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March 28, 2014 Global Economics
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Global Real Estate Trends Adrienne Warren (416) 866-4315 adrienne.warren@scotiabank.com The recovery in global property markets is becoming more entrenched and broadly based. An improving economic outlook combined with historically low borrowing costs are buoying confidence in the sector, notwithstanding still soft labour markets in many regions. In our latest round-up of international house prices, roughly two-thirds of national markets posted real annual price appreciation through the end of 2013, up from 40% a year earlier. Among advanced economies, Canada continues to hold its place near the top rungs of our survey. Average inflation-adjusted house prices rose 8% y/y in Q4. The national average increase is skewed by a mix of sales favouring some of the countrys priciest markets, but most centres continue to post moderate annual price gains slightly outpacing inflation. We expect the pace of Canadian house price growth will slow this year. Sales have been weakening since last fall as higher prices alongside tougher mortgage rules eroded affordability. Recent declines in some fixed mortgage rates may provide some temporary relief, although modestly higher borrowing costs are still on the horizon as global growth picks up. An emerging oversupply of condominiums in several large urban centres also risks putting downward pressure on prices. The U.S. housing recovery has lost some momentum. Affordability, while still good, has been dented by higher prices and borrowing costs. Meanwhile, tight credit conditions and lacklustre job growth have restricted the pool of first-time buyers, which remains well below normal levels. Even so, tight supply continues to underpin valuations, with real house prices up 6% y/y in Q4. From a cyclical perspective, the U.S. housing expansion has further to go. Improving job and income growth should underpin strengthening sales this year, while new construction will widen the pool of listings. In both Canada and the United States, we expect some release of weather-induced pent-up demand this spring. Property markets in Europe are mixed, mirroring divergent regional economic conditions. Improving domestic activity is supporting strengthening real house price growth in Ireland (+6% y/y), Germany (+5% y/y) and the U.K. (+3% y/y). Switzerland and Sweden are posting steady increases of around 4% y/y. At the same time, weak economic growth and historically high unemployment continue to hold back the housing recovery in a number of other European nations, including France (-2% y/y). Conditions also remain quite weak in Spain (-5% y/y) and Italy (-6% y/y), though prices appear to be nearing a bottom after an extended period of declines. Improving regional growth prospects should support a more synchronized pickup in 2014. A re-acceleration in home prices in China has lifted the nation back to the top of our international ranking, though the pace of increase has shown some signs of slowing in early 2014 amid moderate policy tightening. Australias housing market also has heated up again (+7% y/y), while Indonesia and Thailand are seeing steady price growth of about 4% y/y. Conditions remain much softer in South Korea, India and Russia. Latin American housing markets remain among the best performing in the group, supported by relatively healthy domestic demand and improving inflation dynamics that have allowed monetary policy easing in a number of Global Housing Recovery Deepens
-10 0 10 20 Italy* India Russia Spain Japan* France South Korea Mexico U.K. Indonesia Brazil Thailand Sweden Chile Switzerland Germany** Ireland U.S. Australia Canada Colombia Peru China *2013Q3 **2013. Source: Scotiabank Economics 2013Q4, y/y % chg Real House Prices
Global Real Estate Trends
March 28, 2014 Global Economics 2 countries. Peru and Colombia continue to lead the region with real house prices advancing around 10% y/y, while Chile is posting steady gains of 5% y/y. Mexicos housing market has lagged, but should benefit from domestic market reforms and a strengthening U.S. economy. Even Brazils housing market has remained fairly resilient in the face of weak growth and a significant tightening in monetary policy. Global property markets will likely gain further traction this year as the economic recovery becomes more entrenched and labour market prospects improve. Long- term borrowing costs are drifting higher, but excess capacity and subdued inflation should anchor short-term interest rates at historically low levels. From a regional perspective, the U.S. housing recovery should remain an outperformer among advanced nations, while positive medium-term demographic and income trends support rising housing demand in many emerging markets in Asia and Latin America. Focus on Canada An Increasingly Diversified Market Canadas housing sector appears to be moving back onto a more sustainable trajectory. Home sales in the first two months of the year were running just 1% above a year earlier and about 6% below the average level of the past decade. A combination of factors are contributing to the more moderate sales trend, including weaker job growth, lower housing affordability, and a widening gap between the cost of owning versus renting. Prices continue to climb despite the more tempered sales environment. The national average house price in January/February was up almost 10% y/y. However, the headline increase is magnified by stronger sales in some of Canadas priciest markets, including Vancouver. Constant quality house price measures put the underlying price trend at around 5% y/y consistent with a market that is fairly well balanced overall, though slightly favouring sellers in some segments. Regional conditions vary substantially. Home sales in Calgary and Vancouver have picked up sharply over the past year, with demand in the former fuelled by strong employment and population growth well above the national pace, while the latter is recovering from weak conditions last year. Sales were generally more muted in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, suggesting the winter deep- freeze continues to deter buyers. Only in three provinces Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are sales trending above their 10-year average. In a few markets, including Toronto and Calgary, a lack of listings for single-family homes appears to be holding back sales. Sellers conditions continue to dominate the undersupplied single-family market, lifting already high prices even higher. Buyers have more leverage in the more-amply supplied condominium market, notably in Toronto where prices are posting moderate increases even amid strong demand. As a result, the price premium for a single-family home relative to a condominium continues to widen. The shortage of single-family homes for sale combined with strained affordability for first-time buyers will buoy resale condominium demand in the year ahead, though prices should be restrained by sizeable new inventory of recently completed units. Sales and prices of new condominiums, a large share of which are purchased by investors, are expected to remain soft. Meanwhile, relatively tight market conditions could continue to pressure single-family home prices in some of Canadas largest urban centres. 200 300 400 500 600 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Canadian Existing Home Sales Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics 000s, annualized 10-year average 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 90 95 00 05 10 Canadian Housing Affordability Source: Scotiabank Economics Mortgage payment / PDI per worker Long-term average National Average 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 05 07 09 11 13 Benchmark House Price (HPI) - Toronto Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics $000s Single-family Apartment
Global Real Estate Trends
March 28, 2014 Global Economics 3 Canadian Residential Markets
March 28, 2014 Global Economics 9 International Residential Markets
International House Prices (Inflation-adjusted*, y/y % change) Source of nominal house price data: Australia: Price index of established houses, weighted average of 8 capital cities. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Canada: National average price of existing home sales. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). France: Price index of second-hand dwellings. National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). Germany: Resale house price index. Bundesbank unpublished. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Ireland: Average price of second-hand houses (before 2006). Irish Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. Residential Property Price Index, all dwellings (from 2006). Central Statistics Office. Italy: Resale house price index, average of 13 urban areas (before 2011). Bank of Italy. House Price Index, new and existing homes, all dwellings (from 2011). Eurostat/Istat. Japan: Residential urban land price index. Japan Real Estate Institute. Spain: Average price of second-hand houses. Bank of Spain. Sweden: Real Estate Price Index, buildings for permanent living. Statistics Sweden. Switzerland: Price index for single-family homes. Swiss National Bank. United Kingdom: Mix-adjusted house price index, all dwellings. U.K. Office for National Statistics. United States: National average price of existing single-family home sales. National Association of Realtors. Russia: Average price per square metre, existing homes, all dwellings, urban areas. Federal State Statistics Office. Brazil: Residiential real estate collateral value index, all dwellings, urban areas. Central Bank of Brazil. Chile: New House Price Index (IRPV), Greater Santiago, all dwellings. Chilean Chamber of Construction. Colombia: New House Price Index (IPVN), all dwellings, 23 municipalities. National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). Mexico: Housing Price Index (Indice SHF), new and existing homes, all dwellings. Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal. Peru: Price per square meter of apartments, Lima. Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). China: Sale price of second-hand residential buildings, Beijing. National Bureau of Statistics of China. India: Housing Price Index (NHB Residex), new and used homes, all dwellings, 15 cities. National Housing Bank. Indonesia: Residential Property Price Index, new homes, all dwellings, 14 city composite. Central Bank of Indonesia. South Korea: House Price Index, new and existing homes, all dwellings. Bank of Korea. Thailand: Housing Price Index, single-detached house (incl. land), Bangkok & vicinity, Government Housing Bank loans (before 2009). Bank of Thailand. Housing Price Index, single-detached house (incl. land), Bangkok & vicinity, Commercial Bank loans (from 2009). Bank of Thailand. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 Australia -1.2 4.2 9.0 0.1 1.7 9.1 -5.9 -2.5 4.1 0.9 2.9 5.9 6.7 Canada 7.7 9.2 8.6 -3.1 4.8 4.1 4.1 -1.2 4.3 0.2 2.5 7.3 8.5 France 13.5 10.1 5.0 -2.3 -7.2 3.4 3.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 -3.1 -3.3 -2.2 Germany -3.9 -2.8 -1.2 -1.7 -0.2 0.9 2.5 4.5 4.7 .. .. .. .. Ireland 10.0 11.8 5.6 -9.0 -16.6 -11.6 -14.3 -14.7 0.9 -4.0 -0.9 2.7 5.8 Italy 5.5 3.6 2.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -2.2 -5.9 -8.2 -7.2 -6.4 Japan -4.8 -3.6 -1.1 -2.6 -2.4 -3.1 -2.9 -2.7 -2.3 -1.6 .. -2.5 .. Spain 11.2 6.5 2.6 -3.9 -7.3 -5.7 -9.2 -11.3 -7.9 -11.2 -9.0 -6.6 -4.9 Sweden 8.6 10.8 8.2 -0.2 1.9 6.6 -1.9 -2.3 3.2 2.7 3.3 2.9 4.0 Switzerland -0.1 1.4 1.3 0.3 5.5 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.9 4.0 5.9 5.0 4.6 United Kingdom 3.4 4.0 8.6 -4.6 -10.0 4.0 -5.4 -1.2 1.0 -0.5 0.2 0.8 3.4 United States 6.1 -2.0 -5.0 -12.7 -9.3 -0.2 -6.4 3.1 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.7 6.3 Russia 10.9 38.4 35.3 10.3 -12.4 1.4 -29.3 9.9 -3.2 -0.4 -2.2 -3.8 -6.2 Brazil 3.9 9.0 13.8 16.7 18.8 19.2 12.6 6.5 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.9 3.7 Chile -1.5 -5.2 -2.1 -2.1 0.4 1.9 5.3 2.7 5.2 6.5 5.1 4.7 4.6 Colombia 4.1 3.3 10.8 6.7 5.5 5.3 6.2 7.6 9.4 9.8 9.9 9.2 8.8 Mexico .. 3.0 3.6 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.8 0.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 0.4 Peru -6.1 -4.1 2.4 22.1 14.1 9.4 13.7 18.1 14.1 16.8 10.8 16.5 12.5 China .. .. .. .. -1.0 1.7 -4.5 -4.8 11.1 3.8 10.2 13.7 16.7 India .. .. .. -0.7 -5.9 3.3 6.2 -2.2 -2.1 2.7 -1.6 -2.2 -6.6 Indonesia -6.5 -7.8 -4.1 -6.3 -2.6 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 5.2 6.1 6.5 4.9 3.4 South Korea -2.0 3.9 6.6 -0.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.2 0.7 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 Thailand 3.5 -0.9 -1.1 -6.6 5.2 -2.3 -0.7 -1.8 3.3 1.5 3.9 3.7 3.9 * Nominal house prices deflated by national consumer price indices.