kinh t dng ch kin
thc v k nng m ngi lao ng thu c
thng qua gio dc, o to v tch ly kinh
nghim.
Cng nh vn vt cht, vn nhn lc lm tng kh
nng ca quc gia trong vic sn xut hng ha v dch
v. Vi du\Nhn lc ng th 11.mht Vi du\Cht lng ngun nhn lc qu yu.mht Vi du\trinh do nong dan kem.mht
Vn x hi (Social Capital) Vi du\Vn x hi v pht trin.mht Vi du\C th hc c tinh
thn kinh doanh.mht Vi du\T cht doanh nhn.mht Vi du\Chng ta ch l nhng ngi lm thu.mht Vi du\c ng-ci nhau.mht Vi
du\Thnhph lng m Hu.mht Vi du\nghin cu-vit nam.mht Vi du\vn ha nh i.mht Vi du\Th thao Vit Nam.doc
2/22/2010 11
Trn Mnh Kin
Ti nguyn thin nhin (Natural Resources)
Cc u vo c s dng trong qu trnh sn
xut c ngun gc t t nhin nh t, sng,
khong sn.
Cc ti nguyn ti to c (Renewable resources) nh
cy, rng
Cc ti nguyn khng ti to c (Nonrenewable
resources) nh du m v than .
C th rt quan trng nhng khng nht thit l
nguyn nhn lm cho nn kinh t c nng sut
cao trong vic sn xut hng ha v dch v. Vi du\GDP-
tai nguyen.xlsx
2/22/2010 12
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
5
Tri thc cng ngh (Technological
Knowledge)
Nhng tri thc ca x hi v cch tt nht
t chc sn xut hng ha v dch v. Vi
du\cng ngh tt hu.mht
Vn nhn lc cp ti vic nhng ngun
lc c dng truyn nhng tri thc
ny vo lc lng lao ng. Vi du\Gio dc-WTO.mht
2/22/2010 13
Trn Mnh Kin
FYI: HM SN XUT
Cc nh kinh t thng dng hm sn xut m
t mi lin h gia s lng u vo c s dng
trong qu trnh sn xut v sn lng u ra.
2/22/2010 14
Trn Mnh Kin
Y = A F(L, K, H, N)
Y = sn lng u ra
A = trnh sn xut cng ngh hin c
L = s lng lao ng
K = s lng vn vt cht
H = s lng vn nhn lc
N = S lng ti nguyn thin nhin
F( ) l mt hm s biu th cch thc m cc u
vo ny c kt hp.
2/22/2010 15
Trn Mnh Kin
FYI: HM SN XUT
2/22/2010
6
Mt hm sn xut c li tc khng i theo qui
m nu c mt s dng x cho:
xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN) xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)
iu ny c ngha l gp i mi s lng u
vo cng s lm sn lng tng gp i.
2/22/2010 16
Trn Mnh Kin
FYI: HM SN XUT
Hm sn xut vi li tc khng i theo qui
m c mt hm th v:
t x = 1/L,
Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L) Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)
Vi:
Y/L = sn lng trn mi cng nhn
K/L = vn vt cht trn mi cng nhn
H/L = vn nhn lc trn mi cng nhn
N/L = ti nguyn thin nhin trn mi cng nhn
2/22/2010 17
Trn Mnh Kin
FYI: HM SN XUT
Phng trnh trn cho thy rng nng sut (Y/L)
ph thuc vo vn vt cht trn mi cng nhn
(K/L), vn nhn lc trn mi cng nhn (H/L), ti
nguyn thin nhin trn mi cng nhn (N/L) v
trnh cng ngh (A). Vi du\ham san xuat-viet nam.mht
2/22/2010 18
Trn Mnh Kin
FYI: HM SN XUT
2/22/2010
7
TNG TRNG KINH T V CHNH
SCH CNG
Chnh ph c th lm nhiu vic nng cao nng sut v
mc sng.
Cc chnh sch ca chnh ph nhm nng cao nng sut v
mc sng
Khuyn khch tit kim v u t (K).
Khuyn khch u t t nc ngoi (K).
Khuyn khch gio dc v o to (H).
Thit lp quyn s hu v gi n nh chnh tr (I K).
Kch thch t do thng mi (A).
Kim sot tng trng dn s (K/L)
Kch thch nghin cu v pht trin (research and development
R & D) (A).
2/22/2010 19
Trn Mnh Kin
TM QUAN TRNG CA TIT KIM V
U T
Mt cch lm tng nng sut l u t
nhiu hn na ngun lc hin ti cho vic
sn xut t bn (capital).
2/22/2010 20
Trn Mnh Kin
Tng trng v u t
Copyright2003 Southwestern/ThomsonLearning
(a) Growth Rate 19601991 (b)u t,1960-91
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
Investment (percent of GDP) Growth Rate (percent)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 10 20 30 40
2/22/2010 21
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
8
Egypt
Chad
Pakistan
Indonesia
Zimbabwe
Kenya
India
Cameroon
Uganda
Mexico
Ivory
Coast
Brazil
Peru
U.K.
U.S.
Canada
France
Israel
Germany
Denmark
Italy
Singapore
Japan
Finland
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
Income per
person in 1992
(logarithmic scale)
0 5 10 15
Investment as percentage of output
(average 1960 1992)
20 25 30 35 40
Bng chng quc t
v t l u t v thu nhp u ngi
so snh quc t v tit kim ni a so vi GDP
(2000-2004)
Tn nc 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Vit Nam 27.1 28.8 28.7 27.4 28.3
Trung Quc 38.9 39.4 40.7 42.7 44.8
Philippine 17.5 18.1 19.5 20.1 20.4
Indonesia 26.2 26.4 24.7 23.5 22.4
Malaysia 47.1 42.3 41.9 42.9 45.0
Thi Lan 33.1 32.2 32.8 33.1 31.6
Hn Quc 32.6 31.9 31.4 32.8 35.0
Singapore 47.9 44.0 43.9 46.7 47.4
2/22/2010 23
Trn Mnh Kin
QUI LUT LI NHUN BIN GIM DN
V HIU NG UI KP
Khi khi lng t bn (stock of capital) tng,
sn lng tng thm do mi n v t bn thm
vo s gim i, y l iu c gi l qui lut
li nhun bin gim dn (diminishing returns).
Bi v li nhun bin gim dn, s tng ln
trong t l tit kim s ch lm tc tng
trng cao hn trong mt thi gian nht nh.
2/22/2010 24
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
9
Trong di hn, t l tit kim cao hn dn ti nng
sut v thu nhp cao hn nhng khng lm cho cc
bin s ny tng nhanh hn.
Hiu ng ui kp (catch-up effect) dng ch
c tnh trong mt quc gia c xut pht im
thp hn thng d tng trng vi tc cao hn
cc quc gia c xut pht im cao. Vi du\Gi thuyt hi t.mht
QUI LUT LI NHUN BIN GIM DN
V HIU NG UI KP
2/22/2010 25
Trn Mnh Kin
U T NC NGOI
Chnh ph c th lm tng qu trnh tch t t bn
v tng trng di hn bng cch khuyn khch
u t t nc ngoi.
2/22/2010 26
Trn Mnh Kin
u t nc ngoi c th din ra di nhiu hnh
thc:
u t trc tip nc ngoi (Foreign Direct
Investment)
u t t bn c s hu v iu hnh bi mt thc
th nc ngoi. Vi du\FDI thc hin.mht
u t gin tip nc ngoi (Foreign Portfolio
Investment)
u t c ti tr t vn nc ngoi nhng c vn
hnh bi php nhn trong nc.
U T T NC NGOI
2/22/2010 27
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
10
GIO DC
Gio dc cng quan trng tng t nh vn vt
cht cho tng trng di hn ca mt quc gia.
M, mi nm i hc trung bnh lm tng
mc lng ca mt ngi ln 10%. Vi du\thu nhp tng t gio
dc.mht Vi du\Unem Rate and Level of Edu.mht
Nh vy, mt cch m chnh ph c th lm
tng mc sng l ci thin iu kin gio dc
v khuyn khch ngi dn tham gia
hng li t chng. Vi du\Gio dc n li gii thch.mht
2/22/2010 28
Trn Mnh Kin
GIO DC
Mt ngi c gio dc tt c th to ra cc tng
mi v vic lm cch no tt nht sn xut ra hng
ha v dch v, iu ny ti lt n li lm phong ph
thm kho kin thc ca x hi v to ra cc ngoi ng
tch cc cho nhng ngi khc.
Mt trong nhng vn m cc nc ngho phi i
mt l nn chy mu cht xm (brain drain) - s di c
ca cc lao ng c trnh cao nht ti cc nc
giu. Vi du\Thu ht nhn ti.mht
2/22/2010 29
Trn Mnh Kin
QUYN S HU TI SN V N NH
CHNH TR
Quyn s hu ti sn (Property rights) l khi nim
c dng ch kh nng ca con ngi trong vic
thc thi quyn ca mnh i vi nhng ngun lc m
n s hu.
Mt tin quan trng h thng gi c hot ng l s
tn trng quyn s hu ti sn trn bnh din ton b nn
kinh t. Vi du\S hu t ai.mht Vi du\Sn golf-nong dan.mht
iu cn thit l lm cho nh u t cm thy rng khon
u t ca h c bo m. Vi du\Venezuela quc hu ha.mht Vi du\k bin ti sn.mht Vi du\Bi
u xe ngm 1.mht Vi du\Bi u xe ngm 2.mht
2/22/2010 30
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
11
THNG MI T DO
Thng mi, ni theo mt cch no l cng
ngh.
Mt quc gia tho d cc ro cn thng mi s
tng trng kinh t ging ht nh khi n t c
tin b vt bc trong cng ngh.
2/22/2010 31
Trn Mnh Kin
THNG MI T DO
Mt s quc gia c:. . .
. . . Chnh sch thng mi hng ni (inward-
orientated), trnh s tip xc vi cc quc gia
khc.
. . . Thng mi thng mi hng ngoi
(outward-orientated), khuyn khch s tng tc
vi cc quc gia khc.
2/22/2010 32
Trn Mnh Kin
NGHIN CU V PHT TRIN
(Research and Development - R&D)
S tin b v tri thc cng ngh (technological
knowledge) lm mc sng cao hn.
Hu ht cc tin b cng ngh xut pht t cc
nghin cu t nhn c tin hnh bi cc doanh
nghip v nh pht minh c lp.
Chnh ph c th khuyn khch s pht trin ca cc
cng ngh mi thng qua cc khon tr cp dnh
cho nghin cu, min gim thu v h thng bn
quyn.
2/22/2010 33
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
12
TNG TRNG DN S
Cc nh kinh t v cc nh khoa hc x hi khc
tranh lun t lu v vic tng trng dn s tc ng
th no ti x hi.
Tng trng dn s tng tc vi cc yu t sn xut
khc:
Gy p lc ln ti nguyn thin nhin
Lm gim lng vn trn u ngi
Kch thch tng trng cng ngh Vi du\c hi dn s.mht
2/22/2010 34
Trn Mnh Kin
Chad
Kenya
Zimbabwe
Cameroon
Pakistan
Uganda
India
Indonesia
Israel
Mexico
Brazil
Peru
Egypt
Singapore
U.S.
U.K.
Canada
France
Finland
Japan
Denmark
Ivory
Coast
Germany
Italy
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
1 2 3 4 0
Income per
person in 1992
(logarithmic scale)
Population growth (percent per year)
(average 1960 1992)
Bng chng quc t v tng trng dn s
v thu nhp u ngi
TM TT
Trnh pht trin kinh t, c o lng bi
GDP thc/u ngi, c s khc nhau rt ln gia
cc nc.
Thu nhp trung bnh ca nhng quc gia giu nht
gp 10 ln thu nhp ca nc quc gia ngho nht
th gii.
Mc sng ca mt nn kinh t ph thuc v kh
nng sn xut hng ha v dch v ca mt nn
kinh t.
2/22/2010 36
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
13
Nng sut ph thuc vo lng vn vt cht, vn
nhn lc, ti nguyn thin nhin v tri thc cng
ngh m ngi lao ng c th tip cn.
Cc chnh sch ca chnh ph c th tc ng vo
tc tng trng ca nn kinh t theo nhiu cch
khc nhau.
TM TT
2/22/2010 37
Trn Mnh Kin
S tch t vn ph thuc vo qui lut li nhun
gim dn.
V qui lut li nhun gim dn, tit kim cao hn
dn ti tng trng cao hn trong mt giai on
nhng cui cng tc tng trng ny ri s
gim xung.
Cng bi v qui lut li nhun bin gim dn, li
nhun t vn c bit cao nc ngho.
TM TT
2/22/2010 38
Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
1
M HNH IS-LM
Trn Mnh Kin 1
CHNG 9
2/22/2010
GIAO IM KEYNES
Mt m hnh n gin ca Keynes v nn kinh t ng trong
thu nhp c quyt nh bi chi tiu
Trong :
I = u t d kin
AE = C + I + G = Tng chi tiu d kin
Y = GDP thc = Tng chi tiu thc t
S chnh lch gia chi tiu d kin v chi tiu thc t bng
tn kho khng d kin
2/22/2010 2 Trn Mnh Kin
GIAO IM KEYNES: HNH V
Chi tiu
d kin
AE = Y
AE =C +I +G
Y
AE
Thu nhp cn bng
2/22/2010 3 Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
2
TNG CHI TIU CHNH PH
Y
AE
AE
1
= C + I + G
1
AE
2
= C +I + G
2
Y
Ti Y
1
, tn kho
khng d kin
gim
DN tng
sn lng
v thu nhp
tng ln Y
2
G
Y
1 Y
2
2/22/2010 4 Trn Mnh Kin
TI SAO S NHN LN HN 1
u tin, mt s tng ln trong G lm Y tng mt lng
tng ng: Y = G.
Nhng Y C
lm tng Y thm na (Y )
Tip tc lm tng C (C)
Li tip tc lm tng Y (Y).
C nh vy, tc ng cui cng ti thu nhp s ln hn
khon G ban u.
2/22/2010 5 Trn Mnh Kin
TC NG CA TNG THU
Y
AE
AE
2
= C
2
+ I + G
AE
1
= C
1
+I + G
Y
Ti Y
1
, tn kho
khng d kin
tng
DN gim
sn lng
v thu nhp
gim xung
Y
2
T
Y
2 Y
1
2/22/2010 6 Trn Mnh Kin
2/22/2010
3
QUAN H GiA LI SUT V U T
Y
r
Y
1
Y
2
r
1
r
2
Li sut gim t r
2
xung r
1
s lm tng
u t t Y
1
ln Y
2
2/22/2010 7 Trn Mnh Kin
NG IS
Trn Mnh Kin 8
nh ngha: L ng biu din cc kt hp ca li sut (r) v
sn lng (Y) th trng hng ha cn bng.
Tc l: Chi tiu thc t (sn lng)
= Chi tiu d kin
Phng trnh ca ng IS l:
Y = C(Y-T
0
) + I(r) + G
0
2/22/2010
Y
2
Y
1
Y
2
Y
1
NG IS
Trn Mnh Kin 9
r I
Y
AE
AE =C +I (r
1
)+G
AE =C +I (r
2
)+G
r
1
r
2
AE =Y
IS
I
AE
Y
r
Y
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
4
TI SAO NG IS DC XUNG?
Trn Mnh Kin 10
Li sut gim s kch thch doanh nghip tng u t,
qua lm tng tng chi tiu d kin (AE).
phc hi cn bng trn th trng hng ha, sn
lng (chi tiu thc t) phi tng ln.
2/22/2010
NG IS
Chng ta bit rng:
0 0 0
1
] ) ( [
1
1
T
MPC
MPC
G r I C
MPC
Y
+ +
=
0 0 0 0
1
] [
1
1
T
MPC
MPC
G I C
MPC
Y
+ +
=
Trn Mnh Kin 11
Khi r tng, I gim v do Y gim. Mi lin h nghch chiu
gia r vY c gi l ng IS.
Khi I = I(r), chng ta c:
2/22/2010
NG IS
Vi bt c gi tr no ca li sut (r), v d r
1
, Y s tng ln
nu:
C s tng ln ca chi tiu chnh ph (G), tiu dng t nh (C)
hay u t t nh (I)
Hoc nu thu gim i.
Do , nhng thay i ny dch chuyn ng IS sang bn
phi.
Trn Mnh Kin
0 0 0
1
] ) ( [
1
1
T
MPC
MPC
G r I C
MPC
Y
+ +
=
2/22/2010
5
SDCH CHUYN CA NG IS
Trn Mnh Kin Y
1
Y
2
r
1
Y
IS
1
IS
2
Y
r
CHNH SCH TI KHA V NG IS
Trn Mnh Kin 14
Chng ta c th s dng m hnh IS-LM xem chnh
sch ti chnh (G v T) tc ng th no ti tng cu v
sn lng.
u tin, hy s dng giao im Keynes xem chnh
sch ti chnh lm dch chuyn ng IS nh th no
2/22/2010
Y
1
Y
2
Y
1
Y
2
ng IS dch chuyn: G
Trn Mnh Kin 15
Vi bt k gi tr no ca r,
G AE Y
Y
AE
r
Y
AE =C +I (r
1
)+G
1
AE =C +I (r
1
)+G
2
r
1
AE =Y
IS
1
ng IS dch sang
ngang mt on
bng:
IS
2
v ng IS dch
sang phi.
1
1 MPC
=
Y G
Y
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
6
Trn Mnh Kin 16
L thuyt v s a thch thanh khon l cch gii thch
n gin nht ca Keynes v li sut, theo li sut
c quyt nh bi cung v cu tin.
2/22/2010
CUNG V CU TIN
Trn Mnh Kin 17
Cung tin c c
nh bi NHTW
Cu tin ph thuc
vo sn lng
Cung tin v cu
tin s quyt nh
li sut
M
r
M
S
M
0
M
D
r
0
2/22/2010
KHI NHTW GIM CUNG TIN
Trn Mnh Kin 18
Khi gim
cung tin,
li sut cn
bng s
tng ln
M
r
M
D
r
1
r
2
M
S
M
S
0
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
7
NG LM
Trn Mnh Kin 19
Hm cu v tin:
M
D
= L(r, Y)
ng LM l s kt hp ca mi li sut (r) v sn lng
(Y) c s cn bng trn th trng tin t.
Phng trnh ca ng LM l:
M
D
= L(r, Y)
Mi lin h trc tip gia r vY c gi l ng LM
2/22/2010
NG LM
Trn Mnh Kin 20
M
r
r
2
r
Y Y
1
r
1
r
1
r
2
Y
2
LM
(a) Th trng cho cu tin
(b) ng LM
L(r , Y
2
)
L(r , Y
1
)
2/22/2010
TI SAO NG LM DC LN
Trn Mnh Kin 21
Mt s tng ln trong thu nhp lm tng nhu
cu v tin.
V cung tin l c nh, s c s d cu v
tin t mc li sut ban u.
Do , li sut phi tng ln phc hi s
cn bng trn th trng tin t.
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
8
SDCH CHUYN CA NG LM
Trn Mnh Kin
22
Y
0
r
1
LM
1
r
0
LM
0
Y
r
2/22/2010
CCH M LM DCH CHUYN NG LM
Trn Mnh Kin 23
M/P
r
L (r , Y
1
)
r
1
r
2
r
Y
Y
1
r
1
r
2
LM
1
(a) Th trng cho cu tin
(b) ng LM
LM
2
M
2
M
1
2/22/2010
CN BNG TRONG NGN HN
Trn Mnh Kin 24
im cn bng ngn hn l
s kt hp gia r v Y sao cho
ng thi tha mn iu kin
cn bng c trn th trng
hng ha v tin t:
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G
M = L(r, Y)
Y
r
IS
LM
Li sut cn
bng
Thu nhp cn
bng
r
e
Y
e
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
9
LC TNG QUT
Trn Mnh Kin 25
Giao im
Keynes
Giao im
Keynes
L thuyt v s
a thch thanh
khon
L thuyt v s
a thch thanh
khon
ng
IS
ng
IS
ng
LM
ng
LM
M hnh
IS-LM
M hnh
IS-LM
ng
tng cu
ng
tng cu
ng
tng cung
ng
tng cung
M hnh
tng cung
v tng cu
M hnh
tng cung
v tng cu
Gii thch cc
bin ng kinh
t
ngn hn
Gii thch cc
bin ng kinh
t
ngn hn
2/22/2010
M HNH IS - LM
Trn Mnh Kin 26
Lm sao s dng m hnh IS-LM phn tch tc ng
ca cc c s, chnh sch ti kha, chnh sch tin t.
Cch xy dng ng tng cu t m hnh IS-LM
Mt s l thuyt gii thch cuc i suy thoi (Great
Depression) M giai on 1929-33.
2/22/2010
PHN TCH CHNH SCH VI M HNH IS-LM
Trn Mnh Kin 27
Chng ta c th s dng m
hnh IS-LM phn tch tc
ng ca:
Chnh sch ti kha: G
v/hoc T
Chnh sch tin t: M
IS
Y
r
r
e
Y
e
LM
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
10
SDCH CHUYN CA NG IS V LM
28
ng IS dch sang bn phi
nu:
G, tiu dng hoc chi tiu t
nh tng hoc T gim
ng LM dch sang bn phi
nu:
M tng hoc P gim hoc cu
tin t nh gim
Y
r
LM
IS
0
IS
1
Y
r
LM
0
IS
LM
1
Trn Mnh Kin 2/22/2010
TNG CHI TIU CA CHNH PH
Trn Mnh Kin 29
1. ng IS dch sang phi
1 on bng: 1/(1-
MPC)G lm tng sn
lng & thu nhp
2. iu ny lm tng cu
tin dn ti li sut tng
ln
3. v s lm gim u t
dn ti Y tng t hn
1/(1-MPC)G
IS
1
Y
r
LM
IS
2
Y
2
1.
2.
r
2
r
1
Y
1
3.
2/22/2010
CT GIM THU
Trn Mnh Kin 30
1. Thu nhp tng thm mt
lng bng MPC/(1-
MPC)T v ng IS
cng dch sang phi ng
bng nh vy.
2. iu ny lm tng cu
tin dn ti li sut tng
ln v s lm gim u
t nn Y s tng t hn
MPC/(1-MPC)T
IS
1
Y
r
LM
IS
2
Y
2
1.
2.
r
2
r
1
Y
1
3.
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
11
2. lm li sut
gim xung
IS
CHNH SCH TIN T: TNG M
Trn Mnh Kin 31
1. M> 0 lm ng LM
dch sang bn phi
Y
r
LM
1
r
1
Y
1
Y
2
LM
2
3. lm tng u
t dn ti sn
lng v thu
nhp tng.
r
2
2/22/2010
STNG TC GiA CHNH SCH
TIN T V TI KHA
Trn Mnh Kin 32
M hnh: Bin tin t v bin ti kha (M, G v T) l bin
ngoi sinh.
Th gii thc: Cc nh lm chnh sch tin t c th iu
chnh M p li s thay i trong chnh sch ti kha
hoc ngc li.
S tng tc nh vy c th lm thay i tc ng ca cc
chnh sch ban u.
2/22/2010
NHTW P TR LI VIC G > 0
Trn Mnh Kin 33
Gi s Quc hi quyt nh tng G.
Ngn hng trung ng c th p tr bng cch:
1. Gi nguyn M
2. Gi nguyn r
3. Gi nguyn Y
Trong mi trng hp nh vy, tc ng ca G s
khc nhau.
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
12
P TR 1: GIM KHNG I
Trn Mnh Kin 34
Nu Quc hi tng
G, ng IS s dch
chuyn sang phi
IS
1
Y
r
LM
1
Y
1
IS
2
Y2
r
2
Nu NHTW gi
nguyn M, ng LM
s khng dch
chuyn. Kt qu:
Y = Y
2
Y
1
r = r
2
r
1
Hiu ng ln ht
(crowding-out effect)
r
1
2/22/2010
P TR 2: GIr KHNG I
Trn Mnh Kin 35
Nu Quc hi tng
G, ng IS s dch
chuyn sang phi
.
IS
1
Y
r
LM
1
r
1
Y
1
IS
2
Y
2
r
2 gi r khng i,
NHTW s tng M v
lm ng LM dch
chuyn sang phi
LM
2
Kt qu:
Y = Y
3
Y
1
r = 0
Tc ng ln ht b trit tiu v
mc tng sn lng s ln hn
Y
3
2/22/2010
P TR 3: GIY KHNG I
Trn Mnh Kin 36
Nu Quc hi tng
G, ng IS s dch
chuyn sang phi
.
IS
1
Y
r
LM
2
r
1
IS
2
Y
1
r
3 gi Y khng i,
NHTW s gim M v
lm ng LM dch
sang. Kt qu:
LM
1
Y = 0
r = r
1
r
2
Hiu ng ln ht pht huy ton b: li
sut tng nhiu ti mc m cc kch thch
ti chnh b trit tiu hon ton
Y
2
r
2
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
13
CC C SC TRONG M HNH IS -LM
Trn Mnh Kin 37
C sc IS : Cc thay i ngoi sinh trong th trng hng
ha v dch v.
V d:
S bng n hoc sp ca th trng chng khon:
Lm thay i thu nhp ca h gia nh
C, tiu dng t nh thay i (C
0
)
Thay i trong lng tin hoc d kin ca doanh
nghip v h gia nh
I v/hoc C
2/22/2010
Trn Mnh Kin 38
C sc LM : s thay i mang tnh ngoi sinh trong nhu
cu v tin t.
V d:
Mt ln sng gian ln v th tn dng lm tng nhu
cu v tin t.
Nhiu my ATM hoc Internet lm gim nhu cu v
tin.
CC C SC TRONG M HNH IS -LM
2/22/2010
PHN TCH CC C SC TRONG M HNH IS-LM
Trn Mnh Kin 39
S dng m hnh IS-LM phn tch tc ng ca:
1. S bng n trong th trng chng khon lm tng s
giu c ca ngi tiu dng
2. Sau mt ln sng la o th tn dng, ngi tiu dng
s dng nhiu hn tin mt trong giao dch.
Vi mi c sc: S dng th IS-LM thy tc ng ca
mi c sc trn Y v r.
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
14
IS-LM V NG TNG CU
Trn Mnh Kin 40
trn, chng ta s dng m hnh IS-LM phn tch
trong ngn hn, khi mc gi c gi nh l khng i.
Tuy nhin, mt s thay i trong mc gi P s lm dch
chuyn ng LM v qua tc ng ti Y.
ng tng cu (Aggregate demand curve) biu din mi
quan h gia P v Y.
2/22/2010
V NG AD
41
Y
1
Y
2
Y
P
IS
LM(P
1
)
LM(P
2
)
AD
P
1
P
2
Y
2
Y
1
r
2
ng AD dc
xung:
P (M/P)
LM
dch sang tri
r
I
Y
r
1
Y
r
SDCH CHUYN CA NG AD
Trn Mnh Kin 42
Cc c sc v s thay i
chnh sch hn l s gim
P lm tng Y cng lm
ng AD dch chuyn sang
phi.
ng AD s dch chuyn
sang phi nu:
G tng hoc
Tiu dng t nh C hoc I
tng, hoc
T gim
M gim, hoc
Cu tin t nh gim.
Y
P
AD
1
P
1
AD
2
Y
1 Y
2
2/22/2010
2/22/2010
15
CHNH SCH TIN T V NG AD
43
Y
P
IS
LM(M
2
/P
1
)
LM(M
1
/P
1
)
AD
1
P
1
Y
1
Y
1
Y
2
Y
2
r
1
r
2
NHTW c th tng
tng cu:
M LM dch
sang phi
AD
2
Y
r
r
I
Y tng
mi gi tr ca P
CHNH SCH TI KHA V NG AD
44
Y
2
Y
2
r
2
Y
1
Y
1
r
1
Y
r
Y
P
IS
1
LM
AD
1
P
1
Chnh sch m rng ti
kha (G v/hoc T)
lm tng tng cu:
T C
IS dch sang
phi
Y tng mi
mc gi tr ca P
AD
2
IS
2

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