Country lndustry Forecast

Report 5ervice
The lndian TeIecon lndustry
1996 - 2006
The |nolan Telecom |noustry
AvaiIabIe as part of ClF
TeIecon 5ubscription 9907-H1
Country lndustry Forecast {ClF) ~
your tooI to gauge how a country's
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Report 4504 - 90
Structurcl Re(orms to Accelercte conomc Growth
The |nolan economy ls on the path ot resurgence. The graoual openlng up ot the economy
ensureo steaoy growth even at a tlme when other countrles were ln the grlp ot a masslve
slowoown. Progresslve retorms such as the removal ot restrlctlons on torelgn lnvestment
ano lnoustrlal oellcenslng are responslble tor thls growth. Tallorlng the LX|M pollcy to
promote eports ano allgnlng the lmport outles to meet WTO commltments turther
contrlbuteo to thls oevelopment. Thls treno ls epecteo to contlnue ln the net tlve years,
orlven by a tavorable buslness pollcy envlronment ln terms ot ta cuts, broaoenlng ta base,
ano reouceo lnterest rates on borrowlngs.
Such structural changes have hao a posltlve lmpact on the telecommunlcatlons sector ano a
compouno annual growth rate (CAGP) ot 13.42 per cent ls estlmateo tor 2002-2006. The
tuture ot the lnoustry lles ln the malnllne ano cellular segments ano constant technologlcal
lnnovatlons such as |nternet Protocol (|P)-baseo servlces. Pevenues trom volce servlces
wlll eperlence sustalneo growth even as those trom oata servlces are epecteo to lncrease
sharply oue to a surge ln usage. The telecommunlcatlons lnoustry ln |nola ls llkely to see
consolloatlon among major operators ano prlvatlzatlon ot many Government companles.
The Country |noustry Forecast tor the |nolan telecom lnoustry stuoles the country-specltlc
tactors such as polltlcs, buslness pollcy, ano macroeconomlc lnolcators that have an lmpact
on thls sector ano lts maln segments. Thls report provloes lnclslve analysls ot the lnoustry
tor 1996-2001 as well as torecasts tor 2002-2006.
Procctve Polces. Key to Iuture Growth
|nola's move towaro globallzatlon, especlally ln the telecom sector, has to be orlven by
transparent pollcles ano better market conoltlons to attract torelgn lnvestments. Accorolng
to thls report, The recent pollcy stance ot openlng ot the lnternatlonal long olstance (|LD)
segment ano legallzatlon ot |nternet telephony shoulo result ln huge lnvestment ln the
lnoustry. However, the Government, on lts part, shoulo ensure an envlronment conouclve
to torelgn partlclpatlon by lncreaslng the FD| llmlt ano tollowlng transparent pollcles.
Cellulcr Subscrbers cnd Revenues (or Robust Growth
The entry ot new operators ano the lntroouctlon ot novel servlces coupleo wlth the
lncreaslng lmportance ot wlreless communlcatlon are tactors that are llkely to contrlbute
to the growth ln the number ot subscrlbers ln the cellular segment. As the report says, |n
the last quarter ot 2001, the number ot subscrlbers hao reacheo the 5 mllllon mark oue to
the contlnuous tall ln alrtlme rates, achlevlng 0.5 percent moblle penetratlon ln |nola. Pevenues
trom cellular phones are epecteo to grow at a CAGP ot 37.29 percent ourlng the torecast
perloo wlth hlgher oata usage ano multlmeola servlces.
TabIe of Contents
1. Executive 5unnary
1.1. |ntroouctlon ano Segment
Analysls
A. |ntroouctlon
8. Segment Analysls
1.2. Summary ot Major Flnolngs
A. Country Trenos ano Forecasts
8. |noustry Trenos ano Forecasts
2. Overview of the TeIeconnunica-
tions lndustry
2.1. |noustry Detlnltlon ano
Global Overvlew
A. |noustry Detlnltlon
8. Global Overvlew
2.2. Peglonal ano Country
Overvlews
A. Peglonal Overvlew
8. Country Overvlew
3. lndustry 5tructure and Key
Paraneters
3.1. Segments ano Parameters
A. |noustry Segments
8. Parameters
3.2. Growth Determlnants ano
Country-|noustry Llnkage
A. Growth Determlnants
8. Country-|noustry Llnkage
4. PoIiticaI AnaIysis and its lnpIication
for the TeIeconnunications lndustry
4.1. |nola Polltlcal System
A. Polltlcal System
8. Polltlcal Partles
4.2. Government Pollcles ano
Agenoas
A. Government Agenoa
8. Forelgn Pollcles ano |nterna-
tlonal Pelatlons
C. Telecommunlcatlon Pollcles
D. Summary ot Polltlcal |mpllca-
tlons on the Lconomy ano the
|noustry
5. Business PoIicy AnaIysis and its
lnpIications for the TeIeconnunica-
tions lndustry
5.1. Domestlc ano Lternal
Pollcles
A. Domestlc Pollcles
8. Lternal Pollcles
5.2. |noustry Acts ano Multllateral
Agreements
A. |noustry Acts ano Multllateral
Agreements
8. Summary ot |mpllcatlons ot
the 8uslness Pollcy on the
Lconomy ano the |noustry
6. Econonic AnaIysis and its lnpIica-
tions on the TeIeconnunications
lndustry
6.1. Trenos ano Forecasts tor the
Lconomlc |nolcators . Consump-
tlon ano |nvestment
A. Consumptlon
8. |nvestment
6.2. Trenos ano Forecasts tor the
Lconomlc |nolcators . Lternal
Markets ano Forelgn |nvestment
A. Lports ano |mports
8. Current Account Detlclt ano
Forelgn Lchange Peserve
C. Forelgn |nvestment
D. Lchange Pate |nterest Pate
ano Capltal Market
6.3. Trenos ano Forecasts tor the
Lconomlc |nolcators . Labor
Markets
A. Populatlon Lmployment ano
Larnlngs
8. Labor Laws ano Pegulatlons
6.4. Trenos ano Forecasts tor the
Lconomlc |nolcators . Prlces ano
GDP
A. Prlces
8. GDP
6.5. Summary ot the |mpllcatlons
on the Telecommunlcatlons
|noustry
A. Telecommunlcatlon Prlces
8. |nvestment
7. Trends and Forecasts for the
TeIeconnunications lndustry
7.1. Trenos ano Forecasts tor
Telecommunlcatlon Servlces
A. Malnllne Subscrlbers
8. Domestlc Malnllne Segment
C. |nternatlonal Malnllne
Segment
D. Cellular Segment
L. Paolo Paglng Segment
7.2. Trenos ano Forecasts tor the
Telecommunlcatlon Lqulpment
Segment
A. |ntroouctlon
8. Proouctlon Lports ano
|mports
7.3. Total Telecommunlcatlons
Servlces ano Lqulpment
Segments
A. Telecommunlcatlons Servlces
Segment
8. Telecommunlcatlons Lqulp-
ment Segment
8. lndustry Progression lndex
8.1. Methooology tor the
|noustry Progresslon |noe
A. |noe Methooology
8. Welghts Asslgneo to the Key
Parameters ot the |noustry
Fact 5heet
1. Country Fact Sheet
A. Geography Demography ano
|ntrastructure
8. Lconomlc |nolcators
2. Peglonal ano |noustry Fact Sheets
A. Asla Pacltlc. Peglonal Fact
Sheet
8. |nola. Telecom |noustry
Fact Sheet
Appendix
List of Figures
8.2. Progresslon |noe tor the
Telecommunlcatlons |noustry ln
|nola
A. Progresslon |noe tor the
Segments ot the |noustry
8. |noustry Progresslon |noe
Trenos ano Forecasts tor the Key Lconomlc
|nolcators (|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor the Telecommunl-
catlons |noustry (|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos tor the Telecommunlcatlons Markets
(Worlo), 1996-2000
Trenos tor the Telecommunlcatlons Market
(Asla Pacltlc), 2000
Contrlbutlon ot the Telecommunlcatlons
|noustry to the GDP (|nola), 1996-2000
Share ot the Telecommunlcatlons |noustry ln
Total Lports ano |mports (|nola), 1996-2000
Trenos tor the Telecommunlcatlons |noustry
as a Percentage ot lts Segments (|nola),
1996-2000
Summary ot the Key Features ot the
Parllament (|nola)
Posltlon ot the Polltlcal Partles ln the
Parllament (|nola), 2002
Chronol ogy ot Governments (|nol a),
1990-2001
Total Pevenues ano Lpenolture tor the
Government (|nola), Flscal Year 1996-97
2001-02
Central Pl an Lpenol ture tor varl ous
Sectors by the Government (|nola), Flscal
Year 1996-97 -2001-02
General Peak Tarltt Pate (|nola), August 1,
1998
Status ot Forelgn Dlrect |nvestment Pollcy
ln Selecteo Sectors (|nola), 2001
Sector-Wl se Share ot Forel gn Dl rect
|nvestment Approveo (|nola), 1991-2001
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Consumptlon
Lpenolture ano lts Components (|nola),
1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Gross Savlngs ano
lts Components ano Householo Savlngs
Pates (|nola), 1996-2001
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Gross Domestlc
|nvestment ano lts Components (|nola),
1996-2006
Treno ano Forecasts tor Lports ano |mports
(|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Current Account
Detlclt ano Forelgn Lchange Peserves
(|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Forelgn Dlrect
|nvestment ano Forelgn Porttollo |nvestment
(|nola), 1996-2006
|nolan Pupee Agalnst the Dollar, 1996-2001.
8ank Pate ot the Peserve 8ank (|nola),
1996-2001
Populatlon ano Unemployment Pate (|nola),
1996-2006
Wholesale Prlce |noe, Consumer Prlce
|noe, ano |ntlatlon (|nola), 1996-2006
Summary ot |mpact ot |mportant Macroeco-
nomlc |nolcators on the Future Course ot
the Lconomy (|nola), 2002-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor GDP (|nola),
1996-2006
Call Pates tor the Subscrlbers ln the Pural
ano Urban Areas (|nola)
Composltlon ot Subscrlbers ano Pevenue
Generateo by varlous Categorles (|nola),
2000
Segment-Wlse Cumulatlve Forelgn Dlrect
|nvestment |ntlow ln the Telecommunlcatlons
|noustry (|nola), 1991-2001
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Forelgn Dlrect
|nvestment ln the Telecommunlcatlons |nous-
try (|nola), 1996-2006
Waltlng Llst tor Malnllne Connectlons
(|nola), 1996-2000
Trenos ano Forecasts tor the Number ot
Subscrlbers ln the Malnllne Segment (|nola),
1996-2006
Trenos tor the Number ot |nternet Subscrlb-
ers ot the |nternet (|nola), 1996-2001
Categor y of user- groups
Telecom Lqulpment Manutacturers
Senlor Lecutlves
COO s ano CLOs
Presloents ano vlce Presloents
Traoe ano 8uslness Assoclatlons
|noustry ano Manutacturers Assoclatlons
8anks ano Multl-Natlonal Corporatlons
Trans-Natlonal Corporatlons
Flnanclal |nstltutlons
Asset Management Companles
venture Capltallsts
Analysts
|noustry Observers
Plannlng 8oaros
8uslness Development Managers
Country Managers
Forecasters ano Lconomlc Trackers
Merchant 8ankers
C|F ls an lnolspensable tool tor the tollowlng
groups.
Senlor level oeclslon-makers ano
planners who tormulate company
strategles tor varlous lnoustrles.
|noustry analysts ano lnoustry
observers who look tor country-
specltlc lnoustry lntelllgence.
Marketlng protesslonals who want
to know the 'lay ot the lano' ano
the 'pulse ot the market'.
C|F ls benetlclal tor companles.
Lnterlng a new geographlcal
market
Maklng strateglc oeclslons on
alllances, mergers, ano acqulsltlons.
Learnlng how the non-market
torces attect your company's
present pertormance ln a country.
[uoglng the etent ot competltlon
taceo by varlous lnoustrles ln a
country.
Shaplng ano tlne-tunlng tuture
strategles baseo on new market
opportunltles.
Preparlng contlngency plans baseo
on the llkely scenarlos.
Maklng ln-oepth mlcro research on
varlous lnoustrles.
Th e Cl F Ad v a n t a g e
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Capltal Lpenol-
ture ln the Domestlc Malnllne Segment
(|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Pevenues trom the
Domestl c Mal nl l ne Segment (|nol a),
1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Palo Mlnutes ln the
|nternatlonal Malnllne Segment (|nola),
1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Capltal Lpenol-
ture ln the |nternatlonal Malnllne Segment
(|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Pevenues ln the
|nternatlonal Malnllne Segment (|nola),
1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Average Pevenue
per User ln the |nternatlonal Malnllne
Segment (|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor the Number ot
Subscrlbers ano Pevenues ot the Cellular
Segment (|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor the Number ot
Subscrlbers ano Pevenues ot the Paolo
Paglng Segment (|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Pevenues ot the
Telecommunlcatlons Servlces Segment
(|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Proouctlon ln the
Telecommunlcatlons Lqulpment Segment
(|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor Lports ano
|mports ot the Tel ecommunl catl ons
Lqulpment Segment (|nola), 1996-2006
Trenos ano Forecasts tor the Telecommunl-
catl ons Lqul pment Segment (|nol a),
1996-2006
Welghts Asslgneo to the Key Parameters ano
Segments ot the Tel ecommunl catl ons
|noustry (|nola)
Progresslon |noe tor the Telecommunlca-
tlons |noustry ano lts Segments (|nola),
1996-2006
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