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M E M O R A N D U M
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: KEY FINDINGS CBS/NYT VIRGINIA SURVEY
DATE: SEPTEMBER 8, 2014
Background
The second wave of the 2014 CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Battleground Tracker was
released over the weekend. This memo looks at the Virginia Senate numbers.
Key Findings
1. Mark Warner is under 50% on the ballot, and with leaners, the incumbents lead is
down to 12 points.
Without leaners, Warner leads 49%-35% over Ed Gillespie. Being under 50% as a well-
known incumbent who has already spent millions of dollars trying to get his poll numbers
unstuck has got to be daunting for Warner.
With leaners, it is a 51%-39% race, which is competitive, given that the Gillespie
campaign did not start its media buy until after the poll started in the field.
2. Because the sample is so heavily Democratic, the race is actually likely closer than the
poll indicates.
The partisan make-up of the survey is 36% Democratic and just 26% Republican. In a
bad Republican year, 2012, the exit polls show the electorate as more Democratic than
Republican in the state by seven points. So, while 2012 was the best Democratic turnout
year since. . .well, ever, this survey argues that the electorate will be even more
Democratic than the presidential election turnout of two years ago.
If Democrats have a six point party ID advantage, Warners current lead would shrink to
ten points, 46%-36%, and just eight points with leaners (48%-40%).
Key Findings CBS/NYT Virginia Survey
September 8, 2014
page two
3. Gillespie already leads with Independents, and has significant growth potential among
Republicans.
Gillespie leads by three points with Independents, 40%-37%. With many Independents
knowing the incumbent and not wanting to vote for him, Warner is in trouble.
Warner has also maxed out with his base, getting 94% of Democrats. Meanwhile,
Gillespie, who has just begun his advertising and building name ID after a campaign
centered on fundraising, organization building, and retail campaigning, is leading 77%-
6% among Republicans. As he continues to build ID, Gillespies support will strengthen
among Republicans, further closing the gap.
This race is rapidly becoming competitive.