Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 8 September 2014

Political and security risk updates


Tese briefings are produced by Bradburys Global Risk Partners in collaboration
!it Open Briefing.
Africa: "l#Sabaab leader killed in $S drone strikes in Somalia%
Aericas: &o'ernment resuffle in (ene)uela indicates economic and political
paralysis%
Asia and Pacific: *apanese and +ndian prime ministers agree to accelerate nuclear
talks%
!urope: ,easefire signed bet!een $krainian forces and rebels- !ile .est !arns
/ussia of furter sanctions sould te peace deal fail%
"iddle !ast: ,lases bet!een go'ernment supporters and 0outi rebels continue
to escalate in 1emen%
Polar regions: /ussian sips depart to reopen "rctic na'al base on 2e! Siberian
+slands%
"frica
Al#$habaab leader killed in %$ drone strikes in $oalia
$S drone strikes on 1 September destroyed t!o 'eicles being used by militants
from al#Sabaab as tey tra'elled from a meeting of te group3s leadersip to!ards
teir main base in te coastal to!n of Bara!e- Somalia% On 4 September- te
Pentagon confirmed tat "med "bdi &odane- te co#founder and leader of al#
Sabaab- ad been killed in te strikes- !ic al#Sabaab reported also killed fi'e
oter militants%
&odane- also kno!n as 5uktar "bu 6ubeyr- took o'er te leadersip of al#Sabaab
in 2008 after te ten leader- "dan 0asi "yro- !as killed by a $S missile strike%
&odane7s deat marks a serious setback for te militant organisation% 8uring is
leadersip- al#Sabaab formed an alliance !it al#9aeda and strengtened its
presence in large parts of Somalia- !ile also carrying out attacks in neigbouring
:enya and $ganda- including te .estgate 5all attack in :enya on 21#24 September
201;%

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"ltoug tere is no ob'ious immediate successor to &odane- and !ile is deat !ill a'e an impact on
morale among figters on te ground- it does not mark te end of te al#Sabaab treat% 8espite te
successful elimination of a key operational figure in te organisation- al#Sabaab !ill continue to pose a
significant treat bot nationally and regionally- not least of all to te Somali go'ernment- !ic tey
a'e pledged to o'ertro!% Somali President 0assan Seik 5amoud as rene!ed is call for militants
to take ad'antage of a 44#day amnesty period- and to mo'e to!ards peace in te aftermat of &odane7s
deat% Tere is a particularly ig risk to tose countries contributing to "frican $nion 5ission in Somalia
<"5+SO5= forces% On 8 September- an "$ con'oy !as attacked sout!est of 5ogadisu by a suicide
bomber dri'ing a car laden !it e>plosi'es- killing 12 ci'ilians and in?uring 2@- including "$ soldiers%
Other de'elopents
Appro(iately &)*+++ people ha'e been dri'en fro the northeastern ,igerian town of Baa after
Boko -ara reportedly sei.ed the town. On ; September- te 2ational Amergency 5anagement "gency
<2A5"= in Borno State announced tat more tan 2B-000 displaced persons ad been registered so far-
!it te number e>pected to gro! furter% Te Borno State go'ernment and military spokesmen-
o!e'er- continue to deny tat Boko 0aram a'e sei)ed te to!n in an offensi'e tat started on 1
September% 5ean!ile- te $nited States e>pressed its increased concern o'er te escalating 'iolence
and te territorial gains Boko 0aram is making- including te ig risk of an attack on 5aiduguri- te
capital of Borno State% Te upsurge in 'iolence is a serious treat to te 2igerian go'ernment- particularly
as Boko 0aram as recently turned its attention to olding on to its territorial gains%
"o.abi/ue0s President Arando Guebu.a and forer rebel group Renao signed a landark peace
deal on 1 $epteber* after rebel leader Afonso 2hlakaa eerged fro hiding. Te deal marks te
end of t!o years of clases bet!een go'ernment forces and figters loyal to 8lakama- !o accused te
5o)ambican state of reneging on te peace agreement tat follo!ed te 14#year#long ci'il !ar in 1CC2%
"ltoug 8lakama ailed te peace deal as an important step for!ard- e continued to criticise te rule
of ci'il !ar 'ictors Drelimo% 0a'ing lost e'ery presidential election since 1CC4- /enamo is struggling to
keep its status as te ma?or opposition party- !it te ruling party- Drelimo- e>pected to !in by a landslide
in te upcoming October elections- te first test of te ne! peace agreement%
$outh Africa0s opposition leader* -elen 3ille* ais to reopen a corruption case against President
4acob 3ua after winning a fi'e#year battle to obtain tape recordings used in a &++5 court case*
before he becae president. 6uma denied te carges- insisting on a political conspiracy by is
opponents in te go'erning "frican 2ational ,ongress <"2,=% +n te 200C case- te tapes formed te basis
on !ic prosecutors dropped carges against 6uma of accepting bribes to t!art an in'estigation into a
Drenc arms company in'ol'ed in a late 1CC0s !eapons deal% Te recordings !ere ne'er made public%
On the radar
A report on the %, $upport "ission in 6ibya 7%,$"869 is due on : $epteber* !it te
Security ,ouncil to old consultations on C September%
The %nited ,ations is warning of gra'e huan rights 'iolations coitted by fighters in
6ibya as te outgoing go'ernment admits to a'ing effecti'ely lost control of te capital%
The 6iberian go'ernent is ad;usting the prices of essential coodities in response to price
ikes due to te Abola outbreak affecting te country7s economy%
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"mericas
Go'ernent reshuffle in =ene.uela indicates econoic and political paralysis
On 2 September- (ene)uelan President 2icolEs 5aduro announced a long#a!aited go'ernment resuffle
in !at e termed a Fre'olutionary sake#up3% +n a tree#our tele'ised speec- 5aduro presented te
recent go'ernment restructuring as a timely solution to te country3s rampant economic ills- !it a drop
of nearly 4G in te country3s production output during te first alf of 2014 and e>perts forecasting an
inflation rate of o'er B0G% Te ma?or announcement !as te remo'al of /afael /amHre) from te oil
ministry- a role e ad eld for o'er a decade% /amHre) !as replaced by one of 0ugo ,E'e)3s cousins-
"sdrIbal ,E'e)% /odolfo 5arco Torres- a former brigadier#general- is to take on te country3s top
economic role at te elm of te ne!ly created 'ice#presidency of economy and finance% Dollo!ing te
sake#up- leaders of te opposition and prominent figures among te business sector a'e continued to
criticise te go'ernment for its inability to carry out muc#promised liberal economic reforms%
5aduro first mentioned te need for a Fre'olutionary sake#up3 at te start of *uly- follo!ing te ousting
of *orge &iordani- te ten minister of planning and te arcitect of te Boli'arian economic model% "t
te time of &iordani dismissal- te (ene)uelan president defended a more liberal stance in economic
affairs J a posture tat !as upeld by /amHre)- te ten oil minister and a ead of state oil firm P8(S"%
/amHre) argued for more ortodo> macroeconomic measures to tame inflation and d!indling central bank
reser'es- as !ell as more fiscal discipline to limit te country3s budget deficit% But is remo'al from te
ead of te country3s ma?or economic institutions represents a dramatic back!ards sift%
Te recent cabinet resuffle reflects te broader struggle bet!een te more pragmatic and radical
brances of te ruling $nited Socialist Party of (ene)uela <PS$(=- amid te ongoing crisis of legitimacy in
5aduro3s leadersip% "ccordingly- te recent nomination of Torres and ,E'e) strengtens te position of
te radical and military sections of te PS$( to better influence go'ernment policymaking% Tis latest
episode in (ene)uelan politics represents a ma?or blo! to te more pragmatic camp of te PS$(% .it
/amire) sidelined- te potential for a liberal pus !itin te ruling socialist party appears more remote
tan e'er% +n contrast- 8iosdado ,abello- a retired military officer and current cairman of te parliament
and 'ice#president of te PS$(- as risen as te most#po!erful contender to 5aduro3s rule% +n tis
conte>t- it seems unlikely tat any meaningful liberal economic reforms !ill be implemented before te
upcoming 2014 legislati'e election%
Other de'elopents
Re'elations of an alleged large#scale corruption scandal ha'e tarnished the iage of Bra.ilian
President 2ila Rousseff. On B September- te media re'ealed te names of 40 politicians supposedly
in'ol'ed in bribery and money laundering troug Petrobras- te state#o!ned oil company% Te list
includes a minister and se'eral go'ernors and congressmen of te ruling .orkers7 Party <PT=% /ousseff as
so far re?ected te allegations- and urged a toroug in'estigation of te matter% But te leaked
accusations are likely to boost support for te main contender in te upcoming presidential election-
5arina Sil'a%

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Around >*+++ workers and students arched in ?hile@s capital* $antiago* to urge President "ichelle
Bachelet to ipleent refors that were proised during her election capaign. Te protest !as
organised by te .orkers7 $nited ,entre of ,ile- !ic demands tat te go'ernment enacts reforms
tat !ould strengten te po!er of unions- among oter tings% Te ,ilean minister of labour- *a'iera
Blanco- assured tat te go'ernment !as !illing to enact suc reforms- and stated tat a draft la! !ould
be passed in congress later in te year% Te urdles faced by Bacelet to fulfil te promises made during
er election campaign a'e led to a surge of protest o'er te past fe! monts%
The newly appointed general secretary of the %nion of $outh Aerican ,ations 7%,A$%R9* !rnesto
$aper* has 'owed to reacti'ate the political dialogue between the go'ernent and the opposition
in =ene.uela% Samper- te president of ,olombia bet!een 1CC4 and 1CC8- !ill start is mandate !it a
tour of (ene)uela- ,ila- "rgentina and $ruguay% "ccording to some sources- e !ill meet !it
(ene)uelan President 2icolEs 5aduro during is 'isit to te capital- ,aracas% O'er te past year- $2"S$/
as attempted to ease political tensions in (ene)uela by fostering a dialogue bet!een te go'ernment
and te oppositionK o!e'er- a general lack of political !ill as meant te dialogue as so far failed to li'e
up to e>pectations%
On the radar
APeace Beek@ to continue in ?olobia up to 1> $epteber as part of te ongoing negotiations
bet!een te go'ernment and D"/,%
%ruguay general election scheduled for &) October.
Curther protests possible in 8/ui/ue* ?hile* due to delayed reconstruction !ork follo!ing an
eartLuake in "pril%
Curther protests and clashes possible in Peru0s capital* 6ia* amid te ongoing strike by ealt
!orkers%
"sia and Pacific
4apanese and 8ndian prie inisters agree to accelerate nuclear talks
"t a diplomatic summit in Tokyo last !eek- *apanese Prime 5inister Sin)M "be and +ndian Prime 5inister
2arendra 5odi agreed to speed up a nuclear energy pact- toug te deal !as not finalised during 5odi3s
'isit to *apan% "be !ants 5odi to agree to freLuent inspections of nuclear po!er plants to ensure tat
spent nuclear fuel is not used for military purposes% "mong se'eral oter safeguards- *apan also !ises to
limit te number of nuclear tests in +ndia% +ndia as not signed te 2uclear 2on#proliferation Treaty% 5odi
and "be also agreed to !ork to!ards +ndia gaining full member status at te 2uclear Suppliers &roup% +n
addition to nuclear#related discussions- Tokyo agreed to pus to!ards a doubling of *apan3s direct
in'estment in +ndia o'er te ne>t fi'e years- aiming to reac a total N4 billion% "be also agreed to
distribute an aid loan of N480 million to te +ndia +nfrastructure Dinance ,ompany%

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,i'il nuclear negotiations bet!een +ndia and *apan began in 2010- but !ere alted after te Dukusima
8aiici plant disaster in 5arc 2011% 2egotiations reportedly resumed bet!een ten#Prime 5inister
5anmoan Sing and "be in 5ay 201;% 8espite not being a signature to te 2uclear 2on#proliferation
Treaty- +ndia as signed bilateral agreements !it se'eral countries- including ,anada- te $nited States-
Britain- Drance- :a)akstan and /ussia% On 4 September- "ustralian Prime 5inister Tony "bbott signed a
nuclear energy deal in 2e! 8eli% +n addition to progress on te nuclear cooperation and economic ties-
te t!o parties also agreed to regular maritime military e>ercises and to asten talks regarding +ndia3s
purcase of Sin5ay!a $S#2 ampibious aircraft% +ndia and *apan maintain similar interests in maritime
security and a'e recently participated in ?oint military e>ercises !it te $nited States% 5ost recently- te
+ndian 2a'y participated in A>ercise 5alabar !it te $nited States and *apan near Sasebo- *apan- on 24
*uly 2014%
.ile *apan3s entusiasm at increasing and deepening cooperation and engagement !it +ndia is
consistent !it te t!o countries3 istorically strong bilateral relationsip- "be3s actions also fit into a
larger effort to edge against ,inese influence% "t te summit in *apan- 5odi e>pressed a tinly 'eiled
distaste for ,inese geograpic and na'al e>pansionism% *apan- traditionally embroiled in territorial
disputes !it ,ina in te Aast ,ina Sea- as been acti'ely !orking to deepen and !iden its relations
!it oter "sian countries% +ndeed- on B September- "be began a tree#day 'isit to Banglades and Sri
Oanka% "be is te first *apanese prime minister to 'isit Sri Oanka in 24 years and to 'isit Banglades in 14
years% ,ina too as been acti'ely e>panding its ties !it tese Sout "sian countries% Tus- as ,ina
becomes more asserti'e territorially- militarily and economically- it is likely tat competition for political
and diplomatic clout !itin te "sia#Pacific !ill continue to intensify%
Other de'elopents
?hinese Preier D8 4inping has cancelled an official 'isit to Pakistan aid anti#go'ernent protests
in 8slaabad. 8uring is 'isit to Pakistan- !ic !as originally sceduled for later tis mont- Pi !as
e>pected to sign o'er N;4 billion in bilateral trade deals% ,ina and Pakistan a'e istorically maintained
strong economic and political ties% ,ina is Pakistan3s largest trading partner% Te cancellation of te 'isit
means tat te signing of te bilateral trade deals could be postponed% +f tis occurs- it could furter
!eaken te domestic political position of Pakistani Prime 5inister 2a!a) Sarif% Sarif as been facing
calls for is resignation and allegations tat Sarif3s party ad rigged last year3s general election% Suc
anti#go'ernment protests began last mont- and became 'iolent on ;0 "ugust% Te demonstrations a'e
led to tree deats and more tan 400 in?uries% Talks bet!een Sarif3s go'ernment and opposition leaders
are e>pected to continue tis !eek% +n addition to te ,inese cancellation- Sri Oankan officials !ere also
forced to cancel an official 'isit last mont as a result of te ongoing political situation in Pakistan% Bot
te ,inese and Pakistani go'ernments a'e empasised teir continuing efforts to rescedule Pi3s 'isit%
,orth Eorea launched three short#range issiles on ) $epteber. Te missiles !ere launced from a
military location of te souteastern city of .onsan on Saturday morning% Sout :orean intelligence
suggests tese missiles are a ne! type of tactical missile designed to a'e a longer range tan te e>isting
:2#02 sort#range missiles- !ic a'e a range of about 1@0 kilometres% Te tree missiles launced on B
September fle! rougly 210 kilometres before landing in te Sea of *apan% +t is belie'ed tat tese are
te same type of missiles tat !ere launced on 14 "ugust and 1 September% Te launces took place ?ust
aead of a traditional ar'est oliday in Sout :orea tat begins on 8 September and lasts for tree days%
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Thailand@s Prie "inister General Prayuth ?han#ocha announced this week that artial law would
not be lifted in the near future. Prayut ,an#oca is also te cief of te 2ational ,ouncil for Peace and
Order <2,PO=- te organisation currently controlling Tailand% +n an official statement by te 2,PO- te
prime minister indicated tat te tenuous political situation in te country meant tat martial la! !as still
necessary- but tat tey !ould continue to monitor te need for martial la! in te coming monts%
Sources in Tailand indicate tat regional army areas are continuing to in'estigate te political situation in
nort and norteast Tailand% +n particular- te Second and Tird "rmy areas in tese regions a'e
indicated teir belief tat underground groups continue to acti'ely campaign against te 2,PO% "t te
same time- reports from Tokyo- *apan- indicate tat /ed Sirt acti'ists- !o oppose te 2,PO- a'e
gatered outside *apan3s foreign ministry% Tese demonstrators a'e also accused te 2,PO of engaging
in torture in teir enforcement of martial la!%
On the radar
One of ,orth Eorea@s top diploats will 'isit Belgiu* $wit.erland and se'eral other
!uropean countries tis !eek%
"yanar@s parliaent speaker* % $hwe "ann* will continue an official 'isit to =ietna this
week in an effort to boost political and economic relations%
The %nited $tates is e(pected to finalise a ilitary assistance deal with $outh Eorea to
upgrade more tan 1;0 Sout :orean D#1B figter ?ets%
A top ?hinese go'ernent official stated that the country@s ongoing anti#corruption
capaign will continue for at least fi'e years.
Aurope
?easefire signed between %krainian forces and rebels* while Best warns Russia of further sanctions
should peace deal fail
$krainian President Petro Porosenko announced a 12#point ceasefire bet!een $krainian forces and pro#
/ussian separatists at te 2"TO summit on 4 September in .ales% $krainian officials and pro#/ussian
rebels signed te ceasefire deal on 4 September in 5inks- Belarus- in te presence of /ussian obser'ers
and Organisation of Security and ,ooperation in Aurope <OS,A= representati'es% Te agreement came into
effect on te same day at 14Q00 &5T% Te signatories also agreed to !itdra! ea'y !eaponry- to release
all prisoners and to permit te deli'ery of umanitarian aid into te afflicted region%
+n response to te announcement of a ceasefire- Barrack Obama claimed tat te $nited States !as
opeful tat te ceasefire !ould old- yet sceptical tat te rebels !ould obey te conditions set in te
deal or tat /ussia !ould cease 'iolating $kraine3s territorial integrity% Te pre'ious 10#day ceasefire in
*une failed to stall te rapidly escalating crisis or to produce significant results during negotiations
bet!een /ussia- $kraine and te separatist rebels% 8espite te agreement- "ndriy Oysenko- te
spokesman for te $krainian 2ational Security and 8efence ,ouncil- reported on B September tat te
rebels ad already fired on go'ernment forces in eastern $kraine on 10 occasions since te ceasefire !as
put in place% Similarly- (ladimir 5ako'ic- a parliamentary member of te self#proclaimed 8onetsk
People7s /epublic- claimed tat $krainian units ad launced se'eral missiles to!ards rebel strongolds%

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"t te 2"TO summit- te Auropean $nion and te $nited States confirmed tat furter sanctions against
/ussia ad been dra!n up to deter 5osco! from furter attempting to escalate te figting in eastern
$kraine% +t is igly likely tat if te current ceasefire fails to alle'iate te figting in eastern $kraine te
$nited States and te Auropean $nion !ill enforce additional sanctions on te /ussian economy% "t te
2"TO summit- President Barack Obama empasised tat te .est sould continue to place pressure on
/ussia !it increasing sanctions in order to ensure tat te success of te ceasefire% Te ne! sanctions-
appro'ed on 4 September- could be implemented by as early as C September- and are likely to target
5osco!3s access to trade in defence and arms tecnology and dual#use and sensiti'e tecnology- as !ell
as /ussian access to capital markets% /ussia as !arned tat it !ill respond duly to furter sanctions
placed on te country by te .est%
Other de'elopents
On < $epteber* Crance announced the suspension of the deli'ery of the first of two "istral assault
ships to Russia. Drance ad recei'ed fierce criticism from its allies- including te $nited :ingdom and te
$nited States- for refusing to call off te sale of te sips to /ussia in ligt of te :remlin3s role in te
$krainian conflict% +n 2011- Drance agreed to build and sell t!o ad'anced elicopter assault sips to /ussia
for R1%2 billion% Te first !as originally sceduled for deli'ery in October 2014 and te second in 2014% On
; September- Drancois 0ollande3s office announced tat te Drenc president ad decided to postpone
te sipment until 2o'ember- and !ould not deli'er te sips until a ceasefire !as put into place in
$kraine% +f Drance decides to cancel te contract !it /ussia- it !ould a'e to reimburse te R1 billion
/ussia as already paid- and it could be liable for an additional R241 million penalty payment%
On 1 $epteber* the !stonian foreign inistry suoned the Russian abassador following reports
of the abduction of an !stonian security official by unidentified Russian indi'iduals on the border
between the two countries. " statement released by te ministry reported tat te official !orking for
te Astonian +nternal Security Ser'ice <:apo= !as abducted near te Ouamaa border ceckpoint% Te DSB-
/ussia3s intelligence agency- reported to /ussian ne!s agencies tat Aston :o'er- a :apo official- ad
been detained on /ussian territory on suspicion of spying% "n ea'esdropping de'ice- a firearm and R4-000
in cas- !ere allegedly found on :o'er at te time of is arrest%
On 1 $epteber* during the second day of the ,ATO $uit in Bales* ,ATO announced se'eral
reassurance easures for eastern ,ATO ebers. One of te measures is te creation of a ne!
spearead force capable of rapid deployment% Sources claim tat te force !ould number up to 4-000
troops- and !ould include air- na'al and special forces support% Britis Prime 5inister 8a'id ,ameron as
confirmed tat Britain !ill contribute 1-000 troops to te force% 2"TO !ill also send supplies and
eLuipment to be pre#positioned in eastern 2"TO member states% Te alliance also adopted a /eadiness
"ction Plan to respond to gro!ing treats on 2"TO members3 borders from bot /ussia and te 5iddle
Aast%

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On the radar
The !uropean Parliaent President "artin $chul. will tra'el to %kraine to eet %krainian
Prie "inister Arseniy Gatsenyuk and President Petro Poroshenko on 11#12 September%
The Galta !uropean $trategy ?onference will be held in Eie'* %kraine* on 12 September%
!uropean %nion -igh Representati'e for Coreign Affairs ?atherine Ashton will 'isit
Bashington on C#10 September%
Air Crance pilots to take industrial action and strike from 14#22 September%
5iddle Aast
?lashes between go'ernent supporters and -outhi rebels continue to escalate in Geen
0undreds of tousands of demonstrators took to te streets in te 1emeni capital- Sanaa- after Driday
prayers on 4 September% Pro#go'ernment supporters rallied against counter#protests by Si3ite 0outi
rebels !o denounce te current go'ernment amid claims of corruption and lack of Sia representation%
Beyond te capital- clases bet!een 0outi rebels and tribesmen supported by te 5uslim Broterood7s
"l#+sla party claimed te li'es of at least 40 people in te country7s nortern al#*a!f pro'ince%
+nitially te 0outi ad demanded te resignation of Prime 5inister 5oammed Basinda!a and te
reinstatement of fuel subsidies% On 4 September- President "bd#/abbu 5ansour 0adi proposed replacing
Basinda!a and reducing fuel prices% 0o!e'er- rebel groups a'e since denounced 0adi7s o'ertures- and
raised teir demands to include te resignation of te !ole go'ernment% 0outi leader- Seik Sayyid
"bdul#5alik al#0outi- called for increased pressure to be placed on te go'ernment- and for rallies to
continue and escalate trougout te capital%
Te callenge remains tat muc of te country7s political turmoil is te result of economic affairs- toug
te go'ernment7s recent reinstatement of fuel subsidies may create greater room for le'erage !it
0outi groups% 0o!e'er- in order to be successful- te go'ernment must gain te support of unilateral
donors and institutions suc as te +nternational 5onetary Dund in order to manage te current crisis J
someting it as not yet managed to do% Te 1emeni economy relies ea'ily on oil and gas production- and
te recent targeting of essential infrastructure by rebels treatens to undermine international financial
in'estment- compounding domestic callenges% Protests are set to continue- !it no clear go'ernmental
strategy announced and no clear indication of te concessions acceptable to te rebels%
Other de'elopents
%$ airstrikes hit sites near the -aditha 2a* &>+ kiloetres northwest of Baghdad* 8ra/* on F
$epteber. Te airstrikes !ere te first to target te Sunni "nbar pro'ince since counter#offensi'es
began in "ugust% Te $S defence sectary announced tat te attacks !ere launced at te reLuest of +raLi
forces% Te air campaigns aim to protect a number of +raL3s strategic assets- including dams% +slamic State
<+S+S= figters sei)ed control of te Dallu?a dam in "pril- flooding many rural areas and displacing
tousands% 5ilitants ten sei)ed te 5osul dam in "ugust- before being forced out by $S strikes and
:urdis armed forces% +t is belie'ed a number of local Sunni tribesmen a'e ?oined te offensi'e against
te +slamic State !itin 0adita- a positi'e indication of regional pro#go'ernment support%

Open Briefing | 5
$yrian airstrikes targeted 8slaic $tate strongholds in Ra//a pro'ince on ) $epteber. Te latest
strikes targeted a training camp and an +S+S#run bakery in /aLLa city- killing at least 12 ci'ilians and nine
militants% /aLLa remains a strategic strongold for te +slamic State- !ic took control of a ma?or
go'ernment airbase in te pro'ince in late "ugust and no! controls muc of te city7s 'ital ser'ices and
infrastructure% Te latest +S+S offensi'es represent a callenge to te "ssad go'ernment as te pro'incial
capital is ome to some 400-000 Sunni ci'ilians- and airstrikes risk large numbers of non#combatant
casualties% "ssad as called for .estern support in te figt against te +slamic StateK o!e'er- support
as been muted because of te ongoing ci'il !ar and uman rigts abuses by te go'ernment% .ile te
$nited States as appro'ed sur'eillance fligts and intelligence gatering in Syria- any cooperation !it
8amascus from te international community appears unlikely%
On ) $epteber* iages eerged on social edia of the beheading of a 6ebanese soldier held
capti'e by 8slaic $tate. "bbas 5edle? is te second Oebanese soldier to be killed by +S+S follo!ing te
capture of 1C security officials during a cross#border raid in "ugust% Tis raid igligts te security
callenges faced by Oebanon because of te !ell#eLuipped +slamic State rebels in neigbouring Syria% Suc
attacks a'e ser'ed to inflame sectarian tensions !itin Oebanon in a spillo'er from te Syrian crisis- !it
Sia and 0e)bolla in support of "ssad and Sunnis largely sympatetic to!ards rebel groups% 2egotiations
are under!ay to secure te release of te remaining capti'e troops- and te $nited States as deli'ered
!eapons and ammunition to te Oebanese "rmy%
On the radar
%$ President Barack Obaa to address congress on the 8slaic State on 10 September%
8sraeli intelligence inister Gu'al $teinit. to tra'el to Bashington on1+ $epteber to lobby
delegation officials aead of te rene!ed +ranian nuclear talks on 18 September%
8ncreased risk of terrorist acti'ity and separatist unrest on $epteber Re'olution 2ay in
Geen on &) $epteber.
Polar /egions
Russian ships depart to reopen Arctic na'al base on ,ew $iberian 8slands
Si> 'essels from /ussia3s nortern fleet a'e departed from a na'al base in Se'eromorsk- eading for te
eastern 2e! Siberian +slands% /ussian ne!s agency /T as reported tat te 'essels- !ic include t!o
ampibious crafts and an anti#submarine sip- !ill remain permanently at a military base on te islands%
Pre'iously abandoned in 1CC;- te base !ill undergo reconstruction- and is e>pected to start functioning
later tis year% +n addition to te na'al fleet- te base !ill be eLuipped !it military personnel- ea'y
armaments and air support%
Te mo'e comes after a recent escalation in retoric bet!een "rctic states- !it ,anadian foreign
minister *on Baird declaring to 8enmark3s Berlingske ne!spaper last !eek tat ,anada !as Fdetermined
to promote and defend te so'ereignty of ,anada in te "rctic3% Te strain on "rctic relations is due in
part to .estern reactions to /ussia3s ad'ances on $kraine- as !ell as competing national interests to!ards
te region3s abundant natural resources- dra!ing te attention of multiple energy companies to te
region%

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/ussia3s actions are set to eigten tensions among "rctic states- !it 2or!ay a'ing already appealed to
2"TO in 5ay of tis year to remain !atcful o'er its "rctic member states as !ell as its ,entral and
Aastern Auropean members% Bot 2or!egian foreign minister +ne Ariksen SSreide and Baird a'e urged
te international community to remain 'igilant in its approac to /ussia and to keep "rctic geopolitics in
mind !en confronting /ussian aggression in $kraine%
Other de'elopents
$hell plans to continue its e(ploration of Alaska@s ?hukchi $ea in &+11. Submitting documents to te
$S go'ernment last !eek- Sell as detailed its intentions to furter e>plore te "rctic% "s Sell a'e yet
to decide !eter to pursue a drilling campaign in te "rctic due to past safety o'ersigts and operati'e
failures- it appears as toug decisions !ill likely be made aead of te ne>t round of prospecting- !ic
could take place as early as summer 2014% Te $S coastguard and te $S department of te interior a'e
pre'iously e>pressed criticisms of Sell3s risk management protocol and contractor o'ersigt in te "rctic%
A ;oint e(pedition between ,orway and Russia has begun to e(plore the potentially ha.ardous
presence of a sunken nuclear subarine in the Barents $ea. So'iet submarine :#14C- !ic sank in 200;
!ile being to!ed for scrapping- is currently being analysed by 14 researcers from 2or!ay and /ussia in
order to ascertain te potential treat posed to te en'ironment from radioacti'e !aste aboard te
'essel% Sinking !it 800 kilograms of spent uranium fuel- te submarine is feared to be affecting local fis
populations around te mout of te 5urmansk D?ord- !ere te 'essel lies% Te e>pedition follo!s a
2012 report from te 2or!egian /adiation Protection "utority detailing nuclear !aste in te :ara Sea-
including 1C sips containing nuclear !aste- t!o nuclear submarines- 14 nuclear reactors- @;4 pieces of
radioacti'e macinery and 1@-000 containers of radioacti'e !aste%
Researchers fro the %ni'ersity of Alaska Cairbanks ha'e briefed ,ATO delegates on Arctic security
challenges. " group of 20 elected officials from 14 2"TO member states tra'elled to te uni'ersity to be
briefed on an array of tecnological security concerns raised by key researcers in te region% Te primary
topic co'ered at te conference- !ic took place on te 4 September- related to te e>pansion of
sipping lanes in te "rctic due to melting ice% 8elegates !ere briefed on security concerns relating to te
en'ironmental impact of increased traffic in te region and te coordination callenges it raises%

Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www.bradburys.co.uk





Analysts: ,ris "bbott- 8erek ,rystal- /oger 5arsall- Oaura 0artmann- TancrTde Deuillade- 5atte!
,oulliard- ,laudia .agner- Sopie Taylor and /obert Tasker%
Open Briefing | 11
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