H H TR RA QUYT NH

Phan Hin
TNG QUAN
Vn
S pht trin ca nn kinh t, s pht trin
ca doanh nghip.
S bng n trong lnh vc truyn thng v
cng ngh Ngun cung cp thng tin a
dng v rng ln.
Tnh cnh tranh gia cc doanh nghip ngy
cng cao.
Vai tr v tm quan trng ca quyt nh
trong doanh nghip c nng cao.

Ra quyt nh qun l
Trong doanh nghip, vic qun l c xem
xt nh l mt ngh thut trong vic ra
quyt nh.
Ra quyt nh ch yu da ti nng c c
t kinh nghim bn thn (bng phng
php th sai).
Ra quyt nh ph thuc nhiu vo yu t
sau: (1) tnh sng to (2) kh nng phn
on (3) trc gic (4) kinh nghim.
Ra quyt nh qun l
Ra quyt nh l iu v cng kh khn v
phc tp v nhiu nguyn do:
Qu nhiu cc phng n thay th.
Sc p v nh hng vi quyt nh sai. (nh
hng tm l)
Mi trng lun bin i (tnh khng chc chn
ca mi trng)
Yu cu quyt nh phi hp thi (tnh thi gian
thc ca quyt nh)

S pht trin ca my tnh
S pht trin ca my tnh gip trong
vic ra quyt nh v cc kha cnh:
Tnh ton
Lin lc
Qun l thng tin
Thi gian
S kt hp vi my tnh v k thut hnh
thnh nn cc cng c h tr ra quyt nh.
Decision Support Systems

H h tr ra quyt nh l h cc phng
php x l d liu ly tri thc nhm la
chn phng n ti u theo mc tiu.

Mc ch l h tr vic ra quyt nh ca nh
qun l theo mc tiu ra.
Cc yu t quan trng

D liu
Tri thc
M hnh, phng php la chn
Quy trnh ra quyt nh
Quy trnh chia lm 3 giai on
Thu thp: Ly yu cu, yu t mi trng, d liu
x l c thng tin, tri thc,
Thit k: Xy dng cc phng n thay th, cc
rng buc, cc phng php o lng. nh
hnh cc phng php la chn.
La chn: S dng cc tri thc, thng tin thu
c cng vi cc phng php hay m hnh la
chn ( bc thit k) la chn, nh gi cc
phng n.

Giai on La chn
M hnh tiu chun
(Normative models)
S la chn phng n tt nht. iu ny cn
bn da trn nguyn l ti u.
Tm phng n c th t mc tiu cao nht
Tm phn n c t l cao nht gia ci t c trn
ci khng t c (hay ph tn).
Tm phng n ci khng t c l t nht
M hnh ton ho php
(Descriptive models)
Giai on La chn
M hnh tho mn
(Satisficing)
Quan tm n hnh vi
S khao kht mc tiu
M hnh t sinh phng n ph hp
(Generating alternatives)
M hnh kch bn
(scenario What if analysis)
Cc loi quyt nh
Quyt nh c th c chia lm nhiu cp
t quyt nh c cu trc hon ton n
quyt nh hon ton khng c cu trc.

C cu trc hay khng c cu trc l da vo
s r rng, mp m hay tnh phc tp ca cc
yu t trong 3 giai on ca ra quyt nh.
Ra quyt nh
Thit lp
Phng n n
Phng n n-1
Phng n 3
Phng n 2
Phng n 1
Phng php truyn thng trong to lp quyt nh
La chn
Mc
ch
Rng
buc
Quyt
nh
D
liu
Ra quyt nh
Thit lp
Phng n n
Phng n n-1
Phng n 3
Phng n 2
Phng n 1
To lp quyt nh c s dng tri thc
La chn PA
Mc
ch
Rng
buc
Quyt
nh
X

l
i

u

D
liu
Tri
thc
Tri
thc
Vn gp phi

Xc nh vn ?
La chn d liu cho ph hp ?
M t tri thc & s dng tri thc th no ?
Bao nhiu cc phng n mi l ?
La chn th no hng mc tiu, vi tri
thc v rng buc?
Yu t nh hng t mi trng ?
Phn loi DSS
To lm 5 xu hng chnh

Model Driven
Data Driven
Communication Driven
Document Driven
Knowledge Driven
Model Driven
M hnh vn dng cc m hnh ton ti
chnh, cc m hnh d bo, ti u, v cc m
hnh gi lp a ra s h tr trong cc
quyt nh ca mt vn .
D liu thng b gii hn v tham s,
khng gian (thng theo cc m hnh ton)
V d: M hnh h tr iu xe cho t tn chi
ph v n cc ni (bi ton vn ti)
Phn loi DSS
To lm 5 xu hng chnh

Model Driven
Data Driven
Communication Driven
Document Driven
Knowledge Driven
Data Driven
M hnh s dng cc d liu c tnh cht l
chui hay thi gian to lp cc bo co
gip cho vic ra quyt nh.
M hnh phi phn tch v rt trch d liu
to lp cc bo co tng hp, cc thng
tin theo mc ch.
V sau pht trin vi cc ng dng gi l
Data WareHouse
Phn loi DSS
To lm 5 xu hng chnh

Model Driven
Data Driven
Communication Driven
Document Driven
Knowledge Driven
Communication Driven
M hnh ny quan tm n vic h tr ra
quyt nh di dng nhm.
Gii quyt nhng vn ca nhm ngi
cng ra quyt nh
Nhiu phng n khc nhau la chn
Nhiu cch gii quyt khc nhau
Phng php kt ni gia nhm ra quyt nh
Phn loi DSS
To lm 5 xu hng chnh

Model Driven
Data Driven
Communication Driven
Document Driven
Knowledge Driven
Document Driven
M hnh s dng cc phng php phn
tch v rt trch thng tin dng vn bn (c
th l vn bn, ti liu nh, phim, m
thanh,).
V d: h thng h tr nh qun tr nhn
thc thi v th hiu tiu dng ca khch
hng qua cc thng tin phn hi (c th l
th t, hay hnh nh nt mt ca khch
hng khi ti cng ty,). Cc h khai thc d
liu trn mng (web mining).
Phn loi DSS
To lm 5 xu hng chnh

Model Driven
Data Driven
Communication Driven
Document Driven
Knowledge Driven
Knowledge Driven
M hnh s dng h thng qun l tri thc
p dng vo vic ra quyt nh.
Thng dng cho nhng kiu d liu t c
hay khng c cu trc, hay loi d liu
khng tng minh.
Thng p dng cho mt lnh vc chuyn
ngy hp.
S dng cc phng php tr tu nhn to
S pht trin dn hnh thnh nn cc h
thng gi l h chuyn gia (Expert System)
Kin trc DSS
Bao gm 4 phn cn bn
H thng ngn ng
(Language System LS)
H thng th hin
(Presentation System PS)
H thng tri thc
(Knowledge System KS)
H thng x l
(Problem Processing System PPS)
Kin trc DSS
Ngi ra
quyt nh

Ngi
nhn tri
thc

Ngi
pht trin

Nh qun
tr
..
- Tip nhn d
liu, thng tin,
v c tri thc
- Ni giao tip
ngi dng
-Xut thng tin,
tri thc ra cho
ngi dng.
- Ra quyt nh
dng h tr

- Ly d liu.
- Ly tri thc.
- Chn lc.
- Chun ha.
-----------

- o lng
- So snh
- iu khin
- Suy din



- M t tri
thc.

- X l tri
thc.

- Suy din
trn tri thc.


Ngi dng H thng ngn ng
H thng x l H thng tri thc
H thng th hin
Mt s vn

Ngn ng l vn ln
Cch th hin tri thc
Qun l tri thc
Phng php x l tri thc

S bin i trong kin trc ca DSS hnh
thnh nn mt s dng ring bit.
DSS hng chui (Text oriented)
Quan tm n x l chui trong vic t tri
thc t li ni, pht biu, thng tin t bo
ch,
M t tri thc dng chui (n gn vi con
ngi, v t c tnh cu trc)
Pht trin dn thnh x l thng tin trn
WEB (HyperText), c th c Hyperlink, v
XML ng ngha.
DSS hng d liu (Data oriented)
Khai thc d liu dng bng t v m t
tri thc.
u im l d liu mang tnh cu trc,
nhng li khng gn vi con ngi.
Thng s dng cc ngn ng truy vn cu
trc khai thc.
Thng kt hp cc m hnh ton v nn
tng xc sut thng k.

SpreadSheet oriented DSS
S pht trin ca hng d liu, to ra bng
d liu c ng ngha cao hn.
Tp cc , v c tnh nng lp cc cng thc
cho . Gip ch cho vic tng hp d liu tt
v v biu thng qua cc m hnh tnh
ton.
To iu kin tt cho ly v th hin thng
tin tri thc.


DSS hng gii php (Solve oriented)
Quan tm nhiu n gii php h tr cc
gii php cho vn .
Cc gii php ch yu l bi ton ti chnh,
cc bi ton d bo, ti u, ln k hoch .
Hng ny quan tm nhiu n vic t sinh,
kt hp hay la chn gii php cho bi ton.

DSS hng lut (Rule oriented)
M phng s ra quyt nh ca con ngi
vi dng cc suy din kiu nu th .
Hng m t tri thc qua cc lut.
Ch yu l cc h chuyn gia trong lnh vc
hp no .

Ngi ra
quyt nh

Ngi
nhn tri
thc

Ngi
pht trin

Nh qun
tr
..
- Tip nhn d
liu, thng tin,
v c tri thc
- Ni giao tip
ngi dng
-Xut thng tin,
tri thc ra cho
ngi dng.
- Ra quyt nh
dng h tr

- Ly d liu.
- Ly tri thc.
- Chn lc.
- Chun ha.
-----------

- o lng
- So snh
- iu khin
- Suy din

X l
- Hng chui
- Hng d
liu.
- Hng
SpreadSheet
- Hng gii
php.
- Hng lut
- .
------------------
- Suy din
Ngi dng
H thng ngn ng
H thng x l H thng tri thc
H thng th hin
DSS t hp (Compound)
L s kt hp cc phng php trc
DSS v tri thc

Tt c u c thnh phn suy din tri thc.
Mi mt kiu DSS c th c suy din t n
gin n phc tp.
Mi mt kiu DSS c th c c ch lu gi
v khai thc tri thc khc nhau.
Thch thc cho DSS
T ngi s dng
Tnh kh thi ca DSS.
phc tp
Chi ph
K thut
Tnh ng dng ca DSS
ng dng trong nhiu lnh vc ? Lnh vc no ?
C th thay th cc chuyn gia ?
tin cy ca DSS ?