1

KHI PHN TCH & U T

CNG TY C PHN CHNG KHON
APEC

Chuyn vin phn tch:
Li c Dng

H Ni, ngy 20/03/2012



CNG TY C PHN CHNG KHON
APEC
Tr s: To nh APEC Building- S 14 L
i Hnh Hai B Trng - H Ni
in thoi: 04.35730200 Ext: 615
Fax: 04.35771966

BO CO PHN TCH NGN HNG
TMCP QUN I (MBB)
Khuyn ngh u t: Chng ti a ra khuyn ngh MUA i
vi c phiu MBB ti mc gi v iu kin th trng hin ti.

Gi mc tiu( VN) 18,000
Tng gi 31.5%

Tng quan MBB
MBB hin ang giao dch mc P/B d phng 1.1 ln, r hn
so vi mc 1.3 ln ca nhm CP ngn hng nim yt.
Kh c th duy tr li nhun cao trong nm 2013 nh trong
nhng nm gn y. Cng nh cc ngn hng nim yt khc,
kt qu kinh doanh cao khng cn c duy tr trong 2 nm
2011 v 2012. l do MBB ph thuc nhiu vo tng trng
tn dng hn l NIM. T nm 2008- 2012, thu nhp li thun
chim trung bnh 85% tng thu nhp hot ng, NIM nm 2012
t 4.53%, cao hn mc trung bnh cc ngn hng. Nm 2012,
ROA t 1.47%, ROE t 20.54%. Tng trng tn dng gim
trong nm 2012 cng vi thu nhp ngoi li khng tng trng
mnh tc ng tiu cc n kt qu kinh doanh v c th nh
hng tiu cc trong nm 2013 v trong iu kin tn dng kh
khn.
N xu cao hn d bo nhng d phng tht thot vn vay
vn y . Tiu chun phn loi n xu ca MBB khng
c kht khe nh cc tiu chun quc t( do p dng h thng
k ton VN, nh lng theo Q 493), nn c th n xu thc
t s cao hn mc MBB cng b nm 2012 l 1.86%. Nhm 4
tng 4 ln ln 432 t ng. D phng tht thot vn vn y
mc 96%, cao nht trong h thng cc ngn hng.
Qun tr ri ro tn dng tt. MBB c xem l ngn hng c
chnh sch qun tr ri ro hng u. T l cho vay/ huy ng
lun di 75%, nm 2012 t 63.25%, thp hn nhiu so vi
cc ngn hng cng ngnh.
C tc bng tin mt hp dn. C tc MBB chi tr l 15%
trong nm 2012 v k hoch duy tr t l ny n nm 2016.
CNG TY C PHN CHNG KHON APEC
KT NI NH U T


TNG QUAN

Ngn hng Qun i (MBB) c th
Vit Nam xt v tng ti sn (167,000 t
giao dch trn c nc, 2 chi nhnh ti L
dng t khong 2.2% v th phn huy ng t 3.6%.

Gi ngy 19/3/2013
S lng c phiu lu hnh( triu CP
Gi tr vn ha( t ng)
H s Beta

2010 2011
ROAA 1.92% 1.71%
ROAE 21.71% 22.96%
D phng/ n xu 89.09% 68.40%
T l n xu 1,35% 1,59%
BVPS 14,754.7 13,208.4
EPS 2,843.9 2,913.3

PHN TCH NGNH

2012- Mt nm kh khn vi tng tr

Theo Ngn hng Nh nc, tng tr
dng VND tng 11.51%, tn dng bng ngoi
hn ch la ha ca Chnh ph. Tn dng nng nghip, nng thn tng khong 8%, tn dng xut khu tng
000
020
040
060
080
100
120
140
160
180
01-03-12 01/17/2012 02-07-12 02/21/2012 03-06-12 03/20/2012 04-04-12 04/18/2012 05-
c thnh lp nm 1994 v l ngn hng ln th 8 trong h thng ngn h
000 t ng). Tnh n nm 2012, ngn hng c 181 chi nhnh v phng
c, 2 chi nhnh ti Lo v Campuchia. Tng s nhn vin l 5
phn huy ng t 3.6%.
13,000
u CP) 1,050
14,385
0.8

2011 2012
1.71% 1.47%
22.96% 20.54%
68.40% 147.78%
1,59% 1.84%
13,208.4 12864.5
2,913.3 2,311.16
t nm kh khn vi tng trng tn dng
c, tng trng tn dng ton h thng nm 2012 t 8.91%.
ng VND tng 11.51%, tn dng bng ngoi t gim 1.56% so vi cui nm 2011, ph
n ch la ha ca Chnh ph. Tn dng nng nghip, nng thn tng khong 8%, tn dng xut khu tng
005%
022%
000%
010%
020%
030%
040%
050%
060%
T 9-11 T 11-13
Volume at specific price 2012
-04-12 05/18/2012 06-01-12 06/15/2012 06/29/2012 07/13/2012 07/27/2012 08-10-12 08/24/2012 09-10-12 09/24/2012 10-08-12 10/22/2012
VN-index MBB
2
n th 8 trong h thng ngn hng
ngn hng c 181 chi nhnh v phng
n l 5,330 ngi. Th phn tn


thng nm 2012 t 8.91%. Trong , tn
gim 1.56% so vi cui nm 2011, ph hp vi ch trng
n ch la ha ca Chnh ph. Tn dng nng nghip, nng thn tng khong 8%, tn dng xut khu tng
052%
022%
T 13-15 T 15-17
Volume at specific price 2012
11-05-12 11/19/2012 12-03-12 12/17/2012

khong 14%, tn dng doanh nghip nh v
khuyn khch gim v chim t trng khong 4.4% so tng d
n cui nm 2012, tng phng
huy ng VND gim 3-6%/nm, li
sut vo cui nm 2007.
Trong nm 2012, VIB l ngn hng c tng tr
ngn hng c mc tng trng tn dng cao nht, 26.1%. C th thy ch c duy nht Sacombank v
KienlongBank l t k hoch tng tr
Ch tiu tng trng

Thanh khon ton h thng n nh, ci thin dn trong nm 2012
Nm 2012, thanh khon ton th trng khng c
S d tin gi ca TCTD ti
Li sut trn th trng lin
khng cn tnh trng cng th
Cc TCTD mua mt lng
thanh khon
Hot ng ca cc TCTD v
phc v tip tc c duy tr
14.1
15
13.5
19
17 17 17
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ng 14%, tn dng doanh nghip nh v va tng khong 6.15%. D n cho vay cc lnh vc k
m t trng khong 4.4% so tng d n cho vay nn kinh t.
phng tin thanh ton tng 22.4% so vi cui nm
li sut cho vay gim 5-9%/nm so vi cui nm 2011 v
Trong nm 2012, VIB l ngn hng c tng trng tn dng thp nht, -11.7%; trong khi MBB l
ng tn dng cao nht, 26.1%. C th thy ch c duy nht Sacombank v
t k hoch tng trng tn dng ra.
ng tn dng v thc hin ca mt s ngn hng
thng n nh, ci thin dn trong nm 2012
ng khng cn l vn ln. Th hin:
NHNN lun cao hn so vi yu cu d tr bt bu
lin ngn hng gim 10-11%/nm so vi u nm
thng v thanh khon, y li sut ln cao nh trong
ng ln tri phiu Chnh ph c cu li danh
v c bn an ton, lnh mnh, trt t k cng
tr n nh.
19
7.6
0.4
26.1
-0.5
-11.7
10.1
17 17 17
30
17 17
Thc hin 2012 Ch tiu 2012
3
cho vay cc lnh vc khng
cho vay nn kinh t.
nm 2011. Mt bng li sut
nm 2011 v tr v mc li
11.7%; trong khi MBB l
ng tn dng cao nht, 26.1%. C th thy ch c duy nht Sacombank v
nm 2012
buc
nm v n nh mc thp,
trong nm 2011
danh mc u t v d phng
cng th trng c khi
10.1
15 15.2
30
25
15

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Trong 2 qu u nm, trung ha lng tin mua ngoi hi, NHNN ht rng mt lng tin ln n
118,332 t ng. Nhng trong qu III, NHNN bm ra th trng tng cng 43,560 t ng, khng phi h
tr thanh khon m thanh ton lng tn phiu o hn ln n 36,067 t ng.
Hin tng tha thanh khon cng xy ra mt s ngn hng ln, khi tc tng trng huy ng ln
hn cho vay. iu ny tri ngc vi xu th cc nm trc.
S kin ngy 20/8/2012 lin quan n ACB khin cho cung tin trn OMO v li sut lin ngn hng
tng vt t 8% ln 8.8% do vic mt thanh khon tam thi ca mt s ngn hng lin quan.Tuy nhin trc
mc can thip ca NHNN( bm ra hn 26,000 t ng), th trng n nh tr li.
Li sut duy tr n nh trong nm 2012

Thi gian 24/12/2012 1/7/2012 11/6/2012 28/5/2012 10/4/2012 13/3/2012 u nm
2012
Li sut c bn 9%
Li sut iu hnh
Li sut ti cp vn 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
Li sut chit khu 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
Trn li sut huy
ng VN

Tin gi KH( 1-12
thng)
8% 9% 9% 11% 12% 13% 14%
Tin gi KKH 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Trn li sut cho vay
ngn hn VN
13% 13% 13% 14% 15%
Chnh lch cho vay
v huy ng
5% 4% 4% 3% 3%

T 24/12/2012, Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) a trn li sut huy ng gim xung cn
8%/nm. Theo cc DN vi mc li sut huy ng 8% th h hy vng cc ngn hng s cho vay ra mc 11-
12% nhng iu ny cha xy ra. Ti hi ngh mi y, Ngn hng Nh nc cho bit, nm 2013: s xem xt
b trn li sut huy ng. y c th coi l mt bc i tin ti t do ha li sut ca NHNN.
Ngoi ra, vic li sut huy ng tng cng chu tc ng t thng t 21( sit cht cho vay trn th
trng lin ngn hng) tc ng n ngn hng nh, ph thuc vo th trng lin ngn hng v mt s ngn
hng c t trng huy ng vn bng vng cao cng tin hnh ng trng thi, dn n nhu cu b thng
qua huy ng bng VN, y li sut huy ng ln cao.
N xu vn l gnh nng i vi h thng Ngn hng


5
T nm 2007, n xu c xu hng tng tr li v tr thnh vn cp thit u tin gii quyt trong
qu trnh ti cu trc ngnh ngn hng. Tng trng tn dng nng v qun l tn dng khng hiu qu c
cho l nguyn nhn dn n s gia tng ca n xu trong thi gian qua. Ngoi ra, trong nm 2011 v 2012,
vic cc khon vay thng mi ch yu c th chp bng bt ng sn v th trng ny ang ng bng
mt thi gian di km theo l tnh trng kh khan trong kinh doanh nhiu doanh nghip t nhn lm cho
nguy c n kh i tng mnh.


6
NH GI TNH HNH HOT NG

Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh: Nm 2012: Nm hot ng kh khn i vi MBB

Tuy kt qu kinh doanh c tng trng nhng chm hn so vi cc nm trc. Nguyn nhn ch yu
n t chi ph d phng ri ro tn dng trong nm 2012, tng gp 3 ln so vi 2011.
Nm 2011, MBB thu c tng trng li nhun ln t chng khon( hn 25 ln so vi 2010), tuy
nhin li b khon l ln do vng v ngoi hi( hn 65 ln). Nm 2012, MBB thu hp li c 2 mng l
kinh doanh ngoi hi v chng khon kinh doanh.
C ng thiu s nm 2011 cng chng kin s st gim mnh, cho thy kh khn chung ca cc
doanh nghip (gim hn 6 ln). n nm 2012, tnh hnh tuy vn cn kh khn nhng tnh hnh kh quan
hn.
Trong 4 qu 2012, qu 4 c cc khon thu nhp tng trong nm( so vi cc qu trc). V d nh thu
nhp li thun, thu nhp t hot ng dch v. Tuy nhin, MBB cng chu khon l t kinh doanh ngoi hi
v vng trong qu 4, gim 2,5 ln doanh thu so vi cc qu trc do Thng t mi ban hnh v vng ca
NHNN. Ngoi ra, KQKD khng nh mong i trong nm 2012 do khon d phng ri ro tn dng ln, tng
mnh trong qu 1, qu 4.
Qu 4 c tng thu nhp hot ng tng mnh nht trong 8 qu gn y nht, tuy nhin li cng c s
tng mnh hn bi chi ph hot ng. Cng thm khon chi ph d phng ri ro tn dng lm cho MBB ch
t 41% tng trng li nhun thun trong qu 4 so vi qu 3, thp nht trong 8 qu gn y nht.
Thu nhp t li: Hot ng kinh doanh ct li vn n nh


19%
61%
20%
Thu nhp li tin gi
Thu nhp li vay
khch hng
Thu li t u t
chng khon
85%
7%
8%
Tr li tin gi
Tr li tin vay
Tr li pht hnh giy
t c gi

7

( Nm 2012- Ngun: BCTC MBB)
Mc thu li t hot ng kinh doanh chng khon gim ng k t nm 2009, t 20% xung cn
12% nm 2011. Theo , MBB tp trung hn vo mng chnh ca ngn hng, thu li vay khch hng. T
trng doanh thu tng t bin trong nm 2011, 61% so vi 54% trong nm 2010. T trng chi ph tr li
tin gi ca MBB lun gi mc n nh( 80%), ring nm 2010 gim xung cn 74%.
Mng doanh thu, chi ph t hot ng dch v ch yu n t Core- Business ca MBB. So vi nm
2007, doanh thu n t mua chng khon, qun l qu gim rt mnh, tng ng t 36% v 20% xung ch
cn 2-3%. B vo l doanh thu t hot ng bo lnh v thanh ton tin mt. Nm 2011 cng chng kin
doanh thu bt thng n t hot ng Mua bn, thu hi v thm nh tng hn 400 t so vi nm 2010.

Hot ng tn dng, huy ng vn: LDR thp nh tng huy ng tin gi n nh

Tng trng tn dng vn mc cao.
2012KH % so vi 2011 2012 TT % KH
Tng HV 140,000 116% 148,259 105.90%
D n tn dng 72,284 117% 115,989 160.46%

Tng trng tn dng ca MBB
trung bnh tng 40% t nm 2008-
2011, ring nm 2012, tng trng
tn dng vt mc k hoch
ra.
C 3 nguyn nhn:
Trong nm 2012, MBB m rng thm hn 70 chi nhnh min Trung v min Nam nhm m rng
hot ng hin tp trung ch yu min Bc.
Nn tng khch hng vng chc. Khch hng MBB bao gm nhiu tp on ln nh Viettel,
Vinacomin, Saigon New Port, ng thi cng l c ng chnh ca MBB, em li cho MBB ngun
vn huy ng thp.
Trong cc nm qua, MBB cng t mc NIM trn trung bnh ngnh, nm 2012 t 4.58%, duy tr n
nh qua cc nm.
50%
20%
7%
3%
3%
3%
6%
8%
Thu nhp
Bo lnh
Thanh ton tin
mt
Chng khon
Qun l qu
39%
13%
9%
24%
9%
6%
Chi ph
Thanh ton tin
mt
Kinh doanh khch
sn
Mua bn, thu
hi, thm nh
Qun l DV cho
thu

8
LDR ca MBB c duy tr ti mc 65-70% trong cc nm qua, nm 2012 t 63%, thp hn hn so vi cc
ngn hng khc. iu ny bt ngun t hot ng kim sot ri ro tt ca MBB.

Cho vay khch hng
D n cho vay ca MBB vn ch yu cho vc t chc KT, c nhn trong nc.
Cht lng cho vay: N xu thp, nh hn 1.9% so vi KH, tuy nhin t trng n c kh nng mt vn
chim hn na trong n xu( khc r rt so vi cc nm trc).
Thi hn cho vay: MBB c k hoch cho vay rt nghim ngt. Trong cc nm qua, 60-65% khon vay l
ngn hn, 20-25% cho vay trung hn hn, v cn li l di hn.
i tng khch hng: Loi hnh doanh nghip- Ngnh kinh t

( 2012- Ngun: BCTC)
i tng khch hng ch yu l cc T chc kinh t, trong cc cng ty C phn chim hn 40%.
Ngoi ra, MBB ang gim dn t trng cho vay trong nhm Doanh nghip Nh nc, c th DNNN TW
gim t 13% nm 2007 xung cn 5.29% nm 2012. Thay vo l loi hnh cng ty TNHH tng kh nhanh
trong nhng nm gn y, TNHH NN v TN ln lt l 11% v 24.78% nm 2012. Loi hnh cho vay c
nhn c xu hng cht ch hn, gim nh.
V ngnh kinh t, MBB ang tp trung vo 2 ngnh chnh l CN ch bin v Thng nghip, sa
cha xe c ng c, moto, xe my, dung CN v G, ln lt chim t trng 26.95% v 16.29% nm
2012. Tuy nhin chng li c x khc bit r nt. Khi m t trng ngnh CN ch bin c xu hng tng th
Thng nghip li gim rt mnh. iu ny cho thy MBB ang ngy cng bm st vo chnh sch pht trin
ngnh kinh t ca Vit Nam. Bn cnh , cc ngnh kinh t quan trng, nh SX v PP in nc kh t v
CN khai thc m cng c t trng tng ng k. y l nhng ngnh kinh t lin quan trc tip n dn sinh.
5%
1%
11%
25%
5%
39%
1%
1%
12%
DNNN TW
DNNN P
TNHH NN
TNHH TN
CPNN
CP khc
DNTN
Khc
C nhn
7%
5%
31%
13%
8%
19%
0% 9%
6%
1%
1%
Nng- lm nghip
CN khai thc m
CN ch bin
SX v PP in kh
t v nc
XD
Khch sn, nh hng
Vn ti, kho bi, thng
tin lin lc
Cc h lin quan KD
ti sn v DV t vn
H phc v c nhn
v cng ng
Khc

9
Bn cnh , Nng- lm nghip cng lun c MBB gi n nh mc 5-6% hng nm trong t trng cho
vay ngnh kinh t.

PHN TCH TI CHNH

Hiu qu hot ng mc cao

Trong nm 2012, c ROAA v ROAE u gim so vi nm 2011, tuy nhin vn cao hn so vi mc
trung bnh ngnh. C th nm 2012, ROAE 20.49% v ROAA t 1.47%, cao hn nhiu so vi nhm ngn
hng nim yt.
T l CIR thp, kim sot chi ph mc thp, gi n nh mc 30- 35%. Nm 2011, CIR tng ln
40% do vic m rng mng li chi nhnh( sang Campuchia) v chi ph lao ng tng 60%.
Ch tiu hiu qu hot ng mt s Ngn hng nim yt nm 2012
Ch tiu MBB EIB VCB CTG ACB
ROA( %) 1.47 1.21 1.13 1.28 0.41
ROE( %) 20.49 13.31 12.42 19.83 7.51
CIR( %) 34.52 42.63 40.03 42.95 71.49

NIM lun duy tr mc cao. MBB lun duy tr NIM cao nht ngnh, thng ch sau CTG. Tuy nhin
nm 2012, NIM c gim nh t 4.64% nm 2011 xung 4.53% do vic iu chnh h li sut ca Chnh ph
v hn ch tng trng tn dng.


N xu tng nhng vn trong mc cho php.
003%
004%
003%
005%
005%
004%
000%
001%
002%
003%
004%
005%
006%
VCB ACB EIB MBB STB CTG
2010
2011
2012


T l n xu nm 2012 ca MBB l
1.9% nh trong k hoch ra u nm 2012. Tuy nhi
gn 4 ln so vi nm 2011, lm cho t
phn bt ngun t khon n xu ca TLS, mng kinh doanh chng khon gp nhiu kh khn trong nm
2012.

MBB vn duy tr CAR cao h
9.6% nm 2011. Trong nm 2012, CAR tng ln t
hnh c phiu mi khc.
Thanh khon n nh.

Do tng trng tin gi huy ng duy tr
lin ngn hng. Hn na, t l cho vay/huy ng duy tr
qun tr ri ro hng u Vit Nam.
0 0.5 1
MBB
EIB
VCB
CTG
ACB
063%
106%
004%
000%
MBB EIB
Cho vay/ Huy ng
T l an ton vn ti thiu.
l n xu nm 2012 ca MBB l 1.86%, cao hn so vi mc 1.68% nm 2011, tuy nhi
hoch ra u nm 2012. Tuy nhin theo nh bo co ca MBB, n nhm 4 tng cao
m cho t l n nghi ng v n c kh nng mt vn chim 80%. c th mt
n bt ngun t khon n xu ca TLS, mng kinh doanh chng khon gp nhiu kh khn trong nm
CAR cao hn mc 9% ca NHNN. T l ny gim t mc 12.4% nm
9.6% nm 2011. Trong nm 2012, CAR tng ln t vic pht hnh them c phiu cho Viettel v
ng tin gi huy ng duy tr u n khin MBB t chu nh h
a, t l cho vay/huy ng duy tr mc 65-70% khin MBB lun gi v tr ngn h
1.84
1.32
2.26
1.47
2.5
1.5 2 2.5
N xu
085%
116%
082%
001% 001% 000%
VCB CTG ACB
Cho vay/ Huy ng D phng/ cho vay
10
i mc 1.68% nm 2011, tuy nhin vn di
a MBB, n nhm 4 tng cao
nng mt vn chim 80%. c th mt
n bt ngun t khon n xu ca TLS, mng kinh doanh chng khon gp nhiu kh khn trong nm

m t mc 12.4% nm 2008 xung
phiu cho Viettel v cc t pht
u n khin MBB t chu nh hng t ngun vn vay
n MBB lun gi v tr ngn hng

3
000%

11

PHN TCH SWOT

IM MNH

Nm trong top 10 ngn hang ln nht v th
phn cho vay v huy ng.
MBB l ngn hng qun tr ri ro hng u Vit
Nam hin nay. Hn na, y li ang l chin
lc ca HQT trong bi cnh tnh hnh kinh t
cn nhiu bt n. Thanh khon MBB tt.
Hiu qu hot ng ca MBB kh cao, th hin
c ch tiu tng trng doanh thu ln ch tiu
chi ph, c bit l hot ng ct li ca ngn
hng- thu tin t hot ng thu nhp li thun.
c h tr rt ln t c ng v cc i tc
chin lc c v cng ngh ln mng li hot
ng.

IM YU

Chu nh hng t KQKD khng tt ca TLC.
Gp kh khn t cc chnh sch hn ch tng
trng tn dng, trong khi y li l hot ng
kinh doanh ct li.
C HI

C c hi t tc tng trng cao hn trung
bnh ngnh do c ngun huy ng vn tt v n
nh.
Tim nng pht trin cc th trng nh
Campuchia, Lo, mt s vng min nng thn
Vit Nam di s bo tr ca Viettel.
THCH THC

Cnh tranh ngnh ngn hng ngy cng gay gt.
nh hng mnh m t s bt n kinh t v
ngnh ngn hng, nh n xu,

D BO V NH GI

Chng ti s dng phng php nh gi DDM, P/E, P/B i vi c phiu MBB.
MBB c k hoch chi tr c tc u n trong cc nm qua v hin ang d nh chi tr u n 15% hng
nm n nm 2016( tng ng li sut 10%).
DDM(40%) P/E( 30%) P/B( 30%)
LS chit khu 7% P/E ngnh 8.2 P/B 1.1
C tc hng
nm 15% EPS fw 2,200 BV 12,259
P Value 21,428.57 P Value 18,040
P
Value 13,484.9
Price target 18,028.9
Gi hin ti 13,700
Tng trng 31.60%

Cn nhc cc yu t trn,
chng ti khuyn ngh MUA i
vi c phiu ny.



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Bo co ny c thc hin bi cc chuyn gia phn tch ca Cng Ty C Phn Chng Khon Chu
Thi Bnh Dng - APEC, bi phn tch ch c gi tr tham kho, APEC khng chu bt c trch
nhim no i vi vic s dng ti liu ny.



Pht hnh bi: Phng Phn Tch - Cng Ty C Phn Chng Khon Chu Thi Bnh Dng - APEC
Hi S Chnh:
Address: Ta nh APEC Building, s 14 L i Hnh, Q.Hai B Trng, TP. H Ni
Tel: (84- 4) 3573 0200 EXT: 615
Fax: (84- 4) 35771966
Email: research@apec.com.vn; Website: http://www.apec.com.vn




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