INTERPRETACION DE DATOS EN EL MODELO

CROWLEY- KITZES
Tabla de datos:

0.5
1
2
3
3.5
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

3779.19
3539.24
3489.26
3449.26
3367.85
3306.79
3275.3
3234.31
3175.9
3096.84
3099.35
2993.16

0.11
0.21
0.42
0.64
0.74
0.85
1.06
1.27
1.48
1.7
1.91
2.12

4.01
7.5
14.62
21.94
24.99
28.04
34.72
41.14
46.86
52.52
58.18
63.59

Graficas:

70
60
50
40

I.

T= 160 C
%
6.3
11.8
23
34.5
39.3
44.1
54.4
64.7
73.7
82.6
91.5
99.9

30
20
10
0
0

0.5

1.5

2.5


4000
3500
3000

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

0.5

1.5

2.5

4000
3500
3000

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

II.

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ajuste al modelo CROWLEY-KITZES:

Modelo de Crowley Kitzes:

*
Parmetros:

70

Cambiando las variables:

El modelo resulta:

Sea los valores estimados por el modelo:

La funcin objetivo est dada por:

Reemplazando:
(

Derivando para cada uno de los parmetros:

+)

 Programa en Polymath:
f(AL) =2*(Y1-((X1*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X1*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))))+(((X1*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y2((X2*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X2*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))))+(((X2*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y3((X3*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X3*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))))+(((X3*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y4((X4*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X4*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))))+(((X4*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y5((X5*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X5*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))))+(((X5*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y6((X6*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X6*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))))+(((X6*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y7((X7*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X7*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))))+(((X7*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y8((X8*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X8*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))))+(((X8*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y9((X9*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X9*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))/(MU*(1
.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))))+(((X9*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y10((X10*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X10*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))/(M
U*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))))+(((X10*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y
11-((X11*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X11*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))/(M
U*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))))+(((X11*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))^2))))+2*(Y
12-((X12*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))))*(((X12*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))/(M
U*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))))+(((X12*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))^2))))

f(C) =2*(Y1-((X1*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X1^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X1)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X1^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X1)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y2-((X2*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X2^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X2)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X2^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X2)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y3-((X3*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X3^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X3)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X3^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X3)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y4-((X4*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X4^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X4)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X4^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X4)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y5-((X5*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X5^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X5)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X5^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X5)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y6-((X6*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X6^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X6)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X6^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X6)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y7-((X7*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X7^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X7)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X7^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X7)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y8-((X8*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X8^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X8)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X8^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X8)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y9-((X9*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X9^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2
))^2))/MU*((C*X9)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X9^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*X9)^
(0.8))))+2*(Y10-((X10*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X10^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X10
)^0.2))^2))/MU*((C*X10)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X10^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*
X10)^(0.8))))+2*(Y11-((X11*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X11^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X11
)^0.2))^2))/MU*((C*X11)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X11^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*
X11)^(0.8))))+2*(Y12-((X12*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))))*(((0.6*(X12^(2))*AL*((1+((C*X12
)^0.2))^2))/MU*((C*X12)^(0.8))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))))+((0.6*(X12^(2))*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))*AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^2))/(MU*((1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))^2)*((C*
X12)^(0.8))))

f(MU) =2*(Y1-((X1*(1.2-AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))))*((X1*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X1)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y2-((X2*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))))*((X2*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X2)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y3-((X3*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))))*((X3*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X3)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y4-((X4*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))))*((X4*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X4)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y5-((X5*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))))*((X5*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X5)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y6-((X6*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))))*((X6*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X6)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y7-((X7*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))))*((X7*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X7)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y8-((X8*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))))*((X8*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X8)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y9-((X9*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))))*((X9*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X9)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y10-((X10*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))))*((X10*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X10)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y11-((X11*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))))*((X11*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X11)^0.2))^3))))+2*(Y12-((X12*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))/(MU*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))))*((X12*(1.2AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3)))/((MU^(2))*(1.2+AL*((1+((C*X12)^0.2))^3))))
MU(0) = 2800
AL(0) = 0.5
C(0) = 1.5
X1 = 4.01
X2 = 7.5
X3 = 14.62
X4 = 21.94
X5 = 24.99
X6 = 28.04
X7 = 34.72
X8 = 41.14
X9 = 46.86
X10 = 52.52
X11 = 58.18
X12 = 63.59
Y1 = 0.11
Y2 = 0.21
Y3 = 0.42
Y4 = 0.64
Y5 = 0.74
Y6 = 0.85
Y7 = 1.06
Y8 = 1.27
Y9 = 1.48
Y10 = 1.7
Y11 = 1.91
Y12 = 2.12

Observacin:
Las soluciones del sistema de ecuaciones no lineales no convergen.