2554 2555

THAILAND'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2011-2012 : SEPTEMBER

http://www.fpo.go.th

THAILANDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2011-2012

FISCAL POLICY OFFICE

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THAILANDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2011-2012 : SEPTEMBER

FISCAL POLICY OFFICE

1.

Executive Summary
2554 2555 ( 2554)
1.1 2554 2555
1.2 2554 2555

3
7
11
12
30

2. : 11 2554

43

3. : Macroeconomic Analysis Briefings

3.1 CPI PPI
3.2
3.3 2554
3.4 2554
3.5
3.6 :
3.7 ...
3.8 :

51
59
66
75
81
89
99
109

4. : 3 2554

116

5. Thailands Key Economic Indicators

120

:

02-273-9020 3257 02-298-5602 / 02-618-3397
http:// www.fpo.go.th


2554 2555
( 2554)
2554 2555

2554
2555
(.) 2554 4.0
3.8-4.3






2554

2 2554 2554
3.8 ( 3.6-4.1)

2555
4.5 ( 4.0-5.0)




2555 3.3 (
2.8-3.8)

1. 2554
1.1
2554 4.0 3.8-4.3
3.9 (

 3.8-4.8)



2554
13.2 ( 12.7-13.7)
13.9


2554
15.0 ( 14.5-15.5) 2554
11.3 ( 10.8-11.8)
2554 10.5

2554 2.7 ( 2.2-3.2)
2555 4
-1.4 ( -1.9 -0.9)
2 2554
-35.2 -5.9
1.2
2554 3.8
( 3.6-4.1 )

0.7 ( 0.6-0.8 )
13.5
3.7 GDP ( 3.5-4.0 GDP)
9.5 ( 8.5-10.5 )
2554 26.6 ( 26.1-27.1)
2554 22.3 ( 21.8-22.8)

2. 2555
2.1
2555 4.5 4.0-5.0

4.4 ( 3.9-4.9)

10.9 ( 9.9-11.9)



2555
2555
5.5 ( 4.5-6.5)
10.3 ( 9.3-11.3) 2555
2.8 ( 2.3-3.3) 2555
5.5 ( 4.5-6.5)
2.2
2555 3.3 (
2.8-3.8) 2554


2554
0.7 ( 0.6-0.8
) 9.0
2.2 GDP ( 1.7-2.7 GDP)
6.0 ( 5.0-7.0 )
2554 15.8
( 14.8-16.7) 13.7 (
12.7-14.7)

 2554 2555 ( 2554)

2553

2554 f
( 2554)

2555 f
( 2554)

1) 14 ()
4.8
2) ()
78.2
3) ()
9.1
4) ()
8.1

5) ()
31.7
6) ()
2.00
7) ()
2.52

7.8
1) ()
2) ()
5.1
- ( ) ()
4.8
- ( ) ()
6.4
3) ()
9.4
- ( ) ()
13.8
- ( ) ()
-2.2
4) () 14.7
5) () 21.5
6) ()
14.0
- ()
28.5
- ()
36.8
7) ()
14.8
- GDP
4.6
8) ()
3.3
()
0.9
9) ()
1.0
f = (.)

3.2
3.0-3.5
3.5
3.0-4.0
101.0 96.0-106.0 115.0 110.0-120.0
7.0
6.5-7.5
7.5
6.5-8.5
10.0 9.5-10.5
4.5
3.5-5.5
30.5
3.50
2.81

30.3-30.8
3.25-3.75
2.80-2.82

30.0
3.75
2.95

29.0-31.0
3.25-4.00
2.93-2.96

4.0
3.8-4.3
3.7
3.2-4.2
3.9
3.4-4.4
2.7
2.2-3.2
7.4
6.9-7.9
11.3 10.8-11.8
-1.4 -1.9 -0.9
13.2 12.7-13.7
15.0 14.5-15.5
9.5
8.5-10.5
22.3 21.8-22.8
26.6 26.1-27.1
13.5 12.1-13.9
3.7
3.5-4.0
3.8
3.6-4.1
2.5
2.3-2.8
0.7
0.6-0.8

4.5
4.2
4.4
2.8
8.3
10.9
5.5
5.5
10.3
6.0
13.7
15.8
9.0
2.2
3.3
2.3
0.7

4.0-5.0
3.7-4.7
3.9-4.9
2.3-3.3
7.8-8.8
9.9-11.9
4.5-6.5
4.5-6.5
9.3-11.3
5.0-7.0
12.7-14.7
14.8-16.8
6.9-10.9
1.7-2.7
2.8-3.8
1.8-2.8
0.6-0.8

Executive Summary

Thailands Economic Projection for 2011 and 2012

(As of September 2011)
Thailands Economic Outlook Projection 2011

The Thai economy in 2011 is expected to expand moderately due to global economic concerns,
and is expected to grow steadily in 2012
The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), Ministry of Finance, announced that Thai economy in 2011 will grow at an
annualized rate of 4.0 percent (or within a range of 3.8-4.3 percent). The rate of growth is lower than previous
year due to a slowdown in domestic demand, in particular in private consumption, as a result of flooding situation
in the northern, central and northeastern provinces of Thailand as well as inflationary concern. Meanwhile, the
export volume in 2011 is expected to expand at a high rate driven by higher than expected growth in the first half
of 2011. However, the US economic slowdown and the European sovereign debt crisis continue to pose downside
risks that may adversely affect the exports of goods and services. Private investment is expected to grow steadily
and support higher domestic demand for the remainder of the year buoyed by the recovery from Japans tsunami
disaster in Q2/2011. For internal stability, headline inflation in 2011 is likely to rise to 3.8 percent (or within a range
of 3.6-4.1 percent) due to higher costs of production especially from raw food costs which have been pressured by
poor weather conditions and the increase in energy prices.
Looking forward, the Thai economy in 2012 is forecasted to continue its steady growth at an annualized
rate of 4.5 percent (or within a range of 4.0-5.0 percent). Domestic and external demand will both continue to drive
economic growth. High employment coupled with government policies to stimulate domestic spending such as a
higher minimum wage policy and a higher salarys threshold for newly recruited government officials will contribute
to next year consumption. With regard to internal stability, inflation in 2012 is forecasted to rise at 3.3 percent (or
within a range of 2.8-3.8 percent) which is lower than this year as crude oil price is forecasted to be more stable
due to moderate global oil demand growth.

1. Thailands Economic Projections for 2011

1.1 Economic Growth
The Thai economy in 2011 will grow at an annualized rate of 4.0 percent (or within a range of 3.8-4.3 percent),
lower than previous year due to a slowdown in domestic demand. Private consumption is projected to continually
expand at 3.9 percent (or within a range of 3.8-4.8 percent), lower than last years level. This is mainly due to the
flooding situation in the northern, central and northeastern provinces of Thailand, as well as inflationary concern.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rate and income level remain strong owing to an increase in farm income due to a

gradual rise in the prices of major commodity products and stronger tourism income which are projected to support
private consumption growth. Meanwhile, the export volume in 2011 is estimated to expand at 13.2 percent (or within
a range of 12.7-13.7 percent) driven by an increase in the exports of goods and services in the first half of 2011.
Uncertainty of the continued US recovery along with European sovereign debt crisis to pose downside risks that may
lower exports of goods and services in 2011. At the same time, imports of goods and services in real terms are set
to grow at roughly 15.0 percent (or within a range of 14.5-15.5 percent) lower than previous year. Private investment
is likely to grow robustly at 11.3 percent (or within a range of 10.8-11.8 percent) as it grew at the increasing rate of
10.5 percent in the first half of 2011. Business sentiment remains strong and entrepreneurs are expected to expand
their investments in response to the higher domestic demand. Public consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.7
percent (or within a range of 2.2-3.2 percent ) slower than last years rate owing to the delay in the budget disbursement plan in fiscal year 2012 which will impact fiscal outlays in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, public investment is
projected to contract at -1.4 percent (or within a range of -1.9 to -0.9 percent) because of the slowdown in budgetary
capital expenditure disbursement in the second quarter of 2011, in particular lower local government spending in
the first half of the year negative at -5.9 percent year on year.
1.2 Economic Stability
For internal stability, headline inflation in 2011 is likely to rise to 3.8 percent (or within a range of 3.6-4.1 percent)
as a result of higher costs of production, especially from raw food costs associated with adverse climate conditions
and increase in energy prices. Unemployment is expected to hold its current low level of 0.7 percent of the total
labor force (or within a range of 0.6-0.8 percent). For external stability, the current account is projected to record a
smaller surplus of USD 13.5 billion, accounting for 3.7 percent of GDP (or within a range of 3.5-4.0 percent of GDP)
as the estimated trade balance surplus declines to USD 9.5 billion (or within a range of USD 8.5-10.5 billion). This
is partially explained by accelerated import growth of 26.6 percent (or within a range of 26.1-27.1 percent) due to
an increase in import prices in world markets. However, the total export value is likely to grow by 22.3 percent (or
within a range of 21.8-22.8 percent).

2. Thailands Economic Projections for 2012

2.1 Economic Growth
The Thai economy in 2012 is forecasted to continue its steady growth at an annualized rate of 4.5 percent (or
within a range of 4.0-5.0 percent) driven by both domestic and external demand. Private consumption is projected
to grow at 4.4 percent (or within a range of 3.9-4.9 percent). High employment coupled with government policies
to stimulate domestic spending, such as a higher minimum wage policy and a higher salarys threshold for newly
recruited government officials will contribute for next year consumption. On the other hand, private investment is
estimated to grow at 10.9 percent (or within a range of 9.9-11.9 percent per year) supported by domestic spending
and external demand as a result of an increase in private confidence. As the global recovery continues following
Japans tsunami disaster, export volume is expected to continually expand at 5.5 percent (or within the range of 4.56.5 percent) though the magnitude is expected to be lower than previous year, with downside risks from developed
economies. At the same time, import volume is set to grow at 10.3 percent (or within the range of 9.3-11.3 percent).
With respect to public spending, public consumption is likely to grow at 2.8 percent (or within a range of 2.3-3.3

percent) with the continuation of the budgetary disbursement plan in 2012, while acceleration of public investment
is projected to grow at 5.5 percent (or within a range of 4.5-6.5 percent).
2.2 Economic Stability
For internal stability, inflation in 2012 is forecasted to rise at 3.3 percent (or within a range of 2.8-3.8 percent) as
crude oil price is forecasted to be more stable due to moderate global growth of oil demand. The economic projection
has taken into consideration the possibility that the government may extend some living-cost subsidization policies
due to end in December 2011. Unemployment is expected to hold its current low level of 0.7 percent of the total labor
force (or within a range of 0.6-0.8 percent). For external stability, the current account in 2012 is projected to record
a smaller surplus of USD 9.0 billion accounting for 2.2 percent of GDP (or within a range of 1.7-2.7 percent of GDP)
as the estimated trade balance surplus drops to USD 6.0 billion (or within a range of USD 5.0-7.0 billion) partially
explained by accelerated import growth which is expected to increase to 15.8 percent per year (or within a range of
14.8-16.7 percent). However, export value is likely to grow at 13.7 percent (or within a range of 12.7-14.7 percent ).
Summary table is attached herewith.

Major Assumptions and Economic Projections of 2011 and 2012 (As of September 2011)
2011 f
2012 f
2010
(As of Sep 2011) (As of Sep 2011)
Average Range Average Range
Major Assumptions
Exogenous Variables
1) Average Economic Growth Rate of Major Trading Partners
(% y-o-y)
2) Dubai Crude Oil Price (USD per Barrel)
3) Export price in USD Dollars (% y-o-y)
4) Import price in USD Dollars (% y-o-y)
Policy Variables
5) Exchange Rate (Baht per USD Dollars)
6) Repurchase Rate (Policy Rate) at year-end (% y-o-y)
7) Fiscal-Year Pubic Expenditure (Trillion Baht)
Projections
1) Economic Growth Rate (% y-o-y)
2) Real Consumption Growth (% y-o-y)
- Real Private Consumption
- Real Public Consumption
3) Real Investment Growth (% y-o-y)
- Real Private Investment
- Real Public Investment
4) Export Volume of Goods and Services (% y-o-y)
5) Import Volume of Goods and Services (% y-o-y)
6) Trade Balance (USD billion)
- Export Value of Goods in USD Dollars (% y-o-y)
- Import Value of Goods in USD Dollars (% y-o-y)
7) Current Account (USD billion)
- Percentage of GDP
8) Headline Inflation (% y-o-y)
Core Inflation (% y-o-y)
9) Unemployment rate (% of total labor force)
f = forecast by Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance, Thailand

10

4.8

3.2

3.0-3.5

3.5

3.0-4.0

78.2
9.1
8.1

101.0 96.0-106.0 115.0 110.0-120.0

7.0
6.5-7.5
7.5
6.5-8.5
10.0 9.5-10.5
4.5
3.5-5.5

31.7
2.00
2.52

30.5
3.50
2.81

30.3-30.8
3.25-3.75
2.80-2.82

30.0
3.75
2.95

29.0-31.0
3.25-4.00
2.93-2.96

7.8
5.1
4.8
6.4
9.4
13.8
-2.2
14.7
21.5
14.0
28.5
36.8
14.8
4.6
3.3
0.9
1.0

4.0
3.8-4.3
3.7
3.2-4.2
3.9
3.4-4.4
2.7
2.2-3.2
7.4
6.9-7.9
11.3 10.8-11.8
-1.4 -1.9 -0.9
13.2 12.7-13.7
15.0 14.5-15.5
9.5
8.5-10.5
22.3 21.8-22.8
26.6 26.1-27.1
13.5 12.1-13.9
3.7
3.5-4.0
3.8
3.6-4.1
2.5
2.3-2.8
0.7
0.6-0.8

4.5
4.2
4.4
2.8
8.3
10.9
5.5
5.5
10.3
6.0
13.7
15.8
9.0
2.2
3.3
2.3
0.7

4.0-5.0
3.7-4.7
3.9-4.9
2.3-3.3
7.8-8.8
9.9-11.9
4.5-6.5
4.5-6.5
9.3-11.3
5.0-7.0
12.7-14.7
14.8-16.8
6.9-10.9
1.7-2.7
2.8-3.8
1.8-2.8
0.6-0.8

 2554 2555
( 2554)
(.) 2554 4.0
3.8-4.3 2553 7.8 2555
4.5 ( 4.0-5.0)
1 2 2554 3.2
2.6 (.) 22
2554

8 2554

27.6









8 2554 5.0

(1) 14

. 14 2554
2555 3.2 3.5 (2) 2554
2555 101.0 115.0

(3) 2554 2555
7.0 7.5 2554 2555 10.0 4.5
(4) 2554 2555 30.5 30.0

(5) 2554 3.5 ( 3.253.75)
2555 3.254.00 (6) 2554 (
2553 2554) 2.81 2555 2.92-2.95

11


2554 2555
1. 14
. 2554 14 3.2 2553
4.8

2555 . 14 3.5

1 14 ()

2553
14 (78.7%)
1. (11.0%)
2. (10.5%)
3. (10.3%)
4. (9.8%)
5. (6.7%)
6. (5.4%)
7. (5.4%)
8. (4.6%)
9. (3.8%)
10. (3.0%)
11. (2.5%)
12. (2.2%)
13. (1.8%)
14. (1.7%)

2552

2553

-0.2
9.2
-6.3
-2.4
-4.1
-2.7
-0.8
1.3
-1.7
4.5
5.3
1.1
7.0
0.2
-1.9

4.8
10.4
4.0
3.0
1.7
6.8
14.5
2.6
7.2
6.1
6.8
7.6
8.8
6.2
10.8

2553

2554

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

5.4
11.9
5.6
2.2
0.8
8.1
16.4
2.2
10.1
5.6
5.9
8.4
9.4
8.5
13.6

5.3
10.3
3.1
3.3
2.0
6.4
19.4
3.4
8.9
6.1
6.3
8.9
8.9
7.5
12.9

4.6
9.6
5.0
3.5
2.0
6.7
10.5
2.5
5.3
5.8
7.4
7.3
8.9
4.4
10.7

4.2
9.8
2.2
3.1
2.0
6.2
12.0
2.3
4.8
6.9
7.2
6.1
8.2
4.7
6.9

3.6
9.7
-1.0
2.2
2.5
7.5
9.3
1.0
4.7
6.5
5.4
4.6
7.8
4.2
6.2

2.7
9.5
-1.1
1.6
1.6
5.1
1.0
1.4
4.0
6.5
5.7
3.4
7.7
3.4
5.0

2554 f

2555 f

3.2
9.2
-0.6
1.7
1.7
5.5
5.0
2.8
5.0
6.3
5.0
4.8
8.5
3.9
6.1

3.5
8.8
2.5
2.0
1.5
4.7
4.7
3.5
5.5
6.4
6.6
5.2
8.1
4.0
4.3

: .

1.1 ( 1 : 11.0
2553)
2 2554 9.5
9.7
1 2
() 2 2554 22.0
26.4 2 2554 5.7
5.1

12

 1 ()

: CEIC .

2 3 2554 ( 2554)

2554
17.3 2 18.2
- 2554 13.8 2
13.9 ()
2 22.3
2554 6.4 2 5.7

2554 9.2 8.79.7

10.4

(NBS Manufacturing
Purchasing Manager Index) 9 2554 51.9 2553 53.8

2554
2555 8.8 8.39.3
9.2 2555
(1)
(2)

13

1.2 ( 2 : 10.5
2553)
2 2554
-1.1
-0.5
(%qoq_sa) 3
11 2554
2 4.6
4.7 2 2554 0.3
0.0
(Overnight Call) 0-0.1
2 ()

: CEIC .

2 3 2554 ( 2554)

2554 0.6
2 -1.7
2554 -0.5
2 -8.0

2554
-0.6 -1.10.1
4.0
(1)
2554 60 GDP 37.6
2 34.8 (2)
(Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index) 2554 51.1
2 49.2 (3)
25 (
4.6 GDP) 16 ( 3 GDP)

14

 2555 2.5 2.03.0

-0.6

2555 (1)
(Safe Haven)
(2)
1.3 ( 3 : 10.3
2553)
2 2554 1.5
0.3
(%qoq_sa) 2 2554
9.1 5.0
3.4 2.1
3 ()

: CEIC .

2 3 2554 ( 2554)

2 2554
7.7 2 7.8
2554 9.6 2
9.4
(Existing Home Sales) 2554
4.85 2 4.88
2554 1.7
1.32.0 3.0 2554

2554
70 GDP 51.9 2
61.8
(ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index) 3 51.0
2 56.4

15

 2555 2.0

1.52.5 1.7 2555

(1)
4.47 0.62
1.4 (2)
(Fed Fund Rate) 0.00.25
Federal Reserve 6 30 4 3
2555 (Operation Twist)
(Mortgage-back securities) 2555

1.4 17 ( 4 : 9.8
2553)
2 2554 1.6
0.2
(%qoq_sa) 2 10.0
2 2.7 2.5

4 ()

: CEIC .

3 2554 ( 2554)

() 2554
3.5 2 3.7
2554 5.3 2
12.7
2554 1.7
1.32.0 1.7
(1)
2554 49.1 50.3
2 54.9 55.5

(2) 2554 -13.9
2 -10.4

16

 2555 1.5

1.02.0 1.7 2555

(1)
PIIGS

2555 (2)
(3)
1.5 5 ( 19.3 2553)
5 (
) 2
2554

5 2 2554
2 2554 19.4

2 (%)

( 2553)
(5.4%)
(4.6%)
(3.8%)
(3.0%)
GDP
Q2/2554
0.9
4.0
6.5
5.7

(%yoy)

2.3
3.3
2.6
n/a

0.4
0.5
0.3
n/a

2.3
0.7
2.1
n/a

-1.5
1.3
2.1
n/a

-2.6
-5.1
-0.6
n/a

(2.5%)
3.4
3.6
0.5
-1.2
-2.2
2.7

: CEIC .

5 (% yoy)

: CEIC .

6 (% yoy)

: CEIC .

5 2 3 2554

( 5)

17

( 6)
2554 2554
2554 5 2553

2554

2554
2555 5
2554

2555
5
2555
1.6 ( 17.8
2553)
( )
2 2554

2 2554
2554

3 (%)

( 2553)
(6.2%)
(6.1%)
(2.1%)
GDP
Q2/2554
5.1
1.7
7.7

(%yoy)

5.9
1.7
4.4

0.1
0.6
0.2

1.7
1.4
2.6

-2.0
-0.8
-1.7

-0.7
-1.2
2.2

(1.8%)

(1.5%)

3.4

5.0

1.5
0.3
-0.3
1.4
0.5

1.7
0.0
0.3
2.8
0.2

: CEIC .

7 (% yoy)

: CEIC .

18

8 (% yoy)

: CEIC .

 2 3 2554

2
2
( 7)
2554
( 8)
2554 .



2554
2555 .

2554

2555

2.
2554 101.0 ( 96.0106.0 ) 2553 78.2
2553 2
OECD



OPEC
OPEC



2555 115.0 (
110.0-120.0 )
Non-OECD

19

 9 2554 2555

: Reuters

2554
101.0 (

96.0-106.0 ) 2553 78.2

9 2554 105.8 39.0

OECD

11 2554

3 2554


OPEC Non-OPEC
2555 115.0 (
110.0-120.0 )
Non-OECD

2554 1)
2 OECD



2)


2555

20

1) International Energy Agency (IEA) 2554

89.3 2553 88.2 1.1
1.3 2
2551 2552 OECD
OECD 2554 45.8
2553 46.2 0.4 0.9


3
OECD 2554 43.5
2553 42.1 1.4 3.3

2) 2554 88.3
2553 87.4 0.9 1.03
OPEC 2554 35.5 2553
34.8 0.7 2.0
OPEC


2-3 500,000-600,000
1.6
Non-OPEC 2554 52.8 2553
52.6 0.2 0.4

3. ()
2554 7.0 ( 6.0-8.0)


10 () 2554
()

()

: .

21

 10.0 ( 9.0-11.0)

2555
7.5
4.5
2554 2554
3.1
2554 7.0 ( 6.0-8.0)
2553 9.1 75.3

8 2554 4.3
8 2554 11.3 6.8
16.4 17.7

2 3
2 3 52.7 2 60.5
8 2554 66.9
47.8
2555 2555 7.5 ( 6.5-8.5 )


3.2
2554 10.0 ( 9.011.0) 2553 8.1 20.9
8 2554 33.3

43.5
8 7.3

2555 4.5 ( 3.5-5.5 )

2554
2554

4.
. 2554 2553
30.5 ( 29.531.5 )
2555 29.031.0

22

 11 2554 2555

: Reuters

4.1
2554
3.46 ( 12)
- 2554



(Safe Haven)
12

: Reuters / .

(Balance of Payment) 8
7.3

23

 13 2553-2554

4.2
2554 30.5
( 29.531.5 ) 2555
30.0 (
29.031.0 ) 2554 2555



2554 2555

5.
. 2554 3.50
( 3.253.75 ) 2555 3.254.00)
(.)

1.25
16 2553 . 9
3.50
2554

24

 14

: .

2554 .
3.50 (

3.25-3.75 )

2555 . 3.254.00

2554
15

: .

6. 2554
2554 ( (1) (2)
(.) (3) ) 2.823
2553 2.521 12.0

25

6.1
2554 2,070,000
420,000 3.9 GDP
1,650,000 (1)
1,662,604 (2) 30,346 (3) 344,495
(4) 32,555
99,968
84,143 . 15,825

4 2553 2554

2554

1,700,000.0
17.5
(12.9)

2,070,000.0
20.0
21.8

2,169,967.5
20.0
27.6

1.1
( GDP)
()
()

1,434,710.1
14.8
84.4
1.7

1,662,604.2
16.1
80.3
15.9

1,667,439.7
15.4
76.8
16.2

1.2
( GDP)
()
()

214,369.0
2.2
12.6
(50.1)

344,495.1
3.3
16.6
60.7

355,484.5
3.3
16.4
65.8

1.3
()
()

50,920.9
3.0
(20.0)

32,554.6
1.6
(36.1)

32,555.6
1.5
(36.1)

2.
( GDP)
()

1,350,000.0
13.9
(15.9)

1,650,000.0
15.9
22.2

1,770,000.0
16.3
31.1

3. /
( GDP)

(350,000.0)
(3.6)

(420,000.0)
(4.1)

(399,967.5)
(3.7)

4. (GDP)

9,726,200.0

10,358,400.0

10,840,500.0

1.
( GDP)
()

26

2554

2553

 2554
2,231,869 2554 93.0
2,070,000 1,757,928
259,758 72.0
1,984,484 86.0 (
) 2555 2,320,819
93.0 2,330,000
1,868,391 299,520
2555 349,960
2554 2555 56,037
16.0 349,960
( 2552 2554) 289,162
82.6 349,960 2555
52,244 14.9 349,960 (
45,34259,145 )
5 2554 2555
( : )

11
2553
. 2554
1. (1.1+1.2)

2554 2555

.. 2554
.. 2554

2,004,313

2,039,245

2,287,906

2,366,161-2,379,964

1,784,413

1,984,484

2,231,869

2,320,819

(1)

1,444,760

1,547,945

1,757,928

1,868,391

(2)

183,115

228,435

259,758

299,520

89,512

95,089

84,143

84,143

- .

5,369

10,947

1,627,875

1,865,892

2,112,775

2,167,911

156,538

118,592

119,094

152,908

95.8%

86.0%

93.0%

93.0%

()

1,700,000

2,169,968

2,169,968

2,330,000

1.2
2555

219,901

54,761

56,037

45,342-59,145

1.1 (1)+(2)+(3)

()

(1)+(2)
(3)

: (.)

27

6.2
(.) (SNA)
282,675 -1.4
2 2554
2555 1 2555
.
. 3 2554
191,675 . 2555 297,448
5.2
6 2554 2555
( : )

2553

286,557

2554
191,675

2554 2555

.. 2554
.. 2554
282,675
297,448

: (.)

6.3
2554 315,370
1) ( 1 255330 2554)
114,755 2) ( 1 2554 2554)
200.6
2554 75
(SNA) 259,491
3 2554 190,265
2555 265,138
7 2554

2553

315,370

2554
190,265

( : )

2554 2555

.. 2554
.. 2554
253,257
265,138

: (.)

6.4

2554 2554 2,823,838
12.0 1) 2,231,869
2555 56,037 2) 282,675
3) 253,257
2555 2,935,648
4.0 ( 2,922,7472,948,549 )

28

1) 2,320,819 2555 52,244

( 45,34259,145 ) 2) 297,448
3) 265,138 ( 259,138-271,138 )
8 2554 2555

1. (1.1+1.2)
1.1 (1)+(2)+(3)

( : )

11 2554 2555
2553
.

2554
.. 2554
.. 2554
2,366,161-2,379,964
2,004,313
2,039,245
2,287,906
1,784,413

1,984,484

2,231,869

2,320,819

(1)

1,444,760

1,547,945

1,757,928

1,868,391

(2)

183,115

228,435

259,758

299,520

89,512

95,089

84,143

84,143

- .

5,369

10,947

1,627,875

1,865,892

2,112,775

2,167,911

156,538

118,592

119,094

152,908

95.8%

86.0%

93.0%

93.0%

()

1,700,000

2,169,968

2,169,968

2,330,000

1.2
2555

219,901

54,761

56,037

45,342-59,145

2.

286,557

191,675

282,675

297,448

3.

230,377

190,265

253,257

259,138-271,138

4. (1+2+3)

2,521,248

2,421,185

2,823,838

2,922,747-2,948,549

()

(1)+(2)
(3)

: (.) (.) .

29

 2554 2555
1.
. 2554 4.0 3.84.3
2553 7.8
2554 4.5
. 2554 4.0

3.8-4.3



2554

(Double-Dip Recession)
26
2555 .
4.5
4.0-5.0
300

16

: (.)

30

1.1
1.1.1
2 2554 2.8
1 2554 3.3



(
2 2554 0.2 )
1) 0.6 2 2554 2)
17.7

2 2554 3.5
23.6
5.7 4.5
3.4 2.0
4.1 3.0
17

: .

2554 3.9 (

3.4-4.4) 2553 4.8

2554
8 2554

31


13.5 (
) 24.8 14.7


21.5 0.7
11.4 8 2554
2554 1)
2)

3)

2555 4.4 (
3.9-4.9) 2554 3.9 1)
2555
4.5

2)
300
2555
1.1.2
2 2554 1.0
1.8
-0.7 2554 1.4
0.1 2.1
337.7 7.0 234.0
18

: .

32

 8.9 103.7 2.8

2554 2.07 1.0
2.17 2 521.6
38.0 17.2 -36.6
2555 12.5 2 551.2
2554 2.7
( 2.2-3.2 ) 2553
6.4
2555 4 2554 2554
1.667 (
84.1 ) 2553 1.434
232.7 16.2 11
2554 1,634.9
90.4 () 2555

2555
2.8
( 2.3-3.3 )
2555 2.330.0
1.839.7 79.0
10.3
1.2
1.2.1
2 2554 8.6
12.6
2 2554 1.9
( 75.0 ) 9.5 1
19

: .

33

 2554 14.7 14.5

29.3

2 2554 20.3 27.8
-12.1 21.6
0.6 6.6 (
25.0 ) 2 2554 5.5
5.8

2553 2.8
3.2 4.8 11.7
2554
11.3 (
10.8-11.8) 2553 13.8 1)
2554 10.5 2)
3)

2554 8 2554
(
) 13.2
16.1

13.9 2.9
2554 2554
1)
2)
3)
4) 2554


2555
10.9 (
9.9-11.9) 2553 13.8 1)



2555 3)
2554 30
26 2555 20 2556
2555
1.2.2

2 2554 -9.9
-1.4 -8.1
2554 -5.9 -5.1

34

 -35.2
1) -19.9 -8.8
-28.3
2.0
2) 19.0
13.9 48.1
1 2554 22.1 2 2554
() 3 12,018
-5.0
20

: .

2554 -1.4 ( -1.9

-0.9 ) 2554 -2.2

2555 4 2554
2554 355.5
( . 15.8 )
2553 214.4 65.8
72.0
2555 2554 56.0
11 2554 231.0
64.0 ( )
2555 54.8
( 2552 2554) 289.2 82.6
350.0
2555 5.5
( 4.5-6.5 ) 2554


2555 223.2

35

 24.1 2555 354.4

16.5 2555
2555 45.359.2
1.3

2 2554 11.8

16.0
S&P AAA AA+

70
-1.0
9.2
-12.1
1 2554
33.8 21.2 18.4




28.5 6.4

21

: .

2554 13.2 (

12.7-13.7)



2554

36

 2555 5.5 (

4.5-6.5)
2555
2555
1.4

2 2554 14.9

1 2554 16.8
2.4
-3.1 22.9

0.8
13.7 14.5
11.9 26.5
-3.5
1 2554 6.1
22

: .

2554 15.0 (

14.5-15.5)

37

 2555 10.3 (

9.3-11.3) 2554
2555

2.
2.1
8 2554 155.4

25.5 2 2554
19.2 8 2554
26.4
2 2554



34.7 15.4 24.5 30.7
-5 25.0
-7.2 -5.5
23

: .

2554 .

22.3 ( 21.8-22.8) 2553 28.5

13.9


2554

38

 2555 . 13.7 (

12.7-14.7) 2554 2553

2555

2.2
8 2554 134.9

28.1 2 2554 28.0

23.5 24.4 26.9 27.4
47.8
8 2554 25.3

24

: .

2554 . 26.6 (

26.1-27.1) 2553 36.8

2555 . 15.8 (
14.8-16.8) 2554

2555

39

2.3
8 2554 20.5
8

2553 18.5
155.4 134.9

25

: .

2554 9.5 ( 8.5-10.5

) 2553


2555 6.0 ( 5.0-7.0
)
2555

3.
3.1
8 2554 10.0

8 2553 5.7
20.5
-10.5

40

 26

: .

2554 13.5 (

12.1-13.9 3.5-4.0 GDP) 2553

2555 9.0 (
6.9-10.9 1.8-2.8 GDP) 2554

3.2
9 2554 3.8

9 2553 3.4 1)
2)
3)
9 2554
2.9

41

 27

: .

2554
3.8 (

3.6-4.1) 1)
2) 3)


2553 2.5 ( 2.32.8
)
2555 3.3 (
2.8-3.8) 2554

300
2.3 ( 1.8-2.8)

42

11 2554

2554 (Expansionary Fiscal Policy)

2,070.0
1,650.0 -420.0
2555 2553 350.0
99.9
84.1 (.) 15.8
2,170.0
120.0 1,770.0
-400.0
11 2554
( (.)) 1,788.7
288.5 14.6 178.1 11.1
(1)
(2)
(3) (4)
11 2554
1,984.5 392.8
24.7 (1)
1,865.9 29.1
86.0 2554 (2,170.0 ) (2) 118.6
-18.9
2555 289.2 82.6 350.0
( 2554)
11 2554
-365.7 59.0
() -306.8 2554
289.2

2554 4,269.0
40.22 GDP 2554 -11.0
-6.2 20.0
(1) (2) (3)
(4)

43

 2554 (Expansionary Fiscal Policy)

2555 2552 2553 350.0
(Extra Budgetary Expenditure) 2554

1. 11 2554
( 2553- 2554)
11 2554
( .) 1,788.7 228.5
14.6 178.1 11.1
3 ( ) 1,885.1
225.0 13.6 238.4
14.5

1,423.1 199.8
16.3 239.1 20.2
(1) 554.6
139.0 33.5 117.6 26.9
(2) 528.0 37.7
7.7 68.2 14.8
(3) 217.6
17.5 8.7 24.9
12.9
368.3 12.2
3.4 -5.3 -1.4
0.005
21 2554 (1) 113.2
26.2 18.8 27.6
19.6 (2) 83.2 22.4
36.9 12.9 18.3

93.6 13.0
16.1 4.5 5.1
90.8 12.4 15.8
5.1 6.0

44

 1 11 2554

1.
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.
-
-
-
3
4.
5.

( .)

( : )

. 1,650,000

(.. 53-.. 54) (.. 52-.. 53)

()
()

1,423,097
217,600
554,569
81,425
528,015
32,093
9,394
368,342
113,163
51,569
44,569
55,956
83,200
19,885
93,613
90,828
212
2,573
1,885,052
88,304
100,847
2,074,407

1,183,977
192,724
436,986
66,135
459,801
20,148
8,183
373,602
140,818
49,149
38,852
54,736
70,306
19,734
89,110
85,679
149
3,282
1,646,690
82,209
138,810
1,867,709

1,223,266
200,128
415,527
88,353
490,337
21,002
7,919
356,173
139,411
47,411
38,049
53,075
60,767
17,460
80,610
78,410
90
2,110
1,660,049
76,787
88,030
1,824,866

20.2
12.9
26.9
23.1
14.8
59.3
14.8
-1.4
-19.6
4.9
14.7
2.2
18.3
0.8
5.1
6.0
42.4
-21.6
14.5
7.4
-27.3
11.1

199,830
17,472
139,043
-6,928
37,678
11,091
1,475
12,169
-26,248
4,157
6,520
2,881
22,433
2,425
13,003
12,418
122
463
225,003
11,518
12,817
249,541

16.3
8.7
33.0
-7.8
7.7
52.8
18.6
3.4
-18.8
8.8
17.1
5.4
36.9
13.9
16.1
15.8
135.8
22.0
13.6
15.0
14.6
13.7

1,788,674

1,610,601

1,560,204

11.1

228,470

14.6

88.3 11.5
15.0 6.1 7.5
2553
. ()

100.8 12.8
14.6 -37.9 -27.3

1.95
2.11

45

2. 11 2554
( 2553- 2554)
11 2554
1,984.5 392.8 24.7
(1)
1,865.9 29.1 86.0
2554 (2,170.0 ) 1.1)
1,634.9 27.4
90.1 ( 1,813.7 ) 1.2)
231.0 42.7
64.8 (356.3 ) (2) 118.6
-18.9
11 2553
86.0 11 83.4
2554
93.0 2554

2 11 2554

1. .
-
-
2.
(1+2)

( : )

11 11

()

2554
2554
2553
(1)
(2)
(3)
(2) / (3)
(2) / (1)
2,169,968
1,813,687
356,280
183,221
2,353,189

1,865,892
1,634,913
230,979
118,592
1,984,484

1,445,468
1,283,655
161,813
146,241
1,591,709

29.1
27.4
42.7
-18.9
24.7

86.0
90.4
64.0
64.7
84.3

2554
2555 2555
2554 289,162
82.6 349,960 3
(1) 40,000
100.0 (40,000 ) (2) 179
96.9 (185 ) (3) 664
96.3 (689 )

46

 3 2555 2554
/
1
1.1
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
3
3.1
4
4.1
5
5.1
6
6.1
7
7.1
8
8.1

59,503.3
59,503.3
74,781.1
46,586.5
174.3
0
3,281.7
14,691.5
9,172.9
185.0
689.2
5,394.3
5,394.3
1,331.6
1,331.6
51,981.4
51,981.4
1,927.7
1,927.7
106,542.1
106,542.1
40,000.0
40,000.0
341,460.4
8,500.0
349,960.4

( : )

50,323.3
84.6
50,323.3
84.6
59,217.1
79.2
43,673.0
93.7
0
0
0
0
1,368.5
41.7
6,275.4
42.7
7,057.3
76.9
179.3
96.9
663.6
96.3
2,512.4
46.6
2,512.4
46.6
1,274.1
95.8
1,274.1
95.8
37,651.3
72.4
37,651.3
72.4
860.1
44.6
860.1
44.6
93,559.1
87.8
93,559.1
87.8
40,000
100.0
40,000
100.0
285,397.2
83.6
3,764.9
44.3
289,162.1
82.6

3. 11 2554
( 2553- 2554)
11 2554
-365.7 59.0
114.5
2555 52.5 107.0
() -306.8
11 147.5
-159.3 2554 270.1
11 2554

47

 4 11 2554
11
2554 2553
1.
1,618,739
1,467,436
2.
1,984,484
1,591,709
3.
-365,745
-124,273
4.
58,956
-8,292
5. (3+4)
-306,789
-132,565
6.
147,517
232,575
7. (5+6)
-159,272
100,010

270,050
393,845

( : )

151,303
392,775
-241,472
67,248
-174,224
-85,058
-259,282

10.3
24.7
194.3
-810.9
131.4
-36.6
-259.3

4.
2554 4,269.0 40.22
GDP -11.0 -6.2
20.0
(1) 3,010.3 28.4 GDP -6.2
(2) 1,072.1 10.1 GDP -2.8
(3) () 155.6 1.5 GDP
-2.5 (4) 31.0 0.3
GDP 430.6
2554
(1) 92.0 (2)
98.6 (3) GDP
40.22 60.0 GDP
1 GDP

48

 5 31 2554

.. 54
.. 54
1.
2,891,655 3,000,474
2. 1,072,376 1,074,288
(2.1+2.2)
2.1
532,436 517,128
2.2
539,940 557,161
3.
175,200 158,306
()
4. (4.1+4.2)
62,092 30,526
4.1
30,445 30,445
4.2
31,647
80
5. (5.1+5.2)
5.1
5.2
(1+2+3+4+5)
4,201,324 4,263,593
GDP () 41.59
40.66

( : )

.. 54 %
.. 54
3,016,485 3,010,318 71.7%
1,074,909 1,072,101 25.5%

../..
/
(6,167)
(2,808)

523,648
551,261
158,107

.. 54

523,770
548,331
155,624

12.5%
13.1%
3.7%

122
(2,929)
(2,482)

30,553
30,984
30,445
30,445
108
538
4,280,053 4,269,027
40.57
40.22

0.7%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0
-

430.6
0
430.6
0
0
0
(11,027)
-

: GDP 2554 10,613.43 ( (GDP 53/12*4)+(GDP 54/12*8))

GDP 2554 10,549.85 ( (GDP 53/12*5)+(GDP 54/12*7))
:

5. 2554
2554 48
304.9 2554 134.1
44.0
5.1 17 97.3
48 296.7
11 (1 2553-31 2554) 130.4
44.0
(1) (10 ) 1 2553
96.7 11 (1 2553-31 2554) 43.1
44.5
(2) (7 ) 1 2554
199.9 8 (1 2553-31 2554) 87.4
43.7

49

 6 2554 2554

48
17
2554 (10 )

()

2554 (7 )
()
()
()

. ()

(1)

2554
304,928.08
296,657.23
96,700.87
2,338.00
3,408.49
3,596.65
2,617.00
4,966.37
35,811.81
24,131.00
4,056.00
8,815.00
6,960.55
199,956.37
21,222.00
10,100.00
22,913.78
38,281.00
8,186.82
17,977.00
81,275.77

(2)

.. 2554
134,107.13
130,409.13
43,051.81
419.28
1,148.50
1,892.96
1,538.88
2,909.39
6,209.48
14,717.00
3,249.98
5,066.97
5,899.37
87,357.32
7,519.70
4,126.28
8,569.62
9,863.20
3,295.00
7,771.39
46,212.13

( : )

(3) = (2)/(1)
%

43.98%
43.96%
44.52%
17.93%
33.70%
52.63%
58.80%
58.58%
17.34%
60.99%
80.13%
57.48%
84.75%
43.69%
35.43%
40.85%
37.40%
25.77%
40.25%
43.23%
56.86%

:
: GFMIS-SOE 15 2554

5.2 2554 ( 2554)

2554 24.1
14.7 60.9
-
- 7.0 5.8
84.6 4-5
35.8 6.2
17.3
- . () 81.3
46.2 56.9

50

Macroeconomic Analysis Briefing

CPI PPI

(CPI) (PPI)
(CPI) (PPI)

2549
2549

1.






(CPI) (PPI)
(Causal Relationship)
2543 2554

2. (Consumer Price Index: CPI) ?

2505 (Retail price index)
1

51

 (Cost of living index)

(Composite index)
2

4 417
8 1
1

2 (CPI)
(Core CPI)

3



4
1-5 3,000-60,000
4
1-5 3,000-15,000

4
2-6 2,000-25,000

3. (Producer Price Index: PPI) ?

2 (1) (Classification of Products by
Activity: CPA) (2)
(Stage of Processing: SOP) ()
(Composite index)

2

52

(Household Socio-Economic Survey)

(I-O table)
5
2548 609
2

2
82.3 15.6 2.1

15.8 12.6
3 12.1

4. (CPI) (PPI)





(Time lag)

(Derived demand)

53



(Menu cost)



3

: CEIC Data

3 25392554
PPI CPI
2540-2542 CPI PPI
2540
2543-2548 CPI 2549
3
2554 4.3

5.
Granger Causality Test
Error Correction Model (ECM) Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
2543
2554 2548

54

2548
2549

6.
All-Period Analysis
All-Period Analysis 2543 2554
log(CPI) log(PPI) non-stationary
(cointegrate)
Granger Causality
2
2 Granger Causality All-Period Analysis
: 2543- 25544
Null Hypothesis

Optimal
Lag Length

Chi-square

p-value

(log(PPI)) does not Granger Cause (log(CPI))

(log(CPI)) does not Granger Cause (log(PPI))

5.215973
7.315095

0.0737*
0.0258**

*,**,*** 10 5 1
:

(Granger cause) 10
(Granger cause) 5
Subsample analysis
Subsample Analysis 2
2543 2549 2549 2554
2549

2549 (Structural
Break test) Quandt-Andrews unknown breakpoint test 2549
Granger Causality

(log(CPI)) = -0.06ECM + 0.006(log(CPI(-1))) + 0.007(log(CPI(-2))) + 0.12(log(PPI(-1))) 0.023(log(PPI(-2))) + 0.0018
[-0.79]
[0.06]
[0.06]
[2.21]**
[-0.45]
[2.86]***
Adjusted R-squared = 0.04 S.E. of equation = 0.007
(log(PPI)) = 0.37ECM + 0.353(log(CPI(-1))) + 0.555(log(CPI(-2))) + 0.248(log(PPI(-1))) 0.113(log(PPI(-2))) + 0.0015
[2.64]*** [1.54]
[2.5]**
[2.32]**
[-1.07]
[1.22]
Adjusted R-squared = 0.213 S.E. of equation = 0.01
ECM = log(CPI(-1)) 2.148 0.535log(PPI(-1))
[-49.09]***
t-stat in [ ] *,**,*** 10 5 1

55

 3 Granger Causality Subsample analysis5

: 2543- 25496
Null Hypothesis

Optimal
Lag Length

Chi-square

p-value

(log(PPI)) does not Granger Cause (log(CPI))

(log(CPI)) does not Granger Cause (log(PPI))

4.713169
21.33587

0.3180
0.0003***

Null Hypothesis

Optimal
Lag Length

Chi-square

p-value

(log(PPI)) does not Granger Cause (log(CPI))

(log(CPI)) does not Granger Cause (log(PPI))

4.102596
1.253763

0.0428**
0.2628

: 2549- 25547

*,**,*** 10 5 1
:

56

CPI PPI (Cointegrate) ECM

(Cointegrate) VAR first difference CPI PPI I(1)

(log(CPI)) = -0.273ECM + 0.096(log(CPI(-1))) 0.014(log(CPI(-2)))+0.061(log(CPI(-3)) 0.047(log(CPI(-4))
[-3.27]**
[0.71]
[-0.09]
[0.41]
[-0.34]
- 0.046(log(PPI(-1))) 0.205(log(PPI(-2))) 0.054(log(PPI(-3)) 0.046(log(PPI(-4)) + 0.0035
[-0.48]
[-2.11]**
[-0.6]
[-0.54]
[3.72]***
Adjusted R-squared = 0.095 S.E. of equation = 0.005
(log(PPI)) = -0.12ECM + 0.664(log(CPI(-1))) + 0.458(log(CPI(-2))) 0.05(log(CPI(-3)) 0.54 (log(CPI(-4))
[-0.92]
[3.11]**
[2.01]**
[-0.22]
[-2.43]**
0.203(log(PPI(-1))) 0.306(log(PPI(-2)))+ 0.17 (log(PPI(-3)) 0.07(log(PPI(-4)) + 0.0048
[-1.35]
[-1.99]**
[1.2]
[-0.52]
[3.22]**
Adjusted R-squared = 0.225 S.E. of equation =0.008
ECM = log(CPI(-1)) 2.093 0.548 log(PPI(-1))
[-20.03]***

(log(CPI)) = -0.005(log(CPI(-1))) + 0.14(log(PPI(-1))) + 0.0018
[-0.03]
[2.03]**
[1.76]*
Adjusted R-squared = 0.091 S.E. of equation = 0.007
(log(PPI)) = 0.473(log(CPI(-1))) + 0.299(log(PPI(-1))) + 0.0014
[1.12]
[1.79]*
[0.57]
Adjusted R-squared = 0.172 S.E. of equation = 0.02
t-stat in [ ] *,**,*** 10 5 1

 (Causal relationship)
2543 2549
1

2549
2554
5

VAR 2549 2554

(Optimal lag length) 1 lag
2549 (
4)

: CEIC Data

7.
(PPI) (CPI)

2543

57



( )

2543 2549
2549

8.

58

2540 ( 2536-2540) 9.5 GDP
GDP
5.7 2551-2553
GDP 5.4
2540

Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
2540

1
GDP 0.166
GDP
1 Potential GDP 0.648
Potential GDP 4.5-5.1
2540 11.6
GDP Potential GDP 2.0



(Human Capital)

1.
2540 25422549
(Gross Domestic Product: GDP) 4.7
( 25342539) 8.4

(Potential output Potential GDP)2

: .

2
(Full
employment) (Inflationary pressure)
1

59

2.
2540
( 2536-2540) 3 9.5 GDP
7.6 GDP 2541-2545 GDP
5.7 2551-2553 GDP 5.4
(Current Expenditure) (Capital Expenditure)4

(Discretionary Spending)



7080

1 14

:
(System of National Accounts--SNA) (government consumption
expenditures)
(Transfer payments)

4
1
1
3

60

 1 10 6080
20

GDP (Capital stock of public

sector)
(Quantity of capital) (Kt)

(Capital depreciation)5

1 (Gross Capital Stock) 25482552

70
29
2548 3.2 2552
2.8 2551
2552 (Classified by Economic Activities)
22.7 19.2
16.2 10.7 7.3
2552 23.0
18.8 16.5 10.3
7.9
1 2531

()

()

2548

2549

2550

2551

2552

13,975
4,112
9,863
100
29.4
70.6
3.2
3.8
3.0

14,431
4,275
10,156
100
29.6
70.4
3.3
3.9
3.0

14,895
4,461
10,435
100
29.9
70.1
3.2
4.4
2.7

15,380
4,642
10,738
100
30.2
69.8
3.3
4.1
2.9

15,813
4,796
11,017
100
30.3
69.7
2.8
3.3
2.6

: (.)

Physical Law of Motion (Net capital stock)

(Gross investment) (Depreciation)

61

 (.)
2539 11.2

2540 18.0 2539
3.6 2540 2541
25422545

2 () (Contribution to GDP growth)

: .

2 2540

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) 2540

Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

45 27
28 6.3
2547 4.6 2548 4.3 2547 1.7 2548


0.3 2547 0.5 2548 1.8 2547 2.5
2548 2552 -2.3 -4.8
0.3
2.2 -0.1

62

3.

(Neoclassical model)6 Aschauer (1989)7

(Production function) (Productivity)
(Kg) (Kp) (L)
Cobb-Douglas
(1)
yt = Yt / Ltkpt = Kpt / Ltkgt = Kgt/ L ()
()
(Panel data)
2533-2552 (fixed effect model)
(Unobservable Explanatory Variables)
(Cross-sectional Invariant) Fixed Effects Term
Fixed Effects
Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
Ln(Q/L) = 0.154 - 0.438*Ln(Kg/L) + 1.165* Ln(Kp/L) - 0.217*DUMMY
(2.109)* (-1.699)
(3.816)***
(-3.359)***
R-squared = 0.934
Fixed Effect Model (FE)
Ln(Q/L) = -0.0793 + 0.166*Ln(Kg/L) + 0.648* Ln(Kp/L)
(-2.736)*** (1.722)*
(3.742)***
R-squared = 0.812 Hausman test = 7.44 (0.0064)

(2)

(3)

(2) (3) (Fixed

effect) (OLS) Hausman test8
H0 (Null Hypothesis) Fixed effect OLS (Consistent)
(Efficient)9 H1 (Alternative Hypothesis) Fixed effect
(Non-Consistent) OLS
Hausman Statistic 7.44 0.00
Fixed effect OLS

Aschauer (1989) Barro (1990)

Endogenous growth
Bailey
(1990) Karras (1994) Tanzi and Schuknecht (1995)

7
IMF (2006) (New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD
Countries, IMF Staff Papers Vol. 53 N0. 1 by CHRISTOPHE KAMPS)
8
Hausman statistic
2SLS OLS
9
(smaller asymptotic variance)
6

63

 (2) Ln(Kg/L) 0.166

(Capital Productivity of public sector) 0.166 1
GDP 0.166
(3) GDP
1 Potential GDP 0.648
Suwanrada (1999)10 Production function 2513-2539
1 GDP
0.2-0.3 IMF (2006)11 OECD
1 GDP
OECD 0.22
2 Potential output growth Production function

(Capital Stock)
(TFP)
Potential GDP (Model)
Potential GDP (HP filter)

2554-2559E
0.1
1.5
3.8
5.1

2560-2563E
-0.4
2.0
3.8
4.9
4.5

2564-2568E
-0.9
3.0
3.8
4.9

(2) (Potential GDP) (Baseline

Scenario)
Fixed effect GDP Hodrick-Prescott Filte12
3 1 2554-2559 2 2560-2563
3 2564-2568 2

(Capital Stock)
(TFP)
(Potential GDP) 4.5-5.1
HP filter Potential GDP 4.5 Fixed effect
Potential GDP 5.1 4.9 2554-2559 2560-2568

Suwanrada, W. (1999). The Role of Public Capital in Thai Economy. Chulalongkorn Jourbal of Economics 11, 3: 273-320.
IMF Staff Papers (2006). New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 19602001.
12
HP filter
(Time series) 2 (Cycle)
(Trend) HP filter (Y*) (Y)
Minimization Hodrick,R.,
and E. Prescott, 1997, Postwar US. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 29, pp. 1-16.
10
11

64

 3
POTENTIAL GDP ()
2554E
2554-2559E
2560-2563E
2564-2568E
2568E

4.5
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9

GDP Potential GDP

5.7
0.7
6.6
2.0
8.2
1.9
10.5
1.9
11.6
1.9

(mega projects)

2540 11.6 GDP 2568 5.1 GDP 2553 3
(Simulation) 11.6 GDP 2568
(Potential GDP)
1.9

4.
Potential GDP 4.5-5.1
2540 11.6 GDP
Potential GDP 2.0

(Human Capital)

65

2554

2554
5 23



7
1.1


4.3

3.9

1.9 2554 .
-1.81 2.71 4.5

4
77,171.6
2,489.4 21.0
10,827 446,777
1 2554
0.7 0.9
2554 3.9

66

1.
2554
5 23

2554
(La Nia)
1 Oceanic Nino (ONI)

: National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration (NOAA)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

2554 Oceanic Nino
0 ( 1)
2

2554
5
1) (Haima)
24 2554
26 2554

159,598
2) (Nok-Ten)

20
20 314,732 619,723
3) (Haitang) 27 2554

28 2554

67

4) (Nesat)
30 2554

5) (Nalgae) 2554


5 2554
4 2554 1,856 23 3
2539 2542 2543
2551 2554

2554
( 4)
2
100 (Spillway) 3-13
2554 18-20 2554 3

:
* 1 4

68

2.

1.9
2554 -1.81 2.71
2554 3.9
5

: .

69



(Marginal Propensity to consump: MPC)
(Private Consumption)

(Private Investment)





GDP GDP

10,986,252 194,012
/ 13,282,622 ()
(.) 6
2554/2555 19 25
21-22
8-9 2554/2555 27 31
( 5

) ( 2
)
(Supply Chain)



GDP 3.6
982.9 / 10.0 GDP ( :
1 2554)


30 15
4


2554 100,000 19.45 22.1
25,000-27,000
580 2,525 20 19,000
900 8,000 ( 1
)

70

()

-
-
-

-
-
-

-
-
- .

-
- .

-
- .

-
- .

-
- .

-
- .

-
- .

10,986,252
8,789,002
2,197,250
194,012
13,282,622
10,626,098
664,131
1,992,393

120
120
15

60
15
60
15
30
15
30
30
15
30
15
393
30
15

/ (.) (100%) (75%) (50%)

3,375

29,663

22,247

14,831

5,700
20,000

12,524
3,880

9,393
2,910

6,262
1,940

10
3,000
2,000

106.26
1,992
3,985
52,151

80
1,494
2,989
39,113

53
996
1,992
26,075

1,781.0
982.9
140.6
657.5

144,682
117,953
16,866
9,863

108,512
88,465
12,650
7,397

72,341
58,976
8,433
4,931

198.7
99.3
99.4
1,030.0
275.2
754.8
400.7
15.8
384.8

7,450
5,960
1,490
27,836
16,514
11,322
6,247
475
5,773
7,891
1,711
6,180
4,880
571
4,309
3,186
2,525
661
57,491
254,324

5,588
4,470
1,118
20,877
12,386
8,491
4,686
356
4,330
5,919
1,284
4,635
3,660
428
3,232
2,390
1,894
496
43,118
190,743

3,725
2,980
745
13,918
8,257
5,661
3,124
237
2,886
3,946
856
3,090
2,440
285
2,155
1,593
1,263
331
28,746
127,162

57.0
412.0
19.0
287.3
84.2
44.1

: .

71

 4.5
2554 190,743
127,162-254,324 -1.81 -1.21 -2.42
2554 -2.42 4.53
2.11
2554 -1.81 4.53
2.71
2554 -1.21 4.53
3.32

6 2554

: .

:
75
50

. GDP -1.81 .

2554 2.71 ( 4.5 2554)

72

H1/54

42,062.0

81,844.0

496,723.5
-

105,283.3
-

26,609.2
-

1 2

()
() () ()
7,677.0
13,640.7
116.7

247.6
440.0
3.8

15,354.0
27,281.3
233.3

495.3
880.0
7.5

21,434.3
82,787.2
24,836.2

691.4
2,670.6
801.2

42,868.7
165,574.5
49,672.3

1,382.9
5,341.1
1,602.3

18,321.0
3,664.2
4,761.6
952.3
77,171.6

591.0
118.2
153.6
30.7
2,489.4

36,642.0
7,328.4
9,523.2
1,904.6
154,343.2

1,182.0
236.4
307.2
61.4
4,978.8

: .

4 77,171.6

2,489.4 2554
234,411 21.0

GDP 51.4

32.0 9.3






GDP


- 2554 4.2 4.1
2554 3.9 2554 3.8
(.) 17
10,827 446,777
373,590 1
0.7 0.9

73

3.

325,000
3
65,000
5


170,000 120,000
(.) 0.01
2 2
3.0 3
1
9
2 (.)
3


5,000 30 621,355 3,106,775,000
20,000 30,000
4 147
1. 15.84 2.
25
3.
22 4. 50

1.
301,950 12 63
24
2.

3.
4.
5.

6.

74

2554
1

(Yield curve)

2554
1)
2554
(Realized interest rate) Forward interest rate 0.16

2)
(Substitute
investment)
3)

4)
2554

:
. . .

75

1.



2554
- 265,458 45.4

(Yield curve) (Flat yield curve)
2
1 ( 1)

2554

2.

4 (1) (2) (3)
(4)

76

2.1
(Expectations Hypothesis)
(Implied forward
interest rate)2 2554
(Realized interest rate) 2
3 1 1
2
0.16 (0.000.40)

2 3

2.2
(Substitute investment)


3 6 1 ( 3)
3
6 1 100

3 6 1 83 93 93

(Arbitrage)

t+1

t1

t1

77

3 3 (1)


3.56 2554
(2)
(Default risk)
(Event
risk)
(Liquidity risk)
(3)
3

2.3

3 2
3
2 (SET Index) 17.80 34.01


4 2554

78

 4 3 2 (SET Index)

: Reuters

2.4 2554
(Double-dip recession)



( 5)

5 ( .) 10

79

3.

(Substitute investment)

2554

80

2552
(Miracle of Asia)
(High Income Country)

(High Income Country)
18-47 2554

1.
20
(Import Substitution)
(Export-oriented Country) 2528-2539

2538 14.5
(Miracle of Asia)
5 (Newly
Industrializing Countries: NICs) 4
(High Income Country)
2540
2544
2550-2553

81

 2550-2553


Miracle of Asia

2.
(Gross National Income Per Capita: GNI Per
Capita) (International Monetary
Fund: IMF) (Central Intelligence Agency: CIA) (World Bank: WB)
(United Nations: UN)


2530 World Bank Atlas Method


(Atlas Conversion Factor: etAtlas)

et

(Domestic Inflation) t-1 t

t-1 t (International Inflation)

2553 186
4 2553 1 1
1

1) (Low Income Country)

1,005

2) (Lower Middle Income Country)

1,006 - 3,975

3) (Upper Middle Income Country)

3,976 - 12,275

4) (High Income Country)

: World Bank

82

()

12,276

 1 2553

: World Bank

2533 81 155 1,490
(Lower Middle Income Country) 2533
996-3,945 2553 (Upper Middle
Income Country) 2553 98 186 4,210
6.2
20 2533 2 3 4
2
2533-2553

: World Bank .

83

 3 2533

: World Bank .

4 2553

: World Bank .

( )
2553 (7,900 )
(4,210 ) (2,580 ) (1,100 )
5
10 ( 2543-2553)
14.7


14.7 8.2
7.4 6
10

84



(High Income Country)
5
2543-2553

: World Bank .

6 2543-2553

: World Bank .

3.

1)
5.0 2) () 7.4
10 ( 2543-2553) 3) 9.0
(High Income Country)
Deterministic Trend Model

85

 7 2554

: World Bank .

7
2.6 2543-2553
5.0 47
(High Income Country) 2 ()
7.4 10 24
3 9.0
18 2554 (High Income Country) 2571

4.
8

2552

2552

: .

86

 2552
60
7,093 GDP




(Pro-Poor growth)

4.1
(Increase Farm Productivity)

/

Micro Finance

4.2

SMEs

87

4.3

(Social Safety Net)

(Research and Development: R&D) GDP

R&D

Public Private Partnerships (PPP)

(Creative Economy)

(
)

5.
2552 (Miracle of Asia)

(High Income Country)

(High Income Country) 18-47 2554

88

25.0
-

2554
1)

2) -

3)
2

Dow Jones

2518
2

2
25.0 ( 1) -
3
( ) 2554

: .
.
2
4

3
(Correlation coefficient) - (SET Index)
2554 0.549
1

89

: CEIC .

1 :

- 2554
1,785.8
1,904.0 ( 2) 1

-

2 -

: .

- 2554
2.71 3.1 ( 3)
-

90

 4 -

3 -

: .

-
2554 14,677

2 : -

-
25.0 -
2554 54.9 (Market mover)
-
-
-
2554
-
-- 2554
-0.884 88.4 --
-
- -0.4499

91

 4 Scattergram -

: .

-5 ( 1)
1 -

0.2328***
-0.0456
0.0264
-0.1691
0.0846
0.3208***

0.0808
-0.8844***
0.0584
-0.4499***
-0.0952
-0.8788***
-0.1983
-0.8760***
0.1227
-0.7653***
-0.0502
-0.8550***

*** 99
: .

-



-
-
-
Zero-sum -
2

5

92

-
- 23.28
- 32.08
-

 3 :

2554
-
- ()
2554 0.1943

5 -

: ThaiBMA .

-
2 1) 2)
-
0.2944

-
-0.0956

-
2554
0.2880

-0.1321
2

93

 2 -
2554

0.1943***

0.2944***

-0.0956

0.2880***

-0.1321

*** 99
: .

2554
(Asset Class)

4 :

2554 0.2961 0.8188 0.7958

94

: CEIC .

2554

Hang Seng Kospi
Strait Times 2554 0.2858 0.7371 0.2877

: CEIC .

95


(Advanced Economies)
Nikkei 6
Dow Jones FTSE
0.5971 0.1486
Nikkei -0.5438
2554

2554
0.2975

: CEIC .

96

( 2547-2550) Nikkei 0.5819

Dow Jones Nikkei 0.8091
2554
Nikkei
Dow Jones

 3
SET
SET
FTSE Bursa Malaysia
PSEi
JSEi
Hang Seng
Korea Composit
Strait Times
FTSE 100
Dow Jones
Nikkei 225

FTSE
Bursa PSEi
Malaysia

JSXi

Hang Korea Strait

Seng Composit Times

0.2961*** 0.8188*** 0.7958*** 0.2858*** 0.7317*** 0.2877***

0.2961***
0.6221*** 0.4791*** 0.1912** 0.4830*** 0.5023***
0.8188*** 0.6221***
0.9214*** 0.2982*** 0.7748*** 0.3798***
0.7958*** 0.4791*** 0.9214***
0.0772 0.6157*** 0.119
0.2858*** 0.1912** 0.2982*** 0.0772
0.6392*** 0.4959***
0.7317*** 0.4830*** 0.7748*** 0.6157*** 0.6392***
0.6526***
0.2877*** 0.5023*** 0.3798*** 0.1119 0.4959*** 0.6526***
0.1486** -0.0249*** -0.0375 -0.1616** 0.7022*** 0.3512*** 0.6052***
0.5971*** -0.1386* 0.4093*** 0.4896*** 0.2127*** 0.4941*** 0.0022
-0.5438*** -0.1048 -0.5215*** -0.6319*** 0.2296*** -0.2482*** 0.3426***

FTSE
100

Dow
Jones

Nikkei
225

0.1486** 0.5971*** -0.5438***

-0.0249 -0.1386* -0.1048
-0.0375 0.4093*** -0.5215***
-0.1616** 0.4896*** -0.6319***
0.7022*** 0.2127*** 0.2296***
0.3512*** 0.4941*** -0.2482***
0.6052*** 0.0022 0.3426***
0.3876*** 0.5927***
0.3876***
-0.2234***
0.5927*** -0.2234***
-

*, **, *** 90, 95, 99

: CEIC .

(Asset Class)

2
Dow Jones
2 2554 0.1323
2

9 Dow Jones
2

: CEIC .

97

 4 Dow Jones
2
Dow Jones
Dow Jones
2 Year US Bond Yield

0.1323*

2 Year US Bond Yield

0.1323*
-

* 90
: CEIC .

Dow Jones
0.5971 Dow Jones -

2554

Dow Jones

98

IMD 2554
27 2553
(Infrastructure) (Scientific)
(Technology)
Scientific Technology
(KnowledgeBased Society)

41 74
(Value Added)
(Re-export)

(Local Content)
30
--
4 1) 2) 3)
4)

1.
2551-2552

(International Institute for Management Development: IMD)
2554 4
27 59 26
74.886

99

 1 IMD 4

: IMD

19 ( 20 )
(Infrastructure) 47 46
(ASEAN)2 Infrastructure ( 55
57 ) ( 1 2)

100

(ASEAN) (Association of South East Asian Nations)

10

CLMV ( ) 59 IMD

 2 59

: IMD

2. Technology
Cobb-Douglas
(K) (L) Y = = A K L (

A Technical progress TFP)
(K) (L) (Factor Driven Economies)
(Efficiency Driven Economies)
Stage 2 World Economic Forum3: The Global
Competitiveness Report 2009-2010 Efficiency
(Innovation
Driven)

A Cobb-Douglas Technology Progress
(Y) ( 1)

WEF
(Bias)
WEF (/) Doing Business
World Bank IMD

101

 1 (Stage)

: IMD

Infrastructure (Basic)
(Scientific) (Technology) 20 40 52
Technology Infrastructure




(knowledge-based society)

: NESDB

102


GDP
41 74 GDP ( 3)


(
)

2 (% y-o-y) (GDP)
(MPI)

GDP 4 2540-2550
4.8 2552 -6.1 ( (MPI)5
-7.2 ) (Hamburger Crisis) 2553
5.2 ( MPI 5.2 ) 2

4
5

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

(.. 2543)
53 75.07

(m-o-m) (y-o-y)

103

8 2554
0.7 (MPI 0.7 )

( - 2554 -0.4 -1.6
-3.3 (y-o-y) )
6


(Value added)


( 2)
15.5
(core competency) (local content)
30

(local link, global reach)

104

3.
(Efficiency
Driven Economies: Stage 2) (K) (L)

(Labor Cost Advantage)
0.5
(Capital) (FDIs)
FDIs
2 Export Processing Zone (EPZ) Industrial Zone (IZ)

2



(Productivity)

3.1
1)
()

(AEC) 2558

(PIT) (CIT)

PIT CIT ( 3)
3 PIT CIT VAT

PIT
0-37%
3.5-20%
5-35%
5-30%
5-32%
5-45%

CIT
30%
17%
25%
28%
30%
25%

: http://www.worldwide-tax.com

105

 PIT


CIT .
CIT 30% 23% 1 2555 20% 2556

BOI


()

2)
2.1 (SFIs)

2.2

27 ( 2553-2557)
AEC 2015 1 ( 2553-2554)



( 31 2554) 2 ( 2555-2556)
3 ( 2557)

2.3

2.4

1

106

2 1 2547-2551

2.5

3) (Labor Productivity)




476 .. 2551 2 10

4)


Lean Manufacturing8 / Toyota Production System / Total Quality Management
(Incentive)
5) (Enabling Factors) (Supporting
Industry) /
(Conflict of Interest) (Supply Chain)
(Infrastructure)
Logistics & Supply Chain (Cluster)

6)

(R&D)
(Design)



SMEs
R&D 2

Lean Manufacturing
(waste) (Customer Satisfaction)

107


(Input) R&D
(GDP) 0.28 2554 0.22
R&D 1
GDP 2559
R&D 8-12 R&D
R&D 32.6 R&D
R&D

108

10 26.5
10

(High Growth)
(Increasing Market Share)
BRIC ( ) 7
10

1.



: 1)
2) 3) 4)

109

2.

(GDP) 10 6.0 ( 1)
50 (Export of Services)
(Linkages)

1 (GDP)

2.1
(Demand-side)
(Supply side) (Internal stability)
(External stability) ( 2)

1 50
2553 6.22 6.0 GDP

2 3.8 GDP 2553

3 9.4 GDP 2553

4 13.3 GDP 2553

110

5 2
2553 60

6

10 26.3
38 2553

= (Trade balance) + (Net services income & transfers)

111

3.
3.1 10

12.7
5.6 ( 1)
(SARS)
(Tsunami) 2009
3 ( 3)
( 26.2
2553)

1 10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10

10.1
()

10.8 10.0 11.7 11.5 13.8 14.5 14.6 14.1 15.9

12.7

% YoY

7.3

5.6

5.8

-7.4 16.5

-1.1

20.0

4.6

0.8

-3.0 12.6

3 ( 2525-2554)

112

3.2
9 2554

15 2554
11 2554

2554 2554

(High Record) 2554 9 2554
14.4 27.1 ( 4)
2553 12.6

4 () 25492554

2554

7

113

4.

Hodrick-Prescott Filter
25242553
10
2564 26.5
10 6.1 GDP ( 2)

2
GDP 10 (2555-2565)

( : )

10 (2555-2565)

()

*
()

GDP

2555

17,227,152

678,970

5.88

2556

18,073,062

712,309

5.91

2557

18,960,509

747,286

5.93

2558

19,891,532

783,980

5.95

2559

20,868,272

822,476

5.98

2560

21,892,972

862,862

6.00

2561

22,967,989

905,232

6.02

2562

24,095,793

949,682

6.05

2563

25,278,976

996,314

6.07

2564

26,520,257

1,045,236

6.09

:
* 39,413 ( 2551-2553)

114

5.


(Stability)

5.1



E-commerce
E-business Online


5.2

(Sustainable Tourism)




Green Logistic


1) (Low Carbon Tourism)
2) (Creative Tourism)


3

.
()

115


3 2554
8 2554
1 MLR 2554
1.55 6.31 2553 2.73 7.31 ( 1)

2554 2555

: . / .

1 (Depository institutions)
2554
( 2 3) 2554
10,899.9 17.2
1.4

11,162.6 11.4
1.0

116

: . / .

: . / .

2554
( 4 5) 2554
7,268.3 15.9
1.6 7,714.3
8.4
0.7

: . / .

: . / .

2554
( 6)
40 2554 16.7

60 15.4

117

: . / .

( 8) 45 ( 7) 31.4
18.4
2 2554 50.1
42.6 17.2
12.1 1.3
17.5
2 2554

: . / .

: . / .

: . / .

118

 2 2554 14.8
5
22
31.6
(Supply shortage)
2554
13 55
4 9.5
30 2553 (.)
. Loan to value ratio (LTV ratio)
() 10
2554
14.1
2554 74.4

10

: . / .

11

: . / .

2554

16
2555





1.6
15.4 8.5

119

Thailands Key Economic Indicators

(Economic Indicators)

120

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