,

......................................................................................................................................................... 2
....................................................................................................................................................... 2
........................................................................... 3
. , 2009-2010 ............................................................... 4
1. . .................................................................................................................... 4
- . ................................................................................................................................ 4
- . ............................................................................................................................ 5
, - ........................................................................................................... 5
.................................................................................................................... 5
. ..................................................................................................................... 6
, , . ............................................................................................................... 6
. ............................................................................................ 7
. ..................................................................................................................................... 8
, , . .............................................................................................................. 10
6. ....................................................................................................................................... 11
8. ........................................................................................................ 13
. , 2011-2013 .................................. 14
, - . ....................................................................................................... 14
..................................................................................................................................................... 14
, . ............................................................................................................................ 16
........................................................................................................................................... 17
6. . ...................................................................... 17


1 , 2006-2010** ........................................................................ 5
2 - ................................................ 9
3. , - ..................................................................... 9
4 , , , .................................... 11
5 , . ........................................................................................ 13
6 , . ...........Error! Bookmark not defined.
7 , , ................................ 17

1. ...................................................................................................... 4
2 , 2007-2010* ................. 7
3 , 2010 , ............................................................. 7
4 , 2010 , , . ........................................ 8
5 ....................................... 12
6 ........................................ 12
7 , 2010*-2013** ...................................................................... 15
8 , 2010*-2013** ....................................................................... 16
9 , , 2010*-2013** .............................................. 16

2008

2009*

2010**

2011**

2012**

2013**

- //

8.9

-1.6

7.5

8.2

7.8

20.8

5.8

1.5

-1.7

4.3

3.2

2.6

-1.4

-1.9

14.2

9.3

7.9

50.7

16.6

2.0

8.3

8.9

9.3

11.1

/. /

2263.7

2234.5

2548.6

2856.1

3180.3

3978.6

/./
.

1936.0

1550.9

1772.3

1987.5

2216.3

2782.2

22.1

4.2

7.8

7.1

8.6

8.1

-710.0

-228.7

-356.3

-686.0

-473.0

1877.3

-13.8

-5.4

-7.3

-12.2

-7.4

23.0

2534.5

1902.6

2633.6

3170.2

3714.8

5799.8

30.1

-24.9

38.4

20.4

17.2

56.1

3244.5

2131.3

2989.9

3856.2

4187.8

3922.5

/
./
--

. p

. p
(
.)

57.4

-34.3

40.3

29.0

8.6

-6.3

623.9

1099.7

1936.3

3090.7

4710.9

8267.9

- 7

10.0

26.8

33.7

41.7

58.5

109.6

3622.7

3564.3

3832.3

4146.49

4469.16

5396.54

6019.8

6055.8

7043.1

8047.5

9140.8

11675.3

1267.51

1442.8

1444.0

1433.0

1432.0

1429.0

1169.26

1440.8

1438.0

1437.0

1435.0

1430.0

2659.3

2710.1

2763.5

2817.6

2874.2

2934.6

2.8

3.5

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

5148.4

4203.2

4897.9

5600.2

6369.9

8164.5

2005 p.
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p. /./
. /1
=/
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=/
.

. , 2009-2010
1. .
2009 1.

,
.
,


.
1.
2008

2009

2010*

2011*

3.0

-0.8

3.9

4.3

0.5

-3.2

2.1

2.4

0.4

-2.5

2.7

2.4

0.6

-3.9

1.0

1.6

-1.2

-5.3

1.7

2.2

1.7

-1.2

4.8

4.7

5.6

-9.0

3.6

3.4

9.6

8.7

10.0

9.7

7.3

5.6

7.7

7.8

: 1 , 2010 1

- . 2009 2 8
15 . - 2008 5.6

2009 .
, ,
.
, -
1
2

World economic Outlook Update, January 26, 2010, IMF, ttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/01/

China post, official newspaper, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/europe/2010/02/02/243267/Russian-economy.htm

 . -
, 2009 16.4 ,
, 13.9 , ,
15.4 . - 3
, 2010 1.3
58 . 3.5
2010 .
- .
2009 - 8.7
. 4
2010
,
. , 2009
, ,
.

, - .
2010 , - 7043.1 ,
3832.3 7.5 .
- . -
,
. - , 2009 44.0
,
, . 2010
,
1.7 .
1 , 2006-2010**

3
4

http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/macro/prognoz/prog2010
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Symbol=CNY

 . 2005-2009 3.8
. , , , ,
. 2010 ,
, ,
2009 14.2
.
, , .

,
.

,
. 2006

,
, .
2009 35.43 .

 2 , 2007-2010*

2007

2008

2009

2010*

, .

8814.6

9807.4

13163.9

15818.39

, .

537.7

525.3

533.1

586.41

17472.5

15183.8

9803.3

10293.47

2010 ,
20.1 5.
.
2010 ,
. Bloomberg- 2010 3

3 , 2010 ,
I

II

III

IV

ANZ Banking Group

4133

4299

4519

4740

Westpac Banking Corp

6225

5600

5800

5900

JP Morgan Chase & Co

7350

8000

6800

6250

Societe Generale

7197

7443

7525

7573

Standard Chartered Bank

5700

6200

6500

Deutsche Bank AG

7165

6614

6063

6614

Landesbank Baden-Wuertte

6500

6200

6600

6900

Commerzbank AG

6500

6200

6500

6800

Danske Bank

7400

7500

7700

7900

BMO Capital Markets Corp

7496

7496

7055

7055

UniCredit Markets & Invest

322

313

304

295

Barclays PLC

7900

7400

6200

6000

Bloomberg's

6384

6241

6097

6182

Max

7900

8000

7700

7900

Min

322

313

304

295

6097 . . 2010
6859 . . 2010 1000
. .
5

/2010.02.24/,

 2 1450 .
4 880 ., 1125 .
.
4 , 2010 , , .
I

II

III

IV

ANZ Banking Group

925

930

910

880

Erste Bank AG/Austria

1150

1300

1180

1382

Scotia Capital Inc

900

Westpac Banking Corp

1040

1010

1008

1006

JP Morgan Chase & Co

1250

1400

1300

1200

Societe Generale

1290

1450

1430

1380

BNP Paribas

1100

1040

1020

1040

Standard Chartered Bank

1075

1025

1200

Deutsche Bank AG

1125

1150

1150

1175

Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg

1100

1100

1150

1250

Prestige Economics LLC

1125

1150

1200

1200

Commerzbank AG

1100

1000

1050

1100

Bloomberg-

1127

1129

1158

1179

Max

1290

1450

1430

1382

Min

900

930

910

880

1: Bloomberg, (22/02/2010)

2000 .
- , ,
,
.
.

 . , 2009 2054.6
- 32.6 . 2010

2 -

,
-
45

3000
40.2

40
36.6

35
30

35.4
2170.4

30.1

32.6
2054.6

1851.2

25

2426.8
33.8

2000
1500

1360.4

20

2500

1000

837.9

500

15
10

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010*

2426.82 , -
33.8 .
. ,
2009 2418.8 - 38.4 . 2010
3. , -
,
-

3000
2500

40.2

38

38.8

30

27.5

1500

40
35

33.3

2000

2466.8

1000
500

38.4

45

2418.8

2785.3

25
20

1749.2

15

1237

10

764.6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010*

, 2785.3
- 38.8 .

 . 2006
2008 ,

2009 . 2009
195.1 , 364.2
- 3.1 , -
5.8 . 2010 228.6
,

358.5

- 3.2 , - 5.0 .
, , .
2009 2880.0
, 610.0 26.9
606.1 37.4 .
. 2009 12 ,
0.7 , 4.2 .
0.2 , 1.9

0.2 , 4.1 . 2010
7.8
, .
.
,
, .
10 6 ,
.
.
1
. 26.9
.

Morgan stainley-Global economic forum

10

 4 , , ,
25

1438.0
1444

2010*

1437.2
1442.84

2009

22.1

2008

1165.8
1267.5

15.1

1170.4
4.21170.0

2007
0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

15
10

7.8
1200.0

20

1400.0

5
0
1600.0

. / /
. / /
/ /

, . 2009 12
1442.84 175.3 (13.8 )- . 2010
. 1438
, ,
,

, ,
.
6.
M 2009 118 ,
4033.9 . 2008 1745.1 .
30.2 228.7 .
481.3 . 3.1 .
2009
,
, .
. 1990-
, 46
2000-2005 47
11

 , , 2006-2009 70
.
5

1992-1999
24%
22%
16%
6%
6%
6%
5%
85%

2000-2005
47%
22%
3%
6%
3%
5%
2%
90%

2006-2009
70%
9%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
94%

2000 - ,
2006-2009
2 . 1990
, . -
2000 , .
1990 ,
.
6

1992-1999
41%
14%
12%
5%
5%
4%
2%
83%

2000-2005
34%
24%
8%
8%
2%
4%
4%
84%

2006-2009
37%
27%
6%
6%
3%
3%
2%
85%

2010 4838.7
. , 2009 804.7 . 20.0 .
143.5 . .
. 2009 1003
465 31.7 .
97.1 , , ,
, , , ,
, , , ,

12

 . 2010 2633.6 .
38.4

5 , .

3244.5

3500.0
3000.0

2491.1

2500.0

2061.8

2131.3

2534.5

2347.6

2000.0
1947.5

1485.6

1500.0

1902.6

1542.8

1000.0
500.0

57.2
-114.4

0.0
-500.0

2006

2007

-710.1

2008

-143.5

-228.7

2009

2010*

-1000.0

, , ,
.
. 2009 3216
669 17.6 .
60 , , ,
, , , , , , ,
, . , ,
, 100 . 2010 2989.9
..
, .
8.
. 2009 12
1145.3 . , 28 7
. 508.0

13

. (79.7 )- . 2010 1936.3

. .

. , 2011-2013

, - .
,

2011-2013 7.5-20.8 (2013 ) .
, ,

7. , , , , ,
. ,
, ,

. ,
, ,
. ,
.8
,
,
, , ,
. 2013
. 2013

,
.
.
7
8

, , , (2010.03.04)
Rostow, stages for development, A.P.Thirlwall Growth and development

14

 , ,
. Westpac Banking
4 2013 9000 .
Sanford 4000
.
7 , 2010*-2013**
2010*

2011**

2012**

2013**

Sanford C Bernstein & Co Inc

4000

4000

ANZ Banking Group

4422

5166

5221

Westpac Banking Corp

5881

6606

6919

WTB Capital PLC

7275

8818

9259

9039

National Australia Bank

8316

JP Morgan Chase & Co

7100

6500

6500

6500

Societe Generale

7435

7600

7850

8150

Deutsche Bank AG

6614

7718

5516

6283

Standard Chartered Bank

6225

Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg

6550

Commerzbank AG

6500

7250

Danske Bank A/S

Mean

7625

8250

6859.00

7225.00

7431.00

6894.00

4422

2 Bloombergs assumption, 2010.03.04

1000 .
4 . .

.
,
. 1100 .
2189 .
. .

.
.

15

 8 , 2010*-2013**
2010

2011

2012

2013

916

804

734

TD Newscrest Inc

1100

1100

1000

Erste Bank AG/Austria

1552

1650

2300

2500

Scotia Capital Inc

1100

1250

1000

900

Westpac Banking Corp

1016

1013

1035

WTB Capital PLC

1025

1050

1100

1100

National Australia Bank

1223

JP Morgan Chase & Co

1288

1225

1100

1000

Societe Generale

1388

1400

1380

1350

Standard Chartered Bank

1140

Deutsche Bank AG

1150

1250

1000

800

Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg

1150

1156

1126

1143

Mean

1125

1159

1115

1113

ANZ Banking Group

718

, .

7-8

9 , , 2010*-2013**
1420

1425

1430

1435

1440

1445

1450

8.2
8

1429.0
1430.0

7.8

1435.0
1432.0

7.6
7.4

1437.0
1433.0

7.2
7

7.1

7.8

8.0

1438

6.8

1444

8.1

6.6
2010*

2011**

/ /
. / /

2012**

2013**

. / /

,
.

16

 .
2011-2013 ,
.
,
, ,

6 , ,

80.0

10000.0
9000.0

60.0

8809.6

7000.0

40.0
6738.4

6000.0

5779.0

20.0

0.0

8000.0

4009.3

2007

5000.0
4838.7

5707.7

2010*

2011**

4033.9

2008

2009

4000.0
2012**

2013**

3000.0
2000.0

-20.0

1000.0
-40.0

0.0

58.1-67.3

. ,
9
.
6. .
2013 ,
.
,
,
9

, /2010.02.25/

17


,
.

18