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M E M O R A N D U M
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: QUINNIPIAC STATEWIDE SURVEY SHOWS ED GILLESPIE
CLOSING TO SINGLE DIGITS
DATE: SEPTEMBER 25, 2014
This is what it looks like when a wave builds. After starting out the race down by 22 points, Ed
Gillespie has closed the U.S. Senate race in Virginia to single digits.

A Quinnipiac University statewide survey in Virginia released this morning showed the race has
tightened to a 39%-48% deficit for Ed against Mark Warner.
Further encouraging news is that Warner has maxed out with his political base, leading 94%-1%
among Democrats. Ed leads 78%-15% among Republicans, which means he has further room to
grow among his base. Having been outspent 3-to-1 up until now, the Gillespie for Senate
campaign has just begun today running ads in the important (and expensive) D.C. market, which
is likely to impact the numbers further.
Also important is that Ed leads 43%-41% among Independents. For Warner to be polling just
41% among Independents as an incumbent underscores the impact of the worsening political
environment for Democrats like him. In his last re-election of 2008, Warner won Independents
68% to 30%. For those who are bad at math, 41% is much worse than 68%!
Our polling for the campaign shows that Warners 97% voting record with Obama is energizing
to Republicans and anathema to Independents.
The last time there was a midterm Senate election in a Presidents second term in Virginia,
public polling in early October showed George Allen up 48%-37% on J ames Webb (the macaca
comment came August 11
th
, so the controversy did NOT come after the aforementioned survey).
The 2006 Senate race shows there is plenty of time in a wave election for a challenger to beat a
once popular former Governor turned Senate incumbent in Virginia.
Quinnipiac polling has been on the mark in Virginia. In 2012 their final poll in late October had
Barack Obamas lead at two points in a state he won by 3.88%.