1

2010
2

02.01.2010
US Market Jan 2010
US market bc vo nm mi vi mt ci rt tht mnh vo ngy trading cui cng ca nm.
L do chnh vn l ng USD. S kin no lm cho ng USD t nhin tri dy v i ln kh
nhanh hin gi cha r. Nu ni l the FED th khng chc lm. Ngay c vo bui hp cht
ca 2009 the FED vn mt mc tuyn b l h vn theo ui chnh sch easy money cho n
khi kinh t tht s phc hi. Cn vic h tuyn b khng mua thm nhng agency debts th
l chuyn ri. In fact, h tuyn b s vic ny vo thng 9, v lc y the USD vn cn in a
strong down trend.





Tuy nhin, theo ci nhn ring ca ti hin ti th nu nhn ngc li thi im USD bt u i
ln tm im so snh th s thy rng thi gian m USD bt u ln l cui thng 11, u
thng 12. Trc chng 1 tun, vo ngy l Thanksgiving ca M th s kin Dubai bng
n. Nh c ni ti y mt vi ln. l trong th trng ti chnh khi c mt cn bo ti
chnh, tin t th ngi ta chy vo USD tr. Cho nn nu lin kt hai s vic ny li thnh
1 th c th ni rng world market trong thi gian 1 thng qua ang trong giai on chuyn
mnh. Hay chnh xc hn rng market sentiment ang thay i. V s thay i hin hin
rt r qua ci strength in the USD. Nhn ci chart ca USD pha trn t hn ai cng thy rng
y khng phi l mt formation mang nt ca mt dead-cat bounce, m l mt trend reversal.
Dubai world s thnh mt cn bo ti chnh hay khng th cha ai dm khng nh, nhng n
khuy ln mt ln sng nghi ng trong gii fixed-income trading trn world market, t
bit l trong nhng fixed income ca cc quc gia m ngi ta gi chung l soveign fund.
3

Fund trong ting Anh mang nhiu ngha. Thng thng th c ngha l tin (money).
Nhng trn phng din u t th ch FUND thng mang ting ca fixed income, hay cn
gi l bond.

Theo ti ngh th nm 2010, the name of the game s l Soveign Fund Default. Trn th gii
hin ti c rt nhiu quc gia m tng s n ca h chim i mt phn rt ln ca con s tng
sn lng quc gia, national GDP. Ngi M mang ting l k thiu n nhiu nht. Cu ni
ni ny ng ch khng sai nu tnh theo tng s tin. Nhng nu tnh theo s % ca national
GDP th con s ny kh khim tn. Hnh nh l khong 5%. S kin the USD rt te tua
nguyn nm 2009 l v ngi ta ang factor vo vin nh ca Hyperinflation. Nhng s vic
ngy cng tr nn xa vi. Nhiu ngi cn i xa hn tin on rng China s ln ngi.
Nhng s vic cng ch l "pie in the sky." Gn y nht c mt s quc gia ti u Chu
ang b cc rating agencies nh SP, Moody's, Fitch hm he h im tn dng. Hu ht cc
quc gia u c dnh lu t nhiu n v Dubai world. Trong cc quc gia y, Greece
(khng bit ting Vit gi l g) l quc gia yu nht v b downgraded t AAA- xung
BBB+. K n l Spain v Italy. Mt iu cn ni r l khng phi Dubai tht s "shake the
world," qua s vic h default, nhng h l ngi chm ngi cho s vic ny. Kinh t th gii
suy thoi tng qut t cui nm 2008 n nguyn nm 2009 dn n vic stimulus packages
ca hu ht cc quc gia trn th gii m ngay c China cng khng trnh khi. V khi trn
cng v ca mt quc gia, ai chi tin nhiu hn s tin thu v (thu) th c ngha rng ci
balance sheet ca quc gia "in the red." V nu quc gia ang c n (soveign debts) v
li b "in the red" th hin nhin rng ci st xut default trn s n s tng t nhiu. l
l do chnh ca vic downgrading t cc rating agencies. Ch khng phi n gin l v
Dubai, nhng Dubai l pht sng khi u cho vic ny. N l a "wake up call" cho cc quc
gia gia hai ln ranh default or not.


(y l hnh nh cc quc gia c th b nn trong 2010. Source: The Economist)

T s kin Greece b downgrade ngi ta nhn sang cc quc gia ln cn nh Spain v Italy.
y l hai trong s 9 quc gia thuc khi Eurozone c xem l yu nht. L thnh vin ca
khi Eurozone nn h xi ng Euro cho h thng tin t ca quc gia. H cng pht hnh
bonds nh bao nhiu ngi khc. Nhng hin ti vi nn kinh t suy thoi v l cc thnh
vin yu nht trn phng din ti chnh. Cu hi nhiu ngi hin gi ang mun bit, hay
chnh xc hn l s n s xy ra, l nu mt mai Spain or Italy default trn s n y th khi
Euro s ra sao, hay s tnh nh th no? ng Euro v m ang b hit trn currency market
so vi ng USD l th. C th ni rng nu nm 2009, USD l tm thm tri chn trong
currency market th 2010 ng Euro c th thay th n. Theo hip c ca khi ny th khi
4

mt thnh vin trong khi b nn (th d nh default trn bonds) th cc thnh vin khc trong
khi khng c gip (source: the Economist). Thng thng th khi mt quc gia m lt v
v th nh th l v hng ha bn khng c. Hng ha bn khng c v nhiu l do. C
th l v kinh t th gii suy thoi nn "ai cng ngho" v khng mua nhiu nh trc, hay l
v gi thnh ca mn hng mnh cao qu nn kh bn. Trong trng hp chiu thc cht
v rt l drastic trong kinh t l PH GI NG TIN bn x. Nhng trong trng hp
ny th lm sao m ph gi khi ng tin l ng tin chung? V th, c th ni l nu nm
2009 l nm th thm ca USD th sang nm 2010 ng EUR c th l vt thay th n.




Thay th n l v kinh t US c phn kh quan hn trc nhiu. Mc du USD tng mnh (4%
trong thng 12), nhng US equity market vn ng yn. US bond yield tng kh mnh v vin
nh the FED s chm dt chng trnh Easy $$$ vo ma xun 2010. Ni chung th US
equity market c rt nhiu headwind pha trc nhng, tr ngy trading cui cng ca nm,
n vn ng vng. Traders ang i trn si giy thng cng cng gia hai lc Macro-
economy ca mt strong $$$ v mt Fundamentally Improved US econ. Lc no s thng
trong 2010 th cha ai bit, nhng nu nhn ngc dng lch s on tng lai th nm
1994-1995 cng tng t nh th. V ch s SP 500 % return cho 1995 l 35% (yes...this isn't
a typo), mt trong nhng con s % return cao nht trong 50 nm lch s cn i ca US
market. 2010 c c nh th khng th khng bit, nhng nu phi bet rng LONG or
SHORT th ti s take the LONG side. Long ci g? Cu tr li l techstocks. Sau 10 nm
nm yn k t ngy the tech bubble ca nm 2000 hu ht cc techs hin ti gn nh "v
5

nhim" vi nhng problems m h thng banking ang gp phi. C th ni rng trong nhng
macro sectors mnh nht ca US econ hin thi l techs. V techs th rt sensitive w/ econ
growth. Nu tht s US econ pht trin trong 2010 th a bet in techs is almost a sure win.




With that in mind, Happy New Year to All...
Originally Posted by GLD
Cm n BC nhiu . Vy nm 2010 s l nm thng hoa ca US market th cn phn cn li
(EU, Asia..) lch s nm 94 -95 n din ra th no ???

Ti khng c nh Asian market v European lc ra sao. 15-16 nm ri bc ui. Hi ti
rt l g, c US bond futures cn ln xn. Nhng ti nh rt k s vic USDJPY reversal.
Lc y cp tin ny khong 82-85 th phi, v t n ln lun. US equity cng th. l
khi u cho giai on vng son ca US techstocks mi cho n nm 2000. Mt iu m ti
hc c t market l: ci g khng ng nht thng l ci d xy ra nht. Hin gi ngi ta
t ai n techstocks. Mt s ngi cn m mng the real estate market s come back mt
t. Ci li suy lun ny cng ging nh my ch tech traders sau nm 2000. H mong
techstocks hi sinh h chy. Nhng khi market set a trap ri th con mi kh chy lm.
Ngc li, dng tin n li chy sang 1 th m mnh khng ng nht. Ti nhn quanh th
trng hin ti khng thy vt g kh d cho the smart $$ chy vo. T real estate (st xut
thp nht) cho n commodiites nh copper, oil, or gold. Tt c u c a historic run ri. A
repeat kh xy ra lm. Ngc li smart $$ thng kim mt ci g T RISKY NHT, ch
khng phi ci s c % return cao nht m chy vo. CI T RISKY NHT l ci bc c th
o c (a quantifiable subject); cn ci s c % return cao nht ch l mt tin on. Mt s
kin khng th o c qua bt c metrics no. V th, st xut thnh cng trong techs NU
US econ kh hn s cao so vi cc th khc.
6

Hm nay, Jan 4, 2010, ch s Nasdaq ng @ 2.3K; bc c bit 10 nm v trc n bao nhiu khng?
5.2K . T 5200 n xung cn khong 1.1K trong vng chng 2 nm. Market index ny mt i
chng 4K im trong vng 2 nm, or 80% from the peak. y khng phi l mt index nh xu nh
VNI ch c vi trm stocks. y l mt super index vi s lng stocks t g cng 10K cng ty tr ln,
vi c trm sub-indices khc nhau. Bc ni t 2003-2008 n ln. Nhng bc c thy n ln bao nhiu
khng? Nu ly cao im ca 2008 l @ 2.6K i nh. Vy coi nh index tng hn 2X trong thi
gian 5 nm t vc su ca 1.1K ng khng? 80% hair cut from the top and 100% return from the
bottom isn't that much. Bc hiu khng? Bc c 5 ng, mt i 4 ng. Cn li 1 ng thui. 5 nm sau
1 ng bin thnh 2 ng. Bc cm thy nh th no? Don't you feel like sh*t? Sure do. Nasdaq c
3 sectors chnh: Semiconductor, Banking & Biotechs. Trong 3 ch , semi l ln nht. Ln hn hai
ch kia gom li. Sau ci bear market ca 2K, semi coi nh cht. Ci m bc thy Nasdaq ln t 1.1K
n 2.3K ca 2008 l do Banking v Biotechs lm ra. Nhng v khng c Semi nn Nasdaq ch l
mc 2.5 K thui. Trong Semiconductor super sub-index ny n c chia ra t g cng 50 sector
indices khc na. My ch ny hp li y Semiconductor i ln vo nm 2K. Khi market crashed 10
nm trc th ti n cht lun v ti gi cha hi sinh ni. Cn v 2008/09 va qua l do banking cht
nn Nasdaq mi rt tr v retest im 1.1K c. Nu k rt 2008/09 va qua m ti Semi rt na th bi
gi Nasdaq chc ngang vi VNI ri.

Bc nhn ci chart di y ri ni cho ti bit y l a Bull hay Bear market vy?


Ti u c m n n 10 nm u. iu ti mun ni khi li n ln y l khi market ang trong giai
on chuyn mnh t mt th ny sang th khc th nhng mn hng bn ngoi trong cc k boring li
l nhng mn m smart $$$ n chy vo t t. Cch y hn 10 nm khi ti techs cn lm ma lm
gi trn Wall Street, th phong tro chng ht thuc l M tng cao. Song song vi phong tro l
vic kin tha cc cng ty thuc l. M c 1 cng ty lm thuc l rt ni ting gi l Phillips Morris.
y l 1 Dow component loi nng k, c IBM y. Trong hng ti c 1 thng M n xi ti bn
techs i mua Phillips Morris i. Ti ngh thng in nng . Nhng n i mua. Ngy ta tuyn b
co trng ca Phillip Morris th ngy stock li ln. Thng M ht vn ca n vo MO
(symbol ca Phillips Morris). Sau l techs rt th thm. US market v cng cht theo. Va cht
xong, mi ngoai ngoai ngc u ln th b thng Q Bin Laden n dn thm c 9/11 na. Th l xong.
Gy gnh ht. T n gi, i bng u thnh se s ht. Cn thng M th n khi cn i lm
na. Mn c 9/11 n dng lun. Ti nghim ra c bi hc nn ang bet on techs big time thui...
Ti u c bit ti sao n mua. Ch bit hm n vo vn phng ca ti phn tch tm lum t la v
MO. Xong ri n kt lun rng MO s khng cht, v s tin bi thng (punitive damage) c ln n
u cng khng sao. Sau th n i mua MO. Ci chuyn MO l thng thui nu bc tnh theo s
tin li v MO vn rt ln t n gi. Cho nn khi n rt v cn khong 9-10 lc th cng
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ging nh bi gi Citibank rt v 3 ng thui. No Star Where M. N khng c lm nhng thng m
techs nh ti khoi lm. MO hi trade rt bun ng so vi techs.

Cha ht u trc chng 2 nm, trong hng ti c mn 1 thng i Hn lm analyst. Kh ni ci
thng ny li khng ni ting Anh rnh. Ngn ng i Hn nghe rt nng. Cho nn khi n ni ti ch
hiu n ni ci g. Trong hng ch c ti v n l Chu nn n eo theo ti mit. Ti th li ch nghe
lm bm khi n ni. Nhng thng ny li gii v techs bo. Lc y Yahoo mi ra IPO, gi chng
40/share. Nu cng ty ca bc l lead IPO (ngha l cng ty chnh dn u trong vic IPO) th cng ty
c thng cho nhn vin c quyn mua mt s (hnh nh l 1K shares ty theo chc v). N xi ti
mua Yahoo. Ti nghe ci tn Yahoo hi qui qui nn ti chn ch. Nu ti nghe li n m i 1K
share YHOO t lc nguyn thy cho n 2 nm sau, ti thnh triu ph ri. Ch cn 1K shares thui, or
40K. Trong vng hai nm, gi nguyn thy ca Yahoo ln t 40 n 1K. Xong Yahoo th Ebay ra IPO.
N li xi na. Lc y ti li tic Yahoo nn khng mua Ebay. Thng cng bay mt. Cui cng ti
hc khn nn khi thng ICGE ra ti chp lin. IPO price ca n l 28. Trading l 40. 1 thng sau mi
c margin IPO th n 70 ri. Ti max out margin, ride that baby to the moon. Stock split lia la. Tin
v nh nc. Thu y bc c mua xong, b i ly ly c ph l v c t 5 n 10K, ty theo stocks.
ICGE & CMGI l hai thng hot nht thi . Ti cashed out lc n 450 (split-adjusted), va tin
ci v, mua nh, xy s nghip. Ai ng n split la la thm my pht na v bc ln n 4200 (split
adjusted). Ngha l ti ch n c 1/10 ca n thui. Cho by gi ti nhn li techs ti nh ngy xa
lm. Hihihhii...ti n m move pht ny na ti khng st 1 con u . M ch cn ti n run 1/10
khi xa thui l ti retire lin... . 15 nm trn Wall Street c nhiu war stories lm bc ui.
Khi no techs chy th ti khng bit, nhng hin gi trn US market banking chy rt mnh. Bc xem
li cc big banks nh JPM, BAC, COF, BCS, WFC hu nh khng cch im 52-week high bao
nhiu. Cc banking stocks ny hit 52-week high vo thng 10/09, consolidated gn 3 thng. Nhng ch
cn chng 1 tun trading ca thng 1/10 l mt s ln ang lm le 1) retesting or 2) breaking out. L
do m banking stocks hin ang breaking out l VIN NH ca kinh t s kh hn trong 2010. Hm
qua, ch s NFP ra kh t (-85K vs. +4). Market c rt t vo lc u nhng recover li ht trong ngy.
Smart $$$ moved in at the last minute of the trading day. Cc hot banking stocks nh JPM recover v
cn cng thm vi chc cents vo cui ngy. l bullish sentiment a. Nu market tht s mnh th
bc s thy ti techs i sau. V th ngi ta gi l sector rotation trong market. Trong US econ hin
ti, khi n recover th thng l techs v banking i u.
Originally Posted by unistock
my bi trc anh VC phn tch th kh nng Tech s chy mnh nu kinh t thc s hi phc
v anh ni n t tng in cung ca nhm dot.com trc kia. Nhng theo em ngh th c
th thi im lc khc hin nay. Khi ti dot.com c xem l k ngh mi nn h cng
ty no c ci tn .com l u thnh hng hot ht. Nhng by gi tt c u bnh thng ht
ri. Cho nn nu c quay li 1 t tng na ca ti Tech th em ngh phi l 1 ci g mi
hn ch khng phi l nhm Tech trc kia na, chng hn nh thi gian gn y l my
cng ty cng ngh nano g ...

ng ri. Ci s c, nhng trong giai on khi u th market cha c Leadership cho
nn smart $$$ ch vo cc stocks gi l value thui. L do m h vo l v cc cng ty
offer SECURITY & GROWTH. Security l v cc cng ty khng c n. Ton cash thui.
Growth l nu kinh t ln th n s ln theo. Giai on ny bc s thy cc stocks gi < 5 ng
or may be just 1, 2 bucks t nhin tng gp vi ln. Sau khi market c momentum ri th
lc ngi ta mi kim ci k ngh tht s cho ci market hin ti. Thnh ra, nu bc bet
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big time vo techs nh ti, bc chn cc cng ty w/ no debts. Vo m n. i n tng 5, 3
ln kim vn m chi cho the next hot sector. Ch ti u c i mua stocks w/ 1 or 2 bucks
hin ti, ri mong n v li ci thi 1, 2K ca nm 2000.
13.01.2010
Market xung, nht l ti banking, l v ci lo Obama c chn. 1 nm v trc lo cho nh banks
mn tin, gi l tin TARP. Hu ht bi gi cc nh banks u tr li ht. T nht trong m l C.
Ngay c C cng lm le i tr li, cn mua thm li warranty ca chnh cng ty. Ni cch khc l th
ny, banking industry bi gi c th ng trn i chn h c ri. V the Taxpayers cng c li trong
v TARP $$$ ca mt nm v trc. T nhin bi gi lo i NH THU tin li ca nh bank
mt mc cao kinh khng (bao nhiu th ti khng r). Lo vin c l cc nh banks qu li (bc no
rnh th check ci credit card % rate li l bit lin nh. Gn 30% y) trong khi bn ngoi th kinh t
cha pht trin. Thm thng ngn sch qu nng nn cn nh thu cao. Ngoi vic nh thu vo tin
li, lo cn hm he nh lun vo tin Investment Return ca tt c. Ni chung rng lo mun "ly
tin nh giu em cho nh ngho" (ti Democrates no ch vy). Anyway, banking industry as a
whole, va ngp ngp c t th li b ci v gi l BANKING TAX ang lm le bn ci Thng
Vin. Ti khng bit n c pass khng, nhng l ci risk trong banking hin thi. Ngoi ra, k t
lc u nm n gi, ti banks bn ln nh diu thnh ra nhiu khi n cng mn c hi ny m
correct cht xu. Bao nhiu th cha r. Nhng c th ni t g cng ht tun ny. Cn vic th 2 l
chuyn China. China ti qua tng mc reserve trong banking ln (ging nh the FED tng phn li)
gim mc growth trong kinh t. S kin ny lm cho ng JPY ln cao trong currency market.
Nhng Wall Street pros hin gi nhn China vi cp mt hi nghi ng. H bt u nh du hi v con
s growth % m China tuyn b hng nm. Nm no yu th con chu bc Mao ni l 6%. Nm no
kh th c 9%-10% m chi sut. Vi nm u th ngi ta cn tin, nht l trong mt th trng bnh
yn ca d vng. Nhng hin ti con s 9% l mt con s kh tin. Hi cui tun trn tun bo New
York Times, trong phn bnh lun c mt ch Wall Street shorter (dn chuyn nh short) ln ting
v hin tng China COOK THE BOOK. ng ta cho bit rng nhng con s v China dng nh
khng tht. y khng phi l li ni sung. S ph ny lm homeworks tht k, v cng l ngi
nh sp Enron ca 10 nm v trc. Thnh ra, ng ny tuyn b rng China c th the next bubble.
Mt Dubai vi cng 1000 hn. y l cu quote ca ng ta trn t bo New York Times. Market
v th hi shaky hm nay.
15.01.10
US market hm nay rt te tua v earnings ca JPM v s kin m China ang tng phn li gim
bt mc pht trin trong kinh t. Tin China tng phn li ra cng vi ngy ri, ch khng phi mi
y. Nh c ni bn trn, Wall Street cng ngy cng c nhiu nghi ng v s pht trin ca China,
hay chnh xc hn l cch tnh s sch ca China. Hin gi th rt t ngi dm cng khai ln ting,
ngoi tr mt ngi tn Chanos (spelling). Dubai default ngi ta xem thng. China m cook the
book th khng thng t no. Tuy nhin, s kin ny cn rt xa vi. Hu ht ngi ta cha c chng
c hn hi. Phn ln Wall Street investors u xem l tin git gn nhiu hn. Market ln k t u
nm cho n nay. Tuy khng nhiu nhng c vi chc im mi ngy. u ng lu l mc du n
c xung vo lc m ca, nhng cui gi th n trim off the majority of the loss. Nu khng th cng
vi hm sau. Index c t t treading higher...bit by bit....day by day. V earnings ca JPM v cu
chuyn China tng phn li cho nn risky assets nh stocks v commodities hin ang sell off t.
Trong US market th hai sectors hot nht k t gia thng 12/09 cho n hin ti l banking v techs
th c hai ang trong tnh trng correction. Ti khng ngh ci correction ny s ko di. y l giai
on khi u cho ma earnings ca Q4/09. Nu market khng ln v earning run th c l sau . V
9

earnings thng xy ra 1) trc khi or 2) sau khi. Nu n xy ra TRC KHI ma earnings bt u
th l v market expectation is high. Cn n xy ra SAU KHI ma earnings xong th l v earning
surprise. Ma earnings k ny banking as a sector khng surprise market nh cc ma khc. L do l
ht TARP $$$ ri. Th nh, commercial real estate cn kh yu v kinh t vn cha phc hi. Prime
borrowers (nhng ngi c im tn dng tht cao) li l nhng ngi ang default nhiu nht hin
ti. C l v ngi ta mt job nn h default. Ngoi ra, nm nay s l nm m cc Option Arms Loan
s reset nu ai c mn tin loan loi ny lc 2005. y l giai on default cui cng trong US
residential mortgage, v c l l loi nng cn nht (nhiu tin nht). V hng ngi ny chi ton nh
sang, ch khng phi loi nh r nh k 2008/09 va qua.
22.01.10
y l hai ci FEAR MEASUREMENT trong US market (VIX) v world market. Hnh VIX cho thy
selling s c follow through trong nay mai v traders got caught by surprise. Sell off k l hu ht l do
lo Obama m ra. Wall Street hin gi ang rt confused vi chnh sch ca Lo. Chnh sch ng
Dn Ch ca M khng bao gi friendly w/ big business. Obama li l ngi thin t nn chnh quyn
lun c ci nhn "bt bnh" thng v nhng earnings ca cc big banks. V th Obama i gim bt
mc PROP trade trn Wall Street, t bit l cc big banks nh C, BAC, JPM, MS. Hu ht cc big
banks u sng bng trading. Lp lun gim bt trading l cc nh banks ny dng tin TARP nh
l tin cha speculate. . ca Obama l th ny. Chnh ph ly tin thu ra gip cc nh banks,
v hy vng rng cc nh banks y s d di trong vic vay mn, hu cu kinh t. Tuy nhin, chnh
ph khng ni r l BT BUC phi cho vay. Quyn quyt nh vay mn do nh banks quyt
nh. Wall Street traders vc s tin "cha" y i trade tng earnings v boost stock share. Sau hn
1 nm, unemployment vn cn hover around 10%, nhng nu nhn li earnings ca cc i cng ty
thuc ngnh banking th tng rt cao, khng thua thi k trc khng hong. Cu hi l ti sao cc
cng ty lm c vy? Well...nu ti nhn tin loan (TARP) t chnh ph vi 0% interest, v ti li
khng cho ai mn ht. L do v s mt thm tin. Vc tin ti i trade, leverage it up chng 10:1
thay v 30 or 50:1 nh xa th ti vn li bo. Obama vin l do nn clamp down on prop trades.


Anyway y l hai bc hnh ca Market FEAR.


10



y l hnh ci fear trong market hin ti. im xoay chiu thng l > 30.



Eurodollar futures hin ang trade live trn overnight market ti Chu hin ti cho thy market tht
s cha c th thm nh con s n rt hi sng ny.
11

Obama ngy cng ln su trong ci rating. Dn M ht cn tin nhiu vo nhng g Obama ha. Hm
qua tiu bang Massachussetts va bu mt ng Thng Ngh S ca ng CH vo chic gh ca ng
Edward Kennedy. V cuc bu c ny thnh ra nguyn ci chng trnh Healthcare reform g ca
Obama khng thnh cng. Hi sng ny b Nancy Pelosi (Speaker of the House) tuyn b rng
Thng Vin khng thng qua vn healthcare. Basically, it's a dead duck. Obama mun ly li ci
rating cho nn qunh tm lum. Lo bit ngi dn ang ght Wall Street v trong khi mc tht
nghip mc 10%, dn tnh th kh. Nhng Wall Street bankers/traders vn n bonus u u.
Goldman Sachs vn tung tin i mua trading talents c chc triu. Hu ht cc nh banks u tr ht
tin TARP li cho chnh ph nn chnh ph khng th sai bo h nh trc, nht l v vic lng
bng v bonus. Obama khng hiu rng y l capital market, v capital market lun cn talents.
Talents on Wall Street phi c tr bng tin. Khng tin th khng ai chi. Cho nn khi cc nh
banks thot khi vng tay chnh ph th lo li d tr i nh thu trn bonus. Mt hnh ng c
xem l da vo mc ch chnh tr hn l cn thit. l vic xy ra hi u tun. Sng ny Obama li
a ra kin v Prop trades. y l mt iu qui chiu khng th nghe c. Goldman Sach CFO,
tuy khng dm ni thng li vi TT, lin ln ting nh chnh l Prop trades khng c lin quan g n
v credit crisis ca 2008. l do LENDING PRACTICE m ra, ch khng phi do PROP
TRADING.

Ni tht ra ch TT M khng c quyn bao nhiu u. Mun ra lut th cn phi qua Quc Hi, ci
qua ci li my thng Tri nhiu khi cng ch i u. Nhng market th lc no cng vy. Mi nghe
tin nn n c phn ng mnh vy thui. China cng th. Vi tun sau b con qun ht h. The Economy
l trn ht. Nu kinh t ang t t trn pht trin th nhng g ang xy ra hin ti s mau chng
chm vo qun lng trong vng vi tun thui. I'm buying on dips.
22.01.10
Nn kinh t chao o KHNG PHI v trading m ra. Ci v credit crisis l t
LENDING. M khi ni v lending th ti cng khng phi 100% l Wall Street. Nm 2006 khi
ln sng mua nh M ln cao, CHNH MY CHA NGI TI QUC HI triu tp cc
CEO ca cc nh banks ln ln Washington cht vn, hch hi ti sao cc nh banks y
KHNG NI LNG lut l cho vay NHIU NGI M c th mua c nh? M,
nim hnh din ca ngi dn l mua c ci nh. C th ni rng mt s % ln ca ngi
dn M SUT I khng dnh dm ni mua c ci nh. V th, trong x hi M c
danh t gi l THE AMERICAN DREAM, hay l gic m ca ngi M. The American
Dream l nim m c c c cn nh. M, ngi da en v ngi M thng l thnh
phn ngho trong x hi, nhng l mt thnh phn UM SM nht. ng cht l n nm v ra
ni ngi ta k th. Mt s % rt ln ca hai sc dn ny khng mua ni ci nh sut c cuc
i. V th vo cc nm khi th trng nh ang bc, phong tro gip ngi mua nh ti
M tng rt cao. Ngh chnh tr ti M l ngh bit tt nc theo ma. Cho nn thi gian
hu ht cha no trn QH cng ca bi con c. Cha no cng lm nh mnh lo cho dn lm.
Thng en th min bn. Lc no m ming ra cng m ch thng da trng k th, cho nn gi
ngi da en khng c nh nhiu nh ngi da trng. Thng trng v mun dnh phiu nn t
ra rt hung hn trong vic i hi cc nh banks ni lng vic cho ngi ngho mua nh. Anh
ngh ci subprime bt u t u? C phi n bt u t my cha ni ny khng? Ni cch
khc l QH bt n xanh, v nu em my cha ln cn th cng khng nh u nh. Ti
cn nh rt r hnh nh TT Bush c din vn hng nm trong ci gi l STATE OF THE
UNION khoe rng trong giai on hin ti l giai on m s % ngi dn M lm ch c
cn nh ca mnh cao nht. Bush lc ang sa ly vo cuc chin Iraq. Lnh M cht mi
thng c trm ngi, nn Bush cn mt bnh phong che ba ru d lun. Con s % ngi
M mua c nh cao nht lc l mt im son cho chnh quyn Bush. Nhng Bush qun
12

ni rng cng l giai on m ngi ta khai gian nhiu nht mua nh...!!!!

Fast forward 2 nm sau, cng chnh my cha TNS ca QH triu tp my ch CEO ln ct
vn, lm nh l h ch bit g c. Cha no cng ph o phi tay. Anh xem TV M, nh kim
dm ti mt ng lo gi l Frank Barney. y ch l mt dn biu ca ng Dn Ch, nhng
l mt ngi quyn hnh kinh khip ti QH Hoa K. V Barney l ngi nm chc Chairman
ca y ban trng coi th trng ti chnh, gi tt l the Finance committe. My nm trc,
chnh Barney v y ban ku cc nh banks ni lng lut l vay mn. Hai nm sau Barney
chi tnh l, tr mt ct vn ngi ta, lm nh ngi ta c tnh gt QH, gt chnh ph. Truyn
thng M rt t do, v rt mnh, khng b iu khin bi ai. Cho nn n quay v chiu li ht.
Ngy QH M ct vn cc CEO ca cc nh banks th trc vi ting, n chiu li hnh nh
QH M ca 2, 3 nm v trc c gi so snh xa v nay. Tr chi chnh tr n ti nh th
. Tt c ch mun va lng ngi dn, kim phiu thui. V dn M l ci m con nt.
ng t l khc. Khc xong i nu o my cha QH kim ngi chm cho gin. Obama
cng th thui. Bi th my ch vit bo mi ni tot mng heo ra l Obama cn im vi
ngi dn. Thi gian c xem l honey moon ca 1 TT mi l 30 ngy. Ngi ta cho
Obama gn 6 thng. Xong ri n 1 nm. Rt cuc cng cha xong g c. Thm vo l ci
balance sheet ca the FED swelled up to 1.5 trillions. Li ti ai? Wall Street traders hay l
chnh sch ln xn ca Obama? Bi gi "gin c nn chm tht" kim chuyn vi Wall Street
ly lng dn thui. i hi khp Wall Street trading desks xem coi trong vng 10 nm tr li,
bao nhiu trading desks thua cn n tin ca chnh ph? Vn y u phi l Trading.
Obama lm g khng bit. M nu Obama khng phn bit c how the Street makes $$$ th
Timothy Geither u? Trn Washingtong c ai gn vi Wall Street bng the Treasury
Secretary? Ni trng ra l lo ch c chuyn g quan trng hn lm nn lm u th thui.

Ti li phi chu cp thm cho cc ch cc ch n nh. Cc ch khng dng tin ca ti
phc hi kinh t m li cn tip tc mang i nh bc. , ng rng tin trong tay cc ch,
cc ch lm th no sinh li nht th lm. Nu m cn lm mt tin na th c ti ln cc ch
cht c nt. Nhng nu nn kinh t n thc s hi phc th khng sao, ch n khng hi phc
c th cc ch bet nh th th ng l ri c ti v cc ch u cht. Vy nn, khi cc ch
ha vn ri th ti tch cc ch ra.

Tht ra lc trc ngoi Citibank ra, hu ht cc big I-banks nh JPM, MS, GS u khng cn
tin ca chnh ph, nhng b p ly. Anh hi Ken Lewis ca BAC th bit. The FED bt buc
h nhn tin, ri ct h lun. l ti sao khi c c hi chun. Khng ch no thm li 1
ngy, tr Citibank. Cc I-banks lc c t n xin chuyn thnh commercial banks c
th mn tin t the FED qua ci Discount Window, nhng c thui. Ch khng ai tht
s mn.
Ch no lm ngn hng th cm ci cho vay ly li thi. Cn ch no chuyn trade th ch
trade thi. Khng nh hng ln nhau. Trong trng hp no ti cng phi cu ci thng lm
ngn hng truyn thng. Sau ny ch trader no c cht th ch mnh ch y cht thi.

Cch ny c th lm c nu anh khng cn cnh tranh internationally. Nhng financial
market bi gi l 1 th gii khng c bin gii. Nh qu th lm sao anh cnh tranh vi ti
Nht, Trung Quc, v cc quc gia u Chu. Financial markets l mt v kh mnh khng
thua g xe tng ha tin u. Nh qu th sao anh chi li cc big firms ca cc quc gia khc,
nhng quc gia m chnh ph sn sng ng sau lng chng lng cho cc cng ty c tm
vc quc t ca h.

13

Nu anh ngh l nn kinh t ang t t pht trin th chn ngnh khc vi banking v trading
l xong. Nhng em ngh gi commodities phc hi nhanh hn c nn kinh t. Hu ht gi
commodities hin gi u cao bng mc nm 2008 l nm c lm pht cao.

Trading v nhn nh v trading n khc xa lm. Trading ging nh i sn vy . Khi anh
thy c 1 con th ang qu, st xut cht rt cao. Anh ch cn chy theo d n n cng, ch
khng thm rt con khc. V vy ngi ta mi gi trading l KILLER INSTINCT. Cn nu
anh ng loay hoay nhn vng vng, ci g thy cng tt c. Nguyn 1 n nai trc mt, con
no thy cng rt c th lc anh cha c tht s trade. Chnh xc l lc anh cha
bit i sn. V 1 n nai , khi anh rt, cha chc anh bt c 1 con. Anh cha bt c v
anh cha c Killer Instinct khi thy con mi. Anh cha phn bit c con th no qu vi st
xut cht rt cao.
25.01.10

Banking giao ng mnh v Obama. l l do th nht. L do th hai l ST XUT Bernanke c
b nhim cho nhim k th hai DNG NH khng chc chn lm. Obama sau v Healthcare
reform gi nh con th b thng. Cc ng vin ng Dn Ch khng cn h hi ng sau lng ng
h na. Republican th mun a Bernanke v li Princeton dy hc. Nhng ngi s thay th
Bernanke s l ai? Mt nhn vt v danh no s lm cho market thm ngn ngi. Tin n rng Paul
Volcker, c vn kinh t ca Obama, c th mun ra lm the FED chairman ln th nh. Xin m du
ngoc ni t v Volcker. Ngi ta thng nghe n Greenspan v gn 20 nm qua (87-2005).
Greenspan l hnh nh ca the FED. Greenspan's legacy li cho the FED hin ti rt ln. T nhng
cch thc dealing w/ Wall Street cho n cch thc iu khin th trng qua nhng phng thc va
n va Hin. Gi l n l nh th ny. Greenspan nhiu khi ch o or lo li market KHNG CN
THC S ra tay. Greenspan ch cn lo li ci MARKET SENTIMENT t mc tiu monetary
policy ca mnh. Bi th Greenspan mi c xem l huyn thoi vo nhng nm cui cng ca 90's,
u 2000. Greenspan l ngi tht s l ph thy ca US market. C th ni rng 90% market
participants hin ti u ln ln di Greenspan. Greenspan v i nh th, nhng vn ng sau mt
ngi trong lch s ca the FED. Ngi l Paul Volcker, c vn hin ti ca Obama. Nu ni theo
chuyn chng th y l mt "i ma u" ln nht ca the FED. y l ngi FED Chairman trc
Greenspan. S kin ng ta ng trc Greenspan v thi gian th khng c g t bit, nhng ng ta
chng t kh nng ca mnh trong giai on . Nu bc no hc v US FEDERAL RESERVE
BANK v giai on lm pht kinh khip ca cui thp nin 70's v u 80's th chc chn phi bit n
ngi ny. Sau khi giao the FED li cho Greenspan th ng ta "quy n" theo ng ngha danh t, v
ng ngha giang h lun. Ngha l trn thng trng t tr i th ci tn Paul Vocker cht. US
market tri qua nhiu thng trm k t ngy ng ta "qui n," nhng s kin Obama ca nm 2008 v
vin nh ca mt h thng ti chnh th gii sp , Obama mi ng ta v lm c vn. C th ni rng
Obama hn mi r c ng ta. Ch Tng Thng thng cha chc. Market ca 2009 bt giao ng
c l mt phn nh s xut hin ca ng ta.

Anyway, sau mt nm vi mt ci stimulus package khng l, Bernanke vn khng lm g c. H
thng ti chnh th gii c th thot khi nguy c sp , nhng ngi dn M cn jobs. H cn ci g
thc t hn ci nguy c sp ca h thng ti chnh th gii. Ngi ta ni "Obama is under the
gun." V khi TT M m under the gun th heads will roll. "Under the gun" & "Heads will roll" l hai
m t ca Wall Street m ch TT ang b p lc (under the gun) thay ngi (head will roll = x
14

trm or u ln lon lc or better known as MT JOB). Ngi ang or c th s mt job l Bernanke.
Theo h thng bu ca ca the FED th mc du c TT b nhim, nhng the FED chairman vn
phi qua s chp thun ca QH. Trong QH th c c hai phe: Dn Ch & Cng Ha. Phe CH khng
thch Bernanke t lu. Thm ch ng TNS tn Chris Dodd, ch tch uy bang ti chnh g ca
Thng Vin chnh thc ln ting ch bai Bernanke. y l mt hnh ng xem thng the FED
chairman. Cho nn nu Bernanke m c c b nhim thm nhim k th hai th ng ta cn s ng
h ca phe Dn Ch trong QH. Tuy nhin, ci ngh chnh tr l ci ngh ph thnh ch ch ai ph suy.
Obama ca 1 nm trc l mt Obama ca HY VNG (HOPE l chm ngn m Obama xi khi tranh
c). Obama ca 1 nm sau l mt Obama khc bit hon ton. Ci v healthcare va qua l mt tht
bi rt ln trong nhim k ca ng ta. V th, phe Dn Ch ti QH khng cn xem trng nhng kin
ca Obama na. Cho nn ngi ta ngh rng s c mt s TNS ca ng Dn Ch cha hn s b
phiu cho ng Bernanke vo nhim k th 2. Wall Street th lun nhn v the FED. Bernanke might
not be a Greenspan ha thn. Nhng t g ng ta cng gip gi vng c nn ti chnh th gii. By
gi nu ng i ri, ai s l ngi thay th? Nu ngi thay th ng l Paul Vocker th chc chn
market s rt thch. Ngc li, nu Obama li mt thng Q no v thay th th market s kh bnh yn.
Wall Street works on PERSONALITIES. And no personality is more important than that of the FED
Chairman. Market v th m giao ng mnh trong thi gian ny....
26.01.10
Nu ni v tm top & bottom qua phng thc tm l ca th trng th c th ni rng rt t phng
php no chnh xc hn ci ch s VIX ny. y l ch s c gi tt l FEAR INDEX trong US
market. N l ch s nguyn thy u tin. Sau ny v thy n kh chnh xc nn ngi ta sinh ra nhiu
ci khc, nhng vn da vo nguyn l c. Anyway, US market s khng xoay chiu cho n khi n
qua 30's or cao hn ci nh ca thng 11. Hm nay n pullback t. ch l a non-event day. Theo ti
ngh t y n cui tun n s clear ci ny trc khi mi vic xong xui. Buying signals in US
market ca 15 nm v trc, da theo ch s ny rt chnh xc. Nhng m hi ngi ta cha bit
nhiu v n so vi bi gi. Khi buying signal trong ch s ny xut hin ti s ch cho cc bc thy.




15



29.01.10
US GDP ca Q4 2009 tng ln 5.7%, mt con s kh cao k t nm 2003. Tuy nhin, US market ni
chung th vn cn b nng di s kin market correction qua hnh thc sector rotation ca hai
sectors mnh nht: Banking & Techs. Banking correction th va xong. Sau khi Obama c din vn
State of the Union th market discount s kin c l Obama s khng nng tay vi prop trading ti cc
banking instittution qua iu lut m Wall Street gi l Volcker's Rule. Ring v techs th c l ngi
ta sell on the news lock in the gains sau ci run up t thng 12 n nay. in hnh ca v sell off
trong techs hin ti l AAPL. Hm qua AAPL c gii thiu mt mn hng rt xn gi l Ipad. Traders
bid up the stocks trc khi IPAD c tung ra, nhng take profit trn stocks sau khi Steve Jobs c mt
conference vi cc nh bo gii thiu IPAD. US market hin gi ang trong mt correction nh, v
correction ang xy ra trong tech stocks. Vi mt ch s GDP nh th ny m market ch ln c
~70pts th l du hiu correction vn cn. Tun trc l bank stocks. Bi gi l techs. Who's next?
30.01.10
Oil v Gold hin ang in correction mode, nht l thng oil. Cn thng Gold chc l down for good
ri. So much for the 2K gold story hn. Khng bit ai cn nh nhng tin on ca 2K gold or even
5K gold khng huh? Nu ti on khng lm the next targe for gold is < 1K. Tuy nhin hin tnh
market by gi l: The name of the game now is EURO ZONE. Bc xem li bi vit hi u thng ny
ca ti, trong ti c ni r "tm thm ca currency market" trong thi gian hin ti l EUR. Vng
t hin ang giao ng mnh v Greece. Sau Greece hnh nh cn thm 3 ch na: Spain, Italy &
Portugal. Khi Euro dn u l c v Php ngoi ming th khng chu gip, nhng khng bit c
backdoor deal no khng. Greece th vn tuyn b l c kh nng tr n. Nhng investors nhn
Dubai so snh ri nh du hi: Really? Song song vi ci l earnings ca ti techs khng cao nh
mong c. Hu ht u beat estimates t nhiu, nhng ni chung th cha c ch no cc k sng lng.
Tuy nhin, anh 7 c nh con s GDP ny i nh. N s carry market rt xa sau khi correction xong.
USD cn ln cao na, ch khng xung u. Nm 2009 n i ngc chiu vi US equity market.
Nhng 2010 th c th n s i chung, min rng n ng i qu nhanh. Ti v nu n i chung or
song song th traders s dch l n ln v kinh t. Ngc li, nu n i qu nhanh th trades ngh n ln
v RATE HIKE. And that ain't good for the overall market.
09.02.10
Originally Posted by porsche
Mun gii quyt cc vn ny th phi ch thi gian thi ^^ Chin tranh ^^ C nhn thng
CHF l bit , n c tng o o l nguy him !

Bc ni ci g m lon co co ht vy? CHF tng so vi cp tin no? Tt c cc cp cross
trade u da vo 4 major pairs. CHF tng v cross trade. ch nu ni v major pairs th ch c
USDCHF tng thui. Khng phi l xxx/CHF rt. Tt c cc cp tin lin quan n USD u
rt v ngi ta ang unwind ci USD-carry trade ca nm ngoi. Hin tng "c m ngi
cng ng mt bn chic tu" m ti ni nm ngoi hin gi ang n n chy ngc v bn
kia (unwinding USD). Tuy n khng c d di nh cc ln trc v cc ngn hng trung ng
ca th gii cnh co nhiu ln. Nhng hin tng ny s cn ko di rt lu. World
market hin ti ang bullish on USD v hai nguyn nhn: US econ recovery (GDP) &
16

Unwinding of USD carry trade. l l do chnh. Ch ch phi War g nh cc bc ang suy
on.


Nhng chnh ti ni trong bi vit US market Jan 2010, bc c c li th s thy market
ang hin ra t t. Lc u ngi ta lo Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy. By gi ngi ta S ci
ny s bin thnh mt chui dy chuyn lan rng ra cc quc gia khc. Bi hc ca Asian
Crisis nm 97 cn hin hin . Asian Crisis ca 97 cn c mt tn khc, gi l ASIAN
CONTAGION. Contagion l danh t ca Y khoa, tm dch ra truyn nhim. i khi nh khi
bc c bnh cm, bc rt d ly cho ngi khc. Cc quc gia pht trin trn th gii ngy nay
ai cng sng nh vo DEBTS. Debts ca cc quc gia ny cng ging nh ngi i mn n
ti M, gi l consumer credit. Mc n ca tng ngi c xem l t nhiu iu da vo
s lng h lm c mi nm. Investors em concept ny ra o trn tm quc gia. H ly s
n quc gia ang thiu chia vo tng s GDP ra con s %. Ly con s % o vi con s
% lch s (historical %). Nu cao hn th c xem l nguy him v st xut default s tng.
Hai i bng ca th gii Sovereign Debts (US & UK) cng khng trnh khi nh lut ny.
Nhng "trong m m, thng cht lm vua" thnh ra investors tuy bit US & UK n cng
nhiu so vi historical %, h khng c s la chn no khc nn nh nhy vo US bonds
lnh nn. Hin tng US bond tng gi v international FEAR ny khng phi l ln u tin
trong lch s. Bi hc ca Russian Default nm 98 cn . V th hin thi ngi ta nhn cc
emerging markets vi cp mt rt e d. Ai c th tin on rng 13 nm v trc l Asian
crisis v hot FDI flow. 13 nm sau n C TH din ra ln na ti u Chu? On the day to
day trading basis, traders nhn ci long-term bonds ca Greece m trade. Hm qua n tng ln
khong 7%. Greek CDS th bung rt cao. Greece s default hay khng th cha bit nhng
market sentiment i trc nn ngi ta ang factor vo nhng quc gia no ging ging
Greece trade. V s "p mn" trn International market, nn investors n n vo US
bonds lnh nn. Cu chuyn Greece ni ring v vng Euro zone ni chung cha c xong
u. Nu xi bi hc Asian Crisis tin on ci ca hin ti th bc cn mt WASH-OUT
EVENT. Khi n xy ra th market mi bnh yn. VN market ca cc bc ln ln xung trong
khong thi gian gn y c th gii thch mt phn qua hin tng ny. C ngha l VN cng
c bonds. Thnh ra VN cng c ci risk nh bao quc gia khc. S kin USDVND ln cao v
Tt c th c xem l SEASONAL, nhng nu sau Tt m n khng xung li th VN
market ca cc bc kh m i xa.

12.02.10
Ti ngh US market s gy ln 10K trong nay mai. Hin gi n ang ng trn m 10K. World market
hin gi ang b bi hai lc: Greece & China. Greece y ng ngha vi khi Euro zone, ch
khng n gin l Greece. Euro zone th Germany dn u. Germany cn phi gip cho d ngi dn
khng thch. Gip Greece khng hn l Germany t t g, nhng khng gip th ngay c h thng
banking ca Germany cng s go down ging nh h thng banking ca US 1 nm v trc. Cn
China th khng th chnh sch Easy $$$ kiu ny hoi. Kinh t ngi M c suy thoi v bn cht
ca n nn Uncle Sam mi c nhiu chng trnh Easy $$$. TQ th khc. Kinh t h ch chm li v
world market, ch khng ging nh M. Chnh sch Easy $ ca h ch lm cho dng tin "cha" ny
chy vo cc speculative assets. Trong stocks v real estate l chnh. Ngi Tu m tht cht credit
li th ci correction in world market s cn di. Ch s 10K on the Dow kh mng manh. The first
support s l trong vng 9.5K or below. Ring c nhn ti th ngh rng < 9K mi tht s l a bottom.
Leading sectors trong US market nh banking & techs xoay chiu. Chnh sch EZ $$ from the FED
ca 2009 inflate ci earnings ca h ln. Dng tin khng cn na (TARP $$) cho nn mt s
$$ center banks (C, JPM, WFC, BAC) khng cn stellar earnings so vi nm ngoi. l ti sao
17

stocks ca h khng li trong thi gian qua. Ring v Commercial Real Estate th cn t hn na.
Kinh t yu nn khng ai dm mn vn phng lm vic or lm n. Ci ny s git cht h thng
REGIONAL BANKS. Theo nhn nh ca 1 s ngi th nu 2008-2009 the large $$$ center banks
cht th rt c th 2010 s l nm ca regional banks. Ring v techstocks th kh hn nhiu. Hu ht
cc cng ty ln nh u kh hn trc. i cng ty nh ORCL cn lm le mn thm gn 1K ngi.
MSFT ca Bill Gate cng th. INTC cng vy. Nhng v s kin market index trong thi gian ngn
hn ny ang i theo ci FEAR ca th gii cho nn techs sector cng phi tri theo. Good earnings or
not, you simply can't swim against the current in world market.
19.02.10
The Fed tng phn li (discount window) bt thnh lnh sau khi US market ng ca. Tuy rng phn
li ny khng c nh hng nhiu trong market, v cho ngi consumers. Nhng hnh ng tng kiu
ny tht s SPOOK the market in many ways. Wall St. t nm ngoi n gi lun factor in a Spring
rate hike v fed fund futures bet a 46% hike vo u ma xun (April). The FED chi kiu ny
mang nhiu volatility n cho market ch ch li lc g. Ti tht s khng bit ng Bernanke ny ang
suy ngh ci g. C mun tng th tng vo 1) meeting or 2) thng bo tht lu. Ai i gi ng ca ri
tuyn b ci kiu ny? Overnight market SP futures hin ang rt 10 pts trn Globex exchange.
Traders ang i ch s CPI ra sng mai (US hours). Nu ch s ny m tng th chc chn ci March
Meeting ca the FED sp ti y s l a real rate hike. Ci tng hi chiu ny l pht sng khi u
cho mt chu k tng phn li ca the FED. Tng bao nhiu v tng nhanh/chm l cu hi cho tng
lai. Mi trading t nay v sau trn ton th trng ti chnh ca world market u da vo hai cu hi
ny. Hin ti ch s Dow, nh bi vit pha trn c tin on, support khong 9.5K cho ci down leg
sp ti ny. 10 pts in SP futures l khong 120 pts in the Dow. l overnight market. Real market
ngy mai thng nhiu hn th. Nhiu bao nhiu or t bao nhiu cn ty thuc vo ch s CPI sng
nay (5:30 AM PST US hours).

INDU daily chart: Bearish Rising Wedge. Measured Move = ~9.5K or below

18




SP 500 Overnight futures Globex Exchange currently down 10 pts.


19

19.02.10
Hi ti sau khi thy overnight market rt kh mnh, the FED s market hiu lm vic tng phn li
"out of whack" kiu nn nh chnh rng vic tng phn li sau khi market ng ca v kh xa
thi im Fed meeting l v h MUN MARKET PHN BIT c vic tng phn li hin ti
KHNG PHI l khi u cho mt chu k tng phn li (real rate) nh trong qu kh. Vic h tng
Discount Rate last night ch l vic h mun cc ngn hng rt tin ra khi th trng, t bit l cc
hot $$ ra khi nhng bubble asset class. The FED nhn mnh rng s khc bit ca ci discount rate
hike ny v nhng ci tng (Fed Fund) l hai iu khc bit. World market v th tr nn bnh yn hn.
Gi Spread gia short & long-term yield tr li mc bnh thng nh trc khi the Fed tng (~100 pip
between the short & long). Khi con s ny tr li bnh thng th overall market cng tr li bnh
thng sau . l nhng g va xy ra t ti qua n gi. The Street hin gi ang i ci gi l
HUMPREY HAWKINS testimony (*) ca the FED Chief vo tun ti. y l mt trong hai bui ni
chuyn QUAN TRONG nht ca nm m the FED chairman xut hin trc Quc Hi trng trnh
v hin tnh kinh t (ci 2nd meeting s l khong thng 7). Ngi ta mong rng trong bui ni chuyn
ny the FED chairman s lm sng t hn vn . Wall Street v th m rebound t im thp nht ca
m qua (-120 Pts for the Dow)

Hnh di l current spread ca Treasury bond futures in overnight and current market.



20

(*) 10 nm v trc bui hp thng nin ny c gi l the Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Sau ny
hnh nh n i li mt tn khc. Tn g cng c. im chnh ca bui hp ny l the FED update
QH v hin tnh kinh t trong 6 thng qua.
24.02.10
Anh c th cho bn em bit tin on ca anh v gi GOLD trong nm nay c khng anh?
Hin ti, em thy USD ang mnh ln nhng gi GOLD th khng thy gim. Em c suy ngh
l GOLD vn s gi gi hoc thm ch ln gi trong bi cnh kinh t th gii hin nay.

Theo ti ngh th gold cn rt na, t g cng gn 1K trc khi c hng i mi. V hng i
c l l xung nhiu hn ln. Gn y c nhiu bi bnh lun v Soros hay Paulson ang
mua Gold. Nu ch m c c nhng bi bnh lun da vo cc cy c th ca trading th nn
coi chng. c th l 1 con dao hai li. Thng thng th i t ai dn cm sn mi
mnh lm, nht l lo Ma Soros. More often than not, ngi ta v ri nn h ht k khc vo
chng lng OR ngi ta ang kim ngi n y. Either one, you don't want to be the
next in line HOLDING THE BAG. C nhn chart v phn tch tt c th trng theo kiu
intermarket analysis. Vng, trn cn bn, lun trade da vo USD. USD & EUR l hai ct tr
ca ti chnh th gii. S lin h ca n (USD & EUR) lm gi vng tng/gim theo
MARKET PERCETPION. Nhng ngi nh Soros, Paulson & Greenspan l nhng i s
ph ca Market Sentiment analysis. Thnh ra, xem h hay c v nhn nh ca ho is a TWO-
WAY STREET.

Ti khng bit nhiu v cch hnh chnh (a.k.a VN Monetary Policy) nn khng th no tin
on hay hiu c cch iu hnh ca h. VN ni chung s i theo hng i ca cc
emerging market, dn u l China. M hnh pht trin ca VN HON TON ph thuc vo
cung cch iu hnh ca China. Cho nn c tm hiu v chnh sch tin t ca China. VN
monetary policy is a WATER-DOWN version of the Chinese thui. l ni chung. Cn ni
r trng en th ti ngh VND s i xung trong tng lai. Ti sao? Bi v cho d cu chuyn
ca Greece xong xui th ngi ta cng s rt e d vi sovereign debts. Greek econ gn c
xem l 1st world, ch khng phi 3rd world econ nh VN. Vy m cn default trn bonds ca
h. Ai bo m rng cc quc gia vng NA ni chung s khng trnh khi khi nn kinh t
th gii cha phc hi, v khi nn kinh t ca cc quc gia vn ch trng ch vo xut
cng pht trin? Ch c bit ti sao Greece default trn bonds ca h khng? H cht v nn
kinh t ca h cng sng nh vo xut cng. Greece & VN khc bit nhau mt im. V v
im nn VN v cc quc gia NA nh TL, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippine vn cha
ng tnh g l v LABOR COST ti cc quc gia Chu ny kh thp. Greek labor cost rt
cao. Labor cost cao mt phn l v ngi cng nhn Greek c tr bng EUR. EUR trong
thi gian 18 thng qua tng kh cao so vi USD. V th hng ha ca h kh xut cng.

21

03.03.10
Di y l hai ci hnh ca USD v DJIA. Trong thi gian short-term sp ti y, USD c nhiu st
xut pullback t. Gi l pullback thay v xoay chiu l v ti khng ngh USD ang top out. Trong sut
thi gian qua, world market vi cu chuyn Greece khng lm cho US break out. GBP b bomb out te
tua bn Forex market, USD vn trade trong ci consolidation channel nguyn thng Hai. C l v
market ang ngi ch s NFP sp ra ca th 6 ny. Vi hin tnh kinh t hin ti, v nhng li nhn
nh ca the FED Boss hi u tun trc, traders khng ngh rng the FED s mnh tay tng phn li
trong thi gian sp ti. V th, cho d c kh nhiu tin tc rt thun li go long, nhng USD vn
khng break out ni. l mt du hiu short-term bearish cho ch s ny. Ti ngh USD s c hng
i r rt sau th 6 ny. Up or down ty thuc rt nhiu vo ch s NFP, t bit l con s
Unemployment %.





Ring v ch s Dow th trc y vi ngy v ngay c hin ti, n c mt BEARISH RISING
WEDGE. Mi cho n hm nay n vn cha thot khi ci bng nh hng ca formation ny. Thng
thng th formation loi ny rt chnh xc. C th ni rng 80% l ng. K ny th cha hn n s
ng, mc du hm nay c mt small bearish formation. Nu mun ch s Dow ra khi vng nh
hng ca ci rising wedge ny th n phi clear ci ln trng resistance pha trn. Nu ln trng ny
c ko di ra th vng clearing target t g cng 10.6K tr ln. M nu n ng 10.6K th coi nh n
s retesting its high, 10.8K. Hnh di cho thy rng di bng mu xanh v khi xon li vi nhau l
du hiu market xoay chiu. My hm nay ch s Dow c chi tnh sng rt chiu ln nn cho d hm
nay c mt small bearish sign, n vn c st xut tng cao hn st xut rt. Thm vo , DMI pha
di cho bit rng st xut ln > st xut xung.

22



Trong T/A nhiu khi bc khng cn phi i ci formation hin ra ng nh sch v mi c xem
l ng. Ci wedge formation trn hin thi TM GI l failed formation. Failed ch khng phi l
WRONG. Ti canh formation ny chng 2, 3 tun nay trong nhng bi vit ti y. Nhn hnh bn
trn, bc bit ti sao n vn l a rising wedge, nhng failed khng? Formation l formation. Indicators
khng dnh dng g n n. Nu bc mun ghp indicators vo th l mt chuyn khc. l mt
overall picture ca gi, ch khng phi ca formation. Thnh ra, chuyn bc ni MACD khng tng
ng th ci l 1 vn khc. C th n lm cho ci formation ny FAILED, nhng khng v th m
formation c gi l "gng p." Failed formation cng khng c ngha l formation khng ng.
Hai vn ny hon ton khc bit. Nhn hnh trn, ngoi vic bc ni hai y (02) v hai nh (02),
bc c th ni thm l ti sao v ci g CHNG MINH (confirmed) l a rising wedge khng? Bc
nhn k ln na i ri hy ni. Bng khng th ti s ch cho bc bit. Cn ni thm l formation ny
COMPLETED, nhng d m ca n vn cn. V vn cn nn trong vi ngy qua, ch s Dow ch
loang quanh vng ny. Nu n khng phi l a bearish rising wedge th market khng nm yn nh
th.

Em xem v vn cha hon ton thuyt phc c mnh lm trong ci rising wedge ny.
iu em rt ra c t y m c th cho l 1 wedge v:

1. Trong ci wedge anh v th volume n gim u (d gi tng)

l 1 trong nhng yu t chnh ca a BEARISH RISING WEDGE


23

2. N s khng failed nu sau khi gim xung lower line ri bt ln upper line trc khi die
thc s, lc ci wedge mi thc s hon thin ?

No. Khng cn phi bt ln. y l 1 trong nhng formation CHNH XC NHT trong T/A.
Nhng chnh xc khng c ngha l bt bi. S kin formation ny failed trong thi gian qua
khng phi v formation, nhng v the FED Chairman ra tuyn b lung tung, ha l s gi
phn li thp trong thi gian rt di. Formation ny xut hin v market ang factor in a
GREEK DEFAULT, nhng n cng li c cu gip t ECB. Cho nn n khng c
FOLLOW THROUGH nh mi ln. Nu cc anh c li t thng 2 khi ti ni v n ln u
tin th lc n CHA C 1 ngy break down (ngy mu lin tip ngay ci mi ca ci
wedge). Ci ngi ta gi l CONFIRMATION OF A SIGNAL. Anh hiu khng? Ti v
nu khng phi l a rising wedge th anh cha hn s c ngy . Thng thng khi c ngy
xong th s c follow through lin. V thng no bit c chart khi thy ci formation ny
v thy c ci ngy break down u tin khi ci tip of the wedge n short lin. V ci
rising wedge khi cha break down (khi cha c ci 1 mu ) th n cn nm trong ci
wedge. Break down cha xy ra, nn cha chc. Ngc li khi n break ri l shorts nhy vo
lin. l v k thut. Ring c nhn ti th ti cn filter thm vi con s na. Nhng tr
li cu hi ca anh th l nh th.

3. Tuy nhin n li ph v lower line vi 1 khi lng tng v th formation ny tht bi ?
4. N chuyn sang 1 up channel ?


Ti khng hiu cu hi s 3 ca anh. Ring cu s 4 th irrelevant. Market ny cha c xem
l uptrend, tuy rng n c nt bullish hn l bearish ca my ngy qua. Ni tht cho cc anh
bit, trong market hin ti dng nh ngi ta s a repeat of 2007-2008 nn cc central banks
c massage market ti a. Khi th Bernanke ha; khi th ECB ha nn market mi lp lng c
. Ch bnh thng l tiu ri. Hnh di l in hnh cho mt bullish sentiment trong US
market hin ti. Stock ny missed earing big time. Ci rising wedge l mt formation bo
trc SOMETHING BAD WILL HAPPEN. Stock bombed big time vo gi m ca. n
cui gi n leo ln gn ht s im rt. C ai ngh rng ci ny KHNG PHI L a rising
wedge khng? Nu mai ny n fill ci gap, ln cao hn hin ti th c ai ngh rng ci
formation khng phi l a rising wedge? Cc anh phi phn bit c s kin a
CORRECT, BUT FAILED, FORMATION vs. A WRONG FORMATION TO BEGIN
WITH.


24



Cn nu anh vn khng hiu ti sao ci rising wedge b gi l failed th anh xem th ch s
USD di y. y l ci l do m n lm the bearish wedge pha trn khng ng nh d
on. Cc anh c bit ci formation ca ch s USD di ny l g khng?



25


N l mt trong nhng formation him thy, gi l DIAMOND ng nh bc Learner ni.
Formation ny c 2 ngha: Continuation or Trend Reversal. Ci no th cha r, nhng n lm
ci Rising Wedge failed trong thi gian qua. Khi formation ny ang develop th ch s Dow
ang c a rising wedge. Lc USD ang on an uptrend. Nhng thay v n tip tc i ln, n
l xoay chiu i ngang cng thm INTRADAY VOLATILITY REDUCTION (smaller
candle) thnh ra option premium trong SP index (both option & option on futures) u
collapse. l ti sao anh thy ch s VIX lt v vng low 20's. My ch shorts rt tay li, v
rising wedge failed. n gin th thui.

Originally Posted by learner
Formation ny l Diamond phi ko anh VC. Tin th anh VC c th ch cho ti em bit quyn
sch no hay vit chi tit v pattern or formation ko anh. Em c nhiu sch v pattern nhng
vn cha nm c ngha or tm tnh ca ngi chi trong cc pattern y.

Kh lm. Formation ny c xut hin vi ln trong VN market ca 3 nm qua. Ti khng thy
ai ni n nhiu. Ti lm thinh xem c ai thy khng, nhng cha thy ai nhn ra n. Hm
nay sn dp ni v risng wedge nn ti li n ra chng minh lun. Sch th ti khng c.
Ch c quyn ca Edwards & McGee thui. Vn khng phi l c sch, m l v kinh
nghim. T/A l mt ngh thut. Anh c sch hiu v n. Anh c chart THY N.
Mun thy n, anh cn thi gian. Cc anh ti VN c nut ht ng sch chm trn
Media4share or RapidSharing g cng khng th no t on ng ngi PRACTICAL
technician phi i. Ti nhn mnh ch PRACTICAL ni ln kinh nghim au thng ca
c nhn. Ch khng phi l loi GOOGLE EXPERT a nhe . Loi th trn cc din n
nhiu lm. l kinh nghim ca nhng ln thua, c sai thui. Hu ht, nu khng ni l
99.99% cc anh ch mi bit T/A chng vi nm nay, th khng bao nhiu ngi ti VN c
kinh nghim thy or nhn ra nhng formation t xy ra. Anh ch cn phi tp c chart
nhiu th t nhin khi nhn vo chart s thy n t ng "nhy ra" m thui. Khng cch no
hc nhanh hn u.

Originally Posted by bophe
Em khng bit g v TA. Nhng em cng c cm nhn nh anh VC ni SOMETHING BAD
WILL HAPPEN. Greece, Spain, UK, China chng?

Khi ti ni "something bad will happen" trn ti ni l khi market form a formation nh a
rising wegde hin ti, n ang factoring in a piece of bad news. Nhng nh hng v
formation cn ty thuc vo hin tnh market hin ti. Nh anh thy ci th d v CIEN
trn, anh s thy rng n s cover ci gap rt mau trong hin tnh market. L do? Market
nh hi c the FED v cc Central Banks khc, v mun cu GREECE, nn h sn sng
support the market trn mi hnh thc. H hc c ci nh hng th thm ca Lehman 2
nm v trc. Cho nn bi gi h s cu Greece bng bt c gi no. Cu Greece cng c
ngha l cu h. V c cu ca nn ti chnh trn th gii c chia l l 2 loi. Mt loi ca
M v 1 loi ca u Chu & Nht. V c cu ny cho nn cc nh banks ca c, Php, Ha
Lan, Swiss...v....v....dnh kh nng vo Greek debts. Anh m Greek cht th bo m cc
nh banks s b n nh BAC, C ca US. y l nhng nh banks c tm vc ngang hng
vi US banks. Cc cng ty ln c ny khng nhng l i cng ty trn th gii m cn l
NIM HNH DIN ca 1 quc gia. Nu anh Deutsch Bank hay 1 nh bank no ca Php
sp hm nh C hin ti th th nht n nh mt n tm l rt nng vo h thng ti chnh
ca quc gia. Th hai n nh mnh vo nim hnh din ca quc gia . V th, ngi ta s
26

khng Greece cht. Hiu r vn , my ch nghip on (Greek Union workers) lm le
xung ng chng li vic chnh ph tng thu, gim lng.
Perfect example of a FAILED RISING WEDGE.

Nh c ni hm qua, s kin mt ci formation khi n failed to follow through th khng hn l
formation sai. Hm qua ti cho th d mt US stock gi l Ciena Networking (CIEN). Trc hai
ngy stock c a CLEARLY DEFINED RISING WEDGE. Nhng trong hin tnh market, v bullish
sentiment kh mnh nn bearish formation, no matter how strong or solid in the past, vn c th fail
mt cch rt bt ng. Hnh pha di chng minh iu ny.



08.04.10
Nu China nng gi ng Yuan th vic u tin xy ra l USD s rt. JPY s tng. China t lu
dng s tin thng d ng YUAN hu c li trong vic xut khu ca h v Yuan thp c ngha
l hng h r. China peg (ct dnh vo) ng Yuan vi USD vi t l hi xut khong chng 1USD =
6-7 Yuan vi 2% fluctuation bandwidth. Ngha l h cho ng tin h di du trong khong 2% ln
xung. Nu n i ra ngoi con s th h s vo ph gi. My hm nay ti c nghe phong phang v
vic ny, nhng ti khng ngh h s lm u. M nu c th s thp. H c lm 1 ln nh th khong
2006 khi b p lc ca th gii. Nhng ch l mt ci nng cp tht nh.
Theo em hiu th vic China ph gi ng Yuan kch thch xut khu lm tn hi khng
nh n cc nn kinh t da vo xut khu khc, v kinh t ton cu ni chung. Vy th nu
China nng gi ng Yuan th nn kinh t ton cu s c hng li, trong c c nn kinh
t M. D ng USD phi tng v ng Yen phi gim ch nh ???!

27

Hay l do tc ng cung cu v China nng gi ng Yuan so vi USD bng cch mua Yuan
v bn USD nn USD rt?

China khng c ph gi ng Yuan, m l nng t s Peg Ratio ln v p lc th gii. C
ngha nu lc trc l 1 USD = 6-7 Yuan th bi gi c th 1 USD = 4-5. Khi China lm vic
ny th mc xut cng ca h s gim v GI hng ha tng. USD rt v the new peg ratio.
l ni v l thuyt ca peg ratio. Cn ni v forex th USD rt v China khng cn support
USD na, qua hnh thc h khng mua NHIU USD bonds nh trc. Ti v nu h mua
nhiu nh lc trc th lm sao c c a new peg ratio? Ti v ci peg ratio ny lun lun
c xi qua phng cch DYNAMIC HEDGING.
Originally Posted by porsche
USD s gim th em hiu nhng ti sao yen li tng vy ? YEN t8ang so vi USD or YEN
tng broadly ?

Ng vo China c hai ca: Hong Kong & Japan. HK l ca ng giao du vi th gii qua ci
nhn ca Forex market. Japan th qua ci nhn ca m hnh kinh t. Ti v, Japan vi China c
mt nn kinh t rt ging nhau. C hai cng da trn m hnh xut cng. Trn World Market,
ng YUAN b FIXED qua ch s Peg Ratio nn traders xi ng JPY as a Chinese Rembini
Proxy. Thnh ra, khi China nng gi ng Yuan th t nhin JPY s tng.

Cn cu hi th hai ca bc: JPY ln vs. USD hay broadly? Bc th ngh xem n s ln nh
th no?
05.05.10
US Market May 2010
US Market hm nay te tua v ngi ta nhn Greece nh li ci d vng ca 2 nm v trc.
Yeah...hai nm v trc cng khong gi ny (actually cui thng 3), Bear Stearns (BS) went
down. ri 7 thng sau Lehman Bros (LEH). Greece ngy nay l BS ca 2008. Ai s l
LEH? Spain, Portugal or Italy? Theo thng k ca nht bo New York Times th s n ca
Greece tht ra khng ln lm, chnh xc hn l khng phi l gnh khng ni. Cng theo t
bo ny th nu ly s n y chia ra tng s dn ca vng Eurozone th trung bnh mi gia
nh phi chi ra 1K, ty theo GDP ca quc gia. Th d nh Ireland s chi 1K/family. Trong
khi Portugal th chng 700/family. D nhin ngi dn ca hai quc gia ny kh kim u
ra s tin y chia s. V chnh h cng ang on the hook.

Vn th hai ca vic Greece bailout ny l ci m ngi ta gi l Austerity measure. Xin
tm dch l "tht lng buc bng." iu kin m Greece phi chp nhn trc khi nhn tin l
phi ng chng trnh austerity ny. Tng Thng Greece ha nh th, nhng dn Greek th
khng chu. Ngi dn Greek vn quen c s tr gip ca chnh ph cho nn bi gi ku
h "trng k khng chin" th h khng quen. Mt th d in hnh v li lm vic ca ngi
Greek l th ny. Mt nm 12 thng th h ch c lm 10 thng thui. Nhng li n lng 12
thng. cc quc gia c th t bn th vic ny coi nhng khng chp nhn c. Khi
Euro ku TT Greek bi b ci ny th ngi dn Green li khng chu. Greek workers hu ht
sng trong nghip on. Sc mnh n t s ng. H dng s ng khng chp nhn gii
28

php ny.

Ngc li, ngi ch n ca v ny l Germany. Ngi dn German cng khng thch ra tay
cu Greece, nht l khi bit rng cha chc Greece s lm c nhng g ha. M nu
Greece khng lm c th ti sao b tin ra gip lm g? Ci gi l gii php cu Greece hi
tun trc ch l 1 gii php tm b, cha chc chn. Tun sau l ngy bu c ti German. B
Th Tng cha hn l s c c. M nu c c th cha chc gii php ca Greece s
xong. Song song vi nhng s kin chnh tr ang din ra, th cc c quan chuyn nh gi tn
dng (credit rating agencies) nh S&P, Fitch v..v....li nhn Spain vi 1 cp mt nghi ng.
Cc c quan ny 3, 4 nm v trc mt nhm mt m a rating lon co co dn n vic
subprime mortgage nn bi gi h rt cn thn. H sng bng ngh tn dng, m nu n tn
dng ca h sc m thm ln na th kh lm n. V th, chuyn ny cc c quan y rt khc
khe so vi thi im ca 3, 4 nm v trc. Spain, v th, m on the block (ln my chm).


29




Investor, on the other hand, th chim b tn nn s cng cong. Bi hc BS & LEH cn hin
hin . L thuyt coach roach theory ca trading floor ai ny cng thuc lng. Vi nhng
kh khn ca Greek workers v German voters hin ti, h khng thy mt tng lai kh
quan no trong vn Greece. V l mt l bi lt nga, hung g l bi p Spain cn
cha bit ra sao. Sau ba thng, k t u thng 2 n gi, US market ln khng ngng ngh.
Hm nay vi nhng kh khn trc mt th vic cashing out khng phi l 1 iu kh ngh.

USD consolidated trong khong thi gian 3 thng qua, cng thi gian m US market tng cao.
Hm nay n broke out w/ a clear cut. l du hiu cc k bullish cho ch s ny. D nhin,
1 ngy breakout khng hn l chc chn. Index c th rt li t. Ln ranh ca rt y, nu
c, s l mc break out sng nay. l nu c hin tng bulltrap. Nhng theo kinh nghim
30

c nhn th this is a real deal. Vi mc market breadth gn 10:1 (selling) th l du hiu
cashing out ca a lot of BIG fish on the Street.




BC c th gii thch r hn v on ny: "Nhng theo kinh nghim c nhn th this is a real
deal. Vi mc market breadth gn 10:1 (selling) th l du hiu cashing out ca a lot of
BIG fish on the Street"?

Real = tht hay l khng c gi.
Real Deal = Ting lng trong ting Anh khi ni v 1 s kin mang nhiu tnh cch tin on,
nhng gn nh l chc chn.
Breadth = tm dch l chiu su.
Market breadth l chiu su ca th trng.

Khi c 1 ci selling/buying mnh trn US market, vic u tin anh mun bit l TM TNH
ca market pha sau ci selling or buying nh th no. Anh nh l TM TNH nh, khng
phi con s ln xung ca index u. V con s ln xung ny rt d to ra qua phng cch
ca futures market. Nhng tm tnh th khng. Trong ci sell off ca th 3 th tm tnh
CC K BEARISH. N hin ln qua s kin 10 stocks xung cho 1 stock ln. l ti sao
ti ni l market breadth 10 (down): 1 (up). V ci market breadth ny cho nn my ch
investors ht dm nhy vo chi tnh buy on dip nh my k trc.
Originally Posted by unistock
31

Anh VC c th ni thm v ci ny khng? Ti sao nguy c t Greece lan rng ra chu u th
M li tt c?

Theo em th vn chu u cui cng vn phi gii quyt bng fiscal expansion v kh
nng ECB phi a base rate v mc thp trong 1 extended period ging nh M, khi
ng EUR b depreciated so vi cc ng tin khc trong c USD v s h tr xut khu
cho khu vc ny, v ng USD th appreciated so vi EUR.

EUR's problems tuy hung hn hin ti trn cc world market nh FX v Equity. Nhng khng
giao ng nhiu trong Fixed Incomes. Ngoi s kin spread ca CDS bung rng cho cc quc
gia nh Greece, Portugal and Spain, cc ni khc tng i bnh yn. l du hiu khng
c FEAR trong world market structure. Hin tng ny khc vi ci ca 2 nm v trc. Cu
chuyn underlying equity market worldwide hin ti vn l GROWTH. Nhn vng vng th
gii bi gi NI NO BNH YN NHT? US hay Emerging markets nh China? Nu anh l
smart $$$ v cn kim Growth + Safety of a highly liquid marekt, anh chy u?
07.05.10
y l gi USD index hin ti. Nu n ng ti y, candlestick formation ny gi l g? Yeah...Doji
g . US market hin gi ang retesting its low. Ci ny thng xy ra vo khong 10:30 n 11:15
PST (US West Coast hours). Nu ch no trade US market bng cch canh me USD th ti ngh l s
c t bng khung. Hnh nh ngi Greek xung ng biu tnh ti Athens khi quc hi h ang bu
c thng qua o lut Austerity measure lm cho investors khp th gii chng tay. Hnh nh ca mt
Asian Crisis 97 hin v nn market get spooked big time today.



32

US market tr nn cc k hn lon sau khi TV chiu nhng hnh nh ngi Greek biu tnh ti
Athens. Selling program kicked trn NYSE in sau khi SP broke support. Fast market trong tt c US
markets, t options n equity. Market down chng 850 pts. 500 trong 800 pts xy ra trong 10
pht. That means Sell Programs hit the tape. y l hedge fund trades bc. Ti n nht nh
BREAK THE EUR a. Market ni vi the ECB: 1) phi c chng trnh cc k drastic nh US cch
y 1 nm or 2) kick GREECE out.
07.05.10
1000-pt Plunge Day!!!

US market hm nay te tua v hai l do chnh: Greece & Program Trading.. Khi u i l 1 ngy kh
bnh yn. Ch s retail sale tuy hi thp hn vi mc d on, nhng khng n ni qu t. Mt phn
l do ny l nm nay ma l Phc Sinh (Eastern Holidy) n hi sm so vi hng nm. Nhng market
bt u tr nn bearish khi hnh nh on ngi biu tnh trc Thng Vin ca Greece c pht
hnh i khp cc trading desk trn th gii. Cu chuyn bt u khi ngi dn biu tnh ngoi Greek
Thng Vin chng i o lut "tht lng buc bng" (austerity measure) m c quan IMF v cc
quc gia thuc khi Eurozone bt buc Greece phi tun theo trc khi h ra tay cu gip. Trn world
market, t bit ti Curency market ni m ng Euro l trung tm ca cn bo, th cp tin EURJPY
l cp tin chnh ca cn bo ny.

t lu ng Yen c xem l a carry trade. Carry trade c ngha l 1 tr chi ca phn li, hay cn
gi l Rate Differentiation. Ngi ta mua ng tin vi phn li cao hng tin swap fee hng m.
Yen thng c mnh danh l ng tin ca RISK trong FX market. Gi l ng tin ca Risk l khi
risk tng th ngi ta chy v vi n. Khi risk gim, ngi ta chy ra. Risk y c nhiu ngha:
Political Risk (nguy c chnh tr); Rate risk (nguy c phn li); Geopolitical risk (nguy c chnh tr ty
vng t ca th gii); v cui cng l Market Risk (nguy c th trng). Ni chung th JPY l ng
tin c nh hng ca market risk l nhiu nht.

Hm nay khi hnh nh ca on ngi biu tnh c pht i khp th gii, ngi ta khng nhn
Greece qua lng knh ca mt quc gia thiu n khng th tr na. l hnh nh ca hm qua. Hm
nay ngi ta nhn Greece qua lng knh ca mt x hi bt n. Mt social unrest ang thnh hnh. Nh
ni ti y trong cc ngy qua, ngi dn Greek KHNG CHU tht lng buc bng. H xem nh
nhng quyn li c t trc n gi l chuyn ng nhin. Mt s ng trong on ngi y tuyn
b l h sn sng biu tnh cho n khi chnh ph nhng b mi thi. Khi hi v vic s n ca
Greece cn phi gii quyt th h thng thng tuyn b l h khng cn bit. Ni cch khc l h sn
sng git n. Khi on phim ny c beam i khp th gii trn nhng trading desks th traders din
dch hnh ng ny mang nhiu tnh cch chnh tr nhiu hn. Chnh xc hn l 1 social unrest ang
thnh hnh.

y l hnh nh kh quen thuc cho nhng ngi ln ln trong financial market hn thp nin qua.
Hnh nh ca 13 nm v trc khi ng Baht ca Thi Lan cng tng t. Khi u i l 1 giao ng
trong currency market. Currency vng, ch cha hn l ton cu. Ri hedge funds nhy vo, in hnh
l Soros, bin n t 1 s kin ca kinh t sang chnh tr rt nhanh. Lc u l tin mt gi. Mt cng
ngy cng nhiu. Ngi dn bt u xung ng chng chnh ph. Ti nghip h, nhng ngi dn
ca cc x y sao bit c mnh ang l tr chi ca high-end finance trn th gii. Vic u tin l
trch chnh ph. Ti sao c gi ln hoi. Gi c leo thang cc nhanh l du hiu ca currency
devaluation. Ngy xa l Curency. Ngy nay l Bonds, l Debts, l N. Cng 1 problem vi hai mt
khc nhau. Sau Thi Lan l M lai, Indonesia. Ti cn nh r hnh nh ngi n b bng con thiu
33

sa chy ht h trn ng ph ca th Jarkata tm ng I SA cho con. Ti nhn mnh
ch i v lc ng tin Indonesian ht cn gi tr trong khong thi gian ngn . X hi vn minh
ca loi ngi ti Indo quay v thi tin s, thi --khi con ngi dng vt trao i thay v
dng tin. Hin tng m cc kinh t gia gi l BARTER SYSTEM. Ngha l anh c con g; ti c
con vt. Let's trade. Hnh nh ca Greece hm nay chc chn lm nhng k tri qua thi k Asian
Crisis ca 97 khng khi nn nao. l ti sao cp tin EURJPY l trung tm ca cn bo hm nay
so vi cc cp tin khc.

Selling tng cng trong cp tin ny vo khong 11:35 (PST US hours). Ch trong vng 3 pht
(xem chart bn di), cp tin ny i ht 300 pips. Cc bc no cha trade FX th c tng tng rng
nu bc c 1 LONG position w/ 1 standard lots. (y l n v cn bn ca forex marekt. n v nh
hn nh mini lot; micro lots l chicken feeds khng tnh) th cc bc s mt khong 3K USD.
Yes...this isn't a typo. V ng Euro l mt ng tng i t giao ng nht trong cc ng tin khc.
L do l v n ch thua ng USD, n v cn bn ca th trng currency th gii.

Trong FX market, trn phng din ca institutions, margin calls c ngha l hm sau. Forex market
c trade 24/7. Vy c ngha l chiu nay (US hours) khi market bn kia b Thi bnh Dng m
ca, margin calls will hit the accounts. Tuy mang ting l 24 hour day, nhng tht ra khng qu 5
ting ng h. l ti sao ng EURJPY b hit te tua. Khi traders b margin calls th h lm g? H
s sell cc asset class khc kim tin b vo. In fact, khi thy market giao ng mnh nh th,
institutional brokers nh Goldman, Citi, or Bank of America gi lung tung ri. Gi nhc kho v
cng m ch rng h c th liquidate account KHNG CN BO TRC. Nhn hnh pha di
(hnh s 2) nu so snh khong thi gian ca cp tin EURJPY v ch s S&P 500 cho thy rng l
margin selling ca FX traders.

Tuy nhin, iu lm cho 1 s ngi ti US market kh chu l trong pht giy sell off ngn ngi ny
(2-3 minutes) ai m sell khip th. Theo 1 ngun tin quen thuc th s lng sell lc y l 16 t USD.
16 t hit the tapes trong vng khong thi gian cc ngn nh th th 700 pts ca ch s Dow i oong
khng phi l chuyn l. y l l do ti sao ch s Dow rt tht nhanh v ln li cng rt nhanh. Nhn
hnh di cho k s thy rng US market sell off SAU cp tin EURJPY trong khong 2 pht.



34


Th nht, c cu ca NYSE n khc vi ca Nasdaq. N xut thn t mt h thng SPECIALIST.
Ngha l n c 1 ngi ng pha sau cho mi stocks listed on the NYSE. Trn NYSE c ci stock ni
ting nht hm nay gi l PG (Proter & Gamble). y l 1 trong nhng stocks go ci ca ch s Dow
v ca the NYSE. Hm nay n b dnh n. Ti ly ci l th d cho anh bit ti sao NYSE khng
hy trades ging nh Nasdaq. Anh nhn trn ci chart ti post pha trn (1-minute chart) . Ci pht
u tin khi Selling Orders v, thng Specialist ca NYSE n thy trc. Nu n c sc (a.k.a tin) n
s nhn ht ng order . Bng khng th n C QUYN SLOW DOWN the selling flow. Slow
down the selling flow c ngha l n khng cn phi EXECUTE ht ng order gi m ngi ta
35

mun. N c th "ngm" ng order trong vng vi pht. Ti sao n ngm? Ti v trong lc
FAST MARKET ang din ra. Phn Fast Market s c ni sau. Khi n ngm order nh th n ang
xi quyn market making ca mt specialist VI NHIM V N NH TH TRNG. Ti v nu
n m execute ng order th hn lon s xy ra. Cho nn n c quyn ngm. Trong lc n ngm
order th n hy vng s c BUY ORDER vo. Nu c th n s match hai orders li vi nhau. Bng
khng th n s T T m xung gi. T t m xung l mt ORDERLY MARKET. Anh hiu
khng? Orderly market s lm an lng investors. l nhim v chnh ca n. y l M HNH
trading ca NYSE gn 100 nm nay.

Tuy nhin, my nm gn y NYSE goes electronic. M hnh xa dn n c thay i bng
my. Tuy rng, thng specialists vn cn ng sau lng. V my khng th suy tnh bng con ngi.
Bi th khi hi sng ny, lc order v o o th n bc vo thay my chn orders li trong vng t
30 giy n 1 pht ri (NYSE Regulation). Khi n lm nh th th c 1 s orders c trade bi
phng cch gi l ALOGARTHM TRADING. y l h thng trading ca hedge fund c ra i
khon 10 nm trc, gi vn cn xi. System ny xi phng cch gi l ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE (khng bit dch l g). Phng php ny t ng dn orders sang h thng ECN.
Ti y l mt rng electronic exchange ging nh Nasdaq. y khng c ngi v cng khng c
ci SAFETY NET nh bn NYSE. Thnh ra, ng gi no n bn gi . Rt ging kiu After-hour
trading trn US market sau gi ng ca. l ti sao anh thy c 1 s stocks bn gi trn Tri di
t vi s lng volume cc nh. PG c bn gi thp nht hm nay @ 40 = 600 shares. h thng
ECN ca Interactive Brokers ca ti PG c bn gi thp nht @ 46 vi s lng 2300 shares. Cho
nn th d ti c mun mua PG @ 43/share, ti cng mua khng c v brokers ca ti khng c
trong ci h thng ECN m bn PG @ 40. PG c listed trn NYSE, nhng trong trng hp ny
c TRADE AWAY from the Exchange. Cho nn NYSE phi tay khng nhn trch nhim cho s
lng shares c EXECUTED AWAY from the exchange.

Ring thng Nasdaq th l h thng ca n. Con s shares c executed ti cc exchange nh vn
khng c ngi coi hu ht l DO MY COMPUTERS trade u. V th, n mi BUSTED all the
trades. l s kin xy ra hm nay, ch ch phi do thng brokers no nh ln thm vi con zeros
cui hng. n vi ca triu l 6 con zeros. n v ca t l 9 con. Thng no ngu n ni nh lin
tip thm 3 con na m khng bit? M nu n khng bit th h thng Safety ca trading desks cng
block n li thui. Chnh ti tng v orders ln kiu SELL/BUY lung tung ben in a fast market.
Nhng tuyt i khng thnh no nh thm 3 con zeros na m khng bit.

Ti c c my bi vit v hin tng ny bng ting Vit ti cc site VN news. Ti bit ngi vit
chc cng khng hiu mnh vit g. H dch theo news, v chn ci news no d hiu v d nht
dch. khng phi l li ca h. V y khng phi l 1 vn m dn thng hiu c, tr khi anh
tht s ngi trn trading desk and f*ck up a couples of times entering orders th anh mi hiu.

Hnh di cho thy PG trong gi trading . Volume sold @ the low = 2300 shares.


36





Market ny kh bit ci no l ci no. Nhng trong fast market th lun lun l index futures dn u.
L do l ch c n mi qut 1 pht l i nguyn con. Anh lm sao c th sell t ci 1 c a fast
37

market? Nu anh c 1 vi ci stocks rt te tua th market u c care. y u phi l VNI vi vi
trm ci stocks ca nguyn th trng. Nhng tr li cu hi ca anh l ti sao ch nghe ngi ta ni
v stocks. L do l SP futures ch l 1 trading instrument thui. Bn cht ca n khng c g ht. ch
l li giao kt gia hai ngi qua 1 contract vi 1 con s da vo 1 index ca th trng. Thnh ra,
mun con s ny thay i, anh phi c 1 thay i tht s trong the underlying stocks. l nguyn l.
Trn thc t th h thng computers ca hng tnh ra con s % cho tng stocks mt khi n cn hit a
selling program. Ni cch khc l ti n c ci "hit list" c program vo trong my. Khi gi market
index rt xung 1 im no l program kicks in, dt im market.

09.05.10
y l old news ri bc. Market bi gi ht con trade on Greek news ri. Ci drop th thm ca
ng Eur hm th 5 l ci gi market tr cho Greek Default ri. Greek c default hay khng trong
tun ti l mt chuyn NON-EVENT. C ngha l nu tun sau Greece tuyn b default (mt s kin
kh xy ra) market cng khng rt mnh nh ci ca th 5. Ngc li, nu c tin gii cu Greece th
market cng khng ln cao. l ti sao ti ni Greek news is old news. Greece doesn't move market
any more. News hin ti, nu mun dng trade, l SPAIN's news. y l con c mp hn. Ti c
ni vi cc anh bn trn. Traders xem Greece nh Bear Stearns, xem Spain nh Lehman. Market
tr gi cho BS ri, nhng cha c tr gi cho Lehman. V cng l ti sao pha trn ti c ni the
DOW s retest im 10K m n rt 1K im. Cho d 1K im c tht hay gi (busted trades).
Khong cch t y cho n 10K or below s l gi ca Spain.

Ring v ci news ca bloomberg bn trn th ngi ta s hi: Ci ch dnh ring cho Greece hay
cho tt c? M nu ch dnh cho Greece th ci v ngha. M nu dnh cho tt c th cu hi k tip
l ECB c tr ni khng? Cu hi "tr ni khng?" ny mang nhiu ngha. D nhin the ECB, cng
ging nh the FED, ch cn bm nt th in ra 1 ng Eur. Nhng the ECB c dm c rng nu h chi
chiu ny th h c s thnh cng nh the US FED cch y 2 nm v trc khng? V Eur nhiu qu
th s gy ra lm pht sau ny. y l cu hi nhc u cho the ECB, v l cu hi m cc anh dng
trade, ch khng phi ci tin the ECB s c gii php cu Greece vo cui tun. Tin c ra th bt
qu anh c a few good days. Hin tng ny cng s c v oversold market thui. Thnh ra, ci news
trn khng quan trng lm.

Market cui tun ny ang cn nhc hai s kin chnh: 1. ECB chi theo US FED or 2. Bt buc
Greece v cc quc gia khc theo chng trnh "tht lng buc bng"

1. ECB theo US FED = QE

Nu ECB chn con ng ny th Eur s i theo con ng ca USD hai nm qua. Chi chiu ny the
ECB nh c rng kinh t ca cng s pht trin trong tng lai ging US econ hin ti. Nhng chi
chiu ny th c ci nguy c lm pht. The US FED hn l h trnh c. ECB may not be that lucky.
l im th nht. V nu tnh cnh ny xy ra. Vng s c another run. Best trade here is the Gold
trade

2. Tht Lng Buc Bng: 1 trong nhng l do lm market te tua hm th nm l hnh nh m ngi
biu tnh trc QH Greece. Cuc biu tnh kh n ha hm . Nhng l du hiu 1 social unrest
ca tng lai. Nu Greece biu tnh nh th v chnh ph h nht quyt theo chng trnh tht lng
ny th hu qu l 1 social unrest. Ngi dn ca nhng quc gia nh Spain, Portugal, Italy cng s
38

theo dn Greek xung ng. Kt qu anh s c l mt vng t bt n ni chung. Eur v cng s
rt. Ni chung th ng Eur hin ti ang trong tnh cnh "trnh v da, gp v da." Thnh ra the
only direction is down for now.
10.05.10
Eurozone chn phng php th nht. l h sn sng flood the market w/ cheap Eur. Ci rescue
package hin ti gn 1 trillion Eur l 1 n tm l bnh an market. n tm l ny c work hay
khng th hin gi cha dm ni. Sng mai khi US m ca s c 1 loat short-covering trades trn US
market. Song song vi ci l short-covering trong EUR. Cu hi sp ti v thit thc hn sau ci
short-covering ny xong l WHAT'S NEXT? Thi gian vi ngy sp ti y khi CHI TIT ca ci
plan ny c cng b th lc market s tm k h ca n m t cu hi. V hng i sp ti ca
world market s da vo cc k h ny. Hin ti v for the next 24 hours l free trades, free money cho
nhng bc no mun kim bc l khi ngi ta cover the Euro trade.

@Xtrading68,

Khng 1 trade system no c th make $$$ vo nhng giai on nh ngy th 5 va qua. In fact,
nhng system phn ln s b cleaned out vo gi u ca cc t selling. Cc retail traders hu ht
ch c ai sophistication vit c 1 system NG trade. Cc anh vit c bao nhiu lines
of codes? Cover c bao nhiu trading scenarios? MT4 c sc cha nhng hon cnh tht kh
khn ca th trng khng? Money management ca system s ra sao khi selling vo mc cc ?
Cch y khng lu c xy ra v Goldman Sachs b chm ci trading codes, chc anh cn nh? Anh
bit ci systems ca n c bao nhiu lines of codes khng? 32K lines of codes . My ch retail ca
MT4 vit c bao nhiu lines? 1K lines cha? Hu ht my ch MT4 system traders u t gt mnh
khi h ngh rng ti c th vc cy kim cn ra trade vi the big guns in FX market. System trading
tht s khng bao gi c vit bng SCRIPT LANGUAGE nh MQL, Easy Language, AFL hay bt
c ci no khc. L do l n khng sc cha nhng g ngi ta mun codes, v quan trng hn
l ci SPEED m language execute. D nhin trnh ca ti th khng bao gi vit c 1 system
no ra hn c. V ti khng c hc computer language lc cn i hc. M c hc cng cha chc vit
c ci g. Cho nn ti chn phng cch ca a discretionary trader m chi. System tht s lun
c vit bng nature codes nh C++, or C# or VB hay 1 Net language no khc. Cn my ci nh
MT4 or Tradestation l chi ca retail. Anh khng bao gi make serious $$$ vi n c. Ti c 1
tiu xo m c th chng minh rng anh cho ti bt c ci system BA TRN no i na, ti s
backtest hay forward test n lun v lm cho n l 1 ci my in tin p nh m. Bo m khng p
khng n tin. l cch my ch bn system bn ngoi v ang lm. V nu ai di dt mua ci
system v m c banh go th rng chu. Tin th ti b ti trc. Mnh ti s vit tht r trong
quyn sch tng khng cho cc anh khi ti c c hi lm n vi VN.

39

17.05.10
Originally Posted by viettuan2
Bang ch c d on g v t suy dm ny ca dj ko?? Liu c nng k nh v ngn hng
nm xa ko v bang ch c th d on ci y ln ny l bao im ko??

Nu anh tnh theo measured move ca Fibonacci confluence point th ch s Dow c chng
1K to go. Target on the down side: 9.5K - 9.4K; tuy nhin target hin ti l 10K. l target
nu khng c g thay i. Ngc li, na chng m c g th all bets are off.

Mt iu m cc anh nn nh trong giai on ny l hy nh v khong thi gian hn 1 nm
v trc khi US market ln mi cho n bi gi. T n nay bit bao nhiu ngi mong cho
c 1 correction nhy vo? Market ln bt u t ngy 9th thng 3, 2009. Thot u ngi
ta ngi canh me mong n rt li nhy vo. Anh c a small correction vo thng 7/09.
Nhng ci correction khng ko di qu 1 tun. Sang n u nm 2010, ngi ta li
tng c thm 1 correction nhy vo. Ci cng trt lun. V hin ti th market ang
trong giai on correction. Nhng ngi ta th li ngh khc. Khi market correction theo ng
mnh mun th n khng ko di cho anh c c hi nhy vo. Ngc li, khi n
correct vi 1 tm ln ngi ta hong s nh hin ti th thin h li lo s v 1 vn khc.
H khng nhn thy y l 1 correction m h tng mong mun. Ngc li, h ngh rng y
l a 2008 re-run. Mt Deja Vu ca d vng. Nu tnh t ci low ca 09 th 2K points (11.5K -
9.5K) xem ra cng khng c ln cho lm. Trong market anh hy nh cu ny: EXPECT THE
UNEXPECTED. Tm dch: (hm....) Hy vng nhng iu khng ng nht.
19.05.10
US market li tr nn ln xn sau khi Germany ra lnh cm NAKED SHORT SALE trn German
market. Xin m du ngoc ti y ni r v ci gi l naked short sale. Naked SS c ngha l bn
short m khng c hng. Ci ny lun l vi phm lut cho bt c th trng no. Nhng s vic m
Germany tuyn b nh th cng lm cho market hong s. H nh li vic naked short ca cc US
banking stocks hai nm v trc. Investors khng ngh rng chnh ph Germany ang hnh lut 1 cch
bnh thng. Ngc li, ngi ta ngh rng the European banks, trong trng hp ny l German
banks, ang c problems. Yeah...V c problems ti sharks mi nhy vo kim n. Sophisticated
investors bit cch kha account khng cho mn hng (t limit orders) nn thin h lm u. Dng
nh ci mc 10K s c retest. Vn ch l thi gian thui.
20.05.10
Khong chng 1 ting v trc, c ch no jam in chng 30K contracts ca e-mini SP futures, to nn
1 ci big gap chng 20 pts. 20 pts on futures = 120 pts on the Dow. S kin ny lm cho ngi ta nh
n hm th 5 cch y 2 tun v trc khi market c ci "flash crash." Ci e-mini futures ny cng l
ci m to nn crash hm . Nh ni cch y 2 ngy, khi Germany banned Naked short sale trn
cc asset class nh government bonds, CDS n khng tng lng tin tng ca gii u t nh ngh.
Ngc li, n lm cho ngi ta s thm. Hnh nh ca post-Lehman li hin v khi BAC, JPM, C,
WFC cng nhau rt lin tip v ngi ta ngh the US banks lc c th l INSOLVENT (khng bit
ting Vit gi l g...tm gi l ht tin). By gi khi nghe tin ny ngi ta cng on l German banks
C TH tr nn insolvent. Ngoi ra, dn Greek li ko nhau xung ng biu tnh trc quc hi
chng o lut Austerity cn thit gim n. Ci package 1 trillions EUR hm trc, tuy c coi l
40

, nhng ngi ta tin l n khng c th tr thnh s tht. Eur ni ring as a currency th dng nh
slow down t, khng cn rt mnh nh my ba trc. Nhng equity world-wide th te tua. The next
one on the bloc? Try China. Yeah...China.