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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
21/05/2012














































Li nhun tt, nh gi hp dn

Ngn hng Thng mi C phn Qun i (MBB) c thnh lp nm 1994
v hin nay l ngn hng TMCP ln th t v ngn hng ln th tm trong h
thng ngn hng Vit Nam vi tng ti sn tr gi 141.688 t ng (6,8 t USD).
MBB hin ang c 166 chi nhnh v vn phng giao dch, ch yu tp trung
min Bc; d kin s m thm 74 chi nhnh v VP giao dch na trong nm
2012, tp trung hn min Trung v min Nam. MBB c 4.439 nhn vin,
trong 77% c bng thc s. Viettel l c ng ln nht, nm gi 19% c
phn. Cc c ng ln khc bao gm Vietcombank (11%) v Maritime Bank
(8%).
Chng ti tin hnh bo co ln u MBB vi khuyn ngh THM VO v
gi mc tiu 17.300 ng. Mc gi mc tiu 17.300 ng cao hn 15% so vi
gi hin ti l 15.000 ng. MBB hin ang giao dch ti mc P/B d phng
2012 1,2x so vi mc 1,7x ca cc ngn hng khc v P/E d phng 2012
5,6x (EPS 2.665 ng) so vi P/E ca cc ngn hng khc l 9,3x. C phiu
MBB hp dn nh P/E v P/B c nh gi tng i r so vi c phiu cc
ngn hng khc. Cc ngn hng m chng ti so snh gm ACB, CTG, EIB,
STB, v VCB. Chng ti cng cho rng kh nng c chn vo danh mc
ETF cng em n tim nng tng gi ngn hn cho MBB.
C tc bng tin mt hp dn. Nm 2012, ngn hng thng qua mc c
tc bng tin mt 1.500 ng/c phiu, tng ng sut sinh li 10% gi th
trng hin nay. MBB d kin tr c tc mc 1.500 ng/nm cho n nm
2016.
MBB giao dch ti mc P/B chit khu trung bnh 33% so vi cc ngn
hng c nim yt khc. T khi c nim yt vo thng 11/2011, c phiu
MBB giao dch ti mc chit khu PB cao so vi cc ngn hng khc.
Chng ti cho rng mc chit khu ny l cha hp l so vi nn tng khch
hng vng chc, hiu qu hot ng cao, ngun thu nhp ngoi li n nh v
tim nng tng trng li nhun nm 2012 ca MBB.
Nn tng khch hng vng chc gip tn dng v huy ng tng trng
mnh. Khch hng ca MBB bao gm nhiu tp on ln nh Viettel,
Vinacomin, Saigon New Port, Vietnam Helicopter, Tp on Sng v PVN.
Trong s , mt s ng thi cng l cc c ng chnh ca MBB. Nn tng
khch hng vng chc cng s h tr ca cc c ng ln gip em li cho
MBB chi ph huy ng vn thp, gp phn y mnh tng trng tn dng v
huy ng. Trong vng vi nm qua, MBB cng t mc NIM trn trung bnh
ngnh, vi mc cao nht l 4,7% so vi mc 4,1% ca cc ngn hng khc
vo nm 2011, nh chi ph vn thp ch khong 8% so vi mc 9-10% ca cc
ngn hng khc.



Dng Phm
Chuyn vin
duong.phamthuy@vcsc.com.vn
+84 8 3914 3588 ext. 130


Bo co ln u

Gi mc tiu 17.300
Tng 15%


Ngn hng

Cc ch s chnh
Gi ngy 21/05/2012 15,000
Gi thp nht 52 tun 9,837
Gi cao nht 52 tun 16,500
KLGD bnh qun 30 ngy 3,912,481
S lng c phiu lu hnh (triu) 1,000
Gi tr vn ha (T VND) 15,100
Ga tr vn ha (Triu USD) 719
S hu nc ngoi 3.6%

nh gi 2011 2012F 2013F
EPS (VND) 2,915 2,665 2,308
Tng trng EPS 7.2% -8.6% -13.4%
P/E (th gi) 5.1x 5.6x 6.5x
P/B (th gi) 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x
ROE 23.0% 20.7% 18.3%
ROA 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%
NPL 1.6% 1.9% 1.9%
CAR 9.6% 14.0% 14.0%


Din bin gi 3M 6M 12M
Tuyt i -1.3% 49.2% N/A
Tng i 2.5% 34.6% N/A


C cu c ng
Viettel 19%
VCB 11%
Maritime Bank 8%
Helicopter Co. 5%

-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
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MBB VNIndex





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Hiu qu hot ng cao. MBB t ROAA 1,7% trong nm 2011 so vi mc 1,6% ca cc
ngn hng c nim yt khc. ROAE 23% ca MBB nm 2011 cng cao hn mc 20,8%
ca cc ngn hng khc. Ngn hng cng qun l chi ph hiu qu, c th l t l chi ph-thu
nhp (CIR) vo khong 30-36% so vi mc trung bnh 41% ca cc ngn hng khc. Chng
ti cng lu rng CIR gim xung 28,2% trong qu 1/2012.
Ri ro khuyn ngh. Ri ro n lin quan n hot ng ca cng ty con Chng khon
Thng Long (TLS) v vic pha long do pht hnh thm c phiu v tri phiu chuyn i
ngoi c tnh c th gy ra ri ro gim gi i vi i vi khuyn ngh ca chng ti. Tuy
nhin, chng ti cho rng cc ri ro lin quan n Chng khon Thng Long c th c
gim thiu trong nm nay v cng nh nhng li ch em li t vic tham gia ca i tc
chin lc.

Lun im u t
Chng ti tin hnh bo co ln u MBB vi khuyn ngh THM VO v gi mc tiu
17.300 ng. Mc gi mc tiu 17.300 ng cao hn 15% so vi gi hin ti l 15.000 ng.
MBB hin ang giao dch ti mc P/B d phng 2012 1,2x so vi mc 1,7x ca cc ngn
hng khc v P/E d phng 2012 5,6x (EPS 2.665 ng) so vi P/E ca cc ngn hng khc
l 9,3x. C phiu MBB hp dn nh P/E v P/B c nh gi tng i r so vi c phiu
cc ngn hng khc. Cc ngn hng m chng ti so snh gm ACB, CTG, EIB, STB, v
VCB. Chng ti cng cho rng kh nng c chn vo danh mc ETF cng em n tim
nng tng gi ngn hn cho MBB.
C tc bng tin mt hp dn. Nm 2012, ngn hng thng qua mc c tc bng tin
mt 1.500 ng/c phiu, tng ng sut sinh li 10% gi th trng hin nay. Thc t,
MBB d kin tr c tc mc 1.500 ng/nm cho n nm 2016.
MBB giao dch ti mc P/B chit khu trung bnh 33% so vi cc ngn hng c nim
yt khc. T khi c nim yt vo thng 11/2011, c phiu MBB giao dch ti mc chit
khu PB cao so vi cc ngn hng khc. Chng ti cho rng mc chit khu ny l cha
hp l vi nn tng khch hng vng chc, hiu qu hot ng cao, ngun thu nhp ngoi li
n nh v tim nng tng trng li nhun nm 2012 ca MBB.
Nn tng khch hng vng chc gip tn dng v huy ng tng trng
bn vng.
Khch hng ca MBB bao gm nhiu tp on ln nh Viettel, Vinacomin, Saigon New Port,
Vietnam Helicopter, Tp on Sng v PVN. Trong s , mt s ng thi cng l cc
c ng chnh ca MBB. Nn tng khch hng vng chc quyn li ca cc c ng ln gip
em li cho MBB chi ph huy ng vn thp, gp phn y mnh tng trng tn dng v huy
ng. Trong vng vi nm qua, MBB cng t mc NIM trn trung bnh ngnh, vi mc cao
nht l 4,7% so vi mc 4,1% ca cc ngn hng khc vo nm 2011, nh chi ph vn thp
ch khong 8% so vi mc 9-10% ca cc ngn hng khc.
Tng trng tn dng vn mc cao. Tng trng tn dng trung bnh nm ca MBB t
40% t 2008 n 2011. Nm 2011, MBB c chp thun tng trng tn dng 28,3%, trn
mc gii hn 20. Tng trng tn dng qu 1 ca MBB t 3,9%, nh vy c kh nng MBB
s t c mc tiu tng trng tn dng 17% trong nm ny. MBB p dng chin lc thu
ht khch hng bng cch cho vay vi li sut cnh tranh hn so vi cc ngn hng nh khi
cc NH ny gp kh khn thanh khon trong nm 2011.





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Vic m rng chi nhnh s gp phn y mnh tng trng tn dng. MBB d nh m
thm 74 chi nhnh trong nm 2012, ch yu min Trung v min Nam nhm m rng
phm vi hot ng, hin ch yu ti min Bc. K hoch ny s nng s chi nhnh v vn
phng giao dch ca MBB ln 240.
Hnh 1a: Tng trng tn dng mnh Hnh 1b: Tng trng huy ng tin gi cao hn cc
ngn hng khc
Ngun: cc ngn hng, VCSC
Ngun vn huy ng di do h tr tng trng. Huy ng khch hng tng trung bnh
35%/nm t nm 2008 n 2011. Ngn hng tng trng huy ng 36% trong nm 2011
ngay c khi ton h thng ngn hng tng trng huy ng ch c 9,9%. Ngn hng t mc
tiu tng trng tin gi huy ng t khch hng nm 2012 l 21%, kh nng t c l
kh cao do tng trng huy ng Qu 1/2012 t 5,9%.
Ngun vn chi phi thp n t khch hng doanh nghip. Quan h mt thit vi cc
khch hng ln v cc doanh nghip trong qun i em li cho ngn hng mt s li th
nht nh. T l huy ng vn khng k hn trn tng huy ng cao. C th, MBB cung cp
dch v tr lng cho Viettel; thanh ton dch v cho cc i tc ca Tp on Tn Cng,
dch v thu thu cho Cc Hi Quan v Kho Bc Nh Nc. V vy, tin gi khng k hn ti
MBB chim t l cao 27,4% so vi mc trung bnh ca cc ngn hng nim yt khc l 16%
trong nm 2011. Qu 1/2012 tin gi khng k hn ti mc cao 27,7%.
T l LDR thp nh tng huy ng tin gi n nh. MBB lun gi quan h mt thit vi
cc khch hng doanh nghip. C th, nm 2008 MBB ch ng tip cn cc khch hng
doanh nghip h tr vn trong khi cc khch hng ny b cc ngn hng khc t chi h
tr. iu ny cng c quan h ca MBB vi khch hng, gip cho MBB c lng huy
ng n nh.
LDR ca MBB c duy tr ti mc 68% t 2008 n 2011, thp hn hn so vi cc ngn
hng khc. Vi LDR thp nh vy, MBB khng gp phi nhiu ri ro thanh khon cng nh
NIM t chu p lc nu NHNN quyt nh h LDR t ngng 80% hin ti.





80.5%
67.3%
28.3%
3.9%
2009 2010 2011 1Q2012
EIB CTG VCB STB ACB MBB
47.2%
64.4%
35.4%
5.9%
2009 2010 2011 1Q2012
EIB STB VCB CTG ACB MBB





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Hnh 2a: Tin gi khng k hn cao nht trong s cc
ngn hng
Hnh 2b: LDR thp nht so vi cc ngn hng khc
Ngun: s liu cc ngn hng, VCSC
Hiu qu hot ng cao hn
MBB t ROAA 1,7% trong nm 2011 so vi mc 1,6% ca cc ngn hng c nim yt
khc. Mc ROAE 23% ca MBB nm 2011 cng cao hn mc trung bnh 20.8% ca cc
ngn hng khc. Ngn hng cng qun l chi ph tt, c th l CIR vo khong 30-36% so
vi mc trung bnh 41% ca cc ngn hng khc.
Hnh 3a: ROAA cao th hai, ch sau EIB Hnh 3b: ROAE n nh vo khong 20%
Ngun: d liu ngn hng, VCSC
T l CIR thp cho thy hiu qu trong vic tit kim chi ph. T trc n nay MBB lun
hiu qu trong vic tit kim chi ph, c th l t l kh thp, trung bnh 31,4% t 2008 n
2010. D nm 2011 CIR tng vt ln 36,5% do vic m rng mng li chi nhnh v chi ph
lao ng tng 62% th vn thp hn so vi mc trung bnh 41% ca cc ngn hng khc.
Chng ti xin lu rng CIR gim xung 28,2% trong qu 1/2012.



36.4%
30.6%
27.4% 27.7%
2009 2010 2011 Q1 FY12
ACB EIB STB CTG VCB MBB
74% 74%
66%
64%
FY09 FY10 FY11 Q1 FY12
EIB CTG STB VCB ACB MBB
1.9%
1.9% 1.7%
2009 2010 2011
VCB ACB STB CTG MBB EIB
19.4%
21.7%
23.0%
2009 2010 2011
STB VCB EIB MBB ACB CTG





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Hnh 4: CIR thp so vi cc ngn hng khc

Ngun: Bloomberg, VCSC
NIM vo loi tt nht, kh nng duy tr cao. T trc n nay, MBB lun duy tr NIM vo
loi cao nht ngnh. Nm 2011, MBB t NIM 4,7%, ch thp hn ca mc 5,1% ca CTG.
Li sut cho vay ca MBB cng xp x vi ca cc ngn hng khc ti mc 15% do cc
doanh nghip va v nh chim t l kh cao (62% tng s cho vay). Nhng chi ph vn ca
MBB kh thp mc 8% so vi cc ngn hng khc t 9-11% (hnh 8b) nh t l tin gi
huy ng khng k hn cao. Ngoi vic cho vay trn th trng s cp, MBB cng cho vay
rng trn th trng lin ngn hng. Vi vai tr cho vay ny trn th trng lin ngn hng,
MBB t kh nng sinh li cao nm 2011 khi h thng ngn hng gp phi cc vn
kh khn v thanh khon.
Tuy nhin, chng ti tin rng trong nm 2012, NIM ca MBB s iu chnh nh do n lc ca
chnh ph nhm h li sut cho vay v hn ch tng trng tn dng ti mc 17%, nh
hng th hin r hn trong 6 thng cui nm. Nu trn tng trng tn dng c bi b,
NIM s c kh nng ci thin.
Hnh 5a: NIM cao nh chi ph vn thp Hnh 5b: Li sut cho vay & huy ng 2011

Ngun: cc ngn hng, VCSC Ngun: cc ngn hng, VCSC



29.5%
30.7%
36.5%
28.2%
2009 2010 2011 1Q2012
CTG STB ACB VCB EIB MBB
3.5%
4.3%
4.7%
2009 2010 2011
VCB ACB EIB MBB STB CTG
15%
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Li sut cho vay Chi ph huy ng
VCB
CTG
ACB
STB
EIB
MBB





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Vn cn room cho tng trng doanh thu ngoi li
V tr n nh trong lnh vc ti tr vn cho thng mi. MBB c hng mt s thun
li nht nh v cc dch v bo lnh, th hin qua gi tr cc hp ng bo lnh trn bng
cn i ngoi bng. Gi tr ca cc hp ng ny cao hn 27% so vi tng d n ca MBB
trong nm 2011, trong cc cc cam kt L/C ng gp 84%. Tha thun L/C ny theo ch
nh ca B Ti chnh v khng nhiu ri ro. Doanh thu bo lnh ca MBB lun cao hn ca
cc ngn hng khc, ch sau BIDV v CTG. Doanh thu bo lnh ca ngn hng tng mnh
88% nm 2010 v 79% nm 2011. Cc dch v thanh ton cng ci thin, vi tng trng
doanh thu thanh ton 28% nm 2010 v 17% nm 2011.
Vn cn tim nng pht trin mng ngn hng bn l. Mng ngn hng bn l ca
MBB vn cha c pht trin mnh nhng chng ti cho rng s tham gia ca Viettel s
gip MBB pht trin mng dch v ny. Viettel l nh cung cp dch v in thoi di ng
hng u, nm trong s 10 doanh nghip ln nht Vit Nam, c c s d liu khch hng
khng l vi trn 61 triu ti khon. C hai bn s hng li t vic khai thc c s khch
hng ca nhau. Viettel cng s gip MBB nng cp h thng thanh ton qua mng v in
thoi di ng. Ngoi ra, MBB c th tn dng v tr dn u ca Viettel ti Lo v Campuchia
m rng mng li khch hng ra ngoi lnh th Vit Nam.
Hnh 6a: Doanh thu bo lnh ca cc ngn hng (t
ng)
Hnh 6b: C cu thu nhp t hot ng ca MBB
Ngun: Banks, VCSC Ngun: MBB, VCSC
Vic c a vo danh mc ETF c th to ra kh nng tng gi ngn
hn.
Vo u thng 03/2012, MBB c a vo ch s FTSE Vietnam All Share Index ca
Deutsche Bank, do d bo c th ngn hng s c a vo ch s FTSE Vietnam
Index (DB X-Tracker) vo thng 6 sau khi FTSE Vietnam Index c iu chnh. Chng ti
cho rng rt c th MBB s c a vo r DB X-Tracker do tha mn cc tiu ch ca ch
s v quy m, thanh khon, s lng c phiu c lu hnh t do v room cho cc nh
u t nc ngoi. Chng ti d bo gi c phiu MBB c th tng ngn hn nu MBB c
a vo r ETF DB X-Tracker.
MBB hin l mt trong 10 c phiu ln nht v gi tr vn ha trn sn HOSE nhng l c
phiu duy nht cha c a vo DB X-Tracker, khng k EIB v VNM b loi tr v room
cho nh u t nc ngoi y. MBB l c phiu c thanh khon cao nht trn sn HOSE
vi gi tr giao dch hng ngy trung bnh trong 3 thng l 69 t ng (khong 3,3 triu USD).
MBB c khong 40% free float v cn 4% room cho khi ngoi, p ng hai tiu ch cui
209
373
2010 2011
ACB STB EIB VCB MBB CTG BIDV
87%
69%
86%
101%
96%
12%
14%
14%
12%
9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q2012
Cc ngun thu khc Li t HD ngoi hi
Li t HD dch v Thu nhp li thun





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
cng. 20% room khi ngoi ti MBB b kha cho i tc chin lc hin vn cha c quyt
nh.
Hnh 7: 10 m c gi tr vn ha ln nht trn sn HOSE
M
C phiu lu
hnh (triu)
Gi hin ti
(ng)
Gi tr vn
ha (ng)
Gi tr giao dch
hng ngy
trung bnh trong
3 thng (triu
ng) DB X-Tracker
VCB 2.317 34.200 79.256 22.896 Included
CTG 2.622 22.400 58.727 20.796 Included
VIC 549 103.000 56.586 15.825 Included
MSN 515 105.000 54.104 17.887 Included
VNM 556 90.500 50.299 7.198 Foreign room full
BVH 680 68.500 46.612 7.489 Included
STB 974 25.900 25.226 47.976 Included
EIB 1.236 18.600 22.981 52.333 Foreign room full
HAG 537 31.200 16.766 35.065 Included
MBB 1.000 15.600 15.600 69.074 Not included yet
Ngun: Bloomberg, VCSC

Ri ro khuyn ngh
Ri ro n lin quan n hot ng ca cng ty con Chng khon Thng Long (TLS) v vic
pha long do pht hnh thm c phiu v tri phiu chuyn i ngoi c tnh c th gy ra
ri ro gim gi i vi i vi khuyn ngh ca chng ti. Tuy nhin, chng ti cho rng cc
ri ro lin quan n Chng khon Thng Long c th c gim thiu trong nm nay v cng
nh nhng li ch em li t vic tham gia ca i tc chin lc.
Hiu ng pha long t vic tng vn iu l
K hoch huy ng vn y tham vng ca MBB gy ra nhiu lo ngi v pha long. Tuy
nhin, theo c tnh ca chng ti, hiu ng pha long, c th l nh hng ln li nhun/c
phiu (EPS) v gi tr s sch/c phiu (BVPS) l khng ng k.
Ngn hng va tng vn iu l t 7.300 t ng ln 10.000 t ng sau khi pht hnh thm
100 triu c phiu cho Viettel vi mc chit khu 25% so vi gi th trng vo thng
03/2012 l khong 10.700 ng/c phiu. Ngn hng d kin s pht hnh thm 62,5 triu c
phiu dnh cho cc c ng hin ti vi mc gi 10.000 ng/c phiu v thm 237,5 triu
c phiu cho i tc chin lc trong nc vi mc chit khu ti a l 25% so vi gi th
trng trong qu 3/2012. Chng ti d on rng cc c phiu mi ny s li c pht
hnh cho Viettel v/hoc cc c ng ln khc hin nay.












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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Hnh 8: K hoch pht hnh thm c phiu v tri phiu chuyn i ca MBB
t pht hnh
62,5 triu
CP ph thng
237,5 triu
CP ph thng
1.000 t ng
TP chuyn i
3.000 t ng TP
chuyn i
i tng: C ng hin ti
i tc chin lc
trong nc
C ng hin ti
i tc chin lc
trong nc
Thi im
(d kin)
Qu 3/2012
Qu 3/2012 Qu 3/2012
Qu 3/2012
Gi pht hnh
(ng)
10.000 11.250
T s chuyn i
1:10
T s chuyn i
1:10
Gi iu chnh
(ng)
14.706
Khng iu chnh
theo gi th trng
c tnh gi pha long
(ng)
14.075

T l pha long -2% -4%

S CP sau khi pht hnh
(triu)
1.063 1.300

Vn iu l sau khi pht hnh
(t ng)
10.625 13.000

Ngun: MBB, VCSC
Hiu ng pha long khng ng k ln ROAE, EPS v BVPS. Nu tt c 300 triu c
phiu mi c pht hnh thnh cng, chng ti d bo ROAE s gim xung 20,7% t
mc 23% nm 2011. Tuy nhin, chng ti cho rng ROAE ti mc ny vn chp nhn c.
Chng ti d bo tng trng EPS d phng 2012 gim 7,4% sau khi pht hnh da trn d
bo tng trng li nhun rng sau thu 26%. P/E d phng 2012 sau khi pht hnh s tng
t 5,2x ln 5,6x.
P/B d phng nm 2012 s tng t 1,1x ln 1,2 x. Sau khi tnh c ri ro pha long, chng ti
cho rng c phiu MBB tng i r so vi c phiu cc ngn hng khc.
Hnh 9: Tng quan hiu ng pha long
ROAE FY12E P/E FY12E P/B
Trc pha long 23,0% 5,2x 1,1x
Sau pha long 20,7% 5,6x 1,2x
Ngun: VCSC c tnh
Chng ti c tnh gi c phiu s b pha long khong 2% sau khi pht hnh c phiu cho
cc c ng hin ti mc gi 10.000 ng/c phiu v pha long thm 4% na sau khi
pht hnh cho i tc chin lc (khng c iu chnh chnh thc ln gi th trng). Trong
khi mt s nh u t t ra lo ngi v mc chit khu dnh cho mt i tc trong nc,
chng ti cho rng vic pha long khng ng k v s b loi tr bi nhng li ch khng th
nh lng c m mt i tc chin lc mang li v qun l cng nh h tr v k thut
v iu hnh (c th l vic phi hp vi Viettel).
nh hng tiu cc bi hot ng ca TLS.
nh hng tiu cc ca TLS ln hot ng ca MBB nm 2011. TLS, mt cng ty con
ca MBB vi t l s hu l 61,85%, l 592 t ng nm 2011. iu ny tc ng tiu
cc ng k ln li nhun hp nht ca MBB. Khon l ch yu l t vic d phng 235 t
ng v l t giao dch chng khon 476 t ng.





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Do th trng chng khon c nhng tn hiu tch cc vo qu 1/2012, chng ti c tnh
danh mc chng khon nim yt ca TLS t u nm n nay ci thin khong 43%, dn
ti hon nhp d phng 90 t ng. Chng ti khng th a ra c tnh v danh mc cc
c phiu cha nim yt v chng ch qu ca TLS v khng c thng tin. Tuy nhin, chng
ti vn cho rng kh c kh nng d phng ri ro cao tng t nh nm 2011.
Lo ngi v cc khon vay ca TLS cho khch hng. TLS ct gim mnh cho vay khch
hng t 3.515 t ng nm 2010 xung 937 t ng nm 2011 do ti cu trc trit v thay
i v ban lnh o vi quyn CEO mi do MBB b nhim. Trong s 937 t ng hin hnh,
c khong 20% tng ng 192 t ng c xp vo n qu hn t 181 n 210 ngy
vi kh nng gi tr trng b gim i. Cc khon vay qu hn ny c d phng theo
Thng t 228/2009/TT-BTC mc 30% v hp nht vo tng d phng ca MBB. Do th
trng chng khon trong nc tip tc ci thin, TLS c th tin hnh thanh l cc c phiu
ny b li cc khon vay qu hn.
TLS vn cn ri ro nhng trong tm kim sot. TLS vn l ri ro chnh ca MBB nm
2012, nhng chng ti tin rng nhn chung ri ro ny gi y phn no c kim sot.
nh hng t hot ng thua l ca TLS ln MBB s khng trm trng nh nm 2011, gi
nh rng th trng chm y nm 2011. Sang nm 2012, chng ti d bo TLS s thn
trng hn di s kim sot cht ch ca MBB, vi cho vay khch hng thp i v qun l
ri ro hiu qu hn.
Ngoi ra, HC ca MBB t chc vo thng t thng qua vic i tn Cng ty C phn
Chng khon Thng Long thnh Cng ty C phn Chng khon Qun i xc nhn cam
kt h tr ca MBB i vi TLS v gip cng ty ly li v tr mt trong 3 cng ty chng khon
ln nht Vit Nam. TLS t mc tiu li nhun 10,5 t ng cho nm 2012.

Phn tch CAMEL
T l an ton vn ti thiu
T trc n nay MBB lun duy tr t l an ton vn ti thiu cao hn mc yu cu ti thiu
9% ca NHNN. T l ny gim t mc 12,4% nm 2008 xung 9,6% nm 2011. Xu
hng gim ny l do tng trng li nhun khng tng ng vi tng trng tng ti sn.
Vic pht hnh c phiu thnh cng vi t l 73:16 v pht hnh ring l 1.000 t ng c
phiu cho Viettel trong qu 1/2012 tng t l an ton vn ti thiu ln mc hin ti 11%.
Hnh 10: T l an ton vn cao hn mc ti thiu 9%
Ngun: cc ngn hng, VCSC
12%
12%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009 2010 2011
MBB EIB CTG VCB STB ACB





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All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO

Cht lng ti sn
Cc lnh vc quan trng nht i vi tng trng kinh t chim phn ln danh mc
cho vay. Danh mc cho vay ca MBB ch yu lin quan n cc lnh vc nh (1) sn xut,
(2) hng tiu dng, (3) c nhn, v (4) giao thng vn ti. Cc lnh vc ny chim 65,5% s
n ca MBB v l cc lnh vc chnh gip tng trng kinh t i vi mt th trng mi ni
nh Vit Nam.
t ph thuc hn vo cc doanh nghip nh nc. D MBB hng li t t l tin gi
khng k hn kh cao nh quan h tt vi cc khch hng l doanh nghip, vn l li th
ca cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc, ngn hng t ph thuc vo cc doanh nghip nh
nc so vi cc ngn hng thng mi nh nc khc. N xu t cc doanh nghip Nh
nc ang chnh l gnh nng cho cc NH thng mi nh nc. MBB cho vay 62% i vi
doanh nghip va v nh, cao hn mc 53,5% ca nm 2008. Vic ch trng vo cc doanh
nghip nh v va mang li li sut cao hn v t ri ro hn so vi ch trng vo cc doanh
nghip nh nc.
im yu ca MBB l ngn hng bn l. Cho vay c nhn lun mc thp, trung bnh l
15% tng cho vay t 2008 n 2011. Chng ti hy vng MBB ci thin hot ng v h thng
ngn hng bn l v tng cng cho vay c nhn vi s h tr ca Viettel.
Hnh 11a: Thnh phn cho vay theo ngnh Hnh 11b: Ch yu cho vay doanh nghip SME

Ngun: MBB, VCSC
N xu tng nhng vn trong tm kim sot. MBB phn loi n bng cc tiu chun nh
tnh ln nh lng. Nm 2008, MBB l ngn hng thng mi nh nc u tin c
NHNN cho php p dng h thng phn loi tn dng ni b v theo iu 7, Quyt nh
No.493/2005/Q-NHNN (iu 7 gip cc ngn hng phn loi n chnh xc hn da trn
cc tiu chun nh lng v nh tnh, gn vi tiu chun quc t). Nu loi tr cc khon
n ca TLS, t l n xu ca ngn hng lun c duy tr di mc 2% t nm 2008 n
2011, v t 1,6% nm 2011. Do n xu ngy cng tng, MBB s vn phi phn no xa cc
khon n xu nh ngn hng lm trong nhng nm gn y.
Qu 1/2012, cc khon n xu tng t 1,6% ln 1,9% theo xu hng chung ca h thng
ngn hng. Cc khon n nhm 2 hu nh khng tng.


21% 22%
18%
20%
21%
25%
15% 11% 10%
16%
16%
14%
7%
8%
9%
18%
14% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY09 FY10 FY11
Ngnh khc
Xy dng
in/ nc
Bn l
Kho bi
Sn xut
Hng tiu dng
19%
23% 24%
65%
61%
62%
16% 16%
14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY09 FY10 FY11
C nhn
DN Va v nh
DN Nh nc





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO

Hnh 12a: N xu (NPL) Hnh 12b: T l qu d phng/ n xu
Ngun: ngn hng, VCSC
Gi tr ti sn th chp tng i cao. Nm 2011, gi tr ti sn th chp ca MBB gp i
danh mc cho vay, trong 48% l bt ng sn. Chng ti cho rng MBB kh thn trng
trng vic trch lp d phng c th cho d gi tr ti sn th chp tng i cao.

Hnh 13a: Gi tr th chp so vi s n ti MBB Hnh 13b: D phng c th theo quy nh/ thc t vi
gi nh t l n-gi tr l 50% (n v: t ng)
Ngun: MBB, VCSC
Tuy nhin, chng ti quan ngi hn i vi cc khon cho vay khch hng ca TLS, trong
ch c d phng 6,1%. Nm 2011, vi chng trnh ti cu trc v ban lnh o mi, TLS
thi hnh sch lc trit nhm gim lng cho vay khch hng t 3.515 t ng nm
2010 xung 937 t ng nm 2011. duy tr kh nng cnh tranh, TLS cn tip tc cho vay
khch hng nh vi cc tiu ch cht ch hn v qun l ri ro tt hn.
Cht lng i ng lnh o v nhn vin
Ban lnh o giu kinh nghim, i ng nhn vin tr, c hc vn cao. Ban iu hnh
MBB gm cc nh qun l giu kinh nghim v trnh chuyn mn cao, trc y tng l
thnh vin B Quc phng hoc lm vic ti MBB t lu. Mt s mi gia nhp MBB vi t
cch ph gim c u c nhiu kinh nghim trong ngnh ngn hng v lm vic cho cc
ngn hng ln. Hn mt na i ng lnh o ca ngn hng ang trong tui 40 hoc tr
hn, v 77% i ng nhn vin c bng thc s.
1.6%
1.3%
1.6%
1.9%
2009 2010 2011 1Q2012
STB ACB CTG MBB EIB VCB
96%
118%
110%
115%
2009 2010 2011 1Q2012
EIB CTG ACB VCB MBB STB
178%
141%
186%
211%
70%
64%
78%
87%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Gi tr
th chp/
tng d
n
Gi tr
th chp
theo
trng s/
tng d
n
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
D
phng c
th theo
yu cu
D
phng c
th thc
t





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All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Li nhun
MBB t tng trng li nhun rng n tng vi tng trng trung bnh nm 33% t 2008
n 2011 d ngn hng khng t ch tiu 2011 do khon l ln 592 t ng ca TLS. Thu
nhp rng t li t mc tng trng trung bnh nm l 38,5%, nh tn dng tng trng
trung bnh mi nm 41% v lng tin gi di do ca khch hng. Thu nhp t ph dch v
cng tng trng mnh vi tng trng trung bnh t 35,4% trong lnh vc bo lnh.
Hot ng ngoi hi ca MBB khng c n nh lm. Nh chng ti c bit, MBB
thc hin cc hp ng swap vay VND ly USD t khch hng. MBB dng ngun tin VND
ny gi ti cc t chc tn dng khc hng thu nhp rng t li, qua b li phn l
thng qua giao dch ngoi hi.
MBB c xem l mt trong nhng ngn hng hiu qu nht v ROAA v ROAE, ln lt
t 23% v 1,7% nm 2011.
Thanh khon
MBB vn cha gp phi vn no v thanh khon d h thng ngn hng c mt s trc
trc. Tin gi huy ng ti MBB n nh khin ngn hng t chu ph thuc hn vo ngun
vn thng qua th trng lin ngn hng. T l d n cho vay so vi tng tin gi ca MBB
vo khong 70%, thp hn mc trung bnh ca cc ngn hng c nim yt khc l 100%.

Trin vng li nhun
Tng trng tn dng 17% trong nm 2012, 19-20% t 2013 n 2016. Nm 2012 s
khng phi l mt nm thun li i vi hot ng tn dng do cc lo ngi v n xu v nhu
cu vn thp i. Chng ti tin rng MBB c th t c mc tng trng tn dng ti a
17% dnh cho cc ngn hng loi 1. Khi kinh t trong nc phc hi v li sut cho vay gim
xung, chng ti tin rng MBB s c th t tng trng tn dng hng nm cao hn na,
vo khong 19-20%.
Tin gi huy ng tng 21%. Do MBB lun c lng tin gi khch hng ln, chng ti cho
rng ngn hng c th duy tr im mnh ny trong vic thu ht tin gi huy ng vi 21%
cng trong giai on ny, c bit l khi ngn hng tip tc k hoch m rng h thng chi
nhnh.
Hnh 14: Tng quan tng trng trn cc lnh vc chnh v d bo
FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Tng trng ti sn 59% 27% 23% 23% 23%
Tng trng cho vay 67% 28% 17% 19% 19%
Tng trng huy ng 64% 36% 21% 21% 21%
Ngun: VCSC
NIM trung bnh khong 4-4,2%. Ngoi tr NIM 2011 cao mt cch bt thng, chng ti
c tnh NIM nm trong khong 4,0%-4,2% trong giai on d bo. Chng ti tin l MBB s
khng gp kh khn trong vic duy tr cc ch s trn nh quan h vi cc doanh nghip
mang li ngun vn chi ph thp.








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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Hnh 15: T sut sinh li
FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Chi ph vn trung bnh 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 6.8% 6.2%
Sut sinh li trung bnh 10.8% 12.3% 11.2% 10.5% 10.0%
Chnh lch li sut cho vay huy ng 4.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
T l li bin rng 4.3% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2%
Ngun: VCSC
Thu nhp t ph tng trng 13% hng nm. Do th mnh ca MBB trong cc hot ng
bo lnh, ch yu l bo lnh L/C (gi tr ln hn c cc khon vay ca MBB), chng ti cho
rng doanh thu t ph tip tc tng trng ti mc 13%.
Kh nng hon nhp d phng nh th trng din bin tt hn. MBB l 769 t ng
u t nm 2011 do th trng chng khon i xung, ko theo khon d phng ln trong
danh mc u t ti sn ca cng ty con TLS. Vi d bo th trng chng khon c th s
dn hi phc v TLS tip tc gii quyt cc kh khn, chng ti cho rng c kh nng hon
nhp d phng t TLS trong nm 2012.
Hnh 16: Cc t l tng trng
FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Tng trng thu nhp t li 91% 48% 11% 23% 25%
Tng trng thu nhp t ph dch v 55% 9% 13% 13% 13%
Tng trng li nhun trc d phng 52% 15% 29% 21% 24%
Tng trng li nhun rng 56% 24% 26% 25% 25%
Ngun: VCSC
CIR tng ln 37% nhng vn trong tm kim sot. MBB chng t c hiu qu hot
ng ca mnh vi CIR thp hn ton ngnh, dao ng trong khong 34% ti 36,5% t 2008
ti 2011. Chng ti cho rng t l ny s tng ln 37% cng vi vic tip tc m rng h
thng chi nhnh.
Kh trnh khi n xu tng cao, c tnh 1,9% trong nm 2012. Do nn kinh t vn ang
phc hi v cc cng ty vn i mt vi cc kh khn do lng cu thp, n xu t hn s
tng ln. MBB vn kh cht ch trong vic phn loi n, c v tiu chun nh lng cng
nh nh tnh, chng ti d bo n xu vo khong 1,9% trong nm 2012. Chng ti cho
rng TLS s thn trng hn trong vic qun l ri ro v s khng gy nh hng bt li hn
na ln n xu ca MBB.
Hnh 17: Gi tr ti sn
FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
T l n xu (tnh ring NH) 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
D phng/ n xu (tnh ring NH) 118% 110% 116% 118% 120%
Ngun: VCSC












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All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
nh gi
Chng ti nh gi MBB vi t trng ngang nhau cho 2 phng php thu nhp thng d v so
snh gi tr s sch/ c phiu

Hnh 18: Gi tr c phiu theo 2 phng php
Phng php nh gi
Gi mc tiu
(ng) Trng s Gi tr (ng)
Gi tr s sch 16.950 50% 8.475
Thu nhp thng d 17.564 50% 8.782
Gi tr trung bnh 100% 17.257

M hnh thu nhp thng d
M hnh thu nhp thng d c da trn d d phng li nhun 5 nm, tip theo l giai
on tng trng vnh vin. Thu nhp thng d cho mi nm c tnh da trn cng thc
li nhun tr i chi ph vn, chit khu v hin ti.
Hnh 19: Thu nhp thng d
FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Cui k
Tri phiu CP 10 nm 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.0%
Beta 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Phn b ri ro 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Chi ph vn 20.6% 19.3% 18.0% 16.7% 15.4% 14.4%
Gi tr s sch u k (t
ng) 9,643 16,319 20,265 23,750 27,808
ROAE 27.8% 20.5% 20.6% 21.3% 22.2%
Chi ph vn 20.6% 19.3% 18.0% 16.7% 15.4%
Thu nhp thun (t ng) 2,685 3,346 4,184 5,056 6,174
Thu nhp thng d (t ng) 699 197 536 1,090 1,891 21,125
T l chit khu 1.21 1.44 1.70 1.98 2.29 1.96
Gi tr s sch u k (t
ng) 9,643
Gi tr hin ti ca thu nhp
thng d (t ng) 2,409
Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin
cui k (t ng) 10,781
Tng gi tr (t ng) 22,833
S lng CP (triu) 1,300
Gi mc tiu 12 thng (ng) 17,564

M hnh so snh gi tr s sch
MBB lun giao dch ti mc chit khu P/B 33% so vi mc trung bnh ca cc ngn hng
khc. Mc chit khu ny c th c gii thch bi lo ngi v tnh hnh hot ng ca TLS
v vic cha tm c i tc chin lc. Tuy nhin, chng ti cho rng mc chit khu ny
l cha hp l nu xt n kh nng tng trng tn dng v huy ng, NIM n nh mc
cao, thanh khon tt v tim nng tng trng thu nhp ngoi li.
MBB hin ang giao dch ti ngng P/B d phng 2012 1,2x so vi mc 1,7x ca cc ngn
hng khc v P/E d phng 2012 5,6x so vi mc 9,3x ca cc ngn hng khc. i vi cc
ngn hng nim yt m chng ti vn cha xy dng m hnh nh gi, chng ti da
theo mc tiu t ra t u nm ca ngn hng. Chng ti p dng mc chit khu 20% so





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All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
vi trung bnh cc ngn hng nim yt khc vi mc gi mc tiu 17.300 ng/c phiu, vi
P/B mc tiu tng ng l 1,4x v P/E mc tiu tng ng l 6,6x.
Hnh 20: MBB lun giao dch ti mc chit khu ln hn cc ngn hng khc

Ngun: Bloomberg

Hnh 21: nh gi da trn phng php so snh
Tn
Gi hin
ti
(VND)
FY12
BVPS
(ng)
FY12
P/B (x)
FY12
EPS
(ng)
FY12
P/E
(x)
FY11
ROAE
(%)
FY11
ROAA
(%)
Tng ti
sn (t
ng)
VCB 32.800 18.838 1,7 2.461 13,3 16,9 1,3 366.749
STB 25.000 12.044 2,1 2.025 12,3 14,5 1,4 141.532
CTG 22.000 13.317 1,7 2.909 7,6 26,8 2,0 460.604
EIB 18.100 13.069 1,4 2.660 6,8 20,4 1,9 183.582
ACB 25.900 16.338 1,6 3.891 6,7 25,5 1,3 281.032
Trung
bnh 1,7 9,3
MBB 15.000 12.553 1,2 2.665 5,6 23,0 1,7 138.482
Ngun: VCSC

S lc v cng ty
Ngn hng Thng mi C phn Qun i (MBB) c thnh lp nm 1994 v hin nay l
ngn hng TMCP ln th t v ngn hng ln th tm trong h thng ngn hng Vit Nam
vi tng ti sn tr gi 141.688 t ng (6,8 t USD). Cui nm 2011, MBB s hu 166 chi
nhnh v phng giao dch, ch yu tp trung min Bc, d kin s m thm 74 a im
na trong nm 2012 tp trung min Trung v min Nam. MBB c 4.439 nhn vin, trong
77% c bng thc s. Viettel l c ng ln nht, nm gi 19% c phn. Cc c ng ln
khc bao gm Vietcombank (11%) v Maritime Bank (8%).






0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
P/B (MBB) Average





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Hnh 22a: Tng ti sn ca cc ngn hng c nim
yt (1Q2012) (n v: t ng)
Hnh 22b: Vn iu l ca cc ngn hng c nim
yt (1Q2012) (n v: t ng)
Ngun: Banks, VCSC
MBB hin c 5 cng ty con: CTCP Chng khon Thng Long, CTCP Qun l Qu u t MB,
CTCP Vit R.E.M.A.X, CTCP a c MB, Cng ty Qun l n v Khai thc ti sn Ngn hng
TMCP Qun i; v ba cng ty lin kt CTCP Viet-Asset, CTCP Long Thun Lc, CTCP Bo
him Qun i (MIC).
Cng ty con Tn Lnh vc T l c phn ca MBB
1. CTQL n v Khai thc TS Qun l ti sn 100%
2. CTCP CK Thng Long Chng khon v u t 61,85%
3. CTCP Qun l Qu u t MB Qun l qu 61,78%
4. CTCP a c MB BS 65,88%
5. CTCP Vit R.E.M.A.X Xy dng 78,09%
Lin kt Tn Lnh vc T l c phn ca MBB
1. CTCP Viet-Asset Xy dng 45%
2. CTCP Long Thun Lc Xy dng 29,65%
3. CTCP Bo him Qun i Bo him 20%


406,113
358,618
265,556
171,030
141,688 140,850
CTG VCB ACB EIB MBB STB
23,174
20,230
12,355
10,740
10,000
9,376
VCB CTG EIB STB MBB ACB





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Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO

Kt qu kinh doanh FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E B n cn i k t on FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Thu nh p li 8,766 13,821 15,735 18,266 Tin mt 869 917 1,128 1,536
Chi ph li -5,247 -8,598 -9,936 -11,159 Tin gi ti NHNN 746 6,029 7,416 9,121
Thu nhp li thun 3,519 5,223 5,798 7,107 Cho vay cc TCTD khc 33,652 41,667 51,527 63,165
Thu nh p t d ch v 736 1,191 1,370 1,575 Chng khon KD 1,691 826 955 1,015
Chi ph t d ch v -147 -548 -641 -750 Ch ng khon KD 1,822 1,194 1,194 1,194
Li thun dch v 589 643 728 825 D phng gim gi -131 -368 -239 -179
Li kinh doanh ngoi hi 1 -85 0 0 Cng c phi sinh 0 0 0 0
Li CK kinh doanh -236 -769 129 60 Cho vay KH 48,058 57,952 67,570 80,372
Li CK u t 0 0 -49 19 Cho vay KH 48,797 59,045 69,083 82,208
Li t H khc 124 57 60 63 D phng ri ro -738 -1,093 -1,513 -1,836
Thu nhp t gp vn 91 79 0 0 Chng khon u t 15,564 19,412 27,501 37,124
Chi ph hot ng -1,254 -1,881 -2,467 -2,987 S n sng bn 5,480 14,585 21,189 29,153
Li nhun trc d phng 2,835 3,267 4,200 5,086 Gi n ngy o hn 10,084 4,827 6,312 7,970
Chi ph d phng -546 -641 -620 -625 D phng gim gi 10,159 5,004 6,505 8,132
Li nhun trc thu 2,288 2,626 3,580 4,462 Gp vn, u t di hn 1,577 1,782 2,160 2,593
Thu -543 -709 -895 -1,115 V n gp lin doanh 0 0 0 0
Li nhun sau thu 1,746 1,917 2,685 3,346 u t Cty lin kt 50 155 186 223
C ng thiu s -33 211 0 0 u t di hn khc 1,611 1,732 2,078 2,494
Li nhun ch s hu 1,713 2,128 2,685 3,346 D phng gim gi -84 -105 -104 -125
Ti sn c nh 1,221 1,551 1,809 1,957
nh gi FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E TS c nh h u hnh 262 471 675 763
Thu nhp/ c phiu (VND) 2,718 2,915 2,665 2,308 TS c nh cho thu TC 0 0 0 0
Gi tr s sch (VND) 12,168 13,210 12,553 12,666 TS c nh v hnh 959 1,080 1,134 1,194
P/E (x) 5.5 5.1 5.6 6.5 BDS u t 131 147 181 222
P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 Ti sn khc 6,113 8,548 10,514 12,932
T NG TI SN 109,622 138,831 170,762 210,037
Kh nng sinh l i FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Li bin rng 4.3% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% N phi tr 99,881 128,533 153,761 189,083
Sut sinh li/ ti sn 10.8% 12.3% 11.2% 10.5% N CP v NHNN 8,769 0 2,278 2,665
Chi ph vn 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 6.8% Tin gi & vay TCTD khc 16,916 26,673 28,540 37,194
T l chi ph/ thu nhp 30.7% 36.5% 37.0% 37.0% Tin gi KH 65,741 89,548 108,353 131,107
ROAE 21.7% 23.0% 20.7% 18.3% Cng c phi sinh 0 23 0 0
ROAA 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% Ngun vn khc 117 201 247 304
ROAA trc d phng 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% Giy t c gi 5,411 4,531 8,531 10,664
Cc khon n khc 2,928 7,557 5,811 7,148
T ng t r ng Vn CSH 8,883 9,643 16,319 20,265
Tng trng ti sn 67.3% 28.3% 17.0% 19.0% V n c a TCTD 7,554 7,548 13,488 16,488
Tng trng huy ng 64.4% 36.2% 21.0% 21.0% Qu c a TCTD 547 845 1,248 1,750
Chnh lch t gi 0 0 0 0
Cht l ng t i sn FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Chnh lch nh g TS 0 0 0 0
T l n xu (NPL) 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% L i nhu n gi l i 781 1,250 1,583 2,027
D phng/ NPL 117.5% 110.2% 116.1% 118.3% Li ch c ng thiu s 859 655 655 655
D phng/ cho vay 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% N P H I TR & V N 109,622 138,831 170,762 210,037
Chi ph d phng/ cho vay 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%
NPL/ vn CSH 6.9% 9.7% 8.0% 7.7% C c u t i n gi
Tin gi khng k hn 31% 27% 27% 27%
Thanh kho n FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Tin gi k hn 61% 55% 55% 55%
Cho vay/ huy ng t KH 74% 66% 64% 63% Tin gi khc 9% 18% 18% 18%
Vay lin NH 35% 34% 35% 35%
CAR 12% 10% 14% 14% C c u d n
Vn CSH/ ti sn 8% 7% 10% 10% DN Nh nc 23% 24% 24% 24%
DN Va v nh 61% 62% 62% 62%
C nhn 16% 14% 14% 14%
Bo co ti chnh
n v: t ng





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All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Xc nhn ca chuyn vin phn tch
Ti, Dng Phm, xc nhn rng nhng quan im c trnh by trong bo co ny phn nh ng quan im c
nhn ca chng ti v cng ty ny. Chng ti cng xc nhn rng khng c phn th lao no ca chng ti ,
ang, hoc s trc tip hay gin tip c lin quan n cc khuyn ngh hay quan im th hin trong bo co ny.
Cc chuyn vin phn tch nghin cu ph trch cc bo co ny nhn c th lao da trn nhiu yu t khc
nhau, bao gm cht lng, tnh chnh xc ca nghin cu, v doanh thu ca cng ty, trong bao gm doanh thu t
cc n v kinh doanh khc nh b phn Mi gii t chc, hoc T vn doanh nghip .

Phng php nh gi v H thng khuyn ngh ca VCSC
Ni dung chnh trong h thng khuyn ngh: Khuyn ngh c a ra da trn mc tng/gim tuyt i ca gi
c phiu t n gi mc tiu, c xc nh bng cng thc (gi mc tiu - gi hin ti)/gi hin ti v khng
lin quan n hot ng th trng. Cng thc ny c p dng t ngy 1/11/2010.

Cc khuyn ngh nh ngha
MUA Nu gi mc tiu cao hn gi th trng 20%
THM VO Nu gi mc tiu cao hn gi th trng 10%-20%
NM GI Nu gi mc tiu cao hoc thp hn gi th trng 10%
GIM Nu gi mc tiu thp hn gi th trng 10%-20%
BN Nu gi mc tiu thp hn gi th trng 20%
KHNG KHUYN NGH B phn nghin cu ang hoc c th s nghin cu c phiu ny nhng khng
a ra khuyn ngh hay gi mc tiu v l do ch quan hoc ch tun th cc
quy nh ca lut v/hoc chnh sch cng ty trong trng hp nht nh, v d
nh khi VCSC ang thc hin dch v t vn M&A hay t vn chin lc no
lin quan n cng ty .
KHUYN NGH TM
HON
Khuyn ngh u t v gi mc tiu cho c phiu ny b hon li v cha c
thng tin c s xc nh khuyn ngh u t hoc gi mc tiu. Khuyn ngh
u t hoc gi mc tiu trc , nu c, khng cn hiu lc i vi c phiu
ny.

Tr khi c khuyn co khc, nhng khuyn ngh u t ch c gi tr trong vng 12 thng. Nhng bin ng gi trong
tng lai c th lm cho cc khuyn ngh tm thi khng khp vi mc chnh lch gia gi th trng ca c phiu
v gi mc tiu nn vic vic din gii cc khuyn ngh u t cn c thc hin mt cch linh hot.

Gi mc tiu: Trong hu ht trng hp, gi mc tiu s tng ng vi nh gi ca chuyn vin phn tch v gi
tr hp l hin ti ca c phiu. Gi mc tiu l mc gi c phiu nn c giao dch hin ti nu th trng ng
quan im ca chuyn vin phn tch v c nhng yu t xc tc cn thit to ra s thay i nhn thc trong thi
hn nht nh. Tuy nhin, nu chuyn vin phn tin rng trong thi hn xc nh s khng c tin tc, s kin hoc
yu t thc y cn thit c phiu c th t n gi tr hp l th gi mc tiu c th khc vi gi tr hp l. V
th, trong hu ht trng hp, khuyn ngh ca chng ti ch l nh gi s cha ph hp gia gi th trng hin
ti v gi tr hp l hin ti ca c phiu theo quan im ca chng ti.

Phng php nh gi: xc nh gi mc tiu, chuyn vin phn tch c th s dng nhiu phng php nh
gi khc nhau, bao gm nhng khng gii hn, phng php chit khu dng tin t do v nh gi so snh. Vic
la chn phng php ty thuc vo tng ngnh, cng ty, tnh cht c phiu v nhiu yu t khc. Kt qu nh gi
c th da trn mt hoc kt hp nhiu phng php sau: 1) nh gi da trn nhiu ch s (P/E, P/CF, EV/doanh
thu, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), so snh nhm cng ty v da vo s liu qu kh, 2) M hnh chit khu
(DCF, DVMA, DDM); 3) Phng php tnh tng gi tr cc thnh phn hoc cc phng php nh gi da vo
ti sn; v 4) Phng php nh gi s dng li nhun kinh t (Li nhun thng d, EVA). Cc m hnh nh gi
ny ph thuc vo cc yu t kinh t v m nh tng trng GDP, li sut, t gi, nguyn liu vi cc gi nh khc
v nn kinh t cng nh nhng ri ro vn c trong cng ty ang xem xt. Ngoi ra, tm l th trng cng c th nh
hng n vic nh gi cng ty. Qu trnh nh gi cn cn c vo nhng k vng c th thay i nhanh chng m
khng cn thng bo, ty vo s pht trin ring ca tng ngnh.

Ri ro: Tnh hnh hot ng trong qu kh khng nht thit s din ra tng t cho cc kt qu trong tng lai. T
gi ngoi t c th nh hng bt li n gi tr, gi hoc li nhun ca bt k chng khon hay cng c ti chnh
no c lin quan c ni n trong bo co ny. c t vn u t, thc hin giao dch hoc cc yu cu
khc, khch hng nn lin h vi n v i din kinh doanh ca khu vc c gii p.






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See important disclosure at the end of this document
All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO
Lin h
Tr s chnh
67 Hm Nghi, Qun 1, Tp. HCM, Vit Nam
+84 8 3914 3588

Phng giao dch
136 Hm Nghi, Qun 1, Tp. HCM
+84 8 3914 3588
Chi nhnh H Ni
109 Trn Hng o, Qun Hon Kim, H Ni
+84 4 6262 6999

Phng giao dch
236 - 238 Nguyn Cng Tr, Qun 1, Tp. HCM
+84 8 3914 3588

Phng Nghin Cu v Phn Tch

Quyn Gim c
V Thanh T, ext 105
tu.vu@vcsc.com.vn

CV cao cp, inh Th Nh Hoa, ext 140
CV cao cp, Tn Minh Phng, ext 146
CV cap cp, Hong Hng Giang, ext 142
Chuyn vin, V Th Tr L, ext 147
Phng Nghin Cu v Phn Tch
+84 8 3914 3588
research@vcsc.com.vn

Chuyn vin, V Hong Vit, ext 143
Chuyn vin, Nguyn Duy Phong, ext 120
Chuyn vin, Phm Thy Dng, ext 130
Chuyn vin, Nguyn An Thin Trang, ext 116

Phng Giao dch chng khon khch hng t chc
& c nhn nc ngoi

T chc nc ngoi
Michel Tosto, M.Sc.
+84 8 3914 3588, ext 102
michel.tosto@vcsc.com.vn


T chc trong nc
Nguyn Quc Dng
+84 8 3914 3588, ext 136
dung.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn

Khch hng Nht
Trn Minh Hu
+84 8 3914 3588, ext 122
hue.tran@vcsc.com.vn


Phng mi gii khch hng trong nc

Tp. H Ch Minh
Chu Thin Trc Qunh
+84 8 3914 3588, ext 222
quynh.chau@vcsc.com.vn
H Ni
Nguyn Huy Quang
+84 4 6262 6999, ext 312
quang.nguyen @vcsc.com.vn


Khuyn co
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit, Bo co ny c vit da trn
ngun thng tin ng tin cy vo thi im cng b, Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit khng chu trch nhim
v chnh xc ca nhng thng tin ny, Quan im, d bo v nhng c lng trong bo co ny ch th hin
kin ca tc gi ti thi im pht hnh, Nhng quan im ny khng th hin quan im chung ca Cng ty C
phn Chng khon Bn Vit v c th thay i m khng cn thng bo trc, Bo co ny ch nhm mc ch
cung cp thng tin cho cc t chc u t cng nh cc nh u t c nhn ca Cng ty c phn chng khon Bn
Vit v khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn bt k chng khon no c tho lun trong bo co ny,
Quyt nh ca nh u t nn da vo nhng s t vn c lp v thch hp vi tnh hnh ti chnh cng nh mc
tiu u t ring bit, Bo co ny khng c php sao chp, ti to, pht hnh v phn phi vi bt k mc ch
no nu khng c s chp thun bng vn bn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bn Vit, Xin vui lng ghi r
ngun trch dn nu s dng cc thng tin trong bo co ny.






www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC<GO> Viet Capital Securities | 20
See important disclosure at the end of this document
All Report Types
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MBB)
18 March 2011
THM VO

Lch s khuyn ngh

Ngy Khuyn ngh Gi ng ca Gi mc tiu
21/05/2012 MUA 15.000 17.300