Ch s P/E

y l ch s phn nh mi quan h gia th gi (gi th trung c phiu hin hnh)

c phiu vi lqi nhuqn sau thu trong mt nm ca cng ty.
Ly v d t bo co ti chnh ca Ngn hng A' Chu (ACB). Lqi nhuqn sau thu nm
1999 ca ACB l 51.564 triu dng, chia cho tng s c phiu duqc: 151,025 dng.
Gi tha thuqn mua bn c phiu ACB (trn th trung khng chnh thc) mi dy l
1,7 triu dng, vqy P/E ca ACB bng 1.700.000 : 151,025 = 11,25 ln.
Ch s ny duqc dng kh ph bin nhu mt cng c d nh du tu xem xt mnh qua
chng khon r hay dt. P/E cng cao ngha l chng khon mua cng cao v nguqc
lqi. Mqt khc, nh du tu c th mua vi P/E gi cao d hy vng trong tuong lai lqi
nhuqn cng ty cao th P/E lc d lqi thp nhu v d dui dy: lqi nhuqn nm 1999 ca
mt cng ty bnh ko l 12,7 t , P/E l 3,4 ; lqi nhuqn 2000 l 14,5 t , P/E l 2,9 .
Nh du tu mua c phiu vi P/E l 3,4 ln so vi lqi nhuqn l 12,7 t ca nm 1999.
Nu nm 2000 lqi nhuqn l 14,5 t th nh du tu mua vi P/E ch cn 2,9 ln do lqi
nhuqn ca cng ty d tng ln v nu nm 2001 lqi nhuqn tng na th lc ny P/E
s gim na, khi d nh du tu ny mun bn ra cho nh du tu khc v khi nhn vo
th thy tqi sao nh du tu truc mua P/E 3,4 ln th mnh cng mua 3,4 ln duqc
ch. Th l hon tt thuong v! Nh du tu truc bn duqc P/E l 3,4 ln (hoqc cao
hon nu ngui mua mi chp nhqn) so lqi nhuqn nm 2000 th c ngha l h bn cao
hon so vi gi m h mua vo nm 1999 .
Vn d l P/E bao nhiu ln th hnh thnh cuc choi ny, dy c hai trung hqp
xy ra:
- Nu nh du tu chp nhqn P/E cao th ri ro c th cao do mua gi cao so vi lqi
nhuqn cng ty dqt duqc.
- Mqt khc mua P/E cao cng c th ri ro thp, v lc d cng ty mua vo c th l
cng ty c gi nhu cng ty Coca Cola hay Hng khng Vit Nam chng hqn, cc cng
ty ny pht trin rt n dnh .
T d mi hnh thnh mt bin d ch s P/E cho tng loqi cng ty, tng lnh vc
cng nghip v tng mi trung ca th trung. Theo xu hung trn th trung chng
khon cc nuc trn Th gii th lnh vc sau dy thung chp nhqn cc ch s P/E
cao (khng k cc tqp don hng mqnh): ngn hng, ti chnh chng khon, cng
ngh tin hc, vin thng, cng ngh sinh hc, cc ngnh sn xut cng nghip k
thuqt cao.
Hin nay, cc chuyn vin ti chnh Vit Nam nhqn dnh P/E tqi th trung Vit Nam
t 8 - 15 ln, diu d c ngha lnh vc ti chnh ngn hng hoqc cc cng ty c uy tn
th P/E tqi th trung Vit Nam t 10 - 15 ln v nhng lnh vc khc c th dui 10.
Tuy nhin, bqn hy c ngh xem, nu cng ty khng c lqi nhuqn diu d c ngha l
lqi nhuqn m, th th gi c phiu chia cho lqi nhuqn trong mt nm l con s m th
lm sao m c ch s P/E duqc .
Do d, P/E ch l mt s tuong di, nh du tu cng cn phi dnh gi thm cc ch
s ti chnh khc c lin quan mang tnh k thuqt nhiu hon.
Vqy gia h s P/E v tc d tng trung ca DN c quan h vi nhau hay khng?
Chng c quan h nhu th no v c th gii thch tqi sao chng ta lqi c th quyt
dnh du tu vo nhng c phiu c h s P/E cao thqm ch l rt cao. Phn sau ca
bi vit s tr li c th cho cu hi ny.
Quan h gia P/E v tc d tng trung lqi nhuqn G (Growth)
Gi s bqn c 100.000 dng d du tu v dang dng truc ba s la chn: l NKD,
SAM v REE vi cc thng s nhu dui dy: (xem bng 2) Nu ch so snh h s P/E
ca cc cng ty ta c th di dn ngay kt luqn l: NKD hp dn nht d du tu (h s
P/E thp nht), tip dn l SAM v cui cng l REE.
Nu by gi ta dua thm thng s l tc d tng trung d kin, vi 100.000 dng
vn du tu nm nay th lqi nhuqn d kin nm ti duqc th hin trong bng sau:
(xem bng 3).
Cch tnh c th nhu sau :
- S c phiu thu duqc = S tin du tu (100.000 d)/Gi hin tqi ca mt c phiu.
- Lqi nhuqn d kin nm 2005 = Lqi nhuqn nm 2004 x (1 + tc d tng trung G).
- Tng lqi nhuqn d kin thu duqc = Tng s c phiu x lqi nhuqn d kin ca mt c
phiu.
Tng hqp s liu, ta c bng sau: (bng 1)
PEG duqc tnh bng:
PEG = Price/Earning/Growth (PEG = Th gi/thu nhqp bnh qun 4 qu ca mt c
phiu/tc d tng trung d kin).
Vqy da vo bng trn nhqn thy, cng vi 100.000 dng du tu ban du ngy hm
nay, sau mt nm, gi s tnh hnh din ra theo dng d bo ca tc gi, th r rng
nu du tu vo NKD s dem lqi nhiu lqi nhuqn nht vi (15.712 dng), sau d dn
REE (12.182 dng) v cui cng l SAM (11.877 dng). Kt qu ny c s do nguqc
mt cht vi kt qu pha trn nu ta ch da vo P/E (NKD vn hp dn nht, nhung
v tr th hai lqi dnh cho REE, ch khng phi l SAM v SAM mc hp dn thp
nht). Tuy nhin, nu bqn d dn h s PEG trn s thy, PEG ca NKD l thp
nht, song dn REE v cui cng l SAM. Nu tip tc tnh cho cc nm tip theo, cc
bqn s nhqn thy l lqi nhuqn thu duqc gia cc cng ty c PEG khc nhau l c
chnh lch dng k. iu d ph hqp vi nhqn dnh: du tu vo cng ty c PEG nh
s dem lqi nhiu lqi nhuqn hon, hay ni cch khc cng ty c PEG nh hon th s hp
dn hon.
Qua phn tch trn c th thy, h s P/E khng phi l ch tiu duy nht v chnh
xc gip ta bit c phiu no hp dn hon, m cn phi kt hqp vi tc d tng
trung d kin ca cng ty. i vi du tu tng trung, h s PEG cng thp th c
phiu d cng hp dn. H s PEG thp hon 1 l thc s hp dn. Nu PEG = 1 diu
d chng t, gi tr cng ty d duqc phn nh dy d vo gi tr c phiu. C phiu c
P/E ln hon mc P/E ca th trung vn dng duqc du tu nu PEG ca n nh hon
hoqc bng 1.
Phn tch EPS
EPS c th hiu don gin l mt ch s nhm dnh gi bn thn cng ty tqo kh nng
sinh li t dng vn ca c dng dng gp. y l ch s dnh gi trc tip phn nh
hon ton ni tqi ca cng ty v kh nng tqo ra lqi nhuqn rng (lqi nhuqn c th
dng chi tr cho c dng) trn mt c phn m c dng dng gp vn ch khng t
vic ln hay xung gi c phiu cng ty trn th trung chng khon. Ch s EPS cng
cao th cng ty tqo ra lqi nhuqn c dng cng ln v nguqc lqi. V d, nu dqt 5.000
dng trn mt c phn th diu d c ngha l cng ty tqo ra lqi nhuqn l 5% trn vn
gp c dng (gi s mnh gi mt c phn l 100.000 dng).
Nhu vqy, nu mt cng ty ch dqt EPS khong 8 - 9% mt nm th ch bng li sut
tin gi ngn hng th bqn c nn mua khng, d l diu bqn phi cn nhc truc khi
quyt dnh du tu. Nu bqn mua th c hai trung hqp xy ra:
- Mt l bqn bit v hy vng l cng ty trong thi gian ti c th tng lqi nhuqn do
nhiu l do nhu cng ty dang m rng th trung, dua vo th trung sn phm mi,
nng cp b my qun l dqt hiu qu hon... y l mt quyt dnh phn nh thc t
cng ty.
- Hai l bqn thy rng trn th trung chng khon, tm l cc nh du tu khc quan
tm nhiu dn vic mua c phiu cng ty ny c th c l do l cng ty duqc ua
chung, c ngnh ngh kinh doanh hqp thi v nhu con st ca cng ty dot com
( cng ty nternet) trn th gii vqy .
Ni tm lqi, nu cng ty dqt duqc mc EPS t 15% - 35 % l t l tuong di ph bin
tqi Vit Nam, n phn nh tnh n dnh trong hoqt dng kinh doanh v gi vn chp
nhqn duqc ca th trung vn. V d cc cng ty c phn dui dy :
Cng Ty( Nm 1999 ) EPS ( dng ) EPS ( dng )
Ngn hng ABC 151.000 15,1
Cty CP Vn ha Phuong Nam 24.500 24,5
Cty Bnh ko BBCA 50.800 50,8
Cty CP SACM 21.000 21,0
Cty CP REE 5.300 5,3
nh gi t l RE
Lm th no nh du tu dnh gi duqc kh nng sinh lqi ca dng vn s hu c
dng d c th thy duqc mt dng vn tqo kh nng bao nhiu dng li v t l sinh
li ca n d quyt dnh du tu cng ty ny m khng du tu vo cng ty khc c
cng ngnh ngh?.
Chng ta d tm hiu ch s EPS, c lin quan mqt thit dn vic xc dnh kh nng
sinh li ca cng ty trn mt c phn m nh du tu mua vo. Ch s ny chua phn
nh mt cch chnh xc kh nng sinh li t ton b vn s hu c dng m vn ny
ngoi vn gp c dng dui dqng c phn cn bao gm c th l lqi nhuqn d lqi cc
qu pht trin kinh doanh, chnh lch pht hnh... Phn nh kh chnh xc cc kh
nng d chnh l RE (return on equity) tr gi biu th bng t l phn trm (%).
Tr gi RE duqc tnh bng cch ly lqi nhuqn rng (net income) theo nin d k ton
(t 1 thng 1 dn 31 thng 12) sau khi d tr c tc cho c phn uu di nhqn c tc
nhung truc khi chi tr c tc cho c phn thung chia cho ton b vn s hu ch,
tc ti sn rng (xin xem bi ch s NAV l g?) vo lc du nin d k ton.
Ch s ny l thuc do chnh xc nht d bqn dnh gi mt dng vn ca c dng b
ra v tch lu duqc (c th lqi nhuqn d lqi) tqo ra bao nhiu dng li. T d nh du
tu c co s tham kho khi quyt dnh mua cng ty hay cng ty c cng ngnh
ngh vi nhau.
T l RE cng cao chng t cng ty s dng hiu qu dng vn ca c dng, diu
ny c ngha cng ty cn di mt cch hi ho gia dng vn c dng vi dng vn
vay (v nu vay nhiu th phi tr li vay lm gim lqi nhuqn) d khai thc lqi th
cqnh tranh ca mnh trn th trung d tng doanh thu, tng lqi nhuqn.
T l ny gip cho nh du tu dnh gi cng ty gc d nhu sau:
Khi cng ty ch dqt t l RE tuong duong vi li vay ngn hng (khong
10%/nm) th mc d dnh gi tuong di, bqn hy xem lqi kh nng sinh li ca
cng ty ny v nu cng ty no cng ch sinh li mc ny th s khng c cng ty
no di vay ngn hng v lqi nhuqn t vn vay ch d d tr li vay ngn hng. Tt
nhin dy ch dqt trung hqp cng ty chua vay ngn hng.
Khi cng ty dqt t l RE cao hon li vay ngn hng th bqn nn tm hiu xem cng
ty d vay ngn hng v khai thc ht lqi th cqnh tranh trn th trung chua d c
th dnh gi cng ty c tim nng tng t l ny hay khng trong tuong lai. Nu cn
m rng duqc th phn th cn thm vn, vn ny c th vay v cng ty vn c th c
li sau khi tr li cho khong vn vay ny.
Tuy nhin, vay vn ngoi vic tr li cn phi tr gc cho nn nh hung rt nhiu
dn yu t thanh khon cng ty, v vqy cn di vn vay v vn c dng cng l bi
ton qun l ca cng ty.
Ngoi ra, t l ny cng gip cho nh du tu dnh gi cc cng ty trong cng mt
ngnh ngh d ra quyt dnh la chn du tu mt trong s cc cng ty c cng ngnh
ngh d, phuong thc la chn tt nhin vn l t l RE cao, v nhu d ni trn th
RE ca cng ty cng cao th c kh nng tng lqi th cqnh tranh cng mqnh, khi d
lqi th cqnh tranh ca cc cng ty khc s b gim xung.
Dui dy l bn dnh gi RE ca mt s cng ty:
Tn CT Ngnh ngh RE 1999 (%)
Sacombank Ngn hng 11,53%
Ngn hng TMCP Chu Ngn hng 13,95%
Procter Gamble (M) Hng tiu dng 32%
nilever Plc (Anh) Hng tiu dng 55%
Phn tch ch s ield d du tu chng khon
Ch s Current ield (T sut thu nhqp trn thi gi c phn) l mt cng c gip nh
du tu t quyt dnh cho mnh nn chn du tu vo doanh nghip no?...
Ch s Current ield (Hay ngui ta thung gi l ield) l g? y l ch s dng d
phn nh mi quan h gia c tc nh du tu nhqn duqc t cng ty vi gi c phiu
m nh du tu mua vo n l t l c tc m c dng nhqn duqc trn gi chng
khon m c dng d mua vo
- Phn tch mi quan h gia c tc nh du tu nhqn duqc t cng ty v gi nh du
tu mua c phiu, chng ta thy c hai trung hqp sau dy
+ Trung hqp 1: Nu nh du tu mua chng khon xong ri ch chng khon ln gi
d hung chnh lch gi l li vn (capital gain) th nh du tu s khng quan tm g
nhiu dn ield. Lc ny ield khng c ngh g thc s quan trng vi h so vi
cc ch s P/E, EPS nhu d d cqp trong bi truc
Trong trung hqp ny, cc nh du tu d phn tch mi quan h gia ield v EPS.
Nu ield thp, p cao th h hy vng cng ty s dng phn lqi nhuqn d ti du tu
tng lqi nhuqn cho cc nm tip theo gip P/E gim. Lc ny h d dng bn lqi c
phiu vi P/E cao d c li vn
+ Trung hqp 2: Nu nh du tu mua chng khon d du tu lu di (nhu d mua
lm ca) th tt nhin h s quan tm ti vic thu lqi nhuqn hng nm, hng qu. Lc
ny ch c c tc h thu duqc. Khi d ield l mc tiu chnh d h quan tm.
Khi cng ty chia c tc cao c ngh l khng cn s dng lqi nhuqn d lqi c th do:
cng ty s dng vn vay cng ty chua c k hoqch m rng sn xut hoqc th phn
cng ty d bo ho. Khi d lqi nhuqn khng duqc d don tng nhiu trong nm ti
dng ngha P/E khng gim nhiu dn dn vic cc nh du tu khng hy vng s
tng gi c phiu ca mnh trong tuong lai.
Thng thung lqi nhuqn thu duqc t c tc cng ty tr thp hon nhiu so vi lqi
nhuqn thu duqc t vic bn c phiu. V d nhu cng ty Co din lqnh (REE) t ngy
c phn ho dn nay c tc nh du tu nhqn duqc ch l 283% trn mnh gi c phn
(mt trm ngn dng) trong kh d tng gi c phiu l 1350% c ngha tng 4,7
ln. Do vqy di vi cc nh du tu chng khon trn th trung th diu quan tm duy
nht ca h ch l li vn c ngha trong qi hi c dng hng nm d quyt dnh
chia c tc th h thung b phiu khng chia c tc nhiu.
Ni tm lqi khi du tu bqn nn tm hiu v dnh gi ht cc loqi ch s phn tch d
c mt ci nhn tng th hon mi quan h ca cc ch s ny d ra quyt dnh du tu
cho chnh xc. K sau chng ti s gip bqn di su phn tch thm cc mi quan h
gia ti sn cng ty v ti sn c dng d bqn khng nhm ln gia ci b th bn
ngoi v ci bn cht ti sn thqt bn trong ca cng ty.
Ch s NAV (Net Asset value) l g? Cch tnh NAV v dnh gi ch s mt cch khch
quan
Ch s NAV c lin quan mqt thit dn vic xc dnh gi tr ti sn cng ty v ti sn
c dng. T d nh du tu s khng b nhm ln gia ci b th bn ngoi v ci bn
cht tai sn thqt bn trong ca cng ty.
Thng thung ngun vn cng ty cu thnh chnh bi ngun vn s hu ca c dng
v ngun vn vay. Cc ngun vn nay tqo cho cng ty cc ti sn nhu: my mc thit
b, nh xung... v cc ti sn luu dng khcphc v cho hoqt dng kinh doanh hng
ngy ca cng ty. Do d c lc cng ty c vn c dng (hay gi l vn diu l) thp
nhu ti sn th hin bn ngoi ln th chua chc d l ti sn hnh thnh t vn c
dng dng gp m c th mt phn t vn vay. Ngun vn s hu ca c dng duqc
gi l Gi tr ti sn thun ca cng ty, gi tr ny chnh l chnh l ch s NAV (Net
Asset Value).
Gi tr ti sn thun NAV bao gm: Vn c dng (vn diu l) vn hnh thnh t lqi
nhuqn d lqi. Vn chnh lch do pht hnh c phiu ra cng chng cao hon mnh gi
(Share Premlum) l trong hoqt dng kinh doanh v cc qu d tr pht trin d
phng.
Ngui ta thung s dng ch s NAV/Share (gi tr thun ca mi c phiu pht
hnh) d dnh gi tr c phiu trn s sch v gi c phiu mua vo ch s ny duqc
tnh bng cch ly tng gi tr vn s hu (tng ti sn tr cho bt c ti sn v hnh
no tr tt c nq v chng khon tri phiu c quyn di uu tin) chia cho tng s c
phn pht hnh.
Ch s ny gip cho nh du tu dnh gi cng ty khi du tu mt s kha cqnh nhu
sau:
- Gi s cng ty c phn mnh gi l 100.000 dng m NAV l 120.000 chng hqn th
c ngha l cng ty d tch lu vn d sn xut c th t ngun lqi nhuqn d lqi pht
hnh chnh lch... Nhu vqy nh du tu mua c phn vi gi 120.000 dng th h vn
mua dng vi gi tr thqt trn s sch ca n.
- Nu NAV l 120.000 dng nhung lqi nhuqn cng ty dqt duqc cao th nh du tu cng
c th mua c phiu vi gi cao hon NAV d mong lqi nhuqn gia tng khi d s c
chia c tc c tch lu v NAV s tip tc tng na trong thi gian ti.
- Nu NAV l 120.000 dng nhung cng ty vn dang l c ngha s tip tc gim NAV
th bqn c quyt mua vi 120.000 dng hay cao hon khng. y l quyt dnh kh
khn v ri ro nht n ph thuc nhiu vo vic dnh gi phn tch ca nh du tu v
cng ty nhiu kha cqnh thng tin chnh xc v cng ty tuong lai d quyt dnh.
dy ch c mt nguyn tc don gin m nh du tu chp nhqn du tu d l lqi nhuqn
cao th ri ro cao.
Ni tm lqi NAV l thuc do bo th nht d nh du tu quyt dnh mua c phiu ca
cng ty theo gi tr thc ca cng ty. Trong thc t diu ch trng nht vn l vn d
lqi nhuqn lun duqc dqt ln hng du v d l co s chnh d dnh gi kh nng
sinh li ca vic s dng dng vn ca cng ty.