BO CO PHN TCH DOANH NGHIP

NGN HNG TMCP QUN I - MB

Ngnh Ngn hng ICB 8355
5 thng 03 nm 2013
Bn Mnh Bn Nm Gi Mua Mua Mnh



MBB C PHIU THCH HP U T TRUNG DI HN

Trin vng ngnh Ngn hng nm 2013 kh m m do p lc n xu
v ti c cu cc ngn hng yu km. Tng trng tn dng d kin
khong 12% trong nm 2013.
MBB c hiu qu hot ng tt so vi h thng. Nm 2012, MBB
vt qua nhiu ngn hng c phn ln v hiu qu hot ng vi t sut
li nhun sau thu trn vn ch s hu t 18%. Li nhun sau thu ca
MBB ch t 2.311 t ng tng 9% so vi nm 2011 trong khi li nhun
trc trch lp d phng t 5.117 t ng tng 57% so vi nm 2011 do
MBB tin hnh trch lp d phng ri ro kh ln trong ch yu l trch
lp d phng ri ro cho vay khch hng.
Khch hng qun i. MBB trc thuc B Quc Phng qun l v khch
hng l cc doanh nghip qun i kh nhiu. BSC cho rng y l li th
ring c ca MBB do nhng khch hng ny thng kinh doanh trong lnh
vc c th, c li th kinh doanh, tnh hnh ti chnh lnh mnh, kinh
doanh hiu qu.
T l n xu ca MBB thp hn so vi ngnh. Nm 2012 mc d n
xu ngnh ngn hng tng kh cao trn 8% nhng MBB vn duy tr n
nh c n xu mc 1.85%. T l n xu ny thp hn so vi cc
Ngn hng ln u ngnh.
C tc cao v n nh. MBB tr c tc bng tin mt kh cao v duy tr
n nh qua cc nm trung bnh khong 20%. Theo chng ti nh gi y
l t l tr c tc cao nht so vi cc ngn hng ang nim yt.
MBB vn cha c c ng chin lc nc ngoi trong khi cc ngn
hng ln khc nh CTG, VCB. Vic c c ng chin lc nc ngoi s
gip MBB c c s h tr v ti chnh, cng ngh, kinh nghim qun tr
iu hnh. Tuy nhin chng ti cho rng hin gi c ng chin lc ca
MBB l Viettel cng l li th ring ca MBB do Viettel l cng ty mnh
trong ngnh vin thng. MBB c kh nng vn tip tc tng vn iu l
trong thi gian ti
Tnh thanh khon ca c phiu MBB kh cao, gi giao dch t bin ng, t
chu nh hng bi din bin th trng.
Chng ti khuyn ngh u t vo c phiu MBB mc gi hp l l
12.500 13.000 ng/cp xt trn quan im u t trung v di hn

TH GIAO DCH

KHUYN NGH U T
Quan im u t Mua Nm gi
Gi k vng 14.000 15.000
Gi th trng (5/3) 13.100
Trin vng 1 thng 13.500
Trin vng 3 thng 14.000
Trin vng 6 thng 14.000-15.000

THNG TIN GIAO DCH
CPLH hin ti (triu cp) 1.062
Tng gi tr vn ha (t) 14.237
Tng gi tr s sch (t) 12.865
S hu nc ngoi (%) 10%
Gi hin ti (/cp) 13.400
KLTB 10 ngy (cp) 1.444.644
Gi thp nht 52T () 11.400
Gi cao nht 52T () 15.400
+/- 7 ngy qua -2.2%
+/- 1 thng qua -3.7%

Chuyn vin phn tch
Phm Th Thu Hng
Email: hangpt@bsc.com.vn
Tel:+ 84. 39352722 (110)

Cc ch tiu tai chnh 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Doanh thu thun (t ) 4,218 4,932 9,713 14,949 16,625
% tng trng y-o-y

17% 97% 54% 11%
Tng ti sn (t ) 44,346 69,008 109,623 138,831 175,612
Vn ch s hu (t ) 4,424 6,888 8,882 9,642 12,865
Vn iu l (t ) 3,400 5,300 7,300 7,300 10,000
CPLH bnh qun (Triu cp)
340 530 730 730 1,000
LN sau thu (t ) 703 1,095 1,712 2,127 2,311
% tng trng y-o-y

56% 56% 24% 9%
EPS cui k (/cp) 3,173 2,951 2,844 2,913 2,311
Gi tr s sch (/cp) 19,960 18,569 14,757 13,208 12,865
P/E 6.57 6.58 6.23 4.67 5.88
P/B 1.05 1.05 1.12 1.03 1.06
Li nhun gp bin 39% 45% 40% 38% 43%
ROS 17% 22% 18% 14% 14%
ROE 16% 16% 19% 22% 18%
ROA 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%

Bo co phn tch Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i - MBB



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TRIN VNG NGNH NGN HNG

Nm 2013 c d bo s vn l nm kh khn ca ngnh Ngn hng: Bc tranh li
nhun ngnh ngn hng nm 2012 nhiu mu xm, hu ht cc ngn hng k c nhng
ngn hng ln u cng b li nhun gim so vi nm 2011 nh ACB, EIB, STB,. Trin
vng ngnh Ngn hng nm 2013 vn cha c g sng sa do p lc n xu v ti c cu
cc ngn hng yu km s vn tip din. Ngoi ra tng trng tn dng kh c th nh trc
trong khi chi ph duy tr hot ng cng kh ct gim hn.
Mt s vn m ngnh Ngn hng i mt trong thi gian ti:
N xu thc t tng cao hn so vi cng b, nhiu Ngn hng yu km ng trc
nguy c mt vn ch v phi ti c cu;
Cc Ngn hng s phi trch lp d phng cao trong nm 2013 vi cc khon n
nhm 3-5 ngy mt tng v khng th giu;
Li sut cho vay c yu cu gim xung, lm gim li nhun bin ca cc NHTM t
hot ng tn dng;
Ngun vn ca cc Ngn hng b hn ch sau Thng t 21 quy nh v tin gi gia
cc TCTD;
Cc sai phm trong hot ng ngn hng tip tc b thanh tra, cng b v x l.
HOT NG SN XUT V KINH DOANH
1. HOT NG TN DNG
Hot ng tn dng l hot ng mang li doanh thu v li nhun chnh cho MBB. Nm
2012 hot ng tn dng em li 57% doanh thu v ng gp 54% li nhun cho MBB.
- Tng trng tn dng n tng: Nm 2012, tng trng tn dng ca MBB l 26% kh cao
so vi mt bng tng trng tn dng 8.91% ca ton ngnh Ngn hng
- Theo i tng khch hng: MBB cho vay ch yu l cc t chc kinh t, chim 86.8%
tng d n trong ch yu l cc doanh nghip ngoi quc doanh trong lnh vc: cng
nghip ch bin (26.75% d n), sn xut v phn hi in, kh t v nc (11.44% d n)
v thng nghip sa cha xe c ng c, m t, xe my, dng c nhn v gia nh
(16.16% d n)
- Theo k hn: MBB tp trung cho vay ngn hn - chim 71% tng d n.
- nh gi cht lng hot ng tn dng: Trong bi cnh n xu ca ton h thng tng
mnh th n xu ca MB cng c din bin tng t. T l n xu ti thi im cui nm
2012 l 1,85%, so vi 1,61% cui nm 2011. Trong nhm n xu th n di tiu chun gim
nh, n c kh nng mt vn tng 23% cn n nghi ng tng gn gp 4 ln. T l trch lp vi
n xu ca MBB l 95% l t l kh tt.
C cu cho vay theo hnh thc C cu cho vay theo k hn C cu cho vay theo ng tin


2. HOT NG HUY NG VN
Tng trng huy ng vn n nh v mc kh cao trung bnh khong 30%.
- Theo i tng khch hng: MBB huy ng vn ca cc TCKT c phn nhnh hn so vi
huy ng t c nhn (chim 65% tng ngun vn huy ng) trong khi cc ngn hng ln nh
VCB, CTG li c ngun huy ng t c nhn kh tt. iu ny mt phn l do h thng chi
87%
13%
Cho vay TCKT Cho vay c nhn
71%
18%
11%
N ngn hn N trung hn N di hn
76%
24%
Cho vay bng VND
Cho vay bng ngoi t

Bo co phn tch Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i - MBB



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nhnh ca MBB vn cha ph rng khp v thng hiu cha bng c cc ngn hng ln.
Mc d vy, chng ti nh gi y li l mt li th ca MBB v huy ng vn t cc TCKT
ln th chi ph vn thp hn.
Theo hnh thc huy ng: Ngun vn huy ng bng VND v ngoi t kh cn bng vi
nhau. Chng ti cho rng y l mt li th ca MBB do li sut huy ng bng ngoi t
thng kh thp so vi li sut VND v MBB c th tn dng ngun huy ng ny trong hot
ng cho vay ngoi t v kinh doanh ngoi hi
3. HOT NG U T
Nhm gim bt ri ro trong hot ng kinh doanh v tp trung vo hot ng kinh doanh
chnh v truyn thng hot ng u t ca MBB ang gim dn c v quy m v t trng
hot ng u t chng khon kinh doanh. Nm 2012, danh mc u t ca MBB chim
25% tng ti sn; quy m u t ca MB tng gp i nhng trong ch yu l chng
khon u t (chim 95% tng danh mc), chng khon kinh doanh ch chim 1% trong khi
nm 2011 t trng ny l 5%
C cu hot ng u t Quy m hot ng u t

Do khng c chi tit cc khon u t nn
vic a ra nhn xt hiu qu u t ca
MBB ch mang tnh cht tng i v cha
phn nh ht c ri ro v hiu qu
ca hot ng u t
Chng khon kinh doanh (C phiu) gim mnh: Nm 2012, chng khon kinh doanh ch
cn 490 t ng gim 59% so vi cui nm 2011. Danh mc chng khon kinh doanh ca
MBB gim kh mnh c phiu cha nim yt (gim 96%) so vi nm 2011 nn tnh thanh
khon ca danh mc u t chng khon c ci thin kh nhiu. Tuy nhin, mc ri ro
ca danh mc l kh ln khi m d phng gim gi chng khon kinh doanh cn kh cao vi
291 t ng tng ng vi 53%.
Chng khon u t (chng khon n c mc an ton cao) tng mnh: Chng khon
u t tng mnh t 19.872 t ng nm 2011 ln 41.904 t ng nm 2012. Trong c
chia lm hai loi l chng khon u t sn sng bn l 37.806 t ng (chim 90% tng
chng khon u t) v chng khon u t gi n ngy o hn. Phn chng khon u
t sn sng bn ch yu bao gm chng khon n do Chnh ph pht hnh, chng khon
n do Chnh ph bo lnh. Khon ny c nh gi l c an ton kh cao. Phn chng
khon u t gi n ngy o hn ch yu l chng khon n do cc TCTD khc pht hnh
v chng khon n do cc TCKT trong nc pht hnh. Khon mc u t ny kh ri ro nn
MBB tin hnh trch lp d phng gim gi 556 t ng.
u t vo cng ty lin kt: Nm 2012, MBB tng t l s hu ti Cng ty CP Bo him
Qun i ln 49.76%. Chng ti nh gi cc khon u t ny t ri ro.
u t gp vn di hn: Danh mc u t di hn ca MBB c tng gi tr n 31/12/2012 l
1.412 t ng trong 41% u t vo t chc kinh t, 37% u t vo cc d n di hn v
15% u t vo qu u t. Do khng c chi tit cc khon u t gp vn di hn nn vic
a ra nhn xt hiu qu u t ca
nh gi ri ro: i vi chng khon u t v chng khon kinh doanh MBB tin hnh
trch lp d phng vi t l nht nh. Tuy nhin i vi khon u t gp vn di hn MBB
cha trch lp d phng nn cha phn nh c ht ri ro tim n i vi hot ng u t
ny
TI CHNH DOANH NGHIP

MBB vn duy tr kh tt tc tng trng mc d c gim so vi nhng nm trc nhng
vn mc cao trong ngnh. Tng trng tn dng v tng trng huy ng t 26%. Tng
trng li nhun trc trch lp d phng t 57% - mt con s kh n tng nhng tng
trng li nhun sau thu ch t 9% do MBB tin hnh trch lp d phng ri ro kh nhiu
nn lm gim li nhun sau thu.
MBB c mc sinh li n tng trong nm 2012 vt qua rt nhiu cc ngn hng ln nh:
1%
95%
4%
CK Kinh doanh
CK u t
Gp vn u t di hn
10,237
11,536
19,184
22,953
44,090
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bo co phn tch Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i - MBB



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ACB, VCB, STB, EIB. Mc d MBB cha phi l ngn hng c vn ch s hu v tng ti
sn ln nht nhng mc sinh li ca MBB thi gian qua l kh cao v nm 2012, mt nm
kh khn ca ngnh ngn hng nhng MBB vn duy tr c mc sinh li cao vi ROE
18%, ROA 1.3%
T l cho vay/tin gi ca MBB kh thp so vi trung bnh ngnh v c xu hng gim cho
thy MBB kh thn trng trong hot ng cho vay
T l n xu ca MBB c kim sot kh tt c xu hng tng nh trong thi gian qua.
Nhng y cng l thc trng chung ca ngnh ngn hng do nn kinh t kh khn. c
bit t l n xu ca cc ngn hng c s tng t bin trong nm 2012
Nm 2012 Chi ph vn bnh qun ca MBB l 5.8% kh thp so vi trung bnh ngnh

MBB STB ACB CTG
Cc ch tiu tai chnh 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Kh nng sinh li
ROA 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2%
ROE 19% 22% 18% 13% 14% 5.3% 20.5% 26.8% 7.3% 18.7%
21.9
% 18.3%
ROS 17.6% 14.2% 13.9% 139% 10.5% 3.9% 14.3% 12.0% 4.3% 9.7%
10.5
% 11.4%
CP vn bnh qun 5.9% 7.1% 5.8% 6.1% 10.7% 8.3% 5.9% 8.0% 9.7% 5.8% 8.8% 7.2%
Chnh lch LS rng 13% 17% 14% 14% 24% 20% 14% 19% 23% 15% 21% 17%
NIM 3.3% 3.8% 3.8% 2.8% 4.6% 4.8% 2.4% 3.0% 4.1% 3.4% 4.4% 3.7%
Thu nhp li rng/DT 40% 38% 43% 29% 30% 36% 25% 25% 32% 34% 34% 34%
Cht lng ti sn
T l n xu/ D n 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5%
D phng/Tng n xu 120% 117% 95% 185% 175% 73% 245% 102% 57% 180% 138% 75%
DT/ Tng ti sn 8.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.8% 13.9% 12% 8.0% 9.5% 12.1% 9.6%
12.9
% 10.8%
Ti sn sinh li/ Tng TS 94% 96% 99% 90% 89% 90% 86% 78% 95% 96% 98% 98%
Tc tng trng
Tng trng TN thun t li 91% 48% 26% 69% 50% 11% 49% 59% 4% 52% 66% -8%
Tng trng TN thun t ph dch v 55% 9% 14% 10% -9% -39% -5% 0% -15% 121% -20% 4%
Tng trng chi ph hot ng 60% 50% 43% 33% 65% 14% 19% 46% 35% 33% 26% 4%
Tng trng LN trc d phng 52% 15% 57% 17% 10% -15% 7% 35% -62% 79% 74% -6%
Tng trng d n 65% 21% 26% 38% -2% 20% 40% 18% 0% 44% 25% 14%
Tng trng huy ng 62% 37% 26% 29% -4% 43% 23% 33% -12% 39% 25% 12%
Tng trng tng ti sn 59% 27% 26% 46% -7% 7% 22% 37% -37% 51% 25% 9%
Tng trng VCSH 29% 9% 33% 33% 4% -8% 13% 5% 7% 45% 57% 18%
Tng trng LNST 56% 24% 9% 11% 11% -65% 6% 37% -71% 19% 83% -1%
Kh nng thanh khon
T l cho vay/tin gi 74% 66% 63% 105% 107% 89% 82% 72% 82% 114% 114% 116%
Ngun: BSC tng hp
RI RO
1. Ri ro v m: Nm 2013 c nh gi l mt nm kh khn vi ngnh ngn hng do tnh
hnh kinh t thi gian qua kh m m nn p lc n xu ngy cng gia tng. Bn cnh
cc chnh sch v m s nh hng ng k ti hot ng tn dng, huy ng do nh
hng ng k ti li nhun ngn hng.
2. Cnh tranh gay gt trong ngnh: Vit Nam hin c 39 Ngn hng trong nc, 50 chi
nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi, 4 ngn hng lin doanh v 5 ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi.
Do , thi gian ti MBB khng ch cnh tranh vi cc ngn hng ni a c tng ti sn ln
m cn cnh tranh vi nhm cc ngn hng nc ngoi c nhiu kinh nghim v qun l iu
hnh.
3. Ri ro pha long c phiu: MBB vn c k hoch tng vn iu l trong nm nay nn ri
ro t pha long gi c phiu l kh trnh khi.
QUAN IM U T



NH GI
MBB l ngn hng ln v c th hot ng ca t chc ti chnh trung gian nn vic phn
tch v nh gi MBB kh phc tp, khng c thng tin gi nh cho phng php nh
gi chit khu dng tin. Nhm nh gi mc hp l ca gi c phiu MBB trong tng

Bo co phn tch Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i - MBB



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Quan im u t:
Chng ti nh gi MBB l ngn hng c kt qu kinh doanh tt, tim nng tng trng trong
thi gian ti vn cn kh tt. Gi c phiu MBB t bin ng mnh, t chu nh hng bi din
bin ton th trng. Bn cnh , t l tr c tc ca MBB cng kh cao (trung bnh ti thiu
15%/nm trong nhng nm va qua) nn BSC cho rng MBB l c phiu phng th kh tt
thch hp vi u t trung v di hn, khng thch hp vi u t trong ngn hn:
- Gi mua: 12.500 13.000 VND/CP
- Gi bn k vng: Ty vo din bin th trng v chin lc u t m nh u t a ra
quyt nh nhng BSC cho rng nu th trng din bin tt gi c phiu MBB c th t
14.000 15.000VND/CP
- K u t: t 3- 6 thng.

Vi gi 13.100 hin ti BSC cho
rng nh u t nn:
- Bn mc 13.500 13.800 nu
th trng chung cha c thng
tin h tr
- Mua mc gi 12.500 13.000
- Gi k vng: 14.000 15.000
VND/CP
- K u t: 3 6 thng
quan vi iu kin th trng chng khon hin ti, chng ti la chn phng php so snh
P/E v P/B nh gi c phiu MBB
1. Phng php so snh P/E
H s P/E ngnh ti ngy 28/2/2013 l 11.xx
S c phiu lu hnh cui k l 1.062.500.000CP, EPS t l 2.175 /CP.
Gi hp l trn mt c phn l 23.925 ng/CP.
2. Phng php so snh P/B
H s P/B ngnh ti ngy 28/2/2013 l 1.43
S c phiu lu hnh cui k l 1.062.500.000CP, Book value ca doanh nghip l 12.107
/CP.
Gi hp l trn mt c phn l 17.313 ng/CP.

Kt hp c hai phng php P/E, P/B vi gi nh 50/50 cho mi phng php, chng ti k
vng gi hp l c phiu MB s mc: 20.619 ng/CP.

PHN TCH K THUT


Theo th k thut tun: MBB hin ang giao dch ti khu vc h tr kh mnh l tp hp
ca: ng h tr MA50 v gn st khu vc MA20 (Bollinger band mid-line), v ng trend-
line tng gi t cui thng 11.2012. Cy nn tun u thng 11 vi khi lng tng vt ln
gn 18 triu c v bin gi tng mnh ln 7.7% hin ang h tr cho MBB mc gi 15.
Vic giao dch tr li chn cy nn sau kh nhiu tun l du hiu khng thc s tch cc. Gi
ng ca tun ca MBB thp hn chn cy nn (12.9) l du hiu suy yu ca tng. Thanh
khon gim dn cng vi gi gim cha cho du hiu tng tr li. Mc h tr tip theo ca
MBB nm khu vc 12.5 +/-0.2.
Ngn hn, vic rt khi mc 13.5 sau hn 5 tun giao dch trn mc ny l kh xu. y l
mc cn trong ngn hn i vi cc nhp hi phc ca MBB. C th cn nhc bn MBB
mc khu vc 13.5-13.8 a qui m danh mc v mc hp l nu th trng chung cha
c nhiu s h tr t thng tin v m hoc ri ro ca c danh mc vn mc cao. mc gi
hin ti vic bn cn cn nhc, do gi MBB ang trong khu vc h tr kh mnh xt trn
quan im k thut.

Bo co phn tch Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i - MBB



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CNG TY CHNG KHON NHT&PT VIT NAM



B PHN PHN TCH C BN


Trn Thng Long
Nguyn Tun Anh
Trn Anh Tun
Nguyn Thanh Hoa
Phm Th Thu Hng
Trn Th Bch Nhung


Khuyn co s dng:
Min trch chung: Bn bo co ny ca Cng ty Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC),
ch cung cp nhng thng tin chung v phn tch v ngnh v doanh nghip. Bo co ny khng c xy dng
cung cp theo yu cu ca bt k t chc hay c nhn ring l no hoc cc quyt nh mua bn, nm gi
chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng cc thng tin, phn tch, bnh lun ca Bn bo co nh l ngun tham
kho trc khi a ra nhng quyt nh u t cho ring mnh. Mi thng tin, nhn nh v d bo v quan im
trong bo co ny c da trn nhng ngun d liu ng tin cy. Tuy nhin Cng ty Chng khon Ngn hng
u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC) khng m bo rng cc ngun thng tin ny l hon ton chnh xc v
khng chu bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo co
ny, cng nh khng chu trch nhim v nhng thit hi i vi vic s dng ton b hay mt phn ni dung ca
bn bo co ny. Mi quan im cng nh nhn nh c cp trong bo co ny da trn s cn nhc cn
trng, cng minh v hp l nht trong hin ti. Tuy nhin nhng quan im, nhn nh ny c th thay i m
khng cn bo trc.
Xung t li ch: BSC c th s dng cc nghin cu trong bo co ny cho hot ng mua bn chng khon t
doanh, c th giao dch cho chnh cng ty theo nhng khuyn ngh u t trong bo co ny v cng c th tham
gia vo cc giao dch chng khon tri ngc vi kin t vn v quan im th hin trong bo co ny.

Bn quyn ca Cng ty chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC), 2009.


Cng ty Chng khon BIDV (BSC)
Bn bo co ny c bn quyn v l ti sn ca Cng ty Chng khon Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam
(BSC). Mi hnh vi sao chp, sa i, in n m khng c s ng ca BSC u l tri lut.
BSC Tr s chnh
Tng 1,10,11 BIDV Tower, 35 Hng Vi, H Ni
Tel: 84 4 39352722
Fax: 84 4 22200669
Website: www.bsc.com.vn

Chi nhnh BSC H Ch Minh
Tng 9 146 Nguyn Cng Tr
Qun 1, Tp. H Ch Minh
Tel: 84 8 3 8128508
Fax: 84 8 3 8128510