2014

...
... ,

...

...

...


(core issues),

. , , ,
. ,

, ,

Characteristics



(23% factor)
(15% factor)

Trading/

()

Allocation

48
35%
25% AES & Contour
15% -2
10% -
6% /
4%
5%
100% Total

45
ECO
37%
30%
33%

PPA,

()

29
4%
38% CEZ
37% EVN
21% Energo Pro

Usage share
Xx% HV
Xx% MV
Xx% LV
Xx% HH

11

Source:

 (2014)

(must-run)
14

.
20
114

ECO
8

23

(2)

()

(1)

()

~2

18

,

147 ./

(free market)
26

Source: ,

20

24
~72

(1)

. .
16

11

,
~119 ./

~25

11

~105 ./

 .
10 ,

50
40
30

15
1

12

13

12
1

15
3

19

17

19

15
7

10

12

19

17

2014B

2015E

20
30

30

31

29

28

27

10

25

18

22

Exports & losses

Free market

Reg. market

0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: ; ; industry data; MEE analysis; MEE estimates; 2014 estimate based on data for first 8 months



,
2.9% 2019 ., -
(/) 3.7% ,
( )
-
.

. ,

-
7

 360 . .
2014
BGN/
MWh

1H 2014

501

501

Must purchase <<

230M

Key observations
Reg. market at 10 TWh in 1H14
10 TWh x (136-100) = BGN 360M

230M

220
190

220 ./

186

Must-run
-,
220 ./,

143

122M
141M

51M

136 ,

51M

~80

100 ,
~68

(188M)

~39

Solar AES

Cogen Wind Contour Hydro MI2

Source: , ,

NPP

TWh
8

 900 . .
12 2015 .
17,1 TWh

167

BGN 2 840M

Hydro

2.3

80

1.6

68
30

182
112
51

NPP

1.7

Contour

3.4

490

145
561
225

AES

190
2.6

Wind
Solar

1.4
1.3
Volume

- PPAs 70% ,
50%

500

2.5

Cogen

167 ./.
114 / ( 901 . .)
72 ./ ( )

253
185
501

665

,
,

Cost

Source: ; industry data; MEE analysis; estimates for current regulatory period to Jun 30, 2015


2013A
()
Electrical energy sales
Electrical energy purchases

LTM

25
26

26
27

(. .)

.

EBIT

2,972
(2,680)
(261)
(163)
(132)

2,919
(3,002)
(151)
(163)
(397)

( )

Net debt ( )

72
974
2,773
(1,727)

57
1,235
3,149
(1,857)

Source NEK, LTM 30.06.2014 .

1H 2014

- ,

(

- )

10

; ;
;

,
PPAs

(. , AES 3C, CG, )

; benchmarking of similar investments

PPAs
- risk-return

NPV //

, (
)

- .

...

11




( 15 )

- -

: , , ,
AES 3C and Contour Global: breakdown of investments, financing, return
-: , -,
, , ,

12