Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

By Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky

( )

Kahneman
- 1934 Tel Aviv
- 1954
-
- 1958 UC, Berkeley 1961 .
- 1961 .
: Pupil Diameter and Load on Memory, Science, 1966.
- 1978 University of British Columbia
- 1986 University of Berkeley
- 1993 Princeton University
- 2002
- 2007 ,
Tversky
- 1937 Haifa
- 1961
- 1965
-
- 1978 Stanford University .
Tel Aviv , .
- 1996 , 59
- 2002 Kahneman The man who wasn't there (Boston Globe, 10/21/2002)

Kahneman Tversk
Kahneman 1968-1969
Tversky
.
1

 Edward
. Kahneman
. 1971-1972 Oregon Research Institute

. 1974 Judgment under uncertainty:
Heuristics and biases Science , ,
. 1977-1978 Center for
Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences . ,
Thaler Kahneman Tversky
(Behavioral Econmics) . Kahneman
2002 Tversky .

http://nobelprize.org/cgi-bin/asxgen.asx?id=531&type=lecture&year=2002
http://nobelprize.org/cgi-bin/asxgen.asx?id=532&type=interview&year=2002

(preference) .
(outcome)
.

.
. .
.
. (X,p,Y) X p Y 1p ,
.
A ( , 0.1, 0 )

B ( , 1, 0)

A EU(A) 0.1 0
0.9 . EU(A)=U( )*.1+U(0 )*.9 B
EU(B)=U( )*1.0+U(0 )*0 . 0 0
0.1*U( ) U( ).
B , 0.1 .

.

 (1738)
, von Neumann Morgenstern .

.
.


.
, .
9 8 8
1 .

.

.
.
,
.
.
.
.
Prospect
,
( editing ) .
(decision weight) .

35 . 1/3 Kahneman Tversky
, Science Nature
. 10 3-4
. .
.
1.
1 Tversky Kahneman Science 10
50 (SSCI). ,
,

(adjustment

and

anchoring)

 . 2 .
,
Prospect theory .
()

8x7x6x 5x 4x 3x2x1

1x2x 3x 4x 5x 6x7x8

2. (Representativeness). A B A B
A B .
() Linda 31 . ,
.
. Linda .
. Linda .
. Linda .
, , .

3. :
.
() (likelihood) ?
. , .
. .
n

4. (Availability): (salient)
.
()

K K ?

5. (Covariation and control)

.
.
.
() : 85% 15% .
.
80%.
?

() (8.67 1.96)
6. (Overconfidence): .
() .

() Calibration
7. (Multistage evaluation).
.
() ,
.
8. (Corrective procedures):

.
9. (Risk perception):

.
10.

Kahneman Tversky Gigerenzer .
, Kahneman Tversky
.
Kahneman Tversky .
K&T ,
.
Gigerenzer Linda
77% 22% .
100 [b] [c]
? ( 77% - 22%)

.

. , K&T 46,656
5

 , Neyman-Pearson .28 .82

.
Gigerenzer
, K&T
.
, Kahneman Gigerenzer
.

Kahneman Tversky
, .


.

.
.

. Kahneman

.
answering that by looking at facts rather than
discussing words
.
.